4CMenB Vaccination to Prevent Meningococcal B Disease in Vietnam: Expert Review and Opinion

An advisory board meeting was held with experts in Vietnam (Hanoi, August 2022), to review the evidence on invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) epidemiology, clinical management, and meningococcal vaccines to reach a consensus on recommendations for meningococcal vaccination in Vietnam. IMD is a severe disease, with the highest burden in infants and children. IMD presents as meningitis and/or meningococcemia and can progress extremely rapidly. Almost 90% of deaths in children occur within the first 24 h, and disabling sequelae (e.g., limb amputations and neurological damage) occur in up to 20% of survivors. IMD patients are often hospitalized late, due to mild and nonspecific early symptoms and misdiagnosis. Difficulties related to diagnosis and antibiotic misuse mean that the number of reported IMD cases in Vietnam is likely to be underestimated. Serogroup B IMD is predominant in many regions of the world, including Vietnam, where 82% of IMD cases were due to serogroup B (surveillance data from 2012 to 2021). Four component meningococcal B vaccine (4CMenB) is used in many countries (and is part of the pediatric National Immunization Program in 13 countries), with infant vaccination starting from two months of age, and a 2 + 1 dosing schedule. Experts recommend 4CMenB vaccination as soon as possible in Vietnam, starting from two months of age, with a 2 + 1 dosing schedule, and at least completing one dose before 6 months of age.

Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources

Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Most national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. Here, we parameterized an age-structured non-seasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10% to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when comparing to vaccination strategies focused on a particular time of year. When targeting a single age-group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse however was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed lower mean mortality and lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

INTRODUCTION

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

METHODS

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

RESULTS

During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fitted the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. We fitted the model for individual (sub)types of influenza as well as all combined influenza throughout northern, central, and southern Vietnam. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 64-179 days) in peak transmission timing, with peaks occurring at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 32-57 days). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely on anticipation of regularly occurring outbreaks.

The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) differs in its spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam with the highest incidence seen during the summer months in the northern provinces. AES has multiple aetiologies, and the cause remains unknown in many cases. While vector-borne disease such as Japanese encephalitis and dengue virus and non-vector-borne diseases such as influenza and enterovirus show evidence of seasonality, associations with climate variables and the spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam differs between these. The aim of this study was therefore to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of, and risk factors for AES in Vietnam to help hypothesise the aetiology.

METHODS

The number of monthly cases per province for AES, meningitis and diseases including dengue fever; influenza-like-illness (ILI); hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); and Streptococcus suis were obtained from the General Department for Preventive Medicine (GDPM) from 1998-2016. Covariates including climate, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, the number of pigs, socio-demographics, JEV vaccination coverage and the number of hospitals were also collected. Spatio-temporal multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial Bayesian models with an outcome of the number of cases of AES, a combination of the covariates and harmonic terms to determine the magnitude of seasonality were developed.

RESULTS

The national monthly incidence of AES declined by 63.3% over the study period. However, incidence increased in some provinces, particularly in the Northwest region. In northern Vietnam, the incidence peaked in the summer months in contrast to the southern provinces where incidence remained relatively constant throughout the year. The incidence of meningitis, ILI and S. suis infection; temperature, relative humidity with no lag, NDVI at a lag of one month, and the number of pigs per 100,000 population were positively associated with the number of cases of AES in all models in which these covariates were included.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive correlation of AES with temperature and humidity suggest that a number of cases may be due to vector-borne diseases, suggesting a need to focus on vaccination campaigns. However, further surveillance and research are recommended to investigate other possible aetiologies such as S. suis or Orientia tsutsugamushi.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta Variants during Large Nationwide Outbreak of COVID-19, Vietnam, 2021

We analyzed 1,303 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences from Vietnam, and found the Alpha and Delta variants were responsible for a large nationwide outbreak of COVID-19 in 2021. The Delta variant was confined to the AY.57 lineage and caused >1.7 million infections and >32,000 deaths. Viral transmission was strongly affected by nonpharmaceutical interventions.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

Background

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics remains elusive. In this study, we aimed to characterize the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam.

