'Skeletal Age' for mapping the impact of fracture on mortality

Background

Fragility fracture is associated with an increased risk of mortality, but mortality is not part of doctor-patient communication. Here, we introduce a new concept called 'Skeletal Age' as the age of an individual's skeleton resulting from a fragility fracture to convey the combined risk of fracture and fracture-associated mortality for an individual.

Methods

We used the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register which includes the whole-country data of 1,667,339 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1950, who were followed up to December 31, 2016 for incident low-trauma fracture and mortality. Skeletal age is defined as the sum of chronological age and the number of years of life lost (YLL) associated with a fracture. Cox's proportional hazards model was employed to determine the hazard of mortality associated with a specific fracture for a given risk profile, and the hazard was then transformed into YLL using the Gompertz law of mortality.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 16 years, there had been 307,870 fractures and 122,744 post-fracture deaths. A fracture was associated with between 1 and 7 years of life lost, with the loss being greater in men than women. Hip fractures incurred the greatest loss of life years. For instance, a 60-year-old individual with a hip fracture is estimated to have a skeletal age of 66 for men and 65 for women. Skeletal Age was estimated for each age and fracture site stratified by gender.

Conclusions

We propose 'Skeletal Age' as a new metric to assess the impact of a fragility fracture on an individual's life expectancy. This approach will enhance doctor-patient risk communication about the risks associated with osteoporosis.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia and Amgen Competitive Grant Program 2019.

Association of Multimorbidity and Excess Mortality After Fractures Among Danish Adults

IMPORTANCE

Limited knowledge about interactions among health disorders impedes optimal patient care. Because comorbidities are common among patients 50 years and older with fractures, these fractures provide a useful setting for studying interactions among disorders.

OBJECTIVE

To define multimorbidity clusters at the time of fracture and quantify the interaction between multimorbidity and fracture in association with postfracture excess mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This nationwide cohort study included 307 870 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1951, who had an incident low-trauma fracture between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2014, and were followed up through December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from February 1 to March 31, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Fracture and 32 predefined chronic diseases recorded within 5 years before the index fracture were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Death was ascertained from the Danish Register on Causes of Death. Latent class analysis was conducted to identify multimorbidity clusters. Relative survival analysis was used to quantify excess mortality associated with the combination of multimorbidity and fractures at specific sites.

RESULTS

Among the 307 870 participants identified with incident fractures, 95 372 were men (31.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 72.3 [11.2] years) and 212 498 were women (69.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 74.9 [11.2] years). During a median of 6.5 (IQR, 3.0-11.0) years of follow-up, 41 017 men (43.0%) and 81 727 women (38.5%) died. Almost half of patients with fractures (42.9%) had at least 2 comorbidities. Comorbidities at fracture were categorized as low-multimorbidity (60.5% in men and 66.5% in women), cardiovascular (23.7% in men and 23.5% in women), diabetic (5.6% in men and 5.0% in women), malignant (5.1% in men and 5.0% in women), and mixed hepatic and/or inflammatory (5.1% in men only) clusters. These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those with earlier-stage disease. Multimorbidity and proximal or lower leg fractures were associated with increased mortality risk, with the highest excess mortality found in patients with hip fracture in the malignant cluster (1-year excess mortality: 40.8% [95% CI: 38.1%-43.6%]). The combination of multimorbidity and fracture compounded the association with mortality, conferring much greater risk than either alone.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Concomitant illnesses were common and clustered into distinct multimorbidity clusters that were associated with excess postfracture mortality. The compound contribution of multimorbidity to postfracture excess mortality highlights the need for more comprehensive approaches in these high-risk patients. The analytical approach applied to fracture could also be used to examine other sentinel health events.

Cost Effectiveness of Patient Self-Managed Warfarin Compared with Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Atrial Fibrillation: An Economic Evaluation in a Danish Healthcare Sector Setting

BACKGROUND

Patient self-managed anticoagulant treatment with warfarin (PSM) has been proposed as an alternative to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF); however, direct evidence on the cost effectiveness of PSM compared with DOACs is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of PSM versus DOACs for NVAF patients in the Danish healthcare setting using a model-based cost-utility analysis.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was performed using a decision-analytic model including two treatment alternatives: continuous PSM and DOACs. The analysis was performed from an extended Danish healthcare sector perspective, including patient-paid costs of medication related to the anticoagulant treatment, with a lifetime horizon. Inputs for the model comprised of probabilities of events, costs in Danish estimates, when possible, and effect in utilities. The probabilities of events are primarily based on real-life data from a direct comparison of PSM and DOACs. The results are presented as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with an assumed cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

The base-analysis showed that PSM was dominant, with a decreased cost of £8495 and an increased QALY accumulation of 0.23 per patient (ICER = -£36,935/QALY). All deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated that PSM was dominant or at least cost effective. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that 95% of the iterations were cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study found that PSM is dominant (i.e., both more effective and cost saving) compared with DOACs, adding to the scarce evidence of the comparative cost effectiveness of PSM and DOACs in NVAF.

Predicting involuntary admission among patients with psychotic disorder

Introduction

Involuntary admissions are increasing in numbers across Europe.¹ They can be traumatic for the patients² and are associated with large societal costs.³ Individuals with psychotic disorder are at particularly elevated risk of involuntary admission.

Objectives

This study aims to investigate whether machine learning methods including natural language processing can predict involuntary admission among patients with psychotic disorder.

Methods

We have obtained a dataset based on electronic health records for all patients having had at least one contact with the psychiatric services in the Central Denmark Region from 2011 to 2021. This dataset covers more than 120,000 patients, of which approximately 10,000 have been diagnosed with a psychotic disorder. The dataset contains both structured data, such as diagnoses, blood tests etc., as well as unstructured data (text). We will train machine learning models, basic logistic regression-models as well as state-of-the-art neural networks, to predict involuntary admission after contacts to the psychiatric services.

Results

As the machine learning models are under development, no results are available at this time. Preliminary results are expected in spring 2022.

Conclusions

If involuntary admission can be predicted among patients with psychotic disorder based on data from electronic health records, it will pave the way for potentially preventive interventions. References: 1. Sheridans-Rains, L et al., 2019 2. Frueh, B.C et al., 2005 3. Smith,S., 2020

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Social inequality in type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Faroe Islands: a cross-sectional study

Aims: The Faroe Islands is considered a homogeneous society and has a low Gini coefficient, but the knowledge about the social distribution of health and disease is sparse. In a large population-based sample we investigated: (a) the association between socioeconomic position defined by level of education and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus by self-report in the Faroe Islands; and (b) to what degree lifestyle factors mediate the association. Methods: We used cross-sectional data from the population-based Public Health Survey Faroes 2015 (n=1095). We present odds ratios for type 2 diabetes mellitus by socioeconomic position from logistic regression models. In our main model we adjusted for potential confounders and in a secondary model we additionally adjusted for potential mediating lifestyle factors. Results: Individuals with middle and low levels of education display higher odds ratios of type 2 diabetes mellitus of 2.80 (95% confidence interval 1.32-5.92) and 4.65 (95% confidence interval 1.93-11.17) in adjusted analysis, respectively, compared to their counterparts with high education. After adjustment for potentially mediating lifestyle factors the estimates were attenuated slightly, but a significant statistical association remained, with lifestyle-related mediating factors in total explaining 21% for middle education and 34% for low education participants. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that there may be a social gradient in the distribution of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Faroe Islands, and that the association is partly mediated by lifestyle factors.

