SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake and risks of severe COVID-19 disease among people prescribed opioid agonist therapy in Scotland

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence quantifying the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among people with opioid dependence. We examined vaccine uptake and severe disease (admission to critical care or death with COVID-19) among individuals prescribed opioid agonist therapy (OAT).

METHOD

A case-control design was used to examine vaccine uptake in those prescribed OAT compared with the general population, and the association between severe disease and OAT. In both analyses, 10 controls from the general population were matched (to each OAT recipient and COVID-19 case, respectively) according to socio-demographic factors. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RR) for severe disease.

RESULTS

Vaccine uptake was markedly lower in the OAT cohort (dose 1: 67%, dose 2: 53% and dose 3: 31%) compared with matched controls (76%, 72% and 57%, respectively). Those prescribed OAT within the last 5 years, compared with those not prescribed, had increased risk of severe COVID-19 (RR 3.38, 95% CI 2.75 to 4.15), particularly in the fourth wave (RR 6.58, 95% CI 4.20 to 10.32); adjustment for comorbidity and vaccine status attenuated this risk (adjusted RR (aRR) 2.43, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.02; wave 4 aRR 3.78, 95% CI 2.30 to 6.20). Increased risk was also observed for those prescribed OAT previously (>3 months ago) compared with recently (aRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The widening gap in vaccine coverage for those prescribed OAT, compared with the general population, is likely to have exacerbated the risk of severe COVID-19 in this population over the pandemic. However, continued OAT use may have provided protection from severe COVID-19 among those with opioid dependence.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the clinimetric properties of the core outcome measurement instruments for clinical effectiveness trials of nutritional and metabolic interventions in critical illness (CONCISE)

BACKGROUND

CONCISE is an internationally agreed minimum set of outcomes for use in nutritional and metabolic clinical research in critically ill adults. Clinicians and researchers need to be aware of the clinimetric properties of these instruments and understand any limitations to ensure valid and reliable research. This systematic review and meta-analysis were undertaken to evaluate the clinimetric properties of the measurement instruments identified in CONCISE.

METHODS

Four electronic databases were searched from inception to December 2022 (MEDLINE via Ovid, EMBASE via Ovid, CINAHL via Healthcare Databases Advanced Search, CENTRAL via Cochrane). Studies were included if they examined at least one clinimetric property of a CONCISE measurement instrument or recognised variation in adults ≥ 18 years with critical illness or recovering from critical illness in any language. The COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist for systematic reviews of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures was used. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses were used in line with COSMIN guidance. The COSMIN checklist was used to evaluate the risk of bias and the quality of clinimetric properties. Overall certainty of the evidence was rated using a modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Narrative synthesis was performed and where possible, meta-analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 4316 studies were screened. Forty-seven were included in the review, reporting data for 12308 participants. The Short Form-36 Questionnaire (Physical Component Score and Physical Functioning), sit-to-stand test, 6-m walk test and Barthel Index had the strongest clinimetric properties and certainty of evidence. The Short Physical Performance Battery, Katz Index and handgrip strength had less favourable results. There was limited data for Lawson Instrumental Activities of Daily Living and the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria. The risk of bias ranged from inadequate to very good. The certainty of the evidence ranged from very low to high.

CONCLUSIONS

Variable evidence exists to support the clinimetric properties of the CONCISE measurement instruments. We suggest using this review alongside CONCISE to guide outcome selection for future trials of nutrition and metabolic interventions in critical illness.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42023438187). Registered 21/06/2023.

Single Institute Experience Treating Uterine Carcinosarcoma: Outcome Analysis

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Uterine carcinosarcoma (UCS) is rare with a poor prognosis. We report over 10 years' experience, reporting prognostic and predictive factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

MATERIALS/METHODS

Patient, tumor, treatment and relapse characteristics of 168 women with stages I-IVB UCS treated at our institute between 2010 and 2020 were analyzed. OS and DFS at 2 and 5 years were the primary outcomes, estimated with Kaplan-Meier. The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy in the curative cohort was estimated using the log rank test.

RESULTS

Median follow up was 23 months (range 1-137 months). 34% had FIGO stage IA disease, 10% IB, 8% II. 16% IIIA-IIIC1, and 10% IIIC2 and 22% IVB. The overall 2-year OS was 52% and 5-year OS 30%. 2-year OS by FIGO stage were: IA 66%; IB 63%; II 54%; IIIA-IIIC1 54%; IIIC2 45%; IVB 26%. Within the curative cohort who were surgically staged, 2-year DFS was 47% and 5-year was 30%. 2-year DFS were 61% in IA disease, 53% IB, 12% II, 51% IIIA-IIIC1, and 45% IIIC2 and 4% IVB. A greater risk of death was conferred by lack of adjuvant treatment (lack of chemo > lack of radiotherapy). The most common chemotherapy regimen used was Carboplatin Paclitaxel and pelvic radiotherapy 45Gy 25F over 5 weeks. The combination of surgery and chemotherapy +/- radiotherapy significantly improved OS compared to surgery +/- radiotherapy (HR 0.5 with CI 0.3 - 0.9) p<0.05. Radiotherapy improved OS compared to surgery only (HR 0.4 with CI 0.2 - 1.1) p<0.05. Relapse rate in all patients following curative treatment is 72% within year 1 and 86% within year 2 from diagnosis. In 52 patients with stage 1A disease treated with surgery +/- radiotherapy only, 42.4% relapsed, median time to relapse was 8 months from diagnosis. Relapse occurred despite 69.2 % stage 1A patients receiving adjuvant pelvic EBRT and in these patients relapse within the pelvis occurred in 50%.

