Inpatient midwifery staffing levels and postpartum readmissions: a retrospective multicentre longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Preventing readmission to hospital after giving birth is a key priority, as rates have been rising along with associated costs. There are many contributing factors to readmission, and some are thought to be preventable. Nurse and midwife understaffing has been linked to deficits in care quality. This study explores the relationship between staffing levels and readmission rates in maternity settings.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study using routinely collected individual patient data in three maternity services in England from 2015 to 2020. Data on admissions, discharges and case-mix were extracted from hospital administration systems. Staffing and workload were calculated in Hours Per Patient day per shift in the first two 12-hour shifts of the index (birth) admission. Postpartum readmissions and staffing exposures for all birthing admissions were entered into a hierarchical multivariable logistic regression model to estimate the odds of readmission when staffing was below the mean level for the maternity service.

RESULTS

64 250 maternal admissions resulted in birth and 2903 mothers were readmitted within 30 days of discharge (4.5%). Absolute levels of staffing ranged between 2.3 and 4.1 individuals per midwife in the three services. Below average midwifery staffing was associated with higher rates of postpartum readmissions within 7 days of discharge (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.108, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.223). The effect was smaller and not statistically significant for readmissions within 30 days of discharge (aOR 1.080, 95% CI 0.994 to 1.174). Below average maternity assistant staffing was associated with lower rates of postpartum readmissions (7 days, aOR 0.957, 95% CI 0.867 to 1.057; 30 days aOR 0.965, 95% CI 0.887 to 1.049, both not statistically significant).

CONCLUSION

We found evidence that lower than expected midwifery staffing levels is associated with more postpartum readmissions. The nature of the relationship requires further investigation including examining potential mediating factors and reasons for readmission in maternity populations.

Staffing levels and hospital mortality in England: a national panel study using routinely collected data

OBJECTIVES

Examine the association between multiple clinical staff levels and case-mix adjusted patient mortality in English hospitals. Most studies investigating the association between hospital staffing levels and mortality have focused on single professional groups, in particular nursing. However, single staff group studies might overestimate effects or neglect important contributions to patient safety from other staff groups.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study of routinely available data.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

138 National Health Service hospital trusts that provided general acute adult services in England between 2015 and 2019.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Standardised mortality rates were derived from the Summary Hospital level Mortality Indicator data set, with observed deaths as outcome in our models and expected deaths as offset. Staffing levels were calculated as the ratio of occupied beds per staff group. We developed negative binomial random-effects models with trust as random effects.

RESULTS

Hospitals with lower levels of medical and allied healthcare professional (AHP) staff (e.g, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, radiography, speech and language therapy) had significantly higher mortality rates (rate ratio: 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06, and 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06, respectively), while those with lower support staff had lower mortality rates (0.85, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.91 for nurse support, and 1.00, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.00 for AHP support). Estimates of the association between staffing levels and mortality were stronger between-hospitals than within-hospitals, which were not statistically significant in a within-between random effects model.

CONCLUSIONS

In additional to medicine and nursing, AHP staffing levels may influence hospital mortality rates. Considering multiple staff groups simultaneously when examining the association between hospital mortality and clinical staffing levels is crucial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04374812.

Psychological distress experienced by parents caring for an immunosuppressed child during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved unique in both its unpredictability and the extent to which it has continued to impact on daily life since March 2020. Among the immunosuppressed population the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic are cumulative to the ever-present challenges of living with a long-term condition. This prospective longitudinal study explored patterns of concern experienced by 467 British parents caring for an immunosuppressed child during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic and related this to parental mental wellbeing. Most parents slowly adapted or were resilient to the ever-changing stressors of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, 12% experienced high levels of concern throughout the first 2 years of the pandemic. This group was also more likely to report emotional mental health problems towards the end of this period. The experience of emotional mental health problems among parents caring for an immunosuppressed child was related to low household income, single parenting, difficult access to greenspace, and higher level of exposure to COVID positive cases and COVID restrictions (North of England). Parents reported that optimism, reduction of isolation, and support promoted coping and management of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. More reliable COVID information and periodic medical-condition-specific guidance would have been appreciated. These findings can increase clinical awareness of high-risk parental groups and make an important contribution to the planning of appropriate targeted psychological family interventions.

Experiences and support needs of parents/caregivers of children with cancer through the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the experiences, information and support needs of parents/caregivers of children with cancer and how these changed as the COVID-19 pandemic evolved.

DESIGN

Online surveys containing closed and free-text questions on experiences, information and support needs were completed at four time points (between April 2020 and October 2021) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive statistics of closed items and content analysis of qualitative data were conducted.

SETTING

Online.

PARTICIPANTS

Parents/caregivers of children with cancer.

RESULTS

335 parents/caregivers completed the survey over four time points. Findings revealed that parents'/caregivers' worry about the virus and vigilance about their child's virus symptoms decreased over time. Parents reporting the need for support on how to reduce their worries and/or family members during the virus outbreak were low, however parents reported a slight increase in need for support at T3 when schools reopened. Qualitative findings reported the following themes: (1) Psychological well-being of parents/caregivers, (2) Changing perceptions of risks/priorities, (3) Adjusting to COVID-19: Living with continued caution, (4) Healthcare and treatment provision, (5) Information seeking and needs during COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted people's lives and routines in relation to access to support, finances, education and social lives, leading to psychological distress. Parents highlighted the need for timely, up-to-date and personalised information in relation to COVID-19 and their child with cancer. Further consideration of the development of technology-based health solutions may provide an efficient and safe way to connect with and support parent/caregivers.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prescription refills for immune-mediated inflammatory disorders: a time series analysis (January 2019 to January 2021) using the English Prescribing Dataset

OBJECTIVE

To investigate monthly prescription refills for common immunosuppressive/immunomodulatory therapy (sulfasalazine, hydroxychloroquine, azathioprine, methotrexate, leflunomide) prescriptions in England during the complete first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary analysis examined unit cost analysis and regional use.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A national cohort of community-based, primary care patients who anonymously contribute data to the English Prescribing Dataset, dispensed in the community in England, were included. Descriptive statistics and interrupted time series analysis over 25 months (14 months before, 11 months after first lockdown) were evaluated (January 2019 to January 2021, with March 2020 as the cut-off point).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Prescription reimbursement variance in period before the pandemic as compared with after the first lockdown.

RESULTS

Fluctuation in monthly medicines use is noted in March 2020: a jump is observed for hydroxychloroquine (Mann-Whitney, SE 14.652, standardised test statistic 1.911, p value=0.059) over the study period. After the first lockdown, medicines use fluctuated, with wide confidence intervals. Unit-cost prices changed substantially: sulfasalazine 33% increase, hydroxychloroquine 98% increase, azathioprine 41% increase, methotrexate 41% increase, leflunomide 20% decrease. London showed the least quantity variance, suggesting more homogeneous prescribing and patient access compared with Midlands and East of England, suggesting that some patients may have received medication over/under requirement, representing potential resource misallocation and a proxy for adherence rates. Changepoint detection revealed four out of the five medicines' use patterns changed with a strong signal only for sulfasalazine in March/April 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings potentially present lower rates of adherence because of the pandemic, suggesting barriers to care access. Unit price increases are likely to have severe budget impacts in the UK and potentially globally. Timely prescription refills for patients taking immunosuppressive/immunomodulatory therapies are recommended. Healthcare professionals should identify patients on these medicines and assess their prescription-day coverage, with planned actions to flag and follow-up adherence concerns in patients.

Parental concern for clinically vulnerable child during first 18 months of the COVID pandemic

BACKGROUND

The uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic have been associated with increased parental concern. The aim of this study is to explore if this increased level of concern is associated with certain individual/household characteristics or if parents adapted to the ever-changing realities of the COVID-19 pandemic over time.

METHODS

This prospective study explored COVID-19 concern trajectories and associated family characteristics of 765 UK parents caring for an immunosuppressed child during the first 18 months of the pandemic using growth mixture modelling. Qualitative analysis was performed to examine in more detail the source of concern.

