Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy of Disc Diffusion and Agar Dilution Methods in Evaluating Helicobacter pylori Susceptibility to Antibiotics

BACKGROUND: In this study, efficacy and consistency of disc diffusion (DD) and agar dilution (AD) methods in determining Helicobacter pylori susceptibility to antibiotics were evaluated using Brucella blood agar (BBA) in both methods and tetrazolium egg yolk agar (TEYA) in AD. METHODS: Twenty H. pylori isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics; metronidazole (MTZ), clarithromycin (CLR), amoxicillin (AMX), tetracycline (TET), ofloxacin (OFX), levofloxacin (LVX), ciprofloxacin (CIP), furazolidone (FRZ), and rifampin (RIF). Antibiotics solutions were impregnated into blank paper disks on BBA in the DD method or added to BBA (ADB) or TEYA (ADT) media in the AD method. Suspensions of H. pylori isolates were surface or spot inoculated on solid media. Plates were incubated in CO₂ incubator at 37°C for 5-7 days. RESULTS: The highest rate of susceptibility to MTZ (65%) was determined by DD method compared with AD method (ADB: 40%, ADT: 30%). Both methods showed similar CLR (85%) and AMX (100%) susceptibility rates. Susceptibility to remaining antibiotics, determined by DD and ADB/ADT media were in respective order as 95%, 75% / 75% for TET, 100%, 95% / 85% for FRZ, 85%, 85% / 75% for OFX, 90%, 95% / 85% for LVX, 90%, 85% / 85% for CIP, and 100%, 85% / 75% for RIF. CONCLUSION: DD and AD methods showed consistency in determining 161 (89.4%) susceptibility and resistance and inconsistency in determining 19 (10.6%) susceptibility and resistance (P < 0.05). DD is recommended as a cheap and easy method with the efficacy and precision comparable to the AD method in determining H. pylori susceptibility to antibiotics.

The seroprevalence of celiac disease in patients with symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome: A cross-sectional study in north of Iran

BACKGROUND

Celiac disease (CD) is a common cause of malabsorption that is definitively diagnosed by abnormal bowel biopsy, symptoms and histologic changes to gluten free diet. The symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are common in our community as the majority of people in Guilan, north of Iran, consume rice daily. Also, a number of celiac patients are unknown, and IBS are mistakenly diagnosed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CD among IBS patients.

METHODS

A total of 475 consecutive patients with IBS, confirmed by Rome IV, underwent celiac serological tests antitissue transglutaminase antibodies (IgA-tTG, IgG-tTG) after obtaining a written consent form. In case of positive serological tests, biopsy was performed from small intestine after endoscopyRESULTS: Thirty-one (6.53%, 95% CI: 4.55-9.22) patients were positive for celiac serology. Based on Marsh-Oberhuber criteria, out of 9 patients with positive pathology 77.78% (95% CI: 40.19-96.05) had marsh IIIc. In IBS patients cramp (0.009) and stomach fullness (0.021) were two statistically significant IBS symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest physicians to consider celiac examinations for all patients with IBS symptoms, even for patients with no obvious celiac symptoms.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

OLGA- and OLGIM-Based Staging in the Patients with Gastritis and Endoscopy Indications

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer is one of the most common cancers with high mortality. In Iran, the high-risk regions include Northern and Northwestern parts. The aim of this study was to assess the operative link on gastritis assessment- and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia-based staging in patients with upper gastrointestinal symptoms.

METHODS

Totally, 345 patients underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Also, the status of Helicobacter pylori infection was evaluated using rapid urease test and histological method. Moreover, histological changes were assessed using the Update Sydney System. The operative link on gastritis assessment- and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia-based stages of 0-II were considered as low-risk stages and stages III and IV were considered as high-risk stages.

