Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China)

Cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality associated with individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have investigated the association between cardiometabolic risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but evidence of the attributable burden of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors for CVD and mortality is limited. We aimed to investigate and quantify the associations and population attributable fraction (PAF) of cardiometabolic risk factors on CVD and all-cause mortality, and calculate the loss of CVD-free years and years of life lost in relation to the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.

METHODS

Twenty-two thousand five hundred ninety-six participants aged ≥ 35 without CVD at baseline were included between October 2012 and December 2015. The outcomes were the composite of fatal and nonfatal CVD events and all-cause mortality, which were followed up in 2018 and 2019 and ascertained by hospital records and death certificates. Cox regression was applied to evaluate the association of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors (including hypertension, diabetes and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)) with CVD risk and all-cause mortality. We also described the PAF for CVD and reductions in CVD-free years and life expectancy associated with different combination of cardiometabolic conditions.

RESULTS

During the 4.92 years of follow-up, we detected 991 CVD events and 1126 deaths. Hazard ratio were 1.59 (95% confidential interval (CI) 1.37-1.85), 1.82 (95%CI 1.49-2.24) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.85-4.75) for CVD and 1.38 (95%CI 1.20-1.58), 1.66 (95%CI 1.37-2.02) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.88-4.69) for all-cause mortality, respectively, in participants with one, two or three cardiometabolic risk factors compared with participants without diabetes, hypertension, and high LDL-C. 21.48% of CVD and 15.38% of all-cause mortality were attributable to the combined effect of diabetes and hypertension. Participants aged between 40 and 60 years old, with three cardiometabolic disorders, had approximately 4.3-year reductions life expectancy compared with participants without any abnormalities of cardiometabolic disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiometabolic risk factors were associated with a multiplicative risk of CVD incidence and all-cause mortality, highlighting the importance of comprehensive management for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia in the prevention of CVD.

Emotional distress and cardiovascular disease risk among participants enrolled in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness (GRADE) study

AIMS

People with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined depressive symptoms (DS) and diabetes distress (DD) in relation to the estimated 10-year risk of CVD in adults with T2DM enrolled in the GRADE Emotional Distress Substudy.

METHODS

Linear regression models examined the associations of baseline DS and DD with estimated 10-year risk of CVD using the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, diabetes duration, diabetes-related complications, and HbA1c.

RESULTS

A total of 1,605 GRADE participants were included: 54% Non-Latino (NL) White, 18% Latino, 19% NL-Black, 66% male, mean age 57.5 (SD = 10.25) years, diabetes duration 4.2 (SD = 2.8) years, and HbA1c 7.5% (SD = 0.5%). After incorporating covariates, only DS, especially cognitive-affective symptoms, were associated with ASCVD risk (estimate = 0.15 [95% CI: 0.04, 0.025], p = 0.006). Higher DS remained significantly associated with higher ASCVD risk when adding DD to covariates (estimate = 0.19 [95% CI: 0.07, 0.30], p = 0.002). DD was not associated with ASCVD risk when accounting for covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive symptoms, particularly cognitive-affective symptoms, are associated with increased 10-year predicted ASCVD risk among adults with early T2DM. Diabetes distress is not significantly associated with the predicted ASCVD risk when accounting for covariates.

2023 Chinese guideline for lipid management

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of death among urban and rural residents in China, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a risk factor for ASCVD. Considering the increasing burden of ASCVD, lipid management is of the utmost importance. In recent years, research on blood lipids has made breakthroughs around the world, hence a revision of Chinese guideline for lipid management is imperative, especially since the target lipid levels in the general population vary in respect to the risk of ASCVD. The level of LDL-C, which can be regarded as appropriate in a population without frisk factors, can be considered abnormal in people at high risk of developing ASCVD. As a result, the "Guidelines for the prevention and treatment of dyslipidemia" were adapted into the "Chinese guideline for Lipid Management" (henceforth referred to as the new guidelines) by an Experts' committee after careful deliberation. The new guidelines still recommend LDL-C as the primary target for lipid control, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification to determine its target value. These guidelines recommend that moderate intensity statin therapy in adjunct with a heart-healthy lifestyle, be used as an initial line of treatment, followed by cholesterol absorption inhibitors or/and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors, as necessary. The new guidelines provide guidance for lipid management across various age groups, from children to the elderly. The aim of these guidelines is to comprehensively improve the management of lipids and promote the prevention and treatment of ASCVD by guiding clinical practice.

Evidence supporting the choice of a new cardiovascular risk equation for Australia

This article reviews the risk equations recommended for use in international cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines and assesses their suitability for use in Australia against a set of a priori defined selection criteria. The review and assessment were commissioned by the National Heart Foundation of Australia on behalf of the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance to inform recommendations on CVD risk estimation as part of the 2023 update of the Australian CVD risk assessment and management guidelines. Selected international risk equations were assessed against eight selection criteria: development using contemporary data; inclusion of established cardiovascular risk factors; inclusion of ethnicity and deprivation measures; prediction of a broad selection of fatal and non-fatal CVD outcomes; population representativeness; model performance; external validation in an Australian dataset; and the ability to be recalibrated or modified. Of the ten risk prediction equations reviewed, the New Zealand PREDICT equation met seven of the eight selection criteria, and met additional usability criteria aimed at assessing the ability to apply the risk equation in practice in Australia.

An innovative model for predicting coronary heart disease using triglyceride-glucose index: a machine learning-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Various predictive models have been developed for predicting the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), but none of them has had optimal predictive value. Although these models consider diabetes as an important CHD risk factor, they do not consider insulin resistance or triglyceride (TG). The unsatisfactory performance of these prediction models may be attributed to the ignoring of these factors despite their proven effects on CHD. We decided to modify standard CHD predictive models through machine learning to determine whether the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG-index, a logarithmized combination of fasting blood sugar (FBS) and TG that demonstrates insulin resistance) functions better than diabetes as a CHD predictor.

METHODS

Two-thousand participants of a community-based Iranian population, aged 20-74 years, were investigated with a mean follow-up of 9.9 years (range: 7.6-12.2). The association between the TyG-index and CHD was investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. By selecting common components of previously validated CHD risk scores, we developed machine learning models for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was substituted for diabetes in CHD prediction models. All components of machine learning models were explained in terms of how they affect CHD prediction. CHD-predicting TyG-index cut-off points were calculated.

RESULTS

The incidence of CHD was 14.5%. Compared to the lowest quartile of the TyG-index, the fourth quartile had a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 2.32 (confidence interval [CI] 1.16-4.68, p-trend 0.04). A TyG-index > 8.42 had the highest negative predictive value for CHD. The TyG-index-based support vector machine (SVM) performed significantly better than diabetes-based SVM for predicting CHD. The TyG-index was not only more important than diabetes in predicting CHD; it was the most important factor after age in machine learning models.

CONCLUSION

We recommend using the TyG-index in clinical practice and predictive models to identify individuals at risk of developing CHD and to aid in its prevention.

Contribution of low skeletal muscle mass in predicting cardiovascular events: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the association between skeletal muscle mass and cardiovascular events, and its additional value on the assessment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) over traditional risk scores.

METHODS

The study included 1365 community-based participants aged over 50 years and free of CVDs at baseline. Participants completed detailed assessments at baseline and received a follow-up assessment in 2021-2022 via phone calls or electronic medical records. Skeletal muscle mass was measured using an automatic bioelectric analyzer. Predicted probabilities of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk were estimated individually with the China-PAR equation.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, 144 cardiovascular events were identified. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of cardiovascular events were 0.93 (0.88-0.98) and 1.08 (1.04-1.12) for skeletal muscle mass and predicted 10-year risk, respectively. Among participants over 60 years and with two or more risk factors, cardiovascular events risk increased progressively with each decreasing skeletal muscle tertile. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the C-statistic of predicting cardiovascular events for a 10-year risk assessment was slightly increased after adding skeletal muscle mass. The categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed a 56.7% increase in the reclassification. The continuous NRI and integrated discrimination improvement increased as well.

CONCLUSION

Participants with low skeletal muscle mass were more likely to have cardiovascular events. Low muscle mass improved the predictive power of CVD incidence over the original risk score, indicating that muscle mass could be a valuable parameter and a declining value needed early detection in the population.

Rate of Change in 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Its Implications for Primary Prevention

BACKGROUND

Contemporary cardiovascular primary prevention is based on the assessment of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, the clinical implications of temporal change in the 10-year ASCVD risk estimate (∆10-year ASCVD risk/year) are unknown.

METHODS

A total of 211 077 participants without established ASCVD and with repetitive 10-year ASCVD risk assessment at an interval of 4 to 5 years were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service data. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause death.

RESULTS

ASCVD event rates were proportional to the ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year regardless of the baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. Adjusted hazard ratio for ASCVD events per 1% increase in ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year was 1.53 (95% CI, 1.44-1.63), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.15-1.32), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.23), and 1.05 (95% CI, 1.00-1.10) in those with a baseline 10-year ASCVD risk of <5%, 5% to 7.5%, 7.5% to 20%, and ≥20%, respectively. Appropriate control of risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, exercise habits, and smoking status, was associated with lower ASCVD event rates, whereas failure to control these risk factors resulted in higher ASCVD event rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The temporal change in 10-year ASCVD risk over a period of 4 to 5 years reflects success or failure in controlling major cardiovascular risk factors and indicates the risk of future ASCVD events. The ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year can be used as an indicator of primary prevention and guide the application of preventive measures.

