A longitudinal study of incident hypertension and its determinants in Indian adults aged 45 years and older: evidence from nationally representative WHO-SAGE study (2007-2015)

Objectives

Hypertension (HT) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of HT among adults aged 45 years and older in India and its associated risk factors.

Methods

This study used longitudinal data from the Indian sample of the first and second waves of the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (WHO-SAGE). A bivariate analysis using Pearson's chi-square test was done to examine the associations of individual, lifestyle, and household characteristics with HT status reported in Wave 2. Incident HT changes were analyzed by adjusting for various covariates in the generalized estimating equation (logit link function) with an exchangeable correlation matrix and robust standard errors.

Results

The study found that during the 8-year period from 2007 to 2015, the incidence of HT in individuals aged 45 years and over was 20.8%. Pre-hypertensive individuals had an overall incidence rate of 31.1 per 1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.20-35.9] and a 2.24 times higher odds ratio: 2.24 (95% CI: 1.65-3.03) of developing incident HT compared to those who were normotensive. Adults aged 45 years and older, overweight/obese individuals, and women were more at risk of incident HT.

Conclusion

One in five individuals had developed HT over 8 years, with a greater risk of incident HT among women than men. Pre-hypertensive individuals were at a greater risk of developing incident HT compared to normotensive individuals. The study recommends comprehensive and effective management of pre-HT to tackle the burden of HT.

Concurrent Undernutrition and Overnutrition within Indian Families between 2006 and 2021

Background

The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), characterized by concurrent undernutrition and overnutrition, is a growing global concern. Families share resources and eating behaviors and programs often target households, yet evidence of the DBM at the family level is scarce.

Objectives

This study examined trends and inequality in the intrahousehold DBM in India between 2006 and 2021.

Methods

Data were from 3 waves of India's National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2006, 2016, and 2021). We examined 3 types of household member (with children aged <5 y) combinations: mother-child (N = 328,039 across 3 waves), father-child, and parent (mother and father)-child (N = 47,139 for each pair). The DBM was defined as one or more individuals with undernutrition (either wasting or stunting in children or underweight in adults) and one or more overweight individuals within the same household. DBM was examined over time, at national and subnational levels, and by residence and wealth.

Results

Nearly all DBM was in the form of an overweight parent and an undernourished weight or stunted child. The prevalence of parent-child DBM increased from 15% in 2006 to 26% in 2021. Father-child pairs experienced the most rapid DBM increase, from 12% in 2006 to 22% in 2021, an 83% increase, driven by increasing overweight among men. In 2021, the DBM was highest in North-Eastern and Southern states, and among relatively rich households from urban areas. The increase in the DBM was faster in rural areas and among poor households compared with that in urban areas and rich households. Urban-rural and rich-poor inequalities in the DBM have decreased over time.

Conclusions

The intrahousehold DBM has increased over time, affecting 1 in 4 households in India in 2021. Family-based interventions that can simultaneously address child underweight and parent overweight are required to address India's increasing intrahousehold DBM.

Key drivers of reversal of trend in childhood anaemia in India: evidence from Indian demographic and health surveys, 2016-21

AIM

Recent National Family Health Survey results portray striking improvements in most population and health indicators, including fertility, family planning, maternal and child health, gender treatment, household environments, and health insurance coverage of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), with all India resonance. However, the prevalence of any anaemia (< 11 g/dl) among children under age five has exhibited a reversed trajectory in recent years. Therefore, the present study explores key drivers of the reversal of the trend in the prevalence of childhood anaemia between 2015 and2021.

METHODS

Data of four rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) were used to show the overall trend of anaemia among children. However, for the analysis of key drivers of the reversal trend of childhood anaemia, only the recent two rounds (NFHS-4 & NFHS-5) were used. Descriptive, bivariate multivariable analysis and Fairlie decomposition model were used to explore the drivers of the reversal of the trend in childhood anaemia.

RESULTS

During the past two decades, India has seen a decline in the prevalence of childhood anaemia (NFHS-2 to NFHS-4). However, a reversal of trend was observed recently. The prevalence of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months increased from 59 percent in NFHS-4 to 67 percent in NFHS-5. In addition, the prevalence of mild anaemia increased from 23.3 percent in NFHS-2 to 28.7 percent in NFHS-5. However, the prevalence of moderate and severe anaemia declined considerably from NFHS-2 (40 percent and 4.1 percent) to NFHS-4 (28.7 percent and 1.6 percent), but showed an increase in the prevalence in NFHS-5 (36.3 percent and 2.2 percent). Among others, mothers' educational attainment, anaemia status and socio-economic status emerge as the key drivers of the change in the prevalence of childhood anaemia.

CONCLUSION

These findings may have vital implications for the ongoing Anaemia Mukt Bharat Programme, one of the government's dream projects in India.

Cultural and Contextual Drivers of Triple Burden of Malnutrition among Children in India

This study examines malnutrition's triple burden, including anaemia, overweight, and stunting, among children aged 6-59 months. Using data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021), the study identifies risk factors and assesses their contribution at different levels to existing malnutrition burden. A random intercept multilevel logistic regression model and spatial analysis are employed to identify child, maternal, and household level risk factors for stunting, overweight, and anaemia. The study finds that 34% of children were stunted, 4% were overweight, and 66% were anaemic. Stunting and anaemia prevalence were higher in central and eastern regions, while overweight was more prevalent in the north-eastern and northern regions. At the macro-level, the coexistence of stunting, overweight, and anaemia circumstantiates the triple burden of childhood malnutrition with substantial spatial variation (Moran's I: stunting-0.53, overweight-0.41, and anaemia-0.53). Multilevel analysis reveals that child, maternal, and household variables play a substantial role in determining malnutrition burden in India. The nutritional health is significantly influenced by a wide range of determinants, necessitating multilevel treatments targeting households to address this diverse group of coexisting factors. Given the intra-country spatial heterogeneity, the treatment also needs to be tailor-made for various disaggregated levels.

Clustering of child deaths among families in low and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis

Background and Aims

Several studies have examined the phenomenon of "death clustering," in which two or more children born to the same mother or from the same family die at an early age. Therefore, a scientific examination of the results is essential to understand how the survival status of the older siblings affects the survival of the younger siblings. By using meta-analysis, this study aims to provide a quantitative synthesis of the results of studies on "child death clustering" in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

This study followed the PRISMA-P 2015 guidelines. We used four electronic databases-PubMed, Medline, Scopus, and Google Scholar with search and citation analysis capabilities. Initially, 140 studies were identified, but only 27 met the eligibility criteria eventually. These were studies that had used the death of a previous child as a covariate to determine the survival status of the index child. The heterogeneity and the publication bias of the studies were examined using the Cochran test, I ² statistic, and Egger's meta-regression test.

Results

The pooled estimate of 114 study estimates for LMICs contains some bias. India's 37 study estimates were distributed more or less equally along the middle line, indicating no publication bias, while there was a slight bias in the estimates for Africa, Latin America, and Bangladesh. The odds of experiencing the death of the index child in the selected LMICs were 2.3 times higher for mothers who had lost any prior child as compared to those mothers who had not had any prior child loss. For African mothers, the odds were five times higher, whereas for Indian mothers, the odds were 1.66 times higher. Mothers' characteristics, such as education, occupation, health-seeking behavior, and maternal competence, significantly affect the child's survival status.