RESULTS

Four different trajectories of parental COVID-19 concern were identified. Ongoing very high concern was associated with caring for children with nephrotic or respiratory disease; having a child on an organ transplant waiting list; residency in the North of England; or parental vocational inactivity. Explicit concerns voiced by the parents generally followed national trends, but vulnerable status specific concerns were also reported.

CONCLUSION

Diagnosis and prescribed medication of the immunosuppressed child, geographical location, household composition, and employment status of parent were associated with the different concern trajectories. This information can be helpful in targeting psychological family care where it is most needed.

IMPACT

Many British parents caring for a clinically vulnerable child during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic showed high levels of concern with little sign of psychological adaptation. Consistent with findings from non-vulnerable populations, parents mentioned the impact of shielding and repeated isolation on their child's education, social life, and mental health. Unique to the clinically vulnerable population, parents were worried about child's health status, impact of delayed healthcare, and were confused by the contradictory information received from government, doctors, and media. Psychological family care can be targeted to those parents at greater risk for high levels of concern.

Exploring the relationship between women’s experience of postnatal care and reported staffing measures: An observational study

Background

Women have reported dissatisfaction with care received on postnatal wards and this area has been highlighted for improvement. Studies have shown an association between midwifery staffing levels and postnatal care experiences, but so far, the influence of registered and support staff deployed in postnatal wards has not been studied. This work is timely as the number of support workers has increased in the workforce and there has been little research on skill mix to date.

Methods

Cross sectional secondary analysis including 13,264 women from 123 postnatal wards within 93 hospital Trusts. Staffing was measured in each organisation as Full Time Equivalent staff employed per 100 births, and on postnatal wards, using Hours Per Patient Day. Women’s experiences were assessed using four items from the 2019 national maternity survey. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to examine relationships and adjust for maternal age, parity, ethnicity, type of birth, and medical staff.

Results

Trusts with higher levels of midwifery staffing had higher rates of women reporting positive experiences of postnatal care. However, looking at staffing on postnatal wards, there was no evidence of an association between registered nurses and midwives hours per patient day and patient experience. Wards with higher levels of support worker staffing were associated with higher rates of women reporting they had help when they needed it and were treated with kindness and understanding.

Conclusion

The relationship between reported registered staffing levels on postnatal wards and women’s experience is uncertain. Further work should be carried out to examine why relationships observed using whole Trust staffing were not replicated closer to the patient, with reported postnatal ward staffing. It is possible that recorded staffing levels on postnatal wards do not actually reflect staff deployment if midwives are floated to cover delivery units. This study highlights the potential contribution of support workers in providing quality care on postnatal wards.

Risk of Early Versus Later Rebleeding From Dural Arteriovenous Fistulas With Cortical Venous Drainage

BACKGROUND

Cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas with cortical venous drainage are rare lesions that can present with hemorrhage. A high rate of rebleeding in the early period following hemorrhage has been reported, but published long-term rates are much lower. No study has examined how risk of rebleeding changes over time. Our objective was to quantify the relative incidence of rebleeding in the early and later periods following hemorrhage.

METHODS

Patients with dural arteriovenous fistula and cortical venous drainage presenting with hemorrhage were identified from the multinational CONDOR (Consortium for Dural Fistula Outcomes Research) database. Natural history follow-up was defined as time from hemorrhage to first treatment, rebleed, or last follow-up. Rebleeding in the first 2 weeks and first year were compared using incidence rate ratio and difference.

RESULTS

Of 1077 patients, 250 met the inclusion criteria and had 95 cumulative person-years natural history follow-up. The overall annualized rebleed rate was 7.3% (95% CI, 3.2-14.5). The incidence rate of rebleeding in the first 2 weeks was 0.0011 per person-day; an early rebleed risk of 1.6% in the first 14 days (95% CI, 0.3-5.1). For the remainder of the first year, the incidence rate was 0.00015 per person-day; a rebleed rate of 5.3% (CI, 1.7-12.4) over 1 year. The incidence rate ratio was 7.3 (95% CI, 1.4-37.7; P, 0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of rebleeding of a dural arteriovenous fistula with cortical venous drainage presenting with hemorrhage is increased in the first 2 weeks justifying early treatment. However, the magnitude of this increase may be considerably lower than previously thought. Treatment within 5 days was associated with a low rate of rebleeding and appears an appropriate timeframe.

Survival of primary ankle replacements: data from global joint registries

BACKGROUND

Ankle arthroplasty, commonly known as ankle replacement, is a surgical procedure for treating end-stage ankle osteoarthritis. Whilst evidence shows good clinical results after surgery, little is known of the long-term survival of ankle replacements and the need for ankle revision. Using more recent implant data and long-term data, there is now opportunity to examine at a population-level the survival rate for ankle implants, to examine between-country differences in ankle revision surgery, and to compare temporal trends in revision rates between countries.

METHODS

Four national joint registries from Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden provided the necessary data on revision outcome following primary ankle replacement, for various periods of observation - the earliest starting in 1993 up to the end of 2019. Data were either acquired from published, online annual reports or were provided from direct contact with the joint registries. The key information extracted were Kaplan-Meier estimates to plot survival probability curves following primary ankle replacement.

RESULTS

The survival rates varied between countries. At 2 years, across all registries, survival rates all exceeded 0.9 (range 0.91 to 0.97). The variation widened at 5 years (range 0.80 to 0.91), at 10 years (range 0.66 to 0.84) and further at 15-years follow-up (0.56 to 0.78). At each time point, implant survival was greater in Australia and New Zealand with lower rates in Sweden and Norway.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed variation in primary ankle replacement survival rates across these national registries, although even after 5 years, these population derived data show an 80% revision free survival. These data raise a number of hypotheses concerning the reasons for between-country differences in revision-free survival which will require access to primary data for analysis.

Trends in the Utilization of Ankle Replacements: Data From Worldwide National Joint Registries

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, there has been a growth in the use of ankle replacements. Data from national joint registries have shown between-country differences in the utilization of ankle replacement. The reasons for these differences are, however, not well understood. Our aims were to describe and compare the annual incidence of primary ankle replacement between countries and, to examine potential reasons for variation over time.

METHODS

We used aggregate data and summary statistics on ankle replacements for the period 1993 to 2019 from national joint replacement registries in Australia, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. From the annual recorded counts of procedures, demographic data were extracted on age, sex distribution, and indication(s) for primary ankle replacement. Registry-level summary results were also obtained on data completeness, counts of hospitals/units, and health care providers performing ankle replacements annually and data collection processes (mandatory vs voluntary). Annual ankle replacement incidence for all diagnoses and, by indication categories (osteoarthritis [OA] and rheumatoid arthritis [RA]), were calculated per 100 000 residential population aged ≥18 years.

RESULTS

For the period with data from all 6 countries (2010-2015), New Zealand had the largest annual incidence (mean ± SD) of 3.3 ± 0.2 ankle replacement procedures per 100 000 population whereas Finland had the lowest incidence (0.92 replacements). There were no common temporal trends in the utilization of ankle replacements. Over the years studied, OA was the predominant diagnosis in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, whereas RA was the most common indication in Scandinavia.

CONCLUSION

In these 6 countries, we found marked differences in the utilization of ankle replacements. Registry-related factors including data completeness and the number of hospitals/surgeons performing ankle replacements are likely to contribute to the observed between-country differences and need to be carefully considered when interpreting comparisons for this less common site for joint replacement surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, retrospective study.

COVID-19: Impact, experiences, and support needs of children and young adults with cystic fibrosis and parents

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of COVID-19 and the United Kingdom's (UK) national shielding advice on people with cystic fibrosis (CF) and their families. This study explored the experiences and support needs of children and young adults (CYAs) with CF, and parents who have a child with CF, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

CYAs with CF and parents of CYAs with CF completed a UK wide online survey with open and closed questions exploring experiences, information and support needs and decision-making processes. Qualitative thematic content analysis and descriptive quantitative analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

CYAs aged 10-30 years (n = 99) and parents of CYAs aged 0-34 years (n = 145) responded. Parents (72.7%) and CYAs (50.0%) worried about the virus, and both were vigilant for virus symptoms (82.7% and 79.7%). Over three-quarters of CYAs were worried about their own health if they caught the virus. CYAs worried about feeling more isolated during the virus (64.9%). Qualitative findings reported the following themes: (1) Disruption-caused by isolation, (2) impact on psychological wellbeing, (3) safety of shielding, and (4) healthcare and treatment provision-changes to care, access and support.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of COVID-19 and UK shielding advice to have no contact with anyone outside the household caused disruption to the lives and routines of individuals in relation to work, education, social lives, relationships, CF management routines and support. Parents and CYAs highlighted the need for clear, up-to-date and tailored advice on individualized risks and shielding.

