Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in an urban community of Bangladesh

Measuring COVID-19-related mortality is vital for making public health policy decisions. The magnitude of COVID-19-related mortality is largely unknown in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Bangladesh, due to inadequate COVID-19 testing capacity and a lack of robust civil registration and vital statistics systems. Even with the lack of data, cemetery-based death records in LMICs may provide insightful information on potential COVID-19-related mortality rates; nevertheless, there is a dearth of research employing cemetery-based death records. This study aimed to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in an urban setting in Bangladesh using a cemetery-based death registration dataset. A total of 6,271 deaths recorded between January 2015 and December 2021 were analysed using a Bayesian structural time series model. Exploratory analysis found that the average monthly number of deaths was 69 during the pre-COVID-19 period (January 2015-February 2020), but significantly increased to 92 during the COVID-19 period (March 2020-December 2021). The increase in male deaths was twice as large as the increase in female deaths. Model-based results were not statistically significant (relative effect 17%, 95% credible interval: -18%, 57%), but there was an overall increasing trend during the COVID-19 period, and specific months or shorter periods had a substantial increase. This first-of-its-kind study in Bangladesh has assessed the excess mortality in an urban community during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cemetery-based death registration appears to aid in tracking population mortality, especially in resource-limited countries where collecting data on the ground is challenging during crisis periods; however, additional large-scale research is required.

A nationwide study of COVID-19 impact on mental health-related presentations among children and adolescents to primary care practices in Australia

This study explored the impacts of COVID-19 on the mental health (MH)-related visits to general practices (GPs) among children and young people (CYP) up to 18 years of age in Australia. This study analysed national-level data captured by the NPS MedicineWise program on monthly CYP MH-related visits per 10,000 visits to GPs from January 2014 to September 2021. We considered the pre-COVID-19 period (January 2014-February 2020) and the COVID-19 period (March 2020-September 2021). We used a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on MH-related GP visits per 10,000 visits. A total of 103,813 out of 7,690,874 visits to GP (i.e., about 135 per 10,000 visits) were related to MH during study period. The BSTS model showed a significant increase in the overall MH-related visits during COVID-19 period (33%, 95% Credible Interval (Crl) 8.5%-56%), particularly, visits related to depressive disorders (61%, 95% Crl 29%-91%). The greatest increase was observed among females (39%, 95% Crl 12%-64%) and those living in socioeconomically least disadvantaged areas (36%, 95% Crl 1.2-71%). Our findings highlight the need for resources to be directed towards at-risk CYP to improve MH outcomes and reduce health system burden.

Quantification of Urbanization Using Night-Time Light Intensity in Relation to Women's Overnutrition in Bangladesh

Urbanization is accelerating in developing countries, which are simultaneously experiencing a rise in the prevalence of overnutrition (i.e., overweight and obesity), specifically among women. Since urbanization is a dynamic process, a continuous measure may better represent it when examining its association with overnutrition. However, most previous research has used a rural-urban dichotomy-based urbanization measure. This study utilized satellite-based night-time light intensity (NTLI) data to measure urbanization and evaluate its association with body weight in reproductive-aged (15-49) women in Bangladesh. Multilevel models estimated the association between residential area NTLI and women's body mass index (BMI) or overnutrition status using data from the latest Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS 2017-18). Higher area-level NTLI was associated with a higher BMI and increased odds of being overweight and obese in women. Living in areas with moderate NTL intensities was not linked with women's BMI measures, whereas living in areas with high NTL intensities was associated with a higher BMI or higher odds of being overweight and obese. The predictive nature of NTLI suggests that it could be used to study the relationship between urbanization and overnutrition prevalence in Bangladesh, though more longitudinal research is needed. This research emphasizes the necessity for preventive efforts to offset the expected public health implications of urbanization.

COVID-19 and Pediatric Mental Health Hospitalizations

OBJECTIVES

To analyze Australian national data to examine the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mental health-related hospital presentations among children and adolescents during the pandemic period with restrictions, and the period after the restrictions eased.

METHODS

We analyzed the monthly mental health-related inpatient admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances data from 6 large pediatric hospitals across Australia, using the Bayesian structural time series models. The COVID-19 restriction period was from March 2020 to December 2021 and the COVID-19 restriction-eased period from January to June 2022.

RESULTS

A total of 130 801 mental health-related hospital admissions (54 907) and ED attendances (75 894) were analyzed. During the COVID-19 restriction period, there was a significant increase in inpatient admissions related to deliberate self-harm behaviors (82%, 95% credible interval [CrI], 7%-160%) and ED attendances related to overall mental health disorders (15%, 95% CrI, 1.1%-30%) and eating disorders (76%, 95% CrI, 36%-115%). The increase was higher among females and those living in the least socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, suggesting a widening gap between mental health-related presentations by sex and socioeconomic status. After the restrictions eased, there were slight declines in mental health-related hospital presentations; however, the numbers remained higher than the pre-COVID-19 levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in mental health-related hospital presentations during the COVID-19 period calls for additional support for pediatric mental health care, particularly for eating disorders and deliberate self-harm among female adolescents. It is important to monitor pediatric mental health service use as we enter "COVID-19 normal" period.

