Assessing the implementation of a comprehensive quality management system for cross-sectoral psycho-oncology in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Quality management in healthcare is essential for safe, effective, and patient-centered services. Quality management systems (QMS) monitor and improve healthcare quality. Integrating QMS is crucial for optimal quality of care, but previous studies show gaps in integration. This study aims to assess program adherence to a QMS in cross-sectoral psycho-oncological care and to develop strategies for better integration, ultimately improving healthcare quality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study used a utility analysis to assess the program adherence of a cross-sectoral psycho-oncology care program using a 5-point scale. The evaluation process involved breaking down the program into distinct areas, and used key figures and developed indicators to assess adherence. Descriptive statistics were used.

RESULTS

The study conducted a comprehensive assessment of program adherence in a complex care program, analysing 4460 evaluation cases based on 128 quality indicators. The results showed a score of 4.2 out of 5 points (84%), indicating a highly effective implementation of the QMS. Notably, the study observed successful implementation of top-down elements, while encountering more challenges in integrating bottom-up aspects.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates effective implementation of a comprehensive QMS. Successful integration was observed in areas such as care concept, care management, quality assurance, and IT-based documentation, while challenges remain in quality development and indicators. Active leadership involvement, staff training, data collection, and a learning culture are essential for successful implementation. Future research should assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of QMSs and develop tailored approaches to sustain healthcare professionals' motivation in quality improvement efforts.

Supplementary orthopaedic screening for children and adolescents to prevent permanent skeletal deformities - protocol for the "OrthoKids" study

BACKGROUND

Skeletal deformities (SD) in children and adolescents can lead to arthritic conditions, impairment of quality of life, and high treatment costs in the long term. However, comprehensive data on the prevalence of SDs in children and adolescents are limited and it remains therefore unclear whether there is a healthcare gap. "OrthoKids" is a project that addresses this evidence gap by implementing an orthopaedic screening for children and adolescents that supplements existing detection examinations within statutory standard care in Germany.

OBJECTIVE

To detect SDs so that they can be treated as needed at an early stage.

METHODS

The implementation of the supplementary orthopaedic screening will be evaluated through an exploratory cohort study that is set up in the German state Baden-Wuerttemberg. 20,000 children and adolescents aged 10 to 14 years will be recruited as a prospective cohort. A retrospective control cohort will be formed based on claims data provided by two cooperating statutory health insurances (SHIs). Participating children and adolescents receive a one-time orthopaedic screening. If at least one SD is diagnosed, treatment will be provided as part of the statutory standard care. Within the scope of the project, a follow-up examination will be performed after one year. An IT-platform will complement the study. The primary outcome measure is the point prevalence of scoliosis, genu varum/valgum, hip dysplasia, and flat feet. Secondary outcome measures are (i) the point prevalence of further less common SDs, (ii) health-related quality of life (HRQoL), (iii) sports ability based on activity (physical/athletic), physical constraints, and (sports) injuries, as well as (iv) monetary consequences of the orthopaedic screenings' implementation. Implementation determinants will be evaluated, too.

DISCUSSION

If the supplementary orthopaedic screening proves to be viable, it could be considered as a supplementary examination for children and adolescents within the frame of SHI in Germany. This could relieve the burden of disease among children and adolescents with SDs. In addition, it could disburden SHIs in the medium to long term.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The OrthoKids study was registered in the German Clinical Trials Registry (Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien (DRKS)) on 26th July 2022 under the number 00029057.

Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scottish neonates 2020-2022: a national, population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine neonates in Scotland aged 0-27 days with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by viral testing; the risk of confirmed neonatal infection by maternal and infant characteristics; and hospital admissions associated with confirmed neonatal infections.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING AND POPULATION

All live births in Scotland, 1 March 2020-31 January 2022.

RESULTS

There were 141 neonates with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection over the study period, giving an overall infection rate of 153 per 100 000 live births (141/92 009, 0.15%). Among infants born to women with confirmed infection around the time of birth, the confirmed neonatal infection rate was 1812 per 100 000 live births (15/828, 1.8%). Two-thirds (92/141, 65.2%) of neonates with confirmed infection had an associated admission to neonatal or (more commonly) paediatric care. Six of these babies (6/92, 6.5%) were admitted to neonatal and/or paediatric intensive care; however, none of these six had COVID-19 recorded as their main diagnosis. There were no neonatal deaths among babies with confirmed infection.

IMPLICATIONS AND RELEVANCE

Confirmed neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection was uncommon over the first 23 months of the pandemic in Scotland. Secular trends in the neonatal confirmed infection rate broadly followed those seen in the general population, although at a lower level. Maternal confirmed infection at birth was associated with an increased risk of neonatal confirmed infection. Two-thirds of neonates with confirmed infection had an associated admission to hospital, with resulting implications for the baby, family and services, although their outcomes were generally good. Ascertainment of confirmed infection depends on the extent of testing, and this is likely to have varied over time and between groups: the extent of unconfirmed infection is inevitably unknown.

