Historical Plant Sales (HPS) database: Documenting the spatiotemporal history of plant sales in the conterminous U.S

Historical horticultural plant sales influence native and nonnative species assemblages in contemporary ecosystems. Over half of nonnative, invasive plants naturalized in the United States were introduced as ornamentals, and the spatial and temporal patterns of early introduction undoubtedly influence current invasion ecology. While thousands of digitized nursery catalogs documenting these introductions are publicly available, they have not been standardized in a single database. To fill this gap, we obtained the names of all plant taxa (species, subspecies, and varieties) present in the Biodiversity Heritage Library's (BHL) Seed and Nursery Catalog Collection. We then searched the BHL database for these names and downloaded all available records. We combined BHL records with data from an encyclopedia of heirloom ornamental plants to create a single database of historical nursery sales in the US. Each record represents an individual taxon offered for sale at an individual time in a specific nursery's catalog. We standardized records to the current World Flora Online (http://worldfloraonline.org) accepted taxonomy and appended accepted USDA code, growth habit, and introduction status. We also appended whether taxa were reported as invasive in the Global Plant Invaders (GPI) data set or the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) or regulated in the conterminous US. Lastly, we geocoded all reported publication locations. The data set contains 2,445,875 records from nurseries in at least 2795 unique locations, with the majority of catalogs published between 1890 and 1950. Nurseries were located in all conterminous states but were concentrated in the eastern US and California. We identified 19,140 unique horticultural taxa, of which 8642 matched taxa in the USDA Plants database. The USDA Plants database is limited to native and naturalized taxa in the US. Native or introduced status was listed in USDA Plants for 7018 of included taxa, while 1642 had an unknown status. The remaining 10,498 taxa are not naturalized according to USDA Plants or are of varieties of native and introduced taxa that did not match USDA Plants taxonomy. The majority of taxa in the Historical Plant Sales (HPS) database with an identified status are native (65.5%; 4596 of 7018 taxa), of which 393 taxa are reported as invasive outside of the US. Of the 2381 introduced taxa, 1103 (46.3%) are reported as invasive somewhere globally. Despite a richer pool of native taxa, most cataloged plant records with an identified status were of introduced taxa (54.1%; 1,045,684 of 1,933,925 records). Plants reported as invasive somewhere globally comprised a large portion of records with an identified status (38.7%; 747,953 of 1,933,925 records) underscoring the large role of ornamental introductions in facilitating plant invasions. The HPS database provides a consolidated and standardized perspective on the history of native, introduced, and invasive plant sales in the US. We release these data into the public domain under a Creative Commons Zero license waiver (https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/publicdomain/cc0/). Individuals who use these data for publication may cite the associated data paper.

We don't know what we're missing: Evidence of a vastly undersampled invasive plant pool

Invasive plants are a prominent threat to ecosystems and economies worldwide. Knowing the identity of invasive plants is critical for preventing their introduction and spread. Yet several lines of evidence, including spatial and taxonomic biases in reporting and the ongoing emergence of new invasives, suggest that we are missing basic information about the identity of invasive plants. Using a database of invasive plants reported in the peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2020, we examined trends in the accumulation of new invasive plants over time and estimated the size of the current pool of invasive plants both continentally and globally. The number of new invasive plants continues to increase exponentially over time, showing no sign of saturation, even in the best studied regions. Moreover, a sample-size based rarefaction-extrapolation curve of reported taxa suggests that what is documented in the current literature (3008 taxa) only captures 64% of the likely number of invasive plants globally (4721 taxa ± 132 SE). These estimates varied continentally; less than half of invasive plant taxa have likely been identified in Oceania and Central and South Americas. Studies that included multiple invasive plants (e.g., floristic studies) were much more efficient at adding new taxa to our global understanding of what is invasive (identifying 4.2 times more new taxa than single-taxon studies). With more potential invaders arriving every day, this analysis highlights a critical gap in our knowledge of the current invasive plant pool. Expanding invasion science to better encompass understudied geographic areas and increasing the numbers of floristic surveys would greatly improve our ability to accurately and efficiently identify what taxa are invasive. Preventing invasive plant introductions is incumbent upon knowing the identity of invasive plants. Thus, large knowledge gaps remain in invasion ecology that hinder efforts to proactively prevent and manage invasive plants.

