US Health Care Expenditures, GDP and Health Policy Reforms: Evidence from End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests

This research investigates the over-time stability of the aggregate US healthcare expenditure (HCE)-GDP relationship, focusing on periods of healthcare reforms. The most consequential reforms-Medicaid/Medicare and the Affordable Care Act (ACA)-are challenging to study because they occur near the ends of the available data. Using annual national- and state-level data and a battery of structural break tests, we find the HCE-GDP relationship to be overwhelmingly stable. An ancillary analysis around the 2006 Massachusetts healthcare reform, which avoids the confounding effects of the Great Recession and the staggered rollout of the ACA, likewise finds no change.

Estimating the Learning Curve of a Novel Medical Device: Bipolar Sealer Use in Unilateral Total Knee Arthroplasties

BACKGROUND

The use of cost-effectiveness analysis for medical devices has proven to be challenging because of the existence of the learning effects in the device-operator interactions. The need for the relevant analytical framework for assessing the economic value of such technologies has been recognized.

OBJECTIVES

To present a modified difference-in-differences (DID) cost-effectiveness methodology that facilitates visualization of a new health technology's learning curve.

METHODS

Using the Premier Perspective database (Premier Inc., Charlotte, NC), we examined the impact of physicians adopting a bipolar sealer (BPS) to control blood loss in primary unilateral total knee arthroplasties on hospital lengths of stay and total hospitalization costs when compared with two control groups. In our DID approach, we substituted month-from-adoption for the calendar-month-of-adoption in both graphical representations and ordinary least-squares regression results to estimate the effect of the BPS.

RESULTS

The results clearly demonstrated a learning curve associated with the adoption of the BPS technology. Although the reductions in length of stay were immediate, the first postadoption year costs increased by $1335 (extrahospital controls) to $1565 (within-hospital controls). Importantly, and also consistent with a learning curve hypothesis, these initial higher costs were offset by subsequent cost savings in the second and third years postadoption.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented modified DID approach is a suitable and versatile analytical tool for economic evaluation of a slowly diffusing medical device or health technology. It provides a better understanding of the potential learning effects associated with relevant interventions.

Economic Impact of the Beneficial Effect of Changing Vascular Anastomotic Technique in Hemodialysis Access

There is an urgent and compelling need to reduce the morbidity and expense of maintaining hemodialysis vascular access patency. We previously reported the beneficial effects of altering anastomotic technique on vascular access patency from a multicenter clinical trial. Interrupted anastomoses created with nonpenetrating clips showed significant improvement in primary, assisted primary, and secondary patencies of native vein fistulae (AVF) and synthetic arteriovenous grafts (AVG). In the current report, we provide an analysis of the economic impact of these procedures. The economic analysis is based on a subgroup of patients who underwent access procedures as outpatients during years 1998–1999 at a university-affiliated hospital that contributed 23% of procedures described in the multicenter clinical trial. Hospital charges and payments received were determined for fistula placement and for commonly performed surgical and endovascular procedures (thrombectomy and angioplasty) that maintain patency. Financial comparisons were based on the hospital's average accumulative charges and actual payments calculated on a daily basis. Cost curves were generated by using charge and payment data. Financial information was extrapolated to the entire study population to estimate the cost savings for the larger group. Both charge and payment calculations indicated financial benefit with the use of clips. When financial estimates were extrapolated to reflect the national volume, clip usage projected significant savings of $20 million for AVF and $30.8 million for AVG for every 1,000 days of access patency. Replacing conventional sutures with clips can reduce the morbidity and cost associated with maintaining permanent hemodialysis vascular accesses. This beneficial effect may be due to the biologic advantages of interrupted, nonpenetrating vascular anastomoses.

The oh-so straight and narrow path: can the health care expenditure curve be bent?

Although there is much talk about whether or not the current health care reform will 'bend' the health care expenditure 'curve', exactly which 'curve' is to be 'bent' is often ill-specified. This essay notes that the 'curve' defined by the log of US national health care expenditures per capita plotted against the log of the US gross domestic product per capita has been remarkably straight since 1929 despite Medicare and Medicaid and all of the more recent reform attempts. After establishing stationarity and considering cointegration and endogeneity, the slope of this log-log relationship suggests a per capita expenditure-income elasticity of 1.388. The authors suggest two explanatory hypotheses consistent with the observed constant slope. First, many new technologies are endogenous because their introduction is determined by their expected market, which is in turn dependent on GDP per capita. Second, the authors emphasize the potential utility gained by spending disproportionately larger proportions of our growing income on hope, uncertainty-reducing information, and consumer amenities, all of which may be independent of any improved health outcome.

The Impact of Medicare's lifetime immunosuppression coverage on racial disparities in kidney graft survival

Beginning January 1, 2000, Medicare effectively extended its coverage of immunosuppression medications from 3 years to lifetime for patients eligible for Medicare on the basis of age or disability status. We examined the impact of this policy on racial disparities in kidney transplant outcomes at 5 years. Using data from the US Renal Data System, we identified cohorts of Medicare-insured kidney transplant recipients according to patient characteristics defining eligibility for lifetime immunosuppression coverage according to the year 2000 policy. We compared racial disparities in graft survival among those eligible for lifetime coverage with the Kaplan-Meier method. We modeled adjusted associations of patient race, patient income, benefits eligibility category and policy exposure with graft loss by multivariable Cox's regression. The racial disparity in graft survival between African American and non-African American among transplant recipients eligible for the lifetime benefit persisted. The graft survival disparity between high- and low-income African American recipients was insignificantly reduced among those eligible for the lifetime benefit. The results of the study suggest that insurance coverage of medication did not eliminate or reduce the racial disparity in graft survival.

