Epidemiology, clinical presentation, and outcome of mpox: A study of 381 cases in Saudi Arabia

Objectives

There are limited data on the clinical and epidemiological aspects of mpox in Saudi Arabia. This study investigates the characteristics of Mpox cases from May to September 2023.

Methods

A total of 381 cases of Mpox were included in this study, diagnosed based on a combination of clinical symptoms and laboratory testing.

Results

The majority of mpox cases were males (91.1%), with a mean age of (±SD) of 32.4 (±8.3) years; 356 (93.4%) did not report travel, 277 (72.7%) denied engaging in extra-marital sex, and 379 (99.5%) were not linked to secondary cases. Fever was reported in 371 (97.4%), whereas headache was present in 314 (82.4%). Cough (1.3%) and conjunctivitis (0.5%) were rare. The most commonly affected areas in terms of lesions were the palms and soles (297 cases, 78%), followed by the genitals (206 cases, 54%), face (198 cases, 52%), and mouth (160 cases, 42%). Of the 1325 identified contacts, 1134 (85.5%) were hospital contacts, and 191 (14.5%) were community contacts, and 393 (29.6%) were high-risk contact. Of the high-risk contacts, 284 (72.3%) accepted post-exposure vaccination. The genotyped samples were all subclade IIb (formerly the West Africa clade).

Conclusions

This study provides valuable insights into mpox characteristics in Saudi Arabia. The genome of monkeypox virus belonged to subclade IIb of the West Africa clade. Further analysis of the global tree sublineage is needed.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ChatGPT-3.5 System Usability Scale early assessment among Healthcare Workers: Horizons of adoption in medical practice

Artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, such as ChatGPT, have widely invaded all domains of human life. They have the potential to transform healthcare future. However, their effective implementation hinges on healthcare workers' (HCWs) adoption and perceptions. This study aimed to evaluate HCWs usability of ChatGPT three months post-launch in Saudi Arabia using the System Usability Scale (SUS). A total of 194 HCWs participated in the survey. Forty-seven percent were satisfied with their usage, 57 % expressed moderate to high trust in its ability to generate medical decisions. 58 % expected ChatGPT would improve patients' outcomes, even though 84 % were optimistic of its potential to improve the future of healthcare practice. They expressed possible concerns like recommending harmful medical decisions and medicolegal implications. The overall mean SUS score was 64.52, equivalent to 50 % percentile rank, indicating high marginal acceptability of the system. The strongest positive predictors of high SUS scores were participants' belief in AI chatbot's benefits in medical research, self-rated familiarity with ChatGPT and self-rated computer skills proficiency. Participants' learnability and ease of use score correlated positively but weakly. On the other hand, medical students and interns had significantly high learnability scores compared to others, while ease of use scores correlated very strongly with participants' perception of positive impact of ChatGPT on the future of healthcare practice. Our findings highlight the HCWs' perceived marginal acceptance of ChatGPT at the current stage and their optimism of its potential in supporting them in future practice, especially in the research domain, in addition to humble ambition of its potential to improve patients' outcomes particularly in regard of medical decisions. On the other end, it underscores the need for ongoing efforts to build trust and address ethical and legal concerns of AI implications in healthcare. The study contributes to the growing body of literature on AI chatbots in healthcare, especially addressing its future improvement strategies and provides insights for policymakers and healthcare providers about the potential benefits and challenges of implementing them in their practice.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Dynamic Patterns and Predominance of Respiratory Pathogens Post-COVID-19: Insights from a Two-Year Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) stand out as the most frequent causes leading to visits to the emergency department and hospitalizations. This study aims to assess the types and prevalence of respiratory infections across two years following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Patients presenting with an influenza-like illness (ILI) were tested using multiplex RT-PCR (QIAstat-Dx, Qiagen). The multiplexed RT- PCR test detects 21 respiratory viruses and bacteria.

RESULTS

During the study period, PCR test was done on a total of 1,790 samples were tested, and 712 (40%) were positive for a total of 796 pathogens. The mean age (± SD) of the participants was 20.1 ± 28.4 years in 2022 and 21.9 ± 27.6 years in 2023. Among the detected pathogens, the most prevalent were Rhinovirus/Enterovirus 222 (12.4%), followed by RSV A&B (103 cases, 5.7%), and H1N1 Influenza (77 cases, 4.3%). Additionally,  Influenza A/B constituted 172 (9.6%) while parainfluenza constituted (58, 3.2%). SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 3.97% of the samples. Over the two-year period, the monthly pattern of the identified pathogens exhibited fluctuations in the prevalence. Furthermore, variations were observed in the detected pathogens across different age groups.

CONCLUSION

In addition to adding significant knowledge to the field of respiratory viral infections, this study emphasizes the necessity of ongoing research and surveillance for the detection and characterization of respiratory viruses, particularly those with the potential for emergence. Such studies would also require setting up a strategy for genotyping and/or sequencing of viruses.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of COVID-19 and other factors on the usage status of the biologic drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis: A study from Vietnam

OBJECTIVES

To describe the status of using biological Disease Modifying Anti Rheumatic Drugs (bDMARDs) to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and related factors. In addition, the study determined the impact of COVID-19 on the usage of bDMARDs.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study and included 219 RA patients over 18 years old. The Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test (p<0.05) were used to estimate the retention time and compare between different times. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting the retention time of biological drugs (p<0.05).

