Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but fail to integrate agriculture and ecosystems. This failure to jointly consider these systems and associated externalities may underestimate climate change impacts or cause adaptation implementation surprises, such as causing adaptation status of some groups or ecosystems to be worsened. This work describes and motivates reasons why ecosystems and agriculture adaptation require an integrated analytical approach. Synthesis of current literature and examples from Texas are used to explain concepts and current challenges. Texas is chosen because of its high agricultural output that is produced in close interrelationship with the surrounding semi-arid ecosystem. We conclude that future effect and adaptation analyses would be wise to jointly consider ecosystems and agriculture. Existing paradigms and useful methodology can be transplanted from the sustainable agriculture and ecosystem service literature to explore alternatives for climate adaptation and incentivization of private agriculturalists and consumers. Researchers are encouraged to adopt integrated modeling as a means to avoid implementation challenges and surprises when formulating and implementing adaptation.

High-resolution distribution modeling of a threatened short-range endemic plant informed by edaphic factors

Short-range endemic plants often have edaphic specializations that, with their restricted distributions, expose them to increased risk of anthropogenic extinction.Here, we present a modeling approach to understand habitat suitability for Ricinocarpos brevis R.J.F.Hend. & Mollemans (Euphorbiaceae), a threatened shrub confined to three isolated populations in the semi-arid south-west of Western Australia. The model is a maximum entropy species distribution projection constructed on the basis of physical soil characteristics and geomorphology data at approximately 25 m2 (1 arc-second) resolution.The model predicts the species to occur on shallow, low bulk density soils that are located high in the landscape. The model shows high affinity (72.1% average likelihood of occurrence) for the known populations of R. brevis, as well as identifying likely locations that are not currently known to support the species. There was a strong relationship between the likelihood of R. brevis occurrence and soil moisture content that the model estimated at a depth of 20 cm.We advocate that our approach should be standardized using publicly available data to generate testable hypotheses for the distribution and conservation management of short-range endemic plant species for all of continental Australia.

Global change biology: A primer

Because of human action, the Earth has entered an era where profound changes in the global environment are creating novel conditions that will be discernable far into the future. One consequence may be a large reduction of the Earth's biodiversity, potentially representing a sixth mass extinction. With effective stewardship, the global change drivers that threaten the Earth's biota could be alleviated, but this requires clear understanding of the drivers, their interactions, and how they impact ecological communities. This review identifies 10 anthropogenic global change drivers and discusses how six of the drivers (atmospheric CO₂ enrichment, climate change, land transformation, species exploitation, exotic species invasions, eutrophication) impact Earth's biodiversity. Driver impacts on a particular species could be positive or negative. In either case, they initiate secondary responses that cascade along ecological lines of connection and in doing so magnify the initial impact. The unique nature of the threat to the Earth's biodiversity is not simply due to the magnitude of each driver, but due to the speed of change, the novelty of the drivers, and their interactions. Emphasizing one driver, notably climate change, is problematic because the other global change drivers also degrade biodiversity and together threaten the stability of the biosphere. As the main academic journal addressing global change effects on living systems, GCB is well positioned to provide leadership in solving the global change challenge. If humanity cannot meet the challenge, then GCB is positioned to serve as a leading chronicle of the sixth mass extinction to occur on planet Earth.

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Active coral restoration typically involves two interventions: crossing gametes to facilitate sexual larval propagation; and fragmenting, growing, and outplanting adult colonies to enhance asexual propagation. From an evolutionary perspective, the goal of these efforts is to establish self-sustaining, sexually reproducing coral populations that have sufficient genetic and phenotypic variation to adapt to changing environments. Here, we provide concrete guidelines to help restoration practitioners meet this goal for most Caribbean species of interest. To enable the persistence of coral populations exposed to severe selection pressure from many stressors, a mixed provenance strategy is suggested: genetically unique colonies (genets) should be sourced both locally as well as from more distant, environmentally distinct sites. Sourcing three to four genets per reef along environmental gradients should be sufficient to capture a majority of intraspecies genetic diversity. It is best for practitioners to propagate genets with one or more phenotypic traits that are predicted to be valuable in the future, such as low partial mortality, high wound healing rate, high skeletal growth rate, bleaching resilience, infectious disease resilience, and high sexual reproductive output. Some effort should also be reserved for underperforming genets because colonies that grow poorly in nurseries sometimes thrive once returned to the reef and may harbor genetic variants with as yet unrecognized value. Outplants should be clustered in groups of four to six genets to enable successful fertilization upon maturation. Current evidence indicates that translocating genets among distant reefs is unlikely to be problematic from a population genetic perspective but will likely provide substantial adaptive benefits. Similarly, inbreeding depression is not a concern given that current practices only raise first-generation offspring. Thus, proceeding with the proposed management strategies even in the absence of a detailed population genetic analysis of the focal species at sites targeted for restoration is the best course of action. These basic guidelines should help maximize the adaptive potential of reef-building corals facing a rapidly changing environment.

