Sex-based differences in risk factors for incident myocardial infarction and stroke in the UK Biobank

AIM

This study examined sex-based differences in associations of vascular risk factors with incident cardiovascular events in the UK Biobank.

METHODS

Baseline participant demographic, clinical, laboratory, anthropometric, and imaging characteristics were collected. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate independent associations of vascular risk factors with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke for men and women. Women-to-men ratios of hazard ratios (RHRs), and related 95% confidence intervals, represent the relative effect-size magnitude by sex.

RESULTS

Among the 363 313 participants (53.5% women), 8470 experienced MI (29.9% women) and 7705 experienced stroke (40.1% women) over 12.66 [11.93, 13.38] years of prospective follow-up. Men had greater risk factor burden and higher arterial stiffness index at baseline. Women had greater age-related decline in aortic distensibility. Older age [RHR: 1.02 (1.01-1.03)], greater deprivation [RHR: 1.02 (1.00-1.03)], hypertension [RHR: 1.14 (1.02-1.27)], and current smoking [RHR: 1.45 (1.27-1.66)] were associated with a greater excess risk of MI in women than men. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with excess MI risk in men [RHR: 0.90 (0.84-0.95)] and apolipoprotein A (ApoA) was less protective for MI in women [RHR: 1.65 (1.01-2.71)]. Older age was associated with excess risk of stroke [RHR: 1.01 (1.00-1.02)] and ApoA was less protective for stroke in women [RHR: 2.55 (1.58-4.14)].

CONCLUSION

Older age, hypertension, and smoking appeared stronger drivers of cardiovascular disease in women, whereas lipid metrics appeared stronger risk determinants for men. These findings highlight the importance of sex-specific preventive strategies and suggest priority targets for intervention in men and women.

Congenital duodenal obstruction repair with and without transanastomotic tube feeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of transanastomotic tube (TAT) feeding in congenital duodenal obstruction (CDO).

DESIGN

Systematic review with meta-analysis.

PATIENTS

Infants with CDO requiring surgical repair.

INTERVENTIONS

TAT feeding following CDO repair versus no TAT feeding.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was time to full enteral feeds. Additional outcomes included use of parenteral nutrition (PN), cost and complications from either TAT or central venous catheter. Meta-analyses were undertaken using random-effects models (mean difference (MD) and risk difference (RD)), and risk of bias was assessed using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool.

RESULTS

Twelve out of 373 articles screened met the inclusion criteria. All studies were observational and two were prospective. Nine studies, containing 469 infants, were available for meta-analysis; however, four were excluded due to serious or critical risk of bias. TAT feeding was associated with reduced time to full enteral feeds (-3.34; 95% CI -4.48 to -2.20 days), reduced duration of PN (-6.32; 95% CI -7.93 to -4.71 days) and reduction in nutrition cost of £867.36 (95% CI £304.72 to £1430.00). Other outcomes were similar between those with and without a TAT including inpatient length of stay (MD -0.97 (-5.03 to 3.09) days), mortality (RD -0.01 (-0.04 to 0.01)) and requirement for repeat surgery (RD 0.01 (-0.03 to 0.05)).

CONCLUSION

TAT feeding following CDO repair appears beneficial, without increased risk of adverse events; however, certainty of available evidence is low. Earlier enteral feeding and reduced PN use are known to decrease central venous catheter-associated risks while significantly reducing cost of care.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022328381.

DNA methylation of insulin signaling pathways is associated with HOMA2-IR in primary myoblasts from older adults

BACKGROUND

While ageing is associated with increased insulin resistance (IR), the molecular mechanisms underlying increased IR in the muscle, the primary organ for glucose clearance, have yet to be elucidated in older individuals. As epigenetic processes are suggested to contribute to the development of ageing-associated diseases, we investigated whether differential DNA methylation was associated with IR in human primary muscle stem cells (myoblasts) from community-dwelling older individuals.

