A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of interindividual variability. We identified 6 distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate, and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1,510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection as well as by an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during Omicron infection, following vaccination, and following reinfection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

Two-way pharmacodynamic modeling of drug combinations and its application to pairs of repurposed Ebola and SARS-CoV-2 agents

Existing pharmacodynamic (PD) mathematical models for drug combinations discriminate antagonistic, additive, multiplicative, and synergistic effects, but fail to consider how concentration-dependent drug interaction effects may vary across an entire dose-response matrix. We developed a two-way pharmacodynamic (TWPD) model to capture the PD of two-drug combinations. TWPD captures interactions between upstream and downstream drugs that act on different stages of viral replication, by quantifying upstream drug efficacy and concentration-dependent effects on downstream drug pharmacodynamic parameters. We applied TWPD to previously published in vitro drug matrixes for repurposed potential anti-Ebola and anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug pairs. Depending on the drug pairing, the model recapitulated combined efficacies as or more accurately than existing models and can be used to infer efficacy at untested drug concentrations. TWPD fits the data slightly better in one direction for all drug pairs, meaning that we can tentatively infer the upstream drug. Based on its high accuracy, TWPD could be used in concert with PK models to estimate the therapeutic effects of drug pairs in vivo.

Mild HIV-specific selective forces overlaying natural CD4+ T cell dynamics explain the clonality and decay dynamics of HIV reservoir cells

The latent reservoir of HIV persists for decades in people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). To determine if persistence arises from the natural dynamics of memory CD4+ T cells harboring HIV, we compared the clonal dynamics of HIV proviruses to that of memory CD4+ T cell receptors (TCRβ) from the same PWH and from HIV-seronegative people. We show that clonal dominance of HIV proviruses and antigen-specific CD4+ T cells are similar but that the field's understanding of the persistence of the less clonally dominant reservoir is significantly limited by undersampling. We demonstrate that increasing reservoir clonality over time and differential decay of intact and defective proviruses cannot be explained by mCD4+ T cell kinetics alone. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of TCRβ and proviruses that recapitulates experimental observations and suggests that HIV-specific negative selection mediates approximately 6% of intact and 2% of defective proviral clearance. Thus, HIV persistence is mostly, but not entirely, driven by natural mCD4+ T cell kinetics.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

homeRNA self-blood collection enables high-frequency temporal profiling of pre-symptomatic host immune kinetics to respiratory viral infection: a prospective cohort study

Background

Early host immunity to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is heterogenous, dynamic, and critical to an individual's infection outcome. Due to limitations in sampling frequency/timepoints, kinetics of early immune dynamics in natural human infections remain poorly understood. In this nationwide prospective cohort study, we leveraged a self-blood collection tool (homeRNA) to profile detailed kinetics of the pre-symptomatic to convalescence host immunity to contemporaneous respiratory pathogens.

Methods

We enrolled non-symptomatic adults with recent exposure to ARIs who subsequently tested negative (exposed-uninfected) or positive for respiratory pathogens. Participants self-collected blood and nasal swabs daily for seven consecutive days followed by weekly blood collection for up to seven additional weeks. Symptom burden was assessed during each collection. Nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and common respiratory pathogens. 92 longitudinal blood samples spanning the pre-shedding to post-acute phase of eight SARS-CoV-2-infected participants and 40 interval-matched samples from four exposed-uninfected participants were subjected to high-frequency longitudinal profiling of 773 host immune genes.

Findings

Between June 2021 - April 2022, 68 participants across 26 U.S. states completed the study and self-collected a total of 691 and 466 longitudinal blood and nasal swab samples along with 688 symptom surveys. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 17 out of 22 individuals with study-confirmed respiratory infection. With rapid dissemination of home self-collection kits, two and four COVID-19+ participants started collection prior to viral shedding and symptom onset, respectively, enabling us to profile detailed expression kinetics of the earliest blood transcriptional response to contemporaneous variants of concern. In pre-shedding samples, we observed transient but robust expression of T-cell response signatures, transcription factor complexes, prostaglandin biosynthesis genes, pyrogenic cytokines, and cytotoxic granule genes. This is followed by a rapid induction of many interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs), concurrent to onset of viral shedding and increase in nasal viral load. Finally, we observed increased expression of host defense peptides (HDPs) in exposed-uninfected individuals over the 4-week observational window.

Interpretation

We demonstrated that unsupervised self-collection and stabilization of capillary blood can be applied to natural infection studies to characterize detailed early host immune kinetics at a temporal resolution comparable to that of human challenge studies. The remote (decentralized) study framework enables conduct of large-scale population-wide longitudinal mechanistic studies. Expression of cytotoxic/T-cell signatures in pre-shedding samples preceding expansion of innate ISGs suggests a potential role for T-cell mediated pathogen control during early infection. Elevated expression of HDPs in exposed-uninfected individuals warrants further validation studies to assess their potential role in protective immunity during pathogen exposure.

Funding

This study was funded by R35GM128648 to ABT for in-lab developments of homeRNA, Packard Fellowship from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation to ABT, and R01AI153087 to AW.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Estimating the contribution of CD4 T cell subset proliferation and differentiation to HIV persistence

Persistence of HIV in people living with HIV (PWH) on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to physiological mechanisms of CD4+ T cells. Here, in the same 37 male PWH on ART we measure longitudinal kinetics of HIV DNA and cell turnover rates in five CD4 cell subsets: naïve (TN), stem-cell- (TSCM), central- (TCM), transitional- (TTM), and effector-memory (TEM). HIV decreases in TTM and TEM but not in less-differentiated subsets. Cell turnover is ~10 times faster than HIV clearance in memory subsets, implying that cellular proliferation consistently creates HIV DNA. The optimal mathematical model for these integrated data sets posits HIV DNA also passages between CD4 cell subsets via cellular differentiation. Estimates are heterogeneous, but in an average participant's year ~10 (in TN and TSCM) and ~104 (in TCM, TTM, TEM) proviruses are generated by proliferation while ~103 proviruses passage via cell differentiation (per million CD4). In simulations, therapies blocking proliferation and/or enhancing differentiation could reduce HIV DNA by 1-2 logs over 3 years. In summary, HIV exploits cellular proliferation and differentiation to persist during ART but clears faster in more proliferative/differentiated CD4 cell subsets and the same physiological mechanisms sustaining HIV might be temporarily modified to reduce it.

