Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality and healthcare assessment among patients with chronic disease over 2 years of COVID-19: a population-based study in a large hard-hit Italian region

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide a region-wide comprehensive account of the indirect effects of COVID-19 on patients with chronic disease, in terms of non-COVID-19 mortality, and access to both inpatient and outpatient health services over a 2-year pandemic period.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective study.

SETTING

Adult patients, affected by at least 1 of 32 prevalent chronic conditions, residing in the Emilia-Romagna Region in Italy, during the years 2020 (N=1 791 189, 47.7% of the overall adult regional population) and 2021 (N=1 801 071, 47.8%).

RESULTS

Overall, non-COVID-19 mortality among patients with chronic disease during the pandemic (2.7%) did not differ substantially from the expected mortality (2.5%), based on a 3 years prepandemic period (2017-2019) and adjusting for the demographic and clinical characteristics of the population under study. Indeed, while the first pandemic wave was characterised by a significant non-COVID-19 excess mortality (March: +35%), the subsequent phases did not show such disruptive variations in non-COVID-19 deaths, which remained around or even below the excess mortality threshold. End-of-life care of patients with chronic disease, especially for non-COVID-19 cases, significantly shifted from hospitalisations (-19%), to homecare (ADI: +7%; w/o ADI: +9%). Overall, healthcare of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease decreased, with similar negative trends in hospitalisations (-15.5%), major procedures (-19.6%) and ER accesses (-23.7%). Homecare was the least affected by the pandemic, with an overall reduction of -9.8%. COVID-19 outbreak also impacted on different types of outpatient care. Rehabilitation therapies, specialist visits, diagnostic and lab tests were considerably reduced during the first pandemic wave and consequent lockdown, with access rates of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease below -60%.

CONCLUSIONS

This work thoroughly describes how a large and well-defined population of patients without COVID-19 chronic disease has been affected by the changes and reorganisation in the healthcare system during 2 years of the pandemic, highlighting health priorities and challenges in chronic disease management under conditions of limited resources.

Direct impact of 2 years of COVID-19 on chronic disease patients: a population-based study in a large hard-hit Italian region

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide a region-wide comprehensive account of the direct effects of COVID-19 on chronic disease patients, in terms of disease incidence, severity and mortality, over a 2-year pandemic period (2020-2021).

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients, affected by at least 1 of 32 prevalent chronic conditions, residing in the Emilia-Romagna Region in Italy, during the years 2020 (N=1 791 189, 47.7% of the overall adult regional population) and 2021 (N=1 801 071, 47.8%).

RESULTS

COVID-19 incidence among chronic disease patients was 4.1% (74 067 cases) in 2020 and 7.3% (126 556 cases) in 2021, varying across pathologies, with obesity and dementia showing the highest incidence. Hospitalisation rate for pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome among SARS-CoV-2-positive patients was 15.4%. COVID-19-related excess mortality, that is, deaths from COVID-19 as either main or contributing (1.5% of the total) cause of death, was observed during the three pandemic waves, with observed/expected death ratios ranging from +38% (March 2020) to +11% (December 2021). Increased risks of both COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death were associated with male gender, elderly age and many pre-existing pathologies, including cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases, neurological and psychiatric disorders, and metabolic dysfunctions. The higher the number of concomitant pathologies, the greater the risk of COVID-19-related adverse outcomes: the likelihood of hospitalisation and death more than doubled for people with more than two comorbidities, compared with those with one underlying condition.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a thorough and up-to-date quantification of the direct impact of COVID-19 on chronic disease patients. The results obtained are particularly relevant considering that people with pre-existing chronic conditions accounted for almost all cases of COVID-19-related hospitalisation (82.6%) and death (91.5%) in a vast region of Italy, among the hardest hit by the pandemic.

Digital Image Analyses in Quantitative Assessment of Key Morphologic Features of Esophageal Squamous Dysplasia and Reactive Squamous Epithelium

Introduction/Objective

Distinguishing esophageal squamous dysplasia (ESD) from reactive squamous epithelium (RSE) is a diagnostic challenge. This distinction is subjective and based upon interpretation and integration of histologic features. How the features of nuclear/cytoplasmic ratio, nuclear size, shape, and contours are used to make a diagnosis is not entirely known. The goal of our study is to quantitatively determine the performance of key histologic features using image analysis (IA) to distinguish ESD and RSE.

Methods/Case Report

The study included 50 cases of ESD (2016-19) and 50 cases of RSE (2019). One representative image (tif format) from each H&E slide was obtained at 10x via digital microscope camera. Open source software (QuPath) was utilized. Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used to evaluate differences in measurements between ESD and RSE.

Results (if a Case Study enter NA)

In nuclear measurements, ESD had greater area (41.4μm2 vs 37.4μm2; p<0.001), greater nuclear perimeter (24.9μm vs 23.8μm; p<0.001), less circularity (0.80 vs 0.81; p=0.005), and was more elliptical (eccentricity: 0.74 vs 0.72; p<0.001) than RSE. ESD had lower nucleus/cell area ratio than RSE (0.32 vs 0.33; p=0.010). ESD was further subdivided into low grade dysplasia (LGD; n=18) and high grade dysplasia (HGD; n=37) groups and analyzed. LGD and HGD showed statistically significant differences from RSE in nuclear area (p=0.002;<0.001), perimeter (p=0.006;<0.001), and eccentricity (p=0.005;<0.001). While LGD and RSE did not show significant difference in nuclear circularity (contour) or nuclear/cell area ratio, this difference was demonstrated between HGD and RSE (p=0.007 and p=0.003).

Conclusion

Through quantitative analysis of cytologic features, our study supports the feature extraction that is performed on routine H&E is when distinguishing ESD and RSE. However, quantitative analysis offers an objective approach in this diagnostic challenge. We continue to investigate the utility of IA in diagnosis of ESD for progressive advancement in practice and diagnosis for patient care.

How Many Cancer Patients Need Palliative Care? A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The number of cancer patients potentially amenable to palliative care is conventionally estimated from cancer deaths, as reported in the death certificates. However, a more representative population should also include cancer patients who die from causes other than cancer, as they may develop other life-limiting chronic conditions leading to terminal prognosis.