CT radiomic signature predicts survival and chemotherapy benefit in stage I and II HPV-associated oropharyngeal carcinoma

Chemoradiation is a common therapeutic regimen for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). However, not all patients benefit from chemotherapy, especially patients with low-risk characteristics. We aim to develop and validate a prognostic and predictive radiomic image signature (pRiS) to inform survival and chemotherapy benefit using computed tomography (CT) scans from 491 stage I and II HPV-associated OPSCC, which were divided into three cohorts D₁-D₃. The prognostic performance of pRiS was evaluated on two test sets (D₂, n = 162; D₃, n = 269) using concordance index. Patients from D₂ and D₃ who received either radiotherapy alone or chemoradiation were used to validate pRiS as predictive of added benefit of chemotherapy. Seven features were selected to construct pRiS, which was found to be prognostic of overall survival (OS) on univariate analysis in D₂ (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-4.16, p = 0.02) and D₃ (HR = 2.74, 95% CI, 1.34-5.62, p = 0.006). Chemotherapy was associated with improved OS for high-pRiS patients in D₂ (radiation vs chemoradiation, HR = 4.47, 95% CI, 1.73-11.6, p = 0.002) and D₃ (radiation vs chemoradiation, HR = 2.99, 95% CI, 1.04-8.63, p = 0.04). In contrast, chemotherapy did not improve OS for low-pRiS patients, which indicates these patients did not derive additional benefit from chemotherapy and could be considered for treatment de-escalation. The proposed radiomic signature was prognostic of patient survival and informed benefit from chemotherapy for stage I and II HPV-associated OPSCC patients.

Family doctors’ attitudes toward peer support programs for type 2 diabetes and/or coronary artery disease: an exploratory survey among German practitioners

Background

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary artery disease (CAD) are chronic illnesses where adherence to a healthy lifestyle is crucial. If organisational and cultural factors are well managed, Peer support programs (PSP) can improve self-management, quality of life, and health outcomes. In preparation for launching a PSP, we surveyed family doctors (FD) about their attitudes toward such a program and about potential barriers, and facilitators.

Methods

In March 2020 we surveyed 896 FDs from five university teaching practice networks in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany, via an anonymous web-based survey. The questionnaire addressed details of PSPs, including suitable patients and FDs‘role. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics; qualitative material underwent content analysis by two researchers.

Results

A total of 165 FDs responded (response rate: 18.4%), 97% were practice owners. Respondents viewed PSPs positively (T2D: 92.0%, CAD 89.9%), especially for patients with poor self-structuring (82.7%), low motivation (76.3%) and few social contacts (67.6%). On average, FDs were able to identify 4.0 ± 3.2 patients as potential group leaders. Major facilitators reported included motivation by peers (92.5%), exercise (79.1%), and social contacts (70.1%). Waning interest over time (73.1%) and poor motivation (70.9%) were considered barriers. The majority of FDs would recommend PSPs to their patients (89.5%). They considered such a program a valuable addition to current care (79.7%). The percentage of FDs’ who expected long-term benefits for their workload was relatively low (37.6%).

Conclusions

In an exploratory survey among German FDs on PSPs, respondents viewed PSPs as a valuable add-on for T2D and CAD patients, while not expecting a positive impact on their workload. Communication with FDs on PSPs may need to highlight anticipated implementation outcomes such as benefits of PSPs to the practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-022-01827-3.

Prognostic value of computed tomography scan detection of cartilage invasion in advanced laryngeal cancer treated with primary total laryngectomy

Background

We sought to determine whether detection of cartilage invasion (CI) by computed tomography predicts oncologic outcomes after primary total laryngectomy.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study comparing oncologic outcomes between radiologic versus pathologic diagnosis.

Results

Assessment of clear CI versus gestalt CI resulted in 84% versus 48% specificity, 90.9% versus 80.3% positive predictive value (PPV), 60.6% versus 80.3% sensitivity, 44.7% versus 48% negative predictive value (NPV), respectively. Disease‐free survival (DFS) was similar between cT4a and cT3/cT2 patients (p = 0.87). DFS trended towards superiority among pT3/pT2 versus pT4a patients (p = 0.18). DFS was similar among patients with CI on radiologist gestalt versus no CI (p = 0.94). Histologically confirmed CI was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.46 (p = 0.27), gestalt CI 1.13 (p = 0.70), and clear CI 1.61 (p = 0.10) for DFS.

Conclusion

Gestalt determination of CI results in high sensitivity but low specificity, while clear determination of CI results in moderate sensitivity and high specificity.

Performance of the Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System as applied by general neuroradiologists to predict recurrence of head and neck cancers

BACKGROUND

The Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System (NI-RADS) is used to assess imaging after head and neck cancer treatment. We evaluated NI-RADS with general neuroradiologists rather than with head and neck subspecialists.

METHODS

Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging examinations with/without positron emission tomography from May 2018 to September 2020 were retrospectively identified. NI-RADS scores at the primary site and lymph nodes were provided by 21 neuroradiologists. Recurrence status was based on clinical and imaging findings. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess accuracy.

RESULTS

We assessed 608 scans from 464 patients. For NI-RADS categories 1, 2, and 3, primary site recurrence rates were 5%, 29%, and 65% with AUC of 0.765, while lymph node recurrence rates were 3%, 10%, and 80% with AUC of 0.820.

