Risk factors for colonization with extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales among hospitalized patients in Guatemala: An Antibiotic Resistance in Communities and Hospitals (ARCH) study

Objectives

The spread of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCrE) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) has resulted in increased morbidity, mortality, and health care costs worldwide. To identify the factors associated with ESCrE and CRE colonization within hospitals, we enrolled hospitalized patients at a regional hospital located in Guatemala.

Methods

Stool samples were collected from randomly selected patients using a cross-sectional study design (March-September, 2021), and samples were tested for the presence of ESCrE and CRE. Hospital-based and household variables were examined for associations with ESCrE and CRE colonization using lasso regression models, clustered by ward (n = 21).

Results

A total of 641 patients were enrolled, of whom complete data sets were available for 593. Colonization with ESCrE (72.3%, n = 429/593) was negatively associated with carbapenem administration (odds ratio [OR] 0.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11-0.42) and positively associated with ceftriaxone administration (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.02-2.53), as was reported hospital admission within 30 days of the current hospitalization (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.19-6.80). Colonization with CRE (34.6%, n = 205 of 593) was associated with carbapenem administration (OR 2.62, 95% CI 1.39-4.97), reported previous hospital admission within 30 days of current hospitalization (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.17-5.72), hospitalization in wards with more patients (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08), hospitalization for ≥4 days (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.72-5.46), and intubation (OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.13-5.59). No household-based variables were associated with ESCrE or CRE colonization in hospitalized patients.

Conclusion

The hospital-based risk factors identified in this study are similar to what has been reported for risk of health care-associated infections, consistent with colonization being driven by hospital settings rather than community factors. This also suggests that colonization with ESCrE and CRE could be a useful metric to evaluate the efficacy of infection and prevention control programs in clinics and hospitals.

Risk Factors for Colonization With Extended-Spectrum Cephalosporin-Resistant and Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacterales Among Hospitalized Patients in Kenya: An Antibiotic Resistance in Communities and Hospitals (ARCH) Study

BACKGROUND

The spread of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCrE) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) represents a significant global public health threat. We identified putative risk factors for ESCrE and CRE colonization among patients in 1 urban and 3 rural hospitals in Kenya.

METHODS

During a January 2019 and March 2020 cross-sectional study, stool samples were collected from randomized inpatients and tested for ESCrE and CRE. The Vitek2 instrument was used for isolate confirmation and antibiotic susceptibility testing, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression models were used to identify colonization risk factors while varying antibiotic use measures.

RESULTS

Most (76%) of the 840 enrolled participants received ≥1 antibiotic in the 14 days preceding their enrollment, primarily ceftriaxone (46%), metronidazole (28%), or benzylpenicillin-gentamycin (23%). For LASSO models that included ceftriaxone administration, ESCrE colonization odds were higher among patients hospitalized for ≥3 days (odds ratio, 2.32 [95% confidence interval, 1.6-3.37]; P < .001), intubated patients (1.73 [1.03-2.91]; P = .009), and persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (1.70 [1.03-2.8]; P = .029). CRE colonization odds were higher among patients receiving ceftriaxone (odds ratio, 2.23 [95% confidence interval, 1.14-4.38]; P = .025) and for every additional day of antibiotic use (1.08 [1.03-1.13]; P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

While CRE colonization was strongly associated with ceftriaxone use and duration of antibiotic use, the odds of ESCrE colonization increased with exposure to the hospital setting and invasive medical devices, which may reflect nosocomial transmission. These data suggest several areas where hospitals can intervene to prevent colonization among hospitalized patients, both through robust infection prevention and control practices and antibiotic stewardship programs.

Risk Factors for Colonization With Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria in Urban and Rural Communities in Kenya: An Antimicrobial Resistance in Communities and Hospitals (ARCH) Study

BACKGROUND

Colonization with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria increases the risk of drug-resistant infections. We identified risk factors potentially associated with human colonization with extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCrE) in low-income urban and rural communities in Kenya.