AIM

This study aimed at refining the assessment of the number of cancer patients potentially in need of palliative care, by linked hospital and death data.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Residents in the Emilia Romagna Region in Italy, who died between 2009 and 2017.

RESULTS

We identified a potential palliative care population of 157,547 cancer patients. The use of different administrative data sources enhanced the sensitivity of our selection. Starting from a standard estimate of 129,212 patients based on cancer as the primary cause of death, we showed that the additional use of hospital records identified a further 11.4% of possible palliative care patients 14,687. Also considering cancer as secondary cause of death, the estimate further increased by 10.6% (13,648 new cases). Notably, the proportion of cancer patients selected by the additional data sources were characterized by more advanced age and higher prevalence of comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Healthcare services addressing the issue of estimating palliative care needs of cancer patients at a population level should consider that relying on the death certificate alone may lead to underestimating these needs of about 22%.

General and COVID-19-Related Mortality by Pre-Existing Chronic Conditions and Care Setting during 2020 in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy

In 2020, the number of deaths increased in Italy, mainly because of the COVID-19 pandemic; mortality was among the highest in Europe, with a clear heterogeneity among regions and socio-demographic strata. The present work aims to describe trends in mortality and to quantify excess mortality variability over time and in relation to demographics, pre-existent chronic conditions and care setting of the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy). This is a registry-based cross-sectional study comparing the 2020 observed mortality with figures of the previous five years by age, sex, month, place of death, and chronicity. It includes 300,094 deaths in those 18 years of age and above resident in the Emilia-Romagna region. Excess deaths were higher during the first pandemic wave, particularly among men and in March. Age-adjusted risk was similar among both men and women (Mortality Rate Ratio 1.15; IC95% 1.14–1.16). It was higher among females aged 75+ years and varied between sub-periods. Excluding COVID-19 related deaths, differences in the risk of dying estimates tended to disappear. Metabolic and neuropsychiatric diseases were more prevalent among those that deceased in 2020 compared to the deaths that occurred in 2015–2019 and therefore can be confirmed as elements of increased frailty, such as being in long-term care facilities or private homes as the place of death. Understanding the impact of the pandemic on mortality considering frailties is relevant in a changing scenario.

Early palliative/supportive care in acute myeloid leukaemia allows low aggression end-of-life interventions: observational outpatient study

OBJECTIVES

Early palliative supportive care has been associated with many advantages in patients with advanced cancer. However, this model is underutilised in patients with haematological malignancies. We investigated the presence and described the frequency of quality indicators for palliative care and end-of-life care in a cohort of patients with acute myeloid leukaemia receiving early palliative supportive care.

METHODS

This is an observational, retrospective study based on 215 patients consecutively enrolled at a haematology early palliative supportive care clinic in Modena, Italy. Comprehensive hospital chart reviews were performed to abstract the presence of well-established quality indicators for palliative care and for aggressiveness of care near the end of life.

RESULTS

131 patients received a full early palliative supportive care intervention. All patients had at least one and 67 (51%) patients had four or more quality indicators for palliative care. Only 2.7% of them received chemotherapy in the last 14 days of life. None underwent intubation or cardiopulmonary resuscitation and was admitted to intensive care unit during the last month of life. Only 4% had either multiple hospitalisations or two or more emergency department access. Approximately half of them died at home or in a hospice. More than 40% did not receive transfusions within 7 days of death. The remaining 84 patients, considered late referrals to palliative care, demonstrated sensibly lower frequencies of the same indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with acute myeloid leukaemia receiving early palliative supportive care demonstrated high frequency of quality indicators for palliative care and low rates of treatment aggressiveness at the end of life.

Multimorbidity epidemiology and health care utilization through combined healthcare administrative databases

BACKGROUND

multimorbidity analysis provides essential information to support health policy in the field of prevention, clinical management, and resources allocation in order to guarantee personalized and adequate strategies for patients with multiple chronic pathologies.

OBJECTIVES

to present the application of a methodology based upon data retrieved in healthcare administrative databases to investigate the extent of multimorbidity (coexistence of two or more chronic condition), evaluating its epidemiology, its impact on healthcare resources, and identifying patterns of associative multimorbidity, based on non-random association among chronic diseases. DESIGN: observational study based on regional healthcare data record linkage.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

all people aged 18 years or older permanently or temporarily resident in Emilia-Romagna Region (Northern Italy) during 2017 (amounting to 3,901,252 persons) were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

period prevalence and incidence of 32 chronic diseases; identification of patients affected by two or more concurrent chronic diseases (multimorbid patients), and evaluation of their period prevalence, incidence, healthcare resources use, and costs. Factorial analysis was applied to assess association among chronic diseases and to estimate groups of chronic conditions non-randomly coexisting (patterns of multimorbidity) among the elderly (people aged 65+ years).

RESULTS

the multimorbidity incidence rate in 2017 was 2.7% (4.9% in the elderly) and the multimorbidity period prevalence, evaluated on the 3,901,252 adult residents, was 25.2%, ranging from 2.8% in people aged <40 years to 72.5% in octogenarians, with no major difference by gender. Sixty one percent of the elderly suffered from two or more concurrent chronic diseases and, among these, four groups of chronic condition non-randomly coexisting were recognized (cardiovascular, neuropsychiatric, metabolic, and pain pattern). These four multimorbidity patterns affected 39.6% of over 65. The impact on healthcare resources use was considerable: about 70% of all provided healthcare services and 72% of the costs incurred by Regional Health Service was allocated to multimorbid patients (81% and 86.7%, respectively, among the elderly).

CONCLUSIONS

healthcare administrative databases are a valuable tool to assess the frequency of multimorbidity and its impact on healthcare resources. Patients belonging to the four common patterns of multimorbidity identified in this study explained a high proportion of multimorbidity prevalence and healthcare resources use.

In- and out-of-hospital mortality for myocardial infarction during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Emilia-Romagna, Italy: A population-based observational study

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has put several healthcare systems under severe pressure. The present analysis investigates how the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the myocardial infarction (MI) network of Emilia-Romagna (Italy).

