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Dickman LT, Jonko AK, Linn RR, Altintas I, Atchley AL, Bär A, Collins AD, Dupuy J, Gallagher MR, Hiers JK, Hoffman CM, Hood SM, Hurteau MD, Jolly WM, Josephson A, Loudermilk EL, Ma W, Michaletz ST, Nolan RH, O'Brien JJ, Parsons RA, Partelli‐Feltrin R, Pimont F, Resco de Dios V, Restaino J, Robbins ZJ, Sartor KA, Schultz‐Fellenz E, Serbin SP, Sevanto S, Shuman JK, Sieg CH, Skowronski NS, Weise DR, Wright M, Xu C, Yebra M, Younes N. Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects. New Phytol 2023; 238:952-970. [PMID: 36694296 PMCID: PMC10952334 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.
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Affiliation(s)
- L. Turin Dickman
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Alexandra K. Jonko
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Rodman R. Linn
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Ilkay Altintas
- San Diego Supercomputer Center and Halicioglu Data Science InstituteUniversity of California San DiegoLa JollaCA92093USA
| | - Adam L. Atchley
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Andreas Bär
- Department of BotanyUniversity of Innsbruck6020InnsbruckAustria
| | - Adam D. Collins
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Jean‐Luc Dupuy
- Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM)INRAe84914AvignonFrance
| | | | | | - Chad M. Hoffman
- Department of Forest and Rangeland StewardshipColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523USA
| | - Sharon M. Hood
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceMissoulaMT59801USA
| | | | - W. Matt Jolly
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceMissoulaMT59801USA
| | - Alexander Josephson
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | | | - Wu Ma
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Sean T. Michaletz
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research CentreThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCV6T 1Z4Canada
| | - Rachael H. Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney UniversityPenrithNSW2753Australia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research HubWollongongNSW2522Australia
| | | | | | - Raquel Partelli‐Feltrin
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research CentreThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCV6T 1Z4Canada
| | - François Pimont
- Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM)INRAe84914AvignonFrance
| | - Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Sciences and EngineeringSouthwest University of Science and TechnologyMianyang621010China
- Department of Crop and Forest Sciences and JRU CTFC‐AGROTECNIOUniversitat de LleidaLleida25198Spain
| | - Joseph Restaino
- Fire and Resource Assessment ProgramCalifornia Department of Forestry and Fire ProtectionSouth Lake TahoeCA96155USA
| | - Zachary J. Robbins
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Karla A. Sartor
- Environmental Protection and Compliance DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Emily Schultz‐Fellenz
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Shawn P. Serbin
- Environmental and Climate Sciences DepartmentBrookhaven National LaboratoryUptonNY11973USA
| | - Sanna Sevanto
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Jacquelyn K. Shuman
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Terrestrial Sciences SectionNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCO80305USA
| | - Carolyn H. Sieg
- Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceFlagstaffAZ86001USA
| | | | - David R. Weise
- Pacific Southwest Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceRiversideCA92507USA
| | - Molly Wright
- Cibola National ForestUSDA Forest ServiceAlbuquerqueNM87113USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth & Environmental Sciences DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA
| | - Marta Yebra
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
- School of EngineeringAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
| | - Nicolas Younes
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraACT2601Australia
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Mozelewski TG, Robbins ZJ, Scheller RM. Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity. Conserv Biol 2022; 36:e13904. [PMID: 35212035 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13904] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for four ecologically relevant species guilds that represent endpoints along a spectrum of vagility and habitat specificity: long- versus short-distance dispersal ability and habitat specialists versus generalists. We applied our method to central North Carolina and incorporated landscape dynamics, including forest growth, succession, disturbance, and management. Landscape connectivity improved for specialist species under all conservation strategies employed, although increases were highly variable across strategies. For generalist species, connectivity improvements were negligible. Overall, clustering the development of new protected areas around land already designated for conservation yielded the largest improvements in connectivity; increases were several orders of magnitude beyond current landscape connectivity for long- and short-distance dispersing specialist species. Conserving the lowest cost land contributed the least to connectivity. Our approach provides insight into the connectivity contributions of a suite of conservation alternatives prior to on-the-ground implementation and, therefore, can inform connectivity planning to maximize conservation benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tina G Mozelewski
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Zachary J Robbins
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Robert M Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
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3
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Robbins ZJ, Loudermilk EL, Reilly MJ, O'Brien JJ, Jones K, Gerstle CT, Scheller RM. Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Zachary J. Robbins
- Forestry and Environmental Resources Department North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - E. Louise Loudermilk
- Southern Research Station, Center for Forest Disturbance Science Athens Prescribed Fire Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service Athens Georgia USA
| | - Matthew J. Reilly
- Pacific Northwest Research Station Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment, U.S. Forest Service Corvallis Oregon USA
| | - Joseph J. O'Brien
- Southern Research Station, Center for Forest Disturbance Science Athens Prescribed Fire Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service Athens Georgia USA
| | - Kate Jones
- Center for Geospatial Analytics North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - Christopher T. Gerstle
- Forestry and Environmental Resources Department North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - Robert M. Scheller
- Forestry and Environmental Resources Department North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
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Robbins ZJ, Xu C, Aukema BH, Buotte PC, Chitra-Tarak R, Fettig CJ, Goulden ML, Goodsman DW, Hall AD, Koven CD, Kueppers LM, Madakumbura GD, Mortenson LA, Powell JA, Scheller RM. Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:509-523. [PMID: 34713535 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2021] [Revised: 09/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%-30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%-40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%-20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary J Robbins
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division (EES-14), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division (EES-14), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Brian H Aukema
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Polly C Buotte
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Rutuja Chitra-Tarak
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Michael L Goulden
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Devin W Goodsman
- Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Alexander D Hall
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Charles D Koven
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Lara M Kueppers
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Gavin D Madakumbura
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Leif A Mortenson
- Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Davis, California, USA
| | - James A Powell
- Mathematics and Statistics Department, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Robert M Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
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