Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries

OBJECTIVE

To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum.

DESIGN

Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems).

SETTING

Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa.

POPULATION

2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43-365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000-2009 and 2010-2019).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs).

RESULTS

Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000-2009 and 2010-2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.

Drivers of Decline in Diarrhea Mortality Between GEMS and VIDA Studies

BACKGROUND

Statistical modeling suggests that decreasing diarrhea-associated mortality rates in recent decades are largely attributed to improved case management, rotavirus vaccine, and economic development.

METHODS

We examined data collected in 2 multisite population-based diarrhea case-control studies, both conducted in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali: the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS; 2008-2011) and Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA; 2015-2018). Population-level diarrhea mortality and risk factor prevalence, estimated using these study data, were used to calculate the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhea mortality using a counterfactual framework. We performed a decomposition of the effects of the changes in exposure to each risk factor between GEMS and VIDA on diarrhea mortality for each site.

RESULTS

Diarrhea mortality among children under 5 in our African sites decreased by 65.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -80.0%, -45.0%) from GEMS to VIDA. Kenya and Mali had large relative declines in diarrhea mortality between the 2 periods with 85.9% (95% CI: -95.1%, -71.5%) and 78.0% (95% CI: -96.0%, 36.3%) reductions, respectively. Among the risk factors considered, the largest declines in diarrhea mortality between the 2 study periods were attributed to reduction in childhood wasting (27.2%; 95% CI: -39.3%, -16.8%) and an increased rotavirus vaccine coverage (23.1%; 95% CI: -28.4%, -19.4%), zinc for diarrhea treatment (12.1%; 95% CI: -16.0%, -8.9%), and oral rehydration salts (ORS) for diarrhea treatment (10.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The VIDA study sites demonstrated exceptional reduction in diarrhea mortality over the last decade. Site-specific differences highlight an opportunity for implementation science in collaboration with policymakers to improve the equitable coverage of these interventions globally.

Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems

OBJECTIVES

Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies.

METHODS

We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019).

RESULTS

Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]).

CONCLUSION

We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.

Women's risk of death beyond 42 days post partum: a pooled analysis of longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System data in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

WHO's standard definitions of pregnancy-related and maternal deaths only include deaths that occur within 42 days of delivery, termination, or abortion, with major implications for post-partum care and maternal mortality surveillance. We therefore estimated post-partum survival from childbirth up to 1 year post partum to evaluate the empirical justification for the 42-day post-partum threshold.

METHODS

We used prospective, longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data from 30 sites across 12 sub-Saharan African countries to estimate women's risk of death from childbirth until 1 year post partum from all causes. Observations were included if the childbirth occurred from 1991 onwards in the HDSS site and maternal age was 10-54 years. We calculated person-years as the time between childbirth and next birth, outmigration, death, or the end of the first year post partum, whichever occurred first. For six post-partum risk intervals (0-1 days, 2-6 days, 7-13 days, 14-41 days, 42-122 days, and 4-11 months), we calculated the adjusted rate ratios of death relative to a baseline risk of 12-17 months post partum.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 1991, and Feb 24, 2020, 647 104 births occurred in the HDSS sites, contributing to 602 170 person-years of exposure time and 1967 deaths within 1 year of delivery. After adjustment for confounding, mortality was 38·82 (95% CI 33·21-45·29) times higher than baseline on days 0-1 after childbirth, 4·97 (3·94-6·21) times higher for days 2-6, 3·35 (2·64-4·20) times higher for days 7-13, and 2·06 (1·74-2·44) times higher for days 14-41. From 42 days to 4 months post partum, mortality was still 1·20 (1·03-1·39) times higher (ie, a 20% higher risk), but deaths in this interval would be excluded from measurement of pregnancy-related mortality. Extending the WHO 42-day post-partum threshold up to 4 months would increase the post-partum pregnancy-related mortality ratio by 40%.

INTERPRETATION

This multicountry study has implications for measurement and clinical practice. It makes the case for WHO to extend the 42-day post-partum threshold to capture the full duration of risk of pregnancy-related deaths. There is a need for a new indicator to track late pregnancy-related deaths that occur beyond 42 days, which are otherwise excluded from global maternal health surveillance efforts. Our results also emphasise the need for international agencies to disaggregate estimates by antepartum, intrapartum, postpartum, and extended post-partum periods. Additionally, the schedule and content of postnatal care packages should reflect the extended duration of post-partum risk.

FUNDING

The UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Assessment of the consistency of health and demographic surveillance and household survey data: A demonstration at two HDSS sites in The Gambia

Objective

To assess whether an adapted Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) like cross-sectional household survey with full pregnancy histories can demonstrate the validity of health and demographic surveillance (HDSS) data by producing similar population structural characteristics and childhood mortality indicators at two HDSS sites in The Gambia–Farafenni and Basse.

Methods

A DHS-type survey was conducted of 2,580 households in the Farafenni HDSS, and 2,907 in the Basse HDSS. Household members were listed and pregnancy histories obtained for all women aged 15–49. HDSS datasets were extracted for the same households including residency episodes for all current and former members and compared with the survey data. Neonatal (0–28 days), infant (<1 year), child (1–4 years) and under-5 (< 5 years) mortality rates were derived from each source by site and five-year periods from 2001–2015 and by calendar year between 2011 and 2015 using Kaplan–Meier failure probabilities. Survey-HDSS rate ratios were determined using the Mantel-Haenszel method.

Results

The selected households in Farafenni comprised a total population of 27,646 in the HDSS, compared to 26,109 captured in the household survey, implying higher coverage of 94.4% (95% CI: 94.1–94.7; p<0.0001) against a hypothesised proportion of 90% in the HDSS. All population subgroups were equally covered by the HDSS except for the Wollof ethnic group. In Basse, the total HDSS population was 49,287, compared to 43,538 enumerated in the survey, representing an undercount of the HDSS by the survey with a coverage of 88.3% (95% CI: 88.0–88.6; p = 1). All sub-population groups were also under-represented by the survey. Except for the neonatal mortality rate for Farafenni, the childhood mortality indicators derived from pregnancy histories and HDSS data compare reasonably well by 5-year periods from 2001–2015. Annual estimates from the two data sources for the most recent quinquennium, 2011–2015, were similar in both sites, except for an excessively high neonatal mortality rate for Farafenni in 2015.

