Centering Earth in policy-making Jonathan S. Blake and Nils Gilman Stanford University Press, 2024. 326 pp

A pair of authors advocate scaling governance structures to better address planetary crises.

Data-driven hope for the planet Hannah Ritchie Little, Brown Spark, 2024. 352 pp

A data scientist offers an optimistic reality check for the Anthropocene.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Mycorrhizal feedbacks influence global forest structure and diversity

One mechanism proposed to explain high species diversity in tropical systems is strong negative conspecific density dependence (CDD), which reduces recruitment of juveniles in proximity to conspecific adult plants. Although evidence shows that plant-specific soil pathogens can drive negative CDD, trees also form key mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi, which may counteract these effects. Across 43 large-scale forest plots worldwide, we tested whether ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibit weaker negative CDD than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. We further tested for conmycorrhizal density dependence (CMDD) to test for benefit from shared mutualists. We found that the strength of CDD varies systematically with mycorrhizal type, with ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibiting higher sapling densities with increasing adult densities than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. Moreover, we found evidence of positive CMDD for tree species of both mycorrhizal types. Collectively, these findings indicate that mycorrhizal interactions likely play a foundational role in global forest diversity patterns and structure.

Making the most of scarcity Fredrik Albritton Jonsson and Carl Wennerlind Harvard University Press, 2023. 304 pp

A pair of historians dig into the deep ideological roots of our planetary predicament.

Passive monitoring of avian habitat on working lands

Intensive agricultural landscapes are a challenge for wildlife managers, policy makers, and landowners hoping to increase the diversity of desired wildlife species, such as grassland birds, which require urgent conservation action. In intensive agricultural landscapes, like those of the midwestern USA, most land area is privately owned and operated and managed primarily for production. Conducting ecological research in intensive agricultural landscapes thus requires collaborative approaches aimed at farm owners and operators. Recent advances in acoustic data collection and high-resolution habitat mapping, including low-cost acoustic recorders and satellite remote sensing, may be well positioned to address this challenge by enabling expanded assessments and monitoring of wildlife populations and habitats across regions. This study examined fine grain habitat characteristics and their relationship with avian biodiversity in intensive agricultural landscapes at 44 agricultural sites across Iowa, USA. Passive acoustic monitoring and manual identification of bird species allowed for measurement of vocalizing bird richness. High resolution mapping of noncrop vegetation provided detailed information on small noncrop vegetation habitat complexes within row-crop agriculture. Measures of image texture provided characterizations of compositional heterogeneity within noncrop vegetation. General linear Poisson modeling demonstrated robust associations between noncrop vegetation and vocalizing bird richness, yet variation in grassland bird richness was not well predicted by noncrop vegetation. Noncrop vegetation texture demonstrated potential as a predictor of vocalizing bird richness, though not better than or when combined with noncrop vegetated area, indicating it may not be an independent measure of habitat quality. Passive acoustic monitoring resulted in useful data at 44 out of 60 originally selected sites, with some lost to failed recorders and/or collaboration issues. Challenges remain in detecting habitat characteristics that promote grassland birds in row crop landscapes. Working toward probabilistic research design across privately owned working landscapes and incorporating more detailed management practice information would improve the transferability of this approach to farmland management and policy.

Research priorities for global food security under extreme events

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

•

We asked experts for top threats to global food security from extreme events

•

We find unresolved governance challenges underpin many of the key threats

•

We also asked experts for top outstanding research priorities on this topic

•

Coordination to design, adopt, and govern resilient food systems is needed

Heat waves, floods, droughts, pest outbreaks and diseases, financial crises, and human conflicts are threatening the production and supply of food around the world. These extreme events are on the rise, and our ability to prepare for them seems limited. Multiple events occurring at the same time compound the problem. Research teams and policymakers are developing solutions to improve the resilience of food systems, but this is often done in isolation—tackling one problem at a time. In this article we bring together food system experts to identify the top threats over the next two decades and priority research questions to address them. We find that unresolved governance challenges in international relations underpin many of the key threats and that coordinated research is needed to help design and adopt systems of governance for food systems that are resilient to extreme events in the future.

Shaping Earth in our image Julia Adeney Thomas, Ed. Cambridge University Press, 2022. 300 pp

An interdisciplinary interrogation of the Anthropocene misses the chance to probe broader and deeper.

Ten facts about land systems for sustainability

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits-"win-wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

New views on ancient peoples David Graeber and David Wengrow Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021. 704 pp

[Figure: see text].