RESULTS

Most of the patients were lower than 60 years (245 patients, 71%), and 71.9% of our patients had H. pylori infection. The frequency of atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia was 44.9% and 25.2%, respectively (P < .001). Eleven patients (73.7%) with gastric adenocarcinoma had a low risk and 2 patients with low-grade dysplasia had a high risk of operative link on gastritis assessment and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia. Almost, 62.5% of gastric cancer patients with an intestinal type of gastric adenocarcinoma were at low-risk stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Although high stages of operative link on gastritis assessment and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia need further follow-up, lower stages of atrophy or intestinal metaplasia also require follow-up. Furthermore, operative link on gastritis assessment method in detecting a greater number of patients who need follow-up is more successful and profitable.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Dietary supplements consumption and its association with socioeconomic factors, obesity and main non-communicable chronic diseases in the north of Iran: the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

BACKGROUND

Dietary supplements (DSs) use have become a growing trend worldwide, and it may be affected by demographic and sociocultural factors. Some people use supplements with the thought that they can improve their health, reduce symptoms and prevent disease. The aim of the present study was to define the frequency of DS use and its association with socioeconomic factors among participants with selected main non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) (diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension (HTN), cancers, and obesity in the north of Iran.

METHODS

This large cross-sectional study was conducted as a part of the PERSIAN Guilan cohort study. Supplement use during last year and its type, demographic factors, socioeconomic status, lifestyle habits were asked by face-to-face interview. The history of chronic disease was defined by a trained team. Data were analyzed using SPSS. The chance of supplement use according to demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables and history of chronic disease was analyzed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

10,520 men and women aged 35-70 years in Some'e Sara County (including urban regions and 39 villages) were studied. About 25% of participants consumed DSs. The highest consumption of DS was calcium/vitamin D (11.1%), ferrous sulfate (8.8%), and vitamin D pearl or ampoule (7.7%). The highest percent of the history of chronic disease was central obesity (62.7%), HTN (43.2%), and general obesity (32.7), respectively. After adjustment for confounders, those with female gender, the highest age ranges (55-65 and > 65 years), high academic education, living in urban regions, and good economic status were more likely to be DSs consumers; however, married and smoker subjects were more likely to consume DS. Participants who had a history of diabetes, HTN, CVD, Obesity, and Central Obesity were more likely to intake DS in comparison with healthy subjects.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that a quarter of the participants were DS users. Female sex, older age groups, and higher educated participants, and among chronic disease, patients with HTN, CVD, and diabetes were more likely to be users of any DS.

Evaluation of the effect of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a randomized double-blind clinical trial (DISCOVER)

Background

The combination of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir has shown preliminary efficacy for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in four open-label studies with small sample sizes. This larger trial aimed to assess if the addition of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir to standard care improved clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

This was a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized clinical trial in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at 19 hospitals in Iran. Patients were randomized to oral sofosbuvir/daclatasvir 400/60 mg once-daily or placebo in addition to standard of care. Patients were included if they had positive PCR or diagnostic chest CT, O₂ saturation <95% and compatible symptoms. The primary outcome was hospital discharge within 10 days of randomization. Secondary outcomes included mortality and time to clinical events. The trial is registered on the Iran Registry of Clinical Trials under IRCT20200624047908N1.

Results

Between July and October 2020, 1083 patients were randomized to either the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm (n = 541) or the placebo arm (n = 542). No significant difference was observed in the primary outcome of hospital discharge within 10 days, which was achieved by 415/541 (77%) in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm and 411/542 (76%) in the placebo arm [risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% CI 0.95–1.08, P = 0.734]. In-hospital mortality was 60/541 (11%) in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm versus 55/542 (10%) in the placebo arm (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.77–1.54, P = 0.615). No differences were observed in time to hospital discharge or time to in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

We observed no significant effect of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir versus placebo on hospital discharge or survival in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Nationwide Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes and Associated Risk Factors Among Iranian Adults: Analysis of Data from PERSIAN Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decades prevalence of diabetes has increased in Iran and other countries. This study aimed to update the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in Iran and to determine associated sociodemographic risk factors, as well as diabetes awareness and control.

METHODS

This is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey that included 163,770 Iranian adults aged 35-70 years, from different ethnic backgrounds, between 2014 and 2020. Diabetes was diagnosed at fasting blood sugar of ≥ 6.99 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), or receiving blood glucose-lowering treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to detect determinants associated with prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, as well as predictors of diabetes awareness and glycemic control.

