A novel diagnostic model for tuberculous meningitis using Bayesian latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is hampered by the lack of a gold standard. Current microbiological tests lack sensitivity and clinical diagnostic approaches are subjective. We therefore built a diagnostic model that can be used before microbiological test results are known.

METHODS

We included 659 individuals aged [Formula: see text] years with suspected brain infections from a prospective observational study conducted in Vietnam. We fitted a logistic regression diagnostic model for TBM status, with unknown values estimated via a latent class model on three mycobacterial tests: Ziehl-Neelsen smear, Mycobacterial culture, and GeneXpert. We additionally re-evaluated mycobacterial test performance, estimated individual mycobacillary burden, and quantified the reduction in TBM risk after confirmatory tests were negative. We also fitted a simplified model and developed a scoring table for early screening. All models were compared and validated internally.

RESULTS

Participants with HIV, miliary TB, long symptom duration, and high cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lymphocyte count were more likely to have TBM. HIV and higher CSF protein were associated with higher mycobacillary burden. In the simplified model, HIV infection, clinical symptoms with long duration, and clinical or radiological evidence of extra-neural TB were associated with TBM At the cutpoints based on Youden's Index, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing TBM for our full and simplified models were 86.0% and 79.0%, and 88.0% and 75.0% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our diagnostic model shows reliable performance and can be developed as a decision assistant for clinicians to detect patients at high risk of TBM. Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis is hampered by the lack of gold standard. We developed a diagnostic model using latent class analysis, combining confirmatory test results and risk factors. Models were accurate, well-calibrated, and can support both clinical practice and research.

The effect of M. tuberculosis lineage on clinical phenotype

Six lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensu stricto (which excludes M. africanum) are described. Single-country or small observational data suggest differences in clinical phenotype between lineages. We present strain lineage and clinical phenotype data from 12,246 patients from 3 low-incidence and 5 high-incidence countries. We used multivariable logistic regression to explore the effect of lineage on site of disease and on cavities on chest radiography, given pulmonary TB; multivariable multinomial logistic regression to investigate types of extra-pulmonary TB, given lineage; and accelerated failure time and Cox proportional-hazards models to explore the effect of lineage on time to smear and culture-conversion. Mediation analyses quantified the direct effects of lineage on outcomes. Pulmonary disease was more likely among patients with lineage(L) 2, L3 or L4, than L1 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, (95% confidence interval 1.49-2.15), p<0.001; aOR = 1.40(1.09-1.79), p = 0.007; aOR = 2.04(1.65-2.53), p<0.001, respectively). Among patients with pulmonary TB, those with L1 had greater risk of cavities on chest radiography versus those with L2 (aOR = 0.69(0.57-0.83), p<0.001) and L4 strains (aOR = 0.73(0.59-0.90), p = 0.002). L1 strains were more likely to cause osteomyelitis among patients with extra-pulmonary TB, versus L2-4 (p = 0.033, p = 0.008 and p = 0.049 respectively). Patients with L1 strains showed shorter time-to-sputum smear conversion than for L2. Causal mediation analysis showed the effect of lineage in each case was largely direct. The pattern of clinical phenotypes seen with L1 strains differed from modern lineages (L2-4). This has implications for clinical management and could influence clinical trial selection strategies.

Adjunctive Dexamethasone for Tuberculous Meningitis in HIV-Positive Adults

BACKGROUND

Adjunctive glucocorticoids are widely used to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis despite limited data supporting their safety and efficacy.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving HIV-positive adults (≥18 years of age) with tuberculous meningitis in Vietnam and Indonesia. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a 6-to-8-week tapering course of either dexamethasone or placebo in addition to 12 months of antituberculosis chemotherapy. The primary end point was death from any cause during the 12 months after randomization.

RESULTS

A total of 520 adults were randomly assigned to receive either dexamethasone (263 participants) or placebo (257 participants). The median age was 36 years; 255 of 520 participants (49.0%) had never received antiretroviral therapy, and 251 of 484 participants (51.9%) with available data had a baseline CD4 count of 50 cells per cubic millimeter or less. Six participants withdrew from the trial, and five were lost to follow-up. During the 12 months of follow-up, death occurred in 116 of 263 participants (44.1%) in the dexamethasone group and in 126 of 257 participants (49.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.10; P = 0.22). Prespecified analyses did not reveal a subgroup that clearly benefited from dexamethasone. The incidence of secondary end-point events, including cases of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome during the first 6 months, was similar in the two trial groups. The numbers of participants with at least one serious adverse event were similar in the dexamethasone group (192 of 263 participants [73.0%]) and the placebo group (194 of 257 participants [75.5%]) (P = 0.52).

CONCLUSIONS

Among HIV-positive adults with tuberculous meningitis, adjunctive dexamethasone, as compared with placebo, did not confer a benefit with respect to survival or any secondary end point. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust; ACT HIV ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03092817.).

Impact of antimicrobial use on abundance of antimicrobial resistance genes in chicken flocks in Vietnam

Objectives

We investigated longitudinally Vietnamese small-scale chicken flocks in order to characterize changes in antimicrobial resistance gene (ARG) content over their life cycle, and the impact of antimicrobial use (AMU) on an intervention consisting of veterinary advice provision.

Methods

AMU data and faecal samples were collected from 83 flocks (25 farms) at day-old, mid- and late-production (∼4 month cycle). Using high-throughput real-time PCR, samples were investigated for 94 ARGs. ARG copies were related to 16S rRNA and ng of DNA (ngDNA). Impact of AMU and ARGs in day-olds was investigated by mixed-effects models.

Results

Flocks received a mean (standard error, SE) animal daily dose (ADD) of 736.7 (83.0) and 52.1 (9.9) kg in early and late production, respectively. Overall, ARGs/16S rRNA increased from day-old (mean 1.47; SE 0.10) to mid-production (1.61; SE 0.16), further decreasing in end-production (1.60; SE 0.1) (all P > 0.05). In mid-production, ARGs/16S rRNA increased for aminoglycosides, phenicols, sulphonamides and tetracyclines, decreasing for polymyxins β-lactams and genes that confer resistance to mutiple classes (multi-drug resistance) (MDR). At end-production, aminoglycoside resistance decreased and polymyxin and quinolone resistance increased (all P < 0.05). Results in relation to ngDNA gave contradictory results. Neither AMU nor ARGs in day-olds had an impact on subsequent ARG abundance. The intervention resulted in 74.2% AMU reduction; its impact on ARGs depended on whether ARGs/ngDNA (+14.8%) or ARGs/16S rRNA metrics (-10.7%) (P > 0.05) were computed.

Conclusions

The flocks' environment (contaminated water, feed and residual contamination) is likely to play a more important role in transmission of ARGs to flocks than previously thought. Results highlight intriguing differences in the quantification of ARGs depending on the metric chosen.

Towards robust and accurate estimates of the incubation time distribution, with focus on upper tail probabilities and SARS-CoV-2 infection

Quarantine length for individuals who have been at risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been based on estimates of the incubation time distribution. The time of infection is often not known exactly, yielding data with an interval censored time origin. We give a detailed account of the data structure, likelihood formulation and assumptions usually made in the literature: (i) the risk of infection is assumed constant on the exposure window and (ii) the incubation time follows a specific parametric distribution. The impact of these assumptions remains unclear, especially for the right tail of the distribution which informs quarantine policy. We quantified bias in percentiles by means of simulation studies that mimic reality as close as possible. If assumption (i) is not correct, then median and upper percentiles are affected similarly, whereas misspecification of the parametric approach (ii) mainly affects upper percentiles. The latter may yield considerable bias. We suggest a semiparametric method that provides more robust estimates without the need of a parametric choice. Additionally, we used a simulation study to evaluate a method that has been suggested if all infection times are left censored. It assumes that the width of the interval from infection to latest possible exposure follows a uniform distribution. This assumption gave biased results in the exponential phase of an outbreak. Our application to open source data suggests that focus should be on the level of information in the observations, as expressed by the width of exposure windows, rather than the number of observations.

