Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Reperfusion strategy and late clinical outcomes of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the absence of standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs)

Introduction

There is growing evidence that patients presenting with STEMI in the absence of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs; smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes) have poorer outcomes compared to those with atleast one SMuRF. It has been hypothesised that this may be in part due to decreased administration of pharmacotherapies in the post-infarct period due to perceived low risk. Long term outcomes of patients without SMuRFs based on reperfusion strategy received during the index admission have not been investigated.

Purpose

We sought to analyse late clinical outcomes of STEMI patients with and without SMuRFs based on reperfusion strategy received during the index admission.

Methods

All patients who underwent PCI between 2003 and 2014 were identified from a PCI centre STEMI database. Late clinical outcomes of patients with and without SMuRFs were analysed overall and based on reperfusion strategy [primary PCI (pPCI) vs pharmaco-invasive PCI (PI-PCI)]. Propensity matching was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics between the groups.

Results

Amongst 2,091 STEMI patients, 531 (25%) had no SMuRFs (51% pPCI, 49% PI-PCI) and 1560 (75%) had ≥1 SMuRF (52% pPCI, 48% PI-PCI). Unadjusted late mortality in SMuRF-less patients was 13.4% (18.8% pPCI, 7.7% PI-PCI) and for those with ≥1 SMuRF was 9.7% (11.0% pPCI, 8.4% PI-PCI). After propensity-matching clinical and angiographic characteristics, 5 year mortality rates were significantly higher for patients without SMuRFs compared to those with SMuRFs [HR 1.36, CI: 1.03–1.81, p=0.031]. This difference was attenuated for patients who underwent pPCI [HR 1.72, CI: 1.22–2.43, p=0.002]. Interestingly, this discrepancy was not observed amongst individuals who underwent pharmaco-invasive PCI [HR 1.13, CI: 0.53–1.48, p=0.638], as SMuRF-less patients had similar mortality rates to their counterparts. Long term rates of reinfarction, stent thrombosis and target vessel revascularisation were similar between the groups. Additionally, there was no significant difference in rates of stroke and major bleeding amongst all 4 subgroups.

Conclusion

Patients presenting with STEMI in the absence of SMuRFs have increased overall late mortality compared to those with at least one SMuRF. However, this difference was not observed in patients who underwent a pharmaco-invasive strategy, whereby patients without SMuRFs had similar outcomes to those with SMuRFs after adjusting for confounders. Our findings suggest the use of a pharmaco-invasive strategy in appropriate SMuRF-less patients presenting with STEMI.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Impact of reproductive factors on major cardiovascular disease risk in women: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in women. Multiple observational studies have explored the role of female reproductive history on the risk of cardiovascular disease and suggested that factors such as high parity and early menarche are associated with higher rates of cardiovascular disease later in life. However, effect estimates derived from observational studies are liable to influence by residual confounding and bias in study design. We utilise Mendelian randomisation to explore causal pathways underlying this association by leveraging genetic variability in reproductive factors using instrumental variable analysis.

Methods

Uncorrelated single nucleotide polymorphisms (r2<0.001) were extracted from summary statistics of published sex-specific genome wide association studies (GWAS) for the exposures of age at first birth (n=131,987, unit = years), number of live births (n=193,953, coded into three categories of <2, 2 or >2 live births), age at menarche (n=329,345, unit = years) and age at menopause (n=106,048, unit = years). Genetic association estimates for the outcomes of coronary artery disease, ischaemic stroke, stroke of any type, heart failure and atrial fibrillation were extracted from GWAS analyses on respectively 122,733 cases, 34,217 cases, 40,585 cases, 47,309 cases and 60,620 cases. All GWAS studies were on populations of predominantly European ancestry. Inverse-variance weighted MR was utilised for primary analyses; sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger and weighted median MR were carried out.

Results

Earlier age at first birth was associated with increased risk of coronary artery disease (OR per 1-year lower age = 1.49, 95% CI 1.28–1.74, p<0.001). Lower age at menarche was also associated with increased risk of coronary artery disease (OR per 1-year lower age = 1.10, 95% CI 1.06–1.14, p<0.001) and increased risk of heart failure (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07–1.17, p<0.001). Finally, higher number of live births was associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (OR per increase in category of <2, 2 or >2 live births = 2.91, 95% CI 1.16–7.29, p=0.023), increased risk of heart failure (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.28–2.82, p=0.001), increased risk of ischaemic stroke (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.22–3.52, p=0.007) and of stroke of any type (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.03–3.37, p=0.039).

