Liver histology is associated with long-term clinical outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the risk of long-term clinical outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis in relation to liver histology. We aimed to study this using a real-world cohort.

METHODS

Adults (N = 702) recorded on Vanderbilt University Medical Center's Synthetic Derivative database (1984-2021) with evidence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis on liver biopsy were followed from the first biopsy until the first clinical event or last database entry (median: 4.7 y). Risks of cirrhosis (N = 650), other noncirrhotic liver-related (N = 702) and cardiovascular-related outcomes (N = 660), and mortality due to liver, cardiovascular, or cancer events (N = 660) were determined as a function of baseline histology (fibrosis stage [F], lobular inflammation grade [LI], hepatocyte ballooning grade [HB], and steatosis score) adjusting for sex, age, diabetes, and weight-loss surgery.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis risk was reduced for lower versus higher fibrosis stage (HR: F0-1 vs. F3: 0.22 [95% CI: 0.12-0.42]), LI1 versus LI2-3 (0.42 [0.19-0.97]), and HB1 versus HB2 (0.20 [0.08-0.50]). Lower fibrosis stage was associated with significantly lower risks of liver-related outcomes versus F4 cirrhosis (eg, F0-1: 0.12 [0.05-0.25]), whereas no differences were seen across baseline lobular inflammation, hepatocyte ballooning, and steatosis grades/scores. Lower versus higher lobular inflammation grade was associated with lower risks for liver-related outcomes in patients with weight-loss surgery. There was a trend for lower risks for cardiovascular-related and any long-term outcomes with lower versus higher fibrosis stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Fibrosis stage and lobular inflammation and hepatocyte ballooning grades predict the risk of long-term outcomes, supporting the use of these histological features as potential surrogate markers of disease progression or clinical outcomes.

Metabolic Syndrome Traits Increase the Risk of Major Adverse Liver Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) increases the risk for major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs), including cirrhosis and its complications. Patients with T2D frequently have other traits of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). It remains uncertain whether there is a synergistic effect of accumulating MetS traits on future MALO risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients with T2D without a history of liver disease were identified from national registers in Sweden from 1998 to 2021. MetS traits included hypertension, low HDL level, hypertriglyceridemia, obesity, and albuminuria, in addition to T2D. MALO events were identified based on administrative coding from national registers until 31 October 2022. Data were analyzed using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 230,992 patients were identified (median age 64 years; 58% male), of whom 3,215 (1.39%) developed MALOs over a median follow-up of 9.9 years. Compared with patients with one MetS trait (only T2D) at baseline, those with more than one MetS trait had a higher rate of MALOs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.33, 95% CI 1.53-3.54). The rate of MALOs increased progressively with increasing numbers of MetS traits at baseline (aHR 1.28 per added trait, 95% CI 1.23-1.33). During follow-up, patients who acquired additional MetS traits had a progressively higher rate of MALOs. The MetS trait with the largest association with incident MALOs was hypertension (aHR 2.06, 95% CI 1.57-2.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Having or acquiring additional traits of MetS increase the rate of progression to MALOs in patients with T2D. These results could be used to inform screening initiatives for liver disease.

Prevalence and risk factors of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in south Central Uganda: A cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Despite numerous risk factors and serious consequences, little is known about metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) at population level in Africa.

AIM

The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of MASLD in people living with and without HIV in Uganda.

METHODS

We collected data from 37 communities in South Central Uganda between May 2016 and May 2018. We estimated MASLD prevalence using the fatty liver index and advanced liver fibrosis using the dynamic aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio. We collected additional data on sociodemographics, HIV and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association between HIV, CVD risk factors and MASLD.

RESULTS

We included 759 people with HIV and 704 HIV-negative participants aged 35-49. MASLD prevalence was 14% in women and 8% in men; advanced liver fibrosis prevalence was estimated to be <1%. MASLD prevalence was more common in women (15% vs. 13%) and men (9% vs. 6%) with HIV. Being female (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-3.3) was associated with a higher odds of MASLD after adjustment for confounders; HIV infection was borderline associated with MASLD (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0-2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

In a relatively young cohort in Uganda, 14% of women and 8% of men had MASLD. There was an indication of an association between HIV and MASLD in multivariable analysis. These data are the first to describe the population-level burden of MASLD in sub-Saharan Africa using data from a population-based cohort.

Evaluation of mucosal-associated invariant T-cells as a potential biomarker to predict infection risk in liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Infection is a serious complication in patients with cirrhosis. Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are involved in the immune defense against infections and known to be impaired in several chronic conditions, including cirrhosis. Here, we evaluated if MAIT cell levels in peripheral blood are associated with risk of bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis seen at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 2016 and 2019 were included. Levels of MAIT cells in peripheral blood were determined using flow cytometry. Baseline and follow-up data after at least two years of follow-up were collected by chart review for the primary outcome (bacterial infection) and secondary outcomes (decompensation and death). Competing risk and Cox regression were performed.

RESULTS

We included 106 patients with cirrhosis. The median MAIT cells fraction in the circulation was 0.8% in cirrhosis compared to 6.1% in healthy controls. In contrast to our hypothesis, we found an association in the adjusted analysis between relatively preserved MAIT cell levels, and a slightly higher risk to develop bacterial infections (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (aSHR) 1.15 (95%CI = 1.01-1.31). However, MAIT cell levels were not associated with the risk of hepatic decompensation (aSHR 1.19 (95%CI = 0.91-1.56)) nor with death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.10 (95%CI = 0.97-1.22)).

CONCLUSIONS

Relatively preserved MAIT cell levels in blood of patients with cirrhosis were associated with a somewhat higher risk of bacterial infections. The clinical relevance of this might not be strong. MAIT cells might however be an interesting biomarker to explore in future studies.

Risk of major adverse liver outcomes among first-degree relatives of individuals with MASLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in relatives of patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, granular and longitudinal evidence is lacking on the future risk of MALO among family members of individuals with MASLD.