Pregnancy, spousal connectedness, and young married women's mental health: an analysis of the Bangladesh adolescent health and wellbeing survey

Mental health disorders are responsible for 125.3 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost globally, with depression in adolescents rising faster than in adults. In total, more than 90% of the 1.2 billion adolescents in the world live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite the rise in teenage marriage and pregnancy in LMICs, there is a paucity of research on the role of pregnancy as a risk factor for adolescent mental health, and the role of spousal connectedness as a potential protective factor. This study aims to address this gap. A total of 2408 currently married adolescent (aged 15-19 years) women from the Bangladesh Adolescent Health and Wellbeing Survey 2019-2020 were analysed. Multivariable models were used to assess the factors associated with depression symptoms and major depressive disorder (MDD). The prevalence of moderate/severe depressive symptoms or MDD among adolescents was 14.6%, well ahead of south Asian levels. The odds of having moderate/severe depressive symptoms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-2.76) or MDD (AOR=1.63, 95%CI 1.18-2.25) were higher in pregnant adolescent women than in non-pregnant adolescent women. A closer relationship with one's husband reduced the risk of developing moderate/severe depressive symptoms (AOR=0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.96) or MDD (AOR=0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97). Pregnancy and connectedness had no statistically significant interaction effect on depression. There is an urgent need for affordable and scalable interventions to reduce the risk of mental health morbidity in pregnant adolescent women especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Residential district multi-hazard risk is associated with childhood undernutrition: evidence from Bangladesh

Child undernutrition and natural disasters are major public health concerns in Bangladesh, but research into their relationship is lacking. This study assessed the association between residential district multi-hazard-risk and undernutrition among children aged less than 5 years (under-5) in Bangladesh. Data for 22,055 under-5 children were extracted from the 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey of Bangladesh. Multi-hazard risk was categorized as low (score<10), moderate (score 10-20), and high (score>20) using a combined score of four major hazards: tornado, cyclone, earthquake, and flood. We found that children from high multi-hazard risk districts were 19% more likely to be stunted and 23% more likely to be underweight compared to low-risk districts. However, wasting was not associated with multi-hazard risk. Strategies such as agricultural adaptation and coping mechanisms, long-term post-disaster nutritional response, extended periods of relief supports, and enhanced quality maternal and child care services may help to reduce undernutrition burdens in Bangladesh.

A multilevel assessment of the influence of education on women's uptake of institutional delivery services during childbirth in Bangladesh

OBJECTIVES

Despite a significant decline over time, maternal mortality remains high in Bangladesh. Institutional delivery during childbirth is crucial to reducing maternal mortality, but uptake of institutional delivery services (IDS) remains suboptimal in Bangladesh. Though women's education plays a crucial role in the use of IDS, the educational status of the household head and area-level literacy rate also appear to act as predictors of IDS uptake. This study aims to assess the effect of the educational status of women and household heads as well as district-level adult literacy rates on the use of IDS during childbirth among women in Bangladesh.

DESIGN

This study analyzed nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from the 2019 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey.

SETTING

Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

9,207 currently married women aged 15-49 years who had at least one live birth in the two years preceding the survey were included in the study. The outcome measure was women's use of IDS during their last childbirth. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to explore the association between education status of women and household heads, and district (i.e., area unit) adult literacy rates and uptake of IDS among women in Bangladesh by controlling for other sociodemographic covariates and clustering.

RESULTS

About 53% of women used IDS during childbirth. Adjusting for other factors and clustering, women with higher educational status, those living in households with higher-educated heads, and those in districts with greater adult literacy rates are more likely to use IDS, after controlling for key sociodemographic variables including wealth.

CONCLUSIONS

Uptake of IDS in Bangladesh remains low, with education playing an important independent role in determining rates. The findings of the study provide empirical evidence for policymakers to design multi-modal educational programs targeted not only at literate women but also at household head (especially male) and communities where literacy (and equally importantly health literacy) may be variable or absent.

Household drinking water E. coli contamination and its associated risk with childhood diarrhea in Bangladesh

Faecal contamination (by Escherichia coli [E. coli]) of household drinking water can have adverse effects on child health, particularly increasing the episodes of childhood diarrhea; however, the evidence is scanty in Bangladesh. This study utilised data from the most recent nationally representative 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to investigate the relationship between E. coli concentration in household drinking water and diarrheal episodes among children aged under-5 years in Bangladesh. Childhood diarrhea was identified by asking the children's mothers or caregivers if they had a diarrheal episode in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. E. coli colonies were counted as colony-forming units (CFUs) per 100 ml of water and classified into three risk groups (low: < 1 CFU/100 ml; moderate: 1-10 CFU/100 ml; and high: > 10 CFU/100 ml). The design-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate the association between drinking water E. coli risk groups and childhood diarrhea, adjusting for potential confounders. We observed a significant association between household drinking water E. coli contamination and diarrheal episodes among under-5 children. Compared to the children from households with a low risk of E. coli contamination in drinking water, children from households with a moderate risk of E. coli contamination were 1.68 times more likely to have diarrhea, which was 2.28 times among children from households with a high risk of E. coli contamination. Findings of the study have significant policy implications and urge to ensure safe water supplies, improve water management practices and modify hygiene behaviours to reduce episodes of childhood diarrhea.

Residential area greenness and hypertension: a national assessment on urban adults in Bangladesh

This study investigated the associations between greenness and blood pressure (BP) metrics (systolic BP [SBP], diastolic BP [DBP], hypertension) among urban adults in Bangladesh and the potential mediation effects of body mass index (BMI) using 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data for 2360 urban adults (aged ≥35 years). The Enhanced Vegetation Index was used as a measure of residential area greenness. Associations between greenness and BP metrics were estimated using linear and binary logistic regression models. We also conducted mediation analyses. Greater area-level greenness was inversely associated with SBP (β -1.33, 95%CI: -2.46, -.20), DBP (β -.83, 95%CI: -1.64, -.02), and hypertension (adjusted odds ratio .87, 95%CI: .77, .98). BMI substantially mediated associations between greenness and BP metrics. Adopting urban greening policies could reduce the risk of hypertension, thus can contribute to reduction of non-communicable disease burden in Bangladesh. Longitudinal studies are required to further investigate the causal pathways.

