Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

Restoration and fuel hazard reduction result in equivalent reductions in crown fire behavior in dry conifer forests

Over the past several decades, the management of historically frequent-fire forests in the western United States has received significant attention due to the linked ecological and social risks posed by the increased occurrence of large, contiguous patches of high-severity fire. As a result, efforts are underway to simultaneously reduce potential fire and fuel hazards and restore characteristics indicative of historical forest structures and ecological processes that enhance the diversity and quality of wildlife habitat across landscapes. Despite widespread agreement on the need for action, there is a perceived tension among scientists concerning silvicultural treatments that modify stands to optimally reduce potential fire behavior (fuel hazard reduction) versus those that aim to emulate historical forest structures and create structurally complex stands (restoration). In this work, we evaluated thinning treatments in the Black Hills National Forest that exemplify the extremes of a treatment continuum that ranges from fuel hazard reduction to restoration. The goal of this work was to understand how the differing three-dimensional stand structures created by these treatment approaches altered potential fire behavior. Our results indicate that restoration treatments created higher levels of vertical and horizontal structural complexity than the fuel hazard reduction treatments but resulted in similar reductions to potential crown fire behavior. There were some trade-offs identified as the restoration treatments created larger openings, which generated faster mean rates of fire spread; however, these increased spread rates did not translate to higher levels of canopy consumption. Overall, our results suggest that treatments can create vertical and horizontal complexity desired for restoration and wildlife habitat management while reducing fire hazard and that they can be used in concert with traditional fuel hazard reduction treatments to reduce landscape scale fire risk. We also provide some suggestions to land managers seeking to design and implement prescriptions that emulate historical structures and enhance forest complexity.

Pyric tree spatial patterning interactions in historical and contemporary mixed conifer forests, California, USA

Tree spatial patterns in dry coniferous forests of the western United States, and analogous ecosystems globally, were historically aggregated, comprising a mixture of single trees and groups of trees. Modern forests, in contrast, are generally more homogeneous and overstocked than their historical counterparts. As these modern forests lack regular fire, pattern formation and maintenance is generally attributed to fire. Accordingly, fires in modern forests may not yield historically analogous patterns. However, direct observations on how selective tree mortality among pre-existing forest structure shapes tree spatial patterns is limited. In this study, we (a) simulated fires in historical and contemporary counterpart plots in a Sierra Nevadan mixed-conifer forest, (b) estimated tree mortality, and (c) examined tree spatial patterns of live trees before and after fire, and of fire-killed trees. Tree mortality in the historical period was clustered and density-dependent, because trees were aggregated and segregated by tree size before fire. Thus, fires maintained an aggregated distribution of tree groups. Tree mortality in the contemporary period was widespread, except for dispersed large trees, because most trees were a part of large, interconnected tree groups. Thus, postfire tree patterns were more uniform and devoid of moderately sized tree groups. Postfire tree patterns in the historical period, unlike the contemporary period, were within the historical range of variability identified for the western United States. This divergence suggests that decades of forest dynamics without significant disturbances have altered the historical means of pyric pattern formation. Our results suggest that ecological silvicultural treatments, such as forest restoration thinnings, which emulate qualities of historical forests may facilitate the reintroduction of fire as a means to reinforce forest structural heterogeneity.

Forest Restoration and Fuels Reduction: Convergent or Divergent?

For over 20 years, forest fuel reduction has been the dominant management action in western US forests. These same actions have also been associated with the restoration of highly altered frequent-fire forests. Perhaps the vital element in the compatibility of these treatments is that both need to incorporate the salient characteristics that frequent fire produced—variability in vegetation structure and composition across landscapes and the inability to support large patches of high-severity fire. These characteristics can be achieved with both fire and mechanical treatments. The possible key to convergence of fuel reduction and forest restoration strategies is integrated planning that permits treatment design flexibility and a longer-term focus on fire reintroduction for maintenance. With changing climate conditions, long-term forest conservation will probably need to be focused on keeping tree density low enough (i.e., in the lower range of historic variation) for forest conditions to adapt to emerging disturbance patterns and novel ecological processes.