SPCIS: Standardized Plant Community with Introduced Status database

The movement of plant species across the globe exposes native communities to new species introductions. While introductions are pervasive, two aspects of variability underlie patterns and processes of biological invasions at macroecological scales. First, only a portion of introduced species become invaders capable of substantially impacting ecosystems. Second, species that do become invasive at one location may not be invasive in others; impacts depend on invader abundance and recipient species and conditions. Accounting for these phenomena is essential to accurately understand the patterns of plant invasion and explain the idiosyncratic results reflected in the literature on biological invasions. The lack of community-level richness and the abundance of data spanning broad scales and environmental conditions have until now hindered our understanding of invasions at a macroecological scale. To address this limitation, we leveraged quantitative surveys of plant communities in the USA and integrated and harmonized nine datasets into the Standardized Plant Community with Introduced Status (SPCIS) database. The database contains 14,056 unique taxa identified within 83,391 sampling units, of which 52.6% have at least one introduced species. The SPCIS database includes comparable information on plant species occurrence, abundance, and native status across the 50 U.S. States and Puerto Rico. SPCIS can be used to answer macro-scale questions about native plant communities and interactions with invasive plants. There are no copyright restrictions on the data, and we ask the users of this dataset to cite this paper, the respective paper(s) corresponding to the dataset sampling design (all references are provided in Data S1: Metadata S1: Class II-B-2), and the references described in Data S1: Metadata S1: Class III-B-4 as applicable to the dataset being utilized.

Invasive Species Policy Must Embrace a Changing Climate

With increasing impacts of climate change observed across ecosystems, there is an urgent need to consider climate change in all future environmental policy. But existing policy and management might be slow to respond to this challenge, leading to missed opportunities to incorporate climate change into practice. Furthermore, invasive species threats continue to rise and interact with climate change—exacerbating negative impacts. Enabling natural resource managers and individuals to be proactive about climate-driven invasive species threats creates a win–win for conservation. Recommendations include expanding opportunities for information sharing across borders, supporting proactive screening and regulation of high-risk species on the horizon, and incentivizing individual actions that reduce ecological impacts. In addition, invasive species risk should be considered when crafting climate mitigation and adaptation policy to reduce compounding stressors on ecosystems. As we develop much-needed tools to reduce harm, policy and management must consider the combined threats of invasions and climate change.

Global plant invaders: a compendium of invasive plant taxa documented by the peer-reviewed literature

Stopping invasive species early, before they are introduced or before they have a chance to spread, is essential for effective invasive species management. With new plants introduced constantly through global trade and shifting their ranges due to climate change, proactive action to prevent invasions is more important than ever. But, before we can prevent invasions through policy, monitoring, and management, we need to know the identity of which species are invasive. Existing lists of invasive plants vary across political and jurisdictional boundaries, often rely on inconsistent knowledge of local experts, and may conflate nonnative with invasive. Here, we reviewed papers published from 1959 to 2020 to create a single consistently derived list of known invasive plants. We searched the Web of Science core collection for "articles" containing the keywords "invasi*" and "plant" within the categories "Ecology," "Environmental Sciences," "Biodiversity Conservation," and "Plant Sciences." We also reviewed papers cited in reviews of invasive plants (see Metadata S1, Class II, Section B). We read titles and abstracts to identify papers that focused on nonnative and invasive vascular plants and included in the database any nonnative plant taxon either explicitly termed invasive in the paper or implicitly defined as invasive through a description of abundance, spread and/or impact. For 2017-2020, we included only papers that described multiple invasive plants, which are much more likely to uncover novel taxa. For each paper, we retained the reported invasive taxon name, text defining invasiveness, bibliographic information, and the country or countries in the invaded range where the study took place. We used Catalogue of Life and the Plant Taxonomic Name Resolution Source to resolve the taxonomy of the invasive taxa and compiled a list of unique invasive plants described in one or more scientific papers. We extracted data from 5,893 papers and identified 3,008 unique taxa, including 2,842 species, 96 subspecies, 29 varieties, and 41 hybrids. Of these, 2,981 taxa were resolved, while 27 were unresolved. 42% of the total unique taxa were studied once in the database. This database provides a consistent, global assessment of nonnative, invasive plant taxa. We release these data into the public domain under a Creative Commons Zero license waiver (https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/public-domain/cc0/). Individuals who use these data for publication may cite this data paper.