METHODS

We measured DNA methylation (Infinium HumanMethylationEPIC BeadChip) in myoblast cultures from vastus lateralis biopsies (119 males/females, mean age 78.24 years) from the Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study extension (HSSe) and examined differentially methylated cytosine phosphate guanine (CpG) sites (dmCpG), regions (DMRs) and gene pathways associated with HOMA2-IR, an index for the assessment of insulin resistance, and levels of glycated hemoglobin HbA1c.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight dmCpGs (false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05) were associated with HOMA2-IR, with dmCpGs enriched in genes linked with JNK, AMPK and insulin signaling. The methylation signal associated with HOMA2-IR was attenuated after the addition of either BMI (6 dmCpGs), appendicular lean mass index (ALMi) (7 dmCpGs), grip strength (15 dmCpGs) or gait speed (23 dmCpGs) as covariates in the model. There were 8 DMRs (Stouffer < 0.05) associated with HOMA2-IR, including DMRs within T-box transcription factor (TBX1) and nuclear receptor subfamily-2 group F member-2 (NR2F2); the DMRs within TBX1 and NR2F2 remained associated with HOMA2-IR after adjustment for BMI, ALMi, grip strength or gait speed. Forty-nine dmCpGs and 21 DMRs were associated with HbA1c, with cg13451048, located within exoribonuclease family member 3 (ERI3) associated with both HOMA2-IR and HbA1c. HOMA2-IR and HbA1c were not associated with accelerated epigenetic ageing.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that insulin resistance is associated with differential DNA methylation in human primary myoblasts with both muscle mass and body composition making a significant contribution to the methylation changes associated with IR.

Characterizing the hypertensive cardiovascular phenotype in the UK Biobank

AIMS

To describe hypertension-related cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) phenotypes in the UK Biobank considering variations across patient populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 39 095 (51.5% women, mean age: 63.9 ± 7.7 years, 38.6% hypertensive) participants with CMR data available. Hypertension status was ascertained through health record linkage. Associations between hypertension and CMR metrics were estimated using multivariable linear regression adjusting for major vascular risk factors. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, ethnicity, time since hypertension diagnosis, and blood pressure (BP) control. Results are standardized beta coefficients, 95% confidence intervals, and P-values corrected for multiple testing. Hypertension was associated with concentric left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (increased LV mass, wall thickness, concentricity index), poorer LV function (lower global function index, worse global longitudinal strain), larger left atrial (LA) volumes, lower LA ejection fraction, and lower aortic distensibility. Hypertension was linked to significantly lower myocardial native T1 and increased LV ejection fraction. Women had greater hypertension-related reduction in aortic compliance than men. The degree of hypertension-related LV hypertrophy was greatest in Black ethnicities. Increasing time since diagnosis of hypertension was linked to adverse remodelling. Hypertension-related remodelling was substantially attenuated in hypertensives with good BP control.

CONCLUSION

Hypertension was associated with concentric LV hypertrophy, reduced LV function, dilated poorer functioning LA, and reduced aortic compliance. Whilst the overall pattern of remodelling was consistent across populations, women had greater hypertension-related reduction in aortic compliance and Black ethnicities showed the greatest LV mass increase. Importantly, adverse cardiovascular remodelling was markedly attenuated in hypertensives with good BP control.

Association between subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiac structure and function-results from the UK Biobank Study

Aims

Heart failure (HF) is a major health problem and early diagnosis is important. Atherosclerosis is the main cause of HF and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) is a recognized early measure of atherosclerosis. This study aimed to investigate whether increased carotid IMT is associated with changes in cardiac structure and function in middle-aged participants of the UK Biobank Study without overt cardiovascular disease.

