Time Trends in Causes of Death in People with HIV: Insights from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Advancements in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care have led to a decline in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths among people with HIV (PWH) in Switzerland. However, data on the ongoing changes in causes of death among PWH over the past 15 years is scarce.

METHODS

We investigated all reported deaths in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2005-2022. Causes of death were categorized using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV protocol. The statistical analysis included demographic stratification to identify time trends and logistic regression models to determine associated factors for the underlying cause of death.

RESULTS

In total, 1630 deaths were reported, with 23.7% of individuals assigned female at birth. Out of these deaths, 147 (9.0%) were HIV/AIDS-related, 373 (22.9%) due to non-AIDS, non-hepatic (NANH) cancers, 166 (10.2%) liver-related, and 158 (9.7%) cardiovascular-related. The median age at death increased from 45.0 [40.0,53.0] years in 2005-2007 to 61.0 [56.0,69.5] years in 2020-2022. HIV/AIDS and liver-related causes of death decreased, whereas deaths from NANH cancers increased, and cardiovascular-related deaths remained relatively stable.

CONCLUSION

The proportionally decreasing HIV/AIDS and liver-related deaths showcase the effectiveness of ART, comprehensive HIV patient care, and interventions targeting hepatitis C virus co-infection. Future research should focus on managing cancer and cardiovascular-related conditions as the new leading causes of death among PWH. Comprehensive healthcare strategies focusing on non-AIDS-related comorbidities, cancer management, and sustaining liver and cardiovascular health are needed to bridge the ongoing health disparities between PWH and the general population.

Quantifying and Predicting Ongoing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Transmission Dynamics in Switzerland Using a Distance-Based Clustering Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite effective prevention approaches, ongoing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) transmission remains a public health concern indicating a need for identifying its drivers.

METHODS

We combined a network-based clustering method using evolutionary distances between viral sequences with statistical learning approaches to investigate the dynamics of HIV transmission in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and to predict the drivers of ongoing transmission.

RESULTS

We found that only a minority of clusters and patients acquired links to new infections between 2007 and 2020. While the growth of clusters and the probability of individual patients acquiring new links in the transmission network was associated with epidemiological, behavioral, and virological predictors, the strength of these associations decreased substantially when adjusting for network characteristics. Thus, these network characteristics can capture major heterogeneities beyond classical epidemiological parameters. When modeling the probability of a newly diagnosed patient being linked with future infections, we found that the best predictive performance (median area under the curve receiver operating characteristic AUCROC = 0.77) was achieved by models including characteristics of the network as predictors and that models excluding them performed substantially worse (median AUCROC = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the utility of molecular epidemiology-based network approaches for analyzing and predicting ongoing HIV transmission dynamics. This approach may serve for real-time prospective assessment of HIV transmission.

Triggers of Change in Sexual Behavior Among People With HIV: The Swiss U U Statement and COVID-19 Compared

We assessed changes in sexual behavior among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over 20 years. Condom use with stable partners steadily declined from over 90 to 29 since the Swiss U U statement, with similar trajectories between men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals. Occasional partnership remained higher among MSM compared to heterosexuals even during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing.

Risk Factors and Incidence of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are common among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH), but there are limited data about risk factors and incidence of STIs in large, representative cohort studies.

Methods

We assessed incidence and risk factors of STIs reported by treating physicians within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Sexually transmitted infections and demographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics were prospectively collected at 6-month follow-up visits between October 2017 and November 2019. We used multilevel Poisson regression to assess incidence rate ratios of different STIs.

Results

Among 10 140 study participants, a total of 1634 STIs in 1029 SHCS participants were reported over 17 766 person-years of follow up (PYFUP). The overall incidence of any reported STI was 91.9 per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.8 -98.5). Among the 1634 STI episodes, there were 573 (35.1%) incident cases of syphilis, 497 gonorrhea (30.4%), and 418 chlamydia (25.6%). Men who have sex with men (MSM) younger than 50 years represented 21% of the study population, but accounted for 61% of reported STIs. Male sex (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 2.03; 95% CI, 1.36-3.02), MSM (aIRR, 3.62; 95% CI, 2.88-4.55), age group 18-34 years (aIRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.51-2.10), history of sexual relationships with occasional partners (aIRR, 6.87; 95% CI, 5.40-8.73), and reporting injecting drug use (aIRR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.91-3.23) were associated with a higher risk of incident STIs.

