Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change

Guidelines for planning genomic assessment and monitoring of locally adaptive variation to inform species conservation

Identifying and monitoring locally adaptive genetic variation can have direct utility for conserving species at risk, especially when management may include actions such as translocations for restoration, genetic rescue, or assisted gene flow. However, genomic studies of local adaptation require careful planning to be successful, and in some cases may not be a worthwhile use of resources. Here, we offer an adaptive management framework to help conservation biologists and managers decide when genomics is likely to be effective in detecting local adaptation, and how to plan assessment and monitoring of adaptive variation to address conservation objectives. Studies of adaptive variation using genomic tools will inform conservation actions in many cases, including applications such as assisted gene flow and identifying conservation units. In others, assessing genetic diversity, inbreeding, and demographics using selectively neutral genetic markers may be most useful. And in some cases, local adaptation may be assessed more efficiently using alternative approaches such as common garden experiments. Here, we identify key considerations of genomics studies of locally adaptive variation, provide a road map for successful collaborations with genomics experts including key issues for study design and data analysis, and offer guidelines for interpreting and using results from genomic assessments to inform monitoring programs and conservation actions.

Thermal physiology of Amazonian lizards (Reptilia: Squamata)

We summarize thermal-biology data of 69 species of Amazonian lizards, including mode of thermoregulation and field-active body temperatures (Tb). We also provide new data on preferred temperatures (Tpref), voluntary and thermal-tolerance ranges, and thermal-performance curves (TPC's) for 27 species from nine sites in the Brazilian Amazonia. We tested for phylogenetic signal and pairwise correlations among thermal traits. We found that species generally categorized as thermoregulators have the highest mean values for all thermal traits, and broader ranges for Tb, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and optimal (Topt) temperatures. Species generally categorized as thermoconformers have large ranges for Tpref, critical thermal minimum (CTmin), and minimum voluntary (VTmin) temperatures for performance. Despite these differences, our results show that all thermal characteristics overlap between both groups and suggest that Amazonian lizards do not fit into discrete thermoregulatory categories. The traits are all correlated, with the exceptions of (1) Topt, which does not correlate with CTmax, and (2) CTmin, and correlates only with Topt. Weak phylogenetic signals for Tb, Tpref and VTmin indicate that these characters may be shaped by local environmental conditions and influenced by phylogeny. We found that open-habitat species perform well under present environmental conditions, without experiencing detectable thermal stress from high environmental temperatures induced in lab experiments. For forest-dwelling lizards, we expect warming trends in Amazonia to induce thermal stress, as temperatures surpass the thermal tolerances for these species.

Mitochondrial phylogeography of the Iberian endemic frog Rana iberica, with implications for its conservation

Genetic characterization of species using phylogeographic approaches represents a basic reference to understand their evolutionary history as well as to identify conservation priorities to protect areas of particular interest regarding evolutionary potential. Even in well-studied regions such information is lacking for the majority of species, including many endemic species with reduced distribution ranges. We investigate the phylogeographic pattern of the Iberian frog Rana iberica, an endemic amphibian restricted to Central and North-Western Iberian Peninsula. Using mitochondrial sequences, we reconstruct the phylogeographic history of the species to test the effect of Quaternary climate changes on the evolutionary diversification of lineages, that is, the differentiation of mitochondrial lineages and the formation of genetic diversity melting pots, and integrate phylogeographic evidence for future conservation planning. Our results indicate the existence of 3 main mitochondrial lineages differentiated during the Upper Pleistocene. Both historical demographic analyses and climatic niche modeling show a strong effect of glacial climate changes, suggesting recurrent range contractions and expansions. Under such circumstances, differentiation took place most likely by isolation in allopatric interglacial refugia. Secondary lineage admixture in northern Portugal generated a broad mixed zone with highest nucleotide diversity. Given its particular evolutionary potential, its reduced distribution and eventual threats under current climate change scenario, conservation priorities should focus on the isolated lineage from Sierra de Guadalupe.

Photosynthetic variation and responsiveness to CO2 in a widespread riparian tree

Phenotypic responses to rising CO2 will have consequences for the productivity and management of the world's forests. This has been demonstrated through extensive free air and controlled environment CO2 enrichment studies. However intraspecific variation in plasticity remains poorly characterised in trees, with the capacity to produce unexpected trends in response to CO2 across a species distribution. Here we examined variation in photosynthesis traits across 43 provenances of a widespread, genetically diverse eucalypt, E. camaldulensis, under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions. Genetic variation suggestive of local adaptation was identified for some traits under ambient conditions. Evidence of genotype by CO2 interaction in responsiveness was limited, however support was identified for quantum yield (φ). In this case local adaptation was invoked to explain trends in provenance variation in response. The results suggest potential for genetic variation to influence a limited set of photosynthetic responses to rising CO2 in seedlings of E. camaldulensis, however further assessment in mature stage plants in linkage with growth and fitness traits is needed to understand whether trends in φ could have broader implications for productivity of red gum forests.