CONCLUSION

This study constitutes the largest retrospective analyses of long-term mortality outcomes in UCS and confirms poor outcomes despite curative surgery and adjuvant therapy. Most patients relapse within the first year following curative treatment. The use of adjuvant chemotherapy improves OS in all stages. In stage 1A disease 42 % patients relapse locally and distantly. This is an area of controversy and this data would strongly suggest that the addition of adjuvant paclitaxel-carboplatin or cisplatin-doxorubicin chemotherapy to EBRT should be considered in all patients including earliest stage disease.

Single Institute Experience with MRI-Guided Adaptive Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervix Cancer: Long Term Outcomes and Toxicity Analysis

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

We report over 10 years' experience of MRI-guided adaptive brachytherapy (MRIGABT) in locally advanced cervix cancer (LACC).

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 162 patients with LACC FIGO stage IB-IVB were treated at our institute between 2010 and 2020. Treatment consisted of chemoradiotherapy (weekly intravenous cisplatin 40 mg/m², 5 cycles, 1 day per cycle, 45-50.4 Gy external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in 1·8-2 Gy fractions, followed by MRIGABT. Target volume definition and dose reporting for MRIGABT was according to GEC-ESTRO recommendations. MRIGABT dose prescription was according to our institutional practice. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were the primary endpoints. Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated for OS and DFS at 2, 5 and 10-years. Organ-specific late toxicity grade ≥3 (≥G3) (CTCAEv5.0) was reported, alongside rates of bowel fistula, stricture, and perforation. Using logistic regression, we explored the relationship between EQD2 D2cc bladder and ≥G3 genitourinary (GU) toxicity. We compared patient proportions developing ≥ G3 GU toxicity in those who received EQD2 ≥85 Gy versus <85 Gy. We examined the following predictors of ≥G3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity: EQD2 dose (≥65 Gy versus <65 Gy), pre-existing bowel conditions, nodal boost, and extended field EBRT.

RESULTS

Median follow up was 4.7 years (IQR 3.3-7.1 years). Median EBRT dose was 50.4 Gy (IQR 50.4-50.4 Gy); 91% received chemotherapy. Median high-risk clinical target volume (HRCTV) was 23.6 cm3 (IQR 16.6-31.3 cm3). Median doses were as follows; D90 HRCTV 88.9 Gy EQD210 (IQR 84.1-91.3 Gy), median D2cc bladder 81.6 (IQR 76.9-85.7 Gy), rectum 62.2 (IQR 57.9-65.3 Gy), sigmoid 67.4 (IQR 60.8-71.1 Gy), and bowel 55 (IQR 49.9-63.2 Gy), (all EQD23). The 2, 5 and-10-year OS were 98%, 80% and 75%. The 2, 5 and 10-year DFS were 98%, 75% and 60%. Late toxicity ≥G3 was 9% GU, 6% GI and 3% vaginal. There was a significant relationship between EQD2 and ≥G3 GU toxicity (OR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.01-1.25; P = 0.04). When comparing those who received EQD2≥ 85Gy versus <85Gy, higher doses were associated with a greater proportion of ≥G3 GU toxicity (13% vs 6%). No significant predictors of ≥ G3 GI toxicity were observed.

CONCLUSION

We observed excellent LC and OS. A significant relationship was found between EQD2 >85 Gy and bladder toxicity, although ≥G3 toxicity was low. We did not identify predictors of bowel toxicity. New predictors of bowel toxicity are required. Mean EBRT dose, D1.0 cc rectum, sigmoid and bowel are being investigated further.

Neonatal and maternal outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination: a population-based matched cohort study

Understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy on neonatal and maternal outcomes informs clinical decision-making. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study to investigate associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and, separately, COVID-19 vaccination just before or during pregnancy and the risk of adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes among women in Scotland with a singleton pregnancy ending at ≥20 weeks gestation. Neonatal outcomes are stillbirth, neonatal death, extended perinatal mortality, preterm birth (overall, spontaneous, and provider-initiated), small-for-gestational age, and low Apgar score. Maternal outcomes are admission to critical care or death, venous thromboembolism, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and pregnancy-related bleeding. We use conditional logistic regression to derive odds ratios adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics (aORs). We find that infection is associated with an increased risk of preterm (aOR=1.36, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.16-1.59) and very preterm birth (aOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20-3.02), maternal admission to critical care or death (aOR=1.72, 95% CI = 1.39-2.12), and venous thromboembolism (aOR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.47-4.35). We find no evidence of increased risk for any of our outcomes following vaccination. These data suggest SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy is associated with adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes, and COVID-19 vaccination remains a safe way for pregnant women to protect themselves and their babies against infection.

Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scottish neonates 2020-2022: a national, population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine neonates in Scotland aged 0-27 days with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by viral testing; the risk of confirmed neonatal infection by maternal and infant characteristics; and hospital admissions associated with confirmed neonatal infections.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING AND POPULATION

All live births in Scotland, 1 March 2020-31 January 2022.