RESULTS

Out of 1967 courses of treatment, there were 149 (7.6%) drug discontinuations, 760 (38.6%) doses extensions and 64 (3.3%) drug switch. Moderate disease level and choosing tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors initially were associated with retention time of COVID-19. Drug discontinuations and dose extensions increased after COVID-19 emergence. The retention time during COVID-19 was significantly different from that of pre-COVID-19. Gender, type of first-used bDMARD, conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) and corticoid usage status, disease activity levels were associated with retention time.

CONCLUSION

The presence of COVID-19 has a significant effect on usage status of the biologic drug. Further longitudinal studies are needed to clarify the relationship between COVID-19 and drug usage as well as related factors.

RNA therapeutics for diarrhea

Diarrhea is caused by a variety of bacterial and viral agents, inflammatory conditions, medications, and hereditary conditions. Secretory diarrhea involves several ion and solute transporters, activation of the cyclic nucleotide and Ca2+ signaling pathways, as well as intestinal epithelial secretion. In many cases of secretory diarrhea, activation of Cl- channels, such as the cystic transmembrane conduction regulator and the Ca2+stimulated Cl- channel fibrosis, promote secretion while concurrently inhibiting Na+ transport expressing fluid absorption. Current diarrhea therapies include rehydration and electrolyte replacement via oral rehydration solutions, as well as medications that target peristalsis or fluid secretion. The rising understanding of RNA function and its importance in illness has encouraged the use of various RNAs to operate selectively on "untreatable" proteins, transcripts, and genes. Some RNA-based medications have received clinical approval, while others are currently in research or preclinical studies. Despite major obstacles in the development of RNA-based therapies, many approaches have been investigated to improve intracellular RNA trafficking and metabolic stability.

Infectious causes of fever of unknown origin in developing countries: An international ID-IRI study

Background

Fever of unknown origin (FUO) in developing countries is an important dilemma and further research is needed to elucidate the infectious causes of FUO.

Methods

A multi-center study for infectious causes of FUO in lower middle-income countries (LMIC) and low-income countries (LIC) was conducted between January 1, 2018 and January 1, 2023. In total, 15 participating centers from seven different countries provided the data, which were collected through the Infectious Diseases-International Research Initiative platform. Only adult patients with confirmed infection as the cause of FUO were included in the study. The severity parameters were quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) ≥2, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, vasopressor use, and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).

Results

A total of 160 patients with infectious FUO were included in the study. Overall, 148 (92.5%) patients had community-acquired infections and 12 (7.5%) had hospital-acquired infections. The most common infectious syndromes were tuberculosis (TB) (n=27, 16.9%), infective endocarditis (n=25, 15.6%), malaria (n=21, 13.1%), brucellosis (n=15, 9.4%), and typhoid fever (n=9, 5.6%). Plasmodium falciparum, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Brucellae, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhi, and Rickettsiae were the leading infectious agents in this study. A total of 56 (35.0%) cases had invasive procedures for diagnosis. The mean qSOFA score was 0.76±0.94 {median (interquartile range [IQR]): 0 (0-1)}. ICU admission (n=26, 16.2%), vasopressor use (n=14, 8.8%), and IMV (n=10, 6.3%) were not rare. Overall, 38 (23.8%) patients had at least one of the severity parameters. The mortality rate was 15 (9.4%), and the mortality was attributable to the infection causing FUO in 12 (7.5%) patients.

Conclusions

In LMIC and LIC, tuberculosis and cardiac infections were the most severe and the leading infections causing FUO.

The impact of non-pharmacologic interventions on respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective study from Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) are frequently observed in infants and young children. The dynamics and transmission of ARTIs have been significantly impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the change in admission rates of Respiratory Syncytial virus (RSV) in a hospital in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

The study included hospitalized pediatric patients who underwent RSV testing in three periods: pre-pandemic (2019), during the pandemic (2020-2021), and the immediate post-pandemic (2022). RSV testing was conducted using either PCR or antigen tests.

RESULTS

Between January 2019 to December 2022, out of 927 tested patients, 173 (18.7%) were positive for RSV. The yearly positivity rates were as follows: 42 (35.6%) of 118, 24 (33.3%) of 72, 15 (18.5%) of 81, and 92 (14%) of 656, yearly from 2019 to 2022, respectively (P < 0.00001). Among all cases, 150 (16.2%) required hospitalization, including 94 (62.7%) males and 56 (37.3%) females. The admission rate to the intensive care unit (ICU) was 25 (16.7%), and mechanical ventilation was required for 10 (6.6%) patients. The overall case fatality rate was 0.7%. A Binary logistic regression analysis showed upper respiratory tract symptoms were more common in patients admitted in 2019 compared to 2022 (odd ratio:20.9, 95% CI: 4.2-104.1, P value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The study showed that there were differences in RSV infection before and after COVID-19. Understanding how COVID-19 mitigation measures affect RSV transmission can aid in the development of effective prevention and control strategies.