Prevalence, geographic distribution, and impact on lifespan of a dilated cardiomyopathy-associated RNA-binding motif protein 20 variant in genotyped dogs

INTRODUCTION

The study objectives were to determine the prevalence and geographic distribution of a dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM)-associated RNA-binding motif protein 20 (RBM20) variant in canine DNA samples submitted for testing and to evaluate the influence of the genotype on cardiac phenotype and lifespan.

ANIMALS

Samples from 2136 dogs including 1834 Standard Schnauzers (SSNZ), 266 Giant Schnauzers (GSNZ), and 36 dogs of other breeds.

METHODS

The University of Missouri Canine Genetics Laboratory's sample-accession spreadsheet and Orthopedic Foundation for Animals' database were retrospectively reviewed for samples submitted for RBM20 genotyping from November, 2013, through May, 2018. Data analyzed included breed, date of birth, RBM20 genotype (homozygous wild-type, heterozygous variant [HET], or homozygous variant [HOM]), geographic origin of submission, pedigree, cardiac phenotype, and date of death or current age if alive.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The RBM20 variant was only detected in SSNZ and GSNZ. A total of 389 SSNZ were variant-positive (prevalence = 21.2%), with 361 HET (19.7%) and 28 HOM (1.5%). Of the HOM SSNZ, DCM was confirmed in 26 of 28 (92.9%), with the remainder lost to follow-up. The median lifespan of HOM SSNZ (3.06 years) was significantly shorter than that for HET (15.11 years) and wild-type (15.18 years) SSNZ. Twenty-six GSNZ were variant-positive (prevalence = 9.8%), with 23 HET (8.6%) and three HOM (1.1%). Nine GSNZ belonged to one family, including the three HOM GSNZ that all had DCM.

CONCLUSIONS

The HOM genotype is associated with DCM and premature death in SSNZ and GSNZ.

Epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early COVID-19 cases, 20 January-19 March 2020, in Bavaria, Germany

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) led to a significant disease burden and disruptions in health systems. We describe the epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Bavaria, Germany. Cases were reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections, reported from 20 January-19 March 2020. The incubation period was estimated using travel history and date of symptom onset. To estimate the serial interval, we identified pairs of index and secondary cases. By 19 March, 3546 cases were reported. A large proportion was exposed abroad (38%), causing further local transmission. Median incubation period of 256 cases with exposure abroad was 3.8 days (95%CI: 3.5-4.2). For 95% of infected individuals, symptom onset occurred within 10.3 days (95%CI: 9.1-11.8) after exposure. The median serial interval, using 53 pairs, was 3.5 days (95%CI: 3.0-4.2; mean: 3.9, s.d.: 2.2). Travellers returning to Germany had an important influence on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bavaria in early 2020. Especially in times of low incidence, public health agencies should identify holiday destinations, and areas with ongoing local transmission, to monitor potential importation of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Travellers returning from areas with ongoing community transmission should be advised to quarantine to prevent re-introductions of COVID-19.

Serologic markers of Chlamydia trachomatis and other sexually transmitted infections and subsequent ovarian cancer risk: Results from the EPIC cohort

A substantial proportion of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) arises in the fallopian tube and other epithelia of the upper genital tract; these epithelia may incur damage and neoplastic transformation after sexually transmitted infections (STI) and pelvic inflammatory disease. We investigated the hypothesis that past STI infection, particularly Chlamydia trachomatis, is associated with higher EOC risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort including 791 cases and 1669 matched controls. Serum antibodies against C. trachomatis, Mycoplasma genitalium, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and human papillomavirus (HPV) 16, 18 and 45 were assessed using multiplex fluorescent bead-based serology. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing women with positive vs. negative serology. A total of 40% of the study population was seropositive to at least one STI. Positive serology to C. trachomatis Pgp3 antibodies was not associated with EOC risk overall, but with higher risk of the mucinous histotype (RR = 2.30 [95% CI = 1.22-4.32]). Positive serology for chlamydia heat shock protein 60 (cHSP60-1) was associated with higher risk of EOC overall (1.36 [1.13-1.64]) and with the serous subtype (1.44 [1.12-1.85]). None of the other evaluated STIs were associated with EOC risk overall; however, HSV-2 was associated with higher risk of endometrioid EOC (2.35 [1.24-4.43]). The findings of our study suggest a potential role of C. trachomatis in the carcinogenesis of serous and mucinous EOC, while HSV-2 might promote the development of endometrioid disease.

The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes in European populations: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D.

Dietary and Circulating Fatty Acids and Ovarian Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

Fatty acids impact obesity, estrogens, and inflammation, which are risk factors for ovarian cancer. Few epidemiologic studies have investigated the association of fatty acids with ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 1,486 incident ovarian cancer cases were identified. Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for ovarian cancer risk factors were used to estimate HRs of ovarian cancer across quintiles of intake of fatty acids. False discovery rate was computed to control for multiple testing. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs of ovarian cancer across tertiles of plasma fatty acids among 633 cases and two matched controls in a nested case-control analysis.

RESULTS

A positive association was found between ovarian cancer and intake of industrial trans elaidic acid [HR comparing fifth with first quintileQ5-Q1 = 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03-1.62; P trend = 0.02, q-value = 0.06]. Dietary intakes of n-6 linoleic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.01-1.21; P trend = 0.03) and n-3 α-linolenic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.05-1.34; P trend = 0.007) from deep-frying fats were also positively associated with ovarian cancer. Suggestive associations were reported for circulating elaidic (OR comparing third with first tertileT3-T1 = 1.39; 95% CI = 0.99-1.94; P trend = 0.06) and α-linolenic acids (ORT3-T1 = 1.30; 95% CI = 0.98-1.72; P trend = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher intakes and circulating levels of industrial trans elaidic acid, and higher intakes of linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid from deep-frying fat, may be associated with greater risk of ovarian cancer.

IMPACT

If causal, eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids could offer a straightforward public health action for reducing ovarian cancer risk.

Capture-recapture study to estimate the true incidence of tuberculosis in Portugal, 2018

Accurate estimation of the true number of cases of an infectious disease is essential to plan and efficiently allocate available resources. This study aims to improve the Portuguese surveillance system for tuberculosis (TB) by identifying gaps in TB epidemiological surveillance at the national level. We estimated annual TB incidence using a capture-recapture method to assess the sensitivity of national TB surveillance.

Using probabilistic record linkage between two data sources, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) and National Tuberculosis Program Surveillance System (SVIG-TB), we extracted TB diagnosed cases data for calendar year 2018. All reported TB cases were included, classified as confirmed, probable or possible. A two-source capture-recapture analysis using a log-linear model was performed to estimate the number of unobserved TB cases in Portugal and of the proportion identified by the current TB surveillance system.

Between the two datasets, we found 896 TB cases (of a total of 2170 cases) that could not be matched (37.5% SINAVE only, 62.5% SVIG only). Based on the log-linear model, it was estimated that there were 148 unobserved TB cases (95% confidence interval 127.96 - 171.31). Therefore, the estimated true number of TB cases in 2018 is 2318, so current surveillance has a sensitivity of 93.6%. Based on these findings, the TB incidence in Portugal is estimated to be 22.55 cases per 100 000 inhabitants.

Capture-recapture methods are useful in estimating annual TB incidence in high-resource settings. Although the two TB surveillance systems capture the majority of TB cases in Portugal, we might still be underestimating the true number of TB cases. Because TB is a high impact infectious disease, precise incidence estimates are crucial to allocate treatment and prevention resources and guide health policies.