METHODS

Fecal specimens, demographic and socioeconomic data were collected cross-sectionally from clustered random samples of respondents in urban (Kibera, Nairobi County) and rural (Asembo, Siaya County) communities between January 2019 and March 2020. Presumptive ESCrE isolates were confirmed and tested for antibiotic susceptibility using the VITEK2 instrument. We used a path analytic model to identify potential risk factors for colonization with ESCrE. Only 1 participant was included per household to minimize household cluster effects.

RESULTS

Stool samples from 1148 adults (aged ≥18 years) and 268 children (aged <5 years) were analyzed. The likelihood of colonization increased by 12% with increasing visits to hospitals and clinics. Furthermore, individuals who kept poultry were 57% more likely to be colonized with ESCrE than those who did not. Respondents' sex, age, use of improved toilet facilities, and residence in a rural or urban community were associated with healthcare contact patterns and/or poultry keeping and may indirectly affect ESCrE colonization. Prior antibiotic use was not significantly associated with ESCrE colonization in our analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors associated with ESCrE colonization in communities include healthcare- and community-related factors, indicating that efforts to control antimicrobial resistance in community settings must include community- and hospital-level interventions.

Reproductive inequality in humans and other mammals

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited degree of polygyny in the human societies that practice it, and to the importance of unequally held rival resources to women's fitness. The muted reproductive inequality observed in humans appears to be linked to several unusual characteristics of our species-including high levels of cooperation among males, high dependence on unequally held rival resources, complementarities between maternal and paternal investment, as well as social and legal institutions that enforce monogamous norms.

OUP accepted manuscript

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

"We are doctors": Drivers of animal health practices among Maasai pastoralists and implications for antimicrobial use and antimicrobial resistance

Animal health service providers can play an important role in limiting drug resistance by promoting responsible and prudent use of veterinary drugs. Recognizing this potential, international agencies and governments have called for these providers to receive drug stewardship training, particularly providers in low- and middle-income countries where top-down regulations (e.g., national regulation of veterinary prescriptions) are largely unfeasible. The success of these stewardship trainings to promote responsible and prudent use will depend on many factors, including understanding how livestock-keeping communities currently interact with animal health service providers. Here, we use a mixed methods approach to identify and understand animal health seeking practices among Maasai pastoralists in Tanzania. Combining qualitative interviews (N = 31) and structured surveys (N = 195), we show the majority of Maasai respondents (≈80 %) do not frequently consult animal health service providers with most relying on advice from family and friends. Logistic regression models of health seeking practices find that increasing age, education, observance of treatment failure, and herd disease burdens are associated with greater odds of seeking out health services. Quantitative results were supported by data from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews that showed Maasai view animal health service providers as measures of last resort, whose input is largely sought after self-treatment with veterinary drugs fail. We argue patterns of animal health seeking among the Maasai are partially the consequence of their high confidence in their own abilities in livestock disease and treatment and generally low confidence in the skills of animal health service providers. We link this high sense of self-efficacy to the culturally engrained process by which Maasai develop mastery in animal health and how the roles and norms in Maasai culture surrounding animal health influence Maasai perceptions of animal health professionals. Our results highlight the need for more research to understand Maasai perceptions of animal health service providers as well as the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of these providers. Finally, our study emphasizes that the success of drug stewardship trainings will require efforts to first understand the cultural and historical contexts driving health seeking practices that impact perceptions of animal health service providers and animal health practices more generally.

Knowing Is Not Enough: A Mixed-Methods Study of Antimicrobial Resistance Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practises Among Maasai Pastoralists

Global, national, and local efforts to limit antimicrobial resistance (AMR) often stress the importance of raising awareness among users, sellers, and prescribers of antimicrobial drugs. This emphasis is founded upon two assumptions. First, awareness is limited, particularly concerning the links between antimicrobial use (AMU) and AMR. Second, "filling the awareness gaps" will motivate practises that will limit AMR. The first assumption is supported by knowledge, attitudes, and practises (KAP) surveys but these same studies provide mixed support for the second, with several studies finding that knowledge and attitudes are not correlated with related practises. This disconnect may arise as these surveys typically do not collect data on the cultural or historical contexts that pattern AMU. To explore how these contexts impact KAP related to AMU and AMR, we use a mixed-methods approach to examine veterinary practises among Maasai pastoralists in Tanzania. We combine a quantitative KAP survey (N = 195 households) with extensive qualitative data from focus group discussions (N = 55 participants). Results document limited awareness of AMR but also find that knowledge and attitudes are not correlated with practise. Thematic analysis of qualitative data pointed to three reasons behind this disconnect, including (1) Maasai self-perceptions as veterinary experts, (2) the central role of livestock in Maasai culture, and (3) the use of ethnoveterinary knowledge in animal health treatment. We argue that mixed-method approaches will be critical to developing the targeted awareness campaigns needed to limit the emergence and transmission of AMR.