METHODS

We identified 3526 first-degree relatives (FDRs) and 11 079 general population comparators to 1328 patients with MASLD diagnosed between 1974 and 2021, with detailed clinical data, including liver histology in 71% of patients. MALO was defined through diagnostic coding for cirrhosis or its complications. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for MALO among FDRs compared to general population comparators. Cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks was calculated.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 13.4 years, there were 65 (2%, 1.12/1000 person-years) and 225 (2%, 1.26/1000 person-years) MALO events in FDRs and general population comparators respectively. After adjusting for demographic factors and comorbidities, FDRs were at no increased risk of MALO (aHR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.74-1.33). Increased relative rates of MALOs were, however, observed in some subgroups, including parents, although absolute risk estimates were low and comparable to the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

FDRs of patients with MASLD did not have a higher rate of incident MALO than the general population. Since the absolute risk of MALO in relatives of patients with MASLD was low, these results do not support systematic screening of MASLD-related fibrosis in relatives of patients with MASLD.

Statin initiation after myocardial infarction in patients with alcohol-related liver disease: A nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Secondary prevention with statins improves clinical outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI). We aimed to compare odds of statin initiation after MI in patients with co-existing alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) to the general population, and the association between statin initiation and mortality in the patients with ALD.

METHODS

All statin-naïve patients with ALD and a first-time MI between 2006 and 2020 were identified from Swedish healthcare registers and matched for age, sex, and year of MI with up to ten ALD-free general population controls with a first-time MI. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for statin initiation within 30 days after MI for ALD patients versus controls. Cox regression was used in patients with ALD to compare mortality between statin initiators and non-initiators.

RESULTS

Of the 276 patients with a first-time MI and ALD, 206 (74.6%) were male, the median age was 67 (interquartile range 62-72), 151 (54.7%) had cirrhosis, and 62 (22.5%) had decompensated cirrhosis. 1769 matched controls were included. Initiation of statins was less common in ALD patients (50.0%) than controls (89.2%, adjusted OR = .15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .10-.20). Among patients with ALD, statin initiators and non-initiators were followed for a median of 3.9 (interquartile range = 1.8-7.7) and 1.9 years (interquartile range = .5-4.4), respectively. Statin initiators had lower mortality than non-initiators (adjusted hazard ratio = .41, 95%CI = .28-.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with ALD less often initiated statins after MI than the general population. Statin initiation was associated with improved survival, suggesting that patients with ALD might be undertreated following MI.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease

Importance

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis.

Objective

To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests.

Results

A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and risk of major adverse liver outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Phase II trials suggest glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1) agonists resolve metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis but do not affect fibrosis regression. We aimed to determine the long-term causal effect of GLP1 agonists on the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in patients with any chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

We used observational data from Swedish healthcare registers 2010-2020 to emulate a target trial of GLP1 agonists in eligible patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. We used an inverse-probability weighted marginal structural model to compare parametric estimates of 10-year MALO risk (decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or MALO-related death) in initiators of GLP1 agonists with non-initiators. We randomly sampled 5% of the non-initiators to increase computational efficiency.

RESULTS

GLP1 agonist initiators had a 10-year risk of MALO at 13.3% (42/1026) vs 14.6% in non-initiators (1079/15 633) in intention-to-treat analysis (risk ratio (RR)=0.91, 95% CI=0.50 to 1.32). The corresponding 10-year per-protocol risk estimates were 7.4% (22/1026) and 14.4% (1079/15 633), respectively (RR=0.51, 95% CI=0.14 to 0.88). The per-protocol risk estimates at 6 years were 5.4% (21/1026) vs 9.0% (933/15 633) (RR=0.60, 95% CI=0.29 to 0.90) and at 8 years 7.2% (22/1026) vs 11.7% (1036/15 633) (RR=0.61, 95% CI=0.21 to 1.01).

CONCLUSION

In patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes who adhered to therapy over time, GLP1 agonists may result in lower risk of MALO. This suggests that GLP1 agonists are promising agents to reduce risk of chronic liver disease progression in patients with concurrent type 2 diabetes, although this needs to be corroborated in randomised trials.

Serum ferritin levels can predict long-term outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

OBJECTIVE

Hyperferritinaemia is associated with liver fibrosis severity in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), but the longitudinal implications have not been thoroughly investigated. We assessed the role of serum ferritin in predicting long-term outcomes or death.

DESIGN

We evaluated the relationship between baseline serum ferritin and longitudinal events in a multicentre cohort of 1342 patients. Four survival models considering ferritin with confounders or non-invasive scoring systems were applied with repeated five-fold cross-validation schema. Prediction performance was evaluated in terms of Harrell's C-index and its improvement by including ferritin as a covariate.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time was 96 months. Liver-related events occurred in 7.7%, hepatocellular carcinoma in 1.9%, cardiovascular events in 10.9%, extrahepatic cancers in 8.3% and all-cause mortality in 5.8%. Hyperferritinaemia was associated with a 50% increased risk of liver-related events and 27% of all-cause mortality. A stepwise increase in baseline ferritin thresholds was associated with a statistical increase in C-index, ranging between 0.02 (lasso-penalised Cox regression) and 0.03 (ridge-penalised Cox regression); the risk of developing liver-related events mainly increased from threshold 215.5 µg/L (median HR=1.71 and C-index=0.71) and the risk of overall mortality from threshold 272 µg/L (median HR=1.49 and C-index=0.70). The inclusion of serum ferritin thresholds (215.5 µg/L and 272 µg/L) in predictive models increased the performance of Fibrosis-4 and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score in the longitudinal risk assessment of liver-related events (C-indices>0.71) and overall mortality (C-indices>0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the potential use of serum ferritin values for predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with MASLD.

Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests to screen for at-risk MASH-An individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is a need to reduce the screen failure rate (SFR) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) clinical trials (MASH+F2-3; MASH+F4) and identify people with high-risk MASH (MASH+F2-4) in clinical practice. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive tests (NITs) screening approaches for these target conditions.

METHODS

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported.

RESULTS

We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%.

CONCLUSIONS

Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.