Conclusion

Achieving the sustainable development goals would not be possible if mothers in countries experiencing high levels of under-five mortality are not provided with better health and nutrition facilities. Mothers who have lost multiple children should be targeted for assistance.

Role of seasonality variation in prevalence and trend of childhood wasting in India: An empirical analysis using National Family Health Surveys, 2005-2021

Background

Wasting develops over a short period and can be reversed with short-term interventions. The prevalence of wasting typically varies from season to season-becoming higher during the monsoon (June to September) season as compared to the winter (October to January) and summer (February to May) seasons every year in a cyclical fashion. However, to the best of our knowledge, using nationally representative demographic surveys to extensively study the impact of the timing of the survey on the results and trends around wasting has not been done so far.

Objectives

The goal of this study is to ascertain whether seasonality has an impact on the trend and levels of wasting between NFHS-3 (2005-2006) and NFHS-5 (2019-2021).

Methods

The analysis was based on data on 51,555, 259,627, and 232,920 children under 5 years included in NFHS-3, NFHS-4, and NFHS-5 respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis and the predicted probabilities approach were employed to examine the effect of the months of interview on the prevalence of wasting. The analysis was conducted for 9 states of India which had data for comparable months to compute wasting levels.

Results

We found that at the national level, wasting increased in India by one per cent from NFHS-3 to NFHS-4 but declined by 2% from NFHS-4 to NFHS-5. The results show that seasonality significantly influenced the prevalence of wasting. It was observed that compared to January, the odds of wasting were particularly higher in summer and monsoon seasons, especially in the month of August across all three rounds, indicating the influence of seasonality in the prevalence of wasting in the country.

Discussion

The prevalence of wasting in India needs to be interpreted across seasonal changes as seasonality affects many of the variables intrinsically related to child health and nutritional status.

Multimorbidity combinations and their association with functional disabilities among Indian older adults: evidence from Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI)

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify the unique multimorbidity combinations (MMCs) and their associations with the functional disability of Indian older adults. Moreover, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to assess the potential impact of additional diseases in the nested groups on disability.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional data were analysed in this study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The present study uses data from the first wave of the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (2017-2018). The sample for the study consists of 27 753 aged 60 years and over.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome variable was functional disability, measured by the combined activities of daily living (ADL)-instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) index.

RESULTS

Out of 197 uniquely identified MMCs, the combination of hypertension and high depressive symptoms (HDS) was the most prevalent (10.3%). Overall, all MMCs were associated with increased functional limitation. Specifically, the combination of hypertension, arthritis and HDS was associated with greater ADL-IADL disability than any other MMC. The addition of HDS in group 3 (hypertension and arthritis) (incidence rate ratios (IRR)=1.44; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.64) and the addition of arthritis in group 1 (hypertension, HDS) (IRR=1.48; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.71) and group 2 (hypertension, diabetes) (IRR=1.49; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.82) significantly increases the rates of ADL-IADL disability. The estimated PAFs of the group 1 (hypertension and HDS), group 3 (hypertension and arthritis) and group 4 (arthritis and HDS) for ADL-IADL disability were 22.5% (19.2-25.5), 21.6% (18.7-24.4) and 23.5% (20.6-26.3), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings from this study underscore the importance of addressing the morbidity combinations which are more disabling than the others in older adults. Understanding the somatic and psychological relevance of the morbidities in functional health is necessary and can help reduce disabilities among older adults.

Comparing socio-economic inequalities in self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension among adults 45 years and over in India: what explains these inequalities?

BACKGROUND

Hypertension (HTN) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. For India, the hidden burden of undiagnosed hypertension is a major concern. This study aims to assess and explain socio-economic inequalities among self-reported and undiagnosed hypertensives in India.

METHODS

The study utilized data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), a nationally-representative survey of more than 72,000 older adults. The study used funnel plots, multivariable logistic regression, concentration indices, and decomposition analysis to explain the socio-economic gap in the prevalence of self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension between the richest and the poorest groups.

RESULTS

The prevalence of self-reported and undiagnosed hypertension was 27.4 and 17.8% respectively. Monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) quintile was positively associated with self-reported hypertension but negatively associated with undiagnosed hypertension. The concentration index for self-reported hypertension was 0.133 (p < 0.001), whereas it was - 0.047 (p < 0.001) for undiagnosed hypertension. Over 50% of the inequalities in self-reported hypertension were explained by the differences in the distribution of the characteristics whereas inequalities remained unexplained for undiagnosed hypertension. Obesity and diabetes were key contributors to pro-rich inequality.

CONCLUSIONS

Results imply that self-reported measures underestimate the true prevalence of hypertension and disproportionately affect the poorer MPCE groups. The prevalence of self-reported HTN was higher in the richest group, whereas socio-economic inequality in undiagnosed hypertension was significantly concentrated in the poorest group. As majority of the inequalities remain unexplained in case of undiagnosed hypertension, broader health systems issues including barriers to access to health care may be contributing to inequalities.

Intra-cluster correlations in socio-demographic variables and their implications: An analysis based on large-scale surveys in India

Individuals who share similar socio-economic and cultural characteristics also share similar health outcomes. Consequently, they have a propensity to cluster together, which results in positive intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) in their socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics. In this study, using data from four rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we estimated the ICC for selected socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics in rural and urban areas of six states namely Assam, Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics included religion & caste of the household head, use of contraception & prevalence of anaemia among currently married women and coverage of full immunization services among children aged 12-23 months. ICC was computed at the level ofPrimary Sampling Units (PSUs), that is, villages in rural areas and census enumeration blocks in urban areas. Our research highlights high clustering in terms of religion and caste within PSUs in India. In NFHS-4, the ICCs for religion ranged from the lowest of 0.19 in rural areas of Kerala to the highest of 0.67 in urban areas of West Bengal. For the caste of the household head, the ICCs ranged from the lowest of 0.12 in the urban areas of Punjab to the highest of 0.46 in the rural areas of Assam. In most of the states selected for the study, the values of ICC were higher for the use of family planning methods than for full immunization. The value of ICC for use of contraception was highest for rural areas of Assam (0.15) followed by rural areas of Gujarat (0.13). A higher value of ICC has considerable implications for determining an effective sample size for large-scale surveys. Our findings agree with the fact that for a given cluster size, the higher the value of ICC, the higher is the loss in precision of the estimate. Knowing and taking into account ICCs can be extremely helpful in determining an effective sample size when designing a large-scale demographic and health survey to arrive at estimates of parameters with the desired precision.

Infant Death Clustering in the Quarter of a Century in India: A Decomposition Analysis

The study aims to examine the clustering of infant deaths in India and the relative contribution of infant death clustering after accounting for the socio-economic and biodemographic factors that explain the decline in infant deaths. The study utilized 10 years of birth history data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The random effects dynamic probit model was used to decompose the decline in infant deaths into the contributions by the socio-economic and demographic factors, including the lagged independent variable, the previous infant death measuring the clustering of infant deaths in families. The study found that there has been a decline in the clustering of infant deaths among families during the past two and half decades. The simulation result shows that if the clustering of infant deaths in families in India was completely removed, there would be a decline of nearly 30 percent in the infant mortality rate (IMR). A decomposition analysis based on the dynamic probit model shows that for NFHS-1 and NFHS-3, in the total change of the probability of infant deaths, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed around 45 percent, and about 44 percent was explained by a compositional shift. Between NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, the rate of change for a given population composition contributed 86%, and the population composition for a given rate contributed 10% to the total change in the probability of infant deaths. Within this rate, the contribution of a previous infant was 0.8% and the mother's age was 10%; nearly 31% was contributed by the region of residence, 69% by the mother's education, and around 20% was contributed by the wealth index and around 8.7% by the sex of the child. The mother's unobserved factors contributed more than 50 percent to the variability of infant deaths in all the survey rounds and was also statistically significant (p < 0.01). Bivariate analysis suggests that women with two or more infant losses were much less likely to have full immunization (10%) than women with no infant loss (62%), although institutional delivery was high among both groups of women.

