1
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Kemink KM, Pressey RL, Adams VM, Olimb SK, Healey AM, Liu B, Frerichs T, Renner R. Quantifying population-level conservation impacts for a perpetual conservation program on private land. J Environ Manage 2023; 345:118748. [PMID: 37666135 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2023] [Revised: 07/21/2023] [Accepted: 08/09/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023]
Abstract
Area-based targets, such as percentages of regions protected, are popular metrics of success in the protection of nature. While easily quantified, these targets can be uninformative about the effectiveness of conservation interventions and should be complemented by program impact evaluations. However, most impact evaluations have examined the effect of protected areas on deforestation. Studies that have extended these evaluations to more dynamic systems or different outcomes are less common, largely due to data availability. In these cases, simulations might prove to be a valuable tool for gaining an understanding of the potential range of program effect sizes. Here, we employ simulations of wetland drainage to estimate the impact of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Small Wetlands Acquisition Program (SWAP) across a ten-year period in terms of wetland area, and breeding waterfowl and brood abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Using our simulation results, we estimate a plausible range of program impact for the SWAP as an avoided loss of between 0.00% and 0.02% of the carrying capacity for broods and breeding waterfowl from 2008-2017. Despite the low programmatic impact that these results suggest, the perpetual nature of SWAP governance provides promising potential for a higher cumulative conservation impact in the long term if future wetland drainage occurs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kaylan M Kemink
- Ducks Unlimited Inc, 2525 River Road, Bismarck 58503, ND, United States; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville 48114, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Robert L Pressey
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville 48114, Queensland, Australia; Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Vanessa M Adams
- School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia.
| | - Sarah K Olimb
- World Wildlife Fund Northern Great Plains Program, 13 S. Wilson Suite 1, Bozeman 59715, MT, United States.
| | - Aidan M Healey
- Ducks Unlimited Inc, 2525 River Road, Bismarck 58503, ND, United States.
| | - Boyan Liu
- Ducks Unlimited Inc, 2525 River Road, Bismarck 58503, ND, United States.
| | - Todd Frerichs
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Western SD WMD Complex, Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge/Wetland Management District, 39650 Sand Lake Drive, Columbia 57433, SD, United States.
| | - Randy Renner
- Ducks Unlimited Inc, 2525 River Road, Bismarck 58503, ND, United States.
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2
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Smallhorn‐West P, Cohen PJ, Phillips M, Jupiter SD, Govan H, Pressey RL. Linking small-scale fisheries co-management to U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. Conserv Biol 2022; 36:e13977. [PMID: 35866368 PMCID: PMC10091792 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2021] [Revised: 07/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Small-scale fisheries account for 90% of global fishers and 40% of the global catch. Effectively managing small-scale fisheries is, therefore, crucial to progressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Co-management and community-based fisheries management are widely considered the most appropriate forms of governance for many small-scale fisheries. We outlined relationships between small-scale fisheries co-management and attainment of the SDGs, including evidence for impacts and gaps in dominant logic. We identified 11 targets across five SDGs to which small-scale fisheries co-management (including community-based fisheries management) can contribute; the theory of change by which these contributions could be achieved; and the strength of evidence for progress toward SDG targets related to various co-management strategies. Our theory of change links the 11 SDG targets by qualifying that progress toward some targets is contingent on others being achieved first. We then reviewed 58 case studies of co-management impacts from the Pacific Islands--a region rich in local marine governance--to evaluate evidence of where, to what degree, and with how much certainty different co-management strategies conferred positive impacts to each SDG target. These strategies included access restrictions, permanent area closures, periodic closures, and gear and species restrictions. Although many studies provide evidence linking multiple co-management strategies to improvements in resource status (SDG 14.4), there was limited evidence of follow-on effects, such as improvements in catch (SDG 2.3, 2.4), livelihoods (SDG 1.2), consumption (SDG 2.1), and nutrition (SDG 2.2). Our findings suggest that leaps of logic and assumptions are prevalent in co-management planning and evaluation. Hence, when evaluating co-management impacts against the SDGs, consideration of ultimate goals is required, otherwise, there is a risk of shortfalls between aspirations and impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Smallhorn‐West
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQueenslandAustralia
- WorldFish, Jalan Batu MaungBayan LepasMalaysia
- Wildlife Conservation SocietyNew York CityNew YorkUSA
| | - Philippa J. Cohen
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQueenslandAustralia
- WorldFish, Jalan Batu MaungBayan LepasMalaysia
- Centre of Marine Socioecology, Institute of Antarctic and Marine ScienceUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTasmaniaAustralia
| | | | | | - Hugh Govan
- University of the South Pacific (USP), School of Law and Social Sciences (SOLASS)SuvaFiji
- Locally Managed Marine Area NetworkSuvaFiji
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQueenslandAustralia
- Faculty of ScienceQueensland University of TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
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3
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Smallhorn‐West PF, Pressey RL. Why does conservation minimize opportunity costs? Conservat Sci and Prac 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12808] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick F. Smallhorn‐West
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Australia
- WorldFish Penang Malaysia
- Wildlife Conservation Society New York New York USA
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Australia
- Faculty of Science Queensland University of Technology Brisbane City Australia
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4
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Pressey RL, Visconti P, McKinnon MC, Gurney GG, Barnes MD, Glew L, Maron M. The mismeasure of conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:808-821. [PMID: 34303527 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.06.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Revised: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity's negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we find that targets for area-based interventions are framed overwhelmingly with measures that fail to inform decision-makers about impact and that risk diverting limited resources away from achieving it. We show that predicting impact in space and time is feasible and can provide the basis for global guidance for jurisdictions to develop targets for conservation impact and shift investment priorities to areas where impact can be most effectively achieved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
| | - Piero Visconti
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Georgina G Gurney
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
| | - Megan D Barnes
- Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy, School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | | | - Martine Maron
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences & Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
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5
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Ribas LGS, Pressey RL, Bini LM. Estimating counterfactuals for evaluation of ecological and conservation impact: an introduction to matching methods. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2021; 96:1186-1204. [PMID: 33682321 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 02/08/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Matching methods encompass non-parametric approaches to estimating counterfactual states through a rigorous selection of control units with similar characteristics to units submitted to an intervention. These methods enable comparisons between treated and control units in a way that facilitates understanding of causal relationships between interventions and outcomes. Matching methods have been used only recently in ecology and conservation biology, where such applications changed the way the field investigates causal questions, for example, in impact-evaluation studies. However, the strengths and limitations of matching methods are not well understood by most ecologists and environmental scientists. Herein, we review state-of-the-art matching methods aiming to help fill this gap in understanding. First, we present relevant theoretical concepts related to matching methods and related subjects such as counterfactual states and causation. Next, we propose guidelines and strategies for the application of matching methods in ecology and conservation biology. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for future applications of matching methods in the environmental sciences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luiz G S Ribas
- Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG), Avenida Esperança s/n, Campus Samambaia, Goiânia, Goiás, CEP 74.690-900, Brazil
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Luis M Bini
- Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG), Avenida Esperança s/n, Campus Samambaia, Goiânia, Goiás, CEP 74.690-900, Brazil
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6
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Butt N, Wenger AS, Lohr C, Woodberry O, Morris K, Pressey RL. Predicting and managing plant invasions on offshore islands. Conservat Sci and Prac 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathalie Butt
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland Saint Lucia Queensland Australia
| | - Amelia S. Wenger
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Cheryl Lohr
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation, and Attractions, Animal Science Program Woodvale Western Australia Australia
| | - Owen Woodberry
- Bayesian Intelligence Pty Ltd Monash University Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Keith Morris
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation, and Attractions, Animal Science Program Woodvale Western Australia Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
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7
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Kemink KM, Adams VM, Pressey RL. Integrating dynamic processes into waterfowl conservation prioritization tools. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kaylan M. Kemink
- Ducks Unlimited Inc. Bismarck ND USA
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies Douglas Qld Australia
| | - Vanessa M. Adams
- Geography and Spatial Sciences School of Technology, Environments and Design University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies Douglas Qld Australia
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8
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Kemink KM, Adams VM, Pressey RL, Walker JA. A synthesis of knowledge about motives for participation in perpetual conservation easements. Conservat Sci and Prac 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kaylan M. Kemink
- Ducks Unlimited Inc. Bismarck North Dakota USA
- College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Douglas QLD Australia
| | - Vanessa M. Adams
- Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Technology, Environments and Design University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Sir George Fisher Research Building Douglas QLD Australia
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9
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Driscoll DA, Garrard GE, Kusmanoff AM, Dovers S, Maron M, Preece N, Pressey RL, Ritchie EG. Consequences of information suppression in ecological and conservation sciences. Conserv Lett 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Don A. Driscoll
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University Geelong Melbourne Burwood Campus Burwood Australia
| | - Georgia E. Garrard
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- ICON Science, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies RMIT University Melbourne Australia
| | - Alexander M. Kusmanoff
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- ICON Science, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies RMIT University Melbourne Australia
| | - Stephen Dovers
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- Fenner School of Environment and Society Australian National University Canberra Australia
| | - Martine Maron
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Australia
| | - Noel Preece
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- College of Science & Engineering, Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science James Cook University Cairns Australia
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods Charles Darwin University Darwin Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Australia
| | - Euan G. Ritchie
- Academic Freedom Working Group Ecological Society of Australia Windsor Australia
- Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University Geelong Melbourne Burwood Campus Burwood Australia
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10
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Smallhorn‐West PF, Stone K, Ceccarelli DM, Malimali S, Halafihi T, Bridge TCL, Pressey RL, Jones GP. Community management yields positive impacts for coastal fisheries resources and biodiversity conservation. Conserv Lett 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick F. Smallhorn‐West
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
- WorldFish Jalan Batu Maung Bayan Lepas Penang Malaysia
| | - Karen Stone
- Vava'u Environmental Protection Association Neiafu Vava'u Tonga
| | - Daniela M. Ceccarelli
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
| | | | | | - Tom C. L. Bridge
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
- Biodiversity and Geosciences Program, Museum of Tropical Queensland Queensland Museum Network Townsville QLD Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
| | - Geoffrey P. Jones
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville QLD Australia
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11
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Smallhorn‐West PF, Sheehan J, Malimali S, Halafihi T, Bridge TCL, Pressey RL, Jones GP. Incentivizing co‐management for impact: mechanisms driving the successful national expansion of Tonga's Special Management Area program. Conserv Lett 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick F. Smallhorn‐West
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
- WorldFish, Jalan Batu Maung Bayan Lepas Penang Malaysia
| | | | | | | | - Tom C. L. Bridge
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
- Biodiversity and Geosciences Program, Museum of Tropical Queensland Queensland Museum Network Townsville Townsville Queensland Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
| | - Geoffrey P. Jones
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
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12
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Sacre E, Weeks R, Bode M, Pressey RL. The relative conservation impact of strategies that prioritize biodiversity representation, threats, and protection costs. Conservat Sci and Prac 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Edmond Sacre
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook University Townsville Australia
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Coastal ResearchSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences Öregrund Sweden
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook University Townsville Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of Technology Brisbane Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook University Townsville Australia
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13
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Affiliation(s)
- Edmond Sacre
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook University Townsville Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesJames Cook University Townsville Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of Technology Brisbane Australia
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14
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Affiliation(s)
- Edmond Sacre
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
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15
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Adams VM, Mills M, Weeks R, Segan DB, Pressey RL, Gurney GG, Groves C, Davis FW, Álvarez-Romero JG. Implementation strategies for systematic conservation planning. Ambio 2019; 48:139-152. [PMID: 29949079 PMCID: PMC6346603 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-018-1067-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2018] [Revised: 05/23/2018] [Accepted: 05/28/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The field of systematic conservation planning has grown substantially, with hundreds of publications in the peer-reviewed literature and numerous applications to regional conservation planning globally. However, the extent to which systematic conservation plans have influenced management is unclear. This paper analyses factors that facilitate the transition from assessment to implementation in conservation planning, in order to help integrate assessment and implementation into a seamless process. We propose a framework for designing implementation strategies, taking into account three critical planning aspects: processes, inputs, and context. Our review identified sixteen processes, which we broadly grouped into four themes and eight inputs. We illustrate how the framework can be used to inform context-dependent implementation strategies, using the process of 'engagement' as an example. The example application includes both lessons learned from successfully implemented plans across the engagement spectrum, and highlights key barriers that can hinder attempts to bridge the assessment-implementation gap.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanessa M Adams
- Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Technology, Environments and Design, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia.