Methods and results

Participants of the UK Biobank who underwent CMR and carotid ultrasound examinations were included in this study. Patients with heart failure, angina, atrial fibrillation, and history of myocardial infarction or stroke were excluded. We used multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, body surface area, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, alcohol intake, and laboratory parameters. In total, 4301 individuals (61.6 ± 7.5 years, 45.9% male) were included. Multivariable linear regression analyses showed that increasing quartiles of IMT was associated with increased left and right ventricular (LV and RV) and left atrial volumes and greater LV mass. Moreover, increased IMT was related to lower LV end-systolic circumferential strain, torsion, and both left and right atrial ejection fractions (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Increased IMT showed an independent association over traditional risk factors with enlargement of all four cardiac chambers, decreased function in both atria, greater LV mass, and subclinical LV dysfunction. There may be additional risk stratification that can be derived from the IMT to identify those most likely to have early cardiac structural/functional changes.

Individualised Exercise Training Enhances Antioxidant Buffering Capacity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Exercise training is recommended for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, the mechanism(s) underlying its physiological benefits remain unclear. We investigated the effects of an individualised aerobic interval training programme on exercise capacity and redox status in IPF patients. IPF patients were recruited prospectively to an 8-week, twice-weekly cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET)-derived structured responsive exercise training programme (SRETP). Systemic redox status was assessed pre- and post-CPET at baseline and following SRETP completion. An age- and sex-matched non-IPF control cohort was recruited for baseline comparison only. At baseline, IPF patients (n = 15) had evidence of increased oxidative stress compared with the controls as judged by; the plasma reduced/oxidised glutathione ratio (median, control 1856 vs. IPF 736 p = 0.046). Eleven IPF patients completed the SRETP (median adherence 88%). Following SRETP completion, there was a significant improvement in exercise capacity assessed via the constant work-rate endurance time (+82%, p = 0.003). This was accompanied by an improvement in post-exercise redox status (in favour of antioxidants) assessed via serum total free thiols (median increase, +0.26 μmol/g protein p = 0.005) and total glutathione concentration (+0.73 μM p = 0.03), as well as a decrease in post-exercise lipid peroxidation products (-1.20 μM p = 0.02). Following SRETP completion, post-exercise circulating nitrite concentrations were significantly lower compared with baseline (-0.39 μM p = 0.04), suggestive of exercise-induced nitrite utilisation. The SRETP increased both endurance time and systemic antioxidant capacity in IPF patients. The observed reduction in nitrite concentrations provides a mechanistic rationale to investigate nitrite/nitrate supplementation in IPF patients.

Parent-Offspring Associations in Body Composition: Findings From the Southampton Women's Survey Prospective Cohort Study

CONTEXT

Children born to parents who are overweight or obese have a high risk of adult obesity, but it is unclear if transgenerational associations relating to unfavorable body composition differ by parent.

OBJECTIVE

To examine differential mother-offspring and father-offspring associations in body composition in early childhood.

METHODS

A total of 240 mother-father-offspring trios from a prospective UK population-based pre-birth cohort (Southampton Women's Survey) were included for anthropometry and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry assessment of whole-body-less-head body composition in the offspring at 3 different ages (4, 6-7, and 8-9 years) and in the mother and father at the 8- to 9-year offspring visit. Associations were assessed using linear regression adjusting for the other parent.

RESULTS

Positive associations between mother-daughter body mass index (BMI) and fat mass were observed at ages 6 to 7 (BMI: β = .29 SD/SD, 95% CI = .10, .48; fat mass β = .27 SD/SD, 95% CI = .05, .48) and 8 to 9 years (BMI: β = .33 SD/SD, 95% CI = .13, .54; fat mass β = .31 SD/SD, 95% CI = .12, .49), with similar associations at age 4 years but bounding the 95% CI. The mother-son, father-son, and father-daughter associations for BMI and fat mass were weaker at each of the ages studied.

CONCLUSION

A strong association between the fat mass of mothers and their daughters but not their sons was observed. In contrast, father-offspring body composition associations were not evident. The dimorphic parent-offspring effects suggest particular attention should be given to early prevention of unfavorable body composition in girls born to mothers with excess adiposity.

Elevated Glycated Haemoglobin (HbA1c) Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A UK Biobank Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The role of dysglycaemia as a risk marker for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is uncertain. We investigated the relationship between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and incident PDAC using a retrospective cohort study within the UK Biobank.

METHODS

A study involving 499,804 participants from the UK Biobank study was undertaken. Participants were stratified by diabetes mellitus (DM) status, and then by HbA1c values < 42 mmol/mol, 42-47 mmol/mol, or ≥48 mmol/mol. Cox proportional hazard models were used to describe the association between HbA1c category (with time-varying interactions) and incident PDAC.

RESULTS

PDAC occurred in 1157 participants during 11.6 (10.9-12.3) years follow up [(median (interquartile range)]. In subjects without known DM at baseline, 12 months after recruitment, the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR, 95% CI) for incident PDAC for HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol compared to HbA1c < 42 mmol/mol (reference group) was 2.10 (1.31-3.37, p = 0.002); and was 8.55 (4.58-15.99, p < 0.001) for HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol. The association between baseline HbA1c and incident PDAC attenuated with increasing duration of time of follow-up to PDAC diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Dysglycaemia detected by elevated HbA1c is associated with an increased risk of PDAC. The strength of the association between elevated HbA1c and incident PDAC is inversely proportional to the time from detecting dysglycaemia but remains significant for at least 60 months following HbA1c testing.

Noninvasive serum biomarkers for liver fibrosis in NAFLD: current and future

In the last 20 years, noninvasive serum biomarkers to identify liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been developed, validated against liver biopsy (the gold standard for determining the presence of liver fibrosis) and made available for clinicians to use to identify ≥F3 liver fibrosis. The aim of this review is firstly to focus on the current use of widely available biomarkers and their performance for identifying ≥F3. Secondly, we discuss whether noninvasive biomarkers have a role in identifying F2, a stage of fibrosis that is now known to be a risk factor for cirrhosis and overall mortality. We also consider whether machine learning algorithms offer a better alternative for identifying individuals with ≥F2 fibrosis. Thirdly, we summarise the utility of noninvasive serum biomarkers for predicting liver related outcomes (e.g., ascites and hepatocellular carcinoma) and non-liver related outcomes (e.g., cardiovascular-related mortality and extra hepatic cancers). Finally, we examine whether serial measurement of biomarkers can be used to monitor liver disease, and whether the use of noninvasive biomarkers in drug trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can accurately, compared to liver histology, monitor liver fibrosis progression/regression. We conclude by offering our perspective on the future of serum biomarkers for the detection and monitoring of liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Cardiovascular disease and mortality sequelae of COVID-19 in the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

To examine association of COVID-19 with incident cardiovascular events in 17 871 UK Biobank cases between March 2020 and 2021.

METHODS

COVID-19 cases were defined using health record linkage. Each case was propensity score-matched to two uninfected controls on age, sex, deprivation, body mass index, ethnicity, diabetes, prevalent ischaemic heart disease (IHD), smoking, hypertension and high cholesterol. We included the following incident outcomes: myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, venous thromboembolism (VTE), pericarditis, all-cause death, cardiovascular death, IHD death. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate associations of COVID-19 with each outcome over an average of 141 days (range 32-395) of prospective follow-up.

RESULTS

Non-hospitalised cases (n=14 304) had increased risk of incident VTE (HR 2.74 (95% CI 1.38 to 5.45), p=0.004) and death (HR 10.23 (95% CI 7.63 to 13.70), p<0.0001). Individuals with primary COVID-19 hospitalisation (n=2701) had increased risk of all outcomes considered. The largest effect sizes were with VTE (HR 27.6 (95% CI 14.5 to 52.3); p<0.0001), heart failure (HR 21.6 (95% CI 10.9 to 42.9); p<0.0001) and stroke (HR 17.5 (95% CI 5.26 to 57.9); p<0.0001). Those hospitalised with COVID-19 as a secondary diagnosis (n=866) had similarly increased cardiovascular risk. The associated risks were greatest in the first 30 days after infection but remained higher than controls even after this period.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 have increased risk of incident cardiovascular events across a range of disease and mortality outcomes. The risk of most events is highest in the early postinfection period. Individuals not requiring hospitalisation have increased risk of VTE, but not of other cardiovascular-specific outcomes.

The association between number and ages of children and the physical activity of mothers: Cross-sectional analyses from the Southampton Women's Survey

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) has many health benefits, but motherhood is often associated with reduced PA. Considering that ages and number of children may be associated with maternal PA, and that PA patterns may change as children transition to formal schooling, we aimed to investigate the associations between ages and number of children and device-measured maternal PA.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses were conducted using data from 848 mothers from the Southampton Women's Survey at two different timepoints. Two-level random intercept linear models were used to investigate associations between ages (≤4y(ears) ("younger"), school-aged, both age groups) and number (1, 2, ≥3) of children, and their interaction, and accelerometer-assessed minutes of maternal moderate or vigorous PA (log-transformed MVPA) and light, moderate or vigorous PA (LMVPA).

RESULTS

Women with any school-aged children engaged in more MVPA than those with only ≤4y (e.g. % difference in minutes of MVPA [95% confidence interval]: 46.9% [22.0;77.0] for mothers with only school-aged vs only ≤4y). Mothers with multiple children did less MVPA than those with 1 child (e.g. 12.5% [-1.1;24.3] less MVPA for those with 2 children). For mothers with multiple children, those with any school-aged children did less LMVPA than those with only ≤4y (e.g. amongst mothers with 2 children, those with only school-aged children did 34.0 [3.9;64.1] mins/day less LMVPA). For mothers with any ≤4y, those with more children did more LMVPA (e.g. amongst mothers with only ≤4y, those with 2 children did 42.6 [16.4;68.8] mins/day more LMVPA than those with 1 child).

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers with multiple children and only children aged ≤4y did less MVPA. Considering that many of these women also did more LMVPA than mothers with fewer or older children, interventions and policies are needed to increase their opportunities for higher intensity PA to maximise health benefits.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04715945.

Left atrial structure and function are associated with cardiovascular outcomes independent of left ventricular measures: a UK Biobank CMR study

AIMS

We evaluated the associations of left atrial (LA) structure and function with prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of left ventricular (LV) metrics, in 25 896 UK Biobank participants.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the association of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) metrics [LA maximum volume (LAV), LA ejection fraction (LAEF), LV mass : LV end-diastolic volume ratio (LVM : LVEDV), global longitudinal strain, and LV global function index (LVGFI)] with vascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol, and smoking), prevalent and incident CVDs [atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), myocardial infarction], all-cause mortality, and CVD mortality. We created uncorrelated CMR variables using orthogonal principal component analysis rotation. All five CMR metrics were simultaneously entered into multivariable regression models adjusted for sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, education, body size, and physical activity. Lower LAEF was associated with diabetes, smoking, and all the prevalent and incident CVDs. Diabetes, smoking, and high cholesterol were associated with smaller LAV. Hypertension, IHD, AF (incident and prevalent), incident stroke, and CVD mortality were associated with larger LAV. LV and LA metrics were both independently informative in associations with prevalent disease, however LAEF showed the most consistent associations with incident CVDs. Lower LVGFI was associated with greater all-cause and CVD mortality. In secondary analyses, compared with LVGFI, LV ejection fraction showed similar but less consistent disease associations.

CONCLUSION

LA structure and function measures (LAEF and LAV) demonstrate significant associations with key prevalent and incident cardiovascular outcomes, independent of LV metrics. These measures have potential clinical utility for disease discrimination and outcome prediction.

Dichotomy in the Impact of Elevated Maternal Glucose Levels on Neonatal Epigenome

CONTEXT

Antenatal hyperglycemia is associated with increased risk of future adverse health outcomes in both mother and child. Variations in offspring's epigenome can reflect the impact and response to in utero glycemic exposure, and may have different consequences for the child.

