Non-invasive prediction of liver-related events in patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease after oral antivirals

Non-invasive tools for compensated advanced chronic liver disease and portal hypertension after Baveno VII - an update

Non-invasive tests (NITs) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in particular, have entered clinical practice over 20 years ago as point-of-care tests to diagnose liver fibrosis in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. Since then, NITs use has evolved thanks to a large number of studies in all major etiologies of liver disease, and they have become important tools to stratify the risk of portal hypertension and liver-related events. The Baveno VII consensus workshop provided several novel recommendations regarding the use of well-established and novel NITs in the specific setting of portal hypertension screening, diagnosis and follow-up. The Baveno VII expert panels paid special attention to summarizing the existing data into simple clinical rules able to guide clinicians in their practice. The "rule of five" for LSM is a tool to stratify the risk of liver-related events, and LSM alone or in combination with platelet count, can be used now to rule-in and rule-out compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and clinically significant portal hypertension, as well as to rule-out high-risk varices. Use of NITs in obese subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients with viral hepatitis C that has been successfully treated, require specific knowledge. This review will update the reader on these aspects.

Who Should Not Be Surveilled for HCC Development after Successful Therapy with DAAS in Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C? Results of a Long-Term Prospective Study

Background and aims: The identification of patients with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)-positive advanced chronic liver disease (aCLD) successfully treated by Direct Acting Antiviral Agents (DAAs) who really benefit from Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs is still a matter of debate. We performed a long-term prospective cohort study on F3-F4 HCV-positive patients achieving Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) after DAAs treatment in order to identify patients who can safely suspend surveillance. Methods: 1000 patients with HCV-positive aCLD obtaining SVR by DAAs from January 2015 to December 2017 were divided into four groups according to baseline elastographic, ultrasonographic, clinical and biochemical features: (1) Group 1: 324 patients with Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (2) Group 2: 133 patients with LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5 (3) Group 3: 158 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (4) Group 4: 385 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5. FIB-4 and APRI scores were calculated at baseline and at SVR achievement. Each patient was surveiled twice-yearly by ultrasound for a median follow-up of 48 months. Results: among Group 1 patients, 1/324 (0.3%) developed HCC (0.09/100 patients/year [PY]), compared to 6/133 (4.5%) Group 2 patients (1.22/100 PY, p = 0.0009), 10/158 (6.3%) Group 3 patients (1.68/100 PY, p = 0.0001), 54/385 (14.0%) Group 4 patients (4.01/100 PY, p < 0.0001). HCC incidence was significantly lower in Group 2 compared to Group 3 (p = 0.004) and in Group 3 compared to Group 4 (p = 0.009). HCC risk fell in patients showing a decrease of FIB-4/APRI scores. Conclusions: the risk of HCC occurrence is negligible in about 90% of HCV-positive patients with baseline LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa plus FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 achieving SVR. Among this particular subset of patients, FIB-4/APRI scores may represent an accurate and inexpensive tool to distinguish patients not needing long-term HCC surveillance.

Comparing Predictability of Non-invasive Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tools including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) or FIB-4, assessed before or after direct acting antivirals (DAA), have been suggested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

This study aims to compare predictability of HCC by these methods at different time points, to validate the HCC surveillance suggestion by guidelines, and to propose personalized strategy.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C whose LSM and FIB-4 were available at pretherapy and after sustained virological response (SVR) were enrolled. Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) was defined as pretherapy LSM ≥ 10 kPa or FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 or ultrasound signs of cirrhosis plus platelet count < 150,000/μL. The predictabilities were compared by area under ROC. The cumulative HCC incidences were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Among 466 ACLD patients, 40 patients developed HCC during a follow-up duration of 26.8 months. Comparable predictive performances for HCC between LSM and FIB-4 at pretherapy and SVR were noted. By guidelines suggestion using pretherapy LSM = 10 kPa (advanced fibrosis) and 13 kPa (cirrhosis) for risk stratification, the annual HCC incidences of those with LSM of < 10, 10-12.9 and ≥ 13 kPa were 1.1, 3.6, and 5.0%, respectively. Combination of baseline LSM < 12 kPa and SVR FIB-4 < 3.7 could further stratify relatively low risk of HCC in ACLD patients of annal incidence of 1.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLD patients who met advanced fibrosis but not cirrhosis by guidelines' cut-offs still posed high risk of HCC. Baseline LSM with SVR FIB-4 can be applied to stratify low, intermediate, and high risk of HCC for personalizing surveillance strategies after SVR.

Liver-related complications before and after successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in people with inherited bleeding disorders

INTRODUCTION

With availability of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), most persons with inherited bleeding disorders are currently cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The risk of liver-related complications following HCV cure has not been reported for this population.

AIM

Reporting liver-related complications during long-term chronic HCV infection and following sustained virological response (SVR) in this population.

METHODS

Retrospective follow-up of a prospective single-centre cohort of HCV antibody-positive persons with inherited bleeding disorders. Primary endpoint was liver-related complications [hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), decompensated cirrhosis, bleeding gastroesophageal varices]. Liver-related complications were reported separately during chronic HCV and following SVR, stratified for interferon-based and DAA-based SVR.

RESULTS

In total 309/381 (81%) HCV antibody-positive individuals developed chronic HCV infection. Median follow-up was 44 years [interquartile range (IQR): 34-50]. Liver-related complications occurred in 36/309 (12%) of individuals with chronic HCV infection after median 31 years of chronic infection. Of 199 individuals with SVR, 97 were cured with interferon-based regimens and 102 with DAA after median infection durations of 29 and 45 years, respectively. At end of follow-up, respectively, 21% and 42% had advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. Post-SVR, seven (4%) individuals had a liver-related complication, mainly HCC (n = 4). Incidence of liver-related complications per 100 patient-years post-SVR follow-up was .2 for interferon-cured and 1.0 for DAA-cured individuals (p = .01).

CONCLUSION

Successful HCV treatment does not eliminate the risk of liver-related complications in persons with inherited bleeding disorders. Due to higher baseline risk, incidence was higher after DAA than interferon-based SVR. We advise continuing HCC surveillance post-SVR in all with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.

Fucosylated haptoglobin is a novel predictive marker of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus elimination in patients with advanced liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced fibrosis are at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We previously reported that serum fucosylated haptoglobin (Fuc-Hp) levels increase as the disease progresses from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis and then HCC. However, it remains unclear whether serum Fuc-Hp levels can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence after a sustained virological response (SVR) is achieved with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

METHODS

Among 3,550 patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with DAAs at Osaka University Hospital and related hospitals, the stored sera of 140 patients who were diagnosed with F3 or F4 by liver biopsy before DAA treatment, achieved SVR, and had no history of HCC were available at both baseline and the end of treatment (EOT). We measured the Fuc-Hp levels in these samples.

