Emerging Health Care Leaders: Lessons From a Novel Leadership and Community-Building Program

Background

Although there are guidelines and ideas on how to improve public health education, translating innovative approaches into actual training programs remains challenging. In this article, we provide an overview of some initiatives that tried to put this into action in different parts of the world, and present the Emerging Health Care Leader (EHCL), a novel training program developed in Switzerland.

Policy Options and Recommendations

Looking at the experience of the EHCL, we propose policymakers and other interested stakeholders who wish to help reform public health education to support these initiatives not only through funding, but by valuing them through the integration of early career healthcare leaders in projects where their developing expertise can be practically applied.

Conclusion

By openly sharing the experiences, strengths, weaknesses, and lessons learned with the EHCL program, we aim to foster a transparent debate on how novel training programs in public health can be organised.

Outcomes in studies regarding older patients with prostate cancer: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Older patients are often deemed ineligible for clinical research, and many frequently-used endpoints and outcome measures are not as relevant for older patients for younger ones. This systematic review aimed to present an overview of outcomes used in clinical research regarding patients over the age of 65 years with prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PubMed and Embase were systematically searched to identify studies on prostate cancer (treatment) in patients aged ≥65 between 2016 and 2023. Data on title, study design, number of participants and age, stage of disease, treatment, and investigated outcomes were synthesized and descriptively analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight studies were included. Of these most included patients over 65 years, while others used a higher age. Overall, 39 articles (57.3%) reported on survival-related outcomes, 22 (32.4%) reported on progression of disease and 38 (55.9%) used toxicity or adverse events as an outcome measure. Health-related quality of life and functional outcomes were investigated in 29.4%, and cognition in two studies. The most frequently investigated survival-related outcomes were overall and cancer-specific survival (51.3%); however, 38.5% only studied overall survival.

DISCUSSION

The main focus of studies included in this review remains survival and disease progression. There is limited attention for health-related quality of life and functional status, although older patients often prioritize the latter. Future research should incorporate outcome measures tailored to the aged population to improve care for older patients with prostate cancer.

Prescriptions of antidepressants and anxiolytics in France 2012-2022 and changes with the COVID-19 pandemic: interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety have increased in prevalence since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the consumption of antidepressants and anxiolytics from 2012 to 2022 and the pandemic's potential impact in France.

METHODS

We conducted an interrupted time series analysis of routine drug sales data (Medic'AM) from all French outpatient pharmacies from 2012 to 2022. We investigated trends in defined daily doses of antidepressants and anxiolytics sold per 1000 inhabitants (DDD/TID) and related expenditures before and after pandemic onset and in relation with stringency of pandemic mitigation measures. Analyses were performed descriptively and using segmented linear regression, autoregressive and autoregressive integrated moving average models.

FINDINGS

From 2012 to 2019, overall monthly antidepressant sales increased (+0.02 DDD/TID) while monthly anxiolytic sales decreased (-0.07 DDD/TID). With pandemic onset, there was a relevant and persisting trend increase (+0.20 DDD/TID per month) for antidepressant sales overall, with an estimated excess of 112.6 DDD/TID sold from May 2020 until December 2022. Anxiolytic sales were elevated from February 2020 throughout the pandemic but returned to expected levels by December 2022, with an estimated excess of 33.8 DDD/TID. There was no evident association between stringency and antidepressant or anxiolytic sales.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a protracted trend increase in the consumption of antidepressants since pandemic onset, while increases in anxiolytic consumption were temporary.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

We provide evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic may have had long-lasting consequences on the prevalence and treatment of depression and anxiety disorders, requiring further actions by researchers and policy-makers to address this potential public mental health crisis.

Persistent complement dysregulation with signs of thromboinflammation in active Long Covid

Long Covid is a debilitating condition of unknown etiology. We performed multimodal proteomics analyses of blood serum from COVID-19 patients followed up to 12 months after confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Analysis of >6500 proteins in 268 longitudinal samples revealed dysregulated activation of the complement system, an innate immune protection and homeostasis mechanism, in individuals experiencing Long Covid. Thus, active Long Covid was characterized by terminal complement system dysregulation and ongoing activation of the alternative and classical complement pathways, the latter associated with increased antibody titers against several herpesviruses possibly stimulating this pathway. Moreover, markers of hemolysis, tissue injury, platelet activation, and monocyte-platelet aggregates were increased in Long Covid. Machine learning confirmed complement and thromboinflammatory proteins as top biomarkers, warranting diagnostic and therapeutic interrogation of these systems.

Persistent humoral immune response in youth throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: prospective school-based cohort study

Understanding the development of humoral immune responses of children and adolescents to SARS-CoV-2 is essential for designing effective public health measures. Here we examine the changes of humoral immune response in school-aged children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020 to July 2022), with a specific interest in the Omicron variant (beginning of 2022). In our study "Ciao Corona", we assess in each of the five testing rounds between 1874 and 2500 children and adolescents from 55 schools in the canton of Zurich with a particular focus on a longitudinal cohort (n=751). By July 2022, 96.9% (95% credible interval 95.3-98.1%) of children and adolescents have SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG (S-IgG) antibodies. Those with hybrid immunity or vaccination have higher S-IgG titres and stronger neutralising responses against Wildtype, Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants compared to those infected but unvaccinated. S-IgG persist over 18 months in 93% of children and adolescents. During the study period one adolescent was hospitalised for less than 24 hours possibly related to an acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. These findings show that the Omicron wave and the rollout of vaccines boosted S-IgG titres and neutralising capacity. Trial registration number: NCT04448717. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04448717 .

Post COVID-19 condition, work ability and occupational changes in a population-based cohort

Background

Evidence on the impact of post COVID-19 condition (PCC) on work ability is limited but critical due to its high prevalence among working-age individuals. This study aimed to evaluate the association between PCC, work ability, and occupational changes in a population-based cohort.

Methods

We used data from working-age adults included in a prospective, longitudinal cohort of a random sample of all individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 between August 2020 and January 2021 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We evaluated current work ability, work ability related to physical and mental demands, and estimated future work ability in 2 years (assessed using Work Ability Index), and PCC-related occupational changes one year after infection.

Findings

Of 672 individuals included in this study, 120 (17.9%) were categorised as having PCC (defined as presence of self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms) at 12 months. There was very strong evidence that current work ability scores were mean 0.62 (95% CI 0.30-0.95) points lower among those with PCC compared to those without in adjusted regression analyses. Similarly, there was very strong evidence for lower odds of reporting higher work ability with respect to physical (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.20-0.46) and mental (aOR 0.40, 0.27-0.62) demands in individuals with PCC. Higher age and history of psychiatric diagnosis were associated with more substantial reductions in current work ability. 5.8% of those with PCC reported direct effects of PCC on their occupational situation, with 1.6% of those with PCC completely dropping out of the workforce.