Recurrent infection transiently expands human tissue T cells while maintaining long-term homeostasis

Chronic viral infections are known to lead to T cell exhaustion or dysfunction. However, it remains unclear if antigen exposure episodes from periodic viral reactivation, such as herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) recrudescence, are sufficient to induce T cell dysfunction, particularly in the context of a tissue-specific localized, rather than a systemic, infection. We designed and implemented a stringent clinical surveillance protocol to longitudinally track both viral shedding and in situ tissue immune responses in a cohort of HSV+ volunteers that agreed to avoid using anti-viral therapy for the course of this study. Comparing lesion to control skin biopsies, we found that tissue T cells expanded immediately after reactivation, and then returned numerically and phenotypically to steady state. T cell responses appeared to be driven at least in part by migration of circulating T cells to the infected tissue. Our data indicate that tissue T cells are stably maintained in response to HSV reactivation, resembling a series of acute recall responses.

The STOP COVID 2 Study: Fluvoxamine vs Placebo for Outpatients With Symptomatic COVID-19, a Fully Remote Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Prior randomized clinical trials have reported benefit of fluvoxamine ≥200 mg/d vs placebo for patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Methods

This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, fully remote multisite clinical trial evaluated whether fluvoxamine prevents clinical deterioration in higher-risk outpatients with acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Between December 2020 and May 2021, nonhospitalized US and Canadian participants with confirmed symptomatic infection received fluvoxamine (50 mg on day 1, 100 mg twice daily thereafter) or placebo for 15 days. The primary modified intent-to-treat (mITT) population included participants who started the intervention within 7 days of symptom onset with a baseline oxygen saturation ≥92%. The primary outcome was clinical deterioration within 15 days of randomization, defined as having both (1) shortness of breath (severity ≥4 on a 0-10 scale or requiring hospitalization) and (2) oxygen saturation <92% on room air or need for supplemental oxygen.

Results

A total of 547 participants were randomized and met mITT criteria (n = 272 fluvoxamine, n = 275 placebo). The Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended stopping early for futility related to lower-than-predicted event rates and declining accrual concurrent with vaccine availability in the United States and Canada. Clinical deterioration occurred in 13 (4.8%) participants in the fluvoxamine group and 15 (5.5%) participants in the placebo group (absolute difference at day 15, 0.68%; 95% CI, -3.0% to 4.4%; log-rank P = .91).

Conclusions

This trial did not find fluvoxamine efficacious in preventing clinical deterioration in unvaccinated outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. It was stopped early and underpowered due to low primary outcome rates.

Clinical Trials Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04668950.

Impact of misclassified defective proviruses on HIV reservoir measurements

Most proviruses persisting in people living with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are defective. However, rarer intact proviruses almost always reinitiate viral rebound if ART stops. Therefore, assessing therapies to prevent viral rebound hinges on specifically quantifying intact proviruses. We evaluated the same samples from 10 male PWH on ART using the two-probe intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) and near full length (nfl) Q4PCR. Both assays admitted similar ratios of intact to total HIV DNA, but IPDA found ~40-fold more intact proviruses. Neither assay suggested defective proviruses decay over 10 years. However, the mean intact half-lives were different: 108 months for IPDA and 65 months for Q4PCR. To reconcile this difference, we modeled additional longitudinal IPDA data and showed that decelerating intact decay could arise from very long-lived intact proviruses and/or misclassified defective proviruses: slowly decaying defective proviruses that are intact in IPDA probe locations (estimated up to 5%, in agreement with sequence library based predictions). The model also demonstrates how misclassification can lead to underestimated efficacy of therapies that exclusively reduce intact proviruses. We conclude that sensitive multi-probe assays combined with specific nfl-verified assays would be optimal to document absolute and changing levels of intact HIV proviruses.

Stochastic fate decisions of HSCs after transplantation: early contribution, symmetric expansion, and pool formation

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are assumed to be rare, infrequently dividing, long-lived cells not involved in immediate recovery after transplantation. Here, we performed unprecedented high-density clonal tracking in nonhuman primates and found long-term persisting HSC clones to actively contribute during early neutrophil recovery, and to be the main source of blood production as early as 50 days after transplantation. Most surprisingly, we observed a rapid decline in the number of unique HSC clones, while persisting HSCs expanded, undergoing symmetric divisions to create identical siblings and formed clonal pools ex vivo as well as in vivo. In contrast to the currently assumed model of hematopoietic reconstitution, we provide evidence for contribution of HSCs in short-term recovery as well as symmetric expansion of individual clones into pools. These findings provide novel insights into HSC biology, informing the design of HSC transplantation and gene therapy studies.

Successful Treatment of Persistent Symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 19 Infection With Extended-Duration Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Among Outpatients With Hematologic Cancer

Persistent symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a distinct clinical entity among patients with hematologic cancer and/or profound immunosuppression. The optimal medical management is unknown. We describe 2 patients who had symptomatic COVID-19 for almost 6 months and were successfully treated in the ambulatory setting with extended courses of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir.

Consistent Effects of Early Remdesivir on Symptoms and Disease Progression Across At-Risk Outpatient Subgroups: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in PINETREE Study

INTRODUCTION

In the PINETREE study, early remdesivir treatment reduced risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalizations or all-cause death versus placebo by 87% by day 28 in high-risk, non-hospitalized patients. Here we report results of assessment of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) of early outpatient remdesivir, focusing on time from symptom onset and number of baseline risk factors (RFs).

METHODS

PINETREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who were randomized within 7 days of symptom onset and had ≥ 1 RF for disease progression (age ≥ 60 years, obesity [body mass index ≥ 30], or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients received remdesivir intravenously (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo.

RESULTS

In this subgroup analysis, HTE of remdesivir by time from symptom onset at treatment initiation and number of baseline RFs was not detected. Treatment with remdesivir reduced COVID-19-related hospitalizations independent of stratification by time from symptom onset to randomization. Of patients enrolled ≤ 5 days from symptom onset, 1/201 (0.5%) receiving remdesivir and 9/194 (4.6%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (hazard ratio [HR] 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.82). Of those enrolled at > 5 days from symptom onset, 1/78 (1.3%) receiving remdesivir and 6/89 (6.7%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.19; 95% CI 0.02-1.61). Remdesivir was also effective in reducing COVID-19-related hospitalizations when stratified by number of baseline RFs for severe disease. Of patients with ≤ 2 RFs, 0/159 (0.0%) receiving remdesivir and 4/164 (2.4%) receiving placebo were hospitalized; of those with ≥ 3 RFs, 2/120 (1.7%) receiving remdesivir and 11/119 (9.2%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.16; 95% CI 0.04-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In the outpatient setting, benefit of remdesivir initiated within 7 days of symptoms appeared to be consistent across patients with RFs. Therefore, it may be reasonable to broadly treat patients with remdesivir regardless of comorbidities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04501952.