Assessing the biogeographical and socio-ecological representativeness of the ILTER site network

The challenges posed by climate and land use change are increasingly complex, with rising and accelerating impacts on the global environmental system. Novel environmental and ecosystem research needs to properly interpret system changes and derive management recommendations across scales. This largely depends on advances in the establishment of an internationally harmonised, long-term operating and representative infrastructure for environmental observation. This paper presents an analysis evaluating 743 formally accredited sites of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network in 47 countries with regard to their spatial distribution and related biogeographical and socio-ecological representativeness. "Representedness" values were computed from six global datasets. The analysis revealed a dense coverage of Northern temperate regions and anthropogenic zones most notably in the US, Europe and East Asia. Significant gaps are present in economically less developed and anthropogenically less impacted hot and barren regions like Northern and Central Africa and inner-continental parts of South America. These findings provide the arguments for our recommendations regarding the geographic expansion for the further development of the ILTER network.

Evolution: Biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Human influences are reshaping plant communities around the world through both extinctions and species gains. New work relating biodiversity shifts to rapid changes in climate and land use highlights the need for new biogeographic frameworks to understand evolutionary change in the Anthropocene.

The spatial and temporal domains of modern ecology

To understand ecological phenomena, it is necessary to observe their behaviour across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Since this need was first highlighted in the 1980s, technology has opened previously inaccessible scales to observation. To help to determine whether there have been corresponding changes in the scales observed by modern ecologists, we analysed the resolution, extent, interval and duration of observations (excluding experiments) in 348 studies that have been published between 2004 and 2014. We found that observational scales were generally narrow, because ecologists still primarily use conventional field techniques. In the spatial domain, most observations had resolutions ≤1 m² and extents ≤10,000 ha. In the temporal domain, most observations were either unreplicated or infrequently repeated (>1 month interval) and ≤1 year in duration. Compared with studies conducted before 2004, observational durations and resolutions appear largely unchanged, but intervals have become finer and extents larger. We also found a large gulf between the scales at which phenomena are actually observed and the scales those observations ostensibly represent, raising concerns about observational comprehensiveness. Furthermore, most studies did not clearly report scale, suggesting that it remains a minor concern. Ecologists can better understand the scales represented by observations by incorporating autocorrelation measures, while journals can promote attentiveness to scale by implementing scale-reporting standards.

Evolving the Anthropocene: linking multi-level selection with long-term social-ecological change

To what degree is cultural multi-level selection responsible for the rise of environmentally transformative human behaviors? And vice versa? From the clearing of vegetation using fire to the emergence of agriculture and beyond, human societies have increasingly sustained themselves through practices that enhance environmental productivity through ecosystem engineering. At the same time, human societies have increased in scale and complexity from mobile bands of hunter-gatherers to telecoupled world systems. We propose that these long-term changes are coupled through positive feedbacks among social and environmental changes, coevolved primarily through selection acting at the group level and above, and that this can be tested by combining archeological evidence with mechanistic experiments using an agent-based virtual laboratory (ABVL) approach. A more robust understanding of whether and how cultural multi-level selection couples human social change with environmental transformation may help in addressing the long-term sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene.

An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm

We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earth's 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature-a companion to the Paris Climate Deal-to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.

Meta-studies in land use science: Current coverage and prospects

Land use science has traditionally used case-study approaches for in-depth investigation of land use change processes and impacts. Meta-studies synthesize findings across case-study evidence to identify general patterns. In this paper, we provide a review of meta-studies in land use science. Various meta-studies have been conducted, which synthesize deforestation and agricultural land use change processes, while other important changes, such as urbanization, wetland conversion, and grassland dynamics have hardly been addressed. Meta-studies of land use change impacts focus mostly on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles, while meta-studies of socioeconomic consequences are rare. Land use change processes and land use change impacts are generally addressed in isolation, while only few studies considered trajectories of drivers through changes to their impacts and their potential feedbacks. We provide a conceptual framework for linking meta-studies of land use change processes and impacts for the analysis of coupled human-environmental systems. Moreover, we provide suggestions for combining meta-studies of different land use change processes to develop a more integrated theory of land use change, and for combining meta-studies of land use change impacts to identify tradeoffs between different impacts. Land use science can benefit from an improved conceptualization of land use change processes and their impacts, and from new methods that combine meta-study findings to advance our understanding of human-environmental systems.