| | - Morena Mills
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire, England, UK
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Daniel B Segan
- Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY, 10460, USA
- Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, 128 Market Street, Stateline, NV, USA
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Georgina G Gurney
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Craig Groves
- Science for Nature and People Partnership, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Frank W Davis
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93117, USA
| | - Jorge G Álvarez-Romero
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
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16
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Reside AE, Critchell K, Crayn DM, Goosem M, Goosem S, Hoskin CJ, Sydes T, Vanderduys EP, Pressey RL. Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change. Ecol Appl 2019; 29:e01824. [PMID: 30390399 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 08/16/2018] [Accepted: 09/10/2018] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- April E Reside
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Kay Critchell
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Darren M Crayn
- Centre for Tropical Environmental Sustainability Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, 4878, Australia
- Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University, McGregor Road, Smithfield, Queensland, 4878, Australia
| | - Miriam Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Stephen Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Wet Tropics Management Authority, P.O. Box 2050, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Travis Sydes
- Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Eric P Vanderduys
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, ATSIP PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Queensland, 4814, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
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17
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Kininmonth S, Weeks R, Abesamis RA, Bernardo LPC, Beger M, Treml EA, Williamson D, Pressey RL. Strategies in scheduling marine protected area establishment in a network system. Ecol Appl 2019; 29:e01820. [PMID: 30550634 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2018] [Revised: 05/27/2018] [Accepted: 08/20/2018] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Instantaneous implementation of systematic conservation plans at regional scales is rare. More typically, planned actions are applied incrementally over periods of years or decades. During protracted implementation, the character of the connected ecological system will change as a function of external anthropogenic pressures, local metapopulation processes, and environmental fluctuations. For heavily exploited systems, habitat quality will deteriorate as the plan is implemented, potentially influencing the schedule of protected area implementation necessary to achieve conservation objectives. Understanding the best strategy to adopt for applying management within a connected environment is desirable, especially given limited conservation resources. Here, we model the sequential application of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) in the central Philippines within a metapopulation framework, using a range of network-based decision rules. The model was based on selecting 33 sites for protection from 101 possible sites over a 35-yr period. The graph-theoretic network criteria to select sites for protection included PageRank, maximum degree, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality, minimum degree, random, and historical events. We also included a dynamic strategy called colonization-extinction rate that was updated every year based on the changing capacity of each site to produce and absorb larvae. Each rule was evaluated in the context of achieving the maximum metapopulation mean lifetime at the conclusion of the implementation phase. MPAs were designated through the alteration of the extinction risk parameter. The highest ranked criteria were PageRank while the actual implementation from historical records ranked lowest. Our results indicate that protecting the sites ranked highest with regard to larval supply is likely to yield the highest benefit for fish abundance and fish metapopulation persistence. Model results highlighted the benefits of including network processes in conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuart Kininmonth
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket, Sweden
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- School of Marine Studies, The University of South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rene A Abesamis
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- Silliman University-Angelo King Center for Research and Environmental Management, Dumaguete City, Philippines
| | | | - Maria Beger
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Eric A Treml
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Williamson
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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18
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Smallhorn-West PF, Bridge TC, Malimali S, Pressey RL, Jones GP. Predicting impact to assess the efficacy of community-based marine reserve design. Conserv Lett 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick F. Smallhorn-West
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture; College of Science and Engineering; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
| | - Tom C.L. Bridge
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
- Queensland Museum Network; Townsville QLD 4810 Australia
| | | | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
| | - Geoffrey P. Jones
- Marine Biology and Aquaculture; College of Science and Engineering; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
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19
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Dale AP, Vella K, Gooch M, Potts R, Pressey RL, Brodie J, Eberhard R. Avoiding Implementation Failure in Catchment Landscapes: A Case Study in Governance of the Great Barrier Reef. Environ Manage 2018; 62:70-81. [PMID: 28980059 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-017-0932-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2016] [Accepted: 08/12/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Water quality outcomes affecting Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are governed by multi-level and multi-party decision-making that influences forested and agricultural landscapes. With international concern about the GBR's declining ecological health, this paper identifies and focuses on implementation failure (primarily at catchment scale) as a systemic risk within the overall GBR governance system. There has been limited integrated analysis of the full suite of governance subdomains that often envelop defined policies, programs and delivery activities that influence water quality in the GBR. We consider how the implementation of separate purpose-specific policies and programs at catchment scale operate against well-known, robust design concepts for integrated catchment governance. We find design concerns within ten important governance subdomains that operate within GBR catchments. At a whole-of-GBR scale, we find a weak policy focus on strengthening these delivery-oriented subdomains and on effort integration across these subdomains within catchments. These governance problems when combined may contribute to failure in the implementation of major national, state and local government policies focused on improving water quality in the GBR, a lesson relevant to landscapes globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allan P Dale
- The Cairns Institute, James Cook University (JCU), PO Box 6811, Cairns, QLD, 4870, Australia.