Methods

Based on Emilia-Romagna mortality registry and administrative data from all the hospitals from January 2017 to June 2020, we analysed: i) temporal trend in MI hospital admissions; ii) characteristics, management, and 30-day mortality of MI patients; iii) out-of-hospital mortality for cardiac cause.

Findings

Admissions for MI declined on February 22, 2020 (IRR -19.5%, 95%CI from -8.4% to -29.3%, p = 0.001), and further on March 5, 2020 (IRR -21.6%, 95%CI from -9.0% to -32.5%, p = 0.001). The return to pre-COVID-19 MI-related admission levels was observed from May 13, 2020 (IRR 34.3%, 95%CI 20.0%-50.2%, p<0.001). As compared to those before the pandemic, MI patients admitted during and after the first wave were younger and with fewer risk factors. The 30-day mortality remained in line with that expected based on previous years (ratio observed/expected was 0.96, 95%CI 0.84-1.08). MI patients positive for SARS-CoV-2 were few (1.5%) but showed poor prognosis (around 5-fold increase in 30-day mortality). In 2020, the number of out-of-hospital cardiac deaths was significantly higher (ratio observed/expected 1.17, 95%CI 1.08-1.27). The peak was reached in April.

Interpretation

In Emilia-Romagna, MI hospitalizations significantly decreased during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Management and outcomes of hospitalized MI patients remained unchanged, except for those with SARS-CoV-2 infection. A concomitant increase in the out-of-hospital cardiac mortality was observed.

Funding

None.

[Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular mortality]

The dramatic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic extends beyond the risk of deaths related to virus infection. Excess deaths from other causes, particularly cardiovascular deaths, have been reported worldwide. Our study based on administrative databases of the Emilia-Romagna region demonstrates a 17% excess of out-of-hospital cardiac deaths in the first 2020 semester with a peak of +62% on April. The excess of cardiac deaths may be explained by the indirect consequences of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These include a dramatic reduction of hospital admissions during the pandemic, particularly for acute coronary syndromes; an increase of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests; a reduction of outpatient clinic activities and cardiac procedures; long-term cardiovascular effects of COVID-19; and unfavorable cardiac effects of the lockdown imposed by the spread of COVID-19 infection. The knowledge of the indirect consequences of COVID-19 pandemic is important for planning cardiologic strategies.

Key Differences in Final Pathology Compared to Pre-Operative Clinical Diagnoses in the Liver Transplant Population: Implications for Quality Improvement

Introduction/Objective

The pre-transplant clinical evaluation of patients with liver disease are critical components determining prognoses, eligibility and placement on the transplant waiting (eg. hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may decrease time on list), and surgical planning for the type of biliary anastomosis performed. For example, patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) are given direct liver to small bowel anastomosis, a type prone to ascending cholangitis, compared to duct to duct types in all other etiologies, and a clinical diagnoses of alcohol-induced cirrhosis impacts the patient’s and family’s psycho-social well-being. The goal of our study was to determine the frequency and types of differences in the clinical versus liver explant pathology diagnoses.

Methods

A search for “liver explant” for all in-house cases between 7/15/2019 to 7/15/2018 and 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2010 identified 105 and 108 cases, respectively. For each case, pre-operative clinical diagnoses determined by the electronic medical record was compared to pathologic diagnosis. Cases with non-concordance were divided into two groups: 1. Concordant etiology but incidental malignancy identified in explant 2. Non-concordant etiology.

Results

In the 2018–2019 group, of the 105 liver explants, 6 had concordant etiology but previously unknown HCC and 9 cases had non-concordant diagnoses. Similarly, the 2010 group, of the 108 liver explants, 6 had consistent etiology but previously unknown HCC and 8 cases non-concordant diagnoses. Of the total 17 non-concordant cases, 4 carried a pre-transplant diagnosis of PSC and were reversed to autoimmune hepatitis (2), chronic rejection, and primary biliary cholangitis on explant pathology and 3 carried a diagnosis of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and were reversed to portal tract venopathy, viral hepatitis, and alpha-1 antitrypsin.

Conclusion

There are clinically significant discordances between pre-transplant and explant diagnoses with 6% incidental malignancies and 8% etiology changes. Of particular importance for anastomoses complications and psycho-social issues are patients with a pre-operative diagnoses of PSC or alcohol whose diagnosis was changed by pathology explant assessment, respectfully. Strategies to refine and improve pre-operative liver disease diagnoses particularly with regard to biliary and alcohol diagnoses will be explored.

Impact of the Cholangiocarcinoma Component of Combined Hepatocellular/Hepatocholangiocarcinoma on Patient Survival

Introduction/Objective

The radiopathologic correlation, overall prognosis, and best management of combined hepatocellular carcinoma/cholangiocarcinoma (HCC/CC) remains uncharted territory.

Methods

We studied whether the percentage (%) of the cholangiocarcinoma (CC) component of HCC/CC impacted patient survival. A retrospective analysis was performed including all cases (18) of HCC/CC in the pathology archives from 2011–2019. Tumor beds were submitted entirely in all but 2 specimens, which were representatively sampled.

Slides from these cases were reviewed to assess % of CC. Survival was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of demise and censored as the date last known alive at the time of the study.

Results

13 cases were liver explants, 2 were resections, and 3 were biopsies. 13 cases were from clinical stage II patients, 2 were clinical stage IVA, and 2 were clinical stage IVB. All but one patient in the study group were males. There was no predilection for any specific tumor site. The cases were divided into three groups related to CC percentage: 0–20 (n=5), 21–40 (n=6), and &gt;40% (n=7). AFP was variably elevated in select cases, with the highest values found in the medium and high % groups. Though there was no significant difference in overall survival among the three groups, mean and median survival trended in a downward fashion with increased % CC. Interestingly, radiology read 12 cases as HCC, 1 as intrahepatic CC, and only 1 as cholangiocarcinoma/hepatoma, atypical for HCC.

Conclusion

We conclude that there is a trend for decreased survival as % CC increases in combined HCC/CC patients, with patients with &gt;20% CC tending to have lower survival rates. Furthermore, incongruity exists between radiologic and pathologic diagnoses of combined HCC/CC. Additional study with a larger sample size will yield more information to understand better prognosis as well as guide more accurate diagnosis of these patients.