Key messages

CRC method showed that Portugal is a TB low incidence country. Epidemiological surveillance systems should have a high sensitivity in order to allocate efficiently resources available.

OR13-03 Understanding Why Older People with Low Trauma Fractures Die Prematurely

There is increasing evidence that all proximal and not just hip fractures are associated with increased mortality risk. However, the cause of this increased mortality is unknown. We sought to determine the post-fracture trajectories of subsequent hospital admissions and mortality to develop an understanding of why patients with non-hip fractures die prematurely.

This nationwide Danish population-based study included all individuals aged 50+ years who sustained an incident fragility fracture between 2001 and 2014. High-trauma fractures or individuals with fracture prior to 2001 were excluded. Fracture patients were matched 1:4 by sex, age and comorbidity status with non-fracture subjects alive at the time of fracture. Comorbidities included 33 unique medical conditions of the Charlson or Elixhauser comorbidity index. We modelled the contribution of specific fractures on the risk of subsequent admissions or death within the following 2 years.

There were 212,498 women and 95,372 men with fracture followed by 30,677 and 19,519 deaths, respectively over 163,482 and 384,995 person-years of follow up. Mean age at fracture was 72± 11 for women and 75± 11 for men. Proximal fractures including hip, femur, pelvis, rib, clavicle and humerus had increased mortality compared with their matched non-fracture counterparts with HRs ranging from 1.5-4.0, while distal fractures such as ankle, forearm, hand or foot fractures had similar or lower mortality risk.

Almost 75% of men and 60% of women had ≥1 comorbidity. For every additional comorbidity, risk of mortality increased for all fracture types. However, only for proximal fractures did the fracture itself independently increase mortality risk over and above co-morbidity status.

The 2-yr post fracture admission and mortality patterns differed between proximal and distal fractures. Proximal, but not distal fracture subjects had greater risk of any major hospital admission (including cardiovascular disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, pneumonia and pulmonary disease) within 2 years compared with their non-fracture counterparts. Distal fractures in general had similar admission patterns as their non-fractured matched counterparts.

Furthermore, 2 year mortality risk was increased for proximal fractures whether or not they were admitted to hospital post fracture. By contrast, mortality risk was similar or reduced for distal fractures compared with non-fracture controls.

This study has not only confirmed the increased mortality following proximal fractures but has demonstrated differing clinical trajectories between proximal and distal fractures that contribute to this increased mortality. These findings provide important insights as to why proximal fracture subjects die prematurely that may lead to specific avenues for intervention.

Is telehealthcare for heart failure patients cost-effective? An economic evaluation alongside the Danish TeleCare North heart failure trial

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of telehealthcare in heart failure patients as add-on to usual care.

DESIGN

A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a public payer perspective alongside the randomised controlled TeleCare North trial.

SETTING

The North Denmark Region, Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 274 heart failure patients with self-reported New York Heart Association class II-IV.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients in the intervention group were provided with a Telekit consisting of a tablet, a digital blood pressure monitor, and a scale and were instructed to perform measurements one to two times a week. The responsibility of the education, instructions and monitoring of the heart failure (HF) patients was placed on municipality nurses trained in HF and telemonitoring. Both groups received usual care.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost-effectiveness was reported as incremental net monetary benefit (NMB). A micro-costing approach was applied to evaluate the derived savings in the first year in the public health sector. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained were estimated using the EuroQol 5-Dimensions 5-Levels questionnaire at baseline and at a 1-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Data for 274 patients were included in the main analysis. The telehealthcare solution provided a positive incremental NMB of £5164. The 1-year adjusted QALY difference between the telehealthcare solution and the usual care group was 0.0034 (95% CI: -0.0711 to 0.0780). The adjusted difference in costs was -£5096 (95% CI: -8736 to -1456) corresponding to a reduction in total healthcare costs by 35%. All sensitivity analyses showed the main results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

The TeleCare North solution for monitoring HF was highly cost-effective. There were significant cost savings on hospitalisations, primary care contacts and total costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02860013.

Development and validation of circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker.

METHODS

We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC.

RESULT

The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Haem iron intake and risk of lung cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that haem iron, which is found predominantly in red meat and increases endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds, may be positively associated with lung cancer. The objective was to examine the relationship between haem iron intake and lung cancer risk using detailed smoking history data and serum cotinine to control for potential confounding.

METHODS

In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 416,746 individuals from 10 countries completed demographic and dietary questionnaires at recruitment. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident lung cancer (n = 3731) risk relative to haem iron, non-haem iron, and total dietary iron intake. A corresponding analysis was conducted among a nested subset of 800 lung cancer cases and 1489 matched controls for whom serum cotinine was available.

RESULTS

Haem iron was associated with lung cancer risk, including after adjustment for details of smoking history (time since quitting, number of cigarettes per day): as a continuous variable (HR per 0.3 mg/1000 kcal 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.07), and in the highest versus lowest quintile (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32; trend across quintiles: P = 0.035). In contrast, non-haem iron intake was related inversely with lung cancer risk; however, this association attenuated after adjustment for smoking history. Additional adjustment for serum cotinine did not considerably alter the associations detected in the nested case-control subset.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater haem iron intake may be modestly associated with lung cancer risk.

[Content of a weekly morbidity and mortality conference in visceral surgery]

BACKGROUND

Morbidity and mortality (M&M) conferences are essential instruments for quality improvement in surgical departments; however, publications concerning the detailed contents of M&M conferences are rare and have not been published in the German language.

OBJECTIVE

Detailed analysis of the content of a weekly M&M conference in a department of general and visceral surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data from a weekly M&M conference were prospectively collected. Epidemiological data, diagnosis, type of surgery, morbidity, postoperative course and mortality were documented for each patient. Type (surgical vs. medicinal) and severity (I-V according to Clavien-Dindo classification) of complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014 a total of 761 out of 11,470 patients with a mean age of 62.2 (15.9) years were discussed in the M&M conferences. Of the M&M patients 39.4% were female, 88.9% showed surgical complications while 28.9% were diagnosed with a medical complication and 91 patients (12.0%) died. Complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo I: 27.9%, II: 10.5%, III: 37.7%, IV: 12% and V: 12.0%. Most surgical complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo I (30.0%) and Clavien-Dindo III (40.9%), medical complications were most often classified as Clavien-Dindo IV (29.6%) and V (34.6%). Wound healing impairment (41%), pulmonary complications (16.6%), anastomotic leakage (15.6%), septic (8.9%) and cardiac (8.0%) complications were discussed most often. Cardiac, pulmonary and septic complications were the main cause of morbidity in deceased patients.

CONCLUSION

The M&M conferences display a morbidity profile of each surgical department. Depending on the speciality and focus of a surgical department, the content of the M&M conferences will vary. Detailed knowledge about the content of M&M conferences enable specific measures to be taken to improve quality and patient safety.

Predicting Circulating CA125 Levels among Healthy Premenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

Cancer antigen 125 (CA125) is the most promising ovarian cancer screening biomarker to date. Multiple studies reported CA125 levels vary by personal characteristics, which could inform personalized CA125 thresholds. However, this has not been well described in premenopausal women.

METHODS

We evaluated predictors of CA125 levels among 815 premenopausal women from the New England Case Control Study (NEC). We developed linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) CA125 prediction models and externally validated an abridged model restricting to available predictors among 473 premenopausal women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC).

