PaPI: pseudo amino acid composition to score human protein-coding variants

Background

High throughput sequencing technologies are able to identify the whole genomic variation of an individual. Gene-targeted and whole-exome experiments are mainly focused on coding sequence variants related to a single or multiple nucleotides. The analysis of the biological significance of this multitude of genomic variant is challenging and computational demanding.

Results

We present PaPI, a new machine-learning approach to classify and score human coding variants by estimating the probability to damage their protein-related function. The novelty of this approach consists in using pseudo amino acid composition through which wild and mutated protein sequences are represented in a discrete model. A machine learning classifier has been trained on a set of known deleterious and benign coding variants with the aim to score unobserved variants by taking into account hidden sequence patterns in human genome potentially leading to diseases. We show how the combination of amphiphilic pseudo amino acid composition, evolutionary conservation and homologous proteins based methods outperforms several prediction algorithms and it is also able to score complex variants such as deletions, insertions and indels.

Conclusions

This paper describes a machine-learning approach to predict the deleteriousness of human coding variants. A freely available web application (http://papi.unipv.it) has been developed with the presented method, able to score up to thousands variants in a single run.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-015-0554-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Error-prone pcr-based mutagenesis strategy for rapidly generating high-yield influenza vaccine candidates

Vaccination is the primary strategy for the prevention and control of influenza outbreaks. However, the manufacture of influenza vaccine requires a high-yield seed strain, and the conventional methods for generating such strains are time consuming. In this study, we developed a novel method to rapidly generate high-yield candidate vaccine strains by integrating error-prone PCR, site-directed mutagenesis strategies, and reverse genetics. We used this method to generate seed strains for the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and produced six high-yield candidate strains. We used a mouse model to assess the efficacy of two of the six candidate strains as a vaccine seed virus: both strains provided complete protection in mice against lethal challenge, thus validating our method. Results confirmed that the efficacy of these candidate vaccine seed strains was not affected by the yield-optimization procedure.

H1N1 viral proteome peptide microarray predicts individuals at risk for H1N1 infection and segregates infection versus Pandemrix(®) vaccination

A high content peptide microarray containing the entire influenza A virus [A/California/08/2009(H1N1)] proteome and haemagglutinin proteins from 12 other influenza A subtypes, including the haemagglutinin from the [A/South Carolina/1/1918(H1N1)] strain, was used to gauge serum IgG epitope signatures before and after Pandemrix® vaccination or H1N1 infection in a Swedish cohort during the pandemic influenza season 2009. A very narrow pattern of pandemic flu-specific IgG epitope recognition was observed in the serum from individuals who later contracted H1N1 infection. Moreover, the pandemic influenza infection generated IgG reactivity to two adjacent epitopes of the neuraminidase protein. The differential serum IgG recognition was focused on haemagglutinin 1 (H1) and restricted to classical antigenic sites (Cb) in both the vaccinated controls and individuals with flu infections. We further identified a novel epitope VEPGDKITFEATGNL on the Ca antigenic site (251–265) of the pandemic flu haemagglutinin, which was exclusively recognized in serum from individuals with previous vaccinations and never in serum from individuals with H1N1 infection (confirmed by RNA PCR analysis from nasal swabs). This epitope was mapped to the receptor-binding domain of the influenza haemagglutinin and could serve as a correlate of immune protection in the context of pandemic flu. The study shows that unbiased epitope mapping using peptide microarray technology leads to the identification of biologically and clinically relevant target structures. Most significantly an H1N1 infection induced a different footprint of IgG epitope recognition patterns compared with the pandemic H1N1 vaccine.

Vaccination-challenge studies with a Port Chalmers/73 (H3N2)-based swine influenza virus vaccine: Reflections on vaccine strain updates and on the vaccine potency test

The human A/Port Chalmers/1/73 (H3N2) influenza virus strain, the supposed ancestor of European H3N2 swine influenza viruses (SIVs), was used in most commercial SIV vaccines in Europe until recently. If manufacturers want to update vaccine strains, they have to perform laborious intratracheal (IT) challenge experiments and demonstrate reduced virus titres in the lungs of vaccinated pigs. We aimed to examine (a) the ability of a Port Chalmers/73-based commercial vaccine to induce cross-protection against a contemporary European H3N2 SIV and serologic cross-reaction against H3N2 SIVs from Europe and North America and (b) the validity of intranasal (IN) challenge and virus titrations of nasal swabs as alternatives for IT challenge and titrations of lung tissue in vaccine potency tests. Pigs were vaccinated with Suvaxyn Flu(®) and challenged by the IT or IN route with sw/Gent/172/08. Post-vaccination sera were examined in haemagglutination-inhibition assays against vaccine and challenge strains and additional H3N2 SIVs from Europe and North America, including an H3N2 variant virus. Tissues of the respiratory tract and nasal swabs were collected 3 days post challenge (DPCh) and from 0-7 DPCh, respectively, and examined by virus titration. Two vaccinations consistently induced cross-reactive antibodies against European H3N2 SIVs from 1998-2012, but minimal or undetectable antibody titres against North American viruses. Challenge virus titres in the lungs, trachea and nasal mucosa of the vaccinated pigs were significantly reduced after both IT and IN challenge. Yet the reduction of virus titres and nasal shedding was greater after IT challenge. The Port Chalmers/73-based vaccine still offered protection against a European H3N2 SIV isolated 35 years later and with only 86.9% amino acid homology in its HA1, but it is unlikely to protect against H3N2 SIVs that are endemic in North America. We use our data to reflect on vaccine strain updates and on the vaccine potency test.

Integrated Sentinel Surveillance Linking Genetic, Antigenic, and Epidemiologic Monitoring of Influenza Vaccine-Virus Relatedness and Effectiveness During the 2013-2014 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network links genetic, antigenic, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) measures in an integrated platform of influenza monitoring, described here for the 2013-2014 influenza season of resurgent A(H1N1)pdm09 and late-season type B activity.

METHODS

VE was estimated as [1 - odds ratio] × 100% and compared vaccination status between individuals who tested positive (cases) and those who tested negative (controls) for influenza virus. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by genomic sequence analysis and hemagglutination inhibition assays.

RESULTS

Analyses included 1037 controls (of whom 33% were vaccinated) and 663 cases (of whom 14% were vaccinated). A total of 415 cases tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, 15 tested positive for A(H3N2) virus, 191 tested positive for B/Yamagata-lineage virus, 6 tested positive for B/Victoria-lineage virus, and 36 tested positive for viruses of unknown subtype or lineage. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B, distinguished by a K163Q substitution, but remained antigenically similar to the A/California/07/2009-like vaccine strain, with an adjusted VE of 71% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58%-80%). Most B/Yamagata-lineage viruses (83%) clustered phylogenetically with the prior (ie, 2012-2013) season's B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like clade 3 vaccine strain, while only 17% clustered with the current (ie, 2013-2014) season's B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like clade 2 vaccine strain. The adjusted VE for B/Yamagata-lineage virus was 73% (95% CI, 57%-84%), with a lower VE obtained after partial calendar-time adjustment for clade-mismatched B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like virus (VE, 63%; 95% CI, 41%-77%), compared with that for clade-matched B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like virus (VE, 88%; 95% CI, 48%-97%). No A(H3N2) viruses clustered with the A/Texas/50/2012-like clade 3C.1 vaccine strain, and more than half were antigenically mismatched, but sparse data did not support VE estimation.