Assessing the role of depressive symptoms in the association between social engagement and cognitive functioning among older adults: analysis of cross-sectional data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI)

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to examine the confounding effects of depressive symptoms and the role of gender in the association between social engagement and cognitive functioning among older Indian adults.

DESIGN

Large-scale cross-sectional survey data were analysed.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (2017-2019) were used in the analysis. The sample included 23 584 individuals aged 60 years and above (11 403 men and 12 181 women).

OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome variable was cognitive functioning, which was based on various measures including immediate and delayed word recall, orientation, executive functioning, arithmetic ability and object naming. Social engagement measure consists of marital status, living arrangement, availability of confidant, and participation in indoor games, and social and cultural functions. The Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale was used to assess depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Significant gender differences in mean cognition scores (men: 25.8, women: 21.1; on a scale of 0-43) were observed. Two-way stratification between social engagement and depressive symptoms was significantly associated with cognitive functioning after controlling for selected explanatory factors. Older men with a low level of social engagements had significantly poor cognitive functioning (β=-1.12; 95% CI: -1.53 to -0.72) compared with men with a high level of social engagements. On the other hand, women with a higher level of social engagement performed poorly on cognitive tests (β=-1.54; 95% CI: -2.11 to -0.98) compared with men with higher social engagements. Three-way stratification between social engagement, gender and depressive symptoms suggests that social engagement's buffering effects are lower in women than in men. The Karlson-Holm-Breen method identified a significant confounding effect of depressive symptoms on the relationship between social engagement and cognitive functioning.

CONCLUSION

The positive association of social engagement with cognitive functioning was significantly confounded by depressive symptoms, suggesting the need for maintaining social relations that help improve mental health and cognitive functioning among older adults.

Quality of anthropometric data in India's National Family Health Survey: Disentangling interviewer and area effect using a cross-classified multilevel model

India has adopted a target-based approach to reduce the scourge of child malnourishment. Because the monitoring and evaluation required by this approach relies primarily on large-scale data, a data quality assessment is essential. As field teams are the primary mode of data collection in large-scale surveys, this study attempts to understand their contribution to variations in child anthropometric measures. This research can help disentangle the confounding effects of regions/districts and field teams on the quality of child anthropometric data. The anthropometric z-scores of 2,25,002 children below five years were obtained from the fourth round of India's National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–16. Unadjusted and adjusted standard deviations (SD) of the anthropometric measures were estimated to assess the variations in measurements. In addition, a cross-classified multilevel model (CCMM) approach was adopted to estimate the contribution of geographical regions/districts and teams to variations in anthropometric measures. The unadjusted SDs of the measures of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 1.7, 1.4, and 1.2, respectively. The SD of stunting was above the World Health Organisation threshold (0.8–1.2), as well as the Demographic and Health Survey mark. After adjusting for team-level characteristics, the SDs of all three measures reduced marginally, indicating that team-level workload had a marginal but significant role in explaining the variations in anthropometric z-scores. The CCMM showed that the maximum contribution to variations in anthropometric z-scores came from community-level (Primary Sampling Unit (PSU)) characteristics. Team-level characteristics had a higher contribution to variations in anthropometric z-scores than district-level attributes. Variations in measurement were higher for child height than weight. The present study decomposes the effects of district- and team-level factors and highlights the nuances of introducing teams as a level of analysis in multilevel modelling. Population size, density, and terrain variations between PSUs should be considered when allocating field teams in large-scale surveys.

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Unadjusted standard deviation for child malnourishment indicators are above the recommended level of DHS data quality standards.

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Variation in stunting is directly proportional to workload measured by number of eligible children in the PSUs.

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Cross-classified multilevel models show significant team-level contribution in explaining variations in anthropometric scores.

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Team-level contribution to explaining variations in child anthropometric measures is larger than district-level factors.

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The number of days assigned to gather anthropometric measurements should be dependent on the number of eligible respondents in a PSU, which may be identified at the time of mapping & listing, rather than being a fixed number of days across all the states of India.

Survey implementation process and interviewer effects on skipping sequence of maternal and child health indicators from National Family Health Survey: An application of cross-classified multilevel model

Implementing a large-scale survey involves a string of intricate procedures exposed to numerous types of survey errors. Uniform and systematic training protocols, comprehensive survey manuals, and multilayer supervision during survey implementation help reduce survey errors, providing a consistent fieldwork environment that should not result in any variation in the quality of data collected across interviewers and teams. With this background, the present study attempts to delineate the effect of field investigator (FI) teams and survey implementation design on the selected outcomes. Data on four of the bigger Empowered Action Group (EAG) states of India, namely Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, were obtained from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) for analysis. A fixed-effect binary logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of FI teams and survey implementation design on the selected outcomes. To study the variation in the outcome variables at the interviewer level, a cross-classified multilevel model was used. Since one interviewer had worked in more than one primary sampling unit (PSU) & district and did not follow a perfect hierarchical structure, the cross-classified multilevel model was deemed suitable. In addition, since NFHS-4 used a two-stage stratified sampling design, two-level weights were adjusted for the models to compute unbiased estimates. This study demonstrated the presence of interviewer-level variation in the selected outcomes at both inter- and intra-field agencies across the selected states. The interviewer-level intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for women who had not availed antenatal care (ANC) was the highest for eastern Madhya Pradesh (0.23) and central Uttar Pradesh (0.20). For ‘immunisation card not seen’, Rajasthan (0.16) and western Uttar Pradesh (0.13) had higher interviewer-level ICC. Interviewer-level variations were insignificant for women who gave birth at home across all regions of Uttar Pradesh. Eastern Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar showed higher interviewer-level variation across the selected outcomes, underlining the critical role of agencies and skilled interviewers in different survey implementation designs. The analysis highlights non-uniform adherence to survey protocols, which implies that not all interviewers and agencies performed in a similar manner in the field. This study recommends a refined mechanism for field implementation and supervision, including focused training on the challenges faced by FIs, random vigilance, and morale building. In addition, examining interviewer-level characteristics, field challenges, and field agency effects may also highlight the roots of interviewer-level variation in the data. However, based on the interviewer's performance in the field, the present study offers an intriguing insight into interviewer-level variations in the quality of data.

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With uniform survey implementation strategies, the interviewer should not have any effect in explaining the maternal and child health variables.

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Skipping of selected maternal and child health indicators curtails informativeness of the survey. Results confirms that information on vaccination card, antenatal care, maternal policy information, delivery cost and postnatal checkups have been skipped with negative response to opening questions.

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Cross-classified multilevel model confirms the presence of interviewer-level variation. The interviewer-level intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for ‘immunization card not seen’ was found to be highest in Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh.

