Potential impact of a new sepsis prediction model for the primary care setting: early health economic evaluation using an observational cohort

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the potential referral rate and cost impact at different cut-off points of a recently developed sepsis prediction model for general practitioners (GPs).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study with decision tree modelling.

SETTING

Four out-of-hours GP services in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

357 acutely ill adult patients assessed during home visits.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome is the cost per patient from a healthcare perspective in four scenarios based on different cut-off points for referral of the sepsis prediction model. Second, the number of hospital referrals for the different scenarios is estimated. The potential impact of referral of patients with sepsis on mortality and hospital admission was estimated by an expert panel. Using these study data, a decision tree with a time horizon of 1 month was built to estimate the referral rate and cost impact in case the model would be implemented.

RESULTS

Referral rates at a low cut-off (score 2 or 3 on a scale from 0 to 6) of the prediction model were higher than observed for patients with sepsis (99% and 91%, respectively, compared with 88% observed). However, referral was also substantially higher for patients who did not need hospital assessment. As a consequence, cost-savings due to referral of patients with sepsis were offset by increased costs due to unnecessary referral for all cut-offs of the prediction model.

CONCLUSIONS

Guidance for referral of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the primary care setting using any cut-off point of the sepsis prediction model is not likely to save costs. The model should only be incorporated in sepsis guidelines for GPs if improvement of care can be demonstrated in an implementation study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Dutch Trial Register (NTR 7026).

Safe shortening of antibiotic treatment duration for complicated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAFE trial): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial comparing 4 and 6 weeks of antibiotic treatment

INTRODUCTION

A major knowledge gap in the treatment of complicated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) is the optimal duration of antibiotic therapy. Safe shortening of antibiotic therapy has the potential to reduce adverse drug events, length of hospital stay and costs. The objective of the SAFE trial is to evaluate whether 4 weeks of antibiotic therapy is non-inferior to 6 weeks in patients with complicated SAB.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The SAFE-trial is a multicentre, non-inferiority, open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial evaluating 4 versus 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy for complicated SAB. The study is performed in 15 university hospitals and general hospitals in the Netherlands. Eligible patients are adults with methicillin-susceptible SAB with evidence of deep-seated or metastatic infection and/or predictors of complicated SAB. Only patients with a satisfactory clinical response to initial antibiotic treatment are included. Patients with infected prosthetic material or an undrained abscess of 5 cm or more at day 14 of adequate antibiotic treatment are excluded. Primary outcome is success of therapy after 180 days, a combined endpoint of survival without evidence of microbiologically confirmed disease relapse. Assuming a primary endpoint occurrence of 90% in the 6 weeks group, a non-inferiority margin of 7.5% is used. Enrolment of 396 patients in total is required to demonstrate non-inferiority of shorter antibiotic therapy with a power of 80%. Currently, 152 patients are enrolled in the study.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This is the first randomised controlled trial evaluating duration of antibiotic therapy for complicated SAB. Non-inferiority of 4 weeks of treatment would allow shortening of treatment duration in selected patients with complicated SAB. This study is approved by the Medical Ethics Committee VUmc (Amsterdam, the Netherlands) and registered under NL8347 (the Netherlands Trial Register). Results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL8347 (the Netherlands Trial Register).

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine for prevention of COVID-19 and other respiratory tract infections in older adults with comorbidities: a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To test whether Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination would reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and other respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in older adults with one or more comorbidities.

METHODS

Community-dwelling adults aged 60 years or older with one or more underlying comorbidities and no contraindications to BCG vaccination were randomized 1:1 to BCG or placebo vaccination and followed for 6 months. The primary endpoint was a self-reported, test-confirmed COVID-19 incidence. Secondary endpoints included COVID-19 hospital admissions and clinically relevant RTIs (i.e. RTIs including but not limited to COVID-19 requiring medical intervention). COVID-19 and clinically relevant RTI episodes were adjudicated. Incidences were compared using Fine-Gray regression, accounting for competing events.

RESULTS

A total of 6112 participants with a median age of 69 years (interquartile range, 65-74) and median of 2 (interquartile range, 1-3) comorbidities were randomized to BCG (n = 3058) or placebo (n = 3054) vaccination. COVID-19 infections were reported by 129 BCG recipients compared to 115 placebo recipients [hazard ratio (HR), 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87-1.44]. COVID-19-related hospitalization occurred in 18 BCG and 21 placebo recipients (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.46-1.61). During the study period, 13 BCG recipients died compared with 18 placebo recipients (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.35-1.43), of which 11 deaths (35%) were COVID-19-related: six in the placebo group and five in the BCG group. Clinically relevant RTI was reported by 66 BCG and 72 placebo recipients (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.66-1.28).

DISCUSSION

BCG vaccination does not protect older adults with comorbidities against COVID-19, COVID-19 hospitalization, or clinically relevant RTIs.

A machine learning approach using endpoint adjudication committee labels for the identification of sepsis predictors at the emergency department

Accurate sepsis diagnosis is paramount for treatment decisions, especially at the emergency department (ED). To improve diagnosis, clinical decision support (CDS) tools are being developed with machine learning (ML) algorithms, using a wide range of variable groups. ML models can find patterns in Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that are unseen by the human eye. A prerequisite for a good model is the use of high-quality labels. Sepsis gold-standard labels are hard to define due to a lack of reliable diagnostic tools for sepsis at the ED. Therefore, standard clinical tools, such as clinical prediction scores (e.g. modified early warning score and quick sequential organ failure assessment), and claims-based methods (e.g. ICD-10) are used to generate suboptimal labels. As a consequence, models trained with these "silver" labels result in ill-trained models. In this study, we trained ML models for sepsis diagnosis at the ED with labels of 375 ED visits assigned by an endpoint adjudication committee (EAC) that consisted of 18 independent experts. Our objective was to evaluate which routinely measured variables show diagnostic value for sepsis. We performed univariate testing and trained multiple ML models with 95 routinely measured variables of three variable groups; demographic and vital, laboratory and advanced haematological variables. Apart from known diagnostic variables, we identified added diagnostic value for less conventional variables such as eosinophil count and platelet distribution width. In this explorative study, we show that the use of an EAC together with ML can identify new targets for future sepsis diagnosis research.

[Antibiotic-induced acute kidney injury]

Acute kidney injury is very common in hospitalized patients and has been described in up to twenty percent of admissions. Although there are many causes of acute kidney injury, one of the more overlooked causes is the antibiotic prescribed during these admissions. In this article we discuss the two main causes of antibiotic induced kidney injury illustrated by two cases, one of ciprofloxacin Kristal nephropathy and of ciprofloxacin tubule-interstial nephritis. We discuss the pathophysiology, most common involved antibiotics, diagnostics and the treatment.

Axial light loss of monocytes as a readily available prognostic biomarker in patients with suspected infection at the emergency department

Objectives

To evaluate the prognostic value of the coefficient of variance of axial light loss of monocytes (cv-ALL of monocytes) for adverse clinical outcomes in patients suspected of infection in the emergency department (ED).

Methods

We performed an observational, retrospective monocenter study including all medical patients ≥18 years admitted to the ED between September 2016 and June 2019 with suspected infection. Adverse clinical outcomes included 30-day mortality and ICU/MCU admission <3 days after presentation. We determined the additional value of monocyte cv-ALL and compared to frequently used clinical prediction scores (SIRS, qSOFA, MEWS). Next, we developed a clinical model with routinely available parameters at the ED, including cv-ALL of monocytes.

Results

A total of 3526 of patients were included. The OR for cv-ALL of monocytes alone was 2.21 (1.98–2.47) for 30-day mortality and 2.07 (1.86–2.29) for ICU/MCU admission <3 days after ED presentation. When cv-ALL of monocytes was combined with a clinical score, the prognostic accuracy increased significantly for all tested scores (SIRS, qSOFA, MEWS). The maximum AUC for a model with routinely available parameters at the ED was 0.81 to predict 30-day mortality and 0.81 for ICU/MCU admission.