Post COVID-19 Symptoms Among Infected Vaccinated Individuals: A Cross-Sectional Study in Saudi Arabia

INTRODUCTION

Multiple studies investigated the endurance and occurrence of symptoms three months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study examines the possible effects of COVID-19 vaccination on the persistence of post-recovery symptoms.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Saudi Arabia to evaluate 14 prevalent long COVID-19 symptoms among vaccinated individuals. Patients self-reported their acute COVID-19 experience, demographic information, chronic conditions, vaccine history, and persistent symptoms.

RESULTS

Of the 484 patients, four respondents were excluded from the study as they had not received the vaccine, and 111 (23.1%) were vaccinated but did not get infected and were also excluded. The remaining 369 (76.9%) reported COVID-19 and a vaccination and thus they were included in the study. The occurrence of post-COVID-19 symptoms was reported in 59 (16.1%) for ≤ 3 months, 202 (54.8%) experienced persistent symptoms 3-6 months, and 108 (29.1%) reported symptoms lasting > 6 months. In relation to age group, persistent symptoms 3-6 months after recovery was more common in those > 50 years and symptoms lasting > 6 months were more common in 30-50 years of age (p < 0.001). Persistence of symptoms for  3-6 months was more common in those who were infected prior to vaccination compared to those who were infected after vaccination (P < 0.001). Of the included patients, 323 (87.5%) rated their health as good, 41 (11.1%) considered it fair, and 5 (1.4%) described their well-being as poor or terrible.

CONCLUSION

The study provides information of persistent symptoms in vaccinated individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 and highlights the need for targeted interventions to alleviate post-COVID-19 symptoms. The study is limited by its reliance on self-reported data and potential selection bias. Future research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying persistent symptoms in vaccinated individuals and to identify effective interventions for long COVID.

Myocarditis manifestations in dengue cases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a zoonotic viral infection that raises a global alarm in the tropics and subtropics, with the potentially escalating into newer geographical regions. Severe dengue may be associated with fatal complications such as myocarditis. There is a paucity of available data on the prevalence of dengue-associated myocarditis. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the global prevalence of dengue-associated myocarditis.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted utilizing the Cochrane library, PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, Web of Science, and Preprint servers such as arXiv, medRxiv, bioRxiv, BioRN, ChiRN, ChiRxiv, and SSRN as of November 25, 2022. All primary studies (case series, cross-sectional, retrospective, and prospective) that reported confirmed cases of dengue myocarditis were included. The I2 statistic test assessed the heterogenic characteristics and publication bias was evaluated using Doi plot and Egger regression tests.

RESULTS

A total of 12 studies conducted between 2007 and 2022 with 2795 laboratory-confirmed dengue patients were included. Of the included cases, 502 were positive for myocarditis, with a prevalence of 2.4-78%. The pooled prevalence of dengue-induced myocarditis in the studied population was 21.0% (95% CI, 9 - 38%). The prediction interval was estimated to be 0.00 - 0.81.

CONCLUSION

Myocarditis in dengue patients is a significant and understudied complication in many aspects. To prevent dengue-associated myocarditis, appropriate measures such as early detection of cases and signs, symptoms-based diagnosis via electrocardiography and echocardiography, as well as relevant vector control policies must be implemented.

Global trends of monkeypox-related articles: A bibliometric analysis over the last five decades (1964 - July 14, 2022)

BACKGROUND

The first human monkeypox (MPX) case was identified in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1970 with an outbreak in 2010 and the first human MPX case in the UK in 2022. In this study, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of the literature on monkeypox based on the Web of Science Core Collection (WOSCC) of the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) to identify relevant topics and trends in monkeypox research.

METHODS

We searched the Web of Science from 1964 until July 14, 2022, for all publications using the keywords "Monkeypox" and "Monkeypox virus." Results were compared using numerous bibliometric methodologies and stratified by journal, author, year, institution, and country-specific metrics.

RESULTS

Out of 1170 publications initially selected, 1163 entered our analysis, with 65.26 % (n = 759) being original research articles and 9.37 % (n = 109) being review articles. Most MPX publications were in 2010, with 6.02 % (n = 70), followed by 2009 and 2022 at 5.67 % (n = 66) each. The USA was the country with the highest number of publications, with n = 662 (56.92 %) of total publications, followed by Germany with n = 82 (7.05 %), the UK with n = 74 (6.36 %), and Congo with n = 65 (5.59 %). Journal of Virology published the highest number of MPX publications, followed by Virology Journal and Emerging Infectious Diseases with n = 52 (9.25 %), n = 43 (7.65 %), and n = 32 (5.69 %) publications, respectively. The top contributing institutions were the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, and the National Institutes of Health (NIH)National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

CONCLUSION

Our analysis provides an objective and robust overview of the current literature on MPX and its global trends; this information could serve as a reference guide for those aiming to conduct further MPX-related research and as a source for those seeking information about MPX.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is Not Circulating Among Hajj Pilgrims

Since the emergence of the middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) 2012, the virus had caused multiple healthcare-associated outbreaks. The initial 2012 Hajj season started few weeks after the first case of MERS-CoV, but there were no reported cases among pilgrims in 2012. Since then, there had been multiple studies examining the prevalence of MERS-CoV among Hajj pilgrims. Subsequently, multiple studies utilized screening of pilgrims for MERS-CoV and > 10,000 pilgrims were screened with no identifiable cases of MERS.

