Is Kidney Function Associated with Age-Related Macular Degeneration?: Findings from the Asian Eye Epidemiology Consortium

PURPOSE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) may elevate susceptibility to age-related macular degeneration (AMD) because of shared risk factors, pathogenic mechanisms, and genetic polymorphisms. Given the inconclusive findings in prior studies, we investigated this association using extensive datasets in the Asian Eye Epidemiology Consortium.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Fifty-one thousand two hundred fifty-three participants from 10 distinct population-based Asian studies.

METHODS

Age-related macular degeneration was defined using the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System, the International Age-Related Maculopathy Epidemiological Study Group Classification, or the Beckman Clinical Classification. Chronic kidney disease was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. A pooled analysis using individual-level participant data was performed to examine the associations between CKD and eGFR with AMD (early and late), adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, smoking status, total cholesterol, and study groups.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Odds ratio (OR) of early and late AMD.

RESULTS

Among 51 253 participants (mean age, 54.1 ± 14.5 years), 5079 had CKD (9.9%). The prevalence of early AMD was 9.0%, and that of late AMD was 0.71%. After adjusting for confounders, individuals with CKD were associated with higher odds of late AMD (OR, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.93; P = 0.008). Similarly, poorer kidney function (per 10-unit eGFR decrease) was associated with late AMD (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19; P = 0.001). Nevertheless, CKD and eGFR were not associated significantly with early AMD (all P ≥ 0.149).

CONCLUSIONS

Pooled analysis from 10 distinct Asian population-based studies revealed that CKD and compromised kidney function are associated significantly with late AMD. This finding further underscores the importance of ocular examinations in patients with CKD.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Intravitreal panitumumab and myopic macular degeneration

BACKGROUND

In experimental studies, intravitreally applied antibodies against epidermal growth factor (EGF), EGF family members (amphiregulin, neuregulin-1, betacellulin, epigen, epiregulin) and against the EGF receptor (EGFR) were associated with a reduction in lens-induced axial elongation and decrease in physiological eye elongation in guinea pigs and in non-human primates. Here, we investigated the intraocular tolerability and safety of a fully human monoclonal IgG2-antibody against EGFR, already in clinical use in oncology, as a potential future therapeutic approach for axial elongation in adult eyes with pathological myopia.

METHODS

The clinical, monocentre, open-label, multiple-dose, phase-1 study included patients with myopic macular degeneration of stage 4, who received intravitreal injections of panitumumab in various doses and in intervals ranging between 2.1 months and 6.3 months.

RESULTS

The study included 11 patients (age:66.8±6.3 years), receiving panitumumab injections in doses of 0.6 mg (4 eyes; 1×1 injection, 3×2 injections), 1.2 mg (4 eyes; 1×1 injection, 2×2 injections, 1×3 injections) and 1.8 mg (3 eyes; 1×1 injection, 2×2 injections), respectively. None of the participants showed treatment-emergent systemic adverse events or intraocular inflammatory reactions. Best-corrected visual acuity (1.62±0.47 logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution (logMAR) vs 1.28±0.59 logMAR; p=0.08) and intraocular pressure (13.8±2.4 mm Hg vs 14.3±2.6 mm Hg; p=0.20) remained unchanged. In nine patients with a follow-up of >3 months (mean:6.7±2.7 months), axial length did not change significantly (30.73±1.03 mm vs 30.77±1.19 mm; p=0.56).

CONCLUSIONS

In this open-labelled, phase-1 study with a mean follow-up of 6.7 months, panitumumab repeatedly administered intravitreally up to a dose of 1.8 mg was not associated with intraocular or systemic adverse effects. During the study period, axial length remained unchanged.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

DRKS00027302.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic accuracy of optic nerve head and macula OCT parameters for detecting glaucoma in eyes with and without high axial myopia

PURPOSE

To characterize structural differences and assess the diagnostic accuracy of optic nerve head (ONH) and macula optical coherence tomography (OCT) parameters to detect glaucoma in eyes with and without high axial myopia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study METHODS: 368 glaucoma and 411 healthy eyes with no axial myopia, 393 glaucoma and 271 healthy eyes with mild axial myopia and 124 glaucoma and 85 healthy eyes with high axial myopia were included. Global and sectoral peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (pRNFLT), Bruch's membrane opening minimum rim width (BMO-MRW), ganglion cell inner plexiform layer thickness (GCIPLT), and macula RNFLT (mRNFLT) were compared and the diagnostic accuracy for glaucoma detection was evaluated using adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Diagnostic accuracy for ONH and macula parameters to detect glaucoma was generally high and differed by myopia group. For ONH parameters the diagnostic accuracy was highest for global (AUC=0.95) and inferotemporal (AUC=0.91) pRNFLT for high myopes and global BMO-MRW for non-myopes (AUC=1.0) and mild myopes (AUC=0.97). For macula parameters, the diagnostic accuracy was higher in high myopes with 6 of the 11 GCIPLT global/sectors having adjusted AUCs > 0.90 compared to non-high myopes with no AUCs > 0.90. In all myopia groups, mRNFLT had lower AUCs than GCIPLT.

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic accuracy for pRNFL and GCIPL was high for high axial myopic eyes and shows promise for glaucoma detection in high myopes. Further analysis is needed to determine whether the high diagnostic accuracy can be confirmed in other populations.

Parapapillary drusen of the retinal pigment epithelium

PURPOSE

To describe the occurrence, morphology and associations of parapapillary drusen of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE-drusen).

METHODS

Using light microscopy, we histomorphometrically examined enucleated human eyes.

RESULTS

The study included 83 eyes (axial length: 25.9 ± 3.2 mm; range: 20.0-35.0 mm). Eyes with parapapillary RPE-drusen (n = 29 (35%) eyes) as compared to those without drusen had a significantly shorter axial length (24.0 ± 1.8 mm vs 27.0 ± 3.3 mm; p < 0.001), higher prevalence (27/29 vs 12/54; p < 0.001) and longer width (213 ± 125 μm vs 96 ± 282 μm; p < 0.0001) of parapapillary alpha zone, and thicker BM in parapapillary beta zone (8.4 ± 2.7 μm vs 3.9 ± 2.0 μm; p < 0.001) and alpha zone (6.6 ± 3.9 μm vs 4.4 ± 1.5 μm; p = 0.02). Prevalence of parapapillary RPE-drusen was 27 (69%) out of 39 eyes with alpha zone. Beneath the RPE-drusen and in total alpha zone, choriocapillaris was open, while it was closed in the central part of parapapillary beta zone. BM thickness was thicker (p = 0.001) in alpha zone than beta zone, where it was thicker (p < 0.001) than in the region outside of alpha/beta zone. BM thickness outside of alpha/beta zone was not correlated with prevalence of parapapillary RPE-drusen (p = 0.47) or axial length (p = 0.31). RPE cell density was higher in alpha zone than in the region adjacent to alpha zone (22.7 ± 7.3 cells/240 μm vs 18.3 ± 4.1 cells/240 μm; p < 0.001). In the parapapillary RPE-drusen, RPE cells were connected with a PAS-positive basal membrane.

CONCLUSIONS

Parapapillary RPE-drusen as fibrous pseudo-metaplasia of the RPE were associated with shorter axial length, higher prevalence and larger size of alpha zone, and thicker BM in alpha zone and beta zone. The RPE-drusen may be helpful to differentiate glaucomatous parapapillary beta zone from myopic beta zone.

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and associated factors of myopia in children and adolescents in Russia: the Ural Children Eye Study

BACKGROUND

To assess the prevalence of myopia and the distribution of ocular axial length as surrogate for myopic refractive error in school children in a population in Russia.

METHODS

The Ural Children Eye Study, a school-based case-control study, was conducted in Ufa/Bashkortostan/Russia from 2019 to 2022 and included 4933 children (age: 9.7±2.6 years; range: 6.2-18.8 years). The parents underwent a detailed interview and the children an ophthalmological and general examination.