Memory T cells possess an innate-like function in local protection from mucosal infection

Mucosal infections pose a significant global health burden. Antigen-specific tissue resident T cells are critical to maintaining barrier immunity. Previous studies in the context of systemic infection suggest that memory CD8 T cells may also provide innate-like protection against antigenically unrelated pathogens independent of TCR engagement. Whether "bystander T cell activation" is also an important defense mechanism in the mucosa is poorly understood. Here, we investigated if innate-like memory CD8 T cells could protect against a model mucosal virus infection, herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2). We found that immunization with an irrelevant antigen delayed disease progression from lethal HSV-2 challenge, suggesting that memory CD8 T cells may mediate protection despite the lack of antigen-specificity. Upon HSV-2 infection, we observed an early infiltration, rather than substantial local proliferation, of antigen-non-specific CD8 T cells, which became bystander-activated only within the infected mucosal tissue. Critically, we show that bystander-activated CD8 T cells are sufficient to reduce early viral burden after HSV-2 infection. Finally, local cytokine cues within the tissue microenvironment after infection were sufficient for bystander activation of mucosal tissue memory CD8 T cells from mice and humans. Altogether, our findings suggest that local bystander-activation of CD8 memory T cells contribute a fast and effective innate-like response to infection in mucosal tissue.

Longitudinal home self-collection of capillary blood using homeRNA correlates interferon and innate viral defense pathways with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance

Blood transcriptional profiling is a powerful tool to evaluate immune responses to infection; however, blood collection via traditional phlebotomy remains a barrier to precise characterization of the immune response in dynamic infections (e.g., respiratory viruses). Here we present an at-home self-collection methodology, homeRNA, to study the host transcriptional response during acute SARS-CoV-2 infections. This method uniquely enables high frequency measurement of the host immune kinetics in non-hospitalized adults during the acute and most dynamic stage of their infection. COVID-19+ and healthy participants self-collected blood every other day for two weeks with daily nasal swabs and symptom surveys to track viral load kinetics and symptom burden, respectively. While healthy uninfected participants showed remarkably stable immune kinetics with no significant dynamic genes, COVID-19+ participants, on the contrary, depicted a robust response with over 418 dynamic genes associated with interferon and innate viral defense pathways. When stratified by vaccination status, we detected distinct response signatures between unvaccinated and breakthrough (vaccinated) infection subgroups; unvaccinated individuals portrayed a response repertoire characterized by higher innate antiviral responses, interferon signaling, and cytotoxic lymphocyte responses while breakthrough infections portrayed lower levels of interferon signaling and enhanced early cell-mediated response. Leveraging cross-platform longitudinal sampling (nasal swabs and blood), we observed that IFI27, a key viral response gene, tracked closely with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in individual participants. Taken together, these results demonstrate that at-home sampling can capture key host antiviral responses and facilitate frequent longitudinal sampling to detect transient host immune kinetics during dynamic immune states.

Stable HIV Reservoir Despite Prolonged Low-Dose Mycophenolate to Limit CD4+ T-cell Proliferation

Background

The HIV reservoir of latently infected CD4+ T cells represents the barrier to cure. CD4+ T-cell proliferation is a mechanism that sustains the reservoir even during prolonged antiretroviral therapy (ART). Blocking proliferation may therefore deplete the reservoir.

Methods

We conducted an unblinded, uncontrolled clinical trial of mycophenolate, a T-cell antiproliferative compound, in people with HIV on chronic suppressive ART. Study drug dose selection was based on calibration to an observed ex vivo antiproliferative effect. The primary outcome was clinically significant reduction (>0.25 log10) in the HIV reservoir, measured by total and intact HIV DNA per million T cells in blood over 48 weeks.

Results

Five participants enrolled in the trial. Four participants took mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). One had a per-protocol switch to enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (Myfortic) due to nausea but left the study for personal reasons. One participant developed finger cellulitis, but there were no opportunistic infections. In the 4 participants who completed the protocol, there was no clinically significant reduction in total or intact HIV DNA. There was no change in blood CD4+ T-cell subset composition within the HIV reservoir or the entire CD4+ T-cell population, although total CD4+ T cells decreased slightly in all 4 participants. An ex vivo antiproliferative effect was observed using participant serum obtained 1 hour after dosing, but this effect was severely diminished at drug trough.

Conclusions

Mycophenolate given over 48 weeks did not reduce the volume or composition of the HIV reservoir.

Clinical Trials registration

NCT03262441.

Substantial uneven proliferation of CD4+ T cells during recovery from acute HIV infection is sufficient to explain the observed expanded clones in the HIV reservoir

The HIV reservoir is a population of 1-10 million anatomically dispersed, latently infected memory CD4+ T cells in which HIV DNA is quiescently integrated into human chromosomal DNA. When antiretroviral therapy (ART) is stopped and HIV replication initiates in one of these cells, systemic viral spread resumes, rekindling progression to AIDS. Therefore, HIV latency prevents cure. The detection of many populations of identical HIV sequences at unique integration sites implicates CD4+ T cell proliferation as the critical driver of reservoir sustainment after a prolonged period of effective ART. Initial reservoir formation occurs during the first week of primary infection usually before ART is started. While empirical data indicates that both de novo infection and cellular proliferation generate latently infected cells during early untreated infection, it is not known which of these mechanisms is predominant. We developed a mathematical model that recapitulates the profound depletion and brisk recovery of CD4+ T cells, reservoir creation, and viral load trajectory during primary HIV infection. We extended the model to stochastically simulate individual HIV reservoir clones. This model predicts the first detection of HIV infected clones approximately 5 weeks after infection as has recently been shown in vivo and suggests that substantial, uneven proliferation among clones during the recovery from CD4+ lymphopenia is the most plausible explanation for the observed clonal reservoir distribution during the first year of infection.

