Enhanced Role of Streamflow Processes in the Evolutionary Trends of Dissolved Organic Carbon

Investigating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics and drivers in rivers enhances the understanding of carbon-environment linkages and support sustainability. Previous studies did not fully consider the dynamic nature of key drivers that influence the long-term changing trends in DOC concentration over time (the controlling factors and their roles in DOC trend can undergo alterations over time). We analyzed 42 years (1979-2018) of hydrometeorology, sulfate SO4, and DOC data from a 5.42 km2 watershed in central-southern Ontario, Canada. Our findings reveal a significant (p ≤ 0.01) overall increase in DOC concentrations, mainly due to the coevolution of SO4 and streamflow trends, especially the extreme flows. Over the 42-year period, the changing trend of streamflow (especially the extreme high or low flows) have significantly (p < 0.05) intensified their influence on DOC trends, increasing by an average of 30%. Conversely, the impact of SO4 has weakened, experiencing an average decrease of 32.6%. The upward trend in the annual average DOC concentration is attributed to the increasing number of maximum flow days within a year, while the decreasing trend in the number of minimum flow days has a contrasting effect. In other words, changes in maximum and minimum flow days have a counteracting effect on the DOC concentration trends. These results underscore the importance of considering the effects of altered streamflow processes on carbon cycle changes under evolving environmental conditions.

Solute depletion and reduced hydrological connectivity in subarctic patterned peatlands disturbed by mine dewatering

Patterned bog and fen peatlands of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, which form one of the largest continuous peatland complexes in the world, are globally significant stores of carbon and important water conveyance and storage features on the landscape. However, expansion of resource exploration and extraction combined with warmer temperatures associated with climate change may result in reduced water availability to these peatland complexes, potentially disrupting peatland hydrological connectivity and hydrogeochemical cycling. A case study on the effects of reduced water availability on peatland hydrological and geochemical function was conducted near the De Beers Victor Diamond Mine, located 90 km west of Attawapiskat. Active dewatering occurred here over a 12-year period (2007-2019) during which a 1.5 km transect was monitored within the mine impacted radius. Hydrological (streamflow and groundwater levels) and chemical (porewater and surface water samples) parameters were collected at the impacted transect and two nearby unimpacted reference sites. Results demonstrated that impacted peatlands had depleted water storage and spent an average of 50 % less time hydrologically connected than unimpacted peatlands. By the end of the study period, increasingly depleted water storage within the dewatering radius resulted in disproportionately lower flowrates in two tributaries downgradient of the mine-impacted peatlands when compared with the reference sites. Moreover, diminished water storage allowed solute-depleted precipitation to reach greater depths within the peat profile, while stronger downwards gradients suppressed upwards flow into fens, limiting the amount of solute-enriched water reaching the surface. The recovery of fen solute concentrations will be a prolonged process (i.e., decades to centuries) due to the slow rate of upwards diffusion, which may result in the transition of these systems towards ombrotrophic bogs. Further studies should focus on the susceptibility of these impacted systems to further reductions in water availability due to climate change.

The Application of SWAT Model and Remotely Sensed Products to Characterize the Dynamic of Streamflow and Snow in a Mountainous Watershed in the High Atlas

Snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt are among the processes with the greatest influence on the water cycle in mountainous watersheds. Hydrological models may be significantly biased if snow estimations are inaccurate. However, the unavailability of in situ snow data with enough spatiotemporal resolution limits the application of spatially distributed models in snow-fed watersheds. This obliges numerous modellers to reduce their attention to the snowpack and its effect on water distribution, particularly when a portion of the watershed is predominately covered by snow. This research demonstrates the added value of remotely sensed snow cover products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in evaluating the performance of hydrological models to estimate seasonal snow dynamics and discharge. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used in this work to simulate discharge and snow processes in the Oued El Abid snow-dominated watershed. The model was calibrated and validated on a daily basis, for a long period (1981-2015), using four discharge-gauging stations. A spatially varied approach (snow parameters are varied spatially) and a lumped approach (snow parameters are unique across the whole watershed) have been compared. Remote sensing data provided by MODIS enabled the evaluation of the snow processes simulated by the SWAT model. Results illustrate that SWAT model discharge simulations were satisfactory to good according to the statistical criteria. In addition, the model was able to reasonably estimate the snow-covered area when comparing it to the MODIS daily snow cover product. When allowing snow parameters to vary spatially, SWAT model results were more consistent with the observed streamflow and the MODIS snow-covered area (MODIS-SCA). This paper provides an example of how hydrological modelling using SWAT and snow coverage products by remote sensing may be used together to examine seasonal snow cover and snow dynamics in the High Atlas watershed.