Conclusion

The results of this study support the emerging evidence of female-specific risk factors for cardiovascular disease, by demonstrating that that earlier age at first birth, higher number of live births, and earlier menarche are all associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity in women. The results notably highlight parity as a major sex-specific risk factor of likely causal relevance. These findings support the inclusion of reproductive history in the routine evaluation of cardiovascular risk in females and identify key markers of risk that may be used to target primary prevention measures.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Research Council GEPSI 946647 for EAWSBritish Heart Foundation RG/16/3/32175 for FSN

Selenium concentration and cardiovascular disease risk: Mendelian randomization study

Background/Introduction

Selenium has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in observational studies; however, the causality of the association remains unestablished.

Purpose

To examine the associations of selenium concentrations with 15 CVDs using Mendelian randomization analysis.

Methods

Genetic variants significantly associated with concentrations of toenail and blood (TAB) and blood selenium in mild linkage disequilibrium (r2 <0.3) were used as instrumental variables. Summary-level data for 15 CVDs were obtained from the UK Biobank study (n=367,561), FinnGen study (n=218,792), and six international consortia. The inverse variance weighted method accounting for linkage disequilibrium was used to estimate the associations. Results for one outcome from different sources were combined using the fixed effect meta-analysis method. Bonferroni correction was used to account for multiple testing, and associations with P value ≤0.003 (0.05 / 15 outcomes) were described as significant. Associations with P value between ≤0.05 and >0.003 were regarded as suggestive associations.

Results

Genetically predicted concentrations of TAB selenium were not significantly associated with the risk of the 15 CVDs. However, there were suggestive associations of genetically predicted higher concentrations of TAB selenium with increased risk of atrial fibrillation and peripheral artery disease. The odds ratio per one-unit increase in log-transformed concentrations of TAB selenium was 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 1.01–1.12; P=0.019) for atrial fibrillation and 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.38; P=0.008) for peripheral artery disease. We observed no associations between genetically predicted blood selenium concentrations and risk of the 15 CVDs.

Conclusions

Genetically predicted higher concentrations of TAB or blood selenium were not associated with a lower risk of CVD, which suggests that high selenium status may not prevent CVD development. The suggestive positive associations of TAB selenium with atrial fibrillation and peripheral artery disease warrants verification.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Alcohol consumption and telomere length: Mendelian randomization clarifies alcohol's effects

Alcohol's impact on telomere length, a proposed marker of biological aging, is unclear. We performed the largest observational study to date (in n = 245,354 UK Biobank participants) and compared findings with Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates. Two-sample MR used data from 472,174 participants in a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of telomere length. Genetic variants were selected on the basis of associations with alcohol consumption (n = 941,280) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) (n = 57,564 cases). Non-linear MR employed UK Biobank individual data. MR analyses suggested a causal relationship between alcohol traits, more strongly for AUD, and telomere length. Higher genetically-predicted AUD (inverse variance-weighted (IVW) β = -0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.10 to -0.02, p = 0.001) was associated with shorter telomere length. There was a weaker association with genetically-predicted alcoholic drinks weekly (IVW β = -0.07, CI: -0.14 to -0.01, p = 0.03). Results were consistent across methods and independent from smoking. Non-linear analyses indicated a potential threshold relationship between alcohol and telomere length. Our findings indicate that alcohol consumption may shorten telomere length. There are implications for age-related diseases.

Combining mutation and horizontal gene transfer in a within-host model of antibiotic resistance

Antibiotics are used extensively to control infections in humans and animals, usually by injection or a course of oral tablets. There are several methods by which bacteria can develop antimicrobial resistance (AMR), including mutation during DNA replication and plasmid mediated horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We present a model for the development of AMR within a single host animal. We derive criteria for a resistant mutant strain to replace the existing wild-type bacteria, and for co-existence of the wild-type and mutant. Where resistance develops through HGT via conjugation we derive criteria for the resistant strain to be excluded or co-exist with the wild-type. Our results are presented as bifurcation diagrams with thresholds determined by the relative fitness of the bacteria strains, expressed in terms of reproduction numbers. The results show that it is possible that applying and then relaxing antibiotic control may lead to the bacterial load returning to pre-control levels, but with an altered structure with regard to the variants that comprise the population. Removing antimicrobial selection pressure will not necessarily reduce AMR and, at a population level, other approaches to infection prevention and control are required, particularly when AMR is driven by both mutation and mobile genetic elements.