Senescent endothelial cells' response to the degradation of bioresorbable scaffold induces intimal dysfunction accelerating in-stent restenosis

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a typical age-related disease accompanied by stiffening arteries. We aimed to elucidate the influence of aged arteries on in-stent restenosis (ISR) after the implantation of bioresorbable scaffolds (BRS). Histology and optical coherence tomography showed increased lumen loss and ISR in the aged abdominal aorta of Sprague-Dawley rats, with apparent scaffold degradation and deformation, which induce lower wall shear stress (WSS). This was also the case at the distal end of BRS, where the scaffolds degraded faster, and significant lumen loss was followed by a lower WSS. In addition, early thrombosis, inflammation, and delayed re-endothelialization were presented in the aged arteries. Degradation of BRS causes more senescent cells in the aged vasculature, increasing endothelial cell dysfunction and the risk of ISR. Thus, profoundly understanding the mechanism between BRS and senescent cells may give a meaningful guide for the age-related scaffold design. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: The degradation of bioresorbable scaffolds aggravates senescent endothelial cells and a much lower wall shear stress areas in the aged vasculature, lead to intimal dysfunction and increasing in-stent restenosis risk. Early thrombosis and inflammation, as well as delayed re-endothelialization, are presented in the aged vasculature after bioresorbable scaffolds implantation. Age stratification during the clinical evaluation and senolytics in the design of new bioresorbable scaffolds should be considered, especially for old patients.

Comparing the performance of machine learning and conventional models for predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a general Chinese population

BACKGROUND

Accurately predicting the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is crucial for implementing individualized prevention strategies and improving patient outcomes. Our objective is to develop machine learning (ML)-based models for predicting ASCVD risk in a prospective Chinese population and compare their performance with conventional regression models.

METHODS

A hybrid dataset consisting of 551 features was used, including 98 demographic, behavioral, and psychological features, 444 Electrocardiograph (ECG) features, and 9 Echocardiography (Echo) features. Seven machine learning (ML)-based models were trained, validated, and tested after selecting the 30 most informative features. We compared the discrimination, calibration, net benefit, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) of the ML models with those of conventional ASCVD risk calculators, such as the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR).

RESULTS

The study included 9,609 participants (mean age 53.4 ± 10.4 years, 53.7% female), and during a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 431 (4.5%) participants developed ASCVD. In the testing set, the final ML-based ANN model outperformed PCE, China-PAR, recalibrated PCE, and recalibrated China-PAR in predicting ASCVD. This was demonstrated by the model's higher area under the curve (AUC) of 0.800, compared to 0.777, 0.780, 0.779, and 0.779 for the other models, respectively. Additionally, the model had a lower Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 of 9.1, compared to 37.3, 67.6, 126.6, and 18.6 for the other models. The net benefit at a threshold of 5% was also higher for the ML-based ANN model at 0.017, compared to 0.016, 0.013, 0.017, and 0.016 for the other models, respectively. Furthermore, the NRI was 0.089 for the ML-based ANN model, while it was 0.355, 0.098, and 0.088 for PCE, China-PAR, and recalibrated PCE, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to conventional regression ASCVD risk calculators, such as PCE and China-PAR, the ANN prediction model may help optimize identification of individuals at heightened cardiovascular risk by flexibly incorporating a wider range of potential predictors. The findings may help guide clinical decision-making and ultimately contribute to ASCVD prevention and management.

Fatty Liver Index and Its Association with 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Insights from a Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in China

This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), a global public health concern. A total of 9044 out of 10,104 adults from Guangzhou, China, were included in the analysis. We utilized the fatty liver index (FLI), a noninvasive indicator of NAFLD, and the pooled cohort equations (PCE) based on the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline, the China-PAR model, and the Framingham Risk Score to assess the 10-year ASCVD risk. The results demonstrated a significant association between FLI and 10-year ASCVD risk (p < 0.001). Adjusted for age, individuals with high FLI (≥60) had an odds ratio of 3.91 (95% CI 2.52-6.08) compared to those with low FLI (<30). These findings persisted after adjusting for metabolic indicators. Notably, this association was consistently observed across all three risk prediction models: the PCE model, the China-PAR model, and the Framingham Risk Score. In conclusion, our study provides evidence supporting FLI as a reliable indicator of increased 10-year ASCVD risk in Chinese NAFLD patients. FLI serves as a valuable marker for early detection of ASCVD, highlighting its potential in clinical practice for risk assessment and prevention strategies.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Guangzhou, China

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and implementing targeted prevention strategies might be the key to reducing the heavy disease burden in China. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control among individuals with high 10-year ASCVD risk in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

This study included 15,165 adults (aged 18 years and older) from 138 urban and rural communities in the 2018 survey of China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance in Guangzhou. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated using the risk assessment models recommended in the Chinese Guideline for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease 2017. The prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high ASCVD risk (defined as 10-year risk ≥10%) were examined.

Results

Among the study population, the weighted proportion of men was 51.9%, and the mean age was 41.27 ± 0.52 years. The overall standardized prevalence of high 10-year ASCVD risk was 13.8% (95% CI, 12.4%-15.3%). The awareness rates for hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia were 48.0% (95% CI, 42.8%-53.4%), 48.3% (95% CI, 43.0%-53.7%), and 17.9% (95% CI, 14.4%-22.1%) among those with corresponding risk factors. The proportions of drug use in prevention were relatively low in primary prevention, with the rates of using BP-lowering, glucose-lowering, lipid-lowering, and aspirin being 37.7% (95% CI, 32.8%-42.8%), 41.4% (95% CI, 35.8%-47.3%), 6.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-10.0%), and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.8%), respectively. As for risk factor control, only 29.3% (95% CI, 25.7%-33.2%), 16.8% (95% CI, 15.0%-18.6%), and 36.0% (95% CI, 31.1%-41.2%) of individuals with high ASCVD risk had ideal levels of blood pressure, LDL-C, and body weight.

Conclusion

The estimated prevalence of 10-year high ASCVD risk was high in Guangzhou, while the rates of treatment and risk factor control in primary prevention were still far from optimal, especially for lipid management. These findings suggested that substantial improvement in ASCVD prevention is needed in this population.

Inflammation biomarkers are associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis

Background

Inflammation is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and particular inflammatory parameters can be used to predict the incidence of CVD. The aim of this study was to assess the association between fibrinogen (FIB), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP) and galectin-3 (Gal-3) and the risk of cardiovascular disease using meta-analysis.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched with the appropriate strategies to identify observational studies relevant to this meta-analysis. A random-effects model was used to combine inflammation factor-associated outcomes and cardiovascular disease outcomes, except in the case of galectin-3, where a fixed-effects model was used because of less heterogeneity. Location, age, type of cardiovascular disease, and sample size factors were used to explore heterogeneity in stratification and metaregression for subgroup analysis. A case-by-case literature exclusion approach was used for sensitivity analysis. The funnel plot and Begg's test were combined to assess publication bias.

Results

Thirty-three papers out of 11,456 were screened for inclusion in the analysis. Four inflammation biomarkers were significantly associated with the development of CVD: FIB (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.15-1.27, P < 0.001; HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07, P < 0.05), IL-6 (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22, P < 0.001), CRP (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15-1.35, P < 0.001; HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14-1.25, P < 0.001) and Gal-3 (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05-1.14, P < 0.001). Location factors help explain the source of heterogeneity, and there is publication bias in the Gal-3 related literature.

Conclusion

Taken together, the current research evidence suggests that high levels of fibrinogen, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein and galectin-3 are risk factors for cardiovascular disease and can be used as biomarkers to predict the development of cardiovascular disease to some extent.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42023391844.

Association of Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter with Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Incidence Varies across Populations with Different Predicted Risks: The China-PAR Project

Previous studies have established a significant link between ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) incidence, but whether this association varies across populations with different predicted ASCVD risks was uncertain previously. We included 109,374 Chinese adults without ASCVD at baseline from the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) project. We obtained PM_2.5 data of participants' residential address from 2000 to 2015 using a satellite-based spatiotemporal model. Participants were classified into low-to-medium and high-risk groups according to the ASCVD 10-year and lifetime risk prediction scores. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PM_2.5 exposure-related incident ASCVD, as well as the multiplication and additive interaction, were calculated using stratified Cox proportional hazard models. The additive interaction between risk stratification and PM_2.5 exposure was estimated by the synergy index (SI), the attributable proportion due to the interaction (API), and the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Over the follow-up of 833,067 person-years, a total of 4230 incident ASCVD cases were identified. Each 10 μg/m³ increment of PM_2.5 concentration was associated with 18% (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.14-1.23) increased risk of ASCVD in the total population, and the association was more pronounced among individuals having a high predicted ASCVD risk than those having a low-to-medium risk, with the HR (95% CI) of 1.24 (1.19-1.30) and 1.11 (1.02-1.20) per 10 μg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 concentration, respectively. The RERI, API, and SI were 1.22 (95% CI: 0.62-1.81), 0.22 (95% CI: 0.12-0.32), and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.16-1.63), respectively. Our findings demonstrate a significant synergistic effect on ASCVD between ASCVD risk stratification and PM_2.5 exposure and highlight the potential health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 exposure in Chinese, especially among those with high ASCVD risk.

Associations of non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors and body mass index with metabolic syndrome in the Chinese elderly population

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a clustering of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF), is currently one of the major global public health burdens. However, associations between MetS and non-traditional CVRF represented by uric acid (UA), homocysteine (HCY) and hypersensitive C-reactive protein (HsCRP) have not been well explored in the elderly population, especially when considering body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

Participants from the Shanghai Elderly Cardiovascular Health (SHECH) study cohort in 2017 were analyzed. MetS was defined using the modified American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Scientific Statement. Logistic regression models were used to assess associations of non-traditional CVRF, BMI with MetS.

