SARS-CoV-2 infection in central North Carolina: Protocol for a population-based longitudinal cohort study and preliminary participant results

Public health surveillance systems likely underestimate the true prevalence and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to limited access to testing and the high proportion of subclinical infections in community-based settings. This ongoing prospective, observational study aimed to generate accurate estimates of the prevalence and incidence of, and risk factors for, SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents of a central North Carolina county. From this cohort, we collected survey data and nasal swabs every two weeks and venous blood specimens every month. Nasal swabs were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus (evidence of active infection), and serum specimens for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies (evidence of prior infection). As of June 23, 2021, we have enrolled a total of 153 participants from a county with an estimated 76,285 total residents. The anticipated study duration is at least 24 months, pending the evolution of the pandemic. Study data are being shared on a monthly basis with North Carolina state health authorities and future analyses aim to compare study data to state-wide metrics over time. Overall, the use of a probability-based sampling design and a well-characterized cohort will enable collection of critical data that can be used in planning and policy decisions for North Carolina and may be informative for other states with similar demographic characteristics.

COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing in the US, 2020

Importance

Contact tracing is a multistep process to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Gaps in the process result in missed opportunities to prevent COVID-19.

Objective

To quantify proportions of cases and their contacts reached by public health authorities and the amount of time needed to reach them and to compare the risk of a positive COVID-19 test result between contacts and the general public during 4-week assessment periods.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study took place at 13 health departments and 1 Indian Health Service Unit in 11 states and 1 tribal nation. Participants included all individuals with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and their named contacts. Local COVID-19 surveillance data were used to determine the numbers of persons reported to have laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were interviewed and named contacts between June and October 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

For contacts, the numbers who were identified, notified of their exposure, and agreed to monitoring were calculated. The median time from index case specimen collection to contact notification was calculated, as were numbers of named contacts subsequently notified of their exposure and monitored. The prevalence of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test among named and tested contacts was compared with that jurisdiction's general population during the same 4 weeks.

Results

The total number of cases reported was 74 185. Of these, 43 931 (59%) were interviewed, and 24 705 (33%) named any contacts. Among the 74 839 named contacts, 53 314 (71%) were notified of their exposure, and 34 345 (46%) agreed to monitoring. A mean of 0.7 contacts were reached by telephone by public health authorities, and only 0.5 contacts per case were monitored. In general, health departments reporting large case counts during the assessment (≥5000) conducted smaller proportions of case interviews and contact notifications. In 9 locations, the median time from specimen collection to contact notification was 6 days or less. In 6 of 8 locations with population comparison data, positive test prevalence was higher among named contacts than the general population.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of US local COVID-19 surveillance data, testing named contacts was a high-yield activity for case finding. However, this assessment suggests that contact tracing had suboptimal impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, largely because 2 of 3 cases were either not reached for interview or named no contacts when interviewed. These findings are relevant to decisions regarding the allocation of public health resources among the various prevention strategies and for the prioritization of case investigations and contact tracing efforts.

Not Just Endocarditis: Hospitalizations for Selected Invasive Infections Among Persons With Opioid and Stimulant Use Diagnoses-North Carolina, 2010-2018

BACKGROUND

While increases in overdoses, viral hepatitis, and endocarditis associated with drug use have been well-documented in North Carolina, the full scope of invasive drug-related infections (IDRIs) has not. We characterized trends in IDRIs among hospitalized patients in North Carolina.

METHODS

We compared invasive infections that were related or not related to drug use among hospitalized patients aged 18-55 years based on retrospective review of administrative records from 2010-2018. Hospitalizations for endocarditis, central nervous system/spine infections, osteomyelitis, and septic arthritis were labeled as IDRIs if discharge codes included opioid and/or amphetamine misuse. Trends, rates, and distributions were calculated.