Viral aetiology of severe acute respiratory illness among patients admitted during the 2022 peri-Hajj period

Introduction

Severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) among pilgrims continues to be an important healthcare issue. The aim of this study was to describe the viral aetiology of patients admitted to hospitals in the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah during the 2022 peri-Hajj period.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of patients admitted to hospitals with SARI. Patients were tested with multiplex polymerase chain reaction for the most common viral aetiologies.

Results

In total, 179 cases of SARI were identified during the study period. Of these, 101 (56.4%) were males, 78 (43.6%) were females, and 78 (43.6%) were Saudi. The mean age was 58.60 years (standard deviation 20.5) years. The most common age group was ≥65 years (n=68, 36%), followed by 55-59 years (n=37, 19%). The most common comorbidities were diabetes mellitus (n=67, 36%), hypertension (n=65, 35%) and chronic lung disease (n=34, 18%). Eighty-five (47.5%) patients tested negative and 94 (42.5%) tested positive for various viral aetiologies. The most frequently detected viruses were severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n=28, 15%) and influenza (n=22, 12%); of the influenza cases, 16 were influenza A (6 (43%) were H3N2), and six were influenza B. The only case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was in a citizen, and none of the visitors or residents had MERS-CoV. Of the total cases, 27 (14%) died during the follow-up period. In a binary regression analysis, only age was associated with mortality (P=0.002).

Conclusion

The most commonly detected viruses among patients admitted to hospital with SARI were SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. It is important to continue surveillance of admitted and non-admitted patients in different Hajj periods to identify any shift in the aetiologic agents.

Multifaceted realities of scrub typhus: a case series from southern India

Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, a Gram-negative bacillus, commonly occurring in the Asia-Pacific region. It is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected Leptotrombidium mite and the bacterium causes endothelial dysfunction resulting in widespread vasculitis and the possible development of thrombocytopenia, meningitis, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and infrequently, myocarditis. Early diagnosis and prompt treatment are crucial in managing scrub typhus. Here, we present four cases of scrub typhus with a comprehensive literature review. This study highlights the significance of considering scrub typhus as a possible diagnosis in patients of all ages from endemic regions who exhibit symptoms such as fever, thrombocytopenia, or transaminitis, even in the absence of typical clinical features. Two cases exhibited the characteristic lesion of eschar at the site of mite feeding. One case involved a middle-aged woman who was diagnosed with typhus-induced myocarditis with left ventricular dysfunction. Another case involved a 23-day-old neonate with poor feeding and seizures, who was diagnosed with late-onset sepsis with meningitis. Scrub typhus was confirmed in all cases using a positive qualitative IgM ELISA. However, it is preferred to use paired (ELISA before and after antibiotic therapy) or quantitative titers for confirmation. Healthcare providers must consider the patient's exposure history and clinical presentation to diagnose and treat scrub typhus promptly.

ChatGPT and the Future of Digital Health: A Study on Healthcare Workers' Perceptions and Expectations

This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and intended practices of healthcare workers (HCWs) in Saudi Arabia towards ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence (AI) Chatbot, within the first three months after its launch. We also aimed to identify potential barriers to AI Chatbot adoption among healthcare professionals. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1057 HCWs in Saudi Arabia, distributed electronically via social media channels from 21 February to 6 March 2023. The survey evaluated HCWs' familiarity with ChatGPT-3.5, their satisfaction, intended future use, and perceived usefulness in healthcare practice. Of the respondents, 18.4% had used ChatGPT for healthcare purposes, while 84.1% of non-users expressed interest in utilizing AI Chatbots in the future. Most participants (75.1%) were comfortable with incorporating ChatGPT into their healthcare practice. HCWs perceived the Chatbot to be useful in various aspects of healthcare, such as medical decision-making (39.5%), patient and family support (44.7%), medical literature appraisal (48.5%), and medical research assistance (65.9%). A majority (76.7%) believed ChatGPT could positively impact the future of healthcare systems. Nevertheless, concerns about credibility and the source of information provided by AI Chatbots (46.9%) were identified as the main barriers. Although HCWs recognize ChatGPT as a valuable addition to digital health in the early stages of adoption, addressing concerns regarding accuracy, reliability, and medicolegal implications is crucial. Therefore, due to their unreliability, the current forms of ChatGPT and other Chatbots should not be used for diagnostic or treatment purposes without human expert oversight. Ensuring the trustworthiness and dependability of AI Chatbots is essential for successful implementation in healthcare settings. Future research should focus on evaluating the clinical outcomes of ChatGPT and benchmarking its performance against other AI Chatbots.