Long-Term Experimental Manipulation of Atmospheric Sulfate Deposition to a Peatland: Response of Methylmercury and Related Solute Export in Streamwater

Changes in sulfate (SO₄^2-) deposition have been linked to changes in mercury (Hg) methylation in peatlands and water quality in freshwater catchments. There is little empirical evidence, however, of how quickly methyl-Hg (MeHg, a bioaccumulative neurotoxin) export from catchments might change with declining SO₄^2- deposition. Here, we present responses in total Hg (THg), MeHg, total organic carbon, pH, and SO₄^2- export from a peatland-dominated catchment as a function of changing SO₄^2- deposition in a long-term (1998-2011), whole-ecosystem, control-impact experiment. Annual SO₄^2- deposition to half of a 2-ha peatland was experimentally increased 6-fold over natural levels and then returned to ambient levels in two phases. Sulfate additions led to a 5-fold increase in monthly flow-weighted MeHg concentrations and yields relative to a reference catchment. Once SO₄^2- additions ceased, MeHg concentrations in the outflow streamwater returned to pre-SO₄^2- addition levels within 2 years. The decline in streamwater MeHg was proportional to the change in the peatland area no longer receiving experimental SO₄^2- inputs. Importantly, net demethylation and increased sorption to peat hastened the return of MeHg to baseline levels beyond purely hydrological flushing. Overall, we present clear empirical evidence of rapid and proportionate declines in MeHg export from a peatland-dominated catchment when SO₄^2- deposition declines.

Eco-hydrological modelling of channel network dynamics-part 1: stochastic simulation of active stream expansion and retraction

Dynamic changes in the active portion of stream networks represent a phenomenon common to diverse climates and geologic settings. However, mechanistically describing these processes at the relevant spatiotemporal scales without huge computational burdens remains challenging. Here, we present a novel stochastic framework for the effective simulation of channel network dynamics capitalizing on the concept of 'hierarchical structuring of temporary streams'-a general principle to identify the activation/deactivation order of network nodes. The framework allows the long-term description of event-based changes of the river network configuration starting from widely available climatic data (mainly rainfall and evapotranspiration). Our results indicate that climate strongly controls temporal variations of the active length, influencing not only the preferential configuration of the active channels but also the speed of network retraction during drying. Moreover, we observed that-while the statistics of wet length are mainly dictated by the underlying climatic conditions-the spatial patterns of active reaches and the size of the largest connected patch of the network are strongly controlled by the spatial correlation of local persistency. The proposed framework provides a robust mathematical set-up for analysing the multi-faceted ecological legacies of channel network dynamics, as discussed in a companion paper.

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

How will increasing wildfire activity affect water resources in the water-limited western United States (WUS)? Among basins where >20% of forest burned, postfire streamflow is significantly enhanced by an average of approximately 30% for 6 y. Over 2015 to 2020, several large WUS basins experienced >10% of forest burned. Climate projections and an exponential forest fire response to climate-induced drying suggest the next 3 decades will see repeated years when WUS forest fire area exceeds that of 2020, which set a modern record for forest area burned. If so, entire regions will likely experience more streamflow than expected, potentially enhancing human access to water but posing hazard management challenges. Projections of water supply and runoff-related hazards must account for wildfire.