RESULTS

Prevalence of any myopia (≤-0.50 dioptres (D)), minor myopia (-0.50 D to -1.0 D), moderate myopia (-1.01 D to -5.99 D) and high myopia (≤-6.0D) was 2187/3737 (46.2%; 95% CI 44.8% to 48.6%), 693/4737 (14.6%; 95% CI 13.6% to 15.6%), 1430/4737 (30.2%; 95% CI 28.9% to 31.5%) and 64/4737 (1.4%; 95% CI 1.0% to 1.7%), respectively. In the children aged 17+ years, prevalence of any, minor, moderate and high myopia was 170/259 (65.6%; 95% CI 59.8% to 71.5%), 130/259 (50.2%; 95% CI 44.1% to 56.3%), 28/259 (10.8%; 95% CI 7.0% to 14.6%) and 12/259 (4.6%; 95% CI 2.1% to 7.2%), respectively. After adjusting for corneal refractive power (beta: 0.09) and lens thickness (beta: -0.08), larger myopic refractive error was associated (r2=0.19) with older age (beta: 0.33), female sex (beta: 0.04), higher prevalence of maternal (beta: 0.15) and paternal (beta: 0.12) myopia, more time spent in school, with reading books or playing with the cell phone (beta: 0.05) and less total time spent outdoors (beta: 0.05). Axial length and myopic refractive error increased by 0.12 mm (95% CI 0.11 to 0.13) and -0.18 D (95% CI 0.17 to 0.20), respectively, per year of age.

CONCLUSIONS

In this ethnically mixed urban school children population from Russia, prevalence of any myopia (65.6%) and high myopia (4.6%) in children aged 17+ years was higher than in adult populations in the same region and it was lower than in East Asian school children, with similar associated factors.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Drusen in the macula and parapapillary region

PURPOSE

To examine histological characteristics and differences between drusen beneath the retinal pigment epithelium (small hard drusen) located in the macula and located in the parapapillary region.

METHODS

We histomorphometrically examined human eyes enucleated due to uveal melanomas or secondary angle-closure glaucoma.

RESULTS

The study included 106 eyes (age, 62.6 ± 15.2 years) with macular drusen (n = 7 globes) or parapapillary drusen (n = 29 eyes) and 70 eyes without drusen. In all drusen, periodic-acid-Schiff-positive material was located between the RPE basal membrane and the inner collagenous layer of Bruch's membrane (BM). Macular drusen as compared with parapapillary drusen had lower height (15.2 ± 10.1 µm versus 34.3 ± 19.8 µm; P = 0.003), while both groups did not differ significantly in basal drusen width (74.0 ± 36.3 µm versus 108.7 ± 101.0 µm; P = 0.95). Eyes with macular drusen and eyes without drusen did not differ significantly in BM thickness (2.74 ± 0.44 µm versus 2.55 ± 0.88 µm; P = 0.57) or in RPE cell density (35.4 ± 10.4 cells/480 µm versus 32.8 ± 7.5 cells/480 µm; P = 0.53), neither in the drusen region nor in the drusen vicinity, while BM thickness (4.60 ± 1.490 µm; P < 0.001) and RPE cell density (56.9 ± 26.8 cells/480 µm; P = 0.005) were higher at the parapapillary drusen. Eyes with macular drusen, eyes with parapapillary drusen, and eyes without drusen did not differ significantly in choriocapillaris density (all P > 0.10) and thickness (all P > 0.35). Limitations of the study, among others, were a small number and size of drusen examined, diseases leading to enucleation, lack of serial sections, limited resolution of light microscopy, and enucleation-related and histological preparation-associated artefacts.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study, also taking into account its methodological limitations, suggest that macular drusen and parapapillary drusen shared the morphological feature of periodic-acid-Schiff-positive material between the RPE basal membrane and BM and that they did not vary significantly in choriocapillaris thickness and density. RPE cell density and BM thickness were higher in parapapillary drusen than in macular drusen.

Prevalence of Myopic Maculopathy Among the Very Old: The Ural Very Old Study

Purpose

To assess the prevalence of myopic macular degeneration (MMD) in very old individuals.

Methods

The population-based Ural Very Old Study (UVOS) included 1526 (81.1%) of 1882 eligible inhabitants aged ≥85 years. Assessable fundus images were available for 930 (60.9%) individuals (mean age, 88.6 ± 2.7 years). MMD was defined by macular patchy atrophies (i.e., MMD stage 3 and 4 as defined by the Pathologic Myopia Study Group).

Results

MMD prevalence was 21 of 930 (2.3%; 95% CI, 1.3-3.3), with 10 individuals (1.1%; 95% CI, 0.4-1.7) having MMD stage 3 and 11 participants (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.5-1.9) MMD stage 4 disease. Within MMD stage 3 and 4, prevalence of binocular moderate to severe vision impairment was 4 of 10 (40%; 95% CI, 31-77) and 7 of 11 (64%; 95% CI, 30-98), respectively, and the prevalence of binocular blindness was 2 of 10 (20%; 95% CI, 0-50) and 3 of 11 (27%; 95% CI, 0-59), respectively. In minor myopia (axial length, 24.0 to <24.5 mm), moderate myopia (axial length, 24.5 to <26.5 mm), and high myopia (axial length, ≥26.5 mm), MMD prevalence in the right eyes was 0 of 46 eyes (0%), 3 of 40 eyes (8%; 95% CI, 0-16), and 7 of 9 (78%; 95% CI, 44-100), respectively; MMD prevalence in the left eyes was 1 in 48 eyes (2%; 95% CI, 0-6), 4 of 36 eyes (11%; 95% CI, 0-22), and 3 of 4 eyes (75%; 95% CI, 0-100), respectively. In multivariable analysis, a higher MMD prevalence (odds ratio, 8.89; 95% CI, 3.43-23.0; P < 0.001) and higher MMD stage (beta, 0.45; B, 19; 95% CI, 0.16-0.22; P < 0.001) were correlated with longer axial length but not with any other ocular or systemic parameter.

Conclusions

MMD prevalence (stages 3 and 4) in very old individuals increased 8.89-fold for each mm axial length increase, with a prevalence of ≥75% in highly myopic eyes. In old age, highly myopic individuals have a high risk of eventually developing MMD with marked vision impairment.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Brolucizumab for recalcitrant macular neovascularization in age-related macular degeneration with pigment epithelial detachment

PURPOSE

To analyze anatomic and functional response to intravitreal brolucizumab in age-related macular degeneration recalcitrant to previous intravitreal anti-VEGF therapies.

METHODS

In this monocentric, one arm, retrospective study, eyes affected by neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) resistant to other intravitreally injected anti-vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitors were switched to intravitreal brolucizumab. All patients underwent ophthalmological examinations at baseline and in regular follow-up intervals. Best registered visual acuity (BRVA), Goldmann tonometry, intraocular pressure (IOP), central retinal thickness (CRT) and pigment epithelial detachment (PED) characteristics were analyzed at initiation of anti-VEGF treatment, at treatment switch, and at the end of brolucizumab loading phase.

RESULTS

The study included 20 eyes of 18 consecutively treated patients (age: 77 ± 6 years). All eyes had macular neovascularization with PED. Previous treatments included intravitreal aflibercept, bevacizumab, and ranibizumab and had not resulted in a significant improvement in BRVA (0.5 ± 0.5 logMAR vs 0.5 ± 0.6 logMAR) or mean CRT (320 ± 60 µm vs 313 ± 83 µm) up to treatment switch to brolucizumab. At the end of the brolucizumab loading phase, there was significant improvement for both BRVA (0.3 ± 0.2 logMAR, P < 0.05) and CRT (264 ± 55 µm, P < 0.05). Under previous anti-VEGF therapy, there was a significant increase/deterioration in both PED area (2.68 mm2 to 5.18 mm2, P < 0.05) and PED volume (0.39 mm3 to 1.07 mm3, P < 0.05); however, both parameters improved after switching to brolucizumab (3.81 mm2 and 0.37 mm3, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest a favourable anatomical and visual response after treatment switch to brolucizumab in patients with nAMD refractory to previous anti-VEGF agents.

