Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations amongst 3,433,483 children and young people: meta-analysis of UK prospective cohorts

SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP) can lead to life-threatening COVID-19, transmission within households and schools, and the development of long COVID. Using linked health and administrative data, we investigated vaccine uptake among 3,433,483 CYP aged 5-17 years across all UK nations between 4th August 2021 and 31st May 2022. We constructed national cohorts and undertook multi-state modelling and meta-analysis to identify associations between demographic variables and vaccine uptake. We found that uptake of the first COVID-19 vaccine among CYP was low across all four nations compared to other age groups and diminished with subsequent doses. Age and vaccination status of adults living in the same household were identified as important risk factors associated with vaccine uptake in CYP. For example, 5-11 year-olds were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to 16-17 year-olds (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]: 0.10 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19)), and CYP in unvaccinated households were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to CYP in partially vaccinated households (aHR: 0.19, 95%CI 0.13-0.29).

Undervaccination and severe COVID-19 outcomes: meta-analysis of national cohort studies in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

BACKGROUND

Undervaccination (receiving fewer than the recommended number of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses) could be associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes-ie, COVID-19 hospitalisation or death-compared with full vaccination (receiving the recommended number of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses). We sought to determine the factors associated with undervaccination, and to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people who were undervaccinated in each UK nation and across the UK.

METHODS

We used anonymised, harmonised electronic health record data with whole population coverage to carry out cohort studies in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. Participants were required to be at least 5 years of age to be included in the cohorts. We estimated adjusted odds ratios for undervaccination as of June 1, 2022. We also estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for severe COVID-19 outcomes during the period June 1 to Sept 30, 2022, with undervaccination as a time-dependent exposure. We combined results from nation-specific analyses in a UK-wide fixed-effect meta-analysis. We estimated the reduction in severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with a counterfactual scenario in which everyone in the UK was fully vaccinated on June 1, 2022.

FINDINGS

The numbers of people undervaccinated on June 1, 2022 were 26 985 570 (45·8%) of 58 967 360 in England, 938 420 (49·8%) of 1 885 670 in Northern Ireland, 1 709 786 (34·2%) of 4 992 498 in Scotland, and 773 850 (32·8%) of 2 358 740 in Wales. People who were younger, from more deprived backgrounds, of non-White ethnicity, or had a lower number of comorbidities were less likely to be fully vaccinated. There was a total of 40 393 severe COVID-19 outcomes in the cohorts, with 14 156 of these in undervaccinated participants. We estimated the reduction in severe COVID-19 outcomes in the UK over 4 months of follow-up associated with a counterfactual scenario in which everyone was fully vaccinated on June 1, 2022 as 210 (95% CI 94-326) in the 5-15 years age group, 1544 (1399-1689) in those aged 16-74 years, and 5426 (5340-5512) in those aged 75 years or older. aHRs for severe COVID-19 outcomes in the meta-analysis for the age group of 75 years or older were 2·70 (2·61-2·78) for one dose fewer than recommended, 3·13 (2·93-3·34) for two fewer, 3·61 (3·13-4·17) for three fewer, and 3·08 (2·89-3·29) for four fewer.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of undervaccination against COVID-19 ranged from 32·8% to 49·8% across the four UK nations in summer, 2022. Undervaccination was associated with an elevated risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation National Core Studies: Data and Connectivity.

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccinations: a pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies involving 7.4 million adults in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Background

UK COVID-19 vaccination policy has evolved to offering COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at increased risk of severe Illness from COVID-19. Building on our analyses of vaccine effectiveness of first, second and initial booster doses, we aimed to identify individuals at increased risk of severe outcomes (i.e., COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death) post the autumn 2022 booster dose.

Methods

We undertook a national population-based cohort analysis across all four UK nations through linked primary care, vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality data. We included individuals who received autumn 2022 booster doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) or mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) during the period September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between demographic and clinical factors and severe COVID-19 outcomes after the autumn booster dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, urban/rural areas and comorbidities. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine results across the four UK nations.

Findings

Between September 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 7,451,890 individuals ≥18 years received an autumn booster dose. 3500 had severe COVID-19 outcomes (2.9 events per 1000 person-years). Being male (male vs female, aHR 1.41 (1.32-1.51)), older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; 10.43 (8.06-13.50)), underweight (BMI <18.5 vs BMI 25.0-29.9; 2.94 (2.51-3.44)), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9.45 (8.15-10.96)) had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death after the autumn booster dose. Those with a larger household size (≥11 people within household vs 2 people; 1.56 (1.23-1.98)) and from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived quintile; 1.35 (1.21-1.51)) had modestly higher risks. We also observed at least a two-fold increase in risk for those with various chronic neurological conditions, including Down's syndrome, immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, or cardiovascular disease.

Interpretation

Males, older individuals, underweight individuals, those with an increasing number of comorbidities, from a larger household or more deprived areas, and those with specific underlying health conditions remained at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the autumn 2022 vaccine booster dose. There is now a need to focus on these risk groups for investigating immunogenicity and efficacy of further booster doses or therapeutics.

Funding

National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Risk of COVID-19 death in adults who received booster COVID-19 vaccinations in England

The emergence of the COVID-19 vaccination has been critical in changing the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure protection remains high in vulnerable groups booster vaccinations in the UK have been targeted based on age and clinical vulnerabilities. We undertook a national retrospective cohort study using data from the 2021 Census linked to electronic health records. We fitted cause-specific Cox models to examine the association between health conditions and the risk of COVID-19 death and all-other-cause death for adults aged 50-100-years in England vaccinated with a booster in autumn 2022. Here we show, having learning disabilities or Down Syndrome (hazard ratio=5.07;95% confidence interval=3.69-6.98), pulmonary hypertension or fibrosis (2.88;2.43-3.40), motor neuron disease, multiple sclerosis, myasthenia or Huntington's disease (2.94, 1.82-4.74), cancer of blood and bone marrow (3.11;2.72-3.56), Parkinson's disease (2.74;2.34-3.20), lung or oral cancer (2.57;2.04 to 3.24), dementia (2.64;2.46 to 2.83) or liver cirrhosis (2.65;1.95 to 3.59) was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death. Individuals with cancer of the blood or bone marrow, chronic kidney disease, cystic fibrosis, pulmonary hypotension or fibrosis, or rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus had a significantly higher risk of COVID-19 death relative to other causes of death compared with individuals who did not have diagnoses. Policy makers should continue to priorities vulnerable groups for subsequent COVID-19 booster doses to minimise the risk of COVID-19 death.

Adverse events after first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccination in England: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of adverse events of interest (AEIs) after receiving their first and second doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinations, and to report the safety profile differences between the different COVID-19 vaccines.

DESIGN

We used a self-controlled case series design to estimate the relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners national sentinel network. We compared the AEIs that occurred seven days before and after receiving the COVID-19 vaccinations to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.

SETTING

England, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals experiencing AEIs after receiving first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

AEIs determined based on events reported in clinical trials and in primary care during post-license surveillance.

RESULTS

A total of 7,952,861 individuals were vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines within the study period. Among them, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs. Within the first seven days post-vaccination, 4.85% of all the AEIs were reported. There was a 3-7% decrease in the overall RI of AEIs in the seven days after receiving both doses of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (RI = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94) and 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98), respectively) and Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 (RI = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) for both doses), but a 20% increase after receiving the first dose of Moderna mRNA-1273 (RI = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44)).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in the incidence of medically attended AEIs. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, which could contribute to reporting vaccine safety.

Paediatric acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology: a national investigation and adenoviraemia case-control study in the UK

BACKGROUND

An increase in acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology in previously healthy children in the UK in March, 2022, triggered global case-finding. We aimed to describe UK epidemiological investigations of cases and their possible causes.

METHODS

We actively surveilled unexplained paediatric acute hepatitis (transaminase >500 international units per litre) in children younger than 16 years presenting since Jan 1, 2022, through notifications from paediatricians, microbiologists, and paediatric liver units; we collected demographic, clinical, and exposure information. Then, we did a case-control study to investigate the association between adenoviraemia and other viruses and case-status using multivariable Firth penalised logistic regression. Cases aged 1-10 years and tested for adenovirus were included and compared with controls (ie, children admitted to hospital with an acute non-hepatitis illness who had residual blood samples collected between Jan 1 and May 28, 2022, and without known laboratory-confirmed diagnosis or previous adenovirus testing). Controls were frequency-matched on sex, age band, sample months, and nation or supra-region with randomised selection. We explored temporal associations between frequency of circulating viruses identified through routine laboratory pathogen surveillance and occurrence of cases by linear regression. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity of cases was examined against residual serum from age-matched clinical comparison groups.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1 and July 4, 2022, 274 cases were identified (median age 3 years [IQR 2-5]). 131 (48%) participants were male, 142 (52%) were female, and one (<1%) participant had sex data unknown. Jaundice (195 [83%] of 235) and gastrointestinal symptoms (202 [91%] of 222) were common. 15 (5%) children required liver transplantation and none died. Adenovirus was detected in 172 (68%) of 252 participants tested, regardless of sample type; 137 (63%) of 218 samples were positive for adenovirus in the blood. For cases that were successfully genotyped, 58 (81%) of 72 had Ad41F, and 57 were identified as positive via blood samples (six of these were among participants who had undergone a transplant). In the case-control analysis, adenoviraemia was associated with hepatitis case-status (adjusted OR 37·4 [95% CI 15·5-90·3]). Increases in the detection of adenovirus from faecal samples, but not other infectious agents, in routine laboratory pathogen surveillance correlated with hepatitis cases 4 weeks later, which independently suggested an association (β 0·06 [95% CI 0·02-0·11]). No association was identified for SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity.

INTERPRETATION

We observed an association between adenovirus 41F viraemia and paediatric acute hepatitis. These results can inform diagnostic testing recommendations, clinical management, and exploratory in vitro or clinical studies of paediatric acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology. The role of potential co-factors, including other viruses and host susceptibility, requires further investigation.

FUNDING

None.

Using the COM-B framework to elucidate facilitators and barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake in pregnant women: a qualitative study

Since April 2021, COVID-19 vaccines have been recommended for pregnant women. Despite this, COVID-19 vaccine uptake in this group is low compared to the non-pregnant population of childbearing age. Our aim was to understand barriers and facilitators to COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant women in Northern Ireland using the COM-B framework, and so to make recommendations for public health interventions. The COM-B proposes that human behaviour is influenced by the extent to which a person has the capability, opportunity, and motivation to enact that behaviour. Understanding the factors underpinning behaviour through this lens helps discern what needs to change to change behaviour, therefore supporting the development of targeted interventions.This study consisted of eight semi-structured interviews with new/expectant mothers who did not receive a COVID-19 vaccine dose while pregnant since April 2021, and a focus group with five participants who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose while pregnant. Interview and focus group data were analysed using semi-deductive reflexive thematic analysis framed by a subtle realist approach. The COM-B was used to categorise codes and subthemes were developed within each COM-B construct.Within Psychological Capability, subthemes captured the need for consistent and reliable COVID-19 vaccine information and access to balanced and jargon-free, risk-benefit information that is tailored to the pregnant individual. The behaviour/opinions of family, friends, and local healthcare providers had a powerful influence on COVID-19 vaccine decisions (Social Opportunity). Integrating the COVID-19 vaccine as part of routine antenatal pathways was believed to support access and sense of familiarity (Physical Opportunity). Participants valued health autonomy, however experienced internal conflict driven by concerns about long-term side effects for their baby (Reflective Motivation). Feelings of fear, lack of empathy from healthcare providers, and anticipated guilt commonly underpinned indecision as to whether to get the vaccine (Automatic Motivation).Our study highlighted that the choice to accept a vaccine during pregnancy generates internal conflict and worry. Several participants cited their concern was primarily around the safety for their baby. Healthcare professionals (HCPs) play a significant part when it comes to decision making about COVID-19 vaccines among pregnant women. HCPs and pregnant women should be involved in the development of interventions to improve the delivery and communication of information.

Increased reports of severe myocarditis associated with enterovirus infection in neonates, United Kingdom, 27 June 2022 to 26 April 2023

Enteroviruses are a common cause of seasonal childhood infections. The vast majority of enterovirus infections are mild and self-limiting, although neonates can sometimes develop severe disease. Myocarditis is a rare complication of enterovirus infection. Between June 2022 and April 2023, twenty cases of severe neonatal enteroviral myocarditis caused by coxsackie B viruses were reported in the United Kingdom. Sixteen required critical care support and two died. Enterovirus PCR on whole blood was the most sensitive diagnostic test. We describe the initial public health investigation into this cluster and aim to raise awareness among paediatricians, laboratories and public health specialists.

Predictors and consequences of homelessness in whole-population observational studies that used administrative data: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Homelessness is a complex societal and public health challenge. Limited information exists about the population-level health and social care-related predictors and consequences of persons with lived experience of homelessness (PEH). Studies that focus on population subgroups or ad hoc questionnaires to gather data are of relatively limited generalisability to whole-population health surveillance and planning. The aim of this study was to find and synthesise information about the risk factors for, and consequences of, experiencing homelessness in whole-population studies that used routine administrative data.

METHOD

We performed a systematic search using EMBASE, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and PsycINFO research databases for English-language studies published from inception until February 2023 that reported analyses of administrative data about homelessness and health and social care-related predictors and consequences. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

Of the 1224 articles reviewed, 30 publications met the inclusion criteria. The included studies examined a wide range of topic areas, and the homelessness definitions used in each varied considerably. Studies were categorised into several topic areas: Mortality, morbidity and COVID-19; health care usage and hospital re-admission; care home admission and shelter stay; and other (e.g. employment, crime victimisation). The studies reported that that the physical and mental health of people who experience homelessness was worse than that of the general population. Homeless individuals were more likely to have higher risk of hospitalisation, more likely to use emergency departments, have higher mortality rates and were at greater risk of needing intensive care or of dying from COVID-19 compared with general population. Additionally, homeless individuals were more likely to be incarcerated or unemployed. The effects were strongest for those who experienced being homeless as a child compared to those who experienced being homeless later on in life.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first systematic review of whole-population observational studies that used administrative data to identify causes and consequences associated with individuals who are experiencing homelessness. While the scientific literature provides evidence on some of the possible risk factors associated with being homeless, research into this research topic has been limited and gaps still remain. There is a need for more standardised best practice approaches to understand better the causes and consequences associated with being homeless.

Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations: a pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes.

METHODS

We carried out a target trial design for first/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford-AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8 December 2020 to 30 June 2021. Exposure groups were matched by age, local authority area and propensity for vaccination. We pooled event counts across the four UK nations.

RESULTS

For Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1 and Dose 1 of BNT162b2, VE/rVE reached zero by approximately Days 60-80 and then went negative. By Day 70, VE/rVE was -25% (95% CI: -80 to 14) and 10% (95% CI: -32 to 39) for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, respectively, and 42% (95% CI: 9 to 64) and 53% (95% CI: 26 to 70) for Doses 1 and 2 of BNT162b2, respectively. rVE for Dose 2 of BNT162b2 remained above zero throughout and reached 46% (95% CI: 13 to 67) after 98 days of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

We found strong evidence of waning in VE/rVE for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, as well as Dose 1 of BNT162b2. This evidence may be used to inform policies on timings of additional doses of vaccine.

How public health authorities can use pathogen genomics in health protection practice: a consensus-building Delphi study conducted in the United Kingdom

Pathogen sequencing guided understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many health systems developed pathogen genomics services to monitor SARS-CoV-2. There are no agreed guidelines about how pathogen genomic information should be used in public health practice. We undertook a modified Delphi study in three rounds to develop expert consensus statements about how genomic information should be used. Our aim was to inform health protection policy, planning and practice. Participants were from organisations that produced or used pathogen genomics information in the United Kingdom. The first round posed questions derived from a rapid literature review. Responses informed statements for the subsequent rounds. Consensus was accepted when 70 % or more of the responses were strongly agree/agree, or 70 % were disagree/strongly disagree on the five-point Likert scale. Consensus was achieved in 26 (96 %) of 27 statements. We grouped the statements into six categories: monitoring the emergence of new variants; understanding the epidemiological context of genomic data; using genomic data in outbreak risk assessment and risk management; prioritising the use of limited sequencing capacity; sequencing service performance; and sequencing service capability. The expert consensus statements will help guide public health authorities and policymakers to integrate pathogen genomics in health protection practice.

Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

BACKGROUND

Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death) in individuals who had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had received the first booster vaccine.

METHODS

We constructed prospective cohorts across all four UK nations through linkages of primary care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality data on 30 million people. We included individuals who received primary vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our initial analyses. We then restricted analyses to those given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a severe COVID-19 outcome between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression models and calculated adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death. We adjusted for a range of potential covariates, including age, sex, comorbidities, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then did pooled analyses across UK nations using fixed-effect meta-analyses.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 individuals received a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45-3·75]), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07-9·97]), being male (male vs female; 1·23 [1·20-1·26]), and those with certain underlying health conditions-in particular, individuals receiving immunosuppressants (yes vs no; 5·80 [5·53-6·09])-and those with chronic kidney disease (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90-4·74]) remained at high risk despite the initial booster. Individuals with a history of COVID-19 infection were at reduced risk (infected ≥9 months before booster dose vs no previous infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29-0·58]).

INTERPRETATION

Older people, those with multimorbidity, and those with specific underlying health conditions remain at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the initial vaccine booster and should, therefore, be prioritised for additional boosters, including novel optimised versions, and the increasing array of COVID-19 therapeutics.

FUNDING

National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Hepatitis of unknown aetiology in children - epidemiological overview of cases reported in Europe, 1 January to 16 June 2022

Following the report of an excess in paediatric cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology by the United Kingdom (UK) on 5 April 2022, 427 cases were reported from 20 countries in the World Health Organization European Region to the European Surveillance System TESSy from 1 January 2022 to 16 June 2022. Here, we analysed demographic, epidemiological, clinical and microbiological data available in TESSy. Of the reported cases, 77.3% were 5 years or younger and 53.5% had a positive test for adenovirus, 10.4% had a positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 and 10.3% were coinfected with both pathogens. Cases with adenovirus infections were significantly more likely to be admitted to intensive care or high-dependency units (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.18–3.74) and transplanted (OR = 3.36; 95% CI: 1.19–9.55) than cases with a negative test result for adenovirus, but this was no longer observed when looking at this association separately between the UK and other countries. Aetiological studies are needed to ascertain if adenovirus plays a role in this possible emergence of hepatitis cases in children and, if confirmed, the mechanisms that could be involved.

Variations in COVID-19 vaccination uptake among people in receipt of psychotropic drugs: cross-sectional analysis of a national population-based prospective cohort

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disproportionately affected people with mental health conditions.

AIMS

We investigated the association between receiving psychotropic drugs, as an indicator of mental health conditions, and COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

METHOD

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective cohort of the Northern Ireland adult population using national linked primary care registration, vaccination, secondary care and pharmacy dispensing data. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses investigated the association between anxiolytic, antidepressant, antipsychotic, and hypnotic use and COVID-19 vaccination status, accounting for age, gender, deprivation and comorbidities. Receiving any COVID-19 vaccine was the primary outcome.

RESULTS

There were 1 433 814 individuals, of whom 1 166 917 received a COVID-19 vaccination. Psychotropic medications were dispensed to 267 049 people. In univariable analysis, people who received any psychotropic medication had greater odds of receiving COVID-19 vaccination: odds ratio (OR) = 1.42 (95% CI 1.41-1.44). However, after adjustment, psychotropic medication use was associated with reduced odds of vaccination (OR_adj = 0.90, 95% CI 0.89-0.91). People who received anxiolytics (OR_adj = 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.65), antipsychotics (OR_adj = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.78) and hypnotics (OR_adj = 0.90, 95% CI 0.87-0.93) had reduced odds of being vaccinated. Antidepressant use was not associated with vaccination (OR_adj = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We found significantly lower odds of vaccination in people who were receiving treatment with anxiolytic and antipsychotic medications. There is an urgent need for evidence-based, tailored vaccine support for people with mental health conditions.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake, effectiveness, and waning in 82,959 health care workers: A national prospective cohort study in Wales

BACKGROUND

While population estimates suggest high vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, the protection for health care workers, who are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, is less understood.

METHODS

We conducted a national cohort study of health care workers in Wales (UK) from 7 December 2020 to 30 September 2021. We examined uptake of any COVID-19 vaccine, and the effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) against polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We used linked and routinely collected national-scale data within the SAIL Databank. Data were available on 82,959 health care workers in Wales, with exposure extending to 26 weeks after second doses.

RESULTS

Overall vaccine uptake was high (90%), with most health care workers receiving theBNT162b2 vaccine (79%). Vaccine uptake differed by age, staff role, socioeconomic status; those aged 50-59 and 60+ years old were 1.6 times more likely to get vaccinated than those aged 16-29. Medical and dental staff, and Allied Health Practitioners were 1.5 and 1.1 times more likely to get vaccinated, compared to nursing and midwifery staff. The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine was found to be strong and consistent across the characteristics considered; 52% three to six weeks after first dose, 86% from two weeks after second dose, though this declined to 53% from 22 weeks after the second dose.

CONCLUSIONS

With some variation in rate of uptake, those who were vaccinated had a reduced risk of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those unvaccinated. Second dose has provided stronger protection for longer than first dose but our study is consistent with waning from seven weeks onwards.

The role of viral genomics in understanding COVID-19 outbreaks in long-term care facilities

We reviewed all genomic epidemiology studies on COVID-19 in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) that had been published to date. We found that staff and residents were usually infected with identical, or near identical, SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Outbreaks usually involved one predominant cluster, and the same lineages persisted in LTCFs despite infection control measures. Outbreaks were most commonly due to single or few introductions followed by a spread rather than a series of seeding events from the community into LTCFs. The sequencing of samples taken consecutively from the same individuals at the same facilities showed the persistence of the same genome sequence, indicating that the sequencing technique was robust over time. When combined with local epidemiology, genomics allowed probable transmission sources to be better characterised. The transmission between LTCFs was detected in multiple studies. The mortality rate among residents was high in all facilities, regardless of the lineage. Bioinformatics methods were inadequate in a third of the studies reviewed, and reproducing the analyses was difficult because sequencing data were not available in many facilities.

Investigating the association between COVID-19 vaccination and care home outbreak frequency and duration

OBJECTIVES

At the end of 2020, many countries commenced a vaccination programme against SARS-CoV-2. Public health authorities aim to prevent and interrupt outbreaks of infectious disease in social care settings. We aimed to investigate the association between the introduction of the vaccination programme and the frequency and duration of COVID-19 outbreaks in Northern Ireland (NI).

STUDY DESIGN

We undertook an ecological study using routinely available national data.

METHODS

We used Poisson regression to measure the relationship between the number of RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes, and as a measure of community COVID-19 prevalence, the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey estimated the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in NI. We estimated the change in this relationship and estimated the expected number of care home outbreaks in the absence of the vaccination programme. A Cox proportional hazards model estimated the hazard ratio of a confirmed COVID-19 care home outbreak closure.

RESULTS

Care home outbreaks reduced by two-thirds compared to expected following the introduction of the vaccination programme, from a projected 1625 COVID-19 outbreaks (95% prediction interval 1553-1694) between 7 December 2020 and 28 October 2021 to an observed 501. We estimated an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.53 of the outbreak closure assuming a 21-day lag for immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings describe the association of the vaccination with a reduction in outbreak frequency and duration across NI care homes. This indicates probable reduced harm and disruption from COVID-19 in social care settings following vaccination. Future research using individual level data from care home residents will be needed to investigate the effectiveness of the vaccines and the duration of their effects.

Determinants of health behaviours intended to prevent spread of respiratory pathogens that have pandemic potential: A rapid review

Effective public health messages to encourage behaviours to reduce the spread of COVID-19 should be informed by existing research that identifies the factors that are associated with these preventive behaviours. This rapid review summarises the existing research on the determinants of behaviours that aim to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The review focuses on the body of research (excluding research conducted with health care workers) that was produced in the context of viruses other than SARS CoV-2 that cause severe respiratory illness and are transmitted in a similar way. A total of 58 published peer-reviewed studies included in the review were identified through searches of Medline, Embase, PsychInfo and CINAHL. Most were conducted in the context of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009. Most studies examined the determinants of wearing a face covering, handwashing and social or physical distancing. The findings suggest that public health messages to encourage preventive behaviours should emphasise the potential seriousness of COVID-19 to elicit appropriate concern, strengthen perceptions of risk or threat from COVID-19, enhance self-efficacy about preventive behaviours, and improve knowledge about SARS-CoV-2, how it is transmitted, and how preventive behaviours can reduce the risk of transmission.

Association between community-based self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and social deprivation explored using symptom tracker apps: a repeated cross-sectional study in Northern Ireland

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to investigate the spatial and temporal relationships between the prevalence of COVID-19 symptoms in the community-level and area-level social deprivation.

DESIGN

Spatial mapping, generalised linear models, using time as a factor and spatial-lag models were used to explore the relationship between self-reported COVID-19 symptom prevalence as recorded through two smartphone symptom tracker apps and a range of socioeconomic factors using a repeated cross-sectional study design.

SETTING

In the community in Northern Ireland, UK. The analysis period included the earliest stages of non-pharmaceutical interventions and societal restrictions or 'lockdown' in 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Users of two smartphone symptom tracker apps recording self-reported health information who recorded their location as Northern Ireland, UK.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Population standardised self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and correlation between population standardised self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and area-level characteristics from measures of multiple deprivation including employment levels and population housing density, derived as the mean number of residents per household for each census super output area.

RESULTS

Higher self-reported prevalence of COVID-19 symptoms was associated with the most deprived areas (p<0.001) and with those areas with the lowest employment levels (p<0.001). Higher rates of self-reported COVID-19 symptoms within the age groups, 18-24 and 25-34 years were found within the most deprived areas during the earliest stages of non-pharmaceutical interventions and societal restrictions ('lockdown').

CONCLUSIONS

Through spatial regression of self-reporting COVID-19 smartphone data in the community, this research shows how a lens of social deprivation can deepen our understanding of COVID-19 transmission and prevention. Our findings indicate that social inequality, as measured by area-level deprivation, is associated with disparities in potential COVID-19 infection, with higher prevalence of self-reported COVID-19 symptoms in urban areas associated with area-level social deprivation, housing density and age.

Role of systems science in preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases: protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

In recent history, many new infectious diseases have affected humans for the first time or have appeared in previously unaffected areas of the world; these diseases are known as emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Examples of EIDs include COVID-19, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Ebola virus disease. EIDs are known for their complexity. Multiple factors play a role in their spread, including increases in human population, conflicts, urbanisation, air travel, global trade and inequalities in wealth distribution and access to healthcare. In order to gain a better understanding of such complexity, we aim to explore the role of systems science, which allows us to view EIDs in the context of complex adaptive systems rather than simple causes and effects. The objectives of this scoping review are to explore and map the theoretical concepts and key characteristics of studies that use systems methods in controlling EIDs, to identify the gaps in knowledge and disseminate the results.

METHODS

We will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute guidance for this scoping review, comprising the following stages: formulating the research question and subquestions, scanning the literature for available data, selecting relevant publications, charting the data by two independent reviewers, aggregating the findings, reporting, summarising and disseminating the results. We will review peer-reviewed articles, preprints and grey literature available in all languages.

DISCUSSION

We intend that this scoping review will contribute to a better understanding of the use of systems methods to inform policymakers about how to prevent and control EIDs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics approval is not required for a scoping review because it is based on reviewing and collecting data from publicly available sources. To disseminate the findings, results will be shared through academic publications, seminars and conferences.

Development of a Core Outcome Set for clinical trials aimed at improving antimicrobial stewardship in care homes

Introduction

Diverse outcomes reported in clinical trials to improve antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) in care homes has hindered evidence synthesis [1]. We previously reported that a number of outcomes for care home AMS which may be important to healthcare professionals and relatives of care home residents had not been measured in previous trials [2]. It is essential to generate a set of important outcomes (a core outcome set – COS) for future studies of AMS interventions in care homes.

Aim

To develop a COS for use in clinical trials aimed at improving AMS in care homes.

Methods

A refined inventory of outcomes for AMS interventions in care homes, compiled from a previous study [2], was presented in a three-round international Delphi consensus survey, followed by an online consensus exercise. Stakeholders engaged in AMS in care homes (e.g. healthcare professionals, representatives of care home residents) were invited to participate, having been identified through the research team’s contacts and knowledge of relevant organisations. A 9-point Likert scale was used during the consensus procedures and an outcome was included in the COS if 80% or more of participants scored between 7 and 9, and 15% or less scored between 1 and 3. Less stringent criteria for inclusion were also applied if the final COS comprised fewer than three outcomes. Subsequently, a suitable outcome measurement instrument (OMI) was selected for each outcome in the COS using the following steps: finding existing OMIs in the literature and consulting with experts, assessing the quality of OMIs, and selecting one OMI for each core outcome via a two-round international Delphi consensus exercise. Consent was obtained from all participants taking part in all consensus procedures.

Results

The initial inventory of 14 outcomes was presented to 82 international Delphi panellists from 17 countries in the first round who also suggested three additional outcomes. These 17 outcomes were rated again in two further rounds, with consensus achieved for ten outcomes. A subsequent online consensus exercise with twelve participants from Northern Ireland, including the research team, reached consensus to include five outcomes in the COS (Table 1). Regarding selection of OMIs for the COS, 17 OMIs were identified through literature searches and experts’ suggestions. Based on quality assessment, three OMIs - ‘Number of antimicrobial courses started per 1000 resident-days’, ‘Rate of antimicrobial days of therapy per 1000 resident-days’, and ‘Van Buul algorithms to evaluate appropriateness of initiating or withholding antibiotics’ - were selected for a two-round Delphi exercise with 59 participants from 16 countries. Consensus was reached to select two OMIs for the COS, as presented in Table 1.

Conclusion

This is the first study to develop a COS for use in clinical trials aimed at improving AMS in care homes. Although we recruited few representatives from advocacy groups for older people, care home staff and managers, there was common agreement for inclusion of a number of outcomes. This COS represents the minimum that should be used in research and trialists may consider exploring other outcomes as reported in previous studies.

References

1. Nguyen HQ, Tunney MM, Hughes CM. Interventions to Improve Antimicrobial Stewardship for Older People in Care Homes: A Systematic Review. Drugs and Aging. 2019;36(4):355–69.

2. Nguyen HQ, Bradley DT, Tunney MM, Hughes CM. Antimicrobial Stewardship in Care Homes: Outcomes of Importance to Stakeholders. J Hosp Infect. 2020 Jan 27;104(4):582–91.

Development of a core outcome set for clinical trials aimed at improving antimicrobial stewardship in care homes

Background

Diverse outcomes reported in clinical trials of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) interventions in care homes have hindered evidence synthesis. Our main objective was to develop a core outcome set (COS) for use in trials aimed at improving AMS in care homes.

Methods

A refined inventory of outcomes for AMS interventions in care homes, compiled from a previous study, was rated in a three-round international Delphi survey with 82 participants, using a nine-point Likert scale (from 1, unimportant, to 9, critical). This was followed by an online consensus exercise with 12 participants from Northern Ireland to finalise the COS content. Subsequently, a suitable outcome measurement instrument (OMI) was selected for each outcome in the COS by: identifying existing OMIs through a literature search and experts’ suggestions, assessing the quality of OMIs, and selecting one OMI for each core outcome via a two-round international Delphi survey with 59 participants.

Results

Of 14 outcomes initially presented, consensus was reached for inclusion of five outcomes in the COS after the three-round Delphi survey and the online consensus exercise, comprising the total number of antimicrobial courses prescribed, appropriateness of antimicrobial prescribing, days of therapy per 1000 resident-days, rate of antimicrobial resistance, and mortality related to infection. Of 17 potential OMIs identified, three were selected for the two-round Delphi exercise after the quality assessment. Consensus was reached for selection of two OMIs for the COS.

Conclusion

This COS is recommended to be used in clinical trials aimed at improving AMS in care homes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13756-021-00925-8.

Antimicrobial stewardship in care homes: outcomes of importance to stakeholders

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity of outcomes measured in trials to improve antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) in care homes has compromised quality of evidence. A core outcome set (COS) is needed to facilitate interpretation and synthesis of evidence in this area.

AIM

To determine outcomes deemed important by relevant stakeholders for interventions aimed at improving AMS in care homes, and to produce a refined list of outcomes that could be considered for use in future research.

METHODS

Semi-structured face-to-face or telephone interviews were conducted with key stakeholders. Outcomes reported in previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of AMS in care homes were included in a topic guide for interviews. Content analysis was undertaken to identify potential outcomes suggested by participants, followed by further review.

FINDINGS

Twenty-seven outcomes reported in RCTs were refined into a list of 12 overarching outcomes. Interviews with participants (six researchers, 31 healthcare professionals, and four family members of care home residents) identified 40 additional outcomes that were important to them. From these 52 outcomes, the total number of antimicrobials, the appropriateness of antimicrobial prescribing and adherence to guidelines were highlighted by most participants. After reviewing all 52 outcomes, a refined list of 14 outcomes potentially feasible for use in AMS trials in care homes was generated.

CONCLUSION

s: A number of potential outcomes for AMS in care homes, some of which had not been reported in previous studies, were identified. The refined list of 14 outcomes will be used in a future study to agree a COS for care home AMS trials.

Social norm feedback reduces primary care antibiotic prescribing in a regression discontinuity study

Background

Reducing antibiotic prescribing is a priority for health authorities responsible for preventing antimicrobial resistance. Northern Ireland has high rates of antimicrobial use. We implemented a social norm feedback intervention and evaluated its impact.

Objectives

To estimate the size and duration of the effect of a social norm feedback letter to GPs who worked in the 20% of practices with the highest antimicrobial prescribing.

Methods

The letter was sent in October 2017 to 221 GPs in 67 practices. To assess the effect of the intervention, we used a sharp non-parametric regression discontinuity (RD) design, with prescribing rates in the four calendar quarters following the intervention as the outcome variables.

Results

In the quarter following the intervention (October to December 2017) there was a change of −25.7 (95% CI = −42.5 to −8.8, P = 0.0028) antibiotic items per 1000 Specific Therapeutic group Age-sex Related Prescribing Units (STAR-PU). At 1 year, the coefficient was −58.7 (95% CI = −116.7 to −0.7, P = 0.047) antibiotic items per 1000 STAR-PU. The greatest change occurred soon after the intervention. Approximately 18900 fewer antibiotic items were prescribed than if the intervention had not been made (1% of Northern Ireland’s annual primary care antibiotic prescribing).

Conclusions

A social norm feedback intervention reduced antibiotic prescribing in the intervention practices. The diminishing effect over time suggests the need for more frequent feedback. The RD method allowed measurement of the effectiveness of an intervention that was delivered as part of normal business, without a randomized trial.

The effect of community-based interventions for cardiovascular disease secondary prevention on behavioural risk factors

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide, and its prevalence is increasing; with limited healthcare resources, secondary prevention programmes outside traditional hospital settings are needed, but their effectiveness is unclear. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of secondary prevention cardiovascular risk reduction programmes delivered in venues situated within the community on modification of behavioural risk factors. We searched five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane library) to identify trials of health behaviour interventions for adults with CVD in community-based venues. Primary outcomes were changes in physical activity, diet, smoking and/or alcohol consumption. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for eligibility and risk of bias; statistical analysis used Revman v5.3. Of 5905 articles identified, 41 articles (38 studies) (n = 7970) were included. Interventions were mainly multifactorial, educational, psychological and physical activity-based. Meta-analyses identified increased steps/week (Mean Difference (MD): 7480; 95% CI 1,940, 13,020) and minutes of physical activity/week (MD: 59.96; 95% CI 15.67, 104.25) associated with interventions. There was some evidence for beneficial effects on peak VO₂, blood pressure, total cholesterol and mental health. Variation in outcome measurements reported for other behavioural risk factors limited our ability to perform meta-analyses. Effective interventions were based in homes, general practices or outpatient settings, individually tailored and often multicomponent with a theoretical framework. Our review identified evidence that interventions for secondary CVD prevention, delivered in various community-based venues, have positive effects on physical activity; such opportunities should be promoted by health professionals.

The £ for lb. Challenge. Evaluation of a novel, workplace-based peer-led weight management programme, 2014-2016

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the £ for lb. Challenge, a novel country-wide, workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme with participants from a range of private and public organisations in Northern Ireland.

STUDY DESIGN

Pre- and post-intervention studies.

METHODS

The intervention was workplace-based, led by volunteer co-worker champions and based on the NHS Choices 12-week weight loss guide which incorporates dietary advice, physical activity, behaviour change methods and weekly weight monitoring. It operated from January to April in three consecutive years (2014-16). Overweight and obese adult workers were eligible. Training of peer champions involved two half-day workshops delivered by dieticians and physical activity professionals. Employers and/or participants pledged £1 to charity for every pound of weight lost. Weight was reported at enrolment and at either 12 weeks (2014) or at 12 weekly intervals (2015-16). Changes in weight and % weight, and body mass index were determined for all the participants and for gender and deprivation subgroups.

RESULTS

There were 734, 1559 and 1513 eligible participants, and 21, 31 and 35 participating companies in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively. Engagement rates were 94% and 96% and completion rates were 70% and 71% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Mean weight loss was 1.9 kg (2.2%; 2014), 2.5 kg (2.8%; 2015) and 2.4 kg (2.7%; 2016). The proportions losing ≥5% initial bodyweight were 21% (2014), 24% (2015) and 26% (2016). Male participants were more than twice as likely as women to complete the programme (odds ratio: 2.5 [2015]; 2.2 [2016]) and to lose ≥5% bodyweight (odds ratio: 2.5 [2015]; 3.7 [2016]).

CONCLUSIONS

The £ for lb. Challenge was an effective, low-cost health improvement intervention with meaningful weight loss for many participants, particularly male workers. With high levels of engagement and ownership, and successful collaboration between public health, voluntary bodies, private companies and public organisations, it is a novel workplace-based model with potential to expand.

Sequence and Expression of Complement Factor H Gene Cluster Variants and Their Roles in Age-Related Macular Degeneration Risk

Purpose

To investigate how potentially functional genetic variants are coinherited on each of four common complement factor H (CFH) and CFH-related gene haplotypes and to measure expression of these genes in eye and liver tissues.

Methods

We sequenced the CFH region in four individuals (one homozygote for each of four common CFH region haplotypes) to identify all genetic variants. We studied associations between the haplotypes and AMD phenotypes in 2157 cases and 1150 controls. We examined RNA-seq profiles in macular and peripheral retina and retinal pigment epithelium/choroid/sclera (RCS) from eight eye donors and three liver samples.

Results

The haplotypic coinheritance of potentially functional variants (including missense variants, novel splice sites, and the CFHR3–CFHR1 deletion) was described for the four common haplotypes. Expression of the short and long CFH transcripts differed markedly between the retina and liver. We found no expression of any of the five CFH-related genes in the retina or RCS, in contrast to the liver, which is the main source of the circulating proteins.

Conclusions

We identified all genetic variants on common CFH region haplotypes and described their coinheritance. Understanding their functional effects will be key to developing and stratifying AMD therapies. The small scale of our expression study prevented us from investigating the relationships between CFH region haplotypes and their expression, and it will take time and collaboration to develop epidemiologic-scale studies. However, the striking difference between systemic and ocular expression of complement regulators shown in this study suggests important implications for the development of intraocular and systemic treatments.

Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Rationale:

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA.

Objective:

To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies.

Methods and Results:

Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9.

Conclusions:

The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Genetic Associations: Mostly False? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND

Many associations between abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and genetic polymorphisms have been reported. It is unclear which are genuine and which may be caused by type 1 errors, biases, and flexible study design. The objectives of the study were to identify associations supported by current evidence and to investigate the effect of study design on reporting associations.

METHODS

Data sources were MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. Reports were dual-reviewed for relevance and inclusion against predefined criteria (studies of genetic polymorphisms and AAA risk). Study characteristics and data were extracted using an agreed tool and reports assessed for quality. Heterogeneity was assessed using I(2) and fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for variants that were reported at least twice, if any had reported an association. Strength of evidence was assessed using a standard guideline.

RESULTS

Searches identified 467 unique articles, of which 97 were included. Of 97 studies, 63 reported at least one association. Of 92 studies that conducted multiple tests, only 27% corrected their analyses. In total, 263 genes were investigated, and associations were reported in polymorphisms in 87 genes. Associations in CDKN2BAS, SORT1, LRP1, IL6R, MMP3, AGTR1, ACE, and APOA1 were supported by meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

Uncorrected multiple testing and flexible study design (particularly testing many inheritance models and subgroups, and failure to check for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium) contributed to apparently false associations being reported. Heterogeneity, possibly due to the case mix, geographical, temporal, and environmental variation between different studies, was evident. Polymorphisms in nine genes had strong or moderate support on the basis of the literature at this time. Suggestions are made for improving AAA genetics study design and conduct.

Reasons for non-participation in the Northern Ireland Bowel Cancer Screening Programme: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To identify the reasons why some people do not participate in bowel cancer screening so that steps can be taken to improve informed decision-making.

DESIGN

Qualitative study, using focus groups with thematic analysis of data to identify, analyse and report patterns. Transcripts were repeatedly read and inductively coded using a phenomenological perspective, and organised into key themes.

SETTING

Belfast and Armagh, two areas of Northern Ireland with relatively low uptake of bowel cancer screening.

PARTICIPANTS

Ten women and 18 men in three single-gender focus groups (two male and one female), each with 9-10 participants. Study participants were recruited by convenience sampling from the general public and were eligible for, but had not taken part in, the Northern Ireland Bowel Cancer Screening Programme.

RESULTS

Key themes identified were fear of cancer; the test procedure; social norms; past experience of cancer and screening; lack of knowledge or understanding about bowel cancer screening; and resulting behaviour towards the test. Fear about receiving bad news and reluctance to conduct the test themselves were reactions that participants seemed willing to overcome after taking part in open discussion about the test.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified barriers to participation in bowel cancer screening and used these insights to develop new materials to support delivery of the programme. Some of the issues raised have been identified in other UK settings, suggesting that knowledge about barriers, and strategies to improve uptake, may be generalisable.

Susceptibility to invasive meningococcal disease: polymorphism of complement system genes and Neisseria meningitidis factor H binding protein

BACKGROUND

Neisseria meningitidis can cause severe infection in humans. Polymorphism of Complement Factor H (CFH) is associated with altered risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). We aimed to find whether polymorphism of other complement genes altered risk and whether variation of N. meningitidis factor H binding protein (fHBP) affected the risk association.

METHODS

We undertook a case-control study with 309 European cases and 5,200 1958 Birth Cohort and National Blood Service cohort controls. We used additive model logistic regression, accepting P<0.05 as significant after correction for multiple testing. The effects of fHBP subfamily on the age at infection and severity of disease was tested using the independent samples median test and Student's T test. The effect of CFH polymorphism on the N. meningitidis fHBP subfamily was investigated by logistic regression and Chi squared test.

RESULTS

Rs12085435 A in C8B was associated with odds ratio (OR) of IMD (0.35 [95% CI 0.19-0.67]; P = 0.03 after correction). A CFH haplotype tagged by rs3753396 G was associated with IMD (OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.42-0.76], P = 1.6x10⁻⁴). There was no bacterial load (CtrA cycle threshold) difference associated with carriage of this haplotype. Host CFH haplotype and meningococcal fHBP subfamily were not associated. Individuals infected with meningococci expressing subfamily A fHBP were younger than those with subfamily B fHBP meningococci (median 1 vs 2 years; P = 0.025).

DISCUSSION

The protective CFH haplotype alters odds of IMD without affecting bacterial load for affected heterozygotes. CFH haplotype did not affect the likelihood of infecting meningococci having either fHBP subfamily. The association between C8B rs12085435 and IMD requires independent replication. The CFH association is of interest because it is independent of known functional polymorphisms in CFH. As fHBP-containing vaccines are now in use, relationships between CFH polymorphism and vaccine effectiveness and side-effects may become important.

The effectiveness of disaster risk communication: a systematic review of intervention studies

INTRODUCTION

A disaster is a serious disruption to the functioning of a community that exceeds its capacity to cope within its own resources. Risk communication in disasters aims to prevent and mitigate harm from disasters, prepare the population before a disaster, disseminate information during disasters and aid subsequent recovery. The aim of this systematic review is to identify, appraise and synthesise the findings of studies of the effects of risk communication interventions during four stages of the disaster cycle.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science and grey literature sources for randomised trials, cluster randomised trials, controlled and uncontrolled before and after studies, interrupted time series studies and qualitative studies of any method of disaster risk communication to at-risk populations. Outcome criteria were disaster-related knowledge and behaviour, and health outcomes.

RESULTS

Searches yielded 5,224 unique articles, of which 100 were judged to be potentially relevant. Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria, and two additional studies were identified from other searching. The studies evaluated interventions in all four stages of the disaster cycle, included a variety of man-made, natural and infectious disease disasters, and were conducted in many disparate settings. Only one randomised trial and one cluster randomised trial were identified, with less robust designs used in the other studies. Several studies reported improvements in disaster-related knowledge and behaviour.

DISCUSSION

We identified and appraised intervention studies of disaster risk communication and present an overview of the contemporary literature. Most studies used non-randomised designs that make interpretation challenging. We do not make specific recommendations for practice but highlight the need for high-quality randomised trials and appropriately-analysed cluster randomised trials in the field of disaster risk communication where these can be conducted within an appropriate research ethics framework.

A Variant in LDLR Is Associated With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Background—

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cardiovascular disease among older people and demonstrates significant heritability. In contrast to similar complex diseases, relatively few genetic associations with AAA have been confirmed. We reanalyzed our genome-wide study and carried through to replication suggestive discovery associations at a lower level of significance.

Methods and Results—

A genome-wide association study was conducted using 1830 cases from the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia with infrarenal aorta diameter ≥30 mm or ruptured AAA and 5435 unscreened controls from the 1958 Birth Cohort and National Blood Service cohort from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. Eight suggestive associations with P <1×10 −4 were carried through to in silico replication in 1292 AAA cases and 30 503 controls. One single-nucleotide polymorphism associated with P <0.05 after Bonferroni correction in the in silico study underwent further replication (706 AAA cases and 1063 controls from the United Kingdom, 507 AAA cases and 199 controls from Denmark, and 885 AAA cases and 1000 controls from New Zealand). Low-density lipoprotein receptor ( LDLR ) rs6511720 A was significantly associated overall and in 3 of 5 individual replication studies. The full study showed an association that reached genome-wide significance (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.83; P =2.08×10 −10 ).

Conclusions—

LDLR rs6511720 is associated with AAA. This finding is consistent with established effects of this variant on coronary artery disease. Shared causal pathways with other cardiovascular diseases may present novel opportunities for preventative and therapeutic strategies for AAA.

A genome-wide association study provides evidence for association of chromosome 8p23 (MYP10) and 10q21.1 (MYP15) with high myopia in the French Population

PURPOSE

Myopia is a complex trait affected by both genetic and environmental factors. High myopia is associated with increased risk of sight threatening eye disorders such as retinal detachment. The purpose of this genome-wide association study was to identify susceptibility genes contributing to high myopia in the French population.

METHODS

High myopic cases were genotyped using Affymetrix SNP 6.0 chips and population controls were selected from the GABRIEL French dataset, in which samples were genotyped by Illumina Human610 quad array. The association study was conducted using 152,234 single nucleotide polymorphisms that were present on both manufacturers' chips in 192 high myopic cases and 1064 controls to identify associated regions. Imputation was performed on peak regions.

