[Despite corrective measures, will there still be a lack of anaesthetists and intensive care physicians in France by 2020?]

OBJECTIVES

the demographic decline in the Anaesthesia and Intensive Care practitioners predicted for 2020 may bring into question the speciality's vocation, and indeed peri-operative care as a whole in France. The objective of this study is to assess the French Anaesthetist and Intensive Care physicians' demographics in 2010, and predicted numbers for 2020 taking into account recently initiated corrective measures.

METHODS

data originating from the CFAR-SFAR-INED French medical demographics survey(1), the French General Medical Council, and various studies and projections published by the INED and the DREES(2) were collected and analysed. Factors were then identified that were likely to affect personnel numbers, speciality training requirements and the demand for patient care.

RESULTS

french General Medical Council data is the most reliable and reports 9692 Anaesthetists and Intensive Care physicians practising regularly in France on the 1(st) of January 2009. Of those, 9,391 (96.9 %) were practising on the mainland. Personnel growth reduced due to the effect of specialist training selection procedures: the percentage of doctors entering Anaesthesia and Intensive Care training dropped from 12.7 % per year in 1960 to 1.5 % in 1990. Since 2002, personnel in regular practice dropped by 1.1 % per year. Relatively few doctors were leaving the profession, the decrease was due to the reduction in the numbers entering practice: 222 per year on average from 1988 through 2004, compared to 355 per year for the two preceding decades (1971 to 1987). Anaesthetists and Intensive Care physicians are growing older; the average age increased from 42.8 years of age in 1989 to 51 on the 1(st) of January 2009. Further evidence of this trend is that the number of practitioners less than fifty years of age continues to decrease; just 47.5 % in 2005 compared with 80 % in 1989. 5,139 anaesthetists between 50 and 64 years of age will leave the profession before 2020, over half (52.3 %) of the total practising in 2005. Practitioner density increased from 13.1 Anaesthetists and Intensive Care physicians per 100,000 inhabitants in 1989 to 16.2 in January2006. If only those in regular practice are considered, density is stable at 15.3 per 100,000 inhabitants as of 1(st)January2009. The most recent 2009 projections predict a 13 % decrease in the number of practitioners between 2006 and 2015, and a 16 to 20 % decrease by 2020. Initial projections in 1991 and further projections in 1999 predicted 50 % and 35 to 50 % decreases by 2020. Numerous factors could amplify this reduction in the absence of increased training efforts. These factors include population growth (+6 to 7 % by 2020), the increasing health care demands of an ageing population (+15 %), medical progress, the increasing feminisation of the medical workforce, projected retirements and reductions in migratory flows.

CONCLUSION

despite increasing training throughput and increasing medical immigration, Anaesthetists and Intensive Care physicians in France are ageing noticeably and reducing in number. This foreshadows further personnel reductions in the future. A demographic catastrophe may well have been avoided; a more moderate reduction in personnel persists for 2020 with an ongoing risk of numerical inadequacy with respect to needs. This situation justifies a further increase in training throughput, along with adaptations in the provision of care, so as to ensure maintained care standards.

Predictive factors of long-term mortality of persons with tetraplegic spinal cord injury: an 11-year French prospective study

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal study with mortality follow-up.

OBJECTIVE

Identify predictive factors for long-term mortality following tetraplegic spinal cord injury (TSCI).

SETTING

The Tetrafigap survey is a multi-centre epidemiological survey on the long-term outcome of persons with TSCI, initiated in France in 1995 with the participation of 35 rehabilitation centres.

METHODS

The mortality follow-up involves 1241 persons with TSCI who were admitted to one of the study rehabilitation units at the initial phase and who completed the initial self-administered questionnaire. There were 226 observed deaths (18.2%) during an 11-year period. Logistic regression methods, with estimates of odds ratios (ORs), incorporating clinical, functional and social participation data were used to determine the factors related to mortality. This was followed by multivariate analysis to determine the best predictive factors for long-term mortality.