POS0295 NO CAUSAL EFFECTS OF GENETICALLY DETERMINED SERUM URATE LEVELS ON THE RISK OF ALL-CAUSE AND SITE-SPECIFIC CANCER: A MENDELIAN RANDOMIZATION STUDY

Background:

Positive associations between urate levels and gout and the risk of some cancer types (urogenital, prostate, gastrointestinal and lung) have been reported in a number of observational studies; however, whether the relationship is causal remains uncertain.

Objectives:

The study aim was to evaluate a causal effect of genetically determined serum urate (SU) concentrations on cancer risks (overall and major cancer types) in individuals with European ancestry using Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses design.

Methods:

We used the individual-level data from two population-based Swedish cohorts including middle-aged subjects (mean follow-up = 21.2 years), Malmö Diet Cancer and Malmö Preventive Project (MDC/MPP), for one-sample MR setting. Data from a total of 17,597 individuals (n = 17,597 for SU at baseline, diagnoses during follow-up: 5659 for all-cause, 516 for bladder, 545 for lung, 791 for bowel, 1521 for prostate and 729 for breast cancer) was included. For two-sample MR, summary-statistic data for SU was obtained from Global Urate Genetic Consortium (GUGC: n = 110,347), while UK-Biobank data was employed for several major cancer outcomes (n = 36,815 for all-cause, 2,245 for bladder, 2,590 for lung, 4,488 for bowel, 6,474 for prostate and 10,274 for breast cancer). The definitions for cancer endpoints were matched for ICD9 and 10 codes between MDC/MPP and UK-Biobank cohorts. For both MR settings, a set of 26 urate-associated single nucleotide variants was selected to build-up the SU instrument (SU-instr) to test for a causal effect of SU on cancer outcomes. Statistical analysis, adjusted for age and sex, was done using multiple conventional MR methodologies and MR package in R (v4.0.2). A p < 0.05 was designated as statistically significant.

Results:

We found no causal effect of our SU-instr on neither all-cause nor site-specific cancer across all MR analyses (all p > 0.05). In MDC/MPP, SU-instr did not show a causal effect on the risk of all-cause [OR = 1.06, p = 0.32], bladder [OR = 0.96, p = 0.84], lung [OR = 1.26, p = 0.17], bowel [OR = 0.96, p = 0.81], prostate [OR = 1.05, p = 0.62], and breast [OR = 0.99, p = 0.98] cancer. Similar findings were made in the two-sample settings. Detailed results are provided in Table 1.

Conclusion:

Our MR study, using a series of causal inference approaches, does not support a causal effect of genetically determined SU for major cancer outcomes. There is no evidence to support changing SU levels by lifestyle or pharmacological intervention to attenuate the risk of major cancer types.

Table 1.

Results from a range of MR analyses for causal effect of SU on cancer risk in MDC/MPP (one-sample MR) and GUGC and UK-Biobank (two-sample MR) cohorts

One-sample MRCancer typeIVW2SLSGRSOR(95% CI)p-causalp-HetOR(95% CI)p-causalOR(95% CI)p-causalBladder0.96(0.68; 1.36)0.840.550.99(0.70; 1.42)0.990.94(0.67; 1.34)0.76Lung1.26(0.90; 1.77)0.170.891.29(0.91; 1.82)0.141.26(0.90; 1.77)0.17Bowel0.96(0.72; 1.28)0.810.440.95(0.72; 1.27)0.770.97(0.73; 1.28)0.83Prostate1.05(0.84; 1.31)0.620.841.04(0.83; 1.30)0.721.04(0.83; 1.30)0.69Breast0.99(0.74; 1.33)0.980.110.98(0.73; 1.32)0.920.98(0.73; 1.32)0.94All-cause1.06(0.93; 1.21)0.320.61.07(0.94; 1.21)0.281.07(0.94; 1.21)0.29Two-sample MRCancer typeIVWWeighted medianMR-EggerOR(95% CI)p-causalp-HetOR(95% CI)p-causalOR(95% CI)p-causalBladder1.02(0.88; 2.16)0.770.361.03(0.86; 2.10)0.71.03(0.83; 2.13)0.75Lung0.86(0.73; 1.08)0.070.040.86(0.73; 1.09)0.090.84(0.66; 1.16)0.15Bowel0.82(0.69; 1.02)0.03< 0.00010.89(0.78; 1.06)0.060.92(0.72;1.67)0.52Prostate1.00(0.91; 2.64)0.970.720.98(0.88; 2.17)0.770.94(0.83; 1.45)0.37Breast0.97(0.88; 1.95)0.670.00021.00(0.91; 2.70)0.990.95(0.81; 1.59)0.46All-cause0.96(0.90; 1.20)0.18< 0.00010.97(0.92; 1.23)0.210.93(0.86; 1.12)0.11