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Interviewer-level variations were found to be not significant for women who gave birth at home across all the regions of Uttar Pradesh whereas the interviewer-level variations for women who had not availed ANC was found to be highest for eastern Madhya Pradesh central Uttar Pradesh. Results emphasizes that not all interviewers and agencies performed in a similar manner in the field.

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The study recommends a refined mechanism for field implementation and supervision, including focused training on challenges faced by field investigators, random vigilance, and morale building.

Sterilization incentives and associated regret among ever married women in India, NFHS, 2015–16

Objective

Sterilization is the only family planning method that involves relatively large amount compensation. So, the study attempts to examine the role of incentives received against the sterilization procedures on the reporting of sterilization regret in India.

Methods

The study used data from the fourth round of National Family Health Survey, 2015–16, which gathered the information on sterilization regret from 1,94,207 ever-married women. Multivariate logistic analysis and predicted probabilities approach was used to study the effect of compensation received on the sterilization regret in India.

Results

Results show that women who have received compensation were 33% less likely to report sterilization regret. It was found that 70% of women who undergone sterilization in public facility didn’t incur any expenditure, rather received incentives. It is observed that women who had undergone operation in private facility spent a large amount than women who had done their operation in public facility. The regret in the private facility mainly results from high out of pocket expenditure on sterilization procedures. Around eight percent of women regretted getting sterilized in a private hospital and received some compensation amount, vis a vis the six percent who regretted undergoing sterilization in public facility and received compensation.

Conclusion

The study calls for a need to standardize the cost of sterilization procedure in India's health facilities. A good alternative for reducing the cost could be Public–Private Partnership.

Validity of self-reported hypertension in India: Evidence from nationally representative survey of adult population over 45 years

Self‐reported measures of health, in the context of developed countries, are well‐researched and commonly regarded as reliable predictors of the underlying health of the population. However, the validity of these measures is under‐researched and questionable in the context of low‐ and middle‐income countries. The authors used Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) survey data from India to compare self‐reported hypertension with biometrically‐measured hypertension. The results are reported in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and kappa as a measure of agreement. Logistic regression was undertaken to examine the characteristics of those who were unaware of their hypertensive status. Our analysis showed a low sensitivity of 56% and a high specificity of 90.5%. Agreement between self‐reported data and biometric measurement of hypertension was observed to be moderate (κ = 0.48). Large variations were observed among states and sub‐groups. The odds of false negative reporting of hypertension were lower in the individuals with higher age, high education, and greater wealth status. The authors conclude that self‐reported hypertension has important limitations and may be a source of systematic bias. It is recommended that planning and policy‐making in India be based more on an objective assessment of hypertension.

The trends of female sterilization in India: an age period cohort analysis approach

In India, sterilisation is the most frequent method of modern contraception, and is primarily used by women. The contemporaneous assessment of sterilisation literature focuses only on trends and patterns that are limited to socioeconomic considerations, ignoring the cohort and period issues. No study has employed Age Period Cohort (APC) analysis to highlight the effect of APC on a particular outcome to yet. We have used maximum entropy method modelling to analyse the individual influence of APC on female sterilisation in India using the four rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). While the older group had higher sterilisation rates than the younger cohort, the age effects were found to have a standard inverted U-shaped curve, with women sterilising in their mid-30s as the might have completed their desire family size. The analysis found high rural-urban differentials in utilising female sterilisation, highlighting the relevance of education and empowerment in contraceptive decision-making among the educated one. Female sterilisation has become less common among Muslims in India over time, and among uneducated women, and it has shifted to later ages with each succeeding period. This was determined to be concerning in terms of India's future fertility. Since 1947, the government has implemented numerous policies to provide women with a variety of contraceptive options; however, the dominance of female sterilisation throughout all periods demonstrates that the government's efforts to provide temporary methods were futile.

Role of maternal and child health services on the uptake of contraceptive use in India: A reproductive calendar approach

BACKGROUND

According to the latest round of National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS (2015-16)) maternal and child health care (MCH) services improved drastically compared to NFHS-3. Previous studies have established that the uptake of MCH services increases the likelihood of early adoption of contraceptives among women. So, our study aims to examine if the early initiation of contraceptive has proportionately improved with the recent increase in MCH services.

METHODS

This study used the reproductive calendar of NFHS-4, 2015-16, to evaluate contraceptive initiation within 12 months after the last birth among 1,36,962 currently married women in India. A complementary log-log regression model was created to examine the link between the time of initiation of contraception and MCH care at the national level.

RESULTS

It was found that only a quarter of women within 12 months from last birth have adopted the modern contraceptive method. Among those majority of the females adopted sterilization mostly at the time of birth. The multivariable model identified, that the period of initiation of contraceptive depends on the gender composition of children and access to MCH services. It was found that the odds of early initiation of contraceptive use was higher when a women have only son (AOR = 1.15,95% CI- 1.22, 1.18) compared to women with only daughter. Also, it was found that women who have availed MCH services were more likely to adopt contraceptives earlier.

CONCLUSION

The number of women availing MCH services has increased in India, but it did not result in a proportional increase in initiation of contraception after childbirth. Facilitating family planning services alongside MCH services will be beneficial in low-resource settings. It is a golden opportunity to educate and encourage women for early adoption of contraceptive.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Hypertension Among People Aged 45 Years and Over in India: A Sub-national Analysis of the Variation in Performance of Indian States

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the single largest contributor to non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths, with hypertension contributing to a significant proportion of these deaths. This study aims to provide estimates of the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension at sub-national levels in India and identifies well and under-performing states with respect to the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. Methods: The study utilises data from the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in India (LASI), a nationally representative survey of more than 72,000 individuals. Age-sex adjusted prevalence rates of self-reported hypertension was calculated using the direct standardisation method. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the association of self-reported hypertension with the various individual co-morbidity, lifestyle, and household factors. Self-reported prevalence was compared with an objective measure of hypertension for each state, and funnel plots were constructed to assess the performance of states. Results: Our findings suggest that the overall prevalence of age-sex adjusted self-reported hypertension was 25.8% in India with significant variation among states. Results based on logistic regression confirm that those individuals who are elderly, obese, belong to a higher socio-economic group and have associated co-morbidities are at increased odds of reporting hypertension. Overall, 4 out of 10 adults over 45 years of age in India are not aware of their hypertensive condition, and of those who are aware, 73% are currently taking medication, and only 10% of these have their hypertension under control. Based on the performance, states were classified into high and low performing categories. States with an increased proportion of population below the poverty line had significantly lower performance with respect to the diagnosis of hypertension, whereas states with higher literacy rates and greater availability of specialist doctors at community health centres (CHCs) had significantly better performance with respect to treatment-seeking behaviour. Conclusion: The findings of this study and its policy implications are discussed. Based on state performance, strategies are proposed in terms selective targeting vs. population-based strategies. High impact states and sub-groups are identified where intense efforts are needed to tackle the growing menace of hypertension in India.

Estimating the Burden of Child Undernutrition for Smaller Electoral Units in India

IMPORTANCE

Geographic targeting of public health interventions is needed in resource-constrained developing countries.

