Associations of the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with risk of type 2 diabetes in 127 594 people from 20 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes incidence is controversial. We aimed to evaluate this association in an international cohort with diverse glycaemic index and glycaemic load diets.

METHODS

The PURE study is a prospective cohort study of 127 594 adults aged 35-70 years from 20 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. The glycaemic index and the glycaemic load were estimated on the basis of the intake of seven categories of carbohydrate-containing foods. Participants were categorised into quintiles of glycaemic index and glycaemic load. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariable Cox Frailty models with random intercepts for study centre were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs).

FINDINGS

During a median follow-up of 11·8 years (IQR 9·0-13·0), 7326 (5·7%) incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. In multivariable adjusted analyses, a diet with a higher glycaemic index was significantly associated with a higher risk of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·15 [95% CI 1·03-1·29]). Participants in the highest quintile of the glycaemic load had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·21, 95% CI 1·06-1·37). The glycaemic index was more strongly associated with diabetes among individuals with a higher BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·23 [95% CI 1·08-1·41]) than those with a lower BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; 1·10 [0·87-1·39]; p interaction=0·030).

INTERPRETATION

Diets with a high glycaemic index and a high glycaemic load were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a multinational cohort spanning five continents. Our findings suggest that consuming low glycaemic index and low glycaemic load diets might prevent the development of type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.

Association of glycaemic index and glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of mega cohorts of more than 100 000 participants

BACKGROUND

There is debate over whether the glycaemic index of foods relates to chronic disease. We aimed to assess the associations between glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) and type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related cancers, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of large cohorts (≥100 000 participants) identified from the Richard Doll Consortium. We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus for cohorts that prospectively examined associations between GI or GL and chronic disease outcomes published from database inception to Aug 4, 2023. Full-article review and extraction of summary estimates data were conducted by three independent reviewers. Primary outcomes were incident type 2 diabetes, total cardiovascular disease (including mortality), diabetes-related cancers (ie, bladder, breast, colorectal, endometrial, hepatic, pancreatic, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), and all-cause mortality. We assessed comparisons between the lowest and highest quantiles of GI and GL, adjusting for dietary factors, and pooling their most adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates using a fixed-effects model. We also assessed associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023394689.

FINDINGS

From ten prospective large cohorts (six from the USA, one from Europe, two from Asia, and one international), we identified a total of 48 studies reporting associations between GI or GL and the outcomes of interest: 34 (71%) on various cancers, nine (19%) on cardiovascular disease, five (10%) on type 2 diabetes, and three (6%) on all-cause mortality. Consumption of high GI foods was associated with an increased incidence of type 2 diabetes (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·21-1·34]; p<0·0001), total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·11-1·19]; p<0·0001), diabetes-related cancer (1·05 [1·02-1·08]; p=0·0010), and all-cause mortality (1·08 [1·05-1·12]; p<0·0001). Similar associations were seen between high GL and diabetes (RR 1·15 [95% CI 1·09-1·21]; p<0·0001) and total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·10-1·20]; p<0·0001). Associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes were similar to those for low GI diets.

INTERPRETATION

Dietary recommendations to reduce GI and GL could have effects on health outcomes that are similar to outcomes of recommendations to increase intake of fibre and whole grain.

FUNDING

Banting and Best and the Karuna Foundation.

Potassium intake: the Cinderella electrolyte

Dietary guidelines recommend intake targets for some essential minerals, based on observational and experimental evidence relating mineral intake levels to health outcomes. For prevention of cardiovascular disease, reducing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake are the principal tools. While reducing sodium intake has received greatest public health priority, emerging evidence suggests that increasing potassium intake may be a more important target for cardiovascular prevention. Increased potassium intake reduces blood pressure and mitigates the hypertensive effects of excess sodium intake, and the recent large Phase III SSaSS trial reported that increasing potassium intake (and reducing sodium intake) in populations with low potassium intake and high sodium intake, through salt substitution (25% KCl, 75%NaCl), reduces the risk of stroke in patients at increased cardiovascular risk. As key sources of potassium intake include fruit, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, higher potassium intake may be associated with healthy dietary patterns. The current review makes the case that increasing potassium intake might represent a more advantageous dietary strategy for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Future research should focus on addressing the independent effect of potassium supplementation in populations with low or moderate potassium intake, and determine effective strategies to increase potassium intake from diet.

Individual- and supply-level macronutrient intakes are well correlated over a 50-year period (1961-2011) in 18 countries in Asia, North America, and Europe

Reliable information on dietary trends is essential. We compared individual-level dietary estimates for total energy, carbohydrate, fat, and protein intake over time with national supply data from the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply Model (186 paired estimates from 1961 to 2011, 18 countries). We hypothesized that supply data would overestimate individual measures and that the two measures would be weakly correlated. Individual- and supply-level estimates were compared using Spearman correlation coefficients and linear mixed-effect models were used to estimate the differences between measures. Overall, the correlations between individual- and supply-level measures were moderate for energy (rs = 0.34) and carbohydrate (rs = 0.39), strong for fat (rs = 0.85), and protein (rs = 0.69). Trends in total energy measured by individual-level surveys and total energy supply were positively correlated in 38.9% of countries, whereas trends in macronutrients aligned between estimates in most countries. Supply-level dietary data overestimated individual-level intakes, especially in higher income countries in Europe and in the United States. In the United States, supply-level data exceeded individual-level estimates by 26.3% to 29.9% for energy, carbohydrate, and fat, whereas protein estimates were similar between measures. In Europe, supply-level estimates overestimated individual-level intake by 19.9% for energy, 17.0% for carbohydrate, 13.7% for fat, and 7.7% for protein, whereas estimates for energy and macronutrients were similar in Asia. In Asia and lower income countries, our findings generally support the use of supply-level data in the absence of individual-level data, though this finding may be related to smaller sample size and differences in underlying national statistics that inform supply data.

Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries

AIMS

To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison).

CONCLUSION

A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

Changes in energy, macronutrient, and food consumption in 47 countries over the last 70 years (1950-2019): a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically examine trends in dietary energy, macronutrient, and food consumption in different geographic regions.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and organizations for studies and reports using individual-level dietary assessments from 1950 to 2019 (PROSPERO CRD42022302843) and quantified changes using multivariable linear mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

We identified 109 articles and reports from 47 countries, including Europe and Australasia (47% of studies), Asia (30%), Latin America (13%), the Middle East (6%), and North America (4%). In Southeast and East Asia, carbohydrate intake decreased, whereas fat consumption increased; the opposite pattern occurred in North America; and fat decreased while carbohydrate intake remained stable in Europe and Australasia. Consumption of carbohydrate and fat were stable in South Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, but data were limited in these regions. A greater increase in national gross domestic product over time was associated with decreased carbohydrate and increased fat and protein intake. Dietary saturated fatty acid intake decreased in Northern and Eastern Europe and was stable in other regions. Changes in food varied by region; East and Southeast Asia increased meat, fish, dairy, egg, fruit, and vegetable consumption and decreased intake of grains, roots and tubers, legumes, whereas North America decreased dairy and red meat but increased eggs, nuts, poultry, and vegetable oil intake. Intakes of fruits, nuts, legumes, and roots and tubers were below recommendations in most regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate regional variations in dietary trends and identify countries that would benefit from nutritional policies aimed at decreasing lower-quality carbohydrate foods and increasing consumption of fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, and dairy.

Global mean potassium intake: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Increasing potassium intake, especially in populations with low potassium intake and high sodium intake, has emerged as an important population-level intervention to reduce cardiovascular events. Current guideline recommendations, such as those made by the World Health Organisation, recommend a potassium intake of  > 3.5 g/day. We sought to determine summary estimates for mean potassium intake and sodium/potassium (Na/K) ratio in different regions of the world.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We identified 104 studies, that included 98 nationally representative surveys and 6 multi-national studies. To account for missingness and incomparability of data, a Bayesian hierarchical imputation model was applied to estimating summary estimates of mean dietary potassium intake (primary outcome) and sodium/potassium ratio.

RESULTS

Overall, 104 studies from 52 countries were included (n = 1,640,664). Mean global potassium intake was 2.25 g/day (57 mmol/day) (95% credible interval (CI) 2.05-2.44 g/day), with highest intakes in Eastern and Western Europe (mean intake 3.53g/day, 95% CI 3.05-4.01 g/day and 3.29 g/day, 95% CI 3.13-3.47 g/day, respectively) and lowest intakes in East Asia (mean intake 1.89 g/day; 95% CI 1.55-2.25 g/day). Approximately 31% (95% CI, 30-41%) of global population included have an estimated potassium intake  > 2.5 g/day, with 14% (95% CI 11-17%) above 3.5 g/day.

CONCLUSION

Global mean potassium intake (2.25 g/day) falls below current guideline recommended intake level of  > 3.5 g/day, with only 14% (95% CI 11-17%) of the global population achieving guideline-target mean intake. There was considerable regional variation, with lowest mean potassium intake reported in Asia, and highest intake in Eastern and Western Europe.

Ultra-processed foods and mortality: analysis from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

Higher intake of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has been associated with increased risk of CVD and mortality in observational studies from Western countries but data from non-Western countries are limited.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the association between consumption of UPFs and risk of mortality and major CVD in a cohort from multiple world regions.

DESIGN

This analysis includes 138,076 participants without a history of CVD between the ages of 35 and 70 y living on 5 continents, with a median follow-up of 10.2 y. We used country-specific validated food-frequency questionnaires to determine individuals' food intake. We classified foods and beverages based on the NOVA classification into UPFs. The primary outcome was total mortality (CV and non-CV mortality) and secondary outcomes were incident major cardiovascular events. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models and evaluated the association of UPFs with total mortality, CV mortality, non-CV mortality, and major CVD events.

RESULTS

In this study, 9227 deaths and 7934 major cardiovascular events were recorded during the follow-up period. We found a diet high in UPFs (≥2 servings/d compared with 0 intake) was associated with higher risk of mortality (HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.42; P-trend < 0.001), CV mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.41; P-trend = 0.04), and non-CV mortality (HR: 1.32; 95% CI 1.17, 1.50; P-trend < 0.001). We did not find a significant association between UPF intake and risk of major CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

A diet with a high intake of UPFs was associated with a higher risk of mortality in a diverse multinational study. Globally, limiting the consumption of UPFs should be encouraged.

The Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Iodine Deficiency in Canadian Adults