OR; odds ratio, 95% CI; 95% confidence interval, IVW; Inverse variance weighted method, 2SLS; two-stage least square, GRS; genetic risk score, p-Het; p-value for heterogeneity.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

Cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle behaviours in relation to longevity: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association introduced the Life's Simple 7 initiative to improve cardiovascular health by modifying cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle behaviours. It is unclear whether these risk factors are causally associated with longevity.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate causal associations of Life's Simple 7 modifiable risk factors, as well as sleep and education, with longevity using the two-sample Mendelian randomization design.

METHODS

Instrumental variables for the modifiable risk factors were obtained from large-scale genome-wide association studies. Data on longevity beyond the 90^th survival percentile were extracted from a genome-wide association meta-analysis with 11,262 cases and 25,483 controls whose age at death or last contact was ≤ the 60^th survival percentile.

RESULTS

Risk factors associated with a lower odds of longevity included the following: genetic liability to type 2 diabetes (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84;0.92), genetically predicted systolic and diastolic blood pressure (per 1-mmHg increase: 0.96; 0.94;0.97 and 0.95; 0.93;0.97), body mass index (per 1-SD increase: 0.80; 0.74;0.86), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (per 1-SD increase: 0.75; 0.65;0.86) and smoking initiation (0.75; 0.66;0.85). Genetically increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (per 1-SD increase: 1.23; 1.08;1.41) and educational level (per 1-SD increase: 1.64; 1.45;1.86) were associated with a higher odds of longevity. Fasting glucose and other lifestyle factors were not significantly associated with longevity.

CONCLUSION

Most of the Life's Simple 7 modifiable risk factors are causally related to longevity. Prevention strategies should focus on modifying these risk factors and reducing education inequalities to improve cardiovascular health and longevity.

Impact of stereoacuity on simulated cataract surgery ability

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There exists a long-standing perception that diminished stereoacuity has a detrimental effect on microsurgical ability and skills acquisition. This has potential implications on the enrolment of surgical trainees into ophthalmology and other microsurgery specialities. However, strong evidence in this area is lacking. This case-control study aims to establish the exact level of stereopsis impairment at which a statistical drop in surgical performance occurs.

METHODS

Fifty participants were enrolled from the University of Dundee Medical School and the NHS Tayside Foundation Doctor programme. Participants were assessed for their stereopsis level before completing an orientation module on an ophthalmic surgical simulator. They were then required to repeat a task four times. Automated and objective performance levels were recorded and analysed.

RESULTS

Nineteen (38%) had stereopsis lower than the defined normal of 60 seconds of arc (arcsec). Statistical analysis found no correlation between visual acuity and surgical performance. No statistical difference was found between performance scores and stereoacuities of 30, 60 and 120 arcsec. A statistically significant difference was discovered in the surgical performance of participants with a stereoacuity worse than 120 arcsec (total score = -69.85) as compared to the ones with a stereoacuity of 120 arcsec or better (total score = -42.23) with p = 0.010.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of a specific level of stereopsis where statistical degradation of surgical performance occurs. The findings of this work may help formulate policy on stereoacuity standards required to commence microsurgical training.

P187 Late outcomes of all patients at a single center with diabetes mellitus undergoing SYNTAX scoring after angiographic screening for the FREEDOM trial

Background

The Future Revascularization Evaluation in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: Optimal Management of Multi-Vessel Disease (FREEDOM) trial randomized only a minority of screened patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and 2-3 vessel disease (MVD), representing an high risk diabetic MVD cohort.

Methods

Consecutive patients with DM underwent angiographic screening from June 2006  to March 2010 at Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, Australia, for the FREEDOM trial; SYNTAX Scores (SS) were subsequently performed. Patients had late follow-up to determine late rates of death, non-fatal MI and stroke.