[Nursing sensitive outcomes: the results of a multicentre study]

. Nursing sensitive outcomes: the results of a multicentre study.

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between staffing characteristics and nursing sensitive outcomes has been explored in several studies.

AIMS

To assess the effect of staffing characteristics, nurses' wellbeing at work and hours of care on pressure sores, falls and physical restrains occurrence.

METHODS

Longitudinal study including from February 2014 to June 2015 a total of 24110 consecutive patients and 2606 nurses of 134 units (geriatrics and medicine (GM), orthopedic-traumatology (OT) and rehabilitation and long-term care (LR) of 12 Italian regions. Data was collected up to 15 days for each included patient, and regarding the staff of each shift by ad hoc trained personnel.

RESULTS

There is a large variability in both patients and nurses' characteristics across wards, as well as of outcomes, even in the same area (e.g., GM). Patients in GM received a mean of 144±35 minutes of care/day; 186±146 in OT and 140±40 in LR. The incidence of pressure sores was 5.3%±4.8% in GM; 5.1%±5.6% in OT and 8.6%±10.1% in LR. The incidence of falls was 1.9%±2.1% in GM, 0.8%±1% in OT and 2.9%±3.8% in LR. Restraints were used in 41.4%±30.3% of patients in GM, among 24.8%±23.4% in OT and 54.7%±29.7% in LR. The multilevel analyses confirmed the importance of clinical factors but also the positive effects of staff characteristics such as the number of expert nurses and the negative effects of a negative work environment, although with wide variations across settings have emerged.

CONCLUSIONS

Staff characteristics related to work environment affect patient outcomes but the large variability across wards would require further stratification of the data to better understand and interpret the findings.

Effectiveness of palliative care services: A population-based study of end-of-life care for cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies demonstrate substantial utilization of acute hospital care and, potentially excessive, intensive medical and surgical treatments at the end-of-life.

AIM

To evaluate the relationship between the use of home and facility-based hospice palliative care for patients dying with cancer and service utilization at the end of life.

DESIGN

Retrospective, population-level study using administrative databases. The effect of palliative care was analyzed between coarsened exact matched cohorts and evaluated through a conditional logistic regression model.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

The study was conducted on the cohort of 34,357 patients, resident in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy, admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of metastatic or poor-prognosis cancer during the 6 months before death between January 2013 and December 2015.

RESULTS

Patients who received palliative care experienced significantly lower rates of all indicators of aggressive care such as hospital admission (odds ratio (OR) = 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04-0.06), emergency department visits (OR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.21-0.25), intensive care unit stays (OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.26-0.32), major operating room procedures (OR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.21-0.24), and lower in-hospital death (OR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.10-0.11). This cohort had significantly higher rates of opiate prescriptions (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.21-1.33) ( p < 0.01 for all comparisons).

CONCLUSION

Use of palliative care at the end of life for cancer patients is associated with a reduction of the use of high-cost, intensive services. Future research is necessary to evaluate the impact of increasing use of palliative care services on other health outcomes. Administrative databases linked at the patient level are a useful data source for assessment of care at the end of life.

Multiregion whole-exome sequencing of matched primary and metastatic tumors revealed genomic heterogeneity and suggested polyclonal seeding in colorectal cancer metastasis

Background

Distant metastasis accounts for 90% of deaths from colorectal cancer (CRC). Genomic heterogeneity has been reported in various solid malignancies, but remains largely under-explored in metastatic CRC tumors, especially in primary to metastatic tumor evolution.

Patients and methods

We conducted high-depth whole-exome sequencing in multiple regions of matched primary and metastatic CRC tumors. Using a total of 28 tumor, normal, and lymph node tissues, we analyzed inter- and intra-individual heterogeneity, inferred the tumor subclonal architectures, and depicted the subclonal evolutionary routes from primary to metastatic tumors.

Results

CRC has significant inter-individual but relatively limited intra-individual heterogeneity. Genomic landscapes were more similar within primary, metastatic, or lymph node tumors than across these types. Metastatic tumors exhibited less intratumor heterogeneity than primary tumors, indicating that single-region sequencing may be adequate to identify important metastasis mutations to guide treatment. Remarkably, all metastatic tumors inherited multiple genetically distinct subclones from primary tumors, supporting a possible polyclonal seeding mechanism for metastasis. Analysis of one patient with the trio samples of primary, metastatic, and lymph node tumors supported a mechanism of synchronous parallel dissemination from the primary to metastatic tumors that was not mediated through lymph nodes.

Conclusions

In CRC, metastatic tumors have different but less heterogeneous genomic landscapes than primary tumors. It is possible that CRC metastasis is, at least partly, mediated through a polyclonal seeding mechanism. These findings demonstrated the rationale and feasibility for identifying and targeting primary tumor-derived metastasis-potent subclones for the prediction, prevention, and treatment of CRC metastasis.

[Transcatheter aortic valve implantation versus aortic valve replacement: cost analysis from the regional health service and hospital perspectives]

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) procedures, together with the cost of the first-year hospitalizations following the index ones, in 4 Italian regions where diffusion level of TAVI and coverage decisions are different.

METHODS

The cost analysis was performed evaluating 372 patients enrolled consecutively from December 1, 2012 to September 30, 2015. The index hospitalization cost was calculated both from the hospital perspective through a full-costing approach and from the regional healthcare service perspective by applying the regional reimbursement tariffs. The follow-up costs were calculated for one year after the index hospitalization, from the regional healthcare sservice perspective, through the identification of hospital admissions for cardiovascular pathologies after the index hospitalization and computation of the relative regional tariffs.

RESULTS

The mean hospitalization cost was € 32 120 for transfemoral TAVI (232 procedures), € 35 958 for transapical TAVI (31 procedures) and € 17 441 for AVR (109 procedures). From the regional healthcare service perspective, the mean transfemoral TAVI cost was € 29 989, with relevant regional variability (range from € 19 987 to € 36 979); the mean transapical TAVI cost was € 39 148; the mean AVR cost was € 32 020. The mean follow-up costs were € 2294 for transfemoral TAVI, € 2335 for transapical TAVI, and € 2601 for AVR.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, transapical TAVI resulted more expensive than transfemoral TAVI, while surgical AVR was cheaper than both (less than 40%). Costs of the transfemoral approach showed great variability between participating regions, probably due to different hospital costs, logistics, patients' selection and reimbursement policy. A central level of control would be appropriate to avoid unjustified differences in access to innovative procedures between different Italian regions.