OBJECTIVE

We examined possible differences in associations of basal glucose status and glucose handling during pregnancy with both clinical covariates and offspring cord tissue DNA methylation.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 830 mother-offspring dyads from the Growing Up in Singapore Towards Healthy Outcomes cohort. The fetal epigenome of umbilical cord tissue was profiled using Illumina HumanMethylation450 arrays. Associations of maternal mid-pregnancy fasting (fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) and 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) after a 75-g oral glucose challenge with both maternal clinical phenotypes and offspring epigenome at delivery were investigated separately.

RESULTS

Maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index, and blood pressure measures were associated with both FPG and 2hPG, whereas Chinese ethnicity (P = 1.9 × 10-4), maternal height (P = 1.1 × 10-4), pregnancy weight gain (P = 2.2 × 10-3), prepregnancy alcohol consumption (P = 4.6 × 10-4), and tobacco exposure (P = 1.9 × 10-3) showed significantly opposite associations between the 2 glucose measures. Most importantly, we observed a dichotomy in the effects of these glycemic indices on the offspring epigenome. Offspring born to mothers with elevated 2hPG showed global hypomethylation. CpGs most associated with the 2 measures also reflected differences in gene ontologies and had different associations with offspring birthweight.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that 2 traditionally used glycemic indices for diagnosing gestational diabetes may reflect distinctive pathophysiologies in pregnancy, and have differential impacts on the offspring's DNA methylome.

COVID-19 and associations with frailty and multimorbidity: a prospective analysis of UK Biobank participants

BACKGROUND

Frailty and multimorbidity have been suggested as risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease.

AIMS

We investigated, in the UK Biobank, whether frailty and multimorbidity were associated with risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19.

METHODS

502,640 participants aged 40-69 years at baseline (54-79 years at COVID-19 testing) were recruited across UK during 2006-10. A modified assessment of frailty using Fried's classification was generated from baseline data. COVID-19 test results (England) were available for 16/03/2020-01/06/2020, mostly taken in hospital settings. Logistic regression was used to discern associations between frailty, multimorbidity and COVID-19 diagnoses, after adjusting for sex, age, BMI, ethnicity, education, smoking and number of comorbidity groupings, comparing COVID-19 positive, COVID-19 negative and non-tested groups.

RESULTS

4510 participants were tested for COVID-19 (positive = 1326, negative = 3184). 497,996 participants were not tested. Compared to the non-tested group, after adjustment, COVID-19 positive participants were more likely to be frail (OR = 1.4 [95%CI = 1.1, 1.8]), report slow walking speed (OR = 1.3 [1.1, 1.6]), report two or more falls in the past year (OR = 1.3 [1.0, 1.5]) and be multimorbid (≥ 4 comorbidity groupings vs 0-1: OR = 1.9 [1.5, 2.3]). However, similar strength of associations were apparent when comparing COVID-19 negative and non-tested groups. However, frailty and multimorbidity were not associated with COVID-19 diagnoses, when comparing COVID-19 positive and COVID-19 negative participants.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Frailty and multimorbidity do not appear to aid risk stratification, in terms of positive versus negative results of COVID-19 testing. Investigation of the prognostic value of these markers for adverse clinical sequelae following COVID-19 disease is urgently needed.

