Continuous Glucose Monitor Metrics Are Associated with Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations for Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemia, but Have Low Predictive Value

Objective: Determine whether continuous glucose monitor (CGM) metrics can provide actionable advance warning of an emergency department (ED) visit or hospitalization for hypoglycemic or hyperglycemic (dysglycemic) events. Research Design and Methods: Two nested case-control studies were conducted among insulin-treated diabetes patients at Kaiser Permanente, who shared their CGM data with their providers. Cases included dysglycemic events identified from ED and hospital records (2016-2021). Controls were selected using incidence density sampling. Multiple CGM metrics were calculated among patients using CGM >70% of the time, using CGM data from two lookback periods (0-7 and 8-14 days) before each event. Generalized estimating equations were specified to estimate odds ratios and C-statistics. Results: Among 3626 CGM users, 108 patients had 154 hypoglycemic events and 165 patients had 335 hyperglycemic events. Approximately 25% of patients had no CGM data during either lookback; these patients had >2 × the odds of a hypoglycemic event and 3-4 × the odds of a hyperglycemic event. While several metrics were strongly associated with a dysglycemic event, none had good discrimination. Conclusion: Several CGM metrics were strongly associated with risk of dysglycemic events, and these can be used to identify higher risk patients. Also, patients who are not using their CGM device may be at elevated risk of adverse outcomes. However, no CGM metric or absence of CGM data had adequate discrimination to reliably provide actionable advance warning of an event and thus justify a rapid intervention.

Reply to: Disease latency and new-user versus prevalent-user cohort designs: Implications for pharmacoepidemiology in dementia

This letter comments on the letter by Wu and Swardfager in this issue.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Addressing the unique challenges in studies of long-term medication use and dementia risk

This editorial comments on the article by Wu et al. in this issue.

Severe hypoglycemia and falls in older adults with diabetes: The Diabetes & Aging Study

Objective

To estimate rates of severe hypoglycemia and falls among older adults with diabetes and evaluate their association.

Research Design and Methods

Survey in an age-stratified, random sample adults with diabetes age 65-100 years; respondents were asked about severe hypoglycemia (requiring assistance) and falls in the past 12 months. Prevalence ratios (adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity) estimated the increased risk of falls associated with severe hypoglycemia.

Results

Among 2,158 survey respondents, 79 (3.7%) reported severe hypoglycemia, of whom 68 (86.1%) had no ED visit or hospitalization for hypoglycemia. Falls were reported by 847 (39.2%), of whom 745 (88.0%) had no fall documented in outpatient or inpatient records. Severe hypoglycemia was associated with a 70% greater prevalence of falls (adjusted prevalence ratio = 1.7 (95% CI, 1.3-2.2)).

Conclusion

While clinical documentation of events likely reflects severity or care-seeking behavior, severe hypoglycemia and falls are common, under-reported life-threatening events.

Hospice Quality, Race, and Disenrollment in Hospice Enrollees With Dementia

Background: Racial and ethnic minoritized people with dementia (PWD) are at high risk of disenrollment from hospice, yet little is known about the relationship between hospice quality and racial disparities in disenrollment among PWD. Objective: To assess the association between race and disenrollment between and within hospice quality categories in PWD. Design/Setting/Subjects: Retrospective cohort study of 100% Medicare beneficiaries 65+ enrolled in hospice with a principal diagnosis of dementia, July 2012-December 2017. Race and ethnicity (White/Black/Hispanic/Asian and Pacific Islander [AAPI]) was assessed with the Research Triangle Institute (RTI) algorithm. Hospice quality was assessed with the publicly-available Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey item on overall hospice rating, including a category for hospices exempt from public reporting (unrated). Results: The sample included 673,102 PWD (mean age 86, 66% female, 85% White, 7.3% Black, 6.3% Hispanic, 1.6% AAPI) enrolled in 4371 hospices nationwide. Likelihood of disenrollment was higher in hospices in the lowest quartile of quality ratings (vs. highest quartile) for both White (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.12 [95% confidence interval 1.06-1.19]) and minoritized PWD (AOR range 1.2-1.3) and was substantially higher in unrated hospices (AOR range 1.8-2.0). Within both low- and high-quality hospices, minoritized PWD were more likely to be disenrolled compared with White PWD (AOR range 1.18-1.45). Conclusions: Hospice quality predicts disenrollment, but does not fully explain disparities in disenrollment for minoritized PWD. Efforts to improve racial equity in hospice should focus both on increasing equity in access to high-quality hospices and improving care for racial minoritized PWD in all hospices.

The Growing Role of Technology in the Care of Older Adults With Diabetes

The integration of technologies such as continuous glucose monitors, insulin pumps, and smart pens into diabetes management has the potential to support the transformation of health care services that provide a higher quality of diabetes care, lower costs and administrative burdens, and greater empowerment for people with diabetes and their caregivers. Among people with diabetes, older adults are a distinct subpopulation in terms of their clinical heterogeneity, care priorities, and technology integration. The scientific evidence and clinical experience with these technologies among older adults are growing but are still modest. In this review, we describe the current knowledge regarding the impact of technology in older adults with diabetes, identify major barriers to the use of existing and emerging technologies, describe areas of care that could be optimized by technology, and identify areas for future research to fulfill the potential promise of evidence-based technology integrated into care for this important population.

The Epidemiology of Smoking in Older Adults: A National Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older smokers account for the greatest tobacco-related morbidity and mortality in the USA, while quitting smoking remains the single most effective preventive health intervention for reducing the risk of smoking-related illness. Yet, knowledge about patterns of smoking and smoking cessation in older adults is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

Assess trends in prevalence of cigarette smoking between 1998 and 2018 and identify patterns and predictors of smoking cessation in US older adults.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 55+ enrolled in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study, 1998-2018 MAIN MEASURES: Current smoking was assessed with the question: "Do you smoke cigarettes now?" Quitting smoking was defined as having at least two consecutive waves (between 2 and 4 years) in which participants who were current smokers in 1998 reported they were not currently smoking in subsequent waves.

KEY RESULTS

Age-adjusted smoking prevalence decreased from 15.9% in 1998 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.2, 16.7) to 11.2% in 2018 (95% CI 10.4, 12.1). Among 2187 current smokers in 1998 (mean age 64, 56% female), 56% of those living to age 90 had a sustained period of smoking cessation. Smoking less than 10 cigarettes/day was strongly associated with an increased likelihood of quitting smoking (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.3; 95% CI 1.9, 2.8), compared to those who smoked more than 20 cigarettes/day.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking prevalence among older persons has declined and substantial numbers of older smokers succeed in quitting smoking for a sustained period. These findings highlight the need for continued aggressive efforts at tobacco cessation among older persons.

New psychotropic medication use among Medicare beneficiaries with dementia after hospital discharge

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations among people with dementia (PWD) may precipitate behavioral changes, leading to the psychotropic medication use despite adverse outcomes and limited efficacy. We sought to determine the incidence of new psychotropic medication use among community-dwelling PWD after hospital discharge and, among new users, the proportion with prolonged use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using a 20% random sample of Medicare claims in 2017, including hospitalized PWD with traditional and Part D Medicare who were 68 years or older. The primary outcome was incident prescribing at discharge of psychotropics including antipsychotics, sedative-hypnotics, antiepileptics, and antidepressants. This was defined as new prescription fills (i.e., from classes not used in 180 days preadmission) within 7 days of hospital or skilled nursing facility discharge. Prolonged use was defined as the proportion of new users who continued to fill newly prescribed medications beyond 90 days of discharge.

RESULTS

The cohort included 117,022 hospitalized PWD with a mean age of 81 years; 63% were female. Preadmission, 63% were using at least 1 psychotropic medication; 10% were using medications from ≥3 psychotropic classes. These included antidepressants (44% preadmission), antiepileptics (29%), sedative-hypnotics (21%), and antipsychotics (11%). The proportion of PWD discharged from the hospital with new psychotropics ranged from 1.9% (antipsychotics) to 2.9% (antiepileptics); 6.6% had at least one new class started. Among new users, prolonged use ranged from 36% (sedative-hypnotics) to 63% (antidepressants); across drug classes, prolonged use occurred in 51%. Predictors of newly initiated psychotropics included length of stay (≥median vs.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalized PWD have a high prevalence of preadmission psychotropic medication use; against this baseline, discharge from the hospital with new psychotropics is relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, prolonged use of newly initiated psychotropics occurs in a substantial proportion of this population.