Estrogen receptor activation remodels TEAD1 gene expression to alleviate hepatic steatosis

Sex-based differences in obesity-related hepatic malignancies suggest the protective roles of estrogen. Using a preclinical model, we dissected estrogen receptor (ER) isoform-driven molecular responses in high-fat diet (HFD)-induced liver diseases of male and female mice treated with or without an estrogen agonist by integrating liver multi-omics data. We found that selective ER activation recovers HFD-induced molecular and physiological liver phenotypes. HFD and systemic ER activation altered core liver pathways, beyond lipid metabolism, that are consistent between mice and primates. By including patient cohort data, we uncovered that ER-regulated enhancers govern central regulatory and metabolic genes with clinical significance in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients, including the transcription factor TEAD1. TEAD1 expression increased in MASLD patients, and its downregulation by short interfering RNA reduced intracellular lipid content. Subsequent TEAD small molecule inhibition improved steatosis in primary human hepatocyte spheroids by suppressing lipogenic pathways. Thus, TEAD1 emerged as a new therapeutic candidate whose inhibition ameliorates hepatic steatosis.

Disentangling the contributions of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-related liver disease towards dementia: A population-based cohort study

AIMS

The aim of the study was to disentangle the contributions of alcohol and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) towards dementia by independently measuring the association between alcohol use disorder (AUD) alone and ALD with dementia.

DESIGN

This was a nation-wide cohort study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in Sweden from 1987 to 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

DELIVER (DEcoding the epidemiology of LIVER disease in Sweden) cohort, containing administrative codes on patients with chronic liver disease from the National Patient Register and other registers between 1987 and 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

International Classification of Disease 9th (ICD-9) and 10th (ICD-10) version codes were used to define the presence of AUD, ALD and dementia. The associations of AUD alone and ALD with incident dementia were estimated using Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. Cumulative incidences were also calculated accounting for competing risks of death.

FINDINGS

A total of 128 884 individuals with AUD alone, 17 754 with ALD and 2 479 049 controls were identified. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 13 395 (10.4%), 2187 (12.3%) and 138 925 (5.6%) dementia cases were identified in these groups, respectively. Dementia rates were increased in AUD alone [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 4.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.5-4.6] and in ALD (aHR = 8.6, 95% CI = 8.3-9.0) compared with controls. AUD alone was also associated with increased rates of vascular dementia (aHR = 2.3, 95% CI = 2.2-2.5) and Alzheimer's disease (aHR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4), while ALD was only associated with vascular dementia (aHR = 2.7, 95% CI = 2.3-3.2). The median age at dementia diagnosis was 67 years [interquartile range (IQR) = 56-76] in AUD alone and 63 years (IQR = 56-71) in ALD compared with 85 years (IQR = 79-89) in controls.

CONCLUSION

In Sweden, patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) appear to have increased rates of dementia and diagnosis at a younger age, compared with patients without AUD. Concurrent alcohol-related liver disease appears to increase the diagnosis rate and lower the median age further.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease.

METHODS

Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Liver stiffness predicts progression to liver-related events in patients with chronic liver disease - A cohort study of 14 414 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker of liver fibrosis. It is uncertain if LSM can predict risk for future liver-related outcomes in large, heterogenous populations.

METHODS

This Swedish multi-centre cohort study included patients (n = 14 414) from 16 sites who underwent LSM by VCTE between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were ascertained from national registers. We investigated progression to cirrhosis with portal hypertension or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), separately. Cox regression was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). Harrel's C-index was used to measure discrimination of VCTE.

RESULTS

Included patients had a median age of 46 (interquartile range 34-57), median LSM of 5.9 kPa (4.6-8.0), 59% were male, and the majority had hepatitis C (50.1%). During a median follow-up of 5.9 (4.3-8.0) years, 402 patients (2.7%) developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension. In patients with an LSM ≥25 kPa, 28.7% developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension within 5 years of follow-up, while only .6% of patients with an LSM <10 kPa did. This translated to a HR of 48.3 (95% confidence interval = 37.6-62.0). VCTE had a high discriminative ability, with C-indices above .80 for most liver diseases, including .82 for MASLD. Similar findings were seen for incident HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased LSM by VCTE was associated with an increased risk of progression to both cirrhosis with portal hypertension, and to HCC, and had a high discriminative ability across different aetiologies of chronic liver diseases. These results support the use of VCTE to guide follow-up and treatment decisions.

Developing and validating clinical prediction models in hepatology - An overview for clinicians

Prediction models are everywhere in clinical medicine. We use them to assign a diagnosis or a prognosis, and there have been continuous efforts to develop better prediction models. It is important to understand the fundamentals of prediction modelling, thus, we herein describe nine steps to develop and validate a clinical prediction model with the intention of implementing it in clinical practice: Determine if there is a need for a new prediction model; define the purpose and intended use of the model; assess the quality and quantity of the data you wish to develop the model on; develop the model using sound statistical methods; generate risk predictions on the probability scale (0-100%); evaluate the performance of the model in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility; validate the model using bootstrapping to correct for the apparent optimism in performance; validate the model on external datasets to assess the generalisability and transportability of the model; and finally publish the model so that it can be implemented or validated by others.

Interactions between the metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption increases the risk of liver disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [MASLD]) share many features, including certain pathophysiological mechanisms, susceptibility genes, and histological lesions. However, the natural history of the two diseases, studied separately, is significantly different, with ALD being associated with a higher risk of cirrhosis and liver-related mortality. Moreover, evidence suggests an interactive effect between ALD and metabolic risk factors that are associated with NAFLD on the risk of progressive fibrosis and development of cirrhosis. Patients with both a high consumption of alcohol and metabolic risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes, should therefore be considered a particularly high-risk group for cirrhosis. Additional studies regarding the efficacy of screening for advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in these risk groups are needed. The most effective and established method for reducing the risk of progression in ALD is alcohol abstinence, whereas weight loss is effective in NAFLD. In this narrative review, we introduce the reader to the literature of the field and present key studies showing this interactive effect.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy.