The Impacts of Animal Health Service Providers on Antimicrobial Use Attitudes and Practices: An Examination of Poultry Layer Farmers in Ghana and Kenya

International organizations and governments have argued that animal health service providers can play a vital role in limiting antimicrobial resistance by promoting the prudent use of antimicrobials. However, there is little research on the impact of these service providers on prudent use at the farm level, especially in low- and middle-income countries where enforcement of prudent-use regulations is limited. Here, we use a mixed-methods approach to assess how animal health-seeking practices on layer farms in Ghana (n = 110) and Kenya (n = 76) impact self-reported antimicrobial usage, engagement in prudent administration and withdrawal practices and perceptions of antimicrobial resistance. In general, our results show that the frequency of health-seeking across a range of service providers (veterinarians, agrovets, and feed distributors) does not significantly correlate with prudent or non-prudent use practices or the levels of antimicrobials used. Instead, we find that patterns of antimicrobial use are linked to how much farmers invest in biosecurity (e.g., footbaths) and the following vaccination protocols. Our results emphasize that more research is required to understand the interactions between animal health service providers and farmers regarding antimicrobial use and antimicrobial resistance. Addressing these gaps will be crucial to inform antimicrobial stewardship training, curriculums and, guidelines whose ultimate purpose is to limit the selection and transmission of antimicrobial resistance.

Antibiotic use and hygiene interact to influence the distribution of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in low-income communities in Guatemala

To examine the effects of poor sanitation and hygiene on the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, we surveyed households in two rural and two urban communities in Guatemala (N = 196 randomly selected households). One adult (≥ 18-years old) and, when available, one child (≤ 5 years-old) provided a stool sample. Up to 48 presumptive Escherichia coli isolates were collected from each stool sample (n = 21,256 total) and were subjected to breakpoint assays for ten antibiotics. Mixed-effects logistic models were used to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of harboring antibiotic-resistant bacteria. For nine out of ten antibiotics, the odds of detecting resistant bacteria decreased by ~ 32% (odds ratios, OR 0.53-0.8, P < 0.001) for every unit of improvement of a hygiene scale. Hygiene differences between households had a greater impact on prevalence compared to antibiotic use differences. The likelihood of detecting resistant isolates was lower for five antibiotics among households that boiled raw milk before consumption (OR 0.31-0.69), and higher for nine antibiotics in urban households (OR > 1.89-9.6). Poor hygiene conditions likely obscure effects of individual antibiotic use, presumably due to enhanced microbial transmission. Consequently, efforts to improve antibiotic stewardship should be coupled with improving hygiene conditions.

Towards a bottom-up understanding of antimicrobial use and resistance on the farm: A knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey across livestock systems in five African countries

The nutritional and economic potentials of livestock systems are compromised by the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. A major driver of resistance is the misuse and abuse of antimicrobial drugs. The likelihood of misuse may be elevated in low- and middle-income countries where limited professional veterinary services and inadequately controlled access to drugs are assumed to promote non-prudent practices (e.g., self-administration of drugs). The extent of these practices, as well as the knowledge and attitudes motivating them, are largely unknown within most agricultural communities in low- and middle-income countries. The main objective of this study was to document dimensions of knowledge, attitudes and practices related to antimicrobial use and antimicrobial resistance in livestock systems and identify the livelihood factors associated with these dimensions. A mixed-methods ethnographic approach was used to survey households keeping layers in Ghana (N = 110) and Kenya (N = 76), pastoralists keeping cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania (N = 195), and broiler farmers in Zambia (N = 198), and Zimbabwe (N = 298). Across countries, we find that it is individuals who live or work at the farm who draw upon their knowledge and experiences to make decisions regarding antimicrobial use and related practices. Input from animal health professionals is rare and antimicrobials are sourced at local, privately owned agrovet drug shops. We also find that knowledge, attitudes, and particularly practices significantly varied across countries, with poultry farmers holding more knowledge, desirable attitudes, and prudent practices compared to pastoralist households. Multivariate models showed that variation in knowledge, attitudes and practices is related to several factors, including gender, disease dynamics on the farm, and source of animal health information. Study results emphasize that interventions to limit antimicrobial resistance should be founded upon a bottom-up understanding of antimicrobial use at the farm-level given limited input from animal health professionals and under-resourced regulatory capacities within most low- and middle-income countries. Establishing this bottom-up understanding across cultures and production systems will inform the development and implementation of the behavioral change interventions to combat antimicrobial resistance globally.

Antimicrobial resistant enteric bacteria are widely distributed amongst people, animals and the environment in Tanzania

Antibiotic use and bacterial transmission are responsible for the emergence, spread and persistence of antimicrobial-resistant (AR) bacteria, but their relative contribution likely differs across varying socio-economic, cultural, and ecological contexts. To better understand this interaction in a multi-cultural and resource-limited context, we examine the distribution of antimicrobial-resistant enteric bacteria from three ethnic groups in Tanzania. Household-level data (n = 425) was collected and bacteria isolated from people, livestock, dogs, wildlife and water sources (n = 62,376 isolates). The relative prevalence of different resistance phenotypes is similar across all sources. Multi-locus tandem repeat analysis (n = 719) and whole-genome sequencing (n = 816) of Escherichia coli demonstrate no evidence for host-population subdivision. Multivariate models show no evidence that veterinary antibiotic use increased the odds of detecting AR bacteria, whereas there is a strong association with livelihood factors related to bacterial transmission, demonstrating that to be effective, interventions need to accommodate different cultural practices and resource limitations.

Spatial relationships between small-holder farms coupled with livestock management practices are correlated with the distribution of antibiotic resistant bacteria in northern Tanzania

We examined the spatial distribution of antibiotic-resistant coliform bacteria amongst livestock from three distinct cultural groups, where group-level differences in practices (e.g., antibiotic use) may influence the magnitude of antibiotic resistance, while livestock interactions (e.g., mixing herds, shared markets) between these locations may reduce heterogeneity in the distribution of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Data was collected as part of a larger study of antibiotic-resistance in northern Tanzania. Simple regression and generalized linear regression were used to assess livestock management and care practices in relation to the prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) coliform bacteria. Simple and multivariable logistic regression were then used to identify how different management practices affected the odds of households being found within MDR "hotspots." Households that had a higher median neighbourhood value within a 3000 m radius showed a significant positive correlation with livestock MDR prevalence (β = 4.33, 95% CI: 2.41-6.32). Households were more likely to be found within hotspots if they had taken measures to avoid disease (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.53, CI: 1.08-2.18), and if they reported traveling less than a day to reach the market (AOR 2.66, CI: 1.18-6.01). Hotspot membership was less likely when a greater number of livestock were kept at home (AOR 0.81, CI: 0.69-0.95), if livestock were vaccinated (AOR 0.32, CI: 0.21-0.51), or if distance to nearest village was greater (AOR 0.46, CI: 0.36-0.59). The probability of MDR increases when herds are mixed, consistent with evidence for passive transmission of resistant bacteria between animals. Reduced MDR with vaccination is consistent with many studies showing reduced antibiotic use with less disease burden. The neighbourhood effect has implications for design of intervention studies.

Identification of risk factors associated with carriage of resistant Escherichia coli in three culturally diverse ethnic groups in Tanzania: a biological and socioeconomic analysis

BACKGOUND

Improved antimicrobial stewardship, sanitation, and hygiene are WHO-inspired priorities for restriction of the spread of antimicrobial resistance. Prioritisation among these objectives is essential, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, but the factors contributing most to antimicrobial resistance are typically unknown and could vary substantially between and within countries. We aimed to identify the biological and socioeconomic risk factors associated with carriage of resistant Escherichia coli in three culturally diverse ethnic groups in northern Tanzania.