RESULTS

The final linear CA125 prediction model included age, race, tubal ligation, endometriosis, menstrual phase at blood draw, and fibroids, which explained 7% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between observed and predicted CA125 levels based on the abridged model (including age, race, and menstrual phase at blood draw) had similar correlation coefficients in NEC (r = 0.22) and in EPIC (r = 0.22). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, tubal ligation, endometriosis, prior personal cancer diagnosis, family history of ovarian cancer, number of miscarriages, menstrual phase at blood draw, and smoking status with AUC of 0.83. The abridged dichotomous model (including age, number of miscarriages, menstrual phase at blood draw, and smoking status) showed similar AUCs in NEC (0.73) and in EPIC (0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a combination of factors associated with CA125 levels in premenopausal women.

IMPACT

Our model could be valuable in identifying healthy women likely to have elevated CA125 and consequently improve its specificity for ovarian cancer screening.

The insulin-like growth factor family and breast cancer prognosis: A prospective cohort study among postmenopausal women in Denmark

OBJECTIVE

Circulating levels of insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) have been associated with breast cancer (BC) risk. The evidence in relation to BC prognosis is limited. We aimed to evaluate the association between pre-diagnostic serum levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2, IGFBP-3 and BC prognosis (i.e. recurrence, BC specific mortality and all-cause mortality) among women diagnosed with BC. We hypothesized that higher serum levels of IGFs and IGFBPs were associated with poor BC prognosis and that the associations were modified by estrogen receptor (ER) status.

DESIGN

From the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, 412 postmenopausal women diagnosed with incident BC within 5 years of cohort baseline (1993-1997) were identified. Baseline serum samples were analyzed for IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3. Follow-up was carried out through 2014 by linkage to national Danish registries. Exposures were related to BC prognosis by Cox Proportional Hazard models; effect modification by ER status was investigated and sensitivity analyses by follow-up time were made.

RESULTS

During a median of 15 years, 106 women experienced recurrence and 172 died (118 due to BC). Overall, no associations were observed between IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2, IGFBP-3 and BC prognosis and no effect modification by ER status was observed. However, higher levels of IGF-II were associated with higher BC specific mortality [Hazard Ratio (HR) (95% Confidence Intervals (CI)): 1.43 (1.01-2.04)] within 10 years of follow-up. Likewise, higher levels of IGFBP-2 were associated with higher BC specific mortality [HR (95% CI): 1.87 (1.19-2.94)] within 5 years of follow-up. In contrast, higher levels of IGFBP-3 were associated with lower risk of recurrence [HR (95% CI): 0.76 (0.60-0.97)] at 5 years of follow-up and BC specific mortality [HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.65-0.98)] within 10 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study did not support an association between higher serum levels of IGFs, IGFBPs and adverse BC prognosis. However, it is possible that the role of the IGF family in the etiology of the 5-10 year BC prognosis is different from that of longer-term BC prognosis.

Vitamin D levels and cancer incidence in 217,244 individuals from primary health care in Denmark

Vitamin D has been linked to cancer development in both pre-clinical and epidemiological studies. Our study examines the association between serum levels of vitamin D and cancer incidence in the Capital Region of Denmark. Individuals who had vitamin D analyzed at The Copenhagen General Practitioners Laboratory between April 2004 and January 2010 were linked to Danish registries with end of follow-up date at Dec 31st 2014, excluding individuals with pre-existing cancer. Cox regression models adjusted for age in one-year intervals, sex, month of sampling, and Charlson Comorbidity Index were applied. The study population of 217,244 individuals had a median vitamin D level of 46 nmol/L (IQR 27-67 nmol/L). Non-melanoma skin cancer was the most frequent form of cancer, followed by breast-, lung-, and prostate cancers. No associations were found between increments of 10 nmol/L vitamin D and incidence of breast, colorectal, urinary, ovary or corpus uteri cancer. However, higher levels of vitamin D were associated with higher incidence of non-melanoma (HR 1.09 [1.09-1.1]) and melanoma skin cancer (HR 1.1 [1.08-1.13]) as well as prostate (HR 1.05 [1.03-1.07]) and hematological cancers (HR 1.03 [1.01-1.06]), but with lower incidence of lung cancer (HR 0.95 [0.93-0.97]). In our study, vitamin D levels are not associated with the incidence of several major cancer types, but higher levels are significantly associated with a higher incidence of skin, prostate, and hematological cancers as well as a lower incidence of lung cancer. These results do not support an overall protective effect against cancer by vitamin D.

Vitamin D Status and Seasonal Variation among Danish Children and Adults: A Descriptive Study

The aim of the present study was to describe vitamin D status and seasonal variation in the general Danish population. In this study, 3092 persons aged 2 to 69 years (2565 adults, 527 children) had blood drawn twice (spring and autumn) between 2012 and 2014. A sub-sample of participants had blood samples taken monthly over a year. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry, and information on supplement use was assessed from questionnaires. Seasonal variations in 25(OH)D concentrations were evaluated graphically and descriptively, and status according to age, sex, and supplement use was described. It was found that 86% of both adults and children were vitamin D-sufficient in either spring and or/autumn; however, many had a spring concentration below 50 nmol/L. A wide range of 25(OH)D concentrations were found in spring and autumn, with very low and very high values in both seasons. Among adults, women in general had higher median 25(OH)D concentrations than men. Furthermore, vitamin D supplement use was substantial and affected the median concentrations markedly, more so during spring than autumn. Seasonal variation was thus found to be substantial, and bi-seasonal measurements are vital in order to capture the sizable fluctuations in vitamin D status in this Nordic population.

Social inequality and fractures-secular trends in the Danish population: a case-control study

We examined links between markers of social inequality and fracture risk in the Danish population, demonstrating that high income and being married are associated with a significantly lower risk.

INTRODUCTION

We explored whether the risk of hip, humerus, and wrist fracture was associated with markers of inequality using data from Danish health registries.

METHODS

All patients 50 years or older with a primary hip (ICD10 S720, S721, S722, and S729) humerus (ICD10 S422, S423, S424, S425, S426, and S427), or wrist (ICD10: S52) fracture were identified from 1/1/1995 to 31/12/2011. Fracture patients were matched 1:1 by age, sex, and year of fracture, to a non-fracture control. Markers of inequality were as follows: income (fifths); marital status (married, divorced, widowed, or unmarried); area of residence (remote, rural, intermediate, or urban). Conditional logistic regression was used to investigate associations between these exposures, and risk of fracture, adjusting for covariates (smoking, alcohol, and Charlson co-morbidity). Interactions were fitted between exposure and covariates where appropriate.

RESULTS

A total of 189,838 fracture patients (37,500 hip, 45,602 humerus, and 106,736 wrist) and 189,838 controls were included. Mean age was 73.9 years (hip), 67.5 years (humerus), and 65.3 years (wrist). High income (5th quintile) was significantly associated with a lower odds ratio of all three fractures, compared to average income (3rd quintile). Married subjects had a significantly decreased odds ratio across all three fractures. However, no overall secular difference was observed regarding the influence of the markers of inequality.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, we have demonstrated important, stable associations between social inequality, assessed using income, marital status, and area of residence, and fracture at the population level. These findings can inform approaches to healthcare, and suggest that much thought should be given to novel interventions aimed especially at those living alone, and ideally societal measures to reduce social inequality.

Persistence of Excess Mortality Following Individual Nonhip Fractures: A Relative Survival Analysis

CONTEXT

Little is known about long-term excess mortality following fragility nonhip fractures.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to determine which fracture was associated with excess mortality and for how long the postfracture excess mortality persisted.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

This nationwide registry-based follow-up study included all individuals in Denmark aged 50+ years who first experienced fragility fractures in 2001 and were followed up for up to 10 years for their mortality risk.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The contribution of fracture to mortality at precise postfracture time intervals was examined using relative survival analysis, accounting for time-related mortality changes in the background population.