Methods

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodicities in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodicities to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

Findings

During ten years of community surveillance, 66,799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI: 8.8%-9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC = 183) compared to all annual covariates (ΔAIC = 263). Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent along in time or across influenza (sub)types.

Interpretation

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Seroprotection against tetanus in southern Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Ongoing tetanus cases and sporadic outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases associated with routine vaccination programmes remain problems in many low and middle-income countries, including Vietnam. With no human-to-human transmission or natural immunity, tetanus antibody levels indicate both individual risk of tetanus and gaps in vaccination programmes.

METHODS

To investigate gaps in immunity to tetanus in Vietnam, a country with a historically high level of tetanus vaccination coverage, tetanus antibodies were measure by ELISA from samples selected from a long-term serum bank, established for the purposes of general-population seroepidemiological investigations in southern Vietnam. Samples were selected from 10 provinces, focussing on age-groups targeted by national vaccination programmes for infants and pregnant women (Expanded Programme on Immunization, EPI, and Maternal and Neonatal Tetanus, MNT).

RESULTS

Antibodies were measured from a total of 3864 samples. Highest tetanus antibody concentrations occurred in children under 4 years old, over 90 % of whom had protective levels. Approximately 70 % of children aged 7-12 years had protective antibody concentrations although there was variation among provinces. For infants and children, there were no significant differences in tetanus protection between males and females, but for adults aged 20-35 years, in five of the ten provinces surveyed, protection against tetanus was higher in females (p < 0.05) who are eligible for booster doses under the MNT programme. In seven of ten provinces, antibody concentrations were inversely related to age (p < 0.01) and protection of older individuals was generally low.

CONCLUSION

Widespread immunity to tetanus toxoid is seen in infants and young children consistent with the high coverage rates reported for diptheria tetanus toxoid and pertussis (DTP) in Vietnam. However, the lower antibody concentrations seen in older children and men suggest reduced immunity to tetanus in populations not targeted by EPI and MNT programmes.

Spatial analysis of human and livestock anthrax in Dien Bien province, Vietnam (2010-2019) and the significance of anthrax vaccination in livestock

Anthrax is a serious zoonosis caused by Bacillus anthracis, which primarily affects wild herbivorous animals with spillover into humans. The disease occurs nearly worldwide but is poorly reported in Southeast Asian countries. In Vietnam, anthrax is underreported, and little is known about its temporal and spatial distributions. This paper examines the spatio-temporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of human and livestock anthrax from Dien Bien province, Vietnam from 2010 to 2019. We also aim to define the role of livestock vaccination in reducing human cases. Historical anthrax data were collected by local human and animal health sectors in the province. Spatial rate smoothing and spatial clustering analysis, using Local Moran's I in GeoDa and space-time scan statistic in SaTScan, were employed to address these objectives. We found temporal and spatial overlap of anthrax incidence in humans and livestock with hotspots of human anthrax in the east. We identified three significant space-time clusters of human anthrax persisting from 2010 to 2014 in the east and southeast, each with high relative risk. Most of the human cases were male (69%), aged 15-59 years (80%), involved in processing, slaughtering, or eating meat of sick or dead livestock (96.9%) but environmental and unknown exposure were reported. Animal reports were limited compared to humans and at coarser spatial scale, but in areas with human case clusters. In years when livestock vaccination was high (>~25%), human incidence was reduced, with the opposite effect when vaccine rates dropped. This indicates livestock vaccination campaigns reduce anthrax burden in both humans and livestock in Vietnam, though livestock surveillance needs immediate improvement. These findings suggest further investigation and measures to strengthen the surveillance of human and animal anthrax for other provinces of Vietnam, as well as in other countries with similar disease context.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Anthrax is a priority zoonosis for control in Vietnam. The geographic distribution of anthrax remains to be defined, challenging our ability to target areas for control. We analyzed human anthrax cases in Vietnam to obtain anthrax incidence at the national and provincial level. Nationally, the trendline for cases remained at ≈61 cases/year throughout the 26 years of available data, indicating control efforts are not effectively reducing disease burden over time. Most anthrax cases occurred in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous regions, and the provinces of Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, and Son La experienced some of the highest incidence rates. Based on spatial Bayes smoothed maps, every region of Vietnam experienced human anthrax cases during the study period. Clarifying the distribution of anthrax in Vietnam will enable us to better identify risk areas for improved surveillance, rapid clinical care, and livestock vaccination campaigns.