The long-term outcomes and costs of diabetes mellitus among renal transplant recipients: tacrolimus versus cyclosporine

Anti-rejection regimens for renal transplants have changed dramatically during the past 20 years, but there are few long-term studies relating cost, mortality, or graft failure simultaneously to disease-pharmacotherapy couplets. We analyzed US Renal Data System data on a matched-pair cohort of first, single organ kidney transplants from 1998 through 2002 over up to 5 years following transplantation for patients on tacrolimus or low-dose cyclosporine, stratifying by whether the recipient had pre-existing or new onset diabetes. Kaplan-Meier survival curves show mortality and survival differences associated with diabetes, but no additional incremental effects of immune suppression regimen. Significant cost increases are reported for patients receiving tacrolimus above and beyond the extra costs associated with diabetes.

Income-related disparities in kidney transplant graft failures are eliminated by Medicare's immunosuppression coverage

Beginning January 1, 2000, Medicare extended coverage of immunosuppression medications from 3 years to lifetime based on age >65 years or disability. Using United States Renal Data System (USRDS) data for Medicare-insured recipients of kidney transplants between July 1995 and December 2000, we identified four cohorts of Medicare-insured kidney transplant recipients. Patients in cohort 1 were individuals who were both eligible and received lifetime coverage. Patients in cohort 2 would have been eligible, but their 3-year coverage expired before lifetime coverage was available. Patients in cohort 3 were ineligible for lifetime coverage because of youth or lack of disability. Patients in cohort 4 were transplanted between 1995 and 1996 and were ineligible for lifetime coverage. Incomes were categorized by ZIP code median household income from census data. Lifetime extension of Medicare immunosuppression was associated with improved allograft survival among low-income transplant recipients in the sense that the previously existing income-related disparities in graft survival in cohort 2 were not apparent in cohort 1. Ineligible individuals served as a control group; the income-related disparities in graft survival observed in the early cohort 4 persisted in more recent cohort 3. Multivariate proportional hazards models confirmed these findings. Future work should evaluate the cost effectiveness of these coverage increases, as well as that of benefits extensions to broader patient groups.

Cost of lifetime immunosuppression coverage for kidney transplant recipients

On January 1, 2000, Medicare extended the coverage of immunosuppression medications from 3 years to life for elderly and disabled kidney transplant recipients. This research estimates the impact of extending this lifetime coverage to all kidney transplant recipients on Medicare's cash flows. The study finds that extending coverage to all kidney transplant recipients would have increased Medicare's net cash outflows if the coverage were extended for patients of all income levels. There is evidence that extending coverage to only patients in the lowest income quartile could have resulted in a net cost savings to Medicare.

The incidence and costs of sepsis and pneumonia before and after renal transplantation in the United States

We compared the graft survival and accumulative costs associated with sepsis and pneumonia pre- and post-transplantation. We analyzed 44 916 first kidney transplants from 1995 to 2001 USRDS where Medicare was the primary payer. We drew five cohorts for each disease from the baseline population: patients who had a disease onset in the first or second years pre-transplantation (cohorts 1 and 2) or post-transplantation (cohorts 3 and 4) and patients who were disease-free (cohort 5). For each cohort, we calculated graft survival and average accumulated Medicare payments (AAMPs) for the two pre- and post-transplantation years. Graft survival: new-onset sepsis and pneumonia both significantly (p <0.01) lowered graft survival during the year of onset. AAMPs: the AAMPs incurred by sepsis- (pneumonia-) free patients during the first and second years post-transplantation were dollar 50,000 and 13,000 (dollar 51,100 and 13,500), respectively. Patients with a sepsis (pneumonia) onset post-transplantation cost on average dollar 48,400 (dollar 38,400) extra (p<0.01). Episodes of sepsis and pneumonia have a strong and independent impact on graft survival and costs.

Renal graft survival and calcineurin inhibitor

BACKGROUND

Tacrolimus is associated with fewer acute rejections than cyclosporine, but a greater risk of new onset diabetes mellitus. When compared to no tacrolimus among nondiabetics in a large patient registry, it is associated with improved graft survival. The current study used the same patient registry to compare more correctly graft survival between nondiabetic renal transplant recipients initially immunosuppressed with either of the two most frequently used calcineurin inhibitors, tacrolimus or modified cyclosporine (CsA).

METHODS

We examined data provided by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) on all first, single-organ, renal transplants to nondiabetic recipients that occurred during the years 1996 to 2000. Importantly, we then limited the study to patients on CsA (n = 7,867) or tacrolimus (n = 3,082) as the initial agent. Patients with both or neither were excluded. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to estimate the tacrolimus-related relative risk of graft failure, controlling for other significant donor, recipient, and transplant characteristics

RESULTS

We found that tacrolimus patients had graft failure rates equivalent to those of CsA patients (hazard ratio= 1.031, P = 0.631)

CONCLUSIONS

Although tacrolimus is being used with increasing frequency, analyses of the USRDS data show no net advantage in the ultimate transplantation outcome, graft survival. Given the higher acquisition price of tacrolimus compared to CsA and the similar risk of graft failure, further studies should be conducted to define those patient groups for which tacrolimus might be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of extending Medicare coverage of immunosuppressive medications to the life of a kidney transplant

Unless they maintain Medicare status through disability or age, kidney transplant recipients lose their Medicare coverage of immunosuppression 3 years after transplantation. A significant transplant survival advantage has previously been demonstrated by the extension of Medicare immunosuppressive medication coverage from 1 year to 3 years, which occurred between 1993 and 1995. The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) was analyzed for recipients of kidney transplants from 1995 to 1999. Using a Markov model, we estimated survival and costs of the current system of 3-year coverage compared with lifetime immunosuppression coverage. Results were calculated from the perspectives of society and Medicare. Extension of immunosuppression coverage produced an expected improvement from 38.6% to 47.6% in graft survival and from 55.4% to 61.8% in patient survival. The annualized expected savings to society from lifetime coverage was $136 million assuming current rates of transplantation. Medicare would break-even compared with current coverage if the fraction of patients using extended coverage was <32%. The extension would be cost-effective to Medicare if this fraction was <91%. Extended Medicare immunosuppression coverage to the life of a kidney transplant should result in better transplant and economic outcomes, and should be considered by policy makers.