RESULTS

Associations were found at known myopia locus MYP10 on chromosome 8p23 and MYP15 on chromosome 10q21.1. Rs189798 (8p23), and rs10825992 (10q21.1) showed the strongest associations in these regions (P = 6.32 × 10(-7) and P = 2.17 × 10(-5), respectively). The imputed results at 8p23 showed two peaks of interest. The first spanned 30 kb including rs189798 between MIR4660 and PPP1R3B with the most significant association at rs17155227 (P = 1.07 × 10(-10)). The second novel peak was 4 kb in length, encompassing MIR124-1 and the MSRA gene, with the strongest association at rs55864141 (P = 1.30 × 10(-7)). The peak of imputed data at 10q21.1 was 70 kb in length between ZWINT and MIR3924, with rs3107503 having the lowest P value (P = 1.54 × 10(-7)).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide evidence for the association of MYP10 at 8p23 and MYP15 at 10p21.1 with high myopia in the French population and refine these regions of association.

A novel GUCY2D mutation, V933A, causes central areolar choroidal dystrophy

PURPOSE

To identify the genetic cause of central areolar choroidal dystrophy (CACD) in a large Northern Irish family.

METHODS

We previously reported linkage of the locus for CACD in this family to an interval of approximately 5 cM on chromosome 17p13 flanked by polymorphic markers D17S1810 and CHLC GATA7B03. We undertook sequence capture, massively parallel sequencing and computational alignment, base-calling and annotation to identify a causative mutation. Conventional sequencing was used to confirm the

RESULTS

Results. Deep sequencing identified a single-base substitution in guanylate cyclase 2D, membrane (retina-specific) gene (GUCY2D). The novel mutation segregated with the disease phenotype and resulted in substitution of valine by alanine at position 933, within the catalytic domain of the protein. It altered a motif that is strongly conserved in a large number of distantly related proteins across several species and was predicted to have a damaging effect on protein activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Mutations in GUCY2D have previously been associated with dominant cone-rod dystrophies (CORD6) and recessive forms of Leber's congenital amaurosis. This is the first report of a GUCY2D mutation causing CACD and adds to our understanding of genotype-phenotype correlation in this heterogeneous group of choroidoretinal dystrophies.

Genetic susceptibility to invasive meningococcal disease: MBL2 structural polymorphisms revisited in a large case-control study and a systematic review

Invasive infection caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a worldwide public health problem. Previous reports have indicated that carriage of common 'defective' structural polymorphisms of the host mannose-binding lectin gene (MBL2) greatly increases an individual's risk of developing the disease. We report the largest case-control study so far to investigate the effect of these polymorphisms in meningococcal disease (296 PCR-positive cases and 5196 population controls, all of European ancestry) and demonstrate that no change in risk is associated with the polymorphisms overall or in any age-defined subgroup. This finding contrasts with two smaller studies that reported an increase in risk. A systematic review of all studies of MBL2 polymorphisms in people of European ancestry published since 1999, including 24,693 individuals, revealed a population frequency of the combined 'defective'MBL2 allele of 0.230 (95% confidence limits: 0.226-0.234). The past reported associations of increased risk of meningococcal disease were because of low 'defective' allele frequencies in their study control populations (0.13 and 0.04) that indicate systematic problems with the studies. The data from our study and all other available evidence indicate that MBL2 structural polymorphisms do not predispose children or adults to invasive meningococcal disease.

Complement factor B polymorphism 32W protects against age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE

The 32Q (rs641153; A) and 32W (rs12614; T) variants of complement factor B (CFB) cause less efficient complement activation in vitro than the common 32R variant. This is thought to be the reason that the 32Q variant is associated with decreased risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We investigated whether the 32W variant was also associated with decreased risk of AMD.

METHODS

We genotyped 367 cases with neovascular AMD and 251 disease-free controls. Association with the disease phenotype was assessed by logistic regression for polymorphisms of CFB alone and in combination with smoking status and genetic risk markers of complement factor H (CFH) and HtrA serine peptidase 1 (HTRA1). We performed meta-analysis of all previously published reports of 32W allele frequency in AMD cases and controls.

RESULTS

The CFB variant 32W was associated with protection against neovascular AMD, compared to the common 32R variant (odds ratio 0.64, p<0.05, in logistic regression with CFB variants; odds ratio 0.53, p<0.05, in logistic regression with CFB variants, CFH haplotypes, HTRA1 rs10490924 genotype, and smoking status). Meta-analysis (n=1,795) including this study and two others of neovascular AMD showed a combined odds ratio of 0.75 (p<0.05) for 32W, compared to 32R. Meta-analysis (n=2,600) of all reported studies of all types of AMD showed a combined odds ratio of 0.79 (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that the 32W variant of CFB is associated with protection against AMD, in keeping with evidence of its functional effect on the complement system. The protective effect is less strong than that associated with 32Q.

Coding polymorphisms in the genes of the alternative complement pathway and abdominal aortic aneurysm

Variants in the genes of the alternative complement pathway are associated with risk of numerous inflammatory diseases. Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with inflammation and is a common cause of illness and death among European populations. This study tested 49 single nucleotide polymorphisms, including common putatively functional polymorphisms, in the genes of the alternative complement cascade (CFH, CFB, CFD, CFI, properdin, CR1, CR1L, CR2, CD46, vitronectin, C3, C5, C6, C7, C8A, C8B, C8G and C9). The study group were 434 cases with infra-renal aortic diameter ≥30 mm and 378 disease-free controls from two UK centres, all with self-reported European ancestry. There was no evidence for significant association with presence or size of aneurysm following correction for multiple testing. This study suggests that variation in the genes of the alternative pathway is not an important cause of abdominal aortic aneurysm development.

Scar revision via resurfacing

Numerous techniques exist to treat noticeable facial scars. Techniques range from surgical excision to resurfacing. In this review of dermabrasion and laser resurfacing, we address the clinical considerations, techniques, adjuncts, and peri-operative management of scar resurfacing. Dermabrasion offers the advantage of being a tried-and-true technique familiar to surgeons. Recent advances in laser technology have resulted in the increased use of pulsed-dye lasers (PDLs), erbium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet (YAG) lasers, and CO(2) lasers. PDLs are effective for hypertrophic scars and show lower rates of recurrence compared with erbium:YAG and CO2 lasers. In contrast, erbium:YAG and CO(2) lasers are well suited to treating atrophic and acne scars. Chemical peels play a minor role in scar resurfacing and function primarily as an adjunct. Scar resurfacing is an integral part of scar camouflage and is often used in conjunction with excision and irregularization techniques.

Correlates of arterial oxygenation during exercise in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

In the present study, we have undertaken a detailed analysis of the respiratory physiologic correlates of SaO2 during mild constant-load exercise in 38 patients with severe but stable COPD. Several respiratory physiologic variables that would be expected to influence exercise SaO2 were entered into a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis with mean exercise SaO2 as the dependent variable. Two variables (Dco and resting SaO2) were found to correlate strongly with mean exercise SaO2 (multiple r = 0.80; p less than 0.00001) and accounted for 65 percent of the variability among patients. The PaCO2 influenced resting SaO2 but had no independent influence on exercise SaO2. Subsequently, the model of mean exercise SaO2 derived in the present analysis was found to accurately predict mean exercise SaO2 in a group of 19 similar patients (r = 0.85; p less than 0.0001). While these findings do not establish a cause-and-effect relationship, they may provide clinicians with further insight as to which patients are likely to desaturate during exercise.