METHODS

We developed a survey containing more than 200 items and administered it in randomly selected households in 13 Chagga, Arusha, or Maasai villages chosen on the basis of ethnic composition and distance to urban centres. Human stool samples were collected from a subset of households, as were liquid milk samples and swabs of milk containers. Samples were processed and plated onto MacConkey agar plates, then presumptive E coli isolates were identified on the basis of colony morphology. Susceptibility of isolates was then tested against a panel of nine antimicrobials (ampicillin, ceftazidime, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, kanamycin, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, tetracycline, and trimethoprim) via a breakpoint assay. Susceptibility findings were matched with data across a wide range of household characteristics, including education, hygiene practices, wealth, livestock husbandry, and antibiotic use.

FINDINGS

Between March 23, 2012, and July 30, 2015, we interviewed 391 households (118 Arusha, 100 Chagga, and 173 Maasai). Human stool samples were collected at 226 (58%) households across the 13 villages. 181 milk samples and 191 milk-container swabs were collected from 117 households across seven villages. 11 470 putative E coli samples were isolated from stool samples. Antimicrobial use in people and livestock was not associated with prevalence of resistance at the household level. Instead, the factors with the greatest predictive value involved exposure to bacteria, and were intimately connected with fundamental cultural differences across study groups. These factors included how different subsistence types (pastoralists vs farmers) access water sources and consumption of unboiled milk, reflecting increased exposure to resistant bacteria in milk.

INTERPRETATION

When cultural and ecological conditions favour bacterial transmission, there is a high likelihood that people will harbour antimicrobial-resistant bacteria irrespective of antimicrobial use practices. Public health interventions to limit antimicrobial resistance need to be tailored to local practices that affect bacterial transmission.

FUNDING

US National Science Foundation; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK Medical Research Council; and the Allen School.

A two-month follow-up evaluation testing interventions to limit the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistant bacteria among Maasai of northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, efforts to control antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are aggravated by unregulated drug sales and use, and high connectivity between human, livestock, and wildlife populations. Our previous research indicates that Maasai agropastoralists-who have high exposure to livestock and livestock products and self-administer veterinary antibiotics-harbor antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli (E. coli). Here, we report the results of a public health intervention project among Maasai aimed at reducing selection and transmission of E. coli bacteria.

METHODS

Research was conducted in two Maasai communities in Northern Tanzania. Participants were provided with health knowledge and technological innovations to facilitate: 1) the prudent use of veterinary antibiotics (tape measures and dosage charts to calculate livestock weight for more accurate dosage), and, 2) the pasteurization of milk (thermometers), the latter of which was motivated by findings of high levels of resistant E. coli in Maasai milk. To determine knowledge retention and intervention adoption, we conducted a two-month follow-up evaluation in the largest of the two communities.

RESULTS

Retention of antimicrobial knowledge was positively associated with retention of bacterial knowledge and, among men, retention of bacterial knowledge was associated with greater wealth. Bacterial and AMR knowledge were not, however, associated with self-reported use of the innovations. Among women, self-reported use of the thermometers was associated with having more children and greater retention of knowledge about the health benefits of the innovations. Whereas 70% of women used their innovations correctly, men performed only 18% of the weight-estimation steps correctly. Men's correct use was associated with schooling, such that high illiteracy rates remain an important obstacle to the dissemination and diffusion of weight-estimation materials.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that dietary preferences for unboiled milk, concerns over child health, and a desire to improve the health of livestock are important cultural values that need to be incorporated in future AMR-prevention interventions that target Maasai populations. More generally, these findings inform future community-health interventions to limit AMR.