A multicenter study of permanent hemodialysis access patency: beneficial effect of clipped vascular anastomotic technique

OBJECTIVE

There is an urgent and compelling need to reduce the morbidity and expense of maintaining hemodialysis vascular access patency. This large, long-term, retrospective, multicenter study, which compared access patency of autogenous arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) and synthetic bridge grafts (AVG) created with conventional sutures or nonpenetrating clips, was undertaken to resolve conflicting results from previous smaller studies.

DESIGN

Patency data for 1385 vascular access anastomoses (clipped or sutured) was obtained from 17 hospitals and dialysis centers (Appendix). Five hundred eighteen AVF (242 clip, 276 suture) and 827 AVG (440 clip, 384 suture) were analyzed. Statistical comparisons were made with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank test, two-sample t test, and X(2) test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to confirm Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Access patency (primary, secondary, overall, and intention to treat) was significantly improved in access anastomoses constructed with clips. In the intention-to-treat group, primary patency at 24 months was 0.54 for clipped AVF and 0.34 for sutured AVF, and was 0.36 for clipped AVG and 0.17 for sutured AVG. At 24 months, primary patency rate for AVF successfully used for dialysis was 0.67 for clips and 0.48 for sutures, and for AVG was 0.39 for clips and 0.19 for sutured constructs. Interventions necessary to maintain patency were significantly fewer in clipped anastomoses.

CONCLUSION

Replacing conventional suture with clips significantly reduces morbidity associated with maintaining permanent hemodialysis vascular access. This beneficial effect may be due to the biologic superiority of interrupted, nonpenetrating vascular anastomoses.

Incidence and cost of new onset diabetes mellitus among U.S. wait-listed and transplanted renal allograft recipients

This study sought to determine 1) the incidence and costs of new onset diabetes mellitus (NODM) associated with maintenance immunosuppression regimens following renal transplantation and 2) whether the mode of dialysis pretransplant or the type of calcineurin inhibition used for maintenance immunosuppression affected either the incidence or cost of NODM. The study examined the United States Renal Data System's clinical and financial records from 1994 to 1998 of all adult, first, single-organ, renal transplantations in either 1996 or 1997 with adequate financial records. It used the second diagnosis of diabetes in previously nondiabetic patients to identify NODM. While NODM had an incidence of approximately 6% per year among wait-listed dialysis patients, NODM over the first 2 years post-transplant had an incidence of almost 18% and 30% among patients receiving cyclosporine and tacrolimus, respectively. By 2 years post-transplant, Medicare paid an extra $21 500 per newly diabetic patient. We estimated the cost of diabetes attributable to maintenance immunosuppression regimens to be $2025 and $3308 for each tacrolimus patient and $1137 and $1611 for each cyclosporine patient at 1 and 2 years post-transplant, respectively.

The economic impact of preservation time in cadaveric liver transplantation

There has been considerable recent debate concerning the reconfiguration of the cadaveric liver allocation system with the intent to allocate livers to more severely ill patients over greater distances. We sought to assess the economic implications of longer preservation times in cadaveric liver transplantation that may be seen in a restructured allocation system. A total of 683 patients with nonfulminant liver disease, aged 16 years or older, receiving a cadaveric donor liver as their only transplant, were drawn from a prospective cohort of patients who received transplants between January 1991 and July 1994 at the University of California, San Francisco, the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, or the University of Nebraska, Omaha. The primary outcome measure was standardized hospitalization resource utilization from the day of transplantation through discharge. Secondary outcome measures included 2-year patient survival, and 2-year retransplantation rates. Results indicated that each 1-h increase in preservation time was associated with a 1.4% increase in standardized hospital resource utilization (p = 0.014). The effects on 2-year patient survival and retransplantation rates were not measurably affected by an increase in preservation time. We conclude that policies that increase preservation time may be expected to increase the cost of liver transplantation.

Effect of extended coverage of immunosuppressive medications by medicare on the survival of cadaveric renal transplants

Between 1993 and 1995, Medicare extended its coverage of maintenance immunosuppression medications following renal transplantation from 1 to 3 years. We hypothesized that Medicare's extension of immunosuppressive coverage would improve graft survival among low-income transplant recipients. We merged patient-level clinical data from the USRDS-distributed UNOS registry of kidney transplants throughout the USA with median family income for each patient's ZIP code from the 1990 Census. We were able to merge median incomes to 10,837 first cadaveric renal transplants performed in 1992-93 and 16,732 performed in 1995-97. Each of these chronological cohorts was divided into two groups, those with family incomes above (high-income group) and those below (low-income group) $36,033. There were no differences in graft survival at 1 year based on income in either chronological era. However, when Medicare covered immunosuppression medications for just 1 year, the low-income group of 1-year graft survivors had a 4.5% lower graft survival at the end of 3 years post-transplant (p < 0.001). During the 1995-97 period, during which Medicare provided 3 years' immunosuppression coverage, the low-income and high-income groups had equivalent graft survival at 3 years post-transplant.

Economic cost of expanded criteria donors in cadaveric renal transplantation: analysis of Medicare payments

BACKGROUND

The use of expanded criteria donors (ECDs) in cadaveric renal transplantation is increasing in the US. We assess the economic impact of the use of ECDs to the Medicare end stage renal disease program.

METHODS

The United Nations for Organ Sharing renal transplant registry was merged to Medicare claims data for 42,868 cadaveric renal transplants performed between 1991-1996 using USRDS identifiers. Only recipients for whom Medicare was the primary payer were considered, leaving 34,534 transplants. An ECD was defined as (1) age < or =5 or > or =55 years, (2) nonheart-beating donors, donor history of (3) hypertension or (4) diabetes. High-risk recipients (HRR) were age >60 years, or a retransplant. Medicare payments from the pretransplant dialysis period were projected forward to provide a financial "breakeven point" with transplantation.