COVID-19 lockdown disrupts support networks integral to maintaining foot health: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, populations were advised to remain at home to control viral spread. Government-mandated restrictions on free movement affected individuals' engagement with physical activity, with reported increases leading to biopsychosocial health benefits and conversely increased sedentary behaviour leading to poorer health. Good foot health is key to enabling physical activity and maximal participation in activities of occupation and daily living.

METHODS

A population-based cross-sectional study was performed, using a web-based platform. Quantitative and qualitative data were captured through responses to closed and open survey questions. Anybody with a foot health condition was eligible to participate in the online survey. Links were sent through professional networks, support groups and charities, using a snowball strategy to maximise participation.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-five respondents completed the survey. Most (n = 193, 75.69%) reported an ongoing foot pain or problem that had been present for 4 weeks or longer, whilst 49 respondents (19.22%) noted a new pain or problem. Pain was the most frequently reported symptom (n = 139, 54.51%), whilst change in appearance of the foot was also commonly reported (n = 122, 47.84%), often alongside the observable presence of swelling. Musculoskeletal foot symptoms were frequently reported (n = 123, 48%), and were significantly associated with reported reduced physical activity (X2 = 6.61, p = 0.010). Following qualitative analysis five themes and 11 subthemes emerged, informed by 49 independent codes. A central theme of lockdown disrupting support networks, both formal (healthcare providers) and informal (friends or family members) emerged. The 5 sub-themes were: 1. foot pain is a constant companion, 2. self-care, 3. 'cope or crumble' scenarios, 4. future intent to access healthcare and 5. reduced ability to undertake physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Pain was the most frequently reported foot problem during COVID-19 lockdown restriction. Lockdown restrictions disrupted support networks integral to maintaining foot health. Poor foot health impacted people's ability to remain physically active. Complaints previously considered relatively 'minor' such as support for skin and nail care, were found to be exacerbated by restricted support networks, leading to greater negative impact.

Living with Long term condition Scale: A pilot validation study of a new person centred tool in the UK

AIM

To cross-culturally adapt and determine the preliminary psychometric properties of the English version of the LwLTC Scale in people living with long-term conditions in the UK.

DESIGN

Cross-cultural adaptation and cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Forty-nine patients with five long-term conditions were included in the pilot study. Patients completed the English version of the LwLTC Scale and a bespoke questionnaire related to the scale. Feasibility/acceptability, internal consistency and construct validity were analysed.

RESULTS

59.2% of participants were female, with an average age of 65.9 (SD = 12.30). Cronbach's alpha coefficient ranged between 0.50 and 0.84. Content validity showed that the English version of the LwLTC Scale was useful even negative items were identified.

CONCLUSION

These preliminary psychometric properties are satisfactory and promising. Further psychometric analyses are needed to verify them in a larger and more representative sample size during the main validation study, which is now in process.

The association between ward staffing levels, mortality and hospital readmission in older hospitalised adults, according to presence of cognitive impairment: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Lower nurse staffing levels are associated with increased hospital mortality. Older patients with cognitive impairments (CI) have higher mortality rates than similar patients without CI and may be additionally vulnerable to low staffing.

OBJECTIVES

To explore associations between registered nurse (RN) and nursing assistant (NA) staffing levels, mortality and readmission in older patients admitted to general medical/surgical wards.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

All unscheduled admissions to an English hospital of people aged ≥75 with cognitive screening over 14 months.

MEASURES

The exposure was defined as deviation in staffing hours from the ward daily mean, averaged across the patient stay. Outcomes were mortality in hospital/within 30 days of discharge and 30-day re-admission. Analyses were stratified by CI.

RESULTS

12,544 admissions were included. Patients with CI (33.2%) were exposed to similar levels of staffing as those without. An additional 0.5 RN hours per day was associated with 10% reduction in the odds of death overall (odds ratio 0.90 [95% CI 0.84-0.97]): 15% in patients with CI (OR 0.85 [0.74-0.98]) and 7% in patients without (OR 0.93 [0.85-1.02]). An additional 0.5 NA hours per day was associated with a 15% increase in mortality in patients with no impairment. Readmissions decreased by 6% for an additional 0.5 RN hours in patients with CI.

CONCLUSIONS

Although exposure to low staffing was similar, the impact on mortality and readmission for patients with CI was greater. Increased mortality with higher NA staffing in patients without CI needs exploration.

Specialist respiratory outreach: a case-finding initiative for identifying undiagnosed COPD in primary care

COPD remains largely undiagnosed or is diagnosed late in the course of disease. We report findings of a specialist outreach programme to identify undiagnosed COPD in primary care. An electronic case-finding algorithm identified 1602 at-risk patients from 12 practices who were invited to attend the clinic. Three hundred and eighty-three (23.9%) responded and 288 were enrolled into the study. Forty-eight (16.6%) had undiagnosed mild and 28 (9.7%) had moderate airway obstruction, meeting spirometric diagnostic criteria for COPD. However, at 12 months only 8 suspected COPD patients (10.6%) had received a diagnostic label in their primary care record. This constituted 0.38% of the total patient population, as compared with 0.31% of control practices, p = 0.306. However, if all patients with airway obstruction received a coding of COPD, then the diagnosis rate in the intervention group would have risen by 0.84%. Despite the low take-up and diagnostic yield, this programme suggests that integrated case-finding strategies could improve COPD recognition.

COVID-19 and children with cancer: Parents' experiences, anxieties and support needs

BACKGROUND

Children with cancer were designated as clinically extremely vulnerable if they were to contract SARS-CoV-2 due to immune suppression in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to explore experiences, information and support needs, and decision making of parents with a child with cancer in response to this phase in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Parents of a child with cancer completed a survey at a time when the UK moved into a period of 'lockdown'. An online survey was developed by the research team to capture parents' experiences, information and support needs, and decision making, using closed statements and open text boxes. Descriptive quantitative analyses and qualitative thematic content analysis were undertaken.

FINDINGS

One hundred seventy-one parents/caregivers completed the survey. Eighty-five percent were worried about the virus and they were vigilant about the virus (92%) or cancer symptoms (93.4%). For two-thirds (69.6%), hospital was no longer considered a safe place. Eight overarching themes were identified related to the virus: (a) risk of infection; (b) information, guidance and advice; (c) health care provision; (d) fears and anxieties; or related to lockdown/isolation: (e) psychological and social impact; (f) keeping safe under lockdown; (g) provisions and dependence; and (h) employment and income.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to report experiences of parents of a child with cancer during the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. The majority of parents were worried about SARS-CoV-2 and transmitting the virus to their child. Hospital was no longer perceived to be a safe place, and parents were worried about suboptimal cancer care. Parents described fear and anxiety and the psychological, social and economic impact of isolation.

COVID-19: experiences of lockdown and support needs in children and young adults with kidney conditions

BACKGROUND

During the initial COVID-19 pandemic, young United Kingdom (UK) kidney patients underwent lockdown and those with increased vulnerabilities socially isolated or 'shielded' at home. The experiences, information needs, decision-making and support needs of children and young adult (CYA) patients or their parents during this period is not well known.

METHODS

A UK-wide online survey co-produced with patients was conducted in May 2020 amongst CYA aged 12-30, or parents of children aged < 18 years with any long-term kidney condition. Participants answered qualitative open text alongside quantitative closed questions. Thematic content analysis using a three-stage coding process was conducted.