Antimicrobial Use and Veterinary Care among Agro-Pastoralists in Northern Tanzania

Frequent and unregulated use of antimicrobials (AM) in livestock requires public health attention as a likely selection pressure for resistant bacteria. Studies among small-holders, who own a large percentage of the world's livestock, are vital for understanding how practices involving AM use might influence resistance. We present a cultural-ecological mixed-methods analysis to explore sectors of veterinary care, loosely regulated AM use, and human exposure to AMs through meat and milk consumption across three rural to peri-urban Tanzanian ethnic groups (N = 415 households). Reported use of self-administered AMs varied by ethnic group (Maasai: 74%, Arusha: 21%, Chagga: 1%) as did consultation with professional veterinarians (Maasai: 36%, Arusha: 45%, Chagga: 96%) and observation of withdrawal of meat and milk from consumption during and following AM treatment (Maasai: 7%, Arusha: 72%, Chagga: 96%). The antibiotic oxytetracycline was by far the most common AM in this sample. Within ethnic groups, herd composition differences, particularly size of small-stock and cattle herds, were most strongly associated with differences in lay AM use. Among the Arusha, proxies for urbanization, including owning transportation and reliance on "zero-grazing" herds had the strongest positive associations with veterinarian consultation, while distance to urban centers was negatively associated. For Maasai, consultation was negatively associated with use of traditional healers or veterinary drug-shops. Observation of withdrawal was most strongly associated with owning technology among Maasai while Arusha observance displayed seasonal differences. This "One-Health" analysis suggests that livelihood and cultural niche factors, through their association with practices in smallholder populations, provide insight into the selection pressures that may contribute to the evolution and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance.

Medical pluralism and livestock health: ethnomedical and biomedical veterinary knowledge among East African agropastoralists

BACKGROUND

Human and animal health are deeply intertwined in livestock dependent areas. Livestock health contributes to food security and can influence human health through the transmission of zoonotic diseases. In low-income countries diagnosis and treatment of livestock diseases is often carried out by household members who draw upon both ethnoveterinary medicine (EVM) and contemporary veterinary biomedicine (VB). Expertise in these knowledge bases, along with their coexistence, informs treatment and thus ultimately impacts animal and human health. The aim of the current study was to determine how socio-cultural and ecological differences within and between two livestock-keeping populations, the Maasai of northern Tanzania and Koore of southwest Ethiopia, impact expertise in EVM and VB and coexistence of the two knowledge bases.

METHODS

An ethnoveterinary research project was conducted to examine dimensions of EVM and VB knowledge among the Maasai (N = 142 households) and the Koore (N = 100). Cultural consensus methods were used to quantify expertise and the level of agreement on EVM and VB knowledge. Ordinary least squares regression was used to model patterns of expertise and consensus across groups and to examine associations between knowledge and demographic/sociocultural attributes.

RESULTS

Maasai and Koore informants displayed high consensus on EVM but only the Koore displayed consensus on VB knowledge. EVM expertise in the Koore varied across gender, herd size, and level of VB expertise. EVM expertise was highest in the Maasai but was only associated with age. The only factor associated with VB expertise was EVM expertise in the Koore.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in consensus and the correlates of expertise across the Maassi and the Koore are likely related to differences in the cultural transmission of EVM and VB knowledge. Transmission dynamics are established by the integration of livestock within the socioecological systems of the Maasai and Koore and culture historical experiences with livestock disease. Consideration of the nature and coexistence of EVM and VB provides insight into the capacity of groups to cope with disease outbreaks, pharmaceutical use patterns, and the development of community health interventions.

Resource availability, mortality, and fertility: a path analytic approach to global life-history variation

Humans exhibit considerable diversity in timing and rate of reproduction. Life-history theory (LHT) suggests that ecological cues of resource richness and survival probabilities shape human phenotypes across populations. Populations experiencing high extrinsic mortality due to uncertainty in resources should exhibit faster life histories. Here we use a path analytic (PA) approach informed by LHT to model the multiple pathways between resources, mortality rates, and reproductive behavior in 191 countries. Resources that account for the most variance in population mortality rates are predicted to explain the most variance in total fertility rates. Results indicate that resources (e.g., calories, sanitation, education, and health-care expenditures) influence fertility rates in paths through communicable and noncommnunicable diseases. Paths acting through communicable disease are more strongly associated with fertility than are paths through noncommunicable diseases. These results suggest that a PA approach may help disaggregate extrinsic and intrinsic mortality factors in cross-cultural analyses. Such knowledge may be useful in developing targeted policies to decrease teenage pregnancy, total fertility rates, and thus issues associated with overpopulation.