Genetic drivers of heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.

Optic neuropathy in high myopia: Glaucoma or high myopia or both?

Due to the increasing prevalence of high myopia around the world, structural and functional damages to the optic nerve in high myopia has recently attracted much attention. Evidence has shown that high myopia is related to the development of glaucomatous or glaucoma-like optic neuropathy, and that both have many common features. These similarities often pose a diagnostic challenge that will affect the future management of glaucoma suspects in high myopia. In this review, we summarize similarities and differences in optic neuropathy arising from non-pathologic high myopia and glaucoma by considering their respective structural and functional characteristics on fundus photography, optical coherence tomography scanning, and visual field tests. These features may also help to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of the optic neuropathies and to determine management strategies for patients with high myopia and glaucoma.

Intraocular pressure and its determinants in a very old population. The ural very old study

Purpose

To explore intraocular pressure (IOP) and its associated parameters in an aged population.

Methods

The epidemiologic Ural Very Old Study (UVOS) conducted in Bashkortostan/Russia included 1526 participants with an age of ≥85 years. Besides a whole series of ocular and systemic examinations, IOP was determined applying non-contact tonometry. Body mass index, diastolic blood pressure and age were the factors used to estimate the cerebrospinal fluid pressure (CSFP).

Results

The study consisted of 904 participants (age: 88.6 ± 2.7 years) with available IOP readings and without anti-glaucomatous therapy. Mean IOP was 14.5 ± 5.1 mmHg (median: 14 mm Hg; Q1:11; Q3:16; 95%CI:8,25) and 14.8 ± 4.6 mmHg (median: 14 mm Hg; Q1:12; Q3:17; 95%CI:8,28) in the right and left eyes, respectively. Higher IOP correlated (multivariable analysis; correlation coefficient r2:0.32) with female sex (P < 0.001), more sedentary lifestyle (P = 0.006), higher estimated CSFP (P < 0.001), higher total protein serum concentration (P < 0.001), stronger hand grip force (P = 0.01), thicker central cornea (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P = 0.01), absence of previous cataract surgery (P = 0.001), higher degree of pseudoexfoliation (P = 0.02, and thinner peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (P = 0.004). Using this that model, IOP reading enlarged by 0.22 mmHg (95% CI: 0.09, 0.35) for each increase in estimated CSFP by 1 mm Hg, by 0.03 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.02,0.05) for each thickening in central corneal thickness by 1 μm, by 0.56 mm Hg (95%CI: 0.13,1.00) for each axial elongation by 1 mm, and by 0.40 mmHg (95% CI: 0.06,0.74) for each increase in the degree of pseudoexfoliation, and it decreased by 0.40 mmHg (95% CI: 0.06,0.74) by cataract surgery.

Conclusions

In this study population aged 85+years, IOP readings showed similar relationships as in younger study populations, including positive associations with higher estimated CSFP and longer axial length and a negative association with cataract surgery.

Self-reported dual sensory impairment and related factors: a European population-based cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Data on population-based self-reported dual vision and hearing impairment are sparse in Europe. We aimed to investigate self-reported dual sensory impairment (DSI) in European population.

METHODS

A standardised questionnaire was used to collect medical and socio-economic data among individuals aged 15 years or more in 29 European countries. Individuals living in collective households or in institutions were excluded from the survey.

RESULTS

Among 296 677 individuals, the survey included 153 866 respondents aged 50 years old or more. The crude prevalence of DSI was of 7.54% (7.36-7.72). Among individuals aged 60 or more, 9.23% of men and 10.94% of women had DSI. Eastern and southern countries had a higher prevalence of DSI. Multivariable analyses showed that social isolation and poor self-rated health status were associated with DSI with ORs of 2.01 (1.77-2.29) and 2.33 (2.15-2.52), while higher income was associated with lower risk of DSI (OR of 0.83 (0.78-0.89). Considering country-level socioeconomic factors, Human Development Index explained almost 38% of the variance of age-adjusted prevalence of DSI.

CONCLUSION

There are important differences in terms of prevalence of DSI in Europe, depending on socioeconomic and medical factors. Prevention of DSI does represent an important challenge for maintaining quality of life in elderly population.

Central visual field damage in glaucoma eyes with choroidal microvasculature dropout with and without high axial myopia

PURPOSE

To characterise the relationship between a deep-layer microvasculature dropout (MvD) and central visual field (VF) damage in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients with and without high axial myopia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Seventy-one eyes (49 patients) with high axial myopia and POAG and 125 non-highly myopic POAG eyes (97 patients) were enrolled. Presence, area and angular circumference of juxtapapillary MvD were evaluated on optical coherence tomography angiography B-scans and en-face choroidal images.

RESULTS

Juxtapapillary MvD was detected more often in the highly myopic POAG eyes (43 eyes, 86%) than in the non-highly myopic eyes (73 eyes, 61.9%; p=0.002). In eyes with MvD, MvD area and angular circumference (95% CI) were significantly larger in the highly myopic eyes compared with the non-highly myopic eyes (area: (0.69 (0.40, 0.98) mm2 vs 0.31 (0.19, 0.42) mm2, p=0.011) and (angular circumference: 84.3 (62.9, 105.8) vs 74.5 (58.3, 90.9) degrees, p<0.001), respectively. 24-2 VF mean deviation (MD) was significantly worse in eyes with MvD compared with eyes without MvD in both groups (p<0.001). After adjusting for 24-2 MD VF, central VF defects were more frequently found in eyes with MvD compared with eyes without MvD (82.7% vs 60.9%, p<0.001). In multivariable analysis, higher intraocular pressure, worse 24-2 VF MD, longer axial length and greater MvD area and angular circumference were associated with worse 10-2 VF MD.

CONCLUSIONS

MvD was more prevalent and larger in POAG eyes with high myopia than in non-highly myopic POAG eyes. In both groups, eyes with MvD showed worse glaucoma severity and more central VF defects.

Prevalence and Associations of Peripheral Arterial Disease in China: The Beijing Eye Study

PURPOSE

To explore the prevalence and associations of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in China.

DESIGN

Population-based incidence estimate and cross-sectional study.

METHODS

The participants (n=3468) of the Beijing Eye Study underwent a detailed ophthalmologic and systemic examination including assessment of the ankle-brachial index (ABI). PAD was defined by an ABI of less than 0.9.

RESULTS

Blood pressure measurements of both arms and ankles were available for 1078 (31.1%) individuals. An ABI (mean: 1.09±0.11; median: 1.10; range: 0.25, 1.36) of <0.9 and <0.95 was found in 32 of 1078 participants (3.0%, 95% CI 2.0, 4.0) and 70 of 1078 individuals (6.5%, 95% CI 5.0, 8.0), respectively. Higher PAD prevalence (multivariable analysis) was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% CI 1.02, 1.15; P = .009), lower level of education (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43, 0.90; P = .01), lower quality of life (OR 0.67, 95% CI 1.11, 2.32), higher glucose serum concentration (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.09, 1.58; P = .006), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96, 0.99; P = .04), and higher prevalence of retinal vein occlusions (OR 7.30, 95% CI 1.63, 32.6; P = .009). PAD prevalence was not associated with the prevalence of glaucoma (P = .53) (open-angle glaucoma: P = .42; angle-closure glaucoma: P = .57) and age-related macular degeneration (any AMD: P = .39; early AMD: P = .31; intermediate AMD: P = .92; late AMD: P = .99), prevalence (P = .26) and stage (P = .07) of diabetic retinopathy, prevalence (P = .38) and degree (P = .68) of nuclear cataract, prevalence (P = .39) and degree (P = .72) of cortical cataract, prevalence of subcapsular cataract (P = .86), prevalence of pseudoexfoliation (P = .65), intraocular pressure (P = .50), axial length (P = .56), and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (P = .68).