Self-reported long COVID-19 symptoms are rare among vaccinated healthcare workers

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected healthcare workers (HCWs). Here, we evaluate the occurence of long-COVID-19 symtoms among HCWs.

METHODS

This is a questionnaire-based study of HCWs who had COVID-19 in two medical centers in Saudi Arabia and were mostly vaccinated.

RESULTS

The study included 243 HCWs with a mean age (+ SD) of 36.1 (+ 7.6) years. Of them, 223 (91.8%) had three doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 12 (4.9%) had four doses, and 5 (2.1%) had two doses. The most common symptoms at the start of the illness were cough (180, 74.1%), shortness of breath (124, 51%), muscle ache (117, 48.1%), headache (113, 46.5%), sore throat (111, 45.7%), diarrhea (109, 44.9%) and loss of taste (108, 44.4%). Symptoms lasted for< one week in 117 (48.1%),> one week and< 1 month in 89 (36.6%),> 2 months and< 3 months in 9 (3.7%), and> 3 months in 15 (6.2%). The main symptoms present> 3 months were hair loss (8, 3.3%), cough (5, 2.1%), and diarrhea (5, 2.1%). A binomial regression analysis showed no relationship between persistence of symptoms for> 3 months and other demographic or clinical symptoms characteristics.

CONCLUSION

The study showed a low rate of the occurence of long-COVID> 3 months during the Omicron-wave among mostly vaccinated HCWs with no significant comorbidities. Furhter studies are needed to examine the effect of different vaccines on long-COVID-19 among HCWs.

Does ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2 heterologous prime-boost vaccination trigger higher rates of vaccine-related adverse events?

Background

There has been significant international interest in heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccination. However, it is linked with different intensity and frequency of adverse events. This study aimed to assess the safety of ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2 vaccines when given as heterologous prime-boost vaccination in Saudi Arabia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted during the period October 2021 to March 2022. The study included two groups of people based on the type of vaccination regimen. The first group (heterologous) was subjected to different prime-boost vaccination schedules irrespective of the prime and boost vaccine types. The second group included people vaccinated with the same type of COVID-19 vaccine (homologous).

Results

The overall sample included 334 participants. Those included in the heterologous group were at about 1.5 fold -increased risk for developing local and systemic adverse events compared to the homologous group. Fever, headache, and vomiting were significantly more frequent among the heterologous group compared to the homologous group (p-value<0.05). In both groups, more than half of the recorded adverse events were mild/moderate in severity.

Conclusion

Heterologous prime-post vaccination is associated with a slightly increased risk for the development of local and systemic adverse events compared to the homologous regimen. However, most of these adverse events are mild/moderate in nature and recede within two days with no serious adverse events documented.

Vaccine Derived Poliovirus (VDPV)

Poliomyelitis is caused by Poliovirus, a member of a large group of enteroviruses. Vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) stem from mutated live poliovirus, which is contained in the Oral Polio Virus vaccine (OPV). In addition, the emergence of VDPV is one of the global challenges for the eradication of poliomyelitis. VDPVs continue to affect different parts of the world; 1081 cases occurred in 2020 and 682 cases in 2021. There are several reasons that may have caused the increase in circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) after the "switch" from the trivalent to the bivalent oral polio vaccine. One reason is the low vaccination rate among the targeted population, which has been further aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Several strategies could control the spread of VDPV including the use of the monovalent OPV (mOPV-2). The risk of VDPV can be minimized through increased immunization rates and the use of safer vaccine alternatives. The global effort to eradicate polio has made significant progress over the years, but continued vigilance and investment in immunization programs are needed to achieve the ultimate goal of a polio-free world.

Longevity of Immunoglobulin-G Antibody Response Against Nucleocapsid Protein Against SARS-CoV-2 Among Healthcare Workers

Background

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the latest pandemic and the most significant challenge in public health worldwide. Studying the longevity of naturally developed antibodies is highly important clinically and epidemiologically. This paper assesses the longevity of antibodies developed against nucleocapsid protein amongst our health-care workers.

Methods

This longitudinal cohort study was conducted at a tertiary hospital, Saudi Arabia. Anti-SARSsCoV-2 antibodies were tested among health-care workers at three-point intervals (baseline, eight weeks, and 16 weeks).

Results

Of the 648 participants, 112 (17.2%) tested positive for Coronavirus (COVID-19) by PCR before the study. Of all participants, 87 (13.4%) tested positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, including 17 (2.6%) participants who never tested positive for COVID-19 using rt-PCR. Out of the 87 positive IgG participants at baseline, only 12 (13.7%) had remained positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies by the end of the study. The IgG titer showed a significant reduction in values over time, where the median time for the confirmed positive rt-PCR subgroup from infection to the last positive antibody test was 70 (95% CI: 33.4-106.5) days.