Interpretation

These findings highlight the need for providing support and interdisciplinary interventions to individuals affected by PCC to help them maintain or regain their work ability and productivity.

Funding

Federal Office of Public Health, Department of Health of the Canton of Zurich, University of Zurich Foundation, Switzerland; Horizon Europe.

Recovery and symptom trajectories up to two years after SARS-CoV-2 infection: population based, longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate longer term symptoms and health outcomes associated with post-covid-19 condition within a cohort of individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DESIGN

Population based, longitudinal cohort.

SETTING

General population of canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

1106 adults with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who were not vaccinated before infection and 628 adults who did not have an infection.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trajectories of self-reported health status and covid-19 related symptoms between months six, 12, 18, and 24 after infection and excess risk of symptoms at six months after infection compared with individuals who had no infection.

RESULTS

22.9% (95% confidence interval 20.4% to 25.6%) of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 did not fully recover by six months. The proportion of individuals who had an infection who reported not having recovered decreased to 18.5% (16.2% to 21.1%) at 12 months and 17.2% (14.0% to 20.8%) at 24 months after infection. When assessing changes in self-reported health status, most participants had continued recovery (68.4% (63.8% to 72.6%)) or had an overall improvement (13.5% (10.6% to 17.2%)) over time. Yet, 5.2% (3.5% to 7.7%) had a worsening in health status and 4.4% (2.9% to 6.7%) had alternating periods of recovery and health impairment. The point prevalence and severity of covid-19 related symptoms also decreased over time, with 18.1% (14.8% to 21.9%) reporting symptoms at 24 months. 8.9% (6.5% to 11.2%) of participants reported symptoms at all four follow-up time points, while in 12.5% (9.8% to 15.9%) symptoms were alternatingly absent and present. Symptom prevalence was higher among individuals who were infected compared with those who were not at six months (adjusted risk difference 17.0% (11.5% to 22.4%)). Excess risk (adjusted risk difference) for individual symptoms among those infected ranged from 2% to 10%, with the highest excess risks observed for altered taste or smell (9.8% (7.7% to 11.8%)), post-exertional malaise (9.4% (6.1% to 12.7%)), fatigue (5.4% (1.2% to 9.5%)), dyspnoea (7.8% (5.2% to 10.4%)), and reduced concentration (8.3% (6.0% to 10.7%)) and memory (5.7% (3.5% to 7.9%)).

CONCLUSIONS

Up to 18% of individuals who were not vaccinated before infection had post-covid-19 condition up to two years after infection, with evidence of excess symptom risk compared with controls. Effective interventions are needed to reduce the burden of post-covid-19 condition. Use of multiple outcome measures and consideration of the expected rates of recovery and heterogeneity in symptom trajectories are important in the design and interpretation of clinical trials.

REGISTRATIONS

ISRCTN18181860, .

Factors Associated With COVID-19 Non-Vaccination in Switzerland: A Nationwide Study

Objectives: We compared socio-demographic characteristics, health-related variables, vaccination-related beliefs and attitudes, vaccination acceptance, and personality traits of individuals who vaccinated against COVID-19 and who did not vaccinate by December 2021. Methods: This cross-sectional study used data of 10,642 adult participants from the Corona Immunitas eCohort, an age-stratified random sample of the population of several cantons in Switzerland. We used multivariable logistic regression models to explore associations of vaccination status with socio-demographic, health, and behavioral factors. Results: Non-vaccinated individuals represented 12.4% of the sample. Compared to vaccinated individuals, non-vaccinated individuals were more likely to be younger, healthier, employed, have lower income, not worried about their health, have previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection, express lower vaccination acceptance, and/or report higher conscientiousness. Among non-vaccinated individuals, 19.9% and 21.3% had low confidence in the safety and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, respectively. However, 29.1% and 26.7% of individuals with concerns about vaccine effectiveness and side effects at baseline, respectively vaccinated during the study period. Conclusion: In addition to known socio-demographic and health-related factors, non-vaccination was associated with concerns regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness.

Longitudinal Humoral and Cell-Mediated Immune Responses in a Population-Based Cohort in Zurich, Switzerland from March to June 2022 - Evidence for Protection against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Neutralizing Antibodies and Spike-specific T cells

BACKGROUND

The correlate(s) of protection against SARS-CoV-2 remain incompletely defined. Additional information regarding the combinations of antibody and T cell-mediated immunity which can protect against (re)infection are needed.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, longitudinal cohort study including 1044 individuals of varying SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection statuses. We assessed Spike (S)- and Nucleocapsid (N)-IgG and wildtype, delta, and omicron neutralizing antibody (N-Ab) activity. In a subset of 328 individuals, we evaluated S, Membrane (M) and N-specific T cells. 3 months later, we reassessed antibody (n=964) and T cell (n=141) responses and evaluated factors associated with protection from (re)infection.

RESULTS

At study start, >98% of participants were S-IgG seropositive. N-IgG and M/N-T cell responses increased over time, indicating viral (re)exposure, despite existing S-IgG. Compared to N-IgG, M/N-T cells were a more sensitive measure of viral exposure. High N-IgG titers, omicron-N-Ab activity, and S-specific-T cell responses were all associated with reduced likelihood of (re)infection over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level SARS-CoV-2 immunity is S-IgG-dominated, but heterogenous. M/N T cell responses can distinguish previous infection from vaccination, and monitoring a combination of N-IgG, omicron-N-Ab and S-T cell responses may help estimate protection against SARS-CoV-2 (re)infection.

Patient and General Population Preferences Regarding the Benefits and Harms of Treatment for Metastatic Prostate Cancer: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Background

Patient preferences for treatment outcomes are important to guide decision-making in clinical practice, but little is known about the preferences of patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC).

Objective

To evaluate patient preferences regarding the attributed benefits and harms of systemic treatments for mHSPC and preference heterogeneity between individuals and specific subgroups.

Design setting and participants

We conducted an online discrete choice experiment (DCE) preference survey among 77 patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) and 311 men from the general population in Switzerland between November 2021 and August 2022.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

We evaluated preferences and preference heterogeneity related to survival benefits and treatment-related adverse effects using mixed multinomial logit models and estimated the maximum survival time participants were willing to trade to avert specific adverse effects. We further assessed characteristics associated with different preference patterns via subgroup and latent class analyses.