RESULTS

Among 44 851 hospitalizations for the specified infections, 2830 (6.3%) were IDRIs. The proportion of infections attributable to drug use increased from 1.5% (2010) to 13.1% (2018), and the rate grew from 1.2 to 15.1 per 100 000. Compared with those who had non-drug-related infections, patients with IDRIs were younger (median age, 35 vs 46 years), more likely to be non-Hispanic white (81% vs 56%), and had longer hospitalizations (median, 8 vs 6 days). 43% of hospitalizations for IDRIs involved infective endocarditis.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of IDRIs in North Carolina increased substantially during 2010-2018, indicating an urgent need for enhanced infection prevention, harm reduction, and addiction services aimed at community and inpatient settings.

Increases in Ocular Syphilis-North Carolina, 2014-2015

Background

Ocular syphilis is an inflammatory eye disease due to Treponema pallidum infection. In the United States, syphilis rates have increased since 2000; clusters of ocular syphilis were reported in 2015. We investigated ocular syphilis in North Carolina to describe the epidemiology and clinical course of disease.

Methods

We reviewed syphilis cases reported to North Carolina during 2014-2015 and abstracted information from health department interviews for cases with ocular symptoms and no other defined etiology. To assess duration and severity of ocular symptoms, we also reviewed medical records and conducted structured interviews. We compared the prevalence of ocular manifestations among reported syphilis cases by demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results

Among 4232 syphilis patients, 63 (1.5%) had ocular syphilis: 21 in 2014 and 42 in 2015, a 100% increase. Total syphilis cases increased 35% through 2015. No patient with ocular syphilis named another ocular syphilis patient as a sex partner. Patients presented in all syphilis stages; 24 (38%) were diagnosed in primary or secondary syphilis. Ocular manifestations were more prevalent among syphilis patients who were male, aged ≥40 years, white, and infected with human immunodeficiency virus. No risk behaviors were associated with ocular syphilis. Among 39 interviewed patients, 34 (87%) reported reduced vision during infection; 12 (31%) reported residual visual symptoms posttreatment.

Conclusions

In North Carolina, ocular syphilis increased from 2014 to 2015 and may be due to increased recognition of ocular manifestations, or a true increase in ocular syphilis. Many ocular syphilis patients experienced vision loss; however, most improved posttreatment.

Improvements in timeliness resulting from implementation of electronic laboratory reporting and an electronic disease surveillance system

OBJECTIVES

Electronic laboratory reporting (ELR) reduces the time between communicable disease diagnosis and case reporting to local health departments (LHDs). However, it also imposes burdens on public health agencies, such as increases in the number of unique and duplicate case reports. We assessed how ELR affects the timeliness and accuracy of case report processing within public health agencies.

METHODS

Using data from May-August 2010 and January-March 2012, we assessed timeliness by calculating the time between receiving a case at the LHD and reporting the case to the state (first stage of reporting) and between submitting the report to the state and submitting it to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (second stage of reporting). We assessed accuracy by calculating the proportion of cases returned to the LHD for changes or additional information. We compared timeliness and accuracy for ELR and non-ELR cases.

RESULTS

ELR was associated with decreases in case processing time (median = 40 days for ELR cases vs. 52 days for non-ELR cases in 2010; median = 20 days for ELR cases vs. 25 days for non-ELR cases in 2012; both p<0.001). ELR also allowed time to reduce the backlog of unreported cases. Finally, ELR was associated with higher case reporting accuracy (in 2010, 2% of ELR case reports vs. 8% of non-ELR case reports were returned; in 2012, 2% of ELR case reports vs. 6% of non-ELR case reports were returned; both p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The overall impact of increased ELR is more efficient case processing at both local and state levels.

We can have it all: improved surveillance outcomes and decreased personnel costs associated with electronic reportable disease surveillance, North Carolina, 2010

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the timeliness, accuracy, and cost of a new electronic disease surveillance system at the local health department level. We describe practices associated with lower cost and better surveillance timeliness and accuracy.