Evolution in the Anthropocene: Informing Governance and Policy

The Anthropocene biosphere constitutes an unprecedented phase in the evolution of life on Earth with one species, humans, exerting extensive control. The increasing intensity of anthropogenic forces in the twenty-first century has widespread implications for attempts to govern both human-dominated ecosystems and the last remaining wild ecosystems. Here, we review how evolutionary biology can inform governance and policies in the Anthropocene, focusing on five governance challenges that span biodiversity, environmental management, food and other biomass production, and human health. The five challenges are: ( a) evolutionary feedbacks, ( b) maintaining resilience, ( c) alleviating constraints, ( d) coevolutionary disruption, and ( e) biotechnology. Strategies for governing these dynamics will themselves have to be coevolutionary, as eco-evolutionary and social dynamics change in response to each other.

Islands in the desert: environmental distribution modelling of endemic flora reveals the extent of Pleistocene tropical relict vegetation in southern Arabia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Southern Arabia is a global biodiversity hotspot with a high proportion of endemic desert-adapted plants. Here we examine evidence for a Pleistocene climate refugium in the southern Central Desert of Oman, and its role in driving biogeographical patterns of endemism.

METHODS

Distribution data for seven narrow-range endemic plants were collected systematically across 195 quadrats, together with incidental and historic records. Important environmental variables relevant to arid coastal areas, including night-time fog and cloud cover, were developed for the study area. Environmental niche models using presence/absence data were built and tuned for each species, and spatial overlap was examined.

KEY RESULTS

A region of the Jiddat Al Arkad reported independent high model suitability for all species. Examination of environmental data across southern Oman indicates that the Jiddat Al Arkad displays a regionally unique climate with higher intra-annual stability, due in part to the influence of the southern monsoon. Despite this, the relative importance of environmental variables was highly differentiated among species, suggesting that characteristic variables such as coastal fog are not major cross-species predictors at this scale.

CONCLUSIONS

The co-occurrence of a high number of endemic study species within a narrow monsoon-influenced region is indicative of a refugium with low climate change velocity. Combined with climate analysis, our findings provide strong evidence for a southern Arabian Pleistocene refugium in Oman's Central Desert. We suggest that this refugium has acted as an isolated temperate and mesic island in the desert, resulting in the evolution of these narrow-range endemic flora. Based on the composition of species, this system may represent the northernmost remnant of a continuous belt of mesic vegetation formerly ranging from Africa to Asia, with close links to the flora of East Africa. This has significant implications for future conservation of endemic plants in an arid biodiversity hotspot.

How well do revegetation plantings capture genetic diversity?

Revegetation plantings are a key management tool for ecological restoration. Revegetation success is usually measured using ecological traits, however, genetic diversity should also be considered as it can influence fitness, adaptive capacity and long-term viability of revegetation plantings and ecosystem functioning. Here we review the global literature comparing genetic diversity in revegetation plantings to natural stands. Findings from 48 studies suggest variable genetic outcomes of revegetation, with 46% demonstrating higher genetic diversity in revegetation than natural stands and 52% demonstrating lower diversity. Levels of genetic diversity were most strongly associated with the number of source sites used-where information was available, 69% of studies showing higher genetic diversity in revegetation reported using multiple provenances, compared with only 33% for those with lower diversity. However, with a few exceptions, it was unclear whether differences in genetic diversity between revegetation and natural stands were statistically significant. This reflected insufficient reporting of statistical error and metadata within the published studies, which limited conclusions about factors contributing to patterns. Nonetheless, our findings indicate that mixed seed sourcing can contribute to higher genetic diversity in revegetation. Finally, we emphasize the type of metadata needed to determine factors influencing genetic diversity in revegetation and inform restoration efforts.