Cholecystectomy in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy): A retrospective cohort study based on a large administrative database

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to ascertain the variability and to identify a trend for the outcome of cholecystectomy surgery when used to treat cholelithiasis and acute cholecystitis.

METHODS

This was a large retrospective cohort study following patients up to 11 years post surgery, based on administrative data collected from 2002 to 2012 in the Emilia-Romagna Region (Northern Italy) and comparing the effectiveness and efficiency of surgical activity (laparoscopic (LC) and open cholecystectomy (OC)). Analyses included patient characteristics, length of hospital stay, type of admission and mortality risk. Outcomes considered were death from all causes (during the index hospital admission or thereafter), hospital readmissions with cholecystitis or cholelithiasis as principal diagnosis and time to surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 84,628 cholecystomies were performed from 2002 to 2012 out of 123,061 admissions with primary diagnostic category of cholecystitis or cholelitiasis. Laparoscopic procedure was used in 69,842 patients. Over time there was a rising linear statistically significant trend in the use of LC. Mortality rate at 1 year of OC treated patients showed a statistically significant difference compared to LC treated patients (using a cohorts match with propensity score). Only a small number of patients with acute cholecystitis was operated according guidelines within 72 hours.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of aggregate administrative data is a powerful tool to support regional health management, improve the quality of medical care, and assess the appropriateness of therapeutic or diagnostic approaches. It is important to stress a short hospital stay for laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients (50% less than open surgery): this shorter hospital stay leads to a significant economic advantage. Moreover, mortality is significantly higher in open surgery for acute cholecystitis. Interestingly, the same finding was confirmed after 30 days and 1 year, probably due to comorbidities that are more evident in open surgery.

KEY WORDS

Cholecystitis, Cholelithiasis, Delivery of health care, Disease management, Surgical.

[Cognitive and quality of life trajectory after either surgical or transcatheter aortic valve replacement in high-risk patients]

RATIONALE

The impact of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) on cognitive status and quality of life in high-risk patients has been incompletely investigated.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, multicenter study including all patients treated with TAVI and high-risk patients undergoing AVR (age ≥80 years or logistic EuroSCORE ≥15%) at participating centers. Multidimensional geriatric evaluation including Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), EuroQol 5D (EQ5D) and Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) were performed at baseline and at 3- and 12-month follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 518 patients (151 AVR and 367 TAVI) were enrolled in 10 Italian institutions. Patients receiving AVR were older (82.7 ± 2.4 years), with a lower logistic EuroSCORE (12.5 ± 7.1%) as compared with TAVI patients (81.5 ± 6.2 years and 19.6 ± 14.0%, respectively, p=0.001 and p<0.001). Overall, 35.5% of patients showed some degree of cognitive impairment at baseline, with no differences between groups. No significant changes in the cognitive status were observed between baseline and follow-up and between groups at any time point. TAVI patients had a lower quality of life at baseline as compared with AVR patients. Generic and heart failure-related quality of life improved significantly after either procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk patients, both TAVI and AVR are associated with a significant improvement of quality of life up to 1 year without a detrimental effect on cognitive function.

Gender differences in outcomes following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting: long-term results

Background

The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of gender on outcomes after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting, in terms of 5-year rates of overall death, cardiac-related death, myocardial infarction, re-hospitalization, repeat percutaneous or surgical revascularization, stroke, new pacemaker implantation, postoperative renal failure, heart failure and need for long-term care.

Methods

Two propensity-score matched cohorts, each of 1331 patients, undergoing isolated surgical coronary revascularization at the regional public and private centers of Emilia-Romagna region (Italy) from January 1st 2003 to December 31th 2013, were used to compare long-term outcomes of male (5976 patients) versus female gender (1332 patients).

Results

In the matched cohort, males received significantly more bypass grafts (3.0 ± 1.0 vs 2.8 ± 1.0, p = 0.001). Left internal mammary artery use and total arterial revascularization were similarly performed in both matched subgroups. Both groups reported similar cumulative rate of all-cause, cardiac-related mortality and stroke at five years. Females experienced significantly higher rate of myocardial infarction, and not significantly higher occurrence of heart failure, and need for long-term care. Males experienced significantly higher rate of cumulative re-hospitalization and higher need for pacemaker implantation. Female gender was not an independent predictor of death at long-term follow-up.

Conclusions

Women are more likely to be readmitted with myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure after CABG but experience survival similar to that observed in men. Female gender was not an independent risk factor for mortality. Prevention of new occurrence of postoperative myocardial infarction and enhancement of complete coronary revascularization should be future endpoints.

Long-Term Outcomes of Conventional Aortic Valve Replacement in High-Risk Patients: Where Do We Stand?

PURPOSE

The introduction of transcatheter aortic valves has focused attention on the results of conventional aortic valve surgery in high-risk patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate 5-years outcomes in this category of patients in the current surgical era.

METHODS

This is an observational retrospective study of 581 high-risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement from 2008 to 2013, with a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 26.6% ± 14.6%. Data were prospectively collected in a database of Emilia-Romagna region (Italy).

RESULTS

Overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. Stroke rate was 1.5%. At 1-, 3-, and 5-years overall mortality was 18.2%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, cardiac death rate was 3.9%, 9.2%, and 12.9%, stroke rate 2.5%, 7.7%, and 10.2%, re-operation occurrence 0.2%, 0.9% and 1.3%, and new pacemaker implantation was 2.3%, 5.1% and 7.8%. At multivariate analysis, urgency, hemodynamic instability, LVEF ≤30%, NYHA III-IV, severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), extra-cardiac arteriopathy, cerebrovascular disease, and creatinine >2.0 mg/dL remained independent predictors of 5-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

The results of the current study add weight to the evidence that traditional aortic valve replacement can be performed in high-risk patients with satisfactory 5-year mortality and morbidity. Our study may help to improve decision-making in this category of high-risk patients with aortic valve disease.

