Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Screening for Relatives of Patients With Breast Cancer

CNN-based deep learning approach for classification of invasive ductal and metastasis types of breast carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Breast cancer is one of the leading cancer causes among women worldwide. It can be classified as invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) or metastatic cancer. Early detection of breast cancer is challenging due to the lack of early warning signs. Generally, a mammogram is recommended by specialists for screening. Existing approaches are not accurate enough for real-time diagnostic applications and thus require better and smarter cancer diagnostic approaches. This study aims to develop a customized machine-learning framework that will give more accurate predictions for IDC and metastasis cancer classification.

METHODS

This work proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for classifying IDC and metastatic breast cancer. The study utilized a large-scale dataset of microscopic histopathological images to automatically perceive a hierarchical manner of learning and understanding.

RESULTS

It is evident that using machine learning techniques significantly (15%-25%) boost the effectiveness of determining cancer vulnerability, malignancy, and demise. The results demonstrate an excellent performance ensuring an average of 95% accuracy in classifying metastatic cells against benign ones and 89% accuracy was obtained in terms of detecting IDC.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the proposed model improves classification accuracy. Therefore, it could be applied effectively in classifying IDC and metastatic cancer in comparison to other state-of-the-art models.

Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Personalized Lung Cancer Screening: A Population-Based, Prospective Cohort Study in China

BACKGROUND

The current one-size-fits-all screening strategy for lung cancer is not suitable for personalized screening.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the risk-adapted starting age of lung cancer screening with comprehensive consideration of risk factors?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The National Lung Cancer Screening program, a multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, was analyzed. Information on risk factor exposure was collected during the baseline risk assessment. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between risk factors and lung cancer incidence. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk was calculated to determine the age at which individuals with various risk factors reached the equivalent risk level as individuals aged ≥ 50 years with active tobacco use and a ≥ 20 pack-year smoking history.

RESULTS

Of the 1,031,911 participants enrolled in this study, 3,908 demonstrated lung cancer after a median follow-up of 3.8 years. We identified seven risk factors for lung cancer, including pack-years of smoking, secondhand smoke exposure, family history of lung cancer in first-degree relatives, history of respiratory diseases, occupational hazardous exposure, BMI, and diabetes. The 10-year cumulative risk of lung cancer for people aged ≥ 50 years with active tobacco use and a ≥ 20 pack-year smoking history was 1.37%, which was treated as the risk threshold for screening. Individuals who never smoked and those with active tobacco use and a < 30-pack-year history of smoking reached the equivalent risk level 1 to 14 years later compared with the starting age of 50 years. Men with active tobacco use, a ≥ 30-pack-year history of smoking, and concurrent respiratory diseases or diabetes should be screened 1 year earlier at the age of 49 years.

INTERPRETATION

The personalized risk-adapted starting ages for lung cancer screening, based on the principle of equal management of equal risk, can served as an optimized screening strategy to identify high-risk individuals.

Extending the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Model of Invasive Breast Cancer

PURPOSE

We extended the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) version 2 (v2) model of invasive breast cancer risk to include BMI, extended family history of breast cancer, and age at first live birth (version 3 [v3]) to better inform appropriate breast cancer prevention therapies and risk-based screening.

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the age- and race- and ethnicity-specific relative hazards for family history of breast cancer, breast density, history of benign breast biopsy, BMI, and age at first live birth for invasive breast cancer in the BCSC cohort. We evaluated calibration using the ratio of expected-to-observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 1,455,493 women age 35-79 years without a history of breast cancer. During a mean follow-up of 7.3 years, 30,266 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC v3 model had an E/O of 1.03 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04) and an AUROC of 0.646 for 5-year risk. Compared with the v2 model, discrimination of the v3 model improved most in Asian, White, and Black women. Among women with a BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m2, the true-positive rate in women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher increased from 10.0% (v2) to 19.8% (v3) and the improvement was greater among women with a BMI of ≥35 kg/m2 (7.6%-19.8%).

CONCLUSION

The BCSC v3 model updates an already well-calibrated and validated breast cancer risk assessment tool to include additional important risk factors. The inclusion of BMI was associated with the largest improvement in estimated risk for individual women.