Results and limitations

Patients with mPC showed an overall stronger preference for survival benefits in comparison to men from the general population (p = 0.004), with substantial preference heterogeneity between individuals within the two samples (both p < 0.001). There was no evidence of differences in preferences for men aged 45-65 yr versus ≥65 yr, patients with mPC in different disease stages or with different adverse effect experiences, or general population participants with and without experiences with cancer. Latent class analyses suggested the presence of two groups strongly preferring either survival or the absence of adverse effects, with no specific characteristic clearly associated with belonging to either group. Potential biases due to participant selection, cognitive burden, and hypothetical choice scenarios may limit the study results.

Conclusions

Given the relevant heterogeneity in participant preferences regarding the benefits and harms of treatment for mHSPC, patient preferences should be explicitly discussed during decision-making in clinical practice and reflected in clinical practice guidelines and regulatory assessment regarding treatment for mHSPC.

Patient summary

We examined the preferences (values and perceptions) of patients and men from the general population regarding the benefits and harms of treatment for metastatic prostate cancer. There were large differences between men in how they balanced the expected survival benefits and potential adverse effects. While some men strongly valued survival, others more strongly valued the absence of adverse effects. Therefore, it is important to discuss patient preferences in clinical practice.

Adverse effects, perceptions and attitudes related to BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 or JNJ-78436735 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: Population-based cohort

Long-term control of SARS-CoV-2 requires effective vaccination strategies. This has been challenged by public mistrust and the spread of misinformation regarding vaccine safety. Better understanding and communication of the longer-term and comparative experiences of individuals in the general population following vaccination are required. In this population-based longitudinal study, we included 575 adults, randomly selected from all individuals presenting to a Swiss reference vaccination center, for receipt of BNT162b2, mRNA1273, or JNJ-78436735. We assessed the prevalence, onset, duration, and severity of self-reported adverse effects over 12 weeks following vaccination. We additionally evaluated participants' perceptions of vaccines, trust in public health authorities and pharmaceutical companies, and compliance with public health measures. Most participants reported at least one adverse effect within 12 weeks following vaccination. Adverse effects were mostly mild or moderate, resolved within three days, and rarely resulted in anaphylaxis or hospitalizations. Female sex, younger age, higher education, and receipt of mRNA-1273 were associated with reporting adverse effects. Compared to JNJ-78436735 recipients, a higher proportion of mRNA vaccine recipients agreed that vaccination is important, and trusted public health authorities. Our findings provide real-world estimates of the prevalence of adverse effects following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and highlight the importance of transparent communication to ensure the success of current or future vaccination campaigns.

Post COVID-19 condition after Wildtype, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection and prior vaccination: Pooled analysis of two population-based cohorts

BACKGROUND

Post COVID-19 condition (PCC) is an important complication of SARS-CoV-2 infection, affecting millions worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and severity of post COVID-19 condition (PCC) with novel SARS-CoV-2 variants and after prior vaccination.

METHODS

We used pooled data from 1350 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals from two representative population-based cohorts in Switzerland, diagnosed between Aug 5, 2020, and Feb 25, 2022. We descriptively analysed the prevalence and severity of PCC, defined as the presence and frequency of PCC-related symptoms six months after infection, among vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals infected with Wildtype, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess the association and estimate the risk reduction of PCC after infection with newer variants and prior vaccination. We further assessed associations with the severity of PCC using multinomial logistic regression. To identify groups of individuals with similar symptom patterns and evaluate differences in the presentation of PCC across variants, we performed exploratory hierarchical cluster analyses.

RESULTS

We found strong evidence that vaccinated individuals infected with Omicron had reduced odds of developing PCC compared to non-vaccinated Wildtype-infected individuals (odds ratio 0.42, 95% confidence interval 0.24-0.68). The odds among non-vaccinated individuals were similar after infection with Delta or Omicron compared to Wildtype SARS-CoV-2. We found no differences in PCC prevalence with respect to the number of received vaccine doses or timing of last vaccination. The prevalence of PCC-related symptoms among vaccinated, Omicron-infected individuals was lower across severity levels. In cluster analyses, we identified four clusters of diverse systemic, neurocognitive, cardiorespiratory, and musculoskeletal symptoms, with similar patterns across variants.

CONCLUSION

The risk of PCC appears to be lowered with infection by the Omicron variant and after prior vaccination. This evidence is crucial to guide future public health measures and vaccination strategies.

Continuous population-level monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a large European metropolitan region

Effective public health measures against SARS-CoV-2 require granular knowledge of population-level immune responses. We developed a Tripartite Automated Blood Immunoassay (TRABI) to assess the IgG response against three SARS-CoV-2 proteins. We used TRABI for continuous seromonitoring of hospital patients and blood donors (n = 72'250) in the canton of Zurich from December 2019 to December 2020 (pre-vaccine period). We found that antibodies waned with a half-life of 75 days, whereas the cumulative incidence rose from 2.3% in June 2020 to 12.2% in mid-December 2020. A follow-up health survey indicated that about 10% of patients infected with wildtype SARS-CoV-2 sustained some symptoms at least twelve months post COVID-19. Crucially, we found no evidence of a difference in long-term complications between those whose infection was symptomatic and those with asymptomatic acute infection. The cohort of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects represents a resource for the study of chronic and possibly unexpected sequelae.

Treatments for Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Systematic Review, Network Meta-analysis, and Benefit-harm assessment

CONTEXT

Multiple treatments for metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) are available, but their effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and benefit-harm balance remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess clinical effectiveness regarding survival and HRQoL, safety, and benefit-harm balance of mHSPC treatments.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov until March 1, 2022. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing docetaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide, darolutamide, and radiotherapy combined with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) mutually or with ADT alone were eligible. Three reviewers independently performed screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment in duplicate.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Across ten RCTs, we found relevant survival benefits for ADT + docetaxel (high certainty according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation [GRADE]), ADT + abiraterone (moderate certainty), ADT + enzalutamide (low certainty), ADT + apalutamide (high certainty), and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide (high certainty) compared with ADT alone. ADT + radiotherapy appeared effective only in low-volume de novo mHSPC. We found a short-term HRQoL decrease lasting 3-6 mo for ADT + docetaxel (moderate certainty) and a potential HRQoL benefit for ADT + abiraterone up to 24 mo of follow-up (moderate certainty) compared with ADT alone. There was no difference in HRQoL for ADT + enzalutamide, ADT + apalutamide, or ADT + radiotherapy over ADT alone (low-high certainty). Grade 3-5 adverse effect rates were increased with all systemic combination treatments. A benefit-harm assessment showed high probabilities (>60%) for a net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + enzalutamide, and ADT + apalutamide, while ADT + docetaxel and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide appeared unlikely (<40%) to be beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite substantial survival benefits, no systemic combination treatment showed a clear HRQoL improvement compared with ADT alone. We found evidence for a short-term HRQoL decline with ADT + docetaxel and a higher net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + apalutamide and ADT + enzalutamide. While individualized decision-making remains important and economic factors need to be considered, the evidence may support a general preference for the combination of ADT with androgen receptor axis-targeted therapies over docetaxel-containing strategies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We assessed different combination treatments for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. While survival was better with all systemic combination treatments, there was no clear improvement in health-related quality of life compared with androgen deprivation therapy alone. Novel hormonal combination treatments had a more favorable benefit-harm balance than combination treatments that include chemotherapy.