Iodine is a trace micronutrient that is critical for normal thyroid function and human health. Inadequate dietary intake is associated with cognitive impairment, infertility, growth retardation and iodine deficiency disorders in affected populations. Herein, we examined the prevalence of iodine deficiency in adults (median age of 61 years) based on the analysis of 24 h urine samples collected from 800 participants in four clinical sites across Canada in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study. Urinary iodide together with thiocyanate and nitrate were measured using a validated capillary electrophoresis assay. Protective/risk factors associated with iodine deficiency were identified using a binary logistic regression model, whereas daily urinary iodine concentration (24 h UIC, μg/L) and urinary iodine excretion (24 h UIE, μg/day) were compared using complementary statistical methods with covariate adjustments. Overall, our Canadian adult cohort had adequate iodine status as reflected by a median UIC of 111 μg/L with 11.9% of the population <50 μg/L categorized as having moderate to severe iodine deficiency. Iodine adequacy was also evident with a median 24 h UIE of 226 μg/day as a more robust metric of iodine status with an estimated average requirement (EAR) of 7.1% (< 95 μg/day) and a tolerable upper level (UL) of 1.8% (≥1100 μg/day) based on Canadian dietary reference intake values. Participants taking iodine supplements (OR = 0.18; p = 6.35 × 10−5), had greater 24 h urine volume (OR = 0.69; p = 4.07 × 10−4), excreted higher daily urinary sodium (OR = 0.71; p = 3.03 × 10−5), and/or were prescribed thyroxine (OR = 0.33; p = 1.20 × 10−2) had lower risk for iodine deficiency. Self-reported intake of dairy products was most strongly associated with iodine status (r = 0.24; p = 2.38 × 10−9) after excluding for iodine supplementation and T4 use. Participants residing in Quebec City (OR = 2.58; p = 1.74 × 10−4) and Vancouver (OR = 2.54; p = 3.57 × 10−4) were more susceptible to iodine deficiency than Hamilton or Ottawa. Also, greater exposure to abundant iodine uptake inhibitors from tobacco smoking and intake of specific goitrogenic foods corresponded to elevated urinary thiocyanate and nitrate, which were found for residents from Quebec City as compared to other clinical sites. Recent public health policies that advocate for salt restriction and lower dairy intake may inadvertently reduce iodine nutrition of Canadians, and further exacerbate regional variations in iodine deficiency risk.

DNA methylation changes in cord blood and the developmental origins of health and disease – a systematic review and replication study

Background

Environmental exposures in utero which modify DNA methylation may have a long-lasting impact on health and disease in offspring. We aimed to identify and replicate previously published genomic loci where DNA methylation changes are attributable to in utero exposures in the NutriGen birth cohort studies Alliance.

Methods

We reviewed the literature to identify differentially methylated sites of newborn DNA which are associated with the following five traits of interest maternal diabetes, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), diet during pregnancy, smoking, and gestational age. We then attempted to replicate these published associations in the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) and the South Asian birth cohort (START) cord blood epigenome-wide data.

Results

We screened 68 full-text articles and identified a total of 17 cord blood epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of the traits of interest. Out of the 290 CpG sites reported, 19 were identified in more than one study; all of them associated with maternal smoking. In CHILD and START EWAS, thousands of sites associated with gestational age were identified and maintained significance after correction for multiple testing. In CHILD, there was differential methylation observed for 8 of the published maternal smoking sites. No other traits tested (i.e., folate levels, gestational diabetes, birthweight) replicated in the CHILD or START cohorts.

Conclusions

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and gestational age are strongly associated with differential methylation in offspring cord blood, as assessed in the EWAS literature and our birth cohorts. There are a limited number of reported methylation sites associated in more than two independent studies related to pregnancy. Additional large studies of diverse populations with fine phenotyping are needed to produce robust epigenome-wide data in order to further elucidate the effect of intrauterine exposures on the infants’ methylome.

Development and Comparability of a Short Food-Frequency Questionnaire to Assess Diet in Prostate Cancer Patients: The Role of Androgen Deprivation Therapy in CArdiovascular Disease - A Longitudinal Prostate Cancer Study (RADICAL PC) Substudy

BACKGROUND

There are few concise tools to evaluate dietary habits in men with prostate cancer in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to develop a short food-frequency questionnaire (SFFQ) in a cohort of prostate cancer patients.

METHODS

A total of 130 men with prostate cancer completed the SFFQ and a validated comprehensive food-frequency questionnaire (CFFQ). Both questionnaires were administered at baseline and 6 mo later.

RESULTS

We found good correlation between the SFFQ and the CFFQ for seafood, dairy, egg, fruits, potatoes, grains, soft drinks, and processed meat (Spearman rank correlation >0.5). Moderate correlation was found for meat, sweets, vegetables, protein, and carbohydrates (Spearman rank correlation: 0.3-0.5). We found a weaker correlation for total fat measured by SFFQ and CFFQ (Spearman rank correlation <0.3). There was adequate reproducibility during the 6-mo follow-up among all food groups and nutrients, with the exception of meat.

CONCLUSIONS

Our SFFQ can be considered an appropriate tool to be used for measuring the habitual dietary intake of prostate cancer patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03127631.

Dietary Saturated Fats and Health: Are the U.S. Guidelines Evidence-Based?

The last decade has seen nearly 20 papers reviewing the totality of the data on saturated fats and cardiovascular outcomes, which, altogether, have demonstrated a lack of rigorous evidence to support continued recommendations either to limit the consumption of saturated fatty acids or to replace them with polyunsaturated fatty acids. These papers were unfortunately not considered by the process leading to the most recent U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans, the country's national nutrition policy, which recently reconfirmed its recommendation to limit saturated fats to 10% or less of total energy intake, based on insufficient and inconsistent evidence. Continuation of a cap on saturated fat intake also fails to consider the important effects of the food matrix and the overall dietary pattern in which saturated fatty acids are consumed.

Associations of unprocessed and processed meat intake with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 21 countries [Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study]: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dietary guidelines recommend limiting red meat intake because it is a major source of medium- and long-chain SFAs and is presumed to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Evidence of an association between unprocessed red meat intake and CVD is inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to assess the association of unprocessed red meat, poultry, and processed meat intake with mortality and major CVD.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study is a cohort of 134,297 individuals enrolled from 21 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Food intake was recorded using country-specific validated FFQs. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major CVD. HRs were estimated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts.

RESULTS

In the PURE study, during 9.5 y of follow-up, we recorded 7789 deaths and 6976 CVD events. Higher unprocessed red meat intake (≥250 g/wk vs. <50 g/wk) was not significantly associated with total mortality (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.02; P-trend = 0.14) or major CVD (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.11; P-trend = 0.72). Similarly, no association was observed between poultry intake and health outcomes. Higher intake of processed meat (≥150 g/wk vs. 0 g/wk) was associated with higher risk of total mortality (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.10; P-trend = 0.009) and major CVD (HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.98; P-trend = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large multinational prospective study, we did not find significant associations between unprocessed red meat and poultry intake and mortality or major CVD. Conversely, a higher intake of processed meat was associated with a higher risk of mortality and major CVD.