The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene

Human activity is leaving a pervasive and persistent signature on Earth. Vigorous debate continues about whether this warrants recognition as a new geologic time unit known as the Anthropocene. We review anthropogenic markers of functional changes in the Earth system through the stratigraphic record. The appearance of manufactured materials in sediments, including aluminum, plastics, and concrete, coincides with global spikes in fallout radionuclides and particulates from fossil fuel combustion. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the past century. Rates of sea-level rise and the extent of human perturbation of the climate system exceed Late Holocene changes. Biotic changes include species invasions worldwide and accelerating rates of extinction. These combined signals render the Anthropocene stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene and earlier epochs.

Synthesis in land change science: methodological patterns, challenges, and guidelines

Global and regional economic and environmental changes are increasingly influencing local land-use, livelihoods, and ecosystems. At the same time, cumulative local land changes are driving global and regional changes in biodiversity and the environment. To understand the causes and consequences of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena and world regions most commonly studied are presented. Significant challenges to successful synthesis research in LCS are also identified, including issues of interpretability and comparability across case-studies and the limits of and biases in the geographic coverage of case studies. Nevertheless, synthesis methods based on local case studies will remain essential for generating systematic global and regional understanding of local land change for the foreseeable future, and multiple opportunities exist to accelerate and enhance the reliability of synthetic LCS research in the future. Demand for global and regional knowledge generation will continue to grow to support adaptation and mitigation policies consistent with both the local realities and regional and global environmental and economic contexts of land change.

Exploring agricultural livelihood transitions with an agent-based virtual laboratory: global forces to local decision-making

Rural populations are undergoing rapid changes in both their livelihoods and land uses, with associated impacts on ecosystems, global biogeochemistry, and climate change. A primary challenge is, thus, to explain these shifts in terms of the actors and processes operating within a variety of land systems in order to understand how land users might respond locally to future changes in broader-scale environmental and economic conditions. Using 'induced intensification' theory as a benchmark, we develop a generalized agent-based model to investigate mechanistic explanations of relationships between agricultural intensity and population density, environmental suitability, and market influence. Land-use and livelihood decisions modeled from basic micro-economic theories generated spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural intensification consistent with predictions of induced intensification theory. Further, agent actions in response to conditions beyond those described by induced intensification theory were explored, revealing that interactions among environmental constraints, population pressure, and market influence may produce transitions to multiple livelihood regimes of varying market integration. The result is new hypotheses that could modify and enrich understanding of the classic relationship between agricultural intensity and population density. The strength of this agent-based model and the experimental results is the generalized form of the decision-making processes underlying land-use and livelihood transitions, creating the prospect of a virtual laboratory for systematically generating hypotheses of how agent decisions and interactions relate to observed land-use and livelihood patterns across diverse land systems.

Mapping avian influenza transmission risk at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.

Hepatocyte transplantation for inherited metabolic diseases of the liver

Inherited metabolic diseases of the liver are characterized by deficiency of a hepatic enzyme or protein often resulting in life-threatening disease. The remaining liver function is usually normal. For most patients, treatment consists of supportive therapy, and the only curative option is liver transplantation. Hepatocyte transplantation is a promising therapy for patients with inherited metabolic liver diseases, which offers a less invasive and fully reversible approach. Procedure-related complications are rare. Here, we review the experience of hepatocyte transplantation for metabolic liver diseases and discuss the major obstacles that need to be overcome to establish hepatocyte transplantation as a reliable treatment option in the clinic.

All is not loss: plant biodiversity in the anthropocene

Anthropogenic global changes in biodiversity are generally portrayed in terms of massive native species losses or invasions caused by recent human disturbance. Yet these biodiversity changes and others caused directly by human populations and their use of land tend to co-occur as long-term biodiversity change processes in the Anthropocene. Here we explore contemporary anthropogenic global patterns in vascular plant species richness at regional landscape scales by combining spatially explicit models and estimates for native species loss together with gains in exotics caused by species invasions and the introduction of agricultural domesticates and ornamental exotic plants. The patterns thus derived confirm that while native losses are likely significant across at least half of Earth's ice-free land, model predictions indicate that plant species richness has increased overall in most regional landscapes, mostly because species invasions tend to exceed native losses. While global observing systems and models that integrate anthropogenic species loss, introduction and invasion at regional landscape scales remain at an early stage of development, integrating predictions from existing models within a single assessment confirms their vast global extent and significance while revealing novel patterns and their potential drivers. Effective global stewardship of plant biodiversity in the Anthropocene will require integrated frameworks for observing, modeling and forecasting the different forms of anthropogenic biodiversity change processes at regional landscape scales, towards conserving biodiversity within the novel plant communities created and sustained by human systems.

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for ¼ of the sample data which was not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere

Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.