Performance of the Swiss Digital Contact-Tracing App Over Various SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Waves: Repeated Cross-sectional Analyses

BACKGROUND

Digital proximity-tracing apps have been deployed in multiple countries to assist with SARS-CoV-2 pandemic mitigation efforts. However, it is unclear how their performance and effectiveness were affected by changing pandemic contexts and new viral variants of concern.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to bridge these knowledge gaps through a countrywide digital proximity-tracing app effectiveness assessment, as guided by the World Health Organization/European Center for Prevention and Disease Control (WHO/ECDC) indicator framework to evaluate the public health effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing solutions.

METHODS

We performed a descriptive analysis of the digital proximity-tracing app SwissCovid in Switzerland for 3 different periods where different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (ie, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron, respectively) were most prevalent. In our study, we refer to the indicator framework for the evaluation of public health effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing apps of the WHO/ECDC. We applied this framework to compare the performance and effectiveness indicators of the SwissCovid app.

RESULTS

Average daily registered SARS-CoV-2 case rates during our assessment period from January 25, 2021, to March 19, 2022, were 20 (Alpha), 54 (Delta), and 350 (Omicron) per 100,000 inhabitants. The percentages of overall entered authentication codes from positive tests into the SwissCovid app were 9.9% (20,273/204,741), 3.9% (14,372/365,846), and 4.6% (72,324/1,581,506) during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variant phases, respectively. Following receipt of an exposure notification from the SwissCovid app, 58% (37/64, Alpha), 44% (7/16, Delta), and 73% (27/37, Omicron) of app users sought testing or performed self-tests. Test positivity among these exposure-notified individuals was 19% (7/37) in the Alpha variant phase, 29% (2/7) in the Delta variant phase, and 41% (11/27) in the Omicron variant phase compared to 6.1% (228,103/3,755,205), 12% (413,685/3,443,364), and 41.7% (1,784,951/4,285,549) in the general population, respectively. In addition, 31% (20/64, Alpha), 19% (3/16, Delta), and 30% (11/37, Omicron) of exposure-notified app users reported receiving mandatory quarantine orders by manual contact tracing or through a recommendation by a health care professional.

CONCLUSIONS

In constantly evolving pandemic contexts, the effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing apps in contributing to mitigating pandemic spread should be reviewed regularly and adapted based on changing requirements. The WHO/ECDC framework allowed us to assess relevant domains of digital proximity tracing in a holistic and systematic approach. Although the Swisscovid app mostly worked, as reasonably expected, our analysis revealed room for optimizations and further performance improvements. Future implementation of digital proximity-tracing apps should place more emphasis on social, psychological, and organizational aspects to reduce bottlenecks and facilitate their use in pandemic contexts.

Survival modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for newly diagnosed metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

In metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) treatment, survival benefits have been shown by adding docetaxel or recent androgen receptor axis-targeted therapies (ARATs) abiraterone, apalutamide, or enzalutamide to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). However, the optimal treatment strategy in terms of costs and effects is unclear, not least due to high ARAT costs.

METHODS

To assess treatment cost-effectiveness, we developed a Markov cohort model with health states of progression-free disease, progressive disease and death for men with newly diagnosed mHSPC, with a 30-year time horizon. Survival data, adverse events and utilities were informed by randomized controlled trial results, our meta-analysis of re-created individual patient survival data, and publicly available sources of unit costs. We applied a Swiss healthcare payer perspective and discounted costs and effects by 3%.

RESULTS

We found a significant overall survival benefit for ADT+abiraterone versus ADT+docetaxel. The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was predicted to be EUR 39,814 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. ADT+apalutamide and ADT+enzalutamide incurred higher costs and lower QALYs compared to ADT+abiraterone. For all ARATs, drug costs constituted the most substantial cost component. Results were stable except for a large univariable reduction in the pre-progression utility under ADT+abiraterone and very large variations in drug prices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model projected ADT+abiraterone to be cost-effective compared to ADT+docetaxel at a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 70,400/QALY (CHF 100,000 applying purchasing power parities). Given lower estimated QALYs for ADT+apalutamide and ADT+enzalutamide compared to ADT+abiraterone, the former only became cost-effective (the preferred) treatment option(s) at substantial 75-80% (80-90%) price reductions.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021

Importance

Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID).

Objective

To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022.

Exposures

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age.

Results

A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Heterogenous humoral and cellular immune responses with distinct trajectories post-SARS-CoV-2 infection in a population-based cohort

To better understand the development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity over time, a detailed evaluation of humoral and cellular responses is required. Here, we characterize anti-Spike (S) IgA and IgG in a representative population-based cohort of 431 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals up to 217 days after diagnosis, demonstrating that 85% develop and maintain anti-S responses. In a subsample of 64 participants, we further assess anti-Nucleocapsid (N) IgG, neutralizing antibody activity, and T cell responses to Membrane (M), N, and S proteins. In contrast to S-specific antibody responses, anti-N IgG levels decline substantially over time and neutralizing activity toward Delta and Omicron variants is low to non-existent within just weeks of Wildtype SARS-CoV-2 infection. Virus-specific T cells are detectable in most participants, albeit more variable than antibody responses. Cluster analyses of the co-evolution of antibody and T cell responses within individuals identify five distinct trajectories characterized by specific immune patterns and clinical factors. These findings demonstrate the relevant heterogeneity in humoral and cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 while also identifying consistent patterns where antibody and T cell responses may work in a compensatory manner to provide protection.

The persistence of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 after recovery from infection is an indicator for subsequent protection against infection. Here the authors follow recovered patients and measure antibody and T cell responses and find that these two parts of the immune response may have different longevity.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

Importance:

While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.