Combinations of Host- and Virus-Targeting Antiviral Drugs Confer Synergistic Suppression of SARS-CoV-2

Three directly acting antivirals (DAAs) demonstrated substantial reduction in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in clinical trials. However, these agents did not completely prevent severe illness and are associated with cases of rebound illness and viral shedding. Combination regimens can enhance antiviral potency, reduce the emergence of drug-resistant variants, and lower the dose of each component in the combination. Concurrently targeting virus entry and virus replication offers opportunities to discover synergistic drug combinations. While combination antiviral drug treatments are standard for chronic RNA virus infections, no antiviral combination therapy has been approved for SARS-CoV-2. Here, we demonstrate that combining host-targeting antivirals (HTAs) that target TMPRSS2 and hence SARS-CoV-2 entry, with the DAA molnupiravir, which targets SARS-CoV-2 replication, synergistically suppresses SARS-CoV-2 infection in Calu-3 lung epithelial cells. Strong synergy was observed when molnupiravir, an oral drug, was combined with three TMPRSS2 (HTA) oral or inhaled inhibitors: camostat, avoralstat, or nafamostat. The combination of camostat plus molnupiravir was also effective against the beta and delta variants of concern. The pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitor brequinar combined with molnupiravir also conferred robust synergistic inhibition. These HTA+DAA combinations had similar potency to the synergistic all-DAA combination of molnupiravir plus nirmatrelvir, the protease inhibitor found in paxlovid. Pharmacodynamic modeling allowed estimates of antiviral potency at all possible concentrations of each agent within plausible therapeutic ranges, suggesting possible in vivo efficacy. The triple combination of camostat, brequinar, and molnupiravir further increased antiviral potency. These findings support the development of HTA+DAA combinations for pandemic response and preparedness. IMPORTANCE Imagine a future viral pandemic where if you test positive for the new virus, you can quickly take some medicines at home for a few days so that you do not get too sick. To date, only single drugs have been approved for outpatient use against SARS-CoV-2, and we are learning that these have some limitations and may succumb to drug resistance. Here, we show that combinations of two oral drugs are better than the single ones in blocking SARS-CoV-2, and we use mathematical modeling to show that these drug combinations are likely to work in people. We also show that a combination of three oral drugs works even better at eradicating the virus. Our findings therefore bode well for the development of oral drug cocktails for at home use at the first sign of an infection by a coronavirus or other emerging viral pathogens.

Modeling explains prolonged SARS-CoV-2 nasal shedding relative to lung shedding in remdesivir treated rhesus macaques

In clinical trials, remdesivir decreased recovery time in hospitalized patients with SARS- CoV-2 and prevented hospitalization when given early during infection, despite not reducing nasal viral loads. In rhesus macaques, early remdesivir prevented pneumonia and lowered lung viral loads, but viral loads increased in nasal passages after five days. We developed mathematical models to explain these results. Our model raises the hypotheses that: 1) in contrast to nasal passages viral load monotonically decreases in lungs during therapy because of infection-dependent generation of refractory cells, 2) slight reduction in lung viral loads with an imperfect agent may result in a substantial decrease in lung damage, and 3) increases in nasal viral load may occur due to a blunting of peak viral load which decreases the intensity of the innate immune response. We demonstrate that a higher potency drug could lower viral loads in nasal passages and lung.

Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has hampered international efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. VOCs have been characterized to varying degrees by higher transmissibility, worse infection outcomes and evasion of vaccine and infection-induced immunologic memory. VOCs are hypothesized to have originated from animal reservoirs, communities in regions with low surveillance and/or single individuals with poor immunologic control of the virus. Yet, the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate remain incompletely characterized. Here we present a multi-scale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics that describes population spread through individuals whose viral loads and numbers of contacts (drawn from an over-dispersed distribution) are both time-varying. This framework allows us to explore how super-spreader events (SSE) (defined as greater than five secondary infections per day) contribute to variant emergence. We find stochasticity remains a powerful determinant of predominance. Variants that predominate are more likely to be associated with higher infectiousness, an SSE early after variant emergence and ongoing decline of the current dominant variant. Additionally, our simulations reveal that most new highly infectious variants that infect one or a few individuals do not achieve permanence in the population. Consequently, interventions that reduce super-spreading may delay or mitigate emergence of VOCs.

Improving vaccination coverage and offering vaccine to all school-age children allowed uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County, WA: Modeling analysis

The rapid spread of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants combined with slowing pace of vaccination in Fall 2021 created uncertainty around the future trajectory of the epidemic in King County, Washington, USA. We analyzed the benefits of offering vaccination to children ages 5-11 and expanding the overall vaccination coverage using mathematical modeling. We adapted a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington, to simulate scenarios of vaccinating children aged 5-11 with different starting dates and different proportions of physical interactions (PPI) in schools being restored. Dynamic social distancing was implemented in response to changes in weekly hospitalizations. Reduction of hospitalizations and estimated time under additional social distancing measures are reported over the 2021-2022 school year. In the scenario with 85% vaccination coverage of 12+ year-olds, offering early vaccination to children aged 5-11 with 75% PPI was predicted to prevent 756 (median, IQR 301-1434) hospitalizations cutting youth hospitalizations in half compared to no vaccination and largely reducing the need for additional social distancing measures over the school year. If, in addition, 90% overall vaccination coverage was reached, 60% of remaining hospitalizations would be averted and the need for increased social distancing would almost certainly be avoided. Our work suggests that uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County was partly possible because reasonable precaution measures were taken at schools to reduce infectious contacts. Rapid vaccination of all school-aged children provides meaningful reduction of the COVID-19 health burden over this school year but only if implemented early. It remains critical to vaccinate as many people as possible to limit the morbidity and mortality associated with future epidemic waves.

Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients

BACKGROUND

Remdesivir improves clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with moderate-to-severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Whether the use of remdesivir in symptomatic, nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who are at high risk for disease progression prevents hospitalization is uncertain.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who had symptom onset within the previous 7 days and who had at least one risk factor for disease progression (age ≥60 years, obesity, or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients were randomly assigned to receive intravenous remdesivir (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause by day 28. The primary safety end point was any adverse event. A secondary end point was a composite of a Covid-19-related medically attended visit or death from any cause by day 28.