RESULTS

Of the 4360 participants analyzed, 2378 (54.5%) had MetS, the mean (SD) UA was 331 (86) µmol/L, and the median (IQR) HCY and HsCRP were 15 (13-18) µmol/L and 1.0 (0.5-2.1) mg/L, respectively. Participants with higher non-traditional CVRF tended to have a higher significant risk of MetS (P < 0.001), which did not changed substantially in most population subgroups (P-interaction > 0.05). BMI mediated 43.89% (95%CI: 30.38-57.40%), 37.34% (95% CI: 13.86-60.83%) and 30.99% (95%CI: 13.16-48.83%) of associations of hyperuricemia (HUA), hyperhomocysteinemia (HHCY) and high HsCRP (HHsCRP) with MetS, respectively. Abnormal non-traditional CVRF combined with overweight/obesity greatly increased MetS risk (adjusted OR(95%CI): HUA + Overweight: 5.860(4.059-8.461); 6.148(3.707-10.194); HHCY + Overweight: 3.989(3.107-5.121); HHCY + Obese: 5.746(4.064-8.123); HHsCRP + Overweight: 4.026(2.906-5.580); HHsCRP + Obese: 7.717(4.508-13.210)).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Chinese elderly population, HUA, HHCY, and HHsCRP were all significantly and independently associated with MetS, supporting the potential of focusing on non-traditional CVRF interventions for preventing and controlling MetS. BMI played moderate mediating roles in associations between non-traditional CVRF and MetS, and abnormal non-traditional CVRF combined with overweight/obesity had significant synergistic effects on MetS risk, highlighting the importance of better weight management in the elderly population.

Relative contributions of arterial stiffness to cardiovascular disease risk score in Chinese women in framingham and China-PAR model

Background

Arterial stiffness played an important role in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The aim of this study was to verify the relative importance of arterial stiffness for different CVD risk scores in a large sample of Chinese women.

Methods

We measured arterial velocity pulse index (AVI) and CVD risk scores in 2220 female participants (mean age 57 years). Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and the prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) were used to estimate CVD risk, respectively. The relationships between AVI and risk scores were investigated by linear regressions and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis. To determine the relative importance of AVI in predicting CVD risk scores, random forest analysis was used.

Results

There was a significant positive correlation between AVI and FRS, China-PAR in all subgroup groups stratified by age, blood pressure and BMI. AVI showed higher importance in predicting CVD risk scores in FRS model, compared with these traditional risk factors. In China-PAR model, although AVI was not as predictive as SBP, it had better predictive power than many known risk factors such as lipids. Furthermore, AVI had significant J-shaped associations both with FRS and China-PAR scores.

Conclusions

AVI was significantly associated with CVD risk score. In FRS and China-PAR model, AVI showed relatively high importance in predicting CVD risk scores. These findings may support the use of arterial stiffness measurements in CVD risk assessment.

Effectiveness of China-PAR and Framingham risk score in assessment of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese hypertensive patients

OBJECTIVES

Estimating the total risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using risk prediction models represents a huge improvement in identifying and treating each of the risk factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the China-PAR (Prediction of atherosclerotic CVD risk in China) and Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Chinese hypertensive patients. The results of the study can be used to design health promotion strategies.

STUDY DESIGN

A large cohort study was used to assess the validity of models by comparing model predictions with actual incidence rates.

METHODS

In total, 10,498 hypertensive patients aged 30-70 years in Jiangsu Province, China, participated in the baseline survey that took place between January and December 2010 and were followed up to May 2020. China-PAR and FRS were used to calculate the predicted 10-year risk of CVD. The 10-year observed incidence of new cardiovascular events was adjusted by the Kaplan-Meier method. The ratio of the predicted risk to the actual incidence was calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. The discrimination Harrell's C statistics and calibration Chi-square value were used to evaluate the predictive reliability of the models.

RESULTS

Of the 10,498 participants, 4411 (42.02%) were male. During the mean follow-up of 8.30 ± 1.45 years, a total of 693 new cardiovascular events occurred. Both models overestimated the risk of morbidity to varying degrees, and the FRS overestimated to a greater extent. After adjustment for covariates, the results of Cox proportional hazards regression showed that the risk of CVD in the high-risk group was higher than in low-risk group. The degree of discrimination in both models was approximately 0.6, which showed that discrimination was not ideal in the models. In addition, Chi-square calibrations of the two models were <20 in males, which showed that calibration of the models was better for men than women.

CONCLUSIONS

The China-PAR and FRS models overestimated the risk of CVD for participants in this study. In addition, the degree of discrimination was not ideal, and both models performed better in males than in females in terms of calibration. The results of this study suggest that a more suitable risk prediction model should be established according to the characteristics of the hypertensive population in Jiangsu Province.

Prevalence of familial hypercholesterolemia and its association with coronary artery disease: A Chinese cohort study

Background

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is underrecognized, and its association with coronary artery disease (CAD) remains limited, especially in China. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of FH and its relationship with CAD in a large Chinese cohort.

Methods

FH was defined using the Make Early Diagnosis to Prevent Early Death (MEDPED) criteria. The crude and age-sex standardized prevalence of FH were calculated based on surveys of the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) project during 2007-2008. The associations of FH with incident CAD and its major subtypes were estimated with the cohort-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazard models based on the data from the baseline to the last follow-up (2018-2020).

Results

Among 98,885 included participants, 190 participants were defined as FH. Crude and age-sex standardized prevalence and 95% confidence interval (CI) of FH were 0.19% (0.17%-0.22%) and 0.13% (0.10%-0.16%), respectively. The prevalence varied across age groups and peaked in the group of 60-<70 years (0.28%), and the peak prevalence (0.18%) in males was earlier, yet lower than the peak crude prevalence in females (0.41%). During a mean follow-up of 10.7 years, 2493 cases of incident CAD were identified. After multivariate adjustment, FH patients had a 2.03-fold greater risk of developing CAD compared to non-FH participants.

Conclusions

The prevalence of FH was estimated to be 0.19% in the participants, and it was associated with an elevated risk of incident CAD. Our study suggests that early screening of FH has certain public health significance for the prevention of CAD.

Study on the prediction model of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the rural Xinjiang population based on survival analysis

PURPOSE

With the increase in aging and cardiovascular risk factors, the morbidity and mortality of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), represented by ischemic heart disease and stroke, continue to rise in China. For better prevention and intervention, relevant guidelines recommend using predictive models for early detection of ASCVD high-risk groups. Therefore, this study aims to establish a population ASCVD prediction model in rural areas of Xinjiang using survival analysis.

METHODS

Baseline cohort data were collected from September to December 2016 and followed up till June 2022. A total of 7975 residents (4054 males and 3920 females) aged 30-74 years were included in the analysis. The data set was divided according to different genders, and the training and test sets ratio was 7:3 for different genders. A Cox regression, Lasso-Cox regression, and random survival forest (RSF) model were established in the training set. The model parameters were determined by cross-validation and parameter tuning and then verified in the training set. Traditional ASCVD prediction models (Framingham and China-PAR models) were constructed in the test set. Different models' discrimination and calibration degrees were compared to find the optimal prediction model for this population according to different genders and further analyze the risk factors of ASCVD.

RESULTS

After 5.79 years of follow-up, 873 ASCVD events with a cumulative incidence of 10.19% were found (7.57% in men and 14.44% in women). By comparing the discrimination and calibration degrees of each model, the RSF showed the best prediction performance in males and females (male: Area Under Curve (AUC) 0.791 (95%CI 0.767,0.813), C statistic 0.780 (95%CI 0.730,0.829), Brier Score (BS):0.060, female: AUC 0.759 (95%CI 0.734,0.783) C statistic was 0.737 (95%CI 0.702,0.771), BS:0.110). Age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), apolipoprotein B (APOB), Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI), hip circumference (HC), and plasma arteriosclerosis index (AIP) are important predictors of ASCVD in the rural population of Xinjiang.

CONCLUSION

The performance of the ASCVD prediction model based on the RSF algorithm is better than that based on Cox regression, Lasso-Cox, and the traditional ASCVD prediction model in the rural population of Xinjiang.

Cardiovascular disease risk perception among community adults in South China: a latent profile analysis

Objective

Risk perception, a critical psychological construct, influences health behavior modification and maintenance of individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Little is known about CVD risk perception among Chinese adults. This research examined the profiles of CVD risk perception of community adults in South China, and explored the characteristics and factors that influence their perception of CVD risk.

Method

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, in South China from March to July 2022 and included 692 participants. Risk perception was assessed using the Chinese version of the Attitude and Beliefs about Cardiovascular Disease Risk Questionnaire. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was performed to extract latent classes of CVD risk perception. These classes of CVD risk perception were compared with 10-year CVD risk categories to define correctness of estimation. Chi-square tests and multinomial regression analyses were used to identify differences between these categories.