Objective:

To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery

Design:

We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results:

Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.

Conclusions and relevance:

The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.

Individual-level Evaluation of the Exposure Notification Cascade in the SwissCovid Digital Proximity Tracing App: An Observational Study

Background

Digital proximity tracing (DPT) aims to complement manual contact tracing (MCT) in identifying exposed contacts and preventing further transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. Although several DPT apps, including SwissCovid, have shown to have promising effects on mitigating the pandemic, several challenges have impeded them from fully achieving the desired results. A key question now relates to how the effectiveness of DPT can be improved, which requires a better understanding of factors influencing its processes.

Objective

In this study, we aim to provide a detailed examination of the exposure notification (EN) cascade and to evaluate potential contextual influences for successful receipt of an EN and subsequent actions taken by cases and contacts in different exposure settings.

Methods

We used data from 285 pairs of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases and their contacts within an observational cohort study of cases and contacts identified by MCT and enrolled between August 6, 2020, and January 17, 2021, in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We surveyed participants with electronic questionnaires. Data were summarized descriptively and stratified by exposure setting.

Results

We found that only 79 (58.5%) of 135 contacts using the SwissCovid app whose corresponding cases reported to have triggered the EN also received one. Of these, 18 (22.8%) received the EN before MCT. Compared to those receiving an EN after MCT (61/79, 77.2%), we observed that a higher proportion of contacts receiving an EN before MCT were exposed in nonhousehold settings (11/18, 61.1%, vs 34/61, 55.7%) and their corresponding cases had more frequently reported mild-to-moderate symptoms (14/18, 77.8%, vs 42/61, 68.9%). Of the 18 contacts receiving an EN before MCT, 14 (77.8%) took recommended measures: 12 (66.7%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2, and 7 (38.9%) called the SwissCovid Infoline. In nonhousehold settings, the proportion of contacts taking preventive actions after receiving an EN was higher compared to same-household settings (82%, vs 67%). In addition, 1 (9%) of 11 ENs received in the nonhousehold setting before MCT led to the identification of a SARS-CoV-2-infected case by prompting the contact to get tested. This corresponds to 1 in 85 exposures of a contact to a case in a nonhousehold setting, in which both were app users and the case triggered the EN.

Conclusions

Our descriptive evaluation of the DPT notification cascade provides further evidence that DPT is an important complementary tool in pandemic mitigation, especially in nonhousehold exposure settings. However, the effect of DPT apps can only be exerted if code generation processes are efficient and exposed contacts are willing to undertake preventive actions. This highlights the need to focus efforts on keeping barriers to efficient code generation as low as possible and promoting not only app adoption but also compliance with the recommended measures upon an EN.

Trial Registration

International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry 14990068; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14990068

Mental health of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 during mandated isolation and compliance with recommendations—A population-based cohort study

Background

Isolation is an indispensable measure to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it may have a negative impact on mental health and overall wellbeing. Evidence on the isolation experience, facilitating and complicating factors is needed to mitigate negative effects.

Methods and findings

This observational, population-based cohort study enrolled 1547 adults from the general population with SARS-CoV-2 infection reported to authorities between 27 February 2020 and 19 January 2021 in Zurich, Switzerland. We assessed the proportion of individuals reporting symptoms of depression and anxiety before, during and after isolation (by DASS-21), and queried worries, positive experiences, and difficulties. We analyzed the association of these outcomes with socio-demographics using ordinal regression. Additionally, we report free-text statements by participants to capture most important aspects of isolation. The proportion of participants affected by depression or anxiety increased during isolation from 10·0% to 17·1% and 9·1% to 17·6%, respectively. Ordinal regression showed that taking care of children increased the difficulty of isolation (OR 2·10, CI 1·43–3·08) and risk of non-compliance (OR 1·63, CI 1·05–2·53), especially in younger participants. A facilitating factor that individuals commonly expressed was receiving more support during isolation.

Conclusion

Isolation due to SARS-CoV-2 presents a mental burden, especially for younger individuals and those taking care of children. Public health authorities need to train personnel and draw from community-based resources to provide targeted support, information, and guidance to individuals during isolation. Such efforts could alleviate the negative impact isolation has on the mental and physical health of individuals and ensure compliance of the population with recommendations.

Long COVID Through a Public Health Lens: An Umbrella Review

Objectives: To synthesize existing evidence on prevalence as well as clinical and socio-economic aspects of Long COVID.

Methods: An umbrella review of reviews and a targeted evidence synthesis of their primary studies, including searches in four electronic databases, reference lists of included reviews, as well as related article lists of relevant publications.

Results: Synthesis included 23 reviews and 102 primary studies. Prevalence estimates ranged from 7.5% to 41% in non-hospitalized adults, 2.3%–53% in mixed adult samples, 37.6% in hospitalized adults, and 2%–3.5% in primarily non-hospitalized children. Preliminary evidence suggests that female sex, age, comorbidities, the severity of acute disease, and obesity are associated with Long COVID. Almost 50% of primary studies reported some degree of Long COVID-related social and family-life impairment, long absence periods off work, adjusted workloads, and loss of employment.

Conclusion: Long COVID will likely have a substantial public health impact. Current evidence is still heterogeneous and incomplete. To fully understand Long COVID, well-designed prospective studies with representative samples will be essential.

Patient Preference Studies for Advanced Prostate Cancer Treatment Along the Medical Product Life Cycle: Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Patient preference studies can inform decision-making across all stages of the medical product life cycle (MPLC). The treatment landscape for advanced prostate cancer (APC) treatment has substantially changed in recent years. However, the most patient-relevant aspects of APC treatment remain unclear. This systematic review of patient preference studies in APC aimed to summarize the evidence on patient preferences and patient-relevant aspects of APC treatments, and to evaluate the potential contribution of existing studies to decision-making within the respective stages of the MPLC.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies evaluating patient preferences related to APC treatment up to October 2020. Two reviewers independently performed screening, data extraction and quality assessment in duplicate. We descriptively summarized the findings and analyzed the studies regarding their contribution within the MPLC using an analytical framework.

RESULTS

Seven quantitative preference studies were included. One study each was conducted in the marketing approval and the health technology assessment (HTA) and reimbursement stage, and five were conducted in the post-marketing stage of the MPLC. While almost all stated to inform clinical practice, the specific contributions to clinical decision-making remained unclear for almost all studies. Evaluated attributes related to benefits, harms, and other treatment-related aspects and their relative importance varied relevantly between studies. All studies were judged of high quality overall, but some methodological issues regarding sample selection and the definition of patient-relevant treatment attributes were identified.