| | - Karen Vella
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, QLD, 4000, Australia
| | - Margaret Gooch
- The Cairns Institute, James Cook University (JCU), PO Box 6811, Cairns, QLD, 4870, Australia
| | - Ruth Potts
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, QLD, 4000, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, JCU, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Jon Brodie
- Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, JCU, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Rachel Eberhard
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, QLD, 4000, Australia
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20
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael A. Magris
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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21
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica E. Cramp
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture & College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Sharks Pacific, Rarotonga, Cook Islands
| | - Colin A. Simpfendorfer
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture & College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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22
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Magris RA, Andrello M, Pressey RL, Mouillot D, Dalongeville A, Jacobi MN, Manel S. Biologically representative and well-connected marine reserves enhance biodiversity persistence in conservation planning. Conserv Lett 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rafael A. Magris
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
- Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation; Ministry of Environment; Brasilia DF 70.670-350 Brazil
- School of Environmental Studies; University of Victoria; Victoria BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Marco Andrello
- PSL Research University, CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, Biogeographie et Ecologie des Vertébrés; Montpellier France
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
| | - David Mouillot
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
- MARBEC UMR 9190, CNRS - IRD; Universite Montpellier - Ifremer; 34095 Montpellier France
| | - Alicia Dalongeville
- PSL Research University, CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, Biogeographie et Ecologie des Vertébrés; Montpellier France
- MARBEC UMR 9190, CNRS - IRD; Universite Montpellier - Ifremer; 34095 Montpellier France
| | - Martin N. Jacobi
- Complex Systems Group, Department of Energy and Environment; Chalmers University of Technology; SE-412 96 Gothenburg Sweden
| | - Stéphanie Manel
- PSL Research University, CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, Biogeographie et Ecologie des Vertébrés; Montpellier France
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23
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Álvarez-Romero JG, Munguía-Vega A, Beger M, Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros M, Suárez-Castillo AN, Gurney GG, Pressey RL, Gerber LR, Morzaria-Luna HN, Reyes-Bonilla H, Adams VM, Kolb M, Graham EM, VanDerWal J, Castillo-López A, Hinojosa-Arango G, Petatán-Ramírez D, Moreno-Baez M, Godínez-Reyes CR, Torre J. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:e671-e691. [PMID: 29274104 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2017] [Revised: 09/27/2017] [Accepted: 11/08/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge G Álvarez-Romero
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Adrián Munguía-Vega
- Comunidad y Biodiversidad, A.C., Guaymas, Sonora, México
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Maria Beger
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | | | - Georgina G Gurney
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Leah R Gerber
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna
- Intercultural Center for the Study of Deserts and Oceans Inc., Tucson, AZ, USA
- Visiting Researcher at Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Héctor Reyes-Bonilla
- Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, México
| | - Vanessa M Adams
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Melanie Kolb
- Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad, México, Distrito Federal, México
- Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, Distrito Federal, México
| | - Erin M Graham
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- eResearch Centre, Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- eResearch Centre, Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Gustavo Hinojosa-Arango
- Centro para la Biodiversidad Marina y la Conservación, A.C., La Paz, Baja California Sur, México
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional, Oaxaca, México
| | | | - Marcia Moreno-Baez
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Carlos R Godínez-Reyes
- Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas: Reserva de la Biosfera Bahía de Los Ángeles, Canales de Ballenas y Salsipuedes, Bahía de los Ángeles, Baja California, México
- Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas: Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, La Ribera, Baja California Sur, México
| | - Jorge Torre
- Comunidad y Biodiversidad, A.C., Guaymas, Sonora, México
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24
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Lohr C, Wenger A, Woodberry O, Pressey RL, Morris K. Predicting island biosecurity risk from introduced fauna using Bayesian Belief Networks. Sci Total Environ 2017; 601-602:1173-1181. [PMID: 28605835 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2017] [Revised: 05/29/2017] [Accepted: 05/31/2017] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Around the globe, islands are the last refuge for many threatened and endemic species. Islands are frequently also important sites for recreation, cultural activities, and industrial development, all of which facilitate the establishment of invasive species. Surveillance is employed on islands to detect the establishment of invasive species after their arrival, leading to decisions about follow-up actions. Unless surveillance is prioritised according to risk of establishment of invasives, it may be infeasible to implement efficiently over large tracts of publicly accessible land, especially in data-deficient areas. The key biosecurity problem for many regions is one of prioritizing sites for surveillance activities and identifying invasive species most likely to disperse to, and establish, and proliferate on those sites. We created a series of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), linked by Java computing code and the freely available GeNIe application to automate the creation and computation of species- and site-specific biosecurity BBNs. The BBNs require data on island attributes, recreational or industrial visitor load, infrastructure, habitat availability, and animal behaviour and dispersal via swimming, flying, human movement, land bridges, or flood plumes. We used this biosecurity BBN to estimate the risk of 11 invasive faunal species arriving and establishing on 600 islands along the Pilbara coastline, Western Australia. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify nodes within the BBNs that required refined data inputs. Propagule pressure was the node with the greatest influence over the number of arrivals. Other nodes such as the number of visitors to islands and swimming capabilities of invasive animals greatly influenced the model results. Across the 11 species studied, our models predicted one arrival per 300 visitors. The biosecurity BBN can be used to identify the islands at highest risk from establishment of invasive species within any archipelago/s, and the invasive species most likely to establish on each island.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl Lohr
- Department of Parks and Wildlife, Science and Conservation Division, 37 Wildlife Pl, Woodvale 6026, Australia.
| | - Amelia Wenger
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
| | - Owen Woodberry
- Bayesian Intelligence Pty Ltd, PO Box 8025, Monash University, VIC 3168, Australia.
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.
| | - Keith Morris
- Department of Parks and Wildlife, Science and Conservation Division, 37 Wildlife Pl, Woodvale 6026, Australia.
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25
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Fordham DA, Brook BW, Hoskin CJ, Pressey RL, VanDerWal J, Williams SE. Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics. Biol Lett 2017; 12:rsbl.2016.0236. [PMID: 27729484 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2016] [Accepted: 09/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Stephen E Williams
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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26
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Cheok J, Pressey RL, Weeks R, VanDerWal J, Storlie C. The plans they are a‐changin’: More frequent iterative adjustment of regional priorities in the transition to local actions can benefit implementation. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Cheok
- Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
- College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
- eResearch Centre James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Collin Storlie
- eResearch Centre James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
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27
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Magris RA, Pressey RL, Mills M, Vila-Nova DA, Floeter S. Integrated conservation planning for coral reefs: Designing conservation zones for multiple conservation objectives in spatial prioritisation. Glob Ecol Conserv 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2017.05.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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28
