Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

New Antenatal Model in Africa and India (NAMAI) study: implementation research to improve antenatal care using WHO recommendations

BACKGROUND

In 2020, an estimated 287 000 women died globally from pregnancy-related causes and 2 million babies were stillborn. Many of these outcomes can be prevented by quality healthcare during pregnancy and childbirth. Within the continuum of maternal health, antenatal care (ANC) is a key moment in terms of contact with the health system, yet it remains an underutilized platform. This paper describes the protocol for a study conducted in collaboration with Ministries of Health and country research partners that aims to employ implementation science to systematically introduce and test the applicability of the adapted WHO ANC package in selected sites across four countries.

METHODS

Study design is a mixed methods stepped-wedge cluster randomized implementation trial with a nested cohort component (in India and Burkina Faso). The intervention is composed of two layers: (i) the country- (or state)-specific ANC package, including evidence-based interventions to improve maternal and newborn health outcomes, and (ii) the co-interventions (or implementation strategies) to help delivery and uptake of the adapted ANC package. Using COM-B model, co-interventions support behaviour change among health workers and pregnant women by (1) training health workers on the adapted ANC package and ultrasound (except in India), (2) providing supplies, (3) conducting mentoring and supervision and (4) implementing community mobilization strategies. In Rwanda and Zambia, a fifth strategy includes a digital health intervention. Qualitative data will be gathered from health workers, women and their families, to gauge acceptability of the adapted ANC package and its components, as well as experience of care. The implementation of the adapted ANC package of interventions, and their related costs, will be documented to understand to what extent the co-interventions were performed as intended, allowing for iteration.

DISCUSSION

Results from this study aim to build the global evidence base on how to implement quality ANC across different settings and inform pathways to scale, which will ultimately lead to stronger health systems with better maternal and perinatal outcomes. On the basis of the study results, governments will be able to adopt and plan for national scale-up, aiming to improve ANC nationally. This evidence will inform global guidance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN, ISRCTN16610902. Registered 27 May 2022. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN16610902.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementing a quality improvement initiative for private healthcare facilities to achieve accreditation: experience from India

BACKGROUND

The Manyata program is a quality improvement initiative for private healthcare facilities in India which provided maternity care services. Under this initiative, technical assistance was provided to selected facilities in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra which were interested in obtaining 'entry level certification' under the National Accreditation Board for Hospitals and Healthcare Providers (NABH) for provision of quality services. This paper describes the change in quality at those Manyata-supported facilities when assessed by the NABH standards of care.

METHODS

Twenty-eight private-sector facilities underwent NABH assessments in the three states from August 2017 to February 2019. Baseline assessment (by program staff) and NABH assessment (by NABH assessors) findings were compared to assess the change in quality of care as per NABH standards of care. The reported performance gaps from NABH assessments were then also classified by thematic areas and suggested corrective actions based on program implementation experience.

RESULTS

The overall adherence to NABH standards of care improved from 9% in the baseline assessment to 80% in the NABH assessment. A total of 831 performance gaps were identified by the NABH assessments, of which documentation issues accounted for a majority (70%), followed by training (19%). Most performance gaps could be corrected either by revising existing documentation or creating new documentation (62%), or by orienting facility staff on various protocols (35%).

CONCLUSION

While the adherence of facilities to the NABH standards of care improved considerably, certain performance gaps remained, which were primarily related to documentation of facility policies and protocols and training of staff, and required corrective actions for the facilities to achieve NABH entry level certification.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does Quality Certification Work? An Assessment of Manyata, a Childbirth Quality Program in India's Private Sector

BACKGROUND

In India, more than 60% of hospital beds are in private facilities, yet several studies have observed suboptimal quality of care in private facilities. We aimed to understand the role of Manyata, a quality improvement initiative in private facilities focused on mentorship and clinical standards, to improve the knowledge and skills of health care providers, their adherence to key childbirth-related clinical practices, and health outcomes for women and newborns.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of Manyata program data collected from 466 private facilities across 3 states (Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh) in India from October 2016 to February 2019. We calculated means and 95% confidence intervals for knowledge and skills assessment, adherence to facility standards was analyzed by calculating the proportion of facilities passing a given quality standard at baseline and endline, and changes in pregnancy outcomes were assessed with autoregression modeling.

RESULTS

From assessments conducted before and after training among providers in Manyata, we observed a significant increase in average knowledge score (6.3 vs. 13.2 of 20) and skill score (8.0 vs. 34.3 of 40). Overall, a significant increase occurred in adherence to clinical standards between baseline and endline assessments (29% vs. 93%). The standards with the greatest improvements were identification and management of eclampsia/preeclampsia, postpartum hemorrhage, and neonatal resuscitation. There were no significant changes over time in absolute rate of reported complications; however, referral rates from private facilities for preeclampsia and newborn sepsis identification and management declined.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis indicates private facilities' adherence to quality standards and nurses' childbirth knowledge and practical skills increased during Manyata. Additional efforts are needed to ensure high-quality care during cesarean deliveries at private facilities. Future studies with rigorous design are required to evaluate the impact of this quality improvement initiative in improving pregnancy outcomes.

Improving quality of intrapartum and immediate postpartum care in public facilities: experiences and lessons learned from Rajasthan state, India

Background

In spite of considerable improvement in maternal and neonatal outcomes over the past decade in India, the current maternal mortality ratio and neonatal mortality rate are far from the Sustainable Development Goal targets due to suboptimal quality of maternity care. A package of interventions for improving quality of intrapartum and immediate postpartum care was co-designed with the Ministry of Health as the Dakshata program and implemented in public sector health facilities in selected districts in the state of Rajasthan of India since June 2015. This article describes the key strategies, interventions, results and challenges from four years of Dakshata program implementation.

Methods

We have conducted secondary analysis of program data (government data) collected from 202 public facilities across 20 districts of Rajasthan state. The data collected between June–August 2015 (baseline) and the data collected between May-August 2019 (latest) were analyzed. The data sources included: facility assessments, service statistics, monthly progress reports.

Results

During the period of program implementation, there were 17,94,249 deliveries accounting for 70% of institutional deliveries in intervention districts. As a result of the intervention, there was a notable increase in competency of health care providers, availability of essential resources, achievement of labour room standards and adherence to evidence-based clinical standards. We also observed reductions in the proportion of referrals for pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal asphyxia by 11, 8 and 3 percentage points respectively. Similarly, data revealed a reduction in stillbirth rates in Dakshata intervention facilities (19.3 vs 15.3) compared to non-Dakshata facilities (21.8 vs 18).

Conclusions

Our experience and findings indicate that the quality of intrapartum and immediate postpartum care can be improved in low- and middle-income countries with the approach presented in this paper.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04888-5.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global inequity in COVID-19 vaccination coverage among health and care workers

BACKGROUND

Health and care workers (HCWs) are at the forefront of COVID-19 response, at high risk of infection, and as a result they are a priority group for COVID-19 vaccination. This paper presents the global patterns in COVID-19 vaccination coverage among HCWs in 2021, how HCWs were prioritized, and identifies factors associated with the early vaccination coverage.

METHODS

Using monthly data reported to the World Health Organization, the percentages of partially and fully vaccinated HCWs were computed. The rates of vaccination of HCWs for the first and second half of 2021 were compared in a stratified analysis using several factors. A multivariate analysis was used to investigate the independent associations of these factors with the percentage of HCWs fully vaccinated.

RESULTS

Based on data from 139 Member States, as of end of 2021, 82% HCWs were reported as fully vaccinated with important variations by income groups: 33% for low income countries, 83% for lower-middle income countries, 79% for upper-middle income countries and 88% for high income countries. Overall 76% of countries did not achieve 70% vaccination coverage of their HCWs in the first half of 2021, and 38% of countries by end of 2021. Compared with the general population, the rate of HCWs full vaccination was 3.5 times higher, in particular for low income countries (RR = 5.9). Stratified analysis showed that beyond income group, the availability of vaccine doses was a critical factor of HCWs vaccination coverage with medians of 59.1% and 88.6% coverage in the first and second half of 2021, respectively for countries with enough doses to cover 70% of their population, compared with 0.8% and 47.5% coverage, respectively for countries with doses to cover 40% of their population. The multivariate analysis confirmed this observation with a 35.9% overall difference (95%CI 15.1%; 56.9%) between these two groups.

CONCLUSION

Despite being considered a priority group, more than a third of countries did not achieve 70% vaccination coverage of their HCWs at the end of 2021. Large inequities were observed with low income countries lagging behind. Additional efforts should be dedicated to ensure full protection of HCWs through vaccination.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the health workforce requirements and costing to reach 70% COVID-19 vaccination coverage by mid-2022: a modelling study and global estimates

OBJECTIVES

The implementation of COVID-19 vaccination globally poses unprecedented stress to health systems particularly for countries with persisting health workforce shortages prior the pandemic. The present paper estimates the workforce requirement to reach 70% COVID-19 vaccination coverage in all countries by mid-2022 using service target-based estimation.

METHODS

Health workforce data from National Health Workforce Accounts and vaccination coverage reported to WHO as of January 2022 were used. Workload parameters were used to estimate the number of health workers needed with a service target-based approach, the gap and the scale-up required partially accounting for countries' challenges, as well as the associated costs in human resources.

RESULTS

As of 1 January 2022, only 34 countries achieved 70% COVID-19 vaccination coverage and 61 countries covered less than a quarter of their population. This analysis showed that 1 831 000 health workers working full time would be needed to reach a global coverage of 70% COVID-19 vaccination by mid-2022. To avoid severe disruptions to health system, 744 000 additional health workers should be added to domestic resources mostly (77%) in low-income countries. In a sensitivity analysis, allowing for vaccination over 12 months instead of 6 months would decrease the scale-up to 476 000 health workers. The costing for the employment of these 744 000 additional health workers is estimated to be US$2.5 billion. In addition to such a massive scale-up, it is estimated that 29 countries would have needed to redeploy more than 20% of their domestic workforce, placing them at serious risk of not achieving the mid-year target.

CONCLUSION

Reaching 70% global coverage with COVID-19 vaccination by mid-2022 requires extraordinary efforts not before witnessed in the history of immunisation programmes. COVID-19 vaccination programmes should receive rapid and sustainable investment in health workforce.

The global health workforce stock and distribution in 2020 and 2030: a threat to equity and 'universal' health coverage?

Objective

The 2016 Global Strategy on Human Resources for Health: Workforce 2030 projected a global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. This article provides an assessment of the health workforce stock in 2020 and presents a revised estimate of the projected shortage by 2030.

Methods

Latest data reported through WHO’s National Health Workforce Accounts (NHWA) were extracted to assess health workforce stock for 2020. Using a stock and flow model, projections were computed for the year 2030. The global health workforce shortage estimation was revised.

Results

In 2020, the global workforce stock was 29.1 million nurses, 12.7 million medical doctors, 3.7 million pharmacists, 2.5 million dentists, 2.2 million midwives and 14.9 million additional occupations, tallying to 65.1 million health workers. It was not equitably distributed with a 6.5-fold difference in density between high-income and low-income countries. The projected health workforce size by 2030 is 84 million health workers. This represents an average growth of 29% from 2020 to 2030 which is faster than the population growth rate (9.7%). This reassessment presents a revised global health workforce shortage of 15 million health workers in 2020 decreasing to 10 million health workers by 2030 (a 33% decrease globally). WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions’ shortages are projected to decrease by only 7% and 15%, respectively.

Conclusions

The latest NHWA data show progress in the increasing size of the health workforce globally as more jobs are and will continue to be created in the health economy. It however masks considerable inequities, particularly in WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions, and alarmingly among the 47 countries on the WHO Support and Safeguards List. Progress should be acknowledged with caution considering the immeasurable impact of COVID-19 pandemic on health workers globally.

Implementation of a large-scale breast cancer early detection program in a resource-constrained setting: real-world experiences from 2 large states in India

Background

The Breast Health Initiative (BHI) was launched to demonstrate a scalable model to improve access to early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.

Methods

A package of evidence‐based interventions was codesigned and implemented with the stakeholders, as part of the national noncommunicable disease program, through the existing primary health care system. Data from the first 18 months of the BHI are presented.

Results

A total of 108,112 women received breast health education; 48% visited the health facilities for clinical breast examination (CBE), 3% had a positive CBE result, and 41% were referred to a diagnostic facility. The concordance of CBE findings between health care providers and adherence to follow‐up care improved considerably, with more women visiting the diagnostic facilities and completing diagnostic evaluation within 1 month from initial screening, and with only 9% lost to follow‐up. The authors observed a clinically meaningful decrease in time to complete diagnostic evaluation with biopsy, from 37 to 9 days.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing a large‐scale, decentralized breast cancer early detection program delivered through the existing primary health care system in India.

This article presents the key strategies, interventions, and results from the first 18 months of the large‐scale, decentralized breast cancer early detection program in a real‐world setting in India.

Designing a resource-stratified, phased implementation strategy for breast health care services in India

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in India. Jhpiego, a not-for-profit health organization, is providing technical assistance for developing an evidence-based model of breast health care in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand in India.

METHODS

A situational assessment of breast health care services using validated tools was conducted in the 2 states.

RESULTS

Findings of the assessment were presented to the Breast Health Technical Advisory Committee comprised of subject experts and government functionaries. The committee, guided by Breast Health Global Initiative resource-stratified guidelines, developed a conceptual framework for integration of breast health services into the existing health system. This conceptual framework was presented to the Technical Advisory Groups (TAGs) of the respective state governments. Each TAG then developed an operationally feasible, contextually appropriate implementation plan in alignment with the national guidelines for noncommunicable diseases. This implementation plan guided the rollout of the breast health care program in the Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh) and Ranchi (Jharkhand) districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Early results from the implementation suggest that it is feasible to integrate the breast health care pathway with the ongoing National Cancer Control Program of India.

Quality of maternity care provided by private sector healthcare facilities in three states of India: a situational analysis

BACKGROUND

Better quality of care around the time of childbirth can significantly improve maternal and newborn survival. In countries like India, where the private sector contributes to a considerable proportion of institutional deliveries, it is important to assess the quality of maternity care offered by private sector healthcare facilities. This study seeks to fill that information gap by analysing baseline assessments conducted for the Manyata program, which aims to improve the quality of maternity care at private facilities.

METHODS

An observation checklist based on 16 clinical standards endorsed by the Federation of Obstetric and Gynaecological Societies of India (FOGSI) was used to assess 201 private sector healthcare facilities in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh. Data on facility characteristics came from profiles completed when facilities enrolled in Manyata. Differences in the mean number of standards met were analysed by facility characteristics and the availability of essential supplies.

RESULTS

Around half (47.1%) of all nursing staff engaged in maternity care services at these private healthcare facilities were under qualified. The mean number of clinical standards met by facilities was 3.2 (SD 2.4). Facilities with a monthly delivery load between 20 and 50 met a significantly higher number of standards, as did facilities that had more than 70% of essential supplies available. Both these factors were also significant in a multiple linear regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall quality of maternity care in private healthcare facilities is poor in all three states, especially for clinical standards related to management of complications.

A study of the health profile of rubber plantation workers in rural Kerala

Background: The state of Kerala produces nearly 90% of India’s natural rubber output. Rubber plantation workers are vulnerable to a variety of health hazards and being in the unorganized sector, do not enjoy the benefits that their counterparts in organized sector enjoy. Hence, monitoring of their health needs to be done periodically.Aims and Objectives: 1. To assess the health status and common illnesses of rubber plantation workers. 2. To detect the prevalence of non-communicable diseases like diabetes and hypertension among rubber plantation workers.Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted amongst 154 rubber plantation workers in Pathanamthitta District in the state of Kerala, India in September 2014. Data was collected using a predesigned pretested and semistructured questionnaire containing items to assess the socio-demographic profile, their medical history and individual hazard exposure. Data was analysed in SPSS Version 16.Results: Chemical exposure was the most common hazard reported by rubber plantation workers (70.1%). The most common health complaints were musculoskeletal (66.2%), respiratory (31.2%), dermatological (26.6%) and ophthalmological disorders (22.7%). 20.1% prevalence of diabetes and 29.9% prevalence of hypertension was detected among study subjects; awareness and treatment seeking behaviour was poor.Conclusions: Proper health and safety training of rubber plantation workers on workplace hazards and ergonomics is essential to reduce work-related morbidities. Efforts should be made to enhance their access to healthcare and provide periodic health checkups.Asian Journal of Medical Sciences Vol. 7(3) 2016 103-107

Isoforms, expression, glycosylation, and tissue distribution of CTL2/SLC44A2

Antibodies to the solute carrier protein, CTL2/SLC44A2, cause hearing loss in animals, are frequently found in autoimmune hearing loss patients, and are implicated in transfusion-related acute lung injury. We cloned a novel CTL2/SLC44A2 isoform (CTL2 P1) from inner ear and identified an alternate upstream promoter and exon 1a encoding a protein of 704 amino acids which differs in the first 10-12 amino acids from the known exon 1b isoform (CTL2 P2; 706 amino acids). The expression of these CTL2/SLC44A2 isoforms, their posttranslational modifications in tissues and their localization in HEK293 cells expressing rHuCTL2/SLC44A2 were assessed. P1 and P2 isoforms with differing glycosylation are variably expressed in cochlea, tongue, heart, colon, lung, kidney, liver and spleen suggesting tissue specific differences that may influence function in each tissue. Because antibodies to CTL2/SLC44A2 have serious pathologic consequences, it is important to understand its distribution and modifications. Heterologous expression in X. laevis oocytes shows that while human CTL2-P1 does not transport choline, human CTL2-P2 exhibits detectable choline transport activity.

Antibodies to HSP-70 in normal donors and autoimmune hearing loss patients

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate serum antibody to heat shock protein (HSP) 70 as a marker for autoimmune sensorineural hearing loss (AISNHL).

DESIGN

Sera from 20 patients with rapidly progressive sensorineural HL and 20 control volunteers without HL were tested for antibody reactivity against multiple HSP 70 substrates. Substrates included recombinant human HSP (rHuHSP) 72, purified bovine brain heat shock cognate (HSC) 73 and HSP 72, as well as heat-shocked and non-heat-shocked protein extracts from bovine kidney (MDBK) cells. All serum donors were previously tested for antibody to guinea pig inner ear supporting cells; 17 of 20 patients but none (0 of 20) of the controls were positive.

METHODS

Sera were tested using Western blots.

RESULTS

Reactivity with rHuHSP 70 was observed in 16 patients and 17 controls. Similarly, 15 of 20 patients and 17 of 20 controls stained for both HSP 72 and HSC 73 from the bovine brain. When tested against the heat-shock-induced and control MDBK extracts, six patients and nine controls had greater reactivity with the induced HSP 72.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of antibodies to HSP substrates did not differ in patients and controls. Prior studies reported that HSP 72 is the 68 kD antigen commonly detected by AISNHL sera. However, we show that HSP 72 antibodies are no more prevalent in patients than in normal controls. Thus, it is unlikely that the 68 kD protein is HSP 72. Therefore, HSPs are not appropriate substrates for serodiagnosis of AISNHL.

KHRI-3 monoclonal antibody-induced damage to the inner ear: antibody staining of nascent scars

Intracochlear infusion of the KHRI-3 monoclonal antibody results in in vivo binding to guinea pig inner ear supporting cells, loss of hair cells and hearing loss. To further characterize the basis for KHRI-3-induced hearing loss, antibody was produced in a bioreactor in serum-free medium, affinity purified, and compared to conventionally prepared antibody by infusion into the scala tympani using mini-osmotic pumps. In vivo antibody binding was observed in 10 of 11 guinea pigs. A previously unreported pattern of KHRI-3 antibody binding to cells involved in scar formation was noted in five guinea pigs. All but one of the KHRI-3-infused animals demonstrated a hearing loss of > 10 dB in the treated ear. In five of 11 animals the threshold shift was 30 dB or more, and all had hair cell losses. In one guinea pig infused with 2 mg/ml of antibody, the organ of Corti was absent in the basal turn of the infused ear. This ear had a 45-50 dB threshold shift but, curiously, no detectable antibody binding in the residual organ of Corti. Organ of Corti tissue was fragile in antibody-infused ears. Breaks within the outer hair cell region occurred in 5/11 infused ears. The contralateral ears were normal except for one noise-exposed animal that demonstrated hair cell loss in the uninfused ear. Three animals were exposed to 6 kHz noise (108 dB) for 30 min on day 7. Antibody access to the organ of Corti may be increased in animals exposed to noise, since the strongest in vivo binding was observed in noise-exposed animals. Loss of integrity of the organ of Corti seems to be the primary mechanism of inner ear damage by KHRI-3 antibody. The binding of KHRI-3 antibody in new scars suggests a role of the antigen in scar formation. Antibodies with binding properties similar to KHRI-3 have been detected in 51% of patients diagnosed with autoimmune sensorineural hearing loss; thus, it seems likely that such autoantibodies also may have pathologic effects resulting in hearing loss in humans.

Human autoantibodies and monoclonal antibody KHRI-3 bind to a phylogenetically conserved inner-ear-supporting cell antigen

Autoimmunity is thought to be one cause of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL). Sera from patients with rapidly progressive hearing loss have been shown to contain antibodies to a 68-kD protein in heterologous inner-ear tissue. Using guinea pig inner-ear tissue as the antigenic substrate and either Western blot or immunofluorescence (IF) or both, we tested sera from 74 patients suspected to have autoimmune hearing loss for inner-ear antibodies. Sera from 73 patients were tested by Western blot, and sera from 36 were tested by IF. Thirty-seven of 73 (51%) had antibody to a 68-70-kD protein by Western blot. Sera positive by IF stained supporting cells with a staining pattern like that previously observed with the KHRI-3 monoclonal antibody. There was concordance between Western blot and IF assays. Of 36 patients tested by both assays, 29/31 (94%) that were positive in Western blot were also positive by IF, three were negative by both tests, and two each were positive by one assay but negative by the other. Absorption of patient sera with human inner-ear tissue removed antibody reactivity to the guinea pig supporting cells, indicating that the antigen detected by the autoantibody is also present in the human inner ear. Absorption with an equal volume of white or red blood cells from the tissue donor did not remove the antibody reactivity to inner ear, showing that the absorption by inner-ear tissue is specific. Sera from three patients positive in both assays also stained a 68-70-kD inner-ear protein immunoprecipitated by the KHRI-3 monoclonal antibody, indicating that the monoclonal and human antibodies recognize the same antigen. The results support the hypothesis that patients with autoimmune sensorineural hearing loss produce autoantibodies to an inner-ear supporting cell antigen that is phylogenetically conserved and defined by the murine monoclonal antibody KHRI-3. Since KHRI-3 can induce hearing loss after infusion into the inner ear, it is likely that autoantibodies with the same antigenic target are also pathogenic in humans.

In vivo binding and hearing loss after intracochlear infusion of KHRI-3 antibody

The IgG1 mouse monoclonal antibody (MAb) KHRI-3, binds to an antigen of 65-68 kDa expressed on inner ear supporting cells in guinea pigs. We previously showed [Nair et al. (1995) Monoclonal antibody induced hearing loss. Hear. Res. 83, 101-113] that mice carrying the KHRI-3 hybridoma develop high frequency hearing loss and loss of hair cells in the basal turn suggesting that this MAb causes immune-mediated sensorineural hearing loss. To evaluate the specificity of this effect, sterile KHRI-3 and control IgG1 preparations were infused directly into the guinea pig cochlea using Alzet mini-osmotic pumps. Assessments included: (1) hearing, measured by click auditory brain stem responses (ABRs); (2) in vivo antibody binding; and (3) the structural integrity of the organ of Corti. Nine animals were infused with KHRI-3 preparations and 5 controls were infused with control IgG1. Four guinea pigs given KHRI-3 developed 25-55 dB hearing loss. Control animals showed no difference from baseline. In vivo binding of KHRI-3 was detected in the organ of Corti in 6 of the 9 animals, including all 4 that had hearing loss. No staining was observed with control antibody. Confocal microscopy revealed that the in vivo KHRI-3 antibody binding pattern was identical to that obtained by incubating fixed tissue in vitro with KHRI-3. Histologic examination revealed an increased frequency of hair cell loss in KHRI-3 treated ears when compared to either the contralateral ears of the same guinea pigs or the IgG1 treated ears of control animals. The lesions in the infused ears of guinea pigs were scattered throughout the cochlea from base to apex. These experiments demonstrate the following points: (1) Antibodies can be chronically infused directly into the cochlea of living animals. (2) The KHRI-3 antibody binds to live supporting cells within the organ of Corti. (3) Infusion of an inner ear specific antibody affects auditory function. (4) The infusion of irrelevant antibody had no effect on the structure or function of the ear. This system provides an animal model for further studies of antibody-induced sensorineural hearing loss.

Beta 4 integrin transfection of UM-UC-2 (human bladder carcinoma) cells: stable expression of a spontaneous cytoplasmic truncation mutant with rapid loss of clones expressing intact beta 4

The alpha 6 beta 4 integrin is a component of the hemidesmosome, the anchoring structure in the basal membrane of epithelial cells. alpha 6 beta 4 expression is frequently altered in neoplastic cells. It is sometimes lost and sometimes overexpressed, which suggests that disruption of normal function is involved in neoplastic transformation. To examine the effect of this integrin on the growth and behavior of malignant cells that have lost beta 4, we transfected a full-length beta 4 cDNA into the UM-UC-2 cell line that expresses alpha 6 but not beta 4. Although large numbers of clones were obtained when a control vector was used in the transfection, only 12 clones could be isolated that expressed beta 4. Of these, only two beta 4-positive clones, clones 8 and 11, persisted long enough for further study. Clone 8 cells initially expressed beta 4, but within 2 weeks, all positive cells were lost from the culture. Clone 11 persisted in culture and retained strong surface expression of alpha 6 beta 4. Biochemical analysis and Western blotting revealed that this clone contained a truncated form of beta 4 that had lost the distal cytoplasmic domain. We conclude that expression of wild-type beta 4 in UM-UC-2 inhibits cell growth, presumably by an integrin-mediated signaling pathway. Clone 11 escaped from normal signaling because the cytoplasmic domain, a region essential for basal polar localization, was lost. The alpha 6 beta 4 integrin appears to have tumor suppressor activity in epithelial tumors.

Monoclonal antibody induced hearing loss

Monoclonal antibodies KHRI-3 and KHRI-5 identify antigens expressed on inner ear supporting cells and auditory hair cells respectively. To determine if these antibodies affect inner ear function groups of syngeneic Balb/c mice were inoculated with hybridomas KHRI-3, KHRI-5 and other Ig-secreting hybridomas. Hybridomas UM-A9, UM-7F11, the non-secreting SP2/0 myeloma and mice with no hybridoma were used as controls. Animals were tested for auditory brainstem responses (ABR) for frequencies of 4, 8, 16 and 24 kHz, before the inoculation of the hybridomas and at intervals of 6 to 10 days thereafter or daily once tumors became palpable. In normal mice there were no changes in ABR thresholds over the course of the experiment. Other control animals showed little change in ABR even when the growth of the hybridoma or myeloma tumors were far advanced. Of the KHRI-5 hybridoma bearing animals only one of seven animals exhibited threshold shifts greater than 15 dB. In contrast, most mice bearing the KHRI-3 hybridoma exhibited high frequency threshold shifts of 40-50 dB that coincided temporally with the growth of the hybridoma, the presence of circulating KHRI-3 antibody, and greatly increased immunoglobulin titers. Ears from KHRI-3-bearing mice that developed high frequency hearing loss also had a novel type of lesion in the basal turn of the cochlea that was characterized by loss of outer hair cells and absence of typical supporting cell scars. Such changes were not found in control hybridoma-bearing mice. These findings suggest that KHRI-3 antibody has an effect on hearing that is secondary to damage to the organ of Corti and loss of outer hair cells. Our results have important implications for antibody-mediated mechanisms of hearing loss and provide an animal model in which to study this phenomenon.

Blood group antigens and integrins as biomarkers in head and neck cancer: is aberrant tyrosine phosphorylation the cause of altered alpha 6 beta 4 integrin expression?

Head and neck cancer is a capricious disease that varies greatly in its clinical behavior. The development of biomarkers that can distinguish between biologically aggressive and indolent tumors has been a long term goal of our laboratories. Predictive markers applicable to biopsy specimens should facilitate clinical management through early identification of patients at greatest risk for early relapse or metastatic spread. Two prominent cell surface markers that we identified by raising monoclonal antibodies to squamous cell carcinomas are blood group antigens and the A9 antigen/alpha 6 beta 4 integrin. Both of these markers are abnormally displayed in squamous cancers of the head and neck and serve as indicators of early relapse. Loss of blood group antigen expression is a stronger single indicator than is overexpression of the alpha 6 beta 4 integrin. However, use of both markers together is a stronger predictive indicator than is either alone. We know little about the function of the blood group antigens in squamous cells except that the mature antigens are associated with differentiation. Similarly, the function of the alpha 6 beta 4 integrin is also not fully understood. Integrin alpha 6 beta 4 is thought to serve as an extracellular matrix receptor, but its ligand has not been confirmed. In resting epithelium, the alpha 6 beta 4 integrin is polarized to the basal aspect of the basal cell as a component of the hemidesmosome, the anchoring structures of the epithelia. This basal polarization is lost in migrating normal squamous cells and squamous carcinomas. Tyrosine phosphorylation of the beta 4 subunit is absent or greatly reduced in malignant cells and this may be a critical signal for subcellular localization of alpha 6 beta 4 and cell anchoring. On the basis of our current experimental results, we postulate that tyrosine phosphorylation of the beta 4 subunit is a reversible signal that regulates cell migration in normal and malignant cells, and may therefore be an important initial event in the metastatic cascade.

Monoclonal antibodies to inner ear antigens: II. Antigens expressed in sensory cell stereocilia

To develop biological reagents for investigating structure-function relationships in the organ of Corti, we have raised monoclonal antibodies, (MAb) to inner ear tissues. Our first series of antibodies prepared after intrasplenic immunization of mice with guinea pig tissues, identified antigens restricted to supporting cell structures, but no hair cell specific antibodies were developed [Zajic et al., Hear. Res. 52, 59-72, 1991]. In this report we describe the isolation, binding specificity and initial characterization of the stereocilia-binding monoclonal antibodies, KHRI-4, and KHRI-5. Mice were immunized with avian, amphibian and mammalian sensory hair cell-containing tissues and antibodies were screened for selective binding to cochlear extracts in ELISA. In the inner ear, KHRI-4 and KHRI-5 bind specifically to stereocilia in both avian and mammalian cochlear and vestibular tissue preparations using immunofluorescence and immunoperoxidase assays. In other tissues only certain cells of mesothelial origin, such as smooth muscle in gut and the arteriolar vasculature, were stained by KHRI-4 indicating that the antigenic structure defined by this antibody has limited distribution. KHRI-5 binding could be detected in other tissues only at high antibody concentrations suggesting that the gene product identified by this antibody is also weakly expressed in other cell lineages. Western blot analysis showed that KHRI-4 and -5 detect different protein complexes. KHRI-4 identifies an antigenic structure common to gut, cochlea, vestibular tissue and cultured fibroblasts consisting of a approximately 195 and a 230 kDa heterodimer designated p195/230. KHRI-5 binds to a prominent approximately 200-210 kDa band in Western blots of cochlear tissues, gut and fibroblasts. In immunoprecipitation experiments, KHRI-5 precipitated three proteins of Mr approximately 200-210, 230 and 260 kDa indicating that the approximately 200-210 kDa protein carrying the epitope for this antibody is a member of a heterotrimer complex. Our results show that these protein complexes are structural components of stereocilia and that the same proteins are arrayed in conjunction with the actin stress fibers of cultured mesothelial cells. Thus, they are likely to be important for maintaining the actin structure of stereocilia essential to transduction in sensory hair cells.

Monoclonal antibodies to inner ear antigens: I. Antigens expressed by supporting cells of the guinea pig cochlea

Murine monoclonal antibodies against guinea pig cochlear epithelium were generated with the goal of identifying cochlea-specific antigens and elucidating their function. To compensate for the limited amount of cochlear tissue, intrasplenic immunization was used. Hybridoma supernatants were screened by ELISA for antibody production and for binding to homogenates from cochlea, liver, lung, kidney and brain. Hybrids producing antibody to cochlea were subcloned and tested immunocytochemically against frozen sections and surface preparations of paraformaldehyde-fixed cochlear tissue. KHRI-1, a low titer IgM antibody stained only Hensen cells. KHRI-2, also an IgM antibody, stained tectorial membrane, cells of the spiral limbus, cells bordering the space of Nuel, Hensen cells and the root cells of the spiral prominence. KHRI-3, an IgG1 antibody, stained the phalangeal processes of outer pillar cells and the apical portion of phalangeal processes of Deiters' cells in a distinctive wine goblet pattern on surface preparations. KHRI-3 antibody also reacted with peripheral nerves and pia mater of brain in unfixed frozen sections but the antigenic site was not stable to fixation in contrast to the epitope detected in the cochlea. In Western blots of detergent extracts from cochlea KHRI-3 stained a broad tissue-specific band of Mr 70-75 kDa; a narrower band of Mr 68-70 kDa was identified by KHRI-3 in extracts of tongue and brain. KHRI-1 and KHRI-2 did not detect any proteins in Western blots. The monoclonal antibodies KHRI-1, -2, and -3 which define epitopes expressed by discrete populations of supporting cells in the inner ear should be useful in characterizing the nature and function of cellular structures in the cochlea.