Conclusions

Cv-ALL of monocytes is a readily available biomarker that is useful as prognostic marker to predict 30-day mortality. Furthermore, it can be used to improve routine prediction of adverse clinical outcomes at the ED.

Clinical trial registration

Registered in the Dutch Trial Register (NTR) und number 6916.

A semi-supervised decision support system to facilitate antibiotic stewardship for urinary tract infections

Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) are among the most frequently occurring infections in the hospital. Urinalysis and urine culture are the main tools used for diagnosis. Whereas urinalysis is sufficiently sensitive for detecting UTI, it has a relatively low specificity, leading to unnecessary treatment with antibiotics and the risk of increasing antibiotic resistance. We performed an evaluation of the current diagnostic process with an expert-based label for UTI as outcome, retrospectively established using data from the Electronic Health Records. We found that the combination of urinalysis results with the Gram stain and other readily available parameters can be used effectively for predicting UTI. Based on the obtained information, we engineered a clinical decision support system (CDSS) using the reliable semi-supervised ensemble learning (RESSEL) method, and found it to be more accurate than urinalysis or the urine culture for prediction of UTI. The CDSS provides clinicians with this prediction within hours of ordering a culture and thereby enables them to hold off on prematurely prescribing antibiotics for UTI while awaiting the culture results.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization for detecting Coxiella burnetii in tissue samples from chronic Q fever patients

OBJECTIVE

Detection of the intracellular bacterium Coxiella burnetii, causative agent of chronic Q fever, is notoriously difficult. Diagnosis of and duration of antibiotic treatment for chronic Q fever is partly determined by detection of the bacterium with polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) might be a promising technique for detecting C. burnetii in tissue samples from chronic Q fever patients, but its value in comparison with PCR is uncertain. We aim to assess the value of FISH for detecting C. burnetii in tissue of chronic Q fever patients.

METHODS

FISH and PCR were performed on tissue samples from Dutch chronic Q fever patients collected during surgery or autopsy. Sensitivity, specificity, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated. Additionally, data on patient and disease characteristics were collected from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

In total, 49 tissue samples from mainly vascular walls, heart valves, or placentas, obtained from 39 chronic Q fever patients, were examined by FISH and PCR. The sensitivity and specificity of FISH compared to PCR for detecting C. burnetii in tissue samples from chronic Q fever patients was 45.2% (95% CI, 27.3% - 64.0%) and 84.6% (95% CI, 54.6% - 98.1%), respectively. The overall diagnostic accuracy was 56.8% (95% CI, 42.2% - 72.3%). Two C. burnetii PCR negative placentas were FISH positive. Four FISH results (8.2%) were deemed inconclusive because of autofluorescence.

CONCLUSION

With an overall diagnostic accuracy of 57.8%, we conclude that FISH has limited value in the routine diagnostics of chronic Q fever.

New clinical prediction model for early recognition of sepsis in adult primary care patients: a prospective diagnostic cohort study of development and external validation

BACKGROUND

Recognising patients who need immediate hospital treatment for sepsis while simultaneously limiting unnecessary referrals is challenging for GPs.

AIM

To develop and validate a sepsis prediction model for adult patients in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a prospective cohort study in four out-of-hours primary care services in the Netherlands, conducted between June 2018 and March 2020.

METHOD

Adult patients who were acutely ill and received home visits were included. A total of nine clinical variables were selected as candidate predictors, next to the biomarkers C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate. The primary endpoint was sepsis within 72 hours of inclusion, as established by an expert panel. Multivariable logistic regression with backwards selection was used to design an optimal model with continuous clinical variables. The added value of the biomarkers was evaluated. Subsequently, a simple model using single cut-off points of continuous variables was developed and externally validated in two emergency department populations.

RESULTS

A total of 357 patients were included with a median age of 80 years (interquartile range 71-86), of which 151 (42%) were diagnosed with sepsis. A model based on a simple count of one point for each of six variables (aged >65 years; temperature >38°C; systolic blood pressure ≤110 mmHg; heart rate >110/min; saturation ≤95%; and altered mental status) had good discrimination and calibration (C-statistic of 0.80 [95% confidence interval = 0.75 to 0.84]; Brier score 0.175). Biomarkers did not improve the performance of the model and were therefore not included. The model was robust during external validation.

CONCLUSION

Based on this study's GP out-of-hours population, a simple model can accurately predict sepsis in acutely ill adult patients using readily available clinical parameters.

The diagnostic value of nasal microbiota and clinical parameters in a multi-parametric prediction model to differentiate bacterial versus viral infections in lower respiratory tract infections

Background

The ability to accurately distinguish bacterial from viral infection would help clinicians better target antimicrobial therapy during suspected lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). Although technological developments make it feasible to rapidly generate patient-specific microbiota profiles, evidence is required to show the clinical value of using microbiota data for infection diagnosis. In this study, we investigated whether adding nasal cavity microbiota profiles to readily available clinical information could improve machine learning classifiers to distinguish bacterial from viral infection in patients with LRTI.

Results

Various multi-parametric Random Forests classifiers were evaluated on the clinical and microbiota data of 293 LRTI patients for their prediction accuracies to differentiate bacterial from viral infection. The most predictive variable was C-reactive protein (CRP). We observed a marginal prediction improvement when 7 most prevalent nasal microbiota genera were added to the CRP model. In contrast, adding three clinical variables, absolute neutrophil count, consolidation on X-ray, and age group to the CRP model significantly improved the prediction. The best model correctly predicted 85% of the ‘bacterial’ patients and 82% of the ‘viral’ patients using 13 clinical and 3 nasal cavity microbiota genera (Staphylococcus, Moraxella, and Streptococcus).

Conclusions

We developed high-accuracy multi-parametric machine learning classifiers to differentiate bacterial from viral infections in LRTI patients of various ages. We demonstrated the predictive value of four easy-to-collect clinical variables which facilitate personalized and accurate clinical decision-making. We observed that nasal cavity microbiota correlate with the clinical variables and thus may not add significant value to diagnostic algorithms that aim to differentiate bacterial from viral infections.

No increased risk of mature B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma after Q fever detected: results from a 16-year ecological analysis of the Dutch population incorporating the 2007-2010 Q fever outbreak

BACKGROUND

A causative role of Coxiella burnetii (the causative agent of Q fever) in the pathogenesis of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has been suggested, although supporting studies show conflicting evidence. We assessed whether this association is present by performing a detailed analysis on the risk of mature B-cell NHL after Q fever during and after the largest Q fever outbreak reported worldwide in the entire Dutch population over a 16-year period.

METHODS

We performed an ecological analysis. The incidence of mature B-cell NHL in the entire Dutch population from 2002 until 2017 was studied and modelled with reported acute Q fever cases as the determinant. The adjusted relative risk of NHL after acute Q fever as the primary outcome measure was calculated using a Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Between January 2002 and December 2017, 266 050 745 person-years were observed, with 61 424 diagnosed with mature B-cell NHL. In total, 4310 persons were diagnosed with acute Q fever, with the highest incidence in 2009. The adjusted relative risk of NHL after acute Q fever was 1.02 (95% CI 0.97-1.06, P = 0.49) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.89-1.07, P = 0.60), 0.99 (95% CI 0.87-1.12, P = 0.85) and 0.98 (95% 0.88-1.08, P = 0.67) for subgroups of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma or B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, respectively. Modelling with lag times (1-4 years) did not change interpretation.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence for an association between C. burnetii and NHL after studying the risk of mature B-cell NHL after a large Q fever outbreak in Netherlands.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

No Influence of Previous Coxiella burnetii Infection on ICU Admission and Mortality in Emergency Department Patients Infected with SARS-CoV-2

Background: the geographical similarities of the Dutch 2007–2010 Q fever outbreak and the start of the 2020 coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Netherlands raised questions and provided a unique opportunity to study an association between Coxiella burnetii infection and the outcome following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Dutch hospitals. We assessed evidence of previous C. burnetii infection in COVID-19 patients diagnosed at the ED during the first COVID-19 wave and compared a combined outcome of in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission using adjusted odds ratios (OR). Results: In total, 629 patients were included with a mean age of 68.0 years. Evidence of previous C. burnetii infection was found in 117 patients (18.6%). The combined primary outcome occurred in 40.2% and 40.4% of patients with and without evidence of previous C. burnetii infection respectively (adjusted OR of 0.926 (95% CI 0.605–1.416)). The adjusted OR of the secondary outcomes in-hospital mortality, ICU-admission and regular ward admission did not show an association either. Conclusion: no influence of previous C. burnetii infection on the risk of ICU admission and/or mortality for patients with COVID-19 presenting at the ED was observed.