RESULTS

Risk of death increases significantly with age but not with the time elapsed since the accident. The risk of death is higher in men. Interestingly, clinical variables are not the best predictors of long-term mortality. Instead, the significant effect of poor social participation (being single, infrequent contact with friends) and functional limitations (full assistance required with dressing or eating) persists after adjustment for other variables.

CONCLUSION

Once the medical situation becomes more stable, factors related to the long-term mortality of persons with TSCI are not exactly identical to those observed in the short acute-phase and during the first year after the accident. Social participation has a significant effect on mortality.

Healthy working life expectancies at age 50 in Europe: a new indicator

OBJECTIVES

The absence of disease or disability and active involvement in society are considered as essential dimensions of successful ageing. To assess these concepts, we propose a new indicator the Healthy Working Life Expectancy (HWLE) that associates health status and productive engagement, in order to compare various situations in Europe.

DESIGN

The study population is drawn from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) which is the unique source of longitudinal data, providing comparable information between 1995 and 2001 on health and work statuses for a sample of some 60,000 household's representative of the population of: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Based on the multi-state life table approach conventionally used for calculating healthy life expectancies, the HWLE corresponds to the number of years spent between the ages of 50 and 70 both in good health and at work.

RESULTS

In average, among the 20 years available between age 50 and age 70, the HWLE is 7.5 years for men and 4.8 years for women, ie, one half and one third respectively of the number of years spent in good health (14.1 and 13.5 years). The countries where the healthy working life expectancy of seniors is the highest are also the countries where the levels of employment of seniors are higher. Conversely, health status has only a weak influence on the HWLE indicator.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest the existence of a reservoir of healthy years which can be used to increase the length of the working life expectancy. They underline also the essential role that employment maintenance and retirement policies should have to increase the number of healthy years spent at work, and therefore guarantee a successful ageing for the seniors in Europe.

Demography of French anaesthesiologists. Results of a national survey by the French College of Anaesthesiologists (CFAR) and the French National Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care (SFAR), supported by the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The perception of a looming manpower shortage led the French College of Anaesthesiologists (CFAR) and the French Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care (SFAR), with assistance from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), to conduct a national survey of French anaesthesiologists in order to determine precise physician characteristics data, analyse professional practices and project future service provision.

METHODS

The survey was based on self-administered individual questionnaires, approved by the National Committee on Informatics and Freedom (CNIL). The survey was carried out at the end of 1998 among 1484 hospitals (590 public and 894 private), under the supervision of local referees and regional co-ordinators.

RESULTS

Of 9741 anaesthesiologists' posts, 5694 (58%) are in public hospitals, 3569 (37%) in private practice and 478 (5%) in private hospitals within the National Health Service, i.e. the participant au service public hospitalier (PSPH). Complex validation of the results was necessary to account for the missing responses and multiple sites of activity. The survey identified 8876 specialists practising anaesthesia and intensive care in France at the beginning of 1999, including 216 in French overseas territories. This figure is consistent with that published by the Medical Council (Ordre des Médecins) on 1 January 1999, identifying 8950 anaesthesiologists in France, including 234 in the overseas territories. Annual growth in the anaesthesiologist population has fallen from 9% pre-1989 to 0% in 1999. Male anaesthesiologists outnumber females (35.7%). The average age has risen from 42.8 yr in 1989 to 45.9yr in 1999. The age distribution of anaesthesiologists has become bell shaped, reflecting reduced numbers of younger practitioners. There are currently 14.75 anaesthesiologists per 100 000 people (compared to 12.9 in 1989), a figure slightly above the European average, but there is considerable geographical inequality between the north and south of France, with increased concentrations in large cities that contain university hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Future service provision must take account of falling numbers of new anaesthesiologists and an increase in retirements, but must also include changes in working practices, such as the European Working Time Directive. If anaesthesia manpower shortages are to be avoided, there must be a restructuring of the work-place, a redefinition of tasks and improved management of working time.