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Schwartz MW, Cook CN, Pressey RL, Pullin AS, Runge MC, Salafsky N, Sutherland WJ, Williamson MA. Decision Support Frameworks and Tools for Conservation. Conserv Lett 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 100] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mark W. Schwartz
- The John Muir Institute of the Environment; University of California; Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - Carly N. Cook
- School of Biological Sciences; Monash University; Clayton Victoria 3800 Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville Queensland Australia
| | - Andrew S. Pullin
- Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation; Bangor University; Bangor Gwynedd LL57 2UW UK
| | - Michael C. Runge
- Patuxent Wildlife Research Center; U.S. Geological Survey; Laurel MD 20708 USA
| | | | - William J. Sutherland
- Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology; University of Cambridge; Cambridge CB2 3QZ UK
| | - Matthew A. Williamson
- The John Muir Institute of the Environment; University of California; Davis CA 95616 USA
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29
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Lohr CA, Hone J, Bode M, Dickman CR, Wenger A, Pressey RL. Modeling dynamics of native and invasive species to guide prioritization of management actions. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl A. Lohr
- Department of Parks and Wildlife Science and Conservation Division 37 Wildlife Pl Woodvale Western Australia 6026 Australia
| | - Jim Hone
- Institute for Applied Ecology University of Canberra Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Christopher R. Dickman
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney Sydney New South Wales 2006 Australia
| | - Amelia Wenger
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
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30
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Hamel MA, Pressey RL, Evans LS, Andréfouët S. The Importance of Fishing Grounds as Perceived by Local Communities Can be Undervalued by Measures of Socioeconomic Cost Used in Conservation Planning. Conserv Lett 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mélanie A. Hamel
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
- Unité Mixte de Recherche 250 ENTROPIE (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; Université de La Réunion; Centre National Recherche Scientifique) 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, Anse Vata BP A5 - 98848 Nouméa New Caledonia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Louisa S. Evans
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Exeter; Exeter EX4 4RJ United Kingdom
| | - Serge Andréfouët
- Unité Mixte de Recherche 250 ENTROPIE (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; Université de La Réunion; Centre National Recherche Scientifique) 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, Anse Vata BP A5 - 98848 Nouméa New Caledonia
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31
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Fuentes MMPB, Gredzens C, Bateman BL, Boettcher R, Ceriani SA, Godfrey MH, Helmers D, Ingram DK, Kamrowski RL, Pate M, Pressey RL, Radeloff VC. Conservation hotspots for marine turtle nesting in the United States based on coastal development. Ecol Appl 2016; 26:2706-2717. [PMID: 27907265 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2016] [Revised: 05/09/2016] [Accepted: 05/13/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Coastal areas provide nesting habitat for marine turtles that is critical for the persistence of their populations. However, many coastal areas are highly affected by coastal development, which affects the reproductive success of marine turtles. Knowing the extent to which nesting areas are exposed to these threats is essential to guide management initiatives. This information is particularly important for coastal areas with both high nesting density and dense human development, a combination that is common in the United States. We assessed the extent to which nesting areas of the loggerhead (Caretta caretta), the green (Chelonia mydas), the Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii), and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the continental United States are exposed to coastal development and identified conservation hotspots that currently have high reproductive importance and either face high exposure to coastal development (needing intervention), or have low exposure to coastal development, and are good candidates for continued and future protection. Night-time light, housing, and population density were used as proxies for coastal development and human disturbance. About 81.6% of nesting areas were exposed to housing and human population, and 97.8% were exposed to light pollution. Further, most (>65%) of the very high- and high-density nesting areas for each species/subpopulation, except for the Kemp's ridley, were exposed to coastal development. Forty-nine nesting sites were selected as conservation hotspots; of those high-density nesting sites, 49% were sites with no/low exposure to coastal development and the other 51% were exposed to high-density coastal development. Conservation strategies need to account for ~66.8% of all marine turtle nesting areas being on private land and for nesting sites being exposed to large numbers of seasonal residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariana M P B Fuentes
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Room 507 OSB, 117 North Woodward Avenue, Tallahassee, Florida, 32306, USA
| | - Christian Gredzens
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Room 507 OSB, 117 North Woodward Avenue, Tallahassee, Florida, 32306, USA
| | - Brooke L Bateman
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Ruth Boettcher
- Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries, Charles City, Virginia, 23030, USA
| | - Simona A Ceriani
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, 32816, USA
| | - Matthew H Godfrey
- North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Beaufort, North Carolina, 28516, USA
- Duke University Marine Lab, Nicholas School of Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina, 28516, USA
- Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Center for Marine Sciences and Technology, North Carolina State University, Morehead City, North Carolina, 28557, USA
| | - David Helmers
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | | | - Ruth L Kamrowski
- Pendoley Environmental, Booragoon, Western Australia, 6154, Australia
| | - Michelle Pate
- South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Charleston, South Carolina, 29412, USA
| | - Robert L Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
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Dale AP, Vella K, Pressey RL, Brodie J, Gooch M, Potts R, Eberhard R. Risk analysis of the governance system affecting outcomes in the Great Barrier Reef. J Environ Manage 2016; 183:712-721. [PMID: 27641654 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.09.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Revised: 08/29/2016] [Accepted: 09/03/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The state and trend of the Great Barrier Reef's (GBR's) ecological health remains problematic, influencing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) statements regarding GBR governance. While UNESCO's concerns triggered separate strategic assessments by the Australian and Queensland governments, there has been no independent and integrated review of the key risks within the overall system of governance influencing GBR outcomes. As a case study of international significance, this paper applies Governance Systems Analysis (GSA), a novel analytical framework that identifies the governance themes, domains and subdomains most likely to influence environmental and socio-economic outcomes in complex natural systems. This GBR-focussed application of GSA identifies governance subdomains that present high, medium, or low risk of failure to produce positive outcomes for the Reef. This enabled us to determine that three "whole of system" governance problems could undermine GBR outcomes. First, we stress the integrative importance of the Long Term Sustainability Plan (LTSP) Subdomain. Sponsored by the Australian and Queensland governments, this subdomain concerns the primary institutional arrangements for coordinated GBR planning and delivery, but due to its recent emergence, it faces several internal governance challenges. Second, we find a major risk of implementation failure in the achievement of GBR water quality actions due to a lack of system-wide focus on building strong and stable delivery systems at catchment scale. Finally, we conclude that the LTSP Subdomain currently has too limited a mandate/capacity to influence several high-risk subdomains that have not been, but must be more strongly aligned with Reef management (e.g. the Greenhouse Gas Emission Management Subdomain). Our analysis enables exploration of governance system reforms needed to address environmental trends in the GBR and reflects on the potential application of GSA in other complex land and sea-scapes across the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allan P Dale
- The Cairns Institute, James Cook University (JCU), PO Box 6811, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia.
| | - Karen Vella
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, JCU, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia.
| | - Jon Brodie
- Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, JCU, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia.
| | - Margaret Gooch
- Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, PO Box 1379, Townsville, Queensland, 4810, Australia.