RESULTS

The median serum levels of Fuc-Hp at EOT were significantly lower than those at baseline. During the 54.4-month follow-up period, 16 of 140 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that high Fuc-Hp at EOT, high body mass index (BMI), and low albumin at EOT were independent risk factors for HCC occurrence. Patients with all three factors-high Fuc-Hp, high BMI, and low albumin-had a higher incidence of HCC than patients without these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum Fuc-Hp levels at EOT were an independent risk factor for HCC occurrence after SVR. Combined with BMI and albumin, Fuc-Hp can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence among those with advanced fibrosis.

Update on the role of elastography in liver disease

The diagnosis of liver fibrosis and the assessment of its severity are important to provide appropriate management, to determine the prognosis or the need for surveillance. Currently, for fibrosis staging, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with the shear wave elastography (SWE) techniques is considered a reliable substitute for liver biopsy in several clinical scenarios. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that stiffness value is a biomarker of diffuse liver disease that must be interpreted taking into consideration anamnesis, clinical and laboratory data. In patients with diffuse liver disease, it is more clinically relevant to determine the likelihood of advanced disease rather than to obtain an exact stage of liver fibrosis using a histologic classification. In this regard, a 'rule of five' for LSMs with vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and a 'rule of four' for LSMs with the acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI)-based techniques have been proposed. In patients with advanced chronic liver disease (CLD), the risk of liver decompensation increases with increasing liver stiffness value. SWE has been proposed as a tool to predict the risk of death or complications in patients with CLD. LSM by VCTE combined with platelets count is a validated non-invasive method for varices screening, with very good results in terms of invasive procedures being spared. ARFI-based techniques also show some promising results in this setting. LSM, alone or combined in scores or algorithms with other parameters, is used to evaluate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence. Due to the high prevalence of CLD, screening the population at risk is of interest but further studies are needed.

Effectiveness of Direct-acting Agents After Liver Transplantation and Regression of Biomarkers Post-HCV Treatment: A Real-life Study in Rio de Janeiro

BACKGROUND

Data concerning hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment using direct-acting agents (DAAs) post liver transplantation (LT) remains scarce in low- and average-income countries.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of post-LT HCV treatment using DAAs in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), and to assess the course of hepatic biomarkers after sustained virological response (SVR).

METHODS

Data from LT recipients with recurrent HCV treated using DAAs was retrospectively analyzed. HCV was defined by detectable HCV-RNA with elevated aminotransferases and/or histological signs of infection on liver biopsy post LT. SVR was defined as undetectable HCV-RNA 12 weeks after the end of treatment. Aspartate-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) were calculated before treatment and after SVR.

RESULTS

116 patients (63% male, median age 62 years, 75% genotype 1 and 62% with hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] prior to LT) were included. Cirrhosis was identified in the allograft of 21 subjects (18%). The overall SVR was 96.6% without differences in SVR proportion according to clinical/demographic characteristics, genotype or presence of cirrhosis. SVR rates were similar in individuals with and without HCC pre-LT (95.8% [95% CI: 87.6-98.7] vs. 97.7% [95% CI: 85.0-99.7%], p = 0.588). No serious adverse events were observed and the use of ribavirin was associated with at least one adverse event (OR = 8.71 [95% CI: 3.17-23.99]). SVR was associated with regression of APRI (OR = 26.00 [95% CI 4.27-1065.94]) and FIB-4 (OR = 15.00 [95% CI: 2.30-631.47]).

CONCLUSION

Post-LT HCV treatment with DAAs was safe and effective and associated with a significant decrease in hepatic biomarker levels after SVR.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION

Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP).

METHODS

All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP.

RESULTS

The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from &lt;0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to &gt;10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ .

DISCUSSION

Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Posttreatment nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis scores for predicting liver-related complications in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral agents

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have a higher prevalence of hepatic steatosis and dyslipidaemia than healthy individuals. We analysed noninvasive fibrosis assessments, especially nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related noninvasive fibrosis tests, for predicting liver-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with CHC. This retrospective study enrolled 590 consecutive patients with CHC having a sustained virologic response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) therapy. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) exhibiting the highest value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was selected for comparison with the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). Of the 590 patients, 188 had metabolic syndrome. A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified total bilirubin at 3 or 6 months after DAA therapy (PW12), NFS at PW12 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.125, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.058-4.267, p = .034) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at PW12 (HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005-1.142, p = .034) as the independent predictors of liver-related complications in all patients. In patients with metabolic syndrome, NFS and AFP values at PW12 were independent predictors of liver-related complications and HCC occurrence. Time-dependent NFS AUROC values at PW12 for 1-, 2- and 3-year liver-related complications were higher than NFS values at baseline in patients with metabolic syndrome. NFS at baseline or PW12 is a more effective predictor of liver-related complications than FIB-4 values in all patients. NFS at PW12 may be a useful predictor of liver-related complications and HCC development in patients with CHC with an SVR to DAA therapy, especially in those with metabolic syndrome.

Targeting the effect of sofosbuvir on selective oncogenes expression level of hepatocellular carcinoma Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK pathway in Huh7 cell line

Direct acting antiviral agents are emerging line of treatment to eradicate Hepatitis C virus. Recent controversy over whether direct acting antiviral agents increase rate of hepatocellular carcinoma in HCV patients or prevent it, has increased the need to elaborate underlying mechanisms on molecular basis. This work was aimed to investigate the effect of sofosbuvir on the expression of selected oncogenes from the Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK pathway in Huh7 cell line. Results found concrete molecular evidence that sofosbuvir has significantly altered the expression of selected genes when huh7 cell line was treated with sofosbuvir. Nine genes related to HCC were found to be affected by sofosbuvir in a mixed effect manner. The relative expression of growth factors (VEGF, PDGFRB and HGF) was increased in sofosbuvir treated cell lines. The kinase family genes H-RAS, B-RAF, MET except MAPK1 were downregulated. Similarly, DUSP1 was upregulated and SPRY2 was slightly downregulated; both were negative feedback inhibitors of ERK signalling cascade. Sofosbuvir upregulated the growth factors and MAPK1 which suggests it to be a carcinogen. The downregulation of kinases and upregulation of DUSP1 make it an anticancer drug. Hence, the results from this study are important to prove that sofosbuvir neither reduce nor induce hepatocellular carcinoma.

Impact of antiviral therapy for disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in patients with chronic hepatitis C: Markov chain model analysis

BACKGROUND/AIM

Antiviral therapy advancements resulted in an era in which eradication of hepatitis C has become a goal, however, there are few reports on the long-term course of liver disease progression with antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Markov model to analyze disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in hepatitis C Patients.