Comparison of Elemental Composition of Pistol Bullets by Atomic Absorption: Preliminary Study

A method is presented for the determination of antimony, copper, bismuth, and silver in bullet leads by atomic absorption. Interference in the determination of these elements from high lead concentrations was studied. Bullets of the same caliber, produced by 3 different manufacturers, can be distinguished based on the antimony concentration alone. Measurable variations in the concentrations of antimony, copper, bismuth, and silver exist and can be used to estimate batch differences in lead produced by the same manufacturer.

Informing CONOPS and medical countermeasure deployment strategies after an improvised nuclear device detonation: the importance of delayed treatment efficacy data

Purpose: In the wake of a nuclear detonation, individuals with acute radiation syndrome will be a significant source of morbidity and mortality. Mathematical modeling can compare response strategies developed for real-world chaotic conditions after a nuclear blast in order to identify optimal strategies for administering effective treatment to these individuals. To maximize responders' abilities to save lives it is critical to understand how treatment efficacy is impacted by real-world conditions and levels of supportive care. To illustrate the importance of these factors, we developed a mathematical model of cytokine administration 24 h after the blast with varying levels of supportive care described in the primary literature.Conclusion: The results highlight the proportionally higher life-saving benefit of administering cytokines to individuals with a moderate to high dose of radiation exposure, compared to those with a lower dose. However, the fidelity of mathematical models is dependent on the primary data informing them. We describe the data needed to fully explore the impact of timing, dosage, and fractional benefit of cytokines and supportive care treatment in non-optimal situations that could be seen after a nuclear detonation. Studies addressing these types of knowledge gaps are essential to evaluating the relative efficacy of countermeasures to refine existing plans and help develop new strategies and priorities.

Elevated preoperative von Willebrand factor is associated with perioperative thrombosis in infants and neonates with congenital heart disease

Essentials Perioperative thrombosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in congenital heart disease. Neonates and infants undergoing repair of congenital heart lesions were prospectively followed. Elevated von Willebrand factor (VWF) to ADAMTS-13 activity ratios typified the postoperative period. Thrombosis was associated with preoperative VWF activity and cryoprecipitate transfusion SUMMARY: Background The surgical repair of congenital heart malformations is frequently complicated by perioperative thrombosis of unclear etiology. An imbalance between von Willebrand factor (VWF) and ADAMTS-13 is an emerging variable in thrombosis. Objectives To describe perioperative changes to VWF, ADAMTS-13 and NETosis, and evaluate clinical and biochemical associations with postoperative thrombosis. Methods Neonates and infants undergoing palliation or definitive surgical repair of congenital heart malformations were recruited (n = 133). Preoperative and postoperative plasma levels of VWF, ADAMTS-13 and markers of NETosis were determined. Patients were followed for up to 30 days for the occurrence of thrombosis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify variables associated with thrombosis. Results We identified significant postoperative increases in VWF activity, VWF level, DNA-histone complexes and cell-free DNA with an overall decrease in ADAMTS-13 activity. Patients experiencing postoperative thrombotic events (9%) were characterized by surgery performed at a lower intraoperative temperature, higher preoperative lactic acid levels, and higher preoperative VWF activity and level. A multivariate logistic regression model identified preoperative VWF activity (odds ratio (OR) 8.39 per IU mL-1 , 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.73-40.55) and transfusion of cryoprecipitate (OR 1.10 per mL kg-1 , 95% CI 1.03-1.17) as being associated with thrombosis. Conclusions Pediatric patients undergoing surgical repair of congenital heart malformations are exposed to high levels of VWF with diminished or minimal change to ADAMTS-13 in the immediate postoperative period. Elevated preoperative VWF activity is associated with postoperative thrombosis in pediatric congenital heart disease.

The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.