Urinary catecholamine excretion, cardiovascular variability, and outcomes in tetanus

Severe tetanus is characterized by muscle spasm and cardiovascular system disturbance. The pathophysiology of muscle spasm is relatively well understood and involves inhibition of central inhibitory synapses by tetanus toxin. That of cardiovascular disturbance is less clear, but is believed to relate to disinhibition of the autonomic nervous system. The clinical syndrome of autonomic nervous system dysfunction (ANSD) seen in severe tetanus is characterized principally by changes in heart rate and blood pressure which have been linked to increased circulating catecholamines. Previous studies have described varying relationships between catecholamines and signs of ANSD in tetanus, but are limited by confounders and assays used. In this study, we aimed to perform detailed characterization of the relationship between catecholamines (adrenaline and noradrenaline), cardiovascular parameters (heart rate and blood pressure) and clinical outcomes (ANSD, mechanical ventilation required, and length of intensive care unit stay) in adults with tetanus, as well as examine whether intrathecal antitoxin administration affected subsequent catecholamine excretion. Noradrenaline and adrenaline were measured by ELISA from 24-h urine collections taken on day 5 of hospitalization in 272 patients enrolled in a 2 × 2 factorial-blinded randomized controlled trial in a Vietnamese hospital. Catecholamine results measured from 263 patients were available for analysis. After adjustment for potential confounders (i.e., age, sex, intervention treatment, and medications), there were indications of non-linear relationships between urinary catecholamines and heart rate. Adrenaline and noradrenaline were associated with subsequent development of ANSD, and length of ICU stay.

The effect of M. tuberculosis lineage on clinical phenotype

Eight lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensu stricto are described. Single-country or small observational data suggest differences in clinical phenotype between lineages. We present strain lineage and clinical phenotype data from 12,246 patients from 3 low-incidence and 5 high-incidence countries. We used multivariable logistic regression to explore the effect of lineage on site of disease and on cavities on chest radiography, given pulmonary TB; multivariable multinomial logistic regression to investigate types of extra-pulmonary TB, given lineage; and accelerated failure time and Cox proportional-hazards models to explore the effect of lineage on time to smear and culture-conversion. Mediation analyses quantified the direct effects of lineage on outcomes. Pulmonary disease was more likely among patients with lineage(L) 2, L3 or L4, than L1 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, (95% confidence interval 1.49-2.15), p<0.001; aOR=1.40(1.09-1.79), p=0.007; aOR=2.04(1.65-2.53), p<0.001, respectively). Among patients with pulmonary TB, those with L1 had greater risk of cavities on chest radiography versus those with L2 (aOR=0.69(0.57-0.83), p<0.001) and L4 strains (aOR=0.73(0.59-0.90), p=0.002). L1 strains were more likely to cause osteomyelitis among patients with extra-pulmonary TB, versus L2-4 (p=0.033, p=0.008 and p=0.049 respectively). Patients with L1 strains showed shorter time-to-sputum smear conversion than for L2. Causal mediation analysis showed the effect of lineage in each case was largely direct. The pattern of clinical phenotypes seen with L1 strains differed from modern lineages (L2-4). This has implications for clinical management and could influence clinical trial selection strategies.

Early diagnostic indicators of dengue versus other febrile illnesses in Asia and Latin America (IDAMS study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study

BACKGROUND

Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management.

METHODS

In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only.

INTERPRETATION

Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook.

FUNDING

EU's Seventh Framework Programme.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Incidence and Clearance of Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection in 16 164 Individuals, According to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Sex, and Male Sexuality: An International Pooled Analysis of 34 Longitudinal Studies

BACKGROUND

Understanding the natural history of anal high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is key for designing anal cancer prevention programs but has not been systematically characterized.

METHODS

We reanalyzed data from 34 studies including 16 164 individuals in 6 risk groups defined by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, sex, and male sexuality: men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with HIV (MSMWH), HIV-negative MSM, women with HIV (WWH), HIV-negative women, men who have sex with women (MSW) with HIV (MSWWH), and HIV-negative MSW. We used Markov models to estimate incidence and clearance of 13 hrHPV types and their determinants.

RESULTS

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 had the highest incidence-clearance ratio of the hrHPV types. MSMWH had the highest hrHPV incidence (eg, 15.5% newly HPV-16 infected within 2 years), followed by HIV-negative MSM (7.5%), WWH (6.6%), HIV-negative women (2.9%), MSWWH (1.7%), and HIV-negative MSW (0.7%). Determinants of HPV-16 incidence included HIV status and number of sexual partners for MSM, women, and MSW, and anal sex behavior for MSM only. HPV-16 clearance was lower for people with HIV (PWH) and lower for prevalent than incident infection. Among MSM, increasing age was associated with lower clearance of prevalent, but not incident, HPV-16 infection.

CONCLUSIONS

This robust and unifying analysis of anal hrHPV natural history is essential to designing and predicting the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening programs on anal cancer prevention, particularly in MSM and PWH. Importantly, it demonstrates the higher carcinogenic potential of longstanding anal prevalent hrHPV infection than more recent incident infection.

A statistical analysis plan for the Adjunctive Corticosteroids for Tuberculous meningitis in HIV-positive adults (ACT HIV) clinical trial

TBM is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Clinical trial data are required to provide an evidence base for adjunctive dexamethasone in HIV-positive individuals with TBM, and to guide clinical practice. This document details the planned analyses at 12 months post randomisation for the ACT HIV clinical trial (NCT03092817); ‘a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV co-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (TBM)’. The primary endpoint of the ACT HIV trial is death (from any cause) over the first 12 months after randomisation. This statistical analysis plan expands upon and updates the analysis plan outlined in the published study protocol.

Antimicrobial resistance in commensal Escherichia coli from humans and chickens in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam is driven by antimicrobial usage and potential cross-species transmission

Objectives

To investigate phenotypic antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in relation to antimicrobial use (AMU) and potential inter-species transmission among Escherichia coli from humans and chickens located in the same households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam.

Methods

We collected data on AMU and faecal swabs from humans (N = 426) and chickens (N = 237) from 237 small-scale farms. From each sample, one E. coli strain was isolated and tested for its susceptibility against 11 antimicrobials by Sensititre AST. The association between AMR and AMU was investigated by logistic regression modelling. Using randomization, we compared the degree of similarity in AMR patterns between human and chicken E. coli from the same farms compared with isolates from different farms.

Results

The AMU rate was ∼19 times higher in chickens (291.1 per 1000 chicken-days) than in humans (15.1 per 1000 person-days). Isolates from chickens also displayed a higher prevalence of multidrug resistance (63.3%) than those of human origin (55.1%). AMU increased the probability of resistance in isolates from human (ORs between 2.1 and 5.3) and chicken (ORs between 1.9 and 4.8). E. coli from humans and chickens living on same farms had a higher degree of similarity in their AMR patterns than isolates from humans and chicken living on different farms.

Conclusions

We demonstrated the co-influence of AMU and potential transmission on observed phenotypic AMR patterns among E. coli isolates from food-producing animals and in-contact humans. Restricting unnecessary AMU alongside limiting interspecies contact (i.e. increasing hygiene and biocontainment) are essential for reducing the burden of AMR.

Human versus equine intramuscular antitoxin, with or without human intrathecal antitoxin, for the treatment of adults with tetanus: a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial

Background

Intramuscular antitoxin is recommended in tetanus treatment, but there are few data comparing human and equine preparations. Tetanus toxin acts within the CNS, where there is limited penetration of peripherally administered antitoxin; thus, intrathecal antitoxin administration might improve clinical outcomes compared with intramuscular injection.

Methods

In a 2  × 2 factorial trial, all patients aged 16 years or older with a clinical diagnosis of generalised tetanus admitted to the intensive care unit of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were eligible for study entry. Participants were randomly assigned first to 3000 IU human or 21 000 U equine intramuscular antitoxin, then to either 500 IU intrathecal human antitoxin or sham procedure. Interventions were delivered by independent clinicians, with attending clinicians and study staff masked to treatment allocations. The primary outcome was requirement for mechanical ventilation. The analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02999815; recruitment is completed.