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Key Words

• dementia
• hospitalization
• prescribing
• psychotropics

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Female
• Aged
• United States
• Aged, 80 and over
• Male
• Patient Discharge
• Retrospective Studies
• Anticonvulsants/therapeutic use
• Dementia/drug therapy
• Medicare
• Psychotropic Drugs/therapeutic use
• Antipsychotic Agents/therapeutic use
• Antidepressive Agents/therapeutic use
• Hospitals
• Hypnotics and Sedatives/therapeutic use

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Grants

• K12 HS026383 AHRQ HHS
• L30 AG074160 NIA NIH HHS
• R24 AG064025 NIA NIH HHS
• K24 AG049057 NIA NIH HHS
• R35 AG071916 NIA NIH HHS
• R03 AG064373 NIA NIH HHS
• T32 AG000212 NIA NIH HHS
• P01 AG066605 NIA NIH HHS
• K01 AG073532 NIA NIH HHS
• P30 AG044281 NIA NIH HHS
• R03 AG078804 NIA NIH HHS

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Affiliation(s)

Matthew E Growdon Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Geriatrics, Palliative, and Extended Care Service Line, San Francisco VA Medical Center, San Francisco, California, USA
Siqi Gan Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Northern California Institute for Research and Education, San Francisco, California, USA
Kristine Yaffe Mental Health, San Francisco VA Medical Center, San Francisco, California, USA Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Departments of Neurology and Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
Alexandra K Lee Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Geriatrics, Palliative, and Extended Care Service Line, San Francisco VA Medical Center, San Francisco, California, USA
Timothy S Anderson Division of General Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Ulrike Muench Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
W John Boscardin Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
Michael A Steinman Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA Geriatrics, Palliative, and Extended Care Service Line, San Francisco VA Medical Center, San Francisco, California, USA

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Fingerstick glucose monitoring by cognitive impairment status in Veterans Affairs nursing home residents with diabetes

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend nursing home (NH) residents with cognitive impairment receive less intensive glycemic treatment and less frequent fingerstick monitoring. Our objective was to determine whether current practice aligns with guideline recommendations by examining fingerstick frequency in Veterans Affairs (VA) NH residents with diabetes across cognitive impairment levels.

METHODS

We identified VA NH residents with diabetes aged ≥65 residing in VA NHs for >30 days between 2016 and 2019. Residents were grouped by cognitive impairment status based on the Cognitive Function Scale: cognitively intact, mild impairment, moderate impairment, and severe impairment. We also categorized residents into mutually exclusive glucose-lowering medication (GLM) categories: (1) no GLMs, (2) metformin only, (3) sulfonylureas/other GLMs (+/- metformin but no insulin), (4) long-acting insulin (+/- oral/other GLMs but no short-acting insulin), and (5) any short-acting insulin. Our outcome was mean daily fingersticks on day 31 of NH admission.

RESULTS

Among 13,637 NH residents, mean age was 75 years and mean hemoglobin A1c was 7.0%. The percentage of NH residents on short-acting insulin varied by cognitive status from 22.7% in residents with severe cognitive impairment to 33.9% in residents who were cognitively intact. Mean daily fingersticks overall on day 31 was 1.50 (standard deviation = 1.73). There was a greater range in mean fingersticks across GLM categories compared to cognitive status. Fingersticks ranged widely across GLM categories from 0.39 per day (no GLMs) to 3.08 (short-acting insulin), while fingersticks ranged slightly across levels of cognitive impairment from 1.11 (severe cognitive impairment) to 1.59 (cognitively intact).

CONCLUSION

NH residents receive frequent fingersticks regardless of level of cognitive impairment, suggesting that cognitive status is a minor consideration in monitoring decisions. Future studies should determine whether decreasing fingersticks in NH residents with moderate/severe cognitive impairment can reduce burdens without compromising safety.

A comprehensive prognostic tool for older adults: Predicting death, ADL disability, and walking disability simultaneously

BACKGROUND

Many clinical and financial decisions for older adults depend on the future risk of disability and mortality. Prognostic tools for long-term disability risk in a general population are lacking. We aimed to create a comprehensive prognostic tool that predicts the risk of mortality, of activities of daily living (ADL) disability, and walking disability simultaneously using the same set of variables.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal analysis of the nationally-representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We included community-dwelling adults aged ≥70 years who completed a core interview in the 2000 wave of HRS, with follow-up through 2018. We evaluated 40 predictors encompassing demographics, diseases, physical functioning, and instrumental ADLs. We applied novel methods to optimize three models simultaneously while prioritizing variables that take less time to ascertain during backward stepwise elimination. The death prediction model used Cox regression and both the models for walking disability and for ADL disability used Fine and Gray competing-risk regression. We examined calibration plots and generated optimism-corrected statistics of discrimination using bootstrapping. To simulate unavailable patient data, we also evaluated models excluding one or two variables from the final model.

RESULTS

In 6646 HRS participants, 2662 developed walking disability, 3570 developed ADL disability, and 5689 died during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The final prognostic tool had 16 variables. The optimism-corrected integrated area under the curve (iAUC) was 0.799 for mortality, 0.685 for walking disability, and 0.703 for ADL disability. At each percentile of predicted mortality risk, there was a substantial spread in the predicted risks of walking disability and ADL disability. Discrimination and calibration remained good even when missing one or two predictors from the model. This model is now available on ePrognosis (https://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/alexlee.php) CONCLUSIONS: Given the variability in disability risk for people with similar mortality risks, using individualized risks of disabilities may inform clinical and financial decisions for older adults.

Bilateral vertebral arteries entering the C4 foramen transversarium with the left vertebral artery originating from the aortic arch

Vertebral arteries (VAs) serve as major blood vessels to the central nervous system. VAs typically arise from the subclavian arteries and ascend separately within the transverse foramina of the cervical vertebrae (C6-C1) before entering the skull at the foramen magnum and joining at the base of the pons to form the basilar artery of the vertebrobasilar circulation. Therefore, variations in the origin and anatomic course of the VAs have implications for invasive medical procedures involving the superior thoracic/cervical regions or the cervical vertebrae. The current case report describes variation in the entry point of both VAs and the site of origin of the left vertebral artery. The variation was revealed during routine dissection of a 72-year-old female cadaver. It was found that the left vertebral artery originated directly from the aortic arch to abnormally enter the transverse foramen of C4 instead of the transverse foramen of C6. The right vertebral artery arose as usual from the right subclavian artery. However, the right vertebral artery also directly entered the transverse foramen of C4 instead of the transverse foramen of C6.

Comparing Machine Learning to Regression Methods for Mortality Prediction Using Veterans Affairs Electronic Health Record Clinical Data

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether machine learning methods yield more accurate electronic health record (EHR) prediction models compared with traditional regression methods.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to compare machine learning and traditional regression models for 10-year mortality prediction using EHR data.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study.

SETTING

Veterans Affairs (VA) EHR data.

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans age above 50 with a primary care visit in 2005, divided into separate training and testing cohorts (n= 124,360 each).

MEASUREMENTS AND ANALYTIC METHODS

The primary outcome was 10-year all-cause mortality. We considered 924 potential predictors across a wide range of EHR data elements including demographics (3), vital signs (9), medication classes (399), disease diagnoses (293), laboratory results (71), and health care utilization (149). We compared discrimination (c-statistics), calibration metrics, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values) of machine learning and regression models.

RESULTS

Our cohort mean age (SD) was 68.2 (10.5), 93.9% were male; 39.4% died within 10 years. Models yielded testing cohort c-statistics between 0.827 and 0.837. Utilizing all 924 predictors, the Gradient Boosting model yielded the highest c-statistic [0.837, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.835-0.839]. The full (unselected) logistic regression model had the highest c-statistic of regression models (0.833, 95% CI: 0.830-0.835) but showed evidence of overfitting. The discrimination of the stepwise selection logistic model (101 predictors) was similar (0.832, 95% CI: 0.830-0.834) with minimal overfitting. All models were well-calibrated and had similar diagnostic test characteristics.

LIMITATION

Our results should be confirmed in non-VA EHRs.

CONCLUSION

The differences in c-statistic between the best machine learning model (924-predictor Gradient Boosting) and 101-predictor stepwise logistic models for 10-year mortality prediction were modest, suggesting stepwise regression methods continue to be a reasonable method for VA EHR mortality prediction model development.