Community-level environmental characteristics predictive of childhood stunting in Bangladesh - a study based on the repeated cross-sectional surveys

Coastal morphology makes Bangladesh vulnerable to environmental hazards and climate change. Therefore, environmental characteristics may shape population health, including child health. The prevalence of stunting among under-five aged (U5) children is high in Bangladesh. However, there is a lack of research on environmental predictors of stunting. This study aimed to assess the association between community-level environmental characteristics and stunting using pooled data from the three latest Bangladesh demographic and health surveys (BDHS). According to the multilevel model, rainfall, distance to protected areas, and vegetation index showed a nonlinear association with stunting. The temperature was inversely, and distance to water bodies was positively related to stunting. Overall, results evidence the environmental characteristics are predictive of stunting, and these characteristics should be taken into account during intervention design to minimise the negative effects of environmental change on child health. Further research is also necessary to comprehend the causal pathways between environmental characteristics and stunting in Bangladesh.

Household cooking fuels associated with elevated blood pressure among adult women: a national-wide assessment in Bangladesh

Household air pollution from cooking fuel may have adverse health effects, particularly among women from countries like Bangladesh, where women participate in most household cooking activities. However, little is known about how cooking fuel influences adult women's blood pressure (BP) status in Bangladesh. This study assessed the association between household cooking fuel and women's BP in Bangladesh. Data of 6543 women (aged ≥18 years) from the latest nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and health survey 2017-18 were used in this study. This survey collected data on various variables, including women's BP and cooking fuel. Multivariable regression models were used for this evaluation. About 82.3% of women were living in households using solid cooking fuel. Women's average systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were 121.5 mmHg and 80.7 mmHg, respectively, and 25% had elevated BP. Women residing in a household using solid fuel had significantly higher SBP (β 3.76 mmHg, 95 confidence interval (CI) 2.00, 5.51) and DBP (β 1.17 mmHg, 95% CI 0.17, 2.18) relative to women from households using clean fuel. The odds of elevated BP was 58% higher (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58, 95% CI 1.19, 2.11) among women residing in households using solid fuels compared to their counterparts. Usage of solid cooking fuel was predominantly high and negatively impacted women's BP status in Bangladesh. In addition to other lifestyle change interventions, improved cooking facilities and clean cooking fuel provision and monitoring could be important initiatives to reduce the burden of elevated BP among women.

Assessing the double burden of malnutrition among Bangladeshi reproductive-aged women: A comparison between unconditional and conditional quantile regression

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The coexistence of undernutrition and overnutrition creates a double burden of malnutrition (DBM) among women in Bangladesh. This study aimed to assess heterogeneous effects of sociodemographic factors on women's nutritional status using quantile regression (QR) models and to investigate the differences between the results of unconditional QR (UQR) and conditional QR (CQR) models.

METHODS

A sample of 17 285 nonpregnant women aged 15 to 49 years was extracted from the latest Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2017-2018. Women's nutritional status was determined using body mass index (BMI). The UQR and CQR were used to estimate the heterogeneous effects of sociodemographic factors on women's BMI.

RESULTS

Results show that the estimated effects of sociodemographic factors varied across the BMI distribution. For the same quantile, the effects differed between UQR and CQR. For instance, education was significantly positively associated with BMI. In UQR, secondary educated women achieved an increase of 0.996 and 1.720 in BMI at 10th and 90th quantiles, respectively, compared to noneducated women, whereas conditional effects were 1.336 and 1.492 at 10th and 90th quantiles, respectively, in CQR. These results also indicate secondary education appeared to have a lesser (or higher) impact in the lower (or upper) tail of BMI distribution, and unconditional and conditional effects for the same quantile varied notably. Other factors such as women's age, occupation, household wealth, number of children ever born and household size, religion, and place of residence were significantly associated with BMI and showed heterogeneous effects.

CONCLUSION

Overall, there is a need to focus on heterogeneous effects of factors on women's nutritional status. Patterns of unconditional heterogeneous effects would be more informative than conditional heterogeneous effects while studying factors' effects. These findings may aid in developing strategies targeting high-risk groups to combat the double burden of malnutrition.

Associations between breast cancer screening participation and residential area sociodemographic features, geographic accessibility, and features of screening venue location in Greater Sydney, Australia

Breast cancer screening (BCS) participation rates are often suboptimal and vary geographically. Environmental features may influence BCS participation, but few studies have assessed this relationship. This study assessed the associations between BCS participation, residential area sociodemographic characteristics, distance to BCS venue, and venue location attributes. Data for 384,433 women residing in Greater Sydney, Australia, invited to BCS during 2011-2014 were spatially joined to their state suburb (SSC) (n = 800). SSC sociodemographic measures included women's median age, proportion women speaking English at home, full-time employed, and university educated; and proportion dwellings with motor-vehicles. Road network distance was calculated to each BCS venue. BCS venues were coded as co-located with bus-stop, train-station, hospital, general practitioner (GP), and shop. Hot spots were calculated to quantify spatial clustering of BCS participation. Multilevel logistic models were used to estimate the associations between environmental predictors and BCS participation, accounting for SSC-level clustering. BCS participation was 53.9% and spatially clustered. BCS was positively associated with SSC-level median age for women, proportions women speaking English and university educated, and dwellings with motor-vehicles. Distance to venue was inversely associated with BCS. Venue co-location with GP was positively associated and co-location with bus-stop, train-station, and shop, hospital were negatively associated with BCS. Residential sociodemographic features, geographic access, and venue location attributes are associated with BCS participation. These findings implicate the relevance of social and built environmental factors to programmatic aims to raise BCS participation. Additional research on venue location features is required to understand where best to site BCS venues.

