Association of hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer: a cohort study within UKCTOCS

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

POPULATION

A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014.

METHODS

Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review.

RESULTS

Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765).

CONCLUSIONS

This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

Prognostic gene expression signature for high-grade serous ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Median overall survival (OS) for women with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is ∼4 years, yet survival varies widely between patients. There are no well-established, gene expression signatures associated with prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a robust prognostic signature for OS in patients with HGSOC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Expression of 513 genes, selected from a meta-analysis of 1455 tumours and other candidates, was measured using NanoString technology from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue collected from 3769 women with HGSOC from multiple studies. Elastic net regularization for survival analysis was applied to develop a prognostic model for 5-year OS, trained on 2702 tumours from 15 studies and evaluated on an independent set of 1067 tumours from six studies.

RESULTS

Expression levels of 276 genes were associated with OS (false discovery rate < 0.05) in covariate-adjusted single-gene analyses. The top five genes were TAP1, ZFHX4, CXCL9, FBN1 and PTGER3 (P < 0.001). The best performing prognostic signature included 101 genes enriched in pathways with treatment implications. Each gain of one standard deviation in the gene expression score conferred a greater than twofold increase in risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.71; P < 0.001]. Median survival [HR (95% CI)] by gene expression score quintile was 9.5 (8.3 to -), 5.4 (4.6-7.0), 3.8 (3.3-4.6), 3.2 (2.9-3.7) and 2.3 (2.1-2.6) years.

CONCLUSION

The OTTA-SPOT (Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium - Stratified Prognosis of Ovarian Tumours) gene expression signature may improve risk stratification in clinical trials by identifying patients who are least likely to achieve 5-year survival. The identified novel genes associated with the outcome may also yield opportunities for the development of targeted therapeutic approaches.

Association between skirt size and chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women: a prospective cohort study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background

We investigated the association between self-reported skirt size (SS) and change in SS, and incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial.

Methods

Women recruited to UKCTOCS in England without documented CLD self-reported their current UK SS during trial participation and were asked to recall their SS when aged in 20s (via completion of a questionnaire 3–5 years after recruitment). Participants were followed up via electronic health record linkage and hazard ratios (HR) calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE).

Results

Three hundred twenty-two (0.3%) of 94,124 women experienced a first LRE. Compared to SS ≤ 16, rates of LRE were higher in the SS ≥ 18 groups (both when aged in 20s and at questionnaire completion). Event rates were higher if there was no change in SS or an increase in SS, compared to a decrease in SS.

In the models adjusted for potential confounders, HRs for LRE were higher in the groups of women reporting SS ≥ 18 both when aged in 20s (HR = 1.39 (95% CI; 0.87–2.23)) and at questionnaire completion (HR = 1.37 (95% CI; 1.07–1.75)). Compared to a decrease in SS, HRs were higher in the no change (HR = 1.78 (95% CI; 0.95–3.34)) and increase (HR = 1.80 (95% CI; 1.01–3.21)) groups.

Conclusion

CLD is associated with high SS and an increase in SS over time. These data suggest SS can be used in simple public health messages about communicating the risk of liver disease.

Trial Registration

UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5308-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The role of transvaginal ultrasound in screening for ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is a low-prevalence postmenopausal cancer with a high mortality rate and is the fifth most lethal cancer in women. The most common serous subtype with TP53 mutations spreads rapidly throughout the peritoneal cavity (stage III/IV) when 5-year survival is 10%. If diagnosed while confined to the ovary (stage I), the survival rate exceeds 90%. This is the rationale for screening. Annual transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) scans used as a primary screening modality or as a second-line test following primary screening with serum CA125 (multimodal) have been investigated in several trials. Only two large randomized controlled trials have provided mortality data. The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial studied over 78 000 women (randomized to screening with either TVU or CA125, or control) over 6 years with 14 years follow-up and found no mortality benefit from screening and increased morbidity in the screened arm. The UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening studied over 202 000 women randomized to TVU, multimodal or control in a 1 : 1 : 2 ratio over 7-11 years with 11 years follow-up. CA125 was interpreted by the Risk of Ovarian Cancer algorithm which identifies a rise in the level rather than a fixed cut-off. There was a late reduction in mortality after 7 years in the screened arm (23% in the multimodal arm and 21% in the TVU arm), but the overall reduction was not significant. Further follow-up may reveal whether TVU has a primary or secondary role in ovarian cancer screening.