Conclusion

Overall, the adapted DHS-type survey has reasonably represented the Farafenni HDSS database using population size and structure; and both databases using childhood mortality indicators. If the hypothetical proportion is lowered to 85%, the survey would adequately validate both HDSS databases in all considered aspects. The adapted DHS-type sample household survey therefore has potential for validation of HDSS data.

Healthcare Seeking and Access to Care for Pneumonia, Sepsis, Meningitis, and Malaria in Rural Gambia

Children with acute infectious diseases may not present to health facilities, particularly in low-income countries. We investigated healthcare seeking using a cross-sectional community survey, health facility-based exit interviews, and interviews with customers of private pharmacies in 2014 in Upper River Region (URR) The Gambia, within the Basse Health & Demographic Surveillance System. We estimated access to care using surveillance data from 2008 to 2017 calculating disease incidence versus distance to the nearest health facility. In the facility-based survey, children and adult patients sought care initially at a pharmacy (27.9% and 16.7% respectively), from a relative (23.1% and 28.6%), at a local shop or market (13.5% and 16.7%), and on less than 5% of occasions with a community-based health worker, private clinic, or traditional healer. In the community survey, recent symptoms of pneumonia or sepsis (15% and 1.5%) or malaria (10% and 4.6%) were common in children and adults. Rates of reported healthcare-seeking were high with families of children favoring health facilities and adults favoring pharmacies. In the pharmacy survey, 47.2% of children and 30.4% of adults had sought care from health facilities before visiting the pharmacy. Incidence of childhood disease declined with increasing distance of the household from the nearest health facility with access to care ratios of 0.75 for outpatient pneumonia, 0.82 for hospitalized pneumonia, 0.87 for bacterial sepsis, and 0.92 for bacterial meningitis. In rural Gambia, patients frequently seek initial care at pharmacies and informal drug-sellers rather than community-based health workers. Surveillance underestimates disease incidence by 8-25%.

Health and demographic surveillance systems in low- and middle-income countries: history, state of the art and future prospects

Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) have been developed in several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa and Asia. This paper reviews their history, state of the art and future potential and highlights substantial areas of contribution by the late Professor Peter Byass.Historically, HDSS appeared in the second half of the twentieth century, responding to a dearth of accurate population data in poorly resourced settings to contextualise the study of interventions to improve health and well-being. The progress of the development of this network is described starting with Pholela, and progressing through Gwembe, Balabgarh, Niakhar, Matlab, Navrongo, Agincourt, Farafenni, and Butajira, and the emergence of the INDEPTH Network in the early 1990'sThe paper describes the HDSS methodology, data, strengths, and limitations. The strengths are particularly their temporal coverage, detail, dense linkage, and the fact that they exist in chronically under-documented populations in LMICs where HDSS sites operate. The main limitations are generalisability to a national population and a potential Hawthorne effect, whereby the project itself may have changed characteristics of the population.The future will include advances in HDSS data harmonisation, accessibility, and protection. Key applications of the data are to validate and assess bias in other datasets. A strong collaboration between a national HDSS network and the national statistics office is modelled in South Africa and Sierra Leone, and it is possible that other low- to middle-income countries will see the benefit and take this approach.

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia in The Gambia: 10 years of population-based surveillance

Background

The Gambia introduced seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in August 2009, followed by PCV13 in May, 2011, using a schedule of three primary doses without a booster dose or catch-up immunisation. We aimed to assess the long-term impact of PCV on disease incidence.

Methods

We did 10 years of population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and WHO defined radiological pneumonia with consolidation in rural Gambia. The surveillance population included all Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System residents aged 2 months or older. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities using standardised criteria for referral. Clinicians then applied criteria for patient investigation. We defined IPD as a compatible illness with isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae from a normally sterile site (cerebrospinal fluid, blood, or pleural fluid). We compared disease incidence between baseline (May 12, 2008–May 11, 2010) and post-vaccine years (2016–2017), in children aged 2 months to 14 years, adjusting for changes in case ascertainment over time.

Findings

We identified 22 728 patients for investigation and detected 342 cases of IPD and 2623 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2–59 months, IPD incidence declined from 184 cases per 100 000 person-years to 38 cases per 100 000 person-years, an 80% reduction (95% CI 69–87). Non-pneumococcal bacteraemia incidence did not change significantly over time (incidence rate ratio 0·88; 95% CI, 0·64–1·21). We detected zero cases of vaccine-type IPD in the 2–11 month age group in 2016–17. Incidence of radiological pneumonia decreased by 33% (95% CI 24–40), from 10·5 to 7·0 per 1000 person-years in the 2–59 month age group, while pneumonia hospitalisations declined by 27% (95% CI 22–31). In the 5–14 year age group, IPD incidence declined by 69% (95% CI −28 to 91) and radiological pneumonia by 27% (95% CI −5 to 49).

Interpretation

Routine introduction of PCV13 substantially reduced the incidence of childhood IPD and pneumonia in rural Gambia, including elimination of vaccine-type IPD in infants. Other low-income countries can expect substantial impact from the introduction of PCV13 using a schedule of three primary doses.

Funding

Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; Pfizer Ltd.

Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies

Public health emergencies, such as an Ebola disease outbreak, provide a complex and challenging environment for the evaluation of candidate vaccines. Here, we outline the need for flexible and responsive vaccine trial designs to be used in public health emergencies, and we summarize recommendations for their use in this setting.

Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Children of Rural Areas of The Gambia, 2008-2015

Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia is a substantial cause of childhood disease and death, but few studies have described its epidemiology in developing countries. Using a population-based surveillance system for pneumonia, sepsis, and meningitis, we estimated S. aureus bacteremia incidence and the case-fatality ratio in children <5 years of age in 2 regions in the eastern part of The Gambia during 2008–2015. Among 33,060 children with suspected pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis, we performed blood culture for 27,851; of 1,130 patients with bacteremia, 198 (17.5%) were positive for S. aureus. S. aureus bacteremia incidence was 78 (95% CI 67–91) cases/100,000 person-years in children <5 years of age and 2,080 (95% CI 1,621–2,627) cases/100,000 person-years in neonates. Incidence did not change after introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. The case-fatality ratio was 14.1% (95% CI 9.6%–19.8%). Interventions are needed to reduce the S. aureus bacteremia burden in The Gambia, particularly among neonates.