Association of ultra-processed food intake with risk of inflammatory bowel disease: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relation between intake of ultra-processed food and risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

21 low, middle, and high income countries across seven geographical regions (Europe and North America, South America, Africa, Middle East, south Asia, South East Asia, and China).

PARTICIPANTS

116 087 adults aged 35-70 years with at least one cycle of follow-up and complete baseline food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data (country specific validated FFQs were used to document baseline dietary intake). Participants were followed prospectively at least every three years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was development of IBD, including Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. Associations between ultra-processed food intake and risk of IBD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard multivariable models. Results are presented as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Participants were enrolled in the study between 2003 and 2016. During the median follow-up of 9.7 years (interquartile range 8.9-11.2 years), 467 participants developed incident IBD (90 with Crohn's disease and 377 with ulcerative colitis). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, higher intake of ultra-processed food was associated with a higher risk of incident IBD (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.72 for ≥5 servings/day and 1.67, 1.18 to 2.37 for 1-4 servings/day compared with <1 serving/day, P=0.006 for trend). Different subgroups of ultra-processed food, including soft drinks, refined sweetened foods, salty snacks, and processed meat, each were associated with higher hazard ratios for IBD. Results were consistent for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis with low heterogeneity. Intakes of white meat, red meat, dairy, starch, and fruit, vegetables, and legumes were not associated with incident IBD.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of ultra-processed food was positively associated with risk of IBD. Further studies are needed to identify the contributory factors within ultra-processed foods.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03225586.

Salt and cardiovascular disease: insufficient evidence to recommend low sodium intake

Several blood pressure guidelines recommend low sodium intake (<2.3 g/day, 100 mmol, 5.8 g/day of salt) for the entire population, on the premise that reductions in sodium intake, irrespective of the levels, will lower blood pressure, and, in turn, reduce cardiovascular disease occurrence. These guidelines have been developed without effective interventions to achieve sustained low sodium intake in free-living individuals, without a feasible method to estimate sodium intake reliably in individuals, and without high-quality evidence that low sodium intake reduces cardiovascular events (compared with moderate intake). In this review, we examine whether the recommendation for low sodium intake, reached by current guideline panels, is supported by robust evidence. Our review provides a counterpoint to the current recommendation for low sodium intake and suggests that a specific low sodium intake target (e.g. <2.3 g/day) for individuals may be unfeasible, of uncertain effect on other dietary factors and of unproven effectiveness in reducing cardiovascular disease. We contend that current evidence, despite methodological limitations, suggests that most of the world's population consume a moderate range of dietary sodium (2.3-4.6g/day; 1-2 teaspoons of salt) that is not associated with increased cardiovascular risk, and that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases when sodium intakes exceed 5 g/day. While current evidence has limitations, and there are differences of opinion in interpretation of existing evidence, it is reasonable, based upon observational studies, to suggest a population-level mean target of <5 g/day in populations with mean sodium intake of >5 g/day, while awaiting the results of large randomized controlled trials of sodium reduction on incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality.

Associations of Fish Consumption With Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality Among Individuals With or Without Vascular Disease From 58 Countries

IMPORTANCE

Cohort studies report inconsistent associations between fish consumption, a major source of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids, and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Whether the associations vary between those with and those without vascular disease is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the associations of fish consumption with risk of CVD or of mortality differ between individuals with and individuals without vascular disease.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This pooled analysis of individual participant data involved 191 558 individuals from 4 cohort studies-147 645 individuals (139 827 without CVD and 7818 with CVD) from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and 43 413 patients with vascular disease in 3 prospective studies from 40 countries. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated by multilevel Cox regression separately within each study and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. This analysis was conducted from January to June 2020.

EXPOSURES

Fish consumption was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. In 1 of the cohorts with vascular disease, a separate qualitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess intake of individual types of fish.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality and major CVD events (including myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, or sudden death).

RESULTS

Overall, 191 558 participants with a mean (SD) age of 54.1 (8.0) years (91 666 [47.9%] male) were included in the present analysis. During 9.1 years of follow-up in PURE, compared with little or no fish intake (≤50 g/mo), an intake of 350 g/wk or more was not associated with risk of major CVD (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.86-1.04) or total mortality (HR, 0.96; 0.88-1.05). By contrast, in the 3 cohorts of patients with vascular disease, the HR for risk of major CVD (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73-0.96) and total mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.91) was lowest with intakes of at least 175 g/wk (or approximately 2 servings/wk) compared with 50 g/mo or lower, with no further apparent decrease in HR with consumption of 350 g/wk or higher. Fish with higher amounts of ω-3 fatty acids were strongly associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97 per 5-g increment of intake), whereas other fish were neutral (collected in 1 cohort of patients with vascular disease). The association between fish intake and each outcome varied by CVD status, with a lower risk found among patients with vascular disease but not in general populations (for major CVD, I2 = 82.6 [P = .02]; for death, I2 = 90.8 [P = .001]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Findings of this pooled analysis of 4 cohort studies indicated that a minimal fish intake of 175 g (approximately 2 servings) weekly is associated with lower risk of major CVD and mortality among patients with prior CVD but not in general populations. The consumption of fish (especially oily fish) should be evaluated in randomized trials of clinical outcomes among people with vascular disease.

Glycemic Index, Glycemic Load, and Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Most data regarding the association between the glycemic index and cardiovascular disease come from high-income Western populations, with little information from non-Western countries with low or middle incomes. To fill this gap, data are needed from a large, geographically diverse population.

METHODS

This analysis includes 137,851 participants between the ages of 35 and 70 years living on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.5 years. We used country-specific food-frequency questionnaires to determine dietary intake and estimated the glycemic index and glycemic load on the basis of the consumption of seven categories of carbohydrate foods. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models. The primary outcome was a composite of a major cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) or death from any cause.

RESULTS

In the study population, 8780 deaths and 8252 major cardiovascular events occurred during the follow-up period. After performing extensive adjustments comparing the lowest and highest glycemic-index quintiles, we found that a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of a major cardiovascular event or death, both among participants with preexisting cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 1.82) and among those without such disease (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.34). Among the components of the primary outcome, a high glycemic index was also associated with an increased risk of death from cardiovascular causes. The results with respect to glycemic load were similar to the findings regarding the glycemic index among the participants with cardiovascular disease at baseline, but the association was not significant among those without preexisting cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Associations of estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion with mortality and cardiovascular events in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations of sodium excretion with blood pressure, mortality and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population.

METHODS

We studied 39 366 individuals aged 35-70 years from 115 urban and rural communities in 12 centers across mainland China. Trained research staff conducted face-to-face interview to record baseline information of all participants based on questionnaires, and collected their morning fasting urine samples to estimate 24-h sodium excretion (24hUNaE). Multivariable frailty Cox regression accounting for clustering by centre was performed to examine the association between estimated 24hUNaE and the primary composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events in a Chinese population.

RESULTS

Mean 24hUNaE was 5.68 (SD 1.69) g/day. After a median follow-up of 8.8 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3080 (7.8%) participants, of which 1426 (3.5%) died and 2192 (5.4%) suffered from cardiovascular events. 24hUNaE was positively associated with increased SBP and DBP. Using the 24hUNaE level of 4-4.99 g/day as the reference group, a 24hUNaE of either lower (<3 g/day) or higher (≥7 g/day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome with a hazard ratio of 1.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.49) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.30), respectively. A similar trend was observed between 24hUNaE level and risk of death or major cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSION

These findings support a positive association between estimated urinary sodium excretion and blood pressure, and a possible J-shaped pattern of association between sodium excretion and clinical outcomes, with the lowest risk in participants with sodium excretion between 3 and 5 g/day.

White Rice Intake and Incident Diabetes: A Study of 132,373 Participants in 21 Countries

OBJECTIVE

Previous prospective studies on the association of white rice intake with incident diabetes have shown contradictory results but were conducted in single countries and predominantly in Asia. We report on the association of white rice with risk of diabetes in the multinational Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data on 132,373 individuals aged 35-70 years from 21 countries were analyzed. White rice consumption (cooked) was categorized as <150, ≥150 to <300, ≥300 to <450, and ≥450 g/day, based on one cup of cooked rice = 150 g. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a multivariable Cox frailty model.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 9.5 years, 6,129 individuals without baseline diabetes developed incident diabetes. In the overall cohort, higher intake of white rice (≥450 g/day compared with <150 g/day) was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.40; P for trend = 0.003). However, the highest risk was seen in South Asia (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13-2.30; P for trend = 0.02), followed by other regions of the world (which included South East Asia, Middle East, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa) (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.08-1.86; P for trend = 0.01), while in China there was no significant association (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.77-1.40; P for trend = 0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher consumption of white rice is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes with the strongest association being observed in South Asia, while in other regions, a modest, nonsignificant association was seen.

Association of nut intake with risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 16 countries from 5 continents: analysis from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

BACKGROUND

The association of nuts with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated mostly in Europe, the USA, and East Asia, with few data available from other regions of the world or from low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of nuts with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is a large multinational prospective cohort study of adults aged 35-70 y from 16 low-, middle-, and high-income countries on 5 continents. Nut intake (tree nuts and ground nuts) was measured at the baseline visit, using country-specific validated FFQs. The primary outcome was a composite of mortality or major cardiovascular event [nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or heart failure].

RESULTS

We followed 124,329 participants (age = 50.7 y, SD = 10.2; 41.5% male) for a median of 9.5 y. We recorded 10,928 composite events [deaths (n = 8,662) or major cardiovascular events (n = 5,979)]. Higher nut intake (>120 g per wk compared with <30 g per mo) was associated with a lower risk of the primary composite outcome of mortality or major cardiovascular event [multivariate HR (mvHR): 0.88; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0048]. Significant reductions in total (mvHR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.87; P-trend <0.0001), cardiovascular (mvHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.92; P-trend = 0.048), and noncardiovascular mortality (mvHR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0046) with a trend to reduced cancer mortality (mvHR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.00; P-trend = 0.081) were observed. No significant associations of nuts were seen with major CVD (mvHR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.02; P-trend = 0.14), stroke (mvHR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.14; P-trend = 0.76), or MI (mvHR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.04; P-trend = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher nut intake was associated with lower mortality risk from both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Association of egg intake with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 177,000 people in 50 countries

BACKGROUND

Eggs are a rich source of essential nutrients, but they are also a source of dietary cholesterol. Therefore, some guidelines recommend limiting egg consumption. However, there is contradictory evidence on the impact of eggs on diseases, largely based on studies conducted in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to assess the association of egg consumption with blood lipids, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality in large global studies involving populations from low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

METHODS

We studied 146,011 individuals from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Egg consumption was recorded using country-specific validated FFQs. We also studied 31,544 patients with vascular disease in 2 multinational prospective studies: ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global End Point Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomized Assessment Study in ACEI Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease). We calculated HRs using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering by study center separately within each study.

RESULTS

In the PURE study, we recorded 14,700 composite events (8932 deaths and 8477 CVD events). In the PURE study, after excluding those with history of CVD, higher intake of egg (≥7 egg/wk compared with <1 egg/wk intake) was not significantly associated with blood lipids, composite outcome (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.04; P-trend = 0.74), total mortality (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.15; P-trend = 0.38), or major CVD (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.01; P-trend = 0.20). Similar results were observed in ONTARGET/TRANSCEND studies for composite outcome (HR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.25; P-trend = 0.09), total mortality (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.62, 1.24; P-trend = 0.55), and major CVD (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.73, 1.29; P-trend = 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

In 3 large international prospective studies including ∼177,000 individuals, 12,701 deaths, and 13,658 CVD events from 50 countries in 6 continents, we did not find significant associations between egg intake and blood lipids, mortality, or major CVD events. The ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00153101. The PURE trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03225586.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries

OBJECTIVE

Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes).

RESULTS

In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155 722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels.

METHODS

In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs.

INTERPRETATION

Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Joint association of urinary sodium and potassium excretion with cardiovascular events and mortality: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the joint association of sodium and potassium urinary excretion (as surrogate measures of intake) with cardiovascular events and mortality, in the context of current World Health Organization recommendations for daily intake (<2.0 g sodium, >3.5 g potassium) in adults.

DESIGN

International prospective cohort study.

SETTING

18 high, middle, and low income countries, sampled from urban and rural communities.

PARTICIPANTS

103 570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day).

RESULTS

Mean estimated sodium and potassium urinary excretion were 4.93 g/day and 2.12 g/day, respectively. After a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 7884 (6.1%) participants had died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Increasing urinary sodium excretion was positively associated with increasing potassium excretion (unadjusted r=0.34), and only 0.002% had a concomitant urinary excretion of <2.0 g/day of sodium and >3.5 g/day of potassium. A J-shaped association was observed of sodium excretion and inverse association of potassium excretion with death and cardiovascular events. For joint sodium and potassium excretion categories, the lowest risk of death and cardiovascular events occurred in the group with moderate sodium excretion (3-5 g/day) and higher potassium excretion (21.9% of cohort). Compared with this reference group, the combinations of low potassium with low sodium excretion (hazard ratio 1.23, 1.11 to 1.37; 7.4% of cohort) and low potassium with high sodium excretion (1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; 13.8% of cohort) were associated with the highest risk, followed by low sodium excretion (1.19, 1.02 to 1.38; 3.3% of cohort) and high sodium excretion (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18; 29.6% of cohort) among those with potassium excretion greater than the median. Higher potassium excretion attenuated the increased cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium excretion (P for interaction=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the simultaneous target of low sodium intake (<2 g/day) with high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) is extremely uncommon. Combined moderate sodium intake (3-5 g/day) with high potassium intake is associated with the lowest risk of mortality and cardiovascular events.

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; p_trend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; p_trend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; p_trend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; p_trend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; p_trend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; p_trend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; p_trend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; p_trend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; p_trend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; p_trend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; p_trend=0·4113).

INTERPRETATION

Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Urinary sodium excretion, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: a community-level prospective epidemiological cohort study

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends that populations consume less than 2 g/day sodium as a preventive measure against cardiovascular disease, but this target has not been achieved in any country. This recommendation is primarily based on individual-level data from short-term trials of blood pressure (BP) without data relating low sodium intake to reduced cardiovascular events from randomised trials or observational studies. We investigated the associations between community-level mean sodium and potassium intake, cardiovascular disease, and mortality.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is ongoing in 21 countries. Here we report an analysis done in 18 countries with data on clinical outcomes. Eligible participants were adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular disease, sampled from the general population. We used morning fasting urine to estimate 24 h sodium and potassium excretion as a surrogate for intake. We assessed community-level associations between sodium and potassium intake and BP in 369 communities (all >50 participants) and cardiovascular disease and mortality in 255 communities (all >100 participants), and used individual-level data to adjust for known confounders.

FINDINGS

95 767 participants in 369 communities were assessed for BP and 82 544 in 255 communities for cardiovascular outcomes with follow-up for a median of 8·1 years. 82 (80%) of 103 communities in China had a mean sodium intake greater than 5 g/day, whereas in other countries 224 (84%) of 266 communities had a mean intake of 3-5 g/day. Overall, mean systolic BP increased by 2·86 mm Hg per 1 g increase in mean sodium intake, but positive associations were only seen among the communities in the highest tertile of sodium intake (p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). The association between mean sodium intake and major cardiovascular events showed significant deviations from linearity (p=0·043) due to a significant inverse association in the lowest tertile of sodium intake (lowest tertile <4·43 g/day, mean intake 4·04 g/day, range 3·42-4·43; change -1·00 events per 1000 years, 95% CI -2·00 to -0·01, p=0·0497), no association in the middle tertile (middle tertile 4·43-5·08 g/day, mean intake 4·70 g/day, 4·44-5.05; change 0·24 events per 1000 years, -2·12 to 2·61, p=0·8391), and a positive but non-significant association in the highest tertile (highest tertile >5·08 g/day, mean intake 5·75 g/day, >5·08-7·49; change 0·37 events per 1000 years, -0·03 to 0·78, p=0·0712). A strong association was seen with stroke in China (mean sodium intake 5·58 g/day, 0·42 events per 1000 years, 95% CI 0·16 to 0·67, p=0·0020) compared with in other countries (4·49 g/day, -0·26 events, -0·46 to -0·06, p=0·0124; p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). All major cardiovascular outcomes decreased with increasing potassium intake in all countries.

INTERPRETATION

Sodium intake was associated with cardiovascular disease and strokes only in communities where mean intake was greater than 5 g/day. A strategy of sodium reduction in these communities and countries but not in others might be appropriate.

FUNDING

Population Health Research Institute, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian Institutes of Health Canada Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, and European Research Council.

Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between macronutrients and cardiovascular disease and mortality is controversial. Most available data are from European and North American populations where nutrition excess is more likely, so their applicability to other populations is unclear.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.

FINDINGS

During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], p_trend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], p_trend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], p_trend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], p_trend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], p_trend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], p_trend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality.