Code status documentation at admission in COVID-19 patients: a descriptive cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic pressurised healthcare with increased shortage of care. This resulted in an increase of awareness for code status documentation (ie, whether limitations to specific life-sustaining treatments are in place), both in the medical field and in public media. However, it is unknown whether the increased awareness changed the prevalence and content of code status documentation for COVID-19 patients. We aim to describe differences in code status documentation between infectious patients before the pandemic and COVID-19 patients.

SETTING

University Medical Centre of Utrecht, a tertiary care teaching academic hospital in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1715 patients were included, 129 in the COVID-19 cohort (a cohort of COVID-19 patients, admitted from March 2020 to June 2020) and 1586 in the pre-COVID-19 cohort (a cohort of patients with (suspected) infections admitted between September 2016 to September 2018).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We described frequency of code status documentation, frequency of discussion of this code status with patient and/or family, and content of code status.

RESULTS

Frequencies of code status documentation (69.8% vs 72.7%, respectively) and discussion (75.6% vs 73.3%, respectively) were similar in both cohorts. More patients in the COVID-19 cohort than in the before COVID-19 cohort had any treatment limitation as opposed to full code (40% vs 25%). Within the treatment limitations, 'no intensive care admission' (81% vs 51%) and 'no intubation' (69% vs 40%) were more frequently documented in the COVID-19 cohort. A smaller difference was seen in 'other limitation' (17% vs 9%), while 'no resuscitation' (96% vs 92%) was comparable between both periods.

CONCLUSION

We observed no difference in the frequency of code status documentation or discussion in COVID-19 patients opposed to a pre-COVID-19 cohort. However, treatment limitations were more prevalent in patients with COVID-19, especially 'no intubation' and 'no intensive care admission'.

Differences in Documented and Actual Medication Administration Time in the Emergency Department: A Prospective, Observational, Time-Motion Study

INTRODUCTION

Retrospective studies suggest that a rapid initiation of treatment results in a better prognosis for patients in the emergency department. There could be a difference between the actual medication administration time and the documented time in the electronic health record. In this study, the difference between the observed medication administration time and documentation time was investigated. Patient and nurse characteristics were also tested for associations with observed time differences.

METHODS

In this prospective study, emergency nurses were followed by observers for a total of 3 months. Patient inclusion was divided over 2 time periods. The difference in the observed medication administration time and the corresponding electronic health record documentation time was measured. The association between patient/nurse characteristics and the difference in medication administration and documentation time was tested with a Spearman correlation or biserial correlation test.

RESULTS

In 34 observed patients, the median difference in administration and documentation time was 6.0 minutes (interquartile range 2.0-16.0). In 9 (26.5%) patients, the actual time of medication administration differed more than 15 minutes with the electronic health record documentation time. High temperature, lower saturation, oxygen-dependency, and high Modified Early Warning Score were all correlated with an increasing difference between administration and documentation times.

DISCUSSION

A difference between administration and documentation times of medication in the emergency department may be common, especially for more acute patients. This could bias, in part, previously reported time-to-treatment measurements from retrospective research designs, which should be kept in mind when outcomes of retrospective time-to-treatment studies are evaluated.

MO356THE INCIDENCE, MORTALITY AND RENAL OUTCOMES OF ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY IN PATIENTS WITH SUSPECTED INFECTION AT THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT

Background and Aims

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major health problem associated with considerable mortality and morbidity. The epidemiology of AKI in hospitalized and critically ill patients at the Intensive Care Unit with severe infection and sepsis has been well described, however data on mortality and clinical outcomes of AKI at the emergency department in patients with suspected infection are scarce. In this study, we investigated the incidence, mortality and renal outcomes after AKI up to one year after initial AKI-episode patients with suspected infection at the emergency department.

Method

We used data from the SPACE-cohort (SePsis in the ACutely ill patients in the Emergency department), which consisted of all consecutive patients that presented to the emergency department of the internal medicine with suspected infection in the period between 2016 and 2018 at the University Medical Center Utrecht. Clinical and laboratory data were prospectively collected of all patients. AKI was defined according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality and renal function. Hazards ratios were assessed using Cox regression to investigate the association between AKI, 1-year mortality and renal function decline after AKI. HRs were adjusted for potential confounders including age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index, immune status, smoking status, medication use (diuretics, proton-pump inhibitors, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)), disease severity, diagnosis in the emergency department. Decline of renal function after AKI episode at emergency department visit was defined as Serum Creatinine (SCr) level ≥30% above baseline. Survival in patients with and without AKI was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses.

Results

Of the 3105 patients in the SPACE-cohort with suspected infection, we included 1716, who fulfilled the inclusion criteria and had a baseline SCr measurement. Patients without SCr at baseline (401 patients), at emergence department visit (113 patients), during follow-up (33 patients), on renal replacement therapy (66 patients) or had a repeated emergency department visit (776 patients) were excluded. Of the 1716 patients presenting with suspected infection patients (median age 62y, 52.9% male), 185 patients (10.8%) had an AKI episode. Mortality was 23.8% for the AKI group and 20.4% for the non-AKI group. The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality at 1-year after presentation at the emergency department in AKI patients was 2.1 (95% CI 1.5 – 3.1). Moreover, the cumulative incidence of renal function decline was 69.8% for patients with AKI and 39.3% for patients without AKI. Patients with an episode of AKI had higher risks of developing renal function decline (adjusted HR 3.3, 95% CI 2.4-4.5) at one year after initial AKI-episode at the emergency department.

Conclusion

Acute kidney injury is common in patients with suspected infection in the emergency department and is significantly associated with mortality and renal function decline one year after AKI.

Still new chronic Q fever cases diagnosed eight years after a large Q fever outbreak

BACKGROUND

Chronic Q fever usually develops within two years after primary infection with Coxiella burnetii. We determined the interval between acute Q fever and diagnosis of chronic infection, assessed what factors contribute to a longer interval, and evaluated the long-term follow-up.

METHODS

From 2007-2018, patients with chronic Q fever were included from 45 participating hospitals. The interval between acute and chronic infection was calculated in patients with a known day of first symptoms and/or serological confirmation of acute Q fever. Chronic Q fever-related complications and mortality were assessed by two investigators based on predefined criteria.

RESULTS

In total, 313 (60.3%) proven, 81 (15.6%) probable and 125 (24.1%) possible chronic Q fever patients were identified. The date of acute Q fever was known in 200 patients: in 45 (22.5%) the interval was longer than two years with the longest observed interval being 9.2 years. Patients in whom serological follow-up was performed after acute Q fever were diagnosed less often after this two-year interval (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.12-0.54). Chronic Q fever-related complications occurred in 216 patients (41.6%). Chronic Q fever-related mortality occurred in 83 (26.5%) of proven and 3 (3.7%) of probable chronic Q fever patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic Q fever is still being diagnosed and mortality keeps occurring eight years after a large outbreak. Intervals between acute Q fever and diagnosis of chronic infection can reach over 9 years. We urge physicians to perform microbiological testing for chronic Q fever even many years after an outbreak or acute Q fever disease.