Climate change and health in Southeast Asia - defining research priorities and the role of the Wellcome Trust Africa Asia Programmes

This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.

Climate change and health in Southeast Asia - defining research priorities and the role of the Wellcome Trust Africa Asia Programmes

This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.

Opposing Effects of Prior Infection versus Prior Vaccination on Vaccine Immunogenicity against Influenza A(H3N2) Viruses

Prior vaccination can alternately enhance or attenuate influenza vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness. Analogously, we found that vaccine immunogenicity was enhanced by prior A(H3N2) virus infection among participants of the Ha Nam Cohort, Viet Nam, but was attenuated by prior vaccination among Australian Health Care Workers (HCWs) vaccinated in the same year. Here, we combined these studies to directly compare antibody titers against 35 A(H3N2) viruses spanning 1968–2018. Participants received licensed inactivated vaccines containing A/HongKong/4801/2014 (H3N2). The analysis was limited to participants aged 18–65 Y, and compared those exposed to A(H3N2) viruses circulating since 2009 by infection (Ha Nam) or vaccination (HCWs) to a reference group who had no recent A(H3N2) infection or vaccination (Ha Nam). Antibody responses were compared by fitting titer/titer-rise landscapes across strains, and by estimating titer ratios to the reference group of 2009–2018 viruses. Pre-vaccination, titers were lowest against 2009–2014 viruses among the reference (no recent exposure) group. Post-vaccination, titers were, on average, two-fold higher among participants with prior infection and two-fold lower among participants with 3–5 prior vaccinations compared to the reference group. Titer rise was negligible among participants with 3–5 prior vaccinations, poor among participants with 1–2 prior vaccinations, and equivalent or better among those with prior infection compared to the reference group. The enhancing effect of prior infection versus the incrementally attenuating effect of prior vaccinations suggests that these exposures may alternately promote and constrain the generation of memory that can be recalled by a new vaccine strain.

Influenza virus infection history shapes antibody responses to influenza vaccination

Studies of successive vaccination suggest that immunological memory against past influenza viruses may limit responses to vaccines containing current strains. The impact of memory induced by prior infection is rarely considered and is difficult to ascertain, because infections are often subclinical. This study investigated influenza vaccination among adults from the Ha Nam cohort (Vietnam), who were purposefully selected to include 72 with and 28 without documented influenza A(H3N2) infection during the preceding 9 years (Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry 12621000110886). The primary outcome was the effect of prior influenza A(H3N2) infection on hemagglutinin-inhibiting antibody responses induced by a locally available influenza vaccine administered in November 2016. Baseline and postvaccination sera were titrated against 40 influenza A(H3N2) strains spanning 1968-2018. At each time point (baseline, day 14 and day 280), geometric mean antibody titers against 2008-2018 strains were higher among participants with recent infection (34 (29-40), 187 (154-227) and 86 (72-103)) than among participants without recent infection (19 (17-22), 91 (64-130) and 38 (30-49)). On days 14 and 280, mean titer rises against 2014-2018 strains were 6.1-fold (5.0- to 7.4-fold) and 2.6-fold (2.2- to 3.1-fold) for participants with recent infection versus 4.8-fold (3.5- to 6.7-fold) and 1.9-fold (1.5- to 2.3-fold) for those without. One of 72 vaccinees with recent infection versus 4 of 28 without developed symptomatic A(H3N2) infection in the season after vaccination (P = 0.021). The range of A(H3N2) viruses recognized by vaccine-induced antibodies was associated with the prior infection strain. These results suggest that recall of immunological memory induced by prior infection enhances antibody responses to inactivated influenza vaccine and is important to attain protective antibody titers.

Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus

The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% - 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% - 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.

Climate change and health in Southeast Asia - defining research priorities and the role of the Wellcome Trust Africa Asia Programmes

This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.

The First 100 Days of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Control in Vietnam

Background

One hundred days after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Vietnam on 23 January, 270 cases were confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used by the government and their relationship with imported and domestically acquired case numbers, with the aim of identifying the measures associated with successful SARS-CoV-2 control.

Methods

Clinical and demographic data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of government control measures, including numbers of tests and quarantined individuals, were analyzed. Apple and Google mobility data provided proxies for population movement. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers.

Results

A national lockdown was implemented between 1 and 22 April. Around 200 000 people were quarantined and 266 122 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. In total, 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections remained asymptomatic for the duration of infection. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred presymptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% CI, .·37–2.·36). No community transmission has been detected since 15 April.

Conclusions

Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of mass communication, meticulous contact tracing with strict quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic and imported cases, and evidence for substantial presymptomatic transmission.

The First 100 Days of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Control in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

One hundred days after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Vietnam on 23 January, 270 cases were confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used by the government and their relationship with imported and domestically acquired case numbers, with the aim of identifying the measures associated with successful SARS-CoV-2 control.

METHODS

Clinical and demographic data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of government control measures, including numbers of tests and quarantined individuals, were analyzed. Apple and Google mobility data provided proxies for population movement. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers.

RESULTS

A national lockdown was implemented between 1 and 22 April. Around 200 000 people were quarantined and 266 122 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. In total, 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections remained asymptomatic for the duration of infection. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred presymptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% CI, .·37-2.·36). No community transmission has been detected since 15 April.

CONCLUSIONS

Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of mass communication, meticulous contact tracing with strict quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic and imported cases, and evidence for substantial presymptomatic transmission.

Transmission of SARS-CoV 2 During Long-Haul Flight

To assess the role of in-flight transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we investigated a cluster of cases among passengers on a 10-hour commercial flight. Affected persons were passengers, crew, and their close contacts. We traced 217 passengers and crew to their final destinations and interviewed, tested, and quarantined them. Among the 16 persons in whom SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected, 12 (75%) were passengers seated in business class along with the only symptomatic person (attack rate 62%). Seating proximity was strongly associated with increased infection risk (risk ratio 7.3, 95% CI 1.2-46.2). We found no strong evidence supporting alternative transmission scenarios. In-flight transmission that probably originated from 1 symptomatic passenger caused a large cluster of cases during a long flight. Guidelines for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection among air passengers should consider individual passengers' risk for infection, the number of passengers traveling, and flight duration.

Burden of disease and economic impact of human Streptococcus suis infection in Viet Nam

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus suis is a zoonotic disease mainly affecting men of working age and can result in death or long-term sequelae, including severe hearing loss and vestibular dysfunction. We aimed to quantify the burden of disease and economic impact of this infection in Viet Nam.

METHODS

The annual disease incidence for the period 2011-2014 was estimated based on surveillance data using a multiple imputation approach. We calculated disease burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic costs using an incidence-based approach from a patient's perspective and including direct and indirect impacts of S. suis infection and its long-term sequelae.

RESULTS

The estimated annual incidence rate was 0.318, 0.324, 0.255 and 0.249 cases per 100 000 population in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. The corresponding DALYs lost were 1832, 1866, 1467 and 1437. The mean direct cost per episode was US$1635 (95% confidence interval 1352-1923). The annual direct cost was US$370 000-500 000 and the indirect cost was US$2.27-2.88 million in this time period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a large disease burden and high economic impact of S. suis infection and provides important data for disease monitoring and control.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 but not A(H3N2) virus infection induces durable sero-protection: results from the Ha Nam Cohort

Background

The extent to which influenza recurrence depends upon waning immunity from prior infection is undefined. We used antibody titers of Ha-Nam cohort participants to estimate protection curves and decay trajectories.