CONCLUSIONS

NI-RADS as used by general neuroradiologists is effective in separating head and neck cancers into discrete categories for predicting recurrent disease.

Demographic responses to climate-driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.

Augmenting inter-rater concordance of radiologic extranodal extension in HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma: A multicenter study

OBJECTIVES

To assess intra- and inter-institutional concordance and identify methods to increase precision in radiologic extranodal extension (rENE) ascertainment in HPV+ oropharyngeal carcinoma.

METHODS

Six radiologists, blinded to clinical outcomes, from three centers assessed rENE in two phases: Phase-I (20 cases) utilized each individual's a priori appreciation of the literature. Phase-II (30 additional cases) was performed after deliberating experience and consolidating operating definitions. Intra- and inter-institutional Kappa were calculated at >50% and >75% certainty levels, respectively.

RESULTS

The Phase-I intra-institutional kappa was 0.76, 0.32, and 0.44 at >50% certainty and improved to 0.89, 0.61, and 0.66 at >75% certainty. Inter-institutional Fleiss' kappa also improved with higher certainty (from 0.40 to 0.57, p = 0.039).  The Phase-II inter-rater kappa was significantly higher than Phase-I at the same certainty level (both p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A learning curve exists for rENE assessment. Strategies to augment reliability include high certainty for declaration, consolidated operating definitions, and sharing experience among radiologists.

First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: A pooled self-controlled case series study of 11.6 million individuals in England, Scotland, and Wales

BACKGROUND

Several countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk-benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.

Radiomic Features Associated With HPV Status on Pretreatment Computed Tomography in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Inform Clinical Prognosis

Purpose

There is a lack of biomarkers for accurately prognosticating outcome in both human papillomavirus-related (HPV+) and tobacco- and alcohol-related (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). The aims of this study were to i) develop and evaluate radiomic features within (intratumoral) and around tumor (peritumoral) on CT scans to predict HPV status; ii) investigate the prognostic value of the radiomic features for both HPV- and HPV+ patients, including within individual AJCC eighth edition-defined stage groups; and iii) develop and evaluate a clinicopathologic imaging nomogram involving radiomic, clinical, and pathologic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) prediction for HPV+ patients.

Experimental Design

This retrospective study included 582 OPSCC patients, of which 462 were obtained from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) with available tumor segmentation and 120 were from Cleveland Clinic Foundation (CCF, denoted as S_CCF) with HPV+ OPSCC. We subdivided the TCIA cohort into training (S_T, 180 patients) and validation (S_V, 282 patients) based on an approximately 3:5 ratio for HPV status prediction. The top 15 radiomic features that were associated with HPV status were selected by the minimum redundancy-maximum relevance (MRMR) using S_T and evaluated on S_V. Using 3 of these 15 top HPV status-associated features, we created radiomic risk scores for both HPV+ (RRS_HPV+) and HPV- patients (RRS_HPV-) through a Cox regression model to predict DFS. RRS_HPV+ was further externally validated on S_CCF. Nomograms for the HPV+ population (M_p+RRS) were constructed. Both RRS_HPV+ and M_p+RRS were used to prognosticate DFS for the AJCC eighth edition-defined stage I, stage II, and stage III patients separately.

Results

RRS_HPV+ was prognostic for DFS for i) the whole HPV+ population [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.97, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35-2.88, p < 0.001], ii) the AJCC eighth stage I population (HR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.04-3.83, p = 0.039), and iii) the AJCC eighth stage II population (HR = 3.61, 95% CI: 1.71-7.62, p < 0.001). HPV+ nomogram M_p+RRS (C-index, 0.59; 95% CI: 0.54-0.65) was also prognostic of DFS (HR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.27-2.71, p = 0.001).

Conclusion

CT-based radiomic signatures are associated with both HPV status and DFS in OPSCC patients. With additional validation, the radiomic signature and its corresponding nomogram could potentially be used for identifying HPV+ OPSCC patients who might be candidates for therapy deintensification.

C-STICH2: emergency cervical cerclage to prevent miscarriage and preterm birth-study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Cervical cerclage is a recognised treatment to prevent late miscarriage and pre-term birth (PTB). Emergency cervical cerclage (ECC) for cervical dilatation with exposed unruptured membranes is less common and the potential benefits of cerclage are less certain. A randomised control trial is needed to accurately assess the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss compared to an expectant approach.

Methods

C-STICH2 is a multicentre randomised controlled trial in which women presenting with cervical dilatation and unruptured exposed membranes at 16 + 0 to 27 + 6 weeks gestation are randomised to ECC or expectant management. Trial design includes 18 month internal pilot with embedded qualitative process evaluation, minimal data set and a within-trial health economic analysis.

Inclusion criteria are ≥16 years, singleton pregnancy, exposed membranes at the external os, gestation 16 + 0–27 + 6 weeks, and informed consent. Exclusion criteria are contraindication to cerclage, cerclage in situ or previous cerclage in this pregnancy.