CONCLUSIONS

The PAD prevalence (3.0%, 95% CI 2.0%, 4.0%) was relatively low in this cohort from rural and urban Beijing, with older age, lower educational level, lower quality of life, higher glucose serum concentration, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, and higher prevalence of retinal vein occlusions as main associated factors.

Bruch's membrane and Brücke's muscle in the pars plana region

PURPOSE

To examine Bruch's membrane (BM) in association with the longitudinal part of the ciliary muscle (LPCM) in the pars plana region.

METHODS

Using light microscopy, we histomorphometrically assessed BM and the LPCM in the pars plana region.

RESULTS

The histomorphometric study included 51 eyes (51 patients; mean age: 60.8 ± 15.0 years; axial length: 26.0 ± 3.3 mm; range: 21.0-36.0 mm). The LPCM (total length: 4.60 ± 1.10 mm) ended 1.15 ± 0.56 mm anterior to the ora serrata. Within the pars plana region, the LPCM (length: 2.58 ± 0.98 mm) had direct contact with BM for 1.95 ± 0.99 mm (71.1 ± 18.4% of the BM undersurface), while a capillary layer was interposed between the BM and the LPCM for 0.70 ± 0.40 mm (29.0 ± 18.4%). In the pars plana region free of LPCM close to the ora serrata, the percentage of BM covered by the capillary layer was higher than in the pars plana region containing the LPCM (63.0 ± 42.1% vs. 29.0 ± 18.4%; p < 0.001). At the LPCM end, BM was in direct contact with a collagenous tissue from the LPCM and was focally thickened as compared to BM with an underlying capillary layer (9.5 ± 5.3 μm vs. 4.3 ± 1.2 μm; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The direct contact of BM with the LPCM in the pars plana in association with focal BM thickening at the LPCM end suggests an insertion of LPCM on the BM. Taking into account the biomechanical strength of BM, it may imply a functional unit of the LPCM with BM in the process of accommodation with a secondary movement of the posterior BM and tertiary thickening of the subfoveal choroidal space.

Associations between axial length, corneal refractive power and lens thickness in children and adolescents: The Ural Children Eye Study

PURPOSE

To assess relationships between ocular biometric parameters in dependence of age and sex in children and adolescents.

METHODS

In the Ural Children Eye Study, a school-based cohort study, 4933 children underwent an ophthalmological and general examination.

RESULTS

Complete biometric measurements were available for 4406 (89.3%) children. Cycloplegic refractive error (mean: -0.87 ± 1.73 diopters (D); median: -0.38 D; range: -19.75 D to +11.25 D) increased (multivariable analysis; r2  = 0.73) with shorter axial length (β: -0.99; non-standardized regression coefficient B: -1.64; 95% CI: -1.68, -1.59) and lower corneal refractive power (β: -0.55; B: -0.67; 95% CI: -0.70, -0.64), in addition to higher cylindrical refractive error (β: 0.10; B: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.27, 0.41), thinner lens (β: -0.11; -0.85; 95% CI: -1.02, -0.69) and male sex (β: 0.15; B: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.57). In univariate analysis, decrease in refractive error with older age was more significant (β: -0.38 vs. β: -0.25) and steeper (B: -0.22 (95% CI: -0.24, -0.20) vs. B: -0.13 (95% CI: -0.15, -0.11)) in girls than boys, particularly for an age of 11+ years. Axial length increased with older age (steeper for age <11  years) (B: 0.22 (95% CI: 0.18, 0.25) vs. 0.07 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.09)). In multivariable analysis, axial length increased with lower refractive error (β: -0.77; B: -0.42; 95% CI: -0.43, -0.40) and lower corneal refractive power (β: -0.54; B: -0.39; 95% CI: -0.41, -0.38), in addition to older age (β: 0.04; B: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03), male sex (β: 0.13; B: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.32), higher cylindrical refractive error (β: 0.05; B: 0.09; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.14) and thinner lens (β: -0.14; B: -0.62; 95% CI: -0.72, -0.51). The axial length/corneal curvature (AL/CR) ratio increased until the age of 14 years (β: 0.34; B: 0.017; 95% CI: 0.016, 0.019; p < 0001), and then became independent of age. The AL/CR ratio increased (r2  = 0.78) mostly with higher corneal refractive power (β: 0.25; B: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.02; p < 0.001), lower refractive error (β: -0.75; B: -0.05; 95% CI: -0.05, -0.05; p < 0.001), thinner lens thickness (β: -01.6; B: -0.09; 95% CI: -0.10, -0.08; p < 0.001) and older age (β: 0.16; B: 0.006; 95% CI: 0.005, 0.007; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this multiethnic group of school children in Russia, the age-related increase in myopic refractive error was more significant and steeper in girls, particularly for the age group of 11+ years. Determinants of higher myopic refractive error were longer axial length, higher corneal refractive power, lower cylindrical refractive error, thicker lens and female sex.

X-chromosome and kidney function: evidence from a multi-trait genetic analysis of 908,697 individuals reveals sex-specific and sex-differential findings in genes regulated by androgen response elements

X-chromosomal genetic variants are understudied but can yield valuable insights into sexually dimorphic human traits and diseases. We performed a sex-stratified cross-ancestry X-chromosome-wide association meta-analysis of seven kidney-related traits (n = 908,697), identifying 23 loci genome-wide significantly associated with two of the traits: 7 for uric acid and 16 for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), including four novel eGFR loci containing the functionally plausible prioritized genes ACSL4, CLDN2, TSPAN6 and the female-specific DRP2. Further, we identified five novel sex-interactions, comprising male-specific effects at FAM9B and AR/EDA2R, and three sex-differential findings with larger genetic effect sizes in males at DCAF12L1 and MST4 and larger effect sizes in females at HPRT1. All prioritized genes in loci showing significant sex-interactions were located next to androgen response elements (ARE). Five ARE genes showed sex-differential expressions. This study contributes new insights into sex-dimorphisms of kidney traits along with new prioritized gene targets for further molecular research.

Intraocular cetuximab: Safety and effect on axial elongation in young Guinea pigs with lens-induced myopization

This study aimed to examine the intraocular tolerability of the epidermal growth factor receptor antibody cetuximab, when applied intravitreally, and its effect on axial elongation. Guinea pigs aged 2-3 weeks were subjected to bilateral plano glasses and bilateral lens-induced myopization (LIM) as a single procedure for group I (n = 8) and group II (n = 8), respectively. In the animals of group III (n = 8), group IV (n = 8), and group V (n = 8), the right eyes of the animals, in addition to LIM, received four weekly intravitreal injections of cetuximab (Erbitux®) in doses of 6.25 μg, 12.5 μg, and 25 μg, respectively. As controls, the left eyes, in addition to LIM, received corresponding intraocular injections of phosphate-buffered saline. The animals underwent regular ophthalmoscopic examinations and biometry for axial length measurements. With increasing doses of cetuximab, the inter-eye difference in axial elongation (at study end, left eyes minus right eyes) were significantly the smallest in group I (0.00 ± 0.02 mm) and group II (-0.01 ± 0.02 mm), they were larger in group III (0.04 ± 0.04 mm) and group IV (0.10 ± 0.03 mm), and they were the largest in group V (0.11 ± 0.01 mm). The inter-eye difference in axial elongation enlarged (P < 0.001) with the number of injections applied. Retinal thickness at the posterior pole (right eyes) was significantly thicker in group V than in group II (P < 0.01). The density of apoptotic cells (visualized by TUNEL-staining) did not vary significantly between any of the groups (all P > 0.05). The results suggest that intravitreal injections of cetuximab in young guinea pigs with LIM resulted in a reduction in axial elongation in a dose-dependent and number of treatment-dependent manner. Intraocular toxic effects, such as intraocular inflammation, retinal thinning, or an increased density of apoptotic cells in the retina, were not observed in association with the intravitreally applied cetuximab.