Prevalence and predictors of complementary and alternative medicine/non-pharmacological interventions use for menopausal symptoms within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

The negative publicity about menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) has led to increased use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) for menopausal symptom relief. We report on the prevalence and predictors of CAM/NPI among UK postmenopausal women.

METHOD

Postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years were invited to participate in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). A total of 202 638 women were recruited and completed a baseline questionnaire. Of these, 136 020 were sent a postal follow-up-questionnaire between September 2006 and May 2009 which included ever-use of CAM/NPI for menopausal symptom relief. Both questionnaires included MHT use.

RESULTS

A total of 88 430 (65.0%) women returned a completed follow-up-questionnaire; 22 206 (25.1%) reported ever-use of one or more CAM/NPI. Highest use was reported for herbal therapies (43.8%; 9725/22 206), vitamins (42.6%; 9458/22 206), lifestyle approaches (32.1%; 7137/22 206) and phytoestrogens (21.6%; 4802/22 206). Older women reported less ever-use of herbal therapies, vitamins and phytoestrogens. Lifestyle approaches, aromatherapy/reflexology/acupuncture and homeopathy were similar across age groups. Higher education, Black ethnicity, MHT or previous oral contraceptive pill use were associated with higher CAM/NPI use. Women assessed as being less hopeful about their future were less likely to use CAM/NPI.

CONCLUSION

One in four postmenopausal women reported ever-use of CAM therapies/NPI for menopausal symptom relief, with lower use reported by older women. Higher levels of education and previous MHT use were positive predictors of CAM/NPI use. UKCTOCS Trial registration: ISRCTN22488978.

Evaluation of serum CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of colorectal cancer using longitudinal preclinical samples

Background:

Blood-borne biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) could markedly increase screening uptake. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of CRC in an asymptomatic cohort.

Methods:

This nested case–control study within UKCTOCS used 381 serial serum samples from 40 women subsequently diagnosed with CRC, 20 women subsequently diagnosed with benign disease and 40 matched non-cancer controls with three to four samples per subject taken annually up to 4 years before diagnosis. CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 were measured using validated assays and performance of markers evaluated for different pre-diagnosis time groups.

Results:

CEA levels increased towards diagnosis in a third of all cases (half of late-stage cases), whereas longitudinal profiles were static in both benign and non-cancer controls. At a threshold of >5 ng ml⁻¹ the sensitivities for detecting CRC up to 1 and 4 years before clinical presentation were 25% and 13%, respectively, at 95% specificity. At a threshold of >2.5 ng ml⁻¹, sensitivities were 57.5% and 38.4%, respectively, with specificities of 81% and 83.5%. CYFRA21-1 and CA125 had no utility as screening markers and did not enhance CEA performance when used in combination. CEA gave average lead times of 17–24 months for test-positive cases.

Conclusions:

CEA is elevated in a significant proportion of individuals with preclinical CRC, but would not be useful alone as a screening tool. This work sets a baseline from which to develop panels of biomarkers which combine CEA for improved early detection of CRC.

Predictors of complications in gynaecological oncological surgery: a prospective multicentre study (UKGOSOC-UK gynaecological oncology surgical outcomes and complications)

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on surgical outcomes in gynaecological oncology. We report on predictors of complications in a multicentre prospective study.

METHODS

Data on surgical procedures and resulting complications were contemporaneously recorded on consented patients in 10 participating UK gynaecological cancer centres. Patients were sent follow-up letters to capture any further complications. Post-operative (Post-op) complications were graded (I-V) in increasing severity using the Clavien-Dindo system. Grade I complications were excluded from the analysis. Univariable and multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of complications using all surgery for intra-operative (Intra-op) and only those with both hospital and patient-reported data for Post-op complications.