RESULTS

One-hundred and eighteen CYA (median age 21) and 197 parents of children (median age 10) responded. Predominant concerns from CYA were heightened vigilance about viral (68%) and kidney symptoms (77%) and detrimental impact on education or work opportunities (70%). Parents feared the virus more than CYA (71% vs. 40%), and had concerns that their child would catch the virus from them (64%) and would have an adverse impact on other children at home (65%). CYA thematic analysis revealed strong belief of becoming seriously ill if they contracted COVID-19; lost educational opportunities, socialisation and career development; and frustration with the public for not following social distancing rules. Positive outcomes included improved family relationships and community cohesion. Only a minority (14-21% CYA and 20-31% parents, merged questions) desired more support. Subgroup analysis identified greater negative psychological impact in the shielded group.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey demonstrates substantial concern and need for accurate tailored advice for CYA based on individualised risks to improve shared decision making.

A randomised controlled feasibility trial of E-health application supported care vs usual care after exacerbation of COPD: the RESCUE trial

Exacerbations of COPD are one of the commonest causes of admission and readmission to hospital. The role of digital interventions to support self-management in improving outcomes is uncertain. We conducted an open, randomised controlled trial of a digital health platform application (app) in 41 COPD patients recruited following hospital admission with an acute exacerbation. Subjects were randomised to either receive usual care, including a written self-management plan (n = 21), or the myCOPD app (n = 20) for 90 days. The primary efficacy outcome was recovery rate of symptoms measured by COPD assessment test (CAT) score. Exacerbations, readmission, inhaler technique quality of life and patient activation (PAM) scores were also captured by a blinded team. The app was acceptable in this care setting and was used by 17 of the 20 patients with sustained use over the study period. The treatment effect on the CAT score was 4.49 (95% CI: -8.41, -0.58) points lower in the myCOPD arm. Patients' inhaler technique improved in the digital intervention arm (101 improving to 20 critical errors) compared to usual care (100 to 72 critical errors). Exacerbations tended to be less frequent in the digital arm compared to usual care; 34 vs 18 events. Hospital readmissions risk was numerically lower in the digital intervention arm: OR for readmission 0.383 (95% CI: 0.074, 1.987; n = 35). In this feasibility study of the digital self-management platform myCOPD, the app has proven acceptable to patients to use and use has improved exacerbation recovery rates, with strong signals of lower re-exacerbation and readmission rates over 90 days. myCOPD reduced the number of critical errors in inhaler technique compared to usual care with written self-management. This provides a strong basis for further exploration of the use of app interventions in the context of recently hospitalised patients with COPD and informs the potential design of a large multi-centre trial.

Self-management approaches to reduce the ill-health burden associated with musculoskeletal foot and ankle problems: A scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

The high ill-health burden associated with musculoskeletal (MSK) disease has been widely reported, and various treatment approaches proposed. Increasingly, treatments have sought to reflect personalised care and incorporate self-management (SM). However, the range of SM approaches proposed for foot and ankle MSK problems, and their relative clinical or cost-effectiveness, has not been reviewed. A scoping review is required to understand the need/appropriateness of a systematic review on this topic.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The scoping review will be conducted in line with the PRISMA-ScR framework. We will perform an initial search across two databases to confirm search syntax. We will then complete a full search across three databases (Embase [Ovid], CINAHL [EBSCO], and Medline [EBSCO]) and grey literature (Cochrane Library, The British Library, The Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health [CADTH], The Health Foundation, The Kings Fund, and MedNar). We will use a snowballing strategy to review the reference list of retrieved texts, as per inclusion criteria, to identify previously unretrieved texts of potential relevance. In an iterative process, the protocol outlined above will be refined and repeated as new key terms come to light.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The scoping review will synthesise what is known and not known about SM approaches for MSK foot and ankle problems. The review will form the first step in outlining future research recommendations and areas of potentially unmet clinical need. The findings will be submitted for publication and shared in written form with stakeholder groups involved in the design of future research.

Performance of the Safer Nursing Care Tool to measure nurse staffing requirements in acute hospitals: a multicentre observational study

OBJECTIVES

The best way to determine nurse staffing requirements on hospital wards is unclear. This study explores the precision of estimates of nurse staffing requirements made using the Safer Nursing Care Tool (SNCT) patient classification system for different sample sizes and investigates whether recommended staff levels correspond with professional judgements of adequate staffing.

DESIGN

Observational study linking datasets of staffing requirements (estimated using a tool) to professional judgements of adequate staffing. Multilevel logistic regression modelling.

SETTING

81 medical/surgical units in four acute care hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

22 364 unit days where staffing levels and SNCT ratings were linked to nurse reports of "enough staff for quality".

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

SNCT-estimated staffing requirements and nurses' assessments of staffing adequacy.

RESULTS

The recommended minimum sample of 20 days allowed the required number to employ (the establishment) to be estimated with a mean precision (defined as half the width of the CI as a percentage of the mean) of 4.1%. For most units, much larger samples were required to estimate establishments within ±1 whole time equivalent staff member. When staffing was lower than that required according to the SNCT, for each hour per patient day of registered nurse staffing below the required staffing level, the odds of nurses reporting that there were enough staff to provide quality care were reduced by 11%. Correspondingly, the odds of nurses reporting that necessary nursing care was left undone were increased by 14%. No threshold indicating an optimal staffing level was observed. Surgical specialty, patient turnover and more single rooms were associated with lower odds of staffing adequacy.

CONCLUSIONS

The SNCT can provide reliable estimates of the number of nurses to employ on a unit, but larger samples than the recommended minimum are usually required. The SNCT provides a measure of nursing workload that correlates with professional judgements, but the recommended staffing levels may not be optimal. Some important sources of systematic variations in staffing requirements for some units are not accounted for. SNCT measurements are a potentially useful adjunct to professional judgement but cannot replace it.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN12307968.

Primary care risk stratification in COPD using routinely collected data: a secondary data analysis

Most clinical contacts with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients take place in primary care, presenting opportunity for proactive clinical management. Electronic health records could be used to risk stratify diagnosed patients in this setting, but may be limited by poor data quality or completeness. We developed a risk stratification database algorithm using the DOSE index (Dyspnoea, Obstruction, Smoking and Exacerbation) with routinely collected primary care data, aiming to calculate up to three repeated risk scores per patient over five years, each separated by at least one year. Among 10,393 patients with diagnosed COPD, sufficient primary care data were present to calculate at least one risk score for 77.4%, and the maximum of three risk scores for 50.6%. Linked secondary care data revealed primary care under-recording of hospital exacerbations, which translated to a slight, non-significant cohort average risk score reduction, and an understated risk group allocation for less than 1% of patients. Algorithmic calculation of the DOSE index is possible using primary care data, and appears robust to the absence of linked secondary care data, if unavailable. The DOSE index appears a simple and practical means of incorporating risk stratification into the routine primary care of COPD patients, but further research is needed to evaluate its clinical utility in this setting. Although secondary analysis of routinely collected primary care data could benefit clinicians, patients and the health system, standardised data collection and improved data quality and completeness are also needed.

Opioid use, postoperative complications, and implant survival after unicompartmental versus total knee replacement: a population-based network study

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty around whether to use unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) or total knee replacement (TKR) for individuals with osteoarthritis confined to a single compartment of the knee. We aimed to emulate the design of the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT) using routinely collected data to assess whether the efficacy results reported in the trial translate into effectiveness in routine practice, and to assess comparative safety.