METHODS

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 1432) were diagnosed between January 2012 and May 2021 in the Musashino Red Cross Hospital. Patients with other hepatitis virus co-infection, chronic liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the beginning of the study were excluded. A total of 618 patients with a 1-year or longer observation period were studied. The liver disease state was defined as chronic hepatitis (CH), compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC), decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC), and HCC.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis and high FIB-4 index (≥3.61) were 42 cases (6.8%) and 208 cases (33.6%), respectively at the start of the study. The 40 years estimated transition analysis of 40-year-old CH low FIB-4 level (<3.61) revealed that the proportion of CH low/high, CLC low/high, DLC low/high, and HCC were 10.83%/10.86%, 0.35%/2.64%, 0%/3.21% 72.11% in untreated unit and 47.83%/9.21%, 6.69%/1.32%, 0.70%/0.99%, 33.27% in treated unit, respectively. Antiviral therapy suppressed liver fibrosis, disease progression, and HCC development significantly.

CONCLUSION

Markov model analysis of hepatitis C virus patients showed the impact of antiviral therapy on the suppression of disease progression in the order of CH, CLC, and DLC.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

AIMS

Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit.

METHODS

Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification.

RESULTS

Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5-8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6-6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085-7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001-1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

Impact of non-invasive biomarkers on hepatology practice: Past, present and future

Over the last two decades, there have been tremendous advances in the non-invasive diagnosis and risk stratification of chronic liver diseases (CLDs). Non-invasive approaches are based on the quantification of biomarkers in serum samples or on the measurement of liver stiffness, using either ultrasound- or magnetic resonance-based elastography techniques. The fibrosis-4 index (non-patented) and enhanced liver fibrosis test (patented) are the most widely adopted serum markers, whereas vibration-controlled transient elastography is the most widely adopted elastography technique. In this review, we discuss the role of non-invasive tests in the current era, as well as their accuracy and how their use in clinical practice has changed the practice of hepatology, including identification of early cirrhosis in patients with risk factors for CLD, diagnosis of portal hypertension, establishing prognosis in compensated cirrhosis, guiding antiviral treatment, and screening for fibrosis and cirrhosis in primary care.

Screening and surveillance of oesophageal varices in patients with HCV-positive liver cirrhosis successfully treated by direct-acting antiviral agents

BACKGROUND & AIMS

limited evidence is available to guide hepatologists regarding endoscopic surveillance of oesophageal varices (EV) in Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)-positive cirrhotic patients achieving a sustained virologic response. To address these issues, we conducted a long-term prospective study on 427 HCV-positive cirrhotic patients successfully treated by Direct Antiviral Agents (DAAs).

METHODS

Patients were divided into two groups according to their baseline Baveno VI status: Group 1 (92, 21.5%, favourable Baveno VI status) and Group 2 (335, 78.5%, unfavourable Baveno VI status). Each patient underwent baseline endoscopy and was endoscopically monitored for a median follow-up of 65.2 months according to Baveno VI recommendations.

RESULTS

About 4.3% of Group 1 patients showed baseline EV compared with 30.1% of Group 2 patients (p < .0001). No patients belonging to Group 1 without baseline EV developed EV at follow-up endoscopy compared with 6.5% in Group 2 patients (p = .02); 69/107 (64.5%) patients with baseline EV showed small varices. During the endoscopic follow-up, EV disappeared/improved in 36 (33.6%), were stable in 39 (36.4%) and worsened in 32 (29.9%) patients, all belonging to Group 2 (p = .001). Improvement in Baveno VI status was observed in 118/335 (35.2%, p < .0001) of Group 2 patients and among those without pre-therapy EV, none developed EV throughout the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV-positive cirrhotic patients cured by DAAs showing baseline favourable Baveno VI status and no worsening during follow-up can safely avoid endoscopic screening and surveillance. Patients having unfavourable Baveno VI status without baseline EV who improve their status may suspend further endoscopic surveillance.

Liver and Spleen Stiffness Surveillance Through Elastography During and After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C

OBJECTIVES

Direct-acting antiviral agents achieve a high cure rate, resulting in early hepatic necroinflammatory resolution and sustained fibrosis regression. This study aimed to obtain longitudinal, concurrent within-subject measurements of liver stiffness (LS) and spleen stiffness (SS) and their correlates over time.

METHODS

Participants with hepatitis C (n = 592) receiving direct-acting antiviral-based therapy were monitored through point shear-wave elastography from the treatment baseline (TW0) across follow-up visits in terms of LS and SS.

RESULTS

Generalized linear mixed modeling indicated that all LS values (2301 visits) were negatively correlated with the follow-up times (all P < .05) from TW0 to 24 weeks (PW24) after the end of treatment (EOT) and positively correlated with baseline LS values (P < .001). The slopes of declines (preceding minus next) differed significantly (P < .001) between TW0-TW4 (treatment week 4) (0.060 [-0.050 to 0.225] meter/second/month [m/s/mo]) and TW4-EOT (0.010 [-0.030 to 0.075] m/s/mo). All SS values (1704 visits) were negatively correlated with time only at PW24 (P < .001) and positively correlated with baseline SS values (P < .001). The slopes of the SS values differed significantly (P < .001) only between EOT-PW12 (-0.010 [-0.110 to 0.083] m/s/mo) and PW12-PW24 (0.043 [-0.063 to 0.160] m/s/mo).

CONCLUSIONS

The biphasic fast-to-slow decline in LS occurred early in the on-treatment phase, which is consistent with the resolution of hepatic necroinflammation. The slow-to-fast decline in SS occurred off treatment. Future studies should investigate the association with regressions in liver fibrosis and portal hypertension.

HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by chronic hepatitis C who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We developed risk stratification algorithms for de novo HCC development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort.

METHODS

We evaluated the occurrence of de novo HCC in a derivation cohort of 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. We validated our results in 1,500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 patients with cACLD (4.6%, 1.45/100 patient-years) vs. 12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100 patient-years, p <0.001) developed de novo HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de novo HCC development during FU than pre-treatment values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP, alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin, accurately predicted de novo HCC development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with/without considering alcohol: 0.893/0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low- (~2/3 of patients) and high-risk (~1/3 of patients) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk: 0% vs. 16.5%) and validation (3.3% vs. 17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin (i.e., without AFP) also showed a robust performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol consumption, accurately stratified patients with cACLD based on their risk of de novo HCC after SVR. Approximately two-thirds were identified as having an HCC risk <1%/year in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC surveillance.

LAY SUMMARY

Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately two-thirds) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.