RESULTS

Sex- and age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 15.0% (95% CI 12.6-17.3) and 25.4% (18.6-32.1), respectively. Among patients with diabetes, 79.6% (76.2-82.9) were aware of their diabetes. Glycemic control was achieved in 41.2% (37.5-44.8) of patients who received treatment. Older age, obesity, high waist to hip ratio (WHR), and specific ethnic background were associated with a significant risk of diabetes and prediabetes. Higher awareness of diabetes was observed in older patients, married individuals, those with high WHR, and individuals with high wealth score. Moreover, glycemic control was significantly better in women, obese individuals, those with high physical activity, educational attainment, and specific ethnic background.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes is increasing at an alarming rate in Iranian adults. High proportion of uncontrolled patients require particular initiatives to be integrated in the health care system.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dynamics of the COVID-19 Clinical Findings and the Serologic Response

The factors affecting the dynamics of lengthening of symptoms and serologic responses are not well known. In order to see how the serologic responses change in relation to the clinical features, we selected a group of 472 adults with a positive IgM/IgG antibody test result from a baseline study of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, assessed their COVID-19 and past medical histories, and followed them up in about 3 months. Nearly one-fourth of the subjects were asymptomatic at the baseline; 12.8% subjects became symptomatic at the follow-up (FU) when 39.8% of the subjects had some persisting symptoms. At the baseline, 6.1% showed anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM positive, 59.3% only for IgG, and 34.5% for both. At the FU, these figures declined to 0.6, 54.0, and 4.4%, respectively, with the mean IgM and IgG levels declining about 6.3 and 2.5 folds. Blood group A was consistently linked to both sustaining and flipping of the gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory symptoms. The baseline IgM level was associated with GI symptoms and pre-existing cirrhosis in multivariate models. Both of the baseline and FU IgG levels were strongly associated with age, male, and lung involvement seen in chest computed tomography (CT)-scan. Finally, as compared with antibody decayers, IgM sustainers were found to be more anosmic [mean difference (MD): 11.5%; P = 0.047] with lower body mass index (BMI) (MD: 1.30 kg/m²; P = 0.002), while IgG sustainers were more commonly females (MD: 19.2%; P = 0.042) with shorter diarrhea duration in the FU (MD: 2.8 days; P = 0.027). Our findings indicate how the anti-SARS-CoV-2 serologic response and COVID-19 clinical presentations change in relation to each other and basic characteristics.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Food Behaviors and Its Association with Hypertension and Cardiovascular Diseases in Sowme'eh Sara (North of Iran): The PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

Food behavior and dietary pattern are major parameters affecting the health status of people. The objective of this study was investigation of food behaviors in people inhabited in North of Iran to find out association of the effective indices (related to salt and fried foods) with hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This large cross-sectional study was conducted on 10,520 participants and their sociodemographic, medical, and food behavior information were evaluated. Association of salt intake with CVDs and stroke was studied by portfolio at risk (PAR) formula. Association of food behavior with hypertension and CVDs was surveyed by chi-square test. Differences were significant at P≤0.05. Analysis of medical information revealed that 43.18% and 8.18% of the participants had hypertension and CVDs, respectively; mostly in women. Significant association was observed between salt-related behaviors and hypertension in the participants. Regarding salt intake, higher PARs were calculated in women than men (2.26 vs. 1.88 for PAR_CVDs and 3.66 vs. 3.05 for PAR_stroke), and urban than rural inhabitants (4.56 vs. 3.66 for PAR_CVDs and 7.27 vs. 5.88 for PAR_stroke). No significant contribution was observed between oil-related behaviors and CVDs. The majority of participants were well-informed about appropriate preparation and consumption of fried foods but not a healthy behavior about salt intake. Considering the significant association of salt-related behaviors with hypertension, conducting educational programs by healthcare practitioners in the population is suggested.