METHODS

Interviews conducted May through August 2010 with local health department (LHD) staff at a simple random sample of 30 of 100 North Carolina counties provided information on surveillance practices and costs; we used surveillance system data to calculate timeliness and accuracy. We identified LHDs with best timeliness and accuracy and used these categories to compare surveillance practices and costs.

RESULTS

Local health departments in the top tertiles for surveillance timeliness and accuracy had a lower cost per case reported than LHDs with lower timeliness and accuracy ($71 and $124 per case reported, respectively; P = .03). Best surveillance practices fell into 2 domains: efficient use of the electronic surveillance system and use of surveillance data for local evaluation and program management.

CONCLUSIONS

Timely and accurate surveillance can be achieved in the setting of restricted funding experienced by many LHDs. Adopting best surveillance practices may improve both efficiency and public health outcomes.

Gastroenteritis outbreak associated with unpasteurized tempeh, North Carolina, USA

During an investigation of an outbreak of gastroenteritis caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi B variant L(+) tartrate(+), we identified unpasteurized tempeh as a novel food vehicle and Rhizopus spp. starter culture as the source of the contamination. Safe handling of uncooked, unpasteurized tempeh should be emphasized for prevention of foodborne illnesses.

Preparedness and health risks associated with Moulay Abdellah Amghar moussem, Morocco, 2009-2010

The objective of this study was to describe the risks and human health outcomes associated with attendance at the Moulay Abdellah Amghar moussem (a pre-planned mass gathering attracting more than 360 000 participants) for the purposes of public health prevention, planning, preparedness and response. We performed an environmental health risk assessment and retrospectively reviewed local health centre records before, during and after the event. In addition, standardized interviews with key stakeholders were performed to qualitatively evaluate local public health preparedness and response capacities. During the event, average daily health centre visits increased 5-fold. The sex ratio of health-care visits changed significantly from an average of 1.8:1 female:male visits per day to 1.2:1. The proportion of injuries varied from an average of 3.7% pre- and post-event to 14.8% (P < 0.01) during the event. A significant increase in digestive diseases was also observed during the event. Recommendations include increasing accessibility to free sanitation and hygiene facilities and improving health communications concerning hand washing and food and water safety.

Evaluation of the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System, 2009

BACKGROUND

Violence is a leading cause of death in North Carolina. The North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System (NC-VDRS) is part of the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), which monitors violent deaths and collects information about injuries and psychosocial contributors. Our objective was to describe and evaluate the quality, timeliness, and usefulness of the system.

METHODS

We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems to assess the system. We performed subjective assessment of system attributes by reviewing system documents and interviewing stakeholders. We estimated NC-VDRS's reporting completeness using a capture-recapture method.

RESULTS

Stakeholders considered data provided by NC-VDRS to be of high quality. Reporting to the national system has taken place before the specified 6-month and 18-month deadlines, but local stakeholder reports have been delayed up to 36 months. Stakeholders reported using NC-VDRS data for program planning and community education. The system is estimated to capture all NVDRS-defined cases, but law enforcement officers report only 61% of suicides.

LIMITATIONS

The law enforcement agencies we interviewed may not be representative of all participating agencies in the state. Data sources used to assess completeness were not independent.

CONCLUSION

NC-VDRS is useful and well-accepted. However, completeness of suicide reporting is limited, and reporting to local stakeholders has been delayed. Improving these limitations might improve the usefulness of the system for planning and appropriately targeting violence prevention interventions.

Cluster of oseltamivir-resistant 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infections on a hospital ward among immunocompromised patients--North Carolina, 2009

BACKGROUND

Oseltamivir resistance among 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) viruses (pH1N1) is rare. We investigated a cluster of oseltamivir-resistant pH1N1 infections in a hospital ward.

METHODS

We reviewed patient records and infection control measures and interviewed health care personnel (HCP) and visitors. Oseltamivir-resistant pH1N1 infections were found with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction and pyrosequencing for the H275Y neuraminidase (NA) mutation. We compared hemagglutinin (HA) sequences from clinical samples from the outbreak with those of other surveillance viruses.