RESULTS

Prospective data were available on 2948 major operations undertaken between April 2010 and February 2012. Median age was 62 years, with 35% obese and 20.4% ASA grade ⩾3. Consultant gynaecological oncologists performed 74.3% of operations. Intra-op complications were reported in 139 of 2948 and Grade II-V Post-op complications in 379 of 1462 surgeries. The predictors of risk were different for Intra-op and Post-op complications. For Intra-op complications, previous abdominal surgery, metabolic/endocrine disorders (excluding diabetes), surgical complexity and final diagnosis were significant in univariable and multivariable regression (P<0.05), with diabetes only in multivariable regression (P=0.006). For Post-op complications, age, comorbidity status, diabetes, surgical approach, duration of surgery, and final diagnosis were significant in both univariable and multivariable regression (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This multicentre prospective audit benchmarks the considerable morbidity associated with gynaecological oncology surgery. There are significant patient and surgical factors that influence this risk.

Evaluation in pre-diagnosis samples discounts ICAM-1 and TIMP-1 as biomarkers for earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer

Circulating intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1) have been widely proposed as potential diagnostic biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We report on serum protein levels prior to clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer. Serum ICAM-1 and TIMP-1 were measured by ELISA in two case–control sets: 1) samples from patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (n = 40), chronic pancreatitis (n = 20), benign jaundice due to gall stones (n = 20) and healthy subjects (n = 20); 2) a preclinical set from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening biobank of samples collected from 27 post-menopausal women 0–12 months prior to diagnosis of pancreatic cancer and controls matched for date of donation and centre. Levels of ICAM-1 and TIMP-1 were significantly elevated in set 1 in PDAC patients with jaundice compared to PDAC patients without jaundice and both proteins were elevated in patients with jaundice due to gall stones. Neither protein was elevated in samples taken 0–12 months prior to PDAC diagnosis compared to non-cancer control samples. In conclusion, evaluation in pre-diagnosis samples discounts ICAM-1 and TIMP-1 as biomarkers for earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Failure to account for obstructive jaundice may have contributed to the previous promise of these candidate biomarkers.

BIOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Pancreatic cancer is usually diagnosed when at an advanced stage which greatly limits therapeutic options. Biomarkers that could facilitate earlier diagnosis are urgently sought.

Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma: implications for clinical testing. An Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis consortium study

BACKGROUND

Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1 expression. We conducted a large study evaluating FOLR1 expression with survival in different histological types of OvCa.

METHODS

Tissue microarrays composed of tumour samples from 2801 patients in the Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium were assessed for FOLR1 expression by centralised immunohistochemistry. We estimated associations for overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survival using adjusted Cox regression models. High-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSC) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were evaluated independently for association between FOLR1 mRNA upregulation and survival.

RESULTS

FOLR1 expression ranged from 76% in HGSC to 11% in mucinous carcinomas in OTTA. For HGSC, the association between FOLR1 expression and OS changed significantly during the years following diagnosis in OTTA (Pinteraction=0.01, N=1422) and TCGA (Pinteraction=0.01, N=485). In OTTA, particularly for FIGO stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259). In TCGA, FOLR1 mRNA upregulation in HGSC was also associated with increased OS during the first 2 years following diagnosis irrespective of tumour stage (HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

FOLR1-positive HGSC tumours were associated with an increased OS in the first 2 years following diagnosis. Patients with FOLR1-negative, poor prognosis HGSC would be unlikely to benefit from anti-FOLR1 therapies. In contrast, a decreased PFS interval was observed for FOLR1-positive CCC. The clinical efficacy of FOLR1-targeted interventions should therefore be evaluated according to histology, stage and time following diagnosis.

Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma: implications for clinical testing. An Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis consortium study

BACKGROUND

Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1 expression. We conducted a large study evaluating FOLR1 expression with survival in different histological types of OvCa.