Findings

272 adults were randomly assigned to interventions between Jan 8, 2017, and Sept 29, 2019, and followed up until May, 2020. In the intrathecal allocation, 136 individuals were randomly assigned to sham procedure and 136 to antitoxin; in the intramuscular allocation, 109 individuals were randomly assigned to equine antitoxin and 109 to human antitoxin. 54 patients received antitoxin at a previous hospital, excluding them from the intramuscular antitoxin groups. Mechanical ventilation was given to 56 (43%) of 130 patients allocated to intrathecal antitoxin and 65 (50%) of 131 allocated to sham procedure (relative risk [RR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·66–1·13; p=0·29). For the intramuscular allocation, 48 (45%) of 107 patients allocated to human antitoxin received mechanical ventilation compared with 48 (44%) of 108 patients allocated to equine antitoxin (RR 1·01, 95% CI 0·75–1·36, p=0·95). No clinically relevant difference in adverse events was reported. 22 (16%) of 136 individuals allocated to the intrathecal group and 22 (11%) of 136 allocated to the sham procedure experienced adverse events related or possibly related to the intervention. 16 (15%) of 108 individuals allocated to equine intramuscular antitoxin and 17 (16%) of 109 allocated to human antitoxin experienced adverse events related or possibly related to the intervention. There were no intervention-related deaths.

Interpretation

We found no advantage of intramuscular human antitoxin over intramuscular equine antitoxin in tetanus treatment. Intrathecal antitoxin administration was safe, but did not provide overall benefit in addition to intramuscular antitoxin administration.

Funding

The Wellcome Trust.

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B, C and D in Vietnam: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Vietnam has one of the greatest disease burdens from chronic viral hepatitis. Comprehensive prevalence data are essential to support its elimination as a public health threat.

Methods

We searched Medline and Embase from 1990 to 2021 for seroprevalence data relating to Hepatitis B (HBV), C (HCV) and D (HDV) in Vietnam. We estimated pooled prevalence with a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model and stratified study populations into i) low-risk ii) high-risk exposure and iii) liver disease. We further estimated prevalence by decade and region and rates of HIV-coinfection.

Findings

We analysed 72 studies, including 120 HBV, 114 HCV and 23 HDV study populations. Pooled HBV prevalence was low in blood donors (1.86% [1.82-1.90]) but high in antenatal populations (10.8% [10.1-11.6]) and adults in the general population (10.5% [10.0-11.0]). It was similar or modestly increased in groups at highest risk of exposure, suggesting the epidemic is largely driven by chronic infections acquired in childhood. HCV pooled prevalence in the general population was lower than historical estimates: 0.26% (0.09-0.51) have active infection defined by detectable antigen or HCV RNA. In contrast, there is an extremely high prevalence of active HCV infection in people who inject drugs (PWID) (57.8% [56.5-59.1]), which has persisted through the decades despite harm-reduction interventions. HDV appears mainly confined to high-risk groups.

Interpretation

Blood safety has improved, but renewed focus on HBV vaccination at birth and targeted HCV screening and treatment of PWID are urgently required to meet elimination targets. Large cross-sectional studies are needed to better characterize HDV prevalence, but mass screening may not be warranted.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Biphasic pattern in the effect of severe measles infection; the difference between additive and multiplicative scale

Background

Infection with measles virus (MeV) causes immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infectious diseases. Only few studies reported a duration of immunosuppression, with varying results. We investigated the effect of immunosuppression on the incidence of hospital admissions for infectious diseases in Vietnamese children.

Methods

We used retrospective data (2005 to 2015; N = 4419) from the two pediatric hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We compared the age-specific incidence of hospital admission for infectious diseases before and after hospitalization for measles. We fitted a Poisson regression model that included gender, current age, and time since measles to obtain a multiplicative effect measure. Estimates were transformed to the additive scale.

Results

We observed two phases in the incidence of hospital admission after measles. The first phase started with a fourfold increased rate of admissions during the first month after measles, dropping to a level quite comparable to children of the same age before measles. In the second phase, lasting until at least 6 years after measles, the admission rate decreased further, with values up to 20 times lower than in children of the same age before measles. However, on the additive scale the effect size in the second phase was much smaller than in the first phase.

Conclusion

The first phase highlights the public health benefits of measles vaccination by preventing measles and immune amnesia. The beneficial second phase is interesting, but its strength strongly depends on the scale. It suggests a complicated interaction between MeV infection and the host immunity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06930-x.

A statistical analysis plan for the Adjunctive Corticosteroids for Tuberculous meningitis in HIV-positive adults (ACT HIV) clinical trial

TBM is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Clinical trial data are required to provide an evidence base for adjunctive dexamethasone in HIV-positive individuals with TBM, and to guide clinical practice. This document details the planned analyses at 12 months post randomisation for the ACT HIV clinical trial (NCT03092817); 'a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV co-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (TBM)'. The primary endpoint of the ACT HIV trial is death (from any cause) over the first 12 months after randomisation. This statistical analysis plan expands upon and updates the analysis plan outlined in the published study protocol.

Effectiveness of continuous endotracheal cuff pressure control for the prevention of ventilator associated respiratory infections: an open-label randomised, controlled trial

Background

An endotracheal tube cuff pressure between 20 and 30 cmH₂O is recommended to prevent ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI). We aimed to evaluate whether continuous cuff pressure control (CPC) was associated with reduced VARI incidence compared with intermittent CPC.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial in intensive care unit (ICU) patients within 24 hours of intubation in Vietnam. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either continuous CPC using an automated electronic device or intermittent CPC using a manually hand-held manometer. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of VARI, evaluated by an independent reviewer blinded to the CPC allocation.

Results

We randomized 600 patients; 597 received the intervention or control and were included in the intention to treat analysis. Compared with intermittent CPC, continuous CPC did not reduce the proportion of patients with at least one episode of VARI (74/296 [25%] vs 69/301 [23%]; odds ratio [OR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] .77–1.67]. There were no significant differences between continuous and intermittent CPC concerning the proportion of microbiologically confirmed VARI (OR 1.40; 95% CI .94–2.10), the proportion of intubated days without antimicrobials (relative proportion [RP] 0.99; 95% CI .87–1.12), rate of ICU discharge (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 0.95; 95% CI .78–1.16), cost of ICU stay (difference in transformed mean [DTM] 0.02; 95% CI −.05 to .08], cost of ICU antimicrobials (DTM 0.02; 95% CI −.25 to .28), cost of hospital stay (DTM 0.02; 95% CI −.04 to .08), and ICU mortality risk (OR 0.96; 95% CI .67–1.38).

Conclusions

Maintaining CPC through an automated electronic device did not reduce VARI incidence.

Clinical Trial Registration

NCT02966392.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes

Background

Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD).

Methods

We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included.

Results

On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults.

Conclusions

Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients.

Funding

This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Using the geometric average hazard ratio in sample size calculation for time-to-event data with composite endpoints

Background

Sample size calculation is a key point in the design of a randomized controlled trial. With time-to-event outcomes, it’s often based on the logrank test. We provide a sample size calculation method for a composite endpoint (CE) based on the geometric average hazard ratio (gAHR) in case the proportional hazards assumption can be assumed to hold for the components, but not for the CE.

Methods

The required number of events, sample size and power formulae are based on the non-centrality parameter of the logrank test under the alternative hypothesis which is a function of the gAHR. We use the web platform, CompARE, for the sample size computations. A simulation study evaluates the empirical power of the logrank test for the CE based on the sample size in terms of the gAHR. We consider different values of the component hazard ratios, the probabilities of observing the events in the control group and the degrees of association between the components. We illustrate the sample size computations using two published randomized controlled trials. Their primary CEs are, respectively, progression-free survival (time to progression of disease or death) and the composite of bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or Staphylococcus aureus related death by 12 weeks.

Results

For a target power of 0.80, the simulation study provided mean (± SE) empirical powers equal to 0.799 (±0.004) and 0.798 (±0.004) in the exponential and non-exponential settings, respectively. The power was attained in more than 95% of the simulated scenarios and was always above 0.78, regardless of compliance with the proportional-hazard assumption.