INTERPRETATION

High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Fruit, vegetable, and legume intake, and cardiovascular disease and deaths in 18 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between intake of fruits, vegetables, and legumes with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated extensively in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China, but little or no data are available from the Middle East, South America, Africa, or south Asia.

METHODS

We did a prospective cohort study (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology [PURE] in 135 335 individuals aged 35 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease from 613 communities in 18 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in seven geographical regions: North America and Europe, South America, the Middle East, south Asia, China, southeast Asia, and Africa. We documented their diet using country-specific food frequency questionnaires at baseline. Standardised questionnaires were used to collect information about demographic factors, socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, and alcohol intake), health history and medication use, and family history of cardiovascular disease. The follow-up period varied based on the date when recruitment began at each site or country. The main clinical outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (defined as death from cardiovascular causes and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure), fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal strokes, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality. Cox frailty models with random effects were used to assess associations between fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption with risk of cardiovascular disease events and mortality.

FINDINGS

Participants were enrolled into the study between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013. For the current analysis, we included all unrefuted outcome events in the PURE study database through March 31, 2017. Overall, combined mean fruit, vegetable and legume intake was 3·91 (SD 2·77) servings per day. During a median 7·4 years (5·5-9·3) of follow-up, 4784 major cardiovascular disease events, 1649 cardiovascular deaths, and 5796 total deaths were documented. Higher total fruit, vegetable, and legume intake was inversely associated with major cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in the models adjusted for age, sex, and centre (random effect). The estimates were substantially attenuated in the multivariable adjusted models for major cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·74-1·10, p_trend=0·1301), myocardial infarction (0·99, 0·74-1·31; p_trend=0·2033), stroke (0·92, 0·67-1·25; p_trend=0·7092), cardiovascular mortality (0·73, 0·53-1·02; p_trend=0·0568), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·84, 0·68-1·04; p_trend =0·0038), and total mortality (0·81, 0·68-0·96; p_trend<0·0001). The HR for total mortality was lowest for three to four servings per day (0·78, 95% CI 0·69-0·88) compared with the reference group, with no further apparent decrease in HR with higher consumption. When examined separately, fruit intake was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and total mortality, while legume intake was inversely associated with non-cardiovascular death and total mortality (in fully adjusted models). For vegetables, raw vegetable intake was strongly associated with a lower risk of total mortality, whereas cooked vegetable intake showed a modest benefit against mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Higher fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption was associated with a lower risk of non-cardiovascular, and total mortality. Benefits appear to be maximum for both non-cardiovascular mortality and total mortality at three to four servings per day (equivalent to 375-500 g/day).

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Association of dietary nutrients with blood lipids and blood pressure in 18 countries: a cross-sectional analysis from the PURE study

BACKGROUND

The relation between dietary nutrients and cardiovascular disease risk markers in many regions worldwide is unknown. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary nutrients on blood lipids and blood pressure, two of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries.

METHODS

We studied 125 287 participants from 18 countries in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Habitual food intake was measured with validated food frequency questionnaires. We assessed the associations between nutrients (total fats, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, carbohydrates, protein, and dietary cholesterol) and cardiovascular disease risk markers using multilevel modelling. The effect of isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids with other fats and carbohydrates was determined overall and by levels of intakes by use of nutrient density models. We did simulation modelling in which we assumed that the effects of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease events was solely related to their association through an individual risk marker, and then compared these simulated risk marker-based estimates with directly observed associations of saturated fatty acids with cardiovascular disease events.

FINDINGS

Participants were enrolled into the study from Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2013. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with higher concentrations of total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, but also with higher HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and lower triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ratio of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) to ApoA1 (all p_trend<0·0001). Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and ApoB, but also with lower HDL cholesterol and ApoA1, and higher triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio (all p_trend<0·0001, apart from ApoB [p_trend=0·0014]). Higher intakes of total fat, saturated fatty acids, and carbohydrates were associated with higher blood pressure, whereas higher protein intake was associated with lower blood pressure. Replacement of saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates was associated with the most adverse effects on lipids, whereas replacement of saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats improved some risk markers (LDL cholesterol and blood pressure), but seemed to worsen others (HDL cholesterol and triglycerides). The observed associations between saturated fatty acids and cardiovascular disease events were approximated by the simulated associations mediated through the effects on the ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio, but not with other lipid markers including LDL cholesterol.

INTERPRETATION

Our data are at odds with current recommendations to reduce total fat and saturated fats. Reducing saturated fatty acid intake and replacing it with carbohydrate has an adverse effect on blood lipids. Substituting saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats might improve some risk markers, but might worsen others. Simulations suggest that ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio probably provides the best overall indication of the effect of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease risk among the markers tested. Focusing on a single lipid marker such as LDL cholesterol alone does not capture the net clinical effects of nutrients on cardiovascular risk.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Reducing the Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease, Part 1: The Epidemiology and Risk Factors

Current global health policy goals include a 25% reduction in premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 2025. In this 2-part review, we provide an overview of the current epidemiological data on cardiovascular diseases (CVD), its risk factors, and describe strategies aimed at reducing its burden. In part 1, we examine the global epidemiology of cardiac conditions that have the greatest impact on CVD mortality; the predominant risk factors; and the impact of upstream, societal health determinants (eg, environmental factors, health policy, and health systems) on CVD. Although age-standardized mortality from CVD has decreased in many regions of the world, the absolute number of deaths continues to increase, with the majority now occurring in middle- and low-income countries. It is evident that multiple factors are causally related to CVD, including traditional individual level risk factors (mainly tobacco use, lipids, and elevated blood pressure) and societal level health determinants (eg, health systems, health policies, and barriers to CVD prevention and care). Both individual and societal risk factors vary considerably between different regions of the world and economic settings. However, reliable data to estimate CVD burden are lacking in many regions of the world, which hampers the establishment of nationwide prevention and management strategies. A 25% reduction in premature CVD mortality globally is feasible but will require better implementation of evidence-based policies (particularly tobacco control) and integrated health systems strategies that improve CVD prevention and management. In addition, there is a need for better health information to monitor progress and guide health policy decisions.