Under-five mortality in The Gambia: Comparison of the results of the first demographic and health survey with those from existing inquiries

BACKGROUND

In The Gambia, national estimates of under-five mortality (U5M) were from censuses and multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS). The country's first demographic and health survey (DHS) conducted in 2013 provided empirical disaggregated national estimates of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality trends.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the consistency and accuracy of the estimates of U5M from the existing data sources and its age-specific components in rural Gambia and produce reliable up-to-date estimates.

METHODS

Available national data on under-five mortality from 2000 onwards were extracted. Additionally, data from two DHS regions were compared to those from two health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) located within them. Indirect and direct estimates from the data were compared and flexible parametric survival methods used to predict mortality rates for all empirical data points up to 2015.

FINDINGS

Internal consistency checks on data quality for indirect estimation of U5M suggest that the data were plausible at national level once information from women aged 15-19 years was excluded. The DHS and HDSS data used to make direct U5M estimates were plausible, however HDSS data were of better quality. For 2009-2013, the DHS estimates agreed well with the 2013 census and 2010 MICS reports of U5M but was less accurate about the early births of older women. The most recent estimates from the 2013 DHS, which refer to 2011-12, are an U5M rate of 54/1000 livebirths (95% CI: 43-64) and a neonatal mortality rate of 21/1000 livebirths (95% CI: 15-27), contributing almost 40% of U5M in The Gambia. The DHS showed that for the decade prior to the survey, child mortality dropped by 55% and neonatal mortality by 31%. This indicates the importance of neonatal mortality in The Gambia, and the need to focus on neonatal survival, while maintaining currently successful strategies to further reduce U5M.

The role of leadership in people-centred health systems: a sub-national study in The Gambia

Recently, increasing attention has been given to behavioural and relational aspects of the people who both define and shape health systems, placing them at the core. A growing refrain includes the assertion that important decisions determining health system performance, including agenda setting, policy formulation and policy implementation, are made by people. Within this actor-oriented approach, good leadership has been identified as a key contributing factor in health systems strengthening. However, leadership remains ill-defined and under-researched, especially in resource-limited settings, and understanding the links between leadership and health outcomes remains a challenge. We explore the concept and practice of healthcare leadership at sub-national level in a low-income country setting, using a people-centric research methodology. In June and July 2013, 15 in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants in formal healthcare leadership roles across urban, peri-urban and rural settings of The Gambia, West Africa. Participants included the entire spectrum of Regional Health Team (RHT) Directors and Chief Executive Officers of all government hospitals, as well as one clinical officer-in-charge in a secondary-level major health centre. We found reference to several important aspects of, and approaches to, leadership, including (i) setting a clear vision; (ii) engendering shared leadership; and (iii) paying attention to human relations in management. Participants described attending to constituencies in government, international development agencies and civil society, as well as to the populations they serve. By illuminating the multi-polar networks within which these leaders are embedded, and through which they operate, we provide insight into the complex 'organizational ecology' of the Gambian health system. There is a need to further research and develop healthcare leadership across all levels, within various political, socio-economic and cultural contexts, in order to better work with a range of health actors and to engage them in identifying and acting upon opportunities for health systems strengthening.

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on pneumonia in The Gambia: population-based surveillance and case-control studies

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are used in many low-income countries but their impact on the incidence of pneumonia is unclear. The Gambia introduced PCV7 in August, 2009, and PCV13 in May, 2011. We aimed to measure the impact of the introduction of these vaccines on pneumonia incidence.

METHODS

We did population-based surveillance and case-control studies. The primary endpoint was WHO-defined radiological pneumonia with pulmonary consolidation. Population-based surveillance was for suspected pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months (minimum age 3 months in the case-control study) between May 12, 2008, and Dec 31, 2015. Surveillance for the impact study was limited to the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), whereas surveillance for the case-control study included both the BHDSS and Fuladu West Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities in the surveillance area using standardised criteria for referral to clinicians in Basse and Bansang. These clinicians recorded clinical findings and applied standardised criteria to identify patients with suspected pneumonia. We compared the incidence of pneumonia during the baseline period (May 12, 2008, to May 11, 2010) and the PCV13 period (Jan 1, 2014, to Dec 31, 2015). We also investigated the effectiveness of PCV13 using case-control methods between Sept 12, 2011, and Sept 31, 2014. Controls were aged 90 days or older, and were eligible to have received at least one dose of PCV13; cases had the same eligibility criteria with the addition of having WHO-defined radiological pneumonia.

FINDINGS

We investigated 18 833 children with clinical pneumonia and identified 2156 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2-11 months, the incidence of radiological pneumonia fell from 21·0 cases per 1000 person-years in the baseline period to 16·2 cases per 1000 person-years (23% decline, 95% CI 7-36) in 2014-15. In the 12-23 month age group, radiological pneumonia decreased from 15·3 to 10·9 cases per 1000 person-years (29% decline, 12-42). In children aged 2-4 years, incidence fell from 5·2 to 4·1 cases per 1000 person-years (22% decline, 1-39). Incidence of all clinical pneumonia increased by 4% (-1 to 8), but hospitalised cases declined by 8% (3-13). Pneumococcal pneumonia declined from 2·9 to 1·2 cases per 1000 person-years (58% decline, 22-77) in children aged 2-11 months and from 2·6 to 0·7 cases per 1000 person-years (75% decline, 47-88) in children aged 12-23 months. Hypoxic pneumonia fell from 13·1 to 5·7 cases per 1000 person-years (57% decline, 42-67) in children aged 2-11 months and from 6·8 to 1·9 cases per 1000 person-years (72% decline, 58-82) in children aged 12-23 months. In the case-control study, the best estimate of the effectiveness of three doses of PCV13 against radiological pneumonia was an adjusted odds ratio of 0·57 (0·30-1·08) in children aged 3-11 months and vaccine effectiveness increased with greater numbers of doses (p=0·026). The analysis in children aged 12 months and older was underpowered because there were few unvaccinated cases and controls.

INTERPRETATION

The introduction of PCV in The Gambia was associated with a moderate impact on the incidence of radiological pneumonia, a small reduction in cases of hospitalised pneumonia, and substantial reductions of pneumococcal and hypoxic pneumonia in young children. Low-income countries that introduce PCV13 with reasonable coverage can expect modest reductions in hospitalised cases of pneumonia and a marked impact on the incidence of severe childhood pneumonia.