Conclusions

The geometric average hazard ratio as an effect measure for a composite endpoint has a meaningful interpretation in the case of non-proportional hazards. Furthermore it is the natural effect measure when using the logrank test to compare the hazard rates of two groups and should be used instead of the standard hazard ratio.

Metformin as adjunctive therapy for dengue in overweight and obese patients: a protocol for an open-label clinical trial (MeDO)

Background:  Dengue is a disease of major global importance. While most symptomatic infections are mild, a small proportion of patients progress to severe disease with risk of hypovolaemic shock, organ dysfunction and death.  In the absence of effective antiviral or disease modifying drugs, clinical management is solely reliant on supportive measures. Obesity is a growing problem among young people in Vietnam and is increasingly recognised as an important risk factor for severe dengue, likely due to alterations in host immune and inflammatory pathways. Metformin, a widely used anti-hyperglycaemic agent with excellent safety profile, has demonstrated potential as a dengue therapeutic in vitro and in a retrospective observational study of adult dengue patients with type 2 diabetes.  This study aims to assess the safety and tolerability of metformin treatment in overweight and obese dengue patients, and investigate its effects on several clinical, immunological and virological markers of disease severity. Methods: This open label trial of 120 obese/overweight dengue patients will be performed in two phases, with a metformin dose escalation if no safety concerns arise in phase one. The primary endpoint is identification of clinical and laboratory adverse events.  Sixty overweight and obese dengue patients aged 10-30 years will be enrolled at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants will complete a 5-day course of metformin therapy and be compared to a non-treated group of 60 age-matched overweight and obese dengue patients. Discussion:  Previously observed antiviral and immunomodulatory effects of metformin make it a promising dengue therapeutic candidate in appropriately selected patients. This study will assess the safety and tolerability of adjunctive metformin in the management of overweight and obese young dengue patients, as well as its effects on markers of viral replication, endothelial dysfunction and host immune responses.  Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04377451 (May 6 th 2020).

Metformin as adjunctive therapy for dengue in overweight and obese patients: a protocol for an open-label clinical trial (MeDO)

Background:  Dengue is a disease of major global importance. While most symptomatic infections are mild, a small proportion of patients progress to severe disease with risk of hypovolaemic shock, organ dysfunction and death.  In the absence of effective antiviral or disease modifying drugs, clinical management is solely reliant on supportive measures. Obesity is a growing problem among young people in Vietnam and is increasingly recognised as an important risk factor for severe dengue, likely due to alterations in host immune and inflammatory pathways. Metformin, a widely used anti-hyperglycaemic agent with excellent safety profile, has demonstrated potential as a dengue therapeutic in vitro and in a retrospective observational study of adult dengue patients with type 2 diabetes.  This study aims to assess the safety and tolerability of metformin treatment in overweight and obese dengue patients, and investigate its effects on several clinical, immunological and virological markers of disease severity.

Methods: This open label trial of 120 obese/overweight dengue patients will be performed in two phases, with a metformin dose escalation if no safety concerns arise in phase one. The primary endpoint is identification of clinical and laboratory adverse events.  Sixty overweight and obese dengue patients aged 10-30 years will be enrolled at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants will complete a 5-day course of metformin therapy and be compared to a non-treated group of 60 age-matched overweight and obese dengue patients.

Discussion:  Previously observed antiviral and immunomodulatory effects of metformin make it a promising dengue therapeutic candidate in appropriately selected patients. This study will assess the safety and tolerability of adjunctive metformin in the management of overweight and obese young dengue patients, as well as its effects on markers of viral replication, endothelial dysfunction and host immune responses. 

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04377451 (May 6 ^th 2020).

Dynamic Prediction of Death in Patients With Tuberculous Meningitis Using Time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale and Plasma Sodium Measurements

BACKGROUND

Pretreatment predictors of death from tuberculous meningitis (TBM) are well established, but whether outcome can be predicted more accurately after the start of treatment by updated clinical variables is unknown. Hence, we developed and validated models that dynamically predict mortality using time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and plasma sodium measurements, together with patient baseline characteristics.

METHODS

We included 1048 adults from 4 TBM studies conducted in southern Vietnam from 2004 to 2016. We used a landmarking approach to predict death within 120 days after treatment initiation using time-updated data during the first 30 days of treatment. Separate models were built for patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate performance of the models at days 10, 20, and 30 of treatment to predict mortality by 60, 90, and 120 days. Our internal validation was corrected for overoptimism using bootstrap. We provide a web-based application that computes mortality risk within 120 days.

RESULTS

Higher GCS indicated better prognosis in all patients. In HIV-infected patients, higher plasma sodium was uniformly associated with good prognosis, whereas in HIV-uninfected patients the association was heterogeneous over time. The bias-corrected AUC of the models ranged from 0.82 to 0.92 and 0.81 to 0.85 in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively. The models outperformed the previously published baseline models.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-updated GCS and plasma sodium measurements improved predictions based solely on information obtained at diagnosis. Our models may be used in practice to define those with poor prognosis during treatment.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases

BACKGROUND

One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory.

METHODS

Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment.

RESULTS

Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

The Natural History and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the natural history of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study at a quarantine center for coronavirus disease 2019 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We enrolled quarantined people with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, collecting clinical data, travel and contact history, and saliva at enrollment and daily nasopharyngeal/throat swabs (NTSs) for RT-PCR testing. We compared the natural history and transmission potential of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals.

RESULTS

Between 10 March and 4 April 2020, 14 000 quarantined people were tested for SARS-CoV-2; 49 were positive. Of these, 30 participated in the study: 13 (43%) never had symptoms and 17 (57%) were symptomatic. Seventeen (57%) participants imported cases. Compared with symptomatic individuals, asymptomatic people were less likely to have detectable SARS-CoV-2 in NTS collected at enrollment (8/13 [62%] vs 17/17 [100%]; P = .02). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 20 of 27 (74%) available saliva samples (7 of 11 [64%] in the asymptomatic group and 13 of 16 [81%] in the symptomatic group; P = .56). Analysis of RT-PCR positivity probability showed that asymptomatic participants had faster viral clearance than symptomatic participants (P < .001 for difference over the first 19 days). This difference was most pronounced during the first week of follow-up. Two of the asymptomatic individuals appeared to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to 4 contacts.

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is common and can be detected by analysis of saliva or NTSs. The NTS viral loads fall faster in asymptomatic individuals, but these individuals appear able to transmit the virus to others.

Do Intracerebral Cytokine Responses Explain the Harmful Effects of Dexamethasone in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-associated Cryptococcal Meningitis?

Background

The CryptoDex trial showed that dexamethasone caused poorer clinical outcomes and slowed fungal clearance in human immunodeficiency virus–associated cryptococcal meningitis. We analyzed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cytokine concentrations from participants over the first week of treatment to investigate mechanisms of harm and test 2 hypotheses: (1) dexamethasone reduced proinflammatory cytokine concentrations, leading to poorer outcomes and (2) leukotriene A4 hydrolase (LTA4H) genotype influenced the clinical impact of dexamethasone, as observed in tuberculous meningitis.

Methods

We included participants from Vietnam, Thailand, and Uganda. Using the Luminex system, we measured CSF concentrations of the following: interferon γ, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, monocyte chemoattractant 1, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α, and interleukin 6, 12p70, 8, 4, 10, and 17. We determined the LTA4H genotype based on the promoter region single-nucleotide polymorphism rs17525495. We assessed the impact of dexamethasone on cytokine concentration dynamics and the association between cytokine concentration dynamics and fungal clearance with mixed effect models. We measured the influence of LTA4H genotype on outcomes with Cox regression models.

Results

Dexamethasone increased the rate TNF-α concentration’s decline in (−0.13 log2pg/mL/d (95% confidence interval, −.22 to −.06 log2pg/mL/d; P = .03), which was associated with slower fungal clearance (correlation, −0.62; 95% confidence interval, −.83 to −.26). LTA4H genotype had no statistically significant impact on outcome or response to dexamethasone therapy. Better clinical outcomes were associated with higher baseline concentrations of interferon γ.