METHODS

We did a population-based network study using data from four US and one UK health-care database, part of the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network. The inclusion criteria were the same as those for TOPKAT; briefly, we identified patients aged at least 40 years with osteoarthritis who had undergone UKR or TKR and who had available data for at least one year prior to surgery. Patients were excluded if they had evidence of previous knee arthroplasty, knee fracture, knee surgery (except diagnostic), rheumatoid arthritis, infammatory arthropathies, or septic arthritis. Opioid use from 91-365 days after surgery, as a proxy for persistent pain, was assessed for all participants in all databases. Postoperative complications (ie, venous thromboembolism, infection, readmission, and mortality) were assessed over the 60 days after surgery and implant survival (as measured by revision procedures) was assessed over the 5 years after surgery. Outcomes were assessed in all databases, except for readmission, which was assessed in three of the databases, and mortality, which was assessed in two of the databases. Propensity score matched Cox proportional hazards models were fitted for each outcome. Calibrated hazard ratios (cHRs) were generated for each database to account for observed differences in control outcomes, and cHRs were then combined using meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

33 867 individuals who received UKR and 557 831 individuals who received TKR between Jan 1, 2005, and April 30, 2018, were eligible for matching. 32 379 with UKR and 250 377 with TKR were propensity score matched and informed the analyses. UKR was associated with a reduced risk of postoperative opioid use (cHR from meta-analysis 0·81, 95% CI 0·73-0·90) and a reduced risk of venous thromboembolism (0·62, 0·36-0·95), whereas no difference was seen for infection (0·85, 0·51-1·37) and readmission (0·79, 0·47-1·25). Evidence was insufficient to conclude whether there was a reduction in risk of mortality. UKR was also associated with an increased risk of revision (1·64, 1·40-1·94).

INTERPRETATION

UKR was associated with a reduced risk of postoperative opioid use compared with TKR, which might indicate a reduced risk of persistent pain after surgery. UKR was associated with a lower risk of venous thromboembolism but an increased risk of revision compared with TKR. These findings can help to inform shared decision making for individuals eligible for knee replacement surgery.

FUNDING

EU/European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations Innovative Medicines Initiative (2) Joint Undertaking (EHDEN).

The contribution of internet use in personal networks of support for long-term condition self-management

Objectives

To describe the individual and network characteristics of the personal communities of people using the internet and the role of offline support, network resources and community participation in using the internet for condition management.

Methods

Secondary analysis of survey data using logistic regression analysis to determine the factors associated with differential internet use for condition management. This study involved 300 participants from 19 primary care providers in Manchester in 2010 and 2011.

Results

Using the internet is associated with age, deprivation, education and having access to a personal network member who understands how to fix computer problems. Those using the internet for condition management received more offline emotional work. No associations were found between using the internet for health and other types of offline support. Those using the internet for support reported lower levels of happiness.

Conclusion

Network processes and engagement shape online contact and use of resources for condition management. Those with access to personal networks who provide emotional work are likely to make use of online resources during non-crisis situations, suggesting that these resources act as an extension of offline network support. Those with greater levels of unhappiness may more frequently look to the internet for support.

Study protocol for 'The Project About Loneliness and Social networks (PALS)': a pragmatic, randomised trial comparing a facilitated social network intervention (Genie) with a wait-list control for lonely and socially isolated people

INTRODUCTION

Loneliness and social isolation have been identified as significant public health concerns, but improving relationships and increasing social participation may improve health outcomes and quality of life. The aim of the Project About Loneliness and Social networks (PALS) study is to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a guided social network intervention within a community setting among individuals experiencing loneliness and isolation and to understand implementation of Generating Engagement in Network Involvement (Genie) in the context of different organisations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The PALS trial will be a pragmatic, randomised controlled trial comparing participants receiving the Genie intervention to a wait-list control group. Eligible participants will be recruited from organisations working within a community setting: any adult identified as socially isolated or at-risk of loneliness and living in the community will be eligible. Genie will be delivered by trained facilitators recruited from community organisations. The primary outcome will be the difference in the SF-12 Mental Health composite scale score at 6-month follow-up between the intervention and control group using a mixed effects model (accounting for clustering within facilitators and organisation). Secondary outcomes will be loneliness, social isolation, well-being, physical health and engagement with new activities. The economic evaluation will use a cost-utility approach, and adopt a public sector perspective to include health-related resource use and costs incurred by other public services. Exploratory analysis will use a societal perspective, and explore broader measures of benefit (capability well-being). A qualitative process evaluation will explore organisational and environmental arrangements, as well as stakeholder and participant experiences of the study to understand the factors likely to influence future sustainability, implementation and scalability of using a social network intervention within this context.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received NHS ethical approval (REC reference: 18/SC/0245). The findings from PALS will be disseminated widely through peer-reviewed publications, conferences and workshops in collaboration with our community partners.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN19193075.

Development of a measure of collective efficacy within personal networks: A complement to self-efficacy in self-management support?

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate the Collective Efficacy of Networks (CENS) questionnaire to measure perceived collective efficacy within personal social networks.

METHODS

A mixed methods approach was used, guided by theory and with extensive input from adults with long-term conditions who completed the initial questionnaire (n = 78) with test-retest assessed at 2 weeks (n = 68). A second sample (n = 85) completed a postal questionnaire including CENS, theoretically linked constructs (self-efficacy, social support) and health outcomes (loneliness, mental and physical health).

RESULTS

Principal components analysis demonstrated a two-factor structure with 12-items selected to represent Network responsiveness (8 items, Cronbach's alpha = 0.896) and Access to collective efficacy (4 items, Cronbach's alpha = .773). Good test-retest reliability was established for both subscales (r_icc = .793-.853). Network responsiveness was associated with self-efficacy (r = 342, p = . < 001) and social support (r = .407, p < .001) and predicted reduced loneliness. Access to collective efficacy significantly predicted better mental health; the predictive validity of the subscales improved when combined with self-efficacy.

CONCLUSION

The CENS is an acceptable and psychometrically robust measure of collective efficacy in personal social networks.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Measuring collective efficacy with self-efficacy will provide useful information for researchers and policymakers interested in capacity for self-management and social determinants of behaviour change.

Cognitive impairment is independently associated with mortality, extended hospital stays and early readmission of older people with emergency hospital admissions: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Older adults admitted to hospital are often cognitively impaired. It is not clear whether the presence of cognitive impairment conveys an additional risk for poor hospital outcomes in this patient population.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether cognitive impairment in hospitalised older adults is independently associated with poor outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using electronic, routinely collected data from linked clinical and administrative databases.

SETTING

Large, acute district general hospital in England.

PARTICIPANTS

21,399 incident emergency admissions of people aged ≥75, screened for cognitive impairment, categorised to 3 groups: (i) cognitive impairment with a diagnosis of dementia, (ii) cognitive impairment with no dementia diagnosis, (iii) no cognitive impairment.

METHODS

Multivariable logistic regression and Fine and Gray competing risks survival models were employed to explore associations between cognitive impairment and mortality (in-hospital alone, and in-hospital plus up to 30 days after discharge), time to hospital discharge, and hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Covariates included age, severity of illness, main diagnosis, comorbidities and nutritional risk.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven percent of patients had cognitive impairment; of these, 61.5% had a diagnosis of dementia and 38.5% did not. Patients with cognitive impairment and no diagnosis of dementia were most likely to die in hospital or be readmitted, they also had the longest hospital stays. Cognitive impairment was independently associated with mortality in hospital (Odds Ratio 1.34 [1.17-1.55] with dementia; Odds Ratio 1.78 [1.52-2.07] without), mortality in hospital or within 30 days of discharge (Odds Ratio 1.66 [1.48-1.86]; Odds Ratio 1.67 [1.46-1.90]); readmission (Odds Ratio 1.21 [1.04-1.40]; Odds Ratio 1.47 [1.25-1.73]), and increased time until discharge (sub-hazard ratio 0.80 [0.76-0.83]; sub-hazard ratio 0.66 [0.63-0.69]).

CONCLUSIONS

Cognitive impairment is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes in hospitalised older people with an unscheduled admission, by increasing hospital mortality, extending hospital stays and increasing frequency of readmissions. Future research should focus on understanding the mechanisms contributing to poorer outcomes in this population.

Exploring emergency department 4-hour target performance and cancelled elective operations: a regression analysis of routinely collected and openly reported NHS trust data

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the effect of intrahospital patient flow on emergency department (ED) performance targets and indicate if the expectations set by the National Health Service (NHS) England 5-year forward review are realistic in returning emergency services to previous performance levels.

DESIGN

Linear regression analysis of routinely reported trust activity and performance data using a series of cross-sectional studies.

SETTING

NHS trusts in England submitting routine nationally reported measures to NHS England.

PARTICIPANTS

142 acute non-specialist trusts operating in England between 2012 and 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures were proportion of 4-hour waiting time breaches and cancelled elective operations.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate linear regression models were used to show relationships between the outcome measures and various measures of trust activity including empty day beds, empty night beds, day bed to night bed ratio, ED conversion ratio and delayed transfers of care.