FUNDING

GAVI's Pneumococcal vaccines Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Effect of maternal death on child survival in rural West Africa: 25 years of prospective surveillance data in The Gambia

Background

The death of a mother is a tragedy in itself but it can also have devastating effects for the survival of her children. We aim to explore the impact of a mother’s death on child survival in rural Gambia, West Africa.

Methods

We used 25 years of prospective surveillance data from the Farafenni Health and Demographic surveillance system (FHDSS). Mortality rates per 1,000 child-years up to ten years of age were estimated and Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted by maternal vital status. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine factors associated with child survival.

Findings

Between 1^st April 1989 and 31^st December 2014, a total of 2, 221 (7.8%) deaths occurred during 152,906 child-years of follow up. Overall mortality rate was 14.53 per 1,000 child-years (95% CI: 13.93–15.14). Amongst those whose mother died, the rate was 25.89 (95% CI: 17.99–37.25) compared to 14.44 (95% CI: 13.84–15.06) per 1,000 child-years for those whose mother did not die. Children were 4.66 (95% CI: 3.15–6.89) times more likely to die if their mother died compared to those with a surviving mother. Infants whose mothers died during delivery or shortly after were up to 7 times more likely to die within the first month of life compared to those whose mothers survived. Maternal vital status was significantly associated with the risk of dying within the first 2 years of life (p-value <0.05), while this was no longer observed for children over 2 years of age (P = 0.872). Other factors associated with an increased risk of dying were living in more rural areas, and birth spacing and year of birth.

Conclusions

Mother’s survival is strongly associated with child survival. Our findings highlight the importance of the continuum of care for both the mother and child not only throughout pregnancy, and childbirth but beyond 6 weeks post-partum.

Barriers to timely administration of birth dose vaccines in The Gambia, West Africa

OBJECTIVE

Although vaccine coverage in infants in sub-Saharan Africa is high, this is estimated at the age of 6-12 months. There is little information on the timely administration of birth dose vaccines. The objective of this study was to assess the timing of birth dose vaccines (hepatitis B, BCG and oral polio) and reasons for delayed administration in The Gambia.

METHODS

We used vaccination data from the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (FHDSS) between 2004 and 2014. Coverage was calculated at birth (0-1 day), day 7, day 28, 6 months and 1 year of age. Logistic regression models were used to identify demographic and socio-economic variables associated with vaccination by day 7 in children born between 2011 and 2014.

RESULTS

Most of the 10,851 children had received the first dose of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine by the age of 6 months (93.1%). Nevertheless, only 1.1% of them were vaccinated at birth, 5.4% by day 7, and 58.4% by day 28. Vaccination by day 7 was associated with living in urban areas (West rural: adjusted OR (AOR)=6.13, 95%CI: 3.20-11.75, east rural: AOR=6.72, 95%CI: 3.66-12.33) and maternal education (senior-educations: AOR=2.43, 95%CI: 1.17-5.06); and inversely associated with distance to vaccination delivery points (≧2km: AOR=0.41, 95%CI: 0.24-0.70), and Fula ethnicity (AOR=0.60, 95%CI: 0.40-0.91).

CONCLUSION

Vaccine coverage in The Gambia is high but infants are usually vaccinated after the neonatal period. Interventions to ensure the implementation of national vaccination policies are urgently needed.

The large contribution of twins to neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in The Gambia, a 5-year prospective study

BACKGROUND

A high twinning rate and an increased risk of mortality among twins contribute to the high burden of infant mortality in Africa. This study examined the contribution of twins to neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in The Gambia, and evaluated factors that contribute to the excess mortality among twins.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) collected from January 2009 to December 2013. Demographic and epidemiological variables were assessed for their association with mortality in different age groups.

RESULTS

We included 32,436 singletons and 1083 twins in the analysis (twining rate 16.7/1000 deliveries). Twins represented 11.8 % of all neonatal deaths and 7.8 % of post-neonatal deaths. Mortality among twins was higher than in singletons [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 4.33 (95 % CI: 3.09, 6.06) in the neonatal period and 2.61 (95 % CI: 1.85, 3.68) in the post-neonatal period]. Post-neonatal mortality among twins increased in girls (P for interaction = 0.064), being born during the dry season (P for interaction = 0.030) and lacking access to clean water (P for interaction = 0.042).

CONCLUSION

Mortality among twins makes a significant contribution to the high burden of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in The Gambia and preventive interventions targeting twins should be prioritized.

Child Mortality after Discharge from a Health Facility following Suspected Pneumonia, Meningitis or Septicaemia in Rural Gambia: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To measure mortality and its risk factors among children discharged from a health centre in rural Gambia.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study between 12 May 2008 and 11 May 2012. Children aged 2-59 months, admitted with suspected pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis after presenting to primary and secondary care facilities, were followed for 180 days after discharge. We developed models associating post-discharge mortality with clinical syndrome on admission and clinical risk factors.

FINDINGS

One hundred and five of 3755 (2.8%) children died, 80% within 3 months of discharge. Among children aged 2-11 and 12-59 months, there were 30 and 29 deaths per 1000 children per 180 days respectively, compared to 11 and 5 respectively in the resident population. Children with suspected pneumonia unaccompanied by clinically severe malnutrition (CSM) had the lowest risk of post-discharge mortality. Mortality increased in children with suspected meningitis or septicaemia without CSM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6 and 2.2 respectively). The risk of mortality greatly increased with CSM on admission: CSM with suspected pneumonia (HR 8.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4 to 15), suspected sepsis (HR 18.4; 95% CI 11.3 to 30), or suspected meningitis (HR 13.7; 95% CI 4.2 to 45). Independent associations with mortality were: mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 11.5-13.0 cm compared to >13.0 cm (HR 7.2; 95% CI 3.0 to 17.0), MUAC 10.5-11.4 cm (HR 24; 95% CI 9.4 to 62), and MUAC <10.5 cm (HR 44; 95% CI 18 to 108), neck stiffness (HR 10.4; 95% CI 3.1 to 34.8), non-medical discharge (HR 4.7; 95% CI 2.0 to 10.9), dry season discharge (HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.2 to 3.3), while greater haemoglobin (HR 0.82; 0.73 to 0.91), axillary temperature (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87), and oxygen saturation (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99) were associated with reduced mortality.

CONCLUSION

Gambian children experience increased mortality after discharge from primary and secondary care. Interventions should target both moderately and severely malnourished children.

Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System in The Gambia

The Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Farafenni HDSS) is located 170 km from the coast in a rural area of The Gambia, north of the River Gambia. It was set up in 1981 by the UK Medical Research Council Laboratories to generate demographic and health information required for the evaluation of a village-based, primary health care programme in 40 villages. Regular updates of demographic events and residency status have subsequently been conducted every 4 months. The surveillance area was extended in 2002 to include Farafenni Town and surrounding villages to support randomized, controlled trials. With over three decades of prospective surveillance, and through specific scientific investigations, the platform (population ≈ 50,000) has generated data on: morbidity and mortality due to malaria in children and during pregnancy; non-communicable disease among adults; reproductive health; and levels and trends in childhood and maternal mortality. Other information routinely collected includes causes of death through verbal autopsy, and household socioeconomic indicators. The current portfolio of the platform includes tracking Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) attainments in rural Gambia and cause-of-death determination.

Spatial analysis of under-5 mortality and potential risk factors in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System, the Gambia

OBJECTIVES

To describe the spatial pattern in under-5 mortality rates in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) and to test for associations between under-5 deaths and biodemographic and socio-economic risk factors.

METHODS

Using data on child survival from 2007 to 2011 in the BHDSS, we mapped under-5 mortality by km(2) . We tested for spatial clustering of high or low death rates using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Associations between child death and a variety of biodemographic and socio-economic factors were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and deviance residuals from the best-fitting model were tested for spatial clustering.

RESULTS

The overall death rate among children under 5 was 0.0195 deaths per child-year. We found two spatial clusters of high death rates and one spatial cluster of low death rates; children in the two high clusters died at a rate of 0.0264 and 0.0292 deaths per child-year, while in the low cluster, the rate was 0.0144 deaths per child-year. We also found that children born to Fula mothers experienced, on average, a higher hazard of death, whereas children born in the households in the upper two quintiles of asset ownership experienced, on average, a lower hazard of death. After accounting for the spatial distribution of biodemographic and socio-economic characteristics, we found no residual spatial pattern in child mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that significant inequality in under-5 death rates can occur within a relatively small area (1100 km(2) ). Risks of under-5 mortality were associated with mother's ethnicity and household wealth. If high mortality clusters persist, then equity concerns may require additional public health efforts in those areas.

Disease-specific mortality burdens in a rural Gambian population using verbal autopsy, 1998-2007

Objective

To estimate and evaluate the cause-of-death structure and disease-specific mortality rates in a rural area of The Gambia as determined using the InterVA-4 model.

Design

Deaths and person-years of observation were determined by age group for the population of the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance area from January 1998 to December 2007. Causes of death were determined by verbal autopsy (VA) using the InterVA-4 model and ICD-10 disease classification. Assigned causes of death were classified into six broad groups: infectious and parasitic diseases; cancers; other non-communicable diseases; neonatal; maternal; and external causes. Poisson regression was used to estimate age and disease-specific mortality rates, and likelihood ratio tests were used to determine statistical significance.

Results

A total of 3,203 deaths were recorded and VA administered for 2,275 (71%). All-age mortality declined from 15 per 1,000 person-years in 1998–2001 to 8 per 1,000 person-years in 2005–2007. Children aged 1–4 years registered the most marked (74%) decline from 27 to 7 per 1,000 person-years. Communicable diseases accounted for half (49.9%) of the deaths in all age groups, dominated by acute respiratory infections (ARI) (13.7%), malaria (12.9%) and pulmonary tuberculosis (10.2%). The leading causes of death among infants were ARI (5.59 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 4.38–7.15]) and malaria (4.11 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 3.09–5.47]). Mortality rates in children aged 1–4 years were 3.06 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 2.58–3.63) for malaria, and 1.05 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.79–1.41) for ARI. The HIV-related mortality rate in this age group was 1.17 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.89–1.54). Pulmonary tuberculosis and communicable diseases other than malaria, HIV/AIDS and ARI were the main killers of adults aged 15 years and over. Stroke-related mortality increased to become the leading cause of death among the elderly aged 60 years or more in 2005–2007.

Conclusions

Mortality in the Farafenni HDSS area was dominated by communicable diseases. Malaria and ARI were the leading causes of death in the general population. In addition to these, diarrhoeal disease was a particularly important cause of death among children under 5 years of age, as was pulmonary tuberculosis among adults aged 15 years and above.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background

Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.

Objective

To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality.

Design

All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates.

Results

A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality.

Conclusions

These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.

Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites

BACKGROUND

Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings.

OBJECTIVE

To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories.

DESIGN

All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.

Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Background

Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies.

Objective

To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions.

Design

From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992–2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006–2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality.

Results

Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level.

Conclusions

The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology.

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

BACKGROUND

As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data.

OBJECTIVE

To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia.

DESIGN

Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population.

RESULTS

The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Cause-specific mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

BACKGROUND

Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.

OBJECTIVE

To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns.

DESIGN

Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death.

RESULTS

A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.

Pregnancy-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background

Women continue to die in unacceptably large numbers around the world as a result of pregnancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Part of the problem is a lack of accurate, population-based information characterising the issues and informing solutions. Population surveillance sites, such as those operated within the INDEPTH Network, have the potential to contribute to bridging the information gaps.

Objective

To describe patterns of pregnancy-related mortality at INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia in terms of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and cause-specific mortality rates.

Design

Data on individual deaths among women of reproductive age (WRA) (15–49) resident in INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database using the INDEPTH 2013 population standard, the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) standard, and the InterVA model for assigning cause of death.

Results

These analyses are based on reports from 14 INDEPTH sites, covering 14,198 deaths among WRA over 2,595,605 person-years observed. MMRs varied between 128 and 461 per 100,000 live births, while maternal mortality rates ranged from 0.11 to 0.74 per 1,000 person-years. Detailed rates per cause are tabulated, including analyses of direct maternal, indirect maternal, and incidental pregnancy-related deaths across the 14 sites.

Conclusions

As expected, these findings confirmed unacceptably high continuing levels of maternal mortality. However, they also demonstrate the effectiveness of INDEPTH sites and of the VA methods applied to arrive at measurements of maternal mortality that are essential for planning effective solutions and monitoring programmatic impacts.

Coverage and timing of children's vaccination: an evaluation of the expanded programme on immunisation in The Gambia

Objective

To evaluate the coverage and timeliness of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in The Gambia.