Liver cancer risk after HCV cure in patients with advanced liver disease without non-characterized nodules

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recognition of non-characterized liver nodules (NCLN) prior to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with HCV. The risk of HCC has not been defined in F3/F4 patients in whom NCLN have been ruled-out before starting DAAs and at sustained virological response (SVR). This study aimed to estimate HCC incidence in this population.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study including HCV-infected patients with F3/F4 fibrosis, without a history of HCC, and who achieved SVR after DAAs. Patients were only included if they had undergone ultrasound imaging that excluded the presence of HCC/NCLN within 30 days after SVR. All patients were evaluated every 6 months until developing primary liver cancer, death or withdrawal of informed consent. HCC incidence was expressed per 100 patient-years (/100PY). Adherence to screening program was calculated every 6 months for the first 48 months.

RESULTS

A total of 185 patients (63/122, F3/F4) were included. Among those with cirrhosis, 92% were Child-Pugh A and 42.7% had clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Albumin-bilirubin score was 1 in 84.9% and 2 in 15.1% of patients, respectively. The median clinical and radiologic follow-up was 52.4 months and 48 months, respectively. Ten patients developed HCC: HCC incidence was 1.46/100PY (95% CI 0.79-2.71) in the whole cohort, 2.24/100PY (95% CI 1.21-4.17) in F4 only and 3.63/100PY (95% CI 1.95-6.74) in patients with CSPH. No HCC was registered in patients with F3. Median time between SVR and HCC occurrence was 28.1 months; 12 non-primary liver cancers were also identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis without NCLN at SVR remain at risk of HCC development. The absence of HCC in patients with F3 reinforces their marginal cancer risk, but prospective studies are needed to exclude them from screening programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, without non-characterized liver nodules at sustained virologic response, remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma despite viral cure. However, the cancer risk after successful direct-acting antiviral treatment is marginal in patients with F3 fibrosis without non-characterized liver nodules. If confirmed in larger prospective studies, current screening recommendations may need to be revisited in this group of patients.

Clinical and Molecular Basis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Hepatitis C Virus Eradication

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arises in the background of chronic liver diseases, including hepatitis and liver cirrhosis caused by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. It is well known that HCV eradication using antiviral drugs can efficiently inhibit hepatocarcinogenesis. Recent advances in and development of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) drugs has revolutionized the treatment of HCV infection, and the vast majority of HCV patients can achieve HCV eradication using DAAs. However, mounting evidence clearly indicates that HCC inevitably occurs in a subset of patients after successful viral eradication using DAA therapy. Cancer is a genetic disease, and the accumulation of genetic and epigenetic aberrations may cause hepatocarcinogenesis in chronically damaged liver, even after virus elimination. In this review, we highlight HCC development after HCV eradication and discuss the current understanding of the molecular mechanisms of tumorigenesis after virus elimination, focusing on the genetic and epigenetic background of chronically damaged liver tissues.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making

Background and Aims

Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C.

Methods

We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2.

Results

The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models.

Conclusion

Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

The curing regimens of HCV: A SWOT analysis

The development of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) has revolutionized the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, enabling cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in more than 95% of cases. There are essentially no contraindications, so almost any patient can now be successfully treated. The result is the prevention or amelioration of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and extrahepatic manifestations. Consequently, the 2020 Nobel Prize in Medicine and Physiology was awarded for the discovery of HCV. Due to the high efficacy of therapy, even global HCV elimination is conceivable even without a vaccine. Here, we would like to venture a SWOT analysis of current HCV therapies aimed at HCV elimination.

HSD17B13 and other liver fat-modulating genes predict development of hepatocellular carcinoma among HCV-positive cirrhotics with and without viral clearance after DAA treatment

BACKGROUND

Genetic predisposition to accumulate liver fat (expressed by a polygenic risk score, GRS, based on the number of at-risk alleles of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and GCKR) may influence the probability of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis C treatment. Whether this holds true taking into account carriage of the HSD17B13:TA splice variant, also affecting lipogenesis, and achievement of viral clearance (SVR), is unknown.

METHODS

PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7, GCKR and HSD17B13 variants were determined in a cohort of 328 cirrhotic patients free of HCC before starting treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAA).

RESULTS

SVR in the study cohort was 96%. At the end of follow-up, N = 21 patients had been diagnosed an HCC; none of the genes included in the GRS was individually associated with HCC development. However, in a Cox proportional hazards model, a GRS > 0.457 predicted HCC independently of sex, diabetes, albumin, INR and FIB4. The fit of the model improved adding treatment outcome and carriage of the HSD17B13:TA splice variant, with sex, GRS > 0.457, HSD17B13:TA splice variant and failure to achieve an SVR (hazard ratio = 6.75, 4.24, 0.24 and 7.7, respectively) being independent predictors of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Our findings confirm that genes modulating liver fat and lipogenesis are important risk factors for HCC development among cirrhotics C treated with DAA.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a useful tool for assessing advanced liver fibrosis, an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatitis C (HCV) eradication. This study aimed to clarify the non-invasive factors associated with HCC following sustained virological response (SVR) and to identify the low-risk group. 567 patients without history of HCC who achieved SVR at 24 weeks (SVR24) after IFN-free treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCC and the risk factors were examined using pre-treatment and SVR24 data. The median observation period was 50.2 months. Thirty cases of HCC were observed, and the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 5.9%. In multivariate analysis, significant pre-treatment factors were age ≥ 71 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.402) and LSM ≥ 9.2 kPa (HR: 6.328); SVR24 factors were age ≥ 71 years (HR: 2.689) and LSM ≥ 8.4 kPa (HR: 6.642). In cases with age < 71 years and LSM < 8.4 kPa at the time of SVR24, the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was as low as 1.1%. Both pre-treatment LSM (≥ 9.2 kPa) and SVR24 LSM (≥ 8.4 kPa) and age (≥ 71 years) are useful in predicting the risk of HCC after SVR with IFN-free treatment. Identification of low-risk individuals may improve the efficiency of follow-up.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Hepatitis C: Problems to extinction and residual hepatic and extrahepatic lesions after sustained virological response

Loss of follow-up or reinfections hinder the expectations of hepatitis C eradication despite the existence of highly effective treatments. Moreover, the elimination of the infection does not imply the reversion of those chronic alterations derived from the previous infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV). This review analyzes the risk factors associated with loss to follow-up in diagnosis or treatment, and the possibility of reinfection. Likewise, it assesses the residual alterations induced by chronic HCV infection considering the liver alterations (inflammation, fibrosis, risk of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation) and, on the other hand, the comorbidities and extrahepatic manifestations (cryoglobulinemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, peripheral insulin resistance, and lipid, bone and cognitive alterations). Peculiarities present in subjects coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus are analyzed in each section.