RESULTS

A total of 562 patients who underwent randomization and received at least one dose of remdesivir or placebo were included in the analyses: 279 patients in the remdesivir group and 283 in the placebo group. The mean age was 50 years, 47.9% of the patients were women, and 41.8% were Hispanic or Latinx. The most common coexisting conditions were diabetes mellitus (61.6%), obesity (55.2%), and hypertension (47.7%). Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause occurred in 2 patients (0.7%) in the remdesivir group and in 15 (5.3%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03 to 0.59; P = 0.008). A total of 4 of 246 patients (1.6%) in the remdesivir group and 21 of 252 (8.3%) in the placebo group had a Covid-19-related medically attended visit by day 28 (hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.56). No patients had died by day 28. Adverse events occurred in 42.3% of the patients in the remdesivir group and in 46.3% of those in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among nonhospitalized patients who were at high risk for Covid-19 progression, a 3-day course of remdesivir had an acceptable safety profile and resulted in an 87% lower risk of hospitalization or death than placebo. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; PINETREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501952; EudraCT number, 2020-003510-12.).

HIV reservoir quantification using cross-subtype multiplex ddPCR

A major barrier to conducting HIV cure research in populations with the highest HIV burden is the lack of an accurate assay to quantify the replication-competent reservoir across the dominant global HIV-1 subtypes. Here, we modify a subtype B HIV-1 assay that quantifies both intact and defective proviral DNA, adapting it to accommodate cross-subtype HIV-1 sequence diversity. We show that the cross-subtype assay works on subtypes A, B, C, D, and CRF01_AE and can detect a single copy of intact provirus. In longitudinal blood samples from Kenyan infants infected with subtypes A and D, patterns of intact and total HIV DNA follow the decay of plasma viral load over time during antiretroviral therapy, with intact HIV DNA comprising 7% (range 1%-33%) of the total HIV DNA during HIV RNA suppression. This high-throughput cross-subtype reservoir assay will be useful in HIV cure research in Africa and Asia, where HIV prevalence is highest.

Estimation of the in vivo neutralization potency of eCD4Ig and conditions for AAV-mediated production for SHIV long-term remission

The engineered protein eCD4Ig has emerged as a promising approach to achieve HIV remission in the absence of antiviral therapy. eCD4Ig neutralizes nearly all HIV-1 isolates and induces antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) in vitro. To characterize the in vivo antiviral neutralization and possible ADCC effects of eCD4Ig, we fit mathematical models to eCD4Ig, anti–eCD4Ig-drug antibody (ADA), and viral load kinetics from healthy and simian-human immunodeficiency virus AD8 (SHIV-AD8) infected nonhuman primates that were treated with single or sequentially dosed eCD4Ig passive administrations. Our model predicts that eCD4Ig transiently decreases SHIV viral loads due to neutralization only with an in vivo IC₅₀ of ~25 μg/ml but with limited effect due to ADA. Simulations suggest that endogenous, continuous expression of eCD4Ig at levels greater than 10⁵ μg/day, as is possible with Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector-based production, could overcome the diminishing effects of ADA and allow for long-term remission of SHIV viremia in nonhuman primates.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (January 2020-March 2021) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy

The emergence and establishment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of interest (VOIs) and variants of concern (VOCs) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the United States (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from 19 January 2020 to 15 March 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics and to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value < 0.01; maximum VRV proportion >10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modeling was performed to gain insight into the potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which had not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identified 17 VRVs ~91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of four VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported a potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

Drug Combinations as a First Line of Defense against Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Viruses

The world was unprepared for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and remains ill-equipped for future pandemics. While unprecedented strides have been made developing vaccines and treatments for COVID-19, there remains a need for highly effective and widely available regimens for ambulatory use for novel coronaviruses and other viral pathogens. We posit that a priority is to develop pan-family drug cocktails to enhance potency, limit toxicity, and avoid drug resistance. We urge cocktail development for all viruses with pandemic potential both in the short term (<1 to 2 years) and longer term with pairs of drugs in advanced clinical testing or repurposed agents approved for other indications. While significant efforts were launched against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in vitro and in the clinic, many studies employed solo drugs and had disappointing results. Here, we review drug combination studies against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses and introduce a model-driven approach to assess drug pairs with the highest likelihood of clinical efficacy. Where component agents lack sufficient potency, we advocate for synergistic combinations to achieve therapeutic levels. We also discuss issues that stymied therapeutic progress against COVID-19, including testing of agents with low likelihood of efficacy late in clinical disease and lack of focus on developing virologic surrogate endpoints. There is a need to expedite efficient clinical trials testing drug combinations that could be taken at home by recently infected individuals and exposed contacts as early as possible during the next pandemic, whether caused by a coronavirus or another viral pathogen. The approach herein represents a proactive plan for global viral pandemic preparedness.

A regulatory T cell signature distinguishes the immune landscape of COVID-19 patients from those with other respiratory infections

Despite recent studies of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), little is known about how the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 differs from other respiratory infections. We compare the immune signature from hospitalized SARS-CoV-2–infected patients to patients hospitalized prepandemic with influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Our in-depth profiling indicates that the immune landscape in SARS-CoV-2 patients is largely similar to flu or RSV patients. Unique to patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 who had the most critical clinical disease were changes in the regulatory T cell (T_reg) compartment. A T_reg signature including increased frequency, activation status, and migration markers was correlated COVID-19 severity. These findings are relevant as T_regs are considered for therapy to combat the severe inflammation seen in COVID-19 patients. Likewise, having defined the overlapping immune landscapes in SARS-CoV-2, existing knowledge of flu and RSV infections could be leveraged to identify common treatment strategies.

Pharmacologic control of homeostatic and antigen-driven proliferation to target HIV-1 persistence

The presence of latent human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) in quiescent memory CD4 + T cells represents a major barrier to viral eradication. Proliferation of memory CD4 + T cells is the primary mechanism that leads to persistence of the latent reservoir, despite effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Memory CD4 + T cells are long-lived and can proliferate through two mechanisms: homeostatic proliferation via γc-cytokine stimulation or antigen-driven proliferation. Therefore, therapeutic modalities that perturb homeostatic and antigen-driven proliferation, combined with ART, represent promising strategies to reduce the latent reservoir. In this study, we investigated a library of FDA-approved oncology drugs to determine their ability to inhibit homeostatic and/or antigen-driven proliferation. We confirmed potential hits by evaluating their effects on proliferation in memory CD4 + T cells from people living with HIV-1 on ART (PLWH) and interrogated downstream signaling of γc-cytokine stimulation. We found that dasatinib and ponatinib, tyrosine kinase inhibitors, and trametinib, a MEK inhibitor, reduced both homeostatic and antigen-driven proliferationby >65%, with a reduction in viability <45%, ex vivo. In memory CD4 + T cells from PLWH, only dasatinib restricted both homeostatic and antigen-driven proliferation and prevented spontaneous rebound, consistent with promoting a smaller reservoir size. We show that dasatinib restricts IL-7 induced proliferation through STAT5 phosphorylation inhibition. Our results establish that the anti-cancer agent dasatinib is an exciting candidate to be used as an anti-proliferative drug in a clinical trial, since it efficiently blocks proliferation and iswell tolerated in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML).

Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine clinical trials assess efficacy against disease (VEDIS), the ability to block symptomatic COVID-19. They only partially discriminate whether VEDIS is mediated by preventing infection completely, which is defined as detection of virus in the airways (VESUSC), or by preventing symptoms despite infection (VESYMP). Vaccine efficacy against transmissibility given infection (VEINF), the decrease in secondary transmissions from infected vaccine recipients, is also not measured. Using mathematical modeling of data from King County Washington, we demonstrate that if the Moderna (mRNA-1273QS) and Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccines, which demonstrated VEDIS > 90% in clinical trials, mediate VEDIS by VESUSC, then a limited fourth epidemic wave of infections with the highly infectious B.1.1.7 variant would have been predicted in spring 2021 assuming rapid vaccine roll out. If high VEDIS is explained by VESYMP, then high VEINF would have also been necessary to limit the extent of this fourth wave. Vaccines which completely protect against infection or secondary transmission also substantially lower the number of people who must be vaccinated before the herd immunity threshold is reached. The limited extent of the fourth wave suggests that the vaccines have either high VESUSC or both high VESYMP and high VEINF against B.1.1.7. Finally, using a separate intra-host mathematical model of viral kinetics, we demonstrate that a 0.6 log vaccine-mediated reduction in average peak viral load might be sufficient to achieve 50% VEINF, which suggests that human challenge studies with a relatively low number of infected participants could be employed to estimate all three vaccine efficacy metrics.

CMV viral load kinetics as surrogate endpoints after allogeneic transplantation

BACKGROUNDViral load (VL) surrogate endpoints transformed development of HIV and hepatitis C therapeutics. Surrogate endpoints for CMV-related morbidity and mortality could advance development of antiviral treatments. Although observational data support using CMV VL as a trial endpoint, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating direct associations between virological markers and clinical endpoints are lacking.METHODSWe performed CMV DNA PCR on frozen serum samples from the only placebo-controlled RCT of ganciclovir for early treatment of CMV after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We used established criteria to assess VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease or death by weeks 8, 24, and 48 after randomization and quantified antiviral effects captured by each marker. We used ensemble-based machine learning to assess the predictive ability of VL kinetics and performed this analysis on a ganciclovir prophylaxis RCT for validation.RESULTSVL suppression with ganciclovir reduced cumulative incidence of CMV disease and death for 20 years after HCT. Mean VL, peak VL, and change in VL during the first 5 weeks of treatment fulfilled the Prentice definition for surrogacy, capturing more than 95% of ganciclovir's effect, and yielded highly sensitive and specific predictions by week 48. In the prophylaxis trial, the viral shedding rate satisfied the Prentice definition for CMV disease by week 24.CONCLUSIONSOur results support using CMV VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease, provide a framework for developing CMV preventative and therapeutic agents, and support reductions in VL as the mechanism through which antivirals reduce CMV disease.FUNDINGMerck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

COVID-19 vaccines that reduce symptoms but do not block infection need higher coverage and faster rollout to achieve population impact

Trial results for two COVID-19 vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VEDIS). It remains unknown whether this efficacy is mediated by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility (VESUSC) or development of symptoms after infection (VESYMP). We aim to assess and compare the population impact of vaccines with different efficacy profiles (VESYMP and VESUSC) satisfying licensure criteria. We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington. Rollout scenarios starting December 2020 were simulated with combinations of VESUSC and VESYMP resulting in up to 100% VEDIS. We assumed no reduction of infectivity upon infection conditional on presence of symptoms. Proportions of cumulative infections, hospitalizations and deaths prevented over 1 year from vaccination start are reported. Rollouts of 1 M vaccinations (5000 daily) using vaccines with 50% VEDIS are projected to prevent 23-46% of infections and 31-46% of deaths over 1 year. In comparison, vaccines with 90% VEDIS are projected to prevent 37-64% of infections and 46-64% of deaths over 1 year. In both cases, there is a greater reduction if VEDIS is mediated mostly by VESUSC. The use of a "symptom reducing" vaccine will require twice as many people vaccinated than a "susceptibility reducing" vaccine with the same 90% VEDIS to prevent 50% of the infections and death over 1 year. Delaying the start of the vaccination by 3 months decreases the expected population impact by more than 50%. Vaccines which prevent COVID-19 disease but not SARS-CoV-2 infection, and thereby shift symptomatic infections to asymptomatic infections, will prevent fewer infections and require larger and faster vaccination rollouts to have population impact, compared to vaccines that reduce susceptibility to infection. If uncontrolled transmission across the U.S. continues, then expected vaccination in Spring 2021 will provide only limited benefit.

Cytomegalovirus-specific T-cell reconstitution following letermovir prophylaxis after hematopoietic cell transplantation

Decreased cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific immunity after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is associated with late CMV reactivation and increased mortality. Whether letermovir prophylaxis-associated reduction in viral exposure influences CMV-specific immune reconstitution is unknown. In a prospective cohort of allogeneic HCT recipients who received letermovir, we compared polyfunctional CMV-specific T-cell responses to those of controls who received PCR-guided preemptive therapy before the introduction of letermovir. Thirteen-color flow cytometry was used to assess T-cell responses at 3 months after HCT following stimulation with CMV immediate early-1 (IE-1) antigen and phosphoprotein 65 (pp65) antigens. Polyfunctionality was characterized by combinatorial polyfunctionality analysis of antigen-specific T-cell subsets. Use of letermovir and reduction of viral exposure were assessed for their association with CMV-specific T-cell immunity. Polyfunctional T-cell responses to IE-1 and pp65 were decreased in letermovir recipients and remained diminished after adjustment for donor CMV serostatus, absolute lymphocyte count, and steroid use. Among letermovir recipients, greater peak CMV DNAemia and increased viral shedding were associated with stronger CD8+ responses to pp65, whereas the CMV shedding rate was associated with greater CD4+ responses to IE-1. In summary, our study provided initial evidence that letermovir may delay CMV-specific cellular reconstitution, possibly related to decreased CMV antigen exposure. Evaluating T-cell polyfunctionality may identify patients at risk for late CMV infection after HCT.