Methods

Households (270) participated in influenza-like–illness (ILI) surveillance and provided blood at intervals spanning laboratory–confirmed virus transmission. Sera were tested in hemagglutination inhibition assay. Infection was defined as influenza virus-positive ILI and/or seroconversion. Median protective titers were estimated using scaled-logistic regression to model pretransmission titer against infection status in that season, limiting analysis to households with infection(s). Titers were modelled against month since infection using mixed-effects linear regression to estimate decay and when titers fell below protection thresholds.

Results

From December 2008–2012, 295 and 314 participants were infected with H1N1pdm09-like and A/Perth/16/09-like (H3N2Pe09) viruses, respectively. The proportion protected rose more steeply with titer for H1N1pdm09 than for H3N2Pe09, and estimated 50% protection titers were 19.6 and 37.3, respectively. Postinfection titers started higher against H3N2Pe09 but decayed more steeply than against H1N1pdm09. Seroprotection was estimated to be sustained against H1N1pdm09 but to wane by 8-months for H3N2Pe09.

Conclusions

Estimates indicate that infection induces durable seroprotection against H1N1pdm09 but not H3N2Pe09, which could in part account for the younger age of A(H1N1) versus A(H3N2) cases.

Combating the COVID-19 Epidemic: Experiences from Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading fast globally. Vietnam’s strict containment measures have significantly reduced the spread of the epidemic in the country. This was achieved through the use of emergency control measures in the epidemic areas and integration of resources from multiple sectors including health, mass media, transportation, education, public affairs, and defense. This paper reviews and shares specific measures for successful prevention and control of COVID-19 in Vietnam, which could provide useful learning for other countries.

Does sunlight drive seasonality of TB in Vietnam? A retrospective environmental ecological study of tuberculosis seasonality in Vietnam from 2010 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health burden, with an estimated quarter of the world's population being infected. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "End TB Strategy" in 2014 emphasising knowing the epidemic. WHO ranks Vietnam 12th in the world of high burden countries. TB spatial and temporal patterns have been observed globally with evidence of Vitamin D playing a role in seasonality. We explored the presence of temporal and spatial clustering of TB in Vietnam and their determinants to aid public health measures.

METHODS

Data were collected by the National TB program of Vietnam from 2010 to 2015 and linked to the following datasets: socio-demographic characteristics; climatic variables; influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence; geospatial data. The TB dataset was aggregated by province and quarter. Descriptive time series analyses using LOESS regression were completed per province to determine seasonality and trend. Harmonic regression was used to determine the amplitude of seasonality by province. A mixed-effect linear model was used with province and year as random effects and all other variables as fixed effects.

RESULTS

There were 610,676 cases of TB notified between 2010 and 2015 in Vietnam. Heat maps of TB incidence per quarter per province showed substantial temporal and geospatial variation. Time series analysis demonstrated seasonality throughout the country, with peaks in spring/summer and troughs in autumn/winter. Incidence was consistently higher in the south, the three provinces with the highest incidence per 100,000 population were Tay Ninh, An Giang and Ho Chi Minh City. However, relative seasonal amplitude was more pronounced in the north. Mixed-effect linear model confirmed that TB incidence was associated with time and latitude. Of the demographic, socio-economic and health related variables, population density, percentage of those under 15 years of age, and HIV infection prevalence per province were associated with TB incidence. Of the climate variables, absolute humidity, average temperature and sunlight were associated with TB incidence.

CONCLUSION

Preventative public health measures should be focused in the south of Viet Nam where incidence is highest. Vitamin D is unlikely to be a strong driver of seasonality but supplementation may play a role in a package of interventions.

Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning

Background

Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperature-dengue associations during different dengue outbreak periods, estimate the dengue cases attributable to temperature, and ascertain if there was an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methodology/Principal findings

Dengue outbreaks were assigned to one of three categories (small, medium and large) based on the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of distribution of weekly dengue cases during 2008–2016. Using a generalised linear regression model with a negative binomial link that controlled for temporal trends, temperature variation, rainfall and population size over time, we examined and compared associations between weekly average temperature and weekly dengue incidence for different outbreak categories. The same model using weeks with or without heatwaves as binary variables was applied to examine the potential effects of extreme heatwaves, defined as seven or more days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of daily temperature distribution during the study period. This study included 55,801 dengue cases, with an average of 119 (range: 0 to 1454) cases per week. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and dengue risk was non-linear and differed with dengue category. After considering the delayed effects of temperature (one week lag), we estimated that 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks were attributable to temperature. We found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks (around 14 weeks later) than small and medium outbreaks (4 to 9 weeks later). Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks (i.e., small, moderate and large outbreaks combined) in heatwave years had higher weekly number of dengue cases (p<0.05). Findings were robust under different sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

The short-term association between temperature and dengue risk varied by the level of outbreaks and temperature seems more likely affect large outbreaks. Moreover, heatwaves may delay the timing and increase the magnitude of dengue outbreaks.

Dengue fever is one of the most common mosquito-borne viral diseases. Weather extremes such as El Niño event and extreme hot summer can affect dengue incidence rate and dengue outbreaks. More frequent, more intensive and longer lasting heatwaves in the 21st century is anticipated because of global warming, making it necessary to investigate the association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks. In this study, we estimated 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident dengue cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks attributable to temperature in Hanoi, Vietnam. We also found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks than small and medium outbreaks. Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks in heatwave years had higher number of dengue cases. Heatwave weather may represent an emerging risk factor or predicator of dengue outbreaks in tropical regions. Future dengue prediction models incorporating heatwaves may help increase the accuracy of predictability.

Plans for Nationwide Serosurveillance Network in Vietnam

In recent years, serosurveillance has gained momentum as a way of determining disease transmission and immunity in populations, particularly with respect to vaccine-preventable diseases. At the end of 2017, the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology held a meeting in Vietnam with national policy makers, researchers, and international experts to discuss current seroepidemiologic projects in Vietnam and future needs and plans for nationwide serosurveillance. This report summarizes the meeting and the plans that were discussed to set up nationwide serosurveillance in Vietnam.

Rapid Disappearance of Poliovirus Type 2 (PV2) Immunity in Young Children Following Withdrawal of Oral PV2-Containing Vaccine in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Due to global shortage of inactivated poliovirus vaccine and withdrawal of oral vaccine containing poliovirus type 2 (PV2), a PV2-containing vaccine was not used in Vietnam May 2016 to October 2018. We assessed the population immunity gap to PV2.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey in children aged 1-18 months was carried out in January 2018. One blood sample per child was analyzed for presence of poliovirus neutralizing antibodies. In children with detectable anti-PV2 antibodies, a second sample was analyzed 4 months later to distinguish between passive (maternally derived) and active (induced by secondary transmission or vaccination) immunity.

RESULTS

Sera were obtained from 1106/1110 children. Seroprevalence of PV2 antibodies was 87/368 (23.6%) at age 1-7 months, 27/471 (5.7%) at 8-15 months, and 19/267 (7.1%) at 16-18 months. Seroprevalence declined with age in the 1-7 months group; in the 8-18 months group there was no significant change with age. Four months later, 11/87 (14%), 9/27 (32%), and 12/19 (37%) remained seropositive in 1-7, 8-15, and 16-18 months age groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We found declining immunity to PV2, suggesting Vietnam is at risk for an outbreak of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus following virus importation or new emergence.

Epidemiology and etiology of influenza-like-illness in households in Vietnam; it's not all about the kids!

BACKGROUND

Household studies provide opportunities to understand influenza-like-illness (ILI) transmission, but data from (sub)tropical developing countries are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the viral etiology and epidemiology of ILI in households.

STUDY DESIGN

ILI was detected by active case finding amongst a cohort of 263 northern Vietnam households between 2008 and 2013. Health workers collected nose and throat swabs for virus detection by multiplex real-time RT-PCR.