Machine Learning Approaches to Identify Patient Comorbidities and Symptoms That Increased Risk of Mortality in COVID-19

Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus, is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected may have pre-existing conditions that may interact with COVID-19 to increase symptom severity and mortality risk. COVID-19 patient comorbidities are likely to be informative regarding the individual risk of severe illness and mortality. Determining the degree to which comorbidities are associated with severe symptoms and mortality would thus greatly assist in COVID-19 care planning and provision. To assess this we performed a meta-analysis of published global literature, and machine learning predictive analysis using an aggregated COVID-19 global dataset. Our meta-analysis suggested that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease (CEVD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension as most significantly associated with COVID-19 severity in the current published literature. Machine learning classification using novel aggregated cohort data similarly found COPD, CVD, CKD, type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension, as well as asthma, as the most significant features for classifying those deceased versus those who survived COVID-19. While age and gender were the most significant predictors of mortality, in terms of symptom-comorbidity combinations, it was observed that Pneumonia-Hypertension, Pneumonia-Diabetes, and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)-Hypertension showed the most significant associations with COVID-19 mortality. These results highlight the patient cohorts most likely to be at risk of COVID-19-related severe morbidity and mortality, which have implications for prioritization of hospital resources.

Role of hypertension in the association of overweight and obesity with diabetes among adults in Bangladesh: a population-based, cross-sectional nationally representative survey

AIMS

Overweight and obesity (OWOB) is a modifiable risk factor for both hypertension and diabetes. However, the association between OWOB and diabetes among Bangladeshi adults and how hypertension may mediate this relationship are not well explored. This study aimed to examine (1) whether OWOB is independently associated with diabetes among Bangladeshi adults, (2) whether this association is mediated by hypertension, and (3) the effect modification by wealth status and place of residence in the relationships.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data of 9305 adults aged ≥18 years from the most recent nationally representative cross-sectional study of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018. Design-based logistic regression was used to assess the association between OWOB and diabetes, and counterfactual framework-based weighting approach was used to evaluate the mediation effect of hypertension in the OWOB-diabetes relationship. We used stratified analyses for the effect modifications.

RESULTS

The prevalence of OWOB, diabetes and hypertension was 48.5%, 11.7% and 30.3%, respectively. We observed a significant association between OWOB and diabetes and a mediating role of hypertension in the OWOB-diabetes association. The odds of diabetes was 51% higher among adults with OWOB than those without OWOB (adjusted OR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.77). We observed that 18.64% (95% CI 9.84% to 34.07%) of the total effect of OWOB on the higher odds of diabetes was mediated through hypertension, and the mediation effect was higher among adults from non-poor households and from both rural and urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Adult OWOB status is independently associated with diabetes in Bangladesh, and hypertension mediates this association. Therefore, prevention policies should target adults with both OWOB and hypertension, particularly those from non-poor households and from both rural and urban areas, to reduce the growing burden of diabetes and its associated risk.

Residential area and screening venue location features associated with spatial variation in breast cancer screening invitation response rates: an observational study in Greater Sydney, Australia

OBJECTIVES

Participation in breast cancer screening (BCS) varies at the small-area level, which may reflect environmental influences. This study assessed small-area variation in BCS invitation response rates (IRRs) and associations between small-area BCS IRR, sociodemographic factors, BCS venue distance and venue location features in Greater Sydney, Australia.

METHODS

BCS IRR data for 2011-2012 were compiled for 9528 Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1) units (n=227 474 women). A geographial information system was used to extract SA1-level sociodemographic features (proportions of women speaking English at home, full-time employed and university educated, and proportion of dwellings with motor vehicles), SA1-level distance to closest venue(s) (expressed as quartiles), and closest venue(s) colocated with bus stops, train station, hospital, general practitioner and shops. Associations between area-level features, BCS venue distance, venue location features and IRR were estimated using ordinary least square-type spatial lag models including area education as a covariate.

RESULTS

BCS IRR varied across SA1s (mean=59.8%, range: 0%-100%), with notable spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I=0.803). BCS IRR was positively associated with greater SA1-level proportion of women speaking English at home (β=2.283, 95% CI 2.024 to 2.543), women's education (in the model including speaking English at home β=0.454, 95% CI 0.211 to 0.697), dwellings with motor vehicles (β=1.836, 95% CI 1.594 to 2.078), greater distance to venue (eg, most distant quartile compared with closest: β=6.249, 95% CI 5.489 to 7.008), and BCS venue colocated with shops (β=0.762, 95% CI 0.273 to 1.251). Greater SA1-level women employment (β=-0.613, 95% CI -0.898 to -0.328) and venue colocated with train station (β=-1.889, 95% CI -2.376 to -1.402) or hospital (β=-0.677, 95% CI -1.164 to -0.189) were inversely related to BCS IRR.