CONCLUSIONS

VE corresponded with antigenically conserved A(H1N1)pdm09 and lineage-matched B/Yamagata viruses with clade-level variation. Surveillance linking genotypic, phenotypic, and epidemiologic measures of vaccine-virus relatedness and effectiveness could better inform predictions of vaccine performance and reformulation.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

Two distinct DNA binding modes guide dual roles of a CRISPR-Cas protein complex

Small RNA-guided protein complexes play an essential role in CRISPR-mediated immunity in prokaryotes. While these complexes initiate interference by flagging cognate invader DNA for destruction, recent evidence has implicated their involvement in new CRISPR memory formation, called priming, against mutated invader sequences. The mechanism by which the target recognition complex mediates these disparate responses-interference and priming-remains poorly understood. Using single-molecule FRET, we visualize how bona fide and mutated targets are differentially probed by E. coli Cascade. We observe that the recognition of bona fide targets is an ordered process that is tightly controlled for high fidelity. Mutated targets are recognized with low fidelity, which is featured by short-lived and PAM- and seed-independent binding by any segment of the crRNA. These dual roles of Cascade in immunity with distinct fidelities underpin CRISPR-Cas robustness, allowing for efficient degradation of bona fide targets and priming of mutated DNA targets.

Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data

The immunity of a host population against specific influenza A strains can influence a number of important biological processes, from the emergence of new virus strains to the effectiveness of vaccination programmes. However, the development of an individual's long-lived antibody response to influenza A over the course of a lifetime remains poorly understood. Accurately describing this immunological process requires a fundamental understanding of how the mechanisms of boosting and cross-reactivity respond to repeated infections. Establishing the contribution of such mechanisms to antibody titres remains challenging because the aggregate effect of immune responses over a lifetime are rarely observed directly. To uncover the aggregate effect of multiple influenza infections, we developed a mechanistic model capturing both past infections and subsequent antibody responses. We estimated parameters of the model using cross-sectional antibody titres to nine different strains spanning 40 years of circulation of influenza A(H3N2) in southern China. We found that "antigenic seniority" and quickly decaying cross-reactivity were important components of the immune response, suggesting that the order in which individuals were infected with influenza strains shaped observed neutralisation titres to a particular virus. We also obtained estimates of the frequency and age distribution of influenza infection, which indicate that although infections became less frequent as individuals progressed through childhood and young adulthood, they occurred at similar rates for individuals above age 30 y. By establishing what are likely to be important mechanisms driving epochal trends in population immunity, we also identified key directions for future studies. In particular, our results highlight the need for longitudinal samples that are tested against multiple historical strains. This could lead to a better understanding of how, over the course of a lifetime, fast, transient antibody dynamics combine with the longer-term immune responses considered here.

Optimization of an enzyme-linked lectin assay suitable for rapid antigenic characterization of the neuraminidase of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses

Antibodies to neuraminidase (NA), the second most abundant surface protein of the influenza virus, contribute to protection against influenza virus infection. Although traditional and miniaturized thiobarbituric acid (TBA) neuraminidase inhibition (NI) assays have been successfully used to characterize the antigenic properties of NA, these methods are cumbersome and not easily amendable to rapid screening. An additional difficulty of the NI assay is the interference by hemagglutinin (HA)-specific antibodies. To prevent interference of HA-specific antibodies, most NI assays are performed with recombinant viruses containing a mismatched HA. However, generation of these viruses is time consuming and unsuitable for large-scale surveillance. The feasibility of using the recently developed enzyme-linked lectin assay (ELLA) to evaluate the antigenic relatedness of NA of wild type A(H3N2) viruses was assessed. Rather than using recombinant viruses, wild type A(H3N2) viruses were used as antigen with ferret sera elicited against recombinant viruses with a mismatched HA. In this study, details of the critical steps that are needed to modify and optimize the NI ELLA in a format that is reproducible, highly sensitive, and useful for influenza virus surveillance to monitor antigenic drift of NA are provided.

Challenges in antigenic characterization of circulating influenza A(H3N2) viruses during the 2011-2012 influenza season: an ongoing problem?

Genetic and antigenic characterization of 37 representative influenza A(H3N2) virus strains isolated in Greece during the 2011-2012 winter season was performed to evaluate matching of the viruses with the seasonal influenza vaccine strain A/Perth/16/2009. Hemagglutinin gene sequence analysis revealed that all Greek strains clustered within the Victoria/208 genetic clade. Furthermore, substitutions in the antigenic and glycosylation sites suggested potential antigenic drift. Our hemagglutination inhibition (HI) analysis showed that the Greek viruses were Perth/16-like; however, these viruses were characterized as Victoria/208-like when tested at the United Kingdom WHO Collaborating Centre (CC) with HI assays performed in the presence of oseltamivir, a finding consistent with the genetic characterization data. Variability in the HI test performance experienced by other European laboratories indicated that antigenic analysis of the A(H3N2) virus has limitations and, until its standardization, national influenza reference laboratories should include genetic characterization results for selection of representative viruses for detailed antigenic analysis by the WHO CCs.

Characterization of co-circulating swine influenza A viruses in North America and the identification of a novel H1 genetic clade with antigenic significance

Multiple genetically and antigenically distinct hemagglutinin genes of the H1 and H3 influenza A virus (IAV) subtypes co-circulate in North American swine. This diversity has evolved by repeated transmission of IAVs from humans to swine and subsequent antigenic drift in swine. To understand the evolutionary dynamics of these diverse HA lineages in North American swine, we undertook a phylogenetic analysis of 1576 H1 and 607 H3 HA gene segments, as well as 834 N1 and 1293 N2 NA gene segments, and 2126 M gene segments. These data revealed yearly co-circulation of H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2 viruses, with three HA clades representing the majority of the HA sequences: of the H1 viruses, 42% were classified as H1δ1 and 40.6% were classified as H1γ; and of the H3 viruses 53% were classified as cluster IV-A H3N2. We detected a genetically distinct minor clade consisting of 37 H1 viruses isolated between 2003 and 2013, which we classified as H1γ-2. We estimated that this clade circulated in swine since approximately 1995, but it was not detected in swine until 2003. Though this clade only represents 1.07% of swine H1 sequences reported over the past 10 years, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays demonstrated that representatives of this clade of viruses are antigenically distinct, and, when measured using antigenic cartography, were as many as 7 antigenic units from other H1γ viruses. Therefore vaccines against the contemporary H1γ viruses are not likely to cross-protect against γ-2 viruses. The long-term circulation of these γ-2 viruses suggests that minor populations of viruses may be underreported in the national dataset given the long branch lengths and gaps in detections. The identification of these γ-2 viruses demonstrates the need for robust surveillance to capture the full diversity IAVs in swine in the USA and the importance of antigenic drift in the diversification and emergence of new antigenic variants in swine, which complicates vaccine design.