Methods

Vaccination data were obtained between January 2005 and December 2012 from the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (FHDSS), the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), the Kiang West Demographic surveillance system (KWDSS), a cluster survey in the more urban Western Health Region (WR) and a cross sectional study in four clinics in the semi-urban Greater Banjul area of WR. Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to estimate the proportion vaccinated by age and to assess timeliness to vaccination.

Findings

BCG vaccine uptake was over 95% in all regions. Coverage of DPT1 ranged from 93.2% in BHDSS to 99.8% in the WR. Coverage decreased with increasing number of DPT doses; DPT3 coverage ranged from 81.7% in BHDSS to 99.0% in WR. Measles vaccination coverage ranged from 83.3% in BHDSS to 97.0% in WR. DPT4 booster coverage was low and ranged from 43.9% in the WR to 82.8% in KWDSS. Across all regions, delaying on previous vaccinations increased the likelihood of being delayed for the subsequent vaccination.

Conclusions

The Gambia health system achieves high vaccine coverage in the first year of life. However, there continues to be a delay to vaccination which may impact on the introduction of new vaccines. Examples of effectively functioning EPI programmes such as The Gambia one may well be important models for other low income countries struggling to achieve high routine vaccination coverage.

The INDEPTH standard population for low- and middle-income countries, 2013

Crude rates such as the crude death rate are functions of both the age-specific rates and the age composition of a population. However, differences in the age structure between two populations or two time periods can result in specious differences in the corresponding crude rates making direct comparisons between populations or across time inappropriate. Therefore, when comparing crude rates between populations, it is desirable to eliminate or minimize the influence of age composition. This task is accomplished by using a standard age structure yielding an age-standardized rate. This paper proposes an updated International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) standard for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) based on newly available data from the health and demographic surveillance system site members of the INDEPTH network located throughout Africa and southern Asia. The updated INDEPTH standard should better reflect the age structure of LMICs and result in more accurate health indicators and demographic rates. We demonstrate use of the new INDEPTH standard along with several existing ‘world’ standards and show how resulting age-standardized crude deaths rates differ when using the various standard age compositions.

Serogroup W135 meningococcal disease, The Gambia, 2012

In 2012, an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W135 occurred in The Gambia. The attack rate was highest among young children. The associated risk factors were male sex, contact with meningitis patients, and difficult breathing. Enhanced surveillance facilitates early epidemic detection, and multiserogroup conjugate vaccine could reduce meningococcal epidemics in The Gambia.

Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Survey: understanding diarrheal disease in rural Gambia

Diarrheal disease causes ∼1.34 million deaths per year among children under 5 years of age globally. We conducted a Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Survey of 1,012 primary caregivers of children aged 0–11, 12–23, and 24–59 months randomly selected from a Demographic Surveillance population in rural Gambia. Point prevalence of diarrhea was 7.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.1–9.8); 23.3% had diarrhea within the previous 2 weeks. Caregivers of 81.5% of children with diarrhea sought healthcare outside their home, but only 48.4% of them visited a health center. Only 17.0% (95% CI = 12.1–23.2) of children with diarrhea received oral rehydration solution (ORS) at home. Abbreviated surveys conducted on six occasions over the subsequent 2 years showed no change in prevalence or treatment-seeking behavior. Diarrhea remains a significant problem in rural young Gambian children. Encouraging care-seeking behavior at health centers and promoting ORS use can reduce mortality and morbidity in this population.

Achieving comprehensive childhood immunization: an analysis of obstacles and opportunities in The Gambia

Introduction Immunization is a vital component in the drive to decrease global childhood mortality, yet challenges remain in ensuring wide coverage of immunization and full immunization, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study assessed immunization coverage and the determinants of immunization in a semi-rural area in The Gambia.

Methods Data were drawn from the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Children born within the surveillance area between January 2000 and December 2010 were included. Main outcomes assessed included measles, BCG and DTP vaccination status and full immunization by 12 months of age as reported on child healthcards. Predictor variables were evaluated based on a literature review and included gender, ethnicity, area of residence, household wealth and mother’s age.

Results Of the 7363 children included in the study, immunization coverage was 73% (CI 72–74) for measles, 86% (CI 86–87) for BCG, 79% (CI 78–80) for three doses of DTP and 52% (CI 51–53) for full immunization. Coverage was significantly associated with area of residence and ethnicity, with children in urban areas and of Mandinka ethnicity being least likely to be fully immunized.

Conclusions Despite high levels of coverage of many individual vaccines, delivery of vaccinations later in the schedule and achieving high coverage of full immunization remain challenges, even in a country with a committed childhood immunization programme, such as The Gambia. Our data indicate areas for targeted interventions by the national Expanded Programme of Immunization.

Monitoring the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines into West Africa: design and implementation of a population-based surveillance system

Routine use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in developing countries is expected to lead to a significant reduction in childhood deaths. However, PCVs have been associated with replacement disease with non-vaccine serotypes. We established a population-based surveillance system to document the direct and indirect impact of PCVs on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and radiological pneumonia in those aged 2 months and older in The Gambia, and to monitor changes in serotype-specific IPD. Here we describe how this surveillance system was set up and is being operated as a partnership between the Medical Research Council Unit and the Gambian Government. This surveillance system is expected to provide crucial information for immunisation policy and serves as a potential model for those introducing routine PCV vaccination in diverse settings.

Reaching millennium development goal 4 - the Gambia

To describe how, through a DSS in a rural area of The Gambia, it has been possible to measure substantial reductions in child mortality rates and how we investigated whether the decline paralleled the registered fall in malaria incidence in the country.

METHODS

Demographic surveillance data spanning 19.5 years (1 April 1989-30 September 2008) from 42 villages around the town of Farafenni, The Gambia, were used to estimate childhood mortality rates for neonatal, infant, child (1-4 years) and under-5 age groups. Data were presented in five a priori defined time periods, and annual rates per 1000 live births were derived from Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities.

RESULTS

From 1989-1992 to 2004-2008, under-5 mortality declined by 56% (95% CI: 48-63%), from 165 (95% CI: 151-181) per 1000 live births to 74 (95% CI: 65-84) per 1000 live births. In 1- to 4-year-olds, mortality during the period 2004-2008 was 69% (95% CI: 60-76%) less than in 1989-1992. The corresponding mortality decline in infants was 39% (95% CI: 23-52%); in neonates, it was 38% (95% CI: 13-66%). The derived annual under-5 mortality rates declined from 159 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 45 per 1000 live births in 2008, thus implying an attainment of MDG4 seven years in advance of the target year of 2015.