Exploring the acceptability of controlled human infection with SARSCoV2-a public consultation

Rapid development of an effective vaccine for SARSCoV2 is a global priority. A controlled human infection model (CHIM) would accelerate the efficacy assessment of candidate vaccines. This strategy would require deliberate exposure of volunteers to SARSCoV2 with no currently available treatment and a small but definite risk of serious illness or death. This raises complex questions about the social and ethical acceptability of risk to individuals, given the potential benefit to the wider population, and as such, a study cannot be done without public involvement. We conducted a structured public consultation with 57 individuals aged 20-40 years to understand public attitudes to a CHIM, and pre-requisites for enrolment. The overall response to this strategy was positive, and many would volunteer altruistically. Carefully controlled infection is viewed as safer than natural exposure to wild virus. The prolonged social isolation required for the proposed CHIM is considered an obstacle but not insurmountable, with reasonable compensation and supportive care. Given the significant level of public interest, a CHIM should be done as open science with regular, controlled dissemination of information into the public domain. Importantly, there was a strong view that the final decision whether to conduct a CHIM should be in the hands of qualified and experienced clinician-scientists and the authorities.

Laboratory Comparison of Low-Cost Particulate Matter Sensors to Measure Transient Events of Pollution

Airborne particulate matter (PM) exposure has been identified as a key environmental risk factor, associated especially with diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular system and with almost 9 million premature deaths per year. Low-cost optical sensors for PM measurement are desirable for monitoring exposure closer to the personal level and particularly suited for developing spatiotemporally dense city sensor networks. However, questions remain over the accuracy and reliability of the data they produce, particularly regarding the influence of environmental parameters such as humidity and temperature, and with varying PM sources and concentration profiles. In this study, eight units each of five different models of commercially available low-cost optical PM sensors (40 individual sensors in total) were tested under controlled laboratory conditions, against higher-grade instruments for: lower limit of detection, response time, responses to sharp pollution spikes lasting <1 min , and the impact of differing humidity and PM source. All sensors detected the spikes generated with a varied range of performances depending on the model and presenting different sensitivity mainly to sources of pollution and to size distributions with a lesser impact of humidity. The sensitivity to particle size distribution indicates that the sensors may provide additional information to PM mass concentrations. It is concluded that improved performance in field monitoring campaigns, including tracking sources of pollution, could be achieved by using a combination of some of the different models to take advantage of the additional information made available by their differential response.

Protocol of a natural experiment to evaluate a supermarket intervention to improve food purchasing and dietary behaviours of women (WRAPPED study) in England: a prospective matched controlled cluster design

INTRODUCTION

Poor diet is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases and costs the National Health Service £5.8 billion annually. Product placement strategies used extensively in food outlets, like supermarkets, can influence customers' preferences. Policy-makers, including the UK Government, are considering legislation to ensure placement strategies promote healthier food purchasing and dietary habits. High-quality scientific evidence is needed to inform future policy action. This study will assess whether healthier placement strategies in supermarkets improve household purchasing patterns and the diets of more than one household member.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

This natural experiment, with a prospective matched controlled cluster design, is set in discount supermarkets across England. The primary objective is to investigate whether enhanced placement of fresh fruit and vegetables improves household-level purchasing of these products after 6 months. Secondary objectives will examine: (1) differences in intervention effects on purchasing by level of educational attainment, (2) intervention effects on the dietary quality of women and their young children, (3) intervention effects on store-level sales of fruit and vegetables and (4) cost-effectiveness of the intervention from individual, retailer and societal perspectives. Up to 810 intervention and 810 control participants will be recruited from 18 intervention and 18 matched control stores. Eligible participants will be women aged 18-45 years, who hold a loyalty card and shop in a study store. Each control store will be matched to an intervention store on: (1) sales profile, (2) neighbourhood deprivation and (3) customer profile. A detailed process evaluation will assess intervention implementation, mechanisms of impact and, social and environmental contexts.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Southampton, Faculty of Medicine Ethics Committee (ID 20986.A5). Primary, secondary and process evaluation results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and shared with policy-makers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03573973; Pre-results.