Helicobacter pylori infection in Iran: demographic, endoscopic and pathological factors

Background

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is the most important risk factor for gastritis and peptic ulcer. However, factors other than H. pylori are involved in its pathogenesis. In the current study, we aimed to compare the clinical manifestations and endoscopic and histopathological findings of patients with and without H. pylori infection.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, 233 patients with dyspepsia, referred for endoscopy, were examined regarding the presence of H. pylori infection. During an endoscopic exam, 5 biopsy specimens were taken from the stomach. The criteria for the presence of H. pylori infection was the presence and identification of bacteria in pathology. Two groups of H. pylori-positive and H. pylori-negative patients were compared regarding their demographic, endoscopic, and pathological findings.

Results

Of 233 patients, 154 (66.1%) were non-smokers, 201 (86.3%) were not alcohol users, and 153 (65.7%) used tap water. The most common symptom, reported in 157 (67.4%) patients, was epigastric pain. There was a significant difference between patients with and without H. pylori infection in terms of the educational status, occupational status, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, and some gastrointestinal symptoms. Also, there was a significant relationship between the endoscopic and pathological findings of patients with H. pylori.

Conclusions

The results of the present study revealed that H. pylori infection was not associated with sex, alcohol consumption, or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. The role of H. pylori in the pathophysiology of peptic ulcer was clarified. Also, there was a significant difference in the endoscopic and pathological findings of patients with H. pylori.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples of patients with COVID-19: a hospital-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The persistence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in the body fluids of patients with the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may increase the potential risk of viral transmission. There is still uncertainty on whether the recommended quarantine duration is sufficient to reduce the risk of transmission. This study aimed to investigate the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples of patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

In this hospital-based longitudinal study, 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recruited between March 2020 and August 2020 in Guilan Province, north of Iran. Nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples were obtained from each participant at the time of hospital admission, upon discharge, 1 week after discharge, and every 2 weeks until all samples were negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. A survival analysis was also performed to identify the duration of viral persistence.

RESULTS

The median duration of viral RNA persistence in the nasopharyngeal samples was 8 days from the first positive RT-PCR result upon admission (95% CI 6.91-9.09); the maximum duration of viral shedding was 25 days from admission. Positive blood, urine, and stool RT-PCR results were detected in 24%, 7%, and 6% of the patients, respectively. The median duration of viral persistence in the blood, urine, and stool samples was 7 days (95% CI 6.07-7.93), 6 days (95% CI 4.16-8.41), and 13 days (95% CI 6.96-19.4), respectively. Also, the maximum duration of viral persistence in the blood, urine, and stool samples was 17, 11, and 42 days from admission, respectively.

CONCLUSION

According to the present results, immediately after the hospitalized patients were discharged, no evidence of viral genetic materials was found. Therefore, appropriate treatments were selected for the patients at this hospital. However, we recommend further investigations on a larger sample size in multi-center and prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the effects of different drugs on the shedding of the virus through body secretions.

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples of patients with COVID-19: a hospital-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The persistence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in the body fluids of patients with the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may increase the potential risk of viral transmission. There is still uncertainty on whether the recommended quarantine duration is sufficient to reduce the risk of transmission. This study aimed to investigate the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples of patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

In this hospital-based longitudinal study, 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recruited between March 2020 and August 2020 in Guilan Province, north of Iran. Nasopharyngeal, blood, urine, and stool samples were obtained from each participant at the time of hospital admission, upon discharge, 1 week after discharge, and every 2 weeks until all samples were negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. A survival analysis was also performed to identify the duration of viral persistence.

RESULTS

The median duration of viral RNA persistence in the nasopharyngeal samples was 8 days from the first positive RT-PCR result upon admission (95% CI 6.91-9.09); the maximum duration of viral shedding was 25 days from admission. Positive blood, urine, and stool RT-PCR results were detected in 24%, 7%, and 6% of the patients, respectively. The median duration of viral persistence in the blood, urine, and stool samples was 7 days (95% CI 6.07-7.93), 6 days (95% CI 4.16-8.41), and 13 days (95% CI 6.96-19.4), respectively. Also, the maximum duration of viral persistence in the blood, urine, and stool samples was 17, 11, and 42 days from admission, respectively.

CONCLUSION

According to the present results, immediately after the hospitalized patients were discharged, no evidence of viral genetic materials was found. Therefore, appropriate treatments were selected for the patients at this hospital. However, we recommend further investigations on a larger sample size in multi-center and prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the effects of different drugs on the shedding of the virus through body secretions.