RESULTS

Univariate regression results using the outcome of 4-hour breaches showed clear relationships with empty night beds and ED conversion ratio between 2012 and 2016. The day bed to night bed ratio showed an increasing ability to explain variation in performance between 2015 and 2016. Delayed transfers of care showed little evidence of an association. Multivariate model results indicated that the ability of patient flow variables to explain 4-hour target performance had reduced between 2012 and 2016 (19% to 12%), and had increased in explaining cancelled elective operations (7% to 17%).

CONCLUSIONS

The flow of patients through trusts is shown to influence ED performance; however, performance has become less explainable by intratrust patient flow between 2012 and 2016. Some commonly stated explanatory factors such as delayed transfers of care showed limited evidence of being related. The results indicate some of the measures proposed by NHS England to reduce pressure on EDs may not have the desired impact on returning services to previous performance levels.

Using a linked database for epidemiology across the primary and secondary care divide: acute kidney injury

Background

NHS England has mandated the use in hospital laboratories of an automated early warning algorithm to create a consistent method for the detection of acute kidney injury (AKI). It generates an ‘alert’ based on changes in serum creatinine level to notify attending clinicians of a possible incident case of the condition, and to provide an assessment of its severity. We aimed to explore the feasibility of secondary data analysis to reproduce the algorithm outside of the hospital laboratory, and to describe the epidemiology of AKI across primary and secondary care within a region.

Methods

Using the Hampshire Health Record Analytical database, a patient-anonymised database linking primary care, secondary care and hospital laboratory data, we applied the algorithm to one year (1st January-31st December 2014) of retrospective longitudinal data. We developed database queries to modularise the collection of data from various sectors of the local health system, recreate the functions of the algorithm and undertake data cleaning.

Results

Of a regional population of 642,337 patients, 176,113 (27.4%) had two or more serum creatinine test results available, with testing more common amongst older age groups. We identified 5361 (or 0.8%) with incident AKI indicated by the algorithm, generating a total of 13,845 individual AKI alerts. A cross-sectional assessment of each patient’s first alert found that more than two-thirds of cases originated in the community, of which nearly half did not lead to a hospital admission.

Conclusion

It is possible to reproduce the algorithm using linked primary care, secondary care and hospital laboratory data, although data completeness, data quality and technical issues must be overcome. Linked data is essential to follow the significant proportion of people with AKI who transition from primary to secondary care, and can be used to assess clinical outcomes and the impact of interventions across the health system. This study emphasises that the development of data systems bridging across different sectors of the health and social care system can provide benefits for researchers, clinicians, healthcare providers and commissioners.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12911-017-0503-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Lower limb arthroplasty: can we produce a tool to predict outcome and failure, and is it cost-effective? An epidemiological study

Background

Although hip and knee arthroplasties are considered to be common elective cost-effective operations, up to one-quarter of patients are not satisfied with the operation. A number of risk factors for implant failure are known, but little is known about the predictors of patient-reported outcomes.

Objectives

(1) Describe current and future needs for lower limb arthroplasties in the UK; (2) describe important risk factors for poor surgery outcomes and combine them to produce predictive tools (for hip and knee separately) for poor outcomes; (3) produce a Markov model to enable a detailed health economic analysis of hip/knee arthroplasty, and for implementing the predictive tool; and (4) test the practicality of the prediction tools in a pragmatic prospective cohort of lower limb arthroplasty.

Design

The programme was arranged into four work packages. The first three work packages used the data from large existing data sets such as Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and the National Joint Registry. Work package 4 established a pragmatic cohort of lower limb arthroplasty to test the practicality of the predictive tools developed within the programme.

Results

The estimated number of total knee replacements (TKRs) and total hip replacements (THRs) performed in the UK in 2015 was 85,019 and 72,418, respectively. Between 1991 and 2006, the estimated age-standardised rates (per 100,000 person-years) for a THR increased from 60.3 to 144.6 for women and from 35.8 to 88.6 for men. The rates for TKR increased from 42.5 to 138.7 for women and from 28.7 to 99.4 for men. The strongest predictors for poor outcomes were preoperative pain/function scores, deprivation, age, mental health score and radiographic variable pattern of joint space narrowing. We found a weak association between body mass index (BMI) and outcomes; however, increased BMI did increase the risk of revision surgery (a 5-kg/m2rise in BMI increased THR revision risk by 10.4% and TKR revision risk by 7.7%). We also confirmed that osteoarthritis (OA) severity and migration pattern of the hip predicted patient-reported outcome measures. The hip predictive tool that we developed performed well, with a correctedR2of 23.1% and had good calibration, with only slight overestimation of Oxford Hip Score in the lowest decile of outcome. The knee tool developed performed less well, with a correctedR2of 20.2%; however, it had good calibration. The analysis was restricted by the relatively limited number of variables available in the extant data sets, something that could be addressed in future studies. We found that the use of bisphosphonates reduced the risk of revision knee and hip surgery by 46%. Hormone replacement therapy reduced the risk by 38%, if used for at least 6 months postoperatively. We found that an increased risk of postoperative fracture was prevented by bisphosphonate use. This result, being observational in nature, will require confirmation in a randomised controlled trial. The Markov model distinguished between outcome categories following primary and revision procedures. The resulting outcome prediction tool for THR and TKR reduced the number and proportion of unsatisfactory outcomes after the operation, saving NHS resources in the process. The highest savings per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) forgone were reported from the oldest patient subgroups (men and women aged ≥ 80 years), with a reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of around £1200 saved per QALY forgone for THRs. In the prospective cohort of arthroplasty, the performance of the knee model was modest (R2 = 0.14) and that of the hip model poor (R2 = 0.04). However, the addition of the radiographic OA variable improved the performance of the hip model (R2 = 0.125 vs. 0.110) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein improved the performance of the knee model (R2 = 0.230 vs. 0.216). These data will ideally need replication in an external cohort of a similar design. The data are not necessarily applicable to other health systems or countries.

Conclusion

The number of total hip and knee replacements will increase in the next decade. High BMI, although clinically insignificant, is associated with an increased risk of revision surgery and postoperative complications. Preoperative pain/function, the pattern of joint space narrowing, deprivation index and level of education were found to be the strongest predictors for THR. Bisphosphonates and hormone therapy proved to be beneficial for patients undergoing lower limb replacement. The addition of new predictors collected from the prospective cohort of arthroplasty slightly improved the performance of the predictive tools, suggesting that the potential improvements in both tools can be achieved using the plethora of extra variables from the validation cohort. Although currently it would not be cost-effective to implement the predictive tools in a health-care setting, we feel that the addition of extensive risk factors will improve the performances of the predictive tools as well as the Markov model, and will prove to be beneficial in terms of cost-effectiveness. Future analyses are under way and awaiting more promising provisional results.

Future work

Further research should focus on defining and predicting the most important outcome to the patient.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Improved outcomes in ex-smokers with COPD: a UK primary care observational cohort study

Smoking cessation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) reduces accelerated forced expiratory volume in 1 s decline, but impact on key health outcomes is less clear. We studied the relationship of smoking status to mortality and hospitalisation in a UK primary care COPD population.

Using patient-anonymised routine data in the Hampshire Health Record Analytical Database, we identified a prevalent COPD cohort, categorising patients by smoking status (current, ex- or never-smokers). Three outcomes were measured over 3 years (2011–2013): all-cause mortality, respiratory-cause unplanned hospital admission and respiratory-cause emergency department attendance. Survival analysis using multivariable Cox regression after multiple imputation was used to estimate hazard ratios for each outcome by smoking status, adjusting for measured confounders (including age, lung function, socioeconomic deprivation, inhaled medication and comorbidities).

We identified 16 479 patients with COPD, mean±sd age 70.1±11.1 years. Smoking status was known in 91.3%: 35.1% active smokers, 54.3% ex-smokers, 1.9% never-smokers. Active smokers predominated among younger patients. Compared with active smokers (n=5787), ex-smokers (n=8941) had significantly reduced risk of death, hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.78 (0.70–0.87), hospitalisation, 0.82 (0.74–0.89) and emergency department attendance, 0.78 (0.70–0.88).

