Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Seasonal dynamics of the wild rodent faecal virome

Viral discovery studies in wild animals often rely on cross-sectional surveys at a single time point. As a result, our understanding of the temporal stability of wild animal viromes remains poorly resolved. While studies of single host-virus systems indicate that host and environmental factors influence seasonal virus transmission dynamics, comparable insights for whole viral communities in multiple hosts are lacking. Utilizing noninvasive faecal samples from a long-term wild rodent study, we characterized viral communities of three common European rodent species (Apodemus sylvaticus, A. flavicollis and Myodes glareolus) living in temperate woodland over a single year. Our findings indicate that a substantial fraction of the rodent virome is seasonally transient and associated with vertebrate or bacteria hosts. Further analyses of one of the most common virus families, Picornaviridae, show pronounced temporal changes in viral richness and evenness, which were associated with concurrent and up to ~3-month lags in host density, ambient temperature, rainfall and humidity, suggesting complex feedbacks from the host and environmental factors on virus transmission and shedding in seasonal habitats. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of understanding the seasonal dynamics of wild animal viromes in order to better predict and mitigate zoonotic risks.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.

H9N2 avian influenza virus dispersal along Bangladeshi poultry trading networks

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in Bangladesh's poultry population. The subtype affects poultry production and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Insufficient understanding of how the poultry trading network shapes the dissemination of avian influenza viruses has hindered the design of targeted interventions to reduce their spread. Here, we use phylodynamic analyses of haemagglutinin sequences to investigate the spatial spread and dispersal patterns of H9N2 viruses in Bangladesh's poultry population, focusing on its two largest cities (Dhaka and Chattogram) and their poultry production and distribution networks. Our analyses suggest that H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus lineage movement occurs relatively less frequently between Bangladesh's two largest cities than within each city. H9N2 viruses detected in single markets are often more closely related to viruses from other markets in the same city than to each other, consistent with close epidemiological connectivity between markets. Our analyses also suggest that H9N2 viruses may spread more frequently between chickens of the three most commonly sold types (sunali-a cross-bred of Fayoumi hen and Rhode Island Red cock, deshi-local indigenous, and exotic broiler) in Dhaka than in Chattogram. Overall, this study improves our understanding of how Bangladesh's poultry trading system impacts avian influenza virus spread and should contribute to the design of tailored surveillance that accommodates local heterogeneity in virus dispersal patterns.

Bidirectional Movement of Emerging H5N8 Avian Influenza Viruses Between Europe and Asia via Migratory Birds Since Early 2020

Migratory birds play a critical role in the rapid spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus clade 2.3.4.4 across Eurasia. Elucidating the timing and pattern of virus transmission is essential therefore for understanding the spatial dissemination of these viruses. In this study, we surveyed >27,000 wild birds in China, tracked the year-round migration patterns of 20 bird species across China since 2006, and generated new HPAI H5N8 virus genomic data. Using this new data set, we investigated the seasonal transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N8 viruses across Eurasia. We found that introductions of HPAI H5N8 viruses to different Eurasian regions were associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. Moreover, we report a backflow of HPAI H5N8 virus lineages from Europe to Asia, suggesting that Europe acts as both a source and a sink in the global HPAI virus transmission network.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

Discovery of a Novel Coronavirus in Swedish Bank Voles (Myodes glareolus)

The unprecedented pandemic COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with bats as original reservoirs, has once again highlighted the importance of exploring the interface of wildlife diseases and human health. In this study, we identified a novel Betacoronavirus from bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in Grimsö, Sweden, and this virus is designated as Grimso virus. Repeated detection over three years and an overall prevalence of 3.4% suggest that the virus commonly occurs in bank voles. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses indicate that the Grimso virus belongs to a highly divergent Embecovirus lineage predominantly associated with bank voles. Given that bank voles are one of the most common rodent species in Sweden and Europe, our findings indicate that Grimso virus might be circulating widely in bank voles and further point out the importance of sentinel surveillance of coronaviruses in wild small mammalian animals, especially in wild rodents.

Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India

Limited genomic sampling in many high-incidence countries has impeded studies of severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic epidemiology. Consequently, critical questions remain about the generation and global distribution of virus genetic diversity. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Gujarat, India, during the state’s first epidemic wave to shed light on spread of the virus in one of the regions hardest hit by the pandemic. By integrating case data and 434 whole-genome sequences sampled across 20 districts, we reconstructed the epidemic dynamics and spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Gujarat. Our findings indicate global and regional connectivity and population density were major drivers of the Gujarat outbreak. We detected >100 virus lineage introductions, most of which appear to be associated with international travel. Within Gujarat, virus dissemination occurred predominantly from densely populated regions to geographically proximate locations that had low population density, suggesting that urban centers contributed disproportionately to virus spread.

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald-Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2-4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases 1-3 . The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions 4,5 . Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter-regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta's invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases. The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter-regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta’s invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

Molecular epidemiology and pathogenicity of H5N1 and H9N2 avian influenza viruses in clinically affected chickens on farms in Bangladesh

Avian influenza virus (AIV) subtypes H5N1 and H9N2 co-circulate in poultry in Bangladesh, causing significant bird morbidity and mortality. Despite their importance to the poultry value chain, the role of farms in spreading and maintaining AIV infections remains poorly understood in most disease-endemic settings. To address this crucial gap in our knowledge, we conducted a cross-sectional study between 2017 and 2019 in the Chattogram Division of Bangladesh in clinically affected and dead chickens in farms with suspected AIV infection. Viral prevalence of each subtype was approximately 10% among farms for which veterinary advice was sought, indicating a high level of virus circulation in chicken farms despite the low number of reported outbreaks. The level of co-circulation of both subtypes on farms was high, with our study suggesting that in the field, the co-circulation of H5N1 and H9N2 can modulate disease severity, which could facilitate an underestimated level of AIV transmission in the poultry value chain. Finally, using newly generated whole-genome sequences, we investigate the evolutionary history of a small subset of H5N1 and H9N2 viruses. Our analyses revealed that for both subtypes, the sampled viruses were genetically most closely related to other viruses isolated in Bangladesh and represented multiple independent incursions. However, due to lack of longitudinal surveillance in this region, it is difficult to ascertain whether these viruses emerged from endemic strains circulating in Bangladesh or from neighbouring countries. We also show that amino acids at putative antigenic residues underwent a distinct replacement during 2012 which coincides with the use of H5N1 vaccines.

Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK

The United Kingdom's COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world's largest and was unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. We determined the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country's first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantified the size, spatiotemporal origins, and persistence of genetically distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, whereas lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong Province, China

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, China's most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA-positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China, we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain because of low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size, and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the province's large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required, because the number of cases imported from other countries has increased.

Vulnerabilities in coronavirus glycan shields despite extensive glycosylation

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses (CoVs) are zoonotic pathogens with high fatality rates and pandemic potential. Vaccine development focuses on the principal target of the neutralizing humoral immune response, the spike (S) glycoprotein. Coronavirus S proteins are extensively glycosylated, encoding around 66-87 N-linked glycosylation sites per trimeric spike. Here, we reveal a specific area of high glycan density on MERS S that results in the formation of oligomannose-type glycan clusters, which were absent on SARS and HKU1 CoVs. We provide a comparison of the global glycan density of coronavirus spikes with other viral proteins including HIV-1 envelope, Lassa virus glycoprotein complex, and influenza hemagglutinin, where glycosylation plays a known role in shielding immunogenic epitopes. Overall, our data reveal how organisation of glycosylation across class I viral fusion proteins influence not only individual glycan compositions but also the immunological pressure across the protein surface.

High-Resolution Evolutionary Analysis of Within-Host Hepatitis C Virus Infection

BACKGROUND

Despite recent breakthroughs in treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we have limited understanding of how virus diversity generated within individuals impacts the evolution and spread of HCV variants at the population scale. Addressing this gap is important for identifying the main sources of disease transmission and evaluating the risk of drug-resistance mutations emerging and disseminating in a population.

METHODS

We have undertaken a high-resolution analysis of HCV within-host evolution from 4 individuals coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1). We used long-read, deep-sequenced data of full-length HCV envelope glycoprotein, longitudinally sampled from acute to chronic HCV infection to investigate the underlying viral population and evolutionary dynamics.