RESULTS

There were 25,600 non-HRR transplants, with 5,718 (22%) using ECDs, and 8,934 HRR transplants, of which 2,200 (25%) used ECDs. The 5-year present value of payments for non-ECD/non-HRR donor/recipient pairings was $121,698 vs. $143,329 for ECD/non-HRR pairings (P<0.0001) and, similarly was $134,185 for non-ECD/HRR pairings vs. $165,716 for ECD/HRR pairings (P<0.0001). The break even point with hemodialysis ranged from 4.4 years for non-ECD/ non-HRR pairings to 13 years for the ECD/HRR combinations but was sensitive to small changes in graft survival. Transplantation was always less expensive than hemodialysis in the long run.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of ECDs on Medicare payments is most pronounced in high-risk recipients. Cadaveric renal transplantation is a cost-saving treatment strategy for the Medicare ESRD program regardless of recipient risk status or the use of ECDs.

The economic benefit of allocation of kidneys based on cross-reactive group matching

BACKGROUND

Recently the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) began a pilot study to evaluate prospectively the merits of an allocation of cadaveric kidneys based on broader classes of HLA antigens, called cross-reactive groups (CREG). The objectives of the pilot study consider patient outcomes, but not the potential economic impact of a CREG-based allocation. This study predicts the impact of a CREG-based local allocation of cadaveric kidneys on 3-year Medicare payments and graft survival.

METHODS

The UNOS renal transplant registry was merged to Medicare claims data for 1991-1997 by the United States Renal Data System. Average accumulated Medicare payments and graft survival up to 3 years posttransplant for first cadaveric renal transplant recipients were stratified by cross-reactive group mismatch categories. The economic impact was defined as the difference in average 3-year costs per transplant between the current and proposed allocation algorithms. Average 3-year costs were computed as a weighted average of costs, where the weights were the actual and predicted distributions of transplants across cross-reactive group categories.

RESULTS

Results suggest that an organ allocation based on cross-reactive group matching criteria would result in a 3-year cost savings of $1,231 (2%) per transplant, and an average 3-year graft survival improvement of 0.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost savings and graft survival improvements can be expected if CREG criteria were to replace current criteria in the current allocation policy for cadaveric kidneys, although the savings appear to be smaller than may be achievable through expanded HLA matching.

The clinical and economic impact of deep chest surgical site infections following coronary artery bypass graft surgery

STUDY OBJECTIVES

To examine how deep chest surgical site infections following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery impact hospital inpatient length of stay (LOS), costs, and mortality.

SETTING

A large, Midwestern community medical center.

DESIGN

All CABG patients who developed deep chest infection (n = 41) were compared to a set of control subjects (n = 160) systematically selected as every tenth uninfected CABG patient. Clinical data were abstracted from patient records, and cost information was obtained from the cost accounting database of the hospital.

RESULTS

Variables that significantly increased the risk of deep chest surgical site infection included obesity (odds ratio [OR], 11; p = 0. 0001), renal insufficiency (OR, 8.9; p = 0.0001), connective tissue disease (OR, 25.4; p = 0.0003), reexploration for bleeding (OR, 8.2; p = 0.0015), and the timing of antibiotic prophylaxis (> 60 min before incision; OR, 5.3; p = 0.0128). Within 1 year postoperatively, patients with deep chest surgical site infection had a mortality rate of 22%, vs 0.6% for uninfected patients (p = 0.0001). Infected patients also incurred an average of 20 additional hospital days (p = 0.0001). Univariate analysis indicated that patients who developed deep chest surgical site infection incurred $20,012 in additional costs in the first year (p = 0.0001). Infected patients who died incurred on average $60,547 more than infected patients who survived (p = 0.034). Multivariate analysis confirmed the magnitude of the estimate of the cost for deep chest surgical site infection ($18, 938; p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Deep chest surgical site infections following CABG surgery are associated with significant increases in LOS, hospitalization costs, and mortality. These results suggest the need for improved infection control measures to reduce deep chest surgical site infection rates.

Integrating the Internet into health administration education: a report from AUPHA's Faculty Internet integration task force

HRSA funded a survey to determine what Internet resources would be most useful to AUPHA membership. This manuscript describes the Internet-intensive survey methodology, reports the survey results, and lists the task force recommendations. The task force used sequential questionnaires posted on the Web to gather both potentially useful Internet resource ideas and membership perceptions of the importance of each idea. Resources recommended by survey participants and the Task Force members emphasized potential improvements to the AUPHA and AUPHA-member Web pages.

Economics of the antithymocyte globulins Thymoglobulin and Atgam in the treatment of acute renal transplant rejection

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the economic implications for transplant centres, Medicare and society of treatment of corticosteroid-resistant Banff Grades I, II and III acute kidney transplant rejection with the antithymocyte globulins Thymoglobulin or Atgam.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a cost analysis of a randomised double-blind multicentre clinical trial comparing the safety and efficacy of Thymoglobulin and Atgam that was performed at 25 centres in the US in 1994 to 1996.

PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS

The study enrolled 163 patients, 82 in the Thymoglobulin arm and 81 in the Atgam arm.

METHODS

Estimates of the cost of care from the initiation of rejection therapy to 90 days post-therapy were derived from various publicly available sources and applied to patient-specific clinical events documented in the clinical trial. Patients received either intravenous Thymoglobulin (1.5 mg/kg/day) for an average of 10 days or intravenous Atgam (15 mg/kg/day) for an average of 9.7 days.

RESULTS

On average, Thymoglobulin provided significant cost savings compared with Atgam from the perspective of society [$US5977 (1996 values); 95% confidence interval (CI) $US3719 to $US8254], Medicare ($US4967; 95% CI $US3256 to $US6678) and the transplant centre ($US3087; 95% CI $US1512 to $US4667). The overall advantage attributable to Thymoglobulin was primarily due to savings from fewer recurrent rejection treatments and less frequent return to dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of acute renal transplant rejection with Thymoglobulin is a cost saving strategy when compared with treatment with Atgam.

Cadaveric versus living donor kidney transplantation: a Medicare payment analysis

BACKGROUND

We found previously that the clinical advantages of living donor (LD) renal transplantation lead to financial cost savings compared to either cadaveric donation (CAD) or dialysis. Here, we analyze the sources of the cost savings of LD versus CAD kidney transplantation.