RESULTS

There were 141 neonates with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection over the study period, giving an overall infection rate of 153 per 100 000 live births (141/92 009, 0.15%). Among infants born to women with confirmed infection around the time of birth, the confirmed neonatal infection rate was 1812 per 100 000 live births (15/828, 1.8%). Two-thirds (92/141, 65.2%) of neonates with confirmed infection had an associated admission to neonatal or (more commonly) paediatric care. Six of these babies (6/92, 6.5%) were admitted to neonatal and/or paediatric intensive care; however, none of these six had COVID-19 recorded as their main diagnosis. There were no neonatal deaths among babies with confirmed infection.

IMPLICATIONS AND RELEVANCE

Confirmed neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection was uncommon over the first 23 months of the pandemic in Scotland. Secular trends in the neonatal confirmed infection rate broadly followed those seen in the general population, although at a lower level. Maternal confirmed infection at birth was associated with an increased risk of neonatal confirmed infection. Two-thirds of neonates with confirmed infection had an associated admission to hospital, with resulting implications for the baby, family and services, although their outcomes were generally good. Ascertainment of confirmed infection depends on the extent of testing, and this is likely to have varied over time and between groups: the extent of unconfirmed infection is inevitably unknown.

A population-based matched cohort study of major congenital anomalies following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection

Evidence on associations between COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies is limited. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study using linked electronic health records from Scotland (May 2020-April 2022) to estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and, separately, SARS-CoV-2 infection between six weeks pre-conception and 19 weeks and six days gestation and the risk of [1] any major congenital anomaly and [2] any non-genetic major congenital anomaly. Mothers vaccinated in this pregnancy exposure period mostly received an mRNA vaccine (73.7% Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and 7.9% Moderna mRNA-1273). Of the 6731 babies whose mothers were vaccinated in the pregnancy exposure period, 153 had any anomaly and 120 had a non-genetic anomaly. Primary analyses find no association between any vaccination and any anomaly (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 1.01, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.83-1.24) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.81-1.22). Primary analyses also find no association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and any anomaly (aOR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.66-1.60) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.57-1.54). Findings are robust to sensitivity analyses. These data provide reassurance on the safety of vaccination, in particular mRNA vaccines, just before or in early pregnancy.

Cohort profile: the ESC EURObservational Research Programme Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (NSTEMI) Registry

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) Registry aims to identify international patterns in NSTEMI management in clinical practice and outcomes against the 2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without ST-segment-elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutively hospitalised adult NSTEMI patients (n = 3620) were enrolled between 11 March 2019 and 6 March 2021, and individual patient data prospectively collected at 287 centres in 59 participating countries during a two-week enrolment period per centre. The registry collected data relating to baseline characteristics, major outcomes (in-hospital death, acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, bleeding, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and 30-day mortality) and guideline-recommended NSTEMI care interventions: electrocardiogram pre- or in-hospital, pre-hospitalization receipt of aspirin, echocardiography, coronary angiography, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, smoking cessation advice, dietary advice, and prescription on discharge of aspirin, P2Y12 inhibition, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, and statin.

CONCLUSION

The EORP NSTEMI Registry is an international, prospective registry of care and outcomes of patients treated for NSTEMI, which will provide unique insights into the contemporary management of hospitalised NSTEMI patients, compliance with ESC 2015 NSTEMI Guidelines, and identify potential barriers to optimal management of this common clinical presentation associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Pregnancy outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in periods dominated by delta and omicron variants in Scotland: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1·1.529) is associated with lower risks of adverse outcomes than the delta (B.1.617.2) variant among the general population. However, little is known about outcomes after omicron infection in pregnancy. We aimed to assess and compare short-term pregnancy outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron infection in pregnancy.

METHODS

We did a national population-based cohort study of women who had SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy between May 17, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022. The primary maternal outcome was admission to critical care within 21 days of infection or death within 28 days of date of infection. Pregnancy outcomes were preterm birth and stillbirth within 28 days of infection. Neonatal outcomes were death within 28 days of birth, and low Apgar score (<7 of 10, for babies born at term) or neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection in births occurring within 28 days of maternal infection. We used periods when variants were dominant in the general Scottish population, based on 50% or more of cases being S-gene positive (delta variant, from May 17 to Dec 14, 2021) or S-gene negative (omicron variant, from Dec 15, 2021, to Jan 31, 2022) as surrogates for variant infections. Analyses used logistic regression, adjusting for maternal age, deprivation quintile, ethnicity, weeks of gestation, and vaccination status. Sensitivity analyses included restricting the analysis to those with first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and using periods when delta or omicron had 90% or more predominance.