Availability, affordability, and consumption of fruits and vegetables in 18 countries across income levels: findings from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

BACKGROUND

Several international guidelines recommend the consumption of two servings of fruits and three servings of vegetables per day, but their intake is thought to be low worldwide. We aimed to determine the extent to which such low intake is related to availability and affordability.

METHODS

We assessed fruit and vegetable consumption using data from country-specific, validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, which enrolled participants from communities in 18 countries between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2013. We documented household income data from participants in these communities; we also recorded the diversity and non-sale prices of fruits and vegetables from grocery stores and market places between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2013. We determined the cost of fruits and vegetables relative to income per household member. Linear random effects models, adjusting for the clustering of households within communities, were used to assess mean fruit and vegetable intake by their relative cost.

FINDINGS

Of 143 305 participants who reported plausible energy intake in the food frequency questionnaire, mean fruit and vegetable intake was 3·76 servings (95% CI 3·66-3·86) per day. Mean daily consumption was 2·14 servings (1·93-2·36) in low-income countries (LICs), 3·17 servings (2·99-3·35) in lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), 4·31 servings (4·09-4·53) in upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), and 5·42 servings (5·13-5·71) in high-income countries (HICs). In 130 402 participants who had household income data available, the cost of two servings of fruits and three servings of vegetables per day per individual accounted for 51·97% (95% CI 46·06-57·88) of household income in LICs, 18·10% (14·53-21·68) in LMICs, 15·87% (11·51-20·23) in UMICs, and 1·85% (-3·90 to 7·59) in HICs (ptrend=0·0001). In all regions, a higher percentage of income to meet the guidelines was required in rural areas than in urban areas (p<0·0001 for each pairwise comparison). Fruit and vegetable consumption among individuals decreased as the relative cost increased (ptrend=0·00040).

INTERPRETATION

The consumption of fruit and vegetables is low worldwide, particularly in LICs, and this is associated with low affordability. Policies worldwide should enhance the availability and affordability of fruits and vegetables.

FUNDING

Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.

Associations of urinary sodium excretion with cardiovascular events in individuals with and without hypertension: a pooled analysis of data from four studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies reported a U-shaped association between urinary sodium excretion and cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Whether these associations vary between those individuals with and without hypertension is uncertain. We aimed to explore whether the association between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality is modified by hypertension status.

METHODS

In this pooled analysis, we studied 133,118 individuals (63,559 with hypertension and 69,559 without hypertension), median age of 55 years (IQR 45-63), from 49 countries in four large prospective studies and estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion (as group-level measure of intake). We related this to the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular disease events over a median of 4.2 years (IQR 3.0-5.0) and blood pressure.

FINDINGS

Increased sodium intake was associated with greater increases in systolic blood pressure in individuals with hypertension (2.08 mm Hg change per g sodium increase) compared with individuals without hypertension (1.22 mm Hg change per g; pinteraction<0.0001). In those individuals with hypertension (6835 events), sodium excretion of 7 g/day or more (7060 [11%] of population with hypertension: hazard ratio [HR] 1.23 [95% CI 1.11-1.37]; p<0.0001) and less than 3 g/day (7006 [11%] of population with hypertension: 1.34 [1.23-1.47]; p<0.0001) were both associated with increased risk compared with sodium excretion of 4-5 g/day (reference 25% of the population with hypertension). In those individuals without hypertension (3021 events), compared with 4-5 g/day (18,508 [27%] of the population without hypertension), higher sodium excretion was not associated with risk of the primary composite outcome (≥ 7 g/day in 6271 [9%] of the population without hypertension; HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.76-1.08]; p=0.2547), whereas an excretion of less than 3 g/day was associated with a significantly increased risk (7547 [11%] of the population without hypertension; HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.10-1.45]; p=0.0009).

INTERPRETATION

Compared with moderate sodium intake, high sodium intake is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive populations (no association in normotensive population), while the association of low sodium intake with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death is observed in those with or without hypertension. These data suggest that lowering sodium intake is best targeted at populations with hypertension who consume high sodium diets.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Association of Urinary Sodium Excretion With Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Clinical Events in 17,033 Latin Americans

BACKGROUND

Information on actual sodium intake and its relationships with blood pressure (BP) and clinical events in South America is limited. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the relationship of sodium intake with BP, cardiovascular (CV) events, and mortality in South America.

METHODS

We studied 17,033 individuals, aged 35-70 years, from 4 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia). Measures of sodium excretion, estimated from morning fasting urine, were used as a surrogate for daily sodium intake. We measured BP and monitored the composite outcome of death and major CV events.

RESULTS

Overall mean sodium excretion was 4.70±1.43g/day. A positive, nonuniform association between sodium and BP was detected, with a significant steeper slope for the relationship at higher sodium excretion levels (P < 0.001 for interaction). With a median follow-up of 4.7 years, the primary composite outcome (all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) occurred in 568 participants (3.4%). Compared with sodium excretion of 5-6g/day (reference group), participants who excreted >7g/day had increased risks of the primary outcome (odds ratio (OR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24 to 2.40; P < 0.001), as well as death from any cause (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.83; P = 0.003) and major CV disease (OR 1.77; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.81; P = 0.014). Sodium excretion of <3g/day was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of the primary outcome (OR 1.20; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.65; P = 0.26) and death from any cause (OR 1.25; 95% CI 0.81 to 1.93; P = 0.29), and a significant increased risk of major CV disease (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.24; P = 0.048), as compared to the reference group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a positive, nonuniform association between estimated urinary sodium excretion and BP, and a possible J-shaped pattern of association between sodium excretion over the entire range and clinical outcomes.