CONCLUSION

The most patient-relevant aspects regarding the benefits and harms of APC treatment are not yet established, and it remains unclear which APC treatments are preferred by patients. Findings from this study highlight the importance of transparent reporting and discussion of study findings according to their aims and with respect to their stage within the MPLC. Future research may benefit from using the MPLC framework for analyzing or determining the aims and design of patient preference studies.

​The SwissCovid Digital Proximity Tracing App after one year: Were expectations fulfilled?

​Digital proximity tracing has been promoted as a major technological innovation for its potential added benefits of greater speed, wider reach and better scalability compared with traditional manual contact tracing. First launched in Switzerland on 25 June 2020, the SwissCovid digital proximity tracing app has now been in use for more than one year. In light of this milestone, we raise the questions: What is currently known about the role of SwissCovid in mitigating the pandemic? Were the expectations fulfilled? ​In this review, we will summarise the current state of the literature from empirical studies on the adoption, performance and effectiveness of SwissCovid. The review consists of three sections. The first section summarizes findings from effectiveness studies, which suggest that SwissCovid exposure notifications contributed to preventive actions in 76% of exposure notification recipients and were associated with a faster quarantine time in some SwissCovid user groups. The second describes the public perception and current state of adoption of SwissCovid in Switzerland in light of prevalent misconceptions and overemphasised expectations. the third places the evidence on SwissCovid in an international context. Specifically, we compare key performance indicators of SwissCovid, which are of similar magnitude as for digital proximity tracing apps from other European countries. Using findings from Switzerland, we subsequently derive a preliminary measure of the population-level effectiveness of digital proximity tracing apps. We estimate that exposure notifications may have contributed to the notification and identification of 500 to 1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive app users per month. We explore why this effectiveness estimation is somewhat lower when compared with Germany or the United Kingdom. ​In light of the presented evidence, we conclude that digital proximity tracing works well in specific contexts, such as in mitigating non-household spread. However, future applications of digital proximity tracing should invest into stakeholder onboarding and increased process automatization - without deviating from the principles of voluntariness and user privacy.

Adherence and Association of Digital Proximity Tracing App Notifications With Earlier Time to Quarantine: Results From the Zurich SARS-CoV-2 Cohort Study

Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the SwissCovid digital proximity tracing (DPT) app in notifying exposed individuals and prompting them to quarantine earlier compared to individuals notified only by manual contact tracing (MCT). Methods: A population-based sample of cases and close contacts from the Zurich SARS-CoV-2 Cohort was surveyed regarding SwissCovid app use and SARS-CoV-2 exposure. We descriptively analyzed app adherence and effectiveness, and evaluated its effects on the time between exposure and quarantine among contacts using stratified multivariable time-to-event analyses. Results: We included 393 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and 261 close contacts. 62% of cases reported using SwissCovid and among those, 88% received and uploaded a notification code. 71% of close contacts were app users, of which 38% received a warning. Non-household contacts notified by SwissCovid started quarantine 1 day earlier and were more likely to quarantine earlier than those not warned by the app (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.15-2.03). Conclusion: These findings provide evidence that DPT may reach exposed contacts faster than MCT, with earlier quarantine and potential interruption of SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains.

Personalising add-on treatment with inhaled corticosteroids in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a benefit-harm modelling study

BACKGROUND

Since the benefit-harm balance of adding inhaled corticosteroids to long-acting β₂-agonists (LABA) and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is unclear, we evaluated this addition for a range of patient profiles.

METHODS

Analyses considered the effects of low-to-moderate doses of inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA compared with LABA and LAMA alone, outcome incidences, and preference weights assigned to averted moderate-to-severe exacerbations (benefit) and severe pneumonia, candidiasis, and dysphonia (harm). Using exponential models, we estimated the preference weight-adjusted 2-year net clinical benefit (ie, benefits outweighing harms) indices. Exacerbation risk thresholds for triggering inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA were established when the probability of a 2-year net clinical benefit reached 60%. We estimated the proportion of patients benefiting from added inhaled corticosteroids using an externally validated prediction model for acute exacerbations in primary care.

FINDINGS

Adding low-to-moderate dose inhaled corticosteroids to LABA and LAMA provided a net clinical benefit in patients with a 2-year baseline exacerbation risk of 54-83%. Low-dose inhaled corticosteroids showed a net clinical benefit if the baseline risk was 40-91%, but not at higher doses. The benefit was modified by blood eosinophil count (BEC) and age. Although no net benefit was associated with a BEC of less than 150 cells per μL, patients with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more had a net benefit from low-dose inhaled corticosteroids with a 2-year exacerbation risk of 32-95% in those aged 40-79 years and 41-93% in those older than 80 years. A moderate dose of inhaled corticosteroids showed a net benefit in patients younger than 80 years with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more at 52-86% 2-year exacerbation risk. Depending on the subgroups, the proportion of patients with a net benefit from added inhaled corticosteroids ranged from 0 to 68%.

INTERPRETATION

The net clinical benefit of adding different inhaled corticosteroid doses to LABA and LAMA varies greatly with exacerbation risk, BEC, and age. Personalised treatment decisions based on these factors and predicted exacerbation risks might reduce overtreatment and undertreatment with inhaled corticosteroids.

FUNDING

None.

Burden of post-COVID-19 syndrome and implications for healthcare service planning: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Longer-term consequences after SARS-CoV-2 infection are becoming an important burden to societies and healthcare systems. Data on post-COVID-19 syndrome in the general population are required for the timely planning of healthcare services and resources. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of impaired health status and physical and mental health symptoms among individuals at least six months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to characterize their healthcare utilization.

METHODS

This population-based prospective cohort study (Zurich SARS-CoV-2 Cohort) enrolled 431 adults from the general population with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported to health authorities between 27 February 2020 and 05 August 2020 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We evaluated the proportion of individuals reporting not to have fully recovered since SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the proportion reporting fatigue (Fatigue Assessment Scale), dyspnea (mMRC dyspnea scale) or depression (DASS-21) at six to eight months after diagnosis. Furthermore, the proportion of individuals with at least one healthcare contact after their acute illness was evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with these main outcomes.