Reduced cross-protection against influenza A(H3N2) subgroup 3C.2a and 3C.3a viruses among Finnish healthcare workers vaccinated with 2013/14 seasonal influenza vaccine

Virus strains in the seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2014/15 northern hemisphere season remained unchanged from those in 2013/14. During spring 2014, drifted influenza A(H3N2) viruses, subgroup 3C.3a, were detected in Finland; another subgroup, 3C.2a, emerged in the 2014/15 season and has predominated. We monitored antibody responses against vaccine and epidemic strains (2013/14 and 2014/15) among Finnish healthcare workers after influenza vaccination with the 2013/14 vaccine. The data suggest reduced cross-protection towards both subgroups of drifted A(H3N2) viruses.

Interim estimates of 2014/15 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) from Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network, January 2015

Binary file ES_Abstracts_Final_ECDC.txt matches

Antibody titer has positive predictive value for vaccine protection against challenge with natural antigenic-drift variants of H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses from Indonesia

Vaccines are used in integrated control strategies to protect poultry against H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI). H5N1 HPAI was first reported in Indonesia in 2003, and vaccination was initiated in 2004, but reports of vaccine failures began to emerge in mid-2005. This study investigated the role of Indonesian licensed vaccines, specific vaccine seed strains, and emerging variant field viruses as causes of vaccine failures. Eleven of 14 licensed vaccines contained the manufacturer's listed vaccine seed strains, but 3 vaccines contained a seed strain different from that listed on the label. Vaccines containing A/turkey/Wisconsin/1968 (WI/68), A/chicken/Mexico/28159-232/1994 (Mex/94), and A/turkey/England/N28/1973 seed strains had high serological potency in chickens (geometric mean hemagglutination inhibition [HI] titers, ≥ 1:169), but vaccines containing strain A/chicken/Guangdong/1/1996 generated by reverse genetics (rg; rgGD/96), A/chicken/Legok/2003 (Legok/03), A/chicken/Vietnam/C57/2004 generated by rg (rgVN/04), or A/chicken/Legok/2003 generated by rg (rgLegok/03) had lower serological potency (geometric mean HI titers, ≤ 1:95). In challenge studies, chickens immunized with any of the H5 avian influenza vaccines were protected against A/chicken/West Java/SMI-HAMD/2006 (SMI-HAMD/06) and were partially protected against A/chicken/Papua/TA5/2006 (Papua/06) but were not protected against A/chicken/West Java/PWT-WIJ/2006 (PWT/06). Experimental inactivated vaccines made with PWT/06 HPAI virus or rg-generated PWT/06 low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) virus seed strains protected chickens from lethal challenge, as did a combination of a commercially available live fowl poxvirus vaccine expressing the H5 influenza virus gene and inactivated Legok/03 vaccine. These studies indicate that antigenic variants did emerge in Indonesia following widespread H5 avian influenza vaccine usage, and efficacious inactivated vaccines can be developed using antigenic variant wild-type viruses or rg-generated LPAI virus seed strains containing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of wild-type viruses.

IMPORTANCE

H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus has become endemic in Indonesian poultry, and such poultry are the source of virus for birds and mammals, including humans. Vaccination has become a part of the poultry control strategy, but vaccine failures have occurred in the field. This study identified possible causes of vaccine failure, which included the use of an unlicensed virus seed strain and induction of low levels of protective antibody because of an insufficient quantity of vaccine antigen. However, the most important cause of vaccine failure was the appearance of drift variant field viruses that partially or completely overcame commercial vaccine-induced immunity. Furthermore, experimental vaccines using inactivated wild-type virus or reverse genetics-generated vaccines containing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of wild-type drift variant field viruses were protective. These studies indicate the need for surveillance to identify drift variant viruses in the field and update licensed vaccines when such variants appear.

Identification of amino acid substitutions supporting antigenic change of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses

The majority of currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are antigenically similar to the virus that caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. However, antigenic variants are expected to emerge as population immunity increases. Amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein can result in escape from neutralizing antibodies, affect viral fitness, and change receptor preference. In this study, we constructed mutants with substitutions in the hemagglutinin of A/Netherlands/602/09 in an attenuated backbone to explore amino acid changes that may contribute to emergence of antigenic variants in the human population. Our analysis revealed that single substitutions affecting the loop that consists of amino acid positions 151 to 159 located adjacent to the receptor binding site caused escape from ferret and human antibodies elicited after primary A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. The majority of these substitutions resulted in similar or increased replication efficiency in vitro compared to that of the virus carrying the wild-type hemagglutinin and did not result in a change of receptor preference. However, none of the substitutions was sufficient for escape from the antibodies in sera from individuals that experienced both seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1) virus infections. These results suggest that antibodies directed against epitopes on seasonal A(H1N1) viruses contribute to neutralization of A(H1N1)pdm09 antigenic variants, thereby limiting the number of possible substitutions that could lead to escape from population immunity.

IMPORTANCE

Influenza A viruses can cause significant morbidity and mortality in humans. Amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein can result in escape from antibody-mediated neutralization. This allows the virus to reinfect individuals that have acquired immunity to previously circulating strains through infection or vaccination. To date, the vast majority of A(H1N1)pdm09 strains remain antigenically similar to the virus that caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. However, antigenic variants are expected to emerge as a result of increasing population immunity. We show that single amino acid substitutions near the receptor binding site were sufficient to escape from antibodies specific for A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses but not from antibodies elicited in response to infections with seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. This study identified substitutions in A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses that support escape from population immunity but also suggested that the number of potential escape variants is limited by previous exposure to seasonal A(H1N1) viruses.

A novel humanized antibody neutralizes H5N1 influenza virus via two different mechanisms

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 continues to be a severe threat to public health, as well as the poultry industry, because of its high lethality and antigenic drift rate. Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) can serve as a useful tool for preventing, treating, and detecting H5N1. In the present study, humanized H5 antibody 8A8 was developed from a murine H5 MAb. Both the humanized and mouse MAbs presented positive activity in hemagglutination inhibition (HI), virus neutralization, and immunofluorescence assays against a wide range of H5N1 strains. Interestingly, both human and murine 8A8 antibodies were able to detect H5 in Western blot assays under reducing conditions. Further, by sequencing of escape mutants, the conformational epitope of 8A8 was found to be located within the receptor binding domain (RBD) of H5. The linear epitope of 8A8 was identified by Western blotting of overlapping fragments and substitution mutant forms of HA1. Reverse genetic H5N1 strains with individual mutations in either the conformational or the linear epitope were generated and characterized in a series of assays, including HI, postattachment, and cell-cell fusion inhibition assays. The results indicate that for 8A8, virus neutralization mediated by RBD blocking relies on the conformational epitope while binding to the linear epitope contributes to the neutralization by inhibiting membrane fusion. Taken together, the results of this study show that a novel humanized H5 MAb binds to two types of epitopes on HA, leading to virus neutralization via two mechanisms.