Conclusion

Health-care workers are at high risk of exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and contracting an asymptomatic infection is not unlikely. Developing and sustaining natural immunity differs from one person to another, while the rate of positive IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 wanes over time.

Clinicaltrialsgov Identifier

NCT04469647, July 14, 2020.

ChatGPT-4 and the Global Burden of Disease Study: Advancing Personalized Healthcare Through Artificial Intelligence in Clinical and Translational Medicine

The fusion of insights from the comprehensive global burden of disease (GBD) study and the advanced artificial intelligence of open artificial intelligence (AI) chat generative pre-trained transformer version 4 (ChatGPT-4) brings the potential to transform personalized healthcare planning. By integrating the data-driven findings of the GBD study with the powerful conversational capabilities of ChatGPT-4, healthcare professionals can devise customized healthcare plans that are adapted to patients' lifestyles and preferences. We propose that this innovative partnership can lead to the creation of a novel AI-assisted personalized disease burden (AI-PDB) assessment and planning tool. For the successful implementation of this unconventional technology, it is crucial to ensure continuous and accurate updates, expert supervision, and address potential biases and limitations. Healthcare professionals and stakeholders should have a balanced and dynamic approach, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaborations, data accuracy, transparency, ethical compliance, and ongoing training. By investing in the unique strengths of both ChatGPT-4, especially its newly introduced features such as live internet browsing or plugins, and the GBD study, we may enhance personalized healthcare planning. This innovative approach has the potential to improve patient outcomes and optimize resource utilization, as well as pave the way for the worldwide implementation of precision medicine, thereby revolutionizing the existing healthcare landscape. However, to fully harness these benefits at both the global and individual levels, further research and development are warranted. This will ensure that we effectively tap into the potential of this synergy, bringing societies closer to a future where personalized healthcare is the norm rather than the exception.

COVID-19: Factors Associated with the Psychological Distress, Fear and Resilient Coping Strategies among Community Members in Saudi Arabia

(1) Background: COVID-19 caused the worst international public health crisis, accompanied by major global economic downturns and mass-scale job losses, which impacted the psychosocial wellbeing of the worldwide population, including Saudi Arabia. Evidence of the high-risk groups impacted by the pandemic has been non-existent in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, this study examined factors associated with psychosocial distress, fear of COVID-19 and coping strategies among the general population in Saudi Arabia. (2) Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in healthcare and community settings in the Saudi Arabia using an anonymous online questionnaire. The Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K-10), Fear of COVID-19 Scale (FCV-19S) and Brief Resilient Coping Scale (BRCS) were used to assess psychological distress, fear and coping strategies, respectively. Multivariate logistic regressions were used, and an Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) was reported. (3) Results: Among 803 participants, 70% (n = 556) were females, and the median age was 27 years; 35% (n = 278) were frontline or essential service workers; and 24% (n = 195) reported comorbid conditions including mental health illness. Of the respondents, 175 (21.8%) and 207 (25.8%) reported high and very high psychological distress, respectively. Factors associated with moderate to high levels of psychological distress were: youth, females, non-Saudi nationals, those experiencing a change in employment or a negative financial impact, having comorbidities, and current smoking. A high level of fear was reported by 89 participants (11.1%), and this was associated with being ex-smokers (3.72, 1.14-12.14, 0.029) and changes in employment (3.42, 1.91-6.11, 0.000). A high resilience was reported by 115 participants (14.3%), and 333 participants (41.5%) had medium resilience. Financial impact and contact with known/suspected cases (1.63, 1.12-2.38, 0.011) were associated with low, medium, to high resilient coping. (4) Conclusions: People in Saudi Arabia were at a higher risk of psychosocial distress along with medium-high resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, warranting urgent attention from healthcare providers and policymakers to provide specific mental health support strategies for their current wellbeing and to avoid a post-pandemic mental health crisis.

Surveillance of device associated infections in intensive care units at a Saudi Arabian Hospital, 2017-2020

BACKGROUND

Device-associated infections (DAIs) are important components of healthcare associated infection and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study describes DAIs across different intensive care units (ICUs) in a hospital in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

The study was conducted between 2017 and 2020 and followed the definitions of National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) for DAIs. The calculated the rates of ventilator-associated events (VAE), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) and central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSI) followed NHSN definitions.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 82 DAIs in adult ICUs and of these 16 (19.5%) were CLABSI, 26 (31.7%) were CAUTI and 40 (48.7%) were VAE. The overall rates for adult ICUs were 1.6, 1.9, 3.8 per 1000 device-days for CAUTI, CLABSI and VAE, respectively. The device-utilization ratio was 0.5, 0.6, and 0.48 for urinary catheters, central lines, and ventilators, respectively. VAE rates for medical and surgical ICU were about 2.8 times the rate in the coronary care unit and the rates were high in 2020 corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the adult ICUS, medical ICU had a CLABSI rate of 2.13/1000 device-days and was about double the rate in surgical and cardiac ICU. For CAUTI, the rates per 1000 device-days were 2.19, 1.73, and 1.65 for medical, surgical, and coronary ICUs, respectively. The rate of CLABSI per 1000 device-days for pediatric and neonatal ICUs were 3.38 and 2.28, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CAUTI was the most common infections among adult ICUs and medical ICU had higher rates than other adult ICUs. VAE rate was higher in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating increased device-use, change in patients characteristics as well as possible change in practices across the ICUs.

