Critical role of water conditions in the responses of autumn phenology of marsh wetlands to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau, housing 20% of China's wetlands, plays a vital role in the regional carbon cycle. Examining the phenological dynamics of wetland vegetation in response to climate change is crucial for understanding its impact on the ecosystem. Despite this importance, the specific effects of climate change on wetland vegetation phenology in this region remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated the influence of climate change on the end of the growing season (EOS) of marsh wetland vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau, utilizing satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and observational climate data. We observed that the regionally averaged EOS of marsh vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau was significantly (p < .05) delayed by 4.10 days/decade from 2001 to 2020. Warming preseason temperatures were found to be the primary driver behind the delay in the EOS of marsh vegetation, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation showed no significant impact. Interestingly, the responses of EOS to climate change varied spatially across the plateau, indicating a regulatory role for hydrological conditions in marsh phenology. In the humid and cold central regions, preseason daytime warming significantly delayed the EOS. However, areas with lower soil moisture exhibited a weaker or reversed delay effect, suggesting complex interplays between temperature, soil moisture, and EOS. Notably, in the arid southwestern regions of the plateau, increased preseason rainfall directly delayed the EOS, while higher daytime temperatures advanced it. Our results emphasize the critical role of hydrological conditions, specifically soil moisture, in shaping marsh EOS responses in different regions. Our findings underscore the need to incorporate hydrological factors into terrestrial ecosystem models, particularly in cold and dry regions, for accurate predictions of marsh vegetation phenological responses to climate change. This understanding is vital for informed conservation and management strategies in the face of current and future climate challenges.

Decadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has a short atmospheric lifetime ( ~ 12 years), so that emissions reductions will have a rapid impact on climate forcing. In megacities such as Los Angeles (LA), natural gas (NG) leakage is the primary atmospheric methane source. The magnitudes and trends of fugitive NG emissions are largely unknown and need to be quantified to verify compliance with emission reduction targets. Here we use atmospheric remote sensing data to show that, in contrast to the observed global increase in methane emissions, LA area emissions decreased during 2011-2020 at a mean rate of (-1.57 ± 0.41) %/yr. However, the NG utility calculations indicate a much larger negative emissions trend of -5.8 %/yr. The large difference between top-down and bottom-up trends reflects the uncertainties in estimating the achieved emissions reductions. Actions taken in LA can be a blueprint for COP28 and future efforts to reduce methane emissions.

Source Sector Mitigation of Solar Energy Generation Losses Attributable to Particulate Matter Pollution

Particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere and deposited on solar photovoltaic (PV) panels reduce PV energy generation. Reducing anthropogenic PM sources will therefore increase carbon-free energy generation and as a cobenefit will improve surface air quality. However, we lack a global understanding of the sectors that would be the most effective at achieving the necessary reductions in PM sources. Here we combine well-evaluated models of solar PV performance and atmospheric composition to show that deep cuts in air pollutant emissions from the residential, on-road, and energy sectors are the most effective approaches to mitigate PM-induced PV energy losses over East and South Asia, and the Tibetan Plateau, Central Asia, and the Arabian Peninsula, and Western Siberia, respectively. Using 2019 PV capacities as a baseline, we find that a 50% reduction in residential emissions would lead to an additional 10.3 TWh yr^-1 (US$878 million yr^-1) and 2.5 TWh yr^-1 (US$196 million yr^-1) produced in China and India, respectively.

Nocturnal survival of isoprene linked to formation of upper tropospheric organic aerosol

Isoprene is emitted mainly by terrestrial vegetation and is the dominant volatile organic compound (VOC) in Earth's atmosphere. It plays key roles in determining the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere and the formation of organic aerosol. Daytime infrared satellite observations of isoprene reported here broadly agree with emission inventories, but we found substantial differences in the locations and magnitudes of isoprene hotspots, consistent with a recent study. The corresponding nighttime infrared observations reveal unexpected hotspots over tropical South America, the Congo basin, and Southeast Asia. We used an atmospheric chemistry model to link these nighttime isoprene measurements to low-NO_x regions with high biogenic VOC emissions; at sunrise the remaining isoprene can lead to the production of epoxydiols and subsequently to the widespread seasonal production of organic aerosol in the tropical upper troposphere.