Randomisation occurs via an online service in a 1:1 ratio, using a minimisation algorithm to reduce chance imbalances in key prognostic variables (site, gestation and dilatation). Primary outcome is pregnancy loss; a composite including miscarriage, termination of pregnancy and perinatal mortality defined as stillbirth and neonatal death in the first week of life. Secondary outcomes include all core outcomes for PTB. Two-year development outcomes will be assessed using general health and Parent Report of Children’s Abilities-Revised (PARCA-R) questionnaires. Intended sample size is 260 participants (130 each arm) based on 60% rate of pregnancy loss in the expectant management arm and 40% in the ECC arm, with 90% power and alpha 0.05. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat.

Discussion

To date there has been one small trial of ECC in 23 participants which included twin and singleton pregnancies. This small trial along with the largest observational study (n = 161) found ECC to prolong pregnancy duration and reduce deliveries before 34 weeks gestation. It is important to generate high quality evidence on the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss, and improve understanding of the prevalence of the condition and frequency of complications associated with ECC. An adequately powered RCT will provide the highest quality evidence regarding optimum care for these women and their babies.

Trial registration

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN12981869. Registered on 13th June 2018.

Effectiveness of antenatal corticosteroids at term: Can we trust the data that 'inform' us?

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a cornerstone for the assessment of the effectiveness of interventions. Appropriate randomization, design, sample size, statistical analyses, and conduct that reduces the risk of bias, enhance the chance they will deliver true research findings. The credibility of RCTs is difficult to assess without objective evidence of compliance with Good Clinical Practice standards. Remarkably, no mechanisms are in place both in the initial peer review process and during meta-analysis to assess these, and little guidance on how to assess data where research integrity cannot be confirmed (e.g. where data originated from a setting without established infrastructure or an era preceding current standards). We describe the case of the use of antenatal steroids. When these drugs are used in early preterm birth, their benefits outweigh the harms. However, later in pregnancy, and specifically at term, this balance is less clear. We describe that the four randomised clinical trials that inform clinical practice through the Cochrane meta-analysis, for various reasons, lack clear governance which makes it difficult to verify provenance and reliability of the data. We conclude that transparency and assessment of data credibility need to be inbuilt both at the time of publication and at the time of meta-analysis. This will drive up standards and encourage appropriate interpretation of results and the context from which they were derived.

Adolescents' Understanding of What Causes Emotional Distress: A Qualitative Exploration in a Non-clinical Sample Using Ideal-Type Analysis

Background: There is increased interest in early intervention and prevention of mental health difficulties during adolescence; thus, we are seeing increased efforts to optimize well-being during this epoch. Positive emotional experiences are a central component of overall well-being. However, research exploring what adolescents perceive to be the cause(s) of their emotional difficulties is lacking. Improving understanding of this issue within non-clinical adolescent groups may provide useful insight into how to develop strategies to support young people as they navigate emotional difficulties.

Objectives: The aim of this research was to explore if meaningful categories of perceived cause(s) for emotional distress exist for non-clinical adolescent groups.

Methods: The data for this study were drawn from interviews across 6 sites in England conducted as part of the 5-year national evaluation of the HeadStart Learning Programme. The sample comprised of 32 young people aged 11–12 years from the first annual wave of qualitative data collection in 2017. Ideal type analysis—a qualitative form of person-centered analysis—was used to construct a typology of adolescents perceived cause(s) for emotional distress.

Findings: We identified five distinct categories of perceived cause: (1) perceived lack of control; (2) unfair treatment; (3) others, their actions and judgements as the catalyst; (4) concerns for self and others; and, (5) self as cause.

Conclusions: Our findings illustrate that distinct categories for perceived cause of emotional distress exist among adolescents considered to be “at risk” of developing mental health difficulties, which provides a foundation for future necessary work seeking to investigate the possible link between perceived cause for emotional distress and help-seeking behavior among sub-clinical groups.

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19.

METHODS

We did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19-EAVE II-database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1-adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85-94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75-94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72-89 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).

INTERPRETATION

Mass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19.

METHODS

We did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19-EAVE II-database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1-adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85-94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75-94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72-89 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).

INTERPRETATION

Mass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.

A nearby transiting rocky exoplanet that is suitable for atmospheric investigation

Spectroscopy of transiting exoplanets can be used to investigate their atmospheric properties and habitability. Combining radial velocity (RV) and transit data provides additional information on exoplanet physical properties. We detect a transiting rocky planet with an orbital period of 1.467 days around the nearby red dwarf star Gliese 486. The planet Gliese 486 b is 2.81 Earth masses and 1.31 Earth radii, with uncertainties of 5%, as determined from RV data and photometric light curves. The host star is at a distance of ~8.1 parsecs, has a J-band magnitude of ~7.2, and is observable from both hemispheres of Earth. On the basis of these properties and the planet's short orbital period and high equilibrium temperature, we show that this terrestrial planet is suitable for emission and transit spectroscopy.

Accuracy and Interrater Reliability of CISS Versus Contrast-Enhanced T1-Weighted VIBE for the Presence of Optic Canal Invasion in Tuberculum Sellae Meningiomas

BACKGROUND

The magnetic resonance imaging sequence used to assess optic canal invasion by tuberculum sella meningiomas (TSMs) has not been standardized. Both constructive interference in steady state (CISS) and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted volume-interpolated breath-hold examination (VIBE) sequences are frequently used. The aim of the present study was to compare the accuracy and interrater reliability of these sequences in predicting optic canal invasion by TSMs.