METHODS

We used United States Renal Data System data to merge United Network for Organ Sharing registry information with Medicare claims data for 1991-1996. Information was available for 42,868 CAD and 13,754 LD transplants. More than 5 million Medicare payment records were analyzed. We calculated the difference in average payments made by Medicare for CAD and LD for services provided during the first posttransplant year.

RESULTS

Average total payments were $39,534 and $24,652 for CAD and LD, respectively (P<0.0001) during the first posttransplant year. The largest source of the difference in payments was in inpatient hospitals, representing $10,653.67 (P<0.0001). For patients who had Medicare as the primary payer, average transplant charges were significantly higher for CAD donation ($79,730 vs. $69,547, P<0.0001); average transplant payments demonstrated no statistical differences ($28,483 vs. $28,447, P = 0.858). Therefore, inferred profitability was significantly higher for LD.

CONCLUSIONS

Medicare payments are remarkably lower for LD compared to CAD in every category. The single largest cost saving comes from inpatient hospital services. A portion of the savings from LD could be invested in programs to expand living kidney donation.

The economic implications of HLA matching in cadaveric renal transplantation

BACKGROUND

The potential economic effects of the allocation of cadaveric kidneys on the basis of tissue-matching criteria is controversial. We analyzed the economic costs associated with the transplantation of cadaveric kidneys with various numbers of HLA mismatches and examined the potential economic benefits of a local, as compared with a national, system designed to minimize HLA mismatches between donor and recipient in first cadaveric renal transplantations.

METHODS

All data were supplied by the U.S. Renal Data System. Data on all payments made by Medicare from 1991 through 1997 for the care of recipients of a first cadaveric renal transplant were analyzed according to the number of HLA-A, B, and DR mismatches between donor and recipient and the duration of cold ischemia before transplantation.

RESULTS

Average Medicare payments for renal transplant recipients in the three years after transplantation increased from 60,436 dollars per patient for fully HLA-matched kidneys (those with no HLA-A, B, or DR mismatches) to 80,807 dollars for kidneys with six HLA mismatches between donor and recipient, a difference of 34 percent (P<0.001). By three years after transplantation, the average Medicare payments were 64,119 dollars for transplantations of kidneys with less than 12 hours of cold ischemia time and 74,997 dollars for those with more than 36 hours (P<0.001). In simulations, the assignment of cadaveric kidneys to recipients by a method that minimized HLA mismatching within a local geographic area (i.e., within one of the approximately 50 organ-procurement organizations, which cover widely varying geographic areas) produced the largest cost savings (4,290 dollars per patient over a period of three years) and the largest improvements in the graft-survival rate (2.3 percent) when the potential costs of longer cold ischemia time were considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Transplantation of better-matched cadaveric kidneys could have substantial economic advantages. In our simulations, HLA-based allocation of kidneys at the local level produced the largest estimated cost savings, when the duration of cold ischemia was taken into account. No additional savings were estimated to result from a national allocation program, because the additional costs of longer cold ischemia time were greater than the advantages of optimizing HLA matching.

Criteria for outpatient management of proximal lower extremity deep venous thrombosis

STUDY OBJECTIVES

To develop and to evaluate selection criteria for outpatient management of deep venous thrombosis (DVT).

DESIGN

We developed outpatient treatment eligibility criteria that incorporated demographic and clinical data. We aimed to exclude patients at high risk for bleeding or recurrent clotting, as well as those with pulmonary embolism, limited cardiopulmonary reserve, or need for hospitalization due to another illness. Then, we retrospectively applied the criteria to hospitalized patients with newly diagnosed proximal lower extremity DVT to determine the fraction of patients eligible for outpatient therapy; patients were classified as eligible, possibly eligible, or ineligible for home treatment based on the selection criteria.

SETTING

University hospital.

PATIENTS

One hundred ninety-five hospitalized patients diagnosed as having proximal lower extremity DVT by duplex ultrasound over a 1-year period.

MEASUREMENTS

Frequency of complications during initial DVT therapy, including major bleeding, symptomatic thromboembolism, and death.

RESULTS

Eighteen (9%) patients were classified as eligible, and 18 (9%) were classified as possibly eligible for outpatient therapy. None of these patients developed complications. Of the 159 (82%) patients classified as ineligible, 13 (8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4 to 12%) died or developed serious complications. Therefore, the eligibility criteria had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI, 92 to 100%) and a negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 92 to 100%) for predicting serious complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific eligibility criteria may identify a subset of patients with acute DVT who can be treated safely at home.

A new product pricing model using intracorporate market perceptions to extract the value of additional information

OBJECTIVE

This model introduces a unique and inexpensive technique to estimate profit increases that might be expected from: (i) an additional clinical trial to establish a drug's second clinical indication; and (ii) a survey of market demand.

DESIGN

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets are used to solicit selected expert opinions about the new product's annual market share under scenarios reflecting different pricing points, promotional expenditures and clinical advantage.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS

The preprogrammed model returns profit-maximising price, promotional expenditure and market differentiation for each expert and the group as a whole. The extent of disagreement among the experts is used to estimate the additional profits which might be expected from a clinical trial and a market survey. Results from an illustrative application indicated greater incremental profits could be expected from the survey of market demand. The clinical trial generated smaller expected incremental profits because several experts felt that the trial's potential results would not affect the drug's profit-maximising price.

CONCLUSIONS

With a 1-day meeting between 6 experts, the model provided a recommendation about the new product's profit-maximising market price and promotional expenditure. Furthermore, it estimated profit increases that might be expected from additional clinical trials and a survey of market demand.

