District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Sensitivity and specificity of human point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) test in African livestock for rapid diagnosis of schistosomiasis: A Bayesian latent class analysis

Schistosomiasis is a major neglected tropical disease (NTD) affecting both humans and animals. The morbidity and mortality inflicted upon livestock in the Afrotropical region has been largely overlooked, in part due to a lack of validated sensitive and specific tests, which do not require specialist training or equipment to deliver and interpret. As stressed within the recent WHO NTD 2021-2030 Roadmap and Revised Guideline for schistosomiasis, inexpensive, non-invasive, and sensitive diagnostic tests for livestock-use would also facilitate both prevalence mapping and appropriate intervention programmes. The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the currently available point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA), designed for Schistosoma mansoni detection in humans, for the detection of intestinal livestock schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma bovis and Schistosoma curassoni. POC-CCA, together with the circulating anodic antigen (CAA) test, miracidial hatching technique (MHT) and organ and mesentery inspection (for animals from abattoirs only), were applied to samples collected from 195 animals (56 cattle and 139 small ruminants (goats and sheep) from abattoirs and living populations) from Senegal. POC-CCA sensitivity was greater in the S. curassoni-dominated Barkedji livestock, both for cattle (median 81%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 55%-98%) and small ruminants (49%; CrI: 29%-87%), than in S. bovis-dominated Richard Toll ruminants (cattle: 62%; CrI: 41%-84%; small ruminants: 12%, CrI: 1%-37%). Overall, sensitivity was greater in cattle than in small ruminants. Small ruminants POC-CCA specificity was similar in both locations (91%; CrI: 77%-99%), whilst cattle POC-CCA specificity could not be assessed owing to the low number of uninfected cattle surveyed. Our results indicate that, whilst the current POC-CCA does represent a potential diagnostic tool for cattle and possibly for predominantly S. curassoni-infected livestock, future work is needed to develop parasite- and/or livestock-specific affordable and field-applicable diagnostic tests to enable determination of the true extent of livestock schistosomiasis.

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Background

In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.

Methods

For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.

Findings

We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Modelling livestock test-and-treat: A novel One Health strategy to control schistosomiasis and mitigate drug resistance

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease, is a widespread chronic helminthiasis reported in 78 countries, predominantly those within sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Latin America, Asia, and most recently, even Europe. Species of the causative blood fluke infect not only humans but also animals, and hybrids between previously assumed human-specific and animal-specific schistosomes are being increasingly reported. Existing control programs across Africa focus on humans and rely heavily on mass drug administration of praziquantel, the sole drug available against schistosomiasis. Praziquantel is safe and highly efficacious but could become ineffective if resistance emerges. To reach the revised World Health Organization goal of elimination of schistosomiasis as a public health problem, and interruption of transmission within selected regions, by 2030, new consideration of the role of animal reservoirs in human transmission in general, and whether to also treat livestock with praziquantel in particular, has been raised. However, whilst there are no dedicated control programs targeting animals outside of Asia, there are emerging reports of the use and misuse of praziquantel in livestock across Africa. Therefore, to effectively treat livestock in Africa and to help mitigate against the potential evolution of praziquantel resistance, structured control strategies are required. Here, using a transmission modelling approach, we evaluate the potential effectiveness of a theoretical test-and-treat (TnT) strategy to control bovine schistosomiasis using a currently available point-of-care diagnostic test (developed for human use) to detect circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA). We show that implementing TnT at herd-level from 2022 to 2030 could be highly effective in suppressing infection in cattle and even, in lower prevalence settings, reaching nominal ‘elimination’ targets. We highlight the importance of enhancing the specificity of POC-CCA for use in livestock to avoid unnecessary treatments and discuss the outstanding challenges associated with implementing TnT as part of a holistic One Health approach to tackling human and animal schistosomiasis.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population

The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48-142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population. In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave. Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots

Background

Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one).

Methods

Data on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitted exponential distribution for the year-by-year distribution of TF prevalence. The probability of a district being a transmission-hotspot is extrapolated from the residuals of the regression.

Results

Forecasts suggest that with current interventions, 96.5% of surveyed districts will have TF prevalence among children aged 1–9 years <5% by 2030 (95% CI: 86.6%–100.0%). Districts with TF prevalence < 20% appear unlikely to be transmission-hotspots. However, a district having TF prevalence of over 28% in 2016–2019 corresponds to at least 50% probability of being a transmission-hotspot.

Conclusions

Sustainable control of trachoma appears achievable. However there are transmission-hotspots that are not responding to annual mass drug administration of azithromycin and require enhanced treatment in order to reach local control.