OBJECTIVE

To develop methods for estimating health and development indicators across micropolicy units, using assembly constituencies (ACs) in India as an example.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study included children younger than 5 years who participated in the fourth National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-4), conducted between January 2015 and December 2016. Participants lived in 36 states and union territories and 640 districts in India. Children who had valid weight and height measures were selected for stunting, underweight, and wasting analysis, and children between age 6 and 59 months with valid blood hemoglobin concentration levels were included in the anemia analysis sample. The analysis was performed between February 1 and August 15, 2020.

EXPOSURES

A total of 3940 ACs were identified from the geographic location of primary sampling units in which the children's households were surveyed in NFHS-4.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Stunting, underweight, and wasting were defined according to the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards. Anemia was defined as blood hemoglobin concentration less than 11.0 g/dL.

RESULTS

The main analytic sample included 222 172 children (mean [SD] age, 30.03 [17.01] months; 114 902 [51.72%] boys) from 3940 ACs in the stunting, underweight, and wasting analysis and 215 593 children (mean [SD] age, 32.63 [15.47] months; 112 259 [52.07%] boys) from 3941 ACs in the anemia analysis. The burden of child undernutrition varied substantially across ACs: from 18.02% to 60.94% for stunting, with a median (IQR) of 35.56% (29.82%-42.42%); from 10.40% to 63.24% for underweight, with a median (IQR) of 32.82% (25.50%-40.96%); from 5.56% to 39.91% for wasting, with a median (IQR) of 19.91% (15.70%-24.27%); and from 18.63% to 83.05% for anemia, with a median (IQR) of 55.74% (48.41%-63.01%). The degree of inequality within states varied across states; those with high stunting, underweight, and wasting prevalence tended to have high levels of inequality. For example, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Karnataka had high mean AC-level prevalence of child stunting (Uttar Pradesh, 45.29%; Jharkhand, 43.76%; Karnataka, 39.77%) and also large SDs (Uttar Pradesh, 6.90; Jharkhand, 6.02; Karnataka, 6.72). The Moran I indices ranged from 0.25 to 0.80, indicating varying levels of spatial autocorrelation in child undernutrition across the states in India. No substantial difference in AC-level child undernutrition prevalence was found after adjusting for possible random displacement of geographic location data.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, substantial inequality in child undernutrition was found across ACs in India, suggesting the importance of considering local electoral units in designing targeted interventions. The methods presented in this paper can be further applied to measuring health and development indicators in small electoral units for enhanced geographic precision of public health data in developing countries.

Pro-poor policies and improvements in maternal health outcomes in India

BACKGROUND

Since 2005, India has experienced an impressive 77% reduction in maternal mortality compared to the global average of 43%. What explains this impressive performance in terms of reduction in maternal mortality and improvement in maternal health outcomes? This paper evaluates the effect of household wealth status on maternal mortality in India, and also separates out the performance of the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states and the Southern states of India. The results are discussed in the light of various pro-poor programmes and policies designed to reduce maternal mortality and the existing supply side gaps in the healthcare system of India. Using multiple sources of data, this study aims to understand the trends in maternal mortality (1997-2017) between EAG and non EAG states in India and explore various household, economic and policy factors that may explain reduction in maternal mortality and improvement in maternal health outcomes in India.

METHODS

This study triangulates data from different rounds of Sample Registration Systems to assess the trend in maternal mortality in India. It further analysed the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS). NFHS-4, 2015-16 has gathered information on maternal mortality and pregnancy-related deaths from 601,509 households. Using logistic regression, we estimate the association of various socio-economic variables on maternal deaths in the various states of India.

RESULTS

On an average, wealth status of the households did not have a statistically significant association with maternal mortality in India. However, our disaggregate analysis reveals, the gains in terms of maternal mortality have been unevenly distributed. Although the rich-poor gap in maternal mortality has reduced in EAG states such as Bihar, Odisha, Assam, Rajasthan, the maternal mortality has remained above the national average for many of these states. The EAG states also experience supply side shortfalls in terms of availability of PHC and PHC doctors; and availability of specialist doctors.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel contribution of the present paper is that the association of household wealth status and place of residence with maternal mortality is statistically not significant implying financial barriers to access maternal health services have been minimised. This result, and India's impressive performance with respect to maternal health outcomes, can be attributed to the various pro-poor policies and cash incentive schemes successfully launched in recent years. Community-level involvement with pivotal role played by community health workers has been one of the major reasons for the success of many ongoing policies. Policy makers need to prioritise the underperforming states and socio-economic groups within the states by addressing both demand-side and supply-side measures simultaneously mediated by contextual factors.

Addressing data and methodological limitations in estimating catastrophic health spending and impoverishment in India, 2004-18

Background

Estimates of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) are counterintuitive to researchers, policy makers, and developmental partners due to data and methodological limitation. While inferences drawn from use of capacity-to-pay (CTP) and budget share (BS) approaches are inconsistent, the non-availability of data on food expenditure in the health survey in India is an added limitation.

Methods

Using data from the health and consumption surveys of National Sample Surveys over 14 years, we have overcome these limitations and estimated the incidence and intensity of CHE and impoverishment using the CTP approach.

Results

The incidence of CHE for health services in India was 12.5% in 2004, 13.4% in 2014 and 9.1% by 2018. Among those households incurring CHE, they spent 1.25 times of their capacity to pay in 2004 (intensity of CHE), 1.71 times in 2014 and 1.31 times by 2018. The impoverishment due to health spending was 4.8% in 2004, 5.1% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2018. The state variations in incidence and intensity of CHE and incidence of impoverishment is large. The concentration index (CI) of CHE was − 0.16 in 2004, − 0.18 in 2014 and − 0.22 in 2018 suggesting increasing inequality over time. The concentration curves based on CTP approach suggests that the CHE was concentrated among poor. The odds of incurring CHE were lowest among the richest households [OR 0.22; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.24], households with elderly members [OR 1.20; 95% CI:1.12, 1.18] and households using both inpatient and outpatient services [OR 2.80, 95% CI 2.66, 2.95]. Access to health insurance reduced the chance of CHE and impoverishment among the richest households. The pattern of impoverishment was similar to that of CHE.

Conclusion

In the last 14 years, the CHE and impoverishment in India has declined while inequality in CHE has increased.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-021-01421-6.

An epidemic of avoidable caesarean deliveries in the private sector in India: Is physician-induced demand at play?

PURPOSE AND SETTING OF RESEARCH

Caesarean section (C-section) rates of over 15% suggest overuse of the surgery which may be difficult to justify on medical grounds. One important contributor to the rise in Csection rates is the rapid expansion of unregulated private-sector providers in number of settings. This study analyses the contribution of private sector in the rapid rise in Csection deliveries in India and the extent to which these can be justified on medical grounds.

METHODS

This is a cross sectional study design using National Family Health Surveys. Logistic regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses are performed. The main outcome measured is avoidable C-sections in the private sector.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Our findings suggest that the rising trend in C-section rates in the private sector cannot be explained by medical reasons alone. The odds of C-section among women who chose to deliver in private was over 4 times higher than women who chose to delivery in public facilities. Despite, controlling for medical complications, women's characteristics and preferences, our PSM analysis suggest that the public-private gap has doubled over the years and that the difference cannot be explained by known determinants of C-section. Over supply of avoidable C-section to the extent of 21%, as a result of physician induced demand and perverse financial incentives was observed in the private sector.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper attempts to understand the reason for the high C-section rates in the private sector in India and the extent to which these are avoidable. Our analysis supports the assumption that physician induced demand as a result of perverse financial incentives in the private sector is at play.