Conclusions

Sexually transmitted infections were frequent among PWH and varied considerably between age and risk groups. Screening programs and recommendations for STI testing need to be adapted according to risk factors and demographic characteristics.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

Changes in Renal Function After Switching From TDF to TAF in HIV-Infected Individuals: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Replacing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) improves renal tubular markers in HIV-infected individuals but the impact on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) remains unclear.

Methods

In all participants from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who switched from TDF to TAF-containing antiretroviral regimen or continued TDF, we estimated changes in eGFR and urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) after 18 months using mixed-effect models.

Results

Of 3520 participants (26.6% women, median age 50 years), 2404 (68.5%) switched to TAF. Overall, 1664 (47.3%) had an eGFR <90 mL/min and 1087 (30.9%) an UPCR ≥15 mg/mmol. In patients with baseline eGFR ≥90 mL/min, eGFR decreased with the use of TDF and TAF (−1.7 mL/min). Switching to TAF was associated with increases in eGFR of 1.5 mL/min (95% confidence interval [CI], .5–2.5) if the baseline eGFR was 60–89 mL/min, and 4.1 mL/min (95% CI, 1.6–6.6) if <60 mL/min. In contrast, eGFR decreased by 5.8 mL/min (95% CI, 2.3–9.3) with continued use of TDF in individuals with baseline eGFR <60 mL/min. UPCR decreased after replacing TDF by TAF, independent of baseline eGFR.

Conclusions

Switching from TDF to TAF improves eGFR and proteinuria in patients with renal dysfunction.

[Robot-assisted kidney transplantation]

BACKGROUND

Robot-assisted surgery has become widely adopted in urology due to advantages in comparison with laparoscopic or open approaches. Robot-assisted living kidney transplantation is one of the most challenging procedures in urology regarding technical, but also psychological and ethical aspects, and is currently routinely performed in two German departments.

OBJECTIVES

The goal was to analyze and compare current evidence and experiences of robot-assisted living kidney transplantation in Europe and in Germany.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search was performed to identify relevant publications. They were compared with latest results from two German academic centers (Halle and Homburg/Saar).

RESULTS

In 2015, robot-assisted living kidney transplantation was performed for the first time in Europe. Since then, 8 academic centers have established this procedure. Until today, more than 180 robot-assisted kidney transplantations have been performed. Short- and mid-term results have proven to be excellent with low complication rates. Apart from 3 transplant losses because of arterial thrombosis and 5 surgical re-explorations due to hematoma, no other noteworthy complications occurred. There was only 1 lymphocele. The median blood loss was 150 ml and kidney function after 1 year was unchanged in comparison with postoperative day 30.

CONCLUSIONS

Robot-assisted living kidney transplantation is not inferior to the open approach. Even superiority is not unlikely because problematic situations such as obese patients or complex vascular anatomy can be handled safely. In particular, the development of lymphocele and wound healing disorders appear to be significantly decreased compared to conventional surgery.

Rapid decline of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies following early treatment of incident HCV infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men

OBJECTIVES

Following clearance of incident hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, HCV antibody levels may decline, resulting in seroreversion. It is unclear to what extent HCV antibody level trajectories differ between patients with treatment-induced sustained virological response (SVR), those with spontaneous clearance and those with untreated replicating HCV infection. We investigated HCV antibody level dynamics in HIV-infected MSM with different clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We investigated anti-HCV antibody level dynamics following an incident HCV infection in 67 HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) with different clinical outcomes: SVR (n = 33), spontaneous clearance (n = 12), and untreated replicating infection (n = 22). Antibody levels were measured at the time of HCV diagnosis, and at yearly intervals for 3 years thereafter.

RESULTS

At baseline, median HCV antibody levels were similar in the three groups: 13.4, 13.8 and 13.5 sample to cut-off (S/CO) for SVR, spontaneous clearance and untreated infection, respectively. Over 3 years of follow-up, SVR was associated with a more pronounced decrease in anti-HCV levels compared with spontaneous clearance and untreated infection [median decline 71% [interquartile range (IQR: 43-87%), 38% (IQR: 29-60%) and 12% (IQR: 9-22%), respectively; P < 0.001]. Seroreversions occurred in five of 33 (15%) patients with SVR and in one of 12 (8%) with spontaneous clearance. A shorter delay between time of infection and treatment start correlated with higher rates of decline in antibody levels. Seven patients experienced a reinfection.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment-induced HCV clearance was associated with a more pronounced decline in anti-HCV antibody levels and with higher rates of seroreversion compared with spontaneous clearance or untreated replicating HCV infection among HIV-infected MSM with incident HCV infections. Rapid clearance of HCV RNA following early HCV treatment might impair the development of persistent antibody titres.