METHODS

Tissue microarrays composed of tumour samples from 2801 patients in the Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium were assessed for FOLR1 expression by centralised immunohistochemistry. We estimated associations for overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survival using adjusted Cox regression models. High-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSC) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were evaluated independently for association between FOLR1 mRNA upregulation and survival.

RESULTS

FOLR1 expression ranged from 76% in HGSC to 11% in mucinous carcinomas in OTTA. For HGSC, the association between FOLR1 expression and OS changed significantly during the years following diagnosis in OTTA (Pinteraction=0.01, N=1422) and TCGA (Pinteraction=0.01, N=485). In OTTA, particularly for FIGO stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259). In TCGA, FOLR1 mRNA upregulation in HGSC was also associated with increased OS during the first 2 years following diagnosis irrespective of tumour stage (HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

FOLR1-positive HGSC tumours were associated with an increased OS in the first 2 years following diagnosis. Patients with FOLR1-negative, poor prognosis HGSC would be unlikely to benefit from anti-FOLR1 therapies. In contrast, a decreased PFS interval was observed for FOLR1-positive CCC. The clinical efficacy of FOLR1-targeted interventions should therefore be evaluated according to histology, stage and time following diagnosis.

Factors affecting visualization of postmenopausal ovaries: descriptive study from the multicenter United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

OBJECTIVE

Transvaginal sonography (TVS) is core to any ovarian cancer screening strategy. General-population screening involves older postmenopausal women in whom ovarian visualization is difficult because of decreasing ovarian size and lack of follicular activity. We report on factors affecting the visualization of postmenopausal ovaries in the multicenter United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

METHODS

The UKCTOCS is a randomized controlled trial of 202 638 postmenopausal women with 50 639 women in the ultrasound scan arm. TVS is the primary screening modality in the ultrasound scan arm. Age, education, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), previous pelvic surgery, lifestyle and reproductive factors, and a personal/family history of cancer were assessed for their effects on ovarian visualization at the initial TVS.

RESULTS

Between 11 June 2001 and 18 August 2007, 43 867 women underwent TVS. The median age and BMI of the women were 60.6 (interquartile range (IQR), 9.9) years and 25.7 (IQR, 5.8), respectively. The right ovary was visualized in 29 297 (66.8%) and the left ovary was visualized in 28 726 (65.5%). Visualization of ovaries decreased with previous hysterectomy (odds ratio (OR) = 0.534; 95% CI, 0.504-0.567), previous tubal ligation (OR = 0.895; 95% CI, 0.852-0.940), increasing age (OR = 0.953; 95% CI, 0.950-0.956), unilateral oophorectomy (OR = 0.224; 95% CI, 0.186-0.269) and being overweight (OR = 0.918; 95% CI, 0.876-0.962) or obese (OR = 0.715; 95% CI, 0.677-0.755). Increased visualization was observed with a history of infertility (OR = 1.134; 95% CI, 1.005-1.279) and increasing age (in years) at menopause (OR = 1.005; 95% CI, 1.001-1.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors affect the visualization of postmenopausal ovaries. Their impact needs to be taken into consideration when developing quality assurance for ovarian ultrasound scanning or comparing study results as their prevalence may differ between populations.

Patient-reporting improves estimates of postoperative complication rates: a prospective cohort study in gynaecological oncology

Background:

Most studies use hospital data to calculate postoperative complication rates (PCRs). We report on improving PCR estimates through use of patient-reporting.

Methods:

A prospective cohort study of major surgery performed at 10 UK gynaecological cancer centres was undertaken. Hospitals entered the data contemporaneously into an online database. Patients were sent follow-up letters to capture postoperative complications. Grade II–V (Clavien–Dindo classification) patient-reported postoperative complications were verified from hospital records. Postoperative complication rate was defined as the proportion of surgeries with a Grade II–V postoperative complication.