Conclusions

Dexamethasone may slow fungal clearance and worsen outcomes by increasing TNF-α concentration’s rate of decline.

A multi centre randomized open label trial of chloroquine for the treatment of adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Vietnam

Background: COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and causes substantial morbidity and mortality. There is currently no vaccine to prevent COVID-19 or therapeutic agent to treat COVID-19. This clinical trial is designed to evaluate chloroquine as a potential therapeutic for the treatment of hospitalised people with COVID-19. We hypothesise that chloroquine slows viral replication in patients with COVID-19, attenuating the infection, and resulting in more rapid decline of viral load in throat/nose swabs. This viral attenuation should be associated with improved patient outcomes. Method: The study will start with a 10-patient prospective observational pilot study following the same entry and exclusion criteria as for the randomized trial and undergoing the same procedures. The main study is an open label, randomised, controlled trial with two parallel arms of standard of care (control arm) versus standard of care with 10 days of chloroquine (intervention arm) with a loading dose over the first 24 hours, followed by 300mg base orally once daily for nine days. The study will recruit patients in three sites in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, the Cu Chi Field Hospital, and the Can Gio COVID hospital. The primary endpoint is the time to viral clearance from throat/nose swab, defined as the time following randomization until the midpoint between the last positive and the first of the negative throat/nose swabs. Viral presence will be determined using RT-PCR to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Discussion: The results of the study will add to the evidence-based guidelines for management of COVID-19. Given the enormous experience of its use in malaria chemoprophylaxis, excellent safety and tolerability profile, and its very low cost, if proved effective then chloroquine would be a readily deployable and affordable treatment for patients with COVID-19. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04328493 31/03/2020.

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis: a prospective, randomised, diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) might have higher sensitivity than its predecessor, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), but its role in tuberculous meningitis diagnosis is uncertain. We aimed to compare Xpert Ultra with Xpert for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected adults.

METHODS

In this prospective, randomised, diagnostic accuracy study, adults (≥16 years) with suspected tuberculous meningitis from a single centre in Vietnam were randomly assigned to cerebrospinal fluid testing by either Xpert Ultra or Xpert at baseline and, if treated for tuberculous meningitis, after 3-4 weeks of treatment. Test performance (sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values) was calculated for Xpert Ultra and Xpert and compared against clinical and mycobacterial culture reference standards. Analyses were done for all patients and by HIV status.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 16, 2017, and Feb 10, 2019, 205 patients were randomly assigned to Xpert Ultra (n=103) or Xpert (n=102). The sensitivities of Xpert Ultra and Xpert for tuberculous meningitis diagnosis against a reference standard of definite, probable, and possible tuberculous meningitis were 47·2% (95% CI 34·4-60·3; 25 of 53 patients) for Xpert Ultra and 39·6% (27·6-53·1; 21 of 53) for Xpert (p=0·56); specificities were 100·0% (95% CI 92·0-100·0; 44 of 44) and 100·0% (92·6-100·0; 48 of 48), respectively. In HIV-negative patients, the sensitivity of Xpert Ultra was 38·9% (24·8-55·1; 14 of 36) versus 22·9% (12·1-39·0; eight of 35) by Xpert (p=0·23). In HIV co-infected patients, the sensitivities were 64·3% (38·8-83·7; nine of 14) for Xpert Ultra and 76·9% (49·7-91·8; ten of 13) for Xpert (p=0·77). Negative predictive values were 61·1% (49·6-71·5) for Xpert Ultra and 60·0% (49·0-70·0) for Xpert. Against a reference standard of mycobacterial culture, sensitivities were 90·9% (72·2-97·5; 20 of 22 patients) for Xpert Ultra and 81·8% (61·5-92·7; 18 of 22) for Xpert (p=0·66); specificities were 93·9% (85·4-97·6; 62 of 66) and 96·9% (89·5-91·2; 63 of 65), respectively. Six (22%) of 27 patients had a positive test by Xpert Ultra after 4 weeks of treatment versus two (9%) of 22 patients by Xpert.

INTERPRETATION

Xpert Ultra was not statistically superior to Xpert for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected adults. A negative Xpert Ultra or Xpert test does not rule out tuberculous meningitis. New diagnostic strategies are urgently required.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics.

Risk and Temporal Changes of Heart Failure Among 5-Year Childhood Cancer Survivors: a DCOG-LATER Study

Background

Heart failure is one of the most important late effects after treatment for cancer in childhood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the risk of heart failure, temporal changes by treatment periods, and the risk factors for heart failure in childhood cancer survivors (CCS).

Methods and Results

The DCOG‐LATER (Dutch Childhood Oncology Group–Long‐Term Effects After Childhood Cancer) cohort includes 6,165 5‐year CCS diagnosed between 1963 and 2002. Details on prior cancer diagnosis and treatment were collected for this nationwide cohort. Cause‐specific cumulative incidences and risk factors of heart failure were obtained. Cardiac follow‐up was complete for 5,845 CCS (94.8%). After a median follow‐up of 19.8 years and at a median attained age of 27.3 years, 116 survivors developed symptomatic heart failure. The cumulative incidence of developing heart failure 40 years after childhood cancer diagnosis was 4.4% (3.4%–5.5%) among all CCS. The cumulative incidence of heart failure grade ≥3 among survivors treated in the more recent treatment periods was higher compared with survivors treated earlier (Gray test, P=0.05). Mortality due to heart failure decreased in the more recent treatment periods (Gray test, P=0.02). In multivariable analysis, survivors treated with a higher dose of mitoxantrone or cyclophosphamide had a higher risk of heart failure than survivors who were exposed to lower doses.

Conclusions

CCS treated with mitoxantrone, cyclophosphamide, anthracyclines, or radiotherapy involving the heart are at a high risk for severe, life‐threatening or fatal heart failure at a young age. Although mortality decreased, the incidence of severe or life‐threatening heart failure increased with more recent treatment periods.

Effect of incident hepatitis C infection on CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA trajectories based on a multinational HIV seroconversion cohort

BACKGROUND

Most studies on hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV-coinfection do not account for the order and duration of these two infections. We aimed to assess the effect of incident HCV infection, and its timing relative to HIV seroconversion (HIVsc) in HIV-positive MSM on their subsequent CD4+ T-cell count and HIV RNA viral load trajectories.

METHODS

We included MSM with well estimated dates of HIVsc from 17 cohorts within the CASCADE Collaboration. HCV-coinfected MSM were matched to as many HIV monoinfected MSM as possible by HIV-infection duration and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) use. We used multilevel random-effects models stratified by cART use to assess differences in CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA viral load trajectories by HCV-coinfection status.

FINDINGS

We matched 214 (ART-naive) and 147 (on cART) HCV-coinfected MSM to 5384 and 3954, respectively, matched controls. The timing of HCV seroconversion (HCVsc) relative to HIVsc had no demonstrable effect on HIV RNA viral load or CD4+ cell count trajectories. In the first 2-3 years following HCVsc CD4 cell counts were lower among HCV-coinfected MSM, but became comparable with HIV monoinfected MSM thereafter. In ART-naive MSM, during the first 2 years after HCVsc, HIV RNA viral load levels were lower or comparable with HIV monoinfected, tending to be higher thereafter. In MSM on cART, HCV had no significant effect on having a detectable HIV RNA viral load.

INTERPRETATION

Irrespective of the duration of HIV infection when HCV is acquired, CD4+ cell counts were temporarily lower following HCVsc, even when on cART. The clinical implications of our findings remain to be further elucidated.

Risk of Parkinson's disease dementia related to level I MDS PD-MCI

BACKGROUND

The International Parkinson and Movement Disorders Society criteria for mild cognitive impairment in PD need validation. The objectives of this present study were to evaluate prognostic validity of level I (abbreviated) International Parkinson and Movement Disorders Society mild cognitive impairment in PD criteria for development of PD dementia and compared them with level II (comprehensive) criteria.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 8 international studies (1045 patients) from our consortium that included baseline data on demographics, motor signs, depression, detailed neuropsychological testing, and longitudinal follow-up for conversion to Parkinson's disease dementia. Survival analysis evaluated their contribution to the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia.