RESULTS

We found statistical support for population structure maintaining the within-host HCV genetic diversity in 3 out of 4 individuals. We also report the first population genetic estimate of the within-host recombination rate for HCV (0.28 × 10-7 recombination/site/year), which is considerably lower than that estimated for HIV-1 and the overall nucleotide substitution rate estimated during HCV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that population structure and strong genetic linkage shapes within-host HCV evolutionary dynamics. These results will guide the future investigation of potential HCV drug resistance adaptation during infection, and at the population scale.

A Protective Monoclonal Antibody Targets a Site of Vulnerability on the Surface of Rift Valley Fever Virus

The Gn subcomponent of the Gn-Gc assembly that envelopes the human and animal pathogen, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), is a primary target of the neutralizing antibody response. To better understand the molecular basis for immune recognition, we raised a class of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nAbs) against RVFV Gn, which exhibited protective efficacy in a mouse infection model. Structural characterization revealed that these nAbs were directed to the membrane-distal domain of RVFV Gn and likely prevented virus entry into a host cell by blocking fusogenic rearrangements of the Gn-Gc lattice. Genome sequence analysis confirmed that this region of the RVFV Gn-Gc assembly was under selective pressure and constituted a site of vulnerability on the virion surface. These data provide a blueprint for the rational design of immunotherapeutics and vaccines capable of preventing RVFV infection and a model for understanding Ab-mediated neutralization of bunyaviruses more generally.

Molecular Evolution, Diversity, and Adaptation of Influenza A(H7N9) Viruses in China

The substantial increase in prevalence and emergence of antigenically divergent or highly pathogenic influenza A(H7N9) viruses during 2016–17 raises concerns about the epizootic potential of these viruses. We investigated the evolution and adaptation of H7N9 viruses by analyzing available data and newly generated virus sequences isolated in Guangdong Province, China, during 2015–2017. Phylogenetic analyses showed that circulating H7N9 viruses belong to distinct lineages with differing spatial distributions. Hemagglutination inhibition assays performed on serum samples from patients infected with these viruses identified 3 antigenic clusters for 16 strains of different virus lineages. We used ancestral sequence reconstruction to identify parallel amino acid changes on multiple separate lineages. We inferred that mutations in hemagglutinin occur primarily at sites involved in receptor recognition or antigenicity. Our results indicate that highly pathogenic strains likely emerged from viruses circulating in eastern Guangdong Province during March 2016 and are associated with a high rate of adaptive molecular evolution.

Link between the numbers of particles and variants founding new HIV-1 infections depends on the timing of transmission

Understanding which HIV-1 variants are most likely to be transmitted is important for vaccine design and predicting virus evolution. Since most infections are founded by single variants, it has been suggested that selection at transmission has a key role in governing which variants are transmitted. We show that the composition of the viral population within the donor at the time of transmission is also important. To support this argument, we developed a probabilistic model describing HIV-1 transmission in an untreated population, and parameterised the model using both within-host next generation sequencing data and population-level epidemiological data on heterosexual transmission. The most basic HIV-1 transmission models cannot explain simultaneously the low probability of transmission and the non-negligible proportion of infections founded by multiple variants. In our model, transmission can only occur when environmental conditions are appropriate (e.g. abrasions are present in the genital tract of the potential recipient), allowing these observations to be reconciled. As well as reproducing features of transmission in real populations, our model demonstrates that, contrary to expectation, there is not a simple link between the number of viral variants and the number of viral particles founding each new infection. These quantities depend on the timing of transmission, and infections can be founded with small numbers of variants yet large numbers of particles. Including selection, or a bias towards early transmission (e.g. due to treatment), acts to enhance this conclusion. In addition, we find that infections initiated by multiple variants are most likely to have derived from donors with intermediate set-point viral loads, and not from individuals with high set-point viral loads as might be expected. We therefore emphasise the importance of considering viral diversity in donors, and the timings of transmissions, when trying to discern the complex factors governing single or multiple variant transmission.