RESULTS

During the period 6-11 October 2009, 4 immunocompromised patients within a hematology-oncology ward exhibited symptoms of pH1N1 infection. The likely index patient became febrile 8 days after completing a course of oseltamivir; isolation was instituted 9 days after symptom onset. Three other case patients developed symptoms 1, 3, and 5 days after the index patient. Three case patients were located in adjacent rooms. HA and NA sequences from case patients were identical. Twelve HCP and 6 visitors reported influenza symptoms during the study period. No other pH1N1 isolates from the hospital or from throughout the state carried the H275Y mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

Geographic proximity, temporal clustering, presence of H275Y mutation, and viral sequence homology confirmed nosocomial transmission of oseltamivir-resistant pH1N1. Diagnostic vigilance and prompt isolation may prevent nosocomial transmission of influenza.

Fatal Apophysomyces elegans infection transmitted by deceased donor renal allografts

Two patients developed renal mucormycosis following transplantation of kidneys from the same donor, a near-drowning victim in a motor vehicle crash. Genotypically, indistinguishable strains of Apophysomyces elegans were recovered from both recipients. We investigated the source of the infection including review of medical records, environmental sampling at possible locations of contamination and query for additional cases at other centers. Histopathology of the explanted kidneys revealed extensive vascular invasion by aseptate, fungal hyphae with relative sparing of the renal capsules suggesting a vascular route of contamination. Disseminated infection in the donor could not be definitively established. A. elegans was not recovered from the same lots of reagents used for organ recovery or environmental samples and no other organ transplant-related cases were identified. This investigation suggests either isolated contamination of the organs during recovery or undiagnosed disseminated donor infection following a near-drowning event. Although no changes to current organ recovery or transplant procedures are recommended, public health officials and transplant physicians should consider the possibility of mucormycosis transmitted via organs in the future, particularly for near-drowning events. Attention to aseptic technique during organ recovery and processing is re-emphasized.

Pneumonia incidence and mortality in Mainland China: systematic review of Chinese and English literature, 1985-2008

Background

Pneumonia is a leading infectious disease killer worldwide, yet the burden in China is not well understood as much of the data is published in the non-English literature.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We systematically reviewed the Chinese- and English-language literature for studies with primary data on pneumonia incidence and mortality in mainland China. Between 1985 and 2008, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. The quality of the studies was highly variable. For children <5 years, incidence ranged from 0.06–0.27 episodes per person-year and mortality ranged from 184–1,223 deaths per 100,000 population. Overall incidence and mortality were stable or decreased over the study period and were higher in rural compared to urban areas.

Conclusions/Significance

Pneumonia continues to be a major public health challenge in young children in China, and estimates of pneumonia incidence and mortality vary widely. Reliable surveillance data and new prevention efforts may be needed to achieve and document additional declines, especially in areas with higher incidence and mortality such as rural settings.

Direct cost associated with the development and implementation of a local syndromic surveillance system

OBJECTIVE

Enhancing public health surveillance to include electronic syndromic surveillance systems has received increased attention in recent years. Although cost continually serves as a critical factor in public health decision making, few studies have evaluated direct costs associated with syndromic surveillance systems. In this study, we calculated the direct costs associated with developing and implementing a syndromic surveillance system in Boston, Massachusetts, from the perspective of local, state, and federal governments.

METHODS

Between December 2003 and July 2005, the Boston Public Health Commission (BPHC), in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health developed a syndromic surveillance system in which limited demographic and chief complaint data are collected from all Boston acute care emergency departments every 24 hours. Costs were divided into three categories: development, operation, and upgrade. Within these categories, all fixed and variable costs incurred by both BPHC and CDC were assessed, including those associated with development of syndromic surveillance-related city regulations and system enhancements.

RESULTS

The total estimated direct cost of system development and implementation during the study period was $422,899 ($396,716 invested by BPHC and $26,183 invested by CDC). Syndromic system enhancements to improve situational awareness accounted for $74,389.

CONCLUSION

Development, implementation, and operation of a syndromic surveillance system accounted for a relatively small proportion of surveillance costs in a large urban health department. Funding made available for a future cost-benefit analysis, and an assessment of local epidemiologic capacity will help to guide decisions for local health departments. Although not a replacement for traditional surveillance, syndromic surveillance in Boston is an important and relatively inexpensive component of a comprehensive local public health surveillance system.

Transmission of monkeypox among persons exposed to infected prairie dogs in Indiana in 2003

OBJECTIVE

To describe a cluster of human monkeypox cases associated with exposure to ill prairie dogs in a home child care.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

We identified all persons exposed to 2 pet prairie dogs in County A, Indiana; performed active surveillance for symptomatic monkeypox infection; and evaluated the types of exposure that may have resulted in infection. For children who attended the child care where the animals were housed, we also measured the rate of seroconversion to monkeypox virus.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Nine (13%) of 70 persons exposed to the prairie dogs reported signs and symptoms of monkeypox. Two (40%) of 5 symptomatic child care attendees reported direct contact with the prairie dogs. Two (13%) of 15 child care attendees evaluated tested positive for IgM antibodies against orthopoxvirus; both reported symptoms consistent with monkeypox.

RESULTS

The risk of symptomatic infection correlated with the time and intensity of animal exposure, which was 100% (4/4) among family members with extensive direct contact, 19% (5/26) among the veterinarian and nonfamily child care attendees with moderate exposure, and 0% (0/40) among school children with limited exposure (P<.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Monkeypox virus was transmitted from ill prairie dogs in a child care and veterinary facilities. The risk of symptomatic infection correlated with the amount of exposure to the prairie dogs. Although most cases of human monkeypox were associated with direct animal contact, other routes of transmission cannot be excluded.

Comparing aberration detection methods with simulated data

We compared aberration detection methods requiring historical data to those that require little background by using simulated data. Methods that require less historical data are as sensitive and specific as those that require 3–5 years of data. These simulations can determine which method produces appropriate sensitivity and specificity.

Evaluation of human-to-human transmission of monkeypox from infected patients to health care workers

BACKGROUND

In 2003, human monkeypox was first identified in the United States. The outbreak was associated with exposure to infected prairie dogs, but the potential for person-to-person transmission was a concern. This study examines health care worker (HCW) exposure to 3 patients with confirmed monkeypox.

METHODS

Exposed HCWs, defined as HCWs who entered a 2-m radius surrounding case patients with confirmed monkeypox, were identified by infection-control practitioners. A self-administered questionnaire and analysis of paired serum specimens determined exposure status, immune response, and postexposure signs and symptoms of monkeypox.

RESULTS

Of 81 exposed HCWs, 57 (70%) participated in the study. Among 57 participants, 40 (70%) had > or =1 unprotected exposure; none reported signs or symptoms consistent with monkeypox illness. One exposed HCW (2%), who had been vaccinated for smallpox within the past year, had serological evidence of recent orthopoxvirus infection; acute- and convalescent-phase serum specimens tested positive for anti-orthopoxvirus IgM. No exposed HCWs had signs and symptoms consistent with monkeypox.

CONCLUSION

More than three-quarters of exposed HCWs reported at least 1 unprotected encounter with a patient who had monkeypox. One asymptomatic HCW showed laboratory evidence of recent orthopoxvirus infection, which was possibly attributable to either recent infection or smallpox vaccination. Transmission of monkeypox likely is a rare event in the health care setting.

The validity of chief complaint and discharge diagnosis in emergency department-based syndromic surveillance

OBJECTIVE

Emergency department (ED)-based syndromic surveillance systems are being used by public health departments to monitor for outbreaks of infectious diseases, including bioterrorism; however, few systems have been validated. The authors evaluated a "drop-in" syndromic surveillance system by comparing syndrome categorization in the ED with chief complaints and ED discharge diagnoses from medical record review.

METHODS

A surveillance form was completed for each ED visit at 15 participating Arizona hospitals between October 27 and November 18, 2001. Each patient visit was assigned one of ten clinical syndromes or "none." For six of 15 EDs, kappa statistics were used to compare syndrome agreement between surveillance forms and syndrome categorization with chief complaint and ED discharge diagnosis from medical record review.

RESULTS

Overall, agreement between surveillance forms and ED discharge diagnoses (kappa = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.52 to 0.59) was significantly higher than between surveillance forms and chief complaints (kappa = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.44 to 0.52). Agreement between chief complaints and ED discharge diagnoses was poor for respiratory tract infection with fever (kappa = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.39). Furthermore, pediatric chief complaints showed lower agreement for respiratory tract infection with fever when compared with adults (kappa = 0.34 [95% CI = 0.20 to 0.47] vs. kappa = 0.44 [95% CI = 0.28 to 0.59], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In general, this syndromic surveillance system classified patients into appropriate syndrome categories with fair to good agreement compared with chief complaints and discharge diagnoses. The present findings suggest that use of ED discharge diagnoses, in addition to or instead of chief complaints, may increase surveillance validity for both automated and drop-in syndromic surveillance systems.

Antioxidant supplements and risk of breast cancer recurrence and breast cancer-related mortality among postmenopausal women

Despite widespread use, only a few clinical or epidemiological studies have examined the relationship between antioxidant supplements and risk of breast cancer recurrence or breast cancer-related mortality. We used proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling to estimate rate ratios and odds ratios (ORs) for recurrence and mortality among 385 postmenopausal women diagnosed with breast cancer between 1986 and 1988 enrolled into a case-control study on diet and cancer. Women were recontacted with a single questionnaire to ascertain the use of nutritional supplements during 12-14 yr of follow-up time. In multivariable models, antioxidant supplement users compared with nonusers were less likely to have a breast cancer recurrence or breast cancer-related death (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.27-1.04). Vitamin E supplements showed a modest protective effect when used for more than 3 yr (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.10-1.07). Premorbid dietary intake of vitamins C or E from diet, supplements, or both showed no relationship with risk. Risks of recurrence and disease-related mortality were reduced among women using vitamin C and vitamin E supplements for more than 3 yr. Recall bias among proxy respondents for women who died during follow-up may have contributed to these findings. This study provides limited support for the hypothesis that antioxidant supplements may reduce the risk of breast cancer recurrence or breast cancer-related mortality.

Patterns and outcomes of chemotherapy for elderly patients with stage II ovarian cancer: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The optimal treatment for patients with stage II ovarian cancer is controversial, although most experts recommend adjuvant chemotherapy. The purpose of this study was to assess the patterns of use of chemotherapy in women with stage II ovarian cancer, and to compare the survival of treated and untreated patients aged 65+ years in a population-based sample.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database of cancers diagnosed in approximately 14% of the U.S. population, we identified women who were diagnosed with stage II ovarian cancer between 1992 and 1996, survived >or=120 days beyond diagnosis, and were >or=65 years of age. Multivariate regression was used to compare those treated to those not treated with chemotherapy. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze patient survival.

RESULTS

Of 236 women with stage II ovarian cancer, 160 (67.8%) received chemotherapy, and 118 (50%) received platinum-based regimens. Younger patients and those with higher-grade tumors were more likely to receive chemotherapy. The adjusted hazards ratio for mortality associated with any chemotherapy use was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.45-0.98), corresponding to an increase in median survival from 28 months to 35 months (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This observational study found that most patients aged >or=65 years and diagnosed with stage II ovarian cancer between 1992 and 1996 were treated with chemotherapy. Grade and younger age were the most significant predictors of treatment, and treatment was associated with a 5-year mortality reduction of 33%. These findings are not definitive, but they may provide some guidance in the absence of randomized trials of adjuvant chemotherapy for older women with stage II ovarian cancer.