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

Polyvinylidene Fluoride Surface Polarization Enhancement for Liquid-Solid Triboelectric Nanogenerator and Its Application

Liquid-solid triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) has been great attention as a promising electricity generation method for renewable energy sources and self-powered electronic devices. Thus, enhancing TENG performance is a critical issue to be concerned for both practical and industrial applications. Hence in this study, a high-output liquid-solid TENG is proposed using a polyvinylidene fluoride surface polarization enhancement (PSPE) for self-powered streamflow sensing, which shows many advantages, such as adapt to the sensor energy requirement, multiple parameters sensing at the same time, eliminate the influence of ion concentration. The TENG based on PSPE film has the maximum power density of 15.6 mW/m², which is increased by about 4.7 times compared to commercial PVDF-based TENG. This could be attributed to the increase of the dielectric constant and hydrophobic property of the PVDF film after the surface polarization enhancement process. Furthermore, the PSPE-TENG-driven sensor can simultaneously monitor both the physical and chemical parameters of the streamflow with high sensitivity and minimum error detection, which proves that the PSPE-TENG has enormous potential applications in self-powered streamflow sensing.

Groundwater dependence of riparian woodlands and the disrupting effect of anthropogenically altered streamflow

Riparian ecosystems fundamentally depend on groundwater, especially in dryland regions, yet their water requirements and sources are rarely considered in water resource management decisions. Until recently, technological limitations and data gaps have hindered assessment of groundwater influences on riparian ecosystem health at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to policy and management. Here, we analyze Sentinel-2-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; n = 5,335,472 observations), field-based groundwater elevation (n = 32,051 observations), and streamflow alteration data for riparian woodland communities (n = 22,153 polygons) over a 5-y period (2015 to 2020) across California. We find that riparian woodlands exhibit a stress response to deeper groundwater, as evidenced by concurrent declines in greenness represented by NDVI. Furthermore, we find greater seasonal coupling of canopy greenness to groundwater for vegetation along streams with natural flow regimes in comparison with anthropogenically altered streams, particularly in the most water-limited regions. These patterns suggest that many riparian woodlands in California are subsidized by water management practices. Riparian woodland communities rely on naturally variable groundwater and streamflow components to sustain key ecological processes, such as recruitment and succession. Altered flow regimes, which stabilize streamflow throughout the year and artificially enhance water supplies to riparian vegetation in the dry season, disrupt the seasonal cycles of abiotic drivers to which these Mediterranean forests are adapted. Consequently, our analysis suggests that many riparian ecosystems have become reliant on anthropogenically altered flow regimes, making them more vulnerable and less resilient to rapid hydrologic change, potentially leading to future riparian forest loss across increasingly stressed dryland regions.

Total organic carbon concentrations in ecosystem solutions of a remote tropical montane forest respond to global environmental change

The response of organic carbon (C) concentrations in ecosystem solutions to environmental change affects the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from forests to surface and groundwaters. We determined the total organic C (TOC) concentrations (filtered <1-7 µm) and the ratios of TOC/dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations, electrical conductivity (EC), and pH in all major ecosystem solutions of a tropical montane forest from 1998 to 2013. The forest was located on the rim of the Amazon basin in Ecuador and experienced increasing numbers of days with >25°C, decreasing soil moisture, and rising nitrogen (N) deposition from the atmosphere during the study period. In rainfall, throughfall, mineral soil solutions (at the 0.15- and 0.30-m depths), and streamflow, TOC concentrations and fluxes decreased significantly from 1998 to 2013, while they increased in stemflow. TOC/DON ratios decreased significantly in rainfall, throughfall, soil solution at the 0.15-m depth, and streamflow. Based on Δ¹⁴ C values, the TOC in rainfall and mineral soil solutions was 1 year old and that of litter leachate was 10 years old. The pH in litter leachate decreased with time, that in mineral soil solutions increased, while those in the other ecosystem solutions did not change. Thus, reduced TOC solubility because of lower pH values cannot explain the negative trends in TOC concentrations in most ecosystem solutions. The increasing TOC concentrations and EC in stemflow pointed at an increased leaching of TOC and other ions from the bark. Our results suggest an accelerated degradation of DOM, particularly of young DOM, associated with the production of N-rich compounds simultaneously to changing climatic conditions and increasing N availability. Thus, environmental change increased the CO₂ release to the atmosphere but reduced DOM export to surface and groundwater.

