Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccinations: a pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies involving 7.4 million adults in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Background

UK COVID-19 vaccination policy has evolved to offering COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at increased risk of severe Illness from COVID-19. Building on our analyses of vaccine effectiveness of first, second and initial booster doses, we aimed to identify individuals at increased risk of severe outcomes (i.e., COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death) post the autumn 2022 booster dose.

Methods

We undertook a national population-based cohort analysis across all four UK nations through linked primary care, vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality data. We included individuals who received autumn 2022 booster doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) or mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) during the period September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between demographic and clinical factors and severe COVID-19 outcomes after the autumn booster dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, urban/rural areas and comorbidities. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine results across the four UK nations.

Findings

Between September 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 7,451,890 individuals ≥18 years received an autumn booster dose. 3500 had severe COVID-19 outcomes (2.9 events per 1000 person-years). Being male (male vs female, aHR 1.41 (1.32-1.51)), older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; 10.43 (8.06-13.50)), underweight (BMI <18.5 vs BMI 25.0-29.9; 2.94 (2.51-3.44)), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9.45 (8.15-10.96)) had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death after the autumn booster dose. Those with a larger household size (≥11 people within household vs 2 people; 1.56 (1.23-1.98)) and from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived quintile; 1.35 (1.21-1.51)) had modestly higher risks. We also observed at least a two-fold increase in risk for those with various chronic neurological conditions, including Down's syndrome, immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, or cardiovascular disease.

Interpretation

Males, older individuals, underweight individuals, those with an increasing number of comorbidities, from a larger household or more deprived areas, and those with specific underlying health conditions remained at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the autumn 2022 vaccine booster dose. There is now a need to focus on these risk groups for investigating immunogenicity and efficacy of further booster doses or therapeutics.

Funding

National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Compliance, procrastination and refusal: American COVID-19 vaccination trust and value orientation

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy studies, most of which were completed prior to the release of the vaccine, speculated on factors that might influence inoculation intention when a vaccine was introduced. This paper examines actual vaccination decisions among US residents after COVID-19 vaccines were approved, with a focus on trust in vaccine effectiveness, increased trust in government pandemic response, and individual-versus-collective value orientation.

METHOD

The data set was from the Kaiser Family Foundation COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor, a nationally representative sample reflecting the opinions of 1519 American adults aged 18 and above. Data were collected in September 2021-approximately nine months after the first COVID-19 vaccines were approved for distribution. Indicators of trust in vaccine effectiveness included individual opinions regarding breakthrough infections and vaccine boosters. Increased trust in government indicated approval of official COVID-19 responses, and value orientation denoted respondent emphasis on personal choice versus protecting the health of others. We established three categories of a vaccine hesitancy dependent variable: none, some, and full rejection. A multinomial regression analysis was employed to compare vaccine hesitancy in three pairs of contrasting groups.

RESULTS

While we noted distinct patterns in decision-making factors for each of the contrasting pairs, we also observed strong effects for trust in vaccine effectiveness and value orientation on vaccine decisions across all three. Both effects were more substantial than those associated with three control variables-social-demographic characteristics, political party affiliation, and health risk.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that in order to increase vaccination rates, policymakers and influencers should focus on reducing individual scepticism over breakthrough infections and vaccine boosters, and on influencing a value orientation shift from personal choice to social responsibility.

HHS regions

A vaccine breakthrough infection and a rebound infection cases of COVID-19 are studied and analyzed for the ten U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions and the United States as a nation in this work. An innovative multi-strain susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-asymptomatic-symptomatic-recovered (SVEAIR) epidemic model is developed for this purpose for a population assumed to be susceptible to n-different variants of the disease, and those who are vaccinated and recovered from a specific strain k(k ≤ n) of the disease are immune to present strain and its predecessors j = 1, 2, …, k, but can still be infected by newer emerging strains j = k + 1, k + 2, …, n. The model is used to estimate epidemiological parameters, namely, the latent and infectious periods, the transmission rates, vaccination rates, recovery rates for each of the Delta B.1.617.2, Omicron B.1.1.529, and lineages BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, BA.5, BA.1.1, BA.4.6, and BA.5.2.6 for the United States and for each of the ten HHS regions. The transmission rate is estimated for both the asymptomatic and symptomatic cases. The effect of vaccines on each strain is analyzed. Condition that guarantees existence of an endemic with certain number of strains is derived and used to describe the endemic state of the population.

Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta by Omicron revealed by allele-specific PCR in wastewater

On November 26, 2021, the B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant was classified as the Omicron variant of concern (VOC). Reports of higher transmissibility and potential immune evasion triggered flight bans and heightened health control measures across the world to stem its distribution. Wastewater-based surveillance has demonstrated to be a useful complement for clinical community-based tracking of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Using design principles of our previous assays that detect SARS-CoV-2 variants (Alpha and Delta), we developed an allele-specific RT-qPCR assay which simultaneously targets the stretch of mutations from Q493R to Q498R for quantitative detection of the Omicron variant in wastewater. We report their validation against 10-month longitudinal samples from the influent of a wastewater treatment plant in Italy. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations and variant frequencies in wastewater determined using these variant assays agree with clinical cases, revealing rapid displacement of the Delta variant by the Omicron variant within three weeks. These variant trends, when mapped against vaccination rates, support clinical studies that found the rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant being associated with an infection advantage over Delta in vaccinated persons. These data reinforce the versatility, utility and accuracy of these open-sourced methods using allele-specific RT-qPCR for tracking the dynamics of variant displacement in communities through wastewater for informed public health responses.