The prognostic value of serological titres for clinical outcomes during treatment and follow-up of patients with chronic Q fever

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the prognostic value of phase I IgG titres during treatment and follow-up of chronic Q fever.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the course of phase I IgG titres in chronic Q fever. We used a multivariable time-varying Cox regression to assess our primary (first disease-related event) and secondary (therapy failure) outcomes. In a second analysis, we evaluated serological characteristics after 1 year of therapy (fourfold decrease in phase I IgG titre, absence of phase II IgM and reaching phase I IgG titre of ≤1:1024) with multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

In total, 337 patients that were treated for proven (n = 284, 84.3%) or probable (n = 53, 15.7%) chronic Q fever were included. Complications occurred in 190 (56.4%), disease-related mortality in 71 (21.1%) and therapy failure in 142 (42.1%) patients. The course of phase I IgG titres was not associated with first disease-related event (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.86-1.15) or therapy failure (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.91-1.15). Similar results were found for the serological characteristics for the primary (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.62-1.51; HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.66-1.90; HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.57-1.69, respectively) and secondary outcomes (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.57-1.29; HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.86-2.18; HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.48-1.34, respectively).

DISCUSSION

Coxiella burnetii serology does not reliably predict disease-related events or therapy failure during treatment and follow-up of chronic Q fever. Alternative markers for disease management are needed, but, for now, management should be based on clinical factors, PCR results, and imaging results.

Retrospective study on the possible existence of a treatment paradox in sepsis scores in the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is developed as a tool to identify patients with infection with increased risk of dying from sepsis in non-intensive care unit settings, like the emergency department (ED). An abnormal score may trigger the initiation of appropriate therapy to reduce that risk. This study assesses the risk of a treatment paradox: the effect of a strong predictor for mortality will be reduced if that predictor also acts as a trigger for initiating treatment to prevent mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis on data from a large observational cohort.

SETTING

ED of a tertiary medical centre in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

3178 consecutive patients with suspected infection.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

To evaluate the existence of a treatment paradox by determining the influence of baseline qSOFA on treatment decisions within the first 24 hours after admission.

RESULTS

226 (7.1%) had a qSOFA ≥2, of which 51 (22.6%) died within 30 days. Area under receiver operating characteristics of qSOFA for 30-day mortality was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.75). Patients with a qSOFA ≥2 had higher odds of receiving any form of intensive therapy (OR 11.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 17.1)), such as aggressive fluid resuscitation (OR 8.8 95% CI 6.6 to 11.8), fast antibiotic administration (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.7 to 12.3) or vasopressic therapy (OR 17.3, 95% CI 11.2 to 26.8), compared with patients with qSOFA <2.

CONCLUSION

In ED patients with suspected infection, a qSOFA ≥2 was associated with more intensive treatment. This could lead to inadequate prediction of 30-day mortality due to the presence of a treatment paradox.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

6916.

Long-term serological follow-up after primary Coxiella burnetii infection in patients with vascular risk factors for chronic Q fever

We evaluated the long-term serological follow-up of patients with vascular risk factors for chronic Q fever that were previously Coxiella burnetii seropositive. C. burnetii phase I IgG titers were reevaluated in patients that gave informed consent or retrospectively collected in patients already deceased or lost to follow-up. Of 107 patients, 25 (23.4%) became seronegative, 77 (72.0%) retained a profile of past resolved Q fever infection, and five (4.7%) developed chronic Q fever. We urge clinicians to stay vigilant for chronic Q fever beyond two years after primary infection and perform serological testing based on clinical presentation.

Effectiveness of oseltamivir in reduction of complications and 30-day mortality in severe seasonal influenza infection

OBJECTIVES

The benefit of oseltamivir treatment in patients admitted with influenza virus infection and the design of studies addressing this issue have been questioned extensively. As the burden of influenza disease is substantial and oseltamivir treatment is biologically plausible, this study assessed the clinical benefit of oseltamivir treatment in adult patients admitted with severe seasonal influenza virus infection in daily practice.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A multi-centre, retrospective cohort study was conducted to compare the effectiveness of treatment with and without oseltamivir <48 h after admission in patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in three large hospitals in the Netherlands. Propensity score matching was used to compare clinically relevant outcome variables.

RESULTS

In total, 390 patients were included in this study, of whom 80% had comorbidities. Thirty-day mortality, as well as the composite endpoint of 30-day mortality or intensive care unit admission >48 h after admission, were reduced by 9% (P=0.04) and 11% (P=0.02), respectively. Length of hospital stay and in-hospital mortality rates all showed a trend towards reduction. The median duration between symptom onset and initiation of treatment was 3 days.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports that, in daily practice, patients admitted with influenza virus infection should be treated with oseltamivir within 48 h of admission, even if they have had complaints for >48 h.

Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to assess national surveillance data for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2017

Background

To control respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory infections, data and methods to assess its epidemiology are important.

Aim

We sought to describe RSV seasonality, affected age groups and RSV-type distribution over 12 consecutive seasons in the Netherlands, as well as to validate the moving epidemic method (MEM) for monitoring RSV epidemics.

Methods

We used 2005−17 laboratory surveillance data and sentinel data. For RSV seasonality evaluation, epidemic thresholds (i) at 1.2% of the cumulative number of RSV-positive patients per season and (ii) at 20 detections per week (for laboratory data) were employed. We also assessed MEM thresholds.

Results

In laboratory data RSV was reported 25,491 times (no denominator). In sentinel data 5.6% (767/13,577) of specimens tested RSV positive. Over 12 seasons, sentinel data showed percentage increases of RSV positive samples. The average epidemic length was 18.0 weeks (95% confidence intervals (CI):  16.3–19.7) and 16.5 weeks (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) for laboratory and sentinel data, respectively. Epidemics started on average in week 46 (95% CI: 45–48) and 47 (95% CI:  46–49), respectively. The peak was on average in the first week of January in both datasets. MEM showed similar results to the other methods. RSV incidence was highest in youngest (0–1 and >1–2 years) and oldest (>65–75 and > 75 years) age groups, with age distribution remaining stable over time. RSV-type dominance alternated every one or two seasons.

Conclusions

Our findings provide baseline information for immunisation advisory groups. The possibility of employing MEM to monitor RSV epidemics allows prospective, nearly real-time use of surveillance data.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3751143 in P2RX7 is associated with therapy failure in chronic Q fever while rs7125062 in MMP1 is associated with fewer complications

OBJECTIVES

Chronic Q fever is a persistent infection with the intracellular bacterium Coxiella burnetii. Development of chronic Q fever is associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding for pattern recognition receptors, for phagolysosomal pathway components and for matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). We evaluated the association of SNPs in these innate-immunity and MMP genes with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

SNPs were selected from previous association studies and analysed in a cohort of patients with chronic Q fever. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were therapy failure and chronic Q fever-related complications. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) were calculated.

RESULTS

Nineteen SNPs were analysed in 134 patients with proven and 29 with probable chronic Q fever. In multivariable analysis, none of the selected SNPs was associated with all-cause mortality. However, SNP rs3751143 located in P2RX7 appeared to be associated with therapy failure (SHR 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-5.05; p 0.02), which is in line with other reports, showing that a loss of function of the P2X7 receptor leads to inefficient killing of intracellular organisms. In addition, SNP rs7125062 located in MMP1, involved in the cleavage of extracellular matrix, was associated with fewer chronic Q fever-related complications such as acute aneurysms (SHR 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.83; p 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

A polymorphism in P2RX7, known to lead to loss of function of the receptor and inefficient killing of intracellular organisms, and a polymorphism in MMP1 were respectively associated with more therapy failures and fewer complications such as acute aneurysms in patients with chronic Q fever.

Interventions for rapid recognition and treatment of sepsis in the emergency department: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Early recognition and treatment of sepsis is associated with improved outcome. The emergency department (ED) is the department where patients with sepsis seek care. However, recognition of sepsis in the ED remains difficult. Different alert and triage systems, screening scores and intervention strategies have been developed to assist clinicians in early recognition of sepsis and to optimize management.

OBJECTIVES

This narrative review describes currently applied interventions or interventions we can start using today, such as screening scores, (automated) triage systems, sepsis teams and clinical pathways in sepsis care; and it summarizes evidence for the effect of implementation of these interventions in the ED on patient management and outcomes.