IMPORTANCE

Recurrence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in humans and poultry continues to be a serious public health concern. Preventive and therapeutic measures against influenza A viruses have received much interest in the context of global efforts to combat the current and future pandemics. Passive immune therapy is considered to be the most effective and economically prudent preventive strategy against influenza virus besides vaccination. It is important to develop a humanized neutralizing monoclonal antibody (MAb) against all of the clades of H5N1. For the first time, we report in this study that a novel humanized H5 MAb binds to two types of epitopes on HA, leading to virus neutralization via two mechanisms. These findings further deepen our understanding of influenza virus neutralization.

The contrasting phylodynamics of human influenza B viruses

A complex interplay of viral, host, and ecological factors shapes the spatio-temporal incidence and evolution of human influenza viruses. Although considerable attention has been paid to influenza A viruses, a lack of equivalent data means that an integrated evolutionary and epidemiological framework has until now not been available for influenza B viruses, despite their significant disease burden. Through the analysis of over 900 full genomes from an epidemiological collection of more than 26,000 strains from Australia and New Zealand, we reveal fundamental differences in the phylodynamics of the two co-circulating lineages of influenza B virus (Victoria and Yamagata), showing that their individual dynamics are determined by a complex relationship between virus transmission, age of infection, and receptor binding preference. In sum, this work identifies new factors that are important determinants of influenza B evolution and epidemiology.

Simultaneously estimating evolutionary history and repeated traits phylogenetic signal: applications to viral and host phenotypic evolution

Phylogenetic signal quantifies the degree to which resemblance in continuously-valued traits reflects phylogenetic relatedness. Measures of phylogenetic signal are widely used in ecological and evolutionary research, and are recently gaining traction in viral evolutionary studies. Standard estimators of phylogenetic signal frequently condition on data summary statistics of the repeated trait observations and fixed phylogenetics trees, resulting in information loss and potential bias. To incorporate the observation process and phylogenetic uncertainty in a model-based approach, we develop a novel Bayesian inference method to simultaneously estimate the evolutionary history and phylogenetic signal from molecular sequence data and repeated multivariate traits. Our approach builds upon a phylogenetic diffusion framework that model continuous trait evolution as a Brownian motion process and incorporates Pagel's λ transformation parameter to estimate dependence among traits. We provide a computationally efficient inference implementation in the BEAST software package. We evaluate the synthetic performance of the Bayesian estimator of phylogenetic signal against standard estimators, and demonstrate the use of our coherent framework to address several virus-host evolutionary questions, including virulence heritability for HIV, antigenic evolution in influenza and HIV, and Drosophila sensitivity to sigma virus infection. Finally, we discuss model extensions that will make useful contributions to our flexible framework for simultaneously studying sequence and trait evolution.

Time dependence of evolutionary metrics during the 2009 pandemic influenza virus outbreak

With the expansion of DNA sequencing technology, quantifying evolution in emerging viral outbreaks has become an important tool for scientists and public health officials. Although it is known that the degree of sequence divergence significantly affects the calculation of evolutionary metrics in viral outbreaks, the extent and duration of this effect during an actual outbreak remains unclear. We have analyzed how limited divergence time during an early viral outbreak affects the accuracy of molecular evolutionary metrics. Using sequence data from the first 25 months of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) outbreak, we calculated each of three different standard evolutionary metrics-molecular clock rate (i.e., evolutionary rate), whole gene dN/dS, and site-wise dN/dS-for hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, using increasingly longer time windows, from 1 month to 25 months. For the molecular clock rate, we found that at least three to four months of temporal divergence from the start of sampling was required to make precise estimates that also agreed with long-term values. For whole gene dN/dS, we found that at least two months of data were required to generate precise estimates, but six to nine months were required for estimates to approach their long term values. For site-wise dN/dS estimates, we found that at least six months of sampling divergence was required before the majority of sites had at least one mutation and were thus evolutionarily informative. Furthermore, eight months of sampling divergence was required before the site-wise estimates appropriately reflected the distribution of values expected from known protein-structure-based evolutionary pressure in influenza. In summary, we found that evolutionary metrics calculated from gene sequence data in early outbreaks should be expected to deviate from their long-term estimates for at least several months after the initial emergence and sequencing of the virus.

Guidance for practitioners on the use of antiviral drugs to control influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Canada, 2014-2015 season

The AMMI Canada Guidelines document 'The use of antiviral drugs for influenza: A foundation document for practitioners', published in the Autumn 2013 issue of the Journal, outlines the recommendations for the use of antiviral drugs to treat influenza. This article, which represents the first of two updates to these guidelines published in the current issue of the Journal, aims to inform health care professionals of the increased risk for influenza in long-term care facilities due to a documented mismatch between the components chosen for this season's vaccine and currently circulating influenza strains. Adjusted recommendations for the use of antiviral drugs for influenza in long-term care facilities for this season are provided.

Influenza gain-of-function experiments: their role in vaccine virus recommendation and pandemic preparedness

In recent years, controversy has arisen regarding the risks and benefits of certain types of gain-of-function (GOF) studies involving avian influenza viruses. In this article, we provide specific examples of how different types of data, including information garnered from GOF studies, have helped to shape the influenza vaccine production process-from selection of candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) to the manufacture and stockpiling of safe, high-yield prepandemic vaccines for the global community. The article is not written to support a specific pro- or anti-GOF stance but rather to inform the scientific community about factors involved in vaccine virus selection and the preparation of prepandemic influenza vaccines and the impact that some GOF information has had on this process.

Antibody landscapes after influenza virus infection or vaccination

We introduce the antibody landscape, a method for the quantitative analysis of antibody-mediated immunity to antigenically variable pathogens, achieved by accounting for antigenic variation among pathogen strains. We generated antibody landscapes to study immune profiles covering 43 years of influenza A/H3N2 virus evolution for 69 individuals monitored for infection over 6 years and for 225 individuals pre- and postvaccination. Upon infection and vaccination, titers increased broadly, including previously encountered viruses far beyond the extent of cross-reactivity observed after a primary infection. We explored implications for vaccination and found that the use of an antigenically advanced virus had the dual benefit of inducing antibodies against both advanced and previous antigenic clusters. These results indicate that preemptive vaccine updates may improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously exposed individuals.

Measles virus genetic evolution throughout an imported epidemic outbreak in a highly vaccinated population

Measles virus circulates endemically in African and Asian large urban populations, causing outbreaks worldwide in populations with up-to-95% immune protection. We studied the natural genetic variability of genotype B3.1 in a population with 95% vaccine coverage throughout an imported six month measles outbreak. From first pass viral isolates of 47 patients we performed direct sequencing of genomic cDNA. Whilst no variation from index case sequence occurred in the Nucleocapsid gene hyper-variable carboxy end, in the Hemagglutinin gene, main target for neutralizing antibodies, we observed gradual nucleotide divergence from index case along the outbreak (0% to 0.380%, average 0.138%) with the emergence of transient and persistent non-synonymous and synonymous mutations. Little or no variation was observed between the index and last outbreak cases in Phosphoprotein, Nucleocapsid, Matrix and Fusion genes. Most of the H non-synonymous mutations were mapped on the protein surface near antigenic and receptors binding sites. We estimated a MV-Hemagglutinin nucleotide substitution rate of 7.28 × 10-6 substitutions/site/day by a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The dN/dS analysis did not suggest significant immune or other selective pressures on the H gene during the outbreak. These results emphasize the usefulness of MV-H sequence analysis in measles epidemiological surveillance and elimination programs, and in detection of potentially emergence of measles virus neutralization-resistant mutants.