METHODS

In the present retrospective study of 27 patients (54 optic canals) who had undergone endoscopic transtuberculum transplanum resection of TSMs, images from preoperative CISS and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted VIBE sequences were assessed by 5 neuroradiologists who were unaware of the operative findings. The readers evaluated the optic canal in 4 quadrants at 2 locations (the posterior tip of the anterior clinoid process and the optic strut). A quadrant was considered positive for tumor invasion if invasion was present at either of these 2 locations. The reference standard was intraoperative observation of gross optic canal invasion.

RESULTS

The interrater agreement was good for the presence or absence of tumor involvement in a particular quadrant (CISS, 0.635; VIBE, 0.643; 95% confidence interval for the difference, -0.086 to 0.010). The mean sensitivity and specificity for optic nerve invasion were 0.643 and 0.438 with CISS and 0.643 and 0.454 with VIBE, respectively. No significant differences were seen between the sequences in terms of reader accuracy when the intraoperative findings were used as the reference standard.

CONCLUSION

CISS and VIBE sequences both have good accuracy in predicting for optic canal tumor invasion by TMEs.

Patient-specific mental rehearsal with three-dimensional models before low anterior resection: randomized clinical trial

Background

It was hypothesized that preparing for a surgical procedure, taking into account individual patient characteristics, may facilitate the procedure and improve surgical quality. The aim of this study was to compare different case-specific, preoperative mental rehearsal methods before minimally invasive rectal cancer surgery.

Methods

In this RCT, patients were allocated in a 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 ratio to four groups: systematic mental rehearsal (SMR) using MRI scans; SMR and three-dimensional (3D) virtual models; SMR and synthetic 3D printed models; and routine practice (control group). Surgeons operating on all but the control group underwent mental rehearsal with the visual aids, including axial MRI scans of the pelvis, interactive 3D virtual models reconstructed from axial MRIs, and synthetic models, manufactured by 3D printing. Operations were video-recorded and assessed by two experts blinded to allocation using two validated scores, the Competency Assessment Tool (CAT) and Objective Clinical Human Reliability Analysis (OCHRA). The primary outcome of the study was surgical performance, measured by the CAT.

Results

Forty-nine patients were randomized and allocated to the four groups. There were 12 participants in each of the control, MRI and SMR, and virtual and SMR groups, whereas the SMR using physical models and simulation group included 13. No difference was observed between groups in median CAT scores (control 30.50, MRI 34.25, virtual 31.75, physical 34.00; P = 0.748, partial η² <0.001, where _pη² is indicative of effect size) or OCHRA scores (anterior, posterior, right and left lateral planes, transection P>0.200, _pη² =0.052–0.088). Time spent not performing dissection was significantly shorter for the SMR with MRI group than for the control (57.5 versus 42 respectively; P < 0.001, _pη² =0.212).

Conclusion

Mental rehearsal did not affect CAT and OCHRA scores of consultant surgeons. Reference number: ISRCTN 75603704 (https://www.isrctn.com).

Protocol of a study to evaluate a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy

Background

The risk of developing obesity and chronic diseases (e.g. diabetes mellitus) in children is influenced by the mother's lifestyle during pregnancy (prenatal programming). This study evaluates a computer-assisted preventive lifestyle counseling carried out during prenatal visits and infant check-ups. GeMuKi (acronym for 'strengthening health promotion: enhanced check-up visits for mother and child') is a complex intervention consisting of multiple components implemented by different cooperating healthcare providers.

Methods

GeMuKi supplements regular prenatal visits and infant check-ups with an additional counseling regarding physical activity, nutrition and alcohol and tobacco use. Providers, who carry out the counseling, receive communication training using motivational interviewing techniques. Pregnant women in 4 intervention regions in Germany receive GeMuKi from gynecologists, midwives and pediatricians, while participants in the 4 control regions receive standard care. As part of a hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial with 1860 participants, questionnaires are filled in at 4 time points. Weight development and health data of the mother and child are recorded. Health services use will be analyzed using statutory health insurance claims data. Interviews will be conducted to evaluate the implementation process.

Results

Targeted preventive measures at the beginning of pregnancy intend to reduce the risk of inadequate gestational weight gain (primary outcome). Secondary endpoints are amongst others maternal lifestyle, infant weight development and body composition.

Conclusions

GeMuKi is set up as a long-term, low-threshold, multimodal intervention in living environments and existing structures. Findings will add to the evidence on lifestyle interventions during pregnancy to reduce the risk for overweight and obesity. Results will contribute to the prevention of early programming of chronic disease and will inform decisions about scale up and public funding.

Key messages

Lifestyle interventions provided from the beginning of pregnancy intent to be beneficial for the health of both mother and child to prevent obesity and chronic diseases. Low-threshold interventions embedded in regular prenatal visits are accessible for the complete pregnant population, including vulnerable groups.

Peer support program (P-SUP) to strengthen self-management in patients with chronic conditions

Background

Chronic care programmes (CCPs) ensure a standardised, evidence based and structured patient care. In Germany, CCPs are successful in improving quality of care and making care more patient-centred. Regarding self-management support, however, the programs only feature patient education and shared decisions on treatment goals. Peer support has proven to be a successful component in outpatient care to enhance self-management. The aim of this study is to support patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease in conducting successful self-management through a multimodal program.

Methods

This randomized controlled trial (RCT) is set up for 27 months and will include a study population of approximately 1800 patients, beginning in summer 2020. The primary outcome (PO) is the reduction of hospital admissions. In addition to the PO, secondary outcomes include motivational and knowledge-based aspects. Furthermore, health-competitive and health-economic data will be collected. The formative evaluation will review the processes for implementation. The central element of the intervention will be peer support groups, in which the group will participate in physical activities and educational lectures on nutrition, exercise or disease related knowledge. Additionally, a specially designed online platform, personalized feedback for patients on medical outcomes from their family doctors, and regular telephone coaching to increase intrinsic motivation and activation will be provided.

Results

In addition to the primary outcome (reduction of hospital admissions), increased motivation levels, improved quality of life and increased health literacy are expected.

Conclusions

This project, funded by the Federal Joint Committee (establishment of statutory health insurance funds and medical providers in Germany), can serve as a blueprint for future implementations of public health approaches and accessible care models for patients with chronic conditions.

Key messages

Peer support as a successful method to enhance self-management in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease. A multimodal program, consisting of peer support groups, an online platform, personalized medical feedback and telephone coaching, aiming to improve quality of life in patients with chronic conditions.

Implementation and evaluation of a nurse-led decision-coaching program for healthy breast cancer susceptibility gene (BRCA1/2) mutation carriers: a study protocol for the randomized controlled EDCP-BRCA study

Background

Female BRCA mutation carriers have an increased lifetime risk for breast and ovarian cancer compared to the general population. Women who carry this mutation have several options to deal with their cancer risk, such as risk-reducing surgeries or intensified breast cancer screening. Previous research has shown that preferences in this scenario are highly dependent on affected women’s personalities and value systems. To support these women in the decision-making process, a structured decision support consisting of decision coaching combined with a decision aid might be helpful.

Methods/design

A randomized controlled trial will be conducted in order to compare usual care with structured decision support alongside usual care. The decision support program entails nurse-led decision coaching as well as an evidence-based patient decision aid. Nurses are qualified by a 4-day training program in informed decision-making and decision coaching. Six centers for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer in Germany will be included in the study, with a planned sample size of 398 women.

The primary outcome is the congruence between the preferred and the actual played role in the decision-making process as measured by the Control Preferences Scale. It is hypothesized that the structured decision support will enable women to play the preferred role in the decision-making process. Secondary outcomes include the knowledge and attitudes about preventive options, decisional conflict, depression and anxiety, coping self-efficacy, impact of event, and self-concept. A process evaluation will accompany the study.

Discussion

The EDCP-BRCA study is the first study to implement and evaluate decision coaching combined with a decision aid for healthy BRCA mutation carriers worldwide.

Trial registration {2a}

DRKS-ID: DRKS00015527. Registered 30 October 2019.

Association of Gestational Age at Birth With Risk of Perinatal Mortality and Special Educational Need Among Twins

IMPORTANCE

Twin pregnancies account for 3% of live births but experience substantially more perinatal morbidity and mortality than singleton pregnancies. Optimizing the timing of birth is a key strategy in improving twin pregnancy outcomes. Current UK and US policies are based on observational studies of perinatal mortality and not on longer-term effects. The association of timing of birth with long-term childhood outcomes among twins is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal gestation week for birth of twin infants by calculating the week of birth associated with the lowest risk of short-term and long-term adverse outcomes (perinatal mortality and special educational need [SEN] at school).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based, data-linkage cohort study included 43 133 twin infants born at a gestational age of 34 weeks onward between January 1, 1980, and December 31, 2015, in Scotland. The data were analyzed from June 1, 2017, to March 1, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Gestational age (in weeks) at the time of birth.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were extended perinatal mortality and a record of SEN (≥1 of intellectual disabilities, dyslexia, physical or motor impairment, language or speech disorder, autistic spectrum disorder, and social, emotional, or behavioral difficulties) at school (children aged 4-18 years). To infer the consequence of the gestational age at birth, clinical outcomes of twin infants born at each week of gestation from 34 weeks onward were compared with those of twin infants remaining in utero thereafter.

RESULTS

Of the total 43 133 twin infants included in the study, 21 696 (50.3%) were females. Although maternity records were available for all infants, 9519 sex-discordant twin children were linked to their educational data, of whom 1069 (13.8%) had a record of SEN. Compared with twins remaining in utero (n = 26 172), birth at any gestational age from 34 to 37 weeks was associated with increased odds of perinatal death (ie, adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.99; 95% CI, 1.53-2.69 at 36 weeks [n = 8056]) and increased risk of SEN at school (AOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.74, for birth at 36 weeks compared with 37 weeks). In a competing risk analysis, the risks of stillbirth and neonatal death were balanced at 37 weeks (risk difference, 2.05; 95% CI, 0.8-3.3).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that, in the absence of a medical complication, twins should not be routinely delivered before 37 completed weeks of gestation. These findings may help optimize shared decision-making around the timing of twin birth.

An evaluation of the benefits and harms of antenatal corticosteroid treatment for women at risk of imminent preterm birth or prior to elective Caesarean-section: Study protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: Antenatal corticosteroid treatment (ACT) has been widely accepted as a safe, beneficial treatment which improves outcomes following preterm birth. It has been shown to reduce respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal mortality and is commonly used in threatened or planned preterm delivery, as well as prior to elective Caesarean-section at term. There are some concerns however, that in some cases, ACT is used in patients where clinical benefit has not been established, or may potentially increase harm. Many women who receive ACT do not deliver preterm and the long-term consequences of ACT treatment are unclear. This study aims to evaluate the benefits and harms of ACT using latest trial evidence to allow refinement of current practice. Methods: This study will compare ACT with placebo or non-treatment. Inclusion criteria are: Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT) comparing ACT vs. no ACT (with or without placebo) in all settings. Exclusion criteria are: non-randomised or quasi-randomised studies and studies comparing single vs. multiple courses of ACT. Main outcomes are to evaluate, for women at risk of preterm birth or undergoing planned Caesarean- section, the benefits and harms of ACT, on maternal, fetal, newborn, and long-term offspring health outcomes. The individual participant data (IPD) of identified RCTs will be collected and consecutively synthesised using meta-analysis with both a one-stage model where all IPD is analysed together and a two-stage model where treatment effect estimates are calculated for each trial individually first and thereafter pooled in a meta-analysis. Sub-group analysis will be performed to identify heterogeneous effects of ACT across predefined risk groups. Discussion: Co-opt is the Consortium for the Study of Pregnancy Treatments and aims to complete a robust evaluation of the benefits and harms of ACT. This IPD meta-analysis will contribute to this by allowing detailed interrogation of existing trial datasets. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020167312 (03/02/2020).

Effect of sildenafil on maternal hemodynamics in pregnancies complicated by severe early-onset fetal growth restriction: planned subgroup analysis from a multicenter randomized placebo-controlled double-blind trial

OBJECTIVES

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is associated with maternal cardiovascular changes. Sildenafil, a phosphodiesterase type-5 inhibitor, potentiates the actions of nitric oxide, and it has been suggested that it alters maternal hemodynamics, potentially improving placental perfusion. Recently, the Dutch STRIDER trial was stopped prematurely owing to excess neonatal mortality secondary to pulmonary hypertension. The main aim of this study was to investigate the effect of sildenafil on maternal hemodynamics in pregnancies with severe early-onset FGR.

METHODS

This was a cardiovascular substudy within a UK multicenter, placebo-controlled trial, in which 135 women with a singleton pregnancy and severe early-onset FGR (defined as a combination of estimated fetal weight or abdominal circumference below the 10^th centile and absent/reversed end-diastolic flow in the umbilical artery on Doppler velocimetry, diagnosed between 22 + 0 and 29 + 6 weeks' gestation) were assigned randomly to receive either 25 mg sildenafil three times daily or placebo until 32 + 0 weeks' gestation or delivery. Maternal blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), augmentation index, pulse wave velocity (PWV), cardiac output, stroke volume (SV) and total peripheral resistance were recorded before randomization, 1-2 h and 48-72 h post-randomization, and 24-48 h postnatally. For continuous data, analysis was performed using repeated measures ANOVA methods including terms for timepoint, treatment allocation and their interaction.

RESULTS

Included were 134 women assigned randomly to sildenafil (n = 69) or placebo (n = 65) who had maternal BP and HR recorded at baseline. At 1-2 h post-randomization, compared with baseline values, sildenafil increased maternal HR by 4 bpm more than did placebo (mean difference, 5.00 bpm (95% CI, 1.00-12.00 bpm) vs 1.25 bpm (95% CI, -5.38 to 7.88 bpm); P = 0.004) and reduced systolic BP by 1 mmHg more (mean difference, -4.13 mmHg (95% CI, -9.94 to 1.44 mmHg) vs -2.75 mmHg (95% CI, -7.50 to 5.25 mmHg); P = 0.048). Even after adjusting for maternal mean arterial pressure, sildenafil reduced aortic PWV by 0.60 m/s more than did placebo (mean difference, -0.90 m/s (95% CI, -1.31 to -0.51 m/s) vs -0.26 m/s (95% CI, -0.75 to 0.59 m/s); P = 0.001). Sildenafil was associated with a non-significantly greater decrease in SV index after 1-2 h post-randomization than was placebo (mean difference, -5.50 mL/m² (95% CI, -11.00 to -0.50 mL/m² ) vs 0.00 mL/m² (95% CI, -5.00 to 4.00 mL/m² ); P = 0.056).