Factors Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough Incidence among Health Care Workers Vaccinated with Inactivated SARS-CoV2 Vaccine (CoronaVac)

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers (HCWs) run a high risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The HCWs are prone to the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the hospital despite being fully vaccinated. The present study aimed to address the factors associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine breakthrough among HCWs.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Participants were 184 HCWs receiving two doses of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac, Sinovac Life Science). All participants were followed for six months. Confirmed COVID-19 was defined as positive SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Before undergoing RT-PCR, questionnaires were used to obtain information on demographic characteristics, profession, contact with COVID-19 cases, personal protective equipment (PPE), health protocols adherence, exercise, and nutritional habits.

RESULTS

A number of 57 (31%) participants were COVID-19 positive. Close contact with COVID-19 cases (adjusted RR 6.82, 95% CI: 1.97, 47.98, P = 0.044), being a resident doctor (adjusted RR 4.72, 95% CI: 1.11, 20.11, P = 0.036), improper mask-wearing (adjusted RR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.15, 4.85, P = 0.019), and lower frequency of eating fruit and vegetables (adjusted RR 2.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 5.57, P = 0.006) increased the risk of vaccine breakthrough. Compared to single surgical masks, KN95 and N95 significantly reduced the risk of COVID-19 (adjusted RR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.97, P = 0.045 and adjusted RR 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.87, P = 0.029), respectively.

CONCLUSION

As evidenced by the obtained results, being a resident doctor, close contact with confirmed COVID-19 cases, health protocol incompliance, as well as the lower frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption were associated with the risk of vaccine breakthrough among HCWs. Appropriate strategies are needed to prevent the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs.

Describing the population experiencing COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough following second vaccination in England: a cohort study from OpenSAFELY

BACKGROUND

While the vaccines against COVID-19 are highly effective, COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough is possible despite being fully vaccinated. With SARS-CoV-2 variants still circulating, describing the characteristics of individuals who have experienced COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs could be hugely important in helping to determine who may be at greatest risk.

METHODS

With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using routine clinical data from the OpenSAFELY-TPP database of fully vaccinated individuals, linked to secondary care and death registry data and described the characteristics of those experiencing COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs.

RESULTS

As of 1st November 2021, a total of 15,501,550 individuals were identified as being fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with a median follow-up time of 149 days (IQR: ​107-179). From within this population, a total of 579,780 (<4%) individuals reported a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. For every 1000 years of patient follow-up time, the corresponding incidence rate (IR) was 98.06 (95% CI 97.93-98.19). There were 28,580 COVID-19-related hospital admissions, 1980 COVID-19-related critical care admissions and 6435 COVID-19-related deaths; corresponding IRs 4.77 (95% CI 4.74-4.80), 0.33 (95% CI 0.32-0.34) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.09), respectively. The highest rates of breakthrough COVID-19 were seen in those in care homes and in patients with chronic kidney disease, dialysis, transplant, haematological malignancy or who were immunocompromised.

CONCLUSIONS

While the majority of COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases in England were mild, some differences in rates of breakthrough cases have been identified in several clinical groups. While it is important to note that these findings are simply descriptive and cannot be used to answer why certain groups have higher rates of COVID-19 breakthrough than others, the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 coupled with the number of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests still occurring is concerning and as numbers of fully vaccinated (and boosted) individuals increases and as follow-up time lengthens, so too will the number of COVID-19 breakthrough cases. Additional analyses, to assess vaccine waning and rates of breakthrough COVID-19 between different variants, aimed at identifying individuals at higher risk, are needed.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

RESULTS

Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain.

DISCUSSION

The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

RESULTS

Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain.

DISCUSSION

The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

RESULTS

Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain.

DISCUSSION

The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A case series of severe breakthrough infections observed in nine patients with COVID-19 in a southwestern German university hospital

Purpose

Vaccination is the key element for protection against COVID-19. Increased vaccination breakthroughs raise the question of whether additional prevention is necessary in case of individual risk factors for a severe course with hospitalization or death despite vaccination.

Methods

Since July 13, 2021, there is an extended reporting requirement by German law. We analyzed our hospitalized patients with vaccine breakthrough infection during the first 8 weeks.

Results

Nine of 67 patients (13.4%) hospitalized for COVID-19 (median age 75 years) were fully vaccinated. Five of these patients received intensive care; two patients died. All had received two doses of BNT162b2 vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech). There was a median of 99 days between complete immunization and symptom onset. All patients suffered from ≥ three comorbidities. Six patients (66.7%) showed a negative Anti-SARS-CoV-2-N titer at the time of vaccine breakthrough, five of these also had Anti-SARS-CoV-2-S titers < 100 U/ml. All determinable cases were Delta variant B.1.617.2.

Conclusion

Advanced age, underlying cardiorespiratory disease, and the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 were associated with hospitalization of our patients, suffering from vaccine breakthrough infection. Avoidance of face masks, lack of immunization of close contacts, and travel to high-risk areas have been observed as modifiable behavioural circumstances. Consistent personal protective measures, vaccination of close caregivers, and increased awareness might be effective measures in addition to COVID-19 booster vaccination for patients at a high risk to suffer a severe course of infection.

Increase in Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 associated parapneumonic pleural effusion/empyema after the introduction of PCV13 in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Pediatric pneumococcal pneumonia complicated by parapneumonic pleural effusion/empyema (PPE/PE) remains a major concern despite general immunization with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs).

METHODS

In a nationwide pediatric hospital surveillance study in Germany we identified 584 children <18 years of age with bacteriologically confirmed PPE/PE from October 2010 to June 2018. Streptococcus pneumoniae was identified by culture and/or PCR of blood samples and/or pleural fluid and serotyped.

RESULTS

S. pneumoniae was identified in 256 of 584 (43.8%) children by culture (n = 122) and/or PCR (n = 207). The following pneumococcal serotypes were detected in 114 children: serotype 3 (42.1%), 1 (25.4%), 7F (12.3%), 19A (7.9%), other PCV13 serotypes (4.4%) and non-PCV13 serotypes (7.9%). Between October 2010 and June 2014 serotype 1 (38.1%) and serotype 3 (25.4%) were most prevalent, whereas between July 2014 and June 2018 serotype 3 (62.7%) and non-PCV13 serotypes (15.7%) were dominant. Compared to children with other pneumococcal serotypes, children with serotype 3 associated PPE/PE were younger (median 3.2 years [IQR 2.1-4.3 years] vs. median 5.6 years [IQR 3.8-8.2 years]; p < 0.001) and more frequently admitted to intensive care (43 [89.6%] vs. 48 [73.8%]; p = 0.04). Seventy-six of 114 (66.7%) children with pneumococcal PPE/PE had been vaccinated with pneumococcal vaccines. Thirty-nine of 76 (51.3%) had received a vaccine covering the serotype detected. Thirty of these 39 breakthrough cases were age-appropriately vaccinated with PCV13 and considered vaccine failures, including 26 children with serotype 3, three children with serotype 19A and one child with serotype 1.

CONCLUSION

Following the introduction of PCV13 in general childhood vaccination we observed a strong emergence of serotype 3 associated PPE/PE in the German pediatric population, including a considerable number of younger children with serotype 3 vaccine breakthrough cases and failures. Future PCVs should not only cover newly emerging serotypes, but also include a more effective component against serotype 3.

Molecular and serological characterization of hepatitis B vaccine breakthrough infections in serial samples from two plasma donors

Background

Although vaccines for hepatitis B virus (HBV) are highly effective, HBV infections in vaccinees occur. Index samples of breakthrough infections are typically anti-HBc negative but HBV DNA positive with protective anti-HBs levels while HBsAg detection may be delayed or absent. HBsAg mutations have been associated with some vaccine breakthrough cases.

Methods

This research characterizes the serological and molecular profiles of vaccine breakthrough infections in serial samples from two commercially available plasma donor panels. Samples were tested with commercially available assays for HBV antigens and antibodies: HBsAg, HBeAg, anti-HBc, anti-HBc IgM, anti-HBe, and anti-HBs. Different immunoassay approaches for earlier detection of breakthrough infection were explored including hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg), a research assay for preS2 antigen, and a new prototype ARCHITECT HBsAg assay with improved sensitivity. The prototype HBsAg assay is fully automated and involves no sample pre-treatment. Molecular testing included HBV DNA quantitation and sequencing of preS1, preS2, surface, and basal core promoter/core promoter genes.

Results

Although the research preS2 antigen assay allowed earlier detection of the breakthrough infections than current HBsAg assays and HBcrAg, the new prototype ARCHITECT HBsAg assay provided the earliest serologic detection. The ability of the new prototype HBsAg assay to detect HBsAg in the presence of anti-HBs was investigated using known concentrations of native HBsAg mixed with anti-HBs from a vaccinee. The results demonstrated that the prototype ARCHITECT assay is more sensitive in detecting HBsAg in the presence of anti-HBs than current HBsAg assays. Sequencing revealed multiple substitutions in preS1, preS2, and S regions for one panel including a rare D144N substitution associated with vaccine breakthrough that emerged with increasing frequency as the breakthrough infection developed.

Conclusions

When compared with other immunoassay approaches, the new prototype ARCHITECT HBsAg assay allows earlier detection of vaccine breakthrough infections and more sensitive detection of HBsAg in the presence of anti-HBs. Molecular characterization of longitudinal samples demonstrated the progressive appearance of a rare HBsAg mutation associated with vaccine breakthrough.