Translational invasion ecology: bridging research and practice to address one of the greatest threats to biodiversity

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers collaborate to develop and implement ecological research via joint consideration of the ecological, sociological, economic, and/or political contexts in order to improve invasive species management. TIE ideally results in improved outcomes as well as shared benefits between researchers and managers. We delineate the steps of our proposed TIE approach and describe successful examples of ongoing TIE projects from the US and internationally. We suggest practical ways to begin incorporating TIE into research and management practices, including supporting boundary-spanning organizations and activities, expanding networks, sharing translational experiences, and measuring outcomes. We find that there is a need for strengthened boundary spanning, as well as funding and recognition for advancing translational approaches. As climate change and globalization exacerbate invasive species impacts, TIE provides a promising approach to generate actionable ecological research while improving outcomes of invasive species management and policy decisions.

Habitat covariates do not artificially cause a negative correlation between native and non-native species richness

When analyzing biotic resistance/diversity-invasibility, including predictors of species richness may result in a false negative correlation between native and non-native richness. However, reanalysis of vegetation surveys shows that the negative effect of native richness is statistically significant whether or not predictors of species richness are included.

Correction to: Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers

The article Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managers, written by Evelyn M. Beaury

Biotic resistance to invasion is ubiquitous across ecosystems of the United States

The biotic resistance hypothesis predicts that diverse native communities are more resistant to invasion. However, past studies vary in their support for this hypothesis due to an apparent contradiction between experimental studies, which support biotic resistance, and observational studies, which find that native and non-native species richness are positively related at broad scales (small-scale studies are more variable). Here, we present a novel analysis of the biotic resistance hypothesis using 24 456 observations of plant richness spanning four community types and seven ecoregions of the United States. Non-native plant occurrence was negatively related to native plant richness across all community types and ecoregions, although the strength of biotic resistance varied across different ecological, anthropogenic and climatic contexts. Our results strongly support the biotic resistance hypothesis, thus reconciling differences between experimental and observational studies and providing evidence for the shared benefits between invasive species management and native biodiversity conservation.

Invasive grasses increase fire occurrence and frequency across US ecoregions

Fire-prone invasive grasses create novel ecosystem threats by increasing fine-fuel loads and continuity, which can alter fire regimes. While the existence of an invasive grass-fire cycle is well known, evidence of altered fire regimes is typically based on local-scale studies or expert knowledge. Here, we quantify the effects of 12 nonnative, invasive grasses on fire occurrence, size, and frequency across 29 US ecoregions encompassing more than one third of the conterminous United States. These 12 grass species promote fire locally and have extensive spatial records of abundant infestations. We combined agency and satellite fire data with records of abundant grass invasion to test for differences in fire regimes between invaded and nearby "uninvaded" habitat. Additionally, we assessed whether invasive grass presence is a significant predictor of altered fire by modeling fire occurrence, size, and frequency as a function of grass invasion, in addition to anthropogenic and ecological covariates relevant to fire. Eight species showed significantly higher fire-occurrence rates, which more than tripled for Schismus barbatus and Pennisetum ciliare. Six species demonstrated significantly higher mean fire frequency, which more than doubled for Neyraudia reynaudiana and Pennisetum ciliare Grass invasion was significant in fire occurrence and frequency models, but not in fire-size models. The significant differences in fire regimes, coupled with the importance of grass invasion in modeling these differences, suggest that invasive grasses alter US fire regimes at regional scales. As concern about US wildfires grows, accounting for fire-promoting invasive grasses will be imperative for effectively managing ecosystems.

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Quantifying the human influence on fire ignition across the western USA

Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes by increasing the frequency of ignitions. Although ignition is an integral component of understanding and predicting fire, to date fire models have not been able to isolate the ignition location, leading to inconsistent use of anthropogenic ignition proxies. Here, we identified fire ignitions from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Burned Area Product (2000-2012) to create the first remotely sensed, consistently derived, and regionally comprehensive fire ignition data set for the western United States. We quantified the spatial relationships between several anthropogenic land-use/disturbance features and ignition for ecoregions within the study area and used hierarchical partitioning to test how the anthropogenic predictors of fire ignition vary among ecoregions. The degree to which anthropogenic features predicted ignition varied considerably by ecoregion, with the strongest relationships found in the Marine West Coast Forest and North American Desert ecoregions. Similarly, the contribution of individual anthropogenic predictors varied greatly among ecoregions. Railroad corridors and agricultural presence tended to be the most important predictors of anthropogenic ignition, while population density and roads were generally poor predictors. Although human population has often been used as a proxy for ignitions at global scales, it is less important at regional scales when more specific land uses (e.g., agriculture) can be identified. The variability of ignition predictors among ecoregions suggests that human activities have heterogeneous impacts in altering fire regimes within different vegetation types and geographies.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

BACKGROUND

Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.