Can we read the future from a tree?

A new method uses genealogies based on sequence data to predict short-term evolutionary patterns.

Predicting evolution from the shape of genealogical trees

Given a sample of genome sequences from an asexual population, can one predict its evolutionary future? Here we demonstrate that the branching patterns of reconstructed genealogical trees contains information about the relative fitness of the sampled sequences and that this information can be used to predict successful strains. Our approach is based on the assumption that evolution proceeds by accumulation of small effect mutations, does not require species specific input and can be applied to any asexual population under persistent selection pressure. We demonstrate its performance using historical data on seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus. We predict the progenitor lineage of the upcoming influenza season with near optimal performance in 30% of cases and make informative predictions in 16 out of 19 years. Beyond providing a tool for prediction, our ability to make informative predictions implies persistent fitness variation among circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03568.001

When viruses multiply, they copy their genetic material to make clones of themselves. However, the genetic material in the clone is often slightly different from the genetic material in the original virus. These mutations can be caused by mistakes made during copying or by radiation or chemicals. Further mutations arise when the clones multiply, which means that, after many generations, there will be quite large differences in the genetic material carried by many members of the population. Most mutations have little or no effect on the ‘fitness’ of an individual - that is, on its ability to survive and multiply - but some mutations do have an influence.

Some viruses, like seasonal influenza (flu) viruses, can mutate so rapidly that the most common strains change from year to year. This is why new flu vaccines are needed every year. To date most attempts to predict the evolution of seasonal flu viruses have focused on identifying specific features within the genetic sequences that might indicate fitness. However, such approaches require lots of information about the viruses, and this information is often not available.

To address this problem, Neher, Russell and Shraiman have developed a more general method to predict fitness from virus genetic sequences. First, a ‘family tree’ for a virus population - which shows how each strain of the virus is related to other strains - was constructed by comparing the genetic sequences.

The next step was based on the observation that as long as differences in fitness arise from the accumulation of multiple mutations, the branching structure of this family tree will bear a visible imprint of the natural selection process as it unfolds. Using this insight and methods borrowed from statistical physics, Neher et al. then analyzed the shape and branching pattern of the tree to work out the fitness of the different strains relative to each other.

Neher et al. tested the method using historical influenza A virus data. In 16 of the 19 years studied, the family tree approach made meaningful predictions about which viruses were most likely to give rise to future epidemics. The ability to predict influenza virus evolution from tree shape alone suggests that influenza virus evolution may be more predictable than previously expected.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03568.002

Potential antigenic explanation for atypical H1N1 infections among middle-aged adults during the 2013-2014 influenza season

Influenza viruses typically cause the most severe disease in children and elderly individuals. However, H1N1 viruses disproportionately affected middle-aged adults during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Although H1N1 viruses recently acquired several mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein, classic serological tests used by surveillance laboratories indicate that these mutations do not change antigenic properties of the virus. Here, we show that one of these mutations is located in a region of HA targeted by antibodies elicited in many middle-aged adults. We find that over 42% of individuals born between 1965 and 1979 possess antibodies that recognize this region of HA. Our findings offer a possible antigenic explanation of why middle-aged adults were highly susceptible to H1N1 viruses during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Our data further suggest that a drifted H1N1 strain should be included in future influenza vaccines to potentially reduce morbidity and mortality in this age group.

Sequence-based antigenic change prediction by a sparse learning method incorporating co-evolutionary information

Rapid identification of influenza antigenic variants will be critical in selecting optimal vaccine candidates and thus a key to developing an effective vaccination program. Recent studies suggest that multiple simultaneous mutations at antigenic sites accumulatively enhance antigenic drift of influenza A viruses. However, pre-existing methods on antigenic variant identification are based on analyses from individual sites. Because the impacts of these co-evolved sites on influenza antigenicity may not be additive, it will be critical to quantify the impact of not only those single mutations but also multiple simultaneous mutations or co-evolved sites. Here, we developed and applied a computational method, AntigenCO, to identify and quantify both single and co-evolutionary sites driving the historical antigenic drifts. AntigenCO achieved an accuracy of up to 90.05% for antigenic variant prediction, significantly outperforming methods based on single sites. AntigenCO can be useful in antigenic variant identification in influenza surveillance.

Novel G3/DT adjuvant promotes the induction of protective T cells responses after vaccination with a seasonal trivalent inactivated split-virion influenza vaccine

Vaccines used against seasonal influenza are poorly effective against influenza A viruses of novel subtypes that may have pandemic potential. Furthermore, pre(pandemic) influenza vaccines are poorly immunogenic, which can be overcome by the use of adjuvants. A limited number of adjuvants has been approved for use in humans, however there is a need for alternative safe and effective adjuvants that can enhance the immunogenicity of influenza vaccines and that promote the induction of broad-protective T cell responses. Here we evaluated a novel nanoparticle, G3, as an adjuvant for a seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in a mouse model. The G3 adjuvant was formulated with or without steviol glycosides (DT, for diterpenoid). The use of both formulations enhanced the virus-specific antibody response to all three vaccine strains considerably. The adjuvants were well tolerated without any signs of discomfort. To assess the protective potential of the vaccine-induced immune responses, an antigenically distinct influenza virus strain, A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (A/PR/8/34), was used for challenge infection. The vaccine-induced antibodies did not cross-react with strain A/PR/8/34 in HI and VN assays. However, mice immunized with the G3/DT-adjuvanted vaccine were partially protected against A/PR/8/34 infection, which correlated with the induction of anamnestic virus-specific CD8(+) T cell responses that were not observed with the use of G3 without DT. Both formulations induced maturation of human dendritic cells and promoted antigen presentation to a similar extent. In conclusion, G3/DT is a promising adjuvant formulation that not only potentiates the antibody response induced by influenza vaccines, but also induces T cell immunity which could afford broader protection against antigenically distinct influenza viruses.

Challenges of selecting seasonal influenza vaccine strains for humans with diverse pre-exposure histories

Seasonal influenza vaccine strains are routinely updated when influenza viruses acquire mutations in exposed regions of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase glycoproteins. Ironically, although thousands of viral isolates are sequenced each year, today's influenza surveillance community places less emphasis on viral genetic information and more emphasis on classical serological assays when choosing vaccine strains. Here, I argue that these classical serological assays are oversimplified and that they fail to detect influenza mutations that facilitate escape of particular types of human antibodies. I propose that influenza vaccine strains should be updated more frequently even when classical serological assays fail to detect significant antigenic alterations.