[Anesthesiologists in France. First results of the national survey conducted in 1999 by the French College of Anesthesiologist, The French National Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care with the scientific support of the National Institute for Demographic Studies]

OBJECTIVES

Fears related to the future of anaesthesia manpower in France have led the French College of Anaesthesiologists (Cfar) and the French Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care (Sfar), in scientific partnership with the National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined), to set-up a national survey among French anaesthetists (MAR) practicing in France, to describe their demographic evolution and to analyse their professional activities.

METHODS

The survey was based on a personal questionnaire, filled by each individual, approved by the National Commission on Informatics and Freedoms (CNIL). The survey was conducted in November 1998, in the 1484 hospitals, public (590) and private (894) where anaesthetics are performed, under the control of local and regional referents.

RESULTS

The anaesthesiologists positions count gave a total of 9741 positions shared between 5694 in public practice (58%), 3569 in private practice (37%) and 478 in private hospitals taking part to the national health service-PSPH (5%). The evaluation of the number of anaesthesiologists from the number of positions has made necessary a methodology of rectification of the survey to take in account the lack of response and the multiple sites of activity. The survey allows an evaluation of around 8876 physicians practising anaesthesia and intensive care in France at the beginning of 1999, among them 216 overseas. This census is in concordance with the count made by the Medical Council--Ordre des médecins--which published a number of 8716 anaesthesiologists in France, and 234 overseas, at the 1st January 1999, corresponding to a total of 8950. The annual demographic growth has felt from 9% per year, before 1989, to reach the level zero, in 1999. The masculinisation of the speciality is growing with a proportion of 35.7% of females, as well as ageing, the overage of age increasing from 42.8 in 1989 to 45.9 years in 1999. The pyramid of ages does not correspond to a growing population but to ageing people due to a decrease of the youngest classes. The medical density of 14.75 anaesthesiologists for 100,000 inhabitants in 1999, compared to 12.9 in 1989, is slightly above the European average, but the geographic distribution is very unequal between north and south, the large cities, centre of a university hospital, and the smaller one even if a reduction of differences is observed. The study and the analysis of professional activities bring important data to take in account side of demographic evolution.

CONCLUSION

The demographic evolution must integrate non-only the reduction of the entries in the speciality, of the retirements, but also the sociological evolutions linked to the working time reduction. The solutions face to the promised shortcut of manpower consist of a reorganisation of the structures, a new definition of tasks and managements, without the possibility to avoid and adjustment of the anaesthesiologists population.

Transplantation of gene-modified human bone marrow stromal cells into mouse-human bone chimeras

Transplantation of BM stromal cells engineered to secrete therapeutic factors could represent a treatment for a large array of hematologic disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility of human BM stromal cell precursors to retroviral gene transfer, then the ability of those to be transplanted in vivo. We have transduced a recombinant retrovirus encoding the mouse CD2 antigen into STRO-1+ cells selected from adult and fetal BM. Gene-modified stromal cells were injected intravenously into NOD-SCID mice engrafted previously with pieces of human fetal hematopoietic bone. Using nested PCR, transgenic human cells were detected both in the marrow of human bone grafts and in the BM, liver, and spleen of host mice 7 weeks after grafting. These data indicate that BM stromal progenitor cells are targets for retrovirus-mediated gene transfer and can home to hematopoietic tissues on engraftment through the bloodstream of nonconditioned hosts.