METHODS

We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.

RESULTS

Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species' fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche.

Association of single nucleotide polymorphisms in pro-inflammatory cytokine and toll-like receptor genes with pediatric hematogenous osteomyelitis

Hematogenous osteomyelitis (HO) is a bone infection wherein bacteria penetrate to the bone through the blood stream. Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with susceptibility to infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the contribution of SNPs in interleukin (IL)-1B1 (rs16944), IL1A (rs1800587), IL1B (rs1143634), toll-like receptor (TLR)-2 (rs3804099), TLR4 (rs4986790), TLR4 (rs4986791), IL1R (rs2234650), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α (rs1800629), TNF (rs361525), and IL1RN (rs315952) towards the development of HO in Saudi patients and compared to healthy controls. Fifty-two patients diagnosed with HO and 103 healthy individuals were genotyped. The frequencies of genotypes GG (rs16944) and AA (rs16944) were lower and higher in patients [odds ratio (OR) = 0.34, Pc = 0.05] and controls (OR = 1.33, Pc = 0.05), respectively, suggesting that SNPs at this locus could alter HO susceptibility. In addition, the patients and controls exhibited lower and higher frequencies of the alleles G (rs16944) (OR = 0.43, Pc = 0.007) and A (rs16944) (OR = 2.32, Pc = 0.007), respectively. The expression of alleles C (rs3804099) and T (rs3804099) were higher in patients (OR = 2.05, Pc = 0.04) and controls (OR = 0.49, Pc = 0.04), respectively. In conclusion, SNPs at rs16944 and rs3804099 were found to be associated with HO in the Saudi population.

Scaling up the diversity-resilience relationship with trait databases and remote sensing data: the recovery of productivity after wildfire

Understanding the mechanisms underlying ecosystem resilience - why some systems have an irreversible response to disturbances while others recover - is critical for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem function in the face of global change. Despite the widespread acceptance of a positive relationship between biodiversity and resilience, empirical evidence for this relationship remains fairly limited in scope and localized in scale. Assessing resilience at the large landscape and regional scales most relevant to land management and conservation practices has been limited by the ability to measure both diversity and resilience over large spatial scales. Here, we combined tools used in large-scale studies of biodiversity (remote sensing and trait databases) with theoretical advances developed from small-scale experiments to ask whether the functional diversity within a range of woodland and forest ecosystems influences the recovery of productivity after wildfires across the four-corner region of the United States. We additionally asked how environmental variation (topography, macroclimate) across this geographic region influences such resilience, either directly or indirectly via changes in functional diversity. Using path analysis, we found that functional diversity in regeneration traits (fire tolerance, fire resistance, resprout ability) was a stronger predictor of the recovery of productivity after wildfire than the functional diversity of seed mass or species richness. Moreover, slope, elevation, and aspect either directly or indirectly influenced the recovery of productivity, likely via their effect on microclimate, while macroclimate had no direct or indirect effects. Our study provides some of the first direct empirical evidence for functional diversity increasing resilience at large spatial scales. Our approach highlights the power of combining theory based on local-scale studies with tools used in studies at large spatial scales and trait databases to understand pressing environmental issues.

Post-traumatic immunosuppression is reversed by anti-coagulated salvaged blood transfusion: deductions from studying immune status after knee arthroplasty

Major trauma increases vulnerability to systemic infections due to poorly defined immunosuppressive mechanisms. It confers no evolutionary advantage. Our objective was to develop better biomarkers of post-traumatic immunosuppression (PTI) and to extend our observation that PTI was reversed by anti-coagulated salvaged blood transfusion, in the knowledge that others have shown that non-anti-coagulated (fibrinolysed) salvaged blood was immunosuppressive. A prospective non-randomized cohort study of patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty included 25 who received salvaged blood transfusions collected post-operatively into acid-citrate-dextrose anti-coagulant (ASBT cohort), and 18 non-transfused patients (NSBT cohort). Biomarkers of sterile trauma included haematological values, damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs), cytokines and chemokines. Salvaged blood was analysed within 1 and 6 h after commencing collection. Biomarkers were expressed as fold-changes over preoperative values. Certain biomarkers of sterile trauma were common to all 43 patients, including supranormal levels of: interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1-receptor-antagonist, IL-8, heat shock protein-70 and calgranulin-S100-A8/9. Other proinflammatory biomarkers which were subnormal in NSBT became supranormal in ASBT patients, including IL-1β, IL-2, IL-17A, interferon (IFN)-γ, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α and annexin-A2. Furthermore, ASBT exhibited subnormal levels of anti-inflammatory biomarkers: IL-4, IL-5, IL-10 and IL-13. Salvaged blood analyses revealed sustained high levels of IL-9, IL-10 and certain DAMPs, including calgranulin-S100-A8/9, alpha-defensin and heat shock proteins 27, 60 and 70. Active synthesis during salvaged blood collection yielded increasingly elevated levels of annexin-A2, IL-1β, Il-1-receptor-antagonist, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-17A, IFN-γ, TNF-α, transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α. Elevated levels of high-mobility group-box protein-1 decreased. In conclusion, we demonstrated that anti-coagulated salvaged blood reversed PTI, and was attributed to immune stimulants generated during salvaged blood collection.

Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation

Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning.

Integrated assessment of biological invasions

As the main witnesses of the ecological and economic impacts of invasions on ecosystems around the world, ecologists seek to provide the relevant science that informs managers about the potential for invasion of specific organisms in their region(s) of interest. Yet, the assorted literature that could inform such forecasts is rarely integrated to do so, and further, the diverse nature of the data available complicates synthesis and quantitative prediction. Here we present a set of analytical tools for synthesizing different levels of distributional and/or demographic data to produce meaningful assessments of invasion potential that can guide management at multiple phases of ongoing invasions, from dispersal to colonization to proliferation. We illustrate the utility of data-synthesis and data-model assimilation approaches with case studies of three well-known invasive species--a vine, a marine mussel, and a freshwater crayfish--under current and projected future climatic conditions. Results from the integrated assessments reflect the complexity of the invasion process and show that the most relevant climatic variables can have contrasting effects or operate at different intensities across habitat types. As a consequence, for two of the study species climate trends will increase the likelihood of invasion in some habitats and decrease it in others. Our results identified and quantified both bottlenecks and windows of opportunity for invasion, mainly related to the role of human uses of the landscape or to disruption of the flow of resources. The approach we describe has a high potential to enhance model realism, explanatory insight, and predictive capability, generating information that can inform management decisions and optimize phase-specific prevention and control efforts for a wide range of biological invasions.

Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were -3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EM-MM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EM-MM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

Accidental introductions are an important source of invasive plants in the continental United States

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Preventing new plant invasions is critical for reducing large-scale ecological change. Most studies have focused on the deliberate introduction of nonnatives via the ornamental plant trade. However, accidental introduction may be an important source of nonnative, invasive plants.

METHODS

Using Web and literature searches, we compiled pathways of introduction to the United States for 1112 nonnative plants identified as invasive in the continental United States. We assessed how the proportion of accidentally and deliberately introduced invasive plants varies over time and space and by growth habit across the lower 48 states.

KEY RESULTS

Deliberate introductions of ornamentals are the primary source of invasive plants in the United States, but accidental introductions through seed contaminants are an important secondary source. Invasive forbs and grasses are the most likely to have arrived accidentally through seed contaminants, while almost all nonnative, invasive trees were introduced deliberately. Nonnative plants invading eastern states primarily arrived deliberately as ornamentals, while a high proportion of invasive plants in western states arrived accidentally as seed contaminants. Accidental introductions may be increasing in importance through time. Before 1850, 10 of 89 (11%) of invasive plants arrived accidentally. After 1900, 20 of 65 (31%) arrived accidentally.

CONCLUSIONS

Recently enacted screening protocols and weed risk assessments aim to reduce the number of potentially invasive species arriving to the United States via deliberate introduction pathways. Increasing proportions of accidentally introduced invasive plants, particularly associated with contaminated seed imports across the western states, suggest that accidental introduction pathways also need to be considered in future regulatory decisions.

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980-2009)

Non-native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass-fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large-scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000-2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km(2) ). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass-dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5-6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1-5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi-date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass-driven fire regimes at a regional scale.

Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

Predicting plant invasions in an era of global change

The relationship between plant invasions and global change is complex. Whereas some components of global change, such as rising CO2, usually promote invasion, other components, such as changing temperature and precipitation, can help or hinder plant invasion. Additionally, experimental studies and models suggest that invasive plants often respond unpredictably to multiple components of global change acting in concert. Such variability adds uncertainty to existing risk assessments and other predictive tools. Here, we review current knowledge about relationships between plant invasion and global change, and highlight research needed to improve forecasts of invasion risk. Managers should be prepared for both expansion and contraction of invasive plants due to global change, leading to increased risk or unprecedented opportunities for restoration.

Characterizing the landscape dynamics of an invasive plant and risk of invasion using remote sensing

Improved understanding of the spatial dynamics of invasive plant species may lead to more effective land management and reduced future invasion. Here, we identified the spatial extents of nonnative cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in the north central Great Basin using remotely sensed data from Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM+. We compared cheatgrass extents in 1973 and 2001 to six spatially explicit landscape variables: elevation, aspect, hydrographic channels, cultivation, roads, and power lines. In 2001, Cheatgrass was 10% more likely to be found in elevation ranges from 1400 to 1700 m (although the data suggest a preferential invasion into lower elevations by 2001), 6% more likely on west and northwest facing slopes, and 3% more likely within hydrographic channels. Over this time period, cheatgrass expansion was also closely linked to proximity to land use. In 2001, cheatgrass was 20% more likely to be found within 3 km of cultivation, 13% more likely to be found within 700 m of a road, and 15% more likely to be found within 1 km of a power line. Finally, in 2001 cheatgrass was 26% more likely to be present within 150 m of areas occupied by cheatgrass in 1973. Using these relationships, we created a risk map of future cheatgrass invasion that may aid land management. These results highlight the importance of including land use variables and the extents of current plant invasion in predictions of future risk.

Incidence and specificity of HLA antibodies in multitransfused patients with acquired aplastic anemia

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish the prevalence and characteristics of anti-HLA in antibody acquired aplastic anemia patients following cessation of antithymocyte globulin therapy and to characterize antibody in terms of epitope specificity.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

One hundred and fifty multitransfused, untransplanted patients from eight European centers were investigated by serologic methods.

RESULTS

Sixty-two percent were antibody positive. Eighteen HLA-Class-I-specific antibodies (15 IgG, 3 IgM) were identified in 13 patients; 13 antibodies were specific for HLA-A epitopes and 5 for HLA-B. Epitope analysis identified significant correlation between serum reactivity and amino acid substitutions associated with HLA-Class-I epitopes. An excess of antibodies to HLA-A1-associated cross-reactive groups was identified. There was no significant difference in antibody frequency in patients taking cyclosporine compared to those who were not.

CONCLUSION

Data suggested a contribution from B cell memory of alloantigens introduced during pregnancy. In some cases, antibody production continued many years after the last transfusion, and although the target varied between individual patients, the antibody to HLA was focused on a few specific Class I epitopes, the majority of which mapped to the HLA-A molecule.

In vitro expansion of cord blood does not prevent engraftment of severe combined immunodeficient repopulating cells

This study aimed to assess the potential of human cord blood (CB) cells to engraft in the xenogenic non-obese diabetic/severe combined immunodeficient (NOD/SCID) mouse model after in vitro expansion culture. We also studied the quality of human haemopoiesis arising from the transplantation of fresh or expanded cells in this model. Cord blood CD34(+) cells were cultured for 3, 7 or 10 d with stem cell factor, Flt3, thrombopoietin, interleukin 3 (IL-3), IL-6 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, all at 10 ng/ml in serum-replete conditions. Transplantation of mice with fresh CB containing 3 x 10(4) CD34(+) cells and 1-2 SCID repopulating cells (SRC) resulted in a median of 7.4% (0.4%-76.8%) human engraftment. When mice received the expanded product of 1-2 SRC, the ability to repopulate NOD/SCID mice was maintained even after 10 d of in vitro culture. Serial dilution of the expanded cells suggested that in vitro expansion had increased SRC numbers two- to fourfold. Expanded SRC produced long-term culture-initiating cells, clonogenic cells and CD34(+) cells in the same proportions as fresh cells after successful engraftment. Therefore, expanded SRC were able to differentiate in the same way as fresh SRC. There was a trend towards lower levels of engraftment when d 7 cultured cells were transplanted (median engraftment 0.8%, range 0.0-24.0%) compared with 1-2 fresh SRC. Our data suggest that this is owing to reduced proliferation of cultured cells in vivo. By utilizing limiting numbers of CB SRC, we confirmed that the engraftment potential of SRC in the NOD/SCID model was preserved after in vitro expansion. Furthermore, dilution experiments strongly suggest two- to fourfold expansion of SRC in vitro. These studies are relevant for developing clinical stem cell expansion strategies.