Indications of proton-dominated cosmic-ray composition above 1.6 EeV

We report studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray composition via analysis of depth of air shower maximum (X(max)), for air shower events collected by the High-Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) observatory. The HiRes data are consistent with a constant elongation rate d<X(max)>/d[log(E)] of 47.9+/-6.0(stat)+/-3.2(syst) g/cm2/decade for energies between 1.6 and 63 EeV, and are consistent with a predominantly protonic composition of cosmic rays when interpreted via the QGSJET01 and QGSJET-II high-energy hadronic interaction models. These measurements constrain models in which the galactic-to-extragalactic transition is the cause of the energy spectrum ankle at 4x10(18) eV.

Discovery of localized regions of excess 10-TeV cosmic rays

The 7 year data set of the Milagro TeV observatory contains 2.2 x 10(11) events of which most are due to hadronic cosmic rays. These data are searched for evidence of intermediate scale structure. Excess emission on angular scales of approximately 10 degrees has been found in two localized regions of unknown origin with greater than 12sigma significance. Both regions are inconsistent with pure gamma-ray emission with high confidence. One of the regions has a different energy spectrum than the isotropic cosmic-ray flux at a level of 4.6sigma, and it is consistent with hard spectrum protons with an exponential cutoff, with the most significant excess at approximately 10 TeV. Potential causes of these excesses are explored, but no compelling explanations are found.

First observation of the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin suppression

The High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) experiment has observed the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin suppression (called the GZK cutoff) with a statistical significance of five standard deviations. HiRes' measurement of the flux of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays shows a sharp suppression at an energy of 6 x 10(19) eV, consistent with the expected cutoff energy. We observe the ankle of the cosmic-ray energy spectrum as well, at an energy of 4 x 10(18) eV. We describe the experiment, data collection, and analysis and estimate the systematic uncertainties. The results are presented and the calculation of the statistical significance of our observation is described.

Evidence for TeV gamma-ray emission from a region of the galactic plane

Gamma-ray emission from a narrow band at the galactic equator has previously been detected up to 30 GeV. We report evidence for a TeV gamma-ray signal from a region of the galactic plane by Milagro, a large-field-of-view water Cherenkov detector for extensive air showers. An excess with a significance of 4.5 standard deviations has been observed from the region of galactic longitude l E (40 degrees, 100 degrees) and latitude /b/ < 5 degrees. Under the assumption of a simple power law spectrum, with no cutoff in the EGRET-Milagro energy range, the measured integral flux is phi gamma(>3.5 TeV) = (6.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 2.1) x 10(-11) cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1). This flux is consistent with an extrapolation of the EGRET spectrum between 1 and 30 GeV in this galactic region.

Measurement of the flux of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays from monocular observations by the High Resolution Fly's Eye experiment

We have measured the cosmic ray spectrum above 10(17.2) eV using the two air-fluorescence detectors of the High Resolution Fly's Eye observatory operating in monocular mode. We describe the detector, phototube, and atmospheric calibrations, as well as the analysis techniques for the two detectors. We fit the spectrum to a model consisting of galactic and extragalactic sources.

Evidence for TeV Emission from GRB 970417a

Milagrito, a detector sensitive to very high energy gamma rays, monitored the northern sky from 1997 February through 1998 May. With a large field of view and a high duty cycle, this instrument was well suited to perform a search for TeV gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). We report on a search made for TeV counterparts to GRBs observed by BATSE. BATSE detected 54 GRBs within the field of view of Milagrito during this period. An excess of events coincident in time and space with one of these bursts, GRB 970417a, was observed by Milagrito. The excess has a chance probability of 2.8x10-5 of being a fluctuation of the background. The probability for observing an excess at least this large from any of the 54 bursts is 1.5x10-3. No significant correlations were detected from the other bursts.

TeV Observations of Markarian 501 with the Milagrito Water Cerenkov Detector

The Milagrito water Cerenkov detector near Los Alamos, New Mexico, was operated as a sky monitor at energies of a few TeV between 1997 February and 1998 May, including the period of the strong, long-lasting 1997 flare of Markarian 501. Milagrito served as a test run for the full Milagro detector. An event excess with a significance of 3.7 sigma from Markarian 501 was observed, in agreement with expectations.

