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Travis KR, Heald CL, Allen HM, Apel EC, Arnold SR, Blake DR, Brune WH, Chen X, Commane R, Crounse JD, Daube BC, Diskin GS, Elkins JW, Evans MJ, Hall SR, Hintsa EJ, Hornbrook RS, Kasibhatla PS, Kim MJ, Luo G, McKain K, Millet DB, Moore FL, Peischl J, Ryerson TB, Sherwen T, Thames AB, Ullmann K, Wang X, Wennberg PO, Wolfe GM, Yu F. Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations. Atmos Chem Phys 2020; 20:7753-7781. [PMID: 33688335 PMCID: PMC7939060 DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-7753-2020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half of the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July-August 2016 and January-February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NO y concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias, with the exception of wintertime NO y . The severe model overestimate of NO y during this period may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on sea-salt aerosols. Large uncertainties in these processes require further study to improve simulated NO y partitioning and removal in the troposphere, but preliminary tests suggest that their overall impact could marginally reduce the model bias in tropospheric OH. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by a comprehensive simulation of both biotic and abiotic ocean sources of VOCs. Additional sources of VOC reactivity in this region are difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOCs, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in both model acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean sources of VOCs in the model increases cOHRmod by 3% to 9% and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde, particularly in winter, but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require 100 Tg yr-1 of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine R. Travis
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Colette L. Heald
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Hannah M. Allen
- Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Eric C. Apel
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Stephen R. Arnold
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Donald R. Blake
- Department of Chemistry, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - William H. Brune
- Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Xin Chen
- University of Minnesota, Department of Soil, Water and Climate, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Róisín Commane
- Dept. of Earth & Environmental Sciences of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - John D. Crounse
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Bruce C. Daube
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - James W. Elkins
- Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Mathew J. Evans
- Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories (WACL), Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel R. Hall
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Eric J. Hintsa
- Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, CO, USA
| | - Rebecca S. Hornbrook
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Michelle J. Kim
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
- Division of Engineering and Applied Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Gan Luo
- Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University of Albany, Albany, NY, USA
| | - Kathryn McKain
- Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, CO, USA
| | - Dylan B. Millet
- University of Minnesota, Department of Soil, Water and Climate, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Fred L. Moore
- Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, CO, USA
| | - Jeffrey Peischl
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, CO, USA
- Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Thomas B. Ryerson
- Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Tomás Sherwen
- Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories (WACL), Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of York, York, UK
| | - Alexander B. Thames
- Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Kirk Ullmann
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Xuan Wang
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Paul O. Wennberg
- Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
- Division of Engineering and Applied Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Glenn M. Wolfe
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Fangqun Yu
- Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University of Albany, Albany, NY, USA
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Andela N, Morton DC, Giglio L, Chen Y, van der Werf GR, Kasibhatla PS, DeFries RS, Collatz GJ, Hantson S, Kloster S, Bachelet D, Forrest M, Lasslop G, Li F, Mangeon S, Melton JR, Yue C, Randerson JT. A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science 2018; 356:1356-1362. [PMID: 28663495 DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 211] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2016] [Accepted: 06/02/2017] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Andela
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. .,Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - D C Morton
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - L Giglio
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Y Chen
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - G R van der Werf
- Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - P S Kasibhatla
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - R S DeFries
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - G J Collatz
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - S Hantson
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - S Kloster
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20164 Hamburg, Germany
| | - D Bachelet
- Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - M Forrest
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - G Lasslop
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20164 Hamburg, Germany
| | - F Li
- International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - S Mangeon
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - J R Melton
- Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - C Yue
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement-Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (CEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - J T Randerson
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
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Austin KG, Kasibhatla PS, Urban DL, Stolle F, Vincent J. Reconciling oil palm expansion and climate change mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0127963. [PMID: 26011182 PMCID: PMC4444018 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2014] [Accepted: 04/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world's most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia's economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4-211.4 MtCO2 yr(-1) under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55-60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia's national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kemen G. Austin
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Prasad S. Kasibhatla
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Dean L. Urban
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Fred Stolle
- World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Jeffrey Vincent
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
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4
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Keppel-Aleks G, Wolf AS, Mu M, Doney SC, Morton DC, Kasibhatla PS, Miller JB, Dlugokencky EJ, Randerson JT. Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO 2. Global Biogeochem Cycles 2014; 28:1295-1310. [PMID: 26074665 PMCID: PMC4461073 DOI: 10.1002/2014gb004890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2014] [Accepted: 10/03/2014] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 K-1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gretchen Keppel-Aleks
- Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of MichiganAnn Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Aaron S Wolf
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of MichiganAnn Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Mingquan Mu
- Department of Earth System Science, University of CaliforniaIrvine, California, USA
| | - Scott C Doney
- Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Douglas C Morton
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Prasad S Kasibhatla
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke UniversityDurham, North Carolina, USA
| | - John B Miller
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado BoulderBoulder, Colorado, USA
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring DivisionBoulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Edward J Dlugokencky
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring DivisionBoulder, Colorado, USA
| | - James T Randerson
- Department of Earth System Science, University of CaliforniaIrvine, California, USA
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6
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Houweling S, Badawy B, Baker DF, Basu S, Belikov D, Bergamaschi P, Bousquet P, Broquet G, Butler T, Canadell JG, Chen J, Chevallier F, Ciais P, Collatz GJ, Denning S, Engelen R, Enting IG, Fischer ML, Fraser A, Gerbig C, Gloor M, Jacobson AR, Jones DBA, Heimann M, Khalil A, Kaminski T, Kasibhatla PS, Krakauer NY, Krol M, Maki T, Maksyutov S, Manning A, Meesters A, Miller JB, Palmer PI, Patra P, Peters W, Peylin P, Poussi Z, Prather MJ, Randerson JT, Röckmann T, Rödenbeck C, Sarmiento JL, Schimel DS, Scholze M, Schuh A, Suntharalingam P, Takahashi T, Turnbull J, Yurganov L, Vermeulen A. Iconic CO
2
Time Series at Risk. Science 2012; 337:1038-40. [DOI: 10.1126/science.337.6098.1038-b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sander Houweling
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Bakr Badawy
- Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745, Jena, Germany
| | - David F. Baker
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | - Sourish Basu
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Dmitry Belikov
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | | | - Philippe Bousquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Gregoire Broquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Tim Butler
- Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, 14467, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Josep G. Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Jing Chen
- University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada
| | - Frederic Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Scott Denning
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | - Richard Engelen
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
| | - Ian G. Enting
- ARC Centre of Excellence in the Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Marc L. Fischer
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Washington, DC 20024, USA
| | | | | | - Manuel Gloor
- Earth and Biosphere Institute, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Andrew R. Jacobson
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | | | - Martin Heimann
- Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745, Jena, Germany
| | - Aslam Khalil
- Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, USA
| | | | | | - Nir Y. Krakauer
- Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
| | - Maarten Krol
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
- Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research Center, 6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Takashi Maki
- Environmental and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorol ogical Research Institute, Tskuba, Japan
| | - Shamil Maksyutov
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Andrew Manning
- University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
| | | | - John B. Miller
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | | | - Prabir Patra
- Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
| | - Wouter Peters
- Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research Center, 6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Philippe Peylin
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | | | | | - Thomas Röckmann
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | - Andrew Schuh
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | | | - Taro Takahashi
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964–8000, USA
| | | | - Leonid Yurganov
- University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
| | - Alex Vermeulen
- Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, 1755 ZG Petten, Netherlands
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Chen Y, Randerson JT, Morton DC, DeFries RS, Collatz GJ, Kasibhatla PS, Giglio L, Jin Y, Marlier ME. Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies. Science 2011; 334:787-91. [PMID: 22076373 DOI: 10.1126/science.1209472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 171] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Chen
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
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Arellano AF, Kasibhatla PS, Giglio L, van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Collatz GJ. Time-dependent inversion estimates of global biomass-burning CO emissions using Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Collatz GJ, Giglio L, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Olsen SC, Kasischke ES. Continental-Scale Partitioning of Fire Emissions During the 1997 to 2001 El Nino/La Nina Period. Science 2004; 303:73-6. [PMID: 14704424 DOI: 10.1126/science.1090753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, drought conditions triggered widespread increases in fire activity, releasing CH4 and CO2 to the atmosphere. We evaluated the contribution of fires from different continents to variability in these greenhouse gases from 1997 to 2001, using satellite-based estimates of fire activity, biogeochemical modeling, and an inverse analysis of atmospheric CO anomalies. During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, the fire emissions anomaly was 2.1 +/- 0.8 petagrams of carbon, or 66 +/- 24% of the CO2 growth rate anomaly. The main contributors were Southeast Asia (60%), Central and South America (30%), and boreal regions of Eurasia and North America (10%).
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Affiliation(s)
- Guido R van der Werf
- U.S. Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC), Code 923, Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
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Houyoux MR, Vukovich JM, Coats CJ, Wheeler NJM, Kasibhatla PS. Emission inventory development and processing for the Seasonal Model for Regional Air Quality (SMRAQ) project. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd900975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Jacob DJ, Prather MJ, Rasch PJ, Shia RL, Balkanski YJ, Beagley SR, Bergmann DJ, Blackshear WT, Brown M, Chiba M, Chipperfield MP, de Grandpré J, Dignon JE, Feichter J, Genthon C, Grose WL, Kasibhatla PS, Köhler I, Kritz MA, Law K, Penner JE, Ramonet M, Reeves CE, Rotman DA, Stockwell DZ, Van Velthoven PFJ, Verver G, Wild O, Yang H, Zimmermann P. Evaluation and intercomparison of global atmospheric transport models using222Rn and other short-lived tracers. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1997. [DOI: 10.1029/96jd02955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Chameides WL, Kasibhatla PS, Yienger J, Levy H. Growth of Continental-Scale Metro-Agro-Plexes, Regional Ozone Pollution, and World Food Production. Science 1994; 264:74-7. [PMID: 17778137 DOI: 10.1126/science.264.5155.74] [Citation(s) in RCA: 321] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Three regions of the northern mid-latitudes, the continental-scale metro-agro-plexes, presently dominate global industrial and agricultural productivity. Although these regions cover only 23 percent of the Earth's continents, they account for most of the world's commercial energy consumption, fertilizer use, food-crop production, and food exports. They also account for more than half of the world's atmospheric nitrogen oxide (NOx,) emissions and, as a result, are prone to ground-level ozone (O(3)) pollution during the summer months. On the basis of a global simulation of atmospheric reactive nitrogen compounds, it is estimated that about 10 to 35 percent of the world's grain production may occur in parts of these regions where ozone pollution may reduce crop yields. Exposure to yield-reducing ozone pollution may triple by 2025 if rising anthropogenic NOx emissions are not abated.
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