RESULTS

There were 21,123 women (aged 72 ± 13 years) and 9481 men (aged 67 ± 12 years) with an incident fragility fracture in 2001, followed by 10,668 and 4745 deaths, respectively. Excess mortality was observed following all proximal and lower leg fractures. The majority of deaths occurred within the first year after fracture, and thereafter excess mortality gradually declined. Hip fractures were associated with the highest excess mortality (33% and 20% at 1 year after fracture in men and women, respectively). One-year excess mortality after fracture of a femur or pelvis was 20% to 25%; vertebrae, 10%; humerus, rib, or clavicle, 5% to 10%; and lower leg, 3%. A significant although smaller excess mortality was still observed until 10 years for hip fractures and ~5 years after femur, other proximal, and lower leg fractures.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the important contribution of a wide variety of fragility fractures to long-term excess mortality and thus the potential for benefit from early intervention.

Tumor-associated autoantibodies as early detection markers for ovarian cancer? A prospective evaluation

Immuno-proteomic screening has identified several tumor-associated autoantibodies (AAb) that may have diagnostic capacity for invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, with AAbs to P53 proteins and cancer-testis antigens (CTAGs) as prominent examples. However, the early detection potential of these AAbs has been insufficiently explored in prospective studies. We performed ELISA measurements of AAbs to CTAG1A, CTAG2, P53 and NUDT11 proteins, for 194 patients with ovarian cancer and 705 matched controls from the European EPIC cohort, using serum samples collected up to 36 months prior to diagnosis under usual care. CA125 was measured using electrochemo-luminiscence. Diagnostic discrimination statistics were calculated by strata of lead-time between blood collection and diagnosis. With lead times ≤6 months, ovarian cancer detection sensitivity at 0.98 specificity (SE98) varied from 0.19 [95% CI 0.08-0.40] for CTAG1A, CTAG2 and NUDT1 to 0.23 [0.10-0.44] for P53 (0.33 [0.11-0.68] for high-grade serous tumors). However, at longer lead-times, the ability of these AAb markers to distinguish future ovarian cancer cases from controls declined rapidly; at lead times >1 year, SE98 estimates were close to zero (all invasive cases, range: 0.01-0.11). Compared to CA125 alone, combined logistic regression scores of AAbs and CA125 did not improve detection sensitivity at equal level of specificity. The added value of these selected AAbs as markers for ovarian cancer beyond CA125 for early detection is therefore limited.

Marker free model-based radiostereometric analysis for evaluation of hip joint kinematics: A validation study

Objectives

To validate the precision of digitally reconstructed radiograph (DRR) radiostereometric analysis (RSA) and the model-based method (MBM) RSA with respect to benchmark marker-based (MM) RSA for evaluation of kinematics in the native hip joint.

Methods

Seven human cadaveric hemipelves were CT scanned and bone models were segmented. Tantalum beads were placed in the pelvis and proximal femoral bone. RSA recordings of the hips were performed during flexion, adduction and internal rotation. Stereoradiographic recordings were all analyzed with DRR, MBM and MM. Migration results for the MBM and DRR with respect to MM were compared. Precision was assessed as systematic bias (mean difference) and random variation (Pitman’s test for equal variance).

Results

A total of 288 dynamic RSA images were analyzed. Systematic bias for DRR and MBM with respect to MM in translations (p < 0.018 mm) and rotations (p < 0.009°) were approximately 0. Pitman’s test showed lower random variation in all degrees of freedom for DRR compared with MBM (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Systematic error was approximately 0 for both DRR or MBM. However, precision of DRR was statistically significantly better than MBM. Since DRR does not require marker insertion it can be used for investigation of preoperative hip kinematics in comparison with the postoperative results after joint preserving hip surgery. 

Cite this article: L. Hansen, S. De Raedt, P. B. Jørgensen, B. Mygind-Klavsen, B. Kaptein, M. Stilling. Marker free model-based radiostereometric analysis for evaluation of hip joint kinematics: A validation study. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:379–387. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0268.R1.

Anti-CA15.3 and Anti-CA125 Antibodies and Ovarian Cancer Risk: Results from the EPIC Cohort

Background: Neoplastic and non-neoplastic events may raise levels of mucins, CA15.3, and CA125, and generate antibodies against them, but their impact on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk has not been fully defined.Methods: CA15.3, CA125, and IgG1 antibodies against them were measured in 806 women who developed EOC and 1,927 matched controls from the European Prospective Investigation of Nutrition and Cancer. Associations between epidemiologic factors and anti-mucin antibodies were evaluated using generalized linear models; EOC risks associated with anti-mucin antibodies, by themselves or in combination with respective antigens, were evaluated using conditional logistic regression.Results: In controls, lower antibodies against both mucins were associated with current smoking; and, in postmenopausal women, higher levels with longer oral contraceptive use and later-age-at and shorter-interval-since last birth. Lower anti-CA15.3 antibodies were associated with higher body mass and, in premenopausal women, more ovulatory cycles. Higher anti-CA15.3 and anti-CA125 antibodies were associated with higher risk for mucinous EOC occurring ≥ 3 years from enrollment. Long-term risk for serous EOC was reduced in women with low CA125 and high anti-CA125 antibodies relative to women with low concentrations of both.Conclusions: We found general support for the hypothesis that anti-mucin antibody levels correlate with risk factors for EOC. Antibodies alone or in combinations with their antigen may predict longer term risk of specific EOC types.Impact: Anti-CA125 and anti-CA15.3 antibodies alone or in perspective of antigens may be informative in the pathogenesis of EOC subtypes, but less useful for informing risk for all EOC. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(7); 790-804. ©2018 AACR.

Abstract 1200: 25OH vitamin D concentrations are associated with both higher and lower incidence of specific cancers

This study examined the association between concentrations of 25OH vitamin D and cancer incidence in individuals from the Capital Region of Denmark who had 25OH vitamin D analyzed in serum via their general practitioner between April 2004 and January 2010 (CopD). CopD data were linked to the Danish Cancer Registry, the National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System as of December 2014.

CopD consists of 246,858 individuals with 25OH vitamin D analyses. Individuals diagnosed with cancer prior to their 25OH vitamin D analysis (N=29,614) were excluded. The population analyzed in the study (217,244 individuals) had a mean level of 25OH vitamin D of 50.2 nmol/L, a mean age of 49.1 years (SD 20.1), female predominance (65.3%), and low comorbidity burden (Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) ≥1 in 20.5%).

Cox regression models with time since blood sampling as the underlying time scale adjusted for age in one year intervals, sex, month of sampling, and CCI as strata variables were performed in SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute, Cary, USA). P-values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

The study population experienced a total of 18,359 incident cancers during the follow-up period. Non-melanoma skin cancer was the most frequent form of cancer, followed by breast-, lung-, and prostate cancer (Table). In the adjusted analysis higher levels of 25OH vitamin D in increments of 10 nmol/L were associated with higher incidence of non-melanoma- and melanoma skin cancer, as well as prostate- and hematological cancers, but lower incidence of lung cancer. Excluding those diagnosed with cancer within 5 years of blood sampling, revealed similar results (Table).

In conclusion, higher concentrations of 25OH vitamin D are associated with both higher and lower incidence of cancer depending on cancer type in CopD. Thus, in a population from general practice we find higher 25OH vitamin D concentrations are associated with the incidence of skin-, prostate and hematological cancers.