CONCLUSIONS

Small-area variation in BCS IRR exists for Greater Sydney and is strongly related to sociodemographic factors that, together with BCS venue location features, could inform targeted attempts to improve IRR.

Model and variable selection using machine learning methods with applications to childhood stunting in Bangladesh

Childhood stunting is a serious public health concern in Bangladesh. Earlier research used conventional statistical methods to identify the risk factors of stunting, and very little is known about the applications and usefulness of machine learning (ML) methods that can identify the risk factors of various health conditions based on complex data. This research evaluates the performance of ML methods in predicting stunting among under-5 aged children using 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data. Besides, this paper identifies variables which are important to predict stunting in Bangladesh. Among the selected ML methods, gradient boosting provides the smallest misclassification error in predicting stunting, followed by random forests, support vector machines, classification tree and logistic regression with forward-stepwise selection. The top 10 important variables (in order of importance) that better predict childhood stunting in Bangladesh are child age, wealth index, maternal education, preceding birth interval, paternal education, division, household size, maternal age at first birth, maternal nutritional status, and parental age. Our study shows that ML can support the building of prediction models and emphasizes on the demographic, socioeconomic, nutritional and environmental factors to understand stunting in Bangladesh.

Healthcare Capacity, Health Expenditure, and Civil Society as Predictors of COVID-19 Case Fatalities: A Global Analysis

Background: The rapid growth in cases of COVID-19 has challenged national healthcare capacity, testing systems at an advanced ICU, and public health infrastructure level. This global study evaluates the association between multi-factorial healthcare capacity and case fatality of COVID-19 patients by adjusting for demographic, health expenditure, population density, and prior burden of non-communicable disease. It also explores the impact of government relationships with civil society as a predictor of infection and mortality rates. Methods: Data were extracted from the Johns Hopkins University database, World Bank records and the National Civic Space Ratings 2020 database. This study used data from 86 countries which had at least 1,000 confirmed cases on 30th April 2020. Negative binomial regression model was used to assess the association between case fatality (a ratio of total number of confirmed deaths to total number of confirmed cases) and healthcare capacity index adjusting for other covariates. Findings: Regression analysis shows that greater healthcare capacity was related to lesser case-fatality [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.5811; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4727-0.7184; p < 0.001] with every additional unit increase in the healthcare capacity index associated with a 42% decrease in the case fatality. Health expenditure and civil society variables did not reach statistical significance but were positively associated with case fatalities. Interpretation: Based on preliminary data, this research suggests that building effective multidimensional healthcare capacity is the most promising means to mitigate future case fatalities. The data also suggests that government's ability to implement public health measures to a degree determines mortality outcomes.

Influence of parental education on child mortality in Bangladesh: repeated cross-sectional surveys

Reducing the mortality of children under-5 (U5) is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). Although Bangladesh has made progress in reducing child mortality, there remain inequalities among different sociodemographic groups. Education is one particular key factor with a multidimensional impact on child health and survival. This study assessed the association between parental education and U5 mortality using repeated cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data. The risk of child death was substantially low among educated parents. Children of secondary or higher educated mother and father were about 30% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.697, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.596 to 0.815, p< .001) and 26% (HR = 0.738, 95% CI 0.635 to 0.858, p < .001), respectively, less likely to die early. Children from wealthier households and born to mothers with long birth spacings were less likely to face an early death. The study findings emphasize on imparting education to parents as an intervention strategy to continue the reduction of child mortality rate in Bangladesh, which could be a policy direction toward achieving the SDGs.

Spatial risk distribution and determinants of E. coli contamination in household drinking water: a case study of Bangladesh

The Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination in the household (HH) drinking water is often a public health concern. Very few studies explore the associated factors and spatial risk modeling together for E. coli contamination in Bangladesh, this research gap motivates to explore this fact further by utilizing Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2012-13 data. A Bayesian spatial ordered logit model was used to examine the associated factors and spatial risks of the E. coli contamination. The results show that 62% of HH water samples were contaminated with E. coli. After controlling for different factors, a high level of E. coli contamination was observed among HHs who had access to non-improved water sources. Moreover, no significant rural-urban difference was observed. The spatial prediction of the high-risk contamination was prominent in districts like Dhaka and Bandarban. The study findings can provide insights into the planning of policy activities in Bangladesh.

Association between Household Livestock Ownership and Childhood Stunting in Bangladesh - A Spatial Analysis

Livestock is an integrated part of agriculture, yet the relationship between household livestock ownership and child nutrition is a significant knowledge gap. The present study aimed to assess the association between household livestock ownership and childhood stunting and to explore the geospatial variations at district level in Bangladesh. A complete data of 19 295 children aged below 5 years were extracted from the latest Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2012-13. The tropical livestock unit (TLU) score calculated as a weighted value for each livestock and categorized as low, medium, and high using tertile. A hierarchical Bayesian spatial logistic model was used to assess the association between TLU and childhood stunting. Children from the household with high TLU were 10% less likely to be stunted (adjusted posterior odds ratio: 0.90, 95% credible interval: 0.84-0.97) after controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, morbidity, place of residence and spatial effects. There was also a substantial spatial variation in childhood stunting across districts in Bangladesh with the highest burden in the Northern and North-Eastern regions. The positive effect of household livestock ownership on reducing child stunting suggests that, in addition to nutritional intervention in Bangladesh, efforts to strengthen livestock production would be beneficial for improving child nutrition status. However, a small effect size may be owing to the lack of dietary diversity, livestock health and productivity data as well as the complexity of the relationship, requiring further study. Furthermore, a significant regional disparity in stunting highlighted the importance of spatial targeting during the design of interventions and implementation.