Reduced uncertainty as a diagnostic benefit: an initial assessment of somatostatic receptor scintigraphy's value in detecting distant metastases of carcinoid liver tumours

This paper employs classical concepts of diminishing marginal utility to demonstrate that risk-aversion can increase the perceived value of diagnostic procedures and thus raise optimum diagnostic expenditures. The theory is applied to a model in the spirit of Phelps and Mushlin's initial technology assessments. The specific evaluation is the cost-effectiveness of somatostatin receptor scintigraphy used to detect distant metastases of carcinoid liver tumours in a patient otherwise eligible for surgical resection of the liver. Data for the model are taken from published sources and financial databases, when available, and otherwise from a senior clinician's experience (LKK). The quantitative results indicate that receptor scintigraphy may have two beneficial impacts to risk-neutral individuals. First, it may reduce the combined costs of therapy and treatment because the diagnostic procedure costs less than the expected savings generated by avoiding inappropriate surgeries. Second, it may improve the patient's expected health-status-adjusted life years (HSALY) because the information allows physicians to better match treatment to the cancer's stage. Finally the paper demonstrates that risk aversion, as embodied in classical diminishing marginal utility applied to health status, can increase the value of the diagnostic tests and can lead the patient to choose a less beneficial treatment. An illustrative risk-averse utility function changed the optimum treatment from surgery to chemotherapy and increased scintigraphy's benefit by 500%.

Variations in healthcare measures by insurance status for patients receiving ventilator support

OBJECTIVE

To examine differences in healthcare delivery by expected health insurance status for hospitalized patients in diagnosis-related group (DRG) 475, respiratory system diagnoses requiring intubation and continuous ventilator support.

DESIGN

A survey, derived from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project interstate database, of the care delivered to 21,149 adult patients in DRG 475 and hospitalized in one of 718 acute-care hospitals in nine states. Multivariate analysis was performed, controlling for demographic and hospital factors.

RESULTS

Patients insured by health maintenance organizations (HMOs) had significantly lower rates of inpatient mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI95], 0.73-0.96), 14.3 more procedures performed (CI95, 11.5-17.2), 7.0% shorter hospitalizations (CI95, 12.5-1.6), and 5.2% higher charges (CI95, 0.4-10.0) than those with traditional private insurance. In addition, patients insured by Medicaid had 3.5% more procedures performed (CI95, 1.6-5.4), 10.4% longer lengths of hospitalization (CI95, 6.7-14.0), and 13.8% higher charges (CI95, 10.6-17.0) than those with traditional private insurance. Finally, the uninsured had significantly lower rates of inpatient mortality (OR, 0.87; CI95, 0.77-0.99), 8.5% more procedures performed (CI95, 6.0-11.1), 16.5% shorter hospitalizations (CI95, 21.5-11.6), and 13.4% lower charges (CI95, 17.8-9.0) than those with traditional private insurance.

CONCLUSION

Variations in healthcare measures by insurance status for this DRG emphasize the importance of more careful analyses of insurance categories as a determinant of healthcare access and outcomes. Expected insurance status was an independent predictor of cost. Private insurance and HMO populations differed significantly in outcome and cannot be considered equivalent.

Cytomegalovirus and HLA-A, B, and DR locus interactions: impact on renal transplant graft survival

Graft failure rates for renal transplantations performed between 1989 and 1994 and recorded in the US Renal Data System database were retrospectively evaluated for interactions between cytomegalovirus and HLA-A, B, and DR loci. Twelve significant interactions were observed. There were significantly greater risks of graft failure for the total effect of cytomegalovirus and donor or matched HLA-DR9, recipient or matched HLA-B-51, and matched HLA-B13. We conclude that further study of renal transplants with these combinations of cytomegalovirus and HLA loci is needed to determine whether the observed interactions should be taken into consideration when matching donors with recipients.

Impact of cytomegalovirus serology on graft survival in living related kidney transplantation: implications for donor selection

BACKGROUND

The impact of cytomegalovirus in living related kidney transplantation remains controversial. This study considers the implications of donor and recipient cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology for the selection of living related donor.

METHODS

Graft survival was estimated by using the bivariate Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis for 7659 living related first transplantations performed in the United States between 1989 and 1994. The effects of donor CMV serology were estimated with respect to recipient CMV serology and compared with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching, transplantation, donor, and recipient characteristics. The implications of these estimates for the selection of living related donors were considered.

RESULTS

From Kaplan-Meier estimates, donor CMV-seropositive kidneys were associated with significantly reduced graft survival for CMV-seronegative recipients (p = 0.0002) but not CMV-seropositive recipients (p = 0.1623). These findings were verified by use of Cox proportional hazards analysis accounting for covariate factors. The impact of donor CMV-seropositive kidneys on CMV-seronegative recipients was similar to one HLA-DR match, greater than one HLA-B match, and significantly greater than one HLA-A match (p = 0.0331).

CONCLUSIONS

Results identify donor CMV serology as an important determinant of transplantation outcome for living related first kidney transplant recipients who are themselves CMV seronegative. Consideration should be given to donor and recipient CMV serology when selecting an appropriate donor for living related kidney transplantation.

The effects of cytomegalovirus serology on graft and recipient survival in cadaveric renal transplantation: implications for organ allocation

The potential benefits from allocating donated cadaveric kidneys based on donor and recipient cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology remain controversial. We estimated graft survival and recipient survival using bivariate Kaplan-Meier models and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for 24,543 first cadaveric renal transplantations performed in the United States between 1989, coinciding with the introduction of ganciclovir, and 1994. The effects of donor and recipient CMV serology were estimated, and the implications of these estimates for CMV-based allocation of cadaveric kidneys were considered. From Kaplan-Meier estimates, the 3-year impact of CMV-seropositive donor kidneys was a 3.6% reduction in graft survival and a 2.4% reduction in recipient survival for CMV-seronegative recipients, and a 3.9% reduction in graft survival and a 3.0% reduction in recipient survival for CMV-seropositive recipients. Multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated an adverse impact of donor CMV seropositivity regardless of recipient CMV status. D-/R- CMV serologic pairs had the best 3-year outcomes, with 73.4% graft survival and 87.7% recipient survival. D+/R+ CMV serologic pairs were found to have the worst 3-year outcomes, with 68.4% graft survival and 83.1% recipient survival, and were significantly worse than D+/R- pairs in terms of recipient survival. The maximum estimated impact of a program allocating donor kidneys to maximize the number of D-/R- CMV serologic pairs, assuming no impact on HLA mismatches, was a 0.1% reduction in aggregate 3-year graft survival and a 0.2% reduction in aggregate recipient survival. An alternative program allocating donor kidneys to minimize the number of D+/R+ pairs had no estimated effect on either graft or recipient survival. We conclude that during the ganciclovir era, CMV continues to have an important impact on first cadaveric renal transplantation. However, even under ideal conditions, CMV-based kidney allocation to either maximize the number of D-/R- pairs or minimize the number of D+/R+ pairs is likely to provide little benefit to the population of cadaveric renal transplant recipients.

