The influence of the post-Chernobyl fallout on birth defects and abortion rates in Austria

OBJECTIVES

We analyzed the influence of the radioactive fallout after the Chernobyl disaster on the rate and regional distribution of birth defects and abortion rates in southern Austria.

STUDY DESIGN

During 1985 to 1989 a total of 66,743 births was monitored. Twelve sources provided data on 1695 cases of birth defects, 1579 of which were suitable for analysis. All cases were analyzed in terms of their calculated conception date and divided into three main groups according to their vulnerable phase of embryogenesis, spermatogenesis, and oogenesis. To study possible regional changes, the findings were plotted in 17 political subdistricts. The overall abortion rate and the counseling frequency at termination clinics was determined.

RESULTS

No significant changes in the incidence of birth defects, abortion rate, or counseling rate at pregnancy termination clinics were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessing the teratologic potential of low-dose radiation is difficult and requires adequate grouping of birth defects, sufficient baseline data, and highly reliable registries.

Seasonality in tropical AIDS: a geographical analysis

This paper presents evidence that the growth rate of the AIDS epidemic at the district level in Uganda, Central Africa, displays a seasonally recurring geographical pattern, with epidemic acceleration in some areas of the country in the first 8 months of each year. The spatial and temporal variations in acceleration appear to be correlated with the predominant agricultural systems in different parts of Uganda. Based upon the frequently hypothesized relationship between malnourishment and the progression to clinical AIDS in HIV-infected people, it is suggested that the variations in epidemic speed reflect the seasonal patterns of nutritional deficiency which occur under some tropical agricultural systems. These preliminary findings require further verification since they have important implications for directing nutrition-related remedial responses to the AIDS epidemic in tropical countries where malnutrition and endemic HIV infection coincide.

Teenage conception and contraception in the English regions

Nationally available data on teenage fertility, family planning care and mortality were analysed to determine the relationship between teenage conception, availability of abortion and family planning care, and an indicator of socioeconomic disadvantage--the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR). In the 14 regions of England the strongest correlate of teenage conception and of the proportion of teenage conceptions aborted was female all-causes SMR. High levels of provision of NHS abortion services and uptake of family planning clinic care did not significantly reduce teenage fertility. Provision of traditional family planning services obviously plays an important role in preventing teenage pregnancy, but innovation in this service coupled with a concerted effort to reduce social disadvantage might have a greater impact on teenage fertility in England.

An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties

The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."

Population change and its components in Pennsylvania, 1980-1990

The author analyzes patterns of population growth in Pennsylvania by county. "Although Pennsylvania's population increased only slightly from 1980-1990, the pattern of change portrays noteworthy growth in many counties in the eastern half of the Commonwealth and decline throughout much of the west.... Analysis of the components of change--fertility, mortality, and net-migration--reveals significant differences in the role played by reproductive change in the demographic equation among counties which grew in population and, to a lesser extent, among those which declined. Changes in numbers of inhabitants and their components are related to location and selected demographic, social, and economic characteristics of the county populations."

Family planning, obstetrical and gynecological health care provision in the Soviet Far East

The Soviet model for both obstetrical and gynecological care and family planning provision seems entrenched in the Soviet Far East as found during a July 1991 visit to the Magadan and Chukotka Regions. Modern birth control is minimally practiced, but does include use of the older Soviet Loop intrauterine contraceptive device (IUD), recent introduction of the new Soviet Copper-T IUD and sporadic availability of condoms and foreign made birth control pills. Without male or female surgical sterilizations being performed, the consequence is that the major form of family planning is first trimester abortion. During this visit, I introduced the use of the NORPLANT Subdermal Contraceptive System and the Copper-T380A IUD to physicians at Anadry and Pevek regional hospitals. Gynecological surgery was also performed and fairly typical ob-gyn care units were toured. Ob-Gyn physicians in the Soviet Far East were found to be highly motivated. They look to the West for help in upgrading family planning and ob-gyn health care in the face of severe shortages after a half decade of perestroika.