Targeting at risk households in Bangladesh exposed to arsenic contamination: a spatial analysis

This study seeks to identify the spatial risk pattern of households (HHs) exposed to arsenic contamination in Bangladesh by adjusting potential socio-economic, demographic factors. Data from Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2012-13 are used where hierarchical Bayesian spatial ordered logit model is implemented. The analysis shows that 25% of HH water samples were arsenic contaminated, although the majority (95%) of HHs used improved water sources. Arsenic contamination risk in the HH water was significantly associated with water source type and location, place of residence and districts. The model-based spatial prediction reveals that the north-east and south-west parts of Bangladesh have a high risk of contamination. To ensure the quality of HH water, our findings suggest that chemical test should be promoted considering the spatial risk of arsenic contaminations variations among HHs of Bangladesh. Furthermore, the study findings can effectively contribute in the planning of future interventions and programs.

Molecular characterization and expression profile of interferon-stimulated gene 15 (ISG15) in the endometrium of goat (Capra hircus)

Interferon-stimulated gene 15 (ISG15), a ubiquitin-like protein, is responsible for uterine receptivity, implantation and conceptus development in different ruminant species, but in goat (Capra hircus) its role is yet to be explicated. In the present study, the ISG15 gene was cloned, characterized and its temporal expression profile was examined in the endometrium of caprine (cp). A fragment of cpISG15 gene, 1033 bp in length, was amplified, cloned and sequenced from genomic DNA covering the coding region. Sequence analysis of cpISG15 gene revealed that it was comprised of two exons of 59 bp and 496 bp encoding a peptide of 157 amino acids. Complementary DNA (cDNA) and deduced amino acid sequences of cpISG15 exhibited 99 and 98, 93 and 88, 94 and 89, 76 and 66, and 73 and 62% identity with that of sheep, cattle, buffalo, human and mice, respectively. Further, relative expression of cpISG15 mRNA and protein was determined by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and Western blot, respectively, in the endometrium of pregnant and cyclic does. Both cpISG15 mRNA and protein were expressed maximally (P < 0.05) in the endometrium during early stage of pregnancy (16-24 d) as compared to cyclic does, but no significant difference was observed in cpISG15 mRNA and protein expression in the endometrium between the later stage of pregnancy (25-40 d) and cyclic does. It is concluded that cpISG15 is almost similar in structure and probably in function also to other species as it has been found significantly upregulated during early pregnancy.

Analysis of low birth weight and its co-variants in Bangladesh based on a sub-sample from nationally representative survey

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight (LBW) remains a leading global cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. This study leverages a large national survey to determine current prevalence and socioeconomic, demographic and heath related factors associated with LBW in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2012-13 of Bangladesh were analyzed. A total of 2319 women for whom contemporaneous birth weight data was available and who had a live birth in the two years preceding the survey were sampled for this study. However, this analysis only was able to take advantage of 29% of the total sample with 71% missing birth weight for newborns. The indicator, LBW (< 2500 g) of infants, was examined as the outcome variable in association with different socioeconomic, demographic and health-related covariates. Mixed-effects logistic regression was performed to identify possible factors related to LBW.

RESULTS

In the selected sub-sample, about 20% of infants were born with LBW, with lowest rates observed in Rajshahi (11%) and highest rates in Rangpur (28%). Education of mothers (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.68 for secondary or higher educated mother) and poor antenatal care (ANC) (AOR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04-1.90) were associated with LBW after adjusting for mother's age, parity and cluster effects. Mothers from wealthier families were less likely to give birth to an LBW infant. Further indicators that wealth continues to play a role in LBW were that place of delivery, ANC and delivery assistance by quality health workers were significantly associated with LBW. However there has been a notable fall in LBW prevalence in Bangladesh since the last comparable survey (prevalence 36%), and an evidence of possible elimination of rural/urban disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

Low birth weight remains associated with key indicators not just of maternal poverty (notably adequate maternal education) but also markers of structural poverty in health care (notably quality ANC). Results based on this sub-sample indicate LBW is still a public health concern in Bangladesh and an integrated effort from all stakeholders should be continued and interventions based on the study findings should be devised to further reduce the risk of LBW.

Short-term feed and light deprivation reduces voluntary activity but improves swimming performance in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss

Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (~ 180 g, 16 °C and < 5 kg m^-3) that were feed deprived and kept in total darkness showed a significant increase in critical swimming speed (U _crit) between 1 and 12 days of deprivation (from 3.35 to 4.46 body length (BL) s^-1) with no increase in maximum metabolic rate (MMR). They also showed a significant decrease in the estimated metabolic rate at 0 BL s^-1 over 12 days which leads to a higher factorial aerobic metabolic scope at day 12 (9.38) compared to day 1 (6.54). Routine metabolic rates were also measured in ~ 90 g rainbow trout that were swimming freely in large circular respirometers at 16 °C. These showed decreasing consumption oxygen rates and reductions in the amount of oxygen consumed above standard metabolic rate (a proxy for spontaneous activity) over 12 days, though this happened significantly faster when they were kept in total darkness when compared to a 12:12-h light-dark (LD) photoperiod. Weight loss during this period was also significantly reduced in total darkness (3.33% compared to 4.98% total body weight over 12 days). Immunological assays did not reveal any consistent up- or downregulation of antipathogenic and antioxidant enzymes in the serum or skin mucus of rainbow trout between 1 and 12 days of feed and light deprivation. Overall, short periods of deprivation do not appear to significantly affect the performance of rainbow trout which appear to employ a behavioural energy-sparing strategy, albeit more so in darkness than under a 12:12-h LD regime.