FINDINGS

Between May 17, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022, there were 9923 SARS-CoV-2 infections in 9823 pregnancies, in 9817 women in Scotland. Compared with infections in the delta-dominant period, SARS-CoV-2 infections in pregnancy in the omicron-dominant period were associated with lower maternal critical care admission risk (0·3% [13 of 4968] vs 1·8% [89 of 4955]; adjusted odds ratio 0·25, 95% CI 0·14-0·44) and lower preterm birth within 28 days of infection (1·8% [37 of 2048] vs 4·2% [98 of 2338]; 0·57, 95% CI 0·38-0·87). There were no maternal deaths within 28 days of infection. Estimates of low Apgar scores were imprecise due to low numbers (5 [1·2%] of 423 with omicron vs 11 [2·1%] of 528 with delta, adjusted odds ratio 0·72, 0·23-2·32). There were fewer stillbirths in the omicron-dominant period than in the delta-dominant period (4·3 [2 of 462] per 1000 births vs 20·3 [13 of 639] per 1000) and no neonatal deaths during the omicron-dominant period (0 [0 of 460] per 1000 births vs 6·3 [4 of 626] per 1000 births), thus numbers were too small to support adjusted analyses. Rates of neonatal infection were low in births within 28 days of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection, with 11 cases of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 in the delta-dominant period, and 1 case in the omicron-dominant period. Of the 15 stillbirths, 12 occurred in women who had not received two or more doses of COVID-19 vaccination at the time of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy. All 12 cases of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in women who had not received two or more doses of vaccine at the time of maternal infection. Findings in sensitivity analyses were similar to those in the main analyses.

INTERPRETATION

Pregnant women infected with SARS-CoV-2 were substantially less likely to have a preterm birth or maternal critical care admission during the omicron-dominant period than during the delta-dominant period.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Tommy's charity, Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Health Data Research UK, National Core Studies-Data and Connectivity, Public Health Scotland, Scottish Government Health and Social Care, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, National Research Scotland.

Core outcome measures for clinical effectiveness trials of nutritional and metabolic interventions in critical illness: an international modified Delphi consensus study evaluation (CONCISE)

Background

Clinical research on nutritional and metabolic interventions in critically ill patients is heterogenous regarding time points, outcomes and measurement instruments used, impeding intervention development and data syntheses, and ultimately worsening clinical outcomes. We aimed to identify and develop a set of core outcome domains and associated measurement instruments to include in all research in critically ill patients.

Methods

An updated systematic review informed a two-stage modified Delphi consensus process (domains followed by instruments). Measurement instruments for domains considered ‘essential’ were taken through the second stage of the Delphi and a subsequent consensus meeting.

Results

In total, 213 participants (41 patients/caregivers, 50 clinical researchers and 122 healthcare professionals) from 24 countries contributed. Consensus was reached on time points (30 and 90 days post-randomisation). Three domains were considered ‘essential’ at 30 days (survival, physical function and Infection) and five at 90 days (survival, physical function, activities of daily living, nutritional status and muscle/nerve function). Core ‘essential’ measurement instruments reached consensus for survival and activities of daily living, and ‘recommended’ measurement instruments for physical function, nutritional status and muscle/nerve function. No consensus was reached for a measurement instrument for Infection. Four further domains met criteria for ‘recommended,’ but not ‘essential,’ to measure at 30 days post-randomisation (organ dysfunction, muscle/nerve function, nutritional status and wound healing) and three at 90 days (frailty, body composition and organ dysfunction).

Conclusion

The CONCISE core outcome set is an internationally agreed minimum set of outcomes for use at 30 and 90 days post-randomisation, in nutritional and metabolic clinical research in critically ill adults.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04113-x.

More vaquita porpoises survive than expected

In 2018, it was estimated that fewer than 20 of Mexico’s endemic vaquita porpoise Phocoena sinus remained, and the species was declining by 47% yr-1. Entanglement in gillnets is the sole threat to the species, and since the last population size estimate, gillnetting has increased in the small area where most vaquitas remain—a 12 × 24 km area in the Gulf of California near San Felipe, Mexico. We conducted research efforts in 2019 and 2021 in that area to estimate the minimum numbers of adults and calves and look for any signs that vaquitas are unhealthy. Through expert elicitation, we estimated between 7 and 15 unique individuals were seen in 2019 and 5-13 were seen in 2021. Calves were seen in both years, and all vaquitas appeared healthy. Population projections from the last full survey indicated that more vaquitas have survived than expected. We suggest that these surviving adult vaquitas may have learned to avoid entanglement in gillnets. These vaquitas and their calves provide hope that the species can survive. However, given the high levels of illegal gillnetting and the theft of equipment which hindered our monitoring efforts, and with only around 10 individuals remaining, survival can only be assured if vaquita habitat is made gillnet-free.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination rates in pregnant women in Scotland

Population-level data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake in pregnancy and SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes are lacking. We describe COVID-19 vaccine uptake and SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women in Scotland, using whole-population data from a national, prospective cohort. Between the start of a COVID-19 vaccine program in Scotland, on 8 December 2020 and 31 October 2021, 25,917 COVID-19 vaccinations were given to 18,457 pregnant women. Vaccine coverage was substantially lower in pregnant women than in the general female population of 18-44 years; 32.3% of women giving birth in October 2021 had two doses of vaccine compared to 77.4% in all women. The extended perinatal mortality rate for women who gave birth within 28 d of a COVID-19 diagnosis was 22.6 per 1,000 births (95% CI 12.9-38.5; pandemic background rate 5.6 per 1,000 births; 452 out of 80,456; 95% CI 5.1-6.2). Overall, 77.4% (3,833 out of 4,950; 95% CI 76.2-78.6) of SARS-CoV-2 infections, 90.9% (748 out of 823; 95% CI 88.7-92.7) of SARS-CoV-2 associated with hospital admission and 98% (102 out of 104; 95% CI 92.5-99.7) of SARS-CoV-2 associated with critical care admission, as well as all baby deaths, occurred in pregnant women who were unvaccinated at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Addressing low vaccine uptake rates in pregnant women is imperative to protect the health of women and babies in the ongoing pandemic.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

Two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine protection against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths over time: a retrospective, population-based cohort study in Scotland and Brazil

BACKGROUND

Reports suggest that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is decreasing, but whether this reflects waning or new SARS-CoV-2 variants-especially delta (B.1.617.2)-is unclear. We investigated the association between time since two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland (where delta was dominant), with comparative analyses in Brazil (where delta was uncommon).

METHODS

In this retrospective, population-based cohort study in Brazil and Scotland, we linked national databases from the EAVE II study in Scotland; and the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign, Acute Respiratory Infection Suspected Cases, and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection/Illness datasets in Brazil) for vaccination, laboratory testing, clinical, and mortality data. We defined cohorts of adults (aged ≥18 years) who received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and compared rates of severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19 hospital admission or death) across fortnightly periods, relative to 2-3 weeks after the second dose. Entry to the Scotland cohort started from May 19, 2021, and entry to the Brazil cohort started from Jan 18, 2021. Follow-up in both cohorts was until Oct 25, 2021. Poisson regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and vaccine effectiveness, with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

1 972 454 adults received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Scotland and 42 558 839 in Brazil, with longer follow-up in Scotland because two-dose vaccination began earlier in Scotland than in Brazil. In Scotland, RRs for severe COVID-19 increased to 2·01 (95% CI 1·54-2·62) at 10-11 weeks, 3·01 (2·26-3·99) at 14-15 weeks, and 5·43 (4·00-7·38) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. The pattern of results was similar in Brazil, with RRs of 2·29 (2·01-2·61) at 10-11 weeks, 3·10 (2·63-3·64) at 14-15 weeks, and 4·71 (3·83-5·78) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Scotland, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 83·7% (95% CI 79·7-87·0) at 2-3 weeks, to 75·9% (72·9-78·6) at 14-15 weeks, and 63·7% (59·6-67·4) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Brazil, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 86·4% (85·4-87·3) at 2-3 weeks, to 59·7% (54·6-64·2) at 14-15 weeks, and 42·2% (32·4-50·6) at 18-19 weeks.

INTERPRETATION

We found waning vaccine protection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in both Scotland and Brazil, this becoming evident within three months of the second vaccine dose. Consideration needs to be given to providing booster vaccine doses for people who have received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Scottish Government, Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK, Fiocruz, Fazer o Bem Faz Bem Programme; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Examining the effectiveness of Gateway-an out-of-court community-based intervention to reduce recidivism and improve the health and well-being of young adults committing low-level offences: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Young adult offenders represent a third of the UK prison population and are at risk of poor health outcomes including drug and alcohol misuse, self-harm and suicide. Court diversion interventions aim to reduce the negative consequences of formal criminal justice sanctions and focus resources on addressing the root causes of offending. Although diversions are widely used, evidence of their effectiveness has not yet been established. Hampshire Constabulary, working together with local charities, have developed the Gateway programme, an out-of-court intervention aimed at improving the life chances of young adults. Issued as a conditional caution, participants undertake a health and social care needs assessment, attend workshops encouraging analysis of own behaviour and its consequences and agree not to re-offend during the 16-week caution.

METHODS

This is a pragmatic, multi-site, parallel-group, superiority randomised controlled trial with a target sample size of 334. Participants are aged 18-24, reside in Hampshire and Isle of Wight and are being questioned for an eligible low-level offence. Police investigators offer potential participants a chance to receive the Gateway caution, and those interested are also invited to take part in the study. Police officers obtain Stage 1 consent and carry out an eligibility check, after which participants are randomised on a 1:1 basis either to receive Gateway or follow the usual process, such as court appearance or a different conditional caution. Researchers subsequently obtain Stage 2 consent and collect data at weeks 4 and 16, and 1 year post-randomisation. The primary outcome is the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS). Secondary outcomes include health status, alcohol and drug use, recidivism and resource use. The primary analysis will compare the WEMWBS score between the two groups at 12 months.

DISCUSSION

This pioneering trial aims to address the evidence gap surrounding diversion in 18-24-year-olds. The findings will inform law enforcement agencies, third sector organisations, policymakers and commissioners, as well as researchers working in related fields and with vulnerable target populations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register ( ISRCTN 11888938 ).

COVID-19 opens the door for right iliac fossa pain treatment pathway

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risks of surgery and management of common surgical conditions has changed, with greater reliance on imaging and conservative management. The negative appendectomy rate (NAR) in the UK has previously remained high. The aim of this study was to quantify pandemic-related changes in the management of patients with suspected appendicitis, including the NAR.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed at a single high volume centre of consecutive patients aged over five years presenting to general surgery with right iliac fossa pain in two study periods: for two months before lockdown and for four months after lockdown. Pregnant patients and those with previous appendectomy, including right colonic resection, were excluded. Demographic, clinical, imaging and histological data were captured, and risk scores were calculated, stratifying patients into higher and lower risk groups. Data were analysed by age, sex and risk subgroups.

RESULTS

The mean number of daily referrals with right iliac fossa pain or suspected appendicitis reduced significantly between the study periods, from 2.92 before lockdown to 2.07 after lockdown (p<0.001). Preoperative computed tomography (CT) rates increased significantly from 22.9% to 37.2% (p=0.002). The NAR did not change significantly between study periods (25.5% prior to lockdown, 11.1% following lockdown, p=0.159). Twelve (75%) out of sixteen negative appendectomies were observed in higher risk patients aged 16-45 years who did not undergo preoperative CT. The NAR in patients undergoing CT was 0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater use of preoperative CT should be considered in risk stratified patients in order to reduce the NAR.

Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in COVID-19: A New York Metropolitan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with hypercoagulability. We sought to evaluate the demographic and clinical characteristics of cerebral venous thrombosis among patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at 6 tertiary care centers in the New York City metropolitan area.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 13,500 consecutive patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized between March 1 and May 30, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 13,500 patients with COVID-19, twelve had imaging-proved cerebral venous thrombosis with an incidence of 8.8 per 10,000 during 3 months, which is considerably higher than the reported incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis in the general population of 5 per million annually. There was a male preponderance (8 men, 4 women) and an average age of 49 years (95% CI, 36-62 years; range, 17-95 years). Only 1 patient (8%) had a history of thromboembolic disease. Neurologic symptoms secondary to cerebral venous thrombosis occurred within 24 hours of the onset of the respiratory and constitutional symptoms in 58% of cases, and 75% had venous infarction, hemorrhage, or both on brain imaging. Management consisted of anticoagulation, endovascular thrombectomy, and surgical hematoma evacuation. The mortality rate was 25%.

CONCLUSIONS

Early evidence suggests a higher-than-expected frequency of cerebral venous thrombosis among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Cerebral venous thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis of neurologic syndromes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Phase I trial of the MEK inhibitor selumetinib in combination with thoracic radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer

Background

The RAS/RAF/MEK/ERK signalling pathway has a pivotal role in cancer proliferation and modulating treatment response. Selumetinib inhibits MEK and enhances effects of radiotherapy in preclinical studies.

Patients and methods

Single-arm, single-centre, open-label phase I trial. Patients with stage III NSCLC unsuitable for concurrent chemo-radiotherapy, or stage IV with dominant thoracic symptoms, were recruited to a dose-finding stage (Fibonacci 3 + 3 design; maximum number = 18) then an expanded cohort (n = 15). Oral selumetinib was administered twice daily (starting dose 50 mg) commencing 7 days prior to thoracic radiotherapy, then with radiotherapy (6-6.5 weeks; 60-66 Gy/30-33 fractions). The primary objective was to determine the recommended phase II dose (RP2D) of selumetinib in combination with thoracic radiotherapy.

Results

21 patients were enrolled (06/2010-02/2015). Median age: 62y (range 50-73). M:F ratio 12(57%):9(43%). ECOG PS 0:1, 7(33%):14(67%). Stage III 16(76%); IV 5(24%). Median GTV 64 cm³ (range 1-224 cm³). 15 patients comprised the expanded cohort at starting dose. All 21 patients completed thoracic radiotherapy as planned and received induction chemotherapy. 13 (62%) patients received the full dose of selumetinib.In the starting cohort no enhanced radiotherapy-related toxicity was seen. Two patients had dose-limiting toxicity (1x grade 3 diarrhoea/fatigue and 1x pulmonary embolism). Commonest grade 3-4 adverse events: lymphopaenia (19/21 patients) and hypertension (7/21 patients). One patient developed grade 3 oesophagitis. No patients developed grade ≥3 radiation pneumonitis. Two patients were alive at the time of analysis (24 and 26 months follow-up, respectively). Main cause of first disease progression: distant metastases ± locoregional progression (12/21 [57.1%] patients). Six patients had confirmed/suspected pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia.

Conclusion

We report poor outcome and severe lymphopenia in most patients treated with thoracic radiotherapy and selumetinib at RP2D in combination, contributing to confirmed/clinically suspected pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. These results suggest that this combination should not be pursued in a phase II trial.ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT01146756.

Overturning circulation, nutrient limitation, and warming in the Glacial North Pacific

Although the Pacific Ocean is a major reservoir of heat and CO₂, and thus an important component of the global climate system, its circulation under different climatic conditions is poorly understood. Here, we present evidence that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the North Pacific was better ventilated at intermediate depths and had surface waters with lower nutrients, higher salinity, and warmer temperatures compared to today. Modeling shows that this pattern is well explained by enhanced Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC), which brings warm, salty, and nutrient-poor subtropical waters to high latitudes. Enhanced PMOC at the LGM would have lowered atmospheric CO₂-in part through synergy with the Southern Ocean-and supported an equable regional climate, which may have aided human habitability in Beringia, and migration from Asia to North America.

0388 Predictors of Incident Reduced Sleep Efficiency in Community-Dwelling Older Women

Introduction

There is a paucity of longitudinal studies with sleep efficiency (SE) as an outcome measure. Our objective was to examine potential risk factors for incident reduced SE among community-dwelling women in late life.

Methods

We studied 700 women (mean age 82.5 [SD=3.0] years) with a SE ≥70% at the Year 16 (2002-04) visit of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures with a follow-up measure of SE at the Year 20 (2006-08) visit. SE (percentage of time sleeping while in bed) at both visits was measured using a wrist actigraph with data collected for an average of four 24-hour periods. Women were classified as having incident reduced SE if they had SE &lt;70% at Year 20. Logistic regression was used to estimate the associations between potential risk factors (demographics, lifestyle, use of medications, self-reported medical conditions, functional impairment, frailty, mental and physical health) at Year 16 and reduced SE at Year 20. The association of each candidate risk factor with reduced SE at Year 20 was examined in models adjusted for age, clinical site and continuous SE at Year 16. Candidate risk factors with Benjamin Hochberg false-discovery rate q-values &lt;0.10 were included in a final multivariate model.

Results

Among the 700 eligible women, 62 (8.9%) developed incident reduced SE between the Year 16 and Year 20 visits. After adjusting for age, site and baseline SE, antidepressant use [OR=3.06; 95% CI: 1.50-6.25], benzodiazepine use [OR=2.97; 95% CI: 1.30-6.80] and the presence of hypertension [OR=2.83; 95% CI: 1.47-5.45] at Year 16 were independently associated with a higher odds of having reduced SE at follow-up.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that antidepressant use, benzodiazepine use and hypertension are risk factors or markers for the development of reduced sleep efficiency in older women. Future studies are warranted to examine the underlying mechanisms for these associations.

Support

The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) is supported by National Institutes of Health funding. The National Institute on Aging (NIA) provides support under the following grant numbers: R01 AG005407, R01 AR35582, R01 AR35583, R01 AR35584, R01 AG005394, R01 AG027574, and R01 AG027576.

Method Extension Study to Validate Applicability of AOAC Official Method 996.14 Assurance® Polyclonal Enzyme Immunoassay for Detection of Listeria monocytogenes and Related Listeria spp. from Environmental Surfaces: Collaborative Study

Test portions from 3 environmental surface types, representative of typical surfaces found in a food production facility, were analyzed by the Assurance®Listeria Polyclonal Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) culture method for Listeria monocytogenes and related Listeria species. In all cases, naturally contaminated environmental test samples were collected from an actual food production facility by sponge or swab. Test samples from concrete surfaces were collected by both swab and sponge; sponge test samples were collected from rubber surfaces, and swabs were used to sample steel surfaces. Test portions from each surface type were simultaneously analyzed by both methods. A total of 23 collaborators, representing government agencies, as well as private industry in both the United States and Canada, participated in the study. During this study, a total of 550 test portions and controls was analyzed and confirmed, of which 207 were positive and 336 were negative by both methods. Six test portions were positive by culture, but negative by the EIA. Three test portions were negative by culture, but positive by the EIA. Two test portions were negative by EIA and by culture, but confirmed positive when EIA enrichment broths were subcultured to selective agars. The data reported here indicate that the Assurance®Listeria EIA method and the USDA/FSIS culture method are statistically equivalent for detection of L. monocytogenes and related Listeria species from environmental surfaces taken by sponges or swabs.

Method Extension Study to Validate Applicability of AOAC Official Method 997.03 Visual Immunoprecipitate Assay (VIP®) for Listeria monocytogenes and Related Listeria spp. from Environmental Surfaces: Collaborative Study

Test portions from 3 environmental surface types, representative of typical surfaces found in a food production facility, were analyzed by the Visual Immunoprecipitate assay (VIP®) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) culture method for Listeria monocytogenes and related Listeria species. In all cases, naturally contaminated environmental test samples were collected from an actual food production facility by sponge or swab. Test samples from concrete surfaces were collected by both swab and sponge; sponge test samples were collected from rubber surfaces, and swabs were used to sample steel surfaces. Test portions from each surface type were simultaneously analyzed by both methods. A total of 27 laboratories, representing government agencies as well as private industry in both the United States and Canada, participated in the study. During this study, a total of 615 test portions and controls was analyzed and confirmed, of which 227 were positive and 378 were negative by both methods. Nine test portions were positive by culture, but negative by the VIP. Five test portions were negative by culture, but positive by the VIP. Four test portions were negative by VIP and by culture, but confirmed positive when VIP enrichment broths were subcultured to selective agars. The data reported here indicate that the VIP method and the USDA/FSIS culture method are statistically equivalent for detection of L. monocytogenes and related Listeria species from environmental surfaces taken by sponges or swabs.

Marine plastics threaten giant Atlantic Marine Protected Areas

There has been a recent shift in global perception of plastics in the environment, resulting in a call for greater action. Science and the popular media have highlighted plastic as an increasing stressor [1,2]. Efforts have been made to confer protected status to some remote locations, forming some of the world's largest Marine Protected Areas, including several UK overseas territories. We assessed plastic at these remote Atlantic Marine Protected Areas, surveying the shore, sea surface, water column and seabed, and found drastic changes from 2013-2018. Working from the RRS James Clark Ross at Ascension, St. Helena, Tristan da Cunha, Gough and the Falkland Islands (Figure 1A), we showed that marine debris on beaches has increased more than 10 fold in the past decade. Sea surface plastics have also increased, with in-water plastics occurring at densities of 0.1 items m^-3; plastics on seabeds were observed at ≤ 0.01 items m^-2. For the first time, beach densities of plastics at remote South Atlantic sites approached those at industrialised North Atlantic sites. This increase even occurs hundreds of meters down on seamounts. We also investigated plastic incidence in 2,243 animals (comprising 26 species) across remote South Atlantic oceanic food webs, ranging from plankton to seabirds. We found that plastics had been ingested by primary consumers (zooplankton) to top predators (seabirds) at high rates. These findings suggest that MPA status will not mitigate the threat of plastic proliferation to this rich, unique and threatened biodiversity.

Improving rates of overweight, obesity and extreme obesity in New Zealand 4-year-old children in 2010-2016

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of childhood obesity is high in developed countries, and there is a growing concern regarding increasing socio-economic disparities.

OBJECTIVES

To assess trends in the prevalence of overweight, obesity and extreme obesity among New Zealand 4-year olds, and whether these differ by socio-economic and ethnic groupings.

METHODS

A national screening programme, the B4 School Check, collected height and weight data for 75-92% of New Zealand 4-year-old children (n = 317 298) between July 2010 and June 2016. Children at, or above, the 85th, 95th and 99.7th percentile for age and sex adjusted body mass index (according to World Health Organization standards) were classified as overweight, obese and extremely obese, respectively. Prevalence rates across 6 years (2010/11 to 2015/16) were examined by sex, across quintiles of socio-economic deprivation, and by ethnicity.

RESULTS

The prevalence of overweight, obesity and extreme obesity decreased by 2.2 [95% CI, 1.8-2.5], 2.0 [1.8-2.2] and 0.6 [0.4-0.6] percentage points, respectively, between 2010/2011 and 2015/2016. The downward trends in overweight, obesity and extreme obesity in the population persisted after adjustment for sex, ethnicity, deprivation and urban/rural residence. Downward trends were also observed across sex, ethnicity and deprivation groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of obesity appears to be declining in 4-year-old children in New Zealand across all socio-economic and ethnic groups.

Smoking in pregnancy is a key factor for sudden infant death among Māori

AIM

To examine the sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) disparity between Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand.

METHODS

A nationwide prospective case-control study ran from March 2012 to February 2015. Exposure to established SUDI risk factors was analysed to investigate the disparity experienced by Māori. Infant ethnicity was based on mother's ethnicity. Māori ethnicity was prioritised. Non-Māori includes Pacific, Asian, NZ European and Other.

RESULTS

There were 137 cases and 649 controls. The Māori SUDI rate was 1.41/1000 live births compared to 0.53/1000 for non-Māori. Parents/caregivers of 132 cases (96%) and 258 controls (40%) were interviewed. Smoking in pregnancy was associated with an equally increased SUDI risk for Māori (adjusted OR = 8.11, 95% CI = 2.64, 24.93) and non-Māori (aOR = 5.09, 95% CI = 1.79, 14.47), as was bed-sharing (aOR = 3.66, 95% CI = 1.49, 9.00 vs aOR = 11.20, 95% CI = 3.46, 36.29). Bed-sharing prevalence was similar; however, more Māori controls smoked during pregnancy (46.7%) than non-Māori (22.8%). The main contributor relating to increased SUDI risk for Māori/non-Māori infants is the combination of smoking in pregnancy and bed sharing.

CONCLUSION

The association between known SUDI risk factors, including bed sharing and/or smoking in pregnancy and SUDI risk, is the same regardless of ethnicity. Māori infants are exposed more frequently to both behaviours because of the higher Māori smoking rate.

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Targeted lung cancer screening selects individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in populations eligible for lung cancer screening. The aim of this study was to determine whether a brief CV risk assessment, delivered as part of a targeted community-based lung cancer screening programme, was effective in identifying individuals at high risk who might benefit from primary prevention.

METHODS

The Manchester Lung Screening Pilot consisted of annual low dose CT (LDCT) over 2 screening rounds, targeted at individuals in deprived areas at high risk of lung cancer (age 55-74 and 6-year risk ≥1.51%, using PLCO_M2012 risk model). All participants of the second screening round were eligible to take part in the study. Ten-year CV risk was estimated using QRISK2 in participants without CVD and compared to age (±5 years) and sex matched Health Survey for England (HSE) controls; high risk was defined as QRISK2 score ≥10%. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) was assessed on LDCT scans and compared to QRISK2 score.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven percent (n=920/1,194) of screening attendees were included in the analysis; mean age 65.6 ± 5.4 and 50.4% female. QRISK2 and lung cancer risk (PLCO_M2012) scores were correlated (r = 0.26, p < 0.001). Median QRISK2 score was 21.1% (IQR 14.9-29.6) in those without established CVD (77.6%, n = 714/920), double that of HSE controls (10.3%, IQR 6.6-16.2; n = 714) (p < 0.001). QRISK2 score was significantly higher in those with CAC (p < 0.001). Screening attendees were 10-fold more likely to be classified high risk (OR 10.2 [95% CI 7.3-14.0]). One third (33.7%, n = 310/920) of all study participants were high risk but not receiving statin therapy for primary CVD prevention.

DISCUSSION

Opportunistic CVD risk assessment within a targeted lung cancer screening programme is feasible and is likely to identify a very large number of individuals suitable for primary prevention.