Are local plants the best for ecosystem restoration? It depends on how you analyze the data

One of the key questions in ecosystem restoration is the choice of the seed material for restoring plant communities. The most common strategy is to use local seed sources, based on the argument that many plants are locally adapted and thus local seed sources should provide the best restoration success. However, the evidence for local adaptation is inconsistent, and some of these inconsistencies may be due to different experimental approaches that have been used to test for local adaptation. We illustrate how conclusions about local adaptation depend on the experimental design and in particular on the method of data analysis. We used data from a multispecies reciprocal transplant experiment and analyzed them in three different ways: (1) comparing local vs. foreign plants within species and sites, corresponding to tests of the “local is best” paradigm in ecological restoration, (2) comparing sympatric vs. allopatric populations across sites but within species, and (3) comparing sympatric and allopatric populations across multiple species. These approaches reflect different experimental designs: While a local vs. foreign comparison can be done even in small experiments with a single species and site, the other two approaches require a reciprocal transplant experiment with one or multiple species, respectively. The three different analyses led to contrasting results. While the local/foreign approach indicated lack of local adaptation or even maladaptation, the more general sympatric/allopatric approach rather suggested local adaptation, and the most general cross‐species sympatric/allopatric test provided significant evidence for local adaptation. The analyses demonstrate how the design of experiments and methods of data analysis impact conclusions on the presence or absence of local adaptation. While small‐scale, single‐species experiments may be useful for identifying the appropriate seed material for a specific restoration project, general patterns can only be detected in reciprocal transplant experiments with multiple species and sites.

Environmental and geographic variables are effective surrogates for genetic variation in conservation planning

Protected areas buffer species from anthropogenic threats and provide places for the processes that generate and maintain biodiversity to continue. However, genetic variation, the raw material for evolution, is difficult to capture in conservation planning, not least because genetic data require considerable resources to obtain and analyze. Here we show that freely available environmental and geographic distance variables can be highly effective surrogates in conservation planning for representing adaptive and neutral intraspecific genetic variation. We obtained occurrence and genetic data from the IntraBioDiv project for 27 plant species collected over the European Alps using a gridded sampling scheme. For each species, we identified loci that were potentially under selection using outlier loci methods, and mapped their main gradients of adaptive and neutral genetic variation across the grid cells. We then used the cells as planning units to prioritize protected area acquisitions. First, we verified that the spatial patterns of environmental and geographic variation were correlated, respectively, with adaptive and neutral genetic variation. Second, we showed that these surrogates can predict the proportion of genetic variation secured in randomly generated solutions. Finally, we discovered that solutions based only on surrogate information secured substantial amounts of adaptive and neutral genetic variation. Our work paves the way for widespread integration of surrogates for genetic variation into conservation planning.

Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species, Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.

Genetic conservation and management of the California endemic, Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry): Implications of genetic rescue in a genetically depauperate species

Rare species present a challenge under changing environmental conditions as the genetic consequences of rarity may limit species ability to adapt to environmental change. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of a rare species, we assessed variation in traits important to plant fitness using multigenerational common garden experiments. Torrey pine, Pinus torreyana Parry, is one of the rarest pines in the world, restricted to one mainland and one island population. Morphological differentiation between island and mainland populations suggests adaptation to local environments may have contributed to trait variation. The distribution of phenotypic variances within the common garden suggests distinct population-specific growth trajectories underlay genetic differences, with the island population exhibiting substantially reduced genetic variance for growth relative to the mainland population. Furthermore, F1 hybrids, representing a cross between mainland and island trees, exhibit increased height accumulation and fecundity relative to mainland and island parents. This may indicate genetic rescue via intraspecific hybridization could provide the necessary genetic variation to persist in environments modified as a result of climate change. Long-term common garden experiments, such as these, provide invaluable resources to assess the distribution of genetic variance that may inform conservation strategies to preserve evolutionary potential of rare species, including genetic rescue.

Multispecies genetic objectives in spatial conservation planning

Growing threats to biodiversity and global alteration of habitats and species distributions make it increasingly necessary to consider evolutionary patterns in conservation decision making. Yet, there is no clear-cut guidance on how genetic features can be incorporated into conservation-planning processes, despite multiple molecular markers and several genetic metrics for each marker type to choose from. Genetic patterns differ between species, but the potential tradeoffs among genetic objectives for multiple species in conservation planning are currently understudied. We compared spatial conservation prioritizations derived from 2 metrics of genetic diversity (nucleotide and haplotype diversity) and 2 metrics of genetic isolation (private haplotypes and local genetic differentiation) in mitochondrial DNA of 5 marine species. We compared outcomes of conservation plans based only on habitat representation with plans based on genetic data and habitat representation. Fewer priority areas were selected for conservation plans based solely on habitat representation than on plans that included habitat and genetic data. All 4 genetic metrics selected approximately similar conservation-priority areas, which is likely a result of prioritizing genetic patterns across a genetically diverse array of species. Largely, our results suggest that multispecies genetic conservation objectives are vital to creating protected-area networks that appropriately preserve community-level evolutionary patterns.

Severe consequences of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity of an endangered Australian freshwater fish: A call for assisted gene flow

Genetic diversity underpins the ability of populations to persist and adapt to environmental changes. Substantial empirical data show that genetic diversity rapidly deteriorates in small and isolated populations due to genetic drift, leading to reduction in adaptive potential and fitness and increase in inbreeding. Assisted gene flow (e.g. via translocations) can reverse these trends, but lack of data on fitness loss and fear of impairing population "uniqueness" often prevents managers from acting. Here, we use population genetic and riverscape genetic analyses and simulations to explore the consequences of extensive habitat loss and fragmentation on population genetic diversity and future population trajectories of an endangered Australian freshwater fish, Macquarie perch Macquaria australasica. Using guidelines to assess the risk of outbreeding depression under admixture, we develop recommendations for population management, identify populations requiring genetic rescue and/or genetic restoration and potential donor sources. We found that most remaining populations of Macquarie perch have low genetic diversity, and effective population sizes below the threshold required to retain adaptive potential. Our simulations showed that under management inaction, smaller populations of Macquarie perch will face inbreeding depression within a few decades, but regular small-scale translocations will rapidly rescue populations from inbreeding depression and increase adaptive potential through genetic restoration. Despite the lack of data on fitness loss, based on our genetic data for Macquarie perch populations, simulations and empirical results from other systems, we recommend regular and frequent translocations among remnant populations within catchments. These translocations will emulate the effect of historical gene flow and improve population persistence through decrease in demographic and genetic stochasticity. Increasing population genetic connectivity within each catchment will help to maintain large effective population sizes and maximize species adaptive potential. The approach proposed here could be readily applicable to genetic management of other threatened species to improve their adaptive potential.

Genomic patterns in Acropora cervicornis show extensive population structure and variable genetic diversity

Threatened Caribbean coral communities can benefit from high‐resolution genetic data used to inform management and conservation action. We use Genotyping by Sequencing (GBS) to investigate genetic patterns in the threatened coral, Acropora cervicornis, across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) and the western Caribbean. Results show extensive population structure at regional scales and resolve previously unknown structure within the FRT. Different regions also exhibit up to threefold differences in genetic diversity (He), suggesting targeted management based on the goals and resources of each population is needed. Patterns of genetic diversity have a strong spatial component, and our results show Broward and the Lower Keys are among the most diverse populations in Florida. The genetic diversity of Caribbean staghorn coral is concentrated within populations and within individual reefs (AMOVA), highlighting the complex mosaic of population structure. This variance structure is similar over regional and local scales, which suggests that in situ nurseries are adequately capturing natural patterns of diversity, representing a resource that can replicate the average diversity of wild assemblages, serving to increase intraspecific diversity and potentially leading to improved biodiversity and ecosystem function. Results presented here can be translated into specific goals for the recovery of A. cervicornis, including active focus on low diversity areas, protection of high diversity and connectivity, and practical thresholds for responsible restoration.

Genomic diversity guides conservation strategies among rare terrestrial orchid species when taxonomy remains uncertain

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Species are often used as the unit for conservation, but may not be suitable for species complexes where taxa are difficult to distinguish. Under such circumstances, it may be more appropriate to consider species groups or populations as evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). A population genomic approach was employed to investigate the diversity within and among closely related species to create a more robust, lineage-specific conservation strategy for a nationally endangered terrestrial orchid and its relatives from south-eastern Australia.

METHODS

Four putative species were sampled from a total of 16 populations in the Victorian Volcanic Plain (VVP) bioregion and one population of a sub-alpine outgroup in south-eastern Australia. Morphological measurements were taken in situ along with leaf material for genotyping by sequencing (GBS) and microsatellite analyses.

KEY RESULTS

Species could not be differentiated using morphological measurements. Microsatellite and GBS markers confirmed the outgroup as distinct, but only GBS markers provided resolution of population genetic structure. The nationally endangered Diuris basaltica was indistinguishable from two related species ( D. chryseopsis and D. behrii ), while the state-protected D. gregaria showed genomic differentiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomic diversity identified among the four Diuris species suggests that conservation of this taxonomically complex group will be best served by considering them as one ESU rather than separately aligned with species as currently recognized. This approach will maximize evolutionary potential among all species during increased isolation and environmental change. The methods used here can be applied generally to conserve evolutionary processes for groups where taxonomic uncertainty hinders the use of species as conservation units.

Aligning science and policy to achieve evolutionarily enlightened conservation

There is increasing recognition among conservation scientists that long-term conservation outcomes could be improved through better integration of evolutionary theory into management practices. Despite concerns that the importance of key concepts emerging from evolutionary theory (i.e., evolutionary principles and processes) are not being recognized by managers, there has been little effort to determine the level of integration of evolutionary theory into conservation policy and practice. We assessed conservation policy at 3 scales (international, national, and provincial) on 3 continents to quantify the degree to which key evolutionary concepts, such as genetic diversity and gene flow, are being incorporated into conservation practice. We also evaluated the availability of clear guidance within the applied evolutionary biology literature as to how managers can change their management practices to achieve better conservation outcomes. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of maintaining genetic diversity, conservation policies provide little guidance about how this can be achieved in practice and other relevant evolutionary concepts, such as inbreeding depression, are mentioned rarely. In some cases the poor integration of evolutionary concepts into management reflects a lack of decision-support tools in the literature. Where these tools are available, such as risk-assessment frameworks, they are not being adopted by conservation policy makers, suggesting that the availability of a strong evidence base is not the only barrier to evolutionarily enlightened management. We believe there is a clear need for more engagement by evolutionary biologists with policy makers to develop practical guidelines that will help managers make changes to conservation practice. There is also an urgent need for more research to better understand the barriers to and opportunities for incorporating evolutionary theory into conservation practice.

Identifying appropriate protected areas for endangered fern species under climate change

The management of protected areas (PAs) is widely used in the conservation of endangered plant species under climate change. However, studies that have identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species are rare. To address this gap, we must develop a workflow to plan appropriate PAs for endangered fern species that will be further impacted by climate change. Here, we used endangered fern species in China as a case study, and we applied conservation planning software coupled with endangered fern species distribution data and distribution modeling to plan conservation areas with high priority protection needs under climate change. We identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species under climate change based on the IUCN protected area categories (from Ia to VI) and planned additional PAs for endangered fern species. The high priority regions for protecting the endangered fern species were distributed throughout southern China. With decreasing temperature seasonality, the priority ranking of all endangered fern species is projected to increase in existing PAs. Accordingly, we need to establish conservation areas with low climate vulnerability in existing PAs and expand the conservation areas for endangered fern species in the high priority conservation regions.

Trait variation in response to varying winter temperatures, diversity patterns and signatures of selection along the latitudinal distribution of the widespread grassland plant Arrhenatherum elatius

Across Europe, genetic diversity can be expected to decline toward the North because of stochastic and selective effects which may imply diminished phenotypic variation and less potential for future genetic adaptations to environmental change. Understanding such latitudinal patterns can aid provenance selection for breeding or assisted migration approaches. In an experiment simulating different winter temperatures, we assessed quantitative trait variation, genetic diversity, and differentiation for natural populations of the grass Arrhenatherum elatius originating from a large latitudinal gradient. In general, populations from the North grew smaller and had a lower flowering probability. Toward the North, the absolute plastic response to the different winter conditions as well as heritability for biomass production significantly declined. Genetic differentiation in plant height and probability of flowering were very strong and significantly higher than under neutral expectations derived from SNP data, suggesting adaptive differentiation. Differentiation in biomass production did not exceed but mirrored patterns for neutral genetic differentiation, suggesting that migration‐related processes caused the observed clinal trait variation. Our results demonstrate that genetic diversity and trait differentiation patterns for A. elatius along a latitudinal gradient are likely shaped by both local selection and genetic drift.

Revisiting Adaptive Potential, Population Size, and Conservation

Additive genetic variance (V_A) reflects the potential for evolutionary shifts and can be low for some traits or populations. High V_A is critical for the conservation of threatened species under selection to facilitate adaptation. Theory predicts tight associations between population size and V_A, but data from some experimental models, and managed and natural populations do not always support this prediction. However, V_A comparisons often have low statistical power, are undertaken in highly controlled environments distinct from natural habitats, and focus on traits with limited ecological relevance. Moreover, investigations of V_A typically fail to consider rare alleles, genetic load, or linkage disequilibrium, resulting in deleterious effects associated with favored alleles in small populations. Large population size remains essential for ensuring adaptation.

Purifying selection and genetic drift shaped Pleistocene evolution of the mitochondrial genome in an endangered Australian freshwater fish

Genetic variation in mitochondrial genes could underlie metabolic adaptations because mitochondrially encoded proteins are directly involved in a pathway supplying energy to metabolism. Macquarie perch from river basins exposed to different climates differ in size and growth rate, suggesting potential presence of adaptive metabolic differences. We used complete mitochondrial genome sequences to build a phylogeny, estimate lineage divergence times and identify signatures of purifying and positive selection acting on mitochondrial genes for 25 Macquarie perch from three basins: Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Hawkesbury-Nepean Basin (HNB) and Shoalhaven Basin (SB). Phylogenetic analysis resolved basin-level clades, supporting incipient speciation previously inferred from differentiation in allozymes, microsatellites and mitochondrial control region. The estimated time of lineage divergence suggested an early- to mid-Pleistocene split between SB and the common ancestor of HNB+MDB, followed by mid-to-late Pleistocene splitting between HNB and MDB. These divergence estimates are more recent than previous ones. Our analyses suggested that evolutionary drivers differed between inland MDB and coastal HNB. In the cooler and more climatically variable MDB, mitogenomes evolved under strong purifying selection, whereas in the warmer and more climatically stable HNB, purifying selection was relaxed. Evidence for relaxed selection in the HNB includes elevated transfer RNA and 16S ribosomal RNA polymorphism, presence of potentially mildly deleterious mutations and a codon (ATP6113) displaying signatures of positive selection (ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates (dN/dS) >1, radical change of an amino-acid property and phylogenetic conservation across the Percichthyidae). In addition, the difference could be because of stronger genetic drift in the smaller and historically more subdivided HNB with low per-population effective population sizes.

Spatial conservation prioritization of biodiversity spanning the evolutionary continuum

Accounting for evolutionary relationships between and within species is important for biodiversity conservation planning, but is rarely considered in practice. Here we introduce a novel framework to identify priority conservation areas accounting for phylogenetic and intraspecific diversity, integrating concepts from phylogeny, phylogeography, spatial statistics and spatial conservation prioritization. The framework allows planners to incorporate and combine different levels of evolutionary diversity and can be applied to any taxonomic group and to any region in the world. We illustrate our approach using amphibian and reptile species occurring in a biodiversity hotspot region, the Iberian Peninsula. We found that explicitly incorporating phylogenetic and intraspecific diversity in systematic conservation planning provides advantages in terms of maximizing overall biodiversity representation while enhancing its persistence and evolutionary potential. Our results emphasize the need to account for the evolutionary continuum in order to efficiently implement biodiversity conservation planning decisions.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic

Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate - for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions - might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.

The imperiled fish fauna in the Nicaragua Canal zone

Large-scale infrastructure projects commonly have large effects on the environment. The planned construction of the Nicaragua Canal will irreversibly alter the aquatic environment of Nicaragua in many ways. Two distinct drainage basins (San Juan and Punta Gorda) will be connected and numerous ecosystems will be altered. Considering the project's far-reaching environmental effects, too few studies on biodiversity have been performed to date. This limits provision of robust environmental impact assessments. We explored the geographic distribution of taxonomic and genetic diversity of freshwater fish species (Poecilia spp., Amatitlania siquia, Hypsophrys nematopus, Brycon guatemalensis, and Roeboides bouchellei) across the Nicaragua Canal zone. We collected population samples in affected areas (San Juan, Punta Gorda, and Escondido drainage basins), investigated species composition of 2 drainage basins and performed genetic analyses (genetic diversity, analysis of molecular variance) based on mitochondrial cytb. Freshwater fish faunas differed substantially between drainage basins (Jaccard similarity = 0.33). Most populations from distinct drainage basins were genetically differentiated. Removing the geographic barrier between these basins will promote biotic homogenization and the loss of unique genetic diversity. We found species in areas where they were not known to exist, including an undescribed, highly distinct clade of live bearing fish (Poecilia). Our results indicate that the Nicaragua Canal likely will have strong impacts on Nicaragua's freshwater biodiversity. However, knowledge about the extent of these impacts is lacking, which highlights the need for more thorough investigations before the environment is altered irreversibly.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change.