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Heffernan AJ, Smedley A, Stickley T, Oomen S, Carrigan B, Heffernan R, Woodall H, Pinidiyapathirage J, Brumpton K. Appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing for patients with sepsis in rural hospital emergency departments. Aust J Rural Health 2024; 32:179-187. [PMID: 38158634 DOI: 10.1111/ajr.13079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
DESIGN/PARTICIPANTS This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) presenting with a process associated International Classification of Diseases code (ICD-AM-10) pertaining to sepsis between January 2017 and July 2020 to rural Emergency Departments. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Our primary outcome was antibiotic appropriateness as defined by the Australian Therapeutic Guidelines (for antibiotic selection relative to infecting source) and the National Antimicrobial Prescribing Survey tool. Our secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality. METHODS Relevant clinical and non-clinical, physiological and laboratory data were collected retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of both inappropriate antibiotic prescribing and in-hospital mortality based on clinical and non-clinical factors. RESULTS A total of 378 patients were included who primarily presented with sepsis of unknown origin (36.8%), a genitourinary (22.22%) or respiratory (18.78%) source. Antibiotics were appropriately prescribed in 59% of patients. A positive Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) (odds ratio [OR] = 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83), a respiratory infection source (OR = 0.5; 95% CI, 0.29-0.86) and documented allergy (OR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.72) were associated with a lower risk of appropriate prescribing in multivariate analysis. Forty-one percent of patients received antibiotics within 1 h of presentation. Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing was not associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION The rates of appropriate antibiotic prescribing in rural Emergency Departments for patients presenting with sepsis is low, but comparable to other referral metropolitan centres.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Heffernan
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - A Smedley
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - T Stickley
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - S Oomen
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - B Carrigan
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Rural Medical Education Australia, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - R Heffernan
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Rural Medical Education Australia, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - H Woodall
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Rural Medical Education Australia, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - J Pinidiyapathirage
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Rural Medical Education Australia, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - K Brumpton
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Rural Medical Education Australia, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
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Carter RJ, Sorenson G, Heffernan R, Kiehlbauch JA, Kornblum JS, Leggiadro RJ, Nixon LJ, Wertheim WA, Whitney CG, Layton M. Failure to Control an Outbreak of Multidrug-ResistantStreptococcus pneumoniaein a Long-Term–Care Facility Emergence and Ongoing Transmission of a Fluoroquinolone-Resistant Strain. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016; 26:248-55. [PMID: 15796275 DOI: 10.1086/502534] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
AbstractObjectives:To characterize risk factors associated with pneumococcal disease and asymptomatic colonization during an outbreak of multidrug-resistantStreptococcus pneumoniae(MDRSP) among AIDS patients in a long-term–care facility (LTCF), evaluate the efficacy of antimicrobial prophylaxis in eliminating MDRSP colonization, and describe the emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in the MDRSP outbreak strain.Design:Epidemiologic investigation based on chart review and characterization of SP strains by antimicrobial susceptibility testing and PFGE and prospective MDRSP surveillance.Setting:An 80-bed AIDS-care unit in an LTCF.Participants:Staff and residents on the unit.Results:From April 1995 through January 1996, 7 cases of MDRSP occurred. A nasopharyngeal (NP) swab survey of all residents (n = 65) and staff (n = 70) detected asymptomatic colonization among 6 residents (9%), but no staff. Isolates were sensitive only to rifampin, ofloxacin, and vancomycin. A 7-day course of rifampin and ofloxacin was given to eliminate colonization among residents: NP swab surveys at 1, 4, and 10 weeks after prophylaxis identified 1 or more colonized residents at each follow-up with isolates showing resistance to one or both treatment drugs. Between 1996 and 1999, an additional 6 patients were diagnosed with fluoroquinolone-resistant (FQ-R) MDRSP infection, with PFGE results demonstrating that the outbreak strain had persisted 3 years after the initial outbreak was recognized.Conclusions:Chemoprophylaxis likely contributed to the development of a FQ-R outbreak strain that continued to be transmitted in the facility through 1999. Long-term control of future MDRSP outbreaks should rely primarily on vaccination and strict infection control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rosalind J Carter
- Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York 10013, USA
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Heffernan R, Habimana O, Semião AJC, Cao H, Safari A, Casey E. A physical impact of organic fouling layers on bacterial adhesion during nanofiltration. Water Res 2014; 67:118-28. [PMID: 25265304 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2014.09.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2014] [Revised: 09/05/2014] [Accepted: 09/06/2014] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Organic conditioning films have been shown to alter properties of surfaces, such as hydrophobicity and surface free energy. Furthermore, initial bacterial adhesion has been shown to depend on the conditioning film surface properties as opposed to the properties of the virgin surface. For the particular case of nanofiltration membranes under permeate flux conditions, however, the conditioning film thickens to form a thin fouling layer. This study hence sought to determine if a thin fouling layer deposited on a nanofiltration membrane under permeate flux conditions governed bacterial adhesion in the same manner as a conditioning film on a surface. Thin fouling layers (less than 50 μm thick) of humic acid or alginic acid were formed on Dow Filmtec NF90 membranes and analysed using Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), confocal microscopy and surface energy techniques. Fluorescent microscopy was then used to quantify adhesion of Pseudomonas fluorescens bacterial cells onto virgin or fouled membranes under filtration conditions. It was found that instead of adhering on or into the organic fouling layer, the bacterial cells penetrated the thin fouling layer and adhered directly to the membrane surface underneath. Contrary to what surface energy measurements of the fouling layer would indicate, bacteria adhered to a greater extent onto clean membranes (24 ± 3% surface coverage) than onto those fouled with humic acid (9.8 ± 4%) or alginic acid (7.5 ± 4%). These results were confirmed by AFM measurements which indicated that a considerable amount of energy (10(-7) J/μm) was dissipated when attempting to penetrate the fouling layers compared to adhering onto clean NF90 membranes (10(-15) J/μm). The added resistance of this fouling layer was thusly seen to reduce the number of bacterial cells which could reach the membrane surface under permeate conditions. This research has highlighted an important difference between fouling layers for the particular case of nanofiltration membranes under permeate flux conditions and surface conditioning films which should be considered when conducting adhesion experiments under filtration conditions. It has also shown AFM to be an integral tool for such experiments.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Heffernan
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Ireland
| | - O Habimana
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Ireland
| | - A J C Semião
- School of Engineering, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - H Cao
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Ireland
| | - A Safari
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Ireland
| | - E Casey
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Ireland.
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Heffernan R, Semião A, Desmond P, Cao H, Safari A, Habimana O, Casey E. Disinfection of a polyamide nanofiltration membrane using ethanol. J Memb Sci 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.memsci.2013.07.069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Semião AJC, Habimana O, Cao H, Heffernan R, Safari A, Casey E. The importance of laboratory water quality for studying initial bacterial adhesion during NF filtration processes. Water Res 2013; 47:2909-2920. [PMID: 23541307 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2013.03.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2012] [Revised: 03/02/2013] [Accepted: 03/08/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Biofouling of nanofiltration (NF) and reverse osmosis (RO) membranes for water treatment has been the subject of increased research effort in recent years. A prerequisite for undertaking fundamental experimental investigation on NF and RO processes is a procedure called compaction. This involves an initial phase of clean water permeation at high pressures until a stable permeate flux is reached. However water quality used during the compaction process may vary from one laboratory to another. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of laboratory water quality during compaction of NF membranes. A second objective was to investigate if the water quality used during compaction influences initial bacterial adhesion. Experiments were undertaken with NF 270 membranes at 15 bar for permeate volumes of 0.5 L, 2 L, and 5 L using MilliQ, deionized or tap water. Membrane autopsies were performed at each permeation point for membrane surface characterisation by contact angle measurements, profilometry, and scanning electron microscopy. The biological content of compacted membranes was assessed by direct epi-fluorescence observation following nucleic acid staining. The compacted membranes were also employed as substrata for monitoring the initial adhesion of Ps. fluorescens under dynamic flow conditions for 30 min at 5 min intervals. Compared to MilliQ water, membrane compaction using deionized and tap water led to decreases in permeate flux, increase in surface hydrophobicity and led to significant build-up of a homogeneous fouling layer composed of both living and dead organisms (>10(6) cells cm(-2)). Subsequent measurements of bacterial adhesion resulted in cell loadings of 0.2 × 10(5), 1.0 × 10(5) cells cm(-2) and 2.6 × 10(5) cells cm(-2) for deionized, tap water and MilliQ water, respectively. These differences in initial cell adhesion rates demonstrate that choice of laboratory water can significantly impact the results of bacterial adhesion on NF membranes. Standardized protocols are therefore needed for the fundamental studies of bacterial adhesion and biofouling formation on NF and RO membrane. This can be implemented by first employing pure water during all membrane compaction procedures and for the modelled feed solutions used in the experiment.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J C Semião
- School of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, University College Dublin (UCD), Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
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Wallace DJ, Arquilla B, Heffernan R, Kramer M, Anderson T, Bernstein D, Augenbraun M. A test of syndromic surveillance using a severe acute respiratory syndrome model. Am J Emerg Med 2009; 27:419-23. [PMID: 19555611 PMCID: PMC7127470 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2008.03.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2008] [Revised: 03/06/2008] [Accepted: 03/13/2008] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We describe a field simulation that was conducted using volunteers to assess the ability of 3 hospitals in a network to manage a large influx of patients with a potentially communicable disease. This drill provided the opportunity to evaluate the ability of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene's (NYC-DOHMH) emergency department chief complaint syndromic surveillance system to detect a cluster of patients with febrile respiratory illness. METHODS The evaluation was a prospective simulation. The clinical picture was modeled on severe acute respiratory syndrome symptoms. Forty-four volunteers participated in the drill as mock patients. RESULTS Records from 42 patients (95%) were successfully transmitted to the NYC-DOHMH. The electronic chief complaint for 24 (57%) of these patients indicated febrile or respiratory illness. The drill did not generate a statistical signal in the NYC-DOHMH SaTScan analysis. The 42 drill patients were classified in 8 hierarchical categories based on chief complaints: sepsis (2), cold (3), diarrhea (2), respiratory (20), fever/flu (4), vomit (3), and other (8). The number of respiratory visits, while elevated on the day of the drill, did not appear particularly unusual when compared with the 14-day baseline period used for spatial analyses. CONCLUSIONS This drill with a cluster of patients with febrile respiratory illness failed to trigger a signal from the NYC-DOHMH emergency department chief complaint syndromic surveillance system. This highlighted several limitations and challenges to syndromic surveillance monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- David J Wallace
- Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Kings County Hospital Center, Brooklyn, NY, USA.
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Marx MA, Rodriguez CV, Greenko J, Das D, Heffernan R, Karpati AM, Mostashari F, Balter S, Layton M, Weiss D. Diarrheal illness detected through syndromic surveillance after a massive power outage: New York City, August 2003. Am J Public Health 2006; 96:547-53. [PMID: 16380562 PMCID: PMC1470517 DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2004.061358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/31/2005] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We investigated increases in diarrheal illness detected through syndromic surveillance after a power outage in New York City on August 14, 2003. METHODS The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene uses emergency department, pharmacy, and absentee data to conduct syndromic surveillance for diarrhea. We conducted a case-control investigation among patients presenting during August 16 to 18, 2003, to emergency departments that participated in syndromic surveillance. We compared risk factors for diarrheal illness ascertained through structured telephone interviews for case patients presenting with diarrheal symptoms and control patients selected from a stratified random sample of nondiarrheal patients. RESULTS Increases in diarrhea were detected in all data streams. Of 758 patients selected for the investigation, 301 (40%) received the full interview. Among patients 13 years and older, consumption of meat (odds ratio [OR]=2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.2, 6.1) and seafood (OR=4.8; 95% CI=1.6, 14) between the power outage and symptom onset was associated with diarrheal illness. CONCLUSIONS Diarrhea may have resulted from consumption of meat or seafood that spoiled after the power outage. Syndromic surveillance enabled prompt detection and systematic investigation of citywide illness that would otherwise have gone undetected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melissa A Marx
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 125 Worth St, Room 219, Box 22A, New York, NY 10013, USA.