Comparison between off- and on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: long-term results of a real-world registry

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare 5-year rates of overall death, cardiac-related death, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, stroke and new occurrence of postoperative renal failure in a large cohort of patients with coronary disease, treated with on- or off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS

Two propensity score-matched cohorts, each of 560 patients, undergoing isolated surgical coronary revascularization at the regional public and private centres of Emilia-Romagna region (Italy) over the period 1 January 2003 - 31 December 2013, were used to compare long-term outcomes of on-pump CABG (6711 patients) and off-pump CABG (597 patients).

RESULTS

The matched on-pump group received significantly more bypass grafts than the matched off-pump group (2.4 ± 1.1 vs 1.6 ± 0.9, P < 0.0001). The on-pump group reported statistically significant lower cardiac-related mortality. There was a trend towards higher overall mortality and the need for repeat revascularization procedures in the off-pump group. No difference was found for myocardial infarction, stroke or new occurrence of postoperative renal failure between groups in the follow-up. The multivariate analysis of significant predictors of mortality in the overall population confirmed that the off-pump revascularization strategy was an independent predictor of death at long-term follow-up. On-pump CABG reported significantly better results in terms of mortality in the subgroups of patients with a depressed left ventricular ejection fraction and in patients with three-vessel disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing elective isolated CABG, on-pump strategy conferred a long-term survival advantage compared with off-pump strategy, particularly for patients with more extensive coronary disease. No benefits were found in terms of reduction of postoperative morbidity with the off-pump strategy. On-pump surgery should be the preferred revascularization technique, and off-pump surgery reserved for patients for whom the perioperative risk of cardiopulmonary bypass is greater than the risk of a less complete coronary revascularization.

Outcomes of patients undergoing concomitant mitral and aortic valve surgery: results from an Italian regional cardiac surgery registry

OBJECTIVES

There are limited reliable data on the long-term survival of patients operated upon with double-valve surgery (DVS) in the literature. In this study, in-hospital mortality and 5-year survival were determined and the potential risk factors for increased mortality were identified and discussed.

METHODS

This is a report of an observational retrospective study of 1167 patients undergoing concomitant aortic and mitral valve surgery from 2002 to 2011. Data were prospectively collected in a regional database from Emilia-Romagna (Italy).

RESULTS

The overall in-hospital mortality rate for DVS was 6.9%. Both in-hospital and 1-year mortality were statistically significant between age groups. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher for patients with a smaller body mass index (BMI), for those who had concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and those who received mitral valve replacement (MVR) instead of plasty (MVP). In-hospital and 1-year mortality were highest in patients ≥70 who had implantation of mitral and aortic mechanical valves. There were significant differences in 5-year follow-up survival according to age, BMI and concomitant CABG. The choice of MVR and MVP did not affect 5-year survival. Multivariable analysis showed that patient-related factors appear to be the major determinant of late survival, irrespective of the type of operation or other intraoperative variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced age, smaller BMI and concomitant CABG are significant risk factors for mortality in DVS. MVP provided comparable 5-year outcomes with MVR. Multivariable analysis demonstrates that preoperative and clinical patient-related factors are the real burden in the successful treatment of patients undergoing double-valve procedures.

Pre-Operative, High-IL-6 Blood Level is a Risk Factor of Post-Operative Delirium Onset in Old Patients

BACKGROUND

Post-operative delirium (POD) is a common complication in elderly patients undergoing surgery, but the underpinning causes are not clear. We hypothesized that inflammaging, the subclinical low and chronic grade inflammation characteristic of old people, can contribute to POD onset. Accordingly, we investigated the association of pre-operative and circulating cytokines in elderly patients (>65 years), admitted for elective and emergency surgery.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a sub-cohort of patients belonging to a previous large case-control study, where 351 patients were clinically and cognitively thoroughly characterized, together with the assessment of POD (47 patients) by confusion assessment method and delirium rating scale. Seventy-four pre-operative plasma samples were selected from a larger bio-bank and they included 37 subjects with POD and 37 without POD. Inflammaging related cytokines, i.e., IL-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and TNF-α, were assayed by ELISA in pre-operative blood samples; univariate and multivariable analyses have been applied to identify cytokines independently associated to POD. Associations of cytokine levels with functional status, cognitive decline, intra-hospital mortality, and comorbidity were also analyzed independently of POD onset.

RESULTS

High IL-6 and low-IL-2 levels were significantly associated with POD. After adjustment for potential confounders in multivariate analysis, high level of pre-operative IL-6 was confirmed to be significantly associated with risk of POD onset. High level of IL-6 was also associated with several baseline features (including poor functional status, cognitive impairment, emergency admission, and higher comorbidity burden) and intra-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

Pre-operative, high-plasma level of IL-6 (≥9 pg/mL) was significantly associated with POD onset. We propose IL-6 as an additional risk factor of POD onset together with the previously identified factors. Discovery of all risk factors contributing to POD onset will permit to improve hospitalized patient management and the decrease of healthcare cost.

Assessment of 126,913 inguinal hernia repairs in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy: analysis of 10 years

PURPOSE

Inguinal hernioplasty could be used as an indicator of the surgical quality offered in different health institutions and countries, thereby establishing a scientific basis from which the procedure can be critically assessed and ultimately improved. Quality assessment of hernioplasties could be conducted using two different methods: either analyzing dedicated regional/national databases (DD) or reviewing administrative databases (AD).

METHODS

A retrospective study of inguinal hernioplasties was carried out in the Emilia-Romagna hospitals between 2000 and 2009. Data were obtained by analyzing Hospital Discharge records regional Databases (HDD). Descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis was performed.