A comprehensive analysis of trends and determinants of HIV/AIDS knowledge among the Bangladeshi women based on Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, 2007-2014

Background

South-Asian countries are considered to be a potential breeding ground for HIV epidemic. Although the prevalence of this incurable disease is low in Bangladesh, women still have been identified as more vulnerable group. The aim of this study is to assess the knowledge about HIV/AIDS: its trends and associated factors among the women in Bangladesh.

Methods

We analysed the nationally representative repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) data: 2007, 2011, and 2014. These data were clustered in nature due to the sampling design and the generalized mixed effects model is appropriate to examine the association between the outcome and the explanatory variables by adjusting for the cluster effect.

Results

Overall, women’s knowledge about HIV/AIDS has been decreasing over the years. Education plays the leading role and secondary-higher educated women are 6.6 times more likely to have HIV/AIDS knowledge. The likelihood of knowledge is higher among the women who had media exposure (OR: 1.6) and knowledge on family planning (OR: 2.3). A rural-urban gap is noticed in women’s knowledge about HIV/AIDS and significant improvement has been observed among the rural and media exposed women. Results reveal that age, region, religion, socio-economic status, education, contraceptive use have significant (p<0.01) effects on women’s knowledge about HIV/AIDS.

Conclusion

This study recommends to emphasis more on women’s education, media exposure, and family planning knowledge in strengthening women’s knowledge about HIV/AIDS. In addition, residence specific programs regarding HIV/AIDS awareness also need to be prioritized.

A comprehensive analysis on child mortality and its determinants in Bangladesh using frailty models

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh has experienced a significant reduction of child mortality over the past decades which helped achieve the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target. But the mortality among under-5 aged children is still relatively high and it needs a substantial effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target and decelerate the current rate of under-5 mortality. At this stage, it is hence important to explore the trend and determinants of under-5 mortality in order to reduce the vulnerability of child's survival. The aim of this study is to explore the trends and identify the factors associated with mortality in children aged less than 5 years in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Data from three repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the year 2007, 2011 and 2014 were used. A stratified two-stage sampling method was used to collect information on child and maternal health in these surveys. Cox's proportional hazards models with community and mother level random effects (or frailty models) were fitted to identify the associated factors with under-five mortality.

RESULTS

Our study reveals that urban-rural disparity in child mortality has decreased over the time. The frailty models revealed that the combined effect of birth order and preceding birth interval length, sex of the child, maternal age at birth, mother's working status, parental education were the important determinants associated with risk of child mortality. The risk of mortality also varied across divisions with Sylhet division being the most vulnerable one. Moreover, significant and sizable frailty effects were found which indicates that the estimations of the unmeasured and unobserved mother and community level factors on the risk of death were substantively important.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that community-based educational programs and public health interventions focused on birth spacing may turn out to be the most effective. Moreover, unobserved community and familial effects need to be considered along with significant programmable determinants while planning for the child survival program.

Factors Influencing the Prevalence of Stunting Among Children Aged Below Five Years in Bangladesh

Background:

Poor nutrition during childhood impedes physical and mental development of children, which propagate the vicious cycle of intergenerational under nutrition. This paper is aimed at understanding the determinants of stunting among children aged 0 to 59 months in Bangladesh.

Methods:

The study used Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 data and a multistage stratified cluster-sampling design. Anthropometric data (for height and weight) were collected and analysis was limited to 7647 children. Multiple binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association of stunting with potential socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Results:

The prevalence of stunting has been found to be about 41% among children aged less than 60 months and higher in rural setting than in urban areas (43% vs 36%). Adjusted model revealed that several factors were influencing stunting. The children living in moderately food-insecure households had higher odds of becoming stunted (odds ratio [OR] = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.54, P = .01) compared to the children living in food-secure households. The derived ORs of stunting for children delivered at institutions facilitated particularly by public (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67-0.96; P = .02) or private (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97; P = .02) sectors were less than for children delivered at home. Similarly, wealth index, exposure of mother to the mass media, age of child, size of child at birth, and parents’ education were significantly associated with stunting.

Conclusions:

Moreover, the demographic characteristics and other indicators appeared to have significant influence in the prevalence of stunting. Public health programs are needed to avert the risk factors of stunting among children in Bangladesh.

Impact of teachers training on HIV/AIDS education program among secondary school students in Bangladesh: A cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

In 2007, the Government of Bangladesh incorporated a chapter on HIV/AIDS into the national curriculum for an HIV-prevention program for school students. For the efficient dissemination of knowledge, an intervention was designed to train the teachers and equip them to educate on the topic of HIV/AIDS. The present study intended to understand the impact of this intervention by assessing the knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to HIV/AIDS, among the targeted students.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted with the students at randomly selected schools from two adjacent districts. Considering exposure to intervention, one district was assigned for intervention and the other as a control. In total, 1,381 students, aged 13-18 years (or above) were interviewed, 675 from the control areas and 706 from the intervention areas. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed on the collected data.