The West Nile virus epidemic in Arkansas, 2002: the Arkansas Department of Health response

In June 2002, the Arkansas Department of Health anticipated a West Nile virus epidemic based on diagnoses in birds and increasing reports of human disease cases in neighboring states. Department officials activated an emergency operations center (EOC) dedicated to human West Nile virus surveillance. As a result, 43 cases (33 West Nile meningoencephalitis and 10 West Nile fever) and five (12%) deaths were confirmed from 16 counties. For all cases, the median age was 54 years (range: 2-93 years). County-specific incidence of West Nile meningoencephalitis ranged from 0.6-15.9 cases per 100,000 people. The implemented system for enhanced West Nile virus surveillance will serve as a model for future epidemic years.

Risk of malignancy in patients with celiac disease

PURPOSE

Studies from Europe have demonstrated an increased risk of malignancy, especially non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, in patients with celiac disease. However, there are no data on the risk for similar patients in the United States. Our aim was to estimate the risk of malignancy in a cohort of patients with celiac disease compared with the general U.S. population and to determine if a gluten-free diet is protective.

METHODS

Patients with celiac disease seen between July 1981 and January 2000 at a referral center were included. Standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs) (ratio of observed to expected) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, using data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

RESULTS

Forty-three (11%) of 381 celiac disease patients had a diagnosis of cancer; 9 were after the diagnosis of celiac disease, 7 were simultaneous (during same month or admission), and 27 were before the diagnosis. The standardized morbidity ratio for all cancers combined was 1.5 (95% CI: 0.3 to 7.5), with significantly increased values for small bowel cancer (SMR = 34; 95% CI: 24 to 42), esophageal cancer (SMR = 12; 95% CI: 6.5 to 21), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (SMR = 9.1; 95% CI: 4.7 to 13), and melanoma (SMR = 5.0; 95% CI: 2.1 to 12). Following the diagnosis of celiac disease, patients were at increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma only (SMR = 6.2; 95% CI: 2.9 to 14), despite adherence to a gluten-free diet. The non-Hodgkin's lymphoma included both T-cell and B-cell types and occurred in both gastrointestinal (n = 5) and extraintestinal sites (n = 4).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of patients with celiac disease, we observed increased risks of small intestinal adenocarcinoma, esophageal cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma persisted despite a gluten-free diet.

Dietary antioxidants, supplements, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Several studies of dietary and serum antioxidant micronutrients (vitamins A, C, and E and beta-carotene) suggest that higher levels may be protective for ovarian cancer. None of these has examined supplements. We used a food frequency questionnaire and additional questions on supplements to study 168 histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer cases, 159 community controls, and 92 hospital-based controls. Antioxidant consumption from diet or supplements was calculated in milligrams or international units per day. In multivariate analyses using only community controls, the highest levels of intake of vitamins C and E from supplements were protective: odds ratio (OR) = 0.40 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21-0.78] and OR = 0.33 (95% CI = 0.18-0.60), respectively. Consumption of antioxidants from diet was unrelated to risk. In analyses combining antioxidant intake from diet and supplements, vitamins C (> 363 mg/day) and E (> 75 mg/day) were associated with reduced risks: OR = 0.45 (95% CI = 0.22-0.91) and OR = 0.44 (95% CI = 0.21-0.94), respectively. Results were similar, with some attenuation toward the null, in analyses combining both control groups. The levels of vitamins C and E associated with the protective effect were well above the current US Recommended Dietary Allowances. These findings support the hypothesis that antioxidant vitamins C and E from supplements are related to a reduced risk of ovarian cancer.