Results:

Patient replies were received for 1462 (68%) of 2152 surgeries undertaken between April 2010 and February 2012. Overall, 452 Grade II–V (402 II, 50 III–V) complications were reported in 379 of the 1462 surgeries. This included 172 surgeries with 200 hospital-reported complications and 231 with 280 patient-reported complications. All (100% concordance) 36 Grade III–V and 158 of 280 (56.4% concordance) Grade II patient-reported complications were verified on hospital case-note review. The PCR using hospital-reported data was 11.8% (172 out of 1462; 95% CI 11–14), patient-reported was 15.8% (231 out of 1462; 95% CI 14–17.8), hospital and verified patient-reported was 19.4% (283 out of 1462; 95% CI 17.4–21.4) and all data were 25.9% (379 out of 1462; 95% CI 24–28). After excluding Grade II complications, the hospital and patient verified Grade III–V PCR was 3.3% (48 out of 1462; 95% CI 2.5–4.3).

Conclusion:

This is the first prospective study of postoperative complications we are aware of in gynaecological oncology to include the patient-reported data. Patient-reporting is invaluable for obtaining complete information on postoperative complications. Primary care case-note review is likely to improve verification rates of patient-reported Grade II complications.

Acceptance of transvaginal sonography by postmenopausal women participating in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVE

To assess pain and overall experience of transvaginal sonography (TVS) in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

METHODS

In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), 50 639 postmenopausal women were randomized to undergo annual TVS at 13 trial centers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Together with the appointment letter for their annual scan, a random sample of 150 women per center was sent a detailed 48-item postal questionnaire regarding the screening experience. It included a specific question about pain using a score of 0-5, where 5 was severe pain and 3 was discomfort. To assess factors that might affect a woman's reported pain experience, the pain score was regressed on age, hormone replacement therapy use, body mass index, a history of hysterectomy, prolonged scanning time, ovarian visualization, scan result, sonographer's visualization rates and opinion of the women regarding the sonographer who performed the scan.

RESULTS

Between 7 July and 9 September 2009, 1950 randomly chosen women (150 per regional center) were sent the questionnaire. Of the 800 (41.0%) who returned the questionnaire, 651 could be linked to their TVS appointment. One-hundred and fifty-two (23.3%) women reported pain/discomfort (score 3-5) during TVS and 473 (72.7%) reported no discomfort (score 0-2). Only 23 (3.5%) women reported experiencing moderate/severe pain. Increasing discomfort/pain was independently associated with a history of hysterectomy and participant's reporting of prolonged scan time. Women who experienced pain on TVS were less compliant (odds ratio = 0.87) with the following year's scan compared with those who did not experience pain.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of postmenopausal women found TVS acceptable. Pain influenced compliance and correlated with women's perception of increased scanning time and previous hysterectomy.

Early detection of cancer in the general population: a blinded case-control study of p53 autoantibodies in colorectal cancer

Background:

Recent reports from cancer screening trials in high-risk populations suggest that autoantibodies can be detected before clinical diagnosis. However, there is minimal data on the role of autoantibody signatures in cancer screening in the general population.

Methods:

Informative p53 peptides were identified in sera from patients with colorectal cancer using an autoantibody microarray with 15-mer overlapping peptides covering the complete p53 sequence. The selected peptides were evaluated in a blinded case–control study using stored serum from the multimodal arm of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening where women gave annual blood samples. Cases were postmenopausal women who developed colorectal cancer following recruitment, with 2 or more serum samples preceding diagnosis. Controls were age-matched women with no history of cancer.

Results:

The 50 640 women randomised to the multimodal group were followed up for a median of 6.8 (inter-quartile range 5.9–8.4) years. Colorectal cancer notification was received in 101 women with serial samples of whom 97 (297 samples) had given consent for secondary studies. They were matched 1 : 1 with 97 controls (296 serial samples). The four most informative peptides identified 25.8% of colorectal cancer patients with a specificity of 95%. The median lead time was 1.4 (range 0.12–3.8) years before clinical diagnosis.