Sterilization regret in India: Is quality of care a matter of concern?

Background

According to United Nations, 19% of females in the world relied only on the permanent method of family planning, with 37% in India according to NFHS-4. Limited studies tried to measure the sterilization regret, and its correlated factors. The study tried to explore the trend of sterilization regret in India from 1992 to 2015 and to elicit the determining effects of various factors on sterilization regret, especially in context to perceived quality of care in the sterilization operations and type of providers.

Data and methods

The pooled data from NFHS-1, NFHS-3 and NFHS-4 was used to explore the regret by creating interaction between time and all the predictors. Predicted probabilities were calculated to show the trend of sterilization regret amounting to quality of care, type of health provider at the three time periods.

Results

The sterilization regret was increased from 5 % in NFHS-1 to 7 % in NFHS-4. According to NFHS-4, for those whose sterilization was performed in private health facility the regret was found to be less (OR-0.937; 95% CI- (0.882–0.996)) compared to public health facility. Also, the results show a two-fold increase in regret when women reported bad quality of care. The results from predicted probabilities provide enough evidence that the regret due to bad quality of care in sterilization operation had increased with each subsequent round of NFHS.

Conclusion

Many socio-economic and demographic factors have influenced the regret, but the poor quality of care contributed maximum to the regret from 1992 to 2015. The health facilities have seriously strayed from improving the health and well-being of women in providing the family planning methods. In addition, to public facilities, the regret amounting to private facilities have also increased from NFHS-1 to 4. The quality of care provided in the family planning operation should be standardized in every hospital to strengthen the health systems in the country. The couple should be motivated to adopt more of spacing methods.

Disparity in childhood stunting in India: Relative importance of community-level nutrition and sanitary practices

Despite rapid macro-economic growth, one-third of the global burden of childhood stunting is contributed by India. This burden is characterized by wide-spread geographical variation within the country. This paper explores two research questions: (i) are the drivers of severe and moderate stunting similar? (ii) differential endowments or policy-effect, how do community-level nutrition and sanitary practices affect inter-state differences? Using data from Indian National Family and Health Survey 4, 2015-16, six states holding different ranks in the stunting continuum are compared to Tamil Nadu, taken as the benchmark state due to its laudable performance in the health care sector. Applying quantile regression approaches, the difference in state-level performance is decomposed into detailed covariate effects (differential endowments) and coefficient effects (differential strength of association between the drivers and outcome). The explanatory variables are not similarly associated with severe and moderate stunting. Decomposition results demonstrate a significant role of community-level sanitation practices compared to child nutrition behaviour in explaining the inter-state disparity. Coefficient effects play a dominant role in the lower tail of HAZ distribution for the poor performing states indicating that the worse outcomes of these states are due to weaker policy effects of the control variables on stunting. Multi-sectoral approach, identification and differentiation between severe and moderate stunting cases can be more instrumental in managing and reducing the scourge. This paper also advocates the potential benefits of customizing centrally-launched policies as per the state's performance and introducing the concept coproduction in the existing nutrition and health policy framework. This will instigate a feeling of ownership of the problem of childhood stunting among the policy consumers and strengthen the influence of policies on the outcomes.

Assessment of Variation in Cesarean Delivery Rates Between Public and Private Health Facilities in India From 2005 to 2016

IMPORTANCE

The rates of cesarean deliveries have more than doubled in India, from 8% of deliveries in 2005 to 17% of deliveries in 2016. The World Health Organization recommends that cesarean deliveries should not exceed 10% to 15% of all deliveries in any country. An understanding of the association of private and public facilities with the increase in cesarean delivery rates in India is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of public vs private sector health care facilities with cesarean delivery rates in India and to estimate the potential cost savings if private sector facilities followed World Health Organization recommendation for cesarean deliveries.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used institutional delivery data from the representative National Family Health Survey (NFHS) in India, including data from the NFHS-1 (1992-1993), the NFHS-3 (2005-2006), and the NFHS-4 (2015-2016). The NFHS-3 and NFHS-4 provided data on 22 647 deliveries and 195 366 deliveries, respectively. The NHFS-4 was the first survey to provide data on out-of-pocket expenditures for delivery by facility type, allowing for a comparison of cesarean deliveries and costs between public and private facilities. The primary sample comprised all pregnant women who delivered infants in public and private institutional facilities in India and who were included the NFHS-3 and the NFHS-4; data on pregnant women who were included in the NFHS-1 were used for comparison. The study's findings were analyzed through geographic mapping, data tabulation, funnel plots, multivariate logistic regression analyses, and potential cost-savings scenario analyses. Data were analyzed from June to December 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the rate of cesarean deliveries by facility type (public vs private) and by participant socioeconomic, demographic, and health characteristics. Secondary outcomes were the potential number of avoidable cesarean deliveries and the potential cost savings if private sector facilities followed the World Health Organization recommendations for cesarean deliveries.

RESULTS

In the NFHS-3, 22 610 total births occurred at institutional facilities. Of those, 2178 births (15.2%) were cesarean deliveries in public facilities, and 3200 births (27.9%) were cesarean deliveries in private facilities. Of 195 366 total institutional births in the NFHS-4, 15 165 births (11.9%) were cesarean deliveries in public facilities, and 20 506 births (40.9%) were cesarean deliveries in private facilities. The cesarean delivery rate in public health facilities increased from 7.2% in the NFHS-1 to 11.9% in the NFHS-4, whereas in private health facilities, the rate increased from 12.3% to 40.9% during the same period. A substantial increase was found in cesarean delivery rates between the NFHS-3 (2005-2006) and the NFHS-4 (2015-2016), with 22 states exceeding the World Health Organization's upper threshold of 15% in the NFHS-4. The odds ratio for cesarean deliveries in private facilities compared with public facilities increased from 1.62 (95% CI, 1.49-1.76) in the NFHS-3 to 4.17 (95% CI, 4.04-4.30) in the NFHS-4. The number of avoidable cesarean deliveries would have been 1.83 million, with a potential cost savings of $320.60 million, if private sector facilities in India had followed the 15% threshold for cesarean delivery rates recommended by the World Health Organization.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, private sector health facilities were associated with a substantial increase in cesarean deliveries in India. Further research is needed to assess the factors underlying the increase in cesarean deliveries in private sector facilities.

Integrated multisectoral strategy to improve girls' and women's nutrition before conception, during pregnancy and after birth in India (Swabhimaan): protocol for a prospective, non-randomised controlled evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Swabhimaan is a community-based programme to improve adolescent girls' and women's nutrition in the rural areas of three Indian states-Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Odisha with high prevalence of undernutrition.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Swabhimaan has a nested prospective, non-randomised controlled evaluation. Since 2017, five intervention sites receive community-led interventions through national government's livelihood mission supported women's self-help group federations and five control sites will initiate these activities 36 months later, in 2020. Community-led activities aim to improve coverage of 18 interventions including adequacy of food consumed, prevention of micronutrient deficiencies, access to basic health services and special care of nutritionally 'at risk' girls and women, improving hygiene and access to water and sanitation services and access to family planning services. The evaluation includes baseline (2016-2017), midline (2018-2019) and endline (2020-2021) surveys covering 6638 adolescent girls, 2992 pregnant women and 8755 mothers of children under 2. The final impact analysis will be by intention to treat, comparing primary and secondary outcomes in five intervention areas and five control areas. The primary outcomes are: (1) a 15% reduction in the proportion of adolescent girls with a body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m²; (2) a 15% reduction in the proportion of mothers of children under two with a BMI <18.5 kg/m² and (3) and a 0.4 cm improvement in mean mid-upper arm circumference among pregnant women.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All procedures involving human subjects were approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Odisha and in compliance with guidelines laid down in the Declaration of Helsinki. Evidence will inform maternal and preconception nutrition policy at national and state level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

58261b2f46876 and CTRI/2016/11/007482; Pre-results.