METHODS

Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries.

RESULTS

Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

A global action agenda for turning the tide on fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fatty liver disease is a major public health threat due to its very high prevalence and related morbidity and mortality. Focused and dedicated interventions are urgently needed to target disease prevention, treatment, and care.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We developed an aligned, prioritized action agenda for the global fatty liver disease community of practice. Following a Delphi methodology over 2 rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the action priorities using Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a 4-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. Priorities were revised between rounds, and in R2, panelists also ranked the priorities within 6 domains: epidemiology, treatment and care, models of care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. The consensus fatty liver disease action agenda encompasses 29 priorities. In R2, the mean percentage of "agree" responses was 82.4%, with all individual priorities having at least a super-majority of agreement (> 66.7% "agree"). The highest-ranked action priorities included collaboration between liver specialists and primary care doctors on early diagnosis, action to address the needs of people living with multiple morbidities, and the incorporation of fatty liver disease into relevant non-communicable disease strategies and guidance.

CONCLUSIONS

This consensus-driven multidisciplinary fatty liver disease action agenda developed by care providers, clinical researchers, and public health and policy experts provides a path to reduce the prevalence of fatty liver disease and improve health outcomes. To implement this agenda, concerted efforts will be needed at the global, regional, and national levels.

Long-term major adverse liver outcomes in 1,260 patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD

Background & Aims

Long-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.

Results

MALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2-8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).

Conclusions

This study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.

Impact and implications

Several implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.

Misclassified Alcohol-related Liver Disease is Common in Presumed Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease and Highly Increases Risk for Future Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol overconsumption is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). How commonly this occurs and how it affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) is not well known.

METHODS

We did a register-based cohort study, including all patients with a diagnosis of MASLD in Sweden between 1987 and 2020. Patients were stratified on co-occurrence of diagnoses of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) prior to MASLD diagnosis. Incident MALOs were derived from national registers. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident MALO.

RESULTS

A total of 15,107 patients with MASLD were identified. The median age was 55 years, and 52% were female. Of the patients, 1843 (12%) had a prior diagnosis of ALD or AUD. During follow-up, a further 787 patients (5.2%) received a diagnosis of ALD or AUD. Patients with previous ALD or AUD diagnoses at or before baseline had considerably higher rates of MALOs compared with patients without (19.5% vs 7.8%; adjusted HR, 3.12; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-3.55). Acquiring an ALD or AUD diagnosis after MASLD diagnosis was associated with higher rates of MALOs (adjusted HR, 5.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.90-6.88).

CONCLUSIONS

ALD or AUD is commonly diagnosed prior to or after MASLD diagnosis. Such patients have considerably higher rates of progression to MALOs. Correctly separating between MASLD and ALD is vital to assess prognosis.

Implementation of a liver health check in people with type 2 diabetes

As morbidity and mortality related to potentially preventable liver diseases are on the rise globally, early detection of liver fibrosis offers a window of opportunity to prevent disease progression. Early detection of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease allows for initiation and reinforcement of guidance on bodyweight management, risk stratification for advanced liver fibrosis, and treatment optimisation of diabetes and other metabolic complications. Identification of alcohol-related liver disease provides the opportunity to support patients with detoxification and abstinence programmes. In all patient groups, identification of cirrhosis ensures that patients are enrolled in surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma and portal hypertension. When considering early detection strategies, success can be achieved from applying ad-hoc screening for liver fibrosis in established frameworks of care. Patients with type 2 diabetes are an important group to consider case findings of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, as up to 19% have advanced fibrosis (which is ten times higher than the general population) and almost 70% have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Additionally, patients with type 2 diabetes with alcohol use disorders have the highest proportion of liver-related morbidity of people with type 2 diabetes generally. Patients with type 2 diabetes receive an annual diabetes review as part of their routine clinical care, in which the health of many organs are considered. Yet, liver health is seldom included in this review. This Viewpoint argues that augmenting the existing risk stratification strategy with an additional liver health check provides the opportunity to detect advanced liver fibrosis, thereby opening a window for early interventions to prevent end-stage liver disease and its complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma.

Incident cardiac arrhythmias associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a nationwide histology cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest a link between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and incident arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, robust data are lacking from cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging MASLD severity.

METHODS

This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically-confirmed MASLD and without prior cardiac arrhythmias (1966-2016; n = 11,206). MASLD was defined from prospectively-recorded histopathology, and characterized as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (MASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis, or cirrhosis. MASLD patients were matched to ≤ 5 controls without MASLD or arrhythmias, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 51,856). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident arrhythmias (including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, incident arrhythmias were confirmed in 1351 MASLD patients (10.3/1000 person-years [PY]) and 6493 controls (8.7/1000PY; difference = 1.7/1000PY; aHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.22-1.38), and MASLD patients had significantly higher rates of incident AF (difference = 0.9/1000PY; aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.18-1.35). Rates of both overall arrhythmias and AF were significantly elevated across all MASLD histological groups, particularly cirrhosis (differences, 8.5/1000PY and 5.3/1000PY, respectively). In secondary analyses, MASLD patients also had significantly higher rates of incident ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest (aHR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.30-1.80), bradyarrhythmias (aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.06-1.48), and other supraventricular arrhythmias (aHR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.00-1.62), compared to controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to matched controls, patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD had modest but significantly higher incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest. Excess risk was observed across all stages of MASLD and was highest with cirrhosis.

Risk of Severe Infection in Patients With Biopsy-proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) might be at increased risk of severe infections, but large-scale data from cohorts with biopsy-proven NAFLD are lacking.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study including all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD (n = 12,133) from 1969 to 2017. NAFLD was defined as simple steatosis (n = 8232), nonfibrotic steatohepatitis (n = 1378), noncirrhotic fibrosis (n = 1845), and cirrhosis (n = 678). Patients were matched to ≤5 population comparators (n = 57,516) by age, sex, calendar year, and county. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident severe infections requiring hospital admission. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios in NAFLD and histopathological subgroups.