Regression of liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma development after HCV eradication with oral antiviral agents

We prospectively investigated the changes of liver stiffness (LS) and the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication using direct antiviral agents (DAA) over three years. LS measurement using transient elastography and serum fibrosis surrogate markers before treatment and at 48, 96, 144 weeks after starting direct-acting antivirals (DAA) according to the protocol were evaluated. Patients were also compared with historical cohort treated with pegylated interferon (peg-IFN). Sustained viral response (SVR) was observed in 95.8%. LS value in the patients achieving SVR significantly decreased over time (19.4 ± 12.9 kPa [baseline], 13.9 ± 9.1 kPa [48 weeks], 11.7 ± 8.2 kPa [96 weeks], 10.09 ± 6.23 [144 weeks], all p < 0.001). With matched analysis, the decrease in LS value was significantly larger in DAA group than peg-IFN group at both 48 weeks (29% vs. 9%) and 96 weeks (39% vs. 17%). The incidence of HCC was not significantly different between DAA and peg-IFN groups (5.5% vs. 5.4%) at 144 weeks. HCV eradication with DAA can lead to improvement of liver stiffness over time. The regression of fibrosis was greater in the group with DAA than peg-IFN.

Clinical trials registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02865369).

PNPLA3 is the dominant SNP linked to liver disease severity at time of first referral to a tertiary center

BACKGROUND

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes including PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13 and SERPINA1 have been identified as risk modifiers of progression in chronic liver disease (CLD). However, it is unclear whether genotyping for these risk variants is useful in clinical routine.

METHODS

Liver disease severity was assessed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and by presence of clinical manifestations of advanced-chronic liver disease (ACLD) in 779 consecutive CLD patients at the time of referral to a tertiary center. The associations of risk variants with CLD severity were calculated individually and in a combined model using a polygenic risk-score.

RESULTS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was the most common etiology (n = 511, 65.6%), and ACLD was present in 217 (27.9%) patients. The PNPLA3-G-allele remained independently associated with higher LSM (adjusted-B: 2.508 [95%CI: 0.887-4.130], P = 0.002) or the presence of ACLD (aOR: 1.562 [95%CI: 1.097-2.226], P = 0.013). SERPINA1-Z-allele was also independently associated with LSM (adjusted-B: 4.558 [95%CI: 1.182-7.934], P = 0.008), while the other risk alleles did not attain statistical significance. Combining these risk alleles into a polygenic risk-score was significantly associated with LSM (adjusted-B: 0.948 [95%CI: 0.153-1.743], P = 0.020).

CONCLUSION

PNPLA3 risk-variants are linked to liver disease severity at the time of first referral to an outpatient hepatology clinic.

A 2-Step Strategy Combining FIB-4 With Transient Elastography and Ultrasound Predicted Liver Cancer After HCV Cure

INTRODUCTION

Despite the direct-acting antiviral therapy has dramatically decreased the likelihood of having liver-related complications and extrahepatic outcomes, the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not totally eliminated after sustained virological response (SVR). We aimed to develop an easy-to-apply strategy to be adopted in clinical practice for accurately classifying the HCC risk in hepatitis C virus patients after SVR.

METHODS

Prospective and multicenter study enrolling hepatitis C virus patients with advanced fibrosis (transient elastography [TE] > 10 kPa) or cirrhosis by ultrasound showing SVR. They were followed up until HCC, liver transplantation, death, or until October 2020, which occurred first, with a minimum follow-up period of 6 months after SVR (follow-up: 49 [interquartile range 28-59] months).

RESULTS

Patients with cirrhosis by ultrasound represented 58% (611/1,054) of the overall cohort. During the study, HCC occurrence was 5.3% (56/1,054). Multivariate analyses revealed that Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) > 3.25 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.26 [1.08-4.73]; P = 0.030), TE (HR 1.02 [1.00-1.04]; P = 0.045) and cirrhosis by ultrasound (HR 3.15 [1.36-7.27]; P = 0.007) predicted HCC occurrence. Baseline HCC screening criteria (TE > 10 kPa or cirrhosis) identified patients at higher risk of HCC occurrence in presence of FIB-4 > 3.25 (8.8%; 44/498) vs FIB-4 < 3.25 (2.4%; 12/506), while those with only FIB > 3.25 had no HCC (0%; 0/50) (logRank 22.129; P = 0.0001). A combination of baseline FIB-4 > 3.25 and HCC screening criteria had an annual incidence >1.5 cases per 100 person-years, while the rest of the groups remained <1 case. Patients who maintained post-treatment FIB-4 > 3.25 and HCC screening criteria remained at the highest risk of HCC occurrence (13.7% [21/153] vs 4.9% [9/184]; logRank 7.396, P = 0.007).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that a two-step strategy combining FIB-4, TE, and ultrasound could help stratify HCC incidence risk after SVR.

Predictive Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment of HCV

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is still one of the major risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most frequent type of primary liver cancer. Direct-acting antivirals have substantially improved the cure rate of the virus, but the risk of hepatitis C virus-related HCC remains high, mainly in patients with advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. HCC is often asymptomatic and, therefore, remains undetected until the late tumor stage, which is associated with poor survival rates. Therefore, to improve the surveillance programs following HCV eradication, there is a need to summarize predictive factors or potential biomarkers, to specifically identify patients likely to develop HCC after direct-acting antiviral treatment. This review outlines the most recent data about different predictive factors for HCC development after direct-acting antiviral treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients, to improve the clinical management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus.

Should we continue surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma and gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and variceal bleeding are among the most common causes of liver-related mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend HCC and gastroesophageal varices (GEV) surveillance in patients with HCV infection and cirrhosis. However, since the recent introduction of direct-acting antivirals, most patients with cirrhosis are now cured of their chronic HCV infection. As virological cure is considered to substantially reduce the risk of cirrhosis-related complications, this review discusses the current literature concerning the surveillance of HCC and GEV in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with a focus on the setting following sustained virological response.

Fibrogenic signals persist in DAA-treated HCV patients after sustained virological response

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with HCV who achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) on direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy still need to be monitored for signs of liver disease progression. To this end, the identification of both disease biomarkers and therapeutic targets is necessary.

METHODS

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) purified from plasma of 15 healthy donors (HDs), and 16 HCV-infected patients before (T0) and after (T6) DAA treatment were utilized for functional and miRNA cargo analysis. EVs purified from plasma of 17 HDs and 23 HCV-infected patients (T0 and T6) were employed for proteomic and western blot analyses. Functional analysis in LX2 cells measured fibrotic markers (mRNAs and proteins) in response to EVs. Structural analysis was performed by qPCR, label-free liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and western blot.