Do functional status and Medicare claims data improve the predictive accuracy of an electronic health record mortality index? Findings from a national Veterans Affairs cohort

Background

Electronic health record (EHR) prediction models may be easier to use in busy clinical settings since EHR data can be auto-populated into models. This study assessed whether adding functional status and/or Medicare claims data (which are often not available in EHRs) improves the accuracy of a previously developed Veterans Affairs (VA) EHR-based mortality index.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of veterans aged 75 years and older enrolled in VA primary care clinics followed from January 2014 to April 2020 (n = 62,014). We randomly split participants into development (n = 49,612) and validation (n = 12,402) cohorts. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We performed logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop a 100-predictor base model using 854 EHR candidate variables, including demographics, laboratory values, medications, healthcare utilization, diagnosis codes, and vitals. We incorporated functional measures in a base + function model by adding activities of daily living (range 0-5) and instrumental activities of daily living (range 0-7) scores. Medicare data, including healthcare utilization (e.g., emergency department visits, hospitalizations) and diagnosis codes, were incorporated in a base + Medicare model. A base + function + Medicare model included all data elements. We assessed model performance with the c-statistic, reclassification metrics, fraction of new information provided, and calibration plots.

Results

In the overall cohort, mean age was 82.6 years and 98.6% were male. At the end of follow-up, 30,263 participants (48.8%) had died. The base model c-statistic was 0.809 (95% CI 0.805-0.812) in the development cohort and 0.804 (95% CI 0.796-0.812) in the validation cohort. Validation cohort c-statistics for the base + function, base + Medicare, and base + function + Medicare models were 0.809 (95% CI 0.801-0.816), 0.811 (95% CI 0.803-0.818), and 0.814 (95% CI 0.807-0.822), respectively. Adding functional status and Medicare data resulted in similarly small improvements among other model performance measures. All models showed excellent calibration.

Conclusions

Incorporation of functional status and Medicare data into a VA EHR-based mortality index led to small but likely clinically insignificant improvements in model performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03126-z.

Predicting Life Expectancy to Target Cancer Screening Using Electronic Health Record Clinical Data

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend breast and colorectal cancer screening for older adults with a life expectancy >10 years. Most mortality indexes require clinician data entry, presenting a barrier for routine use in care. Electronic health records (EHR) are a rich clinical data source that could be used to create individualized life expectancy predictions to identify patients for cancer screening without data entry.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and internally validate a life expectancy calculator from structured EHR data.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using national Veteran's Affairs (VA) EHR databases.

PATIENTS

Veterans aged 50+ with a primary care visit during 2005.

MAIN MEASURES

We assessed demographics, diseases, medications, laboratory results, healthcare utilization, and vital signs 1 year prior to the index visit. Mortality follow-up was complete through 2017. Using the development cohort (80% sample), we used LASSO Cox regression to select ~100 predictors from 913 EHR data elements. In the validation cohort (remaining 20% sample), we calculated the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and evaluated calibration.

KEY RESULTS

In 3,705,122 patients, the mean age was 68 years and the majority were male (97%) and white (85%); nearly half (49%) died. The life expectancy calculator included 93 predictors; age and gender most strongly contributed to discrimination; diseases also contributed significantly while vital signs were negligible. The iAUC was 0.816 (95% confidence interval, 0.815, 0.817) with good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a life expectancy calculator using VA EHR data with excellent discrimination and calibration. Automated life expectancy prediction using EHR data may improve guideline-concordant breast and colorectal cancer screening by identifying patients with a life expectancy >10 years.

Intensification of Diabetes Medications at Hospital Discharge and Clinical Outcomes in Older Adults in the Veterans Administration Health System

IMPORTANCE

Transient elevations of blood glucose levels are common in hospitalized older adults with diabetes and may lead clinicians to discharge patients with more intensive diabetes medications than they were using before hospitalization.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate outcomes associated with intensification of outpatient diabetes medications at discharge.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study assessed patients 65 years and older with diabetes not taking insulin who were hospitalized in the Veterans Health Administration Health System between January 1, 2011, and September 28, 2016, for common medical conditions. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021.

EXPOSURE

Discharge with intensified diabetes medications, defined as filling a prescription at hospital discharge for a new or higher-dose medication than was being used before hospitalization. Propensity scores were used to construct a matched cohort of patients who did and did not receive diabetes medication intensifications.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Coprimary outcomes of severe hypoglycemia and severe hyperglycemia were assessed at 30 and 365 days using competing risk regressions. Secondary outcomes included all-cause readmissions, mortality, change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, and persistent use of intensified medications at 1 year after discharge.

RESULTS

The propensity-matched cohort included 5296 older adults with diabetes (mean [SD] age, 73.7 [7.7] years; 5212 [98.4%] male; and 867 [16.4%] Black, 47 [0.9%] Hispanic, 4138 [78.1%] White), equally split between those who did and did not receive diabetes medication intensifications at hospital discharge. Within 30 days, patients who received medication intensifications had a higher risk of severe hypoglycemia (hazard ratio [HR], 2.17; 95% CI, 1.10-4.28), no difference in risk of severe hyperglycemia (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.33-3.08), and a lower risk of death (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.33-0.92). At 1 year, no differences were found in the risk of severe hypoglycemia events, severe hyperglycemia events, or death and no difference in change in HbA1c level was found among those who did vs did not receive intensifications (mean postdischarge HbA1c, 7.72% vs 7.70%; difference-in-differences, 0.02%; 95% CI, -0.12% to 0.16%). At 1 year, 48.0% (591 of 1231) of new oral diabetes medications and 38.5% (548 of 1423) of new insulin prescriptions filled at discharge were no longer being filled.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this national cohort study, among older adults hospitalized for common medical conditions, discharge with intensified diabetes medications was associated with an increased short-term risk of severe hypoglycemia events but was not associated with reduced severe hyperglycemia events or improve HbA1c control. These findings indicate that short-term hospitalization may not be an effective time to intervene in long-term diabetes management.

Biomarkers of Kidney Tubule Health, CKD Progression, and Acute Kidney Injury in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Participants

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) compared the effect of intensive versus standard systolic blood pressure targets on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In this ancillary study, we evaluated the use of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to combine biomarkers of kidney tubule health in urine and plasma and then study their role in longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change and risk of acute kidney injury (AKI).

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort nested in a clinical trial.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

2,351 SPRINT participants with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² at baseline.

EXPOSURE

Levels of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin 18 (IL-18), chitinase-3-like protein (YKL-40), kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), α₁-microglobulin (A1M) and β₂-microglobulin (B2M), uromodulin (UMOD), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), and intact parathyroid hormone (PTH).

OUTCOME

Longitudinal changes in eGFR and risk of AKI.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

We performed EFA to capture different tubule pathophysiologic processes. We used linear mixed effects models to evaluate the association of each factor with longitudinal changes in eGFR. We evaluated the association of the tubular factors scores with AKI using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

From 10 biomarkers, EFA generated 4 factors reflecting tubule injury/repair (NGAL, IL-18, and YKL-40), tubule injury/fibrosis (KIM-1 and MCP-1), tubule reabsorption (A1M and B2M), and tubule reserve/mineral metabolism (UMOD, FGF-23, and PTH). Each 1-SD higher tubule reserve/mineral metabolism factor score was associated with a 0.58% (95% CI, 0.39%-0.67%) faster eGFR decline independent of baseline eGFR and albuminuria. Both the tubule injury/repair and tubule injury/fibrosis factors were independently associated with future risk of AKI (per 1 SD higher, HRs of 1.18 [95% CI, 1.10-1.37] and 1.23 [95% CI, 1.02-1.48], respectively).

LIMITATIONS

The factors require validation in other settings.

CONCLUSIONS

EFA allows parsimonious subgrouping of biomarkers into factors that are differentially associated with progressive eGFR decline and AKI. These subgroups may provide insights into the pathological processes driving adverse kidney outcomes.

Association of Urine Biomarkers of Kidney Tubule Injury and Dysfunction With Frailty Index and Cognitive Function in Persons With CKD in SPRINT

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The associations of the glomerular markers of kidney disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, with frailty and cognition are well established. However, the relationship of kidney tubule injury and dysfunction with frailty and cognition is unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cross-sectional study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

2,253 participants with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m² in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT).

EXPOSURE

Eight urine biomarkers: interleukin 18 (IL-18), kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), chitinase-3-like protein 1 (YKL-40), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), α₁-microglobulin (A1M), β₂-microglobulin (B2M), and uromodulin (Umod).

OUTCOME

Frailty was measured using a previously validated frailty index (FI), categorized as fit (FI≤0.10), less fit (0.10<FI≤0.21), and frail (FI>0.21). Cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Associations between kidney tubule biomarkers with categorical FI were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression with the fit group as the reference. Cognitive function was evaluated using linear regression. Models were adjusted for demographic, behavioral, and clinical variables including eGFR and urine albumin.

RESULTS

Three of the 8 urine biomarkers of tubule injury and dysfunction were independently associated with FI. Each 2-fold higher level of urine KIM-1, a marker of tubule injury, was associated with a 1.22 (95% CI, 1.01-1.49) greater odds of being in the frail group. MCP-1, a marker of tubulointerstitial fibrosis, was associated with a 1.30 (95% CI, 1.04-1.64) greater odds of being in the frail group, and A1M, a marker of tubule reabsorptive capacity, was associated with a 1.48 (95% CI, 1.11-1.96) greater odds of being in the frail group. These associations were independent of confounders including eGFR and urine albumin, and were stronger than those of urine albumin with FI (1.15 [95% CI, 0.99-1.34]). Higher urine B2M, another marker of tubule reabsorptive capacity, was associated with worse cognitive scores at baseline (β: -0.09 [95% CI, -0.17 to-0.01]). Urine albumin was not associated with cognitive function.

LIMITATIONS

Cross-sectional design, and FI may not be generalizable in other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Urine biomarkers of tubule injury, fibrosis, and proximal tubule reabsorptive capacity are variably associated with FI and worse cognition, independent of glomerular markers of kidney health. Future studies are needed to validate these results among other patient populations.

Severe Hypoglycemia, Cardiac Structure and Function, and Risk of Cardiovascular Events Among Older Adults With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of severe hypoglycemia measured at baseline with cardiovascular disease (CVD) among community-dwelling older individuals with diabetes, a group particularly susceptible to hypoglycemia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included older adults with diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who attended visit 5 (2011-2013, baseline). Severe hypoglycemia at baseline was defined with use of first position ICD-9 codes from hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and ambulance calls. We examined cross-sectional associations of severe hypoglycemia with echocardiographic indices of cardiac structure-function. We prospectively evaluated the risks of incident or recurrent CVD (coronary heart disease, stroke, or heart failure) and all-cause mortality, from baseline to 31 December 2018, using negative binomial and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Among 2,193 participants (mean [SD] age 76 [5] years, 57% female, 32% Blacks), 79 had a history of severe hypoglycemia at baseline. Severe hypoglycemia was associated with a lower left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (adjusted β-coefficient -3.66% [95% CI -5.54, -1.78]), higher LV end diastolic volume (14.80 mL [95% CI 8.77, 20.84]), higher E-to-A ratio (0.11 [95% CI 0.03, 0.18]), and higher septal E/e' (2.48 [95% CI 1.13, 3.82]). In adjusted models, severe hypoglycemia was associated with incident or recurrent CVD (incidence rate ratio 2.19 (95% CI 1.24, 3.88]) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.71 [95% CI 1.10, 2.67]) among those without prevalent CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that a history of severe hypoglycemia is associated with alterations in cardiac function and is an important marker of future cardiovascular risk in older adults.

FGF23, Frailty, and Falls in SPRINT

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with frailty. Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is elevated in CKD and associated with frailty among non-CKD older adults and individuals with human immunodeficiency virus. Whether FGF23 is associated with frailty and falls in CKD is unknown.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional and longitudinal observational study.

SETTING

Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), a randomized trial evaluating standard (systolic blood pressure [SBP] <140 mm Hg) versus intensive (SBP <120 mm Hg) blood pressure lowering on cardiovascular and cognitive outcomes among older adults without diabetes mellitus.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2,376 participants with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 mL/min/1.73 m² ).

MEASUREMENTS

The exposure variable was intact FGF23. We used multinomial logistic regression to determine the cross-sectional association of intact FGF23 with frailty and Cox proportional hazards analysis to determine the longitudinal association with incident falls. Models were adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, randomization group, antihypertensives, eGFR, mineral metabolism markers, and frailty.

RESULTS

After adjustment, the odds ratio for prevalent frailty versus non-frailty per twofold higher FGF23 was 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.77). FGF23 levels in the highest quartile versus the lowest quartile demonstrated more than a twofold increased fall risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.32; 95% CI = 1.26-4.26), and the HR per twofold higher FGF23 was 1.99 (95% CI = 1.48-2.68).

CONCLUSION

Among SPRINT participants with CKD, FGF23 was associated with prevalent frailty and falls.

Associations of 1,5-Anhydroglucitol and 2-Hour Glucose with Major Clinical Outcomes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

1,5-Anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) is a novel biomarker of glycemic control proposed to monitor recent hyperglycemic excursions in persons with diabetes. The clinical utility of 1,5-AG outside of diagnosed diabetes is unclear, but it may identify people at high risk for diabetes and its complications. We compared associations of 1,5-AG with 2-h glucose for risk of major clinical complications.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We prospectively followed 6644 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants without diagnosed diabetes for incident diagnosed diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality for ∼20 years. We assessed associations of 1,5-AG and 2-h glucose (modeled categorically and continuously with restricted cubic splines) with adverse outcomes using Cox models and evaluated improvement in risk discrimination using Harrell's c-statistic.

RESULTS

1,5-AG <10 µg/mL was statistically significantly associated with incident diabetes (HR: 2.70, 95% CI 2.31, 3.15), and showed suggestion of association with the other outcomes compared to 1,5-AG ≥10 µg/mL. Continuous associations of 1,5-AG with outcomes displayed a clear threshold effect, with risk associations generally observed only <10 µg/mL. Comparing associations of 1,5-AG and 2-h glucose with outcomes resulted in larger c-statistics for 2-h glucose than 1,5-AG for all outcomes (difference in c-statistic [2-h glucose -1,5-AG] for diagnosed diabetes: 0.17 [95%CI, 0.15, 0.19]; chronic kidney disease 0.02 [95%CI 0.00, 0.05]; cardiovascular disease 0.03 [95%CI, 0.00, 0.06]; and all-cause mortality 0.04 [95%CI, 0.02, 0.06]).

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based population without diagnosed diabetes, low 1,5-AG was modestly associated with major clinical outcomes and did not outperform 2-h glucose.

Fingerstick Glucose Monitoring in Veterans Affairs Nursing Home Residents with Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Guidelines recommend less intensive glycemic treatment and less frequent glucose monitoring for nursing home (NH) residents. However, little is known about the frequency of fingerstick (FS) glucose monitoring in this population. Our objective was to examine the frequency of FS glucose monitoring in Veterans Affairs (VA) NH residents with diabetes mellitus, type II (T2DM).

DESIGN AND SETTING

National retrospective cohort study in 140 VA NHs.

PARTICIPANTS

NH residents with T2DM and older than 65 years admitted to VA NHs between 2013 and 2015 following discharge from a VA hospital.

MEASUREMENTS

NH residents were classified into five groups based on their highest hypoglycemia risk glucose-lowering medication (GLM) each day: no GLMs; metformin only; sulfonylureas; long-acting insulin; and any short-acting insulin. Our outcome was a daily count of FS measurements.

RESULTS

Among 17,474 VA NH residents, mean age was 76 (standard deviation (SD) = 8) years and mean hemoglobin A1c was 7.6% (SD = 1.5%). On day 1 after NH admission, 49% of NH residents were on short-acting insulin, decreasing slightly to 43% at day 90. Overall, NH residents had an average of 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.8-1.9) FS measurements on NH day 1, decreasing to 1.4 (95% CI = 1.3-1.4) by day 90. NH residents on short-acting insulin had the most frequent FS measurements, with 3.0 measurements (95% CI = 2.9-3.0) on day 1, decreasing to 2.6 measurements (95% CI = 2.5-2.7) by day 90. Less frequent FS measurements were seen for NH residents receiving long-acting insulin (2.1 (95% CI = 2.0-2.2) on day 1) and sulfonylureas (1.7 (95% CI = 1.5-1.8) on day 1). Even NH residents on metformin monotherapy had 1.1 (95% CI = 1.1-1.2) measurements on day 1, decreasing to 0.5 (95% CI = 0.4-0.6) measurements on day 90.

CONCLUSION

Although guidelines recommend less frequent glucose monitoring for NH residents, we found that many VA NH residents receive frequent FS monitoring. Given the uncertain benefits and potential for substantial patient burdens and harms, our results suggest decreasing FS monitoring may be warranted for many low hypoglycemia risk NH residents.

Improving the American Diabetes Association Framework for individualizing treatment in older adults: evaluating life expectancy

INTRODUCTION

For older adults with type 2 diabetes, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) Framework uses comorbidities and functional status to categorize patients by estimated life expectancy to guide individualization of glycemic treatment. We evaluated whether modifying the ADA Framework by removing three comorbidities and incorporating age could improve life expectancy stratification and better identify patients likely to benefit from intensive treatment.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We examined 3166 Health and Retirement Study participants aged ≥65 with diabetes from 1998 to 2004, using a prospective cohort design with mortality follow-up through 2016. We classified participants into one of three ADA Framework categories: Healthy, Intermediate Health, and Poor Health. We created modified categories by excluding comorbidities weakly associated with mortality (hypertension, arthritis, and incontinence). Using Gompertz regression, we estimated life expectancy across age strata for both original and modified ADA Framework categories.

RESULTS

The original ADA Framework classified 34% as Healthy (likely to benefit from intensive treatment), 50% as Intermediate Health, and 16% as Poor Health (unlikely to benefit from intensive treatment). Our comorbidity modification reclassified 20% of participants from Intermediate Health to Healthy. Using the modified ADA Framework, median life expectancy of the Healthy varied greatly by age (aged 65-69: 16.3 years; aged ≥80: 7.6 years), indicating differing likelihood of benefit. Additionally, age ≥80 made extended life expectancy unlikely (median life expectancy for Healthy 7.6 years, Intermediate Health 5.9 years, Poor Health 2.5 years), suggesting adults ≥80 are unlikely to benefit from intensive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Modifying the ADA Framework by incorporating age and focusing on comorbidities associated with mortality improved life expectancy stratification, resulting in different treatment recommendations for many older adults.

Severe Hypoglycemia and Risk of Falls in Type 2 Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

Hypoglycemia has been postulated to contribute to falls risk in older adults with type 2 diabetes. However, few studies have prospectively examined the association between severe hypoglycemia and falls, both important causes of morbidity and mortality.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study with diagnosed diabetes at visit 4 (1996-1998). Episodes of severe hypoglycemia requiring medical treatment were identified using ICD-9 codes from hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and ambulance calls; total falls were identified from medical claims using E-codes from 1996 to 2013. Secondary analyses examined hospitalized falls and falls with fracture. We calculated incidence rates and used Cox regression models to evaluate the independent association of severe hypoglycemia with falls occurring after visit 4 through 2013.

RESULTS

Among 1,162 participants with diabetes, 149 ever had a severe hypoglycemic event before baseline or during the median of 13.1 years of follow-up. The crude incidence rate of falls among persons without severe hypoglycemia was 2.17 per 100 person-years (PY) (95% CI 1.93-2.44) compared with 8.81 per 100 PY (6.73-11.53) with severe hypoglycemia. After adjustment, severe hypoglycemia was associated with a more than twofold higher risk of falls (hazard ratio 2.23, 95% CI 1.61-3.07). Associations were consistent in subgroups defined by age, sex, race, BMI, duration of diabetes, or functional difficulty.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe hypoglycemia was associated with a substantially higher risk of falls in this community-based population of adults with diabetes. Fall risk should be considered when individualizing glycemic treatment in older adults. Assessing hypoglycemia history and future hypoglycemia risk could also improve multifactorial fall prevention interventions for older adults with diabetes.

The Risks of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality Following Weight Change in Adults with Diabetes: Results from ADVANCE

CONTEXT

Weight loss is strongly recommended for overweight and obese adults with type 2 diabetes. Unintentional weight loss is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, but few studies have examined its association with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate 2-year weight change and subsequent risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in established type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation was an international, multisite 2×2 factorial trial of intensive glucose control and blood pressure control. We examined 5 categories of 2-year weight change: >10% loss, 4% to 10% loss, stable (±<4%), 4% to 10% gain, and >10% gain. We used Cox regression with follow-up time starting at 2 years, adjusting for intervention arm, demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and diabetes medication use from the 2-year visit.

RESULTS

Among 10 081 participants with valid weight measurements, average age was 66 years. By the 2-year examination, 4.3% had >10% weight loss, 18.4% had 4% to 10% weight loss, and 5.3% had >10% weight gain. Over the following 3 years of the trial, >10% weight loss was strongly associated with major macrovascular events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-2.44), cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.87-4.09), all-cause mortality (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.10-3.71), but not major microvascular events (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.61-1.36), compared with stable weight. There was no evidence of effect modification by baseline body mass index, age, or type of diabetes medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of substantial lifestyle changes, weight loss may be a warning sign of poor health meriting further workup in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Cancer Survivorship and Subclinical Myocardial Damage

Cancer survivors might have an excess risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) resulting from toxicities of cancer therapies and a high burden of CVD risk factors. We sought to evaluate the association of cancer survivorship with subclinical myocardial damage, as assessed by elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) test results. We included 3,512 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who attended visit 5 (2011-2013) and were free of CVD (coronary heart disease, heart failure, or stroke). We used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the cross-sectional associations of survivorship from any, non-sex-related, and sex-related cancers (e.g., breast, prostate) with elevated hs-cTnT (≥14 ng/L). Of 3,512 participants (mean age, 76 years; 62% women; 21% black), 19% were cancer survivors. Cancer survivors had significantly higher odds of elevated hs-cTnT (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.53). Results were similar for survivors of non-sex-related and colorectal cancers, but there was no association between survivorship from breast and prostate cancers and elevated hs-cTnT. Results were similar after additional adjustments for CVD risk factors. Survivors of some cancers might be more likely to have elevated hs-cTnT than persons without prior cancer. The excess burden of subclinical myocardial damage in this population might not be fully explained by traditional CVD risk factors.

Markers of kidney tubule function and risk of cardiovascular disease events and mortality in the SPRINT trial

AIMS

Biomarkers of kidney tubule injury, inflammation and fibrosis have been studied extensively and established as risk markers of adverse kidney and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes. However, associations of markers of kidney tubular function with adverse clinical events have not been well studied, especially in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using a sample of 2377 persons with CKD at the baseline Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) visit, we evaluated the association of three urine tubular function markers, alpha-1 microglobulin (α1m), beta-2 microglobulin (β2m), and uromodulin, with a composite CVD endpoint (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, or death from cardiovascular causes) and mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria, and CVD risk factors. In unadjusted analysis, over a median follow-up of 3.8 years, α1m and β2m had positive associations with composite CVD events and mortality, whereas uromodulin had an inverse association with risk for both outcomes. In multivariable analysis including eGFR and albuminuria, a two-fold higher baseline concentration of α1m was associated with higher risk of CVD [hazard ratio (HR) 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.45] and mortality (HR 1.25; 95% CI: 1.10-1.46), whereas β2m had no association with either outcome. A two-fold higher uromodulin concentration was associated with lower CVD risk (HR 0.79; 95% CI: 0.68-0.90) but not mortality (HR 0.86; 95% CI: 0.73-1.01) after adjusting for similar confounders.

CONCLUSION

Among non-diabetic persons with CKD, biomarkers of tubular function are associated with CVD events and mortality independent of glomerular function and albuminuria.

Association Between Midlife Risk Factors and Late-Onset Epilepsy: Results From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Importance

The incidence of epilepsy is higher in older age than at any other period of life. Stroke, dementia, and hypertension are associated with late-onset epilepsy; however, the role of other vascular and lifestyle factors remains unclear.

Objective

To identify midlife vascular and lifestyle risk factors for late-onset epilepsy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study is a prospective cohort study of 15 792 participants followed up since 1987 to 1989 with in-person visits, telephone calls, and surveillance of hospitalizations (10 974 invited without completing enrollment). The ARIC is a multicenter study with participants selected from 4 US communities. This study included 10 420 black or white participants from ARIC with at least 2 years of Medicare fee-for-service coverage and without missing baseline data. Data were analyzed betweeen April 2017 and May 2018.

Exposures

Demographic, vascular, lifestyle, and other possible epilepsy risk factors measured at baseline (age 45-64 years) were evaluated in multivariable survival models including demographics, vascular risk factors, and lifestyle risk factors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Time to development of late-onset epilepsy (2 or more International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for epilepsy or seizures starting at 60 years or older in any claim [hospitalization or outpatient Medicare through 2013]), with first code for seizures after at least 2 years without code for seizures.

Results

Of the 10 420 total participants (5878 women [56.4%] and 2794 black participants [26.8%]; median age 55 years at first visit), 596 participants developed late-onset epilepsy (3.33 per 1000 person-years). The incidence was higher in black than in white participants (4.71; 95% CI, 4.12-5.40 vs 2.88; 95% CI, 2.60-3.18 per 1000 person-years). In multivariable analysis, baseline hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.55), diabetes (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.17-1.80), smoking (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17), apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype (1 allele HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.02-1.45; 2 alleles HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.35-2.81), and incident stroke (HR, 3.38; 95% CI, 2.78-4.10) and dementia (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.11-3.12) were associated with an increased risk of late-onset epilepsy, while higher levels of physical activity (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.90) were associated with a lower risk. Results were similar after censoring individuals with stroke or dementia.

Conclusions and Relevance

Potentially modifiable risk factors in midlife and the APOE ε4 genotype were positively associated with risk of developing late-onset epilepsy. Although stroke and dementia were both associated with late-onset epilepsy, vascular and lifestyle risk factors were significant even in the absence of stroke or dementia.

Distinct Dimensions of Kidney Health and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease, Heart Failure, and Mortality

Chronic kidney disease is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but clinical kidney measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria) do not fully reflect the multiple aspects of kidney tubules influencing cardiovascular health. Applied methods are needed to integrate numerous tubule biomarkers into useful prognostic scores. In SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants with chronic kidney disease at baseline (estimated glomerular filtration ratecr&cys <60 mL/minute per 1.73 m2), we measured 8 biomarkers from urine (α1M [α1M microglobulin], β2M [β2M microglobulin], umod [uromodulin], KIM-1 [kidney injury molecule-1], MCP-1 [monocyte chemoattractant protein-1], YKL-40 [chitinase-3-like protein-1], NGAL [neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin], and IL-18 [interleukin 18]) and 2 biomarkers from serum (intact parathyroid hormone, iFGF-23 [intact fibroblast growth factor-23]). We used an unsupervised method, exploratory factor analysis, to create summary scores of tubule health dimensions. Adjusted Cox models evaluated each tubule score with CVD events, heart failure, and all-cause mortality. We examined CVD discrimination using Harrell C-statistic. Factor analysis of 10 biomarkers from 2376 SPRINT-chronic kidney disease participants identified 4 unique dimensions of tubular health: tubule injury/repair (NGAL, IL-18, YKL-40), tubule injury/fibrosis (KIM-1, MCP-1), tubule reabsorption (α1M, β2M), and tubular reserve/mineral metabolism (umod, intact parathyroid hormone, iFGF-23). After adjustment for CVD risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio, 2 of the 4 tubule scores were associated with CVD (hazard ratio per SD; reabsorption, 1.21 [1.06-1.38]; reserve, 1.24 (1.08-1.38]), 1 with heart failure (reserve, 1.41 [1.13-1.74]), and none with mortality. Compared with a base model (C-statistic=0.674), adding estimated glomerular filtration rate and albumin-to-creatinine ratio improved the C-statistic (C=0.704; P=0.001); further adding tubule scores additionally improved the C-statistic (C=0.719; P=0.009). In the setting of chronic kidney disease, dimensions of tubule health quantified using factor analysis improved CVD discrimination beyond contemporary kidney measures. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01206062.

The SPRINT trial suggests that markers of tubule cell function in the urine associate with risk of subsequent acute kidney injury while injury markers elevate after the injury

Urine markers can quantify tubular function including reabsorption (α-1 microglobulin [α1m]) and β-2-microglobulin [β2m]) and protein synthesis (uromodulin). Individuals with tubular dysfunction may be less able to compensate to insults than those without, despite similar estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Among Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) participants with an eGFR under 60 ml/min/1.73m2, we measured urine markers of tubular function and injury (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin [NGAL], kidney injury molecule-1 [KIM-1], interleukin-18 [IL-18], monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and chitinase-3-like protein [YKL-40]) at baseline. Cox models evaluated associations with subsequent acute kidney injury (AKI) risk, adjusting for clinical risk factors, baseline eGFR and albuminuria, and the tubular function and injury markers. In a random subset, we remeasured biomarkers after four years, and compared changes in biomarkers in those with and without intervening AKI. Among 2351 participants, 184 experienced AKI during 3.8 years mean follow-up. Lower uromodulin (hazard ratio per two-fold higher (0.68, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.83]) and higher α1m (1.20; [1.01, 1.44]) were associated with subsequent AKI, independent of eGFR and albuminuria. None of the five injury markers were associated with eventual AKI. In the random subset of 947 patients with repeated measurements, the 59 patients with intervening AKI versus without had longitudinal increases in urine NGAL, IL-19, and YKL-40 and only 1 marker of tubule function (α1m). Thus, joint evaluation of tubule function and injury provided novel insights to factors predisposing to AKI, and responses to kidney injury.

Relation of Isolated Systolic Hypertension and Pulse Pressure to High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin-T and N-Terminal pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in Older Adults (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study)

Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) and elevated pulse pressure (PP) are common blood pressure (BP) abnormalities in older adults, reflect poor vascular compliance, and can signify risk for cardiovascular outcomes. We sought to characterize the associations of ISH and widened PP with high-sensitivity Troponin-T (hs-cTnT; a marker of myocardial damage) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; a marker of hemodynamic stress) levels in older adults. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 5,251 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants without heart failure who attended visit 5 (2011 to 2013). We used logistic regression to evaluate the association of ISH (systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg and diastolic BP < 90 mm Hg) and quartiles of PP with detectable (≥5 ng/L) and elevated hs-cTnT (≥14 ng/L); as well as elevated NT-proBNP (≥100 pg/mL). The mean age was 75 years, 58% were women, and 78% were white. ISH was present in 24.7% and PP ≥ 70 mm Hg in 30.3% of this cohort. Compared to participants with nonhypertensive BP (<140/90 mm Hg), ISH was independently associated with hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP; adjusted odds ratio of 1.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.1 to 1.9) for detectable hs-cTnT; 1.3 (1.1 to 1.5) for elevated hs-cTnT; and 1.8 (1.6 to 2.1) for elevated NT-proBNP. Increasing quartiles of PP were also significantly associated with both elevated hs-cTnT (p-for-trend <0.0001) and NT-proBNP (p-for-trend <0.0001). These associations were not modified by BP treatment status. In conclusion, ISH and wide PP are relatively common in older adults despite contemporary BP treatment and are associated with abnormalities in hs-cTnT and NT-pro BNP, findings that could guide personalized treatment of older patients with these BP aberrations.

Urinary Biomarkers of Tubular Damage Are Associated with Mortality but Not Cardiovascular Risk among Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participants with Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Kidney tubulointerstitial fibrosis on biopsy is a strong predictor of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, and CKD is associated with elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Tubular health is poorly quantified by traditional kidney function measures, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. We hypothesized that urinary biomarkers of tubular injury, inflammation, and repair would be associated with higher risk of CVD and mortality in persons with CKD.

METHODS

We measured urinary concentrations of interleukin-18 (IL-18), kidney injury molecule-1, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and chitinase-3-like protein-1 (YKL-40) at baseline among 2,377 participants of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial who had an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate biomarker associations with CVD events and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean age of participants was 72 ± 9 years, and eGFR was 48 ± 11 mL/min/1.73 m2. Over a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 305 CVD events (3.6% per year) and 233 all-cause deaths (2.6% per year) occurred. After multivariable adjustment including eGFR, albuminuria, and urinary creatinine, none of the biomarkers showed statistically significant associations with CVD risk. Urinary IL-18 (hazard ratio [HR] per 2-fold higher value, 1.14; 95% CI 1.01-1.29) and YKL-40 (HR per 2-fold higher value, 1.08; 95% CI 1.02-1.14) concentrations were each incrementally associated with higher mortality risk. Associations were similar when stratified by randomized blood pressure arm.

CONCLUSIONS

Among hypertensive trial participants with CKD, higher urinary IL-18 and YKL-40 were associated with higher risk of mortality, but not CVD.

Association between white matter hyperintensities, cortical volumes, and late-onset epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

To identify the association between brain vascular changes and cortical volumes on MRI and late-onset epilepsy.

METHODS

In 1993-1995, 1,920 participants (median age 62.7, 59.9% female) in the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study underwent MRI, and white matter hyperintensities were measured. In addition, in 2011-2013, 1,964 ARIC participants (median age 72.4, 61.1% female) underwent MRI, and cortical volumes and white matter hyperintensities were measured. We identified cases of late-onset epilepsy (starting at age 60 or later) from ARIC hospitalization records and Medicare claims data. Using the 1993-1995 MRI, we evaluated the association between white matter hyperintensities and subsequent epilepsy using survival analysis. We used the 2011-2013 MRI to conduct cross-sectional logistic regression to examine the association of cortical volumes and white matter hyperintensities with late-onset epilepsy. All models were adjusted for demographics, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and APOE ε4 allele status.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven ARIC participants developed epilepsy after having an MRI in 1993-1995 (incidence 3.34 per 1,000 person-years). The degree of white matter hyperintensities measured at ages 49-72 years was associated with the risk of late-onset epilepsy (hazard ratio 1.27 per age-adjusted SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.54). Lower cortical volume scores were associated cross-sectionally with higher odds of late-onset epilepsy (odds ratio 1.87, 95% CI 1.16-3.02) per age-adjusted SD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates associations between earlier-life white matter hyperintensities on MRI and later-life incident epilepsy, and between cortical volumes measured later in life and late-onset epilepsy. These findings may help illuminate the causes of late-onset epilepsy.

Severe hypoglycaemia, mild cognitive impairment, dementia and brain volumes in older adults with type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to evaluate the link between severe hypoglycaemia and domain-specific cognitive decline, smaller brain volumes and dementia in adults with type 2 diabetes, which so far has been relatively poorly characterised.

METHODS

We included participants with diagnosed diabetes from the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. At the participants' fifth study visit (2011-2013), we examined the cross-sectional associations of severe hypoglycaemia with cognitive status, brain volumes and prior 15 year cognitive decline. We also conducted a prospective survival analysis of incident dementia from baseline, visit 4 (1996-1998), to 31 December 2013. Severe hypoglycaemia was identified, using ICD-9 codes, from hospitalisations, emergency department visits and ambulance records. Prior cognitive decline was defined as change in neuropsychological test scores from visit 4 (1996-1998) to visit 5 (2011-2013). At visit 5, a subset of participants underwent brain MRIs. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, APOE genotype, use of diabetes medication, duration of diabetes and glycaemic control.

RESULTS

Among 2001 participants with diabetes at visit 5 (mean age 76 years), a history of severe hypoglycaemia (3.1% of participants) was associated with dementia (vs normal cognitive status): OR 2.34 (95% CI 1.04, 5.27). In the subset of participants who had undergone brain MRI (n = 580), hypoglycaemia was associated with smaller total brain volume (-0.308 SD, 95% CI -0.612, -0.004). Hypoglycaemia was nominally associated with a 15 year cognitive change (-0.14 SD, 95% CI -0.34, 0.06). In prospective analysis (n = 1263), hypoglycaemia was strongly associated with incident dementia (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.78, 3.63).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our results demonstrate a strong link between severe hypoglycaemia and poor cognitive outcomes, suggesting a need for discussion of appropriate diabetes treatments for high-risk older adults.

Diabetes and Trajectories of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate: A Prospective Cohort Analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

OBJECTIVE

To characterize long-term kidney disease trajectories in persons with and without diabetes in a general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We classified 15,517 participants in the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study by diabetes status at baseline (1987-1989; no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes). We used linear mixed models with random intercepts and slopes to quantify estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories at four visits over 26 years.

RESULTS

Adjusted mean eGFR decline over the full study period among participants without diabetes was -1.4 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (95% CI -1.5 to -1.4), with undiagnosed diabetes was -1.8 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (95% CI -2.0 to -1.7) (difference vs. no diabetes, P < 0.001), and with diagnosed diabetes was -2.5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (95% CI -2.6 to -2.4) (difference vs. no diabetes, P < 0.001). Among participants with diagnosed diabetes, risk factors for steeper eGFR decline included African American race, APOL1 high-risk genotype, systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg, insulin use, and higher HbA1c.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes is an important risk factor for kidney function decline. Those with diagnosed diabetes declined almost twice as rapidly as those without diabetes. Among people with diagnosed diabetes, steeper declines were seen in those with modifiable risk factors, including hypertension and glycemic control, suggesting areas for continued targeting in kidney disease prevention.

The Association of Severe Hypoglycemia With Incident Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There is suggestive evidence linking hypoglycemia with cardiovascular disease, but few data have been collected in a community-based setting. Information is lacking on individual cardiovascular outcomes and cause-specific mortality.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of 1,209 participants with diagnosed diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (analytic baseline, 1996-1998). Severe hypoglycemic episodes were identified using first position ICD-9 codes from hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and ambulance calls through 2013. Cardiovascular events and deaths were captured through 2013. We used adjusted Cox regression models with hypoglycemia as a time-varying exposure.

RESULTS

There were 195 participants with at least one severe hypoglycemic episode during a median fellow-up of 15.3 years. After severe hypoglycemia, the 3-year cumulative incidence of coronary heart disease was 10.8% and of mortality was 28.3%. After adjustment, severe hypoglycemia was associated with coronary heart disease (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02, 95% CI 1.27-3.20), all-cause mortality (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.38-2.17), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.15-2.34), and cancer mortality (HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.46-4.24). Hypoglycemia was not associated with stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or noncardiovascular and noncancer death. Results were robust within subgroups defined by age, sex, race, diabetes duration, and baseline cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe hypoglycemia is clearly indicative of declining health and is a potent marker of high absolute risk of cardiovascular events and mortality.

Identifying Trends in Undiagnosed Diabetes in U.S. Adults by Using a Confirmatory Definition: A Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

A common belief is that one quarter to one third of all diabetes cases remain undiagnosed. However, such prevalence estimates may be overstated by epidemiologic studies that do not use confirmatory testing, as recommended by clinical diagnostic criteria.

OBJECTIVE

To provide national estimates of undiagnosed diabetes by using a confirmatory testing strategy, in line with clinical practice guidelines.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey results from 1988 to 1994 and 1999 to 2014.

PARTICIPANTS

U.S. adults aged 20 years and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes was defined as elevated levels of fasting glucose (≥7.0 mmol/L [≥126 mg/dL]) and hemoglobin A1c (≥6.5%) in persons without diagnosed diabetes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of total (diagnosed plus confirmed undiagnosed) diabetes increased from 5.5% (9.7 million adults) in 1988 to 1994 to 10.8% (25.5 million adults) in 2011 to 2014. Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes increased during the past 2 decades (from 0.89% in 1988 to 1994 to 1.2% in 2011 to 2014) but has decreased over time as a proportion of total diabetes cases. In 1988 to 1994, the percentage of total diabetes cases that were undiagnosed was 16.3%; by 2011 to 2014, this estimate had decreased to 10.9%. Undiagnosed diabetes was more common in overweight or obese adults, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities (including Asian Americans), and persons lacking health insurance or access to health care.

LIMITATION

Cross-sectional design.

CONCLUSION

Establishing the burden of undiagnosed diabetes is critical to monitoring public health efforts related to screening and diagnosis. When a confirmatory definition is used, undiagnosed diabetes is a relatively small fraction of the total diabetes population; most U.S. adults with diabetes (about 90%) have received a diagnosis of the condition.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Risk Factors for Severe Hypoglycemia in Black and White Adults With Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

Severe hypoglycemia is a rare but important complication of type 2 diabetes. Few studies have examined the epidemiology of hypoglycemia in a community-based population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 1,206 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants with diagnosed diabetes (baseline: 1996-1998). Severe hypoglycemic events were identified through 2013 by ICD-9 codes from claims for hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and ambulance use. We used Cox regression to evaluate risk factors for severe hypoglycemia.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 64 years, 32% were black, and 54% were female. During a median follow-up period of 15.2 years, there were 185 severe hypoglycemic events. Important risk factors after multivariable adjustment were as follows: age (per 5 years: hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95% CI 1.07-1.43), black race (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.02-1.88), diabetes medications (any insulin use vs. no medications: HR 3.00; 95% CI 1.71-5.28; oral medications only vs. no medications: HR 2.20; 95% CI 1.28-3.76), glycemic control (moderate vs. good: HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.11-2.83; poor vs. good: HR 2.62; 95% CI 1.67-4.10), macroalbuminuria (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.23-3.07), and poor cognitive function (Digit Symbol Substitution Test z score: HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.33-1.84). In an analysis of nontraditional risk factors, low 1,5-anhydroglucitol, difficulty with activities of daily living, Medicaid insurance, and antidepressant use were positively associated with severe hypoglycemia after multivariate adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor glycemic control, glycemic variability as captured by 1,5-anhydroglucitol, kidney damage, and measures of cognitive and functional impairments were strongly associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycemia. These factors should be considered in hypoglycemia risk assessments when individualizing diabetes care for older adults.

Sugars and adiposity: the long-term effects of consuming added and naturally occurring sugars in foods and in beverages

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine if the association with adiposity varies by the type (added vs. naturally occurring) and form (liquid vs. solid) of dietary sugars consumed.

METHODS

Data from the 10-year National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Growth and Health Study (n = 2,021 girls aged 9-10 years at baseline; n = 5,156 paired observations) were used. Using mixed linear models, 1-year changes in sugar intake, body mass index z-score (BMIz) and waist circumference (WC) were assessed.

RESULTS

The results showed mean daily added sugar (AS) intake: 10.3 tsp (41 g) liquid; 11.6 tsp (46 g) solid and naturally occurring sugar intake: 2.6 tsp (10 g) liquid; 2.2 tsp (9 g) solid. Before total energy adjustment, each additional teaspoon of liquid AS was associated with a 0.222-mm increase in WC (p = 0.0003) and a 0.002 increase in BMIz (p = 0.003). Each teaspoon of solid AS was associated with a 0.126-mm increase in WC (p = 0.03) and a 0.001 increase in BMIz (p = 0.03). Adjusting for total energy, this association was maintained only between liquid AS and WC among all and between solid AS and WC among those overweight/obese only. There was no significant association with naturally occurring sugar.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate to suggest a positive association between AS intake (liquid and solid) and BMI that is mediated by total energy intake and an association with WC that is independent of it.

Automated Telephone Self-Management Support for Diabetes in a Low-Income Health Plan: A Health Care Utilization and Cost Analysis

The objective was to determine whether automated telephone self-management support (ATSM) for low-income, linguistically diverse health plan members with diabetes affects health care utilization or cost. A government-sponsored managed care plan for low-income patients implemented a demonstration project between 2009 and 2011 that involved a 6-month ATSM intervention for 362 English-, Spanish-, or Cantonese-speaking members with diabetes from 4 publicly funded clinics. Participants were randomized to immediate intervention or a wait-list. Medical and pharmacy claims used in this analysis were obtained from the managed care plan. Medical claims included hospitalizations, ambulance use, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits. In the 6-month period following enrollment, intervention participants generated half as many emergency department visits and hospitalizations (rate ratio 0.52, 95% CI 0.26, 1.04) compared to wait-listed participants, but these differences did not reach statistical significance (P=0.06). With adjustment for prior year cost, intervention participants also had a nonsignificant reduction of $26.78 in total health care costs compared to wait-listed individuals (P=0.93). The observed trends suggest that ATSM could yield potential health service benefits for health plans that provide coverage for chronic disease patients in safety net settings. ATSM should be further scaled up to determine whether it is associated with a greater reduction in health care utilization and costs.

Sodium content in packaged foods by census division in the United States, 2009

Excess sodium intake correlates positively with high blood pressure. Blood pressure varies by region, but whether sodium content of foods sold varies across regions is unknown. We combined nutrition and sales data from 2009 to assess the regional variation of sodium in packaged food products sold in 3 of the 9 US census divisions. Although sodium density and concentration differed little by region, fewer than half of selected food products met Food and Drug Administration sodium-per-serving conditions for labeling as "healthy." Regional differences in hypertension were not reflected in differences in the sodium content of packaged foods from grocery stores.

The role of the hepatocyte growth factor/c-MET pathway in pancreatic stellate cell-endothelial cell interactions: antiangiogenic implications in pancreatic cancer

Activated cancer-associated human pancreatic stellate cells (CAhPSCs, which produce the collagenous stroma of pancreatic cancer [PC]) are known to play a major role in PC progression. Apart from inducing cancer cell proliferation and migration, CAhPSCs have also been implicated in neoangiogenesis in PC. However, the mechanisms mediating the observed angiogenic effects of CAhPSCs are unknown. A candidate pathway that may be involved in this process is the hepatocyte growth factor (HGF)/c-MET pathway and its helper molecule, urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA). This study investigated the effects of CAhPSC secretions on endothelial cell function in the presence and absence of HGF, c-MET and uPA inhibitors. HGF levels in CAhPSC secretions were quantified using ELISA. CAhPSC secretions were then incubated with human microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1) and angiogenesis assessed by quantifying HMEC-1 tube formation and proliferation. CAhPSC-secreted HGF significantly increased HMEC-1 tube formation and proliferation; notably, these effects were downregulated by inhibition of HGF, its receptor c-MET and uPA. Phosphorylation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase was downregulated during inhibition of the HGF/c-MET pathway, whereas phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase and ERK1/2 remained unaffected. Our studies have shown for the first time that CAhPSCs induce proliferation and tube formation of HMEC-1 and that the HGF/c-MET pathway plays a major role in this induction. Given that standard antiangiogenic treatment targeting vascular endothelial growth factor has had limited success in the clinical setting, the findings of the current study provide strong support for a novel, alternative antiangiogenic approach targeting the HGF/c-MET and uPA pathways in PC.

Consumption of less than 10% of total energy from added sugars is associated with increasing HDL in females during adolescence: a longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerotic changes associated with dyslipidemia and increased cardiovascular disease risk are believed to begin in childhood. While previous studies have linked added sugars consumption to low high-density lipoprotein (HDL), little is known about the long-term impact of this consumption. This study aims to assess the association between added sugars intake and HDL cholesterol levels during adolescence, and whether this association is modified by obesity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute's Growth and Health Study, a 10-year cohort study of non-Hispanic Caucasian and African-American girls (N=2379) aged 9 and 10 years at baseline recruited from 3 sites in 1987-1988 with biennial plasma lipid measurement and annual assessment of diet using a 3-day food record. Added sugars consumption was dichotomized into low (0% to <10% of total energy) and high (≥10% of total energy). In a mixed model controlling for obesity, race, physical activity, smoking, maturation stage, age, and nutritional factors, low compared with high added sugar consumption was associated with a 0.26 mg/dL greater annual increase in HDL levels (95% CI 0.48 to 0.04; P=0.02). Over the 10-year study period, the model predicted a mean increase of 2.2 mg/dL (95% CI 0.09 to 4.32; P=0.04) among low consumers, and a 0.4 mg/dL decrease (95% CI -1.32 to 0.52; P=0.4) among high consumers. Weight category did not modify this association (P=0.45).

CONCLUSION

Low added sugars consumption is associated with increasing HDL cholesterol levels throughout adolescence.

Addition of short-term androgen deprivation therapy to dose-escalated radiation therapy improves failure-free survival for select men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Dose-escalated (DE) radiation therapy (RT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improve prostate cancer outcomes over standard-dose RT. The benefit of adding ADT to DE-RT for men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (IR-PrCa) is uncertain.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified 636 men treated for IR-PrCa with DE-RT (>75Gy). The adult comorbidity evaluation-27 index classifed comorbidity. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests compared failure-free survival (FFS) with and without ADT.

RESULTS

Forty-five percent received DE-RT and 55% DE-RT with ADT (median 6 months). On Cox proportional hazard regression that adjusted for comorbidity and tumor characteristics, ADT improved FFS (adjusted hazard ratio 0.36; P = 0.004). Recursive partitioning analysis of men without ADT classified Gleason 4 + 3 = 7 or ≥50% positive cores as unfavorable disease. The addition of ADT to DE-RT improved 5-year FFS for men with unfavorable disease (81.6% versus 92.9%; P = 0.009) but did not improve FFS for men with favorable disease (96.3% versus 97.4%; P = 0.874). When stratified by comorbidity, ADT improved FFS for men with unfavorable disease and no or mild comorbidity (P = 0.006) but did not improve FFS for men with unfavorable disease and moderate or severe comorbidity (P = 0.380).

CONCLUSION

The addition of ADT to DE-RT improves FFS for men with unfavorable IR-PrCa, especially those with no or minimal comorbidity.