RESULTS

Over a median of 14.1 years, 4517 (37.2%) patients with NAFLD vs 15,075 (26.2%) comparators were hospitalized for severe infections. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of severe infections than comparators (32.3 vs. 17.0/1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-1.79). The most frequent infections were respiratory (13.8/1000 person-years) and urinary tract infections (11.4/1000 person-years). The absolute risk difference at 20 years after NAFLD diagnosis was 17.3%, equal to one extra severe infection in every 6 patients with NAFLD. Risk of infection increased with worsening histological severity of NAFLD (simple steatosis [aHR, 1.64], nonfibrotic steatohepatitis [aHR, 1.84], noncirrhotic fibrosis [aHR, 1.77], and cirrhosis [aHR, 2.32]. Also compared with their full siblings, patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of severe infections (aHR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were at significantly higher risk of incident severe infection requiring hospitalization both compared with the general population and compared with siblings. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and long-term outcomes: A nationwide paired liver biopsy cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

More data are needed regarding the long-term impact of the histological progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on long-term outcomes, including end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality.

METHODS

We included Swedish adults with biopsy-confirmed non-cirrhotic NAFLD and ≥2 liver biopsies >6 months apart (1969-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was categorized at initial biopsy as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), or non-cirrhotic fibrosis. NAFLD progression was defined by histological changes between biopsies (i.e. incident NASH, incident fibrosis, fibrosis progression, cirrhosis). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident ESLD (i.e. hospitalization for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation) and mortality, according to NAFLD progression vs. stable/regressed disease.

RESULTS

At initial biopsy, 497 patients (69.2%) had simple steatosis, 90 (12.5%) had non-fibrotic NASH, and 131 (18.2%) had non-cirrhotic fibrosis. Over a median of 3.4 years between biopsies, 30.4% (218/718) experienced NAFLD progression, including 12.5% (62/497) with incident non-fibrotic NASH, 24.0% (141/587) with incident fibrosis, and 5.6% (40/718) with cirrhosis. Compared to stable/regressed disease, NAFLD progression was associated with significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD (23.8 vs. 11.4/1,000 person-years [PY]; difference = 12.4/1,000 PY; aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.17-2.32). While the highest ESLD incidence occurred with progression to cirrhosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 56.3/1,000 PY), significant excess risk was also found with earlier transitions, including from simple steatosis to incident fibrosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 18.9/1,000 PY). In contrast, all-cause mortality rates did not appear to differ when NAFLD progression was compared to stable/regressed disease (difference = 4.7/1,000 PY; aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.24).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide, real-world cohort of patients with paired NAFLD biopsies, histological disease progression contributed to significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD, but did not appear to impact all-cause mortality.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Currently, data are scarce regarding the long-term impact of histological progression or regression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on subsequent risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including the development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. This is particularly important because randomized-controlled trials of NAFLD therapeutics currently focus on short-term histological endpoints as presumed surrogates for those major clinical outcomes. Thus, the results from this study can help inform the optimal design of future NAFLD therapeutic trials, while also providing the necessary evidence base for public health policies focused on preventing the development and progression of NAFLD.

Secondary Prevention of Esophageal Variceal Bleeding Is Often Imperfect: A National, Population-Based Cohort Study of 3592 Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Secondary prevention of esophageal variceal bleeding is important to improve prognosis, but uptake of guidelines is unknown in a real-world setting. Here, we determined the proportion of patients receiving appropriate nonselective beta-blocker treatment and repeat upper endoscopy after a first episode of esophageal variceal bleeding within a reasonable time frame.

METHODS

Population-based registers were used to identify all patients with a first episode of esophageal variceal bleeding in Sweden from 2006 to 2020. Crosslinkage between registers was performed to receive information on the cumulative incidence of patients with a dispensation of nonselective beta-blockers and repeat upper endoscopy within 120 days from baseline. Overall mortality was investigated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

In total, 3592 patients were identified, with a median age of 63 (interquartile range, 54-71) years. The cumulative incidence of a dispensation of nonselective beta-blockers and a repeat endoscopy within 120 days was 33%. A total of 77% received either of these treatments. Overall mortality was high, with 65% of patients dying after esophageal variceal bleeding during the full follow-up period (median 1.7 years). We observed an improved overall mortality during the later years of the study period (adjusted hazard ratio for the 2016-2020 period compared with the 2006-2010 period, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.89). Patients with receipt of nonselective beta-blockers and repeat upper endoscopy had better overall survival compared with those without (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Secondary prevention of esophageal variceal bleeding has not been widely undertaken, with many patients not receiving guideline-supported interventions within a reasonable time frame. This highlights a need to raise awareness on appropriate prevention strategies to clinicians and patients.

Familial coaggregation of MASLD with hepatocellular carcinoma and adverse liver outcomes: Nationwide multigenerational cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD) is the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. However, whether family members of individuals with MASLD also share an increased risk of developing HCC is unknown.

METHODS

This nationwide multigenerational cohort study involved family members of all Swedish adults diagnosed with biopsy-proven MASLD (1969-2017), and matched general population comparators. Using the Swedish Multi-generation Register, we identified 38,018 first-degree relatives (FDRs: parents, siblings, offspring) and 9,381 spouses of patients with MASLD, as well as 197,303 comparator FDRs and 47,572 comparator spouses. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for HCC, major adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease or liver transplantation), liver-related mortality, extrahepatic cancer, and non-liver-related mortality.

RESULTS

Over a median of 17.6 years, the rate of the primary outcome HCC was higher in MASLD FDRs vs. comparator FDRs (13 vs. 8/100,000 person-years [PY]; aHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.36-2.37). The HCC risk was further increased in FDRs of individuals with liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.07-4.27; PHeterogeneity = 0.03). MASLD FDRs also had higher rates of major adverse liver outcomes (73 vs. 51/100,000 PY; aHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.36-1.69) and liver-related mortality (20 vs. 11/100,000 PY; aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.67-2.74). MASLD FDRs with any concomitant chronic liver condition experienced accelerated progression of liver disease (aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.29-1.67). MASLD spouses were at higher risks of major adverse liver outcomes (86 vs. 74/100,000 PY; aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.51) and liver-related mortality (25 vs. 19/100,000 PY; aHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.15-3.23), but not of HCC (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 0.87-2.35).

CONCLUSIONS

There is distinct familial clustering of adverse liver-related outcomes in families of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD, with higher relative risks of HCC, progressive liver disease, and liver-related mortality, but absolute risks are low.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly termed NAFLD) clusters in families with high genetic susceptibility and shared environmental risk factors, but the risks of developing hepatocellular carcinoma and other major liver-related outcomes in family members of individuals with MASLD are largely unknown. This large nationwide multigenerational cohort study involving family members (first-degree relatives and spouses) of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD and of matched general population comparators found slightly increased risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in first-degree relatives, and of developing cirrhosis and liver-related mortality in all family members of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD. The findings of this study provide large-scale evidence to inform clinical practice guidelines for recommendations on the early identification of individuals at higher risk of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Risk of injuries before and after a diagnosis of cirrhosis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is often asymptomatic prior to decompensation. Still, cognitive impairment and sarcopenia may be present before decompensation, possibly increasing the risk of injuries. We estimated the risk of injuries during the period shortly before and after cirrhosis diagnosis.

METHODS

All patients (N=59,329) with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from 1997 to 2019 were identified from the Swedish National Patient Register. We used a self-controlled case series design to compare the incidence rates (IR) of injuries during a "diagnostic period" (within 3 months before or after the cirrhosis diagnosis date) to a self-controlled "prediagnostic period" (the same 6 calendar months 3 years before diagnosis), using conditional Poisson regression. Injuries were ascertained from the National Patient Register.

RESULTS

We identified 23,733 (40.0%) patients with compensated and 35,595 (60.0%) with decompensated cirrhosis. There were 975 injuries (IR 2.8/1000 person-months) during the prediagnostic period, and 3610 injuries (IR 11.6/1000 person-months) identified during the diagnostic period. The IR ratio was 8.1 (95% CI 7.5-8.7) comparing the diagnostic period with the prediagnostic period. For patients with compensated cirrhosis, the risk increment of injuries was highest just before the diagnosis of cirrhosis, whereas the risk increase was highest shortly after the diagnosis for those with decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of injuries increases shortly before and after the diagnosis of cirrhosis. These findings indicate that cirrhosis is frequently diagnosed in conjunction with an injury, and highlight the need for injury prevention after cirrhosis diagnosis, especially in patients with decompensation.

Four-fold increased mortality rate in patients with Wilson's disease: A population-based cohort study of 151 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Few studies have investigated mortality rates in patients with Wilson's disease and compared these to the general population. Here, we examined several clinical outcomes (including cardiovascular, psychiatric, neurologic conditions) in a population-based study of patients with Wilson's disease.

METHOD

We used nationwide registers to identify all patients with a first diagnosis of Wilson's disease between 2002 and 2020 in Sweden. Each patient was matched by age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Validated registers were used to investigate outcomes up to 19 years after baseline in patients and reference individuals.

RESULTS

We identified 151 patients with Wilson's disease matched with 1441 reference individuals. Median age at baseline was 26 years (IQR 17-42) and 50% were males. During a median follow-up of 6.6 years (IQR 2.9-12.9), 10 (6.6%) patients with Wilson's disease died compared with 31 (2.2%) reference individuals. This translated to a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.8 (95%CI = 1.8-8.1). Mortality was higher among Wilson's disease patients with baseline neuropsychiatric diagnoses (HR 7.9, 95%CI = 2.9-21.8). Cumulative mortality over 10 years was 9.3% (95%CI = 5.0-16.8) in Wilson's disease, compared to 2.4% (95%CI = 1.6-3.6) in reference individuals. We observed significantly elevated risks in the Wilson's disease group for incident cardiovascular disease, and incident psychiatric and neurological conditions when considering liver transplantation or death from other causes as competing events.

CONCLUSION

In this large population-based cohort study, patients with Wilson's disease had an almost four-fold increased mortality rate compared with matched individuals from the general population.

Time trends in mortality and life expectancy in 22,658 patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The management of alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved in the last decades, but whether the prognosis has changed over time is uncertain. We aimed to assess time trends in mortality and life expectancy in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used the Swedish national population and health registers to identify all patients with a first episode of in-hospital alcohol-associated cirrhosis from 1969 to 2019 (n = 22,658). Time trends in 1-year mortality were assessed with multivariable Cox regression. A flexible parametric model was fitted to evaluate loss in life expectancy.

RESULTS

Crude mortality was similar in the 2010s and 1980s (unadjusted HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93-1.08, ptrend = 0.767). However, when adjusting for baseline characteristics, mortality was lower in the 2010s than in the 1980s (adjusted HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.68-0.80), including both liver- and nonliver-related mortalities. These results were consistent in men but not in women, where only nonliver mortality had decreased. The average loss in life expectancy for patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis compared with the general population was similar throughout the study period (in the 2010s: 14.3 y shorter (95% CI = 13.7-14.9) in men and 15.8 years shorter (95% CI = 14.9-16.7) in women).

CONCLUSION

Mortality in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved somewhat when accounting for baseline characteristics, but the loss in life expectancy remains substantial. This underscores the need for new therapeutic options and health policy interventions to further improve the dismal prognosis and life expectancy of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

Antibiotic use and development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Antibiotics affect the gut microbiome. Preclinical studies suggest a role of gut dysbiosis in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but data from large cohorts with liver histology are lacking.

METHODS

In this nationwide case-control study, Swedish adults with histologically confirmed early-stage NAFLD (total n = 2584; simple steatosis n = 1435; steatohepatitis (NASH) n = 383; non-cirrhotic fibrosis n = 766) diagnosed January 2007-April 2017 were included and matched to ≤5 population controls (n = 12 646) for age, sex, calendar year and county of residence. Data for cumulative antibiotic dispensations and defined daily doses were accrued until 1 year before the matching date. Using conditional logistic regression, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. In a secondary analysis, NAFLD patients were compared with their full siblings (n = 2837).

RESULTS

Previous antibiotic use was seen in 1748 (68%) NAFLD patients versus 7001 (55%) controls, corresponding to 1.35-fold increased odds of NAFLD (95% CI = 1.21-1.51) in a dose-dependent manner (pfor trend  < .001). Estimates were comparable for all histologic stages (p > .05). The highest risk of NAFLD was observed after treatment with fluoroquinolones (aOR 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.59). Associations remained robust when patients were compared with their full siblings (aOR 1.29; 95% CI = 1.08-1.55). Antibiotic treatment was only linked to NAFLD in patients without metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.63; 95% CI = 1.35-1.91) but not in those with metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.09; 95% CI = 0.88-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic use may be a risk factor for incident NAFLD, especially in individuals without the metabolic syndrome. The risk was highest for fluoroquinolones and remained robust in sibling comparisons with whom individuals share genetic and early environmental susceptibilities.

Risk of infections in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous literature suggests an association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and infections. We aimed to determine the rate and risk of severe infections in NAFLD compared to the general population.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used national registers to identify all patients with a hospital-based diagnosis of NAFLD in Sweden 1987-2020 (n = 14 869). The patients were matched with ≤10 comparators from the general population for age, sex, municipality, and calendar year (n = 137 145). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for infections in patients with NAFLD compared to comparators. Cumulative incidences were calculated while accounting for competing risks (non-infection death and liver transplantation).

RESULTS

Severe infections leading to death or hospitalization occurred in 1990 (13.4%) patients with NAFLD and 9899 (7.2%) comparators during a median of 4.5 and 6.1 years of follow-up, respectively. The rate of severe infections per 1000 person-years was higher in patients with NAFLD (21.0) than comparators (9.1) independently of components related to the metabolic syndrome (adjusted HR 1.9, 95% CI = 1.8-2.0). Infection-related mortality was also higher in NAFLD compared to comparators (adjusted HR 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6-2.2). The 10-year cumulative incidence of severe infections was 16.6% (95% CI = 15.8-17.4) in NAFLD and 8.0% (95% CI = 7.8-8.2) in comparators.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD was associated with severe infections and infection-related mortality, independently of components associated with the metabolic syndrome. Increased clinical vigilance of severe infections in NAFLD may diminish the risk of premature death.

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community.

METHODS

Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy.

RESULTS

The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of 'agree' responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement ('agree' + 'somewhat agree'); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% 'agree'), 13 priorities had <80% 'agree', with greater reliance on 'somewhat agree' to achieve >90% combined agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community's efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat.

Changing epidemiology, global trends and implications for outcomes of NAFLD

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has rapidly become the most common liver disease globally and is currently estimated to affect 38% of the global population. Only a minority of patients with NAFLD will progress to cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, but from this vast population the total number of patients who are at risk of such severe outcomes is increasing. Worryingly, individuals are increasingly being affected by NAFLD at an earlier age, meaning there is more time for them to develop severe complications. With considerable changes in dietary composition and urbanisation, alongside the growth in obesity and type 2 diabetes in the global population, in particular in developing countries, the global proportion of persons affected by NAFLD is projected to increase further. Yet, there are large geographical discrepancies in the prevalence rates of NAFLD and its inflammatory component non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Such differences are partly related to differing socio-economic milieus, but also to genetic predisposition. In this narrative review, we discuss recent changes in the epidemiology of NAFLD and NASH from regional and global perspectives, as well as in special populations. We also discuss the potential consequences of these changes on hepatic and extrahepatic events.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic liver diseases in Sweden between 2005 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Updated data on the incidence, prevalence, and regional differences of chronic liver disease are missing from many countries. In this study, we aimed to describe time trends, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of a wide range of chronic liver diseases in Sweden.

METHODS

In this register-based, nationwide observational study, patients with a register-based diagnosis of chronic liver disease, during 2005-2019, were retrieved from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, and prevalence per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated and stratified on age, sex, and geographical region.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcohol-related cirrhosis increased by 47% (2.6% annually), reaching an incidence rate of 13.1/100,000 inhabitants. The incidence rate of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and unspecified liver cirrhosis increased by 217% and 87% (8.0 and 4.3% annually), respectively, reaching an incidence rate of 15.2 and 18.7/100,000 inhabitants, and a prevalence of 24.7 and 44.8/100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, incidence rates of chronic hepatitis C declined steeply, but liver malignancies have become more common. The most common causes of liver-related mortality were alcohol-related liver disease and unspecified liver disease.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rates of diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcohol-related cirrhosis, unspecified liver cirrhosis, and liver malignancies have increased during the last 15 years. Worryingly, mortality in several liver diseases increased, likely reflecting increasing incidences of cirrhosis in spite of a decreasing rate of hepatitis C. Significant disparities exist across sex and geographical regions, which need to be considered when allocating healthcare resources.

Risk of fractures and postfracture mortality in 3980 people with primary biliary cholangitis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Morbidity in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is multifactorial. Osteoporosis related to cholestasis is an extrahepatic complication of PBC. It is not fully established to what extent people with PBC have an increased risk for fractures, and if mortality after a fracture is increased, compared to the general population.

METHODS

All Swedish people with PBC diagnosed between 2001 and 2016 were identified from the National Swedish Patient Register using ICD-10 codes. Incident fractures were ascertained in the same register and compared to matched controls from the Swedish general population (1:10 for age, sex, and municipality). Cox regression was used to investigate the rates of fractures and postfracture mortality. The cumulative incidence of fractures was calculated while accounting for competing risks (death or liver transplantation).

RESULTS

People with PBC (n = 3980) showed a higher risk of fractures at all-time points during follow-up compared to matched controls (n = 37,196), which was seen both in men and women. At 5 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of any fracture in people with PBC was 16.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.6-18.1), compared to 11.6% (95%CI = 11.3-12.0) in controls. The rate of osteoporotic fractures was particularly high (adjusted Hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.9; 95% = CI 1.7-2.0). The 30-day as well as the 1-year mortality after a fracture was significantly higher in people with PBC compared to controls that also experienced a fracture (aHR = 2.2; 95%CI = 1.5-3.2; aHR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.7-2.4).