RESULTS

126,913 inguinal hernioplasty procedures were performed. The annual rate was on average 34 per 10,000 inhabitants. An increase of the case mix complexity and relevant changes in procedure technique were recorded. From multivariate analysis, the following independent factors related to a hospitalization longer than 1 day emerged: procedures in urgent setting (OR 3.6, CI 3.4-3.7), Charlson's score ≥2 (OR 3.4, CI 3.1-3.7), laparoscopy (OR 2.1, CI 1.9-2.3), no mesh use (OR 2.1, CI 2-2.3), age >65 years (OR 1.9, CI 1.8-1.9), associated interventions (OR 1.9, CI 1.8-1.9), bilateral hernia (OR 1.7, CI 1.6-1.8), recurrent hernia (OR 1.2, CI 1.1-1.2) and female gender (OR 1.2, CI 1.2-1.3). Factors related to non-prosthetic hernioplasty were: bilateral hernia (OR 2.7, CI 2.5-2.9), female gender (OR 1.8, CI 1.8-2.0), emergency setting (OR 1.6, CI 1.5-1.8), recurrences (OR 1.5, CI 1.4-1.6) and associated interventions (OR 1.5, CI 1.4-1.6).

CONCLUSION

Inguinal hernia should be treated as an outpatient procedure in the majority of patients. Precise guidelines are necessary. HDD demonstrated to be a good and trustworthy system to collect clinical data. When precise guidelines are lacking, legal/institutional indications play a pivotal role in shifting the hernia surgery toward a one-day surgery regimen.

Five-year outcomes of surgical or percutaneous myocardial revascularization in diabetic patients

BACKGROUND

The study compares five-year clinical outcomes of CABG vs PCI in a real world population of diabetic patients with multivessel coronary disease since it is not clear whether to prefer surgical or percutaneous revascularization.

METHODS

Between July 2002 and December 2008, 2885 multivessel coronary diabetic patients underwent revascularization (1466 CABG and 1419 PCI) at hospitals in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy and were followed for 1827 ± 617 days by record linkage of two clinical registries with the regional administrative database of hospital admissions and the mortality registry. Five-year incidences of MACCE (mortality, acute myocardial infarction [AMI], stroke, and repeat revascularization [TVR]) were assessed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, Cox proportional hazards regression and cumulative incidence functions of death and TVR, to evaluate the competing risk of AMI on death and TVR. The same analyses were applied to the propensity score matched subgroup of patients undergoing CABG or PCI with DES and with complete revascularization.

RESULTS

PCI had higher mortality for all causes (HR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.2 p<0.0001), AMI (HR: 3.3, 95% CI 2.4-4.6 p<0.0001) and TVR (HR: 4.5, 95% CI 3.4-6.1 p<0.0001). No significant differences emerged for stroke (HR: 0.8, 95% CI 0.5-1.2 p=0.26). The higher incidence of AMI caused higher mortality in PCI group. Results did not change comparing CABG with PCI patients receiving complete revascularization or DES only.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetics show a higher incidence of MACCE with PCI than with CABG: thus diabetes and its degree of control should be considered when choosing the type of revascularization.

Treatment of human cartilage defects by means of Nd:YAG Laser Therapy

Articular cartilage lesions represent a challenging problem for orthopaedic surgeons. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a new pulsed Nd:YAG High Intensity Laser Therapy on the regeneration of cartilage tissue in patients with traumatic lesions. Clinical, histological and immunohistochemical evaluations were performed. Ten patients affected by chondral lesions scheduled for ACI procedure, were enrolled into the study. During the chondrocyte expansion for ACI procedure, cartilage from five patients was treated by Nd:YAG High Intensity Laser Therapy (HILT group). No laser treatment was performed in the remaining patients, who were used as controls. Cartilage repair was assessed by clinicians using two different scores: Cartilage Repair Assessment (CRA) and Overall Repair Assessment (ORA). Cartilage biopsy specimens were harvested to perform histological and immunohistochemical analyses at T0 (before laser treatment) and T1 (at the end of the treatment). A significant decrease in cartilage depth was noticed in the HILT group at T1. Histological and immunohistochemical evaluations showed some regenerative processes in cartilaginous tissue in terms of high amount of proteoglycans, integration with adjacent articular cartilage and good cellular arrangement in the HILT group. By contrast, a not well organized cartilaginous tissue with various fibrous features in the control group at T0 and T1 was observed. In conclusion, the use of this new pulsed Nd:YAG HILT resulted promising in the treatment of moderate cartilage lesions markedly in the young patients.

[The cost of innovation in treating aortic stenosis: transcatheter aortic valve implantation]

BACKGROUND

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) represents a promising therapeutic option for patients affected by severe aortic stenosis, but it is currently associated with high costs. Therefore, the assessment of its economic impact becomes urgent to support decision-makers' choices about its use, patient access to treatment and reimbursement mechanisms.

METHODS

A retrospective, observational, single-center (the teaching hospital located in Bologna, Italy) study was conducted. All patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI during the enrolment period (February 2008-August 2010) were included. The procedures were performed with both bioprostheses approved for clinical use and through different vascular access: CoreValve transfemoral (CV-TF), CoreValve transsubclavian (CV-TS), Edwards Sapien transapical (ES-TA), Edwards Sapien transfemoral (ES-TF). Costs of the whole index hospitalization have been calculated from the hospital perspective. Healthcare resource consumption was measured at patient level and assessed using unit costs (micro-costing approach).

RESULTS

Overall, 87 consecutive patients (48 CV-TF, 12 CV-TS, 20 ES-TA, 7 ES-TF) were included in the study. They presented a high-risk profile (age 83.3 ± 5.4 years; logistic EuroSCORE 23.3 ± 12.3%) and important comorbidity. In-hospital mortality was 3.4%. Total cost of hospitalization was, on average, €35.841 (range €27.267-69.744) of which 68% was attributable to the procedure. A huge variation in costs was observed among different treatment groups. Patients treated with transfemoral implant (CV-TF: €33.977; ES-TF: €31.442) were on average less expensive than others (CV-TS: €37.035; ES-TA: €41.139).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that treating patients with TAVI places a heavy burden on hospital budget. Hence, due to the shortage of financial resources, affordability of TAVI requires further attention.

Risk factors and incidence of postoperative delirium in elderly patients after elective and emergency surgery

BACKGROUND

: This study evaluated the incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients undergoing general surgery, the risk factors associated with POD, and its impact on hospital stay and mortality.

METHODS

: Patients aged over 65 years who had emergency or elective operations were eligible for this case-control study. Risk factors significantly associated with POD using univariable analysis were entered into multivariable analysis, to establish those independently associated with POD.