CONCLUSION

Achieving MDG4 is possible in poor, rural areas of Africa through widespread deployment of relatively simple measures that improve child survival, such as immunisation and effective malaria control.

Two strategies for the delivery of IPTc in an area of seasonal malaria transmission in the Gambia: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) provides an effective way of delivering intermittent preventive treatment for malaria (IPT) to infants. However, it is uncertain how IPT can be delivered most effectively to older children. Therefore, we have compared two approaches to the delivery of IPT to Gambian children: distribution by village health workers (VHWs) or through reproductive and child health (RCH) trekking teams. In rural areas, RCH trekking teams provide most of the health care to children under the age of 5 years in the Infant Welfare Clinic, and provide antenatal care for pregnant women.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

During the 2006 malaria transmission season, the catchment populations of 26 RCH trekking clinics in The Gambia, each with 400-500 children 6 years of age and under, were randomly allocated to receive IPT from an RCH trekking team or from a VHW. Treatment with a single dose of sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) plus three doses of amodiaquine (AQ) were given at monthly intervals during the malaria transmission season. Morbidity from malaria was monitored passively throughout the malaria transmission season in all children, and a random sample of study children from each cluster was examined at the end of the malaria transmission season. The primary study endpoint was the incidence of malaria. Secondary endpoints included coverage of IPTc, mean haemoglobin (Hb) concentration, and the prevalence of asexual malaria parasitaemia at the end of malaria transmission period. Financial and economic costs associated with the two delivery strategies were collected and incremental cost and effects were compared. A nested case-control study was used to estimate efficacy of IPT treatment courses. Treatment with SP plus AQ was safe and well tolerated. There were 49 cases of malaria with parasitaemia above 5,000/µl in the areas where IPT was delivered through RCH clinics and 21 cases in the areas where IPT was delivered by VHWs, (incidence rates 2.8 and 1.2 per 1,000 child months, respectively, rate difference 1.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.24 to 3.5]). Delivery through VHWs achieved a substantially higher coverage level of three courses of IPT than delivery by RCH trekking teams (74% versus 48%, a difference of 27% [95% CI 16%-38%]). For both methods of delivery, coverage was unrelated to indices of wealth, with similar coverage being achieved in the poorest and wealthiest groups. The prevalence of anaemia was low in both arms of the trial at the end of the transmission season. Efficacy of IPTc against malaria during the month after each treatment course was 87% (95% CI 54%-96%). Delivery of IPTc by VHWs was less costly in both economic and financial terms than delivery through RCH trekking teams, resulting in incremental savings of US$872 and US$1,244 respectively. The annual economic cost of delivering at least the first dose of each course of IPTc was US$3.47 and US$1.63 per child using trekking team and VHWs respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting in The Gambia, delivery of IPTc to children 6 years of age and under by VHWs is more effective and less costly than delivery through RCH trekking clinics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00376155. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Social acceptability and durability of two different house screening interventions against exposure to malaria vectors, Plasmodium falciparum infection, and anemia in children in the Gambia, West Africa

The social acceptability and durability of two house screening interventions were addressed using focus group discussions, questionnaires, indoor climate measurements, and durability surveys. Participants recognized that screening stopped mosquitoes (79-96%) and other insects (86-98%) entering their houses. These and other benefits were appreciated by significantly more recipients of full screening than users of screened ceilings. Full screened houses were 0.26°C hotter at night (P = 0.05) than houses with screened ceilings and 0.51°C (P < 0.001) hotter than houses with no screening (28.43°C), though only 9% of full screened house users and 17% of screened ceiling users complained about the heat. Although 71% of screened doors and 85% of ceilings had suffered some damage after 12 months, the average number of holes of any size was < 5 for doors and < 7 for ceilings. In conclusion, house screening is a well-appreciated and durable vector control tool.

Oral activated charcoal prevents experimental cerebral malaria in mice and in a randomized controlled clinical trial in man did not interfere with the pharmacokinetics of parenteral artesunate

Background

Safe, cheap and effective adjunct therapies preventing the development of, or reducing the mortality from, severe malaria could have considerable and rapid public health impact. Oral activated charcoal (oAC) is a safe and well tolerated treatment for acute poisoning, more recently shown to have significant immunomodulatory effects in man. In preparation for possible efficacy trials in human malaria, we sought to determine whether oAC would i) reduce mortality due to experimental cerebral malaria (ECM) in mice, ii) modulate immune and inflammatory responses associated with ECM, and iii) affect the pharmacokinetics of parenteral artesunate in human volunteers.

Methods/Principal Findings

We found that oAC provided significant protection against P. berghei ANKA-induced ECM, increasing overall survival time compared to untreated mice (p<0.0001; hazard ratio 16.4; 95% CI 6.73 to 40.1). Protection from ECM by oAC was associated with reduced numbers of splenic TNF⁺ CD4⁺ T cells and multifunctional IFNγ⁺TNF⁺ CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells. Furthermore, we identified a whole blood gene expression signature (68 genes) associated with protection from ECM. To evaluate whether oAC might affect current best available anti-malarial treatment, we conducted a randomized controlled open label trial in 52 human volunteers (ISRCTN NR. 64793756), administering artesunate (AS) in the presence or absence of oAC. We demonstrated that co-administration of oAC was safe and well-tolerated. In the 26 subjects further analyzed, we found no interference with the pharmacokinetics of parenteral AS or its pharmacologically active metabolite dihydroartemisinin.

Conclusions/Significance

oAC protects against ECM in mice, and does not interfere with the pharmacokinetics of parenteral artesunate. If future studies succeed in establishing the efficacy of oAC in human malaria, then the characteristics of being inexpensive, well-tolerated at high doses and requiring no sophisticated storage would make oAC a relevant candidate for adjunct therapy to reduce mortality from severe malaria, or for immediate treatment of suspected severe malaria in a rural setting.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN64793756

Access to health care and mortality of children under 5 years of age in the Gambia: a case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether traditional measures of access to health care (distance and travel time to a facility) and non-traditional measures (social and financial support indicators) are associated with mortality among children under 5 years of age in the Gambia.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study in a population under demographic surveillance. Cases (n = 140) were children under 5 years of age who died between 31 December 2003 and 30 April 2006. Each case was matched in age and sex to five controls (n = 700). Information was gathered by interviewing primary caregivers. The data were analysed using conditional logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Of traditional measures of access, only rural versus urban/periurban residence was important: children from rural areas were more likely to die (OR: 4.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.2-20.2). For non-traditional measures, children were more likely to die if their primary caregivers lacked help with meal preparation (OR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.2-4.1), had no one to relax with (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-2.9), had no one who could offer good advice (OR: 23.1; 95% CI: 4.3-123.4), had little say over how earned money was spent (OR: 12.7; 95% CI: 1.3-127.6), were unable to cut spending for health care (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) or had to carry out odd jobs to pay for the care (OR: 3.4; 95% CI: 2.1-5.5). A protective effect was observed when the caregiver had other children to care for (OR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1-0.5).

CONCLUSION

Improving access to health-care for children in the Gambia and similar settings is not simply a matter of reducing travel time and distance to a health facility, but requires improvements in caregivers' support networks and their access to the financial resources they need.

Preventive measures in infancy to reduce under-five mortality: a case-control study in The Gambia

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between child mortality and common preventive interventions: vaccination, trained birthing attendants, tetanus toxoid during pregnancy, breastfeeding and vitamin A supplementation.

METHODS

Case-control study in a population under demographic surveillance. Cases (n = 141) were children under five who died. Each was age and sex-matched to five controls (n = 705). Information was gathered by interviewing primary caregivers.

RESULTS

All but one of the interventions - whether the mother had received tetanus toxoid during pregnancy - were protective against child mortality after multivariate analysis. Having a trained person assisting at child birth (OR 0.2 95% CI 0.1-0.4), receiving all vaccinations by 9 months of age (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.01-0.3), being breastfed for more than 12 months (Children breastfed between 13 and 24 months OR 0.1 95% CI 0.03-0.3, more than 25 months OR 0.1 95% CI 0.01-0.5) and receiving vitamin A supplementation at or after 6 months of age (OR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.2) were protective against child death.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the value of at least four available interventions in the prevention of under-five death in The Gambia. It is now important to identify those who are not receiving them and why, and to intervene to improve coverage across the population.

Comparison of all-cause and malaria-specific mortality from two West African countries with different malaria transmission patterns

Background

Malaria is a leading cause of death in children below five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. All-cause and malaria-specific mortality rates for children under-five years old in a mesoendemic malaria area (The Gambia) were compared with those from a hyper/holoendemic area (Burkina Faso).

Methods

Information on observed person-years (PY), deaths and cause of death was extracted from online search, using key words: "Africa, The Gambia, Burkina Faso, malaria, Plasmodium falciparum, mortality, child survival, morbidity". Missing person-years were estimated and all-cause and malaria-specific mortality were calculated as rates per 1,000 PY. Studies were classified as longitudinal/clinical studies or surveys/censuses. Linear regression was used to investigate mortality trends.

Results

Overall, 39 and 18 longitudinal/clinical studies plus 10 and 15 surveys and censuses were identified for The Gambia and Burkina Faso respectively (1960–2004). Model-based estimates for under-five all-cause mortality rates show a decline from 1960 to 2000 in both countries (Burkina Faso: from 71.8 to 39.0), but more markedly in The Gambia (from 104.5 to 28.4). The weighted-average malaria-specific mortality rate per 1000 person-years for Burkina Faso (15.4, 95% CI: 13.0–18.3) was higher than that in The Gambia (9.5, 95% CI: 9.1–10.1). Malaria mortality rates did not decline over time in either country.

Conclusion

Child mortality in both countries declined significantly in the period 1960 to 2004, possibly due to socio-economic development, improved health services and specific intervention projects. However, there was little decline in malaria mortality suggesting that there had been no major impact of malaria control programmes during this period. The difference in malaria mortality rates across countries points to significant differences in national disease control policies and/or disease transmission patterns.

Health seeking behaviour, health system experience and tuberculosis case finding in Gambians with cough

Background

Studies in Africa investigating health-seeking behaviour by interviewing tuberculosis patients have revealed patient knowledge issues and significant delays to diagnosis. We aimed to study health-seeking behaviour and experience of those with cough in The Gambia and to identify whether they had tuberculosis.

Methods

During a round of a population under 3-monthly demographic surveillance, we identified people >10 years old who had been coughing ≥ 3 weeks. A questionnaire was administered concerning demographic data, cough, knowledge, health seeking, and experience at health facilities. Case finding utilised sputum smear and chest X-ray.

Results

122/29,871 coughing individuals were identified. Of 115 interviewed, 93 (81%) had sought treatment; 76 (81.7%) from the health system. Those that visited an alternative health provider first were significantly older than those who visited the health system first (p = 0.03). The median time to seek treatment was 2 weeks (range 0 – 106). 54 (58.1%) made their choice of provider because they believed it was right. Of those who left the health system to an alternative provider (n = 13): 7 believed it was the best place, 3 cited cost and 2 failure to improve. 3 cases were identified by sputum analysis, 11 more by X-ray; all had visited the health system first. Total 'excess' cough time was 1079 person weeks.

Conclusion

The majority of people with cough in this population seek appropriate help early. Improved case detection might be achieved through the use of chest X-ray in addition to sputum smear.

Fertility in Kenya and Uganda: a comparative study of trends and determinants

Between 1980 and 2000 total fertility in Kenya fell by about 40 per cent, from some eight births per woman to around five. During the same period, fertility in Uganda declined by less than 10 per cent. An analysis of the proximate determinants shows that the difference was due primarily to greater contraceptive use in Kenya, though in Uganda there was also a reduction in pathological sterility. The Demographic and Health Surveys show that women in Kenya wanted fewer children than those in Uganda, but that in Uganda there was also a greater unmet need for contraception. We suggest that these differences may be attributed, in part at least, first, to the divergent paths of economic development followed by the two countries after Independence; and, second, to the Kenya Government's active promotion of family planning through the health services, which the Uganda Government did not promote until 1995.

Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys

This article reports levels, trends, and age patterns of adult mortality in 23 sub-Saharan Africa countries, based on the sibling histories and orphanhood data collected by the countries’ Demographic and Health Surveys. Adult mortality has risen sharply since HIV became prevalent, but the size and speed of the mortality increase varies greatly among countries. Excess mortality is concentrated among women aged 25–39 and among men aged 30–44. These data suggest that the increase in the number of men who die each year has exceeded somewhat the increase for women. It is time for a systematic attempt to reconcile the demographic and epidemiological evidence concerning AIDS in Africa.