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Besculides M, Heffernan R, Mostashari F, Weiss D. Evaluation of school absenteeism data for early outbreak detection, New York City. BMC Public Health 2005; 5:105. [PMID: 16212669 PMCID: PMC1260024 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-5-105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2005] [Accepted: 10/07/2005] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND School absenteeism data may have utility as an early indicator of disease outbreaks, however their value should be critically examined. This paper describes an evaluation of the utility of school absenteeism data for early outbreak detection in New York City (NYC). METHODS To assess citywide temporal trends in absenteeism, we downloaded three years (2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04) of daily school attendance data from the NYC Department of Education (DOE) website. We applied the CuSum method to identify aberrations in the adjusted daily percent absent. A spatial scan statistic was used to assess geographic clustering in absenteeism for the 2001-02 academic year. RESULTS Moderate increases in absenteeism were observed among children during peak influenza season. Spatial analysis detected 790 significant clusters of absenteeism among elementary school children (p < 0.01), two of which occurred during a previously reported outbreak. CONCLUSION Monitoring school absenteeism may be moderately useful for detecting large citywide epidemics, however, school-level data were noisy and we were unable to demonstrate any practical value in using cluster analysis to detect localized outbreaks. Based on these results, we will not implement prospective monitoring of school absenteeism data, but are evaluating the utility of more specific school-based data for outbreak detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Besculides
- Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USA
- Mathematica Policy Research, Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Richard Heffernan
- Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USA
| | - Farzad Mostashari
- Epidemiology and Surveillance, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USA
| | - Don Weiss
- Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USA
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Balter S, Weiss D, Hanson H, Reddy V, Das D, Heffernan R. Three years of emergency department gastrointestinal syndromic surveillance in New York City: what have we found? MMWR Suppl 2005; 54:175-80. [PMID: 16177711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Use of syndromic surveillance as a tool to detect outbreaks and potential biologic or chemical terrorist attacks is increasing. Evaluating health departments' use of syndromic surveillance is necessary to determine the value of this methodology. METHODS Syndromic surveillance signals detected by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) during November 2001-August 2004 were reviewed for diarrhea and vomiting syndromes, the methods used to investigate such signals, and results of these investigations to determine if any unreported outbreaks were detected. Gastrointestinal (GI) outbreaks reported to DOHMH also were reviewed to understand why they were not detected by DOHMH's Emergency Department (ED) syndromic surveillance system. RESULTS During the study period, ED surveillance generated 98 citywide and 138 spatial GI signals. Multiple outbreaks suspected to be caused by norovirus and rotavirus were identified, as well as a citywide increase in diarrheal illness. Of 98 citywide signals detected, 73 (75%) occurred during seasonal outbreaks. During the same period, 49 GI outbreaks were reported to DOHMH; none was detected simultaneously by ED surveillance. CONCLUSION Only substantial, citywide syndromic signals were identified as outbreaks and routinely reported. GI outbreaks did not generate syndromic signals. Syndromic surveillance signals occur frequently, are difficult to investigate satisfactorily, and should be viewed as a supplement to, rather than a replacement for, well-maintained traditional surveillance systems that rely on strong ties between clinicians and public health authorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sharon Balter
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York 10013, USA.
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Das D, Metzger K, Heffernan R, Balter S, Weiss D, Mostashari F. Monitoring over-the-counter medication sales for early detection of disease outbreaks--New York City. MMWR Suppl 2005; 54:41-6. [PMID: 16177692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Over-the-counter (OTC) medications are frequently used during the initial phase of illness, and increases in their sales might serve as an early indicator of communitywide disease outbreaks. Since August 2002, the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) has tracked OTC medication sales to enhance detection of natural and intentional infectious disease outbreaks. OBJECTIVES This report describes the surveillance system and presents results from retrospective analyses and a comparison between citywide trends in OTC medication sales and emergency department (ED) visits. METHODS Sales data transmitted daily to DOHMH are categorized into two groups: influenza-like illness (ILI), which includes cough and influenza medications, and gastrointestinal illness (GI), which includes major brand and generic antidiarrheals. Cyclical, linear regression models were used to identify significant (p<0.05) increases in the daily ratio of ILI to analgesics sales (analgesics are used as a denominator in the absence of total sales). Daily and weekly average ratios of GI to analgesic sales were analyzed. Citywide trends in OTC ILI and GI medication sales were compared with ED visits for fever/influenza and diarrhea syndromes. RESULTS Citywide ILI drug sales were highest during annual influenza epidemics and elevated during spring and fall allergy seasons, similar to trends in the ED fever/influenza syndrome. ILI sales did not consistently provide earlier warning than the ED system of communitywide influenza. GI drug sales increased during the fall and peaked during early winter and after the blackout of August 2003. Unlike ED diarrheal visits, GI medication sales did not substantially increase during late winter (February-March). CONCLUSION Citywide OTC medication sales can provide indications of communitywide illness, including annual influenza epidemics. Antidiarrheal medication sales were more sensitive to increases in GI caused by norovirus and influenza than illness caused by rotavirus. OTC medication sales can be considered as an adjunct syndromic surveillance system but might not be as sensitive as ED systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debjani Das
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA.
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Yeung A, Heffernan R, Weiss D. 281: Applying Scan Statistics to Reportable Communicable Disease Data for Routine Cluster Detection. Am J Epidemiol 2005. [DOI: 10.1093/aje/161.supplement_1.s71] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- A Yeung
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY 10013
| | - R Heffernan
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY 10013
| | - D Weiss
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY 10013
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. METHODS AND FINDINGS We propose a prospective space-time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks that uses only case numbers, with no need for population-at-risk data. It makes minimal assumptions about the time, geographical location, or size of the outbreak, and it adjusts for natural purely spatial and purely temporal variation. The new method was evaluated using daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits in New York City. Four of the five strongest signals were likely local precursors to citywide outbreaks due to rotavirus, norovirus, and influenza. The number of false signals was at most modest. CONCLUSION If such results hold up over longer study times and in other locations, the space-time permutation scan statistic will be an important tool for local and national health departments that are setting up early disease detection surveillance systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Kulldorff
- Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
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Heffernan R, Mostashari F, Das D, Besculides M, Rodriguez C, Greenko J, Steiner-Sichel L, Balter S, Karpati A, Thomas P, Phillips M, Ackelsberg J, Lee E, Leng J, Hartman J, Metzger K, Rosselli R, Weiss D. New York City syndromic surveillance systems. MMWR Suppl 2004; 53:23-7. [PMID: 15714622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/01/2023] Open
Abstract
New York City's first syndromic surveillance systems were established in 1995 to detect outbreaks of waterborne illness. In 1998, daily monitoring of ambulance dispatch calls for influenza-like illness began. After the 2001 World Trade Center attacks, concern about biologic terrorism led to the development of surveillance systems to track chief complaints of patients reporting to emergency departments, over-the-counter and prescription pharmacy sales, and worker absenteeism. These systems have proved useful for detecting substantial citywide increases in common viral illnesses (e.g., influenza, norovirus, and rotavirus). However, the systems have not detected more contained outbreaks earlier than traditional surveillance. Future plans include monitoring school health and outpatient clinic visits, augmenting laboratory testing to confirm syndromic signals, and conducting evaluation studies to identify which of these systems will be continued for the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Heffernan
- Data Analysis Unit, Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 125 Worth St., Room 318, Box 22A, New York, NY 10013, USA.
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Kulldorff M, Zhang Z, Hartman J, Heffernan R, Huang L, Mostashari F. Benchmark data and power calculations for evaluating disease outbreak detection methods. MMWR Suppl 2004; 53:144-51. [PMID: 15714644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/01/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Early detection of disease outbreaks enables public health officials to implement immediate disease control and prevention measures. Computer-based syndromic surveillance systems are being implemented to complement reporting by physicians and other health-care professionals to improve the timeliness of disease-outbreak detection. Space-time disease-surveillance methods have been proposed as a supplement to purely temporal statistical methods for outbreak detection to detect localized outbreaks before they spread to larger regions. OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were twofold: 1) to design and make available benchmark data sets for evaluating the statistical power of space-time early detection methods and 2) to evaluate the power of the prospective purely temporal and space-time scan statistics by applying them to the benchmark data sets at different parameter settings. METHODS Simulated data sets based on the geography and population of New York City were created, including effects of outbreaks of varying size and location. Data sets with no outbreak effects were also created. Scan statistics were then run on these data sets, and the resulting power performances were analyzed and compared. RESULTS The prospective space-time scan statistic performs well for a spectrum of outbreak models. By comparison, the prospective purely temporal scan statistic has higher power for detecting citywide outbreaks but lower power for detecting geographically localized outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS The benchmark data sets created for this study can be used successfully for formal statistical power evaluations and comparisons. If an anomaly caused by an outbreak is local, purely temporal surveillance methods might be unable to detect it, in which case space-time methods would be necessary for early detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Kulldorff
- Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, 133 Brookline Avenue, 6th Floor, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
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Steiner-Sichel L, Greenko J, Heffernan R, Layton M, Weiss D. Field investigations of emergency department syndromic surveillance signals--New York City. MMWR Suppl 2004; 53:184-9. [PMID: 15717390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/01/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) has operated a syndromic surveillance system based on emergency department (ED) chief-complaint data since November 2001. This system was created for early detection of infectious-disease outbreaks, either natural or intentional. However, limited documentation exists regarding epidemiologic field investigations conducted in response to syndromic surveillance signals. OBJECTIVE DOHMH conducted field investigations to characterize syndromic surveillance signals by person, place, and time and to determine whether signals represented true infectious-disease outbreaks. METHODS A DOHMH physician reviews ED-based syndromic surveillance results daily to look for signals. When necessary, field investigations are conducted and consist of a review of the patient line list, telephone interviews with hospital staff, chart reviews, interviews with patients, and collection and testing of specimens. RESULTS In November 2002, a series of citywide signals for diarrhea and vomiting syndromes, which coincided with institutional outbreaks consistent with viral gastroenteritis, prompted DOHMH to send mass e-mail notification to NYC ED directors and institute collection of stool specimens. Three of four specimens collected were positive for norovirus. In December 2002, DOHMH investigated why an ED syndromic signal was not generated after 15 ill patients were transferred to a participating ED during a gastrointestinal outbreak at a nursing home. Field investigation revealed varying chief complaints, multiple dates of ED visits, and a coding error in a complementary DOHMH syndromic system, and confirmed a seasonal norovirus outbreak. During March 2003, the system generated a 4-day citywide respiratory signal and a simultaneous 1-day hospital-level fever signal in a predominantly Asian community. In those instances, epidemiologic investigation provided reassurance that severe acute respiratory syndrome was not present. CONCLUSION Detailed field investigations of syndromic signals can identify the etiology of signals and determine why a given syndromic surveillance system failed to detect an outbreak captured through traditional surveillance. Validation of the utility of syndromic surveillance to detect infectious-disease outbreaks is necessary to justify allocating resources for this new public health tool.
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Abstract
The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has established a syndromic surveillance system that monitors emergency department visits to detect disease outbreaks early. Routinely collected chief complaint information is transmitted electronically to the health department daily and analyzed for temporal and spatial aberrations. Respiratory, fever, diarrhea, and vomiting are the key syndromes analyzed. Statistically significant aberrations or "signals" are investigated to determine their public health importance. In the first year of operation (November 15, 2001, to November 14, 2002), 2.5 million visits were reported from 39 participating emergency departments, covering an estimated 75% of annual visits. Most signals for the respiratory and fever syndromes (64% and 95%, respectively) occurred during periods of peak influenza A and B activity. Eighty-three percent of the signals for diarrhea and 88% of the signals for vomiting occurred during periods of suspected norovirus and rotavirus transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Heffernan
- Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York 10013, USA
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Das D, Weiss D, Mostashari F, Treadwell T, McQuiston J, Hutwagner L, Karpati A, Bornschlegel K, Seeman M, Turcios R, Terebuh P, Curtis R, Heffernan R, Balter S. Enhanced drop-in syndromic surveillance in New York City following September 11, 2001. J Urban Health 2003; 80:i76-88. [PMID: 12791782 PMCID: PMC3456534 DOI: 10.1007/pl00022318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
After the 2001 World Trade Center disaster, the New York City Department of Health was under heightened alert for bioterrorist attacks in the city. An emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance system was implemented with the assistance of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ensure early recognition of an increase or clustering of disease syndromes that might represent a disease outbreak, whether natural or intentional. The surveillance system was based on data collected 7 days a week at area EDs. Data collected were translated into syndromes, entered into an electronic database, and analyzed for aberrations in space and time within 24 hours. From September 14-27, personnel were stationed at 15 EDs on a 24-hour basis (first staffing period); from September 29-October 12, due to resource limitations, personnel were stationed at 12 EDs on an 18-hour basis (second staffing period). A standardized form was used to obtain demographic information and classify each patient visit into 12 syndrome categories. Seven of these represented early manifestations of bioterrorist agents. Data transfer and analysis for time and space clustering (alarms) by syndrome and age occurred daily. Retrospective analyses examined syndrome trends, differences in reporting between staffing periods, and the staff's experience during the project. A total of 67,536 reports were received. The system captured 83.9% of patient visits during the first staffing period, and 60.8% during the second staffing period (P < 0.01). Five syndromes each accounted for more than 1% of visits: trauma, asthma, gastrointestinal illness, upper/lower respiratory infection with fever, and anxiety. Citywide temporal alarms occurred eight times for three of the major bioterrorism-related syndromes. Spatial clustering alarms occurred 16 times by hospital location and 9 times by ZIP code for the same three syndromes. No outbreaks were detected. On-site staffing to facilitate data collection and entry, supported by daily analysis of ED visits, is a feasible short-term approach to syndromic surveillance during high-profile events. The resources required to operate such a system, however, cannot be sustained for the long term. This system was changed to an electronic-based ED syndromic system using triage log data that remains in operation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debjani Das
- Syndromic Surveillance, New York City Department of Health, New York, New York 10013.
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des Vignes F, Piesman J, Heffernan R, Schulze TL, Stafford KC, Fish D. Effect of tick removal on transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi and Ehrlichia phagocytophila by Ixodes scapularis nymphs. J Infect Dis 2001; 183:773-8. [PMID: 11181154 DOI: 10.1086/318818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 151] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2000] [Revised: 11/28/2000] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
The effect of feeding duration on pathogen transmission was studied for individual ticks infected with either laboratory or field strains of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi and field strains of Ehrlichia phagocytophila, an agent of human granulocytic ehrlichiosis. Infected nymphal Ixodes scapularis were allowed to feed individually on mice, and equal numbers were removed at 24-h intervals for < or =96 h. Mice were assayed for infection by culture, serologic testing, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. Fed ticks were assayed by culture or PCR analysis. Transmission of B. burgdorferi did not occur during the first 24 h among 66 attempts, with maximum transmission occurring between 48 and 72 h. A model estimating the probability of infection from individual ticks removed by patients in a Lyme disease-endemic area yielded an overall probability of 4.6%. Infected I. scapularis nymphs transmitted E. phagocytophila within 24 h in 2 of 3 attempts, which indicates that daily tick removal may not be adequate to prevent human infection with this agent.
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Affiliation(s)
- F des Vignes
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-0834, USA
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Abstract
Wide geographic variation in the prevalence of drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae demonstrates the importance of tracking antimicrobial resistance locally. This survey of hospital microbiology laboratories in New York City found that penicillin resistance (MIC > or = 2.0 micrograms/ml) increased from 1.5% of S. pneumoniae isolates in 1993 to 6.3% in 1995 and that in 1995, one-third of isolates nonsusceptible to penicillin (MIC > or = 0.1 microgram/ml) were also nonsusceptible to an extended-spectrum cephalosporin (MIC > or = 1 microgram/ml).
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Affiliation(s)
- R Heffernan
- New York City Department of Health, New York, USA
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Abstract
PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to describe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated risk behaviors among adolescents attending a clinic for the treatment of sexually transmitted disease in New York City. METHODS A total of 4,585 volunteers were interviewed and HIV-tested, including 456 adolescents (aged 13-19 years), of whom 220 were women (48%) and 236 men (52%). RESULTS Fewer than 1% of the 456 adolescents said they injected drugs. Unprotected vaginal sex was the most common sexual behavior, with 93% of adolescents reporting "always" having vaginal sex, and 57% "rarely or never" using condoms. Anal sex was reported by 18%. Twenty percent of adolescent men had paid for sex, compared to just 1% of women, whereas 3% of men and 4% of women had traded sex for money or drugs. Nine women and three men tested HIV seropositive. All three HIV-positive men reported having had receptive anal sex with men. Among women, HIV seropositivity was most strongly associated with crack cocaine use and trading sex for money or drugs. CONCLUSIONS HIV prevalence was high, with most infections owing to sexual transmission rather than intravenous drugs. The increased risk of HIV infection in adolescent women was associated with high-risk sex related to crack use and the exchange of sex for money or drugs.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Heffernan
- Bureau of Disease Intervention Research, New York City Department of Health, New York 10013, USA
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