Conclusion:

Our findings suggest that in the general population, autoantibody signatures are detectable during preclinical disease and may be of value in cancer screening. In colorectal cancer screening in particular, where the current need is to improve compliance, it suggests that p53 autoantibodies may contribute towards risk stratification.

Risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in asymptomatic women with ultrasound-detected ovarian masses: a prospective cohort study within the UK collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening (UKCTOCS)

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of primary epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and slow growing borderline or Type I and aggressive Type II EOC in postmenopausal women with adnexal abnormalities on ultrasound.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study in the ultrasound group of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening of postmenopausal women with ultrasound-detected abnormal adnexal (unilocular, multilocular, unilocular solid and multilocular solid, solid) morphology on their first scan. Women were followed up through the national cancer registries and by postal questionnaires. Absolute risks of EOC and borderline, Type I and Type II EOC within 3 years of initial scan were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 48 053 women who underwent ultrasound examination and had complete scan data, 4367 (9.1% (95% CI, 8.8-9.3%)) had abnormal adnexal morphology. Median follow-up was 7.09 (25(th) -75(th) centiles, 6.03-7.92) years. Forty-seven (32 borderline or Type I, 15 Type II) were diagnosed with EOC. The overall absolute risk of EOC associated with abnormal adnexal morphology was 1.08% (95% CI, 0.79-1.43%); for borderline and Type I it was 0.73% (95% CI, 0.5-1.03%); and for Type II it was 0.34% (95% CI, 0.33-0.79%). In the subgroup (n = 741) with solid elements (unilocular solid, multilocular solid and solid) overall absolute risk was 4.45% (95% CI, 3.08-6.20%), for borderline and Type I it was 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.6%) and for Type II it was 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-2.4%). 11 982 women had both ovaries visualized and normal annual scans throughout the 3-year follow-up period. In this group, no borderline or Type I and eight Type II cancers were diagnosed.

CONCLUSION

Asymptomatic postmenopausal women with ultrasound-detected adnexal abnormalities with solid elements have a 1 in 22 risk for EOC. Despite the higher prevalence of Type II EOC, the risk of borderline or Type I cancer in women with ultrasound abnormalities seems to be higher than does the risk of Type II cancer. This has important immediate implications for patients with incidental adnexal findings as well as for any future ultrasound-based screening.

Histological confirmation of breast cancer registration and self-reporting in England and Wales: a cohort study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

In research studies, accurate information of cancer diagnosis is crucial. In women with breast cancer (BC), we compare cancer registration (CR) in England/Wales and self-reporting with independent confirmation.

METHODS

In the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, notification of BC diagnosed between randomisation and 31 December 2009 was obtained through (1) CR (17 October 2011) and (2) self-reporting using postal-questionnaire. Breast cancer was confirmed using a detailed questionnaire (BC questionnaire BCQ) completed by the treating clinician (gold standard). Apparent sensitivity and positive-predictive value of CR/self-reporting vs BCQ were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 1065 women with possible BC notification, diagnosis was confirmed in 932 (87.5%). A total of 3.1% (28 out of 918) of BC CR and 12.4% (128 out of 1032) of women with self-reported BC only had in-situ carcinoma on BCQ. Another 4.6% (43 out of 932) of BCQ-confirmed cancer did not have a BC registration, and 3.6% (34 out of 932) did not self-report BC. Apparent sensitivity of CR and self-reporting vs BCQ were 95.4 and 96.4%, respectively. Positive-predictive value of self-reporting (87.1%) was significantly lower than that of CR (96.8%). Women aged<65 were more likely to over report in-situ carcinoma as BC. Overall, 73 (6.8%) women would have been misclassified/missed if CR, and 167 (15.6%) if self-reporting data alone was used.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the reliability of BC registration in England/Wales and highlights the fact that 1 in 10 women self-reporting BC might only have in-situ breast carcinoma.

Prevalence, frequency and problem rating of hot flushes persist in older postmenopausal women: impact of age, body mass index, hysterectomy, hormone therapy use, lifestyle and mood in a cross-sectional cohort study of 10,418 British women aged 54-65

OBJECTIVE

Hot flushes and night sweats (HFs/NSs) are the main menopausal symptoms, but few studies have been adequately powered to examine the dimensions or predictors of experiencing HFs/NSs. We report on these variables in a large UK cohort of postmenopausal women.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional cohort study.

SETTING

UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) cohort.

POPULATION

A cohort of 202,638 postmenopausal women, aged 50-74 years, without oophorectomy, recruited to UKCTOCS between 2001 and 2005.

METHODS

Women completed a follow-up questionnaire, and those aged 54-65 years were mailed a survey in July 2008.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

  Hot flush prevalence and hot flush rating scale.

RESULTS

Of the 15,000 women mailed, 10,418 returned completed questionnaires; 90% had previously had HFs/NSs. Despite being on average 10 years postmenopausal, 54% experienced HFs/NSs (frequency of 33 per week with mean problem rating 4/10) that persisted across the age range. Past hysterectomy (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.19-1.86), ever having smoked (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.46) and alcohol consumption (current units) (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09) predicted ever having had HFs/NSs. Anxiety (OR 3.09, 95% CI 2.57-3.72), hysterectomy (OR 2.74, 95% CI 2.32-3.25), depressed mood (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24-1.99), years since last menstrual period (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.96) and education (above and below 18 years) (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) predicted the current prevalence of HFs/NSs. Few predictors of frequency were identified, but problem rating was associated with depressed mood, hysterectomy, skirt size increase and frequency of HFs/NSs. Past hormone therapy users who had discontinued treatment were more likely to have HFs/NSs that were more frequent and problematic.

CONCLUSIONS

To date, this is the largest UK study of the experience of HFs/NSs amongst older postmenopausal women. HFs/NSs are more prevalent in this age band than has previously been assumed. These findings and the associations of smoking, hysterectomy, anxiety, depressed mood and hormone therapy use with the experience of HFs/NSs have implications for prevention and symptom management.

Assessing the malignant potential of ovarian inclusion cysts in postmenopausal women within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the malignant potential of ultrasound-detected ovarian inclusion cysts in the development of ovarian cancer (OC) in postmenopausal women.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

POPULATION

Postmenopausal women.

METHODS

In UKCTOCS, women in the ultrasound group have annual scans. Women with inclusion cysts (single/multiple anechoic ≤10-mm ovarian cysts) and normal ovaries (both uniform hypoechogenicity) on their first scan were identified and followed up through cancer registry/questionnaires.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative risk (RR) of developing OC, invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (iEOC), breast cancer (BC) and endometrial cancer (EC) in women with inclusion cysts relative to those with normal ovaries. The incidence was compared with UK age-adjusted expected rates (Office for National Statistics, 2005).

RESULTS

Postmenopausal women (n = 48,230) attended the year 1 (11 June 2001-6 December 2006) screen; 1234 (2.5%) had inclusion cysts alone and 22,914 had normal scans. By 1 November 2009 (median follow-up, 6.13 years; interquartile range, 4.96-6.98 years), four, three (one Type II), seven and 22 women with inclusion cysts and 32, 29 (20 Type II), 90 and 397 women with normal ovaries were diagnosed with OC, iEOC, EC and BC, respectively. The RR values for the respective cancers (OC [RR, 2.32; confidence interval [CI], 0.86-6.28], iEOC [RR, 1.92; CI, 0.62-5.92], EC [RR, 1.44; CI, 0.68-3.05], BC [RR, 1.12; CI, 0.73-1.73]) were not increased. There was no difference between the observed versus expected incidence rates for these cancers in women with inclusion cysts.

CONCLUSIONS

Postmenopausal women with ultrasound-detected inclusion cysts do not seem to be at increased risk of ovarian or breast/endometrial (hormone-dependent) cancers.

Cell cycle genes and ovarian cancer susceptibility: a tagSNP analysis

Background:

Dysregulation of the cell cycle is a hallmark of many cancers including ovarian cancer, a leading cause of gynaecologic cancer mortality worldwide.