Results

Among 1263 patients with DM 833 (66%) had 0-1 vessel disease and 430 (34%) had MVD of whom 139 had prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and SS were 0 in 272, 1-9 in 336, 10-22 in 264, 23-32 in 109, and 271 patients had SS ≥33. Revascularisation was performed by coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in 139 (11%), 486 (38%) underwent PCI, and 638 (51%) did not undergo a revascularization procedure; respective mean ages were 63.5, 64.2 and 64.7 years; p = 0.39, and presentation rates with an ACS were 52%, 57% and 37%; p &lt; 0.05. Amongst patients with MVD, those undergoing CABG had lower rates of MACE than either PCI or medical therapy (22%, 40%, and 51% respectively; p &lt; 0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves (Figure) with respect to SS and late events are shown for: A) Death; B) Non-fatal MI; C) Death/MI/Stroke; D) Late Revascularization. Multi-variable analyses found independent predictors of late mortality were age &gt;75 (HR 6.2), prior MI (HR 1.1), prior CABG (HR 1.6); and LVEF &lt;40% (all p &lt; 0.05). Predictors of late MI were older age, ACS presentation at screening, LVEF &lt; 40% and insulin use.

Conclusions

Among diabetic patients who screened for the FREEDOM Trial, among 34% with MVD CABG was associated with lower rates of non-fatal MI and MACE compared to PCI and medical therapy. The poorest outcomes were observed in DM patients with MVD managed with medical therapy alone.

Abstract P187 Figure. SYNTAX scores &late events in diabetics

P333Late mortality after pharmaco-invasive PCI for STEMI

Background

Worldwide, and in Australia, a large proportion of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are unable to undergo timely primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and so are transferred for PCI after receiving fibrinolytic therapy (so-called pharmaco-invasive PCI).

Methods

Our Hospital, the primary PCI centre for Southwest Sydney, Australia receives patients for both primary PCI and transferred post- fibrinolytic therapy for rescue or prognostic PCI. Associations were determined between late outcomes (bleeding according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) criteria and mortality) and reperfusion strategy, either primary PCI, or pharmaco-invasive PCI, in patients undergoing PCI for STEMI during hospitalization.

Results

Among 2083 consecutive patients (80% male) with STEMI who underwent PCI (1076 [52%] primary PCI and 1007 [48%] pharmaco-invasive PCI), mortality at 3 years was 8.7%,11.1% after primary PCI and 6.2% after pharmaco-invasive PCI (9.4% after rescue PCI and 4.6% after prognostic PCI); p<0.001 (Figure). Rates of type 2–5 BARC bleeding post-PCI were 35% after primary PCI and 24% after pharmaco-invasive PCI (42% after rescue PCI and 15% after prognostic PCI); p<0.001. while the rate of major bleeding type 3b-5 were 5% after primary PCI and 3% after pharmaco-invasive PCI (8% after rescue PCI and 1% after prognostic PCI); p=0.112.The independent predictors of 3 year mortality were, pre-PCI cardiogenic shock HR=0.25 [95% CI: 0.16–0.39], p<0.001), age (HR=1.05 [95% CI: 1.03–1.06], p<0.001), TIMI 3 flow post-PCI (HR=5.25 [95% CI: 2.51–11.00], p≤0.001), eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2 (HR=2.90 [95% CI: 1.93–4.34], p≤0.001), post PCI bleeding (HR=2.17 [95% CI: 1.53–3.08], p≤0.001), anterior infarction (HR=1.76 [95% CI: 1.23–2.51], p=0.002), and female gender (HR=1.56 [95% CI: 1.07–2.27], p=0.022); and primary PCI (HR=1.6 [95% CI: 1.18–2.19; p=0.003]. On multi-variable analysis, age, cardiogenic shock presentation, rescue PCI, intra-aortic balloon pump, Pre-procedural anaemia, (all p<0.001) and eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2 (p=0.006) were associated with bleeding.

Figure 1. Late survival after primary & PI PCI

Conclusion

Among patients with STEMI who underwent pharmaco-invasive PCI had lower mortality rates than to those who had primary PCI, though procedural selection criteria may have been different; bleeding rates were similar. Among suitable patients pharmaco-invasive PCI should be evaluated in large clinical trials.

P6443Late outcomes in patients undergoing PCI for ST elevation myocardial infarction with respect to diabetic status and completeness of revascularisation

Objectives

This paper examines the degree to which the poor prognosis of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) can be attributed to incomplete revascularization (ICR).

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of death for patients with DM; patients with DM often have complex coronary disease and ICR. In STEMI the relative impact of DM and ICR is uncertain as these two factors frequently co-exist, the potential for confounding is high.

Methods and results

Of 589 consecutive STEMI patients, 22% had DM, who compared to patients without DM were of similar age (59 years), were more often female, had more hypertension and dyslipidaemia, but less often were smokers. A residual SYNTAX Score (rSS) >8, which defined ICR, occurred in 33%. Late cardiac death [median 3.5 years] was 4% among those without DM and 12% in those with DM (p=0.002) (p<0.001), and was 3% among 396 with rSS≤8 and 12% in 193 patients with rSS>8 (p<0.001). Patients with both ICR and DM accounted for only 8% of the STEMI population but 30% of all cardiac deaths. At final follow up (3.5 years) cardiac death rates (see Figure) were 22% in patients with both DM and ICR; these were significantly higher than rates in patients with ICR but no-DM (9%, p=0.034), and those with DM and rSS≤8 (6%, p<0.019). Multivariable analysis for cardiac death found a HR for ICR of 2.89 (95% CI 1.31–6.37; p=0.009) and a HR for DM of 5.18 (95% CI 2.45–10.97, p<0.001).

Diabetes, cardiac death & rSS

Conclusions

While ICR in DM patients with STEMI predicts a significantly poorer outcome, the poor prognosis seen in patients with DM is not explained by the degree of ICR alone. Both ICR and DM contribute independently to the risk of cardiac death in STEMI patients.

Multiple resistance to macrocyclic lactones in the sheep scab mite Psoroptes ovis

The astigmatid mite Psoroptes ovis (Acari: Proroptidae) causes the highly contagious and debilitating ovine disease, sheep scab. This ectoparasitic infection has a high economic and animal welfare impact on British sheep farming. Following recent work demonstrating resistance of Psoroptes mites to moxidectin, a widely used macrocyclic lactone (ML) treatment for scab, the current study compared the toxicity of three of the commonly administered macrocylic lactone therapeutic treatments (moxidectin, ivermectin and doramectin) to P. ovis from outbreak populations that had appeared unresponsive to treatment. These outbreak populations were from Wales and south west England. The data presented demonstrate that there is resistance to all three available ML compounds in populations of Psoroptes mites. However, considerable variation in response suggested that resistance alone was not responsible for the reported lack of efficacy in all of the submitted cases; lack of response in others may be associated with inappropriate treatment application or management. These data highlight the importance of the appropriate use of these compounds to manage national scab incidence at levels that are consistent with acceptable animal welfare standards, while attempting to reduce the development and spread of resistance.

Effectiveness and response predictors of omalizumab in a severe allergic asthma population with a high prevalence of comorbidities: the Australian Xolair Registry

BACKGROUND

Severe asthma is a high impact disease. Omalizumab targets the allergic inflammatory pathway; however, effectiveness data in a population with significant comorbidities are limited.

AIMS

To describe severe allergic asthma, omalizumab treatment outcomes and predictors of response among the Australian Xolair Registry participants.

METHODS

A web-based post-marketing surveillance registry was established to characterise the use, effectiveness and adverse effects of omalizumab (Xolair) for severe allergic asthma.

RESULTS

Participants (n = 192) (mean age 51 years, 118 female) with severe allergic asthma from 21 clinics in Australia were assessed, and 180 received omalizumab therapy. They had poor asthma control (Asthma Control Questionnaire, ACQ-5, mean score 3.56) and significant quality of life impairment (Asthma-related Quality of Life Questionnaire score 3.57), and 52% were using daily oral corticosteroid (OCS). Overall, 95% had one or more comorbidities (rhinitis 48%, obesity 45%, cardiovascular disease 23%). The omalizumab responder rate, assessed by an improvement of at least 0.5 in ACQ-5, was high at 83%. OCS use was significantly reduced. The response in participants with comorbid obesity and cardiovascular disease was similar to those without these conditions. Baseline ACQ-5 ≥ 2.0 (P = 0.002) and older age (P = 0.05) predicted the magnitude of change in ACQ-5 in response to omalizumab. Drug-related adverse events included anaphylactoid reactions (n = 4), headache (n = 2) and chest pains (n = 1).

CONCLUSION

Australian patients with severe allergic asthma report a high disease burden and have extensive comorbidity. Symptomatic response to omalizumab was high despite significant comorbid disease. Omalizumab is an effective targeted therapy for severe allergic asthma with comorbidity in a real-life setting.

Assessing causality in associations between cannabis use and schizophrenia risk: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observational associations between cannabis and schizophrenia are well documented, but ascertaining causation is more challenging. We used Mendelian randomization (MR), utilizing publicly available data as a method for ascertaining causation from observational data.

METHOD

We performed bi-directional two-sample MR using summary-level genome-wide data from the International Cannabis Consortium (ICC) and the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with cannabis initiation (p < 10-5) and schizophrenia (p < 5 × 10-8) were combined using an inverse-variance-weighted fixed-effects approach. We also used height and education genome-wide association study data, representing negative and positive control analyses.

RESULTS

There was some evidence consistent with a causal effect of cannabis initiation on risk of schizophrenia [odds ratio (OR) 1.04 per doubling odds of cannabis initiation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.07, p = 0.019]. There was strong evidence consistent with a causal effect of schizophrenia risk on likelihood of cannabis initiation (OR 1.10 per doubling of the odds of schizophrenia, 95% CI 1.05-1.14, p = 2.64 × 10-5). Findings were as predicted for the negative control (height: OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.90) but weaker than predicted for the positive control (years in education: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, p = 0.066) analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide some that cannabis initiation increases the risk of schizophrenia, although the size of the causal estimate is small. We find stronger evidence that schizophrenia risk predicts cannabis initiation, possibly as genetic instruments for schizophrenia are stronger than for cannabis initiation.

Multidrug resistant Enterobacteriaceae in New Zealand: a current perspective

In this article we review mechanisms and potential transmission pathways of multidrug resistance in Enterobacteriaceae, with an emphasis on extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-production. This provides background to better understand challenges presented by this important group of antimicrobial resistant bacteria, and inform measures aimed at prevention and control of antimicrobial resistance in general. Humans and animals interact at various levels; household pets cohabit with humans, and other animals interact with people through direct contact, as well as through the food chain and the environment. These interactions offer opportunity for bacteria such as ESBL-producers to be shared and transmitted between species and, in turn, increase the risk of zoonotic and reverse-zoonotic disease transmission. A key step in curtailing antimicrobial resistance is improved stewardship of antimicrobials, including surveillance of their use, better infection-control and prevention, and a better understanding of prescribing practice in both veterinary and medical professions in New Zealand. This will also require prospective observational studies to examine risk factors for antimicrobial resistance. Due to the interconnectedness of humans, animals and the environment actions to effect the changes required should be undertaken using a One Health approach.

Real-life effectiveness of omalizumab in severe allergic asthma above the recommended dosing range criteria

BACKGROUND

Omalizumab (Xolair) dosing in severe allergic asthma is based on serum IgE and bodyweight. In Australia, patients eligible for omalizumab but exceeding recommended ranges for IgE (30-1500 IU/mL) and bodyweight (30-150 kg) may still receive a ceiling dose of 750 mg/4 weeks. About 62% of patients receiving government-subsidized omalizumab are enrolled in the Australian Xolair Registry (AXR).

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether AXR participants above the recommended dosing ranges benefit from omalizumab and to compare their response to within-range participants.

METHODS

Data were stratified according to dose range status (above-range or within-range). Further sub-analyses were conducted according to the reason for being above the dosing range (IgE only vs. IgE and weight).

RESULTS

Data for 179 participants were analysed. About 55 (31%) were above recommended dosing criteria; other characteristics were similar to within-range participants. Above-range participants had higher baseline IgE [812 (IQR 632, 1747) IU/mL vs. 209 (IQR 134, 306) IU/mL] and received higher doses of omalizumab [750 (IQR 650, 750) mg] compared to within-range participants [450 (IQR, 300, 600) mg]. At 6 months, improvements in Juniper 5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ-5, 3.61 down to 2.01 for above-range, 3.47 down to 1.93 for within-range, P < 0.0001 for both) and Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ mean score (3.22 up to 4.41 for above-range, 3.71 up to 4.88 for within-range, P < 0.0001) were observed in both groups. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁ ) improved among above-range participants. There was no difference in response between above-range and within-range participants. Above-range participants due to either IgE alone or IgE and weight had similar improvements in ACQ-5, AQLQ and FEV₁ .

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Patients with severe allergic asthma above recommended dosing criteria for omalizumab have significantly improved symptom control, quality of life and lung function to a similar degree to within-range participants, achieved without dose escalation above 750 mg.