SOURCES

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, resulting in 39 eligible studies.

CONTENT

The main sepsis interventions in the ED are (automated) triage systems, sepsis teams and clinical pathways, the most integrative being a clinical pathway. Implementation of any of these interventions in sepsis care will generally lead to increased protocol adherence. Presumably increased adherence to sepsis guidelines and bundles will lead to better patient outcomes, but the level of evidence to support this improvement is low, whereas implementation of interventions is often complex and costly. No studies comparing different interventions were identified. Two essential factors for success of interventions in the ED are obtaining the support from all professionals and providing ongoing education. The vulnerability of these interventions lies in the lack of accurate tools to identify sepsis; diagnosing sepsis ultimately still relies on clinical assessments. A lack of specificity or sepsis alerts may lead to alert fatigue and/or overtreatment.

IMPLICATIONS

The severity and poor outcome of sepsis as well as the frequency of its presentation in EDs make a structured, protocol-based approach towards these patients essential, preferably as part of a clinical pathway.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening Program for Chronic Q Fever, the Netherlands

In the aftermath of a large Q fever (QF) epidemic in the Netherlands during 2007-2010, new chronic QF (CQF) patients continue to be detected. We developed a health-economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a 1-time screening program for CQF 7 years after the epidemic. The model was parameterized with spatial data on QF notifications for the Netherlands, prevalence data from targeted screening studies, and clinical data from the national QF database. The cost-effectiveness of screening varied substantially among subpopulations and geographic areas. Screening that focused on cardiovascular risk patients in areas with high QF incidence during the epidemic ranged from cost-saving to €31,373 per quality-adjusted life year gained, depending on the method to estimate the prevalence of CQF. The cost per quality-adjusted life year of mass screening of all older adults was €70,000 in the most optimistic scenario.

Development of a clinical prediction rule for sepsis in primary care: protocol for the TeSD-IT study

BACKGROUND

Early recognition and treatment of sepsis is crucial to prevent detrimental outcomes. General practitioners (GPs) are often the first healthcare providers to encounter seriously ill patients. The aim of this study is to assess the value of clinical information and additional tests to develop a clinical prediction rule to support early diagnosis and management of sepsis by GPs.

METHODS

We will perform a diagnostic study in the setting of out-of-hours home visits in four GP cooperatives in the Netherlands. Acutely ill adult patients suspected of a serious infection will be screened for eligibility by the GP. The following candidate predictors will be prospectively recorded: (1) age, (2) body temperature, (3) systolic blood pressure, (4) heart rate, (5) respiratory rate, (6) peripheral oxygen saturation, (7) mental status, (8) history of rigors, and (9) rate of progression. After clinical assessment by the GP, blood samples will be collected in all patients to measure C-reactive protein, lactate, and procalcitonin. All patients will receive care as usual. The primary outcome is the presence or absence of sepsis within 72 h after inclusion, according to an expert panel. The need for hospital treatment for any indication will be assessed by the expert panel as a secondary outcome. Multivariable logistic regression will be used to design an optimal prediction model first and subsequently derive a simplified clinical prediction rule that enhances feasibility of using the model in daily clinical practice. Bootstrapping will be performed for internal validation of both the optimal model and simplified prediction rule. Performance of both models will be compared to existing clinical prediction rules for sepsis.

DISCUSSION

This study will enable us to develop a clinical prediction rule for the recognition of sepsis in a high-risk primary care setting to aid in the decision which patients have to be immediately referred to a hospital and who can be safely treated at home. As clinical signs and blood samples will be obtained prospectively, near-complete data will be available for analyses. External validation will be needed before implementation in routine care and to determine in which pre-hospital settings care can be improved using the prediction rule.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is registered in the Netherlands Trial Registry (registration number NTR7026).

The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width in patients with suspected infection in the emergency department

Background

Sepsis is a potential life threatening dysregulated immune response to an infection, which can result in multi-organ failure and death. Unfortunately, good prognostic markers are lacking in patients with suspected infection to identify those at risk. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is a common and inexpensive hematologic laboratory measurement associated with adverse prognosis in multiple diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of RDW for mortality and early clinical deterioration in patients with a suspected infection in the emergency department.

Methods

In this single center prospective observational cohort study, consecutive patients with suspected infection presenting for internal medicine in the emergency department between September 2016 and March 2018 were included. For prognostic validation of bedside sepsis scores and RDW receiver operating characteristics were generated. Association between RDW and mortality and ICU admission was analyzed univariate and in a multivariate logistic regression model.

Results

1046 patients were included. In multivariate analyses, RDW was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (OR 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04–1.28) and early clinical deterioration (OR 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00–1.18). For 30-day mortality RDW had an AUROC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.59–0.72). Optimal cut-off value for RDW 2 was 12.95%. For early clinical deterioration RDW had an AUROC of 0.59 (95% CI 0.54–0.63) with an optimal cut-off value of 14.48%.

Conclusions

RDW was found to be a significant independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and early clinical deterioration in patients with suspected infection.. Therefore it can be a used as an extra marker besides bedside sepsis scores in identifying patients at risk for worse outcome in patients with suspected infection.

Serious gaming in internal medicine education: do we know best or do we know last?

The use of digital tools is indispensable in our daily lives. The medical world keeps up with this progress by implementing digital tools to facilitate and improve patient care, such as eConsults and self-care apps. Serious games are also becoming increasingly popular in healthcare education, particularly in surgical residency training and nursing education. However, gaming and digitisation of education have not been widely integrated in internal medicine residency education yet. Therefore, these programs are not yet modernised to meet the demands of the 21th century physician. In this article, we will explicate our view on digitisation of the internal medical education programme with special attention to serious gaming. We will discuss pros and cons of digitisation, describe challenges of development and implementation of games, and offer some examples of digital educational tools for practical use.

High Treatment Uptake in Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus-Coinfected Patients After Unrestricted Access to Direct-Acting Antivirals in the Netherlands

Background

The Netherlands has provided unrestricted access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) since November 2015. We analyzed the nationwide hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment uptake among patients coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and HCV.

Methods

Data were obtained from the ATHENA HIV observational cohort in which >98% of HIV-infected patients ever registered since 1998 are included. Patients were included if they ever had 1 positive HCV RNA result, did not have spontaneous clearance, and were known to still be in care. Treatment uptake and outcome were assessed. When patients were treated more than once, data were included from only the most recent treatment episode. Data were updated until February 2017. In addition, each treatment center was queried in April 2017 for a data update on DAA treatment and achieved sustained virological response.

Results

Of 23574 HIV-infected patients ever linked to care, 1471 HCV-coinfected patients (69% men who have sex with men, 15% persons who [formerly] injected drugs, and 15% with another HIV transmission route) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 87% (1284 of 1471) had ever initiated HCV treatment between 2000 and 2017, 76% (1124 of 1471) had their HCV infection cured; DAA treatment results were pending in 6% (92 of 1471). Among men who have sex with men, 83% (844 of 1022) had their HCV infection cured, and DAA treatment results were pending in 6% (66 of 1022). Overall, 187 patients had never initiated treatment, DAAs had failed in 14, and a pegylated interferon-alfa-based regimen had failed in 54.

Conclusions

Fifteen months after unrestricted DAA availability the majority of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients in the Netherlands have their HCV infection cured (76%) or are awaiting DAA treatment results (6%). This rapid treatment scale-up may contribute to future HCV elimination among these patients.

Treatment of Chronic Q Fever: Clinical Efficacy and Toxicity of Antibiotic Regimens

Background

Evidence on the effectiveness of first-line treatment for chronic Q fever, tetracyclines (TET) plus hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), and potential alternatives is scarce.

Methods

We performed a retrospective, observational cohort study to assess efficacy of treatment with TET plus quinolones (QNL), TET plus QNL plus HCQ, QNL monotherapy, or TET monotherapy compared to TET plus HCQ in chronic Q fever patients. We used a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model to assess our primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary outcomes (first disease-related event and therapy failure).