Results

Three CVD risk perception classes were identified by LPA: low risk perception (14.2% of participants), moderate risk perception (46.8%), high risk perception (39.0%). Individuals who were aged with 40-60 year (OR = 6.94, 95% CI = 1.86-25.84), diabetes (OR = 6.26, 95% CI = 1.34-29.17), married (OR = 4.52, 95% CI = 2.30-8.90), better subjective health status (OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 1.15-9.10) and perceived benefits and intention to change physical activity (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.05-1.27) were more likely to be in the high-risk perception class. Compared to absolute 10-year CVD risk based on China-PAR, a third of participants (30.1%) correctly estimated their CVD risk, 63.3% overestimated it and 6.6% underestimated it. CVD risk underestimation was associated with hypertension (OR = 3.91, 95% CI = 1.79-8.54), drinking (OR = 3.05, 95% CI = 1.22-7.64), better subjective health status (OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.18-6.03).

Conclusions

Most adults in South China possess a moderate level of CVD risk perception. Advanced age, higher monthly income, diabetes and better health status were significantly related to higher perceived CVD risk. Individuals with hypertension, drinking and better subjective health status were associated with CVD risk underestimation. Healthcare professionals should pay attention to the indicators for different classes and identify underestimation group as early as possible.

Age at diagnosis, diabetes duration and the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study

Background

The purpose of the study was to evaluate characteristics and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) according to age at diagnosis and disease duration among adults with diabetes mellitus (DM).

Methods

The association between age at diagnosis, diabetes duration and CVD were examined in 1,765 patients with DM. High risk of estimated ten-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) was performed by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) project. Data were compared with analysis of variance and χ2 test, respectively. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors of CVD.

Results

The mean age at diagnosis (± standard deviation) was 52.91 ± 10.25 years and diabetes duration was 8.06 ± 5.66 years. Subjects were divided into early-onset DM group (≤43 years), late-onset DM group (44 to 59 years), elderly-onset DM group (≥60 years) according to age at diagnosis. Diabetes duration was classified by 5 years. Both early-onset and longest diabetes duration (>15 years) had prominent hyperglycaemia. Diabetes duration was associated with the risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio (OR), 1.091) and coronary artery disease (OR, 1.080). Early-onset group (OR, 2.323), and late-onset group (OR, 5.199), and hypertension (OR, 2.729) were associated with the risk of ischemic stroke. Late-onset group (OR, 5.001), disease duration (OR, 1.080), and hypertension (OR, 2.015) and hyperlipidemia (OR, 1.527) might increase the risk of coronary artery disease. Aged over 65 (OR, 10.192), central obesity (OR, 1.992), hypertension (OR, 18.816), cardiovascular drugs (OR, 5.184), antihypertensive drugs (OR, 2.780), and participants with disease duration >15 years (OR, 1.976) were associated with the high risk of estimated ten-year ASCVD in participants with DM.

Conclusion

Age at diagnosis, diabetes duration, hypertension and hyperlipidemia were independent risks of CVD. Longest (>15 years) diabetes duration increased the high risk of ten-year ASCVD prediction among Chinese patients with DM. It's urgent to emphasize the importance of age at diagnosis and diabetes duration to improve primary complication of diabetes.

A nomogram based on endothelial function and conventional risk factors predicts coronary artery disease in hypertensives

BACKGROUND

There is currently a lack of a precise, concise, and practical clinical prediction model for predicting coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with essential hypertension (EH). This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict CAD in patients with EH based on flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of brachial artery and traditional risk factors.

METHODS

Clinical data of 1752 patients with EH were retrospectively collected. High-resolution vascular ultrasound was used to detect FMD in all patients at the Fujian Hypertension Research Institute, China. Patients were divided into two groups, i.e. training group (n = 1204, from August 2000 to December 2013) and validation group (n = 548, from January 2014 to May 2016) according to the time of enrollment. Independent predictors of CAD were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression in the training group, and a nomogram was constructed accordingly. Finally, we evaluated the discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability of the model using the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic analysis, calibration curve combined with Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve, respectively.

RESULTS

There were 263 (21.8%) cases of EH combined with CAD in the training group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that FMD, age, duration of EH, waist circumference, and diabetes mellitus were independent influencing factors for CAD in EH patients. Smoking which was close to statistical significance (P = 0.062) was also included in the regression model to increase the accuracy. Ultimately, the nomogram for predicting CAD in EH patients was constructed according to above predictors after proper transformation. The AUC values of the training group and the validation group were 0.799 (95%CI 0.770-0.829) and 0.836 (95%CI 0.787-0.886), respectively. Calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good calibration (training group: χ2 = 0.55, P = 0.759; validation group: χ2 = 1.62, P = 0.446). The decision curve also verified the clinical applicability of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on FMD and traditional risk factors (age, duration of EH disease, smoking, waist circumference and diabetes mellitus) can predict CAD high-risk group among patients with EH.

Associations between residential greenness and the predicted 10-year risk for atherosclerosis cardiovascular disease among Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Exposure to build environments, especially residential greenness, offers benefits to reduce the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD). The 10-year ASCVD risk is a useful indicator for long-term ASCVD risk, but the evidence on the association and potential pathway of residential greenness in mitigating its development remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the associations between residential greenness and the 10-year predicted ASCVD risks, and potentially mediation effect on this association by air pollution, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity (PA).

METHODS

The baseline of the China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC) study, enrolling 99,556 adults during 2018-2019, was used in this cross-sectional study. The participants' 10-year ASCVD risks were predicted as low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, based on the six risk factors: age, smoking, hypertension, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and high total cholesterol (TC). The 3-year mean value within the circular buffer of 500 m and 1000 m of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI_500m and EVI_1000m) were used to assess greenness exposure. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between residential greenness and the 10-year ASCVD risks. Stratified analyses by sex, age and smoking status were performed to identify susceptible populations. Causal mediation analysis was used to explore the mediation effects of air pollution, BMI and PA.

RESULTS

A total of 75,975 participants were included, of which 17.9 % (n = 13,614) and 5.6 % (n = 4253) had the moderate and high 10-year ASCVD risks, respectively. Compared to the low-risk group, each interquartile increase in EVI_500m and EVI_1000m reduced the ASCVD risk of the moderate-risk group by 4 % (OR = 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]) and 4 % (OR = 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]), respectively; and reduced the risk of the high-risk group by 8 % (OR = 0.92 [0.90, 0.96]) and 7 % (OR = 0.93 [0.90, 0.97]), respectively. However, the increased greenness did not affect the ASCVD risk of the high-risk group when compared to the moderate-risk group. Effects of residential greenness on the ASCVD risk were stronger in women than in men (p < 0.05), and were not observed in those aged ≥55. PA and BMI partially mediated the association between greenness and the 10-year ASCVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

ASCVD prevention strategies should be tailored to maximize the effectiveness within the groups with different ASCVD risks, better at early stages when the ASCVD risk is low.

Dietary Evodiamine Inhibits Atherosclerosis-Associated Changes in Vascular Smooth Muscle Cells

Evodia rutaecarpa (Juss.) Benth is a traditional Chinese medicine. The active ingredient, evodiamine, is a quinolone alkaloid and is found in Evodiae fructus. We investigated the effect of evodiamine on atherosclerosis using LDLR−/− mice fed on a high-fat diet and ox-LDL-induced MOVAS cell lines to construct mouse models and cell-line models. We report a significant reduction in atherosclerotic plaque formation in mice exposed to evodiamine. Our mechanistic studies have revealled that evodiamine can regulate the proliferation, migration, and inflammatory response of and oxidative stress in vascular smooth muscle cells by inhibiting the activation of the PI3K/Akt axis, thus inhibiting the occurrence and development of atherosclerosis. In conclusion, our findings reveal a role for evodiamine in the regulation of vascular smooth muscle cells in atherosclerosis, highlighting a potential future role for the compound as an anti-atherosclerotic agent.

Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study

Commonly used prediction models have been primarily constructed without taking physical activity into account. Using the Kailuan physical activity cohorts from Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities in Community (APAC) study, we developed a 9-year cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. Participants in this study were included from APAC cohort, which included 5440 participants from the Kailuan cohort in China. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to construct sex-specific risk prediction equations for the physical activity cohort (PA equation). Proposed equations were compared with the 10-year risk prediction model, which is developed for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese cohorts (China-PAR equation). C statistics of PA equations were 0.755 (95% confidence interval, 0.750-0.758) for men and 0.801 (95% confidence interval, 0.790-0.813) for women. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the validation set shows that the PA equations perform as good as the China-PAR. From calibration among four categories of predicted risks, the predicted risk rates by PA equations were almost identical to the Kaplan-Meier observed rates. Therefore, our developed sex-specific PA equations have effective performance for predicting CVD for physically active cohorts in the physical activity cohort in Kailuan.

Development of models to predict 10-30-year cardiovascular disease risk using the Da Qing IGT and diabetes study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equations for Chinese patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) to predict 10-, 20-, and 30-year of risk.

METHODS

Risk equations for forecasting the occurrence of CVD were developed using data from 601 patients with newly diagnosed T2D from the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study with a 30-year follow-up. The data were randomly assigned to a training and test data set. In the training data set, Cox proportional hazard regression was used to develop risk equations to predict CVD. Calibration was assessed by the slope and intercept of the line between predicted and observed probabilities of outcomes by quintile of risk, and discrimination was examined using Harrell's C statistic in the test data set. Using the Sankey flow diagram to describe the change of CVD risk over time.