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN-D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN-D based SWAT-simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge-based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.

Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

Zero or not? Causes and consequences of zero-flow stream gage readings

Streamflow observations can be used to understand, predict, and contextualize hydrologic, ecological, and biogeochemical processes and conditions in streams. Stream gages are point measurements along rivers where streamflow is measured, and are often used to infer upstream watershed-scale processes. When stream gages read zero, this may indicate that the stream has fully dried; however, zero-flow readings can also be caused by a wide range of other factors. Our ability to identify whether or not a zero-flow gage reading indicates a dry fluvial system has far reaching environmental implications. Incorrect identification and interpretation by the data user can lead to hydrologic, ecological, and/or biogeochemical predictions from models and analyses. Here, we describe several causes of zero-flow gage readings: frozen surface water, flow reversals, instrument error, and natural or human-driven upstream source losses or bypass flow. For these examples, we discuss the implications of zero-flow interpretations. We also highlight additional methodss for determining flow presence, including direct observations, statistical methods, and hydrologic models, which can be applied to interpret causes of zero-flow gage readings and implications for reach- and watershed-scale dynamics. Such efforts are necessary to improve our ability to understand and predict surface flow activation, cessation, and connectivity across river networks. Developing this integrated understanding of the wide range of possible meanings of zero-flows will only attain greater importance in a more variable and changing hydrologic climate.

Analysis of Streamflow Complexity Based on Entropies in the Weihe River Basin, China

The study on the complexity of streamflow has guiding significance for hydrologic simulation, hydrologic prediction, water resources planning and management. Utilizing monthly streamflow data from four hydrologic control stations in the mainstream of the Weihe River in China, the methods of approximate entropy, sample entropy, two-dimensional entropy and fuzzy entropy are introduced into hydrology research to investigate the spatial distribution and dynamic change in streamflow complexity. The results indicate that the complexity of the streamflow has spatial differences in the Weihe River watershed, exhibiting an increasing tendency along the Weihe mainstream, except at the Linjiacun station, which may be attributed to the elevated anthropogenic influence. Employing sliding entropies, the variation points of the streamflow time series at the Weijiabu station were identified in 1968, 1993 and 2003, and those at the Linjiacun station, Xianyang station and Huaxian station occurred in 1971, 1993 and 2003. In the verification of the above points, the minimum value of t-test is 3.7514, and that of Brown-Forsythe is 7.0307, far exceeding the significance level of 95%. Also, the cumulative anomaly can detect two variation points. The t-test, Brown-Forsythe test and cumulative anomaly test strengthen the conclusion regarding the availability of entropies for identifying the streamflow variability. The results lead us to conclude that four entropies have good application effects in the complexity analysis of the streamflow time series. Moreover, two-dimensional entropy and fuzzy entropy, which have been rarely used in hydrology research before, demonstrate better continuity and relative consistency, are more suitable for short and noisy hydrologic time series and more effectively identify the streamflow complexity. The results could be very useful in identifying variation points in the streamflow time series.

Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulated hydrological impacts of land use change from temperate grassland to energy crops: A case study in western UK

When considering the large-scale deployment of bioenergy crops, it is important to understand the implication for ecosystem hydrological processes and the influences of crop type and location. Based on the potential for future land use change (LUC), the 10,280 km2 West Wales Water Framework Directive River Basin District (UK) was selected as a typical grassland dominated district, and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology model with a geographic information systems interface was used to investigate implications for different bioenergy deployment scenarios. The study area was delineated into 855 sub-basins and 7,108 hydrological response units based on rivers, soil type, land use, and slope. Changes in hydrological components for two bioenergy crops (Miscanthus and short rotation coppice, SRC) planted on 50% (2,192 km2) or 25% (1,096 km2) of existing improved pasture are quantified. Across the study area as a whole, only surface run-off with SRC planted at the 50% level was significantly impacted, where it was reduced by up to 23% (during April). However, results varied spatially and a comparison of annual means for each sub-basin and scenario revealed surface run-off was significantly decreased and baseflow significantly increased (by a maximum of 40%) with both Miscanthus and SRC. Evapotranspiration was significantly increased with SRC (at both planting levels) and water yield was significantly reduced with SRC (at the 50% level) by up to 5%. Effects on streamflow were limited, varying between -5% and +5% change (compared to baseline) in the majority of sub-basins. The results suggest that for mesic temperate grasslands, adverse effects from the drying of soil and alterations to streamflow may not arise, and with surface run-off reduced and baseflow increased, there could, depending on crop location, be potential benefits for flood and erosion mitigation.

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.

Improved Hydrological Decision Support System for the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Satellite-Based Earth Observations

Multiple satellite-based earth observations and traditional station data along with the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model were employed to enhance the Lower Mekong River Basin region’s hydrological decision support system. A nearest neighbor approximation methodology was introduced to fill the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrieval for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) grid points from 2001 to 2014, together with the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data points for continuous precipitation forcing for our hydrological decision support system. A software tool to access and format satellite-based earth observation systems of precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures was developed and is presented. Our results suggest that the model-simulated streamflow utilizing TRMM and IMERG forcing data was able to capture the variability of the observed streamflow patterns in the Lower Mekong better than model-simulated streamflow with in-situ precipitation station data. We also present satellite-based and in-situ precipitation adjustment maps that can serve to correct precipitation data for the Lower Mekong region for use in other applications. The inconsistency, scarcity, poor spatial representation, difficult access and incompleteness of the available in-situ precipitation data for the Mekong region make it imperative to adopt satellite-based earth observations to pursue hydrologic modeling.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R²) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R² was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses.

Nonannual tree rings in a climate-sensitive Prioria copaifera chronology in the Atrato River, Colombia

In temperate climates, tree growth dormancy usually ensures the annual nature of tree rings, but in tropical environments, determination of annual periodicity can be more complex. The purposes of the work are as follows: (1) to generate a reliable tree‐ring width chronology for Prioria copaifera Griseb. (Leguminoceae), a tropical tree species dwelling in the Atrato River floodplains, Colombia; (2) to assess the climate signal recorded by the tree‐ring records; and (3) to validate the annual periodicity of the tree rings using independent methods. We used standard dendrochronological procedures to generate the P. copaifera tree‐ring chronology. We used Pearson correlations to evaluate the relationship of the chronology with the meteorological records, climate regional indices, and gridded precipitation/sea surface temperature products. We also evaluated 24 high‐precision ¹⁴C measurements spread over a range of preselected tree rings, with assigned calendar years by dendrochronological techniques, before and after the bomb spike in order to validate the annual nature of the tree rings. The tree‐ring width chronology was statistically reliable, and it correlated significantly with local records of annual and October–December (OND) streamflow and precipitation across the upper river watershed (positive), and OND temperature (negative). It was also significantly related to the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index, as well as sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the Pacific region. However, ¹⁴C high‐precision measurements over the tree rings demonstrated offsets of up to 40 years that indicate that P. copaifera can produce more than one ring in certain years. Results derived from the strongest climate–growth relationship during the most recent years of the record suggest that the climatic signal reported may be due to the presence of annual rings in some of those trees in recent years. Our study alerts about the risk of applying dendrochronology in species with challenging anatomical features defining tree rings, commonly found in the tropics, without an independent validation of annual periodicity of tree rings. High‐precision ¹⁴C measurements in multiple trees are a useful method to validate the identification of annual tree rings.