Methods:

We examined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (n=288) from 39 cell cycle regulation genes, including cyclins, cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) and CDK inhibitors, in a two-stage study. White, non-Hispanic cases (n=829) and ovarian cancer-free controls (n=941) were genotyped using an Illumina assay.

Results:

Eleven variants in nine genes (ABL1, CCNB2, CDKN1A, CCND3, E2F2, CDK2, E2F3, CDC2, and CDK7) were associated with risk of ovarian cancer in at least one genetic model. Seven SNPs were then assessed in four additional studies with 1689 cases and 3398 controls. Association between risk of ovarian cancer and ABL1 rs2855192 found in the original population [odds ratio, OR_{BB vs AA} 2.81 (1.29–6.09), P=0.01] was also observed in a replication population, and the association remained suggestive in the combined analysis [OR_{BB vs AA} 1.59 (1.08–2.34), P=0.02]. No other SNP associations remained suggestive in the replication populations.

Conclusion:

ABL1 has been implicated in multiple processes including cell division, cell adhesion and cellular stress response. These results suggest that characterization of the function of genetic variation in this gene in other ovarian cancer populations is warranted.

Tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate oncogenes and susceptibility to ovarian cancer

Low-moderate risk alleles that are relatively common in the population may explain a significant proportion of the excess familial risk of ovarian cancer (OC) not attributed to highly penetrant genes. In this study, we evaluated the risks of OC associated with common germline variants in five oncogenes (BRAF, ERBB2, KRAS, NMI and PIK3CA) known to be involved in OC development. Thirty-four tagging SNPs in these genes were genotyped in approximately 1800 invasive OC cases and 3000 controls from population-based studies in Denmark, the United Kingdom and the United States. We found no evidence of disease association for SNPs in BRAF, KRAS, ERBB2 and PIK3CA when OC was considered as a single disease phenotype; but after stratification by histological subtype, we found borderline evidence of association for SNPs in KRAS and BRAF with mucinous OC and in ERBB2 and PIK3CA with endometrioid OC. For NMI, we identified a SNP (rs11683487) that was associated with a decreased risk of OC (unadjusted P(dominant)=0.004). We then genotyped rs11683487 in another 1097 cases and 1792 controls from an additional three case-control studies from the United States. The combined odds ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-0.99) and remained statistically significant (P(dominant)=0.032). We also identified two haplotypes in ERBB2 associated with an increased OC risk (P(global)=0.034) and a haplotype in BRAF that had a protective effect (P(global)=0.005). In conclusion, these data provide borderline evidence of association for common allelic variation in the NMI with risk of epithelial OC.

Validating genetic risk associations for ovarian cancer through the international Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium

The search for genetic variants associated with ovarian cancer risk has focused on pathways including sex steroid hormones, DNA repair, and cell cycle control. The Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) identified 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes in these pathways, which had been genotyped by Consortium members and a pooled analysis of these data was conducted. Three of the 10 SNPs showed evidence of an association with ovarian cancer at P< or =0.10 in a log-additive model: rs2740574 in CYP3A4 (P=0.011), rs1805386 in LIG4 (P=0.007), and rs3218536 in XRCC2 (P=0.095). Additional genotyping in other OCAC studies was undertaken and only the variant in CYP3A4, rs2740574, continued to show an association in the replication data among homozygous carriers: OR(homozygous(hom))=2.50 (95% CI 0.54-11.57, P=0.24) with 1406 cases and 2827 controls. Overall, in the combined data the odds ratio was 2.81 among carriers of two copies of the minor allele (95% CI 1.20-6.56, P=0.017, p(het) across studies=0.42) with 1969 cases and 3491 controls. There was no association among heterozygous carriers. CYP3A4 encodes a key enzyme in oestrogen metabolism and our finding between rs2740574 and risk of ovarian cancer suggests that this pathway may be involved in ovarian carcinogenesis. Additional follow-up is warranted.