Overview of Early ChatGPT's Presence in Medical Literature: Insights From a Hybrid Literature Review by ChatGPT and Human Experts

ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot, has rapidly gained prominence in various domains, including medical education and healthcare literature. This hybrid narrative review, conducted collaboratively by human authors and ChatGPT, aims to summarize and synthesize the current knowledge of ChatGPT in the indexed medical literature during its initial four months. A search strategy was employed in PubMed and EuropePMC databases, yielding 65 and 110 papers, respectively. These papers focused on ChatGPT's impact on medical education, scientific research, medical writing, ethical considerations, diagnostic decision-making, automation potential, and criticisms. The findings indicate a growing body of literature on ChatGPT's applications and implications in healthcare, highlighting the need for further research to assess its effectiveness and ethical concerns.

Exploring Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance, Uptake, and Hesitancy in the Pediatric Population: A Study of Parents and Caregivers in Saudi Arabia during the Initial Vaccination Phase

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, uptake, and hesitancy among parents and caregivers of children in Saudi Arabia during the initial rollout of pediatric COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

An electronic survey was used to collect data from participants who visited a COVID-19 vaccine center. The survey included demographic data, COVID-19 vaccine status among participants and their children, and reasons for vaccine acceptance or rejection. The Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (VHS) tool was also employed to assess vaccine hesitancy and attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine and routine childhood vaccination. Multivariate binary regression analysis was used to identify predictors of actual COVID-19 vaccine uptake among children.

RESULTS

Of the 873 respondents included in the analysis, 61.5% were parents and 38.5% were other caregivers. Of the participants, 96.9% had received the COVID-19 vaccine. Six hundred and ninety-four participants accepted the vaccine for their children, with the main reasons being an endorsement by the Saudi Ministry of Health (60%) and the importance of going back to school (55%). One hundred and seventy-nine participants would not vaccinate their children, with the most common reasons being fear of adverse effects (49%) and inadequate data about vaccine safety (48%). Factors such as age, COVID-19 vaccination status, self-rated family commitment level, attitudes toward routine children's vaccines, and participants' generalized anxiety disorder (GAD7) score did not significantly correlate with children's COVID-19 vaccination status. Parents were less likely to vaccinate their children compared to other caregivers, and participants with a higher socioeconomic status were more likely to vaccinate their children.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine acceptance and uptake were high during the initial pediatric COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Saudi Arabia. Still, the ongoing endorsement of the Ministry of Health and healthcare authorities should continue to advocate for better vaccine uptake in children.

Tocilizumab Outcomes in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Admitted to the ICU and the Role of Non-Tocilizumab COVID-19-Specific Medical Therapeutics

Background: Tocilizumab is a monoclonal antibody proposed to manage cytokine release syndrome (CRS) associated with severe COVID-19. Previously published reports have shown that tocilizumab may improve the clinical outcomes of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU. However, no precise data about the role of other medical therapeutics concurrently used for COVID-19 on this outcome have been published. Objectives: We aimed to compare the overall outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU who received tocilizumab with the outcome of matched patients who did not receive tocilizumab while controlling for other confounders, including medical therapeutics for critically ill patients admitted to ICUs. Methods: A prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study was conducted among critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of 14 hospitals in Saudi Arabia between 1 March 2020, and October 31, 2020. Propensity-score matching was utilized to compare patients who received tocilizumab to patients who did not. In addition, the log-rank test was used to compare the 28 day hospital survival of patients who received tocilizumab with those who did not. Then, a multivariate logistic regression analysis of the matched groups was performed to evaluate the impact of the remaining concurrent medical therapeutics that could not be excluded via matching 28 day hospital survival rates. The primary outcome measure was patients’ overall 28 day hospital survival, and the secondary outcomes were ICU length of stay and ICU survival to hospital discharge. Results: A total of 1470 unmatched patients were included, of whom 426 received tocilizumab. The total number of propensity-matched patients was 1278. Overall, 28 day hospital survival revealed a significant difference between the unmatched non-tocilizumab group (586; 56.1%) and the tocilizumab group (269; 63.1%) (p-value = 0.016), and this difference increased even more in the propensity-matched analysis between the non-tocilizumab group (466.7; 54.6%) and the tocilizumab group (269; 63.1%) (p-value = 0.005). The matching model successfully matched the two groups’ common medical therapeutics used to treat COVID-19. Two medical therapeutics remained significantly different, favoring the tocilizumab group. A multivariate logistic regression was performed for the 28 day hospital survival in the propensity-matched patients. It showed that neither steroids (OR: 1.07 (95% CI: 0.75–1.53)) (p = 0.697) nor favipiravir (OR: 1.08 (95% CI: 0.61–1.9)) (p = 0.799) remained as a predictor for an increase in 28 day survival. Conclusion: The tocilizumab treatment in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU improved the overall 28 day hospital survival, which might not be influenced by the concurrent use of other COVID-19 medical therapeutics, although further research is needed to confirm this.

Willingness and attitudes of parents towards COVID-19 vaccines for children in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

With an increasing need for COVID-19 vaccination around the globe, we aim to investigate willingness and attitudes of parents regarding COVID-19 vaccines for children in Vietnam.

METHOD

A 24-item online survey was conducted among 602 parents and legal guardians of children under 18 years of age.

RESULTS

There were 82.6% of parents willing to vaccinate their children. The principal reasons for willingness were: the need for vaccination to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when children return to school. The most common reason for refusing COVID-19 vaccine was the concern about vaccine side effects in children (73.3%), followed by perceived lack of scientific research on COVID-19 vaccines in children (31.4%). The main associated factors with increased willingness of parents towards childhood COVID-19 vaccine were: willingness to allow children to participate in a clinical vaccine trial (aOR = 3.58); possible increase in COVID-19-related mortality (aOR = 3.69); and positive media information regarding COVID-19 vaccine (aOR = 2.04). Noteworthy, higher educational status of parents was associated with decreased willingness for childhood COVID-19 vaccine (aOR = 0.26).

CONCLUSION

Understanding reasons of parents to accept childhood COVID-19 vaccines will help future plans in COVID-19 vaccination program. A larger sample size study at a national level is needed to verify the results.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 home monitoring in Saudi Arabia during the second and third waves

Introduction

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread around the world, patient care was shifted to outpatient care and home monitoring. This paper describes the characteristics and outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treated at home during the second and third waves in Saudi Arabia.

Materials and methods

Descriptive evaluation of the characteristics and outcome of COVID-19-positive cases enrolled in the home monitoring programme.

Results

This study included 14,970 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients (52.6% male). The mean age was 30.8 [standard deviation (SD) 19.9] years. Among the confirmed cases, 14,234 had documented vaccination status; of these, 3943 (27.7%) had not received any doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 1452 (10.2%) had received one dose, 4882 (34.3%) had received two doses, and 3957 (27.8%) had received three doses. The mean number of days in the home monitoring programme was 8.3 (SD 3.5) days. The mean interval from the last vaccine dose until SARS-CoV-2 infection was 116.6 (SD 75.5) days in 7975 patients. The presence of comorbidities was as follows: chronic kidney disease, 340 (2.3%); hypertension, 2569 (17.2%); chronic pulmonary disease, 2539 (17%); smoking, 1711 (11.4%) of 9269 with documented smoking histroy; coronary artery disease, 854 (5.7%); and diabetes mellitus, 1531 (10.3%). The hospitalization rate was 1.8%, and the case fatality rate was 5% of admitted patients, accounting for 0.11% of all cases. The mean age of patients who died was 76.6 (SD 17.7) years, which was higher compared with the mean age of those who survived [30.8 (SD 19.9) years] (P<0.001).

Conclusion

Utilization of a home monitoring programme was effective and safe for patients with COVID-19 who were either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.

Worldwide poliomyelitis outbreaks: should mass gathering organizers be concerned?

The polio is the longest PHEIC and the continued occurrence of outbreaks of cVDPV would put further risks globally. The binary nature of PHEIC declarations would not support the continued polio PHEIC due to the requirement of tiered or graded strategies to combat such diseases.

The use of antivirals in the treatment of human monkeypox outbreaks: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Human monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection is a recently declared public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization. Besides, there is scant literature available on the use of antivirals in MPXV infection. This systematic review compiles all evidence of various antivirals used on their efficacy and safety and summarizes their mechanisms of action.

METHODS

A review was done of all original studies mentioning individual patient data on the use of antivirals in patients with MPXV infection.

RESULTS

Of the total 487 non-duplicate studies, 18 studies with 71 individuals were included. Tecovirimat was used in 61 individuals, followed by cidofovir in seven and brincidofovir (BCV) in three individuals. Topical trifluridine was used in four ophthalmic cases in addition to tecovirimat. Of the total, 59 (83.1%) were reported to have complete resolution of symptoms; one was experiencing waxing and waning of symptoms, only one (1.8%) had died, and the others were having a resolution of symptoms. The death was thought unrelated to tecovirimat. Elevated hepatic panels were reported among all individuals treated with BCV (leading to treatment discontinuation) and five treated with tecovirimat.

CONCLUSION

Tecovirimat is the most used and has proven beneficial in several aggravating cases. No major safety concerns were detected upon its use. Topical trifluridine was used as an adjuvant treatment option along with tecovirimat. BCV and cidofovir were seldom used, with the latter often being used due to the unavailability of tecovirimat. BCV was associated with treatment discontinuation due to adverse events.