Amin HI, Madi D, Mahasha PW, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mayala BK, Meharie BG, Meheretu HAA, Meles HG, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirica A, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokonnon TM, Molokhia M, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Munro SB, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Ngalesoni FN, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Omonisi AEE, Onwujekwe OE, Orisakwe OE, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Patel UK, Pathak M, Patton GC, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pribadi DRA, Quazi Syed Z, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao S, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renjith V, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Ribeiro AI, Ross JM, Rumisha SF, Sagar R, Sahu M, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Samy AM, Sathian B, Schutte AE, Seidu AA, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahbaz M, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Sheikh A, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shivakumar KM, Sidemo NB, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Soltani S, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Spurlock EE, Sufiyan MB, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tamiru AT, Tanser FC, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Tessema ZT, Thakur B, Tolani MA, Topor-Madry R, Torrado M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tsai AC, Tsegaye GW, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Vardavas C, Violante FS, Vo B, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Ward P, Werdecker A, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wondmeneh TG, Yamada T, Yaya S, Yeshaw Y, Yeshitila YG, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yosef T, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi SS, Zaki L, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zewdie DT, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Dwyer-Lindgren L. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Epidemiologic Profile of Hypertension in Northern Iranian Population: The PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

Background

Estimates region-related prevalence of hypertension and attempts to identify its related factors at the district levels are required for prevention and management of hypertension.

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemic features and related factors of hypertension and its awareness, treatment, and control rates among the northern Iranian population.

Methods

It was a community based cross-sectional study based on data from PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS). In total, 10,520 participants (aged 35-70 years) from the Guilan Province in northern Iran included in this study, between October 8, 2014, and January 20, 2017. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or a prior diagnosis of hypertension or being on antihypertensive medication. Potential correlates of hypertension and its awareness, treatment and control were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression adjusted for demographic factors, anthropometric characteristics, lifestyle variables, past medical history, and laboratory data.

Results

The prevalence of hypertension was 43.2% and the hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rate were 53.4%, 49.8%, and 73.7%, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that older age, urbanization, lower education, overweight and obesity, lower physical activity, prediabetes and diabetes, cardiovascular disease, psychiatric disorder, positive family history of hypertension and raised serum creatinine were independently associated with presence of hypertension. Awareness of hypertension was greater in the female sex, older age, rural residency, higher education and patient with comorbidities. Older age, rural residency and comorbidities were associated with treatment of hypertension. Control of hypertension was better among younger age, higher education, normal weight and higher physical activity.

Conclusion

Hypertension is highly prevalent in the northern Iranian population. About half of affected persons are unaware of their disease and untreated. Modifying risk factors (such as weight lose and increase physical activity) and increasing hypertension awareness (by screening) is essential for primary and secondary prevention of high blood pressure in this population, especially in urban areas and among males, younger ages, and less educated.

Epidemiologic profile of viral hepatitis B and C in North of Iran: results from PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis B (HB) and C (HC) are two severe viral infectious diseases with a deleterious impact on global health. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of HB and HC in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies of the Iranian Adults (PERSIAN) Guilan Cohort Study using immunological and molecular methods.

RESULTS

The blood samples were obtained from 10,520 enrolled participants. Complete biochemical and hematological tests, as well as urine analysis, were assessed. The presence of HBsAg, anti-HBs, anti-HBc, and anti-HCV antibodies for all participant and HBeAg and anti-HBe antibodies for HB-positive patients were evaluated. Moreover, HB genomic DNA and HC genomic RNA were extracted from serum samples of HB-positive patients. The real-time PCR assay was employed to quantify the gene copies of hepatitis B and C viruses. HC genotyping was also performed. The prevalence of HB and HC was 0.24% (95% CI 0.16-0.35) and 0.11% (95% CI 0.06-0.19), respectively. Rural participants were significantly more HB-positive than the urban people (P = 0.045), while males were significantly more HC-positive than the females (P = 0.013). The prevalence of HB and HC in this area were lower than those of other geographical locations of Iran, which may be due to different lifestyles or other unknown reasons.