RESULTS

On the basis of observations indicating functional differences (i.e. modulation of FN-1, ACTA2, Smad2/3 phosphorylation, collagen deposition) of plasma-derived EVs from HDs, T0 and T6, we performed structural analysis of EVs. We found consistent differences in terms of both miRNA and protein cargos: (i) antifibrogenic miR204-5p, miR181a-5p, miR143-3p, miR93-5p and miR122-5p were statistically underrepresented in T0 EVs compared to HD EVs, while miR204-5p and miR143-3p were statistically underrepresented in T6 EVs compared to HD EVs (p <0.05); (ii) proteomic analysis highlighted, in both T0 and T6, the modulation of several proteins with respect to HDs; among them, the fibrogenic protein DIAPH1 was upregulated (Log₂ fold change of 4.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these results highlight structural EV modifications that are conceivably causal for long-term liver disease progression in patients with HCV despite DAA-mediated SVR.

LAY SUMMARY

Direct-acting antivirals lead to virological cure in the majority of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. However, the risk of liver disease progression or complications in patients with fibrosis and cirrhosis remains in some patients even after virological cure. Herein, we show that extracellular vesicle modifications could be linked to long-term liver disease progression in patients who have achieved virological cure; these modifications could potentially be used as biomarkers or treatment targets in such patients.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in hepatitis C stage-3 fibrosis after sustained virological response with direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with chronic hepatitis C and stage 3 fibrosis are thought to remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virological response. We investigated this risk in a large cohort of patients with well-defined stage 3 fibrosis.

METHODS

We performed a multicentre, ambispective, observational study of chronic hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response after treatment with direct-acting antivirals started between January and December 2015. Baseline stage 3 was defined in a two-step procedure: we selected patients with transient elastography values of 9.5-14.5 kPa and subsequently excluded those with nodular liver surface, splenomegaly, ascites or collaterals on imaging, thrombopenia or esophago-gastric varices. Patients were screened twice-yearly using ultrasound.

RESULTS

The final sample comprised 506 patients (median age, 57.4 years; males, 59.9%; diabetes, 17.2%; overweight, 44.1%; genotype 3, 8.9%; HIV coinfection, 18.4%; altered liver values, 15.2%). Median follow-up was 33.7 (22.1-39.1) months. Five hepatocellular carcinomas and 1 cholangiocarcinoma were detected after a median of 29.4 months (95% CI: 26.8-39.3), with an incidence of 0.47/100 patients/year (95% CI: 0.17-1.01). In the multivariate analysis, only males older than 55 years had a significant higher risk (hazard ratio 7.2 [95% CI: 1.2-41.7; P = .029]) with an incidence of 1.1/100 patients/year (95% CI: 0.3-2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, well-defined cohort of patients with baseline hepatitis C stage-3 fibrosis, the incidence of primary liver tumours was low after sustained virological response and far from the threshold for cost-effectiveness of screening, except in males older than 55 years.

Elastography as a predictor of liver cirrhosis complications after hepatitis C virus eradication in the era of direct-acting antivirals

Chronic inflammation due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection leads to liver fibrosis and rearrangement of liver tissue, which is responsible for the development of portal hypertension (PH) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The advent of direct-acting antiviral drugs has revolutionized the natural history of HCV infection, providing an overall eradication rate of over 90%. Despite a significant decrease after sustained virological response (SVR), the rate of HCC and liver-related complications is not completely eliminated in patients with advanced liver disease. Although the reasons are still unclear, cirrhosis itself has a residual risk for the development of HCC and other PH-related complications. Ultrasound elastography is a recently developed non-invasive technique for the assessment of liver fibrosis. Following the achievement of SVR, liver stiffness (LS) usually decreases, as a consequence of reduced inflammation and, possibly, fibrosis. Recent studies emphasized the application of LS assessment in the management of patients with SVR in order to define the risk for developing the complications of chronic liver disease (functional decompensation, gastrointestinal bleeding, HCC) and to optimize long-term prognostic outcomes in clinical practice.

Dysmetabolism, Diabetes and Clinical Outcomes in Patients Cured of Chronic Hepatitis C: A Real-Life Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to examine the impact of features of dysmetabolism on liver disease severity, evolution, and clinical outcomes in a real‐life cohort of patients treated with direct acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. To this end, we considered 7,007 patients treated between 2014 and 2018, 65.3% with advanced fibrosis, of whom 97.7% achieved viral eradication (NAVIGATORE‐Lombardia registry). In a subset (n = 748), liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was available at baseline and follow‐up. Higher body mass index (BMI; odds ratio [OR] 1.06 per kg/m², 1.03‐1.09) and diabetes (OR 2.01 [1.65‐2.46]) were independently associated with advanced fibrosis at baseline, whereas statin use was protective (OR 0.46 [0.35‐0.60]; P < 0.0001 for all). The impact of BMI was greater in those without diabetes (P = 0.003). Diabetes was independently associated with less pronounced LSM improvement after viral eradication (P = 0.001) and in patients with advanced fibrosis was an independent predictor of the most frequent clinical events, namely de novo hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; hazard ratio [HR] 2.09 [1.20‐3.63]; P = 0.009) and cardiovascular events (HR 2.73 [1.16‐6.43]; P = 0.021). Metformin showed a protective association against HCC (HR 0.32 [0.11‐0.96]; P = 0.043), which was confirmed after adjustment for propensity score (P = 0.038). Diabetes diagnosis further refined HCC prediction in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease at high baseline risk (P = 0.024). Conclusion: Metabolic comorbidities were associated with advanced liver fibrosis at baseline, whereas statins were protective. In patients with advanced fibrosis, diabetes increased the risk of de novo HCC and of cardiovascular events. Optimization of metabolic comorbidities treatment by a multi‐disciplinary management approach may improve cardiovascular and possibly liver‐related outcomes.

Elastography is unable to exclude cirrhosis after sustained virological response in HCV-infected patients with advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis and transient elastography (TE) correlation in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) after the sustained virological response (SVR) is unknown.

AIMS

To evaluate TE accuracy at identifying cirrhosis 3 years after HCV-eradication.

METHODS

Prospective, multi-centric study including HCV-cACLD patients before direct-acting antivirals (DAA). Diagnostic accuracy of TE (area under ROC, AUROC) to identify cirrhosis 3 years after SVR was evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 746 HCV-infected patients (95.4% with TE ≥10 kPa), 76 (10.2%) underwent a liver biopsy 3 years after SVR. Before treatment, 46 (63%) showed a TE>15 kPa. The TE before DAA was the best variable for predicting cirrhosis (METAVIR, F4) after SVR (AUROC = 0.79). Liver function parameters, serological non-invasive tests (APRI and FIB-4), and TE values improved after SVR. However, liver biopsy 3 years after HCV elimination (median time = 38.4 months) showed cirrhosis in 41 (53.9%). Multivariate analysis (OR (95% CI), P) showed that HCV-genotype 3 (20.81 (2.12-201.47), .009), and TE before treatment (1.21 (1.09-1.34), <.001) were the only variables associated with cirrhosis after SVR. However, the accuracy of TE after SVR was poor (AUROC = 0.75) and 6 (27.3%) out of 22 patients with a TE <8 kPa had cirrhosis. Similar results were found with APRI and FIB-4 scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis is present, 3 years after SVR, in more than half of HCV-cACLD patients even with the normalisation of liver function parameters, serological non-invasive tests and TE values. The low diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive methods after SVR reinforces the need for long-term surveillance.