On the potential of a short-term intensive intervention to interrupt HCV transmission in HIV-positive men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study

Increasing access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and decelerating the rise in high-risk behaviour over the next decade could curb the HCV epidemic among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated if similar outcomes would be achieved by short-term intensive interventions like the Swiss-HCVree-trial. We used a HCV transmission model emulating two 12-months intensive interventions combining risk counselling with (i) universal DAA treatment (pangenotypic intervention) and (ii) DAA treatment for HCV genotypes 1 and 4 (replicating the Swiss-HCVree-trial). To capture potential changes outside intensive interventions, we varied time from HCV infection to treatment in clinical routine and overall high-risk behaviour among HIV-positive MSM. Simulated prevalence dropped from 5.5% in 2016 to ≤2.0% over the intervention period (June/2016-May/2017) with the pangenotypic intervention, and to ≤3.6% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. Assuming time to treatment in clinical routine reflected reimbursement restrictions (METAVIR ≥F2, 16.9 years) and stable high-risk behaviour in the overall MSM population, prevalence in 2025 reached 13.1% without intensive intervention, 11.1% with the pangenotypic intervention and 11.8% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. If time to treatment in clinical routine was 2 years, prevalence in 2025 declined to 4.8% without intensive intervention, to 2.8% with the pangenotypic intervention, and to 3.5% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. In this scenario, the pangenotypic intervention and the Swiss-HCVree-trial reduced cumulative (2016-2025) treatment episodes by 36% and 24%, respectively. Therefore, intensive interventions could reduce future HCV treatment costs and boost the benefits of long-term efforts to prevent high-risk behaviour and to reduce treatment delay. But if after intensive interventions treatment is deferred until F2, short-term benefits of intensive interventions would dissipate in the long term.

[Is there still a role for active surveillance in prostate cancer?]

Long-term data demonstrate a higher oncological risk associated with active surveillance (AS) than initially anticipated. In particular, patients with more than two tumor-involved biopsy cores and/or Gleason-7a foci must be regarded as having an increased risk of developing an incurable stage of disease after an initial attempt of AS. For patients with Gleason-7a foci, the 15-year risk of suffering from an incurable tumor stage is reported as high as 60%. Furthermore, life expectancy must be regarded as one of the major risk factors to finally develop symptomatic incurable disease. A discussion has therefore started as to whether a high life expectancy should be regarded as an exclusion criterion against AS. An estimated life expectancy exceeding 15 or 20 years has been proposed for patients suffering from Gleason 7a or 6 foci at initial biopsy, respectively. Furthermore, it must be expected that a number of molecular risk factors will gain importance in the near future for the decision-making process for or against AS.

Emergence of Acquired HIV-1 Drug Resistance Almost Stopped in Switzerland: A 15-Year Prospective Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance is a major barrier to successful antiretroviral treatment (ART). Therefore, it is important to monitor time trends at a population level.

METHODS

We included 11 084 ART-experienced patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between 1999 and 2013. The SHCS is highly representative and includes 72% of patients receiving ART in Switzerland. Drug resistance was defined as the presence of ≥1 major mutation in a genotypic resistance test. To estimate the prevalence of drug resistance, data for patients with no resistance test was imputed based on the patient's risk of harboring drug-resistant viruses.

RESULTS

The emergence of new drug resistance mutations declined dramatically from 401 to 23 patients between 1999 and 2013. The upper estimated prevalence limit of drug resistance among ART-experienced patients decreased from 57.0% in 1999 to 37.1% in 2013. The prevalence of 3-class resistance decreased from 9.0% to 4.4% and was always <0.4% for patients who initiated ART after 2006. Most patients actively participating in the SHCS in 2013 with drug-resistant viruses initiated ART before 1999 (59.8%). Nevertheless, in 2013, 94.5% of patients who initiated ART before 1999 had good remaining treatment options based on Stanford algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance among ART-experienced patients in Switzerland is a well-controlled relic from the era before combination ART. Emergence of drug resistance can be virtually stopped with new potent therapies and close monitoring.