CONCLUSION

People with PBC have a significantly higher risk of fractures and postfracture mortality compared to matched controls from the general population.

Administrative coding for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is accurate in Swedish patients

Background and Aims: Epidemiological studies of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently use the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes to identify patients. The validity of such ICD codes in a Swedish setting is unknown. Here, we aimed to validate the administrative code for NAFLD in Sweden.Methods: In total, 150 patients with an ICD-10 code for NAFLD (K76.0) from the Karolinska University Hospital between 1 January 2015 and 3 November 2021 were randomly selected. Patients were classified as true or false positives for NAFLD by medical chart review and the positive predictive value (PPV) for the ICD-10 code corresponding to NAFLD was calculated.Results: The PPV of the ICD-10 code for NAFLD was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.89). After exclusion of patients with diagnostic coding for other liver diseases or alcohol abuse disorder (n = 14), the PPV was improved to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.96). The PPV was higher in patients with coding for NAFLD in combination with obesity (0.95, 95%CI = 0.87-1.00) or type 2 diabetes (0.96, 95%CI = 0.89-1.00). However, in false-positive cases, a high alcohol consumption was common and such patients had somewhat higher Fibrosis-4 scores than true-positive patients (1.9 vs 1.3, p = 0.16)Conclusions: The ICD-10 code for NAFLD had a high PPV, that was further improved after exclusion of patients with coding for other liver diseases than NAFLD. This approach should be preferred when performing register-based studies to identify patients with NAFLD in Sweden. Still, residual alcohol-related liver disease might risk confound some findings seen in epidemiological studies which needs to be considered.

Erratum: Adaptation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index for Register-Based Research in Sweden [Corrigendum]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2147/CLEP.S282475.].

Dysregulated peripheral proteome reveals NASH-specific signatures identifying patient subgroups with distinct liver biology

Background and aims

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease. The prognosis may vary from simple steatosis to more severe outcomes such as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The understanding of the biological processes leading to NASH is limited and non-invasive diagnostic tools are lacking.

Methods

The peripheral immunoproteome in biopsy-proven NAFL (n=35) and NASH patients (n=35) compared to matched, normal-weight healthy controls (n=15) was studied using a proximity extension assay, combined with spatial and single cell hepatic transcriptome analysis.

Results

We identified 13 inflammatory serum proteins that, independent of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, distinguished NASH from NAFL. Analysis of co-expression patterns and biological networks further revealed NASH-specific biological perturbations indicative of temporal dysregulation of IL-4/-13, -10, -18, and non-canonical NF-kβ signaling. Of the identified inflammatory serum proteins, IL-18 and EN-RAGE as well as ST1A1 mapped to hepatic macrophages and periportal hepatocytes, respectively, at the single cell level. The signature of inflammatory serum proteins further permitted identification of biologically distinct subgroups of NASH patients.

Conclusion

NASH patients have a distinct inflammatory serum protein signature, which can be mapped to the liver parenchyma, disease pathogenesis, and identifies subgroups of NASH patients with altered liver biology.

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: <-1·455 vs -1·455 to ≤0·676 vs >0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.

FINDINGS

Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.

INTERPRETATION

Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.

FUNDING

Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.

Increased risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD - a nationwide, population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered a multisystem disease, as it is bidirectionally linked to other cardiometabolic disorders, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the long-term risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD is unclear.

METHODS

Using the outpatient part of the nationwide Swedish Patient Register in the time period between 01/01/2002-12/31/2019, we identified all individuals with a first NAFLD diagnosis (N = 6,785) and matched these (age, sex, and municipality) with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (N = 61,136). Using population-based registers, we ascertained the development of microvascular diseases. The primary outcome was defined as a composite outcome of any diagnosis representative of microvascular disease (chronic kidney disease, retinopathy, or neuropathy). As secondary outcomes, we separately examined the risk of each specific microvascular outcome. Hazard ratios (aHR, adjusted for cirrhosis and time-varying T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia) for the outcomes were calculated by Cox proportional-hazards models.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 5.7 years. The incidence rate of microvascular diseases was >2-fold higher in patients with NAFLD (10.8 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.9-11.8]) versus reference individuals (4.7 per 1000 person-years [95%CI = 4.5-4.9]). NAFLD was independently and positively associated with the development of microvascular diseases compared to non-NAFLD subjects (aHR = 1.45 [95%CI = 1.28-1.63]). When stratifying the analysis by follow-up time, sex, or age categories, results remain virtually unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is positively and independently associated with the development of microvascular diseases. The risk for development of microvascular diseases should be taken into account in the personalized risk assessment of individuals with NAFLD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Consensus Statement on the definition and classification of metabolic hyperferritinaemia

Hyperferritinaemia is a common laboratory finding that is often associated with metabolic dysfunction and fatty liver. Metabolic hyperferritinaemia reflects alterations in iron metabolism that facilitate iron accumulation in the body and is associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic and liver diseases. Genetic variants that modulate iron homeostasis and tissue levels of iron are the main determinants of serum levels of ferritin in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, raising the hypothesis that iron accumulation might be implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance and the related organ damage. However, validated criteria for the non-invasive diagnosis of metabolic hyperferritinaemia and the staging of iron overload are still lacking, and there is no clear evidence of a benefit for iron depletion therapy. Here, we provide an overview of the literature on the relationship between hyperferritinaemia and iron accumulation in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, and on the associated clinical outcomes. We propose an updated definition and a provisional staging system for metabolic hyperferritinaemia, which has been agreed on by a multidisciplinary global panel of expert researchers. The goal is to foster studies into the epidemiology, genetics, pathophysiology, clinical relevance and treatment of metabolic hyperferritinaemia, for which we provide suggestions on the main unmet needs, optimal design and clinically relevant outcomes.