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change.

Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication

Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.

The effects of downscaling method on the variability of simulated watershed response to climate change in five U.S. basins

Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.

Novel wildlife in the Arctic: the influence of changing riparian ecosystems and shrub habitat expansion on snowshoe hares

Warming during the 20th century has changed the arctic landscape, including aspects of the hydrology, vegetation, permafrost, and glaciers, but effects on wildlife have been difficult to detect. The primary aim of this study is to examine the physical and biological processes contributing to the expanded riparian habitat and range of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) in northern Alaska. We explore linkages between components of the riparian ecosystem in Arctic Alaska since the 1960s, including seasonality of stream flow, air temperature, floodplain shrub habitat, and snowshoe hare distributions. Our analyses show that the peak discharge during spring snowmelt has occurred on average 3.4 days per decade earlier over the last 30 years and has contributed to a longer growing season in floodplain ecosystems. We use empirical correlations between cumulative summer warmth and riparian shrub height to reconstruct annual changes in shrub height from the 1960s to the present. The effects of longer and warmer growing seasons are estimated to have stimulated a 78% increase in the height of riparian shrubs. Earlier spring discharge and the estimated increase in riparian shrub height are consistent with observed riparian shrub expansion in the region. Our browsing measurements show that snowshoe hares require a mean riparian shrub height of at least 1.24-1.36 m, a threshold which our hindcasting indicates was met between 1964 and 1989. This generally coincides with observational evidence we present suggesting that snowshoe hares became established in 1977 or 1978. Warming and expanded shrub habitat is the most plausible reason for recent snowshoe hare establishment in Arctic Alaska. The establishment of snowshoe hares and other shrub herbivores in the Arctic in response to increasing shrub habitat is a contrasting terrestrial counterpart to the decline in marine mammals reliant on decreasing sea ice.

WATERSHEDS

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.

Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands - an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i

Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the 'Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and 'Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994-1997 and again during 2007-2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i 'Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria.

Interactive effects of water diversion and climate change for juvenile chinook salmon in the lemhi river basin (USA.)

The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate-change scenarios. Projected survival was 42-58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate-change scenarios (ECHO-G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11-39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate-change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17-58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate-change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO-G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.).

Seasonal patterns of gastrointestinal illness and streamflow along the Ohio River

Waterborne gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses demonstrate seasonal increases associated with water quality and meteorological characteristics. However, few studies have been conducted on the association of hydrological parameters, such as streamflow, and seasonality of GI illnesses. Streamflow is correlated with biological contamination and can be used as proxy for drinking water contamination. We compare seasonal patterns of GI illnesses in the elderly (65 years and older) along the Ohio River for a 14-year period (1991-2004) to seasonal patterns of streamflow. Focusing on six counties in close proximity to the river, we compiled weekly time series of hospitalizations for GI illnesses and streamflow data. Seasonal patterns were explored using Poisson annual harmonic regression with and without adjustment for streamflow. GI illnesses demonstrated significant seasonal patterns with peak timing preceding peak timing of streamflow for all six counties. Seasonal patterns of illness remain consistent after adjusting for streamflow. This study found that the time of peak GI illness precedes the peak of streamflow, suggesting either an indirect relationship or a more direct path whereby pathogens enter water supplies prior to the peak in streamflow. Such findings call for interdisciplinary research to better understand associations among streamflow, pathogen loading, and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses.

Digital Hydrologic Networks Supporting Applications Related to Spatially Referenced Regression Modeling

Digital hydrologic networks depicting surface-water pathways and their associated drainage catchments provide a key component to hydrologic analysis and modeling. Collectively, they form common spatial units that can be used to frame the descriptions of aquatic and watershed processes. In addition, they provide the ability to simulate and route the movement of water and associated constituents throughout the landscape. Digital hydrologic networks have evolved from derivatives of mapping products to detailed, interconnected, spatially referenced networks of water pathways, drainage areas, and stream and watershed characteristics. These properties are important because they enhance the ability to spatially evaluate factors that affect the sources and transport of water-quality constituents at various scales. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), a process-based/statistical model, relies on a digital hydrologic network in order to establish relations between quantities of monitored contaminant flux, contaminant sources, and the associated physical characteristics affecting contaminant transport. Digital hydrologic networks modified from the River Reach File (RF1) and National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) geospatial datasets provided frameworks for SPARROW in six regions of the conterminous United States. In addition, characteristics of the modified RF1 were used to update estimates of mean-annual streamflow. This produced more current flow estimates for use in SPARROW modeling.

The Role of Headwater Streams in Downstream Water Quality

Knowledge of headwater influences on the water-quality and flow conditions of downstream waters is essential to water-resource management at all governmental levels; this includes recent court decisions on the jurisdiction of the Federal Clean Water Act (CWA) over upland areas that contribute to larger downstream water bodies. We review current watershed research and use a water-quality model to investigate headwater influences on downstream receiving waters. Our evaluations demonstrate the intrinsic connections of headwaters to landscape processes and downstream waters through their influence on the supply, transport, and fate of water and solutes in watersheds. Hydrological processes in headwater catchments control the recharge of subsurface water stores, flow paths, and residence times of water throughout landscapes. The dynamic coupling of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in upland streams further controls the chemical form, timing, and longitudinal distances of solute transport to downstream waters. We apply the spatially explicit, mass-balance watershed model SPARROW to consider transport and transformations of water and nutrients throughout stream networks in the northeastern United States. We simulate fluxes of nitrogen, a primary nutrient that is a water-quality concern for acidification of streams and lakes and eutrophication of coastal waters, and refine the model structure to include literature observations of nitrogen removal in streams and lakes. We quantify nitrogen transport from headwaters to downstream navigable waters, where headwaters are defined within the model as first-order, perennial streams that include flow and nitrogen contributions from smaller, intermittent and ephemeral streams. We find that first-order headwaters contribute approximately 70% of the mean-annual water volume and 65% of the nitrogen flux in second-order streams. Their contributions to mean water volume and nitrogen flux decline only marginally to about 55% and 40% in fourth- and higher-order rivers that include navigable waters and their tributaries. These results underscore the profound influence that headwater areas have on shaping downstream water quantity and water quality. The results have relevance to water-resource management and regulatory decisions and potentially broaden understanding of the spatial extent of Federal CWA jurisdiction in U.S. waters.

Constraining the Sheffield dynamic global vegetation model using stream-flow measurements in the United Kingdom

The biospheric water and carbon cycles are intimately coupled, so simulating carbon fluxes by vegetation also requires modelling of the water fluxes, with each component influencing the other. Observations of river streamflow integrate information at the catchment scale and are widely available over a long period; they therefore provide an important source of information for validating or calibrating vegetation models. In this paper, we analyse the performance of the Sheffield dynamic global vegetation model (SDGVM) for predicting river streamflow and quantifying how this information helps to constrain carbon flux predictions. The SDGVM is run for 29 large catchments in the United Kingdom. Annual streamflow estimates are compared with long time-series observations. In 23 out of the 29 catchments, the bias between model and observations is less than 50 mm, equivalent to less than 10% of precipitation. In the remaining catchments, larger errors are because of combinations of unpredictable causes, in particular various human activities and measurement issues and, in two cases, unidentified causes. In one of the catchments, we assess to what extent a knowledge of annual streamflow can constrain model parameters and in turn constrain estimates of gross primary production (GPP). For this purpose, we assume the model parameters are uncertain and constrain them by the streamflow observations using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Comparing the probability density function of GPP with and without constraint shows that streamflow effectively constrains GPP, mainly by setting a low probability to GPP values below about 1100 g C^-1  m²  yr^-1 . In other words, streamflow observations allow the rejection of low values of GPP, so that the potential range of possible GPP values is almost halved.