RESULTS

Symptoms were present in 385 (89%) participants at diagnosis and 81 (19%) were initially hospitalized. At six to eight months, 111 (26%) reported not having fully recovered. 233 (55%) participants reported symptoms of fatigue, 96 (25%) had at least grade 1 dyspnea, and 111 (26%) had DASS-21 scores indicating symptoms of depression. 170 (40%) participants reported at least one general practitioner visit related to COVID-19 after acute illness, and 10% (8/81) of initially hospitalized individuals were rehospitalized. Individuals that have not fully recovered or suffer from fatigue, dyspnea or depression were more likely to have further healthcare contacts. However, a third of individuals (37/111) that have not fully recovered did not seek further care.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study, a relevant proportion of participants suffered from longer-term consequences after SARS-CoV-2 infection. With millions infected across the world, our findings emphasize the need for the timely planning of resources and patient-centered services for post-COVID-19 care.

A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland

Importance

Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have been released in several countries to help interrupt SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains. However, the effect of DCT on pandemic mitigation remains to be demonstrated.

Objective

To estimate key populations and performance indicators along the exposure notification cascade of the SwissCovid DCT app in a clearly defined regional and temporal context.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative effectiveness study was based on a simulation informed by measured data from issued quarantine recommendations and positive SARS-CoV-2 test results after DCT exposure notifications in the canton of Zurich. A stochastic model was developed to re-create the DCT notification cascade for Zurich. Population sizes at each cascade step were estimated using triangulation based on publicly available administrative and observational research data for the study duration from September 1 to October 31, 2020. The resultant estimates were checked for internal consistency and consistency with upstream or downstream estimates in the cascade. Stochastic sampling from data-informed parameter distributions was performed to explore the robustness of results. Subsequently, key performance indicators were evaluated to assess the potential contribution of DCT compared with manual contact tracing.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Receiving a voluntary quarantine recommendation and/or a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result after exposure notification.

Results

In September 2020, 537 app users received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result in Zurich, 324 of whom received and entered an upload authorization code. This code triggered an app notification for an estimated 1374 (95% simulation interval [SI], 932-2586) proximity contacts and led to 722 information hotline calls, with an estimated 170 callers (95% SI, 154-186) receiving a quarantine recommendation. An estimated 939 (95% SI, 720-1127) notified app users underwent testing for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 30 (95% SI, 23-36) had positive results after an app notification. Key indicator evaluations revealed that the DCT app triggered quarantine recommendations for the equivalent of 5% of all exposed contacts placed in quarantine by manual contact tracing. For every 10.9 (95% SI, 7.6-15.6) upload authorization codes entered in the app, 1 contact had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 after app notification. Longitudinal indicator analyses demonstrated bottlenecks in the notification cascade, because capacity limits were reached owing to an increased incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in October 2020.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this simulation study of the notification cascade of the SwissCovid DCT app, receipt of exposure notifications was associated with quarantine recommendations and identification of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. These findings in notified proximity contacts reflect important intermediary steps toward transmission prevention.

Drivers of Acceptance of COVID-19 Proximity Tracing Apps in Switzerland: Panel Survey Analysis

BACKGROUND

Digital proximity tracing apps have been released to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus known to cause COVID-19. However, it remains unclear how the acceptance and uptake of these apps can be improved.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the coverage of the SwissCovid app and the reasons for its nonuse in Switzerland during a period of increasing incidence of COVID-19 cases.

METHODS

We collected data between September 28 and October 8, 2020, via a nationwide online panel survey (COVID-19 Social Monitor, N=1511). We examined sociodemographic and behavioral factors associated with app use by using multivariable logistic regression, whereas reasons for app nonuse were analyzed descriptively.

RESULTS

Overall, 46.5% (703/1511) of the survey participants reported they used the SwissCovid app, which was an increase from 43.9% (662/1508) reported in the previous study wave conducted in July 2020. A higher monthly household income (ie, income >CHF 10,000 or >US $11,000 vs income ≤CHF 6000 or

CONCLUSIONS

Eliminating technical hurdles and communicating the benefits of digital proximity tracing apps are crucial to promote further uptake and adherence of such apps and, ultimately, enhance their effectiveness to aid pandemic mitigation strategies.

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Key Words

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• acceptance
• communication
• compliance
• digital contact tracing
• digital proximity tracing
• mHealth
• tracing
• uptake
• usability

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MESH Headings

• Adult
• Aged
• COVID-19/complications
• COVID-19/psychology
• COVID-19/transmission
• Contact Tracing/instrumentation
• Contact Tracing/trends
• Female
• Humans
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Mobile Applications/standards
• Mobile Applications/statistics & numerical data
• Physical Distancing
• Surveys and Questionnaires
• Switzerland

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Affiliation(s)

Viktor von Wyl Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Institute for Implementation Science in Health Care, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Marc Höglinger Winterthur Institute of Health Economics, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur, Switzerland
Chloé Sieber Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Marco Kaufmann Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
André Moser Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Miquel Serra-Burriel Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Tala Ballouz Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Dominik Menges Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Anja Frei Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Milo Alan Puhan Epdemiology, Biostatistics & Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland

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Systematic early versus late mobilization or standard early mobilization in mechanically ventilated adult ICU patients: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the effectiveness of systematic early mobilization in improving muscle strength and physical function in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage systematic literature search in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library until January 2019 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effects of early mobilization initiated within 7 days after ICU admission compared with late mobilization, standard early mobilization or no mobilization. Priority outcomes were Medical Research Council Sum Score (MRC-SS), incidence of ICU-acquired weakness (ICUAW), 6-min walk test (6MWT), proportion of patients reaching independence, time needed until walking, SF-36 Physical Function Domain Score (PFS) and SF-36 Physical Health Component Score (PCS). Meta-analysis was conducted where sufficient comparable evidence was available. We evaluated the certainty of evidence according to the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

We identified 12 eligible RCTs contributing data from 1304 participants. Two RCTs were categorized as comparing systematic early with late mobilization, nine with standard early mobilization and one with no mobilization. We found evidence for a benefit of systematic early mobilization compared to late mobilization for SF-36 PFS (MD 12.3; 95% CI 3.9-20.8) and PCS (MD 3.4; 95% CI 0.01-6.8), as well as on the proportion of patients reaching independence and the time needed to walking, but not for incidence of ICUAW (RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.38-1.03) or MRC-SS. For systematic early compared to standard early mobilization, we found no statistically significant benefit on MRC-SS (MD 5.8; 95% CI - 1.4 to 13.0), incidence of ICUAW (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.63-1.27), SF-36 PFS (MD 8.1; 95% CI - 15.3 to 31.4) or PCS (MD - 2.4; 95% CI - 6.1 to 1.3) or other priority outcomes except for change in 6MWT from baseline. Generally, effects appeared stronger for systematic early compared to late mobilization than to standard early mobilization. We judged the certainty of evidence for all outcomes as very low to low.