RESULTS

Over the 30-year follow-up, corresponding to a 10,395 person-year follow-up time, 355 of 601 (59%) patients developed incident CVD; the incidence of CVD in the participants was 34.2 per 1,000 person-years. Age, sex, smoking status, 2-h plasma glucose level of oral glucose tolerance test, and systolic blood pressure were independent predictors. The C statistics of discrimination for the risk equations were 0.748 (95%CI, 0.710-0.782), 0.696 (95%CI, 0.655-0.704), and 0.687 (95%CI, 0.651-0.694) for 10-, 20-, and 30- year CVDs, respectively. The calibration statistics for the CVD risk equations of slope were 0.88 (P = 0.002), 0.89 (P = 0.027), and 0.94 (P = 0.039) for 10-, 20-, and 30-year CVDs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk equations forecast the long-term risk of CVD in patients with newly diagnosed T2D using variables readily available in routine clinical practice. By identifying patients at high risk for long-term CVD, clinicians were able to take the required primary prevention measures.

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk based on major contributing features

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a serious health threat to human society worldwide. The use of machine learning methods to predict the risk of CVD is of great relevance to identify high-risk patients and take timely interventions. In this study, we propose the XGBH machine learning model, which is a CVD risk prediction model based on key contributing features. In this paper, the generalisation of the model was enhanced by adding retrospective data of 14,832 Chinese Shanxi CVD patients to the kaggle dataset. The XGBH risk prediction model proposed in this paper was validated to be highly accurate (AUC = 0.81) compared to the baseline risk score (AUC = 0.65), and the accuracy of the model for CVD risk prediction was improved with the inclusion of the conventional biometric BMI variable. To increase the clinical application of the model, a simpler diagnostic model was designed in this paper, which requires only three characteristics from the patient (age, value of systolic blood pressure and whether cholesterol is normal or not) to enable early intervention in the treatment of high-risk patients with a slight reduction in accuracy (AUC = 0.79). Ultimately, a CVD risk score model with few features and high accuracy will be established based on the main contributing features. Of course, further prospective studies, as well as studies with other populations, are needed to assess the actual clinical effectiveness of the XGBH risk prediction model.

Relationship of Arterial Stiffness and Central Hemodynamics With Cardiovascular Risk In Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is becoming a serious public health problem and noninvasive estimation of central hemodynamics and artery stiffness have been identified as important predictors of cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The study included 4,311 participants, both sex and aged between 20 and 79 years. Arterial velocity pulse index, arterial pressure-volume index (AVI, API, and the index of artery stiffness), central systolic blood pressure, central artery pulse pressure (CSBP, CAPP, and estimated via oscillometric blood pressure monitor), and 10-year risk score of cardiovascular disease in China (China-PAR) and Framingham cardiovascular risk score (FCVRS) were assessed at baseline. Regression model was performed to identify factors associated with high cardiovascular disease risk stratification. The relationships between CSBP, CAPP and China-PAR, and FCVRS were analyzed by restrictive cubic spline functions.

RESULTS

The uncontrolled hypertension group showed the highest values of AVI, API, CSBP, and CAPP. In the regression analysis, CAPP and hypertension subtypes were identified as significant predictors of high cardiovascular risk stratification, and CAPP was strongly correlated with API in this cohort. Finally, CSBP and CAPP showed significant J-shaped relationships with China-PAR and FCVRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with uncontrolled hypertension present with elevated values of CAPP, CSBP, API, AVI, China-PAR, and FCVRS scores. CAPP was independently associated with high cardiovascular risk stratification, and there was a significant J-shaped relationship with China-PAR and FCVRS that may identify people with higher cardiovascular risk.

Associations of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition with the 10-year risk of atrial fibrillation: observations from a large prospective study of 348,904 participants

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown.

METHODS

A total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF.

RESULTS

The overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61-0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96-2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21-6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P < 0.001). Significant synergistic interactions were observed for risk factor burden with PRS at each index age (P < 0.05). Participants with an elevated risk factor burden and high PRS had the highest 10-year risk of AF in reference to those who had both an optimal risk factor burden and a low PRS. At younger ages, optimal risk burden and high PRS might also lead to later onset of AF, compared to the joint effect of elevated risk burden and low/intermediate PRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions.

Integrating polygenic and clinical risks to improve stroke risk stratification in prospective Chinese cohorts

The utility of the polygenic risk score (PRS) to identify individuals at higher risk of stroke beyond clinical risk remains unclear, and we clarified this using Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the 10-year risk, and Fine and Gray's models were used for hazard ratios (HRs), their 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and the lifetime risk according to PRS and clinical risk categories. A total of 41,006 individuals aged 30-75 years with a mean follow-up of 9.0 years were included. Comparing the top versus bottom 5% of the PRS, the HR was 3.01 (95%CI 2.03-4.45) in the total population, and similar findings were observed within clinical risk strata. Marked gradients in the 10-year and lifetime risk across PRS categories were also found within clinical risk categories. Notably, among individuals with intermediate clinical risk, the 10-year risk for those in the top 5% of the PRS (7.3%, 95%CI 7.1%-7.5%) reached the threshold of high clinical risk (⩾7.0%) for initiating preventive treatment, and this effect of the PRS on refining risk stratification was evident for ischemic stroke. Even among those in the top 10% and 20% of the PRS, the 10-year risk would also exceed this level when aged ⩾50 and ⩾60 years, respectively. Overall, the combination of the PRS with the clinical risk score improved the risk stratification within clinical risk strata and distinguished actual high-risk individuals with intermediate clinical risk.

Metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease identifies subjects with cardiovascular risk better than non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of mortality in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the association between CVD risk and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) or NAFLD and the influence of significant liver fibrosis on the CVD risk.

METHODS

Subjects who underwent a comprehensive medical check-up were recruited (2014-2019). Significant liver fibrosis was defined using NAFLD fibrosis score, fibrosis-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, or FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score. High probability of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) was defined as ASCVD risk score > 10%.

RESULTS

Of the study population (n = 78 762), 27 047 (34.3%) and 24 036 (30.5%) subjects had MAFLD and NAFLD respectively. A total of 1084 (4.0%) or 921 (3.8%) subjects had previous CVD history in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup respectively. The previous CVD history and high probability of ASCVD were significantly higher in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup with significant liver fibrosis than in the other groups (all p < .001). In multivariable analysis, MAFLD was independently associated with previous CVD history after adjusting for confounders (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.10, p = .038), whereas NAFLD was not (all p > .05). MAFLD (aOR = 1.40) or NAFLD (aOR = 1.22) was independently associated with high probability of ASCVD after full adjustment respectively (all p < .001). Significant liver fibrosis was independently associated with previous CVD history and high probability of ASCVD after adjustment in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup respectively (all p < .05).

CONCLUSION

MAFLD might better identify subjects with CVD risk than NAFLD. Fibrosis assessment might be helpful for detailed prognostication in subjects with MAFLD.

Association between pulse wave velocity and the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population: A community-based study

Accumulated evidence has shown that carotid-femoral and brachial-ankle PWV well predict cardiovascular events but it is still unclear if the predictability is same or not. In this cross-sectional study based on a community atherosclerosis cohort in Beijing, China, a total of 5282 participants without previous coronary heart disease and stroke were enrolled from a community atherosclerosis cohort in Beijing, China. The 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk were calculated by the China-PAR model, and < 5%, 5%-10% and > 10% were defined as low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The average baPWV and cfPWV values were 16.63 ± 3.35 m/s and 8.45 ± 1.78 m/s, respectively. The mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 6.98% (interquartile range: 3.90%-12.01%). The patients with low, intermediate, and high 10-year ASCVD risk accounted for 34.84% (1840), 31.94% (1687),, and 33.23% (1755) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that for every 1 m/s increase in baPWV and cfPWV, the 10-year ASCVD risk increased by 0.60% (95% confidence interval: 0.56%-0.65%, p < .001) and 1.17% (95% confidence interval: 1.09%-1.25%, p < .001), respectively. The diagnostic ability of the baPWV was comparable to the cfPWV (area under the curve: 0.870 [0.860-0.879] vs. 0.871 [0.861-0.881], p = .497). In conclusion, baPWV and cfPWV are positively associated with the 10-year risk of ASCVD in the Chinese community-based population, with a nearly identical association with a high 10-year risk of ASCVD.

Life's Essential 8 and 10-Year and Lifetime Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in China

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular health level according to the American Heart Association's Life's Essential 8 (LE8) in China and its effectiveness on the 10-year and lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases is unclear.

METHODS

This prospective study included 88,665 participants in the China-PAR cohort (data from 1998 to 2020) and 88,995 in the Kailuan cohort (data from 2006 to 2019). Analyses were conducted by November 2022. LE8 was measured according to the American Heart Association's LE8 algorithm, and a high cardiovascular health status was defined as a LE8 score ≥80 points. Participants were followed for the primary composite outcomes, including fatal and nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. The lifetime risk was estimated from the cumulative risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases through ages 20-85 years, the association of LE8 and LE8 change with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases was assessed with the Cox proportional-hazards model, and partial population-attributable risks evaluated the proportion of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases that could be averted.

RESULTS

The mean LE8 score was 70.0 in the China-PAR cohort and 64.6 in the Kailuan cohort, with 23.3% and 8.0% of participants having a high cardiovascular health status, respectively. Participants in the highest quintile had about 60% lower 10-year and lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in the China-PAR and Kailuan cohorts than participants with the lowest quintile LE8 score. If everyone maintained the highest quintile of LE8 score, approximately half of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases could be prevented. The participant with LE8 score that increased from the lowest to the highest tertile during 2006-2012 had a 44% (hazard ratio=0.56; 95% CI=0.45, 0.69) lower observed risk and a 43% (hazard ratio=0.57; 95% CI=0.46, 0.70) lower lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases than those remaining in the lowest tertile in the Kailuan cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The LE8 score was below optimal levels in Chinese adults. A high baseline LE8 score and an improving LE8 score were associated with decreased 10-year and lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases.

Impact of cardiovascular health and genetic risk on coronary artery disease in Chinese adults

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether adherence to ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) can mitigate the genetic risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in non-European populations.

METHODS

Fine and Grey's models were used to calculate HRs and their corresponding 95% CIs, as well as the lifetime risk of CVH metrics across Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) categories.

RESULTS

We included 39 755 individuals aged 30-75 years in Chinese prospective cohorts. 1275 CAD cases were recorded over a mean follow-up of 12.9 years. Compared with unfavourable CVH profile (zero to three ideal CVH metrics), favourable CVH profile (six to seven ideal CVH metrics) demonstrated similar relative effects across PRS categories, with the HRs of 0.40 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.67), 0.41 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.52) and 0.36 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.52) in low (bottom quintile of PRS), intermediate (two to four quintiles of PRS) and high (top quintile of PRS) PRS categories, respectively. For the absolute risk reduction (ARR), individuals with high PRS achieved the greatest benefit from favourable CVH, mitigating the risk to the average level of population (from 21.1% to 8.7%), and the gradient was strengthened in individuals at the top 5% of PRS. Moreover, compared with individuals at low PRS, those at high PRS obtained longer CAD-free years (2.6 vs 1.1) from favourable CVH at the index age of 35 years.

CONCLUSION

Favourable CVH profile reduced the CAD relative risk by similar magnitude across PRS categories, while the ARR from favourable CVH was most pronounced in high PRS category. Attaining favourable CVH should be encouraged for all individuals, especially in individuals with high genetic susceptibility.

Cost-effectiveness of Intensive vs Standard Blood Pressure Control Among Older Patients With Hypertension

IMPORTANCE

Older patients with hypertension receiving intensive systolic blood pressure control (110-130 mm Hg) have lower incidences of cardiovascular events than those receiving standard control (130-150 mm Hg). Nevertheless, the mortality reduction is insignificant, and intensive blood pressure management results in more medical costs from treatments and subsequent adverse events.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the incremental lifetime outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of intensive vs standard blood pressure control in older patients with hypertension from the health care payer's perspective.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic analysis was conducted with a Markov model to examine the cost-effectiveness of intensive blood pressure management among patients aged 60 to 80 years with hypertension. Treatment outcome data from the Trial of Intensive Blood-Pressure Control in Older Patients With Hypertension (STEP trial) and different cardiovascular risk assessment models for a hypothetical cohort of STEP-eligible patients were used. Costs and utilities were obtained from published sources. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) against the willingness-to-pay threshold was used to evaluate whether the management was cost-effective. Extensive sensitivity, subgroup, and scenario analyses were performed to address uncertainty. The US and UK population using race-specific cardiovascular risk models were conducted in the generalizability analysis. Data for the STEP trial were collected from February 10 to March 10, 2022, and were analyzed for the present study from March 10 to May 15, 2022.

INTERVENTIONS

Hypertension treatments with a systolic blood pressure target of 110 to 130 mm Hg or 130 to 150 mm Hg.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incremental lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and ICER are discounted at the given rates annually.

RESULTS

After simulating 10 000 STEP-eligible patients assumed to be 66 years of age (4650 men [46.5%] and 5350 women [53.5%]) in the model, the ICER values were ¥51 675 ($12 362) per QALY gained in China, $25 417 per QALY gained in the US, and £4679 ($7004) per QALY gained in the UK. Simulations projected that the intensive management in China being cost-effective were 94.3% and 100% below the willingness-to-pay thresholds of 1 time (¥89 300 [$21 364]/QALY) and 3 times (¥267 900 [$64 090]/QALY) the gross domestic product per capita, respectively. The US had 86.9% and 95.6% probabilities of cost-effectiveness at $50 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY, respectively, and the UK had 99.1% and 100% of probabilities of cost-effectiveness at £20 000 ($29 940)/QALY and £30 000 ($44 910)/QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this economic evaluation, the intensive systolic blood pressure control in older patients produced fewer cardiovascular events and had acceptable costs per QALY gained, well below the typical willingness-to-pay thresholds. The cost-effective advantages of intensive blood pressure management in older patients were consistent over various clinical scenarios across different countries.

Association of Physical Activity With Risk of Liver Fibrosis, Sarcopenia, and Cardiovascular Disease in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

International guidelines recommend physical activity for subjects with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study investigated the association of physical activity with risk of liver fibrosis, sarcopenia, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in NAFLD.

METHODS

In this multicenter, retrospective study, 11,690 NAFLD subjects who underwent a health screening program and were assessed for physical activity (metabolic equivalent task [MET]-min/week) between 2014 and 2020 were recruited. Liver fibrosis was assessed by using the fibrosis-4 index, NAFLD fibrosis score, and FibroScan-AST score, sarcopenia by using multi-frequency bioelectric impedance analysis, and CVD risk by using atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score, and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score were calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of fibrosis, sarcopenia, high probability of ASCVD, and high CAC score significantly decreased with increasing quartiles of physical activity (all P for trend <.001). In a fully adjusted model, physical activity above 600 MET-min/week (≥third quartile) was independently associated with a reduced risk of fibrosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.86), sarcopenia (aOR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.58-0.88), high probability of ASCVD (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.46-0.73), and high CAC score (aOR = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.13-0.83; all P <.05). In addition, increasing amounts of physical activity were significantly associated with risk reduction between fibrosis, sarcopenia, and high probability of ASCVD (all P for trend <.001). In subjects with sarcopenic obesity or lean NAFLD, physical activity was also independently associated with reduced risk of fibrosis and high probability of ASCVD (all P <.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity showed a protective effect against fibrosis, sarcopenia, and CVD in NAFLD.

Development and validation of risk prediction models for stroke and mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes in northern China

BACKGROUND

Stroke is one of the leading causes of disability and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Risk models have been developed for predicting stroke and stroke-associated mortality among patients with T2DM. Here, we evaluated risk factors of stroke for individualized prevention measures in patients with T2DM in northern China.

METHODS

In the community-based Tianjin Chronic Disease Cohort study, 58,042 patients were enrolled between January 2014 and December 2019. We used multiple imputation (MI) to impute missing variables and univariate and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression to screen risk factors of stroke. Furthermore, we established and validated first-ever prediction models for stroke (Model 1 and Model 2) and death from stroke (Model 3) and evaluated their performance.

RESULTS

In the derivation and validation groups, the area under the curves (AUCs) of Models 1-3 was better at 5 years than at 8 years. The Harrell's C-index for all models was above 0.7. All models had good calibration, discrimination, and clinical net benefit. Sensitivity analysis using the MI dataset indicated that all models had good and stable prediction performance.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we developed and validated first-ever risk prediction models for stroke and death from stroke in patients with T2DM, with good discrimination and calibration observed in all models. Based on lifestyle, demographic characteristics, and laboratory examination, these models could provide multidimensional management and individualized risk assessment. However, the models developed here may only be applicable to Han Chinese.

Changes in fasting blood glucose status and incidence of cardiovascular disease: The China-PAR project

BACKGROUND

The effect of long-standing prediabetes or its transition on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the association of changes in fasting blood glucose (FBG) status with the risk of developing CVD.

METHODS

This research included 12 145 Chinese adults aged 35-74 years and free from diabetes mellitus (DM) at baseline. Study participants were cross-classified into six categories according to glucose at the first (1998-2001) and the second visit after 8 years: normal fasting glucose (NFG; 50-99 mg/dl), impaired FBG (IFG; 100-125 mg/dl), and DM. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD associated with transition of glucose status.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 373 incident CVD cases occurred. Compared with participants remaining persistent NFG, a higher risk of developing CVD was identified among those remaining persistent IFG, progressing to DM from NFG or from IFG, with the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.792 (1.141, 2.816), 1.723 (1.122, 2.645) and 1.946 (1.120, 3.381), respectively. Furthermore, when stratified by glucose status at baseline, persistent IFG and progression from IFG to DM still increased CVD risk in comparison with reversion from IFG to NFG, with the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.594 (1.003, 2.532) and 1.913 (1.080, 3.389).

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with long-standing IFG and progressing to DM had a higher risk of developing CVD. Further well-designed studies are warranted to assess the association of other phenotypes or prediabetes duration with CVD.

Contribution and Effects of PM2.5-Bound Lead to the Cardiovascular Risk of Workers in a Non-Ferrous Metal Smelting Area Considering Chemical Speciation and Bioavailability

Lead is known to have toxic effects on the cardiovascular system. Owing to its high concentration, transmission range, and absorption efficiency in organisms, inhalation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-bound lead (PM2.5-Pb) may cause significant cardiovascular damage. However, the contribution and adverse effects of PM2.5-Pb on workers and residents in non-ferrous metal smelting areas are not fully understood. In this work, the concentration and chemical speciation of PM2.5-Pb were analyzed to determine its pollution characteristics at a typical non-ferrous metal smelting site. A panel study conducted among factory workers revealed that PM2.5-Pb exposure makes an important contribution to the human absorption of Pb. Although the chemical speciation of PM2.5-Pb suggested poor water solubility, a high bioavailability was observed in mice (tissue average value: 50.1%, range: 31.1-71.1%) subjected to inhalation exposure for 8 weeks. Based on the bioavailability data, the relationship between PM2.5-Pb exposure and cardiovascular damage was evaluated in animal simulation experiments. Finally, a damage threshold and cardiovascular-specific risk assessment model were established for the non-ferrous metal smelting area. Our project not only accurately estimates the risk of PM2.5-bound heavy metals on the cardiovascular system but also offers a scientific basis for future prevention and therapy of PM2.5-Pb-related diseases.

Flavonifractor plautii Protects Against Elevated Arterial Stiffness

BACKGROUND

Dysbiosis of gut microbiota plays a pivotal role in vascular dysfunction and microbial diversity was reported to be inversely correlated with arterial stiffness. However, the causal role of gut microbiota in the progression of arterial stiffness and the specific species along with the molecular mechanisms underlying this change remain largely unknown.

METHODS

Participants with elevated arterial stiffness and normal controls free of medication were matched for age and sex. The microbial composition and metabolic capacities between the 2 groups were compared with the integration of metagenomics and metabolomics. Subsequently, Ang II (angiotensin II)-induced and humanized mouse model were employed to evaluate the protective effect of Flavonifractor plautii (F plautii) and its main effector cis-aconitic acid.

RESULTS

Human fecal metagenomic sequencing revealed a significantly high abundance and centrality of F plautii in normal controls, which was absent in the microbial community of subjects with elevated arterial stiffness. Moreover, blood pressure only mediated part of the effect of F plautii on lower arterial stiffness. The microbiome of normal controls exhibited an enhanced capacity for glycolysis and polysaccharide degradation, whereas, those of subjects with increased arterial stiffness were characterized by increased biosynthesis of fatty acids and aromatic amino acids. Integrative analysis with metabolomics profiling further suggested that increased cis-aconitic acid served as the main effector for the protective effect of F plautii against arterial stiffness. Replenishment with F plautii and cis-aconitic acid improved elastic fiber network and reversed increased pulse wave velocity through the suppression of MMP-2 (matrix metalloproteinase-2) and inhibition of MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1) and NF-κB (nuclear factor kappa-B) activation in both Ang II-induced and humanized model of arterial stiffness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our translational study identifies a novel link between F plautii and arterial function and raises the possibility of sustaining vascular health by targeting gut microbiota.

Improved HDL Cholesterol through Vitamin D Status Correction Substantially Lowers 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score in Vitamin D-Deficient Arab Adults

This interventional study aimed to determine whether correcting vitamin D status in deficient Arab adults [25(OH)D <50 nmol/L] improves their 10-year risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk scores. Saudi adults (58 males 62 females) with baseline vitamin D deficiency (<50 nmol/L) were given 50,000 IU cholecalciferol weekly for 2 months, then twice a month, followed by daily 1000 IU until month 6. Fasting blood samples were collected pre- and post-intervention and assessed for glucose, lipids, and 25(OH)D levels. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk scores were calculated at baseline and after intervention. At baseline, significantly higher 10-year ASCDV risk scores were observed in males than females (9% vs. 3%, p < 0.001). After 6 months, only 21% (25 out of 120) achieved 25(OH)D levels above optimal level (≥75 nmol/L). While modest improvements were seen in glucose and lipid profiles, only HDL cholesterol showed favorable significant changes in all participants, which translated to significantly improved 10-year ASCVD risk scores independent of whether they achieved optimum vitamin D status. Still, those who achieved optimal vitamin D levels had a modestly larger decrease in ASCVD risk scores than those with less optimal 25(OH)D levels (-23% versus -18%) and this improvement was slightly more pronounced in males (-26% versus -10%, or 16% improvement) than females (-47% versus -32%, or 15% improvement). In conclusion, vitamin D status correction significantly enhances HDL cholesterol which prospectively reduces 10-year ASCVD risk as vitamin D levels approach optimum status among adult Arabs with baseline vitamin D deficiency. This improvement appears to be slightly more apparent in males than females.

Increased arterial pressure volume index and cardiovascular risk score in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The new non-invasive arterial stiffness indices, arterial pressure volume index (API) is explored as a novel marker of residual stress in the wall of the peripheral muscular arteries at zero-stress state in clinical settings. The present study aimed to study the association of API with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in China (China-PAR).

METHODS

According to China-PAR score, participants were divided into three groups: low risk (< 5%), medium risk (5-9.9%), and high risk (≥ 10.0%). API ≥ 31 was defined as high API, and the incidences of high API were compared. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk factors of high API and high risk China-PAR categories. The association between China-PAR and API was analyzed by restrictive cubic spline.

RESULTS

The study included 4311 participants. After adjustments for confounding factors, high API was independent factor associated with high risk China-PAR categories, and the probability of high API was 1.366 times higher than that in normal API subjects. While, the independent factors associated with high API were BMI, blood pressure and heart rate. Furthermore, API had a significant U-shaped association with China-PAR. CVD risk was lowest with API of 19 units, the fastest increase at 26 units and the flattest starting point at 59 units.

CONCLUSION

API, an indicator of arterial stiffness and residual stress, had a U-shaped association with China-PAR score and might play an important role in predicting CVD risk in Chinese natural populations.

Exposure to construction dust and health impacts - A review

Construction dust contributes a significant proportion of airborne particulate matter, affecting the health of its surrounding environment and population. Construction workers are normally exposed to dust at high levels and bear severe health risks. The existing articles concerning the exposure and health impacts of construction dust are limited, but this research field has received more and more attention. This work reviews literature in the field and tries to systematically assess the current research state. Here, we review (1) methods used to monitor or sample construction dust; (2) main characteristics of construction dust, including dust classification, exposed populations, and exposure concentrations; (3) potential health hazards and (4) health risk assessment of construction dust. From existing literature, the exposure concentrations of different types and sources of construction dust are usually the focus of attention, while its particle size distribution and chemical composition are rarely mentioned. The classification and characteristics of populations exposed to construction dust ought to be a key consideration but not clear enough so far. There still lacks in-depth study of health hazards and systematic assessment of risks associated with construction dust. In future, it is valuable to develop utility instruments to precisely monitor construction dust. Besides, control means to reduce the pollution of construction dust deserve more studies. Health hazards of construction dust should be verified by biological experiments. Moreover, emerging algorithm models should be utilized in the risk assessment. The findings will help gain a better understanding of construction dust exposure and associated health risks.

The association of long-term ambient fine particulate matter exposure with blood pressure among Chinese adults

Previous studies indicated that long-term exposure to high level of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) was associated with elevated blood pressure (BP) and hypertension, but most of them were conducted in high-income countries with low PM_2.5 level. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the adverse impacts of long-term exposure to PM_2.5 on BP and hypertension in China with high concentration. A total of 99,084 adults aged ≥18 years old were included from three cohorts among the project of Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China. PM_2.5 concentrations during 2000-2015 at 1 × 1 km spatial resolution were evaluated using satellite-based spatiotemporal models. Generalized estimating equation was applied to assess the impact of three-year average PM_2.5 concentrations on BP level and hypertension. We also examined whether health status and lifestyles modified the effects of PM_2.5 on BP and hypertension. Generally, high concentration of PM_2.5 was associated with increased BP level and higher risk of hypertension. With each 10 μg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 concentration, systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) increased by 1.67 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48, 1.86] mmHg and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.56) mmHg, and the prevalence of hypertension increased by 29% [odds ratio (OR): 1.29, 95% CI: 1.26, 1.32]. In comparison with the first quartile of PM_2.5 concentration, SBP, DBP and prevalence of hypertension in the fourth quartile were increased by 8.26 (95% CI: 7.73, 8.80) mmHg, 2.85 (95% CI: 2.55, 3.15) mmHg, and 133% (OR: 2.33, 95% CI: 2.21, 2.47), respectively, in the fully adjusted model. However, the relationships of PM_2.5 with BP might be non-linear, as BP level started to decline when PM_2.5 exceeded 75 μg/m³. In conclusion, long-term PM_2.5 exposure could elevate BP level and prevalence of hypertension. People living in high-polluted areas should strengthen their awareness of prevention.

Serum creatinine levels, traditional cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year cardiovascular risk in Chinese patients with hypertension

BACKGROUND

Serum creatinine is associated with cardiovascular risk and cardiovascular events, however, the relationship between serum creatinine levels and cardiovascular risk is not well established in hypertensive population in Jiangsu Province. We aimed to evaluate the association of serum creatinine levels with traditional cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year cardiovascular risk in a Chinese hypertensive population.

METHODS

Participants were patients with hypertension registered and enrolled in health service centers in 5 counties or districts from January 2019 to May 2020 in Jiangsu Province of China followed strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, demographics as well as clinical indicators and disease history and lifestyle were collected. Participants were divided into four groups according to quartiles of serum creatinine levels, then the China-PAR model was used to calculate 10-year cardiovascular risk for each individual.

RESULTS

A total of 9978 participants were enrolled in this study, 4173(41.82%) were males. The blood pressure level and prevalence of dyslipidemia, elderly, current smokers and drinking as well as obesity were higher in the Q4 group than the Q1 group (all P < 0.05). Multivariable logistic regression showed that serum creatinine in the Q4 group compared with that in the Q1 group was positively associated with overweight and obesity (OR=1.432, 95% CI 1.237-1.658, P<0.001), while negatively associated with physical activity (OR=0.189, 95%CI 0.165-0.217, P<0.001), and so on. Multiple linear regression showed 10-year cardiovascular risk is positively associated with serum creatinine levels after adjusting for multiple risk factors (β=0.432, P< 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Serum creatinine was associated with several traditional cardiovascular risk factors and the 10-year cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. Creatinine-reduction and kidney-sparing therapy are essential for patients with hypertension to optimize control of cardiovascular risk.