Targeted transfection of the IL-3 gene into primary human hematopoietic progenitor cells through the c-kit receptor

We recently showed that an antibody-mediated gene transfer procedure termed antifection can be used for targeted gene delivery into lymphoid cells in vitro and in vivo. We here report that antifection also is effective for targeted gene transfer to immature hematopoietic cells. A human IL3-expressing plasmid was chemically linked to an anti-human CD117 antibody. Delivery of the IL3 plasmid into IL-3-dependent myeloid TF-1 cells (bearing the CD117 antigen) was specific and resulted in the transient proliferation of the targeted cells in the absence of exogenous IL-3. Transfection of primary human CD34+ hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells led to transient production of IL-3 and transient proliferation of the target cells. Interestingly, by using a semisolid progenitor cell assay, we found that transfected primary CD34+ cells were able to generate normal numbers of cell colonies in the absence of exogenous IL-3. Polymerase chain reaction analysis confirmed the presence and expression of the IL-3 transgene in the progenitor-derived colonies. In conclusion, our data show that CD117 is a suitable cell surface target to specifically transfer gene by antifection into primary CD34+ cells and that delivery of IL-3 gene in these cells resulted in the expression of a functional IL-3 able to support cell growth in absence of exogenous cytokine. Thus, antifection may provide new therapeutic modality relying on the transient production of appropriate growth factors acting via autocrine and/or paracrine mechanisms.

Contribution of AIDS to the general mortality in Central Africa: evidence from a morgue-based study in Brazzaville, Congo

OBJECTIVE

To accurately measure AIDS-related mortality relative to other causes and its impact on life expectancy in Brazzaville, Congo.

DESIGN

Investigation of all deaths during a 1-month period in Brazzaville.

METHODS

From 10 July to 9 August 1996, all bodies handled by Brazzaville's three morgues were examined by a physician. Relatives were interviewed on the circumstances of death, while additional clinical data were gathered from hospital files. Blood samples were systematically drawn from the bodies in two of the three morgues and tested for HIV antibodies.

RESULTS

Amongst the 756 bodies examined at the three morgues, 149 (19.7%) AIDS cases were identified. HIV-1 prevalence was 26.2% (38 out of 145) amongst the subjects in the two morgues where HIV serology was systematically performed. AIDS was the leading cause of death in adults (age > or = 15 years), with 25.1% (122 out of 487) of the adults diagnosed with AIDS. The proportion of adult female AIDS cases was significantly higher than the proportion of male cases (30.2 versus 21.0%; P < 0.05). Moreover, female AIDS cases were significantly younger than male cases (median age, 32 versus 42 years; P < 0.00001). Overall AIDS mortality rate amongst adults was 2.8 per 1000 for men and 3.2 per 1000 for women. The impact of AIDS on life expectancy at birth is 4.3 years for women and 3.3 years for men.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides a direct measure of AIDS contribution to mortality relative to other causes, using a rapid, low cost, reliable and replicable method. Clearly, the impact of AIDS is strongest on female life expectancy.

Transplantation of stromal cells transduced with the human IL3 gene to stimulate hematopoiesis in human fetal bone grafts in non-obese, diabetic-severe combined immunodeficiency mice

The non-obese diabetic-severe combined immunodeficiency (NOD-SCID) mouse is a convenient host for human hematopoietic tissues and cells. Human fetal bone fragments engrafted subcutaneously in NOD-SCID mice sustain human hematopoiesis for several months. MS5 murine bone marrow stromal cells were transfected by electroporation with a plasmid containing the human interleukin-3 gene. As expected, stably transfected hu-IL3-MS5 cells supported human hematopoiesis in vitro more efficiently than MS5 cells. hu-IL3-MS5 cells were then injected intravenously into hu-NOD-SCID mice to test their ability to home to the mouse and/or human bone marrow, and to evaluate the role of hu-IL3 secretion on human hematopoiesis in vivo. hu-IL3 was detected in the mouse serum for up to an observation time of 8 weeks. hu-IL3-MS5 cells engrafted the bone marrow, spleen, liver and lungs of the mice but also the human bone graft. The presence of hu-IL3-MS5 cells in the human bone significantly stimulated local human hematopoiesis. This setting could be used to model the bone marrow homing of intravenously injected stromal cells or stromal cell precursors. The same experimental principle could also be applied in a therapeutic perspective to malignant human bone marrow hematopoiesis.

Functional studies of maturing myeloid cells during ex vivo expansion for treatment of aplasia: feasibility of ex vivo expansion from cryopreserved bone marrow cell samples

Ex vivo expanded CD34+ progenitor cells from fresh or cryopreserved primate bone marrow, induced to granulocytic differentiation with growth factors, were investigated to determine whether myeloid cells produced in liquid cultures have the normal biologic functions needed for the treatment of patients with neutropenia following high-dose chemotherapy or therapeutic or accidental radiation exposure. Human and simian (baboons or macaques) CD34+ cells were cultured with granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), stem cell factor (SCF), interleukin-1 (IL-1), IL-3, and IL-6, and assessed at 14 days of culture for their capacity to respond to different functional tests. Immunostaining revealed that human ex vivo expanded cells contained myeloperoxydase (MPO, 82% +/- 8%) and lactoferrin (LF, 30% +/- 6%) in their granules. Maturation of cultured cells was associated with stimulated chemotactic responsiveness and respiratory burst activity (superoxide anion and hydrogen peroxide production) in expansions from human, baboon, and macaque CD34+ progenitor cells. Mature cells obtained from ex vivo expansion of selected cryopreserved human bone marrow CD34+ cells presented reduced but significant functional activities (chemotactic responsiveness and hydrogen peroxide production) when compared with human peripheral blood neutrophils. The validation of nonhuman primate ex vivo expansion systems may permit their use as models of irradiation. The feasibility of ex vivo expansion from cryopreserved bone marrow cell samples may offer considerable opportunity for banking bone marrow for autologous transfusion.

Characterization of prosomes in human lymphocyte subpopulations and their presence as surface antigens

Prosomes, also called "multicatalytic proteinase" (MCP) or "proteasomes," are a new type of ubiquitous RNP particle present in some archeobacteria and in all eukaryotic cells tested from yeast to human. They were discovered as subcomplexes of untranslated messenger-ribonucleoproteins (mRNP) and later found to have a MCP activity putatively involved in antigen processing. Being composed of variable sets of characteristic proteins and associating small RNAs (pRNA), families of individual "mosaic" prosome particles seem to characterize the differentiation type and physiological state of individual cells and tissues. Here, prosomes from human lymphocytes, isolated and characterized biochemically and by Western blot analysis, were found to differ in their subunit composition compared to other human prosomes. Surprisingly, prosomal antigens were discovered at the outer surface of blood cells monitored by flow cytometry with monoclonal antibodies to individual prosomal proteins. It was observed that human T and B lymphocytes have variable and characteristic prosomal antigens at their surface according to their CD classification. Interestingly, the lymphocyte subpopulations most strongly labeled by the anti-p25K and anti-p27K mAbs were the NK and B cells.

How reporting delay, duration of follow-up and number of cases affect the estimates of the incubation time of transfusion-associated AIDS cases

The authors discuss the impact of reporting delay, duration of follow-up, and number of cases in a sample on estimates of the incubation time of transfusion-associated AIDS cases. "This article comes to the conclusion that the accuracy of the incubation time estimate would depend on the sample size rather than on the duration of follow-up." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Incubation time for AIDS from French transfusion-associated cases

Although incubation time is a key parameter of the epidemiology of AIDS, statistical estimates based on transfusion-associated AIDS cases have, up to now, used only the single dataset provided by the AIDS program of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta. Using a new dataset provided by the Direction Générale de la Santé (DGS), of the French Ministry of Health1, we estimate the mean incubation time for AIDS (median in brackets) to be 5.3 years (5.3 years) with a 90% confidence interval ranging from 4.4 to 8.9 years (4.4 to 8.8 years), when a Weibull distribution is postulated for incubation time. The previously encountered problem of very large confidence intervals (range larger than 100 years), is not observed, indicating that an accurate estimate for mean incubation time will be obtainable in the near future.