Ontogenetic adaptation and learning: a developmental constraint in learning for a thermal reinforcer

Hoffman, Flory, and Alberts (1999) demonstrated that 1-, 5-, and 11-day-old rats in a cool environment (25 degrees C) acquired an operant head-turning response when rewarded with a 20-s warming of the platform on which they lay. In the current experiment 5- and 11-day-old rats in a hot environment (40 degrees C) acquired the head-turning response when rewarded with a 20-s cooling of the platform on which they lay, but 1-day-olds did not. The concept of ontogenetic adaptation helps us interpret these results: Neonatal thermotaxis constrains the 1-day-olds from learning a novel operant response for a cool reinforcer in a hot environment. Because the thermotaxis wanes from birth, it is not as strong in 5- and 11-day-old pups that are thus able to learn the operant for a cool reinforcer.

Neonatal thermotaxis improves reversal of a thermally reinforced operant response

One-, 5-, and 11-day-old rats in a cool environment (25 degrees C) acquired an operant response when rewarded with a 20-s-long warming of the platform (from 25 to 36 degrees C) on which they lay. In Experiment 1, the head-turning response was learned by pups at all ages. When the contingency was reversed so that pups were reinforced for turning to the side opposite that correct during training, the original response extinguished for 1-day-olds, but not for 5- or 11-day-olds. In Experiment 2, the rewarded side was randomly selected for each trial. One-day-olds perseverated in turning to the side correct on that trial while the reinforcer remained on, but 5- and 11-day-old rat pups did not. We conclude that 1-day-old pups were more responsive to the change in experimental contingency in Experiment 1 due to this thermotaxic behavior.

Hypoplastic inferior vena cava with aplasia of the right kidney and absence of the right adrenal gland

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Use of Neutron Activation Analysis for the Characterization of Paper

A controlled study was carried out on 600 samples of various types of white and colored paper obtained from 10 different paper manufacturers with known production histories and dates. Neutron activation analysis was employed to measure the characterizing trace elemental compositions. Results indicated that (1) the papers examined were uniform with respect to their trace elemental compositions, (2) papers produced by different manufacturers are readily distinguishable qualitatively and/or quantitatively, (3) different batches of paper produced by the same manufacturer are generally qualitatively similar if produced within a short span of time (however, these specimens can be distinguished by quantitative analysis of the trace elements), and (4) different batches of paper produced by the same manufacturer at least 1 year apart are readily distinguishable qualitatively and/or quantitatively.

Neutron Activation and Atomic Absorption Analyses of Chemical Elements in Soil

Procedures are described for the determination of about 20 chemical elements in soil by NAA and AAA. It is shown that the combination of these techniques is particularly suitable for soil analysis, because a large number of both major and minor elements can be determined with good precision and accuracy.

Identification of Bullet Holes by Residue Transfer

Antimony and copper residues deposited on the bullet surface after explosion of a pistol cartridge were measured by neutron activation analysis. The amount of residue wiped from the bullet surface upon passage through various target materials was determined. Correlations were found between the residue deposited on the target material and the bullet jacketing, caliber, and configuration

Comparison of Adhesive Tapes by Neutron Activation Analysis

Adhesive tapes were compared by nondestructive gamma-ray spectrometry. Results show that neutron activation analysis can he used to characterize tapes through their elemental composition. Differences between manufacturers as well as hatch-tobatch and in-batch variations can be measured by neutron activation analysis.

Activation Analysis of Drugs

Activation analysis has been employed to compare and determine the source of manufacture of drugs. The irradiations were carried out with the DASA-TRIGA1 and Naval Research Laboratory nuclear reactors,2 and the induced radionuclides were identified by nondestructive gamma-ray spectrometry. The results show that the technique can be a useful tool for the identification of trace elements which serve to characterize drugs.