Where do all the subtypes go? Temporal dynamics of H8-H12 influenza A viruses in waterfowl

Influenza A virus (IAV) is ubiquitous in waterfowl. In the northern hemisphere IAV prevalence is highest during the autumn and coincides with a peak in viral subtype diversity. Although haemagglutinin subtypes H1-H12 are associated with waterfowl hosts, subtypes H8-H12 are detected very infrequently. To better understand the role of waterfowl in the maintenance of these rare subtypes, we sequenced H8-H12 viruses isolated from Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from 2002 to 2009. These rare viruses exhibited varying ecological and phylodynamic features. The Eurasian clades of H8 and H12 phylogenies were dominated by waterfowl sequences; mostly viruses sequenced in this study. H11, once believed to be a subtype that infected charadriiformes (shorebirds), exhibited patterns more typical of common virus subtypes. Finally, subtypes H9 and H10, which have maintained lineages in poultry, showed markedly different patterns: H10 was associated with all possible NA subtypes and this drove HA lineage diversity within years. Rare viruses belonging to subtypes H8-H12 were highly reassorted, indicating that these rare subtypes are part of the broader IAV pool. Our results suggest that waterfowl play a role in the maintenance of these rare subtypes, but we recommend additional sampling of non-traditional hosts to better understand the reservoirs of these rare viruses.

Structure of the Lassa virus glycan shield provides a model for immunological resistance

Lassa virus is an Old World arenavirus endemic to West Africa that causes severe hemorrhagic fever. Vaccine development has focused on the envelope glycoprotein complex (GPC) that extends from the virion envelope. The often inadequate antibody immune response elicited by both vaccine and natural infection has been, in part, attributed to the abundance of N-linked glycosylation on the GPC. Here, using a virus-like-particle system that presents Lassa virus GPC in a native-like context, we determine the composite population of each of the N-linked glycosylation sites presented on the trimeric GPC spike. Our analysis reveals the presence of underprocessed oligomannose-type glycans, which form punctuated clusters that obscure the proteinous surface of both the GP1 attachment and GP2 fusion glycoprotein subunits of the Lassa virus GPC. These oligomannose clusters are seemingly derived as a result of sterically reduced accessibility to glycan processing enzymes, and limited amino acid diversification around these sites supports their role protecting against the humoral immune response. Combined, our data provide a structure-based blueprint for understanding how glycans render the glycoprotein spikes of Lassa virus and other Old World arenaviruses immunologically resistant targets.

Evolution of HIV-1 within untreated individuals and at the population scale in Uganda

HIV-1 undergoes multiple rounds of error-prone replication between transmission events, resulting in diverse viral populations within and among individuals. In addition, the virus experiences different selective pressures at multiple levels: during the course of infection, at transmission, and among individuals. Disentangling how these evolutionary forces shape the evolution of the virus at the population scale is important for understanding pathogenesis, how drug- and immune-escape variants are likely to spread in populations, and the development of preventive vaccines. To address this, we deep-sequenced two regions of the HIV-1 genome (p24 and gp41) from 34 longitudinally-sampled untreated individuals from Rakai District in Uganda, infected with subtypes A, D, and inter-subtype recombinants. This dataset substantially increases the availability of HIV-1 sequence data that spans multiple years of untreated infection, in particular for different geographical regions and viral subtypes. In line with previous studies, we estimated an approximately five-fold faster rate of evolution at the within-host compared to the population scale for both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions, and for all subtypes. We determined the extent to which this mismatch in evolutionary rates can be explained by the evolution of the virus towards population-level consensus, or the transmission of viruses similar to those that establish infection within individuals. Our findings indicate that both processes are likely to be important.

Effect of Live Poultry Market Interventions on Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, Guangdong, China

Since March 2013, three waves of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been detected in China. To investigate virus transmission within and across epidemic waves, we used surveillance data and whole-genome analysis of viruses sampled in Guangdong during 2013-2015. We observed a geographic shift of human A(H7N9) infections from the second to the third waves. Live poultry market interventions were undertaken in epicenter cities; however, spatial phylogenetic analysis indicated that the third-wave outbreaks in central Guangdong most likely resulted from local virus persistence rather than introduction from elsewhere. Although the number of clinical cases in humans declined by 35% from the second to the third waves, the genetic diversity of third-wave viruses in Guangdong increased. Our results highlight the epidemic risk to a region reporting comparatively few A(H7N9) cases. Moreover, our results suggest that live-poultry market interventions cannot completely halt A(H7N9) virus persistence and dissemination.

Drug use and phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus infection among people who use drugs in Vancouver, Canada: A latent class analysis approach

This study estimated latent classes (ie, unobserved subgroups in a population) of people who use drugs in Vancouver, Canada, and examined how these classes relate to phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. HCV antibody-positive people who use drugs from two cohorts in Vancouver, Canada (1996-2012), with a Core-E2 sequence were included. Time-stamped phylogenetic trees were inferred, and phylogenetic clustering was determined by time to most common recent ancestor. Latent classes were estimated, and the association with the phylogenetic clustering outcome was assessed using an inclusive classify/analyse approach. Among 699 HCV RNA-positive participants (26% female, 24% HIV+), recent drug use included injecting cocaine (80%), injecting heroin (70%), injecting cocaine/heroin (ie, speedball, 38%) and crack cocaine smoking (28%). Latent class analysis identified four distinct subgroups of drug use typologies: (i) cocaine injecting, (ii) opioid and cocaine injecting, (iii) crack cocaine smoking and (iv) heroin injecting and currently receiving opioid substitution therapy. After adjusting for age and HIV infection, compared to the group defined by heroin injecting and currently receiving opioid substitution therapy, the odds of phylogenetic cluster membership was greater in the cocaine injecting group (adjusted OR [aOR]: 3.06; 95% CI: 1.73, 5.42) and lower in the crack cocaine smoking group (aOR: 0.06; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.48). Combining latent class and phylogenetic clustering analyses provides novel insights into the complex dynamics of HCV transmission. Incorporating differing risk profiles associated with drug use may provide opportunities to further optimize and target HCV treatment and prevention strategies.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

Selection on non-antigenic gene segments of seasonal influenza A virus and its impact on adaptive evolution

Most studies on seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus adaptation have focused on the main antigenic gene, hemagglutinin. However, there is increasing evidence that the genome-wide genetic background of novel antigenic variants can influence these variants’ emergence probabilities and impact their patterns of dominance in the population. This suggests that non-antigenic genes may be important in shaping the viral evolutionary dynamics. To better understand the role of selection on non-antigenic genes in the adaptive evolution of seasonal influenza viruses, we have developed a simple population genetic model that considers a virus with one antigenic and one non-antigenic gene segment. By simulating this model under different regimes of selection and reassortment, we find that the empirical patterns of lineage turnover for the antigenic and non-antigenic gene segments are best captured when there is both limited viral coinfection and selection operating on both gene segments. In contrast, under a scenario of only neutral evolution in the non-antigenic gene segment, we see persistence of multiple lineages for long periods of time in that segment, which is not compatible with observed molecular evolutionary patterns. Further, we find that reassortment, occurring in coinfected individuals, can increase the speed of viral adaptive evolution by primarily reducing selective interference and genetic linkage effects. Together, these findings suggest that, for influenza, with six internal or non-antigenic gene segments, the evolutionary dynamics of novel antigenic variants are likely to be influenced by the genome-wide genetic background as a result of linked selection among both beneficial and deleterious mutations.

Role of HIV-specific CD8+ T cells in pediatric HIV cure strategies after widespread early viral escape

Recent studies have suggested greater HIV cure potential among infected children than adults. A major obstacle to HIV eradication in adults is that the viral reservoir is largely comprised of HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) escape variants. We here evaluate the potential for CTL in HIV-infected slow-progressor children to play an effective role in "shock-and-kill" cure strategies. Two distinct subgroups of children were identified on the basis of viral load. Unexpectedly, in both groups, as in adults, HIV-specific CTL drove the selection of escape variants across a range of epitopes within the first weeks of infection. However, in HIV-infected children, but not adults, de novo autologous variant-specific CTL responses were generated, enabling the pediatric immune system to "corner" the virus. Thus, even when escape variants are selected in early infection, the capacity in children to generate variant-specific anti-HIV CTL responses maintains the potential for CTL to contribute to effective shock-and-kill cure strategies in pediatric HIV infection.

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil. Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 2016) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 2016). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease. However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.

Exceptional Heterogeneity in Viral Evolutionary Dynamics Characterises Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection

The treatment of HCV infection has seen significant progress, particularly since the approval of new direct-acting antiviral drugs. However these clinical achievements have been made despite an incomplete understanding of HCV replication and within-host evolution, especially compared with HIV-1. Here, we undertake a comprehensive analysis of HCV within-host evolution during chronic infection by investigating over 4000 viral sequences sampled longitudinally from 15 HCV-infected patients. We compare our HCV results to those from a well-studied HIV-1 cohort, revealing key differences in the evolutionary behaviour of these two chronic-infecting pathogens. Notably, we find an exceptional level of heterogeneity in the molecular evolution of HCV, both within and among infected individuals. Furthermore, these patterns are associated with the long-term maintenance of viral lineages within patients, which fluctuate in relative frequency in peripheral blood. Together, our findings demonstrate that HCV replication behavior is complex and likely comprises multiple viral subpopulations with distinct evolutionary dynamics. The presence of a structured viral population can explain apparent paradoxes in chronic HCV infection, such as rapid fluctuations in viral diversity and the reappearance of viral strains years after their initial detection.

Our knowledge of HCV within-host evolution is substantially limited, which is surprising given that highly successful therapies against the virus have been developed. Key aspects of HCV infection, such as rapid fluctuations in viral diversity and the reappearance of viral strains years after their initial detection, remain unexplained. To better understand this problem, we analyse viral sequences from HCV-infected patients sampled over several years. Our findings suggest that the replication dynamics during chronic HCV infection are distinct from those of HIV-1, and dominated by the co-circulation of multiple viral strains. Although a major difference between the two chronic-infecting viruses is the level of recombination, our results indicate that HCV within-host evolution is most likely to be shaped by a structured viral population. Crucially, our study shows that HCV sampled from blood does not fully represent the within-host viral population at that time. This may have important implications for HCV treatment, especially in patients that have seemingly cleared the virus, as well as for molecular epidemiology studies investigating HCV transmission.

Venue-Based Networks May Underpin HCV Transmissions amongst HIV-Infected Gay and Bisexual Men

Background

This study aimed to investigate the potential influence of venue-based networks on HCV transmission in HIV-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM).

Methods

This was a prospectively recruited cohort of HIV-infected GBM with recently-acquired HCV infection resident in Melbourne and Sydney. Clinical and demographic data were collected together with blood samples for HCV sequencing. Phylogenies were inferred and clusters of individuals infected with HCV with genetic sequence homology were identified. Venues used for sourcing sexual partners were identified; sourcing partners from the same venue was considered a potential social link. Using the Jaccard similarity coefficient, associations were identified between the network of sites where men sourced sex partners and transmission relationships as defined by phylogenetic clustering.

Results

Forty individuals were recruited, of whom 62.5% were considered to have sexually- and 37.5% IDU-acquired HCV. Venue use was consistent with men being members of a more sexually adventurous gay community subculture. Six phylogenetically-determined pairs or clusters were identified, comprising fifteen (15/28, 53.6%) individuals. Participants belonging to phylogenetic clusters were observed within the same networks. There was a significant correlation between the network and phylogenetic clustering when both cities were considered simultaneously (p = 0.005), raising the possibility that social connections may be important for HCV transmissions.

Conclusions

Venue-based network elicitation is a promising approach for elucidating HCV transmissions amongst HIV-infected GBM. Public health approaches targeting individuals and venues prominent within networks may reduce onward HCV transmission.

Transmission of hepatitis C virus infection among younger and older people who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Understanding HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is important for designing prevention strategies. This study investigated whether HCV infection among younger injectors occurs from few or many transmission events from older injectors to younger injectors among PWID in Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

HCV antibody positive participants at enrolment or follow-up (1996-2012) were tested for HCV RNA and sequenced (Core-E2). Time-stamped phylogenetic trees were inferred using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST). Association of age with phylogeny was tested using statistics implemented in the software Bayesian Tip Significance (BaTS) testing. Factors associated with clustering (maximum cluster age: five years) were identified using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 699 participants with HCV subtype 1a, 1b, 2b and 3a infection (26% female, 24% HIV+): 21% were younger (<27years), and 10% had recent HCV seroconversion. When inferred cluster age was limited to <5years, 15% (n=108) were in clusters/pairs. Although a moderate degree of segregation was observed between younger and older participants, there was also transmission between age groups. Younger age (<27 vs. >40, AOR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.54, 6.39), HIV (AOR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.22, 3.18) and subtype 3a (AOR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.33, 3.38) were independently associated with clustering.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population of PWID from Vancouver, HCV among young injectors was seeded from many transmission events between HCV-infected older and younger injectors. Phylogenetic clustering was associated with younger age and HIV. These data suggest that HCV transmission among PWID is complex, with transmission occurring between and among older and younger PWID.