Topical Atropine for Childhood Myopia Control: The Atropine Treatment Long-Term Assessment Study

Importance

Clinical trial results of topical atropine eye drops for childhood myopia control have shown inconsistent outcomes across short-term studies, with little long-term safety or other outcomes reported.

Objective

To report the long-term safety and outcomes of topical atropine for childhood myopia control.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective, double-masked observational study of the Atropine for the Treatment of Myopia (ATOM) 1 and ATOM2 randomized clinical trials took place at 2 single centers and included adults reviewed in 2021 through 2022 from the ATOM1 study (atropine 1% vs placebo; 1999 through 2003) and the ATOM2 study (atropine 0.01% vs 0.1% vs 0.5%; 2006 through 2012).

Main Outcome Measures

Change in cycloplegic spherical equivalent (SE) with axial length (AL); incidence of ocular complications.

Results

Among the original 400 participants in each original cohort, the study team evaluated 71 of 400 ATOM1 adult participants (17.8% of original cohort; study age, mean [SD] 30.5 [1.2] years; 40.6% female) and 158 of 400 ATOM2 adult participants (39.5% of original cohort; study age, mean [SD], 24.5 [1.5] years; 42.9% female) whose baseline characteristics (SE and AL) were representative of the original cohort. In this study, evaluating ATOM1 participants, the mean (SD) SE and AL were -5.20 (2.46) diopters (D), 25.87 (1.23) mm and -6.00 (1.63) D, 25.90 (1.21) mm in the 1% atropine-treated and placebo groups, respectively (difference of SE, 0.80 D; 95% CI, -0.25 to 1.85 D; P = .13; difference of AL, -0.03 mm; 95% CI, -0.65 to 0.58 mm; P = .92). In ATOM2 participants, the mean (SD) SE and AL was -6.40 (2.21) D; 26.25 (1.34) mm; -6.81 (1.92) D, 26.28 (0.99) mm; and -7.19 (2.87) D, 26.31 (1.31) mm in the 0.01%, 0.1%, and 0.5% atropine groups, respectively. There was no difference in the 20-year incidence of cataract/lens opacities, myopic macular degeneration, or parapapillary atrophy (β/γ zone) comparing the 1% atropine-treated group vs the placebo group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among approximately one-quarter of the original participants, use of short-term topical atropine eye drops ranging from 0.01% to 1.0% for a duration of 2 to 4 years during childhood was not associated with differences in final refractive errors 10 to 20 years after treatment. There was no increased incidence of treatment or myopia-related ocular complications in the 1% atropine-treated group vs the placebo group. These findings may affect the design of future clinical trials, as further studies are required to investigate the duration and concentration of atropine for childhood myopia control.

Prevalence and Cause of Loss of Visual Acuity and Visual Field in Highly Myopic Eyes: The Beijing Eye Study

PURPOSE

To explore the prevalence and causes of loss of visual acuity and visual field in highly myopic eyes.

DESIGN

Population-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

4439 subjects of the Beijing Eye Study underwent ophthalmological and systemic examinations including frequency doubling technology perimetry.

METHODS

High myopia was defined by a refractive error of ≤-6 diopters (D) or axial length >26.0 mm.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of vision impairment causes.

RESULTS

212 highly myopic eyes from 154 participants were included with a mean age of 56.2 ± 9.6 years, a mean refractive error of -9.87 ± 3.70 D and a mean axial length of 27.2 ± 1.3 mm. We observed moderate/severe vision impairment (MSVI) in 40 eyes (18.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.6-24.2) and blindness in 10 eyes (4.7%; 95% CI, 1.8-7.6). Primary causes for MSVI and blindness were myopic macular degeneration (MMD) (29/50; 58%), age-related macular degeneration (1/50; 2%), and branch macular retinal vein occlusion (1/50; 2%). Secondary causes were MMD (4/50; 8%) and optic nerve atrophy (14/50, 28%), further differentiated into non-glaucomatous optic atrophy (NGOA) (9/50; 18%) and glaucomatous optic atrophy (GOA) (5/50; 10%). Prevalence of MMD as vision impairment cause increased significantly from 1/61 (1.6%) in the refractive error group of -6.00 to ≥-7.00 D, to 16/25 (64%) in the group of <-15.0 D. Higher MMD prevalence correlated with higher myopic refractive error (P < 0.001) and increased likelihood of concomitant optic neuropathy (P < 0.001). Similarly, prevalence of optic neuropathy as vision impairment cause increased from 0/61 (0%) in the refractive error group of -6.00 D to ≥-7.00 D, to 9/25 (36%) in the group of <-15.0 D. Higher optic neuropathy prevalence correlated with more myopic refraction (P < 0.001) and older age (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based recruited cohort of highly myopic patients, optic neuropathy accounted for vision impairment in 9.0% eyes, which was lower than the prevalence of MMD as vision impairment cause (18.9%). Notably, optic neuropathy became a significant contributor to vision impairment in more advanced high myopia, reaching 36% in the group with refractive error of <-15.0 D.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Arterial hypertension and retinal layer thickness: the Beijing Eye Study

PURPOSE

To investigate relationships between blood pressure and the thickness of single retinal layers in the macula.

METHODS

Participants of the population-based Beijing Eye Study, free of retinal or optic nerve disease, underwent medical and ophthalmological examinations including optical coherence tomographic examination of the macula. Applying a multiple-surface segmentation solution, we automatically segmented the retina into its various layers.

RESULTS

The study included 2237 participants (mean age 61.8±8.4 years, range 50-93 years). Mean thicknesses of the retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL), ganglion cell layer (GCL), inner plexiform layer, inner nuclear layer (INL), outer plexiform layer, outer nuclear layer/external limiting membrane, ellipsoid zone, photoreceptor outer segments (POS) and retinal pigment epithelium-Bruch membrane were 31.1±2.3 µm, 39.7±3.5 µm, 38.4±3.3 µm, 34.8±2.0 µm, 28.1±3.0 µm, 79.2±7.3 µm, 22.9±0.6 µm, 19.2±3.3 µm and 20.7±1.4 µm, respectively. In multivariable analysis, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were associated with thinner GCL and thicker INL, after adjusting for age, sex and axial length (all p<0.0056). Higher SBP was additionally associated with thinner POS and higher DBP with thinner RNFL. For an elevation of SBP/DBP by 10 mm Hg, the RNFL, GCL, INL and POS changed by 2.0, 3.0, 1.5 and 2.0 µm, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Thickness of RNFL, GCL and POS was inversely and INL thickness was positively associated with higher blood pressure, while the thickness of the other retinal layers was not significantly correlated with blood pressure. The findings may be helpful for refinement of the morphometric detection of retinal diseases.

Myopia management algorithm. Annexe to the article titled Update and guidance on management of myopia. European Society of Ophthalmology in cooperation with International Myopia Institute

Myopia is becoming increasingly common in young generations all over the world, and it is predicted to become the most common cause of blindness and visual impairment in later life in the near future. Because myopia can cause serious complications and vision loss, it is critical to create and prescribe effective myopia treatment solutions that can help prevent or delay the onset and progression of myopia. The scientific understanding of myopia's causes, genetic background, environmental conditions, and various management techniques, including therapies to prevent or postpone its development and slow its progression, is rapidly expanding. However, some significant information gaps exist on this subject, making it difficult to develop an effective intervention plan. As with the creation of this present algorithm, a compromise is to work on best practices and reach consensus among a wide number of specialists. The quick rise in information regarding myopia management may be difficult for the busy eye care provider, but it necessitates a continuing need to evaluate new research and implement it into daily practice. To assist eye care providers in developing these strategies, an algorithm has been proposed that covers all aspects of myopia mitigation and management. The algorithm aims to provide practical assistance in choosing and developing an effective myopia management strategy tailored to the individual child. It incorporates the latest research findings and covers a wide range of modalities, from primary, secondary, and tertiary myopia prevention to interventions that reduce the progression of myopia.