RESULTS

Level I mild cognitive impairment in PD, increasing age, male sex, and severity of PD motor signs independently increased the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia. Level I and level II mild cognitive impairment in PD classification had similar discriminative ability with respect to the time to Parkinson's disease dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

Level I mild cognitive impairment in PD classification independently contributes to the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia. This finding supports the prognostic validity of the abbreviated mild cognitive impairment in PD criteria. © 2019 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Improving the microbiological diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis: A prospective, international, multicentre comparison of conventional and modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain, GeneXpert, and culture of cerebrospinal fluid

OBJECTIVES

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the severest form of tuberculosis, but current diagnostic tests are insensitive. Recent reports suggest simple modifications to conventional cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) staining may greatly improve sensitivity. We sought to define the performance of modified and conventional ZN stain for TBM diagnosis.

METHODS

In hospitals in Vietnam, South Africa and Indonesia we conducted a prospective study of modified ZN with or without cytospin, conventional ZN smear, GeneXpert, and culture on CSF in adults with suspected TBM.

RESULTS

A total of 618 individuals were enrolled across 3 sites. Compared with the TBM clinical diagnostic gold standard for research (definite probable or possible TBM), sensitivity of conventional ZN and modified ZN with cytospin were 33.9% and 34.5% respectively (p = 1.0 for the difference between tests), compared with culture 31.8% and Xpert 25.1%. Using culture as a reference, sensitivities of conventional ZN, modified ZN with cytospin, and Xpert were 66.4%, 67.5%, and 72.3%, respectively. Higher CSF volume and lactate, and lower CSF:blood glucose ratio were independently associated with microbiologically confirmed TBM.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified ZN stain does not improve diagnosis of TBM. Currently available tests are insensitive, but testing large CSF volumes improves performance. New diagnostic tests for TBM are urgently required.

Intrathecal Immunoglobulin for treatment of adult patients with tetanus: A randomized controlled 2x2 factorial trial

Despite long-standing availability of an effective vaccine, tetanus remains a significant problem in many countries. Outcome depends on access to mechanical ventilation and intensive care facilities and in settings where these are limited, mortality remains high. Administration of tetanus antitoxin by the intramuscular route is recommended treatment for tetanus, but as the tetanus toxin acts within the central nervous system, it has been suggested that intrathecal administration of antitoxin may be beneficial. Previous studies have indicated benefit, but with the exception of one small trial no blinded studies have been performed. The objective of this study is to establish whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces the need for mechanical ventilation in patients with tetanus. Secondary objectives: to determine whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces autonomic nervous system dysfunction and length of hospital/ intensive care unit stay; whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin in the treatment of tetanus is safe and cost-effective; to provide data to inform recommendation of human rather than equine antitoxin. This study will enroll adult patients (≥16 years old) with tetanus admitted to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City. The study is a 2x2 factorial blinded randomized controlled trial. Eligible patients will be randomized in a 1:1:1:1 manner to the four treatment arms (intrathecal treatment and human intramuscular treatment, intrathecal treatment and equine intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and human intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and equine intramuscular treatment). Primary outcome measure will be requirement for mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcome measures: duration of hospital/ intensive care unit stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, in-hospital and 240-day mortality and disability, new antibiotic prescription, incidence of ventilator associated pneumonia and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, total dose of benzodiazepines and pipecuronium, and incidence of adverse events. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02999815 Registration date: 21 December 2016.

A novel prognostic model for transplant-free survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis

OBJECTIVE

Most prognostic models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are based on patients referred to tertiary care and may not be applicable for the majority of patients with PSC. The aim of this study was to construct and externally validate a novel, broadly applicable prognostic model for transplant-free survival in PSC, based on a large, predominantly population-based cohort using readily available variables.

DESIGN

The derivation cohort consisted of 692 patients with PSC from the Netherlands, the validation cohort of 264 patients with PSC from the UK. Retrospectively, clinical and biochemical variables were collected. We derived the prognostic index from a multivariable Cox regression model in which predictors were selected and parameters were estimated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The composite end point of PSC-related death and liver transplantation was used. To quantify the models' predictive value, we calculated the C-statistic as discrimination index and established its calibration accuracy by comparing predicted curves with Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

The final model included the variables: PSC subtype, age at PSC diagnosis, albumin, platelets, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin. The C-statistic was 0.68 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.85). Calibration was satisfactory. The model was robust in the sense that the C-statistic did not change when prediction was based on biochemical variables collected at follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The Amsterdam-Oxford model for PSC showed adequate performance in estimating PSC-related death and/or liver transplant in a predominantly population-based setting. The transplant-free survival probability can be recalculated when updated biochemical values are available.

Hospital-acquired colonization and infections in a Vietnamese intensive care unit

Data concerning intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacterial colonization and infections are scarce from low and middle-income countries (LMICs). ICU patients in these settings are at high risk of becoming colonized and infected with antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AROs). We conducted a prospective observational study at the Ho Chi Minh City Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Vietnam from November 2014 to January 2016 to assess the ICU-acquired colonization and infections, focusing on the five major pathogens in our setting: Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus), Escherichia coli (E. coli), Klebsiella spp., Pseudomonas spp. and Acinetobacter spp., among adult patients with more than 48 hours of ICU stay. We found that 61.3% (223/364) of ICU patients became colonized with AROs: 44.2% (161/364) with rectal ESBL-producing E. coli and Klebsiella spp.; 30.8% (40/130) with endotracheal carbapenemase-producing Acinetobacter spp.; and 14.3% (52/364) with nasal methicillin-resistant S. aureus. The incidence rate of ICU patients becoming colonized with AROs was 9.8 (223/2,276) per 100 patient days. Significant risk factor for AROs colonization was the Charlson Comorbidity Index score. The proportion of ICU patients with HAIs was 23.4% (85/364), and the incidence rate of ICU patients contracting HAIs was 2.3 (85/3,701) per 100 patient days. The vascular catheterization (central venous, arterial and hemofiltration catheter) was significantly associated with hospital-acquired bloodstream infection. Of the 77 patients who developed ICU-acquired infections with one of the five specified bacteria, 44 (57.1%) had prior colonization with the same organism. Vietnamese ICU patients have a high colonization rate with AROs and a high risk of subsequent infections. Future research should focus on monitoring colonization and the development of preventive measures that may halt spread of AROs in ICU settings.

Adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (ACT HIV): Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Co-infection with HIV increases the risk of developing TBM, complicates treatment, and substantially worsens outcome. Whether corticosteroids confer a survival benefit in HIV-infected patients with TBM remains uncertain. Hepatitis is the most common drug-induced serious adverse event associated with anti-tuberculosis treatment, occurring in 20% of HIV-infected patients. The suggested concentration thresholds for stopping anti-tuberculosis drugs are not evidence-based. This study aims to determine whether dexamethasone is a safe and effective addition to the first 6-8 weeks of anti-tuberculosis treatment of TBM in patients with HIV, and investigate alternative management strategies in a subset of patients who develop drug induced liver injury (DILI) that will enable the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid therapy.  Methods: We will perform a parallel group, randomised (1:1), double blind, placebo-controlled multi-centre Phase III trial, comparing the effect of dexamethasone versus placebo on overall survival in HIV-infected patients with TBM, in addition to standard anti-tuberculosis and antiretroviral treatment. The trial will be set in two hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and two hospitals in Jakarta, Indonesia. The trial will enrol 520 HIV-infected adults. An ancillary study will perform a randomised comparison of three DILI management strategies with the aim of demonstrating which strategy results in the least interruption in rifampicin and isoniazid treatment. An identical ancillary study will also be performed in the linked randomised controlled trial of dexamethasone in HIV-uninfected adults with TBM stratified by LTA4H genotype (LAST ACT).  Discussion: Whether corticosteroids confer a survival benefit in HIV-infected patients remains uncertain, and the current evidence base for using corticosteroids in this context is limited. Interruptions in anti-tuberculosis chemotherapy is a risk factor for death from TBM. Alternative management strategies in DILI may allow the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid therapy.

Intrathecal Immunoglobulin for treatment of adult patients with tetanus: A randomized controlled 2x2 factorial trial

Despite long-standing availability of an effective vaccine, tetanus remains a significant problem in many countries. Outcome depends on access to mechanical ventilation and intensive care facilities and in settings where these are limited, mortality remains high. Administration of tetanus antitoxin by the intramuscular route is recommended treatment for tetanus, but as the tetanus toxin acts within the central nervous system, it has been suggested that intrathecal administration of antitoxin may be beneficial. Previous studies have indicated benefit, but with the exception of one small trial no blinded studies have been performed. The objective of this study is to establish whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces the need for mechanical ventilation in patients with tetanus. Secondary objectives: to determine whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin reduces autonomic nervous system dysfunction and length of hospital/ intensive care unit stay; whether the addition of intrathecal tetanus antitoxin in the treatment of tetanus is safe and cost-effective; to provide data to inform recommendation of human rather than equine antitoxin. This study will enroll adult patients (≥16 years old) with tetanus admitted to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City. The study is a 2x2 factorial blinded randomized controlled trial. Eligible patients will be randomized in a 1:1:1:1 manner to the four treatment arms (intrathecal treatment and human intramuscular treatment, intrathecal treatment and equine intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and human intramuscular treatment, sham procedure and equine intramuscular treatment). Primary outcome measure will be requirement for mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcome measures: duration of hospital/ intensive care unit stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, in-hospital and 240-day mortality and disability, new antibiotic prescription, incidence of ventilator associated pneumonia and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, total dose of benzodiazepines and pipecuronium, and incidence of adverse events. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02999815 Registration date: 21 December 2016.

Continuous versus intermittent endotracheal cuff pressure control for the prevention of ventilator-associated respiratory infections in Vietnam: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI) comprises ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and ventilator-associated tracheobronchitis (VAT). Although their diagnostic criteria vary, together these are the most common hospital-acquired infections in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, responsible for a large proportion of antibiotic use within ICUs. Evidence-based strategies for the prevention of VARI in resource-limited settings are lacking. Preventing the leakage of oropharyngeal secretions into the lung using continuous endotracheal cuff pressure control is a promising strategy. The aim of this study is to investigate the efficacy of automated, continuous endotracheal cuff pressure control in preventing the development of VARI and reducing antibiotic use in ICUs in Vietnam.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is an open-label randomised controlled multicentre trial. We will enrol 600 adult patients intubated for ≤ 24 h at the time of enrolment. Eligible patients will be stratified according to admission diagnosis (180 tetanus, 420 non-tetanus) and site and will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either (1) automated, continuous control of endotracheal cuff pressure or (2) intermittent measurement and control of endotracheal cuff pressure using a manual cuff pressure meter. The primary outcome is the occurrence of VARI, defined as either VAP or VAT during the ICU admission up to a maximum of 90 days after randomisation. Patients in both groups who are at risk for VARI will receive a standardised battery of investigations if their treating physician feels a new infection has occurred, the results of which will be used by an endpoint review committee, blinded to the allocated arm and independent of patient care, to determine the primary outcome. All enrolled patients will be followed for mortality and endotracheal tube cuff-related complications at 28 days and 90 days after randomisation. Other secondary outcomes include antibiotic use; days ventilated, in ICU and in hospital; inpatient mortality; costs of antibiotics in ICU; duration of ICU stay; and duration of hospital stay.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide high-quality evidence concerning the use of continuous endotracheal cuff pressure control as a method to reduce VARI, antibiotic use and hospitalisation costs and to shorten stay.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02966392 . Registered on November 9, 2016. Protocol version: 2.0; issue date March 3, 2017.

Adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (ACT HIV): Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Co-infection with HIV increases the risk of developing TBM, complicates treatment, and substantially worsens outcome. Whether corticosteroids confer a survival benefit in HIV-infected patients with TBM remains uncertain. Hepatitis is the most common drug-induced serious adverse event associated with anti-tuberculosis treatment, occurring in 20% of HIV-infected patients. The suggested concentration thresholds for stopping anti-tuberculosis drugs are not evidence-based. This study aims to determine whether dexamethasone is a safe and effective addition to the first 6-8 weeks of anti-tuberculosis treatment of TBM in patients with HIV, and investigate alternative management strategies in a subset of patients who develop drug induced liver injury (DILI) that will enable the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid therapy.  Methods: We will perform a parallel group, randomised (1:1), double blind, placebo-controlled multi-centre Phase III trial, comparing the effect of dexamethasone versus placebo on overall survival in HIV-infected patients with TBM, in addition to standard anti-tuberculosis and antiretroviral treatment. The trial will be set in two hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and two hospitals in Jakarta, Indonesia. The trial will enrol 520 HIV-infected adults. An ancillary study will perform a randomised comparison of three DILI management strategies with the aim of demonstrating which strategy results in the least interruption in rifampicin and isoniazid treatment. An identical ancillary study will also be performed in the linked randomised controlled trial of dexamethasone in HIV-uninfected adults with TBM stratified by LTA4H genotype (LAST ACT).  Discussion: Whether corticosteroids confer a survival benefit in HIV-infected patients remains uncertain, and the current evidence base for using corticosteroids in this context is limited. Interruptions in anti-tuberculosis chemotherapy is a risk factor for death from TBM. Alternative management strategies in DILI may allow the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid therapy.

Adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV-uninfected adults with tuberculous meningitis stratified by Leukotriene A4 hydrolase genotype (LAST ACT): Study protocol for a randomised double blind placebo controlled non-inferiority trial

Background: Tuberculosis kills more people than any other bacterial infection worldwide. In tuberculous meningitis (TBM), a common functional promoter variant (C/T transition) in the gene encoding leukotriene A4 hydrolase (LTA4H), predicts pre-treatment inflammatory phenotype and response to dexamethasone in HIV-uninfected individuals. The primary aim of this study is to determine whether LTA4H genotype determines benefit or harm from adjunctive dexamethasone in HIV-uninfected Vietnamese adults with TBM. The secondary aim is to investigate alternative management strategies in individuals who develop drug induced liver injury (DILI) that will enable the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid therapy.  Methods: We will perform a parallel group, randomised (1:1), double blind, placebo-controlled,  multi-centre Phase III non-inferiority trial, comparing dexamethasone versus placebo for 6-8 weeks in addition to standard anti-tuberculosis treatment in HIV-uninfected patients with TBM stratified by LTA4H genotype. The primary endpoint will be death or new neurological event. The trial will enrol approximately 720 HIV-uninfected adults with a clinical diagnosis of TBM, from two hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 640 participants with CC or CT- LTA4H genotype will be randomised to either dexamethasone or placebo, and the remaining TT- genotype participants will be treated with standard-of-care dexamethasone. We will also perform a randomised comparison of three management strategies for anti-tuberculosis DILI. An identical ancillary study will also be perfomed in the linked randomised controlled trial of dexamethasone in HIV-infected adults with TBM (ACT HIV).  Discussion: Previous data have shown that LTA4H genotype may be a critical determinant of inflammation and consequently of adjunctive anti-inflammatory treatment response in TBM. We will stratify dexamethasone therapy according to LTA4H genotype in HIV-uninfected adults, which may indicate a role for targeted anti-inflammatory therapy according to variation in LTA4H C/T transition. A comparison of DILI management strategies may allow the safe continuation of rifampicin and isoniazid.

Predictors of CD4 cell recovery following initiation of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-1 positive patients with well-estimated dates of seroconversion

OBJECTIVES

To investigate factors that predict speed of recovery and long-term CD4 cell count in HIV-1 seroconverters initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), and to quantify the influence of very early treatment initiation. We make use of all pre-treatment CD4 counts, because analyses using only a single observation at initiation may be subject to biases.

METHODS

We used data from the CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) multinational cohort collaboration of HIV-1 seroconverters. We analysed pre- and post-treatment data of patients with seroconversion dates estimated January 2003-March 2014 (n = 7600 for primary analysis) using a statistical model in which the characteristics of recovery in CD4 counts are determined by multiple predictive factors. Secondary analyses were performed incorporating uncertainty in the exact timing of seroconversion to allow more precise estimation of the benefit of very early treatment initiation.

RESULTS

'True' CD4 count at cART initiation was the strongest predictor of CD4 count beyond 3 years on cART. Allowing for lack of complete certainty in the date of seroconversion, CD4 recovery was more rapid for patients in whom treatment was initiated within 4 months. For a given CD4 count, higher viral load (VL) at initiation was strongly associated with higher post-treatment CD4 recovery. For other patient and drug characteristics, associations with recovery were statistically significant but small in magnitude.

CONCLUSIONS

CD4 count at cART initiation is the most important factor in predicting post-treatment recovery, but VL provides substantial additional information. If cART is initiated in the first 4 months following seroconversion, recovery of CD4 counts appears to be more rapid.

Prognostic Models for 9-Month Mortality in Tuberculous Meningitis

Background

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. We developed and validated prognostic models for 9-month mortality in adults with TBM, with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

Methods

We included 1699 subjects from 4 randomized clinical trials and 1 prospective observational study conducted at 2 major referral hospitals in Southern Vietnam from 2001-2015. Modeling was based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The final prognostic models were validated internally and temporally and were displayed using nomograms and a Web-based app (https://thaole.shinyapps.io/tbmapp/).

Results

951 HIV-uninfected and 748 HIV-infected subjects with TBM were included; 219 of 951 (23.0%) and 384 of 748 (51.3%) died during 9-month follow-up. Common predictors for increased mortality in both populations were higher Medical Research Council (MRC) disease severity grade and lower cerebrospinal fluid lymphocyte cell count. In HIV-uninfected subjects, older age, previous tuberculosis, not receiving adjunctive dexamethasone, and focal neurological signs were additional risk factors; in HIV-infected subjects, lower weight, lower peripheral blood CD4 cell count, and abnormal plasma sodium were additional risk factors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the final prognostic models were 0.77 (HIV-uninfected population) and 0.78 (HIV-infected population), demonstrating better discrimination than the MRC grade (AUC, 0.66 and 0.70) or Glasgow Coma Scale score (AUC, 0.68 and 0.71) alone.

Conclusions

The developed models showed good performance and could be used in clinical practice to assist physicians in identifying patients with TBM at high risk of death and with increased need of supportive care.

Stability and predictiveness of multiple trigger and episodic viral wheeze in preschoolers

BACKGROUND

In 2008, the European Respiratory Society Task Force proposed the terms multiple-trigger wheeze (MTW) and episodic (viral) wheeze (EVW) for children with wheezing episodes. We determined MTW and EVW prevalence, their 24-month stability and predictiveness for asthma.

METHODS

In total, 565 preschoolers (1-, 2- and 3-year-olds) in primary care with respiratory symptoms were followed until the age of 6 years when asthma was diagnosed. MTW status and EVW status were determined using questionnaire data collected at baseline and after one and 2 years. We distinguished 3 phenotypes and determined their 24-month stability, also accounting for treatment with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Logistic regression was used to analyse the phenotypes' associations with asthma.

RESULTS

Two hundred and eighty-one children had complete information. MTW and EVW were stable in 10 of 281 (3.6%) and 24 of 281 (8.5%), respectively. The odds of developing asthma for children with stable MTW and stable EVW were 14.4 (1.7-119) and 3.6 (1.2-11.3) times greater than those for children free of wheeze (for at least 1 year). ICS was associated with increased stability of MTW and EVW.

CONCLUSIONS

Stable multiple-trigger and stable episodic viral wheeze are relatively uncommon. However, 1- to 3-year-olds with stable MTW are at much increased risk of asthma.

Nomogram for survival analysis in the presence of competing risks

Clinical research usually involves time-to-event survival analysis, in which the presence of a competing event is prevalent. It is acceptable to use the conventional Cox proportional hazard regression to model cause-specific hazard. However, this cause-specific hazard cannot directly translate to the cumulative incidence function, and the latter is usually clinically relevant. The subdistribution hazard regression directly quantifies the impact of covariates on the cumulative incidence. When estimating the subdistribution hazard, subjects experiencing competing event continue to contribute to the risk set, and censoring weights are assigned to them after the competing event time. The weights are the conditional probability that a subject remains uncensored, and can be modelled to depend on the covariates of a subject. The first option to perform regression on the subdistribution hazard was the crr() function in the cmprsk package. However, it is not straightforward to draw a nomogram, which is a user-friendly tool for risk prediction, with the crr() function. To overcome this problem, we show an alternative method to use a nomogram function based on result of subdistribution hazard modeling.

Effect of Age and Sex on the QTc Interval in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 and 2 Long-QT Syndrome

BACKGROUND

In congenital long-QT syndrome, age, sex, and genotype have been associated with cardiac events, but their effect on the trend in QTc interval has never been established. We, therefore, aimed to assess the effect of age and sex on the QTc interval in children and adolescents with type 1 (LQT1) and type 2 (LQT2) long-QT syndrome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

QTc intervals of 12-lead resting electrocardiograms were determined, and trends over time were analyzed using a linear mixed-effects model. The study included 278 patients with a median follow-up of 4 years (interquartile range, 1-9) and a median number of 6 (interquartile range, 2-10) electrocardiograms per patient. Both LQT1 and LQT2 male patients showed QTc interval shortening after the onset of puberty. In LQT2 male patients, this was preceded by a progressive QTc interval prolongation. In LQT1, after the age of 12 years, male patients had a significantly shorter QTc interval than female patients. In LQT2, during the first years of life and from 14 to 26 years, male patients had a significantly shorter QTc interval than female patients. On the contrary, between 5 and 14 years, LQT2 male patients had significantly longer QTc interval than LQT2 female patients.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a significant effect of age and sex on the QTc interval in long-QT syndrome, with a unique pattern per genotype. The age of 12 to 14 years is an important transitional period. In the risk stratification and management of long-QT syndrome patients, clinicians should be aware of these age-, sex-, and genotype-related trends in QTc interval and especially the important role of the onset of puberty.

Increase in the prevalence of mutations associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected from early to late pregnancy in Nanoro, Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women are a high-risk group for Plasmodium falciparum infections, which may result in maternal anaemia and low birth weight newborns, among other adverse birth outcomes. Intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during pregnancy (IPTp-SP) is widely implemented to prevent these negative effects of malaria. However, resistance against SP by P. falciparum may decrease efficacy of IPTp-SP. Combinations of point mutations in the dhps (codons A437, K540) and dhfr genes (codons N51, C59, S108) of P. falciparum are associated with SP resistance. In this study the prevalence of SP resistance mutations was determined among P. falciparum found in pregnant women and the general population (GP) from Nanoro, Burkina Faso and the association of IPTp-SP dosing and other variables with mutations was studied.

METHODS

Blood spots on filter papers were collected from pregnant women at their first antenatal care visit (ANC booking) and at delivery, from an ongoing trial and from the GP in a cross-sectional survey. The dhps and dhfr genes were amplified by nested PCR and products were sequenced to identify mutations conferring resistance (ANC booking, n = 400; delivery, n = 223; GP, n = 400). Prevalence was estimated with generalized estimating equations and for multivariate analyses mixed effects logistic regression was used.

RESULTS

The prevalence of the triple dhfr mutation was high, and significantly higher in the GP and at delivery than at ANC booking, but it did not affect birth weight. Furthermore, quintuple mutations (triple dhfr and double dhps mutations) were found for the first time in Burkina Faso. IPTp-SP did not significantly affect the occurrence of any of the mutations, but high transmission season was associated with increased mutation prevalence in delivery samples. It is unclear why the prevalence of mutations was higher in the GP than in pregnant women at ANC booking.

CONCLUSION

The high number of mutants and the presence of quintuple mutants in Burkina Faso confirm concerns about the efficacy of IPTp-SP in the near future. Other drug combinations to tackle malaria in pregnancy should, therefore, be explored. An increase in mutation prevalence due to IPTp-SP dosing could not be confirmed.