Multihost Transmission of Schistosoma mansoni in Senegal, 2015-2018

In West Africa, Schistosoma spp. are capable of infecting multiple definitive hosts, a lifecycle feature that may complicate schistosomiasis control. We characterized the evolutionary relationships among multiple Schistosoma mansoni isolates collected from snails (intermediate hosts), humans (definitive hosts), and rodents (definitive hosts) in Senegal. On a local scale, diagnosis of S. mansoni infection ranged 3.8%-44.8% in school-aged children, 1.7%-52.6% in Mastomys huberti mice, and 1.8%-7.1% in Biomphalaria pfeifferi snails. Our phylogenetic framework confirmed the presence of multiple S. mansoni lineages that could infect both humans and rodents; divergence times of these lineages varied (0.13-0.02 million years ago). We propose that extensive movement of persons across West Africa might have contributed to the establishment of these various multihost S. mansoni clades. High S. mansoni prevalence in rodents at transmission sites frequented by humans further highlights the implications that alternative hosts could have on future public health interventions.

Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in eliminating trachoma as a public health problem

Background

Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts.

Methods

We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma.

Results

We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is <1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is >1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease.

Conclusions

If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem.

METHODS

Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets.

CONCLUSION

Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem

Background:

Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts.

Methods:

We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma.

Results:

We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease.

Conclusion:

If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Prevalence and distribution of schistosomiasis in human, livestock, and snail populations in northern Senegal: a One Health epidemiological study of a multi-host system

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global medical and veterinary importance. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem and interrupt transmission gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridisation in sub-Saharan Africa have been largely overlooked. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, distribution, and multi-host, multiparasite transmission cycle of Haematobium group schistosomiasis in Senegal, West Africa.

METHODS

In this epidemiological study, we carried out systematic surveys in definitive hosts (humans, cattle, sheep, and goats) and snail intermediate hosts, in 2016-18, in two areas of Northern Senegal: Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, where transmission is perennial; and Barkedji and Linguère, where transmission is seasonal. The occurrence and distribution of Schistosoma species and hybrids were assessed by molecular analyses of parasitological specimens obtained from the different hosts. Children in the study villages aged 5-17 years and enrolled in school were selected from school registers. Adults (aged 18-78 years) were self-selecting volunteers. Livestock from the study villages in both areas were also randomly sampled, as were post-mortem samples from local abattoirs. Additionally, five malacological surveys of snail intermediate hosts were carried out at each site in open water sources used by the communities and their animals.

FINDINGS

In May to August, 2016, we surveyed 375 children and 20 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 201 children and 107 adults from Barkedji and Linguère; in October, 2017, to January, 2018, we surveyed 386 children and 88 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 323 children and 85 adults from Barkedji and Linguère. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 87% (95% CI 80-95) in 2016 and 88% (82-95) in 2017-18. An estimated 63% (in 2016) and 72% (in 2017-18) of infected children were shedding Schistosoma haematobium-Schistosoma bovis hybrids. In adults in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 79% (52-97) in 2016 and 41% (30-54) in 2017-18, with 88% of infected samples containing S haematobium-S bovis hybrids. In Barkedji and Linguère the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 30% (23-38) in 2016 and 42% (35-49) in 2017-18, with the proportion of infected children found to be shedding S haematobium-S bovis hybrid miracidia much lower than in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers (11% in 2016 and 9% in 2017-18). In adults in Barkedji and Linguère, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 26% (17-36) in 2016 and 47% (34-60) in 2017-18, with 10% of infected samples containing S haematobium-S bovis hybrids. The prevalence of S bovis in the sympatric cattle population of Richard Toll and the Lac de Guiers was 92% (80-99), with S bovis also found in sheep (estimated prevalence 14% [5-31]) and goats (15% [5-33]). In Barkedji and Linguère the main schistosome species in livestock was Schistosoma curassoni, with an estimated prevalence of 73% (48-93) in sheep, 84% (61-98) in goats and 8% (2-24) in cattle. S haematobium-S bovis hybrids were not found in livestock. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers 35% of infected Bulinus spp snail intermediate hosts were found to be shedding S haematobium-S bovis hybrids (68% shedding S haematobium; 17% shedding S bovis); however, no snails were found to be shedding S haematobium hybrids in Barkedji and Linguère (29% shedding S haematobium; 71% shedding S curassoni).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that hybrids originate in humans via zoonotic spillover from livestock populations, where schistosomiasis is co-endemic. Introgressive hybridisation, evolving host ranges, and wider ecosystem contexts could affect the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis and other pathogens, demonstrating the need to consider control measures within a One Health framework.