High Myopia Normative Database of Peripapillary Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness to Detect Myopic Glaucoma in a Chinese Population

PURPOSE

To develop and validate the performance of a high myopia (HM)-specific normative database of peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) thickness in differentiating HM from highly myopic glaucoma (HMG).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional multicenter study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1367 Chinese participants (2325 eyes) with nonpathologic HM or HMG were included from 4 centers. After quality control, 1108 eyes from 694 participants with HM were included in the normative database; 459 eyes from 408 participants (323 eyes with HM and 136 eyes with HMG) and 322 eyes from 197 participants (131 eyes with HM and 191 eyes with HMG) were included in the internal and external validation sets, respectively. Only HMG eyes with an intraocular pressure > 21 mmHg were included.

METHODS

The pRNFL thickness was measured with swept-source (SS) OCT. Four strategies of pRNFL-specified values were examined, including global and quadrantic pRNFL thickness below the lowest fifth or the lowest first percentile of the normative database.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the HM-specific normative database for detecting HMG.

RESULTS

Setting the fifth percentile of the global pRNFL thickness as the threshold, using the HM-specific normative database, we achieved an accuracy of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.95) and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.89), and, using the first percentile as the threshold, we acheived an accuracy of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.88) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.75) in detecting HMG in the internal and external validation sets, respectively. The fifth percentile of the global pRNFL thickness achieved high sensitivities of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68-0.81) and specificities of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.99-1.00) and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.00) in the internal and external validation datasets, respectively. Compared with the built-in database of the OCT device, the HM-specific normative database showed a higher sensitivity and specificity than the corresponding pRNFL thickness below the fifth or first percentile (P < 0.001 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

The HM-specific normative database is more capable of detecting HMG eyes than the SS OCT built-in database, which may be an effective tool for differential diagnosis between HMG and HM.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Association of lipid-lowering drugs and antidiabetic drugs with age-related macular degeneration: a meta-analysis in Europeans

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To investigate the association of commonly used systemic medications with prevalent age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in the general population.

METHODS

We included 38 694 adults from 14 population-based and hospital-based studies from the European Eye Epidemiology consortium. We examined associations between the use of systemic medications and any prevalent AMD as well as any late AMD using multivariable logistic regression modelling per study and pooled results using random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Between studies, mean age ranged from 61.5±7.1 to 82.6±3.8 years and prevalence ranged from 12.1% to 64.5% and from 0.5% to 35.5% for any and late AMD, respectively. In the meta-analysis of fully adjusted multivariable models, lipid-lowering drugs (LLD) and antidiabetic drugs were associated with lower prevalent any AMD (OR 0.85, 95% CI=0.79 to 0.91 and OR 0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.91). We found no association with late AMD or with any other medication.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates a potential beneficial effect of LLD and antidiabetic drug use on prevalence of AMD across multiple European cohorts. Our findings support the importance of metabolic processes in the multifactorial aetiology of AMD.

Diabetic Retinopathy and Chronic Kidney Disease: Associations and Comorbidities in a Large Diabetic Population - The Tongren Health Care Study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the study was to investigate associations between diabetic retinopathy (DR) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (TD2).

METHODS

The participants of the cross-sectional, community-based Tongren Health Care Study underwent a detailed medical and ophthalmological examination. We defined TD2 by a fasting plasma glucose concentration of ≥7.0 mmol/L or a medical history. CKD was classified as either reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <60 mL/min/1.73 mm2 or presence of albuminuria. DR was assessed using color fundus photographs.

RESULTS

Out of 62,217 participants of the Tongren Health Care Study, 5,103 (8.2%) patients had TD2. The prevalence of DR was 12.8% (95% CI, 11.8%, 13.7%), CKD was 13.3% (95% CI, 12.4%, 14.3%), and the subtypes of CKD including reduced eGFR and albuminuria was 4.6% (95% CI, 4.2%, 5.1%) and 10.1% (95% CI, 9.3%, 10.9%), respectively. DR was detectable in 21.0% of the patients with CKD, while CKD was present in 20.9% of the DR patients. Higher DR prevalence was associated with higher prevalence of albuminuria and reduced eGFR (both p < 0.05). Factors independently associated with the presence of CKD instead of DR were older age (p < 0.001, OR = 1.05), a higher body mass index (p < 0.001, OR = 1.14), a higher serum concentration of triglycerides (p < 0.001, OR = 1.26), and a lower blood glucose (p < 0.001, OR = 0.93). Having hypertension was additionally associated with the presence of reduced eGFR as compared with DR (p = 0.005, OR = 4.47).

CONCLUSIONS

TD2 patients of older age and with higher body mass index, hypertension, and dyslipidemia had a higher probability of being affected by CKD rather than DR, while those with a higher blood glucose level were more prone to DR than CKD.

Gene-educational attainment interactions in a multi-population genome-wide meta-analysis identify novel lipid loci

Introduction: Educational attainment, widely used in epidemiologic studies as a surrogate for socioeconomic status, is a predictor of cardiovascular health outcomes. Methods: A two-stage genome-wide meta-analysis of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels was performed while accounting for gene-educational attainment interactions in up to 226,315 individuals from five population groups. We considered two educational attainment variables: "Some College" (yes/no, for any education beyond high school) and "Graduated College" (yes/no, for completing a 4-year college degree). Genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (p < 1 × 10-6) variants were identified in Stage 1 (in up to 108,784 individuals) through genome-wide analysis, and those variants were followed up in Stage 2 studies (in up to 117,531 individuals). Results: In combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2, we identified 18 novel lipid loci (nine for LDL, seven for HDL, and two for TG) by two degree-of-freedom (2 DF) joint tests of main and interaction effects. Four loci showed significant interaction with educational attainment. Two loci were significant only in cross-population analyses. Several loci include genes with known or suggested roles in adipose (FOXP1, MBOAT4, SKP2, STIM1, STX4), brain (BRI3, FILIP1, FOXP1, LINC00290, LMTK2, MBOAT4, MYO6, SENP6, SRGAP3, STIM1, TMEM167A, TMEM30A), and liver (BRI3, FOXP1) biology, highlighting the potential importance of brain-adipose-liver communication in the regulation of lipid metabolism. An investigation of the potential druggability of genes in identified loci resulted in five gene targets shown to interact with drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration, including genes with roles in adipose and brain tissue. Discussion: Genome-wide interaction analysis of educational attainment identified novel lipid loci not previously detected by analyses limited to main genetic effects.

Prevalence and Associations of Keratoconus Among Children, Adults, and Elderly in the Population-Based Ural Eye Studies

PURPOSE

To estimate prevalence and associations of keratoconus in populations in Russia with an age from childhood to seniority.

METHODS

The study population consisted of the cohorts of 3 population-based studies performed in urban and rural areas within the same geographical region in Bashkortostan/Russia: the Ural Children Eye Study (UCES; age = 6-18 y; n = 4890), the Ural Eye and Medical Study (UEMS; age = >40 y; n = 5314), and the Ural Very Old Study (UVOS; age = >85 y; n = 651). Based on Scheimflug imaging, keratoconus was defined by a keratometric reading of ≥48 diopters (D) in any eye.