CONCLUSION

The evidence regarding a benefit of systematic early mobilization remained inconclusive. However, our findings indicate that the larger the difference in the timing between the intervention and the comparator, the more likely an RCT is to find a benefit for early mobilization.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42019122555).

Early evidence of effectiveness of digital contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

In the wake of the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), contact tracing has become a key element of strategies to control the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Given the rapid and intense spread of SARS-CoV-2, digital contact tracing has emerged as a potential complementary tool to support containment and mitigation efforts. Early modelling studies highlighted the potential of digital contact tracing to break transmission chains, and Google and Apple subsequently developed the Exposure Notification (EN) framework, making it available to the vast majority of smartphones. A growing number of governments have launched or announced EN-based contact tracing apps, but their effectiveness remains unknown. Here, we report early findings of the digital contact tracing app deployment in Switzerland. We demonstrate proof-of-principle that digital contact tracing reaches exposed contacts, who then test positive for SARS-CoV-2. This indicates that digital contact tracing is an effective complementary tool for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Continued technical improvement and international compatibility can further increase the efficacy, particularly also across country borders.

Net benefit of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people 75 years or older: a benefit-harm balance modeling study

BACKGROUND

We determined the risk thresholds above which statin use would be more likely to provide a net benefit for people over the age of 75 years without history of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

An exponential model was used to estimate the differences in expected benefit and harms in people treated with statins over a 10-year horizon versus not treated. The analysis was repeated 100,000 times to consider the statistical uncertainty and produce a distribution of the benefit-harm balance index from which we determined the 10-year CVD risk threshold where benefits outweighed the harms. We considered treatment estimates from trials and observational studies, baseline risks, patient preferences, and competing risks of non-CVD death, and statistical uncertainty.

RESULTS

Based on average preferences, statins were more likely to provide a net benefit at a 10-year CVD risk of 24% and 25% for men aged 75-79 years and 80-84 years, respectively, and 21% for women in both age groups. However, these thresholds varied significantly depending on differences in individual patient preferences for the statin-related outcomes, with interquartile ranges of 21-33% and 23-36% for men aged 75-79 years and 80-84 years, respectively, as well as 20-32% and 21-32% for women aged 75-79 years and 80-84 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Statins would more likely provide a net benefit for primary prevention in older people taking the average preferences if their CVD risk is well above 20%. However, the thresholds could be much higher or lower depending on preferences of individual patients, which suggests more emphasis should be placed on individual-based decision-making, instead of recommending statins for everyone based on a single or a small number of thresholds.

The hippocampus of the eastern rock sengi: cytoarchitecture, markers of neuronal function, principal cell numbers, and adult neurogenesis

The brains of sengis (elephant shrews, order Macroscelidae) have long been known to contain a hippocampus that in terms of allometric progression indices is larger than that of most primates and equal in size to that of humans. In this report, we provide descriptions of hippocampal cytoarchitecture in the eastern rock sengi (Elephantulus myurus), of the distributions of hippocampal calretinin, calbindin, parvalbumin, and somatostatin, of principal neuron numbers, and of cell numbers related to proliferation and neuronal differentiation in adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Sengi hippocampal cytoarchitecture is an amalgamation of characters that are found in CA1 of, e.g., guinea pig and rabbits and in CA3 and dentate gyrus of primates. Correspondence analysis of total cell numbers and quantitative relations between principal cell populations relate this sengi to macaque monkeys and domestic pigs, and distinguish the sengi from distinct patterns of relations found in humans, dogs, and murine rodents. Calretinin and calbindin are present in some cell populations that also express these proteins in other species, e.g., interneurons at the stratum oriens/alveus border or temporal hilar mossy cells, but neurons expressing these markers are often scarce or absent in other layers. The distributions of parvalbumin and somatostatin resemble those in other species. Normalized numbers of PCNA+ proliferating cells and doublecortin-positive (DCX+) differentiating cells of neuronal lineage fall within the overall ranges of murid rodents, but differed from three murid species captured in the same habitat in that fewer DCX+ cells relative to PCNA+ were observed. The large and well-differentiated sengi hippocampus is not accompanied by correspondingly sized cortical and subcortical limbic areas that are the main hippocampal sources of afferents and targets of efferents. This points to intrinsic hippocampal information processing as the selective advantage of the large sengi hippocampus.

Habitat-specific shaping of proliferation and neuronal differentiation in adult hippocampal neurogenesis of wild rodents

Daily life of wild mammals is characterized by a multitude of attractive and aversive stimuli. The hippocampus processes complex polymodal information associated with such stimuli and mediates adequate behavioral responses. How newly generated hippocampal neurons in wild animals contribute to hippocampal function is still a subject of debate. Here, we test the relationship between adult hippocampal neurogenesis (AHN) and habitat types. To this end, we compare wild Muridae species of southern Africa [Namaqua rock mouse (Micaelamys namaquensis), red veld rat (Aethomys chrysophilus), highveld gerbil (Tatera brantsii), and spiny mouse (Acomys spinosissimus)] with data from wild European Muridae [long-tailed wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), pygmy field mice (Apodemus microps), yellow-necked wood mice (Apodemus flavicollis), and house mice (Mus musculus domesticus)] from previous studies. The pattern of neurogenesis, expressed in normalized numbers of Ki67- and Doublecortin(DCX)-positive cells to total granule cells (GCs), is similar for the species from a southern African habitat. However, we found low proliferation, but high neuronal differentiation in rodents from the southern African habitat compared to rodents from the European environment. Within the African rodents, we observe additional regulatory and morphological traits in the hippocampus. Namaqua rock mice with previous pregnancies showed lower AHN compared to males and nulliparous females. The phylogenetically closely related species (Namaqua rock mouse and red veld rat) show a CA4, which is not usually observed in murine rodents. The specific features of the southern environment that may be associated with the high number of young neurons in African rodents still remain to be elucidated. This study provides the first evidence that a habitat can shape adult neurogenesis in rodents across phylogenetic groups.

[Biomechanics and histological examinations on the pathogenesis of appendicitis]

After appendectomy 60 appendices were examined for their biomechanical characteristics. The active contraction capability and the relaxation after noradrenaline were registered in Tyrode's solution by a tension recorder, and a length/tension graph was drawn up. After histological examination of the appendices, the findings were classified as the classical inflammation stadium. It was shown that the appendix wall can retain its physiological properties up to an advanced stage of inflammation. Physiological decomposition and paralysis of the appendix wall occur only when gangrene sets. Examination also showed that in the subacute inflammation stage scars are formed which cause motility disorders which, in their turn, also cause inflammation.