UTP23 Is a Promising Prognostic Biomarker and Is Associated with Immune Infiltration in Breast Cancer

Breast cancer is one of the malignant tumors with a high incidence and mortality rate among women worldwide, and its prevalence is increasing year by year, posing a serious health risk to women. UTP23 (UTP23 Small Subunit Processome Component) is a nucleolar protein that is essential for ribosome production. As we all know, disruption of ribosome structure and function results in improper protein function, affecting the body's normal physiological processes and promoting cancer growth. However, little research has shown a connection between UTP23 and cancer. We analyzed the mRNA expression of UTP23 in normal tissue and breast cancer using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and the protein expression of UTP23 using The Human Protein Atlas (HPA) database. Next, we examined the relationship between UTP23 high expression and Overall Survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier Plotters and enriched 980 differentially expressed genes in UTP23 high and low expression samples using GO/KEGG and GSEA to identify potential biological functions of UTP23 and signaling pathways that it might influence. Finally, we also investigated the relationship between UTP23 and immune infiltration and examined the effect of UTP23 on the proliferation of human breast cancer cell lines by knocking down UTP23. We found that UTP23 levels in breast cancer patient samples were noticeably greater than those in healthy individuals and that high UTP23 levels were strongly linked with poor prognoses (P = 0.008). Functional enrichment analysis revealed that UTP23 expression was connected to the humoral immune response. Besides, UTP23 expression was found to be positively correlated with immune cell infiltration. Furthermore, UTP23 knockdown has been shown to inhibit the proliferation of human breast cancer cells MDA-MB-231 and HCC-1806. Taken together, our study demonstrated that UTP23 is a promising target in detecting and treating breast cancer and is intimately linked to immune infiltration.

Undifferentially Expressed CXXC5 as a Transcriptionally Regulatory Biomarker of Breast Cancer

This work hypothesizes that some genes undergo radically changed transcription regulations (TRs) in breast cancer (BC), but don't show differential expressions for unknown reasons. The TR of a gene is quantitatively formulated by a regression model between the expression of this gene and multiple transcription factors (TFs). The difference between the predicted and real expression levels of a gene in a query sample is defined as the mqTrans value of this gene, which quantitatively reflects its regulatory changes. This work systematically screens the undifferentially expressed genes with differentially expressed mqTrans values in 1036 samples across five datasets and three ethnic groups. This study calls the 25 genes satisfying the above hypothesis in at least four datasets as dark biomarkers, and the strong dark biomarker gene CXXC5 (CXXC Finger Protein 5) is even supported by all the five independent BC datasets. Although CXXC5 does not show differential expressions in BC, its transcription regulations show quantitative associations with BCs in diversified cohorts. The overlapping long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) may have contributed their transcripts to the expression miscalculations of dark biomarkers. The mqTrans analysis serves as a complementary view of the transcriptome-based detections of biomarkers that are ignored by many existing studies.

Pyrotinib versus lapatinib therapy for HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer patients after first-line treatment failure: A meta-analysis and systematic review

INTRODUCTION

It is critical to select subsequent treatments for patients after the failure of trastuzumab therapy. Following the failure of standard trastuzumab therapy guidelines in the Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology, pyrotinib and capecitabine is a grade I recommended regimen for treating patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. Concurrently, in treating patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer, lapatinib and capecitabine are also recommended regimens for those who have previously received taxanes, anthracyclines, and trastuzumab therapy. However, there is currently no systematic review and meta-analysis comparing pyrotinib with lapatinib among HER2+ MBC patients. Therefore, this study aims to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis and assess whether pyrotinib is superior to lapatinib in efficacy and safety.

METHODS

Relevant trials were searched in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases from inception until March 27th, 2022. The primary outcomes were PFS and OS, and the secondary outcomes were ORR and grade ≥3 AEs.

RESULTS

Five relevant studies were included in this study, including 2 RCTs and 3 retrospective cohort studies. Pyrotinib combined with chemotherapy is superior to lapatinib combined with chemotherapy among HER2+ metastatic breast cancer patients, with a significant improvement in PFS (prior trastuzumab therapy) (HR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.39-0.57, p<0.001, I2 = 0%, FEM), PFS (trastuzumab resistance) (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.39-0.68, p<0.001, I2 = 40%, FEM) and ORR (RR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.26-1.67, p<0.001, I2 = 8%, FEM), but has higher grade ≥3 diarrhea incidence (RR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.85-3.90, p<0.001, I2 = 44%, FEM).

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of pyrotinib combined with chemotherapy is superior to lapatinib combined with chemotherapy but has more safety risks.

Screening Programs for Breast Cancer: Toward Individualized, Risk-Adapted Strategies of Early Detection

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) comprises two approaches: screening of asymptomatic women in a specified target population at risk (usually a target age range for women at average risk), and early diagnosis for women with BC signs and symptoms. Screening for BC is a key health intervention for early detection. While population-based screening programs have been implemented for age-selected women, the pivotal clinical trials have not addressed the global utility nor the improvement of screening performance by utilizing more refined parameters for patient eligibility, such as individualized risk stratification. In addition, with the exception of the subset of women known to carry germline pathogenetic mutations in (high- or moderately-penetrant) cancer predisposition genes, such as BRCA1 and BRCA2, there has been less success in outreach and service provision for the unaffected relatives of women found to carry a high-risk mutation (i.e., "cascade testing") as it is in these individuals for whom such actionable information can result in cancers (and/or cancer deaths) being averted. Moreover, even in the absence of clinical cancer genetics services, as is the case for the immediate and at least near-term in most countries globally, the capacity to stratify the risk of an individual to develop BC has existed for many years, is available for free online at various sites/platforms, and is increasingly being validated for non-Caucasian populations. Ultimately, a precision approach to BC screening is largely missing. In the present chapter, we aim to address the concept of risk-adapted screening of BC, in multiple facets, and understand if there is a value in the implementation of adapted screening strategies in selected women, outside the established screening prescriptions, in the terms of age-range, screening modality and schedules of imaging.

Breast cancer incidence among women with a family history of breast cancer by relative's age at diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer are often advised to begin screening when they are 10 years younger than the age at which their relative was diagnosed. Evidence is lacking to determine how much earlier they should begin.

METHODS

Using Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium data on screening mammograms from 1996 to 2016, the authors constructed a cohort of 306,147 women 30-59 years of age with information on first-degree family history of breast cancer and relative's age at diagnosis. The authors compared cumulative 5-year breast cancer incidence among women with and without a first-degree family history of breast by relative's age at diagnosis and by screening age.

RESULTS

Among 306,147 women included in the study, approximately 11% reported a first-degree family history of breast cancer with 3885 breast cancer cases identified. Women reporting a relative diagnosed between 40 and 49 years and undergoing screening between ages 30 and 39 or 40 and 49 had similar 5-year cumulative incidences of breast cancer (respectively, 18.6/1000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 12.1, 25.7; 18.4/1000; 95% CI, 13.7, 23.5) as women without a family history undergoing screening between 50-59 years of age (18.0/1000; 95% CI, 17.0, 19.1). For relative's diagnosis age from 35 to 45 years of age, initiating screening 5-8 years before diagnosis age resulted in a 5-year cumulative incidence of breast cancer of 15.2/1000, that of an average 50-year-old woman.

CONCLUSION

Women with a relative diagnosed at or before age 45 may wish to consider, in consultation with their provider, initiating screening 5-8 years earlier than their relative's diagnosis age.

Racial and regional disparities of triple negative breast cancer incidence rates in the United States: An analysis of 2011-2019 NPCR and SEER incidence data

Objective

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a more aggressive subtype resistant to conventional treatments with a poorer prognosis. This study was to update the status of TNBC and the temporal changes of its incidence rate in the US.

Methods

Women diagnosed with breast cancer during 2011-2019 were obtained from the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program SEER^*Stat Database which covers the entire population of the US. The TNBC incidence and its temporal trends by race, age, region (state) and disease stage were determined during the period.

Results

A total of 238,848 (or 8.8%) TNBC women were diagnosed during the study period. TNBC occurred disproportionally higher in women of Non-Hispanic Black, younger ages, with cancer at a distant stage or poorly/undifferentiated. The age adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) for TNBC in all races decreased from 14.8 per 100,000 in 2011 to 14.0 in 2019 (annual percentage change (APC) = -0.6, P = 0.024). Incidence rates of TNBC significantly decreased with APCs of -0.8 in Non-Hispanic White women, -1.3 in West and -0.7 in Northeastern regions. Women with TNBC at the age of 35-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years, and the disease at the regional stage displayed significantly decreased trends. Among state levels, Mississippi (20.6) and Louisiana (18.9) had the highest, while Utah (9.1) and Montana (9.6) had the lowest AAIRs in 2019. New Hampshire and Indiana had significant and highest decreases, while Louisiana and Arkansas had significant and largest increases in AAIR. In individual races, TNBC displayed disparities in temporal trends among age groups, regions and disease stages. Surprisingly, Non-Hispanic White and Hispanic TNBC women (0-34 years), and Non-Hispanic Black women (≥70 years) during the entire period, as well as Asian or Pacific Islander women in the South region had increased trends between 2011 and 2017.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates an overall decreased trend of TNBC incidence in the past decade. Its incidence displayed disparities among races, age groups, regions and disease stages. Special attention is needed for a heavy burden in Non-Hispanic Black and increased trends in certain groups.

Endoscopic Screening and Risk of Colorectal Cancer according to Type 2 Diabetes Status

Current recommendations for colorectal cancer screening have not accounted for type 2 diabetes (T2D) status. It remains unknown whether the colorectal cancer-preventive benefit of endoscopic screening and the recommended age for screening initiation differ by T2D. Among 166,307 women (Nurses' Health Study I and II, 1988-2017) and 42,875 men (Health Professionals Follow-up Study, 1988-2016), endoscopic screening and T2D diagnosis were biennially updated. We calculated endoscopic screening-associated hazard ratios (HR) and absolute risk reductions (ARR) for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality according to T2D, and age-specific colorectal cancer incidence according to T2D. During a median of 26 years of follow-up, we documented 3,457 colorectal cancer cases and 1,129 colorectal cancer deaths. Endoscopic screening was associated with a similar HR of colorectal cancer incidence in the T2D and non-T2D groups (P-multiplicative interaction = 0.57). In contrast, the endoscopic screening-associated ARR for colorectal cancer incidence was higher in the T2D group (2.36%; 95% CI, 1.55%-3.13%) than in the non-T2D group (1.73%; 95% CI, 1.29%-2.16%; P-additive interaction = 0.01). Individuals without T2D attained a 10-year cumulative risk of 0.35% at the benchmark age of 45 years, whereas those with T2D reached this threshold risk level at the age of 36 years. Similar results were observed for colorectal cancer mortality. In conclusion, the absolute benefit of endoscopic screening for colorectal cancer prevention may be substantially higher for individuals with T2D compared with those without T2D. Although T2D is comparatively rare prior to the fifth decade of life, the rising incidence of young-onset T2D and heightened colorectal cancer risk associated with T2D support the consideration of earlier endoscopic screening in individuals with T2D.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

The endoscopic screening-associated ARRs for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were higher for individuals with T2D than those without T2D. Endoscopic screening confers a greater benefit for colorectal cancer prevention among T2D individuals, who may also benefit from an earlier screening than the current recommendation.

Use of Breast Cancer Risk Factors to Identify Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Screening in China

Importance

Although current guidelines highlight the need for earlier screening in women at increased risk of breast cancer in China, data on risk-adapted starting ages of screening are limited.

Objective

To explore the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening in China, with comprehensive consideration of breast cancer risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A multicenter community-based cohort study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China. Data were collected from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018, for unscreened community-dwelling women aged 40 to 74 years without a history of cancer, kidney dysfunction, or severe heart, brain, or lung disease. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to August 16, 2022.

Exposures

Baseline characteristics associated with breast cancer, including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes included breast cancer diagnosis and age at diagnosis. Risk-adapted starting age of screening was defined as the age at which women with different levels of breast cancer risk attained a 10-year cumulative risk level similar to women aged 50 years in the general population.

Results

Of the 1 549 988 women enrolled in this study, 3895 had breast cancer (median follow-up, 4.47 [IQR, 3.16-6.35] years). Participants were divided into different risk groups according to breast cancer risk scores (driven by risk factors including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index). Using the 10-year cumulative risk of breast cancer at age 50 years in the general population as a benchmark (2.65% [95% CI, 2.50%-2.76%]), the optimal starting age of screening for women with high, medium, or low risk of breast cancer was identified as 43, 48, or after 55 years, respectively. An online calculator was developed to calculate an individual's optimal starting age of screening.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study identifies the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening based on the principle of equal management of equal risks, which may inform updates of current screening guidelines.

Risk-Adjusted Cancer Screening and Prevention (RiskAP): Complementing Screening for Early Disease Detection by a Learning Screening Based on Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

Risk-adjusted cancer screening and prevention is a promising and continuously emerging option for improving cancer prevention. It is driven by increasing knowledge of risk factors and the ability to determine them for individual risk prediction. However, there is a knowledge gap between evidence of increased risk and evidence of the effectiveness and efficiency of clinical preventive interventions based on increased risk. This gap is, in particular, aggravated by the extensive availability of genetic risk factor diagnostics, since the question of appropriate preventive measures immediately arises when an increased risk is identified. However, collecting proof of effective preventive measures, ideally by prospective randomized preventive studies, typically requires very long periods of time, while the knowledge about an increased risk immediately creates a high demand for action.

SUMMARY

Therefore, we propose a risk-adjusted prevention concept that is based on the best current evidence making needed and appropriate preventive measures available, and which is constantly evaluated through outcome evaluation, and continuously improved based on these results. We further discuss the structural and procedural requirements as well as legal and socioeconomical aspects relevant for the implementation of this concept.

The current status of risk-stratified breast screening

Apart from high-risk scenarios such as the presence of highly penetrant genetic mutations, breast screening typically comprises mammography or tomosynthesis strategies defined by age. However, age-based screening ignores the range of breast cancer risks that individual women may possess and is antithetical to the ambitions of personalised early detection. Whilst screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality, this is at the risk of potentially significant harms including overdiagnosis with overtreatment, and psychological morbidity associated with false positives. In risk-stratified screening, individualised risk assessment may inform screening intensity/interval, starting age, imaging modality used, or even decisions not to screen. However, clear evidence for its benefits and harms needs to be established. In this scoping review, the authors summarise the established and emerging evidence regarding several critical dependencies for successful risk-stratified breast screening: risk prediction model performance, epidemiological studies, retrospective clinical evaluations, health economic evaluations and qualitative research on feasibility and acceptability. Family history, breast density or reproductive factors are not on their own suitable for precisely estimating risk and risk prediction models increasingly incorporate combinations of demographic, clinical, genetic and imaging-related parameters. Clinical evaluations of risk-stratified screening are currently limited. Epidemiological evidence is sparse, and randomised trials only began in recent years.

Family history of breast cancer as a second primary malignancy in relatives: a nationwide cohort study

Background

With the increasing number of breast cancer (BC) diagnosed as a second primary malignancy after a first primary non-breast cancer (BCa-2), it is unclear about the familial risk of BC among women with a first-degree relative (FDR, parents or siblings) affected by a BCa-2.

Methods

In this Swedish nationwide cohort study, 5315 women with a FDR affected by BCa-2 and 115,048 women with a FDR affected by BC as the first primary cancer (BCa-1) were followed for the first primary invasive BC diagnosis. Relative risk (RR) of BC was estimated through Poisson regression by using 2,743,777 women without a family history of cancer as reference. The risk was stratified by the diagnostic age of BC in FDR, proband type, the time interval between the first primary cancer and BCa-2 in FDR as well as the site of first primary cancer diagnosed in FDR before BCa-2. We also calculated the cumulative incidence of BC from birth to a specific age for the three groups.

Results

The cumulative incidence from birth to age 70 was 10% among women with a family history of BCa-2. The RR of BC with a family history of BCa-2 (RR, 1.68, 95%CI, 1.49 to 1.88) was comparable to that with BCa-1 (1.68, 1.63 to 1.73). The risk was largely consistent irrespective of proband type. The age of onset of BCa-2 in FDR (RR _early-onset, 1.72 vs. RR _late-onset 1.67) had less influence on the risk compared to BCa-1 in FDR (1.89 vs. 1.63). In the analysis stratified by the time between the first primary cancer and BCa-2 in relatives, the risks were largely similar. For the site of first primary cancer diagnosed in FDR before BCa-2, the increased BC risk was found in women whose FDRs were diagnosed with first primary gastric, colorectal, endometrial, ovarian, nervous system and endocrine gland cancers, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Conclusions

Women with a family history of BCa-2 have a similar overall BC risk as those with a family history of BCa-1. The risk varied according to the site of first primary cancer diagnosed in FDR before BCa-2.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08925-y.

Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Colonoscopy Screening According to Individuals' Risk Profiles

BACKGROUND

It remains unknown whether the benefit of colonoscopy screening against colorectal cancer (CRC) and the optimal age to start screening differ by CRC risk profile.

METHODS

Among 75 873 women and 42 875 men, we defined a CRC risk score (0-8) based on family history, aspirin, height, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, and diet. We calculated colonoscopy screening-associated hazard ratios and absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for CRC incidence and mortality and age-specific CRC cumulative incidence according to risk score. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

During a median of 26 years of follow-up, we documented 2407 CRC cases and 874 CRC deaths. Although the screening-associated hazard ratio did not vary by risk score, the ARRs in multivariable-adjusted 10-year CRC incidence more than doubled for individuals with scores 6-8 (ARR = 0.34%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.26% to 0.42%) compared with 0-2 (ARR = 0.15%, 95% CI = 0.12% to 0.18%, Ptrend < .001). Similar results were found for CRC mortality (ARR = 0.22%, 95% CI = 0.21% to 0.24% vs 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.07% to 0.08%, Ptrend < .001). The ARR in mortality of distal colon and rectal cancers was fourfold higher for scores 6-8 than 0-2 (distal colon cancer: ARR = 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.07% to 0.08% vs 0.02%, 95% CI = 0.02% to 0.02%, Ptrend < .001; rectal cancer: ARR = 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.08% to 0.09% vs 0.02%, 95% CI = 0.02% to 0.03%, Ptrend < .001). When using age 45 years as the benchmark to start screening, individuals with risk scores of 0-2, 3, 4, 5, and 6-8 attained the threshold CRC risk level (10-year cumulative risk of 0.47%) at age 51 years, 48 years, 45 years, 42 years, and 38 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The absolute benefit of colonoscopy screening is more than twice higher for individuals with the highest than lowest CRC risk profile. Individuals with a high- and low-risk profile may start screening up to 6-7 years earlier and later, respectively, than the recommended age of 45 years.

Risk of prostate cancer in relatives of prostate cancer patients in Sweden: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based guidance for starting ages of screening for first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with prostate cancer (PCa) to prevent stage III/IV or fatal PCa is lacking in current PCa screening guidelines. We aimed to provide evidence for risk-adapted starting age of screening for relatives of patients with PCa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this register-based nationwide cohort study, all men (aged 0 to 96 years at baseline) residing in Sweden who were born after 1931 along with their fathers were included. During the follow-up (1958 to 2015) of 6,343,727 men, 88,999 were diagnosed with stage III/IV PCa or died of PCa. The outcomes were defined as the diagnosis of stage III/IV PCa or death due to PCa, stratified by age at diagnosis. Using 10-year cumulative risk curves, we calculated risk-adapted starting ages of screening for men with different constellations of family history of PCa. The 10-year cumulative risk of stage III/IV or fatal PCa in men at age 50 in the general population (a common recommended starting age of screening) was 0.2%. Men with ≥2 FDRs diagnosed with PCa reached this screening level at age 41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 39 to 44), i.e., 9 years earlier, when the youngest one was diagnosed before age 60; at age 43 (41 to 47), i.e., 7 years earlier, when ≥2 FDRs were diagnosed after age 59, which was similar to that of men with 1 FDR diagnosed before age 60 (41 to 45); and at age 45 (44 to 46), when 1 FDR was diagnosed at age 60 to 69 and 47 (46 to 47), when 1 FDR was diagnosed after age 69. We also calculated risk-adapted starting ages for other benchmark screening ages, such as 45, 55, and 60 years, and compared our findings with those in the guidelines. Study limitations include the lack of genetic data, information on lifestyle, and external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides practical information for risk-tailored starting ages of PCa screening based on nationwide cancer data with valid genealogical information. Our clinically relevant findings could be used for evidence-based personalized PCa screening guidance and supplement current PCa screening guidelines for relatives of patients with PCa.

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries

This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

Risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening in women with a family history of ovarian or other cancers: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of evidence-based recommendations for the age at which women with a family history of cancers other than breast cancer should start breast cancer screening.

METHODS

Using Swedish family cancer data sets, the authors conducted a nationwide cohort study including 5,099,172 Swedish women born after 1931 (follow-up, 1958-2015). Accounting for calendar time, they calculated the relative risk of breast cancer for women with a family history of a discordant cancer in 1 first-degree relative. Furthermore, the authors used 10-year cumulative risk to determine the ages at which women with a family history of discordant cancer reached risk thresholds at which women in the general population were recommended to start breast cancer screening.

RESULTS

A family history of cancer at 15 sites was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Among women younger than 50 years, the highest risk of breast cancer was observed for those with a family history of ovarian cancer (standardized incidence ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.64). In these women, the risk of breast cancer associated with a family history at other cancer sites ranged from 1.08-fold for prostate cancer to 1.18-fold for liver cancer. When breast cancer screening was recommended to be started at the age of 50 years for the general population, women with 1 first-degree relative with ovarian cancer attained the threshold risk for screening at the age of 46 years. Women with a family history of other discordant cancers did not reach the risk thresholds for screening at younger ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Many cancers showed familial associations with breast cancer, but women with a family history of these cancers (except for ovarian cancer) did not reach risk thresholds for screening at younger ages.

Integrating Clinical and Polygenic Factors to Predict Breast Cancer Risk in Women Undergoing Genetic Testing

PURPOSE

Screening and prevention decisions for women at increased risk of developing breast cancer depend on genetic and clinical factors to estimate risk and select appropriate interventions. Integration of polygenic risk into clinical breast cancer risk estimators can improve discrimination. However, correlated genetic effects must be incorporated carefully to avoid overestimation of risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A novel Fixed-Stratified method was developed that accounts for confounding when adding a new factor to an established risk model. A combined risk score (CRS) of an 86-single-nucleotide polymorphism polygenic risk score and the Tyrer-Cuzick v7.02 clinical risk estimator was generated with attenuation for confounding by family history. Calibration and discriminatory accuracy of the CRS were evaluated in two independent validation cohorts of women of European ancestry (N = 1,615 and N = 518). Discrimination for remaining lifetime risk was examined by age-adjusted logistic regression. Risk stratification with a 20% risk threshold was compared between CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick in an independent clinical cohort (N = 32,576).

RESULTS

Simulation studies confirmed that the Fixed-Stratified method produced accurate risk estimation across patients with different family history. In both validation studies, CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick were significantly associated with breast cancer. In an analysis with both CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick as predictors of breast cancer, CRS added significant discrimination independent of that captured by Tyrer-Cuzick (P < 10-11 in validation 1; P < 10-7 in validation 2). In an independent cohort, 18% of women shifted breast cancer risk categories from their Tyrer-Cuzick-based risk compared with risk estimates by CRS.

CONCLUSION

Integrating clinical and polygenic factors into a risk model offers more effective risk stratification and supports a personalized genomic approach to breast cancer screening and prevention.

Risk of colorectal cancer in patients with diabetes mellitus: A Swedish nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence is increasing among young adults below screening age, despite the effectiveness of screening in older populations. Individuals with diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of early-onset CRC. We aimed to determine how many years earlier than the general population patients with diabetes with/without family history of CRC reach the threshold risk at which CRC screening is recommended to the general population.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A nationwide cohort study (follow-up:1964-2015) involving all Swedish residents born after 1931 and their parents was carried out using record linkage of Swedish Population Register, Cancer Registry, National Patient Register, and Multi-Generation Register. Of 12,614,256 individuals who were followed between 1964 and 2015 (51% men; age range at baseline 0-107 years), 162,226 developed CRC, and 559,375 developed diabetes. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves were used to draw conclusions about how many years earlier patients with diabetes reach the 10-year cumulative risks of CRC in 50-year-old men and women (most common age of first screening), which were 0.44% and 0.41%, respectively. Diabetic patients attained the screening level of CRC risk earlier than the general Swedish population. Men with diabetes reached 0.44% risk at age 45 (5 years earlier than the recommended age of screening). In women with diabetes, the risk advancement was 4 years. Risk was more pronounced for those with additional family history of CRC (12-21 years earlier depending on sex and benchmark starting age of screening). The study limitations include lack of detailed information on diabetes type, lifestyle factors, and colonoscopy data.

CONCLUSIONS

Using high-quality registers, this study is, to our knowledge, the first one that provides novel evidence-based information for risk-adapted starting ages of CRC screening for patients with diabetes, who are at higher risk of early-onset CRC than the general population.