CONCLUSIONS

Sildenafil in a dose of 25 mg three times daily increases HR, reduces BP and reduces arterial stiffness in pregnancies complicated by severe early-onset FGR. These changes are short term, modest and consistent with the anticipated vasodilatory effect. They have no short- or long-term clinical impact on the mother. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A giant exoplanet orbiting a very-low-mass star challenges planet formation models

Surveys have shown that super-Earth and Neptune-mass exoplanets are more frequent than gas giants around low-mass stars, as predicted by the core accretion theory of planet formation. We report the discovery of a giant planet around the very-low-mass star GJ 3512, as determined by optical and near-infrared radial-velocity observations. The planet has a minimum mass of 0.46 Jupiter masses, very high for such a small host star, and an eccentric 204-day orbit. Dynamical models show that the high eccentricity is most likely due to planet-planet interactions. We use simulations to demonstrate that the GJ 3512 planetary system challenges generally accepted formation theories, and that it puts constraints on the planet accretion and migration rates. Disk instabilities may be more efficient in forming planets than previously thought.

A comparison of the BISAP score and Amylase and BMI (CAB) score versus for predicting severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP)would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of the Change in Amylase And Body mass index (CAB) score and BISAP score for predicting SAP.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 406 with AP were enrolled. The age, gender, body mass index(BMI), blood urea nitrogen determined at the time of admission and serum amylase determined on day 1 and day 2 after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis confirmed that blood urea nitrogen (OR 1.06; 95%CI 1.03-1.09) and percentage change in amylase day 2 (OR 0.75; 95%CI 0.65-0.87) were independently associated with development of SAP. No statistically significant association was observed between BMI (OR 1.04; 95%CI 0.951.13) and severity of acute pancreatitis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Body mass index (BMI), percentage change in amylase day 2, BISAP score and CAB score were 0.57±0.05, 0.68±0.04, 0.84±0.03 and0.53±0.05, respectively.

CONCLUSION

BISAP is more accurate for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis than the CAB score.

Selective RET kinase inhibition for patients with RET-altered cancers

Background

Alterations involving the RET kinase are implicated in the pathogenesis of lung, thyroid and other cancers. However, the clinical activity of multikinase inhibitors (MKIs) with anti-RET activity in RET-altered patients appears limited, calling into question the therapeutic potential of targeting RET. LOXO-292 is a selective RET inhibitor designed to inhibit diverse RET fusions, activating mutations and acquired resistance mutations.

Patients and methods

Potent anti-RET activity, high selectivity, and central nervous system coverage were confirmed preclinically using a variety of in vitro and in vivo RET-dependent tumor models. Due to clinical urgency, two patients with RET-altered, MKI-resistant cancers were treated with LOXO-292, utilizing rapid dose-titration guided by real-time pharmacokinetic assessments to achieve meaningful clinical exposures safely and rapidly.

Results

LOXO-292 demonstrated potent and selective anti-RET activity preclinically against human cancer cell lines harboring endogenous RET gene alterations; cells engineered to express a KIF5B-RET fusion protein -/+ the RET V804M gatekeeper resistance mutation or the common RET activating mutation M918T; and RET-altered human cancer cell line and patient-derived xenografts, including a patient-derived RET fusion-positive xenograft injected orthotopically into the brain. A patient with RET M918T-mutant medullary thyroid cancer metastatic to the liver and an acquired RET V804M gatekeeper resistance mutation, previously treated with six MKI regimens, experienced rapid reductions in tumor calcitonin, CEA and cell-free DNA, resolution of painful hepatomegaly and tumor-related diarrhea and a confirmed tumor response. A second patient with KIF5B-RET fusion-positive lung cancer, acquired resistance to alectinib and symptomatic brain metastases experienced a dramatic response in the brain, and her symptoms resolved.

Conclusions

These results provide proof-of-concept of the clinical actionability of RET alterations, and identify selective RET inhibition by LOXO-292 as a promising treatment in heavily pretreated, multikinase inhibitor-experienced patients with diverse RET-altered tumors.

Caesarean section and risk of autism across gestational age: a multi-national cohort study of 5 million births

Background

The positive association between caesarean section (CS) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be attributed to preterm delivery. However, due to lack of statistical power, no previous study thoroughly examined this association across gestational age. Moreover, most studies did not differentiate between emergency and planned CS.

Methods

Using population-based registries of four Nordic countries and Western Australia, our study population included 4 987 390 singletons surviving their first year of life, which included 671 646 CS deliveries and 31 073 ASD children. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CS, adjusted for gestational age, site, maternal age and birth year. Stratified analyses were conducted by both gestational age subgroups and by week of gestation. We compared emergency versus planned CS to investigate their potential difference in the risk of ASD.

Results

Compared with vaginal delivery, the overall adjusted OR for ASD in CS delivery was 1.26 (95% CI 1.22-1.30). Stratified ORs were 1.25 (1.15-1.37), 1.16 (1.09-1.23), 1.34 (1.28-1.40) and 1.17 (1.04-1.30) for subgroups of gestational weeks 26-36, 37-38, 39-41 and 42-44, respectively. CS was significantly associated with risk of ASD for each week of gestation, from week 36 to 42, consistently across study sites (OR ranged 1.16-1.38). There was no statistically significant difference between emergency and planned CS in the risk of ASD.

Conclusion

Across the five countries, emergency or planned CS is consistently associated with a modest increased risk of ASD from gestational weeks 36 to 42 when compared with vaginal delivery.