Quantifying the Impact of Lifting Community Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for COVID-19 During Vaccination Rollout in the United States

Using a mathematical model, we estimated the potential impact on mortality and total infections of completely lifting community nonpharmaceutical interventions when only a small proportion of the population has been fully vaccinated in 2 states in the United States. Lifting all community nonpharmaceutical interventions immediately is predicted to result in twice as many deaths over the next 6 months as a more moderate reopening allowing 70% of prepandemic contacts.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (2020/01 - 2021/03) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy

The emergence and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (VOI) and variants of concern (VOC) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from US COVID-19 cases (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from January 19, 2020 to March 15, 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics, to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value <0.01; maximum VRV proportion > 10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modelling was performed to gain insight into potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which have not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identifies 17 VRVs ∼91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of 4 VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies with one and two doses of vaccine under various degrees of viral transmission. Under low transmission, we show that the optimal allocation of vaccine vitally depends on the single-dose efficacy. With high single-dose efficacy, single-dose vaccination is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. With low or moderate single-dose efficacy, mixed vaccination campaigns with complete coverage of older adults are optimal. However, with modest or high transmission, vaccinating older adults first with two doses is best, preventing up to 41% more deaths than a single-dose vaccination given across all adult populations. Our work suggests that it is imperative to determine the efficacy and durability of single-dose vaccines, as mixed or single-dose vaccination campaigns may have the potential to contain the pandemic much more quickly.

Cervicovaginal Tissue Residence Confers a Distinct Differentiation Program upon Memory CD8 T Cells

Tissue-resident memory CD8 T cells (CD8 T_RM) are critical for maintaining barrier immunity. CD8 T_RM have been mainly studied in the skin, lung and gut, with recent studies suggesting that the signals that control tissue residence and phenotype are highly tissue dependent. We examined the T cell compartment in healthy human cervicovaginal tissue (CVT) and found that most CD8 T cells were granzyme B⁺ and TCF-1^- To address if this phenotype is driven by CVT tissue residence, we used a mouse model to control for environmental factors. Using localized and systemic infection models, we found that CD8 T_RM in the mouse CVT gradually acquired a granzyme B⁺, TCF-1^- phenotype as seen in human CVT. In contrast to CD8 T_RM in the gut, these CD8 T_RM were not stably maintained regardless of the initial infection route, which led to reductions in local immunity. Our data show that residence in the CVT is sufficient to progressively shape the size and function of its CD8 T_RM compartment.

Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model

Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.

Examining the dynamics of Epstein-Barr virus shedding in the tonsils and the impact of HIV-1 coinfection on daily saliva viral loads

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is transmitted by saliva and is a major cause of cancer, particularly in people living with HIV/AIDS. Here, we describe the frequency and quantity of EBV detection in the saliva of Ugandan adults with and without HIV-1 infection and use these data to develop a novel mathematical model of EBV infection in the tonsils. Eligible cohort participants were not taking antiviral medications, and those with HIV-1 infection had a CD4 count >200 cells/mm3. Over a 4-week period, participants provided daily oral swabs that we analysed for the presence and quantity of EBV. Compared with HIV-1 uninfected participants, HIV-1 coinfected participants had an increased risk of EBV detection in their saliva (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.10-1.47) and higher viral loads in positive samples. We used these data to develop a stochastic, mechanistic mathematical model that describes the dynamics of EBV, infected cells, and immune response within the tonsillar epithelium to analyse potential factors that may cause EBV infection to be more severe in HIV-1 coinfected participants. The model, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation, showed high fidelity to daily oral shedding data and matched key summary statistics. When evaluating how model parameters differed among participants with and without HIV-1 coinfection, results suggest HIV-1 coinfected individuals have higher rates of B cell reactivation, which can seed new infection in the tonsils and lower rates of an EBV-specific immune response. Subsequently, both these traits may explain higher and more frequent EBV detection in the saliva of HIV-1 coinfected individuals.

Outcomes of Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients with Mixed Response to Pretransplantation Treatment of Confirmed or Suspected Invasive Fungal Infection

Patients with hematologic malignancy or bone marrow failure are typically required to achieve radiographic improvement or stabilization of invasive fungal infection (IFI) before hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) owing to a concern for progression before engraftment. Refractory IFI with a mixture of improvement and progression on serial imaging (ie, mixed response) poses a clinical dilemma, because a delay in HCT may allow for a hematologic relapse or other complications. Furthermore, HCT itself may yield the immune reconstitution necessary for clearance of infection. We sought to describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent HCT with mixed response IFI. We performed a chart review of all patients who underwent HCT between 2014 and 2020 in whom imaging within 6 weeks before HCT indicated a mixed response to treatment of a diagnosed IFI. Fourteen patients had evidence of a mixed response in low-to-moderate burden of diagnosed IFI by imaging before HCT, including 9 with pulmonary aspergillosis, 2 with hepatosplenic candidiasis (1 also with aspergillosis), and 4 with pulmonary nodules of presumed fungal etiology. Five had refractory severe neutropenia at evaluation for HCT (median, 95 days). All 14 patients showed radiographic stability or improvement in imaging following engraftment; no IFI-related surgeries were required, and no IFI-related deaths occurred. For patients without relapse who underwent HCT more than 1 year earlier, 7 of 8 (88%) were alive at 1 year. Our findings suggest that low-to-moderate burden IFI with mixed response is unlikely to progress on appropriate therapy before engraftment during allogeneic HCT.

A highly multiplexed droplet digital PCR assay to measure the intact HIV-1 proviral reservoir

Quantifying the replication-competent HIV reservoir is essential for evaluating curative strategies. Viral outgrowth assays (VOAs) underestimate the reservoir because they fail to induce all replication-competent proviruses. Single- or double-region HIV DNA assays overestimate it because they fail to exclude many defective proviruses. We designed two triplex droplet digital PCR assays, each with 2 unique targets and 1 in common, and normalize the results to PCR-based T cell counts. Both HIV assays are specific, sensitive, and reproducible. Together, they estimate the number of proviruses containing all five primer-probe regions. Our 5-target results are on average 12.1-fold higher than and correlate with paired quantitative VOA (Spearman's ρ = 0.48) but estimate a markedly smaller reservoir than previous DNA assays. In patients on antiretroviral therapy, decay rates in blood CD4+ T cells are faster for intact than for defective proviruses, and intact provirus frequencies are similar in mucosal and circulating T cells.

Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines: potential role of single-dose vaccination

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies with one and two doses of vaccine under various degrees of viral transmission. Under low transmission, we show that the optimal allocation of vaccine vitally depends on the single-dose efficacy (SDE). With high SDE, single-dose vaccination is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. With low or moderate SDE, mixed vaccination campaigns with complete coverage of older adults are optimal. However, with modest or high transmission, vaccinating older adults first with two doses is best, preventing up to 41% more deaths than a single-dose vaccination given across all adult populations. Our work suggests that it is imperative to determine the efficacy and durability of single-dose vaccines, as mixed or single-dose vaccination campaigns may have the potential to contain the pandemic much more quickly.

A differential regulatory T cell signature distinguishes the immune landscape of COVID-19 hospitalized patients from those hospitalized with other respiratory viral infections

SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused a lasting global pandemic costing millions of lives and untold additional costs. Understanding the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 has been one of the main challenges in the past year in order to decipher mechanisms of host responses and interpret disease pathogenesis. Comparatively little is known in regard to how the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 differs from other respiratory infections. In our study, we compare the peripheral blood immune signature from SARS-CoV-2 infected patients to patients hospitalized pre-pandemic with Influenza Virus or Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). Our in-depth profiling indicates that the immune landscape in patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 is largely similar to patients hospitalized with Flu or RSV. Similarly, serum cytokine and chemokine expression patterns were largely overlapping. Unique to patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 who had the most critical clinical disease state were changes in the regulatory T cell (Treg) compartment. A Treg signature including increased frequency, activation status, and migration markers was correlated with the severity of COVID-19 disease. These findings are particularly relevant as Tregs are being discussed as a therapy to combat the severe inflammation seen in COVID-19 patients. Likewise, having defined the overlapping immune landscapes in SARS-CoV-2, existing knowledge of Flu and RSV infections could be leveraged to identify common treatment strategies.

HIGHLIGHTS

The immune landscapes of hospitalized pre-pandemic RSV and influenza patients are similar to SARS-CoV-2 patientsSerum cytokine and chemokine expression patterns are largely similar between patients hospitalized with respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2, versus healthy donorsSARS-CoV-2 patients with the most critical disease displayed unique changes in the Treg compartmentadvances in understanding and treating SARS-CoV-2 could be leveraged for other common respiratory infections.

Endogenously Produced SARS-CoV-2 Specific IgG Antibodies May Have a Limited Impact on Clearing Nasal Shedding of Virus during Primary Infection in Humans

While SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies have been developed for therapeutic purposes, the specific viral triggers that drive the generation of SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and IgM antibodies remain only partially characterized. Moreover, it is unknown whether endogenously derived antibodies drive viral clearance that might result in mitigation of clinical severity during natural infection. We developed a series of non-linear mathematical models to investigate whether SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody kinetics are coupled or governed by separate processes. Patients with severe disease had a higher production rate of IgG but not IgM antibodies. Maximal levels of both isotypes were governed by their production rate rather than different saturation levels between people. Our results suggest that an exponential surge in IgG levels occurs approximately 5-10 days after symptom onset with no requirement for continual antigenic stimulation. SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies appear to have limited to no effect on viral dynamics but may enhance viral clearance late during primary infection resulting from the binding effect of antibody to virus, rather than neutralization. In conclusion, SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies may play only a limited role in clearing infection from the nasal passages despite providing long-term immunity against infection following vaccination or prior infection.

Hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin for treatment of early SARS-CoV-2 infection among high-risk outpatient adults: A randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Treatment options for outpatients with COVID-19 could reduce morbidity and prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

METHODS

In this randomized, double-blind, three-arm (1:1:1) placebo-equivalent controlled trial conducted remotely throughout the United States, adult outpatients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited. Participants were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) (400 mg BID x1day, followed by 200 mg BID x9days) with or without azithromycin (AZ) (500 mg, then 250 mg daily x4days) or placebo-equivalent (ascorbic acid (HCQ) and folic acid (AZ)), stratified by risk for progression to severe COVID-19 (high-risk vs. low-risk). Self-collected nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR, FLUPro symptom surveys, EKGs and vital signs were collected daily. Primary endpoints were: (a) 14-day progression to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), 28-day COVID-19 related hospitalization, or death; (b) 14-day time to viral clearance; secondary endpoints included time to symptom resolution (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04354428). Due to the low rate of clinical outcomes, the study was terminated for operational futility.

FINDINGS

Between 15th April and 27th July 2020, 231 participants were enrolled and 219 initiated medication a median of 5.9 days after symptom onset. Among 129 high-risk participants, incident LRTI occurred in six (4.7%) participants (two control, four HCQ/AZ) and COVID-19 related hospitalization in seven (5.4%) (four control, one HCQ, two HCQ/AZ); no LRTI and two (2%) hospitalizations occurred in the 102 low-risk participants (one HCQ, one HCQ/AZ). There were no deaths. Among 152 participants with viral shedding at enrollment, median time to clearance was 5 days (95% CI=4-6) in HCQ, 6 days (95% CI=4-8) in HCQ/AZ, and 8 days (95% CI=6-10) in control. Viral clearance was faster in HCQ (HR=1.62, 95% CI=1.01-2.60, p = 0.047) but not HCQ/AZ (HR=1.25, p = 0.39) compared to control. Among 197 participants who met the COVID-19 definition at enrollment, time to symptom resolution did not differ by group (HCQ: HR=1.02, 95% CI-0.63-1.64, p = 0.95, HCQ/AZ: HR=0.91, 95% CI=0.57-1.45, p = 0.70).

INTERPRETATION

Neither HCQ nor HCQ/AZ shortened the clinical course of outpatients with COVID-19, and HCQ, but not HCQ/AZ, had only a modest effect on SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding. HCQ and HCQ/AZ are not effective therapies for outpatient treatment of SARV-CoV-2 infection.

FUNDING

The COVID-19 Early Treatment Study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-017062) through the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator. University of Washington Institute of Translational Health Science (ITHS) grant support (UL1 TR002319), KL2 TR002317, and TL1 TR002318 from NCATS/NIH funded REDCap. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated. PAN and MJA were supported by the Mayo Clinic Windland Smith Rice Comprehensive Sudden Cardiac Death Program.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04354428.