Aerobic and resistance training improves mood state among adults living with HIV

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the effects of combined aerobic and resistance exercise training among self-reported mood disturbances, perceived stress, frequency of self-reported symptoms, and symptom distress in a sample of HIV+ adults. For this purpose, 49 participants were randomly assigned into an exercise (EX) or control (CON) group. Those in the EX group completed 50 min of supervised aerobic and resistance training at a moderate intensity twice a week for 6 weeks. The CON group reported to the university and engaged in sedentary activities. Data were collected at baseline before randomization and 6 weeks post intervention. Measures included the symptom distress scale (SDS), perceived stress scale (PSS), profile of mood states (POMS) total score, and the POMS sub-scale for depression and fatigue. A 2 way ANOVA was used to compare between and within group interactions. The EX group showed a significant decrease in reported depression scores (p=0.03) and total POMS (p=0.003). The CON group reported no change in POMS or SDS, but showed a significant increase in PSS. These findings indicate that combination aerobic and resistance training completed at a moderate intensity at least twice a week provides additional psychological benefits independent of disease status and related symptoms.

Clinical performance of bleeding risk scores for predicting major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding events in patients receiving warfarin

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulant therapy is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhage, which can be assessed by bleeding risk scores. We evaluated the performance of five validated scores for predicting major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding events in patients receiving warfarin.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted an ambispective, single-center cohort study of 321 consecutive patients enrolled in an academic anticoagulation clinic. The following scores were calculated: modified Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, Contemporary Bleeding Risk Model, HEMORR(2)HAGES (Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke), ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation), and HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile International Normalized Ratio, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol). Main outcomes were major bleeding and a composite of major plus clinically relevant non-major bleeding. Incidence rates for all group were 3.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0-6.4) and 11.9 (95% CI 8.6-16.4) events per 100 patient-years for major bleeding and major plus clinically relevant non-major bleeding, respectively. Agreement among the five scores was low to moderate (Kendall's tau-b coefficients 0.22-0.54). For major bleeding, the c-statistics ranged from 0.606 to 0.735, whereas for major plus clinically relevant non-major bleeding, they ranged from 0.549 to 0.613. For all scores, the 95% CI for the c-statistics crossed 0.5 or was very close. Among high-risk patients, the hazard ratios for major bleeding ranged from 0.90 to 39.01, whereas for major plus clinically relevant non-major bleeding, they ranged from 1.52 to 8.71. For intermediate-risk patients, no score, except the Contemporary Bleeding Risk Model, produced statistically significant hazard ratios.

CONCLUSION

The scores demonstrated poor agreement and low to moderate discriminatory ability. General clinical implementation of these scores cannot be recommended yet.

Improved single- and multi-contact life-time testing of dental restorative materials using key characteristics of the human masticatory system and a force/position-controlled robotic dental wear simulator

This paper presents a new in vitro wear simulator based on spatial parallel kinematics and a biologically inspired implicit force/position hybrid controller to replicate chewing movements and dental wear formations on dental components, such as crowns, bridges or a full set of teeth. The human mandible, guided by passive structures such as posterior teeth and the two temporomandibular joints, moves with up to 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) in Cartesian space. The currently available wear simulators lack the ability to perform these chewing movements. In many cases, their lack of sufficient DOF enables them only to replicate the sliding motion of a single occlusal contact point by neglecting rotational movements and the motion along one Cartesian axis. The motion and forces of more than one occlusal contact points cannot accurately be replicated by these instruments. Furthermore, the majority of wear simulators are unable to control simultaneously the main wear-affecting parameters, considering abrasive mechanical wear, which are the occlusal sliding motion and bite forces in the constraint contact phase of the human chewing cycle. It has been shown that such discrepancies between the true in vivo and the simulated in vitro condition influence the outcome and the quality of wear studies. This can be improved by implementing biological features of the human masticatory system such as tooth compliance realized through the passive action of the periodontal ligament and active bite force control realized though the central nervous system using feedback from periodontal preceptors. The simulator described in this paper can be used for single- and multi-occlusal contact testing due to its kinematics and ability to exactly replicate human translational and rotational mandibular movements with up to 6 DOF without neglecting movements along or around the three Cartesian axes. Recorded human mandibular motion and occlusal force data are the reference inputs of the simulator. Experimental studies of wear using this simulator demonstrate that integrating the biological feature of combined force/position hybrid control in dental material testing improves the linearity and reduces the variability of results. In addition, it has been shown that present biaxially operated dental wear simulators are likely to provide misleading results in comparative in vitro/in vivo one-contact studies due to neglecting the occlusal sliding motion in one plane which could introduce an error of up to 49% since occlusal sliding motion D and volumetric wear loss V(loss) are proportional.