A pharmacoeconomic comparison of antithymocyte globulin and muromonab CD3 induction therapy in renal transplant recipients

Antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and muromonab CD3 (OKT3) are currently the only antilymphocyte preparations that are commercially available for induction immunosuppressive therapy for renal allograft transplantation in the US. ATG, in the usually prescribed doses, is more expensive than muromonab CD3, but muromonab CD3 is associated with more severe adverse effects that may affect clinical outcome and overall cost. We performed a retrospective study of all adult recipients of a first cadaveric renal allograft, who underwent transplantation between January 1991 and December 1994 who received either ATG (n = 92) or muromonab CD3 (n = 91) for induction therapy at our transplant centre. The average age of recipients was older (50 vs 44 yrs; p = 0.001) and extended donors were more commonly used in the ATG group (41 vs 13%; p = 0.0001) compared with the muromonab CD3 group. Nevertheless, at 1 year post-transplant, the incidence of rejection was lower (34 vs 47%) and graft survival was better (93 vs 85%; p = 0.03) in the ATG group. Patients who received ATG were discharged earlier (9.4 vs 13.3 days; p = 0.0001) and had similar serum creatinine levels on the day of discharge (2.4 +/- 1.5 vs 2.1 +/- 1.1 mg/dl; p = 0.25). Overall, the 1-year hospitalisation costs of transplantation and readmissions were similar [$US39,937 +/- 17,014 vs $US42,850 +/- 20,923 (currency year 1994); p = 0.22]. This is the first comparison of ATG and muromonab CD3 in renal transplant recipients to consider clinical as well as economic outcomes. For renal transplant patients in whom induction therapy is used at our centre, the initial expense of ATG can be justified by improved graft survival, fewer rejection episodes, and shorter hospital stays, which are associated with similar overall transplantation costs.

Optimum investments in project evaluations: when are cost-effectiveness analyses cost-effective?

This manuscript extends the classical models of the value of information to ask whether a hospital's net financial return is ever maximized by a cost-effectiveness analysis of retrospective data when watchful waiting and a full randomized clinical trial are alternative methodologies. The manuscript demonstrates that (1) some small-scale retrospective analyses may negatively affect net income and (2) under some conditions, larger-scale retrospective analyses may maximize net income. The manuscript also suggests that risk aversion increases the value of information and therefore the optimum expenditure on a project evaluation.

Predicting death after CPR. Experience at a nonteaching community hospital with a full-time critical care staff

OBJECTIVE

To identify a series of variables which predict death after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR).

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

A nonteaching community hospital with 24-hr on-site critical care specialists.

PATIENTS

Consecutive adults undergoing CPR between August 1989 and July 1991.

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Two hundred forty-two patients suffered a total of 289 cardiopulmonary arrests. Forty patients (16.5%) survived to discharge. Thirty-nine (16%) patients had more than one cardiopulmonary arrest. Survival of second CPR was 18%. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scores within 24 h of admission and CPR (APACHE[a] and APACHE[b]) were measured. APACHE(a) and (b) scores more than 20 had a 96% predictive value positive and were associated with a five-fold decrease in survival. Besides APACHE, cardiopulmonary arrests on medical floors and after day 4 of hospitalization, duration of CPR more than 15 min, and asystole assumed significance at multivariate levels for predicting death. Ventilatory assistance and Glasgow coma score of less than 9 at 24 h after CPR predicted death for initial survivors at multivariate levels. Survival on telemetry units were similar to the ICU (17 vs 21%) but twice that of the medical floors.

CONCLUSIONS

The CPR outcome can be predicted early during hospital course, which may assist physicians to formulate a do-not-resuscitate order. Patients surviving a CPR should be considered candidates for another resuscitation if clinically warranted. Low-risk patients can safely be admitted to telemetry units instead of to more costly ICUs.

The value of risk-reducing information

This manuscript integrates the utility-increasing advantages of risk reductions into well-known value-of-information justifications for executive information systems (EIS). Accordingly, even some EISs which never pay for themselves financially can be advantageous if they sufficiently reduce the uncertainty of net income for "risk averse" hospitals. The manuscript demonstrates the potential importance of risk reductions in the context of a hypothetical hospital administrator charged with selecting among alternative managed care contracts, each with uncertain outcomes. An administrator representing a hospital with diminishing marginal utility from income, a standard interpretation of risk-aversion, may find that an otherwise unprofitable EIS reduces income variations (risk) sufficiently to justify its purchase.

Symptomatic cytomegalovirus infection in renal transplant recipients given either Minnesota antilymphoblast globulin (MALG) or OKT3 for rejection prophylaxis

To compare the impact of using Minnesota antilymphoblast globulin (MALG) versus the monoclonal antibody, OKT3, on the development of symptomatic cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, we reviewed a cohort of 130 cadaveric renal transplant recipients enrolled in a prospective comparison of MALG versus OKT3 for rejection prophylaxis. Among the 112 patients at risk for CMV, prophylactic MALG was associated with an increased risk of symptomatic infection (relative hazard [rh] = 3.31; 95% confidence interval CI], 1.50 to 7.30; P = 0.003). Transplantation of kidneys from CMV-seropositive donors into CMV-seronegative recipients (rh = 5.22; 95% CI, 2.34 to 11.63; P = 0.00004), first transplantation (rh = 4.76; 95% CI, 1.06 to 21.3; P = 0.039), and acute rejection therapy (rh = 2.03; 95% CI, 0.98 to 4.21; P = 0.055) were also associated with an increased risk. Prophylactic MALG followed by treatment with any agent for acute rejection was strongly correlated with symptomatic CMV infection (rh = 4.46; 95% CI, 3.71 to 5.21; P = 0.00006). Symptomatic CMV infection was not only more frequent, but more severe in recipients of prophylactic MALG, and more MALG recipients were treated with ganciclovir. There was no difference in rejection rate for the two rejection prophylaxis regimens (P = 0.625). Prophylactic OKT3 results in less risk of symptomatic CMV infection than prophylactic MALG in cadaveric renal transplant recipients who are seropositive for CMV or whose donors are seropositive for CMV.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Health expenditure growth in Japan and the United States

This paper compares the effects of governmental policy changes on health care expenditures in Japan with similar effects in the United States. Our results indicate that Japanese economic expansion and inflation before 1982 generated higher health expenditure growth rates than those in the United States. But after a policy change in 1982, Japanese health expenditure growth dropped from 15 to 5.5 percent annually while expenditure growth in the United States remained high despite Medicare's Prospective Payment System (PPS).