Kinetics of emergence of liver complications in hepatitis C virus infected patients and advanced fibrosis, with and without HIV-coinfection, after sustained virological response

OBJECTIVE

There is scarce available evidence on the distribution over time of liver complications emergence in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients who achieve sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based therapy. Therefore, we aimed at describing the kinetics of liver-related events appearance in this setting.

DESIGN

A multicentric prospective cohort study.

METHODS

HCV-monoinfected and HIV/HCV-coinfected patients from GEHEP-011 cohort, whose inclusion criteria were had achieved SVR with DAA-based therapy; liver stiffness prior to starting treatment at least 9.5 kPa; and available liver stiffness measurement at SVR. SVR was considered as the baseline time-point.

RESULTS

One thousand and thirty-five patients were included, 664 (64%) coinfected with HIV. Before DAA-based therapy, 63 (6.1%) individuals showed decompensated cirrhosis. After SVR, 51 (4.9%) patients developed liver complications. Median (Q1-Q3) time to the emergence of hepatic events was hepatic encephalopathy 11 (7-24) months, ascites 14 (6-29) months, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 17 (11-42) months and portal hypertension gastrointestinal bleeding (PHGB) 28 (22-38) months (P = 0.152). We define two profiles of liver complications: those emerging earlier (encephalopathy and ascites) and, those occurring continuously during the follow-up (HCC, PHGB) [median (Q1-Q3) time to emergence 12.7 (6.6-28.2) months vs. 25.4 (12.5-41.53) months, respectively (P = 0.026)].

CONCLUSION

The vast majority of HCV-infected patients who develop liver complications after reaching SVR with DAA do it within 3 years after SVR time-point. Specifically, hepatic encephalopathy and ascites do not usually emerge after this period. Conversely, HCC and PHGB may occur in longer term. It is critical to identify patients at risk of developing hepatic events to continue performing surveillance for them.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk after viral response in hepatitis C virus-advanced fibrosis: Who to screen and for how long?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection is associated with fibrosis progression, end-stage liver complications and HCC. Not surprisingly, HCV infection is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. After sustained virological response (SVR), the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma is not completely eliminated in patients with established cirrhosis or with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, lifelong surveillance is currently recommended. This strategy is likely not universally cost-effective and harmless, considering that not all patients with advanced fibrosis have the same risk of developing HCC. Factors related to the severity of liver disease and its potential to improve after SVR, the molecular and epigenetic changes that occur during infection and other associated comorbidities might account for different risk levels and are likely essential for identifying patients who would benefit from screening programs after SVR. Efforts to develop predictive models and risk calculators, biomarkers and genetic panels and even deep learning models to estimate the individual risk of HCC have been made in the direct-acting antiviral agents era, when thousands of patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis have reached SVR. These tools could help to identify patients with very low HCC risk in whom surveillance might not be justified. In this review, factors affecting the probability of HCC development after SVR, the benefits and risks of surveillance, suggested strategies to estimate individualized HCC risk and the current evidence to recommend lifelong surveillance are discussed.

Liver stiffness-based score at sustained virologic response predicts liver-related complications after eradication of hepatitis C virus

To determine whether liver stiffness (LS) and fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) index were useful in assessing the occurrence of liver-related complications (LRC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) had been administered. This retrospective study enrolled CHC patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA. A total of 697 (male/female: 294/403, mean age: 63.8 year) patients with measured LS and complete lab data at SVR were enrolled, followed, and analyzed. In a median follow-up of 21.4 months after SVR, 39 patients developed LRC including 28 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the 30-month cumulative incidence of LRC and HCC being 7.7% and 5.1%, respectively. Predictions of occurrence of LRC and HCC were 0.820 and 0.774 for LS, and 0.775 and 0.737 for Fib-4, with optimal cutoffs of LS and Fib-4 being 14.5 kPa and 2.9 for LRC prediction. In multivariate analysis, LS was associated with the occurrence of LRC (hazard ratio: 3.97, 95% confidence interval [1.866, 8.446], p < 0.001) after adjustment for Fib-4 and diabetes. A risk-score system combining LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was developed for LRC risk assessment. Patients were stratified into low- (score 0-1), intermediate- (score 2-3), and high-risk (score 4) groups with LRC cumulative incidences of 1.7%, 14.9%, and 36.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). For patients with CHC after DAA, the risk scoring system based on LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was useful to assess the risk of LRC development during follow-up; accordingly, it would be advantageous for clinicians to set up more personalized and cost-effective strategies of surveillance.

Diabetes Mellitus Increases the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are still at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virologic response (SVR). This study aimed to investigate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a potential predictive risk factor in developing de novo HCC in HCV-infected patients after DAA treatment. Methods: This study was registered on PROSPERO under registration number CRD42021230457. We performed a systematic search in four medical databases from inception through November 3rd, 2020. Studies were eligible if they reported on HCV-infected patients treated with DAAs and compared the frequency of de novo HCC in patients with and without DM. We calculated pooled odds ratios, unadjusted (UHR), and adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in meta-analysis. Results: We included 30 articles in our systematic review and meta-analysis. DM proved to be a significant risk factor of HCC in DAA-treated HCV patients in unadjusted (UHR = 1.44, CI: 1.15-1.79) and adjusted analyses (AHR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.62). In the group of patients achieving SVR after DAA therapy, DM increased the risk of HCC in unadjusted (UHR = 1.3, CI: 1.09-1.51) analysis; however, in adjusted results, the risk was non-significant (AHR = 1.07, CI: 0.89-1.28). In patients with advanced liver fibrosis, DM was a risk factor for HCC in adjusted (AHR = 1.36, CI: 1.03-1.8), but not in unadjusted analysis (UHR = 1.11, CI: 0.8-1.42). Conclusions: DM is an independent risk factor of de novo HCC after DAA treatment in HCV-infected patients. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=230457, identifier: CRD42021230457.