RESULTS

ILI was detected at least once in 219 (23.7%) of 945 household members. 271 (62.3%) of 435 nose/throat swabs were positive for at least one of the 15 viruses tested. Six viruses predominated amongst positive swabs: Rhinovirus (28%), Influenza virus (17%), Coronavirus (8%), Enterovirus (5%), Respiratory syncytial virus (3%), Metapneumovirus virus (2.5%) and Parainfluenza virus 3 (1.8%). There was no clear seasonality, but 78% of episodes occurred in Winter/Spring for Influenza compared to 32% for Rhinovirus. Participants, on average, suffered 0.49 ILI, and 0.29 virus-positive ILI episodes, with no significant effects of gender, age, or household size. In contrast to US and Australian community studies, the frequency of ILI decreased as the number of household members aged below 5 years increased (p=0.006).

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate the need for tailored ILI control strategies, and for better understanding of how local childcare practices and seasonality may influence transmission and the role of children.

Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI.

METHODS

We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project.

RESULTS

The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power <17.6), whereas ILI seasonality is strongest in provinces with pronounced AH seasonality (power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings.

Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam

To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007–2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%–35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%–71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%–96%) for intermediate (1∶20–1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.

Influenza causes an estimated three to five million severe illnesses worldwide each year. In order to guide control policies it is important to determine the key risk factors for transmission. This is often done by studying transmission in households but in the past, analysis of such data has suffered from important simplifying assumptions (for example not being able to account for the effect of biological markers of protection like pre-season antibody titers). We have developed new statistical methods that address these limitations and applied them to a large household cohort study conducted in 2007–2010 in Vietnam. By comparing a large range of model variants, we have obtained unique insights into the patterns and determinants of transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza in South East Asia. This includes estimating the proportion of cases attributed to household transmission, the average household transmission probability, the protection afforded by pre-season HI titers, and the effect of age on infection risk after correcting for pre-season HI titers.

Investigation of dengue and Japanese encephalitis virus transmission in Hanam, Viet Nam

This study investigated whether a large dengue epidemic that struck Hanoi in 2009 also affected a nearby semirural area. Seroconversion (dengue virus-reactive immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was high during 2009 compared with 2008, but neutralization assays showed that it was caused by both dengue virus and Japanese encephalitis virus infections. The findings highlight the importance of continued Japanese encephalitis virus vaccination and dengue surveillance.

Pandemic H1N1 virus transmission and shedding dynamics in index case households of a prospective Vietnamese cohort

Objectives

Influenza household transmission studies are required to guide prevention strategies but most passively recruit index cases that seek healthcare. We investigated A(H1N1)pdm09 transmission in a household-based cohort during 2009.

Methods

Health-workers visited 270 households weekly, and collected swabs from influenza-like-illness cases. If A(H1N1)pdm09 was RT-PCR-confirmed, all household members had symptoms assessed and swabs collected daily for 10–15 days. Viral RNA was quantified and sequenced and serology performed on pre-pandemic sera.

Results

Index cases were detected in 20 households containing 81 people. 98.5% lacked A(H1N1)pdm09 neutralizing antibodies in pre-pandemic sera. Eleven (18.6%, 95% CI 10.7–30.4%) of 59 contacts were infected. Virus genetic diversity within households was negligible and less than between households. Index and secondary cases were distributed between mothers, daughters and sons, and had similar virus-RNA shedding and symptom dynamics. Fathers were rarely infected. Five secondary cases (45%) had no apparent symptoms and three shed virus before symptoms. Secondary infection was associated with index case wet cough (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.22–1.99).

Conclusions

In this cohort of A(H1N1)pdm09 susceptible persons, virus sequencing was capable of discriminating household from community transmission. Household transmission involved mothers and children but rarely fathers. Asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic shedding was common.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Introduction

Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methods

Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space–time clusters and dispersion of DF.

Results

The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02–1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest.