Antibiotic misuse in two clinical situations: positive blood culture and administration of aminoglycosides

Antibiotic use was examined among randomly and prospectively selected cohorts of 79 patients with a positive blood culture and 88 patients given aminoglycosides for a variety of reasons. Appropriateness of antibiotic use was judged daily for each agent according to specific criteria of misuse. For patients with a positive blood culture, 14.3% of antibiotic-days were judged inappropriate in some regard, while for patients given aminoglycosides, 10.2% of antibiotic-days were thought to be inappropriate. The patterns of misuse were similar for the two groups despite disparate selection criteria. The unnecessary use of antibiotics was the single most common type of misuse in both groups, but errors in dosing collectively accounted for nearly one-half of antibiotic misuse. These results suggest that a variety of factors are responsible for misuse of antibiotics. Although the data presented do not allow conclusions about the optimal methods for control of antibiotic misuse, they imply that a multifaceted approach is probably required.

The effect of prescribed daily dose frequency on patient medication compliance

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between prescribed daily dose frequency and patient medication compliance. The medication compliance of 105 patients receiving antihypertensive medications was monitored by analyzing data obtained from special pill containers that electronically record the date and time of medication removal. Inaccurate compliance estimates derived using the simple pill count method were thereby avoided. Compliance was defined as the percent of days during which the prescribed number of doses were removed. Compliance improved from 59.0% on a three-time daily regimen to 83.6% on a once-daily regimen. Thus, compliance improves dramatically as prescribed dose frequency decreases. Probably the single most important action that health care providers can take to improve compliance is to select medications that permit the lowest daily prescribed dose frequency.

Medicine as a career: choices and consequences

Medicine has traditionally been regarded as a rewarding career both financially and socially. How true, however, is that tradition in today's world of rising costs and decreasing revenues? The educational debt of the physician-in-training is steadily increasing, and currently does not affect specialty choice. As the cost of medical education continues to rise, the applicant pool begins to shrink, thereby possibly affecting the quality of future physicians. Once the physician has completed training however, the majority enjoy a positive return on investment. Their incomes generally fail to remain ahead of inflation, and therefore, have remained within a narrow band of $40,000 in 1970 dollars. Finally, the demand for physician services cannot be attributed solely to either the consumer (patient) or to the supplier (physician). Rather, the demand for medical services appears to be a unique combination of the two. In conclusion, medicine still is an attractive career path, but the choices and consequences are becoming much more demanding.

Antimicrobial misuse in patients with positive blood cultures

PURPOSE

Inappropriate antimicrobial use was examined among a randomly and prospectively selected cohort of patients with at least one positive result of blood cultures. This misuse was then analyzed with respect to hospital charges and length of stay (LOS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study consisted of 70 patients (average age, 58.5 years) who had not undergone bone marrow transplantation. Patient charts were reviewed daily for the following information: clinical signs and symptoms of infection, pertinent laboratory data, culture results, detailed data on each antimicrobial in every antimicrobial regimen and their appropriateness, hospital charges, LOS, diagnostic and procedure codes, and discharge status. Three severity of illness variables were generated. Inappropriate antimicrobial use was described according to one of 12 categories.

RESULTS

The percent of antimicrobial misuse, defined as the proportion of days of administration of antimicrobials on which one or more antimicrobials were judged inappropriate, was found to be 22.3%. After adjustment for severity of illness and diagnosis, this average inappropriateness correlated with 4.2 additional hospitalization days and $5,368 additional hospital charges.

CONCLUSION

Our results cannot distinguish among several possible reasons for these associations, including direct causality (e.g., toxicity and prolonged hospitalization for antimicrobial use) and indirect links such as inappropriate utilization of other resources and influences of severity of illness on antimicrobial use not accounted for in our equations. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the association gives import to the desirability of further studies.

The post-1965 reductions in United States infant mortality: a national or international phenomenon?

The extent to which post-1965 declines in infant mortality could be attributed to (1) US medical and antipoverty programs and/or (2) internationally available medical advances was examined using data on infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates (IMRs, NMRs, PNMRs) in four western countries. The results showed that while post-1965 improvements occurred internationally, the US IMR improvements doubled that occurring elsewhere. Much of this advantage was attributable to post-1965 US PNMR improvements, which more than offset a slowing in the reduction of international PNMRs. In contrast, international effects contributed more to US declines in NMRs than did uniquely-United States factors.

Antibiotic cost savings from formulary restrictions and physician monitoring in a medical-school-affiliated hospital

Strictly enforced formulary restrictions for aminoglycosides, cephalosporins, and a vancomycin group generated combined savings of $2.61 (p less than 0.0046) per antibiotic day and $34,597 (p less than 0.0003) per month. Even after some cost increases (not significant) in new and other antibiotics, the program saved $1.33 (p less than 0.0175) per antibiotic day and $24,620 (p less than 0.0311) per month for all antibiotics. The pharmacy's 1985 average cost per antibiotic day and its monthly expenditures were $18.45 and $199,003, respectively. In the months following the formulary restrictions, no significant detrimental changes occurred in hospital length of stay or mortality. A retrospective analysis of 322 patients with bacteremia treated before and after the onset of the controls revealed that antibiotics were more appropriately used afterwards.