RESULTS

The mean maximal and minimal corneal refractive power increased from the UCES (43.58 ± 1.50 D and 42.70 ± 1.42 D, respectively) to the UEMS (44.26 ± 1.70 D and 43.61 ± 1.76 D, respectively) and to the UVOS (45.1 ± 1.72 D and 43.98 ± 1.68 D, respectively). Correspondingly, keratoconus prevalence increased from the UCES (42/4890; 0.086%; 95% CI = 0.060, 0.112) to the UEMS (112/5314; 2.11%; 95% CI = 1.72, 2.49) and to the UVOS (42/651; 6.45%; 95% CI = 4.56, 8.34). In the UCES, higher keratoconus prevalence was associated (multivariable analysis) with higher birth order [odds ratio (OR) = 2.34; 95% CI = 1.32, 4.15; P = 0.004], lower birth weight (OR = 0.99; 95% CI = 0.99, 0.99; P < 0.001), and shorter axial length (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.08, 0.30; P < 0.001). In the UEMS, keratoconus prevalence correlated with shorter axial length (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.10, 0.23; P < 0.001), larger corneal volume (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.09, 1.25; P = 0.001), thicker lens (OR = 2.27; 95% CI = 1.06, 5.28; P = 0.04), cortical cataract degree (OR = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.04; P = 0.01), and higher stage of age-related macular degeneration (OR = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.09, 2.51; P = 0.02). In the UVOS, keratoconus prevalence correlated with lower educational level (OR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.71, 0.99; P = 0.04) and lower dynamometric handgrip force (OR = 0.92; 95% CI = 0.88, 0.97; P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study on multiethnic groups from Russia, keratoconus prevalence increased from the pediatric group (0.09%) to the adult group (2.11%) and seniority group (6.45%), correlated mostly with biometric ocular parameters and was in all age groups statistically independent of most systemic parameters.

Parapapillary gamma zone associated with increased peripapillary scleral bowing: the Beijing Eye Study 2011

AIMS

To investigate the association between the backward configuration of the peripapillary sclera (PPS), measured as PPS angle (PPSA), and presence and extent of parapapillary gamma zone.

METHODS

Out of the population-based Beijing Eye Study 2011, we randomly selected individuals free of optic nerve and retinal diseases. With Spectralis optical coherence tomography, we measured gamma zone (zone free of Bruch's membrane (BM)) and determined the PPSA, defined as the angle between the anterior scleral surface lines from both sides of the optic nerve head (ONH).

RESULTS

The study included 678 individuals with age of 59.5±7.6 years (range: 50-90) and axial length of 23.5±1.3 mm (20.9-29.2). Gamma zone was more prevalent in eyes with larger PPSA (p=0.006) after adjustment for axial length (p<0.001) and BM opening area (p<0.001). Gamma zone width was positively associated with PPSA, axial length and BM opening area (all p<0.001) in multivariable analysis. Circular gamma zone was accompanied with larger PPSA as compared with focal gamma zone (19.9°±7.2° vs 6.3°±5.3°, p<0.001). Focal temporal gamma and focal inferior gamma had similar mean PPSA (p=0.69). However, the horizontal PPSA was significantly larger than the vertical PPSA in inferior gamma (6.9°±6.3° vs 4.7°±6.6°; p=0.005), while they were comparable in temporal gamma (6.1°±5.8° vs 6.3°±6.4°; p=0.073).

CONCLUSIONS

A more backward bowing of the PPS was linearly and spatially associated with the presence, size and extent of gamma zone. It suggested that the BM and the sclera were closely related in participating the biomechanical behaviour of the ONH.

Prevalence and Associations of Nonglaucomatous Optic Nerve Atrophy in High Myopia: The Ural Eye and Medical Study

PURPOSE

To assess the prevalence of nonglaucomatous optic nerve atrophy (NGOA) in highly myopic individuals.

DESIGN

Population-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

The Ural Eye and Medical Study included 5899 (80.5%) of 7328 eligible individuals (80.5%).

METHODS

Nonglaucomatous optic nerve atrophy, graded into 5 arbitrary stages, was characterized by decreased visibility of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) on photographs, neuroretinal rim pallor, abnormally thin retinal arteriole diameter, and abnormally thin peripapillary RNFL as measured by OCT.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Nonglaucomatous optic nerve atrophy prevalence and degree.

RESULTS

Of 5709 participants (96.9%) with axial length measurements, 130 individuals (2.3%) were highly myopic, of whom 116 individuals (89.2%; age, 57.8 ± 11.1 years; axial length, 27.0 ± 1.2 mm) had available fundus photographs and OCT images and were included into the study. Nonglaucomatous optic nerve atrophy prevalence was 34/116 individuals (29.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 21.0-38.0), and mean NGOA degree in eyes with NGOA was 1.7 ± 1.0 arbitrary units. Higher NGOA degree correlated (multivariable analysis; regression coefficient, r2 = 0.59) with longer axial length (β, 0.22; P = 0.007), wider temporal parapapillary γ zone width (β, 0.50; P < 0.001), higher prevalence of diabetes (β, 0.20; P = 0.005), and higher systolic blood pressure (β, 0.15; P = 0.03). Higher NGOA prevalence was associated with longer axial length (odds ratio [OR], 7.45; 95% CI, 2.15-25.7), wider temporal parapapillary γ zone (OR, 6.98; 95% CI, 2.61-18.7), and higher systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

In this ethnically mixed population from Russia with an age of 40 years or more, high axial myopia showed a relatively high prevalence of NGOA, increasing with longer axial length and wider temporal parapapillary γ zone. For each 1 mm of axial elongation and γ zone widening, the odds for NGOA increased 7.45-fold and 6.98-fold, respectively. The axial elongation-associated and γ zone-related increase in the distance between the retinal ganglion cells and the optic disc may lead to a lengthening and stretching of the retinal ganglion cell axons and may be of importance pathogenetically. In highly myopic eyes, NGOA may be a reason for visual field and central visual acuity loss, unexplainable by myopic macular pathologic features.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Reduction of experimental ocular axial elongation by neuregulin-1 antibody

Background

Since the mechanisms underlying myopic axial elongation have remained unclear, we examined the effect of neuregulin-1 (NRG-1), an epidermal growth factor family member, on myopic axial elongation.

Methods

The guinea pigs aged two to three weeks were subjected to bilateral negative lens-induced axial elongation and received weekly intravitreal injections into their right eyes of NRG-1 antibody (doses: 5 μg, n = 8; 10 μg, n = 8, 20 μg, n = 9) or of NRG-1 (doses: 0.05 μg, n = 8; 0.01 μg, n = 9; 0.2 μg, n = 8), underwent only bilateral negative lens-induced axial elongation (myopia control group, n = 10), or underwent no intervention (control group, n = 10). The contralateral eyes received corresponding intravitreal phosphate-buffered solution injections. One week after the last injection, the guinea pigs were sacrificed, the eyeballs were removed, the thicknesses of the retina and sclera were histologically examined, the expression of NRG-1 and downstream signal transduction pathway members (ERK1/2 and PI3K/AKT) and the mRNA expression of NRG-1 in the retina was assessed.

Results

The inter-eye difference in axial length at study end increased (p < 0.001) from the normal control group (-0.02 ± 0.09 mm) and the myopia control group (-0.01 ± 0.09 mm) to the low-dose NRG-1 antibody group (-0.11 ± 0.05 mm), medium-dose NRG-1 antibody group (-0.17 ± 0.07 mm), and high-dose NRG-1 antibody group (-0.28 ± 0.06 mm). The relative expression of NRG-1, ERK1/2, and PI3K/AKT in the retina decreased in a dose-dependent manner from the myopia control group to the NRG-1 antibody groups and the normal control group. The relative NRG-1 mRNA expression in the retina was higher (p < 0.01) in the myopic control group than in the NRG-1 antibody groups and normal control group. Scleral and retinal thickness decreased from the normal control group to the NRG-1 antibody groups to the myopic control group. After intraocular injection of NRG-1 protein, there was a slight dose-dependent increase in the difference in axial length between the right and left eye, however not statistically significantly, from the normal control group (-0.02 ± 0.09 mm) to the high-dose NRG-1 protein group (0.03 ± 0.03 mm; p = 0.12).