Conclusions

There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology

Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore typically defined as a 4-fold rise or more. Here, we revisit this widely accepted 70-year old criterion. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo data augmentation model to quantify measurement errors and reconstruct the distribution of latent true serological status in a Vietnamese 3-year serological cohort, in which replicate measurements were available. We estimate that the 1-sided probability of a 2-fold error is 9.3% (95% Credible Interval, CI: 3.3%, 17.6%) when antibody titer is below 10 but is 20.2% (95% CI: 15.9%, 24.0%) otherwise. After correction for measurement errors, we find that the proportion of individuals with 2-fold rises in antibody titers was too large to be explained by measurement errors alone. Estimates of ARs vary greatly depending on whether those individuals are included in the definition of the infected population. A simulation study shows that our method is unbiased. The 4-fold rise case definition is relevant when aiming at a specific diagnostic for individual cases, but the justification is less obvious when the objective is to estimate ARs. In particular, it may lead to large underestimates of ARs. Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs.

Each year, seasonal influenza is responsible for about three to five million severe illnesses and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide. In order to assess the burden of disease and guide control policies, it is important to quantify the proportion of people infected by an influenza virus each year. Since infection usually leaves a “signature” in the blood of infected individuals (namely a rise in antibodies), a standard protocol consists in collecting blood samples in a cohort of subjects and determining the proportion of those who experienced such rise. However, because of inherent measurement errors, only large rises are accounted for in the standard 4-fold rise case definition. Here, we revisit this 70 year old and widely accepted and applied criterion. We present innovative statistical techniques to better capture the impact of measurement errors and improve our interpretation of the data. Our analysis suggests that the number of people infected by an influenza virus each year might be substantially larger than previously thought, with important implications for our understanding of the transmission and evolution of influenza – and the nature of infection.

The epidemiology of interpandemic and pandemic influenza in Vietnam, 2007-2010: the Ha Nam household cohort study I

Prospective community-based studies have provided fundamental insights into the epidemiology of influenza in temperate regions, but few comparable studies have been undertaken in the tropics. The authors conducted prospective influenza surveillance and intermittent seroprevalence surveys in a household-based cohort in Vietnam between December 2007 and April 2010, resulting in 1,793 person-seasons of influenza surveillance. Age- and sex-standardized estimates of the risk of acquiring any influenza infection per season in persons 5 years of age or older were 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.4, 24.7) in season 1, 26.4% (95% confidence interval: 22.6, 30.2) in season 2, and 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.6, 20.4) in season 3. Some individuals experienced multiple episodes of infection with different influenza types/subtypes in the same season (n = 27) or reinfection with the same subtype in different seasons (n = 22). The highest risk of influenza infection was in persons 5-9 years old, in whom the risk of influenza infection per season was 41.8%. Although the highest infection risk was in school-aged children, there were important heterogeneities in the age of infection by subtype and season. These heterogeneities could influence the impact of school closure and childhood vaccination on influenza transmission in tropical areas, such as Vietnam.

Identification of H5N1-specific T-cell responses in a high-risk cohort in vietnam indicates the existence of potential asymptomatic infections

BACKGROUND

Most reported human H5N1 viral infections have been severe and were detected after hospital admission. A case ascertainment bias may therefore exist, with mild cases or asymptomatic infections going undetected. We sought evidence of mild or asymptomatic H5N1 infection by examining H5N1-specific T-cell and antibody responses in a high-risk cohort in Vietnam.

METHODS

Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were tested using interferon-γ enzyme-linked immunospot T assays measuring the response to peptides of influenza H5, H3, and H1 hemagglutinin (HA), N1 and N2 neuraminidase, and the internal proteins of H3N2. Horse erythrocyte hemagglutination inhibition assay was performed to detect antibodies against H5N1.

RESULTS

Twenty-four of 747 individuals demonstrated H5-specific T-cell responses but little or no cross-reactivity with H3 or H1 HA peptides. H5N1 peptide-specific T-cell lines that did not cross-react with H1 or H3 influenza virus HA peptides were generated. Four individuals also had antibodies against H5N1.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of ex vivo H5 HA-specific T-cell responses in a healthy but H5N1-exposed population. Our results indicate that the presence of H5N1-specific T cells could be an additional diagnostic tool for asymptomatic H5N1 infection.

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic.

METHODS

We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans.

RESULTS

In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M).

CONCLUSION

It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes.