Target Trial Emulation: A Framework for Causal Inference From Observational Data

Lithium versus anticonvulsants and the risk of physical disorders - Results from a comprehensive long-term nation-wide population-based study emulating a target trial

Bipolar disorder is associated with increased rates of many physical disorders, but the effects of medication are unclear. We systematically investigated the associations between sustained use of first line maintenance agents, lithium versus lamotrigine and valproate, and the risk of physical disorders using a nation-wide population-based target trial emulation covering the entire 5.9 million inhabitants in Denmark. We identified two cohorts. Cohort 1: patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder prior to first purchase (N = 12.607). Cohort 2: all 156.678 adult patients who had their first ever purchase (since 1995) of either lithium, lamotrigine or valproate between 1997 and 2021 regardless of diagnosis. Main analyses investigated the effect of sustained exposure defined as exposure for all consecutive 6-months periods during a 10-year follow-up. Outcomes included a diagnosis of incident stroke, arteriosclerosis, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, myxedema, osteoporosis, dementia, Parkinson's disease, chronic kidney disease and cancer (including subtypes). In both Cohorts 1 and 2, there were no systematic statistically significant differences in associations between sustained use of lithium versus lamotrigine and valproate, respectively, and any physical disorder, including subtypes of disorders, except myxedema, for which exposure to lithium increased the absolute risk of myxedema with 7-10 % compared with lamotrigine or valproate. In conclusion, these analyses emulating a target trial of "real world" observational register-based data show that lithium does not increase the risk of developing any kind of physical disorders, except myxedema, which may be a result of detection bias.

Comparative Risk of Injury with Concurrent Use of Opioids and Skeletal Muscle Relaxants

Concurrent use of skeletal muscle relaxants (SMRs) and opioids has been linked to an increased risk of injury. However, it remains unclear whether the injury risks differ by specific SMR when combined with opioids. We conducted nine retrospective cohort studies within a US Medicaid population. Each cohort consisted exclusively of person-time exposed to both an SMR and one of the three most dispensed opioids-hydrocodone, oxycodone, and tramadol. Opioid users were further divided into three cohorts based on the initiation order of SMRs and opioids-synchronically triggered, opioid-triggered, and SMR-triggered. Within each cohort, we used Cox proportional hazard models to compare the injury rates for different SMRs compared to methocarbamol, adjusting for covariates. We identified 349,543, 139,458, and 218,967 concurrent users of SMRs with hydrocodone, oxycodone, and tramadol, respectively. In the oxycodone-SMR-triggered cohort, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.86 (95% CI, 1.23-2.82) for carisoprodol and 1.73 (1.09-2.73) for tizanidine. In the tramadol-synchronically triggered cohort, the adjusted HRs were 0.69 (0.49-0.97) for metaxalone and 0.62 (0.42-0.90) for tizanidine. In the tramadol-SMR-triggered cohort, the adjusted HRs were 1.51 (1.01-2.26) for baclofen and 1.48 (1.03-2.11) for cyclobenzaprine. All other HRs were statistically nonsignificant. In conclusion, the relative injury rate associated with different SMRs used concurrently with the three most dispensed opioids appears to vary depending on the specific opioid and the order of combination initiation. If confirmed by future studies, clinicians should consider the varying injury rates when prescribing SMRs to individuals using hydrocodone, oxycodone, and tramadol.

Evidence for genetic causality between iron homeostasis and Parkinson's disease: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a degenerative disease of the central nervous system, and its specific etiology is still unclear. At present, it is believed that the main pathological basis is the reduction of dopamine concentration in the brain striatum. Although many previous studies have believed that iron as an important nutrient element participates in the occurrence and development of PD, whether there is a causal correlation between total iron binding capacity(TIBC), transferring saturation(TSAT), ferritin and serum iron in iron homeostasis indicators and PD, there has been a lack of effective genetic evidence.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) as an analytical method to effectively evaluate the genetic association between exposure and outcome, based on the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) data to date. By using randomly assigned genetic instrumental variables (SNPs, Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) that are not affected by any causal relationship, we effectively evaluated the causal relationship between iron homeostasis indicators and PD while controlling for confounding factors.

RESULTS

By coordinated analysis of 86 SNPs associated with iron homeostasis markers and 12,858,066 SNPs associated with PD, a total of 56 SNPs were finally screened for genome-wide significance of iron homeostasis associated with PD. The results of inverse variance weighting(IVW) analysis suggested that iron（ β = - 0.524; 95%cl=-0.046 to -0.002; P=0.032) was considered to have a genetic causal relationship with PD. Cochran's Q, Egger intercept and MR-PRESSO global tests did not detect the existence of heterogeneity and pleiotropy (P>0.05). Mr Steiger directionality test further confirmed our estimation of the potential causal direction of iron and PD (P=0.001). In addition, TIBC (β=-0.142; 95%Cl=-0.197-0.481; P=0.414), TSAT (β=-0.316; 95%Cl=-0.861-0.229; P=0.255), and ferritin (β=-0.387; 95%Cl=-1.179-0.405; P=0.338) did not have genetic causal relationships with PD, and the results were not heterogeneous and pleiotropic (P>0.05). In addition, TIBC (β=-0.142; 95%Cl=-0.197-0.481; P=0.414), TSAT (β=-0.316; 95%Cl=-0.861-0.229; P=0.255), and ferritin (β=-0.101; 95%Cl=--0.987 to -0.405; P=0.823) did not have genetic causal relationships with PD, and the results were not heterogeneous and pleiotropic (P>0.05). TIBC (P=0.008), TSAT (P=0.000) and ferritin (P=0.013) were all consistent with the estimation of MR Steiger directivity test.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that among the four iron homeostasis markers, there was a genetic causal association between serum iron and PD, and the serum iron level was negatively correlated with the risk of PD. In addition, TIBC, TSAT, ferritin had no genetic causal relationship with PD.

A practical guide to estimating treatment effects in patients with rheumatic diseases using real-world data

OBJECTIVE

Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard in study methodology. However, due to their study design and inclusion criteria, these studies may not capture the heterogeneity of real-world patient populations. In contrast, the lack of randomization and the presence of both measured and unmeasured confounding factors could bias the estimated treatment effect when using observational data. While causal inference methods allow for the estimation of treatment effects, their mathematical complexity may hinder their application in clinical research.

METHODS

We present a practical, nontechnical guide using a common statistical package (Stata) and a motivational simulated dataset that mirrors real-world observational data from patients with rheumatic diseases. We demonstrate regression analysis, regression adjustment, inverse-probability weighting, propensity score (PS) matching and two robust estimation methods.

RESULTS

Although the methods applied to control for confounding factors produced similar results, the commonly used one-to-one PS matching method could yield biased results if not thoroughly assessed.

CONCLUSION

The guide we propose aims to facilitate the use of readily available methods in a common statistical package. It may contribute to robust and transparent epidemiological and statistical methods, thereby enhancing effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology.

Target trial emulation for comparative effectiveness research with observational data: Promise and challenges for studying medications for opioid use disorder

Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) increase retention in care and decrease mortality during active treatment; however, information about the comparative effectiveness of different forms of MOUD is sparse. Observational comparative effectiveness studies are subject to many types of bias; a robust framework to minimize bias would improve the quality of comparative effectiveness evidence. This paper discusses the use of target trial emulation as a framework to conduct comparative effectiveness studies of MOUD with administrative data. Using examples from our planned research project comparing buprenorphine-naloxone and extended-release naltrexone with respect to the rates of MOUD discontinuation, we provide a primer on the challenges and approaches to employing target trial emulation in the study of MOUD.

Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for Hypertension and Risk of Epilepsy

Importance

Animal and human studies have suggested that the use of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) may be associated with a lower risk of incident epilepsy compared with other antihypertensive medications. However, observational data from the US are lacking.

Objective

To evaluate the association between ARB use and epilepsy incidence in subgroups of US patients with hypertension.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from a national health administrative database from January 2010 to December 2017 with propensity score (PS) matching. The eligible cohort included privately insured individuals aged 18 years or older with diagnosis of primary hypertension and dispensed at least 1 ARB, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), β-blocker, or calcium channel blocker (CCB) from 2010 to 2017. Patients with a diagnosis of epilepsy at or before the index date or dispensed an antiseizure medication 12 months before or 90 days after initiating the study medications were excluded. The data analysis for this project was conducted from April 2022 to April 2024.

Exposures

Propensity scores were generated based on baseline covariates and used to match patients who received ARBs with those who received either ACEIs, β-blockers, CCBs, or a combination of these antihypertensive medications.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate epilepsy incidence during follow-up comparing the ARB cohort with other antihypertensive classes. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the association between ARB use and epilepsy incidence in various subgroups.

Results

Of 2 261 964 patients (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [13.9] years; 1 120 630 [49.5%] female) included, 309 978 received ARBs, 807 510 received ACEIs, 695 887 received β-blockers, and 448 589 received CCBs. Demographic and clinical characteristics differed across the 4 comparison groups prior to PS matching. Compared with ARB users, patients receiving ACEIs were predominantly male and had diabetes, CCB users were generally older (eg, >65 years), and β-blocker users had more comorbidities and concurrent medications. The 1:1 PS-matched subgroups included 619 858 patients for ARB vs ACEI, 619 828 patients for ARB vs β-blocker, and 601 002 patients for ARB vs CCB. Baseline characteristics were equally distributed between comparison groups after matching with propensity scores. Use of ARBs was associated with a decreased incidence of epilepsy compared with ACEIs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.96), β-blockers (aHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90), and a combination of other antihypertensive classes (aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56-0.95). Subgroup analyses revealed a significant association between ARB use (primarily losartan) and epilepsy incidence in patients with no preexisting history of stroke or cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that ARBs, mainly losartan, were associated with a lower incidence of epilepsy compared with other antihypertensive agents in hypertensive patients with no preexisting stroke or cardiovascular disease. Further studies, such as randomized clinical trials, are warranted to confirm the comparative antiepileptogenic properties of antihypertensive medications.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry

BACKGROUND

To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon β-1a (IFN) using observational data.

METHODS

We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Designing target trials using electronic health records: A case study of second-line disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs and cardiovascular disease outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND

Emulation of the "target trial" (TT), a hypothetical pragmatic randomized controlled trial (RCT), using observational data can be used to mitigate issues commonly encountered in comparative effectiveness research (CER) when randomized trials are not logistically, ethically, or financially feasible. However, cardiovascular (CV) health research has been slow to adopt TT emulation. Here, we demonstrate the design and analysis of a TT emulation using electronic health records to study the comparative effectiveness of the addition of a disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) to a regimen of methotrexate on CV events among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients.

METHODS

We used data from an electronic medical records-based cohort of RA patients from Northwestern Medicine to emulate the TT. Follow-up began 3 months after initial prescription of MTX (2000-2020) and included all available follow-up through June 30, 2020. Weighted pooled logistic regression was used to estimate differences in CVD risk and survival. Cloning was used to handle immortal time bias and weights to improve baseline and time-varying covariate imbalance.

RESULTS

We identified 659 eligible people with RA with average follow-up of 46 months and 31 MACE events. The month 24 adjusted risk difference for MACE comparing initiation vs non-initiation of a DMARD was -1.47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.74, 1.95%), and the marginal hazard ratio (HR) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.23). In analyses subject to immortal time bias, the HR was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.29-1.44).

CONCLUSION

In this sample, we did not observe evidence of differences in risk of MACE, a finding that is compatible with previously published meta-analyses of RCTs. Thoughtful application of the TT framework provides opportunities to conduct CER in observational data. Benchmarking results of observational analyses to previously published RCTs can lend credibility to interpretation.

Target Trial Emulation: Improving the Quality of Observational Studies in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Using the Principles of Randomized Trials

The past decade has seen a substantial increase in the number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard method for generating robust evidence of drug safety and efficacy but are expensive, time-consuming, and may have ethical implications. Observational studies in IBD are often used to fill the gaps in evidence but are typically hindered by significant bias. There are several approaches for making statistical inferences from observational data with some that focus on study design and others on statistical techniques. Target trial emulation is an emerging methodological process that aims to bridge this gap and improve the quality of observational studies by applying the principles of an ideal, or "target," randomized trial to routinely collected clinical data. There has been a rapid expansion of observational studies that have emulated trials over the past 5 years in other medical fields, but this has yet to be adopted in gastroenterology and IBD. The wealth of nonrandomized clinical data available through electronic health records, patient registries, and administrative health databases afford innumerable hypothesis-generating opportunities for IBD research. This review outlines the principles of target trial emulation, discusses the merits to IBD observational studies in reducing the most common biases and improving confidence in causality, and details the caveats of using this approach.

Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in children and adolescents aged 12-17 years following SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection: A target trial emulation

Currently there is a lack of randomized trial data examining the use of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in paediatric patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. This target trial emulation study aims to address this gap by evaluating the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in non-hospitalized paediatric patients aged 12-17 years with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection. Among paediatric patients diagnosed between 16th March 2022 and 5th February 2023, exposure was defined as outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment within 5 days of symptom onset or COVID-19 diagnosis. Primary outcome was 28 day all-cause mortality or all-cause hospitalization, while secondary outcomes were 28 day in-hospital disease progression, 28 day COVID-19-specific hospitalization, multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), acute liver injury, acute renal failure, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Overall, 49,378 eligible paediatric patients were included. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment was associated with reduced 28 day all-cause hospitalization (absolute risk reduction = 0.23%, 95%CI = 0.19%-0.31%; relative risk = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.56-0.71). No events of mortality, in-hospital disease progression, or adverse clinical outcomes were observed among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users. The findings confirmed the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in reducing all-cause hospitalization risk among non-hospitalized pediatric patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection.

Causal Inference About the Effects of Interventions From Observational Studies in Medical Journals

Importance

Many medical journals, including JAMA, restrict the use of causal language to the reporting of randomized clinical trials. Although well-conducted randomized clinical trials remain the preferred approach for answering causal questions, methods for observational studies have advanced such that causal interpretations of the results of well-conducted observational studies may be possible when strong assumptions hold. Furthermore, observational studies may be the only practical source of information for answering some questions about the causal effects of medical or policy interventions, can support the study of interventions in populations and settings that reflect practice, and can help identify interventions for further experimental investigation. Identifying opportunities for the appropriate use of causal language when describing observational studies is important for communication in medical journals.

Observations

A structured approach to whether and how causal language may be used when describing observational studies would enhance the communication of research goals, support the assessment of assumptions and design and analytic choices, and allow for more clear and accurate interpretation of results. Building on the extensive literature on causal inference across diverse disciplines, we suggest a framework for observational studies that aim to provide evidence about the causal effects of interventions based on 6 core questions: what is the causal question; what quantity would, if known, answer the causal question; what is the study design; what causal assumptions are being made; how can the observed data be used to answer the causal question in principle and in practice; and is a causal interpretation of the analyses tenable?

Conclusions and Relevance

Adoption of the proposed framework to identify when causal interpretation is appropriate in observational studies promises to facilitate better communication between authors, reviewers, editors, and readers. Practical implementation will require cooperation between editors, authors, and reviewers to operationalize the framework and evaluate its effect on the reporting of empirical research.

Why Should the FDA Focus on Pragmatic Clinical Research?

This Viewpoint from the FDA discusses how pragmatic clinical research—assessment that uses real-world data, often in combination with research data, after initial marketing approval—can help in evaluation of new technologies, benefit research sites in underresourced settings, and better inform regulatory decisions and clinical practice.

Real-world use of glucocorticoids and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia on medical wards

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the real-world use of systemic glucocorticoids to treat patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) outside of the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 11,588 hospitalizations for CAP without chronic pulmonary disease at seven hospitals in Ontario, Canada. We report physician-level variation in the use of glucocorticoids and trends over time. We investigated the association between glucocorticoid prescriptions and clinical outcomes, using propensity score overlap weighting to account for confounding by indication.

RESULTS

Glucocorticoids were prescribed in 1283 (11.1%) patients, increasing over time from 10.0% in 2010 to 11.9% in 2020 (p = .008). Physician glucocorticoid prescribing ranged from 2.9% to 34.6% (median 10.0%, inter quartile range [IQR]: 6.7%-14.6%). Patients receiving glucocorticoids tended to be younger (median age 73 vs. 79), have higher Charlson comorbidity scores (score of 2 or more: 42.4% vs. 31.0%), more cancer (26.6% vs. 13.2%), more renal disease (11.5% vs. 6.6%), and less dementia (7.8% vs. 14.8%). Patients treated with glucocorticoids had higher rates of in-hospital mortality (weighted Risk Difference = 1.72, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.16-3.3, p = .033). Glucocorticoid use was not associated with ICU admission, hospital length-of-stay, or 30-day readmission.

CONCLUSION

Glucocorticoids were prescribed in 11.1% of patients hospitalized with CAP outside of ICU and one in four physicians prescribed glucocorticoids in more than 14% of patients. Glucocorticoid use was associated with greater in-hospital mortality, although these findings are limited by large selection effects. Clinicians should exercise caution in prescribing glucocorticoids for nonsevere CAP, and definitive trials are needed in this population.

Designing observational studies for credible causal inference in addiction research-Directed acyclic graphs, modified disjunctive cause criterion and target trial emulation

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for causal inference. With a sufficient sample size, randomization removes confounding up to the time of randomization and allows the treatment effect to be isolated. However, RCTs may have limited generalizability and transportability and are often not feasible in addiction research due to ethical or logistical constraints. The importance of observational studies from real-world settings has been increasingly recognized in research on health. This paper provides an overview of modern approaches to designing observational studies that enable causal inference. It illustrates three key techniques, Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), modified Disjunctive Cause Criterion and Target Trial Emulation, and discusses the strengths and limitations of their applications.

Causal Inference Challenges in the Relationship Between Social Determinants and Cardiovascular Outcomes

The effects of social determinants on cardiovascular outcomes are frequently estimated in epidemiologic analyses, but the profound causal and statistical challenges of this research program are not widely discussed. Here, we carefully review definitions and measures for social determinants of cardiovascular health and then examine the various assumptions required for valid causal inference in multivariable analyses of observational data, such as what one would typically encounter in cohorts, population surveys, health care databases, and vital statistics databases. We explain the necessity of the "well-defined exposure" and show how this goal relates to the "consistency assumption" that is necessary for valid causal inference. Well-defined exposure is especially challenging for social determinants of health because they are seldom simple atomistic interventions that are easily conceptualized and measured. We then review threats to valid inference that arise from confounding, selection bias, information bias, and positivity violations. Other causal considerations are reviewed and explained, such as correct model specification, absence of immortal time, and avoidance of the "Table 2 Fallacy," and their application to social determinants of cardiovascular outcomes are discussed. Fruitful approaches, including focusing on policy interventions and the "target trial" frameworks are proposed and provide a pathway for a more efficacious research program that can more reliably improve population health. Valid causal inference in this setting is quite challenging, but-with clever design and thoughtful analysis-the important role of social factors in patterning cardiovascular outcomes can be quantified and reported.

Optimising the use of electronic medical records for large scale research in psychiatry

The explosion and abundance of digital data could facilitate large-scale research for psychiatry and mental health. Research using so-called "real world data"-such as electronic medical/health records-can be resource-efficient, facilitate rapid hypothesis generation and testing, complement existing evidence (e.g. from trials and evidence-synthesis) and may enable a route to translate evidence into clinically effective, outcomes-driven care for patient populations that may be under-represented. However, the interpretation and processing of real-world data sources is complex because the clinically important 'signal' is often contained in both structured and unstructured (narrative or "free-text") data. Techniques for extracting meaningful information (signal) from unstructured text exist and have advanced the re-use of routinely collected clinical data, but these techniques require cautious evaluation. In this paper, we survey the opportunities, risks and progress made in the use of electronic medical record (real-world) data for psychiatric research.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors with or without transarterial chemoembolization as first-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (CHANCE2201): a target trial emulation study

Background

The role of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unconfirmed. This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) plus anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with or without TACE as first-line treatment for advanced HCC.

Methods

This nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study included advanced HCC patients receiving either TACE with ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (TACE-ICI-VEGF) or only ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (ICI-VEGF) from January 2018 to December 2022. The study design followed the target trial emulation framework with stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW) to minimize biases. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and safety. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05332821.

Findings

Among 1244 patients included in the analysis, 802 (64.5%) patients received TACE-ICI-VEGF treatment, and 442 (35.5%) patients received ICI-VEGF treatment. The median follow-up time was 21.1 months and 20.6 months, respectively. Post-application of sIPTW, baseline characteristics were well-balanced between the two groups. TACE-ICI-VEGF group exhibited a significantly improved median OS (22.6 months [95% CI: 21.2-23.9] vs 15.9 months [14.9-17.8]; P < 0.0001; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.63 [95% CI: 0.53-0.75]). Median PFS was also longer in TACE-ICI-VEGF group (9.9 months [9.1-10.6] vs 7.4 months [6.7-8.5]; P < 0.0001; aHR 0.74 [0.65-0.85]) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1. A higher ORR was observed in TACE-ICI-VEGF group, by either RECIST v1.1 or modified RECIST (41.2% vs 22.9%, P < 0.0001; 47.3% vs 29.7%, P < 0.0001). Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 178 patients (22.2%) in TACE-ICI-VEGF group and 80 patients (18.1%) in ICI-VEGF group.

Interpretation

This multicenter study supports the use of TACE combined with ICIs and anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs as first-line treatment for advanced HCC, demonstrating an acceptable safety profile.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Jiangsu Provincial Medical Innovation Center, Collaborative Innovation Center of Radiation Medicine of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and Nanjing Life Health Science and Technology Project.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors vs Sulfonylureas for Gout Prevention Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Receiving Metformin

Importance

Sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) are a revolutionary treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D) with cardiovascular, kidney, and serum urate-lowering benefits.

Objective

To compare risk of incident gout and rate of recurrent flares between patients with T2D initiating SGLT2i vs sulfonylurea, most common second-line glucose-lowering therapy, when added to metformin monotherapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This sequential, propensity score-matched, new-user comparative effectiveness study using target trial emulation framework included adults with T2D receiving metformin monotherapy in a Canadian general population database from January 1, 2014, to June 30, 2022.

Exposures

Initiation of SGLT2i vs sulfonylurea.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incident gout diagnosis, ascertained by emergency department (ED), hospital, outpatient, and medication dispensing records. Secondary outcomes were gout-primary hospitalizations and ED visits and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), as well as recurrent flare rates among prevalent gout patients. Heart failure (HF) hospitalization was assessed as positive control outcome and osteoarthritis encounters as negative control. For target trial emulations, we used Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regressions with 1:1 propensity score matching (primary analysis) and overlap weighting (sensitivity analysis). The analysis was conducted from September to December, 2023.

Results

Among 34 604 propensity score matched adults with T2D initiating SGLT2i or sulfonylurea (20 816 [60%] male, mean [SD] age, 60 [12.4] years), incidence of gout was lower among SGLT2i initiators (4.27 events per 1000 person-years) than sulfonylurea initiators (6.91 events per 1000 person-years), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.48-0.80) and a rate difference (RD) of -2.64 (95% CI, -3.99 to -1.29) per 1000 person-years. Associations persisted regardless of sex, age, or baseline diuretic use. SGLT2i use was also associated with fewer recurrent flares among gout patients (rate ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.82; and RD, -20.9; 95% CI, -31.9 to -10.0 per 1000 person-years). HR and RD for MACE associated with SGLT2i use were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77-0.98) and -3.58 (95% CI, -6.19 to -0.96) per 1000 person-years. For control outcomes, SGLT2i users had lower risk of HF (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.38-0.76), as expected, with no difference in osteoarthritis (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.34). Results were similar when applying propensity score overlap weighting.

Conclusions

In this population-based cohort study, the gout and cardiovascular benefits associated with SGLT2i in these target trial emulations may guide selection of glucose-lowering therapy in patients with T2D, at risk for or already with gout.

Emulating trial to evaluate the effectiveness of routine supportive care on mortality among cancer patients experiencing distress at the time of diagnosis

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of interventions for distress during cancer diagnosis on clinical outcomes in a real-world setting. We aimed to evaluate whether routine information and psychosocial support to patients experiencing distress at the time of diagnosis could decrease the risk of mortality within 1 and 3 years after diagnosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 4880 newly diagnosed cancer patients who reported distress scores of ≥4 using the tablet or kiosk-based screening between July 2014 and December 2017 at a university-affiliated cancer center in Seoul, South Korea. We performed an emulated target trial with two groups: those that received information and psychosocial support and those that did not. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the associations between information and psychosocial support and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of all the patients, 16.6 % had routine information and psychosocial support. The hazard ratio (HR) for one-year mortality comparing participants with information and psychosocial support to those without it were 0.73 (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.54, 0.99). Age < 50 and 50 - <60 group had a stronger effect of information and psychosocial support on reducing mortality within one-year than these in age ≥ 60 (p for interaction = 0.03). In terms of three-year mortality, the HR comparing participants with information and psychosocial support to those without it was 0.93 (95 % CI = 0.76, 1.14).

CONCLUSION

This large-scale real-world study suggests that timely psychosocial care benefits newly diagnosed cancer patients who had distress during pre-treatment period.

Joint analysis of vaccination effectiveness and antiviral drug effectiveness for COVID-19: a causal inference approach

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to estimate the causal effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations in the prevention of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 in an integrative setting with both antivirals and vaccinations considered as interventions.

METHODS

We identified hospitalized adult patients (i.e. aged 18 or above) in Hong Kong with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 16, 2022, and December 31, 2022. An inverse probability-weighted (IPW) Andersen-Gill model with time-dependent predictors was used to address immortal time bias and produce causal estimates for the protection effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations against severe COVID-19.

RESULTS

Given prescription is made within 5 days of confirmed infection, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is more effective in providing protection against all-cause mortality and development into severe COVID-19 than molnupiravir. There was no significant difference between CoronaVac and Comirnaty in the effectiveness of reducing all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of oral antivirals and vaccinations causes lower risks of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 for hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Association Between Coronary Assessment in Heart Failure and Clinical Outcomes Within a Safety-Net Setting Using a Target Trial Emulation Observational Design

BACKGROUND

Ischemic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of heart failure (HF). Most patients do not undergo coronary assessment after HF diagnosis. There are no randomized clinical trials of coronary assessment after HF diagnosis.

METHODS

Using an electronic health record cohort of all individuals with HF within the San Francisco Health Network from 2001 to 2019, we identified factors associated with coronary assessment. Then, we studied the association of coronary assessment within 30 days of HF diagnosis with all-cause mortality and a composite of mortality and emergent angiography using a target trial emulation observational comparative-effectiveness approach. Target trial emulation is an approach to causal inference based on creating a hypothetical randomized clinical trial protocol and using observational data to emulate the protocol. We used propensity scores for covariate adjustment. We used national death records to improve the ascertainment of mortality and included falsification end points for the cause of death.

RESULTS

Among 14 829 individuals with HF (median, 62 years old; 5855 [40%] women), 3987 (26.9%) ever completed coronary assessment, with 2467/13 301 (18.5%) with unknown coronary artery disease status at HF diagnosis assessed. Women, older individuals, and people without stable housing were less likely to complete coronary assessment. Among 5972 eligible persons of whom 627 underwent early elective coronary assessment, coronary assessment was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72-0.97]; P=0.025), reduced risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.73-1.00]), higher rates of revascularization (odds ratio, 7.6 [95% CI, 5.4-10.6]), and higher use of medical therapy (odds ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.7-3.6]), but not the falsification end points.

CONCLUSIONS

In a safety-net population, disparities in coronary assessment after HF diagnosis are not fully explained by coronary artery disease risk factors. Early coronary assessment is associated with improved HF outcomes possibly related to higher rates of revascularization and guideline-directed medical therapy but with low certainty that this finding is not attributable to unmeasured confounding.

[Advances in Mendelian randomization studies on autism spectrum disorder]

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder with onset in infancy or early childhood. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a statistical method used to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes. This article summarizes MR studies related to ASD. Existing research supports a causal relationship between maternal inflammatory bowel disease in children with ASD, parental education levels, screen time exposure, obesity, insomnia, serum transferrin, decreased blood selenium, abnormal signals in brain functional MRI, interleukin-6, phosphodiesterase 2A, mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 3, mitochondrial ribosomal protein L33, serotonin, and ASD. However, it does not support a causal relationship between parental rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, neonatal jaundice in children with ASD, cytomegalovirus infection, asthma, oral ulcers, vitamin D levels, and ASD. This article reviews the etiological factors related to ASD and MR studies, aiming to explore and deepen the understanding of the pathophysiology of ASD. It provides strong statistical support for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of ASD, and offers new methods and strategies for the etiological analysis of complex traits.

Serious Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Using Diltiazem With Apixaban or Rivaroxaban

Importance

Diltiazem, a commonly prescribed ventricular rate-control medication for patients with atrial fibrillation, inhibits apixaban and rivaroxaban elimination, possibly causing overanticoagulation.

Objective

To compare serious bleeding risk for new users of apixaban or rivaroxaban with atrial fibrillation treated with diltiazem or metoprolol.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with atrial fibrillation who initiated apixaban or rivaroxaban use and also began treatment with diltiazem or metoprolol between January 1, 2012, and November 29, 2020. Patients were followed up to 365 days through November 30, 2020. Data were analyzed from August 2023 to February 2024.

Exposures

Diltiazem and metoprolol.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of bleeding-related hospitalization and death with recent evidence of bleeding. Secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, major ischemic or hemorrhagic events (ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, intracranial or fatal extracranial bleeding, or death with recent evidence of bleeding), and death without recent evidence of bleeding. Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) were adjusted for covariate differences with overlap weighting.

Results

The study included 204 155 US Medicare beneficiaries, of whom 53 275 received diltiazem and 150 880 received metoprolol. Study patients (mean [SD] age, 76.9 [7.0] years; 52.7% female) had 90 927 person-years (PY) of follow-up (median, 120 [IQR, 59-281] days). Patients receiving diltiazem treatment had increased risk for the primary outcome (RD, 10.6 [95% CI, 7.0-14.2] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.13-1.29]) and its components of bleeding-related hospitalization (RD, 8.2 [95% CI, 5.1-11.4] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.13-1.31]) and death with recent evidence of bleeding (RD, 2.4 [95% CI, 0.6-4.2] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.05-1.34]) compared with patients receiving metoprolol. Risk for the primary outcome with initial diltiazem doses exceeding 120 mg/d (RD, 15.1 [95% CI, 10.2-20.1] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19-1.39]) was greater than that for lower doses (RD, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.0-11.4] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.04-1.24]). For doses exceeding 120 mg/d, the risk of major ischemic or hemorrhagic events was increased (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.02-1.27]). Neither dose group had significant changes in the risk for ischemic stroke or systemic embolism or death without recent evidence of bleeding. When patients receiving high- and low-dose diltiazem treatment were directly compared, the HR for the primary outcome was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.26).

Conclusions and Relevance

In Medicare patients with atrial fibrillation receiving apixaban or rivaroxaban, diltiazem was associated with greater risk of serious bleeding than metoprolol, particularly for diltiazem doses exceeding 120 mg/d.

Effect of immediate initiation of invasive ventilation on mortality in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation

PURPOSE

Invasive ventilation is a fundamental treatment in intensive care but its precise timing is difficult to determine. This study aims at assessing the effect of initiating invasive ventilation versus waiting, in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure without immediate reason for intubation on one-year mortality.

METHODS

Emulation of a target trial to estimate the benefit of immediately initiating invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure, versus waiting, among patients within the first 48-h of hypoxemia. The eligible population included non-intubated patients with SpO2/FiO2 ≤ 200 and SpO2 ≤ 97%. The target trial was emulated using a single-center database (MIMIC-IV) which contains granular information about clinical status. The hourly probability to receive mechanical ventilation was continuously estimated. The hazard ratios for the primary outcome, one-year mortality, and the secondary outcome, 30-day mortality, were estimated using weighted Cox models with stabilized inverse probability weights used to adjust for measured confounding.

RESULTS

2996 Patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria of whom 792 were intubated within 48 h. Among the non-invasive support devices, the use of oxygen through facemask was the most common (75%). Compared to patients with the same probability of intubation but who were not intubated, intubation decreased the hazard of dying for the first year after ICU admission HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.68-0.96, p = 0.018). Intubation was associated with a 30-day mortality HR of 0.80 (95% CI 0.64-0.99, p = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

The initiation of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure reduced the hazard of dying in this emulation of a target trial.

Two Weeks Versus One Week of Maximal Patient-Intensivist Continuity for Adult Medical Intensive Care Patients: A Two-Center Target Trial Emulation

OBJECTIVES

To compare outcomes for 2 weeks vs. 1 week of maximal patient-intensivist continuity in the ICU.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two U.S. urban, teaching, medical ICUs where intensivists were scheduled for 2-week service blocks: site A was in the Midwest and site B was in the Northeast.

PATIENTS

Patients 18 years old or older admitted to a study ICU between March 1, 2017, and February 28, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We applied target trial emulation to compare admission during an intensivist's first week (as a proxy for 2 wk of maximal continuity) vs. admission during their second week (as a proxy for 1 wk of maximal continuity). Outcomes included hospital mortality, ICU length of stay, and, for mechanically ventilated patients, duration of ventilation. Exploratory outcomes included imaging, echocardiogram, and consultation orders. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust for baseline differences and random-effects meta-analysis to calculate overall effect estimates. Among 2571 patients, 1254 were admitted during an intensivist's first week and 1317 were admitted during a second week. At sites A and B, hospital mortality rates were 25.8% and 24.2%, median ICU length of stay were 4 and 2 days, and median mechanical ventilation durations were 3 and 3 days, respectively. There were no differences in adjusted mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.01 [95% CI, 0.96-1.06]) or ICU length of stay (-0.25 d [-0.82 d to +0.32 d]) for 2 weeks vs. 1 week of maximal continuity. Among mechanically ventilated patients, there were no differences in adjusted mortality (OR, 1.00 [0.87-1.16]), ICU length of stay (+0.06 d [-0.78 d to +0.91 d]), or duration of mechanical ventilation (+0.37 d [-0.46 d to +1.21 d]) for 2 weeks vs. 1 week of maximal continuity.

CONCLUSIONS

Two weeks of maximal patient-intensivist continuity was not associated with differences in clinical outcomes compared with 1 week in two medical ICUs.

Oral vancomycin is associated with improved inflammatory bowel disease clinical outcomes in primary sclerosing cholangitis-associated inflammatory bowel disease (PSC-IBD): A matched analysis from the Paediatric PSC Consortium

BACKGROUND

Data on oral vancomycin for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)-associated inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are limited.

AIMS

Using data from the Paediatric PSC Consortium, to examine the effect of vancomycin on IBD activity.

METHODS

In this retrospective multi-centre cohort study, we matched vancomycin-treated and untreated patients (1:3) based on IBD duration at the time of primary outcome assessment. The primary outcome was Physician Global Assessment (PGA) of IBD clinical activity after 1 year (±6 months) of vancomycin. We used generalised estimating equations (GEE) to examine the association between vancomycin and PGA remission, adjusting for IBD type, severity and medication exposures. Secondary outcomes included serum labs and endoscopic remission (global rating of no activity) among those with available data and also analysed with GEE.

RESULTS

113 PSC-IBD patients received vancomycin (median age 12.7 years, 63% male). The matched cohort included 70 vancomycin-treated and 210 untreated patients. Vancomycin was associated with greater odds of IBD clinical remission (odds ratio [OR] 3.52, 95% CI 1.97-6.31; adjusted OR [aOR] 5.24, 95% CI 2.68-10.22). Benefit was maintained in sensitivity analyses restricted to non-transplanted patients and those with baseline moderate-severe PGA. Vancomycin was associated with increased odds of endoscopic remission (aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.002-7.62; N = 101 with data), and with lower CRP (p = 0.03) and higher haemoglobin and albumin (both p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Vancomycin was associated with greater odds of IBD clinical and endoscopic remission. Additional, preferably randomised, controlled studies are needed to characterise efficacy using objective markers of mucosal inflammation, and to examine safety and define optimal dosing.

Comparative responses to 17 different antidepressants in major depressive disorder: Results from a 2-year long-term nation-wide population-based study emulating a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Long-term studies comparing nonresponse to antidepressants for major depressive disorder (MDD) are lacking.

AIMS

To present systematic population-based nation-wide register data on comparative 2-year non-response within six antidepressant drug classes and 17 different antidepressants in patients with MDD.

METHOD

The study included all 106,920 patients in Denmark with a first main index diagnosis of MDD at a psychiatric hospital inpatient or outpatient contact and who subsequently had a purchase of an antidepressant in the period from 1995 to 2018. Non-response to first antidepressant within a 2-year study period was defined as switch to or add-on of another antidepressant, antipsychotic medication, lithium, or hospitalization. Analyses emulated a targeted trial in populations standardized according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity with psychiatric and physical disorders.

RESULTS

Compared with sertraline, there was no difference for citalopram (RR: 1.00 [95% CI: 0.98-1.02]) but fluoxetine (1.13 [95% CI: 1.10-1.17]), paroxetine (1.06 [95% CI: 1.01-1.10]) and escitalopram (1.22 [95% CI: 1.18-1.25]) were associated with higher risk ratio of non-responses. Within selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, sertraline outperformed reboxetine; within serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, venlafaxine outperformed duloxetine; within noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants, mirtazapine outperformed mianserin and within the class of other antidepressants, sertraline outperformed agomelatine and vortioxetine. Within tricyclic antidepressants, compared to amitriptyline, nortriptyline, dosulepin, and clomipramine had higher non-response, whereas there was no difference for imipramine.

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses emulating a randomized trial of "real world" observational register-based data show that 2-year long-term non-responses to some antidepressants within six different drug classes are increased over others.

Physical activity across midlife and health-related quality of life in Australian women: A target trial emulation using a longitudinal cohort

BACKGROUND

There is little long-term causal evidence on the effect of physical activity on health-related quality of life. This study aimed to examine the associations between longitudinal patterns of physical activity over 15 years and health-related quality of life in both the physical and mental health domains, in a cohort of middle-aged Australian women.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data collected at 3-year intervals (1998 to 2019) from 11,336 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) (1946 to 1951 birth cohort). Primary outcomes were the physical (PCS) and mental health component summary (MCS) scores (range from 0 to 100; higher scores indicate higher perceived physical/mental health) from the SF-36 in 2019 (when women aged 68 to 73 years). Using target trial emulation to imitate a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we tested 2 interventions: (1) meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) physical activity guidelines consistently throughout the 15-year "exposure period" (2001 to 2016; when women aged 50-55 to 65-70 years; physical activity assessed every 3 years); and (2) not meeting the guidelines at the beginning of the exposure period but starting to first meet the guidelines at age 55, 60, or 65; against the control of not meeting the guidelines throughout the exposure period. Analysis controlled for confounding using marginal structural models which were adjusted for sociodemographic and health variables and conditions. Consistent adherence to guidelines during the exposure period (PCS: 46.93 [99.5% confidence interval [CI]: 46.32, 47.54]) and first starting to meet the guidelines at age 55 (PCS: 46.96 [99.5% CI: 45.53, 48.40]) were associated with three-point higher PCS (mean score difference: 3.0 [99.5% CI: 1.8, 4.1] and 3.0 [99.5% CI:1.2, 4.8]) than consistent non-adherence (PCS: 43.90 [99.5% CI: 42.79, 45.01]). We found a similar pattern for most SF-36 subscales but no significant effects of the interventions on MCS. The main limitations of the study were that it may not account for all underlying health conditions and/or other unmeasured or insufficiently measured confounders, the use of self-reported physical activity and that findings may not be generalizable to all mid-age women.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from the emulated RCT suggest women should be active throughout mid-age, ideally increasing activity levels to meet the guidelines by age 55, to gain the most benefits for physical health in later life.

Physical Activity, Mental Activity, and Risk of Incident Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cumulative evidence suggests a correlation between physical or mental activity and the risk of stroke. However, the combined impact of these activities on stroke onset remains unexplored. This study identified physical and mental activity patterns using principal component analysis and investigated their associations with risk of incident stroke in the general population.

METHODS

Our study was sourced from the UK Biobank cohort between 2006 and 2010. Information on physical and mental-related activities were obtained through a touch-screen questionnaire. The incident stroke was diagnosed by physicians and subsequently verified through linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics. Principal component analysis was used to identify potential physical and mental activity patterns. Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of incident stroke, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

The initial UK Biobank cohort originally consisted of 502 411 individuals, of whom a total of 386 902 participants (aged 38-79 years) without any history of stroke at baseline were included in our study. During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 6983 (1.8%) cases of stroke were documented. The mean age of the included participants was 55.9 years, and the proportion of women was 55.1%. We found that multiple individual items related to physical and mental activity showed significant associations with risk of stroke. We identified 4 patterns of physical activity and 3 patterns of mental activity using principal component analysis. The adherence to activity patterns of vigorous exercise, housework, and walking predominant patterns were associated with a lower risk of stroke by 17% (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.78-0.89]; 20% (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.75-0.85]; and 20% (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.75-0.86), respectively. Additionally, the transportation predominant pattern (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.28-1.45) and watching TV pattern (HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.33-1.53) were found to be significantly associated with a higher risk of stroke. These associations remained consistent across all subtypes of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Activity patterns mainly related to frequent vigorous exercise, housework, and walking were associated with lower risks of stroke and all its subtypes. Our findings provide new insights for promoting suitable patterns of physical and mental activity for primary prevention of stroke.

EFFECT OF PAXLOVID TREATMENT DURING ACUTE COVID-19 ON LONG COVID ONSET: AN EHR-BASED TARGET TRIAL EMULATION FROM THE N3C AND RECOVER CONSORTIA

Preventing and treating post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), commonly known as Long COVID, has become a public health priority. In this study, we examined whether treatment with Paxlovid in the acute phase of COVID-19 helps prevent the onset of PASC. We used electronic health records from the National Covid Cohort Collaborative (N3C) to define a cohort of 426,352 patients who had COVID-19 since April 1, 2022, and were eligible for Paxlovid treatment due to risk for progression to severe COVID-19. We used the target trial emulation (TTE) framework to estimate the effect of Paxlovid treatment on PASC incidence. We estimated overall PASC incidence using a computable phenotype. We also measured the onset of novel cognitive, fatigue, and respiratory symptoms in the post-acute period. Paxlovid treatment did not have a significant effect on overall PASC incidence (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.01). However, it had a protective effect on cognitive (RR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.96) and fatigue (RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.98) symptom clusters, which suggests that the etiology of these symptoms may be more closely related to viral load than that of respiratory symptoms.

Do We Need to Administer Fludrocortisone in Addition to Hydrocortisone in Adult Patients With Septic Shock? An Updated Systematic Review With Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials and an Observational Study With Target Trial Emulation

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of hydrocortisone combined with fludrocortisone or hydrocortisone alone, compared with placebo in adult patients with septic shock.

DATA SOURCES

By extending a prior Cochrane review, databases, including PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov , along with other relevant websites, were searched until August 31, 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies using target trial emulation were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

The primary outcome was short-term mortality with an emphasis on 28- or 30-day mortality as the main measure and in-hospital or ICU mortality as the nearest surrogate of this measure. Three of the most common adverse events, namely, gastroduodenal bleeding, superinfection, and hyperglycemia, were also considered.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 19 studies involving 95,841 patients were included. Hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone showed the lowest short-term mortality versus placebo (odds ratio [OR]: 0.79; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.64-0.99; number needed to treat [NNT]: 21, range: 12-500; low certainty of evidence) in terms of informative priors. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve values for hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone, hydrocortisone alone, and placebo were 0.9469, 0.4542, and 0.0989, respectively. Consistent results were observed in RCTs alone and those using a daily 200-mg dose of hydrocortisone. Although gastroduodenal bleeding or superinfection showed no clear increase, hyperglycemia risk increased. The ORs were 0.53 for placebo versus hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone and 0.64 for placebo versus hydrocortisone alone, with very low certainty of evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with septic shock, hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone improved short-term survival with minimal adverse events compared with hydrocortisone alone or placebo. However, these findings are not definitive due to the limited certainty of evidence and wide NNT range. Additional large-scale, placebo-controlled RCTs are needed to provide conclusive evidence.

Comparative effectiveness of extended release naltrexone and sublingual buprenorphine for treatment of opioid use disorder among Medicaid patients

Aims

To compare the real-world effectiveness of extended release naltrexone (XR-NTX) and sublingual buprenorphine (SL-BUP) for the treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD).

Design

An observational active comparator, new user cohort study.

Setting

Medicaid claims records for patients in New Jersey and California, 2016-2019.

Participants/Cases

Adult Medicaid patients aged 18-64 years who initiated XR-NTX or SL-BUP for maintenance treatment of OUD and did not use medications for OUD in the 90-days before initiation.

Comparators

New initiation with XR-NTX versus SL-BUP for the treatment of OUD.

Measurements

We examined two outcomes up to 180 days after medication initiation, 1) composite of medication discontinuation and death, and 2) composite of overdose and death.

Findings

Our cohort included 1,755 XR-NTX and 9,886 SL-BUP patients. In adjusted analyses, treatment with XR-NTX was more likely to result in discontinuation or death by the end of follow-up than treatment with SL-BUP: cumulative risk 76% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75%, 78%) versus 62% (95% CI 61%, 63%), respectively (risk difference 14 percentage points, 95% CI 13, 16). There was minimal difference in the cumulative risk of overdose or death by the end of follow-up: XR-NTX 3.8% (95% CI 2.9%, 4.7%) versus SL-BUP 3.3% (95% 2.9%, 3.7%); risk difference 0.5 percentage points, 95%CI -0.5, 1.5. Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Longer medication retention is important because risks of negative outcomes are elevated after discontinuation. Our results support selection of SL-BUP over XR-NTX. However, most patients discontinued medication by 6 months indicating that more effective tools are needed to improve medication retention, particularly after initiation with XR-NTX, and to identify which patients do best on which medication.

Effectiveness of glucose-lowering medications on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among people with type 2 diabetes1-5, most of whom are at moderate CVD risk6, yet there is limited evidence on the preferred choice of glucose-lowering medication for CVD risk reduction in this population. Here, we report the results of a retrospective cohort study where data for US adults with type 2 diabetes and moderate risk for CVD are used to compare the risks of experiencing a major adverse cardiovascular event with initiation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA; n = 44,188), sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i; n = 47,094), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i; n = 84,315) and sulfonylureas (n = 210,679). Compared to DPP4i, GLP-1RA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.93) and SGLT2i (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.81-0.90) were associated with a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event, whereas sulfonylureas were associated with a higher risk (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.22). Thus, GLP-1RA and SGLT2i may be the preferred glucose-lowering agents for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at moderate baseline risk for CVD. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05214573.

CPAP Versus NIPPV Postextubation in Preterm Neonates: A Comparative-Effectiveness Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has been shown to be superior to nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) postextubation in preterm neonates. However, studies have not permitted high CPAP pressures or rescue with other modes. We hypothesized that if CPAP pressures >8 cmH2O and rescue with other modes were permitted, CPAP would be noninferior to NIPPV.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic, comparative-effectiveness, noninferiority study utilizing network-based real-world data from 22 Canadian NICUs. Centers self-selected CPAP or NIPPV as their standard postextubation mode for preterm neonates <29 weeks' gestation. The primary outcome was failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours. Secondary outcomes included failure ≤7 days, and reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. Groups were compared using a noninferiority adjusted risk-difference (aRD) margin of 0.05, and margin of no difference.

RESULTS

A total of 843 infants extubated to CPAP and 974 extubated to NIPPV were included. CPAP was not noninferior (and inferior) to NIPPV for failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours (33.0% vs 26.3%; aRD 0.07 [0.03 to 0.12], Pnoninferiority(NI) = .86), and ≤7 days (40.7% vs 35.8%; aRD 0.09 [0.05 to 0.13], PNI = 0.97). However, CPAP was noninferior (and equivalent) to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours (13.2% vs 16.1%; aRD 0.01 [-0.05 to 0.02], PNI < .01), and noninferior (and superior) for reintubation ≤7 days (16.4% vs 22.8%; aRD -0.04 [-0.07 to -0.001], PNI < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

CPAP was not noninferior to NIPPV for failure ≤72 hours postextubation; however, it was noninferior to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. This suggests CPAP may be a reasonable initial postextubation mode if alternate rescue strategies are available.

The association between antenatal corticosteroids exposure and postnatal growth in infants born between 23 and 29 weeks of gestation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between antenatal corticosteroids exposure and postnatal growth in infants born at 23-29 weeks' gestation.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective study used data from the Pediatrix Clinical Data Warehouse. Maternal-infant dyads from 2018 to 2020 were included. Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) was applied to balance pre-treatment confounders. Primary outcomes included postnatal weight, length, and head circumference growth trajectory percentiles.

RESULT

The unadjusted cohort consisted of 11,912 dyads. After IPW adjustment, there were 23,231 dyads. Exposed infants showed higher postnatal trajectory percentiles for weight (by 3.4%), length (by 1.8%), and head circumference (by 2.5%) when compared to non-exposed infants. The positive association between antenatal corticosteroids and postnatal growth was only observed in infants not exposed to preeclampsia/eclampsia/HELLP syndrome or without fetal growth restriction.

CONCLUSION

Antenatal corticosteroids exposure is associated with better postnatal growth. The study is limited by its retrospective nature.

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis in the SWEDEHEART registry against the REDUCE-AMI randomized trial

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis against a randomized trial increases confidence in the benchmarking process as it relies exclusively on aligning the protocol of the trial and the observational analysis, while the trials findings are unavailable. The Randomized Evaluation of Decreased Usage of Betablockers After Myocardial Infarction (REDUCE-AMI, ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03278509) trial started recruitment in September 2017 and results are expected in 2024. REDUCE-AMI aimed to estimate the effect of long-term use of beta blockers on the risk of death and myocardial following a myocardial infarction with preserved left ventricular systolic ejection fraction. We specified the protocol of a target trial as similar as possible to that of REDUCE-AMI, then emulated the target trial using observational data from Swedish healthcare registries. Had everyone followed the treatment strategy as specified in the target trial protocol, the observational analysis estimated a reduction in the 5-year risk of death or myocardial infarction of 0.8 percentage points for beta blockers compared with no beta blockers; effects ranging from an absolute reduction of 4.5 percentage points to an increase of 2.8 percentage points in the risk of death or myocardial infarction were compatible with our data under conventional statistical criteria. Once results of REDUCE-AMI are published, we will compare the results of our observational analysis against those from the trial. If this prospective benchmarking is successful, it supports the credibility of additional analyses using these observational data, which can rapidly deliver answers to questions that could not be answered by the initial trial. If benchmarking proves unsuccessful, we will conduct a "postmortem" analysis to identify the reasons for the discrepancy. Prospective benchmarking shifts the investigator focus away from an endeavour to use observational data to obtain similar results as a completed randomized trial, to a systematic attempt to align the design and analysis of the trial and the observational analysis.

Association Between a National Behavioral Weight Management Program and Veterans Affairs Health Expenditures

OBJECTIVE

The association between participation in a behavioral weight intervention and health expenditures has not been well characterized. We compared Veterans Affairs (VA) expenditures of individuals participating in MOVE!, a VA behavioral weight loss program, and matched comparators 2 years before and 2 years after MOVE! initiation.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of Veterans who had one or more MOVE! visits in 2008-2017 who were matched contemporaneously to up to 3 comparators with overweight or obesity through sequential stratification on an array of patient characteristics, including sex. Baseline patient characteristics were compared between the two cohorts through standardized mean differences. VA expenditures in the 2 years before MOVE! initiation and 2 years after initiation were modeled using generalized estimating equations with a log link and distribution with variance proportional to the standard deviation (gamma).

RESULTS

MOVE! participants (n=499,696) and comparators (n=1,336,172) were well-matched, with an average age of 56, average body mass index of 35, and similar total VA expenditures in the fiscal year before MOVE! initiation ($9662 for MOVE! participants and $10,072 for comparators, standardized mean difference=-0.019). MOVE! participants had total expenditures that were statistically lower than matched comparators in the 6 months after initiation but modestly higher in the 6 months to 2 years after initiation, though differences were small in magnitude (1.0%-1.6% differences).

CONCLUSIONS

The VA's system-wide behavioral weight intervention did not realize meaningful short-term health care cost savings for participants.

ADHD Pharmacotherapy and Mortality in Individuals With ADHD

Importance

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes including premature death, but it is unclear whether ADHD pharmacotherapy influences the mortality risk.

Objective

To investigate whether initiation of ADHD pharmacotherapy was associated with reduced mortality risk in individuals with ADHD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In an observational nationwide cohort study in Sweden applying the target trial emulation framework, we identified individuals aged 6 through 64 years with an incident diagnosis of ADHD from 2007 through 2018 and no ADHD medication dispensation prior to diagnosis. Follow-up started from ADHD diagnosis until death, emigration, 2 years after ADHD diagnosis, or December 31, 2020, whichever came first.

Exposures

ADHD medication initiation was defined as dispensing of medication within 3 months of diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We assessed all-cause mortality within 2 years of ADHD diagnosis, as well as natural-cause (eg, physical conditions) and unnatural-cause mortality (eg, unintentional injuries, suicide, and accidental poisonings).

Results

Of 148 578 individuals with ADHD (61 356 females [41.3%]), 84 204 (56.7%) initiated ADHD medication. The median age at diagnosis was 17.4 years (IQR, 11.6-29.1 years). The 2-year mortality risk was lower in the initiation treatment strategy group (39.1 per 10 000 individuals) than in the noninitiation treatment strategy group (48.1 per 10 000 individuals), with a risk difference of -8.9 per 10 000 individuals (95% CI, -17.3 to -0.6). ADHD medication initiation was associated with significantly lower rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.88) and unnatural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 25.9 per 10 000 individuals vs 33.3 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -7.4 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -14.2 to -0.5; HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86), but not natural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 13.1 per 10 000 individuals vs 14.7 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -1.6 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -6.4 to 3.2; HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.05).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among individuals diagnosed with ADHD, medication initiation was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality, particularly for death due to unnatural causes.

Outcomes After Initiation of Medications for Alcohol Use Disorder at Hospital Discharge

Importance

US Food and Drug Administration-approved medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are significantly underused. Hospitalizations may provide an unmet opportunity to initiate MAUD, but few studies have examined clinical outcomes of patients who initiate these medications at hospital discharge.

Objective

To investigate the association between discharge MAUD initiation and 30-day posthospitalization outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted among patients with Medicare Part D who had alcohol-related hospitalizations in 2016. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to December 2023.

Exposures

Discharge MAUD initiation was defined as oral naltrexone, acamprosate, or disulfiram pharmacy fills within 2 days of discharge.

Main outcomes

The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality or return to hospital (emergency department visits and hospital readmissions) within 30 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes included these components separately, return to hospital for alcohol-related diagnoses, and primary care or mental health follow-up within 30 days of discharge. Propensity score 3:1 matching and modified Poisson regressions were used to compare outcomes between patients who received and did not receive discharge MAUD.

Results

There were 6794 unique individuals representing 9834 alcohol-related hospitalizations (median [IQR] age, 54 [46-62] years; 3205 hospitalizations among females [32.6%]; 1754 hospitalizations among Black [17.8%], 712 hospitalizations among Hispanic [7.2%], and 7060 hospitalizations among White [71.8%] patients). Of these, 192 hospitalizations (2.0%) involved discharge MAUD initiation. After propensity matching, discharge MAUD initiation was associated with a 42% decreased incidence of the primary outcome (incident rate ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.45 to 0.76]; absolute risk difference, -0.18 [95% CI, -0.26 to -0.11]). These findings were consistent among secondary outcomes (eg, incident rate ratio for all-cause return to hospital, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.43 to 0.73]) except for mortality, which was rare in both groups (incident rate ratio, 3.00 [95% CI, 0.42 to 21.22]). Discharge MAUD initiation was associated with a 51% decreased incidence of alcohol-related return to hospital (incident rate ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.34 to 0.71]; absolute risk difference, -0.15 [95% CI, -0.22 to -0.09]).

Conclusion and relevance

In this cohort study, discharge initiation of MAUD after alcohol-related hospitalization was associated with a large absolute reduction in return to hospital within 30 days. These findings support efforts to increase uptake of MAUD initiation at hospital discharge.

Integrating Evidence to Guide Use of Biologics and Small Molecules for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Advances in science have led to the development of multiple biologics and small molecules for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This growth in advanced medical therapies has been accompanied by an increase in methodological innovation to study and compare therapies. Guidelines provide an evidence-based approach to integrating therapies into routine practice, but they are often unable to provide timely recommendations as new therapies come to market, and they have limited incorporation of real-world evidence when making recommendations. This limits the scope and usability of guidelines, and a gap remains in defining how best to position and integrate advanced medical therapies for IBD. In this review, we provide a framework for clinicians and researchers to understand key differences in sources of evidence, how different methodologies are applied to study the comparative effectiveness of advanced medical therapies in IBD, and considerations for how these sources of evidence can be used to better integrate current guideline recommendations. Over time, we anticipate this framework will allow for a transition to living guidelines and/or practice recommendations.

Comparative effectiveness of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for depression in 43,061 older adults with chronic somatic diseases: A Danish target trial emulation study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the comparative effectiveness of commonly used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for comorbid depression in older adults with chronic somatic diseases by applying a target-trial-emulation framework.

METHODS

Danish target-trial-emulation study including 43,061 individuals aged ≥65 years (54.1% females, mean age 77.8 years) with a first redeemed prescription for depression with sertraline (n = 6673), escitalopram (n = 7104) or citalopram (n = 29,284) in 2006-2017. Individuals had cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease (COPD)/asthma, diabetes, neurodegenerative disorders, or osteoporosis. Outcomes were treatment switching, combination/augmentation, psychiatric hospital contact for depression, and any psychiatric in-patient care. Follow-up was one year and adjusted Cox regression analyses calculated hazard rate ratios (HRR) within each somatic disease.

RESULTS

Across all six disease groups and four outcomes, we found that citalopram use, compared with sertraline, was associated with lower risks in several analyses, with statistically significant results in cancer, CVD, COPD/asthma, and diabetes (e.g., HRRs for psychiatric hospital contacts for depression/any psychiatric in-patient care ranging between 0.47 and 0.61). For escitalopram, compared with sertraline, some analyses indicated poorer outcomes with significantly higher risks for combination/augmentation treatment (HRRs ranging between 1.15 and 1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Although observational studies are prone to confounding, these findings indicate clinically relevant differences between the SSRIs, with better outcomes in citalopram users and poorer outcomes in escitalopram users than sertraline, urging the need for clinical studies in this vulnerable patient population.

Long-term cognitive outcomes after surgery and anesthesia: what we find depends on where we look

Purpose of review

To review how anecdote and narrative medicine, primary cohort studies, epidemiological studies, and the dementia literature can be bridged to understand long-term postoperative cognitive decline.

Recent findings

Primary cohort studies have measured recoverable declines in memory and executive function after major surgery, but less-appreciated sources also offer critical insights. Anecdote reveals that functionally-impactful cognitive decline may persist after physical recovery in some patients despite modern medications and monitoring, and that physicians are unprepared to address patients' cognitive concerns. However, epidemiological studies reproducibly demonstrate that elective surgery has no, or a negligible, average impact on cognition in older patients. Cognitively provocative factors - like medical hospital admissions or health factors like diabetes and smoking - are common in late life, and surgery likely contributes minimally to long-term cognitive change for most patients.

Summary

Patients should be reassured that, while anecdotes of durable cognitive change after surgery are easily accessible, most patients experience cognitive recovery after major surgery. However, those who do not recover deserve characterization of their symptoms and investigation of modifiable causes to facilitate cognitive recovery.