RESULTS

: A total of 351 patients (357 admissions) were enrolled in the study. The incidence of POD was 13.2 per cent (17.9 per cent for emergency operations). Independent variables associated with POD were: age above 75 years, co-morbidity, preoperative cognitive impairment, psychopathological symptoms and abnormal glycaemic control. Median length of hospital stay was 21 (range 1-75) days for patients with POD versus 8 (range 1-79) days for control patients (P < 0.001). The hospital mortality rate was 19 and 8.4 per cent respectively (P = 0.021).

CONCLUSION

: The incidence of POD is high in elderly patients for both emergency and elective surgery, leading to an increase in hospital stay and perioperative mortality. To minimize POD, associated risk factors of co-morbidity, cognitive impairment, psychopathology and abnormal glycaemic control must be identified and treated.

Assessing clinical performance in cardiac surgery. Does a specialised clinical database make a difference?

We compared mortality rates league tables for six cardiac surgery centres developed using an administrative database (integrated with information on patients' EuroSCORE) with those drawn from a specialised clinical database. Data from 4017 patients undergoing cardiac surgery over the period January 1st-December 31st 2003, and identified both databases were used. Case mix adjusted in-hospital mortality rates were estimated relying on information provided by each database, and league tables were drawn from both. The correlation between the two league tables was assessed through the Spearman correlation coefficient. League tables drawn from the two sources identified the same 'best' and 'worst' centres and the Spearman correlation coefficient confirmed a high level of agreement between the two rankings (r=0.89; P<0.02). Use of the logistic EuroSCORE instead of the additive one did not change the results. An administrative and a clinical specialised database provided similar league tables. However, this finding by no means implies that clinical databases should be abandoned. While administrative data allow a more efficient performance assessment, clinical databases may more properly satisfy the legitimate demand of surgical staff of being directly involved in quality monitoring, rather than being mere passive objects of external assessment.

Impact of regionalisation of cardiac surgery in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Assessment of the impact of the regionalisation of cardiac surgery through the organisational form of a hub&spoke model introduced in the year 2000.

DESIGN

Case mix adjusted before (1998-1999)-after (2000-2002) comparison of: (a) in-hospital and 30 days mortality rates; (b) proportion of patients timely (within one day) referred for surgery from spoke to hub centres; (c) patients' waiting times to surgery.

SETTING

Emilia-Romagna, an Italian region with four million residents.

PATIENTS

16,512 patients aged > or =18 years and referred to cardiac surgery over the period 1998-2002.

MAIN RESULTS

Overall, taking into account differences in case mix across the whole study period, the implementation of the regionalisation policy was associated with a 22% reduction (OR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.66 to 0.93) in in-hospital mortality rate. The corresponding figure for 30 day mortality was 18% (OR: 0.82: 95%CI: 0.69 to 0.98). The individual centres' volume of cases changed over the study period for all hospitals but two, and the biggest reduction in mortality was seen at the centre with the largest increase in caseload.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides additional evidence on the benefit of regionalisation of cardiac surgery interventions. The system allowed each centre to reach the minimum caseload required to assure good quality of care. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing cooperation rather than competition among health service providers have a positive impact on quality of care. Timely referrals for surgery increased by 21% (95%CI: 1.12 to 1.31), and mean waiting times were reduced by 7.5 average days (95%CI: -10.33 to -4.71).

[Prevalence and prevention and treatment modalities for pressure sores. Study of the Emilia-Romagna region]

This audit initiative aimed at assessing the prevalence of pressure sores in the public hospitals of Emilia-Romagna, and at monitoring the rate of use of specific modalities of prevention and cure. The design was cross-sectional, with information collected on three index days during 2000 by trained personnel. Overall, the prevalence of pressure sores at the regional level was 7.1%, with remarkable variation across hospitals (from 2.9% to 9.7%), also after adjustment for case mix. As for patterns of prevention and cure, 74% of patients at risk (according to the Braden scale) of developing a pressure sores received only standard low technology devices, and 50% of those in need were included in a systematic programme of postural change. Adequate (according to the available evidence) medications were used in 45% of patients with a pressure sore. The overall prevalence of pressure sore is close (or even inferior) to that observed in similar studies. However, variation between hospitals indicates that the current health services ability to deal with pressure sore is variable and often suboptimal. This evaluation is also supported by the limited adoption of adequate preventive and curative modalities.

Immunohistochemical study of lymphocyte populations infiltrating the gastric mucosa of beagle dogs experimentally infected with Helicobacter pylori

Experimental infection of beagle dogs with Helicobacter pylori induces recruitment to the gastric mucosae of neutrophils at early stages and later of mononuclear cells that organize into lymphoid follicles. These structures become macroscopically evident and consist of peripheral CD4(+) T lymphocytes and central CD21(+) B lymphocytes. Furthermore, transient expression of interleukin-8 (IL-8) parallels the presence of neutrophils in the gastric mucosae, whereas expression of IL-6 tends to persist chronically.

A conventional beagle dog model for acute and chronic infection with Helicobacter pylori

Helicobacter pylori has been widely recognized as an important human pathogen responsible for chronic gastritis, peptic ulcers, gastric cancer, and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma. Little is known about the natural history of this infection since patients are usually recognized as having the infection only after years or decades of chronic disease. Several animal models of H. pylori infection, including those with different species of rodents, nonhuman primates, and germ-free animals, have been developed. Here we describe a new animal model in which the clinical, pathological, microbiological, and immunological aspects of human acute and chronic infection are mimicked and which allows us to monitor these aspects of infection within the same individuals. Conventional Beagle dogs were infected orally with a mouse-adapted strain of H. pylori and monitored for up to 24 weeks. Acute infection caused vomiting and diarrhea. The acute phase was followed by polymorphonuclear cell infiltration, interleukin 8 induction, mononuclear cell recruitment, and the appearance of a specific antibody response against H. pylori. The chronic phase was characterized by gastritis, epithelial alterations, superficial erosions, and the appearance of the typical macroscopic follicles that in humans are considered possible precursors of MALT lymphoma. In conclusion, infection in this model mimics closely human infection and allows us to study those phases that cannot be studied in humans. This new model can be a unique tool for learning more about the disease and for developing strategies for treatment and prevention.