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ¹³C_CH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ¹³C_CH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ¹³C_CH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ¹³C_CH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ¹³C_CH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Phenology is the dominant control of methane emissions in a tropical non-forested wetland

Tropical wetlands are a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH₄), but their importance to the global CH₄ budget is uncertain due to a paucity of direct observations. Net wetland emissions result from complex interactions and co-variation between microbial production and oxidation in the soil, and transport to the atmosphere. Here we show that phenology is the overarching control of net CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere from a permanent, vegetated tropical swamp in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, and we find that vegetative processes modulate net CH₄ emissions at sub-daily to inter-annual timescales. Without considering the role played by papyrus on regulating the efflux of CH₄ to the atmosphere, the annual budget for the entire Okavango Delta, would be under- or over-estimated by a factor of two. Our measurements demonstrate the importance of including vegetative processes such as phenological cycles into wetlands emission budgets of CH₄.

Tropical wetlands are a significant but understudied source of methane. Here, methane emissions were measured over three years in a perennial tropical swamp in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, finding phenology was the overarching control of emissions.

The added value of satellite observations of methane forunderstanding the contemporary methane budget

Surface observations have recorded large and incompletely understood changes to atmospheric methane (CH₄) this century. However, their ability to reveal the responsible surface sources and sinks is limited by their geographical distribution, which is biased towards the northern midlatitudes. Data from Earth-orbiting satellites designed specifically to measure atmospheric CH₄ have been available since 2009 with the launch of the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We assess the added value of GOSAT to data collected by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which have been the lynchpin for knowledge about atmospheric CH₄ since the 1980s. To achieve that we use the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry transport model and an inverse method to infer a posteriori flux estimates from the NOAA and GOSAT data using common a priori emission inventories. We find the main benefit of GOSAT data is from its additional coverage over the tropics where we report large increases since the 2014/2016 El Niño, driven by biomass burning, biogenic emissions and energy production. We use data from the European TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument to show how better spatial coverage and resolution measurements allow us to quantify previously unattainable diffuse sources of CH₄, thereby opening up a new research frontier. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Publisher Correction: Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Spatiotemporal and probability variations of surface PM2.5 over China between 2013 and 2019 and the associated changes in health risks: An integrative observation and model analysis

We used statistical methods and the GEOS-Chem model to interpret the observed spatiotemporal and probability variations of surface PM_2.5 concentrations in China from December 2013 to November 2019, as well as to assess the drivers for the variations and the implications for health risks associated with long-term and short-term exposure to PM_2.5. Annual and seasonal PM_2.5 concentrations have decreased over most areas in China during the 6-year period. We decomposed the observed day-to-day variation of PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern Chinese cities and found that it showed two distinct major spatial modes, which fluctuated in strength seasonally. The first mode, characterized by most of Eastern China being in the same phase, was mainly associated with the regional ventilation of pollutants. The second mode showed a dipolar pattern between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Yangtze River Delta area and was more prominent in summer. Using model simulations, we showed that this dipole mode was chemically driven by the secondary formation of sulfate in summer. We further used a gamma distribution to succinctly interpret the changes in the probability distributions of PM_2.5. We found that the nationwide decline in seasonal mean PM_2.5 concentrations mainly reflected decreased occurrences of extremely high PM_2.5 concentrations, which was strongly driven by the interannual variation of meteorology. These changes in the annual means and probability distributions of PM_2.5 since December 2013 has led to significant decline of the estimated mortality risks associated with long-term and short-term PM_2.5-exposures. Regions that were less polluted saw the largest relative benefit per unit decrease in PM_2.5 concentration, due to the steepness of the exposure-response curve at the low-concentration end. Our integrated methodology effectively diagnosed the drivers of PM_2.5 variability and the associated health risks and can be used as part of the decision tool for PM_2.5 pollution management over China.

Net carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal

Tropical ecosystems are large carbon stores that are vulnerable to climate change. The sparseness of ground-based measurements has precluded verification of these ecosystems being a net annual source (+ve) or sink (−ve) of atmospheric carbon. We show that two independent satellite data sets of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), interpreted using independent models, are consistent with the land tropics being a net annual carbon emission of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$({\mathrm{median}}_{{\mathrm{minimum}}}^{{\mathrm{maximum}}})$$\end{document}(medianminimummaximum)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.03_{ - 0.20}^{ + 1.73}$$\end{document}1.03-0.20+1.73 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.60_{ + 1.39}^{ + 2.11}$$\end{document}1.60+1.39+2.11 petagrams (PgC) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. These pan-tropical estimates reflect unexpectedly large net emissions from tropical Africa of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.48_{ + 0.80}^{ + 1.95}$$\end{document}1.48+0.80+1.95 PgC in 2015 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.65_{ + 1.14}^{ + 2.42}$$\end{document}1.65+1.14+2.42 PgC in 2016. The largest carbon uptake is over the Congo basin, and the two loci of carbon emissions are over western Ethiopia and western tropical Africa, where there are large soil organic carbon stores and where there has been substantial land use change. These signals are present in the space-borne CO₂ record from 2009 onwards.

Tropical land ecosystems contain vast carbon reservoirs, but their influence on atmospheric CO₂ is poorly understood. Here the authors use new carbon-observing satellites to reveal a large emission source over northern tropical Africa, where there are large soil carbon stores and substantial land use changes.

Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Transport Uncertainty on CO2 Surface Flux Estimates

We show that transport differences between two commonly used global chemical transport models, GEOS-Chem and TM5, lead to systematic space-time differences in modeled distributions of carbon dioxide and sulfur hexafluoride. The distribution of differences suggests inconsistencies between the transport simulated by the models, most likely due to the representation of vertical motion. We further demonstrate that these transport differences result in systematic differences in surface CO2 flux estimated by a collection of global atmospheric inverse models using TM5 and GEOS-Chem and constrained by in situ and satellite observations. While the impact on inferred surface fluxes is most easily illustrated in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle of surface CO2 exchange, it is the annual carbon budgets that are particularly relevant for carbon cycle science and policy. We show that inverse model flux estimates for large zonal bands can have systematic biases of up to 1.7 PgC/year due to large-scale transport uncertainty. These uncertainties will propagate directly into analysis of the annual meridional CO2 flux gradient between the tropics and northern midlatitudes, a key metric for understanding the location, and more importantly the processes, responsible for the annual global carbon sink. The research suggests that variability among transport models remains the largest source of uncertainty across global flux inversion systems and highlights the importance both of using model ensembles and of using independent constraints to evaluate simulated transport.

The role of satellite observations in understanding the impact of El Niño on the carbon cycle: current capabilities and future opportunities

The 2015/2016 El Niño was the first major climate variation when there were a range of satellite observations that simultaneously observed land, ocean and atmospheric properties associated with the carbon cycle. These data are beginning to provide new insights into the varied responses of land ecosystems to El Niño, but we are far from fully exploiting the information embodied by these data. Here, we briefly review the atmospheric and terrestrial satellite data that are available to study the carbon cycle. We also outline recommendations for future research, particularly the closer integration of satellite data with forest biometric datasets that provide detailed information about carbon dynamics on a range of timescales.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO)

TEMPO was selected in 2012 by NASA as the first Earth Venture Instrument, for launch between 2018 and 2021. It will measure atmospheric pollution for greater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. TEMPO observes from Mexico City, Cuba, and the Bahamas to the Canadian oil sands, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, hourly and at high spatial resolution (~2.1 km N/S×4.4 km E/W at 36.5°N, 100°W). TEMPO provides a tropospheric measurement suite that includes the key elements of tropospheric air pollution chemistry, as well as contributing to carbon cycle knowledge. Measurements are made hourly from geostationary (GEO) orbit, to capture the high variability present in the diurnal cycle of emissions and chemistry that are unobservable from current low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites that measure once per day. The small product spatial footprint resolves pollution sources at sub-urban scale. Together, this temporal and spatial resolution improves emission inventories, monitors population exposure, and enables effective emission-control strategies. TEMPO takes advantage of a commercial GEO host spacecraft to provide a modest cost mission that measures the spectra required to retrieve ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), formaldehyde (H2CO), glyoxal (C2H2O2), bromine monoxide (BrO), IO (iodine monoxide),water vapor, aerosols, cloud parameters, ultraviolet radiation, and foliage properties. TEMPO thus measures the major elements, directly or by proxy, in the tropospheric O3 chemistry cycle. Multi-spectral observations provide sensitivity to O3 in the lowermost troposphere, substantially reducing uncertainty in air quality predictions. TEMPO quantifies and tracks the evolution of aerosol loading. It provides these near-real-time air quality products that will be made publicly available. TEMPO will launch at a prime time to be the North American component of the global geostationary constellation of pollution monitoring together with the European Sentinel-4 (S4) and Korean Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) instruments.

The impact of local surface changes in Borneo on atmospheric composition at wider spatial scales: coastal processes, land-use change and air quality

We present results from the OP3 campaign in Sabah during 2008 that allow us to study the impact of local emission changes over Borneo on atmospheric composition at the regional and wider scale. OP3 constituent data provide an important constraint on model performance. Treatment of boundary layer processes is highlighted as an important area of model uncertainty. Model studies of land-use change confirm earlier work, indicating that further changes to intensive oil palm agriculture in South East Asia, and the tropics in general, could have important impacts on air quality, with the biggest factor being the concomitant changes in NO(x) emissions. With the model scenarios used here, local increases in ozone of around 50 per cent could occur. We also report measurements of short-lived brominated compounds around Sabah suggesting that oceanic (and, especially, coastal) emission sources dominate locally. The concentration of bromine in short-lived halocarbons measured at the surface during OP3 amounted to about 7 ppt, setting an upper limit on the amount of these species that can reach the lower stratosphere.

Global methane emission estimates from ultraviolet irradiation of terrestrial plant foliage

*Several studies have reported in situ methane (CH(4)) emissions from vegetation foliage, but there remains considerable debate about its significance as a global source. Here, we report a study that evaluates the role of ultraviolet (UV) radiation-driven CH(4) emissions from foliar pectin as a global CH(4) source. *We combine a relationship for spectrally weighted CH(4) production from pectin with a global UV irradiation climatology model, satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) and air temperature data to estimate the potential global CH(4) emissions from vegetation foliage. *Our results suggest that global foliar CH(4) emissions from UV-irradiated pectin could account for 0.2-1.0 Tg yr(-1), of which 60% is from tropical latitudes, corresponding to < 0.2% of total CH(4) sources. *Our estimate is one to two orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates of global foliar CH(4) emissions. Recent studies have reported that pectin is not the only molecular source of UV-driven CH(4) emissions and that other environmental stresses may also generate CH(4). Consequently, further evaluation of such mechanisms of CH(4) generation is needed to confirm the contribution of foliage to the global CH(4) budget.

Large-scale controls of methanogenesis inferred from methane and gravity spaceborne data

Wetlands are the largest individual source of methane (CH4), but the magnitude and distribution of this source are poorly understood on continental scales. We isolated the wetland and rice paddy contributions to spaceborne CH4 measurements over 2003-2005 using satellite observations of gravity anomalies, a proxy for water-table depth Gamma, and surface temperature analyses TS. We find that tropical and higher-latitude CH4 variations are largely described by Gamma and TS variations, respectively. Our work suggests that tropical wetlands contribute 52 to 58% of global emissions, with the remainder coming from the extra-tropics, 2% of which is from Arctic latitudes. We estimate a 7% rise in wetland CH4 emissions over 2003-2007, due to warming of mid-latitude and Arctic wetland regions, which we find is consistent with recent changes in atmospheric CH4.

Quantifying sources and sinks of trace gases using space-borne measurements: current and future science

We have been observing the Earth's upper atmosphere from space for several decades, but only over the past decade has the necessary technology begun to match our desire to observe surface air pollutants and climate-relevant trace gases in the lower troposphere, where we live and breathe. A new generation of Earth-observing satellites, capable of probing the lower troposphere, are already orbiting hundreds of kilometres above the Earth's surface with several more ready for launch or in the planning stages. Consequently, this is one of the most exciting times for the Earth system scientists who study the countless current-day physical, chemical and biological interactions between the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere. First, I briefly review the theory behind measuring the atmosphere from space, and how these data can be used to infer surface sources and sinks of trace gases. I then present some of the science highlights associated with these data and how they can be used to improve fundamental understanding of the Earth's climate system. I conclude the paper by discussing the future role of satellite measurements of tropospheric trace gases in mitigating surface air pollution and carbon trading.

Interpreting satellite column observations of formaldehyde over tropical South America

Space-borne column measurements of formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield oxidation product of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), represent important constraints for quantifying net regional fluxes of VOCs. Here, we interpret observed distributions of HCHO columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) over tropical South America during 1997-2001. We present the first comparison of year-long in situ isoprene concentrations and fire-free GOME HCHO columns over a tropical ecosystem. GOME HCHO columns and in situ isoprene concentrations are elevated in the wet and dry seasons, with the highest values in the dry season. Previous analysis of the in situ data highlighted the possible role of drought in determining the elevated concentrations during the dry season, inferring the potential of HCHO columns to provide regional-scale constraints for estimating the role of drought on isoprene emissions. The agreement between the observed annual cycles of GOME HCHO columns and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer firecount data over the Amazon basin (correlations typically greater than 0.75 for a particular year) illustrates the potential of HCHO column to provide quantitative information about biomass burning emissions.

Mapping tropospheric ozone profiles from an airborne ultraviolet-visible spectrometer

We present a novel technique for retrieving ozone (O3) profiles and especially tropospheric O3 from airborne UV/visible spectrometer measurements. This technique utilizes radiance spectra from one down-looking and two up-looking (85 degrees and 75 degrees) directions, taking advantage of the O3 absorption structure in the Huggins (300-340-nm) and Chappuis (530-650-nm) bands. This technique is especially sensitive to tropospheric O3 below and < or =8 km above the aircraft with a vertical resolution of 2-6 km and is sensitive to lower and middle stratospheric O3 with a vertical resolution of 8-15 km. It can measure tropospheric O3 at spatial resolutions of 2 km x 2 km or higher and is therefore well suited for regional air-quality studies and validation of satellite measurements.