FUNDING

Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems programme (UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK Department for International Development, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK Natural Environment Research Council, and UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory).

Mini-FLOTAC as an alternative, non-invasive diagnostic tool for Schistosoma mansoni and other trematode infections in wildlife reservoirs

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis and food-borne trematodiases are not only of major public health concern, but can also have profound implications for livestock production and wildlife conservation. The zoonotic, multi-host nature of many digenean trematodes is a significant challenge for disease control programmes in endemic areas. However, our understanding of the epidemiological role that animal reservoirs, particularly wild hosts, may play in the transmission of zoonotic trematodiases suffers a dearth of information, with few, if any, standardised, reliable diagnostic tests available. We combined qualitative and quantitative data derived from post-mortem examinations, coprological analyses using the Mini-FLOTAC technique, and molecular tools to assess parasite community composition and the validity of non-invasive methods to detect trematode infections in 89 wild Hubert's multimammate mice (Mastomys huberti) from northern Senegal.

RESULTS

Parasites isolated at post-mortem examination were identified as Plagiorchis sp., Anchitrema sp., Echinostoma caproni, Schistosoma mansoni, and a hybrid between Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma bovis. The reports of E. caproni and Anchitrema sp. represent the first molecularly confirmed identifications for these trematodes in definitive hosts of sub-Saharan Africa. Comparison of prevalence estimates derived from parasitological analysis at post-mortem examination and Mini-FLOTAC analysis showed non-significant differences indicating comparable results between the two techniques (P = 1.00 for S. mansoni; P = 0.85 for E. caproni; P = 0.83 for Plagiorchis sp.). A Bayesian model, applied to estimate the sensitivities of the two tests for the diagnosis of Schistosoma infections, indicated similar median posterior probabilities of 83.1% for Mini-FLOTAC technique and 82.9% for post-mortem examination (95% Bayesian credible intervals of 64.0-94.6% and 63.7-94.7%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that the Mini-FLOTAC could be applied as an alternative diagnostic technique for the detection of the zoonotic S. mansoni and other trematodes in rodent reservoirs. The implementation of non-invasive diagnostics in wildlife would offer numerous advantages over lethal sampling methodologies, with potential impact on control strategies of zoonotic helminthiases in endemic areas of sub-Saharan Africa and on fostering a framework of animal use reduction in scientific practice.

Rodents as Natural Hosts of Zoonotic Schistosoma Species and Hybrids: An Epidemiological and Evolutionary Perspective From West Africa

The complex multi-host disease dynamics of schistosomiasis and Schistosoma spp., including the emergence of zoonotic parasite hybrids, remain largely unexplored in West Africa. We elucidated the role of wild small mammals as reservoir for zoonotic Schistosoma species and hybrids in endemic areas of Senegal. We identified Schistosoma mansoni, Schistosoma bovis, and a Schistosoma haematobium/S. bovis hybrid, with local prevalence in wild rodents ranging from 1.9% to 28.6%. Our findings indicate that rodents may be an important local reservoir for zoonotic schistosomiasis in endemic areas of West Africa, amplifying transmission to humans and acting as natural definitive hosts of schistosome hybrids.

Opportunities and challenges for modelling epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics in a multihost, multiparasite system: Zoonotic hybrid schistosomiasis in West Africa

Multihost multiparasite systems are evolutionarily and ecologically dynamic, which presents substantial trans-disciplinary challenges for elucidating their epidemiology and designing appropriate control. Evidence for hybridizations and introgressions between parasite species is gathering, in part in line with improvements in molecular diagnostics and genome sequencing. One major system where this is becoming apparent is within the Genus Schistosoma, where schistosomiasis represents a disease of considerable medical and veterinary importance, the greatest burden of which occurs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interspecific hybridizations and introgressions bring an increased level of complexity over and above that already inherent within multihost, multiparasite systems, also representing an additional source of genetic variation that can drive evolution. This has the potential for profound implications for the control of parasitic diseases, including, but not exclusive to, widening host range, increased transmission potential and altered responses to drug therapy. Here, we present the challenging case example of haematobium group Schistosoma spp. hybrids in West Africa, a system involving multiple interacting parasites and multiple definitive hosts, in a region where zoonotic reservoirs of schistosomiasis were not previously considered to be of importance. We consider how existing mathematical model frameworks for schistosome transmission could be expanded and adapted to zoonotic hybrid systems, exploring how such model frameworks can utilize molecular and epidemiological data, as well as the complexities and challenges this presents. We also highlight the opportunities and value such mathematical models could bring to this and a range of similar multihost, multi and cross-hybridizing parasites systems in our changing world.

Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the 'elimination' era

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.