Conclusion

Intravitreal NRG-1 antibody application was dose-dependently and time-dependently associated with a reduction in negative lens-induced axial elongation in young guinea pigs.

Prevalence of depression, anxiety and suicidal ideas and associated factors, in particular sensory impairments, in a population of Bashkortostan in Russia

To assess prevalence and associated factors of depression, anxiety and suicidal ideas in populations from Russia, we conducted in rural and urban regions in Bashkortostan/Russia two population-based studies (Ural Eye and Medical Study (UEMS), performed from 2015 to 2017; Ural Very Old Study (UVOS), performed from 2017 to 2020) which included participants aged 40 + years and 85 + years, respectively. Depression was assessed using the questionnaire of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale Scoresheet, and anxiety was examined applying the State Trait Inventory Anxiety Test. Suicidal ideas were explored by the question whether suicide had previously been thought of or attempted (and if yes, for what reasons). In the statistical analysis we assessed the mean of the main outcome parameter (depression score and anxiety score) and searched for associations between these parameters and other parameters in univariable and multivariable regression analyses. In the UEMS with 5893 individuals (age: 59.0 ± 10.7 years; range 40-94 years), higher depression score and anxiety score were associated (multivariable analysis) with more marked hearing loss (beta: 0.07; P < 0.001, and beta: 0.07; P < 0.0012, respectively) and worse visual acuity (beta: 0.04; P = 0.02; and beta: 0.03; P = 0.03, resp.), in addition to female sex, Russian ethnicity, lower educational level, less alcohol consumption, weaker hand grip strength, less physical activity, and higher prevalence of dry eye disease. Attempted suicide was reported by 88 (1.5%; 95% CI 1.2, 1.8) participants. Having thought of suicide within the last 6 months was reported by 63 (1.1%) individuals. Out of 1491 UVOS participants (age: 88.2 ± 2.8 years; range 85-100 years) with a mean depression score of 20.0 ± 10.3 (median 18; range 0-58), 916 (61.4%; 95% CI 59.0, 63.9) fulfilled the definition of depression (depressions core ≥ 16). Higher depression score and higher anxiety score correlated (multivariable analysis) with higher hearing loss score (beta: 0.07; P = 0.02, and beta: 0.08; P = 0.009, resp.) and worse visual acuity (beta: 0.13; P < 0.001, and beta: 0.09; P = 0.007, resp.), in addition to female sex, urban region, less physical activity, less fruit intake, and lower cognitive function. Overall, 15 (1.0%; 95% CI 0.50, 1.50) individuals had attempted or thought of suicide. In conclusion, the findings suggest that besides female sex, lower level of education and lower cognitive function, it was sensory impairment, namely vision and hearing impairment, which belonged to the determinants of depression and anxiety in these populations from Russia.

Ciliary body size in chronic angle-closure glaucoma

To examine the size of the ciliary body stroma (CBS) in dependence of the morphology of the anterior chamber angle in enucleated human eyes, we histomorphometrically examined human enucleated eyes. The study included 107 eyes (with a mean axial length of 25.1 ± 2.8 mm (range 21.0-36.0 mm). The anterior chamber angle was open in 68 eyes and it was closed and endothelialized in 39 eyes. The maximal CBS width (541 ± 210 µm versus 59 ± 179 µm; P < 0.001) and the minimal CBS width (214 ± 107 µm versus 17 ± 55 µm; P < 0.001) and maximal ciliary muscle height (593 ± 557 µm versus 293 ± 111 µm; P = 0.001) were significantly smaller in the angle-closure group than in the open-angle group. Maximal CBS width increased with presence of an open anterior chamber angle (beta: 0.82; B: 517; 95% CI 435, 599; P < 0.001) and longer axial length (beta: 0.17; B: 18.2; 95% CI 4.2, 32.2; P = 0.01). Minimal CBS width increased with the presence of an open anterior chamber angle (beta: 0.48; B: 131; 95% CI 80.4, 181; P < 0.001) and a larger maximal ciliary muscle height (beta: 0.33; B: 0.28; 95% CI 0.12, 0.44; P = 0.001). Maximal ciliary muscle height correlated with the maximal CBS height (beta: 0.35; B: 0.53; 95% CI 0.25, 0.81; P < 0.001). The findings suggest that the CBS size is markedly smaller in eyes with a chronically closed endothelialized anterior chamber angle than in eyes with open angles. The tightening of the angle in eyes with angle-closure may prevent the access of aqueous humor not only to the trabecular meshwork but also to the ciliary body and may reduce the uveoscleral or uveovortex outflow pathway.

The impact of bilateral brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity difference on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

Background

This study aims to investigate the association between an elevated bilateral pulse wave velocity difference (BPWVD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality.

Methods

This study included a total of 38,356 participants. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between high BPWVD and the increased risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

A total of 1,213 cases of CVDs were identified over a mean duration of 6.19 years, including 886 cases of cerebral infarction (CI), 105 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 222 cases of myocardial infarction (MI), along with 1,182 cases of all-cause mortality. The median BPWVD was 42 cm/s (19-80 cm/s). After adjusting for all confounders and baseline brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV), our analysis revealed a significant correlation between a higher risk of CVDs, MI, and all-cause mortality with an increase in BPWVD per standard deviation. HRs (95% confidence interval) were found to be 1.06 (1.01-1.11), 1.11 (1.02-1.21), and 1.07 (1.04-1.10), respectively. Among the participants with higher baPWV on the left side, the HRs (95% confidence interval) were 1.08 (1.02-1.14) for CVDs, 1.27 (1.10-1.46) for incident ICH, 1.16 (1.00-1.24) for incident MI, and 1.10 (1.07-1.15) for all-cause mortality, for per standard deviation increase in BPWVD.

Conclusions

Our findings reveal a significant correlation between elevated BPWVD and the risks of developing CVDs and all-cause mortality. This highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating BPWVD as a means of detecting individuals at risk for CVDs and mortality.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Hand grip strength and ocular associations: the Ural Eye and Medical Study

PURPOSE

To explore the associations between hand grip strength (HGS) and ocular parameters and diseases.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Participants of the Ural Eye and Medical Study, including 5899 (80.5%) out of 7328 eligible individuals aged 40+ years, underwent systemic and ophthalmological examinations including dynamometric HGS measurement.

RESULTS

The study included 5381 (90.4%) individuals (age: 58.6±10.6 years; range: 40-94 years) with HGS measurements. Higher HGS (mean: 30.6±11.7 dekaNewton) correlated (multivariable analysis) with better visual acuity (beta: 0.02, p=0.02), longer ocular axial length (beta: 0.03, p=0.003), higher intraocular pressure (beta: 0.03, p=0.001), thicker peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (beta: 0.03, p=0.001) and lower prevalence of diabetic retinopathy (beta: -0.03, p=0.007), after adjusting for younger age, male sex, Russian ethnicity, higher body height and waist to hip ratio, higher educational level, higher physical total score, lower smoking package years, higher serum concentration of haemoglobin, higher prothrombin index, lower leucocyte cell count, lower prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, lower depression score and lower prevalence of arthritis. In the model, HGS was not correlated with prevalence of nuclear cataract (p=0.38), cortical cataract (p=0.67), subcapsular posterior cataract (p=0.50), open-angle glaucoma (p=0.22) or angle-closure glaucoma (p=0.27).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In addition to parameters such as lower physical activity, higher depression score and worse general health status, a reduced HGS is associated with visual impairment, shorter axial length, lower intraocular pressure, thinner peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer and higher prevalence of diabetic retinopathy. HGS dynamometry or a handshake may provide the ophthalmologist additional clinical information about the general health and ocular parameters of the patient.