Cluster Analysis of Finite Element Analysis and Bone Microarchitectural Parameters Identifies Phenotypes with High Fracture Risk

High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) is increasingly used for exploring associations between bone microarchitectural and finite element analysis (FEA) parameters and fracture. We hypothesised that combining bone microarchitectural parameters, geometry, BMD and FEA estimates of bone strength from HRpQCT may improve discrimination of fragility fractures. The analysis sample comprised of 359 participants (aged 72-81 years) from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. Fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment. Participants underwent HRpQCT scans of the distal radius and DXA scans of the proximal femur and lateral spine. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks for the relationship between individual bone microarchitectural and FEA parameters and previous fracture. Cluster analysis of these parameters was then performed to identify phenotypes associated with fracture prevalence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that bone microarchitectural parameters improved fracture discrimination compared to aBMD alone, whereas further inclusion of FEA parameters resulted in minimal improvements. Cluster analysis (k-means) identified four clusters. The first had lower Young modulus, cortical thickness, cortical volumetric density and Von Mises stresses compared to the wider sample; fracture rates were only significantly greater among women (relative risk [95%CI] compared to lowest risk cluster: 2.55 [1.28, 5.07], p = 0.008). The second cluster in women had greater trabecular separation, lower trabecular volumetric density and lower trabecular load with an increase in fracture rate compared to lowest risk cluster (1.93 [0.98, 3.78], p = 0.057). These findings may help inform intervention strategies for the prevention and management of osteoporosis.

Evolutionary and developmental mismatches are consequences of adaptive developmental plasticity in humans and have implications for later disease risk

A discrepancy between the phenotype of an individual and that which would confer optimal responses in terms of fitness in an environment is termed 'mismatch'. Phenotype results from developmental plasticity, conditioned partly by evolutionary history of the species and partly by aspects of the developmental environment. We discuss two categories of such mismatch with reference primarily to nutrition and in the context of evolutionary medicine. The categories operate over very different timescales. A developmental mismatch occurs when the phenotype induced during development encounters a different environment post-development. This may be the result of wider environmental changes, such as nutritional transition between generations, or because maternal malnutrition or placental dysfunction give inaccurate information about the organism's likely future environment. An evolutionary mismatch occurs when there is an evolutionarily novel environment. Developmental plasticity may involve immediate adaptive responses (IARs) to preserve survival if an environmental challenge is severe, and/or predictive adaptive responses (PARs) if the challenge does not threaten survival, but there is a fitness advantage in developing a phenotype that will be better adapted later. PARs can have long-term adverse health consequences if there is a developmental mismatch. For contemporary humans, maternal constraint of fetal growth makes PARs likely even if there is no obvious IAR, and this, coupled with the pervasive nutritionally dense modern environment, can explain the widespread observations of developmental mismatch, particularly in populations undergoing nutritional transition. Both developmental and evolutionary mismatch have important public health consequences and implications for where policy interventions may be most effective. This article is part of the theme issue 'Developing differences: early-life effects and evolutionary medicine'.

Health Care Costs Associated With Muscle Weakness: A UK Population-Based Estimate

Sarcopenia and muscle weakness are responsible for considerable health care expenditure but little is known about these costs in the UK. To address this, we estimated the excess economic burden for individuals with muscle weakness regarding the provision of health and social care among 442 men and women (aged 71-80 years) who participated in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (UK). Muscle weakness, characterised by low grip strength, was defined according to the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health criteria (men < 26 kg, women < 16 kg). Costs associated with primary care consultations and visits, outpatient and inpatient secondary care, medications, and formal (paid) as well as informal care for each participant were calculated. Mean total costs per person and their corresponding components were compared between groups with and without muscle weakness. Prevalence of muscle weakness in the sample was 11%. Mean total annual costs for participants with muscle weakness were £4592 (CI £2962-£6221), with informal care, inpatient secondary care and primary care accounting for the majority of total costs (38%, 23% and 19%, respectively). For participants without muscle weakness, total annual costs were £1885 (CI £1542-£2228) and their three highest cost categories were informal care (26%), primary care (23%) and formal care (20%). Total excess costs associated with muscle weakness were £2707 per person per year, with informal care costs accounting for 46% of this difference. This results in an estimated annual excess cost in the UK of £2.5 billion.