After adjusting for confounders, ex-smokers had significantly better outcomes, emphasising the importance of effective smoking cessation support, regardless of age or lung function.

Many COPD patients smoke: better outcomes in ex-smokers suggest many deaths and admissions avoidable if smokers quithttp://ow.ly/l85u30aizmK

The effect of patient age at intervention on risk of implant revision after total replacement of the hip or knee: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Total joint replacements for end-stage osteoarthritis of the hip and knee are cost-effective and demonstrate significant clinical improvement. However, robust population based lifetime-risk data for implant revision are not available to aid patient decision making, which is a particular problem in young patient groups deciding on best-timing for surgery.

METHODS

We did implant survival analysis on all patients within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who had undergone total hip replacement or total knee replacement. These data were adjusted for all-cause mortality with data from the Office for National Statistics and used to generate lifetime risks of revision surgery based on increasing age at the time of primary surgery.

FINDINGS

We identified 63 158 patients who had undergone total hip replacement and 54 276 who had total knee replacement between Jan 1, 1991, and Aug 10, 2011, and followed up these patients to a maximum of 20 years. For total hip replacement, 10-year implant survival rate was 95·6% (95% CI 95·3-95·9) and 20-year rate was 85·0% (83·2-86·6). For total knee replacement, 10-year implant survival rate was 96·1% (95·8-96·4), and 20-year implant survival rate was 89·7% (87·5-91·5). The lifetime risk of requiring revision surgery in patients who had total hip replacement or total knee replacement over the age of 70 years was about 5% with no difference between sexes. For those who had surgery younger than 70 years, however, the lifetime risk of revision increased for younger patients, up to 35% (95% CI 30·9-39·1) for men in their early 50s, with large differences seen between male and female patients (15% lower for women in same age group). The median time to revision for patients who had surgery younger than age 60 was 4·4 years.

INTERPRETATION

Our study used novel methodology to investigate and offer new insight into the importance of young age and risk of revision after total hip or knee replacement. Our evidence challenges the increasing trend for more total hip replacements and total knee replacements to be done in the younger patient group, and these data should be offered to patients as part of the shared decision making process.

FUNDING

Oxford Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, National Institute for Health Research.

Social Network Type and Long-Term Condition Management Support: A Cross-Sectional Study in Six European Countries

Background

Network types and characteristics have been linked to the capacity of inter-personal environments to mobilise and share resources. The aim of this paper is to examine personal network types in relation to long-term condition management in order to identify the properties of network types most likely to provide support for those with a long-term condition.

Method

A cross-sectional observational survey of people with type 2 diabetes using interviews and questionnaires was conducted between April and October 2013 in six European countries: Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Norway, United Kingdom, and Netherlands. 1862 people with predominantly lower socio-economic status were recruited from each country. We used k-means clustering analysis to derive the network types, and one-way analysis of variance and multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore the relationship between network type socio-economic characteristics, self-management monitoring and skills, well-being, and network member work.

Results

Five network types of people with long-term conditions were identified: restricted, minimal family, family, weak ties, and diverse. Restricted network types represented those with the poorest self-management skills and were associated with limited support from social network members. Restricted networks were associated with poor indicators across self-management capacity, network support, and well-being. Diverse networks were associated with more enhanced self-management skills amongst those with a long-term condition and high level of emotional support. It was the three network types which had a large number of network members (diverse, weak ties, and family) where healthcare utilisation was most likely to correspond to existing health needs.

Discussion

Our findings suggest that type of increased social involvement is linked to greater self-management capacity and potentially lower formal health care costs indicating that diverse networks constitute the optimal network type as a policy in terms of the design of LTCM interventions and building support for people with LTCs.

A pilot investigation of the prevalence of US-detectable forefoot joint pathology and reported foot-related disability in participants with systemic lupus erythematosus

Background

The main aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of US-detectable forefoot bursae, metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint synovial hypertrophy (SH), Power Doppler (PD) signal or erosion in participants with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). A secondary aim was to determine the strength of potential association between patient reported foot-related disability and US-detected forefoot bursae, MTP joint SH, PD signal or erosion in participants with SLE.

Method

A cross-sectional observational study of 20 participants with SLE was completed to determine the prevalence of US-detected forefoot bursal, MTP and MCP joint pathology. Patient-reported foot-related impairment and activity limitation (accumulatively referred to as disability) were also recorded. Spearmans’ Rank Correlation analyses were completed to determine the potential strength of association between US-detected pathology and patient report disability.

Results

The prevalence of MTP joint SH and PD was 80 % (16/20) and 10 % (2/20), respectively. The prevalence of MCP joint SH and PD was 60 % (12/20) and 30 % (6/20) respectively. A significant association was noted between PD scores for the MTP joints and MCP joints (r = 0.556; p = 0.011) although this was not demonstrated for SH scores (r = 0.176; p = 0.459). Significant associations between forefoot bursal prevalence and MTP joint PD were noted (r = 0.467; p = 0.038). The prevalence of bursae and bursal PD (grade 2 or above) was 100 % (20/20) and 10 % (2/20), respectively. Moderate foot-related impairment and activity limitation was reported by 95 and 85 % of participants respectively.

Conclusion

This pilot study suggests that US-detected MTP, MCP joint and forefoot bursal abnormalities may be prevalent in participants with SLE and they may experience a moderate level of foot-related disability. Further research is required to substantiate these preliminary findings.

Which Patients with Giant Cell Arteritis Will Develop Cardiovascular or Cerebrovascular Disease? A Clinical Practice Research Datalink Study

Objective.

To evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular disease and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA), and to identify predictors.

Methods.

The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink 1991–2010 was used for a parallel cohort study of 5827 patients with GCA and 37,090 age-, sex-, and location-matched controls. A multivariable competing risk model (non-cerebrovascular/CV-related death as the competing risk) determined the relative risk [subhazard ratio (SHR)] between patients with GCA compared with background controls for cerebrovascular disease, CVD, or either. Each cohort (GCA and controls) was then analyzed individually using the same multivariable model, with age and sex now present, to identify predictors of CVD or cerebrovascular disease.

Results.

Patients with GCA, compared with controls, had an increased risk SHR (95% CI) of cerebrovascular disease (1.45, 1.31–1.60), CVD (1.49, 1.37–1.62), or either (1.47, 1.37–1.57). In the GCA cohort, predictors of “cerebrovascular disease or CVD” included increasing age, > 80 years versus < 65 years (1.98, 1.62–2.42), male sex (1.20, 1.05–1.38), and socioeconomic status, most deprived quintile versus least deprived (1.34, 1.01–1.78). These predictors were also present within the non-GCA cohort.

Conclusion.

Patients with GCA are more likely to develop cerebrovascular disease or CVD than age-, sex-, and location-matched controls. In common with the non-GCA cohort, patients who are older, male, and from the most deprived compared with least deprived areas have a higher risk of cerebrovascular disease or CVD. Further work is needed to understand how this risk may be mediated by specific behavioral, social, and economic factors.

Etanercept in Alzheimer disease: A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether the tumor necrosis factor α inhibitor etanercept is well tolerated and obtain preliminary data on its safety in Alzheimer disease dementia.

METHODS

In a double-blind study, patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease dementia were randomized (1:1) to subcutaneous etanercept (50 mg) once weekly or identical placebo over a 24-week period. Tolerability and safety of this medication was recorded including secondary outcomes of cognition, global function, behavior, and systemic cytokine levels at baseline, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and following a 4-week washout period. This trial is registered with EudraCT (2009-013400-31) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01068353).

RESULTS

Forty-one participants (mean age 72.4 years; 61% men) were randomized to etanercept (n = 20) or placebo (n = 21). Etanercept was well tolerated; 90% of participants (18/20) completed the study compared with 71% (15/21) in the placebo group. Although infections were more common in the etanercept group, there were no serious adverse events or new safety concerns. While there were some interesting trends that favored etanercept, there were no statistically significant changes in cognition, behavior, or global function.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that subcutaneous etanercept (50 mg/wk) was well tolerated in this small group of patients with Alzheimer disease dementia, but a larger more heterogeneous group needs to be tested before recommending its use for broader groups of patients.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study shows Class I evidence that weekly subcutaneous etanercept is well tolerated in Alzheimer disease dementia.