Hazard ratios (HR) per 10nmol/L increase in 25OH vitamin D.Adjusted HR for allHR for cancer after 5+ yearsN casesHR95% ClpN casesHR95% ClpSkin cancerNon-melanoma50451.091.09-1.10&lt;0.000110621.111.09-1.13&lt;0.0001Melanoma6841.101.08-1.13&lt;0.00011301.141.08-1.20&lt;0.0001Sex specific cancersBreast21671.000.99-1.020.644551.020.99-1.050.21Ovary2540.990.94-1.030.58530.980.89-1.080.68C. Uteri3470.990.96-1.030.71900.990.92-1.060.71Prostate14701.051.03-1.07&lt;0.00012211.091.04-1.150.0002Tobacco related cancersLung17070.950.93-0.97&lt;0.00013180.930.89-0.980.003Colon11080.980.96-1.000.102220.970.93-1.030.32Rectum4610.980.94-1.010.18880.980.91-1.060.67Urinary10160.990.96-1.010.342130.980.93-1.040.50Other cancersHematological9681.031.01-1.060.0041811.081.03-1.130.002Central Nervous System incl. eye6891.000.98-1.030.871441.000.95-1.060.94

Citation Format: Fie J. Vojdeman, Christian M. Madsen, Darshana Durup, Kirsten Frederiksen, Anja Olsen, Louise Hansen, Anne-Marie Heegaard, Bent S. Lind, Anne Tjønneland, Henrik L. Jørgensen, Peter Schwarz. 25OH vitamin D concentrations are associated with both higher and lower incidence of specific cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 1200.

Long-term benefits and risks of parathyroid hormone treatment in compliant osteoporotic patients. A Danish national register based cohort study

PURPOSE

Medical treatment of osteoporosis should preferably be both effective and have minimal side effects. The aim of the present study was to examine long-term benefits and risks of parathyroid hormone (PTH) treatment in compliant patients.

METHODS

This is a nationwide retrospective cohort study based on national registers in which we identified 1739 patients treated with PTH (2003-2010) (index cases) for at least 18 months and with a medication possession rate of > 0.8. For comparison, patients treated with bisphosphonate (BP) (n = 13,131) and anti-osteoporotic treatment-naïve controls (n = 12,721) were selected. Incidence of fractures, drug consumption, and comorbidity were compared between the three cohorts. Mean follow-up of the PTH-treated patients was 4.3 years (range 1.8-8.7 years).

RESULTS

Before initiation of treatment, PTH patients had a significantly higher Charlson comorbidity index score and more osteoporotic fractures than both BP patients and controls. No difference was detected in the incidence of fractures during PTH treatment or years after between PTH patients and BP patients. No significant difference in the use of drugs was seen between PTH and BP patients, except for PPI intake which was higher in PTH patients. No significant increases were found in the incidence of cancers or other ICD-10 diagnoses among PTH-treated patients in comparison with both BP and controls.

CONCLUSION

Overall, PTH treatment is effective and safe. Following PTH treatment in compliant patients, neither fracture incidence nor drug consumption differed between PTH-treated and BP-treated patients, despite the fact that PTH-treated patients had more severe osteoporosis. No increased incidence of malignant diseases or other diseases was detected.

Ovarian cancer early detection by circulating CA125 in the context of anti-CA125 autoantibody levels: Results from the EPIC cohort

CA125 is the best ovarian cancer early detection marker to date; however, sensitivity is limited and complementary markers are required to improve discrimination between ovarian cancer cases and non-cases. Anti-CA125 autoantibodies are observed in circulation. Our objective was to evaluate whether these antibodies (1) can serve as early detection markers, providing evidence of an immune response to a developing tumor, and (2) modify the discriminatory capacity of CA125 by either masking CA125 levels (resulting in lower discrimination) or acting synergistically to improve discrimination between cases and non-cases. We investigated these objectives using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC) including 250 cases diagnosed within 4 years of blood collection and up to four matched controls. Circulating CA125 antigen and antibody levels were quantified using an electrochemiluminescence assay. Adjusted areas under the curve (aAUCs) by 2-year lag-time intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression calibrated toward the absolute risk estimates from a pre-existing epidemiological risk model as an offset-variable. Anti-CA125 levels alone did not discriminate cases from controls. For cases diagnosed <2 years after blood collection, discrimination by CA125 antigen was suggestively higher with higher anti-CA125 levels (aAUC, highest antibody tertile: 0.84 [0.76-0.92]; lowest tertile: 0.76 [0.67-0.86]; phet  = 0.06). We provide the first evidence of potentially synergistic discrimination effects of CA125 and anti-CA125 antibodies in ovarian early detection. If these findings are replicated, evaluating CA125 in the context of its antibody may improve ovarian cancer early detection.

Controlled population-based comparative study of USA and international adult [55-74] neurological deaths 1989-2014

Objectives

A population‐based controlled study to determine whether adult (55‐74 years) neurological disease deaths are continuing to rise and are there significant differences between America and the twenty developed countries 1989‐91 and 2012‐14.

Method

Total Neurological Deaths (TND) rates contrasted against control Cancer and Circulatory Disease Deaths (CDD) extrapolated from WHO data. Confidence intervals compare USA and the other countries over the period. The Over‐75's TND and population increases are examined as a context for the 55‐74 outcomes.

Results

Male neurological deaths rose >10% in eleven countries, the other countries average rose 20% the USA 43% over the period. Female neurological deaths rose >10% in ten counties, averaging 14%, the USA up 68%. USA male and female neurological deaths increased significantly more than twelve and seventeen countries, respectively. USA over‐75s population increased by 49%, other countries 56%. Other countries TND up 187% the USA rose fourfold. Male and female cancer and CDD fell in every country averaging 26% and 21%, respectively, and 64% and 67% for CDD. Male neurological rates rose significantly more than Cancer and CCD in every country; Female neurological deaths rose significantly more than cancer in 17 countries and every country for CDD. There was no significant correlation between increases in neurological deaths and decreases in control mortalities.

Conclusions

There are substantial increases in neurological deaths in most countries, significantly so in America. Rises in the 55‐74 and over‐75's rates are not primarily due to demographic changes and are a matter of concern warranting further investigation.

Blood Metabolic Signatures of Body Mass Index: A Targeted Metabolomics Study in the EPIC Cohort

Metabolomics is now widely used to characterize metabolic phenotypes associated with lifestyle risk factors such as obesity. The objective of the present study was to explore the associations of body mass index (BMI) with 145 metabolites measured in blood samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolites were measured in blood from 392 men from the Oxford (UK) cohort (EPIC-Oxford) and in 327 control subjects who were part of a nested case-control study on hepatobiliary carcinomas (EPIC-Hepatobiliary). Measured metabolites included amino acids, acylcarnitines, hexoses, biogenic amines, phosphatidylcholines, and sphingomyelins. Linear regression models controlled for potential confounders and multiple testing were run to evaluate the associations of metabolite concentrations with BMI. 40 and 45 individual metabolites showed significant differences according to BMI variations, in the EPIC-Oxford and EPIC-Hepatobiliary subcohorts, respectively. Twenty two individual metabolites (kynurenine, one sphingomyelin, glutamate and 19 phosphatidylcholines) were associated with BMI in both subcohorts. The present findings provide additional knowledge on blood metabolic signatures of BMI in European adults, which may help identify mechanisms mediating the relationship of BMI with obesity-related diseases.