RESULTS

A significantly higher proportion (p<0.001) of students in the intervention areas attended HIV/AIDS classes, demonstrated better knowledge and fewer misconceptions regarding the transmission and prevention of HIV. The same was derived regarding their attitude towards people living with HIV, as a higher proportion (p<0.001) responded positively, compared to the control groups of the study. Additionally, multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that students in intervention area were more likely to have good knowledge on HIV transmission (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.74-4.22) and prevention (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.41-3.26) compared to the students in the control areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The training programme needs to be scaled up, since it is likely to have an impact among students; we have witnessed that the interventions particularly helped increase HIV/AIDS knowledge among students and positively change the students' attitudes towards HIV/AIDS.

Determinants of anemia among 6-59 months aged children in Bangladesh: evidence from nationally representative data

BACKGROUND

Anemia is a global public health problem but the burden of anemia is disproportionately borne among children in developing countries. Anemia in early stages of life has serious consequences on the growth and development of the children. We examine the prevalence of anemia, possible association between anemia and different socio-economic, demographic, health and other factors among children with ages from 6 to 59 months from the nationally representative 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS).

METHODS

Data on hemoglobin (Hb) concentration among the children aged 6-59 months from the most recent BDHS (2011) were used. This nationally representative survey allowed a multistage stratified cluster sampling design and provided data on a wide range of indicators such as fertility, mortality, women and child health, nutrition and other background characteristics. Anemia status was determined using hemoglobin level (<11.0 g/dl), and weighted prevalence of childhood anemia along with 95 % confidence intervals were provided. We also examined the distribution of weighted anemia prevalence across different groups and performed logistic regression to assess the association of anemia with different factors.

RESULTS

A total of 2171 children aged 6-59 months were identified for this analysis, with weighted prevalence of anemia being 51.9 % overall- 47.4 % in urban and 53.1 % in rural regions. Results of a multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that, children below 24 months of age (odds ratio, [OR] 3.01; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 2.38-3.81), and those from an anemic mother (OR 1.80; 95 % CI 1.49-2.18) were at higher risk of anemia. Childhood anemia was significantly associated with chronic malnutrition of child, source of drinking water, household wealth and geographical location (defined by division).

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of anemia among 6-59 months aged children was observed in Bangladesh. Given the negative impact of anemia on the development of children in future, there is an urgent need for effective and efficient remedial public health interventions.

Hormone profile of crossbred goats during the periparturient period

The plasma hormone profile of progesterone, 17 beta-oestradiol, prolactin, growth hormone (GH), cortisol, triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4) and insulin were estimated by radioimmunoassay in jugular blood samples from 10 Alpine x Beetal crossbred goats during the periparturient period. The plasma progesterone concentrations declined from day 20 prior to kidding to the day of kidding and then remained at a basal level. 17 beta-Oestradiol concentrations declined from day 20 to day 4 prepartum, followed by a continuous increase to reach a peak at kidding. Plasma oestradiol declined abruptly on day 1 postpartum and remained low throughout the postpartum period. The plasma prolactin concentrations increased continuously from day 20 to day 10 prepartum but then increased to a peak on the day of kidding, followed by a transient decline by day 5 postpartum. The plasma GH concentrations varied significantly (p < 0.01) on the different days of sampling but were highest on the day of kidding. The plasma cortisol concentration declined from day 20 to day 2 prepartum, after which it abruptly increased on day 1 prepartum to reach a peak on the day of kidding. The concentrations of plasma T3 remained similar during the prepartum period but were minimal on the day of kidding and increased during the postpartum period. The concentration of plasma T4 was also lowest on the day of kidding and increased during the postpartum period. Plasma insulin concentrations were low in the day of kidding.

Changes in blood glucose, plasma non-esterified fatty acids and insulin in pregnant and non-pregnant goats

The blood glucose and the plasma non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and insulin concentrations were estimated in jugular blood samples from 18 Alpine x Beetal and Sannen x Beetal goats during pregnancy and compared with samples from non-pregnant goats and from goats during the periparturient period. The blood glucose levels in the pregnant goats rose to a peak of about 60 +/- 1.36 mg/ml at 42-56 days and then declined to about 46 +/- 2.37 mg/ml at 112-126 days. In non-pregnant goats, the blood glucose levels were significantly (p < 0.01) higher than in pregnant goats, except between days 42 and 70 (59 +/- 1.36 mg/ml). On the day of kidding, the levels declined significantly (p < 0.01), increasing again thereafter. The plasma NEFA concentrations were significantly higher in pregnant than in non-pregnant goats from days 56 to 126. The NEFA concentration increased on the day of kidding, followed by a transient fall by day 3. The plasma insulin concentration was usually higher in pregnant than in non-pregnant goats, except between days 56 and 70 and from day 126 onwards. The insulin concentration fell late in pregnancy, but there was a transient increase 2 days after parturition. The blood glucose and plasma NEFA concentrations can be used as indices of nutritional status during pregnancy in goats.

DNA amplification assay for rapid detection of bovine tubercle bacilli in semen

Tubercle bacilli shed in the semen can be a potential hazard for unlimited number of cows through artificial insemination. We have evaluated the efficacy of a DNA amplification technique by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of tubercle bacilli in fresh and frozen semen using spiked samples. The test was based on insertion sequence IS 1081 and could detect as low as 10-100 bacterial cells per ml of spiked semen. The specificity of the test was 100%. The method was applied to semen samples from known and suspected tuberculous bulls. Each of 20 semen samples (fresh and frozen diluted) from one of the three breeding bulls included in the study was found positive while the remaining 40 samples from the other two bulls failed to generate any detectable signal. PCR products were confirmed with Southern blot hybridization to an alpha 32P labeled-PCR product of the target sequence from the IS 1081 element of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex.