Predictors of progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis

Understanding the predictors of progression from a first to a second demyelinating event (and formerly, a diagnosis of clinically definite multiple sclerosis) is important clinically. Previous studies have focused on predictors within a single domain, e.g. radiological, lacking prospective data across multiple domains. We tested a comprehensive set of personal, environmental, neurological, MRI and genetic characteristics, considered together, as predictors of progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Participants were aged 18–59 years and had a first demyelinating event during the study recruitment period (1 November 2003–31 December 2006) for the Ausimmune Study (n = 216) and had follow-up data to 2–3 years post-initial interview. Detailed baseline data were available on a broad range of demographic and environmental factors, MRI, and genetic and viral studies. Follow-up data included confirmation of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (or not) and changes in environmental exposures during the follow-up period. We used multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling to test predictors of, and time to, conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. On review, one participant had an undiagnosed event prior to study recruitment and was excluded (n = 215). Data on progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were available for 91.2% (n = 196); 77% were diagnosed as clinically definite multiple sclerosis at follow-up. Mean (standard deviation) duration of follow-up was 2.7 (0.7) years. The set of predictors retained in the best predictive model for progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were as follows: younger age at first demyelinating event [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.87–0.97, per additional year of age); being a smoker at baseline (versus not) (aOR = 2.55, 95% CI 0.85–7.69); lower sun exposure at age 6–18 years (aOR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–1.00, per 100 kJ/m² increment in ultraviolet radiation dose), presence (versus absence) of infratentorial lesions on baseline magnetic resonance imaging (aOR = 7.41, 95% CI 2.08–26.41); and single nucleotide polymorphisms in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B (rs2523393, aOR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.09–0.68, for any G versus A:A), TNFRSF1A (rs1800693, aOR = 5.82, 95% CI 2.10–16.12, for any C versus T:T), and a vitamin D-binding protein gene (rs7041, aOR = 3.76, 95% CI 1.41–9.99, for any A versus C:C). The final model explained 36% of the variance. Predictors of more rapid progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (Cox proportional hazards regression) were similar. Genetic and magnetic resonance imaging characteristics as well as demographic and environmental factors predicted progression, and more rapid progression, from a first demyelinating event to a second event and clinically definite multiple sclerosis.

Adherence to MRI protocol consensus guidelines in multiple sclerosis: an Australian multi-centre study

INTRODUCTION

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a debilitating disease that causes significant morbidity within a young demographic. Diagnostic guidelines for MS have evolved, and imaging has played an increasingly important role in diagnosis over the last two decades. For imaging to contribute to diagnosis in a meaningful way, it must be reproducible. Consensus guidelines for MRI in MS exist to define correct sequence type and imaging technique, but it is not clear to what extent they are followed. This study reviewed MRI studies performed on Australian individuals presenting with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD) for adherence to published guidelines and discussed practical implementation of MS guidelines in light of recent updates.

METHODS

The Ausimmune study was a prospective case control study of Australian participants presenting with FCD from 2003 to 2006. Baseline cranial and spinal cord MRI studies of 226 case participants from four separate Australian regions were reviewed. MRI sequences were classified according to anatomical location, slice plane, tissue weighting and use of gadolinium-containing contrast media. Results were compared with the 2003 Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centres MRI protocol for the diagnosis of MS.

RESULTS

The composition of core cranial MRI sequences performed varied across the 226 scans. Of the studies, 91% included sagittal fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences. Cranial axial T2-weighted, axial FLAIR and axial proton density-weighted sequences were performed in 88%, 60% and 16% (respectively) of scans. Only 25% of the studies included a T1-weighted contrast-enhanced sequence. Concordance with the guidelines in all sequences was very low (2).

CONCLUSION

Only a small number of MRI investigations performed included all of the sequences stipulated by consensus guidelines. This is likely due to poor awareness in the imaging community of the guidelines and the rationale behind certain sequences. Radiologists with a sub-speciality interest in neuroradiology should take ownership of this issue and ensure that recommended imaging guidelines are followed.

Synanthropy of wild mammals as a determinant of emerging infectious diseases in the Asian-Australasian region

Humans create ecologically simplified landscapes that favour some wildlife species, but not others. Here, we explore the possibility that those species that tolerate or do well in human-modified environments, or 'synanthropic' species, are predominantly the hosts of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). We do this using global wildlife conservation data and wildlife host information extracted from systematically reviewed emerging infectious disease literature. The evidence for this relationship is examined with special emphasis on the Australasian, South East Asian and East Asian regions. We find that synanthropic wildlife hosts are approximately 15 times more likely than other wildlife in this region to be the source of emerging infectious diseases, and this association is essentially independent of the taxonomy of the species. A significant positive association with EIDs is also evident for those wildlife species of low conservation risk. Since the increase and spread of native and introduced species able to adapt to human-induced landscape change is at the expense of those species most vulnerable to habitat loss, our findings suggest a mechanism linking land conversion, global decline in biodiversity and a rise in EIDs of wildlife origin.

Climate change and primary health care

BACKGROUND

Climate change and rising average global temperatures threaten to disrupt the physical, biological and ecological life support systems on which human health depends.

OBJECTIVE

This article overviews the evidence for human induced climate change, the predicted health impacts, and the role of primary health care professionals in managing these impacts.

DISCUSSION

Climate change has substantial potential health effects. These include heat stress related to heatwaves; injuries related to extreme weather events such as storms, fires and floods; infectious disease outbreaks due to changing patterns of mosquito borne and water borne diseases; poor nutrition from reduced food availability and affordability; the psychosocial impact of drought; and the displacement of communities. Primary health care has an important role in preparing for and responding to these climate change related threats to human health.

Action on climate change: the health risks of procrastinating

OBJECTIVE

The world's climate will continue to change because of human influence. This is expected to affect health, mostly adversely. We need to compare the projected health effects in Australia arising from differing climate change scenarios to inform greenhouse gas emission (mitigation) policy.

METHODS

We estimated health effects in Australia (heatwave mortality, dengue transmission regions) around 2100 under various greenhouse gas scenarios: "strong policy action" (efforts made now to reduce emissions) and "no policy action" (emissions continue at present high levels with no climate change-specific policies).

RESULTS

Compared with no policy action, mitigation could reduce the number of deaths caused by hot temperatures among older Australians by 4,000-7,000 a year (range reflects likely population size at 2100). Under a scenario of "no action", the zone of potential transmission of dengue fever expands 1,800 kilometres (km) south, as far as Sydney. In contrast, by markedly constraining greenhouse gas emissions now, this southward extension could be limited to 600 km (to Rockhampton). The number of displaced people within the Asia-Pacific region could increase (by orders of magnitude) under the "no action" scenario because of adverse socioecological circumstances aggravated by climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional health effects will accrue as a result of the projected climate change throughout this century, and individuals and health systems should be prepared for some level of adaptation. However, timely and strong policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would diminish the extent and severity of estimated future health effects.

Socioaffective factors modulate working memory in schizophrenia patients

Working memory deficit in schizophrenia is a core cognitive feature of the disorder and is reliably associated with abnormalities of the prefrontal circuitry. Working memory deficits are also associated with impaired social functioning and present a major obstacle toward successful rehabilitation in schizophrenia. Although the role of prefrontal cortex in working memory has been extensively investigated, the intricate relations among the prefrontal circuitry, working memory and social behaviors are not clearly understood. In this study, we manipulated social context and observed its effects on spatial working memory. In experiment 1, the effects of social and asocial reinforcements on spatial working memory were examined in schizophrenic patients and healthy controls. The results show that social but not asocial reinforcements facilitated spatial working memory in schizophrenic patients. In experiment 2, the effects of human voice reinforcements (with or without affect) on working memory was investigated. Voice reinforcements did not facilitate working memory relative to the no-reinforcement condition. There was no difference between high-affect vs flat-affect voice conditions. In experiment 3, the effects of direct and indirect social interactions on spatial working memory were studied. Direct but not indirect social interaction facilitated working memory in schizophrenic patients. These results suggest that social context might facilitate working memory in schizophrenic patients perhaps by activating frontal lobe systems. In addition, the possibility of improving cognitive functions such as working memory using seemingly non-cognitive methods might lead to potential remediation strategies.

Comparative assessment of transport risks--how it can contribute to health impact assessment of transport policies

Health impact assessment (HIA) and comparative risk assessment (CRA) are important tools with which governments and communities can compare and integrate different sources of information about various health impacts into a single framework for policy-makers and planners. Both tools have strengths that may be combined usefully when conducting comprehensive assessments of decisions that affect complex health issues, such as the health risks and impacts of transport policy and planning activities. As yet, however, HIA and CRA have not been applied widely to the area of transport. We draw on the limited experience of the application of these tools in the context of road transport to explore how comparative assessment of transport risks can contribute to HIA of transport policies.

Fine Battlefield Reporting, But It's Time to Stop the War Metaphor

Secret Agents The Menace of Emerging Infections. Madeline Drexler. Joseph Henry (National Academy), Washington, DC, 2002. 326 pp. $24.95, C$34.95. ISBN 0-309-07638-2.

Writing for a broad, popular audience, Drexler discusses a variety of dangers posed by microbial pathogens.