Demystifying Monarch Butterfly Migration

Every fall, millions of North American monarch butterflies undergo a stunning long-distance migration to reach their overwintering grounds in Mexico. Migration allows the butterflies to escape freezing temperatures and dying host plants, and reduces infections with a virulent parasite. We discuss the multigenerational migration journey and its evolutionary history, and highlight the navigational mechanisms of migratory monarchs. Monarchs use a bidirectional time-compensated sun compass for orientation, which is based on a time-compensating circadian clock that resides in the antennae, and which has a distinctive molecular mechanism. Migrants can also use a light-dependent inclination magnetic compass for orientation under overcast conditions. Additional environmental features, e.g., atmospheric conditions, geologic barriers, and social interactions, likely augment navigation. The publication of the monarch genome and the development of gene-editing strategies have enabled the dissection of the genetic and neurobiological basis of the migration. The monarch butterfly has emerged as an excellent system to study the ecological, neural, and genetic basis of long-distance animal migration.

Effects of land-use change on community diversity and composition are highly variable among functional groups

In order to understand how the effects of land-use change vary among taxa and environmental contexts, we investigate how three types of land-use change have influenced phylogenetic diversity (PD) and species composition of three functionally distinct communities: plants, small mammals, and large mammals. We found large mammal communities were by far the most heavily impacted by land-use change, with areas of attempted large wildlife exclusion and intense livestock grazing, respectively, containing 164 and 165 million fewer years of evolutionary history than conserved areas (~40% declines). The effects of land-use change on PD varied substantially across taxa, type of land-use change, and, for most groups, also across abiotic conditions. This highlights the need for taxa-specific or multi-taxa evaluations, for managers interested in conserving specific groups or whole communities, respectively. It also suggests that efforts to conserve and restore PD may be most successful if they focus on areas of particular land-use types and abiotic conditions. Importantly, we also describe the substantial species turnover and compositional changes that cannot be detected by alpha diversity metrics, emphasizing that neither PD nor other taxonomic diversity metrics are sufficient proxies for ecological integrity. Finally, our results provide further support for the emerging consensus that conserved landscapes are critical to support intact assemblages of some lineages such as large mammals, but that mosaics of disturbed land-uses, including both agricultural and pastoral land, do provide important habitats for a diverse array of plants and small mammals.

Conservation practitioners' understanding of how to manage evolutionary processes

Both academics and practitioners consider a lack of knowledge about evolutionary theory to be a general barrier to effectively managing genetic diversity. However, it is challenging to judge practitioners' level of understanding and how this influences their management decisions. Knowledge built through experience may be difficult for practitioners to articulate, but could nonetheless result in appropriate management strategies. To date, researchers have assessed only the explicit (formal) knowledge practitioners have of evolutionary concepts. To explore practitioners' understanding of evolutionary concepts, it is necessary to consider how they might apply explicit and implicit knowledge to their management decisions. Using an online survey, we asked Australian practitioners to respond to 2 common management scenarios in which there is strong evidence that managing genetic diversity can improve outcomes: managing small, isolated populations and sourcing seeds for restoration projects. In describing their approach to these scenarios, practitioners demonstrated a stronger understanding of the effective management of genetic diversity than the definitions of the relevant concepts. However, their management of genetic diversity within small populations was closer to best practice than for restoration projects. Moreover, the risks practitioners described in implementing best practice management were more likely to affect their approach to restoration than translocation projects. These findings provide evidence that strategies to build the capacity of practitioners to manage genetic diversity should focus on realistic management scenarios. Given that practitioners recognize the importance of adapting their practices and the strong evidence for the benefits of actively managing genetic diversity, there is hope that better engagement by evolutionary biologists with practitioners could facilitate significant shifts toward evolutionarily enlightened management.

A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change

Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.

Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability

Climate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation.

Conservation through the lens of (mal)adaptation: Concepts and meta-analysis

Evolutionary approaches are gaining popularity in conservation science, with diverse strategies applied in efforts to support adaptive population outcomes. Yet conservation strategies differ in the type of adaptive outcomes they promote as conservation goals. For instance, strategies based on genetic or demographic rescue implicitly target adaptive population states whereas strategies utilizing transgenerational plasticity or evolutionary rescue implicitly target adaptive processes. These two goals are somewhat polar: adaptive state strategies optimize current population fitness, which should reduce phenotypic and/or genetic variance, reducing adaptability in changing or uncertain environments; adaptive process strategies increase genetic variance, causing maladaptation in the short term, but increase adaptability over the long term. Maladaptation refers to suboptimal population fitness, adaptation refers to optimal population fitness, and (mal)adaptation refers to the continuum of fitness variation from maladaptation to adaptation. Here, we present a conceptual classification for conservation that implicitly considers (mal)adaptation in the short-term and long-term outcomes of conservation strategies. We describe cases of how (mal)adaptation is implicated in traditional conservation strategies, as well as strategies that have potential as a conservation tool but are relatively underutilized. We use a meta-analysis of a small number of available studies to evaluate whether the different conservation strategies employed are better suited toward increasing population fitness across multiple generations. We found weakly increasing adaptation over time for transgenerational plasticity, genetic rescue, and evolutionary rescue. Demographic rescue was generally maladaptive, both immediately after conservation intervention and after several generations. Interspecific hybridization was adaptive only in the F1 generation, but then rapidly leads to maladaptation. Management decisions that are made to support the process of adaptation must adequately account for (mal)adaptation as a potential outcome and even as a tool to bolster adaptive capacity to changing conditions.

No local adaptation in leaf or stem xylem vulnerability to embolism, but consistent vulnerability segmentation in a North American oak

Vulnerability to embolism varies between con-generic species distributed along aridity gradients, yet little is known about intraspecific variation and its drivers. Even less is known about intraspecific variation in tissues other than stems, despite results suggesting that roots, stems and leaves can differ in vulnerability. We hypothesized that intraspecific variation in vulnerability in leaves and stems is adaptive and driven by aridity. We quantified leaf and stem vulnerability of Quercus douglasii using the optical technique. To assess contributions of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity to within-species variation, we quantified the vulnerability of individuals growing in a common garden, but originating from populations along an aridity gradient, as well as individuals from the same wild populations. Intraspecific variation in water potential at which 50% of total embolism in a tissue is observed (P₅₀ ) was explained mostly by differences between individuals (>66% of total variance) and tissues (16%). There was little between-population variation in leaf/stem P₅₀ in the garden, which was not related to site of origin aridity. Unexpectedly, we observed a positive relationship between wild individual stem P₅₀ and aridity. Although there is no local adaptation and only minor phenotypic plasticity in leaf/stem vulnerability in Q. douglasii, high levels of potentially heritable variation within populations or strong environmental selection could contribute to adaptive responses under future climate change.

Genomic Analysis of Picochlorum Species Reveals How Microalgae May Adapt to Variable Environments

Understanding how microalgae adapt to rapidly changing environments is not only important to science but can help clarify the potential impact of climate change on the biology of primary producers. We sequenced and analyzed the nuclear genome of multiple Picochlorum isolates (Chlorophyta) to elucidate strategies of environmental adaptation. It was previously found that coordinated gene regulation is involved in adaptation to salinity stress, and here we show that gene gain and loss also play key roles in adaptation. We determined the extent of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) from prokaryotes and their role in the origin of novel functions in the Picochlorum clade. HGT is an ongoing and dynamic process in this algal clade with adaptation being driven by transfer, divergence, and loss. One HGT candidate that is differentially expressed under salinity stress is indolepyruvate decarboxylase that is involved in the production of a plant auxin that mediates bacteria-diatom symbiotic interactions. Large differences in levels of heterozygosity were found in diploid haplotypes among Picochlorum isolates. Biallelic divergence was pronounced in P. oklahomensis (salt plains environment) when compared with its closely related sister taxon Picochlorum SENEW3 (brackish water environment), suggesting a role of diverged alleles in response to environmental stress. Our results elucidate how microbial eukaryotes with limited gene inventories expand habitat range from mesophilic to halophilic through allelic diversity, and with minor but important contributions made by HGT. We also explore how the nature and quality of genome data may impact inference of nuclear ploidy.

The Development of Plant Conservation in Botanic Gardens and the Current and Future Role of Conservation Genetics for Enhancing Those Conservation Efforts

Botanic gardens play major roles in plant conservation globally. Since the 1980s, the number of botanic gardens worldwide and their involvement in integrating ex situ and in situ plant conservation has increased significantly, with a growing focus on understanding, documenting, and capturing genetic diversity in their living collections. This article outlines why genetic diversity is important for conservation, and explores how botanic gardens can establish and expand the use of molecular techniques to support their plant conservation efforts.

Does intraspecific variability matter in ecological risk assessment? Investigation of genotypic variations in three macrophyte species exposed to copper

To limit anthropogenic impact on ecosystems, regulations have been implemented along with global awareness that human activities are harmful to the environment. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the main procedure which allows to assess potential impacts of stressors on the environment as a result of human activities. ERA is typically implemented through different steps of laboratory testing. The approaches taken for ERA evolve along with scientific knowledge, to improve predictions on ecological risks for ecosystems. We here address the importance of intraspecific variability as a potential source of error in the laboratory evaluation of pollutants. To answer this question, three aquatic macrophyte species with different life-history traits but with their leaves directly in contact with the water were chosen; Lemna minor and Myriophyllum spicatum, two OECD model species, and Ceratophyllum demersum. For each species, three or four genotypes were exposed to 7-8 copper concentrations (up to 1.9 mg/L, 2 mg/L or 36 mg/L for C. demersum, L. minor and M. spicatum, respectively). To assess species sensitivity, growth-related endpoints such as Relative Growth Rate (RGR), based either on biomass production or on length/frond production, and chlorophyll fluorescence F_v/F_m, were measured. For each endpoint, the effective concentration 50% (EC₅₀) was calculated. Almost all endpoints were affected by Cu exposure, except F_v/F_m of M. spicatum, and resulted in significant differences among genotypes for Cu sensitivity. Genotypes of L. minor exhibited up to 35% of variation in EC50 values based on F_v/F_m, showing differential sensivity among genotypes. Significant differences in EC₅₀ values were found for RGR based on length for M. spicatum, with up to 72% of variation. Finally, C. demersum demonstrated significant sensitivity differences among genotypes with up to 78% variation for EC₅₀ based on length. Overall, interspecific variation was higher than intraspecific variation, and explained 77% of the variation found among genotypes for RGR based on biomass, and 99% of the variation found for F_v/F_m. Our results highlight that depending on the endpoint, sensitivity can vary greatly within a species, and that pollutant- and species-specific endpoints should be considered in ERA.

Landscape genomics to the rescue of a tropical bee threatened by habitat loss and climate change

Habitat degradation and climate change are currently threatening wild pollinators, compromising their ability to provide pollination services to wild and cultivated plants. Landscape genomics offers powerful tools to assess the influence of landscape modifications on genetic diversity and functional connectivity, and to identify adaptations to local environmental conditions that could facilitate future bee survival. Here, we assessed range-wide patterns of genetic structure, genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in the stingless bee Melipona subnitida, a tropical pollinator of key biological and economic importance inhabiting one of the driest and hottest regions of South America. Our results reveal four genetic clusters across the species' full distribution range. All populations were found to be under a mutation-drift equilibrium, and genetic diversity was not influenced by the amount of reminiscent natural habitats. However, genetic relatedness was spatially autocorrelated and isolation by landscape resistance explained range-wide relatedness patterns better than isolation by geographic distance, contradicting earlier findings for stingless bees. Specifically, gene flow was enhanced by increased thermal stability, higher forest cover, lower elevations, and less corrugated terrains. Finally, we detected genomic signatures of adaptation to temperature, precipitation, and forest cover, spatially distributed in latitudinal and altitudinal patterns. Taken together, our findings shed important light on the life history of M. subnitida and highlight the role of regions with large thermal fluctuations, deforested areas, and mountain ranges as dispersal barriers. Conservation actions such as restricting long-distance colony transportation, preserving local adaptations, and improving the connectivity between highlands and lowlands are likely to assure future pollination services.

The Conservation of Native Honey Bees Is Crucial

Recent studies have emphasized the role of the western honey bee, Apis mellifera, as a managed agricultural species worldwide, but also as a potential threat to endangered wild pollinators. This has resulted in the suggestion that honey bees should be regulated in natural areas to conserve wild pollinators. We argue that this perspective fails to appreciate the multifaceted nature of honey bees as native or introduced species with either managed or wild colonies. Wild populations of A. mellifera are currently imperiled, and natural areas are critical for the conservation of local subspecies and genotypes. We propose that a differentiation between managed and wild populations is required and encourage integrated conservation planning for all endangered wild bees, including A. mellifera.

Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants

Background

Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet’s last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.

Methods

Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.

Results

The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve.

Conclusion

Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.

Distinguishing the victim from the threat: SNP-based methods reveal the extent of introgressive hybridization between wildcats and domestic cats in Scotland and inform future in situ and ex situ management options for species restoration

The degree of introgressive hybridization between the Scottish wildcat and domestic cat has long been suspected to be advanced. Here, we use a 35-SNP-marker test, designed to assess hybridization between wildcat and domestic cat populations in Scotland, to assess a database of 295 wild-living and captive cat samples, and test the assumptions of the test using 3,097 SNP markers generated independently in a subset of the data using ddRAD. We discovered that despite increased genetic resolution provided by these methods, wild-living cats in Scotland show a complete genetic continuum or hybrid swarm structure when judged against reference data. The historical population of wildcats, although hybridized, clearly groups at one end of this continuum, as does the captive population of wildcats. The interpretation of pelage scores against nuclear genetic data continues to be problematic. This is probably because of a breakdown in linkage equilibrium between wildcat pelage genes as the two populations have become increasingly mixed, meaning that pelage score or SNP score alone is poor diagnostic predictors of hybrid status. Until better tools become available, both should be used jointly, where possible, when making management decisions about individual cats. We recommend that the conservation community in Scotland must now define clearly what measures are to be used to diagnose a wildcat in the wild in Scotland, if future conservation action is to be effective.

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

Cryptic lineages in the Wolf Cardinalfish living in sympatry on remote coral atolls

Coral reef health and biodiversity is under threat worldwide due to rapid climate change. However, much of the inter- and intra-specific diversity of coral reefs are undescribed even in well studied taxa such as fish. Delimiting previously unrecognised diversity is important for understanding the processes that generate and sustain biodiversity in coral reef ecosystems and informing strategies for their conservation and management. Many taxa that inhabit geographically isolated coral reefs rely on self-recruitment for population persistence, providing the opportunity for the evolution of unique genetic lineages through divergent selection and reproductive isolation. Many such lineages in corals and fish are morphologically similar or indistinguishable. Here, we report the discovery and characterisation of cryptic lineages of the Wolf Cardinalfish, Cheilodipterus artus, from the coral atolls of northwest Australia using multiple molecular markers from mitochondrial (CO1 and D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellites) DNA. Concordant results from all markers identified two highly divergent lineages that are morphologically cryptic and reproductively isolated. These lineages co-occurred at daytime resting sites, but the relative abundance of each lineage was strongly correlated with wave exposure. It appears, therefore, that fish from each lineage are better adapted to different microhabitats. Such cryptic and ecologically based diversity appears to be common in these atolls and may well aid resilience of these systems. Our results also highlight that underwater surveys based on visual identification clearly underestimate biodiversity, and that a taxonomic revision of the Cheilodipterus genus is necessary.

Global warming-induced temperature effects to intertidal tropical and temperate meiobenthic communities

Global climate change and the related temperature rise strongly impact marine life and have long been in the center of scientific attention. This experimental work investigates thermal-stress effects on intertidal meiofauna from tropical and temperate coasts, focusing on community responses. Natural communities were exposed for a month to ambient, elevated constant temperatures and diurnal fluctuating temperature regimes with elevated peak maxima, to mimic realistic future climate conditions. Abundance, biodiversity, community composition and functional diversity were assessed. Differential responses between a tropical and a temperate community were revealed. The tropical nematode assemblage was more tolerant to the elevated constant than to the fluctuating temperature regime, whereas the temperate assemblage was equally affected by both. Shifts in dominance of temperature-tolerant species in elevated constant and fluctuating temperature treatments (due to temperature variations) were observed and explained by a combination of differential tolerances and shifts in species interactions. Overall, global warming-induced temperature was found to alter species dynamics within meiobenthic communities, which may have further implications for the ecosystem.

Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.

Use of seasonal forecasting to manage weather risk in ecological restoration

Ecological restoration has widely variable outcomes from successes to partial or complete failures, and there are diverse perspectives on the factors that influence the likelihood of success. However, not much is known about how these factors are perceived, and whether people's perceptions match realities. We surveyed 307 people involved in the restoration of native vegetation across Australia to identify their perceptions on the factors influencing the success of restoration projects. We found that weather (particularly drought and flooding) has realized impacts on the success of restoration projects, but is not perceived to be an important risk when planning new projects. This highlights the need for better recognition and management of weather risk in restoration and a potential role of seasonal forecasting. We used restoration case studies across Australia to assess the ability of seasonal forecasts provided by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, version M24 (POAMA-2) to detect unfavorable weather with sufficient skill and lead time to be useful for restoration projects. We found that rainfall and temperature variables in POAMA-2 predicted 88% of the weather issues encountered in restoration case studies apart from strong winds and cyclones. Of those restoration case studies with predictable weather issues, POAMA-2 had the forecast skill to predict the dominant or first-encountered issue in 67% of cases. We explored the challenges associated with uptake of forecast products through consultation with restoration practitioners and developed a prototype forecast product using a local case study. Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision making through (1) identifying risk management strategies during restoration planning, (2) accessing the forecast a month prior to revegetation activities, and (3) adapting decisions if extreme weather is forecasted, is expected to improve the establishment success of restoration.

Neutral variation does not predict immunogenetic variation in the European grayling (Thymallus thymallus)-implications for management

Preservation of genetic diversity is critical to successful conservation, and there is increasing demand for the inclusion of ecologically meaningful genetic information in management decisions. Supportive breeding programmes are increasingly implemented to combat declines in many species, yet their effect on adaptive genetic variation is understudied. This is despite the fact that supportive breeding may interfere with natural evolutionary processes. Here, we assessed the performance of neutral and adaptive markers (major histocompatibility complex; MHC) to inform management of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), which routinely involves supplementation of natural populations with hatchery-reared fish (stocking). This study is the first to characterize MH II DAA and DAB loci in grayling and to investigate immune genetic variation in relation to management practice in this species. High-throughput Illumina sequencing of "introduced," "stocked native" and "non-stocked native" populations revealed significantly higher levels of allelic richness and heterozygosity for MH markers than microsatellites exclusively in non-stocked native populations. Likewise, significantly lower differentiation at the MH II than for microsatellites was apparent when considering non-stocked native populations, but not stocked populations. We developed a simulation model to test the effects of relaxation of selection during the early life stage within captivity. Dependent on the census population size and stocking intensity, there may be long-term effects of stocking on MH II, but not neutral genetic diversity. This is consistent with our empirical results. This study highlights the necessity for considering adaptive genetic variation in conservation decisions and raises concerns about the efficiency of stocking as a management practice.

Understanding managers' and scientists' perspectives on opportunities to achieve more evolutionarily enlightened management in conservation

Despite wide acceptance that conservation could benefit from greater attention to principles and processes from evolutionary biology, little attention has been given to quantifying the degree to which relevant evolutionary concepts are being integrated into management practices. There has also been increasing discussion of the potential reasons for a lack of evolutionarily enlightened management, but no attempts to understand the challenges from the perspective of those making management decisions. In this study, we asked conservation managers and scientists for their views on the importance of a range of key evolutionary concepts, the degree to which these concepts are being integrated into management, and what would need to change to support better integration into management practices. We found that while managers recognize the importance of a wide range of evolutionary concepts for conservation outcomes, they acknowledge these concepts are rarely incorporated into management. Managers and scientists were in strong agreement about the range of barriers that need to be overcome, with a lack of knowledge reported as the most important barrier to better integration of evolutionary biology into conservation decision-making. Although managers tended to be more focused on the need for more training in evolutionary biology, scientists reported greater engagement between managers and evolutionary biologists as most important to achieve the necessary change. Nevertheless, the challenges appear to be multifaceted, and several are outside the control of managers, suggesting solutions will need to be multidimensional.