Temporal decomposition of life years lived with disability in India: a growing demographic concern

BACKGROUND

To draw optimal benefits of the demographic dividend, healthy life years of the young adults is a growing concern in India. Rising prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases among the younger population is responsible for increasing the life years lived with disability among them and for affecting their productivity in turn. This study measures the disability burden in various Indian sub-populations and assesses the contribution of disability to the change in person years lived with a disability during 2001-11.

METHODS

Data from the Census of India, 2001 and 2011 was used for estimating the age distribution and disability prevalence among males and females. The Sample Registration System was used for age-specific mortality rate to calculate the life table for 15 states in India. Life years Lived with Disability (LLD) were estimated using the Sullivan method. The extension of Arriaga method was used to decompose change in life years lived with disability into Mortality and Disability Effect (ME and DE, respectively). Positive ME explains improvement in life years due to decline in mortality rate and a negative DE explains a decline in disability incidence in 2001-11.

RESULTS

At national level, the disability prevalence has increased from 2001 to 2011. The prevalence of disability and the share of LLD to Life Expectancy (LE) is higher for males. High and medium fertility states scored highest on living with disability to LE ratio and measured DE in the decomposition analysis. At the national level, the DE increased in the age groups of 20-35 years. It was higher among the females. The states that are in the advanced stages of demographic transition show a negative DE.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights expansion of DE in prime productive years of life, especially among females, in medium and high fertility states. Decline in skilled employment and productivity can be two major economic adversities due to increasing DE in working ages. Disability among young and working age population needs to be prioritised as most of the Indian states stand at crucial stages of demographic transitions.

Trends, patterns and predictive factors of infant and child mortality in well-performing and underperforming states of India: a secondary analysis using National Family Health Surveys

OBJECTIVES

This paper analyses the patterns and trends in the mortality rates of infants and children under the age of 5 in India (1992-2016) and quantifies the variation in performance between different geographical states through three rounds of nationally representative household surveys.

DESIGN

Three rounds of cross-sectional survey data.

SETTING

The study is conducted at the national level: India and its selected good-performing states, namely Haryana, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab and Tamil Nadu, and selected poor-performing states, namely Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Adopting a multistage, stratified random sampling, 601 509 households with 699 686 women aged 15-49 years in 2015-2016, 109 041 households with 124 385 women aged 15-49 years in 2005-2006, and 88 562 households with 89 777 ever married women in the age group 13-49 years in 1992-1993 were selected.

RESULTS

Through the use of maps, this paper clearly shows that the overall trend in infant and child mortality is on a decline in India. Computation of relative change shows that majority of the states have witnessed over 50% reduction in both infant and under-5 mortality rates from National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-I to NFHS-4. However, the improvements are not evenly distributed, and there is huge variation in performance between states over time. Funnel plots show that the most populous states like Uttar Pradesh Bihar and Madhya Pradesh have underperformed consistently across the survey period from 1992 to 2016. Regression analysis comparing high-performing and low-performing states revealed that female infants and women with shorter birth intervals had greater risk of infant deaths in poor-performing states.

CONCLUSION

Attempts to reduce infant and child mortality rates in India are heading in the right direction. Even so, there is huge variation in performance between states. This paper recommends a mix of strategies that reduce child and infant mortality among the high-impact states where the biggest improvements can be expected, including the need to address neonatal mortality.

Changes in contraceptive use and method mix in India: 1992-92 to 2015-16

OBJECTIVE

Contraceptive use is subject of scientific interest for its contribution to reduced fertility and improved maternal and child health in India. This study answers the changes in method mix and the influence of factors associated with contraceptive use in India during 1992-93 to 2015-16.

METHODS

The study used data from all the four rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1992-93 to 2015-16. Binary logistic regression was conducted in the pooled data of contraceptive users of four rounds of the survey to examine the adjusted contribution of various contraceptive methods over time. Also analysed the determinants of contraceptive use in 1992-93 and 2015-16. The pooled data of 1992-93 and 2015-16 was used to explore the change in users through creating interaction between time and predictors. STATA (V 13) was used for analyses and result was reported at 5 percent level of significance.

RESULTS

Female sterilization continued to dominate the contraceptive method mix, use of pills and condoms had considerably increased, and traditional method use had remained almost unchanged during 1992-93 to 2015-16. Age, education, surviving son, religion, social group, household size, region, and economic condition of the woman remained as significant determinants of contraceptive use during the study period.

CONCLUSION

Contraceptive use, method mix, the profile of the users, and determinants of contraceptive use has changed significantly during 1992-93 to 2015-16 in India. Increased use of modern spacing methods albeit continuous dominance of female sterilization in method mix suggests relooking at the family planning implementation strategy.

Child health and unhealthy sanitary practices in India: Evidence from Recent Round of National Family Health Survey-IV

Objectives

Despite threefold increase in investment (from Rs. 28,500 million to Rs. 90,000 million during 2014-17) in the allocation of funds for the Clean India movement, creating awareness and various social movements, more than half of the rural population (52.1%) of the country still defecates in the open. This study aims to examine the prevalence of improved sanitation facilities and safe stool disposal in India and its states. It also aims to further establish inter-linkages between safe stool disposal and child health.

Study design

The present study uses data from the fourth round of the recently conducted cross-sectional National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4, 2015-16).

Methods

Two proxy indicators used to assess the effect on child health are: stunting and mortality of children under the age of five years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to examine the impact of improved sanitation facilities and safe stool disposal on child health measured by height-for-age as a dichotomous variable. Multivariate discrete-time logistic model was used to examine the impact of improved sanitation facilities and safe stool disposal on under-five child deaths.

Results

The results reveal that unsafe disposal of stools are one of the main contributing factors responsible for stunting and under-five mortality among children. The prevalence was clearly seen to be higher in households where open defecation and unsafe stool disposal were practised.

Conclusions

The central behavioural change to be brought about among the people is to improve the cleanliness levels of the neighbourhood and help children spend their childhood free from the misery of malnourishment or in the worst case, death. It is not an impossible task for a country that houses the cleanest village in Asia, Mawlynnong in the Northeast state of Meghalaya, India. If one state could do it, it could be replicated in other states too.

Mind the gap: Temporal trends in inequalities in infant and child mortality in India (1992-2016)

•

Temporal trends in inequalities in infant and child mortality over two and half decades in India.

•

Relative change in inequalities in child mortality over survey periods.

•

Scatter plots to identify states with largest inequalities among wealth index groups.

•

Concentration Index by various background characteristics and decomposition analysis to identify factors contributing in inequality in infant mortality between richest and poorest groups.

•

Gap between the poorest and richest groups has narrowed in most states in India in recent years.

Impact of timing of breastfeeding initiation on neonatal mortality in India

Background

Neonatal mortality defined as a death during the first 28 days of life and is the most critical phase of child survival. In spite of the strong evidence supporting immediate and long term health benefits of timely initiation of breastfeeding in India, only two-fifths (44%) of children receive breastfeeding within 1 h of birth. This study aims to examine the role of a behavioral factor i.e., timing of initiation of breastfeeding on neonatal deaths.

Methods

Data from India Human Development Survey-II (IHDS-II), 2011–12, a nationally representative, large scale population-based dataset has been used. Sample Registration System (SRS) has been used to examine the rate of change in Neonatal Mortality Rates from the year 2011 to 2015. District Level Household & Facility Survey (DLHS-4), 2012–2013 and Annual Health Survey(AHS), 2012–13 data have been used to show the district wise distribution of women who have breastfed their child within 1 h of birth. Population Attributable fraction has been computed using binary logistic regression model for various scenarios of breastfeeding within first hour of birth.

Results

Less than one fourth (21%) of children were breastfed within 1 h of birth across the different districts of India, which varies from the lowest 15% in Sarasvati of Uttar Pradesh state to the highest 94.6% in Thiruvananthapuram of Kerala state. Findings suggest when women did not breastfeed their newborn within the 1 h after his birth, the odds of neonatal deaths were increased by nearly threefold (OR 2.93; 95% CI 1.89, 4.53) in comparison with those neonates who have breastfed within 1 h of birth. Population Attributable Risk estimates that the risk of the neonatal deaths could be reduced to a maximum of 15% when all babies would expose to early breastfeeding from the present level of breastfeeding.

Conclusions

We found that timely initiation of breastfeeding is beneficial for child survival within the first 28 days of birth, including all causes of mortality. Therefore, efforts in formulating an effective policy focusing on early initiation of breastfeeding are needed.

Long Working Hours and the Risk of Chronic Disease

A change in employment trends, in the nature of occupation and in the number of working hours has an impact on the diseases prevalent in people. Using data from a World Health Organization 2007 study on global ageing and adult health, this research looks at the effect of past work histories on the prevalence of selected chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, stroke, angina and depression in India. By using a bivariate and multivariate analysis, this study shows that all the selected chronic diseases were significantly higher in urban areas, especially amongst people who were educated upto a higher secondary level and above and were from the richest wealth quintile. The chances of all these selected chronic diseases, except for depression, were also found to be significantly higher among those who were working in the non-manual sector. It was also found that the expected odds of having diabetes and stroke were significantly higher among those employees who worked for more than eight hours a day than their counterparts who worked for less than eight hours a day after adjusting important confounders. Based on these findings, the study suggests that the government should implement some specific policy measures; and take steps which will help employees cope with harmful work schedules.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

The burden of infectious and cardiovascular diseases in India from 2004 to 2014

OBJECTIVES

In India, both communicable and non-communicable diseases have been argued to disproportionately affect certain socioeconomic strata of the population. Using the 60th (2004) and 71st (2014) rounds of the National Sample Survey, this study assessed the balance between infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) from 2004 to 2014, as well as changes in the disease burden in various socioeconomic and demographic subpopulations.

METHODS

Prevalence rates, hospitalization rates, case fatality rates, and share of in-patients deaths were estimated to compare the disease burdens at these time points. Logistic regression and multivariate decomposition were used to evaluate changes in disease burden across various socio-demographic and socioeconomic groups.

RESULTS

Evidence of stagnation in the infectious disease burden and rapid increase in the CVD burden was observed. Along with the drastic increase in case fatality rate, share of in-patients deaths became more skewed towards CVD from 2004 to 2014. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated a significant shift of the chance of succumbing to CVD from the privileged class, comprising non-Scheduled Castes and Tribes, more highly educated individuals, and households with higher monthly expenditures, towards the underprivileged population. Decomposition indicated that a change in the probability of suffering from CVD among the subcategories of age, social groups, educational status, and monthly household expenditures contributed to the increase in CVD prevalence more than compositional changes of the population from 2004 to 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the ongoing tendency of CVD to occur in older population segments, and also confirms the theory of diffusion, according to which an increased probability of suffering from CVD has trickled down the socioeconomic gradient.

Strategies to Improve Child Immunization via Antenatal Care Visits in India: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Numerous studies have examined the empirical evidence concerning the influence of demographic and socio-economic factors influencing child immunization, but no documentation is available which shows the actual impact of antenatal care (ANC) visits on subsequent child immunization. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the net impact of ANC visits on subsequent utilization of child immunization after removing the presence of selection bias. Nationwide data from India's latest National Family Health Survey conducted during 2005-06 is used for the present study. The analysis has been carried out in the two separate models, in the first model 1-2 ANC visit and in the second model three or more ANC visits has been compared with no visit. We have used propensity score matching method with a counterfactual model that assesses the actual ANC visits effect on treated (ANC visits) and untreated groups (no ANC visit), and have employed Mantel-Haenszel bounds to examine whether result would be free from hidden bias or not. Using matched sample analysis result shows that child immunization among the groups of women who have completed 1-2 ANC visits and those who had more than two visits was about 13 percent and 19 percent respectively, higher than the group of women who have not made any ANC visit. Findings of nearest neighbor matching with replacement method, which completely eliminated the bias, indicate that selection bias present in data set leads to overestimates the positive effects of ANC visits on child immunization. Result based on Mantel-Haenszel bounds method suggest that if around 19 percent bias would be involved in the result then also we could observe the true positive effect of 1-2 ANC visits on child immunization. This also indicates that antenatal clinics are the conventional platforms for educating pregnant women on the benefits of child immunization.

Determinants of unwanted pregnancies in India using matched case-control designs

BACKGROUND

In India, while the total fertility rate has been declined from 3.39 in 1992-93 to 2.68 in 2005-06, the prevalence of unintended pregnancy is still stagnant over the same period. A review of existing literature shows that within the country, there are variations in fertility preferences between different regions. Also there is a strong argument that the availability of a health facility at the village level plays an important role in reshaping the fertility behavior of women. Keeping in mind the fact that there is no information at the village level (which is the lowest geographical boundary) in the recent round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), the specific objective of this study is to examine the impact of individual and household level variables on unwanted pregnancies without controlling the village level variation. Further, once the village level variation (i.e. unobserved variation) has been controlled, it is necessary to study whether there has been any alteration in the contribution of factors from earlier results of without adjusting the village level variation.

METHODS

This paper attempts to examine the associated factors of unwanted pregnancies, without matching the village and after matching the village, by using the matched case-control design. Nationwide data from India's latest NFHS-3 conducted during 2005-06 was used for the present study. Frequency and pair wise matching has been applied in the present paper and conditional logistic regression analysis was used to work out the models and to find out the factors associated with unwanted pregnancies.

RESULTS

A major finding of this study was that 1:3 case-control study (without matching the village) shows that women belonging to non Hindu/Muslim religion, Scheduled Tribe, women who have experienced child loss and if the previous birth interval is 24 through 36 months were significant predictors of unwanted pregnancy. However, this relationship did not hold significant after village wise matching. Other factors such as Muslim religion, women and their partners with high school education and above, women belonging to the richest wealth index and if the sex of the last child was female, emerge as significant predictors of unwanted pregnancies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study clearly underscores the importance of adjusting the village (PSU) level variation in explaining unwanted pregnancies.