Risk Factors and Prevention of Viral Hepatitis-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cancer in the world, and its incidence is increasing yearly. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are important causes of HCC. Liver cirrhosis, age, sex, smoking and drinking, and metabolic risk factors will increase the risk of cancer in HBV/HCV patients. And viral load, APRI, FIB-4, and liver stiffness can all predict the risk of HCC in patients with viral infection. In addition, effective prevention strategies are essential in reducing the risk of HCC. The prevention of HCC involves mainly tertiary prevention strategies, while the primary prevention is based on standardized vaccine injections to prevent the occurrence of HBV/HCV. Eliminating the route of transmission and vaccination will lead to a decrease in the incidence of HCC. Secondary prevention involves effective antiviral treatment of HBV/HCV to prevent the disease from progressing to HCC, and tertiary prevention is actively treating HCC to prevent its recurrence.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on non-invasive tests for evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis - 2021 update

Non-invasive tests are increasingly being used to improve the diagnosis and prognostication of chronic liver diseases across aetiologies. Herein, we provide the latest update to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the use of non-invasive tests for the evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis, focusing on the topics for which relevant evidence has been published in the last 5 years.

Evaluation of long-term changes of aspartate—platelet ratio index, FIB4, and liver stiffness in chronic hepatitis C patients successfully treated by direct-acting antivirals

Background

A large number of chronic hepatitis C patients had been successfully treated by directly acting antivirals; therefore, strategies for the long-term follow-up of these patients have to be planned based on the post-treatment fibrosis stage—the main determinant of prognosis. In this study, we aim to evaluate changes in aspartate-platelet ratio index, FIB4, and liver stiffness in chronic hepatitis C patients who achieved SVR and ended treatment more than 1 year by DAAs.

Results

One hundred chronic hepatitis C patients who achieved SVR were enrolled at a median of 16 months after the end of treatment by DAAs. According to the baseline liver stiffness, 63 and 37 patients belonged to early (F0, F1, and F2) and advanced (F3 and F4) fibrosis stages, respectively. Both groups showed a decline of the degree of liver stiffness at follow-up compared to the baseline that was statistically significant in the early fibrosis group (5.9±1.5 vs 5.4±2.2 Kpcal, p=0.04), while measurements in the advanced group were (18±8.8 vs 15.9 ± 7.8 Kpcal, p=0.07). Also, serum biomarkers of fibrosis improved in both groups, where the recorded APRI and FIB4 before and after treatment were 0.42±0.3 vs 0.24±0.1, p<0.01 and 1±0.6 vs 0.93 ±0.5, p=0.1 in the early group and 0.85 ±0.5 vs 0.4±0.2, p <0.001 and 2.9±2.3 vs 1.8±1.4, p<0.02) in the advanced group, respectively. Changes in APRI and FIB4 correlated with changes in AST and ALT, but liver stiffness changes were not affected by changes in liver enzymes.

Conclusion

Although long-term improvement of APRI, FIB4, and liver stiffness scores could be achieved in chronic HCV patients after SVR by DAAS. High measurements of liver stiffness before treatment likely persist. We recommend transient elastography as a reliable tool for fibrosis assessment post-treatment.

Non-invasive tests for predicting liver outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis leads to liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection. Although non-invasive tests (NITs) are critical to early detection of the development of liver fibrosis, the prognostic role of NITs remains unclear due to the limited types of NITs and liver outcomes explored in previous studies.

AIM

To determine the prognostic value of NITs for risk stratification in CHC patients.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; no. CRD42019128176). The systematic review was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Search was performed using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases under a timeframe from the inception of the databases through February 25, 2020. We restricted our search to CHC cohort studies reporting an association between liver fibrosis assessed by NITs and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation, or mortality. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for each NIT were estimated using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed for NITs assessed at pre-treatment or post-treatment with sustained virologic response (SVR), treatment with either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct acting antiviral, Eastern or Western countries, and different cutoff points.

RESULTS

The present meta-analysis included 29 cohort studies, enrolling 69339 CHC patients. Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (APRI) score, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were found to have hepatocellular carcinoma predictive potential with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.91-3.23, I² = 96%], 4.24 (95%CI: 2.15-8.38, I² = 20%) and 7.90 (95%CI: 3.98-15.68, I² = 52%) and AUROCs of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73-0.89, I² = 77%), 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.87, I² = 68%), and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.63-0.96, I² = 90%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HR with a pre-treatment FIB-4 cutoff of 3.25 was 3.22 (95%CI: 2.32-4.47, I² = 80%). Pooled adjusted HRs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4, APRI, and LSM were 3.01 (95%CI: 0.32-28.61, I² = 89%), 9.88 (95%CI: 2.21-44.17, I² = 24%), and 6.33 (95%CI: 2.57-15.59, I² = 17%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HRs for LSM in patients with SVR following direct acting antiviral therapy was 5.55 (95%CI: 1.47-21.02, I² = 36%). Pooled AUROCs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4 and LSM were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.55-0.95, I² = 88%) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.66-1.03, I² = 88%), respectively. Additionally, FIB-4 and LSM were associated with overall mortality, with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.07 (95%CI: 1.49-2.88, I² = 27%) and 4.04 (95%CI: 2.40-6.80, I² = 63%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

FIB-4, APRI, and LSM showed potential for risk stratification in CHC patients. Cutoff levels need further validation.

Risk Factors for Liver Decompensation and HCC in HCV-Cirrhotic Patients after DAAs: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Simple Summary

The present study explored the predictors of the development of liver-related events in HCV cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR following antiviral therapy with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) during a follow-up of 24 months after SVR confirmation. Patients had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥14 kPa at baseline. We found that baseline liver stiffness ≥ 20 kPa and HCV genotype different from 1 were both independent predictors of liver decompensation, while only LSM ≥ 20 kPa was an independent predictor of HCC.

Abstract

Background: Prospective studies on predictors of liver-related events in cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR after DAAs are lacking. Methods: We prospectively enrolled HCV cirrhotic patients in four Italian centers between November 2015 and October 2017. SVR and no-SVR cases were compared according to the presence or absence of liver-related events during a 24-month follow-up. Independent predictors of liver-related events were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 706 subjects started DAAs therapy. SVR was confirmed in 687 (97.3%). A total of 61 subjects (8.9%) in the SVR group and 5 (26.3%) in the no-SVR group had liver-related events (p < 0.03). The incidence rate x 100 p/y was 1.6 for HCC, 1.7 for any liver decompensation, and 0.5 for hepatic death. Baseline liver stiffness (LSM) ≥ 20 kPa (HR 4.0; 95% CI 1.1–14.1) and genotype different from 1 (HR 7.5; 95% CI 2.1–27.3) were both independent predictors of liver decompensation. Baseline LSM > 20 KPa (HR 7.2; 95% CI 1.9–26.7) was the sole independent predictor of HCC. A decrease in liver stiffness (Delta LSM) by at least 20% at the end of follow-up was not associated with a decreased risk of liver-related events. Conclusion: Baseline LSM ≥ 20 kPa identifies HCV cirrhotic subjects at higher risk of liver-related events after SVR.