The Evolution and Transmission of Epidemic GII.17 Noroviruses

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, the GII.4 norovirus genotype has predominated in epidemics worldwide and been associated with an increased rate of evolutionary change. In 2014, a novel GII.17 variant emerged and persisted, causing large outbreaks of gastroenteritis in China and sporadic infections globally. The origin, evolution, and transmission history of this new variant are largely unknown.

METHODS

We generated 103 full capsid and 8 whole-genome sequences of GII.17 strains collected between August 2013 and November 2015 in Guangdong, China. Phylogenetic analyses were performed by integrating our data with those for all publically available GII.17 sequences.

RESULTS

The novel emergent lineage GII.17_Kawasaki_2014 most likely originated from Africa around 2001 and evolved at a rate of 5.6 × 10(-3) substitutions/site/year. Within this lineage, a new variant containing several important amino acid changes emerged around August 2013 and caused extensive epidemics in 2014-2015. The phylodynamic and epidemic history of the GII.17_Kawasaki lineage shows similarities with the pattern observed for GII.4 norovirus evolution. Virus movements from Hong Kong to neighboring coastal cities were frequently observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide new insights into GII.17 norovirus evolution and transmission and highlight the potential for a rare norovirus genotype to rapidly replace existing strains and cause local epidemics.

A Molecular-Level Account of the Antigenic Hantaviral Surface

Hantaviruses, a geographically diverse group of zoonotic pathogens, initiate cell infection through the concerted action of Gn and Gc viral surface glycoproteins. Here, we describe the high-resolution crystal structure of the antigenic ectodomain of Gn from Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), a causative agent of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Fitting of PUUV Gn into an electron cryomicroscopy reconstruction of intact Gn-Gc spike complexes from the closely related but non-pathogenic Tula hantavirus localized Gn tetramers to the membrane-distal surface of the virion. The accuracy of the fitting was corroborated by epitope mapping and genetic analysis of available PUUV sequences. Interestingly, Gn exhibits greater non-synonymous sequence diversity than the less accessible Gc, supporting a role of the host humoral immune response in exerting selective pressure on the virus surface. The fold of PUUV Gn is likely to be widely conserved across hantaviruses.

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We describe the high-resolution crystal structure of a hantaviral Gn ectodomain

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Electron cryotomography analysis reveals the ultrastructure of Gn-Gc assembly

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X-ray fitting and mapping analysis reveals the antigenic hantavirus surface

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The Gn fold is likely to be widely conserved across this group of viruses

Faster Adaptation in Smaller Populations: Counterintuitive Evolution of HIV during Childhood Infection

Analysis of HIV-1 gene sequences sampled longitudinally from infected individuals can reveal the evolutionary dynamics that underlie associations between disease outcome and viral genetic diversity and divergence. Here we extend a statistical framework to estimate rates of viral molecular adaptation by considering sampling error when computing nucleotide site-frequencies. This is particularly beneficial when analyzing viral sequences from within-host viral infections if the number of sequences per time point is limited. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we apply our method to a cohort of 24 patients infected with HIV-1 at birth. Our approach finds that viral adaptation arising from recurrent positive natural selection is associated with the rate of HIV-1 disease progression, in contrast to previous analyses of these data that found no significant association. Most surprisingly, we discover a strong negative correlation between viral population size and the rate of viral adaptation, the opposite of that predicted by standard molecular evolutionary theory. We argue that this observation is most likely due to the existence of a confounding third variable, namely variation in selective pressure among hosts. A conceptual non-linear model of virus adaptation that incorporates the two opposing effects of host immunity on the virus population can explain this counterintuitive result.

Since some common approaches to the study of molecular adaptation may not be optimal for answering questions regarding within-host virus evolution, we have developed an alternative approach that estimates an absolute rate of molecular adaptation from serially-sampled viral populations. Here, we extend this framework to include sampling error when estimating the rate of adaptation, which is an important addition when analyzing historical data sets obtained in the pre-HAART era, for which the number of sequences per time point is often limited. We applied this extended method to a cohort of 24 pediatric HIV-1 patients and discovered that viral adaptation is strongly associated with the rate of disease progression, which is in contrast to previous analyses of these data that did not find a significant association. Strikingly, this results in a negative relationship between the rate of viral adaptation and viral population size, which is unexpected under standard micro-evolutionary models since larger populations are predicted to fix more mutations per unit time than smaller populations. Our findings indicate that the negative correlation is unlikely to be driven by relaxation of selective constraint, but instead by significant variation in host immune responses. Consequently, this supports a previously proposed non-linear model of viral adaptation in which host immunity imposes counteracting effects on population size and selection.

Phylogeography and epidemic history of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 in Africa

HCV genotype 4 is prevalent in many African countries, yet little is known about the genotype׳s epidemic history on the continent. We present a comprehensive study of the molecular epidemiology of genotype 4. To address the deficit of data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) we PCR amplified 60 new HCV isolates from the DRC, resulting in 33 core- and 48 NS5B-region sequences. Our data, together with genotype 4 database sequences, were analysed using Bayesian phylogenetic approaches. We find three well-supported intra-genotypic lineages and estimate that the genotype 4 common ancestor existed around 1733 (1650-1805). We show that genotype 4 originated in central Africa and that multiple lineages have been exported to north Africa since ~1850, including subtype 4a which dominates the epidemic in Egypt. We speculate on the causes of the historical intra-continental spread of genotype 4, including population movements during World War 2.

Endemic dengue associated with the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages and localized density-dependent transmission

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases of humans and has spread throughout much of the tropical and subtropical world. Despite this widespread dispersal, the determinants of dengue transmission in endemic populations are not well understood, although essential for virus control. To address this issue we performed a phylogeographic analysis of 751 complete genome sequences of dengue 1 virus (DENV-1) sampled from both rural (Dong Thap) and urban (Ho Chi Minh City) populations in southern Viet Nam during the period 2003-2008. We show that DENV-1 in Viet Nam exhibits strong spatial clustering, with likely importation from Cambodia on multiple occasions. Notably, multiple lineages of DENV-1 co-circulated in Ho Chi Minh City. That these lineages emerged at approximately the same time and dispersed over similar spatial regions suggests that they are of broadly equivalent fitness. We also observed an important relationship between the density of the human host population and the dispersion rate of dengue, such that DENV-1 tends to move from urban to rural populations, and that densely populated regions within Ho Chi Minh City act as major transmission foci. Despite these fluid dynamics, the dispersion rates of DENV-1 are relatively low, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City where the virus moves less than an average of 20 km/year. These low rates suggest a major role for mosquito-mediated dispersal, such that DENV-1 does not need to move great distances to infect a new host when there are abundant susceptibles, and imply that control measures should be directed toward the most densely populated urban environments.

Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic

In March and early April 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) emerged in Mexico and the United States. During the first few weeks of surveillance, the virus spread worldwide to 30 countries (as of May 11) by human-to-human transmission, causing the World Health Organization to raise its pandemic alert to level 5 of 6. This virus has the potential to develop into the first influenza pandemic of the twenty-first century. Here we use evolutionary analysis to estimate the timescale of the origins and the early development of the S-OIV epidemic. We show that it was derived from several viruses circulating in swine, and that the initial transmission to humans occurred several months before recognition of the outbreak. A phylogenetic estimate of the gaps in genetic surveillance indicates a long period of unsampled ancestry before the S-OIV outbreak, suggesting that the reassortment of swine lineages may have occurred years before emergence in humans, and that the multiple genetic ancestry of S-OIV is not indicative of an artificial origin. Furthermore, the unsampled history of the epidemic means that the nature and location of the genetically closest swine viruses reveal little about the immediate origin of the epidemic, despite the fact that we included a panel of closely related and previously unpublished swine influenza isolates. Our results highlight the need for systematic surveillance of influenza in swine, and provide evidence that the mixing of new genetic elements in swine can result in the emergence of viruses with pandemic potential in humans.