| | - Ruth Potts
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
| | - Rachel Eberhard
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
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Cheok J, Pressey RL, Weeks R, Andréfouët S, Moloney J. Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0164869. [PMID: 27829042 PMCID: PMC5102401 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2016] [Accepted: 10/03/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial data characteristics have the potential to influence various aspects of prioritising biodiversity areas for systematic conservation planning. There has been some exploration of the combined effects of size of planning units and level of classification of physical environments on the pattern and extent of priority areas. However, these data characteristics have yet to be explicitly investigated in terms of their interaction with different socioeconomic cost data during the spatial prioritisation process. We quantify the individual and interacting effects of three factors—planning-unit size, thematic resolution of reef classes, and spatial variability of socioeconomic costs—on spatial priorities for marine conservation, in typical marine planning exercises that use reef classification maps as a proxy for biodiversity. We assess these factors by creating 20 unique prioritisation scenarios involving combinations of different levels of each factor. Because output data from these scenarios are analogous to ecological data, we applied ecological statistics to determine spatial similarities between reserve designs. All three factors influenced prioritisations to different extents, with cost variability having the largest influence, followed by planning-unit size and thematic resolution of reef classes. The effect of thematic resolution on spatial design depended on the variability of cost data used. In terms of incidental representation of conservation objectives derived from finer-resolution data, scenarios prioritised with uniform cost outperformed those prioritised with variable cost. Following our analyses, we make recommendations to help maximise the spatial and cost efficiency and potential effectiveness of future marine conservation plans in similar planning scenarios. We recommend that planners: employ the smallest planning-unit size practical; invest in data at the highest possible resolution; and, when planning across regional extents with the intention of incidentally representing fine-resolution features, prioritise the whole region with uniform costs rather than using coarse-resolution data on variable costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Cheok
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4811
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4811
- * E-mail:
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4811
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4811
| | - Serge Andréfouët
- UMR-9220 ENTROPIE, (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Université de la Réunion, CNRS), Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | - James Moloney
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, 4811
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Pressey RL, Visconti P, Ferraro PJ. Making parks make a difference: poor alignment of policy, planning and management with protected-area impact, and ways forward. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2016; 370:rstb.2014.0280. [PMID: 26460132 PMCID: PMC4614736 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Policy and practice around protected areas are poorly aligned with the basic purpose of protection, which is to make a difference. The difference made by protected areas is their impact, defined in program evaluation as the outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no protection or a different form of protection. Although impact evaluation of programs is well established in fields such as medicine, education and development aid, it is rare in nature conservation. We show that the present weak alignment with impact of policy targets and operational objectives for protected areas involves a great risk: targets and objectives can be achieved while making little difference to the conservation of biodiversity. We also review potential ways of increasing the difference made by protected areas, finding a poor evidence base for the use of planning and management ‘levers’ to better achieve impact. We propose a dual strategy for making protected areas more effective in their basic role of saving nature, outlining ways of developing targets and objectives focused on impact while also improving the evidence for effective planning and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Piero Visconti
- Microsoft Research, Computational Science Laboratory, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK
| | - Paul J Ferraro
- Carey School of Business and Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
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Gurney GG, Pressey RL, Cinner JE, Pollnac R, Campbell SJ. Integrated conservation and development: evaluating a community-based marine protected area project for equality of socioeconomic impacts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2016; 370:rstb.2014.0277. [PMID: 26460130 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the prevalence of protected areas, evidence of their impacts on people is weak and remains hotly contested in conservation policy. A key question in this debate is whether socioeconomic impacts vary according to social subgroup. Given that social inequity can create conflict and impede poverty reduction, understanding how protected areas differentially affect people is critical to designing them to achieve social and biological goals. Understanding heterogeneous responses to protected areas can improve targeting of management activities and help elucidate the pathways through which impacts of protected areas occur. Here, we assessed whether the socioeconomic impacts of marine protected areas (MPAs)-designed to achieve goals for both conservation and poverty alleviation-differed according to age, gender or religion in associated villages in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using data from pre-, mid- and post-implementation of the MPAs for control and project villages, we found little empirical evidence that impacts on five key socioeconomic indicators related to poverty differed according to social subgroup. We found suggestive empirical evidence that the effect of the MPAs on environmental knowledge differed by age and religion; over the medium and long terms, younger people and Muslims showed greater improvements compared with older people and Christians, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgina G Gurney
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Joshua E Cinner
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Richard Pollnac
- Marine Affairs Department, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA
| | - Stuart J Campbell
- Indonesia Marine Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
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Ferraro PJ, Pressey RL. Measuring the difference made by conservation initiatives: protected areas and their environmental and social impacts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2016; 370:rstb.2014.0270. [PMID: 26460123 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Success in conservation depends on our ability to reduce human pressures in areas that harbour biological diversity and ecosystem services. Legally protecting some of these areas through the creation of protected areas is a key component of conservation efforts globally. To develop effective protected area networks, practitioners need credible, scientific evidence about the degree to which protected areas affect environmental and social outcomes, and how these effects vary with context. Such evidence has been lacking, but the situation is changing as conservation scientists adopt more sophisticated research designs for evaluating protected areas' past impacts and for predicting their future impacts. Complementing these scientific advances, conservation funders and practitioners are paying increasing attention to evaluating their investments with more scientifically rigorous evaluation designs. This theme issue highlights recent advances in the science of protected area evaluations and explores the challenges to developing a more credible evidence base that can help societies achieve their goals of protecting nature while enhancing human welfare.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul J Ferraro
- Carey School of Business and Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
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Bode M, Williamson DH, Weeks R, Jones GP, Almany GR, Harrison HB, Hopf JK, Pressey RL. Planning Marine Reserve Networks for Both Feature Representation and Demographic Persistence Using Connectivity Patterns. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0154272. [PMID: 27168206 PMCID: PMC4864080 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2015] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Marine reserve networks must ensure the representation of important conservation features, and also guarantee the persistence of key populations. For many species, designing reserve networks is complicated by the absence or limited availability of spatial and life-history data. This is particularly true for data on larval dispersal, which has only recently become available. However, systematic conservation planning methods currently incorporate demographic processes through unsatisfactory surrogates. There are therefore two key challenges to designing marine reserve networks that achieve feature representation and demographic persistence constraints. First, constructing a method that efficiently incorporates persistence as well as complementary feature representation. Second, incorporating persistence using a mechanistic description of population viability, rather than a proxy such as size or distance. Here we construct a novel systematic conservation planning method that addresses both challenges, and parameterise it to design a hypothetical marine reserve network for fringing coral reefs in the Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. For this application, we describe how demographic persistence goals can be constructed for an important reef fish species in the region, the bar-cheeked trout (Plectropomus maculatus). We compare reserve networks that are optimally designed for either feature representation or demographic persistence, with a reserve network that achieves both goals simultaneously. As well as being practically applicable, our analyses also provide general insights into marine reserve planning for both representation and demographic persistence. First, persistence constraints for dispersive organisms are likely to be much harder to achieve than representation targets, due to their greater complexity. Second, persistence and representation constraints pull the reserve network design process in divergent directions, making it difficult to efficiently achieve both constraints. Although our method can be readily applied to the data-rich Keppel Islands case study, we finally consider the factors that limit the method's utility in information-poor contexts common in marine conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Bode