Results

We assessed 322 chronic Q fever patients; 276 (86%) received antibiotics. Compared to TET plus HCQ (n = 254; 92%), treatment with TET plus QNL (n = 49; 17%), TET plus QNL plus HCQ (n = 29, 10%), QNL monotherapy (n = 93; 34%), or TET monotherapy (n = 54; 20%) were not associated with primary or secondary outcomes. QNL and TET monotherapies were frequently discontinued due to insufficient clinical response (n = 27, 29% and n = 32, 59%). TET plus HCQ, TET plus QNL, and TET plus QNL plus HCQ were most frequently discontinued due to side effects (n = 110, 43%; n = 13, 27%; and n = 12, 41%).

Conclusions

Treatment of chronic Q fever with TET plus QNL appears to be a safe alternative for TET plus HCQ, for example, if TET plus HCQ cannot be tolerated due to side effects. Treatment with TET plus QNL plus HCQ was not superior to treatment with TET plus HCQ, although this may be caused by confounding by indication. Treatment with TET or QNL monotherapy should be avoided; switches due to subjective, insufficient clinical response were frequently observed.

Antibiotic treatment for 6 days versus 12 days in patients with severe cellulitis: a multicentre randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether antibiotic treatment of 6 days' duration is non-inferior to treatment for 12 days in patients hospitalized for cellulitis.

METHODS

This multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial enrolled adult patients hospitalized for severe cellulitis who were treated with intravenous flucloxacillin. At day 6 participants with symptom improvement who were afebrile were randomized between an additional 6 days of oral flucloxacillin or placebo in a 1:1 ratio, stratified for diabetes and hospital. The primary outcome was cure by day 14, without relapse by day 28. Secondary outcomes included a modified cure assessment and relapse rate by day 90.

RESULTS

Between August 2014 and June 2017, 151 of 248 included participants were randomized. The intention-to-treat population consisted of 76 and 73 participants allocated to 12 and 6 days of antibiotic therapy, respectively (mean age 62 years, 67% males, 24% diabetics); 38/76 (50.0%) and 36/73 (49.3%) were cured in the 12- and 6-day groups respectively (ARR 0.7 percentage points, 95%CI: -15.0 to 16.3). Cure rates were 56/76 (73.7%) and 49/73 (67.1%) with the modified cure assessment (ARR 6.6, 95%CI: -8.0 to 20.8). After initial cure without relapse, day 90 relapse rates were higher in the 6-day group (6% versus 24%, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the wide confidence intervals, we can neither confirm nor refute our hypothesis that 6 days of therapy is non-inferior to 12 days of therapy. However, a 6-day course resulted in significantly more frequent relapses by day 90. These findings require confirmation in future studies.

Confounding by indication of the safety of de-escalation in community-acquired pneumonia: A simulation study embedded in a prospective cohort

Observational studies have demonstrated that de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy is independently associated with lower mortality. This most probably results from confounding by indication. Reaching clinical stability is associated with the decision to de-escalate and with survival. However, studies rarely adjust for this confounder. We quantified the potential confounding effect of clinical stability on the estimated impact of de-escalation on mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Data were used from the Community-Acquired Pneumonia immunization Trial in Adults (CAPiTA). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We performed Cox proportional-hazards regression with de-escalation as time-dependent variable and adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. The potential impact of unmeasured confounding was quantified through simulating a variable representing clinical stability on day three, using data on prevalence and associations with mortality from the literature. Of 1,536 included patients, 257 (16.7%) were de-escalated, 123 (8.0%) were escalated and in 1156 (75.3%) the antibiotic spectrum remained unchanged. Crude 30-day mortality was 3.5% (9/257) and 10.9% (107/986) in the de-escalation and continuation groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of de-escalation for 30-day mortality (compared to patients with unchanged coverage), without adjustment for clinical stability, was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.19–0.79). If 90% to 100% of de-escalated patients were clinically stable on day three, the fully adjusted hazard ratio would be 0.56 (95%CI: 0.27–1.12) to 1.04 (95%CI: 0.49–2.23), respectively. The simulated confounder was substantially stronger than any of the baseline confounders in our dataset. Quantification of effects of de-escalation on patient outcomes without proper adjustment for clinical stability results in strong negative bias. This study suggests the effect of de-escalation on mortality needs further well-designed prospective research to determine effect size more accurately.

Rapid Molecular Tests for Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and Other Respiratory Viruses: A Systematic Review of Diagnostic Accuracy and Clinical Impact Studies

We systematically reviewed available evidence from Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane Library on diagnostic accuracy and clinical impact of commercially available rapid (results <3 hours) molecular diagnostics for respiratory viruses as compared to conventional molecular tests. Quality of included studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies criteria for diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies, and the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment and Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized Studies of Interventions criteria for randomized and observational impact studies, respectively. Sixty-three DTA reports (56 studies) were meta-analyzed with a pooled sensitivity of 90.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.7%-93.1%) and specificity of 96.1% (95% CI, 94.2%-97.9%) for the detection of either influenza virus (n = 29), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (n = 1), influenza virus and RSV (n = 19), or a viral panel including influenza virus and RSV (n = 14). The 15 included impact studies (5 randomized) were very heterogeneous and results were therefore inconclusive. However, we suggest that implementation of rapid diagnostics in hospital care settings should be considered.

External validation and update of a prognostic model to predict mortality in hospitalized adults with RSV: A retrospective Dutch cohort study

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant mortality in hospitalized adults. Prediction of poor outcomes improves targeted management and clinical outcomes. We externally validated and updated existing models to predict poor outcome in hospitalized RSV-infected adults. In this single center, retrospective, observational cohort study, we included hospitalized adults with respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and a positive polymerase chain reaction for RSV (A/B) on respiratory tract samples (2005-2018). We validated existing prediction models and updated the best discriminating model by revision, recalibration, and incremental value testing. We included 192 RSV-infected patients (median age 60.7 years, 57% male, 65% immunocompromised, and 43% with lower RTI). Sixteen patients (8%) died within 30 days. During hospitalization, 16 (8%) died, 30 (16%) were admitted to intensive care unit, 21 (11%) needed invasive mechanical ventilation, and 5 (3%) noninvasive positive pressure ventilation. Existing models performed moderately at external validation, with C-statistics 0.6 to 0.7 and moderate calibration. Updating to a model including lower RTI, chronic pulmonary disease, temperature, confusion and urea, increased the C-statistic to 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.91) to predict in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, existing models to predict poor prognosis among hospitalized RSV-infected adults perform moderately at external validation. A prognostic model may help to identify and treat RSV-infected adults at high-risk of death.

The effect of measuring serum doxycycline concentrations on clinical outcomes during treatment of chronic Q fever

Background

First choice treatment for chronic Q fever is doxycycline plus hydroxychloroquine. Serum doxycycline concentration (SDC) >5 μg/mL has been associated with a favourable serological response, but the effect on clinical outcomes is unknown.

Objectives

To assess the effect of measuring SDC during treatment of chronic Q fever on clinical outcomes.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study, to assess the effect of measuring SDC on clinical outcomes in patients treated with doxycycline and hydroxychloroquine for chronic Q fever. Primary outcome was the first disease-related event (new complication or chronic Q fever-related mortality); secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and PCR-positivity. Multivariable analysis was performed with a Cox proportional hazards model, with shared-frailty terms for different hospitals included.

Results

We included 201 patients (mean age 68 years, 83% male): in 167 patients (83%) SDC was measured, 34 patients (17%) were treated without SDC measurement. First SDC was >5 μg/mL in 106 patients (63%), all with 200 mg doxycycline daily. In patients with SDC measured, dosage was adjusted in 41% (n = 68), concerning an increase in 64 patients. Mean SDC was 4.1 μg/mL before dosage increase, and 5.9 μg/mL afterwards. SDC measurement was associated with a lower risk for disease-related events (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.26-0.97, P = 0.04), but not with all-cause mortality or PCR-positivity.

Conclusions

SDC measurement decreases the risk for disease-related events, potentially through more optimal dosing or improved compliance. We recommend measurement of SDC and striving for SDC >5 μg/mL and <10 μg/mL during treatment of chronic Q fever.

Pitfalls of molecular diagnostic testing for Coxiella burnetii DNA on throat swabs

INTRODUCTION

Coxiella burnetii, the causative pathogen of Q fever, is regularly detected in throat swabs from patients without serological evidence of Q fever infection. C. burnetii is also frequently found in bulk tank milk from dairy cows. We evaluated the false positivity rate of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for C. burnetii DNA on throat swabs and investigated whether recent consumption of C. burnetii DNA-positive cow milk could contribute to this phenomenon.

METHODS

C. burnetii PCR was performed on throat swabs obtained from patients in whom a throat swab was ordered for other diagnostic purposes; patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP); and healthy volunteers after consumption of commercial C. burnetii-containing cow milk products.

RESULTS

C. burnetii DNA was found in 5.0% of throat swabs ordered for other diagnostic purposes and in 15.3% of throat swabs from CAP patients without serological evidence of Q fever pneumonia. The positive and negative predictive value of C. burnetii PCR on throat swabs for Q fever pneumonia were 66.7% (95% CI, 38.0-88.2) and 48.9% (95% CI, 41.3-54.6), respectively. After consumption of commercial C. burnetii-containing cow milk products, C. burnetii DNA could be detected in throat swabs for as long as 30 min after ingestion.

CONCLUSION

C. burnetii PCR on throat swabs is of low diagnostic value for Q fever pneumonia and was false positive in 15.3% of CAP patients without Q fever pneumonia. Recent consumption of C. burnetii-containing products can influence the outcome of C. burnetii PCR on throat swabs. Therefore, diagnosis of C. burnetii infection should be made in combination with serology or PCR performed on blood.

Seroprevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies and chronic Q fever among post-mortal and living donors of tissues and cells from 2010 to 2015 in the Netherlands

After a large Q fever outbreak in the Netherlands in the period from 2007 to 2010, the risk of Q fever transmission through tissue and cell transplantation from undiagnosed chronic Q fever cases became a potential issue. Aim: We aimed to evaluate the risk of Q fever transmission through tissue and cell transplantation. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational cohort study among 15,133 Dutch donors of tissues and stem cells from 2010 to 2015 to assess seroprevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies, to identify factors associated with presence of C. burnetii antibodies, and to assess the proportion of undiagnosed chronic Q fever cases. Results: The study population consisted of 9,478 (63%) femoral head donors, 5,090 (34%) post-mortal tissue donors and 565 (4%) cord blood donors. Seroprevalence of C. burnetii antibodies gradually decreased after the outbreak, from 2.1% in 2010 to 1.4% in 2015, with a significant trend in time (p < 0.001). Of 301 seropositive donors, seven (2.3%) were newly detected with chronic Q fever (0.05% of all screened donors). Conclusion: This study shows that seroprevalence of C. burnetii antibodies among donors of tissues and cells in the Netherlands after 2014 was similar to pre-outbreak levels in the general population. The proportion of newly detected chronic Q fever patients among donors of tissues and cells was smaller than 0.1%. This study may prompt discussion on when to terminate the screening programme for chronic Q fever in donors of tissues and cells in the Netherlands.

Antibiotic misuse in respiratory tract infections in children and adults-a prospective, multicentre study (TAILORED Treatment)

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are more commonly caused by viral pathogens in children than in adults. Surprisingly, little is known about antibiotic use in children as compared to adults with RTI. This prospective study aimed to determine antibiotic misuse in children and adults with RTI, using an expert panel reference standard, in order to prioritise the target age population for antibiotic stewardship interventions. We recruited children and adults who presented at the emergency department or were hospitalised with clinical presentation of RTI in The Netherlands and Israel. A panel of three experienced physicians adjudicated a reference standard diagnosis (i.e. bacterial or viral infection) for all the patients using all available clinical and laboratory information, including a 28-day follow-up assessment. The cohort included 284 children and 232 adults with RTI (median age, 1.3 years and 64.5 years, respectively). The proportion of viral infections was larger in children than in adults (209(74%) versus 89(38%), p < 0.001). In case of viral RTI, antibiotics were prescribed (i.e. overuse) less frequently in children than in adults (77/209 (37%) versus 74/89 (83%), p < 0.001). One (1%) child and three (2%) adults with bacterial infection were not treated with antibiotics (i.e. underuse); all were mild cases. This international, prospective study confirms major antibiotic overuse in patients with RTI. Viral infection is more common in children, but antibiotic overuse is more frequent in adults with viral RTI. Together, these findings support the need for effective interventions to decrease antibiotic overuse in RTI patients of all ages.

High epidemic burden of RSV disease coinciding with genetic alterations causing amino acid substitutions in the RSV G-protein during the 2016/2017 season in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

We found amino acid substitutions in the Gglycoprotein of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A during the 2016/2017 epidemic in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated whether these alterations led to increased RSV incidence and disease burden.

STUDY DESIGN

We sequenced the gene encoding the G-protein of prospectively collected clinical specimens from secondary care adult patients testing positive for RSV during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 epidemic RSV season. We evaluated associations between genetic, clinical and epidemiological data.

RESULTS

We included 49 RSV strains. In 2016/2017 28 strains were included, 20 community acquired RSV-A, 5 hospital acquired RSV-A and 3 community acquired RSV-B. In 2017/2018 21 strains were included, 8 community acquired RSV-A and 13 community acquired RSV-B. G-proteins of 10 out of the 20 community acquired 2016/2017 RSV-A strains shared a set of eight novel amino acid substitutions of which seven in mucin-like regions 1 and 2 and one in the heparin binding domain. This genetic variant was no longer detected among 2017/2018 RSV-A strains. Among patients carrying the novel RSV-A strain-type, 30% died.

CONCLUSIONS

A set of eight amino acid substitutions was found in 50% of the 2016/2017 community acquired RSV-A G-proteins. This combination of substitutions was globally never observed before. The appearance of this new strain-type coincided with an increased RSV peak in The Netherlands and was associated with higher disease severity. The transient character of this epidemic strain-type suggests rapid clearance of this lineage in our study community.

Chronic Q fever-related complications and mortality: data from a nationwide cohort

OBJECTIVES

Chronic infection with Coxiella burnetii (chronic Q fever) can cause life-threatening conditions such as endocarditis, infected vascular prostheses, and infected arterial aneurysms. We aimed to assess prognosis of chronic Q fever patients in terms of complications and mortality.

METHODS

A large cohort of chronic Q fever patients was assessed to describe complications, overall mortality and chronic Q fever-related mortality. Chronic Q fever-related mortality was expressed as a case fatality rate (number of chronic Q fever-related deaths/number of chronic Q fever patients).

RESULTS

Complications occurred in 166 of 439 (38%) chronic Q fever patients: in 61% of proven (153/249), 15% of probable (11/74), and 2% of possible chronic Q fever patients (2/116). Most frequently observed complications were acute aneurysms (14%), heart failure (13%), and non-cardiac abscesses (10%). Overall mortality was 38% (94/249) for proven chronic Q fever patients (median follow-up 3.6 years) and 22% (16/74) for probable chronic Q fever patients (median follow-up 4.7 years). The case fatality rate was 25% for proven (63/249) chronic Q fever patients and 4% for probable (3/74) chronic Q fever patients. Overall survival was significantly lower in patients with complications, compared to those without complications (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In chronic Q fever patients, complications occur frequently and contribute to the mortality rate. Patients with proven chronic Q fever have the highest risk of complications and chronic Q fever-related mortality. Prognosis for patients with possible chronic Q fever is favourable in terms of complications and mortality.

Coxiella burnetii in non-Hodgkin lymphoma tissue samples: Innocent until proven otherwise?

PURPOSE

Coxiella burnetii has been suggested as a potential cause of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (B-NHL), as C. burnetii was detected in B-NHL tissues. To further investigate this potential relationship, we hypothesized that among subjects previously exposed to C. burnetii, the bacterium is more frequently detectable in tissues of patients with B-NHL (cases) compared to patients without B-NHL (controls).

METHODS

We aimed to evaluate this hypothesis by assessing the presence of C. burnetii with polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunofluorescence staining (IF) and fluorescent in-situ hybridization (FISH). Eligible patients were those previously exposed to C. burnetii.

RESULTS

Samples were available for 13 cases and 16 controls. C. burnetii was demonstrated in tissues of 8/29 patients in total (28%), with either PCR, IF or FISH: in 5/13 cases (38%) and 3/16 controls (19%), p = 0.41. Negative and positive control samples were all negative and positive appropriately for all three diagnostic methods.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients previously exposed to C. burnetii the bacterium was detected in tissue samples from subjects with and without B-NHL, without significant differences in the proportion positive samples. Therefore, we conclude that detection of C. burnetii in tissues of patients previously exposed to C. burnetii is a non-specific finding.

Chronic Q fever: patient and treatment-related factors influencing long-term quality of life

BACKGROUND

Chronic Q fever is accompanied by high mortality and morbidity, and requires prolonged antibiotic treatment. Little is known on long-term quality of life (LQOL) in chronic Q fever patients treated with antibiotics.

AIM

To identify patient and treatment-related factors associated with impaired LQOL in chronic Q fever patients treated with antibiotics, and to assess patients' perception on treatment.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

LQOL was assessed with a validated questionnaire from the Nijmegen Clinical Screening Instrument. Patients' perception on treatment was measured with three newly developed questions.

RESULTS

We included 64 patients: LQOL was impaired in 55% (n = 35) after a median follow-up of 5 years. Median treatment duration was 27 months. In multivariable analysis, treatment duration was significantly associated with impaired LQOL (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.02-1.12, P < 0.01 per month increase). Age, gender, number of antibiotic regimens, surgical intervention, complications, diagnostic classification, focus of infection or registration of side effects during treatment were not associated with impaired LQOL. After start of treatment, 17 patients (27%) perceived improvement of their condition. Disadvantages of treatment were experienced on a daily basis by 24 patients (69%) with impaired LQOL and 13 patients (46%) without impaired LQOL (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

LQOL in chronic Q fever patients treated with antibiotics is impaired in more than half of patients 5 years after diagnosis. Antibiotic treatment duration was the only variable associated with impaired LQOL. The majority of patients experienced disadvantages on a daily basis, highlighting the high burden of disease and treatment.

Relevance of healthcare-associated pneumonia for empirical antibiotic therapy in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

There is no consensus whether patients with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) should be considered as a patient with hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) and treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics, or as a patient with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and treated with narrow-spectrum antibiotics. HCAP research has focused mostly on the predictive value for non-susceptibility to broad-spectrum antibiotics and multi-drug resistant pathogens, in settings with moderate to high levels of antibiotic resistance. We investigated whether HCAP criteria predicts non-susceptibility to different empirical strategies, including narrow-spectrum antibiotics in the Dutch setting.

METHODS

In a post hoc analysis of patients with moderate-severe CAP in seven Dutch hospitals, we compared in vitro antibiotic susceptibilities of definite and possible causative pathogens of CAP and HCAP to amoxicillin and broader antibiotic regimens. In a sensitivity analysis, pathogens with missing susceptibilities were assumed susceptible (best-case scenario) or non-susceptible (worst-case scenario).

RESULTS

Among 2,283 patients with moderate-severe CAP, 23.1% (n = 527) were classified as HCAP. Non-susceptibility to amoxicillin ranged from 11.3% (95% CI 9.9-12.8%; best-case) to 14.4% (95% CI 12.8-16.1%; worst-case) in CAP patients and from 16.7% (95% CI 13.8-20.1%; best-case) to 19.7% (95% CI 16.6-23.3%; worst-case) in HCAP patients. The largest reduction in non-susceptibility was achieved by adding ciprofloxacin to amoxicillin treatment in both CAP patients (10% absolute risk reduction) and HCAP patients (11-16% reduction).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Netherlands, HCAP criteria predict higher amoxicillin non-susceptibility in patients hospitalized with moderate-severe CAP. Although broadening the antibiotic spectrum of empiric treatment reduced the likelihood of non-susceptibility, absolute reductions of non-susceptibility in HCAP patients were too low to justify the universal use of broad-spectrum empirical therapy.No abstract available.

Syndromic sample-to-result PCR testing for respiratory infections in adult patients

BACKGROUND

Syndromic sample-to-result (SS2R) poly merase chain reaction (PCR) can rapidly identify causative pathogens of respiratory tract infections (RTI). We evaluated diagnostic accuracy and applicability of one of the current SS2R diagnostics, the FilmArray® Respiratory Viral Panel.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study among adults presenting with symptoms of RTI at the Emergency Department of the University Medical Centre Utrecht (the Netherlands) during the 2016-2017 viral respiratory season. Clinical data were collected. We compared SS2R results on nasopharyngeal swabs to conventional real time PCR, calculated turnaround times (TAT) and explored implementation barriers using questionnaires.

RESULTS

62 Patients were included (64.5 yr [interquartile range (IQR) 44.3-75.0]). SS2R sensitivity was 82.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67.9-92.9] and specificity was 95.2% [95% CI 76.2-99.9] for detection of all present viruses (n = 60). Kappa agreement (0.73 [95% CI 0.56-0.90]) was good (p = 0.000). Median SS2R TAT was 2:06 hours [IQR 1:45-3:17] compared to 32:00 hours [IQR 26:50-40:42] of conventional PCR (n = 49, p = 0.000). Ease-of-use and fast TAT were unanimously reported as benefits, and low test capacity with a single SS2R system as drawback.

CONCLUSION

SS2R testing for respiratory viruses offers a rapid and reliable diagnostic method which has great potential for more efficient and targeted management in adult patients with RTI.

Exposure to Coxiella burnetii and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a retrospective population-based analysis in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

An association between Coxiella burnetii and non-Hodgkin lymphoma has been suggested. After a large Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands (2007-10), we postulated that the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma would be increased during and after the epidemic in areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with those with low endemicity.

METHODS

We did a retrospective population-based analysis and calculated relative risks (RRs) of non-Hodgkin lymphoma during 1-year periods before, during, and after the Q fever epidemic, for areas with intermediate and high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas. We also calculated the RR of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in people with chronic Q fever compared with the general population.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2002, and Dec 31, 2013, 48 760 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma were diagnosed. The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranged from 21·4 per 100 000 per year in 2002 to 26·7 per 100 000 per year in 2010. A significant association with non-Hodgkin lymphoma was noted in 2009 for areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas (RR 1·16, 95% CI 1·02-1·33; p=0·029); no further associations were noted in any other year or for areas with intermediate Q fever endemicity. Among 439 individuals with chronic Q fever, five developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma, yielding a crude absolute risk of 301·0 cases per 100 000 per year (RR 4·99, 95% CI 2·07-11·98; p=0·0003) compared with the general population in the Netherlands.

INTERPRETATION

These findings do not support the hypothesis that Q fever has a relevant causal role in the development of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Several limitations, inherent to the design of this study, might lead to both underestimation and overestimation of the studied association.

FUNDING

Foundation Q-support and Institut Mérieux.

Case report: Coxiella burnetii vascular infection and lymphoma in the Netherlands

Objectives and design

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma has been linked to infection with Coxiella burnetii, potentially through overproduction of IL-10 during infection with C. burnetii.

Materials and methods

Description of a case report.

Results

We describe a patient with retroperitoneal non-Hodgkin lymphoma and vascular infection with C. burnetii. Immunofluorescence staining and fluorescence in situ hybridization targeting specific C. burnetii 16S rRNA were performed on the retroperitoneal lymphoma tissue sample obtained at diagnosis of NHL. Both were strongly positive for the presence of C. burnetii.

Conclusions

This case provokes questions regarding a potential association between C. burnetii and NHL, and underlines the importance of further exploration of this association.