Use of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy for rectal cancer among the elderly: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Combined adjuvant fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy with radiation is now the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer in the United States. We investigated the use of these treatments for stages II and III rectal cancer among the elderly and the effectiveness of these treatments on a population-based scale.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results-Medicare database was used to identify 1,807 Medicare beneficiaries > or = 65 years of age with stage II or III rectal cancer who underwent surgical resection between 1992 and 1996. We excluded members of a health maintenance organization in the 12 months before or 4 months after their diagnosis and those who died within 4 months of diagnosis. We used multivariate analysis to identify factors associated with combined 5-FU and radiation therapy, and propensity score methodology to determine survival benefit for those treated.

RESULTS

We found that 37% of patients received both adjuvant 5-FU and radiation therapy, 11% 5-FU alone, and 14% radiation alone. Decreasing age, increasing lymph node positivity, comorbid conditions, and nonblack race were associated with increased probability of treatment with 5-FU and radiation. Combined chemotherapy/radiation therapy was associated with improved survival for stage III (relative risk, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.90), but not for stage II rectal cancer (relative risk, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 1.14).

CONCLUSION

The association of combined treatment with improved survival in node-positive disease was similar to that observed in other studies. In the absence of data from well-designed randomized controlled trials, our observational data support efforts on the part of clinicians to make appropriate referrals and provide combined treatment for elderly patients with stage III rectal cancer.

Garlic and cancer: a critical review of the epidemiologic literature

Animal and in vitro studies provide evidence of an anticarcinogenic effect of active ingredients in garlic. This review of the epidemiologic literature on garlic consumption addresses cancers of the stomach, colon, head and neck, lung, breast and prostate. Nineteen studies reported relative risk estimates for garlic consumption and cancer incidence. Site-specific case-control studies of stomach and colorectal cancer, in which multiple reports were available, suggest a protective effect of high intake of raw and/or cooked garlic. Cohort studies confirm this inverse association for colorectal cancer. Few cohort and case-control studies for other sites of cancer exist. Garlic supplements, as analyzed in four cohort studies and one case-control report, from two distinct populations, do not appear to be related to risk. Low study power, lack of variability in garlic consumption categorization within studies and poor adjustment for potential cofounders may limit the reliability of any conclusions regarding garlic supplements. However, an indication of publication bias was also found by visual inspection of a funnel plot and in a log-rank test (P = 0.004). Evidence from available studies nevertheless suggests a preventive effect of garlic consumption in stomach and colorectal cancers. The study limitations indicate the need for more definitive research and improved nutritional epidemiologic analyses of dietary data.

Garlic consumption and cancer prevention: meta-analyses of colorectal and stomach cancers

BACKGROUND

Animal and in vitro studies have provided evidence of an anticarcinogenic effect of active ingredients in garlic.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to conduct meta-analyses of the epidemiologic literature on the association between garlic consumption and risk of stomach, colon, head and neck, lung, breast, and prostate cancers.

DESIGN

Meta-analyses were conducted for all cancers mutually and separately for colorectal and stomach cancers in relation to consumption of exclusively raw garlic, cooked garlic, or both (RC garlic). Eighteen studies reported a relative risk estimate for RC garlic consumption and cancer risk.

RESULTS

In the meta-analyses of colorectal and stomach cancer, the reference categories ranged from no consumption to consumption of 3.5 g/wk, whereas the highest categories ranged from any consumption to >28.8 g/wk. The average difference between the highest and lowest categories was 16 g/wk. The random-effects relative risk (RR) estimate of colorectal cancer and RC garlic consumption, excluding garlic supplements, was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.89). For stomach cancer, the random-effects RR estimate was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.92). The heterogeneity among studies for the latter outcome (P: = 0.0002) indicates the questionableness of the generalizability of this summary estimate. An indication of publication bias for all cancers combined is evident from a funnel plot of RC garlic consumption and cancer risk and from the results of the Begg and Mazumdar test (P: = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

High intake of RC garlic may be associated with a protective effect against stomach and colorectal cancers. Heterogeneity of effect estimates, differences in dose estimation, publication bias, and possible alternative hypotheses (eg, confounding by total vegetable consumption) preclude sole reliance on summary effect estimates.