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - David H. Williamson
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
| | - Rebecca Weeks
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
| | - Geoff P. Jones
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
- College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
| | - Glenn R. Almany
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-EPHE-UPVD, Universite de Perpignan, 66860, Perpignan Cedex, France
| | - Hugo B. Harrison
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
| | - Jess K. Hopf
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
- College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, QLD, Australia
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Hughes TP, Cameron DS, Chin A, Connolly SR, Day JC, Jones GP, McCook L, McGinnity P, Mumby PJ, Pears RJ, Pressey RL, Russ GR, Tanzer J, Tobin A, Young MAL. A critique of claims for negative impacts of Marine Protected Areas on fisheries. Ecol Appl 2016; 26:637-641. [PMID: 27209801 DOI: 10.1890/15-0457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
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Bridge TCL, Grech AM, Pressey RL. Factors influencing incidental representation of previously unknown conservation features in marine protected areas. Conserv Biol 2016; 30:154-165. [PMID: 26040905 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2015] [Accepted: 05/25/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Spatially explicit information on species distributions for conservation planning is invariably incomplete; therefore, the use of surrogates is required to represent broad-scale patterns of biodiversity. Despite significant interest in the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting spatial distributions of biodiversity, few researchers have explored questions involving the ability of surrogates to incidentally represent unknown features of conservation interest. We used the Great Barrier Reef marine reserve network to examine factors affecting incidental representation of conservation features that were unknown at the time the reserve network was established. We used spatially explicit information on the distribution of 39 seabed habitats and biological assemblages and the conservation planning software Marxan to examine how incidental representation was affected by the spatial characteristics of the features; the conservation objectives (the minimum proportion of each feature included in no-take areas); the spatial configuration of no-take areas; and the opportunity cost of conservation. Cost was closely and inversely correlated to incidental representation. However, incidental representation was achieved, even in a region with only coarse-scale environmental data, by adopting a precautionary approach that explicitly considered the potential for unknown features. Our results indicate that incidental representation is enhanced by partitioning selection units along biophysical gradients to account for unknown within-feature variability and ensuring that no-take areas are well distributed throughout the region; by setting high conservation objectives that (in this case >33%) maximize the chances of capturing unknown features incidentally; and by carefully considering the designation of cost to planning units when using decision-support tools for reserve design. The lessons learned from incidental representation in the Great Barrier Reef have implications for conservation planning in other regions, particularly those that lack detailed environmental and ecological data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom C L Bridge
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Queensland, 4810, Australia
| | - Alana M Grech
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, 2109, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
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Sheaves M, Coles R, Dale P, Grech A, Pressey RL, Waltham NJ. Enhancing the Value and Validity of EIA: Serious Science to Protect Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Conserv Lett 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Marcus Sheaves
- College of Marine & Environmental Sciences James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
- TropWATER (Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research) James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Rob Coles
- TropWATER (Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research) James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Pat Dale
- Environmental Futures Research Institute Griffith School of Environment Griffith University Nathan Queensland 4111 Australia
| | - Alana Grech
- Department of Environmental Sciences Macquarie University Sydney NSW 2109 Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Nathan J. Waltham
- TropWATER (Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research) James Cook University Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
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Álvarez-Romero JG, Pressey RL, Ban NC, Brodie J. Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0145574. [PMID: 26714166 PMCID: PMC4695094 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0145574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2015] [Accepted: 12/04/2015] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Natalie C. Ban
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jon Brodie
- Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research (TropWater), Catchment to Reef Research Group, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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Abstract
Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael A. Magris
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Scott F. Heron
- National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- Physics Department, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, College of Science, Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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Gurney GG, Pressey RL, Ban NC, Álvarez-Romero JG, Jupiter S, Adams VM. Efficient and equitable design of marine protected areas in Fiji through inclusion of stakeholder-specific objectives in conservation planning. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:1378-1389. [PMID: 25916976 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2014] [Accepted: 01/02/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The efficacy of protected areas varies, partly because socioeconomic factors are not sufficiently considered in planning and management. Although integrating socioeconomic factors into systematic conservation planning is increasingly advocated, research is needed to progress from recognition of these factors to incorporating them effectively in spatial prioritization of protected areas. We evaluated 2 key aspects of incorporating socioeconomic factors into spatial prioritization: treatment of socioeconomic factors as costs or objectives and treatment of stakeholders as a single group or multiple groups. Using as a case study the design of a system of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) in Kubulau, Fiji, we assessed how these aspects affected the configuration of no-take MPAs in terms of trade-offs between biodiversity objectives, fisheries objectives, and equity in catch losses among fisher stakeholder groups. The achievement of fisheries objectives and equity tended to trade-off concavely with increasing biodiversity objectives, indicating that it is possible to achieve low to mid-range biodiversity objectives with relatively small losses to fisheries and equity. Importantly, the extent of trade-offs depended on the method used to incorporate socioeconomic data and was least severe when objectives were set for each fisher stakeholder group explicitly. We found that using different methods to incorporate socioeconomic factors that require similar data and expertise can result in plans with very different impacts on local stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgina G Gurney
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Natalie C Ban
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3060 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada
| | - Jorge G Álvarez-Romero
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Stacy Jupiter
- Wildlife Conservation Society Fiji Country Program, 11 Ma'afu Street, Suva, Fiji
| | - Vanessa M Adams
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, 0909, Australia
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Ban SS, Pressey RL, Graham NAJ. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0135465. [PMID: 26284372 PMCID: PMC4540441 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2015] [Accepted: 07/23/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen S. Ban