Contact between bird species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza strains

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) cause considerable economic losses to the poultry industry and also pose a threat to human life. The possibility that one of these strains will evolve to become transmissible between humans, sparking a major influenza pandemic, is a matter of great concern. Most studies so far have focused on assessing these odds from the perspective of the intrinsic mutability of AIV rather than the ecological constraints to invasion faced by the virus population. Here we present an alternative multihost model for the evolution of AIV in which the mode and tempo of mutation play a limited role, with the emergence of strains being determined instead principally by the prevailing profile of population-level immunity. We show that (i) many of the observed differences in influenza virus dynamics among species can be captured by our model by simply varying host lifespan and (ii) increased contact between species of different lifespans can promote the emergence of potentially more virulent strains that were hitherto suppressed in one of the species.

Exploring the antigenic relatedness of influenza virus haemagglutinins with strain-specific polyclonal antibodies

Alternative methods to the standard haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and neutralization tests to probe the antigenic properties of the influenza virus haemagglutinin (HA) were developed in this study. Vaccinia virus recombinants expressing reference HAs were used to immunize rabbits from which polyclonal antibodies were obtained. These antibodies were subtype specific but showed limited intra-subtype strain specificity in ELISA. The discriminatory capacity of these antibodies was, however, markedly increased after adsorption to cells infected with heterologous influenza viruses, revealing antigenic differences that were otherwise undistinguishable by standard HI and neutralization tests. Furthermore, the unadsorbed antibodies could be used to select escape mutants of the reference strain, which after sequencing unveiled amino acid changes responsible of the noted antigenic differences. These procedures therefore provide alternative methods for the antigenic characterization of influenza HA and might be useful in studies of HA antigenic evolution.

The inherent mutational tolerance and antigenic evolvability of influenza hemagglutinin

Influenza is notable for its evolutionary capacity to escape immunity targeting the viral hemagglutinin. We used deep mutational scanning to examine the extent to which a high inherent mutational tolerance contributes to this antigenic evolvability. We created mutant viruses that incorporate most of the ≈10(4) amino-acid mutations to hemagglutinin from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) influenza. After passaging these viruses in tissue culture to select for functional variants, we used deep sequencing to quantify mutation frequencies before and after selection. These data enable us to infer the preference for each amino acid at each site in hemagglutinin. These inferences are consistent with existing knowledge about the protein's structure and function, and can be used to create a model that describes hemagglutinin's evolution far better than existing phylogenetic models. We show that hemagglutinin has a high inherent tolerance for mutations at antigenic sites, suggesting that this is one factor contributing to influenza's antigenic evolution.

Antigenic variation of clade 2.1 H5N1 virus is determined by a few amino acid substitutions immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are genetically highly variable and have diversified into multiple phylogenetic clades over the past decade. Antigenic drift is a well-studied phenomenon for seasonal human influenza viruses, but much less is known about the antigenic evolution of HPAI H5N1 viruses that circulate in poultry. In this study, we focused on HPAI H5N1 viruses that are enzootic to Indonesia. We selected representative viruses from genetically distinct lineages that are currently circulating and determined their antigenic properties by hemagglutination inhibition assays. At least six antigenic variants have circulated between 2003, when H5N1 clade 2.1 viruses were first detected in Indonesia, and 2011. During this period, multiple antigenic variants cocirculated in the same geographic regions. Mutant viruses were constructed by site-directed mutagenesis to represent each of the circulating antigenic variants, revealing that antigenic differences between clade 2.1 viruses were due to only one or very few amino acid substitutions immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Antigenic variants of H5N1 virus evaded recognition by both ferret and chicken antibodies. The molecular basis for antigenic change in clade 2.1 viruses closely resembled that of seasonal human influenza viruses, indicating that the hemagglutinin of influenza viruses from different hosts and subtypes may be similarly restricted to evade antibody recognition.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are responsible for severe outbreaks in both commercial and backyard poultry, causing considerable economic losses and regular zoonotic transmissions to humans. Vaccination is used increasingly to reduce the burden of HPAI H5N1 virus in poultry. Influenza viruses can escape from recognition by antibodies induced upon vaccination or infection through genetic changes in the hemagglutinin protein. The evolutionary patterns and molecular basis of antigenic change in HPAI H5N1 viruses are poorly understood, hampering formulation of optimal vaccination strategies. We have shown here that HPAI H5N1 viruses in Indonesia diversified into multiple antigenic variants, that antigenic differences were due to one or a very few substitutions near the receptor binding site, and that the molecular basis for antigenic change was remarkably similar to that for seasonal human influenza viruses. These findings have consequences for future vaccination and surveillance considerations and contribute to the understanding of the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses.

Genetic analysis of post-pandemic 2010-2011 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin virus variants that caused mild, severe, and fatal infections in Northern Greece

Since its appearance, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 caused considerable morbidity and mortality in Northern Greece. Genetic analysis of post-pandemic circulating strains scoped to investigate any correlation between genetic variations that emerged during viral evolution and severity of infection. Pharyngeal swabs/aspirates (n = 1,870) were examined with real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Hemagglutinin sequences were analyzed on 110 strains (37 fatal/73 non-fatal cases), followed by statistical and phylogenetic analysis. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was detected in 848 samples. Coexistence of clusters 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 indicated co-circulation of lineages in Northern Greece. Genetic analysis showed that HA sequences had 96-99% sequence similarity with the vaccine strain and that there was no association between any co-circulating lineage and severity. Several viruses accumulated variations in HA antigenic sites. D222G was significantly associated with fatal infections, supporting its association with increased viral pathogenesis. On the other hand, four variations were associated with milder disease outcomes. Certain signature amino acid changes persisted during and/or after the pandemic, indicating their offer of selective advantages to the virus. Negative selection was observed in 70% of pandemic variations as they probably did not contribute to the virus fitness. It is of interest that persistent variations were highly identified in the vicinity of antigenic or receptor-binding sites. Of those, K171R was associated only with fatal infections. Also of interest, only strains that were isolated from fatal infections had variations that altered both their acid-base and polarity properties. Genetic changes that may alter the antigenicity, pathogenicity and transmissibility of circulating virus variants need to be determined and closely monitored.

Advances in influenza vaccination

Influenza virus infections yearly cause high morbidity and mortality burdens in humans, and the development of a new influenza pandemic continues to threaten mankind as a Damoclean sword. Influenza vaccines have been produced by using egg-based virus growth and passaging techniques that were developed more than 60 years ago, following the identification of influenza A virus as an etiological agent of seasonal influenza. These vaccines aimed mainly at eliciting neutralizing antibodies targeting antigenically variable regions of the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, which requires regular updates to match circulating seasonal influenza A and B virus strains. Given the relatively limited protection induced by current seasonal influenza vaccines, a more universal influenza vaccine that would protect against more—if not all—influenza viruses is among the largest unmet medical needs of the 21st century. New insights into correlates of protection from influenza and into broad B- and T-cell protective anti-influenza immune responses offer promising avenues for innovative vaccine development as well as manufacturing strategies or platforms, leading to the development of a new generation of vaccines. These aim at the rapid and massive production of influenza vaccines that provide broad protective and long-lasting immunity. Recent advances in influenza vaccine research demonstrate the feasibility of a wide range of approaches and call for the initiation of preclinical proof-of-principle studies followed by clinical trials in humans.

Continuing challenges in influenza

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease in mammals and domestic poultry that emerges from zoonotic reservoirs in aquatic birds and bats. Although influenza viruses are among the most intensively studied pathogens, existing control options require further improvement. Influenza vaccines must be regularly updated because of continuous antigenic drift and sporadic antigenic shifts in the viral surface glycoproteins. Currently, influenza therapeutics are limited to neuraminidase inhibitors; novel drugs and vaccine approaches are therefore urgently needed. Advances in vaccinology and structural analysis have revealed common antigenic epitopes on hemagglutinins across all influenza viruses and suggest that a universal influenza vaccine is possible. In addition, various immunomodulatory agents and signaling pathway inhibitors are undergoing preclinical development. Continuing challenges in influenza include the emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009, human infections with avian H7N9 influenza in 2013, and sporadic human cases of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza. Here, we review the challenges facing influenza scientists and veterinary and human public health officials; we also discuss the exciting possibility of achieving the ultimate goal of controlling influenza's ability to change its antigenicity.

Low 2012-13 influenza vaccine effectiveness associated with mutation in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain not antigenic drift in circulating viruses

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is generally interpreted in the context of vaccine match/mismatch to circulating strains with evolutionary drift in the latter invoked to explain reduced protection. During the 2012-13 season, however, detailed genotypic and phenotypic characterization shows that low VE was instead related to mutations in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain rather than antigenic drift in circulating viruses.

METHODS/FINDINGS

Component-specific VE against medically-attended, PCR-confirmed influenza was estimated in Canada by test-negative case-control design. Influenza A viruses were characterized genotypically by amino acid (AA) sequencing of established haemagglutinin (HA) antigenic sites and phenotypically through haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. H3N2 viruses were characterized in relation to the WHO-recommended, cell-passaged vaccine prototype (A/Victoria/361/2011) as well as the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. Among the total of 1501 participants, influenza virus was detected in 652 (43%). Nearly two-thirds of viruses typed/subtyped were A(H3N2) (394/626; 63%); the remainder were A(H1N1)pdm09 (79/626; 13%), B/Yamagata (98/626; 16%) or B/Victoria (54/626; 9%). Suboptimal VE of 50% (95%CI: 33-63%) overall was driven by predominant H3N2 activity for which VE was 41% (95%CI: 17-59%). All H3N2 field isolates were HI-characterized as well-matched to the WHO-recommended A/Victoria/361/2011 prototype whereas all but one were antigenically distinct from the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. The egg-adapted strain was itself antigenically distinct from the WHO-recommended prototype, and bore three AA mutations at antigenic sites B [H156Q, G186V] and D [S219Y]. Conversely, circulating viruses were identical to the WHO-recommended prototype at these positions with other genetic variation that did not affect antigenicity. VE was 59% (95%CI:16-80%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 67% (95%CI: 30-85%) against B/Yamagata (vaccine-lineage) and 75% (95%CI: 29-91%) against B/Victoria (non-vaccine-lineage) viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the need to monitor vaccine viruses as well as circulating strains to explain vaccine performance. Evolutionary drift in circulating viruses cannot be regulated, but influential mutations introduced as part of egg-based vaccine production may be amenable to improvements.

Detection of nonhemagglutinating influenza a(h3) viruses by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in quantitative influenza virus culture

To assess the efficacy of novel antiviral drugs against influenza virus in clinical trials, it is necessary to quantify infectious virus titers in respiratory tract samples from patients. Typically, this is achieved by inoculating virus-susceptible cells with serial dilutions of clinical specimens and detecting the production of progeny virus by hemagglutination, since influenza viruses generally have the capacity to bind and agglutinate erythrocytes of various species through their hemagglutinin (HA). This readout method is no longer adequate, since an increasing number of currently circulating influenza A virus H3 subtype (A[H3]) viruses display a reduced capacity to agglutinate erythrocytes. Here, we report the magnitude of this problem by analyzing the frequency of HA-deficient A(H3) viruses detected in The Netherlands from 1999 to 2012. Furthermore, we report the development and validation of an alternative method for monitoring the production of progeny influenza virus in quantitative virus cultures, which is independent of the capacity to agglutinate erythrocytes. This method is based on the detection of viral nucleoprotein (NP) in virus culture plates by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and it produced results similar to those of the hemagglutination assay using strains with good HA activity, including A/Brisbane/059/07 (H1N1), A/Victoria/210/09 (H3N2), other seasonal A(H1N1), A(H1N1)pdm09, and the majority of A(H3) virus strains isolated in 2009. In contrast, many A(H3) viruses that have circulated since 2010 failed to display HA activity, and infectious virus titers were determined only by detecting NP. The virus culture ELISA described here will enable efficacy testing of new antiviral compounds in clinical trials during seasons in which nonhemagglutinating influenza A viruses circulate.

Characterization of an enhanced antigenic change in the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus haemagglutinin

Murine hybridomas producing neutralizing mAbs specific to the pandemic influenza virus A/California/07/2009 haemagglutinin (HA) were isolated. These antibodies recognized at least two different but overlapping new epitopes that were conserved in the HA of most Spanish pandemic isolates. However, one of these isolates (A/Extremadura/RR6530/2010) lacked reactivity with the mAbs and carried two unique mutations in the HA head (S88Y and K136N) that were required simultaneously to eliminate reactivity with the murine antibodies. This unusual requirement directly illustrates the phenomenon of enhanced antigenic change proposed previously for the accumulation of simultaneous amino acid substitutions at antigenic sites of the influenza A virus HA during virus evolution (Shih et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104 , 6283-6288, 2007). The changes found in the A/Extremadura/RR6530/2010 HA were not found in escape mutants selected in vitro with one of the mAbs, which contained instead nearby single amino acid changes in the HA head. Thus, either single or double point mutations may similarly alter epitopes of the new antigenic site identified in this work in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus HA. Moreover, this site is relevant for the human antibody response, as shown by competition of mAbs and human post-infection sera for virus binding. The results are discussed in the context of the HA antigenic structure and challenges posed for identification of sequence changes with possible antigenic impact during virus surveillance.

Substitutions near the hemagglutinin receptor-binding site determine the antigenic evolution of influenza A H3N2 viruses in U.S. swine

Swine influenza A virus is an endemic and economically important pathogen in pigs, with the potential to infect other host species. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein is the primary target of protective immune responses and the major component in swine influenza A vaccines. However, as a result of antigenic drift, vaccine strains must be regularly updated to reflect currently circulating strains. Characterizing the cross-reactivity between strains in pigs and seasonal influenza virus strains in humans is also important in assessing the relative risk of interspecies transmission of viruses from one host population to the other. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay data for swine and human H3N2 viruses were used with antigenic cartography to quantify the antigenic differences among H3N2 viruses isolated from pigs in the United States from 1998 to 2013 and the relative cross-reactivity between these viruses and current human seasonal influenza A virus strains. Two primary antigenic clusters were found circulating in the pig population, but with enough diversity within and between the clusters to suggest updates in vaccine strains are needed. We identified single amino acid substitutions that are likely responsible for antigenic differences between the two primary antigenic clusters and between each antigenic cluster and outliers. The antigenic distance between current seasonal influenza virus H3 strains in humans and those endemic in swine suggests that population immunity may not prevent the introduction of human viruses into pigs, and possibly vice versa, reinforcing the need to monitor and prepare for potential incursions.

IMPORTANCE

Influenza A virus (IAV) is an important pathogen in pigs and humans. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein is the primary target of protective immune responses and the major target of vaccines. However, vaccine strains must be updated to reflect current strains. Characterizing the differences between seasonal IAV in humans and swine IAV is important in assessing the relative risk of interspecies transmission of viruses. We found two primary antigenic clusters of H3N2 in the U.S. pig population, with enough diversity to suggest updates in swine vaccine strains are needed. We identified changes in the HA protein that are likely responsible for these differences and that may be useful in predicting when vaccines need to be updated. The difference between human H3N2 viruses and those in swine is enough that population immunity is unlikely to prevent new introductions of human IAV into pigs or vice versa, reinforcing the need to monitor and prepare for potential introductions.

Interim estimates of 2013/14 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 from Canada s sentinel surveillance network, January 2014

The 2013/14 influenza season to date in Canada has been characterised by predominant (90%) A(H1N1)pdm09 activity. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assessed in January 2014 by Canada's sentinel surveillance network using a test-negative case-control design. Interim adjusted-VE against medically-attended laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection was 74% (95% CI: 58-83). Relative to vaccine, A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses were antigenically similar and genetically well conserved, with most showing just three mutations across the 50 amino acids comprising antigenic sites of the haemagglutinin protein.

Integrating influenza antigenic dynamics with molecular evolution

Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise measurement of cross-reactivity between influenza strains using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Here, we extend previous approaches to antigenic cartography, and simultaneously characterize antigenic and genetic evolution by modeling the diffusion of antigenic phenotype over a shared virus phylogeny. Using HI data from influenza lineages A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata, we determine patterns of antigenic drift across viral lineages, showing that A/H3N2 evolves faster and in a more punctuated fashion than other influenza lineages. We also show that year-to-year antigenic drift appears to drive incidence patterns within each influenza lineage. This work makes possible substantial future advances in investigating the dynamics of influenza and other antigenically-variable pathogens by providing a model that intimately combines molecular and antigenic evolution.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01914.001

Every year, seasonal influenza, commonly called flu, infects up to one in five people around the world, and causes up to half a million deaths. Even though the human immune system can detect and destroy the virus that causes influenza, people can catch flu many times throughout their lifetimes because the virus keeps evolving in an effort to avoid the immune system. This antigenic drift—so-called because the antigens displayed by the virus keep changing—also explains why influenza vaccines become less effective over time and need to be reformulated every year.

It is possible to determine which antigens are displayed by a new strain of the virus by observing how blood samples that respond to known strains respond to the new strain. This information about the “antigenic phenotype” of the virus can be plotted on an antigenic map in which strains with similar antigens cluster together. Gene sequencing has shown that there are four subtypes of the flu virus that commonly infect people; but the relationship between changes in antigenic phenotype and changes in gene sequences of the influenza virus is poorly understood.

Bedford et al. have now developed an approach to combine antigenic maps with genetic information about the four subtypes of the human flu virus. This revealed that the antigenic phenotype of H3N2—a subtype that is becoming increasingly common—evolved faster than the other three subtypes. Further, a correlation was observed between antigenic drift and the number of new influenza cases per year for each flu strain. This suggests that knowing which antigenic phenotypes are present at the start of flu season could help predict which strains of the virus will predominate later on.

The work of Bedford et al. provides a useful framework to study influenza, and could help to pinpoint which changes in viral genes cause the changes in antigens. This information could potentially speed up the development of new flu vaccines for each flu season.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01914.002

Receptor binding properties of the influenza virus hemagglutinin as a determinant of host range

Host cell attachment by influenza A viruses is mediated by the hemagglutinin glycoprotein (HA), and the recognition of specific types of sialic acid -containing glycan receptors constitutes one of the major determinants of viral host range and transmission properties. Structural studies have elucidated some of the viral determinants involved in receptor recognition of avian-like and human-like receptors for various subtypes of influenza A viruses, and these provide clues relating to the mechanisms by which viruses evolve to adapt to human hosts. We discuss structural aspects of receptor binding by influenza HA, as well as the biological implications of functional interplay involving HA binding, NA sialidase functions, the effects of antigenic drift, and the inhibitory properties of natural glycans present on mucosal surfaces.

Influenza neuraminidase as a vaccine antigen

Neuraminidase (NA) is the second most abundant influenza surface glycoprotein and contributes to virus replication in several ways, most notably by removing sialic acids from the host and viral glycoproteins, releasing newly formed virus particles from infected cells. Antibodies that block this enzyme activity restrict virus replication in vitro. This chapter describes foundational epidemiologic and human influenza challenge studies that provide evidence of an association between NA inhibiting antibodies and resistance to disease. Mouse challenge studies show that while NA immunity is infection-permissive, NA-specific antibodies attenuate infection and prevent severe disease. NA immunity is most effective against homologous viruses but there is substantial protection against viruses with a heterologous NA (different lineage within a NA subtype). Monoclonal antibodies specific for conserved antigenic domains of subtype N1 protect against seasonal and pandemic H1N1 as well as H5N1 virus challenge. Clinical studies demonstrate that licensed seasonal vaccines contain immunogenic amounts of NA, but the contribution of this immunity to vaccine efficacy is currently not known. New types of influenza vaccines could be designed to elicit NA immunity. Because NA induces heterologous immunity, it could be an important constituent of universal influenza vaccines that aim to protect against unexpected emerging viruses.

Genomewide analysis of reassortment and evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulating between 1968 and 2011

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses became widespread in humans during the 1968 H3N2 virus pandemic and have been a major cause of influenza epidemics ever since. These viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. Antigenic drift is the cause for the need to update influenza vaccines frequently. Using two data sets that span the entire period of circulation of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses, it was shown that influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution can be mapped to 13 antigenic clusters. Here we analyzed the full genomes of 286 influenza A(H3N2) viruses from these two data sets to investigate the genomic evolution and reassortment patterns. Numerous reassortment events were found, scattered over the entire period of virus circulation, but most prominently in viruses circulating between 1991 and 1998. Some of these reassortment events persisted over time, and one of these coincided with an antigenic cluster transition. Furthermore, selection pressures and nucleotide and amino acid substitution rates of all proteins were studied, including those of the recently discovered PB1-N40, PA-X, PA-N155, and PA-N182 proteins. Rates of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions were most pronounced for the hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, and PB1-F2 proteins. Selection pressures were highest in hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, matrix 1, and nonstructural protein 1. This study of genotype in relation to antigenic phenotype throughout the period of circulation of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses leads to a better understanding of the evolution of these viruses.

IMPORTANCE

Each winter, influenza virus infects approximately 5 to 15% of the world's population, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. This leads to changes in antigenic recognition (antigenic drift) which make it necessary to update vaccines against influenza A(H3N2) viruses frequently. In this study, the relationship of genetic evolution to antigenic change spanning the entire period of A(H3N2) virus circulation was studied for the first time. The results presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of genetic evolution in correlation with antigenic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.