Immunization with HIV-1 envelope T20-encoding DNA vaccines elicits cross-clade neutralizing antibody responses

Background: Genetic immunization is expected to induce the expression of antigens in a native form. The encoded peptide epitopes are presented on endogenous MHC molecules, mimicking antigen presentation during a viral infection. We have explored the potential of enfuvirtide (T20), a short HIV peptide with antiviral properties, to enhance immune response to HIV antigens. To generate an expression vector, the T20 sequence was cloned into a conventional plasmid, the novel minicircle construct, and a replicon plasmid. In addition, 3 conventional plasmids that express the envelope of HIV-1 subtypes A, B and C and contain T20 in their gp41 sequences were also tested. Results: All combinations induced HIV-specific antibodies and cellular responses. The addition of T20 as a peptide and as an expression cassette in the 3 DNA vectors enhanced antibody responses. The highest anti-HIV-1 Env titers were obtained by the replicon T20 construct. This demonstrates that besides its known antiviral activity, T20 promotes immune responses. We also confirm that the combination of slightly divergent antigens improves immune responses. Conclusions: The antiretroviral T20 HIV-1 sequence can be used as an immunogen to elicit binding and neutralizing antibodies against HIV-1. These, or similarly modified gp41 genes/peptides, can be used as priming or boosting components for induction of broadly neutralizing anti-HIV antibodies. Future comparative studies will reveal the optimal mode of T20 administration.

Metabolically Healthy Obesity and Ischemic Heart Disease: A 10-Year Follow-Up of the Inter99 Study

CONTEXT

Recent studies have suggested that a subgroup of obese individuals is not at increased risk of obesity-related complications. This subgroup has been referred to as metabolically healthy obese.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether obesity is a risk factor for development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) irrespective of metabolic health.

DESIGN

In all, 6238 men and women from the Danish prospective Inter99 study were followed during 10.6 (standard deviation = 1.7) years.

SETTING

General community.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were classified according to body mass index and four metabolic risk factors (low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated blood pressure, triglycerides, and fasting plasma glucose). Metabolically healthy individuals were defined as having no metabolic risk factors, and metabolically unhealthy individuals were defined as having a minimum of one.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

IHD.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 323 participants developed IHD. Metabolically healthy obese men had increased risk of IHD compared with metabolically healthy normal-weight men [hazard ratio (HR), 3.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1 to 8.2)]. The corresponding results for women were less pronounced (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 4.8). Being metabolically healthy but overweight was not associated with higher risk of IHD in men (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.5 to 2.4), and in women the risk was only slightly increased and insignificant (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.8 to 3.0). A substantial proportion of metabolically healthy individuals became metabolically unhealthy after 5 years of follow-up. When these changes in exposure status were taken into account, slightly higher risk estimates were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Being obese is associated with higher incidence of IHD irrespective of metabolic status, and we question the feasibility of denoting a subgroup of obese individuals as metabolically healthy.

Correlates of circulating ovarian cancer early detection markers and their contribution to discrimination of early detection models: results from the EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer early detection markers CA125, CA15.3, HE4, and CA72.4 vary between healthy women, limiting their utility for screening.

METHODS

We evaluated cross-sectional relationships between lifestyle and reproductive factors and these markers among controls (n = 1910) from a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Improvements in discrimination of prediction models adjusting for correlates of the markers were evaluated among postmenopausal women in the nested case-control study (n = 590 cases). Generalized linear models were used to calculate geometric means of CA125, CA15.3, and HE4. CA72.4 above vs. below limit of detection was evaluated using logistic regression. Early detection prediction was modeled using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

CA125 concentrations were lower, and CA15.3 higher, in post- vs. premenopausal women (p ≤ 0.02). Among postmenopausal women, CA125 was higher among women with higher parity and older age at menopause (ptrend ≤ 0.02), but lower among women reporting oophorectomy, hysterectomy, ever use of estrogen-only hormone therapy, or current smoking (p < 0.01). CA15.3 concentrations were higher among heavier women and in former smokers (p ≤ 0.03). HE4 was higher with older age at blood collection and in current smokers, and inversely associated with OC use duration, parity, and older age at menopause (≤ 0.02). No associations were observed with CA72.4. Adjusting for correlates of the markers in prediction models did not improve the discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides insights into sources of variation in ovarian cancer early detection markers in healthy women and informs about the utility of individualizing marker cutpoints based on epidemiologic factors.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers: results from the EPIC cohort

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination.

Prediagnostic circulating concentrations of plasma insulin-like growth factor-I and risk of lymphoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I has cancer promoting activities. However, the hypothesis that circulating IGF-I concentration is related to risk of lymphoma overall or its subtypes has not been examined prospectively. IGF-I concentration was measured in pre-diagnostic plasma samples from a nested case-control study of 1,072 cases of lymphoid malignancies and 1,072 individually matched controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for lymphoma were calculated using conditional logistic regression. IGF-I concentration was not associated with overall lymphoma risk (multivariable-adjusted OR for highest versus lowest third = 0.77 [95% CI = 0.57-1.03], ptrend  = 0.06). There was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in this association with IGF-I by sex, age at blood collection, time between blood collection and diagnosis, age at diagnosis, or body mass index (pheterogeneity for all  ≥ 0.05). There were no associations between IGF-I concentration and risk for specific BCL subtypes, T-cell lymphoma or Hodgkin lymphoma, although number of cases were small. In this European population, IGF-I concentration was not associated with risk of overall lymphoma. This study provides the first prospective evidence on circulating IGF-I concentrations and risk of lymphoma. Further prospective data are required to examine associations of IGF-I concentrations with lymphoma subtypes.

Subjects with osteoporosis to remain at high risk for fracture despite benefit of prior bisphosphonate treatment-a Danish case-control study

The benefits of pharmaceutical treatment for osteoporosis may be limited for a number of patients, as they continue to experience fractures. Alternative treatments may be considered for subjects whom remain at high risk for future fractures.

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies have investigated the effects of good adherence to anti-osteoporosis medication. However, very few studies have described why some patients experience fractures and loss of BMD despite adherence to treatment. The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of patients at high risk for fracture despite being compliant to bisphosphonate treatment and examine which factors influence why some osteoporotic patients remain at a high risk for fracture despite being compliant to bisphosphonate treatment.

METHODS

This case-control study is based on Danish national health registry data. The subjects had to have either one BMD test or a fracture prior to inclusion. "High-risk" subjects (cases) were defined as BMD t-score < =-2.5 SD, any drop in BMD from baseline or a fracture 24-36 months following inclusion.

RESULTS

A total of 2406 subjects (66.3 % women; 33.7 % men) fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and of these, 352 (14.6 %) were identified as high risk subjects. A multiple logistical regression analysis showed that high risk subjects were more likely to have lower plasma calcium and/or vitamin D levels (OR: 2.9) and were more frequently diagnosed with hyperparathyroidism (OR: 2.6).

CONCLUSION

Based on Danish national health registry data, 14.6 % patients were identified as patients remaining at high risk for fracture despite being compliant to bisphosphonate treatment. Lower plasma calcium and/or vitamin D level is the greatest predictor of high risk for fracture despite persistent bisphosphonate treatment. Secondary causes of osteoporosis should be considered and alternative treatments may be advised for subjects whom remain at high risk.

One-year efficacy and safety of saxagliptin add-on in patients receiving dapagliflozin and metformin

AIMS

Greater reductions in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) with saxagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor, versus placebo add-on in patients with type 2 diabetes who had inadequate glycaemic control with dapagliflozin 10 mg/d plus metformin were demonstrated after 24 weeks of treatment. Results over 52 weeks of treatment were assessed in this analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients (mean baseline HbA1c 7.9%) receiving open-label dapagliflozin 10 mg/d plus metformin were randomized to double-blind saxagliptin 5 mg/d or placebo add-on.

RESULTS

The adjusted mean change from baseline to week 52 in HbA1c was greater with saxagliptin than with placebo add-on -0.38% vs 0.05%; difference -0.42% (95% confidence interval -0.64, -0.20)]. More patients achieved the HbA1c target of <7% with saxagliptin than with placebo add-on (29% vs 13%), and fewer patients were rescued or discontinued the study for lack of glycaemic control with saxagliptin than with placebo add-on (19% vs 28%). Reductions from baseline in body weight (≤1.5 kg) occurred in both groups. Similar proportions of patients reported ≥1 adverse event with saxagliptin (58.2%) and placebo add-on (58.0%); no new safety signals were detected. Hypoglycaemia was infrequent in both treatment groups (≤2.5%), with no major episodes. The rate of urinary tract infections was similar in the saxagliptin and placebo add-on groups (7.8% vs 7.4%). The incidence of genital infections was 3.3% with saxagliptin versus 6.2% with placebo add-on.

CONCLUSIONS

Triple therapy with saxagliptin add-on to dapagliflozin plus metformin for 52 weeks resulted in sustained improvements in glycaemic control without an increase in body weight or increased risk of hypoglycaemia.

Efficacy and safety of triple therapy with dapagliflozin add-on to saxagliptin plus metformin over 52 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes

We previously reported that dapagliflozin versus placebo as add-on to saxagliptin plus metformin resulted in greater reductions in glycated haemoglobin (A1C), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and body weight (BW) after 24 weeks of treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Here we report results after 52 weeks of treatment. Patients stabilized on open-label metformin and saxagliptin 5 mg/day for 8-16 weeks were randomized to placebo or dapagliflozin 10 mg/day plus open-label saxagliptin plus metformin for 52 weeks. Changes from baseline to week 52 were greater with dapagliflozin versus placebo in A1C (-0.74% vs. 0.07%), FPG (-27 vs. 10 mg/dL) and BW (-2.1 vs. -0.4 kg). More patients achieved A1C <7% with dapagliflozin (29.4%) versus placebo (12.6%). Adverse events were similar with dapagliflozin (66%) and placebo (71%), and hypoglycaemia was rare (≤2%). Genital infections occurred more often with dapagliflozin (6%) than with placebo (1%); frequency of urinary tract infections was similar between the two groups (9% vs. 10%). Triple therapy with dapagliflozin add-on to saxagliptin plus metformin is a durable, effective and well-tolerated intervention for the treatment of T2D.

The epidemiology of fractures in Denmark in 2011

In the present study, we used national health care databases to estimate fracture incidence rates (IRs) and compared these IRs based on imputed data. We showed that imputation could lead to both over- and underestimation of IRs, and future research should therefore focus on how to improve those imputations.

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis is a major public health burden through associated (osteoporotic) fractures. In Denmark, the incidence rates (IRs) of hip fracture are widely available. However, there is limited data about other fracture sites. A recent report could only provide imputed IRs, although nationwide data is readily available in electronic healthcare databases. Therefore, our aim was to estimate fracture site-specific IRs for Denmark in 2011 and to compare those to the previously reported imputed data.

METHODS

Data from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register was used to estimate age- and gender-specific IRs for any fracture as well as for different fracture sites in the Danish population aged 20 years and older in 2011. Hip fracture IRs were stratified to sub-sites, and IRs were determined for all hip fractures which were confirmed by surgery.

RESULTS

The total number of incident fractures in 2011 was 80,760 (IR 191, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 190-192 (per 10,000 person-years)), of which 35,398 (43.8 %, IR 171, 95 % CI 169-173) occurred in men and 45,362 (56.2 %, IR 211, 95 % CI 209-213) in women. The majority of the fractures occurred in the population aged 50 years and older (n = 50,470, IR 249, 95 % CI 247-251). The numbers of any hip fracture were lower than the previously imputed estimates, whereas the number of forearm fractures was higher.

CONCLUSION

We showed age- and gender-specific fracture rates for any fracture as well as for different fracture sites. The IRs of most fracture sites increased with age. Estimating the number of fractures for Denmark based on imputation of data from other countries led to both over- and underestimation. Future research should therefore focus on how to improve those imputations as not all countries have nationwide registry data.

Sun Exposure Guidelines and Serum Vitamin D Status in Denmark: The StatusD Study

Little is known on how vitamin D status is affected by adherence to UVB-limiting sun exposure guidelines. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between adherence to the Danish sun exposure guidelines and vitamin D status. In total, 3194 Danes (2625 adults, 569 children) were recruited among the general population, and more than 92% had blood samples taken both autumn and spring. Using linear regression, we associated serum vitamin D concentrations to questionnaire responses on: seeking shade, wearing a sunhat, wearing protective clothing or using sunscreen. The odds ratio (OR) of either low (<25 or 50 nmol/L) or adequate/high (≥50 nmol/L) vitamin D status was examined using logistic regression. For adults, those who always sought shade or wore protective clothing compared to those who did not had lower levels of vitamin D (autumn concentrations for shade: 7.2 nmol/L lower (−11.0–−3.6 nmol/L); for protective clothing: 9.9 nmol/L lower (−13.6–−6.2 nmol/L). Adherence to all four guidelines was also associated with lower vitamin D concentrations (autumn: 9.7 nmol/L lower (−14.3–−5.1 nmol/L). Use of sunscreen was associated with adequate vitamin D status, as those who always sought shade compared to those who did not had an OR (95% CI) of 1.68 (1.25–2.35) of having ≥50 nmol/L during both spring and autumn. No associations were found with wearing a sunhat, and there were no clear associations for children. In conclusion, adherence to the sun exposure guidelines on shade and protective clothing was associated with lower vitamin D status among Danish adults, but not children.

A Retrospective Review of Imaging and Operative Modalities Performed in Patients with Primary Hyperparathyroidism at a Mid-Volume Surgical Centre in Southeast Asia

INTRODUCTION

A paradigm shift appears to have occurred worldwide in surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism with the advent of sensitive preoperative imaging techniques. Preoperative imaging for parathyroid adenoma localisation was not found to be useful in a study conducted in Singapore in the 1990s. This study aimed to explore what the change has been in preoperative localisation tools compared to the previous study and if the ability of these tools to correctly localise pathologic parathyroid glands has improved.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of patients who had surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism at our institution during the period 2005 to 2014 was carried out. Individuals with positive, as opposed to those with negative preoperative imaging, were compared with regard to whether they underwent limited focal or bilateral neck exploration. Length of hospital stay (LOHS) was also compared between patients who underwent limited versus bilateral exploration.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight patients who had preoperative imaging and surgery were evaluated. True positive rates of sestamibi, ultrasound and 4-dimensional (4D) computed tomography (CT) scans were 63.8%, 72.4% and 90%, respectively. Eighty percent of patients who had positive localisation had limited exploration. LOHS was 2.8 days (1.6, 4.8) and 4.3 days (2.1, 9.0) for limited and bilateral exploration respectively, P = 0.011.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the marked change in the surgical landscape for primary hyperparathyroidism in the last 2 decades in Singapore. Improved preoperative localisation has resulted in a swing from predominantly bilateral, to limited exploration in almost all cases of primary hyperparathyroidism due to solitary adenoma. LOHS was significantly shorter in patients who had limited as compared to those who had bilateral exploration.