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Nicholas A. J. Graham
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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Lawler JJ, Ackerly DD, Albano CM, Anderson MG, Dobrowski SZ, Gill JL, Heller NE, Pressey RL, Sanderson EW, Weiss SB. The theory behind, and the challenges of, conserving nature's stage in a time of rapid change. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:618-629. [PMID: 25922899 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2014] [Accepted: 01/21/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua J Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115, U.S.A
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology and Jepson Herbarium, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, U.S.A
| | - Christine M Albano
- John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, U.S.A
| | | | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, U.S.A
| | - Jacquelyn L Gill
- School of Biology and Ecology & the Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, U.S.A
| | - Nicole E Heller
- Dwight Center for Conservation Science, Pepperwood Preserve, Santa Rosa, CA, 95404, U.S.A
| | | | - Eric W Sanderson
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Programs, Bronx, NY, 10460, U.S.A
| | - Stuart B Weiss
- Creekside Center for Earth Observation, Menlo Park, CA, 94025, U.S.A
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Comer PJ, Pressey RL, Hunter ML, Schloss CA, Buttrick SC, Heller NE, Tirpak JM, Faith DP, Cross MS, Shaffer ML. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:692-701. [PMID: 25923052 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2014] [Accepted: 01/21/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick J Comer
- NatureServe, 2108 55th Street, Suite 220, Boulder, CO, 80301, U.S.A
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Malcolm L Hunter
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, U.S.A
| | - Carrie A Schloss
- The Nature Conservancy, 201 Mission Street, San Francisco, CA, 94105, U.S.A
| | - Steven C Buttrick
- The Nature Conservancy, 821 S.E. 14th Avenue, Portland, OR, 97214-2537, U.S.A
| | - Nicole E Heller
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708-0328, U.S.A
| | - John M Tirpak
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 700 Cajundome Boulevard, Lafayette, LA, 70506, U.S.A
| | - Daniel P Faith
- Australian Museum, 6 College Street, Sydney, NSW, 2010, Australia
| | - Molly S Cross
- Wildlife Conservation Society, North America Program, 301 N. Willson Avenue, Bozeman, MT, 59715, U.S.A
| | - Mark L Shaffer
- U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of the Science Advisor, Department of the Interior, 4401 North Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA, 22203, U.S.A
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Beier P, Sutcliffe P, Hjort J, Faith DP, Pressey RL, Albuquerque F. A review of selection-based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:668-679. [PMID: 25923191 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2014] [Accepted: 01/21/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates--including geophysical settings and climate types--have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within-site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species' environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Beier
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011-5018, U.S.A
| | - Patricia Sutcliffe
- Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
| | - Jan Hjort
- Department of Geography, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 3000, 90014, Oulu, Finland
| | | | - Robert L Pressey
- Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Fabio Albuquerque
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011-5018, U.S.A
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Visconti P, Bakkenes M, Baisero D, Brooks T, Butchart SHM, Joppa L, Alkemade R, Di Marco M, Santini L, Hoffmann M, Maiorano L, Pressey RL, Arponen A, Boitani L, Reside AE, van Vuuren DP, Rondinini C. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios. Conserv Lett 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 137] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Piero Visconti
- Microsoft Research Computational Science Laboratory; 21 Station Road Cambridge CB1 FB UK
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Michel Bakkenes
- PBL; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; PO Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands
| | - Daniele Baisero
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Thomas Brooks
- IUCN Species Survival Commission; International Union for Conservation of Nature; 28 rue Mauverney CH-1196 Gland Switzerland
- World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF); University of the Philippines Los Baños; Laguna 4031 Philippines
- School of Geography and Environmental Studies; University of Tasmania; Hobart TAS 7001 Australia
| | | | - Lucas Joppa
- Microsoft Research Computational Science Laboratory; 21 Station Road Cambridge CB1 FB UK
| | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; PO Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands
- Environmental Systems Analysis Group; Wageningen University; P. O. Box 47 6700 AA Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Michael Hoffmann
- IUCN Species Survival Commission; International Union for Conservation of Nature; 28 rue Mauverney CH-1196 Gland Switzerland
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; 219c Huntingdon Road Cambridge CB3 0DL UK
| | - Luigi Maiorano
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Robert L. Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
| | - Anni Arponen
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences; University of Helsinki; P.O. Box 65 Helsinki 00014 Finland
| | - Luigi Boitani
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
| | - April E. Reside
- Centre for Tropical Environmental & Sustainability Sciences; James Cook University; QLD 4811 Australia
| | - Detlef P. van Vuuren
- PBL; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; PO Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of Geosciences; Utrecht University; Heidelberglaan 2 3584 CS Utrecht The Netherlands
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome; Viale dell’Università 32; Rome 00185 Italy
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Fuentes MMPB, Blackwood J, Jones B, Kim M, Leis B, Limpus CJ, Marsh H, Mitchell J, Pouzols FM, Pressey RL, Visconti P. A decision framework for prioritizing multiple management actions for threatened marine megafauna. Ecol Appl 2015; 25:200-214. [PMID: 26255368 DOI: 10.1890/13-1524.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Resources for conserving biodiversity are invariably insufficient. This situation creates the need for transparent, systematic frameworks to help stakeholders prioritize the allocation of resources across multiple management actions. We developed a novel framework that explicitly prioritizes actions to minimize the impacts of several threats across a species' range. The framework uses a budget constraint and maximizes conservation outcomes from a set of management actions, accounting for the likelihood of the action being successfully applied and accepted by local and Indigenous communities. This approach is novel in that it integrates local knowledge and expert opinion with optimization software, thereby minimizing assumptions about likelihood of success of actions and their effectiveness. To test the framework, we used the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and Torres Strait population of the flatback turtle, Natator depressus, as a case study. This approach allowed the framework to be applied in a data-poor context, a situation common in conservation planning. The framework identified the best set of actions to maximize the conservation of flatback eggs for scenarios with different budgets and management parameters and allowed comparisons between optimized and preselected scenarios. Optimized scenarios considered all implementable actions to explore how to best allocate resources with a specified budget and focus. Preselected scenarios were used to evaluate current allocations of funds and/or potential budget allocations suggested by different stakeholders. Scenarios that used a combination of aerial and ground strategies to reduce predation of eggs performed better than scenarios that focused only on reducing harvest of eggs. The performances of optimized and preselected scenarios were generally similar among scenarios that targeted similar threats. However, the cost-effectiveness of optimized scenarios was usually higher than that of preselected scenarios, demonstrating the value of conducting a systematic optimization approach. Our method provides a foundation for more effective conservation investments and guidance to prioritize actions within recovery plans while considering the sociopolitical and cultural context of decisions. The framework can be adapted easily to a wide range of species, geographical scales, and life stages.
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50
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Anthony KRN, Marshall PA, Abdulla A, Beeden R, Bergh C, Black R, Eakin CM, Game ET, Gooch M, Graham NAJ, Green A, Heron SF, van Hooidonk R, Knowland C, Mangubhai S, Marshall N, Maynard JA, McGinnity P, McLeod E, Mumby PJ, Nyström M, Obura D, Oliver J, Possingham HP, Pressey RL, Rowlands GP, Tamelander J, Wachenfeld D, Wear S. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:48-61. [PMID: 25196132 PMCID: PMC4310291 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 95] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2014] [Revised: 07/23/2014] [Accepted: 07/23/2014] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenneth R N Anthony
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB3, Townsville, Qld, 4810, Australia
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