Clinical effect of Danshen decoction in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

The incidence of heart failure (HF) is increasing year by year, posing a great threat to human health. Although pharmacotherapy has been able to significantly prolong patient survival, pharmacotherapy for HF still has limitations due to its complex pathogenesis and considerable individual variability, there is a great need to explore complementary and alternative therapies to slow down the progression of HF. Danshen decoction is used to treat several cardiovascular diseases including HF, but the efficacy of stabilization is uncertain. This meta-analysis evaluated the clinical efficacy of Danshen Decoction for the treatment of HF.

METHODS

The registration number assigned to this meta-analysis on the PROSPERO platform is CRD42022351918. Four databases were searched, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of Danshen decoction combined with conventional treatment (CT) of HF were screened, CT included medical treatments other than Danshen Decoction to which the patient was treated (including but not limited to angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, angiotensin receptor blocker, angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors, β-blockers, diuretics, mineralcorticoid recept antagonist etc.). The clinical efficacy rate (CER), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were included as outcome indicators. The GRADE grading scale was used to grade the above indicators. The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool and the Jadad quality scale were used to assess the methodological quality of RCTs. Finally, RevMan V.4.5 software was used for data synthesis, 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous data, risk ratios (RR), and mean differences (MD) for continuous variables were calculated, Chi-square and I2 were used for heterogeneity assessment.

RESULTS

Nine RCTs with a total of 855 patients were included in this study, and all included RCTs had a low overall quality risk of bias and high quality of reported information. The results of the meta-analysis showed that compared with the use of CT, CER (%) was significantly improved due to Danshen decoction combined with CT (MD = 3.95, 95% CI [2.58, 6.04], P < 0.00001), LVEF (%) was significantly improved (MD = 5.46, 95% CI [5.32, 5.60], P < 0.00001), LVEDD (mm) was significantly reduced (MD = -5.27, 95% CI [-6.21, -4.32], P < 0.00001), LVESD (mm) was significantly reduced (MD = -4.60, 95% CI [-5.87, -3.32], P < 0.00001), BNP (pg/mL) was significantly reduced (MD = -88.61, 95% CI [-121.98, -55.24], P < 0.00001), NT-proBNP (pg/mL) was significantly decreased (SMD = -3.33, 95% CI [-5.92, -0.73], P = 0.01), hs-CRP (mg/L) was significantly decreased (MD = -2.73, 95% CI [-4.11, -1.34], P = 0.0001). The quality of the GRADE evidence for all outcomes was moderate to low and no RCTs reported adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Our research demonstrates that Danshen decoction is an effective and safe treatment option for HF. Nevertheless, considering the limitations of methodological and the quality of RCTs, more rigorous, large-scale, multicenter randomized clinical trials are needed to further evaluate the efficacy and safety of Danshen decoction in the treatment of HF patients.

Intervention of Compound Xueshuantong Capsule on the incidence of heart failure in patients with acute myocardial infarction after PCI based on the combination of disease and syndrome: A multi-center, randomized, double-blind, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF), manifested as a severe or end stage of various cardiac diseases, is characterized by increased incidence, mortality, re-hospitalization, and economic burden. Myocardial infarction (MI) is one of the most common and important causes of HF. Since 2005, acute MI (AMI)-associated mortality in China has been on the rise, and MI accounts for 23.1% of the causes of HF. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has the unique advantages of controlling angina pectoris and HF symptoms, and improving patients' quality of life. Compound Xueshuantong Capsule (CXSTC), also named as Fufang Xueshuantong Capsule, has the effect of increasing cardiac output and protecting myocardial function. In this trial, we aim to investigate the efficacy and safety of CXSTC in the prophylactic treatment of post-infarction HF and attempt to provide a clinical evidence-based basis for the prophylactic treatment of HF after AMI using TCM.

METHODS

This will be a multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-parallel controlled trial. A total of 300 patients diagnosed with AMI and undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention within 12 hours of diagnosis will be randomized 1:1 into 2 groups: the control group that will be administered conventional Western medicine plus placebo and the trial group that will be administered XST along with the conventional Western medicine. The duration of treatment will be 3 months and the follow-up will be up to 6 months for both groups. The main efficacy indicator is the incidence of HF. The secondary efficacy indicators are cardiac function classification, 6-minute walk test score, TCM syndrome score, survival quality score, brain natriuretic peptide level, ultrasensitive C-reactive protein level, and cardiac ultrasound result. Data will be collected to analyze the underlying mechanisms by using IBM SPSS 23.0 software.

DISCUSSION

By investigating the efficacy and safety of CXSTC, this study will provide a clinical evidence base for the use of TCM in the prophylactic treatment of post-infarction HF.

Machine learning identifies prominent factors associated with cardiovascular disease: findings from two million adults in the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study (KPCS)

BACKGROUND

Identifying factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is critical for its prevention, but this topic is scarcely investigated in Kashgar prefecture, Xinjiang, northwestern China. We thus explored the CVD epidemiology and identified prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.

METHODS

A total of 1,887,710 adults at baseline (in 2017) of the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study were included in the analysis. Sixteen candidate factors, including seven demographic factors, 4 lifestyle factors, and 5 clinical factors, were collected from a questionnaire and health examination records. CVD was defined according to International Clinical Diagnosis (ICD-10) codes. We first used logistic regression models to investigate the association between each of the candidate factors and CVD. Then, we employed 3 machine learning methods-Random Forest, Random Ferns, and Extreme Gradient Boosting-to rank and identify prominent factors associated with CVD. Stratification analyses by sex, ethnicity, education level, economic status, and residential setting were also performed to test the consistency of the ranking.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CVD in Kashgar prefecture was 8.1%. All the 16 candidate factors were confirmed to be significantly associated with CVD (odds ratios ranged from 1.03 to 2.99, all p values < 0.05) in logistic regression models. Further machine learning-based analysis suggested that age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern were the five most prominent factors associated with CVD. The ranking of relative importance for prominent factors in stratification analyses showed that the factor importance generally followed the same pattern as that in the overall sample.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD is a major public health concern in Kashgar prefecture. Age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern might be the prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.In the future, these factors should be given priority in preventing CVD in future.

Association between 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Chinese People with Normal to Slightly Reduced Kidney Function: A Cross-Sectional Study

Many studies suggest that cardiovascular-related mortality is higher in patients with end-stage renal disease, but few focus on the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in subjects with normal to slightly reduced kidney function. Our study aimed to explore the association between normal to slightly decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and 10-year ASCVD risk levels among subjects with relative health conditions. A total of 12,986 subjects from the Chinese Physiological Constant and Health Condition survey were included. We used the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations to calculate eGFR and the 10-year ASCVD risk scores to assess the subjects' risk of 10-year ASCVD. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the association between ASCVD risk levels and eGFR, and adjust the possible confounding factors. Results indicated that the 10-year ASCVD risk scores gradually increased following the decrease in eGFR. Subjects who had smaller eGFR were more likely to have a greater risk of 10-year ASCVD. Additionally, the association between eGFR and 10-year ASCVD risk level changed with varying eGFR. The risk of one or more levels increasing in the 10-year ASCVD risk group was 5.20 times (Quartile 2 [Q2], 95%CI: 3.90, 6.94), 9.47 times (Q3, 95%CI: 7.15, 12.53) and 11.41 times (Q4, 95%CI: 8.61, 15.12) higher compared with Q1. We found that eGFR was significantly associated with 10-year ASCVD risk among Chinese subjects with normal to slightly reduced kidney function. Therefore, clinicians should strengthen the monitoring of cardiovascular risk in patients with renal impairment (even if renal function is only mildly reduced), assess the patients' risk of ASCVD, and take early action in high-risk groups to reduce the risk of adverse atherosclerotic cardiovascular events.

Genetic risk modifies the effect of long-term fine particulate matter exposure on coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Although both environmental and genetic factors were linked to coronary artery disease (CAD), the extent to which the association of air pollution exposure with CAD can be influenced by genetic risk was not well understood.

METHODS

A total of 41,149 participants recruited from the project of Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) were included. Genetic risk scores of CAD were constructed based on 540 genetic variants. Long-term PM_2.5 exposures were assessed by adopting satellite-based PM_2.5 estimations at 1-km resolution. We used stratified Cox proportional hazards regression model to examine the impact of PM_2.5 exposure and genetic risk on CAD risk, and further analyzed modification effect of genetic predisposition on association between PM_2.5 exposure and CAD risk.

RESULTS

During a median of 13.01 years of follow-up, 1,373 incident CAD events were observed. Long-term PM_2.5 exposure significantly increased CAD risk, and the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were 1.27 (1.05-1.54) and 1.95 (1.57-2.42) among intermediate and high PM_2.5 exposure groups compared to low PM_2.5 exposure group. The relative risks of CAD were 40% (HR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.18-1.66) and 133% (HR: 2.33, 95%CI: 1.94-2.79) higher among individuals at intermediate and high genetic risk than those at low genetic risk. Compared with individuals with both low genetic risk and low PM_2.5 exposure, those with high genetic risk and high PM_2.5 exposure had highest CAD risk, with HR of 4.37 (95%CI: 3.13-6.11). We observed significant multiplicative (P < 0.001) and additive interaction [relative excess risk due to interaction (95%CI): 2.75 (1.32-4.20); attributable proportion due to interaction (95%CI): 0.56 (0.42-0.70)] between genetic risk and PM_2.5 exposure on CAD.

CONCLUSION

This study provided evidence that long-term PM_2.5 exposure might increase CAD risk, especially among people at high genetic risk. Our findings highlighted the importance of taking strategies on air quality improvement to cardiovascular disease prevention.