Future projections of total hip and knee arthroplasty in the UK: results from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the future rate of primary total hip (THR) or knee (TKR) replacement in the UK to 2035 allowing for changes in population demographics and obesity.

DESIGN

Using age/gender/body mass index (BMI)-specific incidence rates from a population-based cohort study of 50,000 THR and 45,609 TKR patients from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1991 and 2010, we projected future numbers of THR and TKR using two models: a static, estimated rate from 2010 applied to population growth forecasts to 2035, and a log-linear rate extrapolation over the same period. Both scenarios used population forecast data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).

RESULTS

Assuming rates of THR and TKR for 2010, and given projected population changes in age, gender and BMI, the number of THRs and TKRs performed in the UK in 2035 is estimated to be, respectively: 95,877 and 118,666. By comparison, an exponential extrapolation of historical rates using a log-linear model produces much higher estimates of THR and TKR counts in 2035 at 439,097 and 1,219,362 respectively. Projected counts were higher for women than men. Assuming a changing (rather than fixed) future BMI distribution increases TKRs by 2035 but not THRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Using historical rates and population forecasts we have projected the number of THR/TKR operations in the UK up to 2035. This study will inform policymakers requiring estimates of future demand for surgery. Incorporating future forecasts for BMI into projections of joint replacement may be more relevant for TKR rather than THR.

Timeliness in chronic kidney disease and albuminuria identification: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is predominantly managed in primary care in the UK, but there is evidence of under-identification leading to lack of inclusion on practice chronic disease registers, which are necessary to ensure disease monitoring. Guidelines for CKD patients recommend urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) testing to identify albuminuria to stratify risk and guide management. This study aimed to describe the pattern and associations of timely CKD registration and uACR testing.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of individuals with incident CKD 3–5 (two estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m² ≥ three months apart) between 2007 and 2013 was identified from a linked database containing primary and secondary care data. Descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify associations with patient characteristics of timely CKD registration and uACR testing (within a year of first low eGFR).

Results

12,988 people with CKD 3–5 were identified from 88 practices and followed for median 3.3 years. During this time period, 3235 (24.9%) were CKD-registered and 4638/12,988 (35.7%) had uACR testing (median time to CKD registration 307 days and to uACR test 379 days). 1829 (14.1%) were CKD-registered and 2229 (17.2%) had uACR testing within one year. Amongst people whose CKD was registered within a year, 676/1829 (37.0%) had uACR testing within a year (vs. 1553/11,159 (13.9%) of those not registered (p < 0.001)). Timely uACR testing varied by year, with a sharp rise in proportion in 2009 (when uACR policy changed). Timely CKD registration was independently associated with lower eGFR, being female, earlier year of joining the cohort, having diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease but not with age. Timely uACR testing was associated with timely CKD registration, younger age, having diabetes, higher baseline eGFR and later year of joining the cohort.

Conclusions

Better systems are needed to support timely CKD identification, registration and uACR testing in primary care in order to facilitate risk stratification and appropriate clinical management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12875-015-0235-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Associations between body mass index and foot joint pain in middle-aged and older women: a longitudinal population-based cohort study

Objective

To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and foot joint pain (FJP) over a 5-year period in a community-based cohort.

Methods

We examined a subset of women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community cohort followed up for 20 years. From a baseline of 1,003 female participants, we reviewed data from 639 women (64%) for whom complete data sets for FJP and BMI were obtained over a 5-year period between year 10 (Y10) and year 15 (Y15). Descriptive statistics, binary regression modeling, and odds ratios (ORs) were used to examine the longitudinal relationship between BMI and FJP.

Results

For Y10 and Y15, the median age was 61 years (interquartile range [IQR] 57–67) and 66 years (IQR 62–72), respectively, and the mean ± SD BMI was 26.7 ± 4.6 kg/m² and 27.2 ± 4.8 kg/m², respectively. FJP prevalence was 21.6% at Y10 and 26.6% at Y15. Longitudinal analyses showed that both BMI and FJP increased significantly from Y10 to Y15 (P < 0.001). The odds of having FJP after a 5-year period increased by 4.9% for each BMI unit increase 5 years earlier (OR 1.049 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.011–1.089], P = 0.012). This remained significant when adjusted for age, diabetes mellitus, and rheumatoid arthritis (OR 1.051 [95% CI 1.011–1.091], P = 0.012).

Conclusion

This is the first large longitudinal cohort study demonstrating that, in middle-aged women, a high BMI precedes and is predictive of FJP independent of age. Evidence from our findings can be used to identify those individuals at risk of developing FJP.

What is the risk of having a total hip or knee replacement for patients with lupus?

Individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) frequently have arthralgia but joint damage leading to surgery is thought to be less common. In addition to inflammatory damage, other reasons like avascular necrosis (AVN), which is often associated with steroid use, excessive alcohol intake and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), may increase the likelihood of large joint failure. In this study we aimed to determine the likelihood of having a total hip replacement (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR) for individuals with SLE compared to those without lupus, by performing a retrospective matched case control study of all THRs and TKRs that were performed between 1991 and 2011 and recorded in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Individuals with inflammatory arthritis due to any other causes were excluded and the results were adjusted for steroid use, alcohol consumption (drinking status) and APS. The results show that patients with lupus who had a THR or TKR were younger than their peers without lupus. In addition, they appeared to have a significantly increased risk of TKR but the increased risk of THR did not remain after adjustment for steroid use, alcohol consumption and APS.

Child-related characteristics predicting subsequent health-related quality of life in 8- to 14-year-old children with and without cerebellar tumors: a prospective longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

We identified child-related determinants of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children aged 8-14 years who were treated for 2 common types of pediatric brain tumors.

METHODS

Questionnaire measures of HRQoL and psychometric assessments were completed by 110 children on 3 occasions over 24 months. Of these 110, 72 were within 3 years of diagnosis of a cerebellar tumor (37 standard-risk medulloblastoma, 35 low-grade cerebellar astrocytoma), and 38 were in a nontumor group. HRQoL, executive function, health status, and behavioral difficulties were also assessed by parents and teachers as appropriate. Regression modeling was used to relate HRQoL z scores to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and 5 domains of functioning: Cognition, Emotion, Social, Motor and Sensory, and Behavior.

RESULTS

HRQoL z scores were significantly lower after astrocytoma than those in the nontumor group and significantly lower again in the medulloblastoma group, both by self-report and by parent-report. In regression modeling, significant child-related predictors of poorer HRQoL z scores by self-report were poorer cognitive and emotional function (both z scores) and greater age (years) at enrollment (B = 0.038, 0.098, 0.136, respectively). By parent-report, poorer cognitive, emotional and motor or sensory function (z score) were predictive of lower subsequent HRQoL of the child (B = 0.043, 0.112, 0.019, respectively), while age at enrollment was not.

CONCLUSIONS

Early screening of cognitive and emotional function in this age group, which are potentially amenable to change, could identify those at risk of poor HRQoL and provide a rational basis for interventions to improve HRQoL.

The reliability of a novel magnetic resonance imaging-based tool for the evaluation of forefoot bursae in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: the FFB score

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of an MRI-based score that evaluates forefoot bursae (FFBs) in patients with RA.

METHODS

Items for inclusion, grading criteria and MRI sequences were determined iteratively. The score was evaluated in 30 patients with established RA. Reader agreement was evaluated using the percentage of exact/close agreement, Bland-Altman plots, kappa and intraclass correlation coefficient analyses.

RESULTS

The FFB score assesses nine forefoot regions and contains four items: presence, shape, enhancement and magnetic resonance characteristics. The FFB score showed moderate to good intra- and interreader agreement (κ range = 0.5-0.9 and 0.47-0.87, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The FFB score is adequately reliable in the evaluation of bursa-like lesions of the forefoot in patients with RA.